MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Jack Della Maddalena Vs. Carlos Prates Is The Best Fight Of 2026

Episode Date: April 30, 2026

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates is the best fight of 2026. This Saturday, the UFC returns to RAC Arena in Australia for UFC Perth, headlined by a welterweight banger between former champion Ja...ck Della Maddalena and rising contender Carlos Prates. It’s Della Maddalena’s first fight back since dropping the title to Islam Makhachev, and how will that affect the Aussie as he looks to get back on track? No Bets Barred is here to tell you. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Luke Noseda of Morning Kombat and Main Card Minute to dive into all things UFC Perth. Topics discussed include who should be favored in the main event, if Beneil Dariush stands any chance against Quillan Salkilld, the surprisingly competitive fight between Tim Elliott and Steve Erceg, The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 154 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:01 This episode is brought to you by Defender. With the towing capacity of 3,500 kilograms and a waiting depth of 900 millimeters, the Defender 110 pushes what's possible. Learn more at landrover.ca. Amazon presents Laura versus fruit flies. Swarming your fruit and terrorizing your kitchen. These little freaks multiply at a rate that would make a rabbit say, yo. Chill.
Starting point is 00:00:33 But Laura shopped on Amazon and saved on cleaning spray, countertop wipes, and fly traps. Hey, fruit flies. Your baby boom ends here. Save the everyday with Amazon. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Bet's Bar. I'm your host, Jed Mishu, and it's been a hot minute since I have seen y'all.
Starting point is 00:01:15 I think the pay-per-view was the last one of these we did for a myriad of reasons. The cards were ass. I'm quite busy and sort of fell by the wayside. But this weekend, I was looking at it. I was like, we're on the road again. And I know we were on the road for Winnipeg, but man, that card is terrible. We are on the road to Perth, Australia. So I had to call up the, I don't know if I want to call them the greatest Australian I know, because another Australian with whom we are friends might take umbrage with the fact. But a pretty, darn good Australian, or at least he hails from an Australian's ball bag
Starting point is 00:01:56 in the famous words of our dear friend, Brian Campbell. And speaking, of course, about Long Island, Luke from Mark Mark Quiz and, of course, from morning combat. Luke, are you here? Are you excited to talk about UFC Perth this weekend? Jed, as always, thank you for having me. Of course I'm excited. I mean, it's UFC, it's in my loins.
Starting point is 00:02:18 I could feel it in my... half-A Aussie ball bag, how excited I am for this fight. You could say I got a phoneer. You could say I got a phoneer for the main event, right? Bangor main event. Pretty deep card, all things considered. This is like what they normally put on in an Aussie pay-per-view, I would argue. You know, they're never the best Aussie pay-per-views.
Starting point is 00:02:36 But this road fight night, pretty damn good, if I do say so myself. It's interesting because what I was going to say is this card is buns. Okay. I think because I was excited for this card. It's like, all right, purse is going to be good because you look at the top action and you're like, this is great. And then outside of that top, you're like, okay, we got two heavyweights on the, two heavyweight fights on the main card. That's rough. That's a tough scene.
Starting point is 00:03:04 We've got another, we got a light heavyweight fight, but it's a spirit. It's a Tafa brother. So it feels like a heavyweight fight. We've got a 35-year-old debuting fighter on the prelims. You know, we've got a couple. He's not hyped for him. Ben Johnson? real squash matches going on.
Starting point is 00:03:22 But it does have, in my opinion, the best fight currently on the books. The best fight on paper that the UFC is offering right now. It is our main event, our main event, Luke, as Jack Della Madelaine, the pride of Australia takes on Carlos protest in Jadium's first fight back
Starting point is 00:03:43 since dropping the Welterweight title. He is a slight underdog. Luke is we're going to dive right on into this card. Della Madelena plus 100. You can even find him at a minus number in some places very close to a pick-in-line fight. Carlos protests at my book minus 125. JDM was on an eight-fight winning streak in the UFC, won the Walter Wade title over Bala Muhammad, and just coming off that aforementioned loss to Islam Makachev at UFC
Starting point is 00:04:16 322 in November. Several of the dudes compete on this card fought a UFC 322 including his opponent Carlos Protest who that evening was victorious knocking out Leon Edwards to move to a two-fight winning streak
Starting point is 00:04:33 for himself since losing to Ian Machado Gary 6 and 1 in the promotion overall. Luke let's start with my contention. Am I right or wrong? This is the best fight currently on the books for the UFC this. year.
Starting point is 00:04:48 Yeah, part of me was going to go a White House fight, but those are, I guess, pretty lopsided fights, even if they are in, like those title fights at least. Yeah, I don't think you're wrong here, Jed. In fact, this was one of those fights I said to myself, like a week ago, I was like, you know what, I think I'll just take whoever the dog is in the main event. As I dove into it, I, you know, things went certain ways, but I'm just saying that's how intriguing this matchup is. Like, fuck, man, I really don't know who wins. it is it's awesome you know you got color's protest isn't like super super young you know he's 32 he's he's not old but like in the prime of his athletic career right but jack dallas still
Starting point is 00:05:28 very young former champion you know when he won the belt i think there was a question of okay is he is he going to level up and maybe put together a real rain here at this weight class we haven't seen in a little bit is the makachev you know uniquely bad style matchup. And by that, I mean, the best fighter in the world is bad style match for anybody. And so it was very tough for him. How is he going to rebound coming into this fight? A lot of questions at play.
Starting point is 00:05:56 I'm honestly just, I'm not even working the card this weekend. I'm working the boxing and the PFL in the evening. But because this is a morning card, remember that, folks. It is on Perth local time. So, but I'm still, I mean, I'll be awake by then anyway. but even if I wasn't, I'd be waking up to watch this main event because this main event rips. Luke, you said, you were just going to bet the dog, but then you kind of equivocated there.
Starting point is 00:06:20 Is that not what ended up happening? Where are you feeling the best value is for this main event? It may or may not have happened anyway, but I'm just saying I was like going to blindly just pick the dog, but then as I started going through the stats, I was like, oh, it's actually kind of back someone up. So, JDM, lands almost two more strikes per minute than protest, and he gets hit less often, and his striking defense is like drastically better than Prattas. 63% compared to 47%.
Starting point is 00:06:46 Pretty damn good. Protes, though, going to have a 5-inch reach advantage here, and he's knocked down and knocked out his opponent in all six of his UFC wins. I mentioned the knock-down things because some of those guys he knocked down multiple times before knocking him out. The point is, the man hits fucking hard. I don't really think either guy's going to wrestle here, Jed, but the takedown numbers were pretty damn interesting.
Starting point is 00:07:07 Protest, 100% take-down accuracy, which is, wild, but he did only shoot once in his seven UFC fights, and it was on Neil Magny. Not to discredit Neil Magny, but he's not exactly someone. I'm like, oh, Neil Magny's got the best takedown defense. JDM taken down a combined 14 times in his last three fights. So I do think Prattest could have success wrestling here at the same time. J.D.M coming off that full camp against Islam, I do feel like his takedown defense is probably the best it's ever been. I also just think Prattest is too fun to do something smart, like try and wrestle against Jada. He's stand and bang let's be real so you already know who i'm taking jed the dog and also the
Starting point is 00:07:45 a Aussie jack della madelena money i was so happy to see he was the dog plus one 10 got him at too so let's fucking go jdm let's get it done i felt a level of confidence that you would be taking jack della in this one you know as a as a man who supports your people can i just say i'm not one those i've actually not i looked back at this his last three fights i've bet against him really I bet Gilbert Burns against him and I was feeling damn good about that till he that was very close to being a great bet. Yep. I bet Balal Muhammad against him, which in hindsight was like the worst bet. And I bet Islam against him because I was like no one's beating Islam.
Starting point is 00:08:23 I mean, that was a good bet. That one at least is very fair. I'd love to join you, but I can't because my initial reaction was the same as yours. I think this is a pick and bite. And I even said yesterday we did an early BTF. on Tuesday. We're recording this on Wednesday in case you are good at math.
Starting point is 00:08:45 Somebody asked about this fight, and I was like, you know, I haven't dived, doven, doved into dove into the fight breakdown yet. And I'm just, you know, it feels like this should be a pickum. I would have thought that JDM was the favorite,
Starting point is 00:09:00 maybe very slightly. He did open as the favorite, was immediately bet down. And then as I watched a little bit more, started to think about a little bit more, I have a lot of questions and all those questions come in on the Jack Della side of things. And so I think Carlos Prattas should be a favorite. And I frankly think he should be a little bit bigger than he is right now.
Starting point is 00:09:20 Because for me, I mean, you mentioned it. Prattice is a much bigger dude. That's one. J.D.M.'s not really a big welterweight, right? Like, I'm not sure. I don't think he could cut the lightweight, but he's never been an enormous welterweight. Uh, is Lamachev was like probably bigger than him in there on, on fight night, you know? To the calf kicks from Makachev, I mean, everybody immediately noted it.
Starting point is 00:09:46 And he and his team were like, yeah, my leg didn't work after like four calf kicks. Carlis Prattis is a little bit better kicking people than is the Makachiev. Is the Makkahev best fighter in the world? But Carlos Prattis is much better kicking people. I think he's going to have that circle. But obviously JDM will know that. So how is he going to be counters with encounters? But the question is still the onus is on JDM to have an answer.
Starting point is 00:10:09 for a clearly identified problem that protest can take advantage of. Protest being bigger kind of makes that problem even more difficult for him. And especially because J.D.M. style is built a lot around his movement and his footwork. Prost takes his legs out from under him. How does that work? I think we could all, would all probably agree that as far as like single punch knockout power, both men have it, but protest is probably the more dangerous thumper of the two. and so Jadium is going to have to work into the range as the smaller man against a guy who is very, very devastating with his strikes. You know, the way, you know, Machado Gary beat Carlos Prattest was mixing the martial arts.
Starting point is 00:10:52 Will Jack do that? Maybe he can try. I don't know how successful it will be. And then, you know, what's his mentality? Where is his brain at after losing in such a bad fashion once he got to the top of the mountain? So I just have a lot of questions about Jack Della Madelena. And not even to mention the biggest one, Luke, because this is the biggest one I have. As I was going back through his career, I realized that JDM has had a very strange career.
Starting point is 00:11:20 You know, like a very odd one because he rolled in and he didn't have like a ton of hype. He had a little bit of hype. And then he immediately just started putting dudes down. And I picked up all this hype. And then Basil Haif has happens. And I am always willing to say, you know, look, short notice. fights are difficult on both sides of the equation. Basil Hafezahe has created some problems for him, but that fight sort of tempered expectations.
Starting point is 00:11:47 The Kevin Holland win, again, not like, he just went through a streak of bad performances there. Like, the Kevin Holland wasn't amazing. Gilbert Burns, he was 90 seconds from losing that fight, basically. And credit to him pulled it out. But like, he went from being super high to like, I don't really know about these performances, sort of backdoored his way into a title shot because he had been on a good run and Shavka got hurt again and then delivered a great performance,
Starting point is 00:12:17 but also did Bilal fight the best fight he could have? So it's hard for me to feel massively confident about exactly the level that Jack Delamadalina is at. And I know the level of Carlos protest is going to bring every time possible. Give me call those protests. I've got a wager on him at minus 125. laid out a lot of good points. I'm not going to lie. And I, there's something I didn't say in the beginning, and that's, I think I've bet against Carlos Bratis, like every single fight. And it's nothing
Starting point is 00:12:48 against Carlos Prattis. I like the guy a lot. It's just, I'm always so intrigued by the dog in his fights. I'm like, oh, dude, Leon Edwards at plus 200. And then Leon wins round one. And you're like, hell yeah, I'm feeling good about it. And then he burns you. So this is probably going to be one of those scenarios where I'm like, feeling good about the dog and Carlos does it again. But, But, you know, we'll see, Chad. We'll see. We're going head to head. We'll see.
Starting point is 00:13:11 We will see. You know what we don't really have to see about? I mean, we're going to see because that's just how it's going to work for us. But I think everybody is going to be on the same page as we move to the co-made event of the evening. A bit of a strange one here as, I mean, it's not a strange one if you know what's happening. But the circumstances are at least slightly curious as Benil Daryush takes on Quillan Saul killed. Derrush was supposed to fight a couple of weeks ago against Manuel Torres. Torres pulled out with Drew for some reason. I was trying to look it up just now and I can't recall what the
Starting point is 00:13:48 reason was. And instead of finding Binnie a replacement, he gets a replacement by moving back a few weeks, heading to Australia and fighting the surging Quillin Saul killed. Darius, as you might expect, huge underdog plus 350. Saul killed minus 475. there yousha's two and three over his last five all of those knock all of those losses have come by knockout and most recently he was knocked out by benwa sondini in 16 seconds at ufc 322 as we mentioned in the main event sol killed meanwhile forno on the promotion since coming in off contender series submitted jamie malarkey at 325 back in january i think you know where i'm leaning on this one but luke how bad is quill and sol killed going to knock out B'Neil Daryush. We'll see, Jed, I, you know, as the guy who's like, oh, I see the number on Benny. I'm like, let me try and find a reason to jump on Benny here. And, you know, it was hard.
Starting point is 00:14:46 It was hard. I'm not going to lie. So D'Ryush does get hit less often, but Saul killed lands more strikes for men. These are going to have a three-inch reach advantage as well. Benil does average a little over two takedowns per 15 minutes, but Quillan averages almost eight takedowns per 15 minutes, which is just absurd. You've mentioned it, Jed. We know what they're trying to do here.
Starting point is 00:15:04 Quillan finished three of his last four in round one. Benny was finished in three of his last four in round one. This is a set up fight for Quillan to get him in the rankings at home in Perth. I wanted to try and buy into Benny as a dog, as I mentioned, but I cannot trust his chin at this point. I wanted to also take a flyer on the over one and a half at plus 130, but I did take that in Quillan v. Malarkey, and we saw how that went. He finished him way quicker than one and a half. So I'm going to go with the trends here, Jed, and I'm going to take fight does not go the distance, 67. percent of their combined pro fights have knock on the distance. It's in a little three-leg violence parlay I got. That's the first leg I'll get to the rest as we go. But I already know this is going to be a fucking decision since I took that. But I'm curious, how are you are leaning? I mean, the minute this fight was announced, it was just very evident what was happening. I'll tell you, I, this year, later this year, I'm, I have already on the books to do a piece of what I've gotten wrong about contender series, you know,
Starting point is 00:16:06 in the five-year anniversary since I started doing a recap after every contender series season. And I've missed a few. There are two on this card that I have missed pretty badly in my sort of estimation. And it is Carlos Prattis and Kill and Saul killed. And Protest, I know why I missed on him. He was just old. like he he he he did contender series and he was like 29 i was like you know he's solid but is he going to be just like level up immediately and he did he came in and started nuking people
Starting point is 00:16:39 salt killed uh i think the jury is still out on how high he can climb for me because my biggest concern with salt killed is that he is not a great athlete he's not like a terrible one but especially at lightweight the more athletic you are the better you're long-term success rate is going to be. And I do not believe Salt-Kilt is like a great athlete. But he is riding a perfect wave right now of like a lot of, there's a changing of the guard moment, and he is getting a lot of guys that he can just put down. And he's technically better than I thought.
Starting point is 00:17:18 Benile Derr-Eush had his peak. I would favor heavily in this fight, but Benny's just not at his peak anymore. Benny was always very hitable and his durability has fallen off a cliff and Kulinzal killed can hit you and he's got real pop, real finishing ability. So a pretty straightforward one to me
Starting point is 00:17:37 as soon as they announced it. It's like, man, I thought Man, well, Toro's going to beat Benile Derrush too, but man, now they're sending you to Australia to get put down so they can get their new guy over. That's a tough life to live for one Benil Derrush. If he can get takedowns, maybe something changes, but I am on Quill and Saul killed.
Starting point is 00:17:56 And this is the climb. That's right. So we are on step three of the climb as it stands right now. Luke, the previous two steps were not covered on No Bet's Bard because I didn't do them for the last two events. But it was very simple. And when we went to Canada, Mike Malott was our opening climb. Cash that with relative ease. We felt very, very good about it.
Starting point is 00:18:23 then last week I got bullied by one AK Lee to taking the over two and a half in the co-main event for science because all of my previous climb bets for women's fights that were overs that were mathematically great bets. Tatiana Suarez doesn't finish people. Hadn't finish someone in five years. Oops. You know, Alexa Grasso doesn't finish people. She only ever finished Valentina Javchenko.
Starting point is 00:18:51 Oops. So we did it this time. and it worked. We are two steps down and Killen Saul killed will be step three, Luke. I was just going to ask you if you were doing a climb bet this week and given how confident you were, I was also going to ask if Quillen was the climb bet. My question to you, Jed, guaranteed he finishes him? What's your percentage Quillen by finish? Oh, I mean, if Quillen wins this fight, it will be by finish. And I think he is, I think Killen wins this fight nine times out of ten at this stage of their careers.
Starting point is 00:19:25 I keep thinking of that Yannal Ashmoos fight. He went the distance with Quillen and I'm like, man, that guy, who is? That guy's fighting in fucking Cage Warriors this weekend. Like that guy, I don't know if it's this weekend, but he's fighting in Cage Warriors now. So I'm a little... Binnie gets hit so much though, man. Even at the peak of his powers, Benny would get hit and then just kind of zombie through it. And now it's like, yeah, he's just going to get put down.
Starting point is 00:19:47 All right. You're making me feel better. Kill and Saul, get her done. If I try not to double up bets on anything, otherwise I would be looking at the, you know, something like inside the distance, props, stuff like that. We move on to the feature bout of the evening, a flyweight contest as Tim Elliott take, or Tim Elliott takes on Steve Vinny Siggs, Erseg. Erseg minus 300 betting favorite Luke, come back on Elliott plus 225. Elliot on a sneaky great run still. Man is almost 40 years old and still just being a very, very meaningful fighter in this flyweight division.
Starting point is 00:20:27 Four and one over his last five fights. Two-fight win streak submitted Kai Asakura at UFC 319 in August. Irseg, meanwhile, much tougher run after storming the UFC and moving right to a title fight within his first few bouts. Only two and three over his past five fights is coming off a big important win, though. over Ode Osborne in August. So he took a step back, defeat Ode Osborne, and now Erseg is a pretty sizable betting favorite
Starting point is 00:20:58 over a guy who's on a very, very good run despite pushing 40. Luke, how do you see this one going? Well, this one shocked me, man. I'm not going to lie. When I saw the odds, I was shocked. You know, Erseg does land slightly more strikes per minute, but he also gets hit more often.
Starting point is 00:21:13 Elliot does have that awkward style, no pun intended. Makes him tricky to hit. Wrestling here, though, is really what I'm interested in. Elliot averages almost four takedowns per 15 minutes, including having taken down 19 of his 21 UFC opponents. Erseg was taken down in five of his seven UFC fights. And although I think of Erseg as more of a striker,
Starting point is 00:21:32 especially during his UFC run, majority of his pro wins have actually come by sub. So maybe Tim doesn't want to take it to the ground because he's been subbed six times before. We also need to mention, though, that even if Ersec won against Ode, Jed, you mentioned he bounced back, he did not look good in that performance. It was super underwhelming. I expected him to do more. He really has not looked good since losing to Pantosia. Like that fight was the last time I was like,
Starting point is 00:21:56 damn, Ersegg's got it. I feel like the odds are just way too crazy on this fight. I'm taking a shot on the dog baby. Tim Elliott got him at plus 350. I don't hate that at all. Um, because as I dove into this fight, I was like, this fight's actually probably way more competitive than these Zod suggest. I don't ever love taking somebody who's almost 40 against somebody who's, you know, nearly a decade younger than them. But totally get it. And, you know, just the, the sheer volume of takedowns Pantosia landed on Erseg is just like, that's, there's a clear path for Tim to get this done. And Tim Elliott's still very durable, right? Like Erseg is, you know, he made his bones in the UFC with some impressive knockouts. Elliot only ever been knocked out once, which then
Starting point is 00:22:41 Luke led me. It led me down a road. It led me to a road. You know, I'm, I've been betting all wrong is what's been happening. The last like 18 months, I haven't been doing particularly well in my gambling things. And I've realized that the problem is I'm not having fun anymore. I'm trying to win. And you can't try to win. You got to just have gambling is supposed to be fun. It's not a career. Don't bet the house. Just have some fun. And you know what will be fun? I found it'll be fun, Luke. It's this. It's a prop bet because I think dog or pass situation totally makes sense to me. I would not lay this juice on Erseg, quite frankly.
Starting point is 00:23:21 But if you go and look at the methods of victory, people think of Steve Erseg as a thumper. You think, oh, Steve Erseg, yeah, he's the guy who puts people down because he had the one sick knockout of Matt Schnell. Six, six of his career victories, of his 13, almost 50% of his career victories have come by way of submission. And let me tell you, I don't know if you know this about old Timmy Elliott. Six of his 13 career losses have come by submission. Lucky 13, 6 and 6. We're going to go Steve Ursaig by submission. Plus 425. Just going to throw a quarter unit. We don't need to get, we're just having fun with this one, but a plus 400 bet. Maybe it's a club and sub. Maybe he catches a Gillian transition. But easily the most fun.
Starting point is 00:24:11 I think I could have on this fight is to root for a submission win from Steve Ursaig. And so that's what I'm doing here. Let's go. That is fun. And I want to just mention, I've been doing this thing the last few weeks. And by the way, not one of them is hit where I call them majority majority, majority props. And this would be one of them where majority of my wins come this way and majority of your
Starting point is 00:24:31 losses come this way. So why not just bet that? Jed, they're like over 15 in the last three weeks. It's absurd. Like not one of them is it. It's crazy. We just keep plugging away. until one connects.
Starting point is 00:24:43 They have logic, so I'm with you on them. It's just shocking that they don't hit more often. You would, you know, maybe it's just a cold streak right now. True. You want to talk about something that's going to hit more often? It's Marwan Rahiki, as he takes on Ali Schmidt. He's going to be hitting a whole lot for however long this fight last. We are not going to spend too much time on this loop because there are no odds for this fight
Starting point is 00:25:08 at the time of our recording this. I checked again this morning to see if any of it had. dropped, but this is a very fresh fight. Rahiki was supposed to be fighting Jack Jenkins, who withdrew and in-steps Ali Schmidt, making his debut from, you know, the Locoi-N-Zak area. Rehiki 1-0 in the UFC, a guy I liked a lot off the most recent series of contender contender series season. I comped him to Sean O'Malley because he's got a lot of personality and sort of a
Starting point is 00:25:34 similar striking style. Long, Lanky uses that. This is a squash match. Ali Schmidt is 4-2. he's not even good. He's just, he was available to step in on very short notice so they could kit this guy at W.
Starting point is 00:25:48 I anticipate these odds to be quite long, probably not the longest on the card because there is one fight on this card that is monstrous odds, but I would bet Rahiki's minus 900 whenever we do get odds. Tim, see, all right. My estimation was like minus 500.
Starting point is 00:26:05 And you're, could be that too. You're way higher on Rehiki than I am. Granted Ali Schmidt, I don't have any notes on this fight. by the way, I'm just like thinking about this fight. Ali Schmidt, four and two, and I've heard he like really doesn't look good in those four wins kind of thing. He is a CKB guy.
Starting point is 00:26:21 Rahiki, though, Jed, the man gets hit. He leaves his chin on a fucking silver platter. I bet Harry Hardwick against him in his last fight, which if we remember, he broke Harry Hardwick's jaw. It was a solid win for Rahiki. But Hardwick had his moments, man. And I don't even think Harry Hardwick is UFC level. So I don't think Ali Schmidt is going to be the opponent to upset Rahiki. But I did say, but I did say, during the Harry Hardwick fight, win or lose, I'm still betting against Rahiki next time. So I'm not going to bet Schmid, but I'm a man of your word.
Starting point is 00:26:49 I just feel like I'm still not sold on Rahiki. And like maybe his next opponent, I'll finally be like, all right, this is the guy who beats him. For the record, Ali Schmidt, four, as I mentioned, four and two, would you care to take a guess at the combined record of his four wins? The combined record of his opponents for his four wins. I'm going to guess like three total wins for four.
Starting point is 00:27:11 opponents. Uh, no, five total wins because the man he fought in March was five, five, and three. Oh, so the old, he has fought, uh, his career. Uh, his career opponents were a zero, zero guy who he lost to in his own debut, a zero zero guy who he beat, a six and four guy who he lost to, a oh and two guy who he won a decision over, and then a zero zero guy that he knocked out before fighting Jeffrey Mesa, who is 5, 5 and 3. He has never fought, or I'm sorry, he has fought one fighter over 500, and he lost to that fighter.
Starting point is 00:27:53 Yeah. Not a good man. Just is what it is, you know? Maybe he'll surprise us. I'm not going to bet Rihiki, even like whatever the line is, but this feels very, very obviously set up for Riki to get a W here. Now comes the hard part. because we're heading into the heavyweight stretch of things.
Starting point is 00:28:15 Shmiel Gatsyev taking on Brando Perichick. Gatsyaf 3 and 2 in the UFC, coming off a knockout loss to Waldo Cortezzo Costa at Qatar in November. Perichick, meanwhile, 2 and 0 in the UFC. Knocked out Louis Sutherland, who we will talk about a little bit later in this car, but a little bit later, I mean two minutes, basically. Knocked out Louis Sutherland in March. I do have a bet on this car, on this fight.
Starting point is 00:28:41 which is very closely lined. Parrichich, minus 130, Gatsyev plus 105. Luke, how do you see this going? This is one, you know, I feel like people are pretty high on Parrichich, and I don't really see it yet, even though he's Aussie, so I'm going to, you know,
Starting point is 00:28:55 I'm going to back him up. But Gassiav has a negative striking differential, and like a bad one, dude. He gets hit almost twice as often as he lands. Parrichich, great striking numbers. Lands over 12 strikes per minute and lands four times as often as he gets hit. Granted, those numbers are kind of skewed.
Starting point is 00:29:10 They're from like four total minutes of fight time in the UFC, but still impressive, nonetheless. Gazziev should probably try and wrestle here. He only averages one takedown for 15 minutes, but he does have three takedowns in his five UFC fights. He's also a former Abdulmanop guy, so, like, I'm assuming he knows how to wrestle. Perichich does have an 80% takedowns defense, but he was taken down by Louis Sutherland, which I don't really know if that's good or bad.
Starting point is 00:29:32 I think it's bad. I honestly think it's bad. Perich never hit the over one and a half in seven pro fights, so I feel like the longer this goes, the more I could see it swaying. Eve's favor. I'm going to root for the Aussie, even though I have my doubts. I'm going to root for violence though here. I'm taking fight end by K.O. 70% of their combined pro fights have ended by K.O. I wanted fight does not go the distance, but I couldn't get it in my violence parlay at plus money. So I'm settling with this. This is the second of three legs in the violence parlay.
Starting point is 00:30:02 I have a very simple breakdown of this fight, and the breakdown goes like this. I told you I was having fun. We're back to having fun. And there is no more. fun, no more electric bet. In all of sports, not just in May. There's no more fun to be had. They're dead. They're betting heavyweight over. They're dead.
Starting point is 00:30:21 They're dead. They're dead. They died. They're over in the last two weeks. I got burned on it last week. Buccecha and fucking Ryan Span, bro. They're not. They missed it by 20 seconds.
Starting point is 00:30:31 Have you? I, you know why they died? Because I stopped believing them. But they are the most electric bet in sports. The palms are sweaty the whole time. You're thinking to yourself. what have I done? I'm watching these two fat men just lean on each other like walruses fighting over territory and begging for them to stay in this clinch for as long as they can. What choices have
Starting point is 00:30:56 led me down this path? And I've missed those choices. And so we're taking the heavyweight over over one and a half plus 175. Mathematically terrible bet. As you mentioned, These dudes don't hit the over ever. Perichich has never hit the over. Plus 175, baby. Life is too long to bet the unders. I respect it. It's grimy.
Starting point is 00:31:22 I respect it, but everyone on my stream knows because it was two weeks in a row, bro. And after last week, I was like, guys, heavyweight overs are officially no longer a thing. You know, like unders are back. Flyweight unders might come back. I thought you were going to say that on the Ersag Elliott thing, by the way. You know, flywood unders, they're on notice. I mean, we've got some opportunities, but we're going to start with my baby, which is the heavyweight over, just the most fun you can have.
Starting point is 00:31:46 And that leads us right into our final main fight of the evening as we go back to another heavyweight contest. Tai Tuivasa is doing the thing again against the aforementioned Louis Sutherland, Tuivasa minus 200 betting favorite, almost surprising that he is a betting favorite, given that he is on a six fight losing streak. and got a decisioned by Talasin to share it in February at 325. The worst fight. I mean, not the worst fight of the year because Michael Venham Page fought this year and that was the worst fight of the year.
Starting point is 00:32:18 But a truly, truly bad fight that only me and Mike Heck liked because it was so funny to watch how bad the fight was. Tough scenes. Louis Sutherland, though, O.N. 2 in the UFC, as mentioned, got knocked out by Perich in his last time out. And you know what I'm doing because I mentioned the heavyweight overs. They are back. This heavy weight over, one and a half is minus 105. Basically, also kind of feels bad because all Thai has to do is hit him. If you just hit him, it should be over, but ties on a six-fight losing streak.
Starting point is 00:32:53 How could you possibly lay the juice on Tai Tuivasa right now? But how could you bet Louis Sutherland? You can't. What you can bet is that these two dudes are going to clinch for seven and a half minutes. and heavyweight overs, baby, we're back. The good thing about you taking these overs is that they are only seven and a half minutes. So me having like fight on inside the distance. Yeah, yeah, we can both still make out here.
Starting point is 00:33:17 But, uh, well, pause. Uh, tie to Avasa, negative striking differential. But yo, Louis Sutherland's like, hold my beer. I see your negative striking differential and I raise you a two to one negative striking differential. Yes, Louis gets hit twice as often as he lands. We know Ty is going to keep this standing for as long as it last, dude. He has zero takedowns in 17 UFC fights. Louis, I mentioned this earlier, got a takedown in his last fight,
Starting point is 00:33:41 but it only lasted a minute or so. So I'd be worried to see what he can do with a few more minutes here. Like Jed said, you know, could go long. Ty taking down three times in his last fight. I actually thought the price on Ty was like reasonable because you could parlay him with something else and get it a plus money. You know, like a minus 200, okay. Six in a row, man.
Starting point is 00:34:01 But, well, my next thing is I am not true. trusting tie Tuovasa in a parlay in the year 2026. That just seems stupid. So this is going to be the third leg of my violence parlay. And I also want to mention I got burned on that Tuovasa to share a fight. I had fight does not go the distance. This time I'm taking fight end by K.O. 66% of their combined pro fights have ended by K.O. This is the third leg of the violence parlay, the three legs together, plus 105. I hope that you hit and I hit. Me too. I accept your violence so long as it comes at the eight minute mark of things. And now we move to the prelim and I'm going to let it be known.
Starting point is 00:34:42 These prelim is buns. I have one bet on the entirety of the prelim. I considered a second one. And then I was like, what are you doing? Don't do this. So a couple of things, you know,
Starting point is 00:34:54 I've got some dogger pass comments and we can talk through them. But I know you have action because you are a man of, you are a man of action. This is what they say. I am not. I have one. fight that I have bets remaining. So let's move to the prelims as we go to a middleweight contest as Cam Rauston takes on
Starting point is 00:35:14 Robert Brichick, Rousden 2 and O in the UFC, knocked out Cody Brundage in January at UFC 325. Basically every fighter on this card fought at 325. It was the last time we were in Australia. Round up the Anzac fighters. They're all running it back. Cam Rauston won that fight over Cody Brundage. Brichick knocked out Brad Tavar's in September. Breachick is your underdog plus 140.
Starting point is 00:35:41 Raustin minus 170. Shocking to me that he beat somebody like Brad Tavars because he lost to Ijo Portia who's still like just a terrible fighter. Meanwhile, Cam Raustin, by my estimation, was a one-star prospect coming off contender series. So I don't think very highly of him either. No action for me on what, you know, I think favors the Aussie. but, or is Camer Alston, New Zealand?
Starting point is 00:36:06 He's Ozzy. He's just, uh, CKB guy, but he's, he is Aussie but fights as CKB, yeah. Um, but yeah, just no action for me on this one. Are you backing your Australian brethren? I mean, come on man. I mean, Robert Brecheck, first of all,
Starting point is 00:36:22 bet against him in the, or sorry, bet on him in the Ehor-Pateria fight, bet against him in the Brad Tavares fight. So that man is dead to me. Oh, so nemesis. It's just, he's nemesis action. Um, Cam Rousston lands more strikes per minute. he lands almost twice as often as he gets hit.
Starting point is 00:36:36 Brechekh does have a negative striking differential and gets hit almost twice as often as Raustin. The wrestling, though, is going to loom large here. Raustin, taken down 10 times against Teres Finney, which I still don't know if we look past that because Teres Finney is a good wrestler, or if we really look down on Cam Raustin because he lost to Teres Finney.
Starting point is 00:36:53 I feel like that's like, ah, this day and it, that's not looking so good. Regardless, his takedown defense does make me nervous. Brechek has 100% takedown accuracy. Granted, he only has one take down. down in his two UFC fights. I like the price on Cam Rousson though here. I'm not going to lie. It's only minus 180. I'm going to take him money line in a parlay. I think as long as this stays standing, he should be able to get it done. Sure. I, yep, totally fine with me. We move on to the spiritual
Starting point is 00:37:22 heavyweight that we won't be taking any overs in this one. A junior Tafa taking on Kevin Christian. Tafa minus 210. Come back on Christian plus 165. Tafa. I knew, I knew Junior Taffa had a bad resume. I didn't realize just how bad it wasn't until I was looking at this. One in four over his last five got submitted by Billy Alicana at U.S. 325 in January, as mentioned. And this is a battle of the dudes who lost to Billy Alicana because Kevin Christian, oh and one in the UFC, got submitted by Billy Alicana in November. The last two dudes, Billy Eliccana tapped out.
Starting point is 00:38:00 Put them together, see what happens. Can I just look again, I don't have any action here. I did, I do, I think this is dog or paths, frankly, because did you realize the junior, I didn't realize this, Junior Taffa's only UFC wins are over Parker Porter and Sean Sharaff. Shout out, Parker Porter. I mean, I know that that's a, like, Parker Porter is the spiritual manifestation of M.A. fighting, but like, he's ass. You have to look at Taffa like a Jared cannoneer.
Starting point is 00:38:35 You know, he was ass at heavyweight. He's going to be ass at light heavyweight. But the final evolution is him in middleweight and then he's going to be a contender. We're going to see Tafa in a title fight on middleweight. It's going to be sick. But, dude, I will say you mentioned his resume being terrible. His striking numbers actually better than I thought. Not that they're anything special, but I just assumed he had a negative striking differential
Starting point is 00:38:57 and he doesn't. So I was shocked there. He lands almost three times as often as Christian who has pretty anemic striking numbers and a negative striking differential. Neither guy has a taked down in the UFC, but majority of Christian's pro wins have come by sub and Taffa's been subbed three times before, so I would not be shocked if he tries to get it there. I do favor Tafa in this fight, but a lot like the Tauvah, it just feels wrong to parlay junior Tafa, given how inconsistency is.
Starting point is 00:39:24 I'm instead just going to take the prop I've been taken all night, fight M by K-O, maybe it's minus 2.35. I will parlay it. aware this could end by sub. Fight does not go the distance. It's just way too expensive, though. So I'll just take the shot on the K-O prop. I have one last thing I'd like to mention about this fight.
Starting point is 00:39:40 And it's a very silly thing. But I know that you are a man who loves a gimmick parlay, as much as I do. The bet I was considering from the undercard is a gimmick parley that involves Kevin Christian. And the involve is the bet is very simple. It's two-leggar. the two first name parley
Starting point is 00:40:02 because Kevin Christian is a man with two first names there's one other man on this card with two first names Tim Elliott both of them happen to be underdog so if you did want to take that two first name parley which again kind of fun and genuinely was considering it's plus 722 on my book
Starting point is 00:40:20 it's not bad because I was like are there any I was just thinking who else and then it looks like actually only two people have two first names. I guess maybe that's not entirely true. You could convince me that Marwan Rahiki is a first name. I just, that's not a line. He's not a first name. I'm aware of. Yeah. So, uh, but the double first name parlay, if you wanted to do it, Kevin Christian also gets involved there. So the real, that in mind.
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Starting point is 00:41:19 One day you're negotiating with suppliers. The next, you're installing a shelf in the back room. Running a business means moving in many directions all the time. TD's new small business banking accounts are built for how your business moves. It's how we're making banking more human. Real question is, are you taking the Australia parlay? It is an 11-leggar. It can be a 12-leggar if you want to add in Junior Tafla who lives in Australia, but it's
Starting point is 00:41:44 technically born in New Zealand. No, I'm not doing that. I'm not doing that. How crazy is that, though? 13 fights, 11 Aussies. 11 of them have an Aussie in it. It's a lot. I mean, and they all fought at 325, too.
Starting point is 00:41:56 320 like every time they go to Australia it's just the same 12 dudes that's why I said this is comparable to an Aussie pay-per-view because it's literally just all the same people that they would fill out a pay-per-view with that is technically accurate but I'm not sure that
Starting point is 00:42:12 is positive no it's not positive at all it's a bad sign of things to come you want to know it's positive me when it comes to who's going to win this next fight middleweight contest Jacob Bakun takes on Gerald Mearsart biggest betting favorite on the card one of the biggest betting favorites of the year malcun minus
Starting point is 00:42:31 1,300 of my book meershart plus 750 malcun three and two over his last five but he is riding a two fight winning streak unanimous to win over torres finney who's already mentioned on this pod before back in january mershart not the biggest losing streak on this card because ty tuivasa's lost six in a row, but Muirchart's right there with him at four losses in a row. Got submitted by Kyle Dawkes via Darshchoke back in November. I just couldn't find, what? On that 322 card. 32 card.
Starting point is 00:43:09 I mean, this card is an amalgamation of two pay-per-views, so I guess technically you are correct. I just couldn't find a way to get a bet down here because, like, you know, Malkoon by decision is plus money. and Malcun mostly decisions people. But I don't know. Like Mearsar's just been getting tapped. And like Malcun could maybe just hit him in a dars or something.
Starting point is 00:43:34 So I don't, there's just no price to do anything here that I feel remotely good about. It's a pass for me. Dude, so this is one of those. I don't know about you, Jed, but I never look at the odds. I always just like break down a fight on paper and then I look at the odds. That way if I like pick the dog, I feel way better about it. I'm like, oh shit, the guy I thought was going to win. as the dog. This was the exact opposite. I'm fucking going through this. I'm like, wow,
Starting point is 00:43:56 Malcoons got great numbers. I bet he's like a minus 200. Minus 1300. Are we fucking serious here? He does have great numbers though, dude. He lands twice as often as he gets hit. He averages almost six takedowns per 15 minutes. GM3, negative striking differential, N was taken down by more than half of his UFC opponents. Granted, it's risky going to the ground with GM3, but Malcoon should be able to get the job done. Minus 1300 is just too fucking crazy. There's no way. I'm taken that. And there's also no way giving Meershard a chance here, even at plus 750. You mentioned
Starting point is 00:44:29 Malcolm by decision. I'm going to take the over two and a half. It's plus money. Four of Malcun's five UFC wins have come by decision. So, I'm just hoping. I feel like he's just not a finisher more so than Mirchart's going to get finished. You know what I mean? So I'll ride with the over two and a half.
Starting point is 00:44:45 I mean, sure. Let's hope. I just, Gerald Nearshart be tough. That's what we're up for at that point. We continue down the line just a couple of fights left here as we go to the Bantamweight Division and Colby Thickness taking on Vince Morales. Pretty tightly lined battle here. Not a bad little, it's not a great fight, but it's at least a competitive fight because Colby Thickness isn't amazing. He's minus 1.30 favorite over Morales, who is plus 105.
Starting point is 00:45:12 Thickness picked up his first UFC win last time out, taking a decision over Josias Musasa. Sorry. And Morales, yet to find a year. UFC win. O and 3 in the promotion. Unanimous decision lost to Raoul Rosas Jr. his last time out.
Starting point is 00:45:32 Yeah, Morales kind of almost feels like he's a better fighter than thickness because he's lost to mostly decent dudes, but I don't know, he hasn't won yet, so I'm not going to bet on him to win. Does that make sense? Yeah, but I do just want to correct you. This is his second stint in the UFC.
Starting point is 00:45:48 So he does, he's three and eight overall when he is 0 and 3 in this current. Correct. Correct. Correct. Both guys, Jed land roughly the same strikes per minute. Morales does get hit twice as often, though. I think of Colby thickness as a wrestler, and I'm like, oh, yeah, he could probably take this to the ground. He does average more takedowns per 15 minutes, but dude, his takedown accuracy is actually atrocious. 9%. He went 0 for 8 against Alexander Teporia and two for 14 against Musasa. At the same time, Morales was taken down a combined seven times in his last two fights, and he only has a 58% take. take down defense. I just feel like though, if Colby can't get the takedown, I don't really like his chances here whatsoever. I'm going to take a flyer on Vince Morales with the spread when it drops. I'm going to go plus seven and a half. I think he could steal a round, if not win outright. I think he's a sneaky dog too. I mean, I like that better, I think, than a straight bet because I do think he can steal around there. So that's totally, totally reasonable.
Starting point is 00:46:47 We move back to the middleweight division for our next contest. West Schultz takes on binge. Johnston. We talked about Ben Johnson. 35 years old making his debut, the Eternal Champ. Way to go, Ben Johnson. Glad to have you here. Shultz winless in the O.C. Got knocked out by Damien Pinas back in February.
Starting point is 00:47:09 As I said, Johnson making his debut. Andy is the betting favorite minus 145. The comeback on Shultz is plus 120. How do you see this one going, Luke? This is just very reminiscent of last weekend. and Sedrique Dumas, Jackson McVeigh fight, where I'm like, I feel like neither of these guys should really be here,
Starting point is 00:47:28 but I guess one of them is going to win this. I'm at least open to Ben Johnston being here. Me too. But I don't know if he deserves it. I mean, I'm fine. You know, he's won several fights. He's a regional champ. He hasn't fought in like two years,
Starting point is 00:47:44 which is a concern. Yeah. But like, at least on paper, it's like, all right, I get it. You're not a prospect. You're 35. But like you, you know, you're going to the area. This guy's a, he did something.
Starting point is 00:47:57 Sure. I got it. I graded it as a one star prospect. Just I don't think he is very good. It's not his fault that he lost to Damien Pinos, is Damieninus, who I think is incredible. But like, the only positive I can really say from that is he did take a lot of shots. So credit to him. Because Pinaw's bombed on him for a while.
Starting point is 00:48:21 and every one of them basically put him down, but he's tough enough to keep getting back up before he got put down again. But he looked, and I don't blame him, I would look the same way. He looked visibly petrified in the cage against Damien Piaz. They gave him penis after they gave him Abdul Malik, too. They're just giving him every hammer.
Starting point is 00:48:41 What's next? The Teba Gautier, they're like just throw, or maybe he fought him. He fought one of those guys, right? He fought Mansoor his first contender series thing. Yeah. But yes, if he wins this fight, they should 100% give him a capability because that'd be funny as hell. Dude, you know, he got to, he pulled off a cool sub win.
Starting point is 00:49:00 His win on Continuity Series is cool as a Sula of stretch. So yeah, give him a contract, but like, I don't envision much from him here. Yeah. I mean, dude, he's got a negative striking differential. He lands almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, but big whoop. This is Johnson's debut. We mentioned he's 35 years old. Jed, he's been pro for 16 years.
Starting point is 00:49:20 made his debut in 2010, only six pro fights. His opponent's combined record 12 and 7, given his age, the fact that he's Australian, feels like they're just hooking up some hometown legend with a fight in the big leagues, like we spoke about. And while Schultz is very beatable, I think I got a side with him here. He's only lost to solid prospects and UFC veterans. The age factor just feels very telling here. Like Johnson probably would have made it to the UFC a while ago if he actually, you know,
Starting point is 00:49:49 had the goods. I'll take a shot on West Schultz money line plus 130. All right. Party time it is, I suppose. If he cashes, it certainly will be party time. We are going to keep moving to the Walterweight Division. Jonathan Mikkelif taking on Thimba Garimbo. God, why is this a fight this happening?
Starting point is 00:50:09 Mikkelv minus 250, Thimba Garimbo plus 195 on the comeback. McAuliffe, tune on the UFC. Submitted Obon Elliott at 325. that's right, you guessed it. RNC tech sub. He tech subbed Obama. DeMogorimbo, the Rock's favorite fighter, man continues to believe he's going to win the belt someday.
Starting point is 00:50:31 We all have delusions. Good for you, if yours are at least this lofty. He's on a two-fight losing streak. He lost a unanimous decision to Jeremiah Wells in November. I graded Mikulip as a decent prospect coming off Contender Series in his season. not like a great one, but sort of above average. And I don't think much of Timma Grimbo. I strongly suspect McAleff will win this fight, but I'm not betting on it.
Starting point is 00:50:57 Fair enough. I mean, McAuliffe lands more strikes per minute, gets hit almost three times as often, though. Garimbo averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes, and McAlef was taken down in his contender series bout. At the same time, Garimbo's lost half of his pro fights by sub. Majority of McAlef's pro wins have come by sub if you're looking for a gimmick, Jed. I like McAleaf, but I'm actually surprised. favorite here because I feel like the stats actually back up Garimbo. I want to root for him, though,
Starting point is 00:51:23 but he's too expensive for me to touch it at minus 200. Over two and a half is plus money in this, so I'm going to take the alt total rounds, take the over one and a half in a parley. McAuliffe's hit it in both of his UFC fights and Garimbo's hit in three of his last four. Terrific. This is just we're right on this car. Just like... Dude, I like Jonathan McAuliffe. I feel like he's flying under the radar. I think I don't want to be too bold because I just said I think he might lose this fight, but I feel like if he wins this fight, he's going to be on the Quillen trajectory where we're like, oh shit, this guy's better than we thought. I think, like I said, I graded him as an above average prospect, not an amazing one, but a solid one.
Starting point is 00:52:03 I think I actually graded him right where I had Quillan. You know, I just, it's Timbergrimbo. I don't care about Timbergrimbo fighting in 2020. I don't, it's a strange one. we do get to the last fight of our conversation in the first fight of the evening and the final fight that I have a bet on and a fight that I'm at least pretty interested in. A lightweight contest, Cody Steele taking on Dom Marfan. Steel, oh and one in the UFC lost to Rang Zoo in February of 2025, so he's been out of action for a year and some change. Dom Marfan coming off your unanimous decision
Starting point is 00:52:40 win over Song Uq Kim back in January. Luke, I do have a bet. bet on this fight. Do you have any action on this fight? I mean, do. Where is it? Of course, but I just want to point out, Jed, in the beginning of the prelims, when you said I only have one bet and it's going to be a fun one, I literally was like Cody Steele by sub. He's taking Cody Steele by sub. Is that the fun bet? Oh, no, it's just Cody Steele because I like Cody Steel. But yes, you are correct. I'm taking Cody Steele. I think a buy sub on the prop is a totally reasonable way, but I'm not ready to give up on Cody Stee quite yet. I also want to just point out Dom Marfan has fought on a UFC card before, but technically it was a road to UFC bout.
Starting point is 00:53:21 It was a road to UFC fight on the card. That's so strange. To me, bro, just call it a UFC bout. But they're saying this is his debut, so we're going to ride with that. Yeah, it's very dumb. Cody Steele, he lands more strikes per minute. He's got a negative striking differential, though, and he gets hit with an absurd at seven strikes per minute. That is really bad.
Starting point is 00:53:37 Dombar fan gets hit three times as less. He's going to have a four-inch reach advantage. Safe to say, if this stays standing, I think Dom Mar fan's going to have the advantage, but Cody Steele, former BJJ competitor, got close to 50 pro matches. He kind of inexplicably, big words, tried to stand and bang with wrong Zhu his last time out. Don't get me wrong, he did attempt four takedowns and he did get him down once, but I remember watching that fight being like, why isn't Cody wrestling? What does he do it?
Starting point is 00:54:05 You know, like I was mad. Both the Dom's pro losses have come by sub to Quill and Saul killed of all people. That's why I thought maybe you were going Cody Steele by sub. I could definitely see that happening, but I also kind of like Dom Marfan as a dog. I'm going to do the same thing in the Vince Morales fight. I'm taking Dom Marfan plus seven and a half spread once it drops in a parlay. Yeah, Cody Steele was one of my, he didn't quite make the list of top-graded prospects his contender series season. Just because he is older, he's 31.
Starting point is 00:54:39 So it's a bit tough. I was pretty surprised by his performance against Rongzhou because there's a guy who acclaimed maybe isn't the right word, but like a good grappling pedigree, very strong athlete, powerful dude, like has a lot of,
Starting point is 00:54:57 a lot of reason to really believe that he could do something good. And then Rongshu is not a bad fighter. Don't give me wrong, but like just not what I was anticipating, you know? And so definitely a bit of a sense. step back, but I still think Cody Steele has a lot of tools to be good.
Starting point is 00:55:16 And Domar fan is, you know, road Eof-C guy, but just still young. That's sort of the one concern here is young fighters can improve much more rapidly than older fighters in general, especially a guy like Cody Stee, who's been competing for a really long time. You know, his grappling game is what it is. But I like Cody Steele to get the W. And so opening the evening with a bet on a guy that I am still believe can make some noise, maybe not make a title run, but make some noise at 155 pounds. Luke, that wraps us up for
Starting point is 00:55:49 UFC Perth, which goes down Saturday morning. There is a little bit of other action on the evening. I don't have any bets down some boxing. There's also a PFL Sue Falls. Did before we get out of here, just want to ask, have you looked at the Sue Falls card, anything jumping out at you over there that you're, you know, considering a bet on? Logan's Storley taking on Flores and Delhi in the main event. I think Storley's going to be your betting favorite. If I'm being honest, I just have not looked at the card yet, but if I'm also being honest with myself,
Starting point is 00:56:21 I will end up throwing probably just main card bets on that. PFL I don't usually, I definitely don't go every fight like I do for UFC. And also props usually aren't available on a lot of those fights. Yep. But I'll probably try and find like either a single or a parlay for the main card later in the week. Look, Talas Santos is fighting. I think she'll probably come in. at a decent favorite.
Starting point is 00:56:43 Magamund Magamatov, Leandro Ego is actually like a very, very solid fight that's sort of hiding on this. It's not a terrible card. Hanon Fahedav is returning against the heavyweight, who I don't really know. Gadsie Rabadanov is fighting, and I think Logan Storley is probably going to win. But something to check out along with the big boxing of the weekend. I think there's a karate combat this weekend. All sorts of shenanigans going on. So Luke, I know that you.
Starting point is 00:57:11 We'll be watching the fights. Even for this, you're going to wake up at the ass crack of dawn to do a full card watch long over on Main Card Minute? You fucking know it, man. I mean, if I... Am I going to really let down the Aussie crowd for this watch? Like, I can't just... They're there with me in the middle of the night
Starting point is 00:57:27 every... When it's good on our time, I can't return the favorite. You know, you got to do it, Jed. So yes, 4 a.m. Main Card Minute. Full Card Watchal. Also got a new prop quiz coming out on Friday. It is the first semi-final matchup of the Torney. Winner gets 100 bucks.
Starting point is 00:57:41 So make sure you go check that out as well. What a king. What a freaking king. I will not be awake to watch these prelims, certainly. I will be up, I'm certain, by the time the main card rolls around. Because a lot of those fights I am interested in, as you can tell from my bets, ladies and gentlemen, you know where to find Luke now, main card a minute. Also, MK, there will be an MK on Friday.
Starting point is 00:58:05 So always tune into that. And prop quiz, as Luke mentioned, if I meet at enemyfighting.com, but you probably know that. if you are listening. If not, we'd love to have you. And if this is your first time, thanks for joining us. Next week,
Starting point is 00:58:19 an unequivocal, no doubt about it, banger of a card, at least eight extremely good or meaningful fights or relevant battles in some way, shape, or form. I'm speaking, of course,
Starting point is 00:58:30 UFC 328. Your neck of the woods, baby. I'll be going. I'll be there, yep. I'm going there, and I'm going to Philly at 3.30, so. Nice, nice. Trying to go to more cards.
Starting point is 00:58:41 We'll have to talk off air about all of that. But until then, we'll have a guest. It won't be Luke next week. Sorry, you got tapped in for Australia. We will have a no-back to board next week. Tune in. Until then, thanks for tuning in. Love y'all.

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