MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Is UFC Vegas 55's Ketlen Vieira A Live Underdog Against Holly Holm?

Episode Date: May 18, 2022

Conner Burks and Jed Meshew dive deep into UFC Vegas 55 and throw bets down on nine of the 11 fights on the card, including a surprising bet on the main event fight between Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira, and +1400 flyer bet on an underdog special. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. I am Connor Birx, and we are back for another episode of No Betts Bard. This time we are talking about UFC Fight Night Home versus Villera, UFC Vegas 55. Whatever you prefer to call it, it's going down on Saturday. Luckily, thank the gods. We're back to the 4 p.m. Eastern start time this week. Best news that I got all week.

I am joined alongside by my co-host, Jed Michoud. Jed. How we feeling, man? I got a bone to pick with you today because we're going to get into it in just a second. Obviously, we've got to recap our previous week. And I blame my failings last week entirely on you. This is all your fault. And I just want to be as crystal clear as I can. I accept no responsibility.

Listeners, you were all here last week. You heard it. The man talked me out of a great idea that would have cashed easily, easy cash, and denied us, you know, plus two units and I blame it all on you. Here's my argument against that, is that you didn't present it as should I bet on Ryan Span? And I was like, no, no, no, no, no, don't bet on Ryan Span. You said, please present to me an argument and talk me out of betting on Ryan Span.

Again, I stand by what I said. This is your fault. You made me be reasonable. I asked you to make me be reasonable, but that's not the point. The show, the name of the show is No Betts Barred. Because we just take all bets, all bets, all action, baby, all gas, no breaks. That's what we're supposed to be about. And then you do this to me.

And Ryan Span easily submits Moldovia and Joel Edgerton. And now I don't get the plus 195 profit. And I got to say, it hurts. That hurts me personally. Yeah, I actually, I had a nice laugh when Ryan Span got the submission done on Saturday night. I also have some regrets. I did not bet on Andre Petrowski. I did not fade my arch nemesis of Nick Maximov, and that would have been an easy, easy cast, just like Ryan Span.

Imagine if we had been really cool. Imagine if we had just like, there's a universe out there where there was an episode of No Betts Bar where we were just the coolest guys on the planet. and you were like, I'm going to take Ryan Span round one submission. I said, I'm going to take Andre Petroski round one submission. And then instead of the Kia Parlay, we were doing the submission round one parlay

and it paid out like plus 15,000. Oh, just an infinite number of dollars. And you know the worst part for you? The next time Maximov fights, you can't fade him because he's going to win. He is going to win next time. You had an opportunity. You talked all about it.

and you did not take advantage of it. Yeah, Maximov is, he's going to be the crutch. He's going to be my just worst betting enemy as long as he remains in the UFC. And I could see that happening for quite a while. But yeah, there is a universe out there where we did do that. I just saw Dr. Strange. I know how multiverse is work now. So, yes, there is a universe where we were really cool and we did that parlay last week.

I know how multiverses work. Yeah, and I know how they work now. You're an expert. A expert than multiverses. Slight profit for me last week. I don't know, your final tally. How do we end up? I finished down just under a unit.

I did not have a successful week from a total number standpoint. A lot of those flyers, I took, you know, the prop flyers, Alampa Treat by submission, Smoker by submission, obviously in cash, but we're not putting big units on that, so it's okay. As you recall, I had Maxmov in a parlay, which busted the parlay with the Chukagian Hibas goes to decision. But the benefit of it being because that was the first try of the night, I just immediately went and bet on Chikaga and Hibbos goes to decision. I love it. I love it.

Which creeped me back to losing just about half a unit-ish, between half a unit and a unit. So not a great result, especially because, I mean, one, half a unit. had I bet on Ryan Spann because I had a teammate, a partner, a friend who wanted to support me, we'd be doing great. And I felt okay about where Alexander Rackich was. And then obviously that made of an injury. Incredibly unfortunate injury. He's coming off a really strong second round.

I thought that that would have been replicable for him moving forward. I was feeling great about my bet after that second round and then all of a sudden his knee exploded. So, you know, sometimes it happens. but we stemmed the bleeding. It wasn't too bad a week for me. And you can't really complain about that on these types of cards. If you walk away with a profit, it's definitely a big W in the win column. Finish up a couple units on UFCs, which is what we talk about here.

I keep going back to the window for Bellator, and it just keeps biting me in the ass. I don't know why I continued to do it, but I'm sure for Bellator 282, Gagard Musassi's fighting, I'm sure I'll head back to the window for that one as well. and I'm sure I'll probably lose units on that Bellator as well. I mean, you know, Bellator is tough because a lot of big favorites, a lot of tasty favorites. And every once in a while, you know, MMA is MMA. Crazy things happen. Sometimes Alex Belizey doesn't beat Yol Romero.

I mean, nine times out of ten, obviously he would have won that fight. Nine times out of ten, usually. Just happened to be he didn't. Yep. Yeah, easily. Yeah, Bellator is tough. So that was last week. about the past. We're on to the future.

The next event. The past is for cowards. Exactly. The past is the past is the past. What the future is is UFC Vegas 55 home Viera. I mean, this is the pinnacle. This is as good as it gets. It's the last card before a quick break before we get into the summer. So let's dive into it. Let's start with the main event. It is a women's bantam weight bout.

It'll be five rounds. If it goes that long, holy home going up against Ketland Vieira right now home on Draft King sitting at minus 250, Viera, sitting at plus 200. You're taking a side in this one. I am, or you taking a side? I am taking a side in this one, and I hope we're on the same side because I'm really going to look like an idiot if you're on the opposite and you win because I'm going to be backing Holly home money line.

Oh, so one, this is important because we didn't recap this from last week. Yes. Zephyl lost. I did win the Civil War. You did do that, yes. Vivian Arrugia did in fact successfully to beat Andre Lee and with all the other stuff that happened. I feel like we all wanted her to.

Yeah, pretty emphatically. By halfway through that fight. I had the over one and a half in a parley and it got a little dicey on whether or not that one was going to go to the distance. I also stole that parley piece from you for a... We don't call it stealing around here. You're just using it, man. We're just winning together.

That's all we're doing. I did. You just... We are and you sold me. I was like, that's a great parlay piece. if I'm going to throw a little bit down, sure, I'll add that in. But yeah, so we're about to have Civil War 2-10-0 because I'm taking the underdog here. I'd love to hear your thoughts on Holly Home before I kind of expand my mind because mine's pretty short of,

I just think that this line is off. I will not be in any way surprised if Holly Home wins this fight. But there are a lot of red flags for me here. And so, you know, I don't know what line you had you were looking at. I have Vieira plus 200 right now. So, you know, 35, whatever, 33, whatever that win percentage is. And, you know, just a couple of stats that throughout you. She's 2 and O as an underdog, which always love that, cash in those dog tickets.

But the big ones for me are, it makes sense that Holly Home is a favorite. It makes sense that she wins this fight. But Holly Home is 40, and she hasn't fought in close to two years, over 18 months at this point. You know, Vieira's 10 years younger. I think that performance coming off against Misha Tate, she is starting to really hit her stride. And so the most obvious outcome is that Holly Home sort of uses a range movement, sets a good enough distance.

If they get into clinches, she just physically overpowers Vieira and kind of wins a very Holly home decision. But I just, I don't know, Holly's getting old, much younger fighter, the big long layoff, and a layoff with some problems in it too. You know, a knee injury and then a hydrofrenosis. She talked with Ariel about that. I still don't think I understand what that means. But it doesn't sound good.

It definitely doesn't sound good. It sounds like it could be really serious. I mean, yeah, pretty much everything that you're saying are the concerns that I have for Holly home losing the fight. She's obviously 10 years of year as senior. She is coming off that year and seven month long layoff. But the reason that I'm backing her, I mean, the last time she was out against, I Reno Aldana was probably the best we've seen her in a minute.

She lands a career high, 154 significant strikes, gets five takedowns in that one. She made easy work in that fight now. You know, that was when she was, what, 38 at the time? And we've also seen Keleuiluio fight Alana, and it did not go that same way for her. It didn't. I don't love doing MMA math. I mean, actually, that's a lot. Oh, you got to.

I love doing MMMA math, and I love when it works out, but I don't love relying on. it but like Ali home it's like what you just said I mean she's going to have the boxing advantage in this situation I mean she showed an improved ground game against al-dana obviously she's great in the clench plus just like the biggest thing is the experience and the level of competition that home has I mean if you look at her five losses over her career four of them have come in title fights and the other one is to Valentina Shevchenko so like she is only losing to the pinnacle of this sport but I will go back to yeah 40 to 30 I just think that home is the better fighter in this situation.

And if she comes out healthy and not just like a completely broken down 40-year-old, I think she's going to be able to get it done over Vieira. I know you mentioned you think Vierra is hitting her stride. Mishita, who I think is a different Mishita, Tate that Holly Holm fought a few years ago. It was a very close fight. Like it was a 48, 47 across the board. It was a close decision in that one. I mean, it is.

Obviously, these are very different stuff. matchups. And again, like I said, I will not be in any way surprised. I think Holm should be the favorite. For me, this fight feels a lot closer to 60-40, you know, inching towards 50-50 than the 70-30 that it basically is right now from an odds perspective. And I also, sometimes I get dumb brain, you know, sometimes I get, and right now I have a dumb brain where I'm seeing the future.

And in the future, I see a world where we look back at Ketland-Vier's. at kind of her career arc, her wiki page, and say, oh, yeah, this is where she started beating the old people in the division. She beat Misha Tate, then she beat Holly Holm. This is where she starts putting together a run on the back system people who are past their prime. This thing happens all the time in MMA. And I think that there's really a possibility. Also, just for one piece of technical. One thing that I do really like about her chances here, or at least what I think will make this a competitive outing,

is Holly Holie Holme, great boxer, going to be inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame this year. But in M.MA, she really does a lot of, like, awkward Carlos Condit-esque blitzes towards people. And historically, people have just kind of run away from those or moved out of it and haven't really caught her for it. Vieira, a lot of flaws, but she will sit down on counters when someone charges in on her. And so I think that is, frankly, a really good opportunity for her to score points. and then, you know, it will be, she will need takedown.

She will need to force grappling exchanges. But like I said, I just think this fight's closer to 6040 or 50-50 than the odds have it. So I won't be surprised if it's a losing bet, but I'm going to take the value. Yeah, I mean, I can appreciate that. I can appreciate that you think she has a better chance than the odds are playing. So you're going to play the value. And if it works out, it's going to be a fantastic situation for you. And you're looking into the future?

The future. The Twitter. I can see it now. Wow. They really made a 40-year-old Holly home, minus 200 favorite, minus 250 favorite. Coming off a knee injury and something else that sounds. Yeah, Hydro-Higlipat. Soces over there.

I also do a parlay piece similar to what we did last week with Andrea Lee. I like the over two and a half. I hope this is the same. Over two and a half? Yes, because I have that as well. Let's go. Over two and a half. Yeah, I mean, these women, they're not strangers to the, going to the score cards,

and then in 20 combined UFC fights, they have a combined three finishes in their wins. So I just don't really see one of them getting an early stoppage here. I actually probably think this one goes to a decision, but since we're parlaying it up, I'll make it a little safer. What did you get that line? Minus 400. Yeah, it's about where I'm at.

So, yep, I feel exactly the same way on you as you just articulated. I think this probably does go to a decision, but over minus 1.5 was used to like minus 700 or something like that. Like crazy. But 2.5 is, that just felt like the sweet spot. So I also have that tucked into a parlay. All right, sweet. So head-to-head bed number two happens in the main event this week.

And actually, we might have more head-the-heads. We're going to have to find out as we move along here. We're in agreeing something over 2.5 is a good parlay piece. Let's go to the co-main, a welterweight bout. Santiago, Ponsonibio going up against Michel Pajara. So I actually don't have a bet on this one. I surprisingly, after watching the tape, I leaned to the dog.

I leaned to Santiago a little bit. This could be one of the best fights on the card. I mean, they're exciting on both sides. It's two pretty high-volume strikers. You know, they both low-key got finishing ability. But yeah, I just think Ponsonibio, I mean, he's fought some really tough competition. He gave Jeff Neal a very tough time last time out.

And I think there's going to be a close competitive fight. And when it goes to the scorecards, which I think it probably will, I would like to be holding a dog ticket in what should be a pretty close fight. So I don't have a side. I do have a small prop bet, just a value bet here. I came into this when I looked at this on paper. So I'm going to peel the carton back. My sort of betting process is the first thing I ever do is I just look,

before I look at the odds, I just look at every fight on the card, and I maybe I pull up kind of past opponents, past records, sort of just skim through, and I set my line for it. Like, all right, this is first glance without looking, dive into tape, anything. Where do I feel like this should be? And this card was really difficult because I got very close to hitting all of the lines. Like there was, there were very few, like, major discrepancies.

You know, within 20, 30 points. on either side. But when this was one where I had discrepancies, I thought Ponziabio should be like a minus 140. He's sitting at a slight underdog value right now. I was like, I don't know, just kind of off the top of my head. That's where I felt. And then I watched the tape and was like, no, I was wrong.

I think that this line is pretty close to spot on. It does feel a little dogger passy to me because I think that's pretty close to a 50-50 fight. And, you know, but Ponziabio is not. even a big enough dog to really make that that that that line worth it at plus 100 that's just paying you even odds basically so I and I just have a lot of questions because you talked about this being a really exciting fight it still could be Michelle Pahey used to be the most fun dude in the world and he turned into a much more reserved fighter that's better for him long term and I actually think that will serve him better here but I like it's possible that that does backfire the

Nizbio is just able to kind of more consistently outwork him. My biggest concerns here are that Michelle Paheia for his struggles with wrestling occasionally. It's not like Ponsinibio has been a huge grappler. Michelle Paheia also struggles with cardio, but Ponsonibio that's not been like a strength of his. It hasn't been a huge weakness, but he's not a dude who's putting a pace on and winning down the line. And we have seen Ponsonivio kind of just get out-athleted. you know, the leech kind of just blew his doors off. And I know that was Ponzi's first fight in like two years, whatever,

but that is still very concerning about having action on either side of the ticket. So, you know, as an underdog Ponzi, he would be a 60% win rate. So that's also speaking to me. I think I'm with you. If I was going to have a side, I'd want dog or pass here. But for me, instead, I decided to take a small prop on fight ends by K.O. or TKO. I got a plus 165. It's 27% win probability. And I think there's a real opportunity that this fight is just two dudes chuck and hammers. That Pahia goes back to a little bit of the Wildman.

And I mean, he, he is a very, very violent dude. And so is Ponsonibio. And so I kind of think there's just a big opportunity for this fight to be stopped. You know, they've got 25 combined KOs between them. And so not a big play, but I just sort of wanted to have action here. And I do think it's more likely that this fight doesn't see the final score cards. And if that's the case, I really doubt either dudes tap in the other. Yeah, I was just about to say, like, I like that because if you were going to play a fight doesn't go the distance, you might as well play this KL1 because I highly doubt that it's going

to be an end-ins submission. For me, this is one I'm just going to sit back and enjoy mentally prepared for our head-to-head in the main event during this one and just enjoy this fight as it goes along so I won't have any play for the co-man. Fair enough, you know. Sometimes you just don't like to have as much fun as I do. That's a good way to pressure me into it. I like that.

All right, let's keep it rolling. A middleweight bout still on the main card here. Chee-Ingu-Kanu going up against Dusko Todorovic. I mean, who is it, Brennan Fitzgerald, John Anick. This one's going to be a tough name fight. I know they're pros, but these two back-to-back are kind of tough to work through. Not the easiest last name. No, and Joe Kuanis is easy, man.

Mainly because there's been another Gidi's brother, I'm pretty sure, is a relatively known fighter. I have a side here, do you? I do have a side. I cannot imagine we aren't aligned on this one. I would be pretty bummed out if you weren't, because it's one of my. I really, like, I'm really looking forward to watching this fight and hopefully cashing this play. I'm taking cheat.

Yeah, yeah, for sure. I mean, I, well, I was so excited in case I was wrong, because if you were, like, really excited by Nusco Tudorovich, I was excited to hear your argumentation there. Yeah, I mean, this should be a pretty sick fight. Like, I mean, two guys that can just stand in there and bang, like they can throw handmakers. they have knockout power. I mean, I think for me personally, when I was making this bet, just going back and watching the tape,

I mean, obviously, Chi looked impressive the last time out against M.A.B. Mark Andre Beeryl. I mean, he knocked him out in however many seconds. It did not take long. I thought he looked good on the Contender Series, too. He's obviously got huge power. He's going to be bigger here. He's got the six-inch reach advantage.

I think he's going to be quicker. I think he's, like I just mentioned, he's got the more powerful striking. I think he can manage the range. Well, Dusko, when he does that pressure fighting, when he comes in, he doesn't really move his head off the center line much. He comes in there and he gets hit. And I don't think Cheedy is a guy that you want to get hit by.

And I think that Cheaty's probably going to knock him out. Yeah, I think that everything you said is I am in agreeance with, as you would say. It is, I think that there is, in Joquamani by K. I have a little bit of interest in. on top of it because I think that's very likely and you can get that at plus 145 and I think that that's just really plausible because Todorovich he is at a massive size disadvantage here I think you said like you said he doesn't really move his head out of the way that much fights with his hand super low and relies a lot on head movement to not get

hit that's really tough to pull off against a guy who has like a 10 inch reach advantage or something insane like Chitty As here. You know, if Todorovich can score takedowns, maybe there's a path there. He has a Brazilian jiu-sat-butt, but for me, this feels like these are going to be two dudes. Chuck and Mitz, and I think Njokawani is a substantially better striker. So I have Injokwani as the other parlay piece to the Holmes Vieira over two and a half. So I parlayed those two together, got it to about a minus. 130. I also have both of those. I took a page out of your book. I did I did the stack, the

parley stack where I just added another piece and ran the bet back, which we'll get to a little later down the line. So I've got Injoquani, I think you could take him straight. That's plenty of value, but I decided to pay him in a parley. And I have a little quarter bet on Injoquana by Kio at plus 145. Yeah, I might get involved with that Injoquoani at plus 145. I guess my only concern to play the devil's advocate here is Dusko does come in with that pressure, turns it into a brawl, they're just throwing haymakers, someone gets caught, and the person that gets caught is cheating. Because he has been knocked out in the past.

It's not like he has, you know, a blockhead. So that is my one concern. But I feel good about our cheating bet. I like cheating in this situation. Yeah, same. Totally the same. All right. in agreements this time. I'm a big fan of that. That one's going to be fun to watch. I'm very much

looking forward to that fight. Let's keep it rolling. Main cards, straw weight bout, the people's main event. It is Pollyanna Biana going up against Tabitha Ricci. This for me, kind of like the co-main. I see this one as just a coin flip fight. It's obviously shown in the odds. I just don't know who's going to win this fight. I don't know who's going to win. I don't know if it's going to go to a decision. I don't know if it's going to end inside the distance. Is it going to be Viana getting a round one arm bar? Is it going to be reachie by decision? I really don't know. And I am just going to stay away from this fight. That's a much smarter man than I am. That's what you are. I can't. I I like to have action down. And I spent this may be the fight. I spent the most time

debating whether I should pull the trigger on this or not because everything in my head is telling me Ritchie is a very very solid bet even at slight favorite odds there's one glaring concern I have but I was able to talk myself out of it and so I did take Ritchie I've got her at minus 120 it's a 55% win problem

and I think that that's I think that there's there's a good value in that because I really like her chances to win this fighting in Spalena Viana. Both women are primarily grapplers, but Viana has been submitted before by lesser grapplers. She gets a lot of praise from the commentary booth about being a multiple-time Brazilian champion at Brazilian jitsu, which is not sneezing at that, but Ritchie is, I think, a better grappler.

She's a more accomplished grappler. She got second place in Mundialz at the brown belt level, both in Guy and No Ghi, like that's, that's some really top shelf stuff. I think it has shown in her fighting that she is better on the floor. I also just think she's a better striker. Vianna is not terrible on the feet, but Ritchie, you know, has a also a Muay background, trained a lot in Maitai, and I think she is much faster. I think she has a lot more pop in her strikes. And so kind of for all those reasons, my assumption here is that Tabitha Ritchie can win in either phase. You know, I mean, Hannah Seifers sort of dinged up Pollyanna Viana on the feet.

I think Ritchie, similar build and much more athletic than Cifers. So I feel like there's an opportunity for that. And again, for the success on the ground. My major concern here is there's a clear size disparity. You know, Viana is not small for the division, and Ritchie is functional. in Adamweight who the UFC doesn't cater to that. But overall, I think the edge in athleticism, the edge in talent, I'm just going to ride it. I'm going to assume that Viana isn't able to parlay being bigger and not as good everywhere to a victory.

So probably a dumb bet. I probably should simply have just not. Or it's going to be really cool when you cash. I mean, I considered Ritchie. I looked at that line for a while, sort of like you. but the thing that talked me off was the size disparity and just the unknowns with it. So I don't really blame you. I mean, it's always cool when you get the coin flip matchup and you actually win the bet.

So I will be cheering for you. I'm a great teammate. I'll be rooting from afar. I love that. And I, what I wanted, because this was one where I had my pre-fight evaluation or my pre-dive evaluation, was that Ritchie would be like a minus 140, minus 150 favorite. obviously not quite that big, so that got me up. And then when I realized that maybe this is a little tougher, maybe this isn't where I want,

this is a fight I really wanted to get a prop bed in on two find, but I just can't feel confident that Ritchie's going to win by decision because Viana has been tapped by worse fighters. I mean, and that's like Ritchie is a better grappler, I think, full stop. And Veronica Macedo armbard Viana, like while the commentary team was saying, well, this is ridiculous. she's never going to pull that off. And it just happened.

So I got too scared to play a Ritchie by decision prop, which I think is the other bet I was considering. So I just decided I'd take the juice, give me Ritchie straight up, and, you know, we'll hope for a good day. Yeah, I miss, like, because I looked into the props as well, I missed a line it. The over two and a half opened at minus 325, which was, that was pretty egregious. It's plummeted back to minus 160. Had I seen the under 2.5 at plus 250, I would have had to hit that and hope for a submission on either side. Very possible. Yeah, I just don't know what, I just can't feel confident about it going to a decision or going the distance in this one.

So we're all cheering for the reachy bet from afar. We're going to support Jed. We're going to be a good teammate. And we're going to keep it moving here. The final fight, I guess the first fight of the main card, the final one that we're going to go over. it's a middleweight bout. Eric Ander's going up against June Young Park. Right now, June Young Park minus 205.

Eric Aners plus 160. I just have to get out in front of this. One, I'm sorry. This is another one that I don't have a bet on. I'm not forcing anything here. I do have a few bets on the prelims. Don't worry. Two, neither of us as Georgia Bulldogs here,

as graduates of the University of Georgia can bet on Eric Anders with a good conscience. Former Alabama football player, I just can't do it. Yeah. I mean, I do not have action on this fight. And a part of me does not have action because I refuse to bet on Eric Anders. And also, this is just, this fight is the definition of a, don't touch it to me. Like, any outcome, any outcome is possible.

Yes. Yes. Anders is a better athlete, but Park is a more successful fighter, probably. I mean, Park can take him down and sort of sit on him. part also gets wild and gets into brawls. I mean... The Gregor Hadriguez fight. I mean, like I know he lost, but he had Rodriguez hurt.

Like, it looked like... Rodriguez was about to go out. I had a bet on Robocop, Gregory Rodriguez, and then he comes back and gets the knockout. Like, yes, he does have a very brawling style. Yeah, so Super cannot fight smart. Anderick Andrews hit's really hard and kind of succeeds in brawls. So, I mean, Andrews is going to have a huge size advantage.

And I think we saw that physical, that physicality of Hodriguez gave PJ Y some problems. So there's just a whole host of things that I don't feel confident about, not the least of which is Park has never lost as a favorite. And Anders has never cashed as an unctrine. Wow. That's a nice little step. There is. Yeah, that is. Because it's felt a little bit like a dog or pass.

And then I was like, I can't put my money on Eric Anders. And I don't feel bad. This is not a Ryan Span one where I'm trying. trying to talk myself out of betting on Ryan's band. This is, I just, I don't, I don't have any interest in betting on Eric Anders. I, I'm with you. I think, I think anything can happen in this situation. I guess, you know, if I was going to have to do it, I would lean,

uh, Parks Way. But I just, I don't know. It's a great nickname matchup, your boy versus, uh, the Iron Turtle. But other than that, I'm just going to sit back and watch it. Yeah, this is a, a full pass for me. All right. Let's go on to the, uh, The prelim.

So this one, to start it off, is interesting. Joseph Holmes going up against Alan Amadowski. So I just want to say this. I tweeted this out earlier today. I took Holmes inside the distance at plus 250. It's currently sitting at that at Caesar's sports book. It's still there. I want to say that they made a mistake in creating that line

because Amadowski is plus 110 inside the distance. That's what Joseph Holmes is at every other book. I don't know how good this information is if you don't have access to Caesar's sportsbook, obviously. Like, I'm not overly confident in that, but it's a minus 200 favorite who has won every single one of his fights by finish going at plus 250 inside the distance. So that is one bet that I have on this fight.

I do have another one, but I just had to get that out of the way. I can't even say for certain that Caesar's is going to honor it. They could be like, oh, wow, we messed that up. But it's been sitting there for two days now, and it is at time of recording. still just sitting there. Wow. I'm most impressed by the fact that you have multiple bets down on this right.

So I'm going to, I'm going to let you play ISO ball here. I'm going to clear out because to me, this is another, just don't be involved. Yeah, sure. I mean, Joseph Holmes is, he's not a great fighter. That's exactly. Alan Omidovsky, I think I would go as far to say he is a bad fighter. I mean, first of all, he's coming back off of a. two-year, nine-month layoff in this one, after getting knocked out by John Phillips in 14 seconds.

And then his other fight in the UFC, other than the 14-second knockout, he got outstruck by Christoph Jocko, 43-6, and Jock went four-for-four-four on takedowns and racked up 10 minutes of control time, another not-great performance, 30, 26s, and 25s across the board. So in two fights, he lands 0.5 strikes a minute, and he absorbs 3.14, and he has a 0% take-dum. down defense, just about as bad as you can do in two fights. I'm honestly surprised that he's coming back. Now, I mentioned it Holmes has not looked fantastic, but he at least competed last time out against Jamie Pickett. He's also going to have a massive, massive size advantage in this one, six inches of heights, six inches of reach. I mean, unless Amadovsky has made like significant

improvements during this long layoff, like I think Holmes is going to be able to go out there and get this done, whether it's by knockout, whether it's by submission. Amadowski really has no ground game, we've seen Holmes get I think five of his wins by submission. He also does have knockout power. He's going to have that huge reach advantage. So, I mean, to me, the plus $2.50 is definitely worth it. My other bet in this one is fight does not go the distance. I use that as a parlay piece at minus $2.40 because regardless of who wins it,

15 pro wins between the two. Every single one of them is by finish. If they're going to win, these guys typically win by finish, Omadowski has an erratic style where he brings in a ton of pressure, just swings for the fences. that also, if he doesn't win, causes him to make mistakes. So I like that the fight doesn't go the distance because there is a chance. He did make improvements in this almost three-year layoff because I was looking at his IG. He's hanging out with Hamzad at Swedish All-Stars,

hanging out with Sean Strickland and Chris Curtis at Extreme Couture. So who knows, maybe he did make improvements. I'm eating crow come Saturday night. But I think the most likely outcome is that Joseph Holmes goes in there and finishes Amadovsky. What was that fight doesn't go to a decision line? I grabbed that at minus 240. Yeah, that's still too much juice for me to feel it. Though I think that is, that's a bet I'd feel more competent on

than laying my money on either side of this. But yeah, you know, I don't have... Joseph Holmes' mustache can't talk you into betting on him? No, I mean, his nickname is a lot closer to making me interested into it. Ugly Man is just a hilarious nickname. but yeah no I this was one this was not the Pollyanna viana Tabitha Ritchie this was a very easy oh just don't be involved here here you're you see now now here's the situation you're a smarter man than I yeah this one feels um I look you may well cash this just I did not when

you put it on the dock I was like I am interested to see what he has to say because I have no idea what I would bet in this fight uh yeah we're gonna see what happens Hopefully it's really cool. We just hit both. Joseph Holmes just goes out there, wins inside the distance, and we just hit both of these bets. That would be pretty sweet.

I'm moving for you, especially I have no vested interest, so I'm obviously hoping that every, all success comes your way. You as well. You as well. Let's keep it rolling. It is a heavyweight bout up next.

Jailton Almeda, Jelton Jr., he goes by many names. Going up against Parker Porter, the pride of New Britain, Connecticut, This is an interesting matchup. Jelton Almeda is a man chiseled like a statue. And Parker Porter... A little young man right there.

Parker Porter is not, if we're going to be kind to him here. I mean, he's usually coming in around the heavyweight max, Jelton Almeda, moving up to heavyweight from light heavyweight in this situation. Let's be clear. We're not here to disparage anyone. But when he's coming in at the heavyweight max, it's not because he is Brock Lesnar. You know, that's what we're saying.

Just look up a picture of Parker Parker, Parker Porter. He's a big boy out there. Freudian slit there. It's just what you get it. I mean, Jelton, he's going to be at a weight disadvantage. He's probably going to come in at like 225, not making any cuts. So he's going to be at like, you know, 40 to 50 pounds of weight disadvantage. But for me, watching tape,

I feel like he is going to be coming in at a pretty sizable skill advantage in this situation. I mean, especially when it comes to the ground game. The guy claims he's going to be the Brazilian Kabib. The judges are still out on that one. But I mean, just in his last fight, just watching the tape on that, then on Marquez, who was a big man, he just made him look dumb. Marquez lands zero significant strikes. He immediately takes him down, gets him out of there in the first round.

I mean, he finishes pretty much everyone in the first round. 10 straight wins, 8 in the first round, the other two in the second. And Porter, like, I know he's big and I know he's going to have the weight, but it's like, I don't know how to describe him. Like, he's like a middleweight frame in a max heavyweight buildout. It's a lot, yeah. I mean, so on the flip side, Parker Porter, yeah, he's on a three-fight win streak, but the three fights are Josh Parisian, Chase Sherman, and Alan Bedell.

So I don't know if they're going to be calling the Hall of Fame. Great wins. I don't know if they're going to be calling the Hall of Fame over those three straight wins. Porter, he's also been finished in all five of his losses. He's got one DQ, but in the five real losses, c-oed three times, sub-twice. I'm taking Jelton Almeda inside the distance, grabbed it at minus 190.

Like I said, I'm the chalk man this week. And I'm going to use fight does not go the distance as a parlay piece. I parolid that up with home. Vieira over two and a half. My concern is Porter's insane volume for heavyweight. I mean, he just keeps breaking the record for his volume. Jelton gases out, and Porter just outpoints him the last two rounds. But I'm going to trust that that's not going to happen.

Jelton's going to immediately go for a takedown, use that aggressiveness, use that pressure, and get Porter out of there pretty early. Look, this is a situation where you are probably right, but God could not compel me to put money on this fire. There's just no. If I was going to, I briefly, very, very briefly flirted with a Porterman's by decision line. Like, plus $1,400. It's like plus $1,400.

Because I, look, all credit Talmud, I think he's got a lot of potential. I do not like this move to heavyweight for kind of no real reason. Yes, he is a well-built young man, but he's still going to be much smaller than Parker Porter, and Parker Porter is not a world-beater, but he's proven to be a very tough out. This dude, despite what he, his appearance, has very solid cardio pushes a tremendous pace for heavyweight, and with just, you know, knows how to wrestle. And so if Almeida is going to just come in and, one, the big thing that makes me almost, want to make a bet on Porter here is what we have seen from how made his wrestling is

all the bad parts of Habib like not the good Habib needs to be Brazilian Habib he's shooting from mile outside and getting away with it thus far and maybe he can still do that against parker porter I mean he is a better athlete but park reporter is going to have 40 pounds on him and if he can just get his hips back even a little bit way more difficult to get that takedown and I see a very real world where this is the scenario you said. Almeida just gassed himself out going for takedowns. Even if he gets taken down, can't find a way to mount or get off significant enough offense to stop it. And then in round two, Parker Porter is just still there, still throwing 10 strikes a minute and just piling up the volume.

So I am not betting this. I may decide just for funsies to do a porter by just. decision because it's it's such an outrageous line at like plus 1500 and you know Parker Porter is not a huge finisher but for me this is a full stay away so I hope it works out for you because I think I mean you look you would look really cool cash in that Parker Porter by decision ticket I mean 1400 and like he do it love a place 1419 where he just simply outpoints him the entire way home I mean there's money coming in on Porter there's money coming in on Porter I mean

Jelton obviously he opened up it opened at a soft open at minus 300 immediately within two seconds yeah I would hit that hard within two seconds it was at minus 600 got all the way down to minus 800 and now he's

back to 600 so a couple people taking the flyer on Barker means the bookies are doing their job yeah if he was up to plus 800 I would probably Right, you just might as well.

Like, if he, if Porter really got that juice, because, again, I made a should win this, but that is just an insane line with all the unknowns. It's true. It is true, man. I mean, I'm not going to lie. I don't love my betting card this week. This is a tough week to find a betting card that you love. This was another tough card.

I was talking about you beforehand when I was looking. I was like, I'm going to have, like, three. three bets and then I probably took a couple of risks that I shouldn't have because this is all about the almighty content you know we can't just get on here and say well we both have two bets tough week content cost so you know I maybe took some shots it does it took some shots that maybe I shouldn't have but I was able to not take some shots at seem yeah very very tough for me but hopefully it'll work out for you hopefully everything works out for us hopefully we just we just clean the board and then Holmviera ends in a draw and we just

draw. Everybody wins. We get a draw at the top. But we may still have some Civil War action coming at us. We've still got a few fights to talk about. Oh man, you might be hinted at something and I'd love to get into it, but let's keep it rolling on the prelims, lightweight bout. Uros Medish going up against Omar Morales. I do not have a side in this one. I thought about dog. I thought about dog for a second.

You put it on the thing. You don't have a side. I have a bet. You have any action? Oh, you do have an action? I have a side. I'm playing the total. Okay, I love that you have a side. So, yeah, I'm just taking the under two and a half. I grabbed it on Sunday at minus 125. I saw someone say somewhere. It might have been like a Reddit thread that Eros Medici is the lightweight Jordan Wright. He is just the ultimate killer be killed. He just runs in there in the first round. Eight professional fights. The longest any of them has ever gone is five minutes and 51 seconds. Seven first round finishes for the guy. I hit the under at U.S. 276 when he fought Jalen

Turner. Dude's got absolutely no ground game, got finished in the first round. And I think I'm just going to keep playing the Medici unders until he goes the distance as long as he hangs around in the UFC. Omar Morales, we've been talking about good nicknames. Maybe one of the worst nicknames, just the Venezuelan fighter. Oh, I think that's hysterically funny nickname. If he's doing it to be funny.

Oh, I'm sure he's doing it ironically. There's no way you do that. I'm going to trust you then that's hilarious. I thought maybe. There's a world where he's just like the Venezuelan fighter. Regardless, regardless. So he's not the biggest finisher, but he does have a couple of chaos. He's got five wins by submission, which is how he could get Medici out here because

Medici is not of a great ground game. Actually, I hate to interrupt myself. Medish, the doctor. I get it like medic, like the doctor. That's a bad one. No, that's a bad thing. This might be, this is a hell of a nickname fight. I do have to say that.

It's going to be fantastic. I pray we got buffer on the mic. Doubt we do. Doubt we do have buffer. But it's going to be hilarious when they're announcing them. But I think Medici is going to go in there. He's going to look for the finish. He's going to be wild like he always is in the first round.

If he doesn't get the finish, I think he's probably going to put himself in a dangerous situation to get finished himself. So I will be rocking with the under two and a half in this one. I don't know how I feel about that bet. Good. I mean, I can hope it works out for you. That's all you can do.

Morales has not proven to be a big finisher, and Medici is very finishable, but the other side of that, too, is Morales has proven to be very durable for the most part as well. So I'm a matter of Jonathan Pierce got him out, but this is a dude who went 15 hard minutes with Gigacaze, and we've come to find out that Gigacazade is an absolute killer. So I'm not sure about that bet from you.

It's not one I would make, but best of luck to you. I do have a side. And this is another one where I probably reached a little bit, but like you, I talked myself into the underdog here. You know, I have some serious concerns, basically just about the disparity and physicality. Ors Medici is very much a get-or-get-got guy. He likes to come in. He likes to brawl. I think he can be trickier and a little bit more technical on the feet,

but I do think Morales is probably the more stout guy, the bigger hitter. I think he's proven to have a better chin. As we've seen Medeach get taken out, but Medeach's loss in, I don't remember if it was his last fight. Yeah, last fight out. Was it his last fight that? Yeah, Jalen Turner. Jalen Turner put him down? Yeah.

So I think that there are just some pretty big differences here. Jalen Turner, obviously, a physical freak for the division, enormous size disparity. And I think Medeach just sort of had trouble with that and then just ate some big shots in a tough way. So I think that that's very less likely here. They are pretty comparably size, reach, everything sort of like that. And I mostly just don't like a lot of the stuff I've seen for Morales as far as defensively goes. I think he gets a – he's a bit hitable. and this is one of those where I just kind of immediately felt that this is close to a 50-50 fight

and I can get Medici at pretty decent underdog odds. I'll just take that and roll the dice and see what happens. I like it, man. Like I said, I almost talked myself into play in Medici. I mean, he was undefeated before that Jalen Turner fight, not a ton of fights on his record. And that Jailen Turner fight is aging pretty decently now. It is. Yeah.

And for me, I also haven't done it, and I probably won't just because I don't want to have too much action on this one fight that I don't feel great about. I think there's also a pretty clear argument to do on Medici by decision, because that prop number is fairly high. Got it. It's a 500 in some places. And like I said, Morales has been a really tough dude. And Medici is a finisher and a guy who throws it all out there. But if you can go 15 minutes with Giga Chikaze, I have. to expect that you know Uros Medici is not going to be the dude who suddenly gets

get you out on the feet and he's not going to take you down and tap you like Jonathan Pierce did sure well we're gonna see what happens we you've got the side I've got the the total in this one so we sell we shall see how it plays out let's keep it rolling bantam weight bout on the prelims Jonathan Martinez going up against Vince Morales you can get Martinez right now for minus two 20 Vince Morales plus 180. So I played this one pretty early on in the week. I grabbed Jonathan Martinez at minus 180.

Do you have Vince Morales? Oh, good, sir. I'm not touching this fight. I was actually fully expecting you to say you had Vince Morales. No, I, if I was taking a side here, it would be Martinez. And, oh, I'm sorry, I actually lied. I do have this fight. This is, when I mentioned earlier that I doubled up the piece.

parley with the Ponziabio or the Injoquani and the Hollyholm VR over two and a half I have that as a parley I also have a parley with those I also have a parley with those two plus

Martinez oh shit I think you're going to say the over one and a half because I use the over one and a half as a parley piece no but I think that's a I don't know what that number is I bet it's fairly well as same as the main event parley piece minus 400 yeah I think that's still a totally fine bet

Yeah, I really played spoiler there. Yeah, Martinez, man. I took him at minus 180. Like, I saw, like, all right. So I think it's going to be probably a pretty close decision here. But I do favor Martinez. I mean, I think he's got the cardio advantage. I think he can mix it up in the striking.

But the most important factor for me going back and watching the tape is the kick. Like kicks? Yeah, I mean, it has to be. When you watch the tape, the kicking ability, of Martinez and the inability to defend kicking from Vince Morales, a strength and a weakness going up against each other. If you look at Morales's last two losses and like you go back and watch, I mean, Morales gets absolutely throttled by Chris Gutierrez with kicks, especially the leg

kicks. I mean, he just leaves the lead leg out there the entire time. I mean, even after he can't stand on it, he's leaving it out there to get kicked. He ends up getting finished via leg kick because he just can't stand. on it anymore. And then the loss before that, Benito Lopez, not quite as bad. But I mean, Lopez still just chopped the wood the entire fight lands 39 of 52 leg kicks in that one. I mean, halfway through the first round, Morales's calf is just bright pink. I think Martinez is going to know that he has to go to that. I think he's going to find success with it. I think he can hold his own in

the striking affairs. I think this is probably going to play pretty much exclusively on the feet. and I think it will go to do a decision. Hopefully we can just get a clean, easy win for Martinez, but I won't be surprised if it's close. For my concerns, Morales does have power. We saw him knockout Louis Smolko. We have seen Martinez get caowed. He got killed by Davey Grant,

which parlaying that with the fact that Morales was in Davy Grant's corner last week, and they trained together, and I would expect Davy Grant might be doing the same for Morales this week, give him a few pointers on the guy that he beat. that's a tad concerning for me, but I still like Martinez in this situation. Want me to make you feel better?

Make me feel better. So while he may be getting some pointers, you know who Jonathan Martinez will have in his corner, giving him pointers? Chris Guinez. Who you correctly identified, they are longtime teammates at Factory X. Chris Gutierrez, you know, you said,

I think that Martinez is going to know to attack the legs. Well, he sure is because they can, came in. Chris Gutierrez came in was like, I saw Benito Lopez absolutely blow up Morales and the legs. I'm very, very good at kicking legs. I'm just going to do that.

Martinez is also very good at kicking legs. He now has a lot of data to suggest that he should check kick Vince Marales in the legs. Because again, the important thing about the leg kicks too, because honestly, my decision was made up as soon as I like looked.

It was like, oh, this fight's done. I don't really care. this place out because it wasn't just that like Morales took leg kicks and lost the fight. Like he was hurt, hurt by leg kicks from Chris Gutierrez, like very, very severely and quickly. It did not take many of them for him to noticeably be in trouble here. And so I will be stunned if that is not an enormous part of the Martinez game plan, especially because he already is a good kicker. I think this is sometimes you don't have to overthink it, right? Like this is, this guy doesn't check leg kicks.

This guy is very good at kicking legs. His teammate already kicked his dude's legs out from underneath him and won the fight. We're just A plus B equals C in this scenario. So, yeah, I'm fully on board. I've got Martinez as a parlay piece. Feel very good about him. And that's my other parlay. Gets you at plus 160.

Yeah, and the Goudier, if you have not seen it, I highly implore you to go back and watch it because it's, obviously this is for the listeners, not you, because it is a masterclass in leg kicking. And it's like the finish in round two, it's like slowly drawn out. Like it gets to the point where Morales, like each time he gets kicked,

he like leans back against the fence and is like trying to grab it to support. And it's just like the leg is just gone. It's just a matter of time before they call the fight. And Gutierrez just keeps just chopping and sweeping and eventually he just literally cannot stand on it anymore. So if you want to go back and watch a master class

and leg kicks, go back to that. I mention the Parlay. he's over one and a half. Morales, he's got power. Obviously, you know, perfect world Martinez does the same thing as Gutierrez and gets them out of there. But I do think that this one is probably going to go to a decision, so I feel comfortable playing the over one and a half.

I think that that's a fine. Vine bet. I didn't even look at it, but no issues with that bet at all. Almost certainly going to hit for you. All right. Last but not least, this is one that you want to get into. This is. It's the man. The dream. Chase Hooper going up against Felipe Corralis. Right now you can get Coleris at minus 165. Chase Hooper coming back at plus 145. What do you got for me here?

I'm so disappointed that you don't have action here. I thought for sure when I was looking at the call. I have a feeling I know where you're going. Oh, do you? I don't know. I thought I was going to go different places. This was a journey. I went on a road trip here. because when I first made this fight in my head, I was like, all right, Colores should be a considerable favorite in this, you know, two to one at least favorite. And then I started watching and started thinking about a little more and was like, actually maybe Hooper's a live dog. And then I really got into tape and was like, no, no, no, play the fame, chase Hooper train,

ride that pony until the wheels fall off because you're never going to feel, but you might not win every one of those bets. He has had a propensity to pull. pull out some wins, you know, the Peter Barrett heel hook on a fight he was very clearly losing. But that's sort of where I'm at. Let's talk about Chris Gutierrez. We just talked about Chris Gutierrez a lot. Felipe Calaras had a very solid fight with Chris Gutierrez, lost a split decision.

Probably shouldn't have been split. Probably should have cleanly lost. But a guy who Chris Gutierrez is a very, very talented fighter. And Calares was not a pushover. Did not, you know, his leg didn't fall apart. like other people's legs did. He was in there every step of the way, and I feel pretty confident that Chris Gutierrez would absolutely chew up Chase Hooper,

should they ever fight. So for me, that was kind of the starting point. And then as I just broke into it, Chase Hooper could easily be 0 in his last three fights, his one win being Daniel Tamer, a fight that he also wasn't doing great in until he did manage to get the fight to the ground. But he just had such physical advantage.

He's like eight inches taller than him and just you know he's not physically stronger, but there was just so much length that Tamer could not really manage it But he just hasn't looked that good in the UFC, you know Alex Cusares kind of just walked through him As really made him look entirely ineffectual because he said Peter Barrett was beating him before Chase was able to kind of iminari into a heel hook scenario and finally finish it late in that fight Stephen Peterson just kind of didn't let him get his game going. So for me, I think Kalara, he's not a great takedown defender, but Chase Hooper isn't a very good wrestler either. Like he's not a good guy taking people down.

He has to go to Iminari rolls a ton and do kind of tricky stuff like that. And so, like, I don't think he's going to be able to get fight to the floor. And more importantly, Calaras has been, he's been taken down a lot, but it's been by good wrestlers, Gerald de Freitas, Montel Jackson, and both those guys are very good wrestlers. And Montel Jackson had a really hard time holding him down. He's a much better wrestler than Chase Hooper. So I think that even if Hooper can maybe get some tie-ups,

gets the fight to the floor, Klares is pretty defensively responsible. He's going to get back up. Klares has never been stopped, and I don't think that Hooper wins a decision here unless he can really grapple for 10 minutes. I think he has to get him out of there. And I just don't think Chase Hooper has the game.

He is not a consistent enough fighter. He does not have a well-built game where the pieces all flow together. He just kind of relies on being a tricky leg-lock sort of guy. And I think that you can game plan fairly well against it. And I just like Galarisa plus money. Or as a favorite, minus 165. The only concerns I have is that Chase Hooper is 22. And so you can see pretty big advances, right?

You can make a lot of strides, but mostly I think that that's fine. And I am happy to continue to fade Chase Hooper for as long as he's in the UFC unless something dramatic changes. That's kind of where I expected you to go. I love the winding journey that we took to get there, but that is where I expected you to be on this one. I almost got there. I don't know why I didn't get there, honestly. I can't give you a good reason. betting against Chase Hooper is a solid bet

It's also a good time Interestingly enough Interestingly enough This is the first time Chase Hooper has ever been an underdog And the first time that Coleris has ever been a favorite Wow, that's another interesting statistic there It is Because I looked at it, I was like

I feel like you'd made a lot of money Betting against Chase Hooper And you would have because he's been an underdog Or he's been a favorite every time But Colores has never been the favorite So maybe he's not built to be the favorite, but I think he is against Chase Hooper. Yeah, I mean, you're fading a 22-year-old that just hasn't seemed to have the game so far in the UFC to compete at the highest level.

I like that strategy that you're going with. It's going to be interesting to see come Saturday. So those are the bets, those are the fights that we have bets on. Just to recap mine, I got Jonathan Martinez minus 180, Medici Morales, under two and a half minus 125. Jelton Al Mita inside the distance minus 190. Joseph Holmes inside the distance plus 250. Chidi in Jokanu minus 180. Holly Holihon minus 2.10.

Then I parlay at Almeida. A porter fight does not go the distance with Home Vieira over two and a half. That pays a minus 156. I am the chop king this week and I have no shame about it. Yeah. Was it any plus money on that? Just the fluky Joseph Holmes inside the distance. Oh, that's right.

there you go casman say man you really are just chalk man chalky chalk chalk i think i think the next card uh the the first one in june though i think i've already played a few underdogs and that one if i'm mistaken i'm starting to notice that we we have different betting styles you and i that is for sure because i love i love underdog action i if if i have a hint of an underdog that i feel i'm going to take the plus money and ride it and see what happens. So less of a chalk guy. And even this week when I thought I would be chalkier, not where I ended up. My recap of my, I have Ketlandvier straight at plus 195.

Now you bet that I expect probably will lose, but if it wins two units up. I have Ponzanibio Pahia will end by K.O. at plus 165 for just a little baby unit on that. I have another baby unit on Injokwani by K.O. at plus 145. I've got Tabitha Ritchi at minus 120. I've got Uros Medici at plus 140. I've got Philippe Colaris at minus 165. And then I have two parlay bets, Holm Vieira over two and a half in Jokwani.

And I have those, that pays out at minus 130. And then I have that same parlay plus Martinez added onto it at plus 158. And because I might be a crazy person, I am strongly considering bets on Medici by decision at plus 500. And just to be a bad teammate, Parker Porter by decision at plus 400. I'll actually be offended if you don't take the Parker Porter by decision. I'm probably going to put like a tenth of a unit on it because the number is so high and it would just be do it for the story. You know, you got to do it for the story. It's going to be even worse when Porter flat lines up.

in the first round. If that happens, you know... Ends Almeda's career and starts the run to the heavyweight title for Parker Porter. That seems unlikely, but I also didn't think Ty Tuivasa would be a top four heavyweight in a whatever. So, you know, crazy times. Crazy times. The pride of New Britain, Connecticut, my former stomping grounds.

All right. I guess I have no bets with value this weekend other than the Joseph Holmes inside the distance. I mean, every bet can have value. Winners are values. That's how I see it in my eyes on cards like this. I really just don't want to force anything. I'm sure seven underdogs will win, and I'll be looking like a jackass come next week

or two weeks, because we'll be off. My biggest... No, we will be off. Are we going to do anything? Is there a gap thing? No, because then we start our 12-week run to the end of the summer. Is there not like a bellator? You don't want to get in on...

No, I really don't think there's... There's anything. I think the only thing we got is a tank is fighting in boxing. Oh, it's Memorial Day weekend next week, isn't it? That's why, yeah. That makes sense. Yeah, my stayaway fight would probably be Tabitha Ritchie, but I feel like there's a few stayaway fights on this card.

Yeah. No, for me, the stayaway fight is 100,000% Eric Anders Park, John Young, that fight. Well, you could tell me literally any outcome for that fight. fight and I would believe you. Like if I woke up Sunday and it was like, Eric Anderson flying arm bar on Park, John Young, have been like out and not outside the realm of possibility.

Anything could happen. Anything whatsoever. Yeah. And like, I'm never one of those guys that like if you bet on a fight, I'm like, oh, if you're betting on XX fight,

like get some help. My biggest thing is just like, if you're betting on XX fight, there's no way you can be confidently making that play. Like if you're betting Elise Reed Sam Hughes, there's no way. You're like, Samu's dog money,

take it to the bank. this is a stone cold lock yeah i uh i almost played an almost played an over just just to have action so then we could talk about every fight on the card but then i decided that's unnecessary i will say you said we differ in betting styles i feel like these first couple weeks i've been shock-heavy i do love a good dog just as much as you you've been very chalk heavy i think one i think where we do differ though is you go under the mindset of I love to have action a lot and I go the opposite where I'm like I like to have action that like I really am uh like I'll avoid fights on purpose sometimes just to like not at the action so you know if I I will just bet them I'm like

yeah let's just we don't have to put a whole unit we don't have to put a lot there but you throw enough it'll all even out in the wash and then I've got more bets down in the same way of poker I play every hand in poker because I just want to be involved and you know it works more often than not. Yeah, I think the greats would tell you play every single hand

that's going to give you the highest probability of winning. Not the best fight night. Good poster though. I'll say it's a good poster. Sure. Good poster. I mean, you know. Because UFC 275 does not have a good poster.

All right. That's all the time we've got. Thank you so much for listening. If you've made it this far into the podcast, we'll be off next week. There is no you. UFC event. I don't even think there's no. Actually, I know there's not Bellator. The next Belator event is Gaygard-Mussasi, which I will be in attendance at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut on June

24th or 25th, something like that. So we'll take a leave of absence for a Memorial Day weekend. I mean, I got to see the goat. I got to see the goat in person. I can't wait. I've never been. I have never been to a Bellator event. I think it's like the only organization. Wow. Well, it's happening at the beautiful Mohican Sun in Utica. Or Unkisville, Connecticut. Scenic. It's not Unkisville, it's scenic, Unkisville, Connecticut. Get it right.

You're in the business. You've got to know these things. Yeah, there's absolutely nothing there but a tall casino or a tall hotel connected to a casino. All right, we're out of time. We've spent too long bantering here. Who's going to listen to an hour and six minutes of Home v. Fierre content? If you made it this far. A bunch of great people, that's who.

If you made it this far, then obviously you did. Thank you so much for listening. and we'll see you on two weeks. Love you guys. We're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.