MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Movsar Evloev And Lerone Murphy Fight For A Title Shot At UFC London, Plus PFL Madrid

Episode Date: March 18, 2026

It’s an MMA double header this weekend. This Saturday, the UFC returns to the O2 Arena for another edition of UFC London, this time headlined by a possible featherweight title eliminator between undefeated contenders Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy. It’s possibly the best fight the UFC has put together so far in 2026, and the stakes are high, with the winner being in prime position to challenge Alexander Volkanovski for the 145 title. But before that, we’ve got 13 other UFC fights, and PFL Madrid on Friday, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, Jed Meshew flies solo to dive into this big MMA weekend. Topics discussed include a big breakdown for Evloev vs. Murphy, why Michael “Venom” Page is back at welterweight against Sam Patterson, a couple of live dogs on the undercard, the best action on Friday at PFL Madrid, the latest step in The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 151 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard. I am your host, Jed Mishu, and I am flying solo this week as we talk about UFC London. And I will give you a bit of a preface here. Not an enormous amount of action this week. last week I basically had two bets and ended up not even doing an episode because Vegas 114 was I just did not have a lot to say but I didn't want to go back to back weeks without one I had a guest lined up things fell through at the last moment so we're a flying solo I only

have four bets and no climb this week which is disappointing because we fired up the climb last week for Vegas 114 if you paid attention on mhmapiding.com you watch the preview show or any of our stuff. We got back on track. We climbed with our boy Kevin Villiers and he obviously got it done. So we are one step down on version

13 of the climb. Also, the only other bet we had last week was a four into parlay between some favorites. I didn't end up cashing plus money so we are basically back to even for the year. Disappointing, but sort of just where we're at as we look to

move forward. We were, frankly doing better than even but UFC 326 hurt us a good deal but we got back to even money and we are happy about that what we're not happy about is this weekend's card

because UFC returns to the O2 arena in London and while the main event is about as good to fight full stop as has been put on this year the rest of this card is sorely sorely lack in the right types of action.

I mean, if you go to Tapology, you go to the wiki, you just see they've done the London thing. You've got a lot of UK fighters, some other European fighters just mixed in, some good matchups, and we will spend a little bit of time on those, but also 14 fights. So just a lot of action.

But let's dive into the action because the main event is, like I said, I think it might be the best fight of the year on paper at least. Two undefeated guys in Mavsar Evluev taking on Lorone Murphy. I mean, you don't often get a 19-0 dude versus a 17-0-1 dude. And with title implications on the line here, straight up, I mean, by the way, champion Alexander Volkinovokinovokovsky has been calling to fight either man,

both men, depending on the situation, and has outright been calling to face the winner of this fight. Whether that's going to happen, I am not entirely sure. I think based on how we've seen the matchmaking play out this year, maybe if Laurel Murphy does something special, he might get the call. But if Mobs or Evov wins a grappling heavy fight, wouldn't shock me to all of the John Silva. Leapfrog to him, because that's just the UFC in this day and age. But let's look at the numbers a little bit.

Evel will have your betting favorite at the time of recording minus 225 to come back on Murphy, around plus 180. So competitively lined, but clear favorite towards Evelev, who is 9-0 in the UFC, coming off a unanimous decision win over Al Jermaine Sterling. But that was back in 2024, a UFC 310. So it has been a very long layoff from Obsar Evelv. I think we're at, what, 15 months? Is that right?

Is that how my math works? 14 months? No, it can be 14 months. 15 months, yeah. Murphy, meanwhile, 9-1-1 in the UFC, I think is the driver. draw was his first fight and he's coming off that sensational knockout win over am pico at ucc 319 last year that people thought was going to get him a title fight instead we know what happened Diego lopez got called again and murphy just sort of got given short shrift there still

don't understand what happened just that it is what happened if you look at the betting trends on this one obviously evelov nine and oh he's been a betting favorite in every one of those as well so He has yet to cost you money in any respect. He has gained you a ton as a favorite usually, but he's yet to cost you. Murphy also, of course, has not lost a fight. Only was an underdog twice, though, but 2 and 0 as an underdog. So he has an opportunity to move 2.0 and 1. He was an underdog in the draw.

So as an opportunity to move to 3 and 0, if you want to take a look at those trends. If we get down into the nuts and bolts of this fight, like I said, I love this fight. I think it's it's freaking awesome because Moffs are the biggest concern if you are a Movsore Evluv fan or backer I'm sure there are Eve fans I've become one purely because it's so ridiculous how he is being treated right now frankly but like if you are an Evelev fan the concern here is the layoff because stylistically this should be a very very winnable fight for Evelweb you know pico was a favorite over Murphy both for reasons of hype. Aaron Pico has always been super hyped, but because Pico is an accomplished wrestler,

and that is the weakness of Murphy's game, right? If you look at the pure numbers, and I rarely use numbers like in general, just because the UFC stats are so, can be so misleading, but a 51% takedown defense for Lerone Murphy. And more than that, if you just look at his fights, granted, he hasn't lost any of these fights, but Makwin-a-Mir-Kani got him down five times, Gabriel Santos got him down five times. Dan Ige even took him down. Josh Emmett got him down four times. In the draw with Zubaira Tukagov,

six takedowns given up. And these are mostly three-round fights that he is giving these up. Pico got him down twice, you know. Granted, the thing about Murphy is he is actually tends to be pretty good at getting up. He's not amazing at it, but he doesn't let you accrue a massive amount of control time. But also, he's never really failed. based a grappler as good at controlling the positional situations on the ground as Evelov.

Evov, I mean, if you look at his stats, it's obviously super gaudy as far as the wrestling goes. He's very, very good at this. And so stylistically, this is a clear favorite for Mavsar. Now, he's a little bit smaller, also a little bit younger, I believe. Actually, let me check that out right now because I think Mavsar, yeah, Mavsar, oh, sorry. Mavsar is 32. and Lorone Murphy, shockingly 34, frankly. I did not realize Lauren Murphy was that old.

I mean, it just, the question is this long ago. Fifteen months off, his career sort of in turmoil, despite having never lost. And is there a concern that he comes into this fight looking to make a statement prove a point? Because either overtly or subtly, it has been conveyed to him, you're never going to fight for the belt because we don't like you. And does that make him do a Curtis blades?

I'm going to stand and bang thing. If so, I think it's going to be a bad night for him. Not that he's incompetent on the fee because he certainly is not. But his path to victory against Leon Murphy is most likely to take this into deep waters and get him going. And I do, I was looking at some options here as far as a climb bet, specifically looking at the overs in this fight because, again, I mean, you are talking about two dudes whose average fight time is close to 15 minutes. So there is just a ton of opportunity for over's to happen.

But I'm not entirely sure that I want to do that as far as this goes, you know? You can convince me. And if you have your own climb going at home, then I would say that's something to consider, right? And so if you go ahead and pull up the over in this, let me actually pull up those odds. now because I don't have them in front of me. If you look at the total rounds, I mean, we're looking at the over one and a half is like a billion, whatever.

The over two and a half is still too high for a climb. The over three and a half is where you get into climb territory at minus five, 25, 500, depending on your book. And again, like, it's probably even right because it's unlikely that we even get a finish.

This thing is probably going to the final bell, but I really don't want to put a climb. leg on an over three and a half. That is, it's a long time to have to sweat that out. And so, frankly, just straight up looking at this matchup, I really like Mob Soravlov's chances in it. I think he's not going to be too silly about things. I'm just taking him straight up.

I thought about parlaying him at the price, you know, minus 2.30-ish around there. Wouldn't be unreasonable to parlay him, but I also think you can just take him straight. and I didn't like any of the prop bet options, you know, by decision. You're just not getting enough value there. So minus 230 was actually the price I got him at. So I've got Mobsor, I love in the main event to get her done. And it should be a really good fight. I don't know if it'll be fun,

especially not to how many people consider fights to be fun. But I'm very much looking forward to it as a high-level mixed martial arts contest. Moving on to our co-main event of the evening, A curious one, a very, very curious one because Luke Riley is getting the rub, baby. Luke Riley taking on Michael as well as we stay in the featherweight division. I'm not entirely sure what to say about this. I mean, I know that Luke Riley's coming out of, he's a former Cage Warriors dude. And he's with Patty Pimbleau and Next Gen Liverpool.

This still seems like a huge rub, even for an undefeated young guy. but you know he made a splash in his debut he knocked out bogden grad back in november i don't remember what event that was at as well meanwhile is one-in-one in the occ he's coming off at t-koh whenever lucas al-maid up back in october riley is your betting favorite minus 265 the comeback on aswell plus 235 and we want to mhmath this aswell lost to bogden grad on contender series ended up getting signed anyway um i believe is a short-notice replacement person and Riley obviously knocked out Bogdengrad. So 1 plus 1 equals to Luke Riley should get this done if you're looking at that.

I also think stylistically this feels like a not a total set-up fight because Michael Aswell has enough to offer. But they are building Luke Riley to something. It's why he's getting such a premium position on this card in London. I think purely his aggression should be enough here. He is just, you know, he's got that. confidence of having never lost a fight. He brings that that sort of energy with him. And I suspect that that will be enough to get him past Michael as well.

This one might be fun. We might have a good time as far as this goes. So I guess it's still very weird that this is the combing event because like, I mean, there's just such an obvious, obvious combing event that you could put on here. but that is simply not the direction the UFC has gone, but let's talk about that fight because to me this is very clearly what should be the co-main event. It is a move back to Walterweight for reasons that I still don't understand.

As Michael Venom Page takes on Sam Patterson at 170 pounds, Paige, your betting favorite minus 170 Patterson plus 145 on the comeback. MVP, obviously a longtime Bellator fighter, never actually won a belt or belt, but just super popular star for them. He threw the poker ball at Cyborg Santos after breaking his face, you know, like it's these sorts of things.

3 and 1 since coming to the UFC, despite entering the UFC, probably almost certainly past his prime, but it's kind of hard to tell what MVP's prime was. His career has been so awkward based on his level of competition or whatever, but I mean he's getting older, but he's 3 and 1 in the UFC.

One in one at Welterway. His last two fights came at middleweight. And it was sort of like a weird excursion that he has decided not to pursue, which I don't understand, because he's coming off a unanimous decision win over Jared Cannoneer. I think that was in August. Let me confirm, yes. Back, there's a 319 back in August. Jared Canonere is the number 10 ranked middleweight right now. Like, I am unclear.

I'm Michael Vennam Page's number 13 in the UFC's Walterer rankings, but I'm unclear. why he's decided to come back here, especially for a fight like this. Sam Patterson is on a four-fight winning streak. He's unranked. Doesn't even have a huge name, but he has looked very good and been on a good run. So pretty obviously the setup here is not to get Michael Venom page over. It's to give Sam Patterson an opportunity to get over. And if you're MVP, why are you, I know he says he wants to fight a Walterweight, and I don't get it.

He's never fighting for a belt at Walterweight at this point. there's too much chaos going on in this weight class and you already lost one of the fights man but like you could maybe make a run up at middleweight at least give that a real full-throated effort before bailing on it alas i'm not in charge of his career this is where we're at um patterson you know like i said he's on a really good run something to note he is two and oh as an underdog so he's cashing tickets in this position because he is the underdog plus 140 MVP minus 170 but in his His entire career, Michael Vindepage, has never lost as a favorite. Vegas has him pegged pretty well.

If they are making him the betting favorite, he cashes those tickets. All of his loss have come as an underdog, and they do not think Sam Patterson is going to do it. And quite frankly, neither do I. I think Sam Patterson is on a great run and a pretty decent fighter, frankly, but he is not much of a wrestler. that's just not the A's and Bs of his game. And that is one of the more efficient. If you're going to beat MVP, you either need to catch him,

like with one big spring of offense that's really well timed. Or you need to take him out of his fight, which largely involves wrestling. And Sam Parr's not much of a wrestler. And just not like, you know, he can grapple, but it's not a wrestler. And because he is not like a huge one-deckon, hit or quitter.

Like, it gives me real, I just don't see how he gets this done on the feet. The style of MVP is simply so awkward for most fighters to deal with. And Sam Patterson is not, I mean, no disrespect, but it's not like he is the most durable fighter in the world, you know, like both of his losses, he's gotten knocked out. And if you know, Al-Ashmoos can catch you, I'm going to go ahead and guess that if MVP catches you, he can find a way to bury him. So I I these odds make total sense to me. I understand well Michael Vennem Page is the betting favorite.

I would have him installed as a betting favorite. And frankly, I'd have him installed as a slightly bigger betting favorite than he is because I think he should at least be two to one here. I know the run of Patterson is good, but I'll believe you're going to knock out Michael Vennon Page when you do it, not a moment before.

So, uh, I got the odds that I got MVP at a bit of a worse price. I got minus 185. on my book. But like I said, I think he should at least be two to one, if not more. So I think there's plenty of value here. And my second of two bets is Michael Venom page. Moving on down the list to a fight that I think is going to be quite fun, even if I don't think it's going to be what we would call good. We move to the lay heavyweight division as Iwo Beranuski takes on Austin Lane,

Lane making his 2-05 debut. Baranuski, coming off contender series, he's 1 in O in the UFC. He knocked out Ebo Aslan in December at UFC 323 in Ended up, I don't think making fight of the year list because it was only a one round, but it is the most fun one-round fight

you will ever see. I mean, each dude gets dropped like three times. It is just full hammer and tongs until Ebo finally puts Ewo down. or sorry, Ewo finally puts Ebo down. My mistake. Meanwhile, Lane won in four and won no contest in the UFC. He's got subbed by Vidor Petrino in July.

This, as I said, is Megan's 205 debut. I'm not really sure how that's going to affect him. But we'll talk about it. Odds are hugely in favor of Baranuski, minus 650-ish, come back on Lane, like plus 450, which you would expect. Baranusky's got a little bit of hype. to him and Lane is has been cannon fodder functionally now maybe that changes at 205 that's the thing I'm probably the most interested here is lane is a big fella you know like NFL experience

big dude I think he's six six or something like that so can't I assume he can cut to 205 that this is not something done on a whim that this is a thing he has uh you know made an effort at and is prepared to do. But maybe not. The gap between heavy and light heavy can be fairly big. And again, he's a big fella.

So I'm interested to see how he looks. If he's diminished at all, then this is really bad for him. But if he can carry his athletic traits down to 205, maybe that size gives him a bit more of an edge. His durability, I think is always going to be an issue.

And that to me is ultimately kind of why this fight is line. as it is and why it's as concerning. I comped Bernuski to Jan Blahovic in my contender series breakdown. I graded him as a three-star prospect, like, good, not great. And I think he's just clearly a better fighter than Austin Lane, all things considered. But at this price, I don't, especially because, again, Evo had a back and four scrap with Ebo Aslan.

And so given the variables here, I'm not confident in it. I anticipate Baranuski going to be in individual climbs, even though the price is a little high. It's certainly a big parley fodder. Or if you're looking for the props, you know, the Baranuski inside the distance. Baranuski by K.O. I think minus 210. Frankly, I wouldn't even feel good about that. I would have, if I had to take a bet on this fight, the one that intrigues me, mostly just as like a little fun guy, a throwaway.

is Iwo Baranuski by submission because that price is plus 525. And while Lane has gotten knocked out a bunch, we did just see him get tapped out by Vito Petrino. I think there is a world where Baranuski, who has a couple sub wins, you know, maybe hits a club and sub here. And that's just a bigger price than the minus 200 by K.O. But I bet a lot of people put Baranuski by K.O.

And honestly, those tickets probably do end up cashing. we move on to the middleweight division for a fight that is kind of buried in the middle of this main card and should probably be getting much higher recognition because it is featuring Roman DeLise, who is a ranked UFC middleweight, taking on Christian Leroy Duncan, who I don't believe is ranked but is going to be after this because Roman DeLidze is number 11. CLD on quite the run right now, three-fight winning streak, knocked out Marco Tullio in November. Deleuze meanwhile, three and two of his past five, been a staple of the, you know, UFC's middleweight division, despite taking one or two fights up at light heavyweight for

funzies. But he's coming off, I mean, the worst loss of his career, he got submitted by Anthony Hernandez in August in a fight that genuinely has me concerned about what Deleesey looks like moving forward. And odds makers too, because Deleuze, he is a fairly big under. dog here. I mean, we don't, we don't have to split hairs. Looking at the odds right now, let me get the latest odds because this line has moved a little bit. Yeah, he is a plus 375 underdog, CLD minus 500.

And again, makes sense. If you're looking at the betting trends, Delizzee, though, has cashed a lot as a dog, five and four as a dog. So his ROI is positive as an underdog. Cl, only five and two is a betting favorite. So he has hurt you on occasion, something too. consider. But I mean, these odds make sense. Deleide's a older in general, not in coming off like a really dispiriting loss to Fluffy. The one thing I won't say the way Fluffy beat him is not the way

CLD gets down. Right. And so maybe that gets Deleadze. He might be getting undervalued, especially if he is mentally there, if he didn't get broken or set back by that sort of a loss. But like, yeah, I mean, the question for me more is can CD? add another spinning COO because he's coming off a I think a spinning back fist and a spinning back elbow can you do a spinning back kick KO

or a wheel kick KO that'd be cool I am if the number keeps going I'm like starting to get marginally interested in Deleadze and his upset potential because of how the fight will play out but CLD has been fairly kind to me from a betting perspective as well so I'm not going to go against him for me

I'm just straight up passing on this fight but like the previous fight. I expect CLD to be in a lot of parlays, and I understand it, even if I'm not following suit. And the last fight on the main card, back to the featherweight. That's right, three featherweight fights on the main card,

four featherweight fights overall, so having some fun in London. Curtis Campbell makes his UFC debut coming off the Contender series, taking on Danny Silva. Campbell A. No, as a prospect of a little bit of hype coming off Contender series

because he has a gimmick, he is called the Pink Panther, he wears pink shorts, there's a whole thing you can read about it. I guess that that's just not going to, he's still going to be the Pink Panther, but I don't think that's going to work for him in the UFC because nobody has pink shorts for him to wear. Maybe one day he'll get that sorted.

Danny Silva, he's coming off a unanimous decision lost to Kevin Vageos in August, which ages better by the day, because he didn't get, you know, that's a UD loss of his Eos, not getting murdered like Josh Emmett just was. Fun little side note, the Pink Panther versus the Puma going on here. So, Battle of the Big Cats. And I think these odds are wrong, straight up.

I will peel back the curtain. I originally, when I briefly was looking at this card, I was like, we can do a Panther parlay because I love a gimmick parley. There was a Soza parlay last week that I forgot to put it in. in which would have cash, which is a bummer. There's a Panther parlay because Los Inqueda is the Black Panthers. You could do Pink and Black Panther, pair them together, have yourself a time. Both are betting favorites, but I really like Danny Silva's upset potential here.

You know, both of them were highly rated prospects on the Continue Series. Campbell, I get rated as a four-star prospect last year's CS, and I Compton to Patty Pimbled. I mean, a little bit from a style standpoint, though I do think Campbell was a, is a better striker than pimlet was when he made his UCD debut but mostly from a he's a popular dude he's got uh he is a kind of a funky grappler and he's got some spirit to him silver meanwhile i just think i graded him as a four-star prospect or the equivalent back in 2023 he's got great boxing and he is just a way better athlete than Curtis campbell and you know when you the thing is if you take a step like i'm i'm a little confused

used why Campbell is getting the love other than he is the new hot thing. And Danny Silva has been in the UFC for a minute. And it's been a little, it's been overwhelming, straight up. Like a couple of split decision wins. One of them he missed weight on. And then a UD lost to Kevin Vos. But again, that UD lost to Kevin Vos is probably a better accomplishment than anything straight up that Curtis Campbell has done in his career, you know.

He was a FCC champion and beat some fairly good dudes, right? Like, I'm not trying to diminish this, but I think Kevin James Davis is about to win a belt in the next two years. And Danny Silva's done better against him in the UFC than anybody else has. I think his boxing is great. His athleticism is great. If he can avoid the takedowns of Curtis Campbell, that is the thing to me that is going to dictate this fight. Curtis Campbell is he going to shoot some takedowns, man. let me pull up the Contender Series thing because he got two in the span of like four seconds or something.

It was because he ran over the duty fall in Contender series. But Danny Silva has not given up a lot of takedowns in his career. He shoots some himself because he is a full-fledged, well-rounded mixed martial artist. Hasn't given up a lot. I think he's going to do his best to avoid grappling exchanges and let his boxing do the work. And I really like him as an underdog bet, frankly. So one of my, I think that's the third bet I have on this card is Danny Silva at plus 180. Moving on to the prelims, going to go a little bit faster here.

Because I've been trying, you know, I understand that when I'm flying solo, we don't want to go super long. But I feel like I've been going real fast. But we're going to move pretty quickly through the rest of these because there's not a ton that I have to say about most of these fights. But the main card's got some good, got some highlights on it. This next fight, I frankly don't have much to say. Mason Jones takes on Axel Sola in the lightweight division. Jones, your betting favorite right now. Let me actually pull up the right now odds on that because I have old odds.

Jones minus 130, Sola plus 105. Jones is on two-fight winning streak since he came back to the UFC. He was in the UFC, got bounced out fairly quickly, frankly. And then since his return put together to just knocked out, Belagio. okay back in September. Sola, you, I genuinely did not know that this dude had fought in the UFC. It entirely escaped me. So, sure, 1 and O in the UFC, he's got a TK whenever he, uh, Reese McKee in September.

Jones is a cage warrior guy, you know, and I mean, that's sort of the thing. When we go to London, there's always a lot of cage warriors guys rolling in. I think you could do fairly well betting against cage warriors dudes in the UFC. uh, Axel is a former Ares champion he had four Tiler defenses, right? Like it's, I don't know what to make of this fight

because I don't have a great read on, on, uh, Sola Axel, frankly. Jones is, they're sort of classic. And we'll talk about this, frankly, with the next guy as well here. uh, Jack of all trades, master of none, like a well-rounded,

competent fighter. Sola seems to have shown a little more upside. And so I do, I have some, passing interest in an underdog bet on him, but the odds aren't super long and the guys he beat in Aries, although I think I have a lot of respect for Aries as a fight organization, not great. The one thing I will say is that he has an enormous AMI career. You know, he did the IMMF Euro AMI thing, like world champion thing.

so just like he despite only being you know 11-0 and one in his career he has a ton a ton of experience and against guy like mason jones frankly that might just be enough he's also a little more physical a little more aggressive i'm as we're doing this i'm just like straight up talking myself into a sola axle bit and this is bad like this is just straight up bad gambling i want everyone to be aware of this, but I think I am going to put in a solar axle bet, uh, because I can get him in an underdog price and that seems okay to me. And I just, four bets is just not a lot, especially when we're going to climb. So let's put one in. Sola axle as an underdog, uh, just the hope is of course

that his physicality can sort of come. He's much bigger than Mason Jones. Uh, so he's, he's bigger. He's younger, a little more physical, not as experienced professionally, but has a ton of experience. If Jones takes them down a bunch, that's going to be a real problem because that is, you know, Reese McKee shot one takedown, succeeded on one takedown, but Axel ended up getting him. And I think, I think that can happen for Mason Jones. I think Mason Jones can get got. Never been finished, though.

So maybe that's, I've talked myself into a stupid bet and now I'm trying to talk myself out of it. We don't need to do that. Let's fine. let's have some fun with Sola Axel. Viva La France, you know. Moving back to the featherweight division, Nathaniel Wood taking on Losing, Keita mentioned this one earlier because Keita the Black Panther, he's an Octagon champ making his UC debut and he is the betting favorite minus

195 or so. Those odds may have shifted, but it's going to be functionally close enough to that. Wood plus 180 as the underdog. Wood's on a three-fight winning streak. has looked quite good since moving up to featherweight a few years back. He's coming off unanimous decision winner of Jose Delgado in October. Problem is he feels a little tweenery for featherweight and bantam weight, right? Whereas he's just definitely small at featherweight despite his success here.

And Lois and Kate the man, he has looked quite good out in the world in Octagon. And not won't be that much bigger than Nathaniel would, frankly. maybe we got things going on there Kate has got a ton of buzz though this is a good matchup this is a great fight I think the best fight on the undercard by a good margin certainly the one of the most interested in

frankly probably should be on the main card if we're being real like I said I wanted to do a Black Panther party because I do think I like Glowson Kate as chances to get a dub here but in the absence of that because I'm taking Danny Silva I you can convince me

to make a bet on Losing Kato, but the odds are moving because actually looking at it now, I just pulled up the new odds. Mine is 240 for Losing Kato on my book. And that's a bit bigger of a price than I really want to pay here. So I'm probably just going to sit this one out.

I already added one random bet that I didn't need to. I don't need to add a second. So, but it's going to be really fun scrap. I'm looking forward to it. We go to the heavy weights in the scrap I am not looking forward to, frankly, and we're not going to talk about much.

Mario Pinto takes on Felipe Franco Pinto a minus 1,000 betting favorite to come back on Franco plus 650 You know Pinto's 3-0 in the UFC I think he's ranked Coming off a knockout of Jeanada Denise in October This is Franco's UFC debut he was on contender series In a scrap that was okay He ended up losing I think in the last minute Went on to the regional circuit picked up a couple of wins here he is this is a squash match.

Odds are too long on Pinto though. Like I think Pinto's going to win, but I just, I wouldn't bet a minus a thousand on Mario Pinto. So yeah, just save yourself some time. You don't need that parley fodder going on. We move on to the middleweight division as Montas, Condra Tivisius. I hope I got that right.

Takes on Antonio Tricoli in another squash match. Contra Divisius minus, you know, 5, 9,600. Oh, I'm sorry, he's ballooned to minus 750. Geez, we're getting a lot of these matches in the UFC now. Antonio Tricoli plus 550. This is Condra's, Conra Tavisius' UFC debut. Tricoli, unclear why he's in the UFC.

He's 0 and 3 in the promotion on this run. It's been finished in all three of his fights. So I guess it is clear why he's here. He's here to do this job. But I didn't even like Montes coming off of contingency as that much. I only rated him as a two-star. I comped him to Tim Boch because he is just kind of a powerful brawlerish dude, but this is a big price to pay for a guy, even though the most likely outcome is he rolls right over Antonio Tricoli, whose job is to get blasted out of there. But yeah, this fight is just happening.

And sure is. Sure is just happening. I move back to the heavyweights for another fight that, I mean, at least this one is competitive, I guess, if these are. are the things we're looking for. As Louis Southern takes on Brenda Parachicich. Parachic, your betting, favorite minus 275. They come back on Sutherland Plus 220. Sutherland, 0-1 in the UFC, got heel-hooked by Walter Walker in October.

No shame in that, everybody gets heel-hooked by Walter Walker. Parachic, 1-0 in the UFC, knocked out Alicia Ellison in September in a fight I, I'm certain I've watched and could not tell you the single thing about. From a nickname standpoint, because I do like to point these out, the vanilla gorilla versus the Vulcan bear kind of like both of those Those are fun nicknames Not the best in the card but you know We've got some Panthers

We've got a gorilla we've got bears Oh my This is bad heavy weight Just is what it is man Peyich has never gone to the third round And he's lost one fight Like he's been to the second round once And he lost that fight

So I would say If you Louis Soutreland Try and drag us in the deep waters See if you could make some hay there and frankly, I've took a silly bet on this one because long-time listeners will know I used to have a gimmick called heavyweight overs. While I'm not bringing those to bear on the Mario Pinto fight, this kind of feels to me like a heavyweight overfight. Like I'm just getting despite, if you look at the numbers, it suggests that this should not at all be a heavyweight overfight overfight. But it's feeling like we're going to go a little bit long.

This is going to get real grimy and heavyweighty. So the over one and a half I got it plus money and I took it at plus 105 for my last bet of the evening. Let's talk about the others real fast. Shimrock takes on Abdul Karim Al-Sawadi in a lightweight contest. Al-Sawaddi is your betting favorite, minus 125. Shimrock plus 100. This is his first fight in two years for Al-Sawadhi. Rock was on contender series and lost as you.

U.S. debut to Nerulo Aliev. I just simply don't care about this fight. I don't think either are like super great prospects, and I don't even feel confident with Al-Sawadhi given the long layoff. So just going to be a stone cold pass for me. A fight that I was really considering for the climb, though, is this penultimate one for us to discuss, at least as far as the UFC card goes,

at Chanel Dyer taking on Ravina Olavera Dyer, minus 475 betting favor olivera plus 350 uh this is dire's uc debut she's coming off contender series where i rated her as a four-star prospect and compt her to angela hill i like her she's big for this weight class she's a former moitai champion like she's she is a a good not great striker she still needs to continue developing adding tools to her striking kit but she's got the bones of something that can be good in the strawweight division Meanwhile, Revin Olivaa, also a moitai person, just worse at moitai. And, you know, O and two in the UFC got submitted by Stephanie Luciano in October.

I really strongly considered Chanel Dyer here for the climb. And then I thought about it such to the point where I had it plugged in, but I couldn't convince myself to click submit. I just don't want this client to be tied up in a person making their UFC debut in women. in straw weight who has shown some promise but not enough i do anticipate she gets the win here and i think chanelle dyer is perfectly fine parley fodder if you're throwing her into some random mix of parley but i won't be doing it and then we move to the opening bout of the evening we head to the illustrious women's bantamweight division as the one of carolina takes on melissa mullins

carolina the betting favorite minus 130 mullins plus 105 you know both are mid-lis mid-lose level ban on weights. Mollins is two and two in the U.C. lost her last fight to Darya Zelaziochova back in June. Carolina is three and two over her past five. She's been in the U.C. for a hot minute at this point, but it's also coming off a loss to Michelle Montague in September. And frankly, the odds just seem right, you know. I think this is close to a coin flip, but I would slightly favor Carolina.

Carolina is a better striker. Can well as get this fight to the ground? She can. Mollins has a good chance to win. If the number moves much more aggressively and we start getting Mullins at a plus 150, then I think you're getting a lot of value there. But in the absence of that, yeah, just not for me. Very briefly, let's show just the merest modicum of love for the PFL. Because the PFL, they are having a card this weekend.

PFL Madrid, it's on Friday. So that's important on Friday. ESPN. Middleweight champion, Castel Levan Stinas, I think this is the first defense of his title as he takes on Fabian Edwards,

which is frankly a good fight. And the odds reflect as less. Castel van Scenus minus 120, Fabian Edwards, minus 105. I frankly kind of like a bet on Fabian Edwards here. I have not done it.

I'd like him to get to plus money, and I think that can happen. But, you know, Fabian, lost a competitive fight to Johnny Eblen. He lost the first fight to Johnny Eblen was competitive until it wasn't. Then he lost a competitive fight to Johnny Eblen.

But went on a three-fight win streak last year. You know, a couple of knockouts blew up Dalton Rosto. Obviously, if you're MMA-Mathing it, Castellon-Sin has submitted Johnny Eblen. That being said, he was losing that fight pretty comprehensively. And he pulled it off. So credit to him, because that was submission of the year last year. It was an incredible comeback win with, you know, 10 seconds left or whatever it was in the fight.

But, you know, that didn't inspire confidence. And so if Fabian gets to plus money, I'm going to take a crack at him because I think he has a very good chance to win this. But I don't want to lay even money or minus numbers on Fabian Edward. So if by Friday Fabian gets two plus money, then I'll take a shot at him. the co-main event also like a I mean a real bellator fight frankly but not a bad fight at all as AJ McKee

returns to featherweight maybe his fight before this was featherweight he takes on Adam Borch and this is the one where maybe I'll climb with AJ McKee because AJ McKee's minus 350 Adam Borch plus 250 you know

Borch he let me pull up I can't remember what he did in the turn last year. He beat Jeremy Kennedy on a card, but he lost Jesus Panato in the actual tourney. You know, Adam Borch is that good

not great guy, right? Every time he has had an opportunity to really put a name on something, he famously beat Aaron Pico, but Aaron Pico is Aaron Pico. Sometimes he just loses fights. So, you know, he lost Aaron Caldwell when he was on a real run. Like when, I mean, I think he was undefeated at that point. We were like, oh, maybe Adam Borge is the guy.

He beat Aaron Pico. He loses to Daryng Caldo. It puts together another run. Gets a title fight. Lose to Patricio Pitbull. You know, got blown up by Jesus Panato. And I, he's no longer a prospect, and it's wild because he's 30. But, like, I still am a believer in general in what AJ McKee brings to the table.

He also, he obviously famously beat Patricio Pitbull and then lost their rematch. He lost a sputty to Paul Hughes, who I am extremely high on and all. Also, that was at lightweight, and he is just a better featherweight. And so honestly, I'm talking myself into this right now. I actually think I'm going to plug in A.J. McKee as the climb. Because I'm only just now looking at these odds. I knew this event was happening, but odds weren't all my book when I was setting my bets this week.

So looking at these odds now, minus 350. I think I like that for A.J. McKee. so, you know, follow along on MMA fighting, and I'll confirm when I put the bed in, but that is most likely going to happen. The rest of this card, nothing really to talk about. Lynn Vassel, another name that people would know, taking on a heavyweight, Brazilian heavyweight Jose Augusto.

It's a fine fight. There's some other things happening, but this is get a lot of Spanish fighters. This is classic peak bellator action here. of let's get the locals. But frankly, good on him, right? Because Castello von Steenis, the Spaniard, Castello von Sestinus, you know,

reppping Spain, let him go, you know. While you can criticize PFL for many things, promotionally, they do at least give their champions opportunities in a way the UFC does not, because the U.S. he goes where the money is. So good on them. But tune in Friday for PFL, Madrid, especially the top couple of fights.

you'll probably have some fun. You'd throw it on while you're working, and that'll be okay. And ladies and gentlemen, that's it for us. Frankly, went much longer than I anticipated going, but I guess we did have a second event to talk about.

Next week, though, are we still got action? I mean, next week there's an RIF, but we don't talk about that here. But we head to Climate Pledge Arena for U. U.S.

Seattle and Israel Adisina versus Joe Pfeiffer, plus some other stuff that is happening. Mostly not great, but it is happening. We will try and get the game, we won it this week for next week. Hopefully that can happen. And hopefully we will be up a bunch of money on these bets and the climb will still be rolling. Good luck to all of you this weekend. Thanks for

listening. Love y'all.