MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira Duke It Out To Decide Who Is The Real BMF At UFC 326

Episode Date: March 5, 2026

This Saturday, the UFC returns with its third numbered event of 2026, UFC 326, headlined by a BMF title fight between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Two of the most accomplished fighters competing in the UFC today, it's a bout between future Hall of Famers, where legacies, and possibly title shots, may be defined. And No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, Jed Meshew is joined by Luke Noseda, AKA Long Island Luke, from Morning Kombat and The Main Card Minute, to dive into all things UFC 326. Topics discussed include how competitive the main event between Holloway and Oliveira will be, why the odds are so long in the co-main event between Caio Borralho and Reinier de Ridder, if this is Raul Rosas Jr.’s breakout moment, which undercard action is worthwhile and which is just filler, a new Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 150 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Getting ready for a game means being ready for anything, like packing a spare stick. I like to be prepared. That's why I remember, 988 Canada's Suicide Crisis Helpline. It's good to know, just in case. Anyone can call or text for free confidential support from a train responder anytime. 988 Suicide Crisis Helpline is funded by the government in Canada. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard.

A little bit late. to schedule this week because I was doing other shit earlier this week. I don't know if you've heard of it. It's called Morning Combat. And I was on it on Monday. And another man who was on it on Monday is right here with me as we talk UFC 326 this week, the BMF title fight. I'm speaking of course, man who, no stranger to these airwaves.

Long Island Luke of Main Card Minute, Morning Combat and Prop Quiz. Luke, no seat. Luke, Jay. How we doing? How we feeling? good to be back February was a dry month for us you know we had no pay-per-view

you know I only really come on the show for these numbered events so you know we technically did have a pay-per-view well we had the January 31st yeah we technically

that well I mean because in in Australia it was the first in the month of February so yeah but it still feels like a while you know five weeks whatever

and it's good to be back bro yeah I'm sorry that you're back for this card because as we talked about our morning combat. There are five fights. We've got five fights and maybe if you want to squint your eyes and dare to dream, there might be a couple more,

but this is really a main card pay-per-view sort of event. But before we get to that, I do want to do a brief recap of UFC Mexico because I haven't got to say this in a very long time because 2025 was such a bad year for me, betting-wise. we are positive this year. Like firmly up three units. Cashed like two and a half units last week.

That does not take into account the climb, which failed because Daniel Zell Huber, my mortal enemy now. But we knew that that was frankly extremely possible. So we will ball up top, re-rack them and run the climb again this week. I've got a bet that I feel very good about. Just one,

just a solo climb this week. And actually, I've got a very light card as far as UFC 326 goes. I've got one parlay and just a smattering of bets here. But like I said, I think this card is mostly poop. And so I'm not deeply invested. Luke, I know you will have a bet on every fight on this card, as is your way. So you might have to carry some load here because this prelim stuff is mostly not to my taste. I'm used to carrying the prelim slop, the apex slop, as some people like to call it.

So this card is no stranger. But you're right, terrible card. I mean, the five fights, fantastic. We're going to have a lot of fun watching them. But I mean, this is not a paper paper. This is not a numbered event. It is. This really does feel like a middle of the road UFC Mexico.

Like if they did this at like a UFC Winnipeg or like that would be pretty solid because of the main event. but alas, it is where it is. But that main event I am very interested in, it is the BMF title fight. Max Holloway looking to make the second defense of his BMF title championship, the only fighter to have one successful title defense looking to add to this kind of curious legacy

because the BMF belt is obviously a little, a little different people view it a little differently. We talked about that on MK. Some people like you think it's bullshit. some people like me think it's great as long as they keep it exactly as they've kept it. But even if you set this title aside, this is a fight that has been building for 10 plus years, frankly, as Max Holloway takes on Charles Olivera. Max, your betting favorite mine is 225, olivera plus 180. This is, of course, a rematch of a fight that happened over a decade ago that

ended super weirdly down at featherweight. Charles was dropping down. uh he had a throat injury it was all it was deeply unsatisfying and after that they both went on to have enormously successful hall of fame careers and now they are meeting again probably for being honest at the tail end of their careers but still very much in the thick of things and lightweight this could be a you know there are title implications outside of the bmf title real quote unquote title implications here and max holloway is your betting favorite minus two 25 charles olivar plus one 180 max Four of his last five he has gotten his hand raised including his most recent one a unanimous decision win over Dustin Poitier and Porier's

Poyer's possible retirement fight. I know he's already already maybe maybe making some noise about coming back, but theoretically 318 was the last time Poyer would compete and then Charles Oliver, three and two over his past five coming off a little bit of a surprising dominant win over Matush Kmart at UFC Rio. Not surprising that he won in general, but surprising because it was a very quick turnaround for Olavera after getting his lights

put out by lightweight champion Alia Tuporia. Luke, I'm going to lead off here just very quickly because we talked about it on MK and I am extremely confident in Max Holloway. I think he is going to run rough

shot over Charles Olivera. I think this fight lines up very well for Max for a lot of reasons and for that reason. Max Holloway is my climb this weekend. Right in the main event, right up top. Let's go. Let's go. Jed, I got to say you did a lot of I don't know if you even realize, but you did a lot of convincing on my end for this fight. I wasn't like Max or die for this fight or anything. But as, you know, we did MK with weeks gone on a little bit. I'm like, I'm kind of, I see where your head's at. You mentioned their first fight, dude, almost 11 years ago. it also lasted 99 seconds. Like there's literally nothing we can take away from that fight.

It's almost like it didn't even happen. You know what I mean? Like nothing at all. And like I haven't gone back to watch it because I so vividly remember at the time, the circumstances being so weird that like the immediate reaction was Charles probably had a preexisting injury and just fought anyway. And then it was weird. Because like it's not like he got like throat chopped and his throat.

Like it was just like he had a. throat injury. It was super, super weird. Like one of the stranger things that's been kind of lost to history, especially because like the narrative after that fight

for a long time. And frankly, for a lot of Oliver's career was like, Charles Oliver is not really built for this. You know, he's kind of, he's a bit of a front runner.

And then that followed him right up until he won the lightweight title by continuing to come back from getting dropped. So maybe also an opportunity. for Charles to exercise some of those demons. For sure. I was definitely one of those people, too, throughout the years up until him winning the title that was like,

Charles is a quitter, this guy's going to make him quit, this guy's going to, and then he's just finishing everyone and whatever. But anyways, dude, this fight, Holloway, only lost to current champions since April of 2019. We're talking Volk three times and Ilya once. I mean, yeah, it's four losses there, but current champion, like that is a wild stat, seven years span, only losing the current champions.

I mean, he's also just, only lost to champions in his career. Well, Porre, I mean, you want to count an interim. Poirier, BMF champion, which again, we'll get out of here with that. Come on. Real Belt and an interim champion. Now, that's it, you know. BMS is fun.

Oh, I guess he also lost to Dennis Bermuda. I forgot that he lost a Dennis for years. See, Long Island legend. He can't forget Bermuda's. But, dude, Oliver, you mentioned he's three and two in his last five. He's also alternated wins and losses in his last seven. You know me. I love a little gimmick, a little pattern, whatever you want to call it.

He's dual loss. He's due. He's due. He's due a loss. He's dual loss. He's a dual loss here. He also has... Were you going to argue with science?

You're going to argue with science? Yeah, seriously. That's math. I don't know to tell you. We should probably just end the breakdown here. He's also only lost the current champion since December 2017, with the exception of Armand Sarukin. But, you know, there's a world where, like, Armand should be champion now, so we're not

going to knock him for that. First thing I noticed here... Can't be a beaten up influencers. First thing I noticed here, Chad, is their age. It's only a two-year age gap, right? It feels like 100. Do Bronx? 50 pro fights been finished in nine of them that's an old ass 36 max holloway

34 no spring chicken himself but you got to look at this with the exception of ilia to poria the amount of power punches this man is fought and ilia's the only one who was able to crack his chin like my man's got longevity at the same time he's only two fights removed from that is max's chin gone we we got to see we got to see i don't know poria didn't really test it i don't think But Charles, probably going to need to take down here or getting it to the ground at least if he wants a chance of winning. It does average over two takedowns per 50 minutes. This will be a five-round fight,

closer to three or four takedowns per 25 minutes. And although Max has a solid 83% takedown defense, he was taken down in six of his eight UFC losses. So certainly on the table. Jed, I mentioned you were a big motivator influence or whatever you want to call it on my side this week. I was like dead set on the over one and a half. I was like, I'm definitely going to take the over one and a half,

it's probably the same odds as max money line and i felt just way safer with the over one and a half turns out it's double the odds of it's like minus 350 and max is like minus 200 so i was like i don't trust the two and a half here i don't really know what else i'm feeling so i'm also riding with max money line taking it in a parlay let's fucking go blessed yeah man like i think i just think this fight lines up super well for him if charles can get takedowns very early that is i'll i'll just be curious because even the people have taken Max down have not really done much

with it, right? Like these, you look at like the amount of control time that Max gives up when he's taken down. It's low. He is, nobody's getting there. But Charles is definitely the most dangerous for those guys. So like, if Volt gets you down, he's not going to sneak his way to your back. Like, that's just not

his game. But if Charles can find a way to maybe work a backpack ride or even just get a clinch and then maybe hit a shuck by and sort of clamber his way at Max's back. Things certainly get more interesting, but we just really haven't seen that happen with Max. Like that's,

he is not susceptible to that sort of game. Conversely, like Charles is, Charles's chin is held up better than I thought. He went back and watched the Gamrod fight a couple of times. Matush Gamrod is not a power puncher. Don't mistake me.

He eats several pretty big right hands from Gamrock because he is just running into him. Like he is recklessly charging Gamrod down. And considering how quick he was coming off getting sparked, like I did not anticipate that

or frankly just his ability to take those shots and seem totally fine. So his chin appears to not be like totally gone. He's never been the most durable, right? Like he gets dropped a lot and his grappling sort of allows him to recover. But the one of the like the biggest thing

as I went and looked back at this fight. And I was even leaning Max pretty strongly before, but as I started watching more, is two things. And they're both tied to the same thing, which is, I think Max Holloway is a different fighter at lightweight proper

than, you know, when he fought Dustin Porre at lightweight the second time and was just kind of taking a venture up here. Because a couple of critical things about Max Holloway, he was always a really big featherweight. And I think this not, not cutting weight is or not cutting as much weight.

The move up to lightweight is going to help his chin, which was starting to go. Like, it's not gone, certainly, but, you know, he got dropped by Justin Gaechi.

He got obviously stopped by Ilya to Pura. You're old. You've been fighting for 20 years. Eventually crack start to form and even the most legendary of chins like Max has. But I do think the moving up in weight helps them a little bit in this durability regard, right?

Like he just, he is not as drained to make this. and I also think that we have seen it help him tangibly in the power regard. He was never a big puncher at Featherweight. It was more an accumulation of damage. But I mean, in that fight with Dustin Porier in July, he drops Porreux almost immediately, like just with a right hand just catches him because he's carrying a little more natural power.

We remember the 300 finish of Justin Geichi. Like I think that he is, this is a good, like way to end his career. right to come up and have sort of these fights and he can have some some real tangible advantages that line up really well against the charles olivera who is just aging without getting any extra benefit to moving up in wait or something like that so i i really think this is going to be a showcase for max holloway uh and given that obviously i've made in my climb i also have a secondary bet on this because i i mean you said it Charles Oliver, he's lost 11 fights,

nine of them he's been stopped. When he loses, he almost always gets finished. And I think over 25 minutes, Max Holloway is going to get that done. So I also have a bet on Max Holloway by KOT, KO at plus 145. I like that. I might tell you on that. A Holloway, K.O. bet does seem good.

What are you pointing at right now? Are you flying there? There's a dog outside my window that I'm sending away. I see you pointing. Sorry, Sorry everyone can't see this on video right now, but it's... Oh, I'm going to cut this. That's fine.

No, I like to leave this in. This is great. There's a dog who lives in my neighborhood and comes and just begs treats and sits at the window, and I can't get up to doing this. So I'm just like, hey, go away. Oh, that's fun. Happens constantly on our various shows on air.

Maybe I will leave this and you guys can see how the sausage is made. Dude, I weirdly feel like I'm with you on this max k-o bed especially over five rounds the over-under is set at two and a half but like am I weird to like I don't even want to say this out loud because I don't know if I actually believe this but like I kind of see this going the distance is that crazy

I mean it could Max is not like a huge finisher really like in general but I think Charles is just going to keep running headlong into him to try and force things and Max is going to just tag him up a bunch so

I will note that trial, like the decisions Charles have gone to lately, like, have mostly been later in his career, but, you know, Armin notably, but 25 minutes. Chandler, too, didn't that go the distance? Yeah, he won that one.

Oh, true, you're talking to this. Yeah. It's so, you know, it's, I can see it happening. This is not like I'm going to bet my house, because this is a guarantee. I think the plus 145, though, is, I think it is more likely that this fight stops than not. And I think it's much more likely that

maxed opposite, so I like the value on plus 145. Moving on to the co-main event, which maybe wasn't going to be the co-main event for a while, the UFC famously released a graphic with TBD for co-main event, and this was not the fight. This was the feature bout under that graphic that they never replaced. So here we are, a middleweight contest as Kayo Bahalio takes on Renier de Hither. Hineythe-Hither, as I like to call him, RDR, the Dutch knight, my favorite Maybe not my favorite guy, but one of the Michoud family of fighters, one of my two twin sons in the middleweight weight class with Drickus duplice.

Bahalio, a big betting favorite. Mine is 275. The comeback on DeHidder, plus 220, it's DeRitter. I should actually say that more appropriately. The comeback on Derritter at plus 220, Kayo is four and one over his past five coming off the unanimous decision loss to Nasrudinimov, at UFC Paris in September. Meanwhile, RDR also 4-1, 4-0 in the UFC,

until he fought Brandon Allen at UFC Vancouver in October and ended his run abruptly. Brennan Allen a replacement opponent, but, you know, strong start got whooped in the end. How are we feeling about this co-main event, Luke? First thing that stuck out to me is the odds immediately. So then I got to dive. I got to dive deeper.

I got to look at the numbers. I got to justify these odds a little bit. So, Boahlio does land more strikes per minute, but he also gets hit more often. So like, okay, no real advantage there. Both guys, obviously known to grapple. RDR, though, actually averages twice as many takedowns per 15 minutes. Not only that, he's taken down all of his UFC opponents at least twice. The only exception being Bo Nichael, who he finished on the feet anyway, didn't need to take him down.

Bo Jolio been taken down by two different opponents in the UFC. So it's totally on the table for RDR to get him down. I wanted to dive into the takedown numbers a little more because it doesn't really tell us at all. If we dive a little deeper, RDR, averaging over five minutes of control time in his five UFC bouts, he's had top control for at least two minutes in all five of those bouts. That includes the bow-nickel fight. So that's pretty fucking impressive. Bolio, comparatively, I'm only taking his last five fights because RDR only has five UFC fights, averaging a minute 43 of control time. Yes, I know he hasn't grappled as much in his last few fights,

but you still got to take that into consideration. We did see RDR gases last time out. You mentioned at UFC Vancouver, but it was his fifth bout in an 11-month span. I kind of just think he was, you know, too much too soon kind of thing. It was also a five-round fight. This is only a three-round fight, and the odds just seemed fucking crazy.

I just told you why RDR is going to have the advantage. I'm taking a flyer on. I'm got him at plus 250. Let's go. Where are my gloves? Come on, heat. any day now. Winter is hard, but your groceries don't have to be.

This winter, stay warm. Tap the banner to order your groceries online at voila.ca. Enjoy in-store prices without leaving your home. You'll find the same regular prices online as in-store. Many promotions are available both in-store and online, though some may vary. Nice. I am also on RDR. I think everyone who listens to this program was very obvious.

RDR is my family member, my large adult son. my medium-sized adult son. And I love him. And I do think these odds are crazy. Like I expected, and it's probably even fair that Kyle Bahalio be the betting favorite in this, right? Like he's a very talented grappler in his own right. And certainly a better striker, like broadly speaking. But a couple of things that I, you know, I'll add on to what you've noted.

One, RDR is just enormous. He is going to be a much bigger human being than Kyle Bahalio. in there, which to my mind is what happening against Brendan Allen. Now, I'm not saying Brendan Allen wouldn't win if they fought under ideal circumstances, but RDR is a huge dude to be cutting weight five times in 11 months span. And considering how dominant he was in the first round of that fight, that he just fell off a cliff, to me suggest that his body gave up on him because it is not like Brendan Allen made him work.

he was kicking Brendan Allen's ass. If you watch fighting, when you're kicking people's ass, you usually don't get that tired because you are in control of the pace. But to me, maybe this is just homerism. Could be wrong.

You know, if you disagree, that's fine. But to me, this was, hey, he put his body through hell way too much too often.

And, you know, you reap what you sow. It's had plenty of time off since then, six months or whatever since October. should be well set up for this. The other thing, you know, I just, I think you can be very critical of Kyle Baha'aio's career

if you start putting it under the microscope. And maybe that's unfair. But if you start looking at who Kaya Baha'aio is beaten, none of them are bad wins, right? Like, there's no, like beating Arm on Petrosion, solid. Mikhailo Likestek. solid. He's actually on a pretty good run right now.

Abis Magamatov? Paul Craig. Eh. His best win of his career, though, is Jared Canineer, and it was a great performance, but that's Jared Canineer pushing 40. That's not prime Jared Canineer. And so I think this would be the best win of his career, in my estimation. And over three rounds against a guy who I think has some very clear physical advantages,

And to your point, you know, maybe he doesn't just tap Kyle Bahalio if he gets him down. But we haven't really seen a lot of dudes get out from underneath RDR when he gets that position. And in a three-round fight, he just needs two of them. Two takedowns, a couple of knees to the tummy, wrap it up, cash my plus 220. So of course I'm riding with my boy, Kyle Bihalio get wrecked, RDR forever. The Dutch Knight rises. Add him to the club. You won't.

I won't, you're correct. That is an accurate assessment of this. We're starting back at the bottom. We're trying to build here. That's why you've got to just go big from the first leg. You have nothing to lose, you know? No, no, no, no, no. I'd like to build some momentum.

This is a momentum game, the climates. Let's keep our momentum. Let's go to the feature bout of the evening. Rob Fontaigne, Ronald Roses, Jr. in a bantamweight contest. Font, a longtime veteran. But he is the underdog, kind of as expected, plus 180. Raul Rosas Jr. minus 225. Roses on a four-fight wind streak coming off a unanimous decision win over Vince Morales at UFC Mexico last March, fought two and three over his past five,

coming off a unanimous decision loss to David Martinez, who just competed at UFC Mexico last weekend. He last fought at UFC San Antonio in September. To note, I didn't really note any of the first. these other ones earlier, though, because they're what you'd expect. But I was a little surprised when I looked at this. Rob Font, six and three is a betting underdog.

So he cashes a lot of underdog tickets. Roses Jr., 5'1 is a betting favorite. Luke, how are we feeling about the feature bout of the evening? First, I want to say, I'm not surprised at all that Rob Fon has a great record as a dog, because I think I've bet on him his last three fights.

You mentioned he lost the David Martinez and that one, but the John Matsumoto and the Kyler Phillips, he cashed like plus 200 in both of those. So let's go Rob Fon. Jed, classic striker versus grappler matchup here. Pretty excited to actually see how this one plays out. I think we'll get a lot of answers about Raul Rosas in this fight. He lands a pretty anemic though, 1.51 strikes per minute.

But he also barely gets hit absorbing 1.37 strikes per minute, which is like damn low. Font, on the other hand, though, lands three times the amount of strikes per minute. He also gets hit twice as often, but I'm not knocking that because, again, Rosas's Strikes per minute absorbed is so damn low that, you know, twice that is no big deal. If this stays standing, it's 100% Rob's fight to lose. But I think like all people are probably thinking he's going to end up on his back at some point. Rosas averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes. He has taken down his last three opponents at least three times each.

Fon, 43% takedown defense, not great at all, was taken down a combined 22 times in his last five fights, including getting taken down four plus times in four of his last five fights. Worth noting, though, he won two of those fights. But either way, could see a world where Font can get the upset, but I don't really trust either side here enough to put money there. I'm instead taking the over one and a half in a parlay. Rob has hit it in eight of his last nine, and Rosas has hit it in three of his last five.

Rosas was also eight seconds away from hitting it in four of his last five. So either way, I think this one, you know, I'm a little worried like Rob's going to get subbed in like round one. But I think if he can hold on for round one, this goes the distance regardless of who wins. So I like the over one in the head. That's interesting. I don't hate that.

I will add to the sort of context you gave there. Ralph Vaughn did win two of those ones where he got taken down a bunch. But neither Kyler Phillips nor Jean Matamoto are like a grappling first fighter. And so pretty big difference when Raul Roses Jr. gets you down. I think he's going to get him down. I think this is,

the EFC knows what they're doing. They want to build Al Roses Jr. into something into maybe the face of Mexican MMA because right now all of their previous stars

are falling. So they need somebody new. Brandon Moreno might be cooked. Alex Grasso might be cooked. Like where are they going? This is, he's still 21 years old and they've been pushing him

for years at this point. So this feels like a set up fight that they know what they're getting. But credit to Rob Font, he has consistently in his career turned back this exact fighter, right? You know, they tried to do it with Adrian Yanias and Rob Font said no. They tried to do it with Kyler Phillips and Rob Font said no. Shee Matsamoto. Rob Font said no.

His lot in life has been to turn back the next guys up trying to break in and say, not on me, you won't make your name here. at 38 years old and just with a really bad take down defense, I think this is on him. So I am taking Roll Roses Jr. straight up. Again, my mind is 220. And that is fine. I was flirting with the by sub prop,

which a couple of books, is in that minus, or the plus 350-ish range. Rob Font is historically an extremely durable man. I think he has been stopped just once. It was by submission, and it was a very long time ago, Pedro Munoz, like a decade ago. But if you're spending this much time on the ground,

Rau Rousas wants to get it. I think, though, it is more likely that this fight goes long and probably does make it to the final cards. So no other action on this for me, but Rau Rau Rousis Jr. straight up is where I'm going. and we are going to the lightweight division 155 pounds for what I think is just going to be a good time. You know, maybe not the most meaningful, maybe not the prettiest fight, but just a good old, good old banging one.

As Drew Dober takes on Michael Johnson in what should be a straight up slogfest, Dober plus 105, Michael Johnson, minus 130. Money has continued to come in on Drew Tober as this week has progressed. So honestly, this may well just be a straight-up pick-em by fight night and hard to blame him if it is frankly Dober on a worst run right now, shockingly, is Michael Johnson pushing 40 but on a three-fight winning streak. If he wins this fight, it will be tied for his best winning streak in the UFC, which is crazy town. He's coming off the unanimous decision winner, Daniel Zell, Hubert, U.S. 318, which made me very sad.

Dober coming off a stoppage victory over Kyle Preplick at Vancouver in October. I have a betting trends piece that I want to share with you in a moment. But first, this is just going to be a strike a coin flip, just bang it out, see who falls, right?

Yeah. Again, I don't want to bury the lead, but I weirdly feel like if this doesn't end in the first round, it's going the distance, a lot like the last fight. Like I could see this being, fight of the night and it's a banger of a fight but neither guy gets put out i don't know you mentioned dober

coming off that wind of kyle prepleck dude he was losing that fight till he kicked him in the dick and then just ambushed him after that knocked him out before that he had lost savvy it sure but before that he had lost four of his last five getting stopped in three of those losses so dober really been in a rough stretch i'm gonna like account the preppelac fight as kind of not looking that good johnson you mentioned he's won four of his last five dude but he really hasn't been active he's only had five fights in the last three and a half years, and at 39 years old, you know, that's only going to get you so far. Both guys, they land roughly the same strikes per minute. Dober does get hit more often, and not that either guy is really known to wrestle, but Michael Johnson does have the better

take down accuracy and take down defense. They'll also have a three-inch reach advantage for whatever the hell that's worth. Both guys really hard to trust, though. They're both glass cannons, let's be real. They're either going to put each other out or get chinned in the process. Dober been finished eight times before, and his last eight wins have come. by knockout. Michael Johnson been finished 12 times before. So I consider just taking the dog here, especially because I just mentioned, they're both glass cannons. You might as well take a shot on the dog, Drew Dober, but instead, I'm probably the, probably the riskiest leg in this parlay here. The over one and a half parlaying it with the over one and a half in Font Rose S and Max Money Line,

that three-leggar at plus one-nine. Dober's hit the over one and a half in three of his last four and Johnson sent it in six of his last eight. So it is risky, but I can see. see it because I was looking at the under two and a half and I didn't realize until I went over it. Dober's hit the under two and a half and eight of his past ten. Though a few of those were third round, you know, like Preppolek, but he's good for the under two and a half mostly. Michael Johnson, only four and six over his past ten fights he at the under two and a half. He's kind of been going long a lot lately, which I did not expect.

my I don't have any action on this fight I think the action I I may take is if the money keeps coming in if Michael Johnson ever gets to plus money I'm going to take him I do favor him to win this fight actually but because of the Rondovers on and his speed I think is going to probably be the deciding factor but I don't want to do that especially not with him as a minus number because the betting trends on this Vegas does doesn't, they just don't know how to be here. Michael Johnson is 7 and 10 as a betting favorite, which is a horrific. Like, that is so bad as a betting favorite to be 7 and 10. And, but it's not like Drew Dober's Charles Oliver, you know, he is three and eight as, as an underdog. Like, he is three and eight and one no contest as an underdog. Like, neither of these dudes are paying out tickets in their respective positions. So if the money flips, if Johnson gets to plus money,

I will take a bet on him at plus money until then this not like these numbers seem about right to me where it could be basically a coin flip, slight edge towards Michael Johnson. But I think it is just going to be fun. I think they're going to stand and bang and we will have a good good quality time as the main card gets moving.

My prediction is that that's fight of the night. So just just putting that out there. Man, some books used to let you bet on Fight of the Nights. I wish we still had that. That would be so much more fun thing to do. So not to throw, I won't throw the particular book under the bus, but I've been seeing some people in other states have different props,

and you can bet like number of knockouts on the card, number of submissions on the... I used to be like a stock thing that was fun. Yeah. I haven't had access to that in ages, but I used to love trying to do that. I do that for like every card. Yeah, that's fun.

Yeah, it's just good quality fun. You know what else? Good quality fun. rematches. And we end this evening with the rematch and we start this main call with the rematch as well as Gregory Robocop Rodriguez looks for his shot at revenge against Bruno Faheda in a middleweight contest. Robocop, minus 200 betting favorite. Bruno Faheda plus 165 underdog. Both men entering on win streaks, Robocop on a two-fight win streak, a unanimous decision win over Roman Koppelov at UFC 322 was his most recent effort. meanwhile Fahedah coming off a unanimous decision win over Marvin Vittori at UFC 323

though slight asterisk he did miss weight against Marvin Vittory so you know is that real I mean the win counts but think about it as that is a rematch of their 2023 fight where Faheda kind of came out of nowhere to upend the all like soon to be surging Robocop with a knockout pretty early on And now we've got Robocop back at it. We talked a little bit about this on Monday, Luke, but how do you see this main fight opening? This is, I was saying every fight on the main card,

I feel like it's a live dog, dude. And this is no stranger. I mean, since their first fight, Robocop won five of his last six. Loan loss coming to Jared Cananier. Uh, Freira has won five of his last seven in that span. Uh, only one of those going the distance. So my man, you know, loves to just finish it early.

But Robocop lands over, five strikes per minute, which is a lot, but he also gets hit with close to five strikes per minute as well. So you got to take him to get him, I guess, but like my man leaves his face open. Obviously, we saw that in the first fight. Fadhaeda, even worse, though, dude, he has a negative striking differential lands closer to four strikes per minute. Take down numbers, pretty similar. I don't expect Bruno Faheda to want to grapple with Robocop. And Robocop has proven that he just does not give a fuck about grappling, despite having the advantage that I'd argue he'd be undefeated in the UFC right now if he just grappled a little more.

Tried to just wrestle there or something. I was initially thinking of taking this fight to knock out the distance in a parlay. 83% of their combined pro fights have ended by finish. It feels like a solid parlay like may take it in a different parlay. But Jed, I saw this over one and a half at plus money.

Plus 105, to be exact. And I know it's going to be sweat. It's going to be so sweaty, dude. Seven and a half minutes, I will be losing my shit. Eight and a half if you want to count the minute in between rounds. I'll also be sweating. But you'll feel live. Robocops hit it in four of his last five,

and Fahedis hit it in three of his last four. That's like a damn good hit rate for a plus money over. I also just think that because Robocop was finished in the first fight, he may come out a little more timid, trying not to get caught again. I could also see Bruno doing the exact same thing he did in the first fight and bum rushing him because he's like, that worked the first time.

I'll just do that again. So, you know, obviously I'm nervous about it, but I feel like the value is there. You've got to take a shot at it. Let's go. Can't blame you. Um, I, I think Robocop is going to win this one walking away. Um, I think, because I think he's just going to tackle him this time.

I think he's going to learn a lesson. He's been like, man, if I do the Robocop thing, I might get, maybe I'll win, but I might also get my light shut out. And I can't, I, I think he's ranked in the UFC right now. Actually, let me pull them up. They're both in the teens. I don't have it in front of me, but I think it's like 14 and 12 or so. Robocop's 13 and Bruno's 15. Yeah.

And so it's just like he's finally in the middleweight rankings. He had a couple of opportunities, sort of fell short, finally got in there. And now I think he's got to recognize I got a fight to my strengths. I can't. If I have to stand and bang, I don't have to be afraid to do that. But the path of least resistance is takedowns. I want to get this win back. I want to write this wrong.

I think he's going to come out and win. I think his line is correct. And so I don't have a bet on it. But maybe I'll, throw one in by fight night just to have some feeling here. I'm not sure about the over-under because I don't, I mean, I feel like he's probably either Bruno knocks him out early or Robocop taps him early, but as you're talking about it, I'm like, yeah, man, maybe this does just go a little longer.

Maybe this, maybe Robocop is a little more timid, a little more take down focus, isn't trying to press the issue on the ground. And I mean, both of them have kind of been hitting the over one and a half a fair amount. lately. So I don't know. I'm unclear how to feel about this other than I do broadly think that Robo Capp's going to win. That being said, Bruno Faheda, three and one is an underdog. Mancash is some dog tickets out there. So if other people are like you and thinking that, you know, a lot of live dogs, this might be a good one for me. I have no action on this fight. I have to present a parlay to you because I think you'll actually like it and it involves this

fight. Okay. The Killcliff Parlay, Jed, is Robocop, Michael Johnson, and RDR. I know you like all three of those guys. Uh-huh. Yeah, I'm not going to do that. But that's a, I mean, that's a, that's, I already have a gimmick parlay. Okay. I'm not looking to add more, um, because I already have some concerns about my gimmick parlay. Uh, and we'll talk about the start of that right now as we move to the prelims. Um, and anyone looking at this card and who knows what I'm about probably already, understands the gimmick parlay or at least to really take this though at least the

idea behind the parley not in the way that you're thinking I took this but Cody Garbrand former bantamemate champion is taking on Zhao Long in the prelim main event on Paramount Plus and CBS on Saturday in a

bandam weight contest and the former bandam weight champion is an underdog that is right plus 120 against Zhao Long the World UFC fighter, Cody Garbrandt, three and seven over his past 10 fights, two-fight losing streak, unanimous decision lost to Haoni Barcellos in Atlanta, Shaolong, one and two in the UFC, unanimous decision lost to Su-Young-U in August and is a betting favorite against a former

Bannonweight champion who's not that old. My, how Cody Garbrandt has followed. And so here's what I have to say to you because I have yet to do it, but I do intend to take my gimmick parlay this week is the anti-Cody Parlay. We got three codies in the UFC this week. Cody Garbrant, Cody Durden, and Cody Brundage, all fighting. We're missing a couple. Cody Steele is Cody with a K. He could be fighting. Cody Stamon.

Cody Gibson. Like there are a couple of codies that could. still be here, but we've got three Cody's. That's a lot of Cody's. And I'm, I think they're all going to lose. But maybe Cody Garbrandt won't is the thing. Because Zhao Long is not very good. And Luke, I, I posit to you, if Xia Long can't take Cody Garbrandt down, Cody Garbrant is going to win a fight. And if he can take him down, Cody Garbrant should retire. Is that the lay of the land here. I don't know if that's the lay of the land, but I'm, I'm kind of with you, dude. First thing I noticed when I looked at this fight is I see Cody Garbrand as a dog and like, I'm immediately

like, I don't even want to do any research. I think I just want to take this. As I dive into the numbers, though, Judd, they do not look great, but that doesn't mean we can't take it. Cody, negative striking differential. That's just blowing my mind for someone who, you know, we all remember the Dom Cruce. How does that guy have a lot? How does that guy have a lot? a negative striking differential. Like that's crazy to me. Pretty decent one at that too. Because the Dom Cruz fight happened like a decade ago.

I know, but it's just like still, even the fights leading up to that, there's no way he had a negative striking differential tool he went on this losing street. You know what I mean? Like either way, Long Lance, I just looked it up.

The Dom Cruz fight was almost a decade ago. It was 2016. It was December of 2016. 207, right? That is ludicrous that Cody Garbrandt has, just not like that was it and we all thought that man this guy might rain for a long time put together a real run and then he was never good again yeah dude i mean it's a bummer but

zhao wild he lands twice as many strikes per minute not only that but long's gonna be long in this fight jet he's gonna have a five inch reach is big their wrestling numbers though pretty similar that doesn't mean they can't be utilized though jow long taken down five of his six Zufa fights. Zufa fights, I'm including Contender Series, Road to UFC, and UFC, including being taken down at least twice in three of those fights. Cody, obviously, more well-known as a striker nowadays, but his base was wrestling growing up, and he has mixed it in sparingly. He has five combined takedons in his last six fights. Not to mention, Cody still has the power. Long's been ca-oed three times before. I think there's a path for Cody, no love here. I'm taking a shot on him, Jed. Got him at plus 136.

I genuinely do And if I weren't going to do an anti-Cody gimmick I probably would take a shot on him at this Because And honestly that's probably stupid Like very realistically That in my head I'm like oh it's Cody Garberin

He's better than this guy who's not good But actually everything the evidence has told us For years is that Cody Garbrane is also a guy who's not good So this is a competitive matchup stylistically, you think Cody has chances, but dude, he might just be, he might just be cooked. When you start getting face tattoos,

it probably doesn't signify that everything's going the way you want it to go. Worked for Shona Malley. He didn't. He gave him a champion after that, you know? How's he been doing since? But I think he was like, contender, got the face tats,

became champ, if I'm not mistaken. I don't know. Yeah. I don't have to check you on the timeline there. But yeah, it's just, I don't know. I'm riding with my anti-Cody Parlay, and so Zhao Long will be the last leg. I suspect the two legs before. This is the leg I'd be the most concerned about in the anti-Cody Parlay, frankly.

Though, another leg. I also think it's a competitive bout, and partly hurts me to make the anti-Cody Parlay as well because of this. But let's talk about the middle leg of the anti-Cody Parley, the third leg, some might say. of the anti-Cody Parlay. Dante Johnson, taking on Cody Brundage in a middleweight contest. Johnson, the biggest betting favorite on the card, minus 650. Cody Brundage plus 450. I think Brundage also is stepping in on semi-short notice, and that right?

Yeah, five weeks. Yes, because that's right, because Dusko Todorovich was supposed to be fighting Dante Johnson. I meant to say he fought five weeks ago. Not he said. Yes, he fought five weeks ago and is now stepping in to replace. When I say he fought five weeks ago, I mean, he got T-KO'd by Cam Rouseston at UFC 325 back in February.

In fact, the last time we spoke was us talking about Cody Brundage getting beat up by Cam Rostin. On the other side of it, Dante Johnson making his UFC debut coming off Contender series, where I graded him as a three-star prospect with a pretty major caveat in there. As I wrote in the column, he said, I'm grading him as a three-star because he competed at heavyweight on Contender series, and was very obviously undersized and seemed clear that he was not going to compete at heavyweight, but wasn't certain where, what division where he'd shake out at, seems middleweight is where he has decided to make his hay. Maybe he is a, you know, maybe I had a grade a bit higher or even a bit lower.

I don't know looking at him as a middleweight contender, but none of that matters to me here, Luke, because Cody Brundage is going to lose. Cam Rauston is an explosive athlete, a D2 wrestling pedigree, I believe. Also, good, like, fast, packs pop. I think he is, this is the sort of fight that Cody Brundage is set to get beat up in. You said Cam Rauston just there.

I think you meant Don't know. You were mixing him up. Yeah. Well, I mean, it was true for Cam. Well, I'm like, tell me more about Cam. Let's go, Australia. Dude, I'm so with you on this fight. I mean, Cody Brundage comes in.

Having won one in his last six fights, we just mentioned he was knocked out five weeks ago. This is pretty interesting to me because, like, I'm pretty sure you need a written permission from a doctor to fight this quickly after being knocked out. I thought the minimum suspension was 45 days. This is 35 days. So maybe he got permission. I'm just saying he's probably not all there up top very clearly. Johnson's numbers look fantastic. He lands twice as often as he gets hit.

He averages over six takedowns per 50 minutes. Brundage, negative striking differential, only a. 68% takedown defense. Like you, Jed, and like any Cody Brundage fight, I don't even need to know who he's fighting. Give me the opponent by finish. It's chalky, though. Minus 325, obviously going to parlay it. I may also dabble on the over one and a half.

Call me crazy here. It's plus 150. Johnson never hit it in seven pro fights, so obviously it's a stupid bet. But Brunditch has hit it in three straight. You know, Johnson's inexperience. Maybe Brundage can drag this out. I'm not saying he's going to win, but maybe he could drag it out for seven and a half minutes. It's possible.

I encourage you not to play set bet. That's just not really how Dante Johnson gets down. So, yeah, I think he's just going to run over him. And I'm excited to see Dante Johnson just because I'd like to have, when I was evaluated him on Contender Series, I was like, dude, he's tiny, he's clearly not a heavyweight. I don't know what to do with this. Because he can still win a lot of heavyweight because heavywood is just so garbage. But now at least getting to see him put in work against a guy who's been around for a while.

Cody Brundage is 1-1-1-1 over his past 5, by the way, which is deeply funny because there's another fighter on this card who is 1-1-1-1 over their past 4th the UFC, which is just like you don't really see those sorts of stat lines all the time. But Dante Johnson, going to run over him. He's the reason we can't do a Cody parley. We can't believe in the Cody's here because Cody Brundage ain't winning. So it has to be an anti-Cody parley,

which is a shame because kind of think Cody Garbran. is a live dog and the other Cody we'll speak about in just a moment here I have a connection to so but we'll talk about that in a moment because first we are moving to the featherweight division in a fight that sure it's happening. Ricky Terseos

is taking on Alberto Montez Montez minus 190 betting favorite. Terseos plus 155 Terseos Sunday two fight losing streak Wala Montes makes his UFC debut signed off contender series in 2024 and has not fought

he was booked last year but pulled out. I don't remember why I'm going to guess injury based on how long a timeline this is. You know, out 17 months finally making his UC debut against Ricky Terseos, who still has a job, good on him. Luke, I will keep this pretty brief because I don't have huge thoughts. I didn't grade Montez as like a super prospect of grade him as kind of a middle of the road. Dude coming off seems fine. you know, good grappler.

Terseos is Ricky Terseos, right? Like he's game, but not good, and probably gets finished more often than not. I think this is going to be a grappling contest, and I favor Montez, but off a 17-month layoff and still a bit of a wild card there. I'm not touching this one, no bet for me. Wow, okay.

I've got to be honest with you, I did not notice when I was doing my research that he had been off for 17 months, but I actually love that you said that because both guys land roughly the same strikes per minute. Ricky does get hit less often and he's going to have a two inch free advantage here. Montez was taken down twice in his contender series bout. Ricky landed two takedowns in both of his UFC wins, so I could see him trying to wrestle here. Might not be the smartest game plan because majority of Montez's wins have come by sub and Ricky has been sub before,

but I'm going to take a terseo spread bet and a parlay, dude. The plus three and a half is minus 125 right now, so I may, I may, may take the five and a half or seven and a half since I'm parlaying it. I don't have a lot of confidence in Ricky in general, but I feel like this is actually a winnable matchup for him. Maybe he could steal a round, if not just straight up win. Either way, spread bet for Ricky. Let's go.

And we will go right on down the road to the final Cody in the anti-Cody Parlay. Cody Durdin taking on Niamjogel Tumindimboral in a flyweight contest. Cody Durdon, a very slight underdog plus one. Timendimboral minus 135. Durd and only three-fight losing streak. Got anacondonded in November. Tooman d'embro, one-in-one in the UFC. And I got to tell you, again, I'm sad to have the anti-Cody Parlay

because Cody Durden, a guy who I never trained with but was around. He is an Atlanta-based fighter. Used to train at ATT Atlanta. switch to AT2TGuinette, which is basically a subsidiary. They are connected. There's plenty of cross-training there. Just a little closer to home for him. And, you know, I like to rep my Atlanta boys in general,

but I'm not going to for obvious reasons. Tum and Dimbral, not great. I think the question here, this feels like this is going to be a grappling contest. Can Durden get his wrestling going against, We talked about this little on MK. While I don't think Toominimbril is like the best fighter, I love that he does the fake nickname.

It's my favorite gimmick. His nickname is Art of Knockout, and he has two knockouts in his career and six submission wins. So he's just lying to you. And I don't think Cody Darden is going to fall for that lie, but I guess we'll find out on Saturday. I'm just so excited for him to get a K.O. win in the UFC

and be like, I've been telling you guys. I'm the art of knockout. Like I told you, we would have seen it coming the whole time. Literally what happens with Brad one punch pick. I will say, dude,

you kind of just, I guess, confirm this for me, but was his last fight, a UFC fight? It was just on a road to UFC card, kind of like Bruno Brazil was also on that card. It was technically a UFC back.

Because I was like, did he get demoted back to Road to UFC? And now he's back? Like, I don't know. But, uh, I'm not, that's a fair, I honestly don't.

No. I have a feeling it was like the Bruno Brazil thing. I don't know why they did. I think that's correct because it was, it was on whatever that event was, right? It was Road 2.OFC and I think it was like the Co-Main. But it was like the Shanghai thing. So yeah.

So it's like, it's all weird, you know. Yeah. The whole road UFC thing is dumb as hell. Yeah, I like the whole tournament and get new guys in, but I, yeah,

I don't like, the way they're treating it as a separate thing is very, I don't, it's silly. I agree. But this fight, dude, both guys,

negative striking differential. Durdon's a bit more drastic, though, despite him landing more strikes per minute. You mentioned both guys can wrestle here, each of them averaging over three takedowns per 15 minutes. Durdin, though, probably the better defensive wrestler, having gone five straight fights without being taken down, and only three of his 14 UFC opponents have taken him down. Tumendembro, on the other hand, has been taken down 10 times in those four Zoofabouts. I weirdly feel like Cody Durdon is a live dog here, Jed, but a lot like Cody Brundage, I don't ever want to put my money on Cody Durdin.

I'm going to take fight does not go the distance at minus 190 in a parlay, 19 of Durdens, 27 pro fights of knock on the distance, and eight of Tumendembro's 10 pro fights of knock on the distance. That is 73% combined. You're also not factoring in a couple of really important other things to consider when you're talking about this. One, not related to this fight, but we got a couple of tiger nicknames on this card, too,

which shout out, we love that. But I have a longstanding policy that if a man has a difficult to pronounce name and a fun hat, go bet against him. That's a sucker bet to bet against him. And Tum and Dimbril is pretty tricky. And if you haven't, if you're listening to this right now, I encourage you to hit pause or leave it up. If you're on your phone, just open up the Instagram app and try to find Njong Jarl, Tum and Dimbabro's Instagram. Me saying it, you're probably going to have to type.

like eight different times to get to it. He doesn't have like a lot of followers. But God damn, this man should have a lot of followers. Can you, Luke, I don't know if you've done it. Can you just go open his Instagram right now? And just take a gander at some of the things you can see here. Okay. Because it's the best.

Two men, Dem, bear roll as I try and sound out his name here. It is. I found it, found it. The stone cold best. this man is Mongolia as hell and it fools Dude the one picture of him with the bird on his head Yes he's got a he's falconing

While riding a horse in like traditional Mongolian war gear Bangs Yeah this is this guy bangs Dude the crew photo of all of them Oh it's a video Looks like they're in like the airport Yeah dude look at everything happening on this man's Instagram Is the coolest shit I've ever seen

I got to give him a follow. I'm going to follow him right now. Like, it is every, as I, like, because I randomly will go check, like, Instagrams to see, like, oh, maybe they, maybe I can see if they, like, look good or whatever. It's just like, oh, every single thing on his Instagram is the coolest shit of all time. He's just standing with a falcon on his head with a sword. Like, this guy rules. His chest tattoo is weird. Like, but it's, yeah.

It's weird. I'm looking better than ever after that. I mean, look, Naam Dragole, Tum and Dimbral, we love you. And I think you're going to do big things on Saturday. And then it just comes down to whether

Zhao Long can also be as cool. None of us can be as cool as Tumadimboral, frankly. But Mongolia stand up. You got a real one. Let's go to, I mean, we should probably move a little faster. We talk about the early prelims.

And I will, because I don't have a lot to. to share here as we move to Sumerji, the Tibetan Eagle, taking on Jesus Aguilar in a flyway contest. Sumedary minus 260, Aguilar plus 210. Sumedary on a two-fight winning streak, a unanimous decision win over Kevin Borjas in August. Aguilar, meanwhile, four and one over is past five and coming off a unanimous decision win over Luis Gruli in September. Luke, I think these odds are right. Sumadairjee's a much bigger person. Azu Zagrelars is a very small human

being as flyweight. And I broadly think that he's just going to get the run of play here, but I have no interest in betting this one. Maybe could look at the over, but I bet the I didn't even look at it because I assume the price is high. Dude, I disagree

with you in the stack that I don't think these odds are right at all. Money line-wise. I feel like all, first of all, both guys good striking differential landing almost as twice as often as they get hit. Sumederji does land more, but he also gets hit more. Sumadherj 10 inch reach advantage here, which is fucking wild.

But 10 inch reach advantage or not, dude, Sumadersi has a clear weakness, and it's in the grappling department. He was taken down in all four of his UFC losses, and he's been taken down eight times in his last three fights. Aguilar averages almost two takedowns for 15 minutes, and he's taken down three

of his last four opponents. Not only that, but six of Sumederg's seven pro losses have come by sub, and majority of Aguilar's pro wins come by. I will Venmo you $5 right now if without looking you can tell me

two of Hazer's last five opponents that he's successfully taken down. It was that guy off contender series and that other guy off movie. No, yeah, I have no idea. I genuinely have no idea. It is a collection of not good names. Oh wait, Lewis Gouroul. Didn't you just

tell me he just being hit? I did tell you that one. There you go. I got that. Established fighter Louis Scrule who has winless in the UFC in fact. Yeah, but he just have a second fight in the UFC like a week ago. He's had three of them and he's lost all three of them.

All right, all right. I don't care, Jed. Actually, I'm just now realizing this as I look at this. So Hazer's Aguilar beat the winless Luis Garoulet. He beat the winless Stuart Nicoli. He beat the winless

Mateus Mandanka. Stuart Nicol, my Australian brother. Don't disband. And he beat the winless. Shannon Ross. This dude has not beat a man in the UFC who's won a fight in the UFC. All right. Well, two of them were Australian,

so naturally those are worth like 10 times the win value. So, I mean, he's beating two Aussies already. You know, you got Sumadairjee here coming in from China. I don't know. Chad, all I'm saying is, everything I pointed to already, I'm fucking sprinkling not only on an Aguilar. I'm going to throw Aguilar

spread bet in a parlay, because I think he could at least steal a round if not win the fight. I'm also fucking sprinkling on an Aguilar by sub prop bet. It's plus 400 right now. That just feels like you got to do it, dude. Six of his seven losses by sub and seven of Aguilar's pro wins by sub. You don't feel that same thing I'm feeling here with that.

I got to tell you, I am talking like hearing that makes me want to bet Sumadherjee now. Wow. All right. All he's done is beat dudes who haven't want to fight in the after gun. He lost to Matt Schnell. He lost to match now. He didn't even beat. He was ranked at one point.

Mitch Nell has lost four of his last five, and I think the only win was Sumadurgy. I mean, the guy's been toast for fucking five years. He beat Kevin Boros, who's not good, but has at least won a fight in the U.S. Did he have fucking flatlined last week? Yeah, by a sick-ass prospect in Iminala Rodriguez. A sick-ass prospect who also got dropped in the beginning of that fight,

almost lost, and then came back on. Kevin Boross is very good. That's it. That's what I'm telling you, Sumed Deerje. He beat Mitch Reproosa, who's a, Mitch Reposo, who's about to fight at, at Winnipeg, you know, like Mitch Raposo's beaten dudes in the

he's beaten dudes of one fights in the UFC. That is, he's never want to fight in the UFC. I'm pretty sure he's never won. Mitch Raposo has won't want to fight in the UFC. No, didn't you tell me he's lost the competitor? No, he beat Azad Maxim, his last time out. And has he ever want to fight in the UFC?

You know, you got to go down the trail. You guys have Maxis. All right. Probably because he has a fun name and a fun hat, right? Surely he's want to fight in the UFC. When Aguilar wins by. by sub, Chad. I'm texting you to rub it in. I hope you. Look, do your dance if it happens. I'm just saying, uh, I don't have any confidence in Hazers. I'm going to get more excited for that than

any other bet this week because of this right now. That's why we gamble, folks. This is how we build interest in fights to no one else would care about. I'll tell you a fight I do care about. It's probably the only prelim fight I'm actually like interested in. And it is a light, heavyweight contest between Raphael Tobias and DR Mergazai. Tobias, a minus 220 betting favorite Nergazai plus 170. This is Tobias' UFC debut coming off contender series. D.R. is 0 and 2 in the UFC has been tapped out and Luke, I'll let you drop the fun factoid that you told me

about earlier this week because it's funny. 100% takedown defense and been subbed in both of his UFC batch. It's really impressive. It's really impressive. Tobias was a four-star prospect for me off this last series of Contender Series. I comped him to Kyle Baha'aio, Super Young. I think he's pretty talented. I'm excited to see what he can do,

and this feels like a good setup fight for him. DR basically is just like a big, big dude. It's like a big strong guy. But not a great grappler, as that would suggest. And I do think Tobias can take advantage of that and probably get his submission finish, but certainly get a finish. And so I am on Rafael Tobias to win his UFC debut.

Let's go. It's a little ironic, Jed, because Diorneurzai has a funny hat and hard to say name. And, you know, you're not on him. I got to say. But I'm with you, though. I'm with bipolar Tobias here as he goes by. He does have a negative striking differential. He's not that accurate with his strikes either, only landing 30%.

But Nergaze, slightly better striking numbers, even if he doesn't land as often. We mentioned he's got the 100% take-down defense, but he's still lost by submission. I don't even know how you do that. Tobias, 100% take-down accuracy, even though he only shot once in his contender series bouts. You know, not too much we could take away from that. Majority of his pro wins have come by submission, though, including that contender series bout. I'm with you, Jed. I'm taking a shot.

Tobias by finish. It's minus 120. I'll probably throw it in a parlay. I'm not sold on Nurgozay whatsoever. And whether he subs him or KOs him, I think Tobias will get it done inside the distance. And in case you're wondering, Nergaze's Instagram is useless. There's nothing interesting there, so he's not cool. He doesn't have animals on his head.

I mean, he's got like nothing going on there as deeply uninteresting. So don't follow him. That's not necessary. Our next fight are penultimate. We will discuss 145 pounds as Jong-young Lee takes on Gaston Belanos. Lee minus 300, Balanos plus 225. Jong-Yung-Yang-Lie on a two-fight losing streak. Balaños.

Two and two in the UFC got submitted by Kwong Lee, his last timeout. And yeah, the truth of this is I don't have any thoughts or care, frankly, about this fight. It is one that is happening between guys that I don't think are going to be long-term meaningful to our lives, personally. And so I got nothing here. What do you have? I mean, I have something, but I'm with you 100%. By far the fight I care about the least on the card. Lee, negative striking differential, does land more strikes per minute.

He'll also have a four-inch reach advantage here. Bologios was taken down in all four of his UFC bouts, including being taken down three plus times in three of those four. So clear wrestling weakness here for Bolognaos. Lee doesn't wrestle much, but he did get two takedowns in his last win, so he's shown he can wrestle. I think the odds are a little wide, but at the same time, I don't really see Bologios winning this fight.

I'm going to take Jung-Yung-Yung-Lie moneyline in a part. But as Jed said, man, this fight is whatever. Yeah. If I could cut one fight from this card entirely, it would be this one without even a second glance at it. But this one could be a contender as the opening five of the evening, Luke Fernandez takes on Hadoffal Balato in a late heavyweight contest. Fernandez undefeated, 6-0 in his professional of a career.

He joins the promotion off of contender series where, he beat somebody I don't remember I didn't grade him that high it was a two star didn't show me too much and he's like 30 so he's already old uh... Balato meanwhile the other the aforementioned guy on a one one and one

run in the UFC he has hit for the cycle which is impressive you gotta respect it UD lost to Navajo Sterling in September I suspect that this will he will join Cody Brundage and be one two

one in one, but Bellato may well get his walking papers after this one. I think Fernandez, you know, he is prime, I think mostly he has Cato stops on his resume, right? But he

is largely likes to use his grappling as well, so he gets a lot of ground and pound finishes. I think he's probably going to tackle Bellato and pound him out. I hope you're right. I mean, his contender series bout only lasted 15 seconds. Didn't really get to see much from him. His stats are like ridiculous because of that. It says he lands 32 strikes per minute

or some shit. Balado, negative striking differential. Bin knocked down in three of his six Zoof about. So we're not only talking about the Oscar winning performance. My man's getting knocked down by everyone. He does average two takedowns per 15 minutes and he has taken down all four of his UFC opponents. So like he could wrestle. I don't really know anything about Luke's wrestling background. But I don't need to. You always trust a guy. name Luke, especially when he's undefeated, I'm taking a money line minus 220 in a parlay. Let's go. Look, always back your voice. I respect. If there was ever a Jed that fought and wasn't like the worst person alive, man, I would, I would stand him so hard to rep for us. I don't think that'll

happen. So that's a shame. But you know, it's not a shame. We did it. Luke, look at us. Look at us. We did it. UC326. It's not a good card, but it's a card we did talk. about and there are some fun things happening. And, you know, there won't really be that many fun things happening next week, but we'll talk about that later. Luke, what do you got going on this week? Tell the people where they can find you, where they can find me

cough, prop quiz, cough. Let's go. Anything else you want to plug? I was just going to plug that. I got prop quiz air on Friday, 130 p.m. Eastern time. Jedmishu taken on Chuck Mindenhall. Winner moves on to the final $400. And tautsoe. Shout out to Tatsaw.

And what else I got? I'm doing a full card watch along on Saturday. So you could join me from Luke Fernandez versus Hidalfo Bellato all the way up until Jed and Mike go live on MMA fighting. Then you could dual screen it for the both of us. But yeah, I'll be live for the full card. Bet breakdown's already out. But, you know, we kind of just did it here.

So I doubt anyone cares about that. And yeah, same thing next week. Let's go. Yeah, next week we'll be back to the world's mightiest meta, meta is to Apex for Vegas 1 something. I don't even know at this point.

14, sure. Josh, I'm at Kevin Villegos, my guy, my guy, Kevin Villas. Everybody quickly came around on him. I saw him first, boys.

I just won't get that out. I saw him first. So that'll be, I mean, a changing of the guard moment. That card's not very good. The rest of this week, MMA fighting,

you know what's up? By the time this drops, BTL may or may not have happened already. I have a preview show on Friday. Me and Mike Hack have a watch party on Saturday and all the normal coverage you see. Until then, thanks for listening, y'all. See you next week.

Love y'all. To the Vox Media Podcast Network.