MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Kicking Off 2023 With The Return Of Flyweight Unders At UFC Vegas 67

Episode Date: January 11, 2023

2023 is upon us and the UFC is back, baby! That's right, this weekend kicks off the UFC's 2023 campaign and as such the No Bets Barred Boys are back with a full gambling breakdown of UFC Vegas 67. In this episode, Conner Burks and Jed Meshew begin by celebrating the University of Georgia Bulldawgs winning BACK-TO-BACK college football national championships before hopping into a breakdown of this weekend's card. Topics include: Sean Strickland's chances coming in on short notice against Nassourdine Imavov, Umar Nurmagomedov as a massive favorite, and the 2023 prospects of Flyweight Unders. Tune in for Episode 31 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's going on, y'all. We are back. It is another episode of No Betts Barred. This time for UFC Apex 67, Nasal Dean, ImoVov, taking on Sean Strickland. We get to end the year with a Sean Strickland main event, and we get to start the year with a Sean Strickland main event. Does it get any better than that? I thought you know this sports great, Connor. It does. We're at the apex. That's the only way that this gets better. Can I wait?

Two, two Sean Strickland events at the apex? Back to back. Within the span of like five weeks? We close out 2022 with a Sean Strickland event. We open it up with one as well. Both at the apex. If you're not aware, Nassadini Mavov was supposed to face Kelvin Gasselm in a middleweight matchup. Now he will be facing Sean Strickland in a light heavyweight matchup. If I'm not mistaken, it will be Sean Strickland's debut at 205. I have to assume that's correct. Can you remind me as well, Connor, because I can't, you know, the holiday fog.

Was that last Sean Strickland fight particularly fun? I personally, I personally did not think so. I do have a bet. I'm going to try and capitalize on that lack of excitement. I've got a bet, but interesting. I mean, I know why. it happened. Sean Strickland will just fight dudes,

but interesting that this is the route we went here with the fallout of Kelvin Gaslam on Fight Week. Feels like Fight Week need a replacement. Who's going to step in? Sean Strickland does not care. Like, let's let it rip. The man is always down for a fight. And to be totally honest,

the way that I kind of see this matchup going, sort of feel like it's just going to be 25 minutes to sparring for Sean Strickland. It's going to be terrible. See, This is, I didn't, when the news happened or whatever that Gasolam out, I was like, a lot of people were very sad. Like, oh, this is a terrible start to the year. And I was, I didn't really think too much of, I don't care about Kelvin Gasolm. Frankly, it was like, I already lost the people's main event.

Shavkat Rakbenov taking on Jeff Neal. That is the fight that I was looking forward to. Well, that's where I'm going with this, Connor. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. No, I'm saying I didn't care when people were getting, you know, sad about this. And then I looked at it. I was like, oh, I get what they're being sad. We're about to have Catlin Vieira versus Rocky Pennington as the new main event

because there ain't shit else to put atop this card. And then the more I thought, then when they announced this, was like with you on the, oh, we get Sean Strickland again, fun. And then it was like, man, what if instead of rebooking Jeff Neal Shavka, Mike Heck and I have been talking about this? I am a firm proponent that Shavka should have stayed on this card and he should have fought anybody. they found a dude for Nasrini and Imov find any warm body.

It doesn't matter if they're ranked or not. Just somebody for him to style on so you can get the people hype about this dude who's going to be fighting for a title sooner or later. You know, this has happened. Habib fought people. Tony's fought Landovanada on short notice. You just let him do his thing and people and get hyped. And then when Kelvin falls out, we could have slid our way into Shavka-Rakmano versus

Nassanin Imovov. And that fight's awesome. It's awesome. I mean, I'm 100% with you because unless that fighter is going to be in the top five of their division, I think the outcome is just going to be the same. If you're going up against Shafkaa Raqmanov, I think he's just going to run through anyone. So just let him run through someone.

Exactly. It doesn't, you build stars by just frequency. You just get people out there, get them showing stuff. We haven't seen Shafka in a few months. Now we're going to have to wait for it. And this happens. and they could have easily just been like, hey, Shavkat. You don't cut weight this time.

Nassardine keep making the drop down. You're definitely going to have a size advantage. But like, right now, frankly, I'm picking Shavkat to win that fight. And I think a whole hell of a lot of Nassadine Imov. Oh, there's no doubt I'm taking Shavkat in that fight. There are few and far between people that I'm taking against Shavkat Rockmanoff. Yeah. And my point here, because I just did a series of pieces.

on fight promotion for year-end reviews. It's just like, this is the difference between going through the motions and between promoting because we're now going to talk about this card. And I don't want to put words in your mouth, but certainly from my stance, this is not a banger, not a heater. I'm not particularly looking forward to this one. This is, you got to get one out of the system to kick the year off. I understand.

You know, it's just the starter. It's the appetizer course, but I am not sitting here like, tune in on Saturday. Let's go. Whereas if we had somehow backdoored into Nasor D. Nemov v. Versus Chavkat Rachmanov, I don't care that this undercar is trash. I would be lit. I'd be like, dude, this fight is going to rule. And that's just a difference between going through the motions and actually getting people excited

about your product on a weekend, week out. basis. Yeah. For me, I guess, well, one, I just have to agree with you there. I mean, for this being the first card of the year, I had much more difficulty like getting up, getting excited, doing the tape study, looking, you know, diving into the stats than I expected to. I feel like next week is really what's going to light a fire under my ass, really get me back into the groove of things with UFC 283 in Brazil. Two, the new people's main event, the fight that I'm most looking forward to is Umar and Magamatov Haione, Barselis. Oh, that's one of two fights, maybe three on this card that I'm like legitimately very interested in. I'm excited to talk about that one because I have questions. This is side TV action. NFL playoffs on, I will have this on a side TV. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

I don't have the, you know, maybe I should set that up. I've been meaning to get a second television for things. But I just haven't done it. Maybe I can do that this week as I'm as I'm. Well, speaking of football, we have the NFL playoffs this weekend, but we just crowned. I would say a new national champion in college football, but it's not. It's just a repeat. Same as the old boss, Connor.

It's just a repeat. The Georgia Bulldogs go in. I mean, we just have to touch on it. It's 65 to seven defeat. of TCU. That's a big number. Biggest win in bowl game history, just an absolute bludgeoning.

It was just pure dominance from kickoff to the final knee when the confetti started coming down. I mean, it was just, it was incredible to watch. You know, for me, you either want a really tight game that your team wins, but you're going to be sweating the whole way and that wind feels that much better, or just boat race them.

Just blow them out of the wall. water, make it look easy and just to search your dominance. And that's what we got on Monday. Oh, man, I was ready to light up the cigars, the Stogies at halftime. It was fantastic. I'm proud of you for waiting to feel that way until halftime because I, it was awesome. Everything you said is right. You want to win the close one or you want to just dominate. We got both. We got to win the close one in the semis in one of the most electric college football games all time, frankly. And then we, we get this one? And it was, this was the definition when they talk about coronations. Well,

this is just, this is a coronation, not really a sporting event. This was it, man. Because like, I had some nerves coming into this game. You never know. You never know. I saw some stats floating out there about, like, on nearly two touchdown favorites in football games, in championship games and how that has historically not been like a really great place to be. And, you know, I was like maybe we just have a huge letdown after the Ohio State. We escaped with one and maybe we get thinking too much. And the TCU wide receivers, they're not Ohio State good, but our backfield is so bad in that game or our defensive backers are so bad. I was like, I don't know.

I came into that game thinking two touchdowns was maybe too much. the first half would be really competitive, just to track me, and then the second half our depth would win out. And then the first snap, one, I don't know if you notice this. Did you notice that the coin toss that the ref's hand was shaking? That man looked super nervous. Like he's on camera. His hand is shaking.

He looks very nervous. And then I looked up and everybody on TCU looked shook, man. every single one of them. I don't know if this is armchair psychology or not, but from the first snap, all of my fear, anxiety evaporate. I was like,

oh, Max Duggan is not prepared for this moment, man. It was that first sequence for TCU, and we just got a quick three and out, and then we go down and score when I was like, oh, yeah,

like it's going to be one of those game. All right, I'll give you one moment when I had like a touch of pause is when TCU gets the bomb. They score, they make it 10, seven, and then we come out.

And like, as we come out, I was just like, all right, if we don't, like, say we go three and out here, that's when, like, I'll kind of come back to Earth. We did not. We scored 17-7. And it was just over from there. I mean, at that point, it was just kick your feet up and let's just enjoy the party because we are the kings of college football. Well, by definition, it was actually, it was in fact over from there. Because after that bomb, they never scored again. Carter.

They scored the one touchdown on a blown coverage. You have that one play where you don't have the blown coverage. You win that game, 65-0. Yeah. It's-old. Dude, they never even crossed half-field again. Dude, they could not do anything. Someone said it perfectly at halftime.

I believe it was David Pollock. It was just like, you want to run tempo? You want to run hurry up? Well, you can't do that if you can't get a first down. And it's just like they were so far out of their depths. And I mean, congratulations to TCU on an underline. unbelievable season. The fact that even made the national championship is incredible.

But Max Duggan did say one thing after the game. He was just like, this game, the way that this ended isn't going to have any effect on this season. And it's just like, yeah, it is, dude. Yes, it is. It has all the effect on this season, in my opinion. One, you lost the game. Like, you could have been the Cinderella story and been legends in Fort Worth forever.

Two, there is no way you're not walking away from that. Like, wow. 65 to 7. Like, wow. we got absolutely run out of the building. I refuse to believe that. See, we were discussing this very top of me and my buddies who were watching it. And it's, I think maybe I agree with Max.

Because it's 65 to 7, right? All right. So you're saying because it's so bad, you're just like, whew. Yeah, exactly. We did our best. Like, we hit the pinnacle of our season. Yeah, exactly. Because I don't, I want to be really clear.

I think that's the worst game TCU played all year by a lot. not just because we imposed a bad game on them. I also think they didn't play well either. It might have also been our best. Yeah. Oh, I was about to follow it up with easily our best game. National Championship. Yeah, easily the best we performed every aspect of it.

So beautiful. But yeah, I kind of think I'm with him where it's like we were debating. I was like, if you lose that like the Ohio State game on a last minute field goal, that feels like that haunts you forever where you're just like this. You can think of the hundred different times where one inch, one play, one moment changed the trajectory of the game and the outcome in your life. You get boat race 70 to 2 or whatever. It was never meant to be.

Like, it was just never meant to be. We did it as good as we could have. This wasn't going to happen. We were. And, you know, I think that for initially it probably feels worse. We're just like, dude. But I feel like pretty quickly you can just come to terms with. We were out of our depth, man.

We just got speedbagged, and that's... All right, I can feel that a little bit. I can see what you're saying there. I do, though, agree with you that this changes the whole season in that the narrative almost immediately shifted after that game. Maybe correctly, maybe incorrectly, I still haven't quite figured out how I feel to, like, oh, Georgia's... Georgia was clearly the best team this year.

We're like, the Ohio State game was the de facto national championship. I saw a bunch of, you know, commentators come out and be like, Georgia was not playing their best. They slept to walk in that game. To some extent, I agree. But I also am not entirely sure that that's true, but the beat down we put on TCU and the fact that TCU actually deserve to be there sort of got washed away any of the criticism that came from the semifinals about our performance that we gave up 700 yards or whatever dumb number we did. So I do think that it really just solidified. We put a stamp on our season in a really definitive way. Oh, that's an absolute fact.

I mean, there's no question at this point. We went 15 and 0. There's only the second team in college football playoff history to do that. The first team to go back to back. I mean, the stamp was made. Kirby. Only freaking three teams have gone back to back in the history of the college football championship. I mean, it's unbelievable.

And only one is. ever three-peated, and I'm not even really going to count that, 34, 35, 36, Minnesota. They didn't have to play a playoff. They played eight games every year. I'm not counting that. If Georgia goes three-peat next year, which they are now the favorites in Vegas to do so, I mean, I don't even know. I might just have to hang up, just retire as a Georgia fan.

I'll never get better than this. And that's one thing that I want to say here, you know, ever since I joined the MMA fighting team, we've kind of pushed the Georgia football into the content a little bit. And we've seen two national championships. It is not always like this. Actually, it was never like this. We were always the team that came up short.

Like, we were always the team that got very close, but never got it done. I mean, just three years ago, we were getting run out of the building by LSU in the SEC championship game. Like, 2020, we didn't score a single. point in the second half against Alabama. Like these like 2012, we come, two a game. Oh my gosh,

the two a game second and 26. We lose an overtime in the national championship. You thought that was the end of the cruise. A freshman off the bench because they benched herds. Oh my God. If we hadn't now won two, that whole game, I would have never gotten over it,

ever. That game still hurts to think about, even with back-to-back Natties. 2015, we're 4-0 going up against Bama. were favored for the first time. First time a team has been favored against Bama in like eight years. I get offered $250 for my ticket. I'm a student at the time before the game.

I say, no, I go in. Pores rain. Pores rain. Absolutely soaked to the gills. I leave one minute into the third quarter after a pick six by Bama, 38 to three. It's just like, oh, man, we have suffered for decades and decades. People that are new to this, I don't want you to get it twisted

and think that this is just how it is. Like, we're just the Patriots and we never lose. Like, this is, this is rarefied air that we're experiencing it. For 40 years, we did nothing but come up short. Usually in the, like, most grotesque and painful ways. Dude, three years ago, the South Carolina missing the kick. Like, it's just, oh, man. Dude, the SEC Championship game where he came up literally a yard and a half short of winning.

Shout to Malcolm Mitchell, 2012. Absolutely killed me. We were that weird. SEC team where we won two SEC championships during the stretch of the BCS where even we won them but we had other losses so we didn't those were the times we didn't make the national championship game every other SEC champion just got a bit into the natty and it was like actually no Georgia found a way to thread that needle because they

just can't do it yeah so it isn't always like this hopefully it continues to be like this It may never not be like this again, though. We may never lose again, Connor. Dynasty's always fall. Hopefully this one gets extended. Hopefully it goes long. What I will say, got to enjoy it. Because right now, we are in the good old days of Georgia football.

If I get to see 2050, I have a feeling in 2050, I'm going to be looking back on these times and be like, those are the good old days, man. Oh, yeah. You remember how good we were. Burn the boats. We're never hunted. We're the hunt.

back to back, maybe a three-peed, who knows, these are the good old days. We've got to enjoy them while we've had them. A thousand percent. Let me end with my favorite stat of all time, certainly of the last several years, Connor. We have more national championships than losses over the last two years. Unreal. I'm a big fan of us going 29 and 1.

It's pretty fun. It's pretty fun. And we're at the stage now where you're, where you don't rebuild, like, you just reload. That's all it is. I actually think we have a really good chance to 3P next year. I did not think we had to- Schedule's favorable.

The schedule's favorable. Schedule's favorable. We're probably going to lose 10 people-ish. And the reality is, like, losing Stetson will hurt for, you know, the intangible reasons. But there's actually, like, a fair argument that he is the third. best quarterback on our roster right now. So we are probably improving a quarterback from a skill standpoint. And we're not losing nearly as many people as we did last year.

And the rest of it looks weaker. Like, I'm sure teams will emerge. But the front runner to me is Caleb Williams and USC. Like, that's the team that there's a, you know, okay, Caleb Williams is a dude. I refuse to be afraid of Southern Cal because it's Southern Cal. Why would anyone be afraid of Southern Cal? When it comes to the teams, my roommate asked me that, who's going to stop you guys? It's like someone well.

Someone will step up and be good. I don't know who it's going to be, but someone is going to be good. I'm sure Ohio State. I'm sure Bam will be good, but both of them are losing their franchise quarterbacks or whatever. So it'll be interesting. I'm sure it'll be compelling. I think we have a better chance to repeat this coming year than we did last year, which is saying something since we went 15 and 0.

Well, hopefully they can do it. hopefully they can make history. I cannot wait to watch it unfold. It's going to be fantastic, but we've got a lot of waiting to do before then. We have got nine solid months before we're getting to experience that all the way in September. And you guys don't come here for college football talk. You come here.

Are you sure? Talk about a little bit of mixed martial arts. UFC Apex 67. We have to. Can we make this our quickest breakdown? Obviously give the people what. they want but like i don't have much to say about most of these fights we're talking off uh in pre-production or whatever i currently as it sits have six bets down i have a seventh that i'm

gonna pitch to you to contemplate and i have one half of a parlay uh and even those i don't feel good about these numbers like if i was being all the way smart i would have like two and a half bets if i was all the way smart i would i would have two two bets in one parlay instead i have have 10 and two parlay. So let's dive right in. Brickin wild man to kick off the year. I love it. Love that energy.

It is a light heavyweight bout with Nasadine, Imovav, and Sean Strickland. Right now, you can get Sean Strickland or Nasardine Imabov, whichever one you please at minus 110. The over under is set at four and a half, which is also going minus 115 each way. For me, I mean, I thought Imovov was probably going to beat Gaslam. I had a bet down on Imovav. This feels like a step up in competition against Sean Strickland, but what has Sean Strickland been doing since the cannoneer fight?

I mean, he's been riding motorcycles. He crashed one, though he didn't have any injuries. I feel like he's just kind of enjoying the holidays, just been doing his thing. He's had less than a week to prepare. I can't really get a bet down on him. Is Imovov, like, is Imov going to do it? this. I don't think he's going to be able to take it to the ground.

Like Sean Strickland has good takedown defense over a big sample size. I don't really know what's going to happen. And I contemplated putting a bet down and I said, nope, nope, I'm just going to take the over. I'm going to take the over here. I mean, Strickland, three of his last four have gone to five round decisions. I mean, he's a tough dude. I know he got starched by Alex Pereira, but everybody gets starched by Alex Pereira. I feel like this is going to be like a 25-minute sparring match.

Like, I feel like it's going to be just the quintessential. Sean Strickland, very close-type decision. I don't know. I'm taking Imov at the price, I guess, is where I'll start. I can see the world where Sean Strickland just does kind of Sean Strickland-y things, but I got to be honest, I sort of feel like Sean Strickland has had a kind of a smoke-and-mirrishy career. Maybe this is just recency bias because of how impossibly stupid his approach to Alex Pereira was or the fact that, I mean, he was competitive with Jared Canaanier, but that was one of the worst fights where stuff constantly happened that I've ever seen. It was not Rose Carla where nothing happened.

They did a lot of stuff and it still was just terrible. It was the same combination repeated ad nauseum to no effect from either side. And so it's like, you start looking at it. Brendan Allen's probably his best win. I mean, I guess maybe Jacker Manson and a close fight. He's a high volume dude who's not going to really put a lot on you to finish you. And I came into this year, I did a little look back on my successes and failures of 20. And I don't know if this is smart or this is dumb, but I've just decided that I don't

default enough to the baseline principle that I believe fundamentally I say all the time, but I don't bet behind all the time. Athleticism is a freaking cheat code in the sport. Half the people in it aren't actually good athletes in the broader sense of that term. They're just people who know how to fight. and so when you get hyper athletes, those dudes can succeed to a very high level, even if they actually suck at fighting.

And when you get good athletes who are good at fighting, that's when you get really, really great fighters. And I think I'm a vav is a much better athlete than Sean Strickland. I didn't love the Gastilum fight for him. I still was picking him to win tentatively, but I couldn't bet on him just because Gaston's chin is so good that imov's kind of style of fighting. I had questions how that would hold up over five rounds against the dude he's not going to put away.

Against Strickland, I think he's going to have that active jab going. Strickland's just going to do the pitter-powder thing. Imov's going to hit him more. I think hemov is going to be bigger, faster, stronger. And even money with Imov actively being trained and, you know, Strickland coming in on short notice. That's the biggest thing, right? Like that's the biggest thing. Like Sean Strickdon, if you look at his Instagram since the Jared Canaanir fight,

he's just like he's riding motorcycles, he's using his drone, like he's like getting lost in the mountains. Like he's just kind of fucking around, to be totally honest. Like you can't think that he's in like a diligent training camp. Sure, he's probably working out. Sure, he's probably sparring. But like, I cannot trust a dude coming in. I mean, he's clearly not in like incredible shape because he needs it at at 205. I cannot trust a dude with my money that, like, there is just a world of uncertainties surrounding him going into this fight.

If I'm going to bet this, I'm going to bet on Nasadine Imov. Exactly. And I was just surprised at the odds, frankly. I thought Imov would be about the same that he was against Gaston. You know, Gasselm, he was like minus 210. I kind of thought it would just be the same. Pick him. Oh, give me imov.

I'll take him. And I also, I think I didn't really consider this because I sort of wasn't paying attention to this fight after they made it and I made my initial thing. I think I'm going to take the over two and a half, it's minus 205 right now. I was looking for a second leg of a poleway and over two and a half is minus 205. I am going to take over two and a half minus 205. Frankly, you could straight bet that and I'd feel really good about straight betting. Over two and a half ski. just straight bet that i might cash out my over four and a half and straight bet the over two and a half

yeah um i'm i'm just going to pair you've got that on dk right now yeah it's on dk right now whoa that number feels very low right um for yeah i'm actually going to place that bet as we speak on the show you know what i think i'm going to do here's what i'm going to do i'm cashing out my over four and a half right now cashed out oh going to take Nasr Dene Imovov and I'm going to take the over two and a half. Glad you had way more bets than I did to start. We're just adding more, baby. I mean, what are we here for if not for that?

Or do I wait and take a same game parlay of Nasradi and Imov and the over two and a half? Oh, no. I think I think diversify your options because I don't feel like massively confident in Imov, but I do like him to win. but yeah the over two and a half number just looks juicy i think you could play that straight but i have one i had an open parley leg that needs some help so we're going to talk about it in a little bit so give me the over two and a half here uh as a parley piece there was a world where i was just not going to play the main event at all and uh here we are now look at you

Well, here's why I feel good about this, because in my opinion, the chance of Sean Strickland finishing Nasredini Mavov is much, much lower than the chance of Nassadini Mavov finishing Sean Strickland. So say we, you know, Nasredini Mavov loses the fight, I feel like we're going to cash the over two and a half and Nassadini Mavov is minus 110. I'm looking at a small loss. Or there's a world where I get the overend and I'm evolving, you know, we're heading to the bank. But those have just been placed for me. Great shout there. I was looking for the alternate totals.

I did not realize that they dropped. Minus 205 to take 10 minutes off of that. I'll pay that price. It was very, that was just looking at the, those odds are very strange because over four and a half is minus 115. Three and a half is minus 145. it's not even a huge jump down for the for the extra round you losing 30 points and then another 60 to get it to two and a half uh yeah two and a half felt like the sweet spot so that's where i'm at i'm on imov i've got the over as a parley piece and that's all we need to say about this main event i think that's all we need to say uh yeah i was going to say it should be a good one i i don't know if it's going to be good or not we're we're going to have to see it's going to be interesting it will be interesting to see sean strut and in there on such short notice.

And back-to-back headline, that's pretty big stuff. All right, let's move to the co-main event. It is a featherweight bow. Dan Igey, 50K, is taking on Damon Jackson. Right now you can have. I mean, another close one. There's a lot of close fights on this card. Dan Igay for minus 125, Damon Jackson coming back at plus 105.

Dan Igay, lost four of his last five. Damon Jackson, four-fight win streak. but my thinking in this the four guys that Ege has lost to are our top tier dudes in the featherweight division. Evloev. I agree.

Zombie. Cater. The guys that Damon Jackson is beating, like you have to put some, you know, who they are fighting behind these. Like Pat Cepetini, we were both very high on Pat Cepitini.

I mean, we got cheese steaks in honor of Philly that weekend. Didn't worry out. down that we can really let us down. Big time. Argueheta, Kirk, Rosa, though. I mean, I guess he's handling all of those. I mean, if he can, if Dan Ige can keep this off the mat, I think he is the much better striker, patient, great cardio, dog.

Both these dudes are dogs, honestly. I think this is a bounce back spot for Dan Ige, back against the wall. If he loses, do, like, where do we go from here? Like, I feel like the career is really, we're starting to have big push marks. That's what we go. Yeah. We go to the P. FL with a loss.

Very close fight. I feel like this is a step down in competition for him. I'm going to take Dan Ege at very close odds. See, this is why I'm glad I don't have the bed in because don't disagree with what you're saying in principle. I will note just because the way you framed it of, Ege has only lost to, you know, top shoe, totally true. This is a step down for him.

Damon Jackson hasn't fought as many big-name guys. His only losses, though, you know, in recent times, Ilya Tuporia movie Kabulet. Those are extremely fine losses to have on the old career. Granted, we can note he did get knocked down both those fights. Ege has never been knocked out. The man can't be knocked out as far as I'm concerned. So I honestly kind of view this the same, right? Because I'm with you.

If Ege fought those dudes, he's handling business that. Damon Jackson did. If Damon Jackson fought the dudes Ege did, he's probably losing Tomahmobos. Sorry, I've loved. But if Egey fought Ilya, Ege is losing to Tepuria. I feel like they're, he, like, right. Ronnie Jason, though. Anthony Maderos.

That's a long time ago, though. I feel like David Jackson has a resurrection. Long time ago is the tough part of that. And so it's, I guess I should also throw this out there, even though I don't think this matters. their head-to-head matchup, both fought Kevin Aguilar, Damon Jackson takes that L, then Ige gets the dubbed,

so there's this. And that's some solid Eminemath right now. Look, MMA math has never, ever dealt me a bad hand. I just wanted to put it out there. My thought is exactly where it comes down to. If this stays on the feet, he is better.

If it doesn't, it's not. And I am really not sure that it doesn't stay on the feet. Statistically, Ege not a great defender of takedowns and practically not like the best defensive wrestler. You go back and watch the tape. Damon Jackson isn't a great actual like technical wrestler, but he gets into good spots. He's powerful enough to just kind of make it work over some of these dudes.

And here's the part of it, man. Here's the part of it that maybe this is me being stupid. Maybe this is me buying into the hype. But. Safe space. Get it out. since he became action Jackson, man. Since the terrible tragedy with his brother, the way he fights now, he is, he is so in there and doing the thing.

I don't want to go against. Yeah, that's a good point, but it is one fight sample size. But that one fight, baby, he's, you know, we should have known right then. We talked about it afterwards. We would never bet on Philly had we known. And that energy is still there. for me. Like it's, I can't know, maybe I just can't get out of my head, but

David Jackson, an underdog price, this was the one I wasn't sure where I was going to go, but I got to commit to it for the last point of it too. My birthday brother, me and DJ, Zach same birthday. Nice. Nice. So, August 8, 1988, baby. I'm, I'm on him. I'm going to take the shot.

I was debating when I was originally looking at the lines, I thought, because Ege never gets finished. I was just like, I just get Jackson by decision, and it's plus 180 as it sits right now. I mean, also the fact that Dan E. Gay never gets finished. And in my opinion, he has a cardio advantage in this fight. I mean, if you go back and watch that Argueira fight, like Damond Jackson really slowed in that third round. The Charles Rosa's fight, he didn't find a ton of success. Like, I feel cardio is on Ege's side, so it's really going to come down to those first two rounds.

I'm with you, though. If it hits the mat, me holding a Dan Ege ticket. I will be fairly concerned. Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardiard thing. I'm ultimately not taking the by decision prop, just because you're not getting that much more. It's 105 frame straight, 180 by decision. And, you know, I'll just, I don't need the headache.

By hook or by crook, any W I get, I get the plus money payout. So, Damon Jackson, I'm on it. All right, I love it. Action Jackson. Let's keep it rolling. Let's move on to a middle. It's our first head to head of the year. Yeah, let's do it, man.

I'll take 50K, you got Action Jackson. Let's get it, man. Let's go. It should be a very close fight. Now, if Damon Jackson, say he comes out and steamroll Zee, it's just like, man, well, you guys heading to the Pfell, Damon Jackson, 34, a renaissance. Like, this, this man is really starting to impress. Let's keep it rolling, though. Middleweight bout Puna Soriano going up against Roman Copilov.

Right now, you can get Puna Soriano for minus 150, Copilov coming back at plus 130. the over under is set at two and a half. Right now you can have under minus 145 over plus 115. I mean, in my opinion, this is just going to be a striker's delight. I mean, we've seen Puna struggle with getting taken down. Coppilov just likes the stand and trade. I think Roman is probably the better overall striker. Like he's fast.

He's got good hands, but he's not that high volume. Like he's got the fast hands when he is throwing. And then Puna makes up for it. with the power. Like he has got heavy hands. He throws big shots. For sure. He is very tough.

He's got that Hawaiian chin, man. You cannot sleep on the Hawaiian chin. He's a tough dude. Yeah, man. I went back and forth on this one. And then just after watching some tape, like if this just stays standing, I think Soriano is really going to enjoy that.

I mean, the struggles that we've seen has that Maximoff fight. Like, it looked like he was going to fight. find the shot many, many times, but he just kept getting taken down. Like Maximoff was just going, grinding, 11 takedowns landed in that one. I think if it stays standing, I think I've convinced myself that Puneas Soriano is going to find the chin and he's going to be able to knock out Roman Kavilov. You know, you've done it today. So I guess I turned about to Seris Fair Play.

I had no intention of having a bet down on this fight. I agree with your breakdown. I think the power advantage is huge here. I just don't really think much of Koppelov, also if we're being honest. But then when I was looking, I was like, do I really want to lay minus any number on Puna? I don't feel great about it. But, you know, minus 150. Ooh, okay.

So, Draft Kings, draft Kings has this. I took Puna Soriano finish only. So if it goes to the score cards, I just get my money back. It's just a push at minus 175. It really didn't take much of a hit. I mean, that is a much better bet. I understand that Koppilov has a decent amount of finishes on his resume, a lot of them coming in the fourth and fifth rounds,

but I mean, coming up against, I don't see him as like a lethal finisher. I don't know. Going up against a guy who's never been finished. Incredibly durable. Yeah, in Pune Soriano. I feel confident that the way that Koppelov wins is just throwing that jab out, just outvolving them, using that speed advantage that he does have.

have and pretty much just outpointing his way to a decision when, or I think Soriano finds the chint. So I did take the finish only. I am also on the under two and a half because that was my OG bet when I first saw it. I was like, man, I kind of think Soriano's just going to knock him out. And I got it at a playable price. It's still there. I took it minus 135. Yeah, I just, I think Soriana is going to find it.

You've sold me. I'm just going to take Puna at minus 150. It's a 60% win prop, which feels, if that's not like dead correct, it's probably a little low. You could sell me that Puna should be minus 200 or so. Puna has let me down before. I won't lie. He has let me down before. It's tough for me to feel confident betting on any man who lost to Nick Maximov.

But, you know, there you go. Man, what a change. What a change of phase for the MMA world on Nick Maximov. I never bought in. I'm not going to lie. Never bought in. But man, some people thought this dude was the future. As a general rule, I don't buy into, you know, anybody that they're, their claim to famous.

They train with Diaz's. All right. So that's what we're going with. I'm going to, you know, I just need the nice double hitter. Puna gets the knockout. If Copilab wins, you know, my losses are softened because of, or I mean, if Copyloff gets the decision, my losses are softened because of the finish only prop. But yeah, that's what I'm riding with.

It should be a fun one. I will say that. I think it's going to be a fun fight. But let's keep it rolling to a very fun fight coming up next. It is a women's bantamweight bout. Ketland Vietta taking on Rockout Pennington. Right now you can have Ketland Vieira going at a... The people's main event.

Yeah, minus 120. Pennington coming back at plus 100. The over 100 is set at 2.5. I mean, it's just fight goes to a decision. Minus 300. Fight doesn't go. Plus 215. I thought about it, thought about doing something here.

And then I was like, I just shouldn't. I just shouldn't. This is a coin toss fight in women's MMA. Almost positive it's going to be a decision. What? Going to be a ton of clinch work. Bold choice from you, good sir. I mean, can you just see it now?

Just back and forth, you know, one of them has their back against the fence, flip it. You get knees thrown. striking numbers are just like identical. Like you really don't confidently know who won. You're going to cry robbery if the person that you bet on loss. Like it's not going to be a fun fight. You're going to be sweating as they're announcing the scorecards. And it's just not going to be an enjoyable experience for you.

So I decided to stay away. All I am on is the over two and a half in a parlay. Well, I mean, look, the over two and a half in a parley, is a great parley piece. It's in fact the exact parley piece I was mentioning earlier. So I'm now paired that up with the over two and a half and Strickland-imov.

That pays out of minus 111. Nice. Minus 11 is a good price for that, I think. Totally not bad. I thought about doing just goes to decision because it's minus 300, so I get you to like basically right on even. But just give me the over two and a half.

I'm trying to be simpler with my bets, not get too tricky. I feel like I expose myself with a little bit of trickeration. last year. I'm going to try and lower that some. But you're right. This is going to be a clinch fest, going to be a grind, not going to be a ton of huge moments. I also, because I'm just recognizing this, I want to throw out that Ketland Vieira's average fight time is 15 minutes and 27 seconds. So it's actually over the 15 minute time limit. So feels confident. I feel good about this

going to decision. The fact that her last two fights are main events is crazy. If she wins it, she's fighting Amanda Nunes for the Bannonoy-Dak title. Oh, yeah, yeah. Yep. But speaking of Amananunas, Raquel Pennington got their shit beat out of her by Amanda Nunes, but that's really the only people she's lost to are the elite of the elite this division.

You know, Holly Home twice, Germain Durandumee, and Vanonis. That's it. And Kevin Vieira's maybe there, but I actually. actually think this is a very good style matchup for. Yes, there's going to be a lot of clinch work. Pennington is pretty strong in the clinch, and Vera is not good. So I don't think she's going to score a ton of takedowns on Pennington. I think the clinch will just be a bit of a net even.

But at range, I think Pennington is just a better boxer. I think she's got tighter mechanics, better work all around, a little higher volume, better defense. It's small edges, but this fight is at worst 50-50 and I actually favor Pennington by just a little bit. So getting Pennington at a plus number,

I take it. I'm going to just go ahead and take it. Give me Rocky, Rocky Pennington plus one. Oh, you took it. You took it. Wow. Took her straight up. That's going to be a, that's going to be a sweat fest. If you

go back and look at Ketland-Vierre, like her last fight split decision, fight before that, 48, 47, fight before that 2928, fight before that 2928. Like she just, she is,

makes a habit of fighting an incredibly close fights. Another split decision, 2928. It's like she is, it is, I just have a feeling this fight is going to be very close. I mean, you know,

could take a look at split decision odds. Are you feeling frisky? I don't know how frisky I'm feeling. You give me like a plus 800 we could start talking, but if it's like a plus 250, I am out. Pennington is plus 800 by splitter majority. I can't choose a side. Yeah, I can't choose a side.

I've got no idea what's going to happen. I'm trying to see where they have this by determination. But, yeah, it's, you know, I understand. That's smart. It's very smart of you. I'm not going to be smart. Give me the plus one hondo on Rocky Pennington. Yes, enjoy.

Because here's the part you didn't factor in, Connor. It's the last thing I have to say on this fight, frankly, women's bandwage is a terrible, horrible division. And so you have to factor in that the funniest outcome will happen. And it's that the only person who remotely could be a sellable, cellable is even a stretch, but could be like a realistic title contender for men, Nunes, is obviously going to lose this very tough fight.

Yeah, yeah, I'm looking forward to this one. It's going to be great. Can't wait. We'll see you Saturday. I'll be thinking of you as it's going on. Let's get to the last fight on the main card, the people's main event. It's a bantam weight out.

Umar Namagamatov taking on Hione, Barcellos. I mean, my lord, does that name carry some weight? Umar Namagamatov opened up at minus 200. you can now get them at some books, well over a thousand, minus 1,000. On Draft Kings, he's currently minus 800. Heone Barcellos coming in. A bit of movement. Coming back at plus 575, fight goes to a decision minus 225.

Fight doesn't go plus 165. I mean, here's like just a simple breakdown. We have spoken the gospel of Ha'oni Barcellos on this show. I mean, he has done nothing but perform mixed martial arts at the highest level his entire life. Brazilian wrestling national champion, just like beautiful striking. I really enjoy watching Haoni-Barcelos

fight. Very tough. Great Jiu-Jitsu. Beautiful take-down defense, 93%. I think Umar Nomagamatov is going to win. I really do think he is the truth. He's probably going to make it fairly clear. But is he going to make it minus

1,100 clear? Like when I'm betting a minus 1100, which I almost never do. I really can't even think of a reason at this point to parlay up Umar. Like, I needed to be like Jelton-Omea levels, like where I just know this dude is going to come in and get the finish or like just crazy mismatches. I'm, uh, yeah, I mean, I think Umar and Magamadov wins,

but like at what point do we just take Haoni-Barsellos? You can get Haoni-Barsellos at a bet online right now for plus 800. That's a big, big number. That's a huge number. Should this man be a plus 800? I don't know. Here's the thing. This is just a stay away for me.

This fight is awesome. Yeah, it's going to be sick, I think. I don't. And for a brief moment looking at this fight, I was like, I, you could convince me to take a dog shot here. you know plus 600's big juicy number honey barceles really good fighter umar very very good fighter but maybe this is kind of the setback moment where howney's very good at stopping the takedowns umar doesn't necessarily need them but his game it is the straw that stirs the drink certainly

so where are we going but the problem is plus 800 seems huge it's 10% win probability if they fight 10 times maybe maybe how only wins one maybe wins two but i can't even feel confident in those things like i i can't be good about laying this big a price on umar because it's just like why would you but i don't even i need it to be if it's a thousand okay i don't think at eight hundred i'm on it though yet so just this is just to stay away for me and enjoy the hell out of this for what it is which is damn good fight if hey on unbar those hits plus a thousand do we have to play them be it's to a thousand i'll play them

that i feel that that because the concern for me is always and i know that actually statistically the difference between eight and a thousand isn't like huge but it definitely feels really big and it's just

when we're talking huge underdogs it's just it feels tough for me to i don't feel confident in my assessment of how much value exists here So, but if he gets to a thousand, that number is just so big. It's like, yep, all right, let's do it.

That number can't be right. So, you know, 100 bucks, pay my rent for the month. Down for that if he gets up to a G. But for anything less, I think I just have to stay away. I mean, dude, I saw a bunch of people freaking out about the Charles Johnson Jimmy Flickline movement. It was kind of a soft opener at minus 135 and it just tanked down. Like, I do understand the concern.

I mean, Umar and Ramagamatov, but minus 200. And like we're talking about minus like, I guess they just know something or people are just dumping money on Murmogamatov. I do think there's a difference in that I totally understand this line movement. I might not agree with it because I'm not betting Umar at this price. I'm not betting. I'm not keeping to dump money on it, though I'm sure that's what happened. if you gave me umar minus 200 that is a whoever opened that was not doing their job because that's just not like i would have

hopped on that uh but i get it there's the name the the flick johnson stuff that feels more like uh why is anyone dumping money on charles johnson you know yeah i understand the i understand the optics though i don't actually think that that's really any shady stuff going on there but like i don't think so this makes a lot more sense to me why this line plummeted than the johnson flick one necessarily did so i get it no lines are crazy man i i did parlay up umar last week uh he was at minus 350 though then when i parlayer much much better price that that is what i thought it was gonna be at it's kind of what like i thought i was like yeah we might get to like minus 500 minus 550 because he's in ramagametteov but man minus 1100 that's a that's a crazy number

right there. Henry Barcellos, plus a thousand, I think I just had to play it out of principle. Plus a thousand I am, in fact, playing it out of principle. But like,

here's for context, right? Like, Nate Menes, not nearly the fighter, how many Barcellus is. Nate Morales isn't the bad fighter. Minus 950. Brian Kelleher,

not as good a fighter as how many bracellos, minus 900. Sergei Marozoff, minus 540. Like, this feels like it is just the name, the performances he's delivered, the belief that he's the next dude.

And it's, it kind of doesn't matter who he's up against, you know? I think that, I think that this is just, they're going to bet him until he fights a top 10, Bannam White. They're just, the, the book's just going to move on him aggressively. Yeah, I mean, that's kind of where we're out with Jailton. Jailton next week, minus 900. Under, under one and a half is minus 300. Like, they're just like, you're not playing that.

unless you really want to pay for it. All right, let's move to the prelims. Let's run through them. Middle way about. Abdul Razak. You have a way more prelim action than I do, so this is largely going to be the Conner show moving on. All right, all right. This won't take long, then.

Abdul Razak al-Hasson going up against Claudio-Rabero. Right now you can have, I mean, another just like very close, closely lined fight. Right now you can have Ribeiro for minus 115, Abdul Razak-Al-Hasson. for minus 105. Over under set at one and a half under minus 220 over plus 180. Kind of agree with that over under. I mean, this just feels like a one hitter, quitter, just get in there, two wild strikers, two big K.O. power punchers and someone is just going to fall. Alhassen has never won outside the first round. Roberto, all 10 of his wins are by K.O., eight of them in the first round. I mean, I think they're just going to come in here.

Chuck them. And someone's just going to fall down. And in that case, very close odds, can't really trust. In my opinion, I can't really trust for Zak al-Hassan. Ribeiro is going to be younger, faster, bigger, yes, less experience, no doubt. I do agree with that. He does have a tendency to sometimes keep his hands down low, which does worry me. But I took him at Plus 105 last week. Robert?

Yeah, I think they're just going to come in and throw, and I think he's going to find the chin of Al-Hassan and put him out. Oh, God, this makes you feel so good. I did not get him at plus money, so this is not a wolfback wageer. But I'm with the owner Barrow. I would have gotten close. I mean, you can get him like minus 105 a couple books right now? I got him at minus 110, so he's just to pick him. I did not have a plus money option available to me.

But yeah, he's just kind of with you all the way. I was pretty surprised how close this line, especially when you factor in. I mean, one and four in his last five for Razak al-Hassan. Like he's 37 slower. I know Ribero hasn't beaten a bunch of world beaters, but he has largely looked good in his victories. He's done what you're supposed to do against that, you know, Lazzegov.

Asson was never really like that fast, and he's just only getting older. Yeah. Older, it's just, I think the speed advantage is for sure in Ribera's favor. And they both hit really, really hard, you know. My... I mean, size, too, dude. He's three inches.

taller and has a four-inch reach advantage. Like, he's going to be the bigger guy in there. Going to be the bigger, dude. I mean, there's maybe a marginal concern just because Abdul Razak Al-Assan has only been knocked out once, but we're talking Chaos Williams. Dude has big, big power, but I feel like

Ribero can bring the same sort of force to bear. So I thought Ribero would be a much bigger favorite, particularly given the skid Razak Al-Azan's been on. So, honestly, this felt a lot like my main event thought of. I thought this would be closer to minus two, minus 250.

I got pick a moths. Give me the pick of odds. Give it to me. Take it. All right, let's keep it rolling. A lightweight bout. Mateus Rebeki going up against Nick Fioro. Right now you can get Rebeki, the Polish man for minus 730 Fioro at plus 530.

Kind of interesting that we have four or five fights that are lined, minus 110, minus 115's. And then we also have three or four fights. got minus 730, minus 800, you've got some minus 340s, minus 360s in there, like an odd mixture. Only, only Sejara Eubanks is in the minus 200s right now. Anywho, anywho, yeah, I think, I think Fioro might be in over his head at this point. I mean, he's 6 and 0, yes, four of his opponents were under 500, and we get to go back to the well. because two of his six wins are against the legendary Jay Ellis. If you don't know Jay Ellis.

I didn't even look this up. If you haven't been listening to the show, Jay Ellis. I can't believe I didn't look this up. An absolute legend. 16 and 106 all time. I mean, the streaks this guy has been on losing. It's just unbelievable. Do you know?

We'll never forget. We'll never forget. We'll never forget the win over Gerald Mearshardt, the career night for Jail. Look, every time people start to talk about Gerald Mearshar, it's like, ooh, he's frisky or fun or good at fighting. I'm like, excuse me, he's one of a very elite 16 people. And that's not a group you want to be a part of, not the jail's victim list. I mean, this guy was just getting in the ring for years at a time. Like he went he went from May of 2009 to April of 2012 just racking up losses.

He lost, oh, 18 times in that span. Like at what point is it just like, I'm just going to hang it up. I'm just going to hang it up. He just, he does it for love of the game. Dude, I can't. He's got to be like, when he talks, he's got to be like punch drunk. Like, it's got to be. Because he's like, he's not just losing, dude.

he's getting finished in the first round in almost every single one of these. Bob's happening out there's like an agreement. A lot of them, never mind, never mind. I was going to say a lot of them are subs. A lot of them are knockouts still. First round.

Has anyone seen this man fight? 72 submission losses. See, that's where I wonder, like, does he just have an agreement where he's just like, all right, take my back,

choke me out, I'll tap immediately. I'm certain it's just that he's bad. and that's okay you know sometimes you're just not good you just get out there you learn 106 bad you like no one's life is about to have

a turn a career renaissance that you you're just never going to believe him and damon jackson late career service is incoming this dude has fought 122 times and he's been to a decision

just four times in his career the man gives you value for money he is going to come out 13 submission win Get her get got, baby. Get her get got. I'm glad you brought this up. I will peel back the curtain.

I didn't look at this fight because there's no world in which I'm going to lay minus 7.30 on between the Chicago. And I was like, this card isn't very good. I don't really want to do the study here. I'm looking at it now. God, I love, one of the reasons I love this sport is that it's a comical nonsense show. And Nick Fior fought J.L. in his pro debut, knocked him out in 50 seconds at Combat Zone 73.

Yeah, we're going to run that one back. God love Combat Zone. What a farcical place that is. And then CES, like a legitimate promotion. CES isn't like, it's not, you know, a world beater, but that is a competent, realistic promotion that has been around for years, does find stuff, a regional show. And then they're like, I know you just knocked this. down in 50 seconds. What if you knock him out again?

You know. Do you mind doing that for us? A year and a half later. He improved in that time. He made it to the minute 29 mark. But Jesus, what are we doing? Then he's got a three and nine went over Jerome Mickle. And then his win to get into the UFC. Combat zone, the most nonsense organization in the world, other than maybe explode fight series. A five and 19 dude. He'd be. It's a five and 19 guy to get his call up to the to the UFC. What are we doing, people?

I mean, I, like, I honestly don't know. I mean, especially because J. Ellis just lost seven straight fights in between the 50-second knockout. I mean, it's, it really is just crazy. And the fact that, like, he fought Jay Ellis in January of 2020 and then fought J.L.S. again in August of 2021 is, is just crazy to me. I mean, Fuero, he hasn't been longer than, he hasn't even reached the four-minute mark in a fight. He's been, he's just crushing cans. Like, that's essentially all he's doing here. Going up against the guy in Rebecca, who all of his, four of J-A-of-Furo's wins are against people under 500.

All of Rebecca's 16 wins, he's fighting real opponents. They're all over 500. Like, he has fought some good. He has never fought someone who didn't have a winning record. Yes, like he's fighting good dudes. He's, you know, he's fighting a Magu Med, Magamad. Double Magamad. Yeah, not of our fame, but still a Magamemad, Magamadav.

Like, he's fighting really solid dudes. Gets like an impressive win on the contender series. Like, I trust him to come in here and get this done. I think he is likely just going to finish Fero in the first round. I am on the under one and a half. I'm on Rebecca inside the distance and I parlayed up. Fight does not go. What's from Becky inside the distance?

distance. I took it minus 185. I want to say that's, that's still hanging around somewhere. Mine is 225 on DK. Yeah, I'm just not. I'm going to stick to my guns of, I'm sure he's going to win because why wouldn't he? But I can't have any level of confidence because who the hell knows? That's true. Who the hell does now? Probably not me. So when Furrow wins by decision? I'm trying to make less just reckless bets this year. This plan is not going to hold up for longer than three events. I honestly don't think this is that reckless. I really have no faith in Firo coming in here.

I mean, maybe he starts him. I don't have any faith in him coming in to get the finish. He very well could. Rebecca, he's like a very good fighter, but I don't know. The New England cartel boy is tougher than $2 steak. So maybe he just styles on him for a bunch. who I just I'm not going to bet on something I have really is totally a guess on my part. All right.

Let's keep it rolling. Men's Bantamweight bout. Someone, oh, someone's O has to go. Mateus Mendonka going up against Javid Bachelot. Right now you can get Bosharat 4 minus 350, Mendoza 4 plus 290. I mean, we talk about crazy records. Mendoca coming in here. Mateas starts the pro career with a bank.

seven fights from July to December of 2019, I believe it was. I mean, that's a lot of pro fights. Wins them all, wins them all in impressive fashion. He's got power. He's only 23. Like, I feel like this is a little bit of an early. Say, don't bury the lead. Those seven pro fights are they came when he was 18, 19, you know?

Which, I mean, he's a dog, dude. I mean, that's, that's a crazy mentality to do that. He is still really young. Like, I feel like this is kind of a tough test. for him to get his start in the UFC. Like, Boshrod, a lot of people were calling him a can crush early on, but his last four fights have been against pretty tough competition, and he's looked good, like he showed cardio.

I think if he avoids the power shot, he's likely going to win. Is the price completely justified? I can't say for certain against a guy that can put you out at any time in Mateus, but I feel like Boshraat probably gets this done. I did parlay him up with that Umar and Armaghamatov that I mentioned earlier. Yeah, this was just another stayaway for me. If I'm picking him, probably picking Basharat. You're taking a sport approach, you.

Really good. But I wanted to do a Mateus parley, but then I would never parlay Mateus Baton, plus 300 or whatever, just for the gimmick of it. And I was like, oh, well, if I can't do the Mateus Parlay, then. No. What's the point? It's no point at all. Let's keep it moving.

Finally. I mean, it's been almost a year, and we are back. It is. Amen's flyweight bout. Alan Nassamento taking on Carlos Hernandez. Yep, you can get Nassimento for minus 340. Hernandez coming back at plus 280. Who cares the over under.

Set a two and a half over minus 175 under plus 145. Break it down for the people. Tell me. How does this under two and a half hit for us? Okay. We have to have a talk, Connor. No. We have to have one.

I'm not going to do it. It's, we're just, look, I'm, I'm going to lead off by telling you the bet that I've made. I've taken the under two and a half minus 180. I'm riding with the flywood unders because that's what we do here. Whoa, you took it at minus 180? It's minus 180. What? Is it's current stance.

Nassimento Hernandez. Let me confirm that that, yeah. I'm sorry, under two and a half plus 145. Sorry. I was looking at the other side. I was about to say. But yeah. I don't feel great about this one, man.

And we got another one coming up that I don't feel great about. And I just, I'm riding with it. But I have concerns that what if Flyweight Unders was a 20-22 thing? What if it's that? that a thousand percent crossed my mind it could be and this is so i wanted to pitch to you we've got two to start the year right here yeah i'm riding them i want to see if the magic's still there but if it is if it was just a 22 dream to live maybe this is the bellwether for us maybe this lets us know we go oh and two on flywood unders here maybe this lets us know that they aren't

the dream bet for 2023 and we have to find the new one yeah yeah the year because you you don't want to go to the old gag. You want to skate to where the puck is, not where it was. So I just have some concerns here. I'm with you. I'm on it. Listen, I actually love that you brought this up because I am a little bit concerned, and we actually have, in the next fight,

something that we can get into. Here's what I say we do. We take these two. We take these two that we're both pretty concerned about, and then next week for the flyweight championship of the world. I'm not going that's it.

I'm not going to not take a flyweight under in the flyweight championship of the world. That's just not who I am. Okay, that's just not how my character works. I mean, we are men of integrity. I know it could have been a 2022 bet. I don't know. We're going to have to let the science speak for itself. But I'm not going to sit on the sidelines for a flyweight championship of the world.

I promise you that. So here's what we do. Just as a teaser, under four and a half. plus 130 on that fight as it sits at the moment. I'm going to have to take it. It could have been minus 500. I still would have been forced to take it. So I feel like the only way we get this Nassimento one is probably by Nassimento sub.

Seems the most likely chance for us. 14 of his 19 wins. I think he's going to get it to the mat. Does he get the submission? I don't know. Hernandez has decent BJJ skills. That's tough. Yeah, it's tough.

I think Nassimento gets. gets it done. I'm going to say he gets it done by sub. I did parlay him of that finishes the Basharat Umar parlay. A little three legs plus one's 13. And of course, yeah, I'm on the, uh, the under at plus one 45. So fingers crossed that flyweight under is that the magic continues. Here's what we say. Here's what I say. I say we take these three flyweight unders. We got these two. We got the championship. We come out ahead. We know the flyweight unders still have the magic in them. Come out behind. We maybe have to reevaluate. where the flyweight under train goes from here.

So we'd have to go two and one then. We would need to go two and one. Can certainly be done three and oh. I think we can clearly say when we go three and no, flywood unders never lost the juice. They're here to stay forever and ever. But certainly 0 and 3 to start off 2023, that would give me a lot of pause about.

There would be no pause. There would be a funeral for flyweight hunters. They would officially be dead in the war. water. True. But I don't think it's going to happen. I'm going to choose to believe. We're going to see.

We're going to see one and two. One and two, we're going to have serious questions. We're going to have, we're going to have to really look inward and see what we're going to go from there. Soul search. Two and one. Two and one, we continue them. And it would actually be kind of great if they went one and one this week and then the

Flyweight Championship of the world decided whether we continue. I think that's what we do. If they go one and one this week, we decide whether Flyway unders continue based on the Flyway Championship of the world. That's just too perfect. If they go on two this week, probably out regardless,

but I'll still take the Flyway Championship. Yeah, give me a nice one in one this week. So let's just move on to the next one. Right now, as we go through it, Jimmy Flick, Charles Johnson, Flyway bout, you know what it is. Line's been blown up a little bit.

Charles Johnson minus 340, Flick plus 280. I mean, this one, like, I feel a little bit better about Flick. Four of his five losses are by K.O. Charles Johnson has been known to knock people out. Flick, pretty much, if he's going to win, it's going to be by sub. 14 of his 16 wins coming by way of submission. So, like, there is real opportunity here.

But here's the thing. Charles Johnson has failed us on Flyweight Unders twice. He is an enemy of the state. twice in a five-month span and if he does it for a third time, especially at this price, which I took it at minus 170, like if he fails us at this,

I'm taking minus 170 on a flyweight under. And if he fails us for a third time, for a third time in a six-month span, I mean, you talk about enemy of the state. We're talking about it. We're talking about No Betz Barth most wanted number one on the list,

Mr. Charles Johnson. Like we, if this one goes over, yeah. It's tough, man. And I think this one, I mean, it could, but I don't know, Johnson is so. My issue with Johnson is that you got to watch how the fights have unfolded too. Because, you know, him going to the cards against Mohamed Makhoyev against Zalgus, I can't remember how to pronounce that man's name off the top of my head. It's...

Zuma gulov. Zumagulov. There you go. It's just aggressively, aggressively, defensively responsible. Just not going to give up anything that he can. And he's going to fight tooth and nail. And while that's good for being a fighter, it's terrible for what we want here. I got a lot of concerns.

But I'm choosing to believe... I almost took a shot on Jim. flick just for funsies but i can't you're going to do that yeah i would say do jimmy flick by sub oh well yeah that there's no line out there um but yes at some point but yeah i there's just a pass but you take the under you hope we've already talked about it don't need to go into it any further all right let's move on final fight on this card it is a women's flyweight bout priscilla Keceweira taking on Sejara UBanks. Can't believe I'm about to say this, but you can get

Sejara U banks from minus 240 Priscilla Ketra coming back at plus 200. The over under, set it two and a half under minus 155 over plus 125. So what I did is took an alt over one and a half, minus 155. I mean, you give me a women's MMA fight. I'm getting the over one and a half at a playable price

and catchware of five over eight UFC fights gone over the one and a half and then Sajara Eubanks like I mean just come on like nine of her ten have gone over the one and a half eight have gone the full three rounds she's also the minus two 50 favorite if she's going to try and win this fight I think she's going to try and depend on the wrestling racking up control time I just can't pass up on these odds of an over one and a half at a playable price that is a very playable price I love I like that bet a lot my last bed of the evening I am here. I took, as stupid as it is, I took Priscilla Casuarra.

I don't think it's that stupid, dude. Struy Binks is 7 and 7, and she is minus 250 going up against someone who does have that finishing capability. And as we learn in the Gen U. Frey fight, she has an ability to get the optics of the judges on her side because she's so violent and aggressive with the way she throws her punches. And optics is the right word for my thought process here. is, look, she has lost to some not great people for being real. But, I mean, she also lost to some very great people. But when she fights, she looks like she is fighting. She looks like she is trying to hurt you because she is.

And that is not Sajara Eubanks' game. I think Casuala is not a great defensive wrestler, but she's competent. And Eubanks is getting a little older coming off that tough loss. stay or tegato it's just i don't have any belief in sajari u banks this is a much more of a fade of sajara ubanks than it is you know really believing in priscilla cashawara but plus 200 i thought i'd take a shot first fight of the year let me get in with a little plus two hundo cash kick off 2023 right baby i mean i think either way one of us will cash hopefully both but I think it's either this thing's going the distance or Ketcheruera it knocks her out early.

So it's one of us will hit the first bet of the year. Love it. And that's it. And that's it. And that's it. That's all. One last thing that I did think about, Umar and Mugamatov sub plus 400, stupid bet. It's not stupid. I would want that price to be more than plus 400. Hey, I only never been finished. But I mean, like, you like, can you like confidently play a minus, 1100 and not be like this dude's just going to finish him in the first round like you're

depending on a decision you're having to trust the judges with a minus 1100 yeah no no i don't think it's stupid to do this up for hondo but not won't be my bet can we also use this last moment to say as we come into this year i know you talk to dk you know you talk you talk to the kings of of m mhm can they please you can they please start giving us some bonus props. I desperately want to be betting on things like who will win fight of the night. Give me those options, draftings. Oh, okay. I see what you're saying. I see what you're saying.

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I can put it in their ear. Are they going to listen to me? I don't know. Some books have done it historically. Don't see it that much anymore. I don't, none of I have access to. Those were just my favorite bets. Just be like, all right, this is going to be fire the night. We've got a performance of the night bonus. Give me some options. Some options to say, this fighter's going to win a performance of the night bonus. Open up the opportunity for me to give you more money, Jeff King.

It's all I'm asking for. Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you. I mean, I can throw it out there. Their big thing right now is the same game parlay is they are. They love those. I mean, who doesn't love the SGP, you know? Get out there, get after him.

Just moved from New York. York to New Jersey and my my my prop market has has widened oh has it very much so New York was incredibly limited so SGP my situation I'm about to be throwing in some some samesies coming in 2023 I love to hear that but um that's it my man I think that's it dude that's it let's go and wrap this one up. I feel like a little underwhelmed. Like I feel a little underwhelmed. It's a four o'clock start.

It's in the apex. Don't love the entire slate of the card. You know, I'm going to have that down. We're going to have fun. We're going to watch it. We're going to enjoy. But I feel like we're really going to kick this thing off in front of that Brazilian crowd next week.

Two title fights. Paper view. Big time money. I'm looking forward to 283. I'm looking forward to breaking that one down. So that's it for now. Go dogs. And we'll see you next week for UFC 283, Rio de Janeiro.

We'll love you guys.