MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Sending 2022 Off In Style With Big Bets At UFC Vegas 66

Episode Date: December 14, 2022

Coming off an up-and-down week at UFC 282, the No Bets Barred boys are back to discuss the final UFC event of the year, UFC Vegas 66. Headlined by a Top-10 middleweight clash between Jared Cannonier and Sean Strickland, UFC Vegas 66 features 14 fights, and since it's the final event of the year, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew decide to get after it with a ridiculous number of plays on the card, including dissension in many of their bets, except when it comes to that tried and true No Bets Barred tradition: Flyweight Unders. Tune in for Episode 29 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. ...to the Vox Media Podcast Network. It's going on, y'all. We are back.

It is another edition of No Bet's Bar, this time. The final UFC card of the year, UFC Apex 66, Jared Canineer, Sean Strickland, we're coming off. UFC 282, last pay-per-view event of the year. Jed, how we feeling, man? Yeah, I'm great, man. This is, well, great, maybe an overstatement. 282.

Tough, tough in some regards. And we'll hop in a second. No really tough ending for you there. Yeah, I'm fortunate. But I enjoyed the card immensely. I thought it was one of the funniest cards of the year by far. Yeah, I mean, the, the, pure entertainment factor leading up to those last two fights and then just the last two fights

being the topic of conversation for the rest of the week just because of how wild the decisions ended up being uh yeah i mean overall an entertaining card there's no doubt about that yeah it was uh you know not the best card of the year but like you said uh 10 finishes what 10 in a row and then we get the final two and neither finished but uh undeniably funny outcomes in both in both situations Mogamad decision ticket how were you feeling going to the scorecards

I cashed it's like oh cool nailed it I actually saw someone tweeted right after the fight ended it they were like Magamagamagasces the parley for us let's go he ended up not cashing the parlay yeah easy boom

just I was like okay well we did it good work because I scored the fight 49 46 in real time, which... Yeah, I actually think I did too. I think I went four to one Magamad. The first one and three were obviously incredibly close. Two to Yon.

I didn't think one was close. And even on rewatch, I still feel really confident. Magamad won that round. Three was the one that I could have totally been wrong. Like, I gave it for Magamad because Jan really did nothing other than the leg kicks. And then in my head, I was like, well, yeah, he's still kicking the leg. leg and that's like offense. But it felt like I was double rewarding him for the offense from round two because it's not

like he landed a ton of leg kicks in the third. He just, everyone he landed hurt him because he had already heard him in the second. So that's why I ended up scoring that round for Magma. Because Magma did come back and do a lot of other things in that round. But like if you want to say that I'm absolutely crazy and that's wrong, fair. I still would have scored it through three two to Magamette because I thought one, one to me seemed pretty clear to Magamad. Yeah, I scored one for Magamette in real time

and looking back on the statistics and rewatching it. I mean, he did outstrike him, and we didn't really see the leg kicks fully come into play yet at that point. So he had some really good kick, like, teeps to the body in that round. Like, I thought Magamad had a great first round. And then I can promise you this. He did not lose that fight.

Like Magamette, Uncleive, did not lose that fight. No, I think it draws a, as a fine scorecard. I'm honestly not a huge fan of giving him the fifth as a 10-8, though I understand it. So it's just whatever. Like, you can't be unhappy with that outcome, right? Like, it's not a huge swing. I will say.

I think my initial bias and disappointment. And just like, it feels like you fall so flat when the main event is a draw. Always. Like, it just feels so. flat. I feel like the initial reaction was a lot of disappointment, but like, looking back, it, I'm with you. It really is not the worst scorecard ever. No, it's totally fine. I will say, though, speaking of the bet, well, I felt great about the decision prop, you know, heading to the cards, and then that got pulled out from under me. I, uh, I did not feel very good

in like round two beginning of round three. I was like, oh, oh, terrible things have happened. I had convinced myself about halfway through round two that this was just an inevitability that Magamad was going to take one of these leg kicks, fall to the ground, can't continue. I'm done, I can't continue. I mean, you talk about the championship medal of him, dude, to completely switch up the game plan

and find a ton of success with it. I mean, it speaks volumes about the guy. Here's the thing. I don't think he switched up the game plan. I think he finally started following the game plan. Because his corner was telling him, was like, what are you doing? doing do the things you're good at and it like at no point every time he went back to his corner

they were like chastising him and he finally went to the wrestling in the fourth like because he got that one at the end of the third and then he was like I can do this I'll just do this and I was like oh you wouldn't have had to fight this wouldn't have been a contest if you had just gone to this early on in the second round after you're starting to get chopped up just go to it didn't do So I think he finally did the game plan. And that's why he had the success late. He finally stopped being dumb. Yeah, I mean, that could certainly be it.

I mean, I obviously found a ton of success. And Jan off of his back is really, he's not, he can't do a tonne. Especially with a guy like Magamad. I just always have viewed Magamemad more as a striker than I have a wrestler. Oh, he definitely is. But it's that Yan is so. like, Yon's not a good defensive wrestler, like realistically. And so you just, it's the old GSP thing.

You take your opponent to where they're the weakest. And Magamad had, if you certainly if you have the ability to, Magamad absolutely, as we saw, could do it. And he chose to fight where Yan was strongest. And it almost cost him a loss and did in fact cost him a chance to win the title at this point, right? Oh, I mean, 100%. There's, it's, it feels like it's going. to be a lengthy road back to

another chance of that for Magamad, just with the way that they're moving the light, heavyweight division. So we did the watch party on Saturday. They do a chat bet. Chat bet. You just leave it all up to the chat. It's got to be plus money. They hit a Ponziabio by knockout plus 215. I said, you know what?

I said, you know what? Let's let let it ride on the main event. And we let it all ride on Jan by knockout plus 550. I was, I can't lie. I was a little little excited when it looked like Jan might get the leg gig TKO because it was a hefty, hefty payout.

I think it was like 40 to win $220. Like I was, I was feeling pretty decent on the, on the chat at that point. I mean, that's, that's a good one. Can we talk about that Ponsonibio?

Yeah. That one hurt. First of all, first of all, Marona looked great. Yeah, looked actually on a short notice. Good for him.

Second of all, Ponzenegiate. Mibio out of nowhere. Third of all, my God, that's the second time. That's the second time this year. People ask me, Connor, why do you hate overs? Like, they hit, you know, they're nice, like, especially when they're easy, and it never even seems like it. No, overs are the worst.

They are nothing but stress and agony, the entire bet. And then you can have shit like that happen. I mean, it's just like, the fact that I've had it happen twice this year, and then Rafael Fazeev versus Brad Radell. Was that in 2022? No, I don't think so. I think that was last year. I think that was late in 2021.

That one missed by two seconds. I mean, it's just like, oh, it hurts so bad when the overs miss like that. It's so brutal, especially because, like, it wasn't like a clean K-O-K-K-O. So the stoppage was correct, not here to say it. But if you had just gotten like somebody a little slower, on the trigger as the ref just get you that extra two seconds.

And it's just like you're like damn, did I see that right? Did I really see that right? 231? Like is that actually, did that actually just happen? And then Bruce Buffer comes on and he's like, by knockout and two minutes and 29 seconds.

It's just like, oh my God. Yeah, that was, I mean, honestly, I was having such a good night. I had two double hitters. Chris Curtis and the under there. And then Drichus duplice and the fight doesn't go to a decision there. And it's just like there's such a high when you get a double hitter. Like when a finish gives you two wins at the same time, it's just such a great feeling.

And then those last three fights, the over two and a half in the Ponsonibio fight. Patty, I had minus three and a half on the judge's scorecards. He wins by three after you had a lot. them all up. I live bet Jared Gordon thought that was a terrible decision, so that was a bad beat. And then the mockament draw. Yeah, the last three fights were not kind to me. Just a tough end. I want to be mad about the Patty thing just because I, as you know, faded Patty because, you know, rep the squad, not going to support the man, Jared Gordon. Jerry Gordon did enough. Should have probably gotten the W. I, unlike the vast majority of the MMA world, I don't think that the

that's a robbery. But it is very tough beat for Jared Gordon. Tough beat. That was the difference between a winning and a losing week for me.

So that's, it's very, well, either that or the two seconds on Ponsonibio would still be like basically a break-even because Bellator was

unkind to me. As it typically is. Yeah, I did find in the UFC, Bellator tougher. Bellator is just the worst. I mean, it's just,

I only had, I had two bets down. I went one and one. That was that. Got on with my night. It was actually like I've found myself having much more restraint on Bellator lately. That's some wise. I mean, it is wise. I was out and about in the city on Friday,

and I just kind of pulled up the tapology when there were maybe seven or eight fights in. And I was just like, oh, my God, I'm so glad I did not touch this Bellator card. Like Pat Downey got knocked out in the first round, like wild underdogs cashing. And everyone's always just like, oh, why don't you just play the big dogs in Bellator? Because then when I play the big dogs, the big dogs lose. I can promise you. It feels so much. That feels so true.

Bellator like nine times out of ten, it's just chalk city. But the one time you try and get in on the dog, that's when the nonsense, Aaron Pico gets bolted and just stupid, ridiculous things happen in Belator. It's a chaos organization. You can't bet it with any reasonable. going into a Bellatory evening that chances are you're going to lose money yeah you it is not a profitable endeavor to bet on that organization so uh but yeah i i actually don't think that the patty pimbleit decision's terrible um it's not i think it's terrible it's not good yeah i don't think it's a robbery um i don't know what a robbery like like i feel like that's always a defining thing when we get

these bad decisions is that a lot of people come out there like bad decision don't know if it's a robbery. Like, I guess what, how would you define a robbery that there is no possible way that you could have technically scored that fight for Patty Pimblit? That would characterize it as a robbery. Pretty much. Not exactly that. But yeah, it has to be super egregious that any, I just sort of look at it as what are

the reasonable outcomes here? And I think that this is one of the more, like this is less likely. Like if reasonable is a spectrum, this is less reasonable than, you know, 29, 28 Gordon. but it's not egregious. Like, because I think that, I think the first round is very clearly that Jared Gordon. A lot of people gave Gordon the third.

I gave Patty the third, um, based on the scoring criteria. And I tweeted this after in a perfect world, in a world where the scoring criteria more accurately aligned with how I think fight should be viewed, that fight would be 30, 28 Gordon. So I thought Gordon did better work in rounds one and two.

And the third round, I thought nothing substantive really happened. But that's the biggest thing about that third round. I'm with you. A lot of people are being like, including Dana White, like, yeah, Jared Gordon didn't do anything in that third round. What did Patty do? Nothing. Like Patty did slightly more than Jared Gordon based on the scoring criteria as currently exists.

Jared Gordon landed like four strikes. Patty took the back at one point. It landed a few more. Like it is not a huge. It's my biggest issue with scoring is that it actively works away from 10, 10 rounds. because they don't want those. And I think that that is a really flawed way to view fighting because sometimes rounds are even.

But the scoring criteria is extremely biased against things being even. And so based on that, I do think Patty should have won the third. But like I said, in a more realistic world, I think that's just an even round. Like neither man did anything substantive. but if you if you view it the way you like hardline are supposed to is that and then i think jared gordon landed the better shots in the second i also i knew for i was shocked because i wasn't watching the watch long but i talked to mike afterwards in the post show and he was like we were

all shocked and i was like really i was dead certain patty was winning that uh because the second round i knew for a fact that they were all going to score it for patty and i like i said i didn't agree, I thought Jared did the better work, but he was not, it was not as clear cut as the first round. And at the end, like, I think I wrote, I was doing the live blog and I wrote, uh, yeah, Patty probably stole it with that last like 15 seconds because it was a back and forthish round and then he just did more stuff. Even if it wasn't effective, he was, he looked like he was doing stuff. And so I knew, I officially scored it 29, 28, uh, Patty during the live blog. of trying to predict what I think the judges are going to do.

And so I was dead certain he was winning it when it went to the card. So I was shocked here that everybody was so surprised. I don't know how you feel that way watching that fight. I mean, Jared Gordon won the fight. I mean, you talked about how clearly... Judges are stupid, man. It's easy to know where judges are dumb. The first round was.

Like, it was... Jared Gordon won the first round. It is unequivocal. Like, he won the first round. Go to the judge's score cards. two of the judges gave the first round of Patty. Had they all across the board giving it to Jared Gordon, Jared Gordon wins the fight.

So that's my only true issue with the score is how they got there. I think a 29-28 scorecard for Pembley is defensible. Maybe not what I would score, but I think that that's reasonable. Everybody giving Patty the first round, that's the problem I truly have with it. Because that's just bad judging. But, you know, we get bad judging all the time. Yeah, I mean, I just kind of used to it at this point.

I just like point blank think Jared Gordon won the fight. Yeah, probably should have. Like, without a doubt, after having watched it twice now, it's just like, Jared Gordon won this fight. I mean, also I love how, like, Patty claims that he took the third round off, yet getting some of those rounds, like that won it for the, I can't remember his name, middle judge, whichever judge it was. I don't know.

gave him the third round, which gave him Patty on his scorecard. The Patty won all the rounds, though. Didn't you hear him? He's done nothing wrong. Fight of the night. Fight of the night. I've done nothing wrong in my entire life ever.

I'm the greatest. I know, and I hope that, like, me ripping on him doesn't, like, show, like, bias, but it's just like, it's like,

he just, like, did not win that fight. And then, like, to leave the octagon and be, like, fight of the night

after there'd been 10 finishing. Fight of the night was the funniest thing ever heard. finishes leading up to that point. Like, that was just crazy to me. Crazy. Yeah.

It would appear that Patrick Pimbled does not have a ton of self-awareness, which a lot of fighters don't. So, you know, it's not like the worst thing. But it was interesting how quickly this week seemed to, how this past week seemed to really mark a lot. a line in the sand, a turning point for his career where he is going to be really divisive moving forward, I feel like. Previously most people, like some people, certainly MMA heads,

me were like, yeah, he's not very good. That's still, that is going to increase a lot after this. But just the way he handed the whole week, there are a lot more people who actively don't like Patty Pimblet. And that's very different because I think, think the rest of this year he had established himself as this like charismatic likeable young star and now we're here and i'm interested to see where it goes yeah me too um that's pretty much all i've got to say on ufc 282 i did end up a couple units uh in the green which is nice hopefully

can finish the year with a with a winning night but we do still have rise in bellator to come uh on new year's eve if they post lines he'll probably get some action down on that any uh other closing thoughts on UFC 282. Shouts to Chris Curtis, you know, cash in the wool pack wager for us. Heavyweight overs. How do you feel on the heavyweight over?

You know, the last two heavyweight overs have not been as captivating or dynamic. They have been really, really unfortunate to watch. We'll live to see another one in, in 2023. I can assure you that.

Well, the experiment will continue because it's so damn fun. But these last two, there hasn't even been the sway. It's just been like, oh, well, that's done. All right, moving on. Moving on. All right. Speaking of moving on, let's move on to UFC Apex 66 is Jared Cananeer taking on Sean Strickland in the main event. Right now, you can get Sean Strickland for pretty much even money, minus 110, minus 115 each way. Like, this is a very closely contested fight on the odds. Right now, you can get the fight goes to a decision minus 105.

Fight does not go minus 125. That's actually vice versa. It is favor to go to a decision. What are you thinking here, man? I got an interesting little bet down. Oh, an interesting little bet. A very interesting bet. Thanks to our friends over Draft King's sports book.

I love that. Well, before we hop into it, let me just say, I came into this car. We talked about a lot. I came into this card. thinking that I'm not going to do too much. I don't. Oh, I got a lot of action. I had a lot.

I didn't have as much time to do the tape study. I'm going to be real honest. Pretty slacking on the do the work rule on this one, done not nearly as much. And yet I somehow still have like 12 bets down. Yes. Yes. I think I literally have, I have 12 singles, two parleyes,

and I'm going to cook up a third parlay. as we go through this card, I can assure you that. I just want to bounce some ideas off of you. All right, so here's my bet. I love it. So I can't decide if I should preface it or just go ahead and say it.

I'll just go ahead and say it. It is Sean Strickland by decision or Jared Canineer by KOTKO minus 165. Oh, I love this bet. I am actually a huge fan of this. I had my eye on it since. I like this bet way more than the bet I have. Yeah, so like I like I literally wrote in my notes before became available.

I was like, I really hope that a book offers a double chance on this and then it's at a playable price. I mean, just watching these guys looking back at their records, like I just feel like this is Sean Strickland outvoluming, just kind of boxing his face off. And we're just waiting for the shot from Jared Cannonier and it never comes and he wins a decisive decision or Jared Cannoneer. finds the chin and put Sean Strickland out. I mean, I know we saw Sean Strickland knocked out last time against Alex Pereira, but like that isn't the first time that he's been knocked out in his career. Zaleski did it as well. I think it's possible for Jared Kahnier to find the chin.

So I absolutely think it's possible. That's why my bet is a prop on Canadaier by KOTCO plus 275. I briefly considered playing him straight just because it's, It's even money almost. But then I was like, if he's going to win, he's going to win by knockout. Like that's almost certainly it's going to happen. But yeah, the concern is exactly what you said, that cannonear sometimes doesn't pull the trigger. This is one of those situations where he just kind of recedes inside himself and Strickland just sort of out volumes him, maybe mixes in a takedown or two.

Does Sean Strickland do things and wins a decision over five rounds? I ultimately think five rounds just gives Canaanier so much time to land the shot that he's gonna I'm betting on him to pull the trigger but I love you two-way action that feels like a really safe bet if we're being honest

I'm hoping it is I mean Cananeer six of his eight wins in the UFC are by knockout Sean Strickland eight of his 12 wins in the UFC are by knockout I just never been knocked out at middleweight yeah like he's He's not an especially chinny dude, and it's not like Sean Strickland is really like a power puncher when he gets in there.

He's looking to throw out the jab, get, you know, 160 to 180 significant strikes over the five rounds. And Canineers are looking to come in there and blast your face off. Yeah, it's a very cheeky bet. Very reasonable. I like it. I probably won't join you just because I don't want to have too much exposure. Two bets down on this fight basically. And I'll stick with my plus 275 and just hope for the one way on the action.

275 is a nice number on that for a essentially in a 20 fight. And like his most likely path to victory is knocking this dude out. Yeah. That's why I took it. I was really surprised when I looked at it. I was like, because I was thinking about taking him straight because I expected to not get much juice on the by KOTKO thing. just because, I mean, look, 10 of his 15 career wins are by knockout, two or by submission, he's gone.

He's won three decisions in his entire career. So it was very, very surprising to me that that's kind of where this line is. And so that's where I'm at and we'll just hope. But I got to say, I think you've outbett me on this one. I think that yours is a better bet. Well, we'll see. We will see about that come Saturday. And hopefully, you know, Ken and here just knocks them out and we both end up catching a ticket.

I mean, that would be ideal. I mean, what you said just there. So, like, machete fighting Hoffa Garcia later on, I kind of liked him a little bit by knockout. And he's like, plus 120 dog. And I'm only getting plus 250 as a knockout. And I was just like, yeah, not going to do that. Yeah, you're getting a broader line on Jared Cannon-N-Year by knockout versus his regular. That's absolutely insane.

Seems ridiculous. All right. So we're kind of an agreement on the main event. We think it's either going to be cannoneeer, finding the button, or Sean Strickland, you know. For sure, a true outcome fight. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Oh, what? Sounds like Ojo time.

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I think... I think everyone's main event. Yeah, I was going to say, I don't know if it's the people's main event, but I think it's the people's main event is Armin Saruki and taking on Demir is Magulov. Right now, you can get Armin Surukian for minus 190. Demir is Magulov coming back at plus 160.

If he goes to a decision, minus 200. fight does not go plus 150. I mean, this is just like a high level fight. Like this is, this is like what you could ask for. I feel like if you're not a UFC fan, you could not possibly care less about this fight. Like if you're really not into it, this is flying under your radar. But like for true diehards, like this is the one. Yeah, this is not the people's main event because the people encompasses so many fans.

But for people who go to M.Mayfiting.comGar website, this is the main event of honestly, could be the whole month. This might be the best fight of the whole month. I'm praying it lives up to it. What I'm praying is that it is like, it's similar to the Surukin Gamrod fight, and it's just like a closely contested three rounds, just like back and forth. Like the rounds are tough to decide who wins. Like, I hope it is a really, really close fight.

And I think that's what we're going to get. I mean, I think we got a shot at it for sure. These dudes are fantastic and pretty much everything we just said with how close it's going to be. I took the dog shot on Demerz Magulov. Look at you. I think it's going to be close. I'm so proud of you. I mean, I think it's going to be close going to the scorecards.

Also, Demir's Magulov is on a 19 fight winning streak. Is that good? What's new high school mean? 16 of them are against opponents with winning records. and he's plus 160, like, that's tough to not bet regardless of who your opponent is. And that's no disrespect Armand Sarukin, because Armand Sarukin is an absolute monster. But, like, in a fight that I really think is going to be very close, very contested, and more than likely, I mean, the odds reflect it will be going to a decision.

I'll take the dog shot here. I'm so proud of you because you never, you just never take the value bets. I'm the guy who's always like, I'm just betting the value shot. You're chalk donkey. I'm so proud of you for this. I am not with you on it. I do not have Armun-sur-Rukee and Straight, though, because I don't love the price at this point. If you're going to bet it straight, I'm actually with you.

I do think the value's there, but you said it. I mean, it's minus 200 to go to the decision, even the way you were talking about it when it goes to the scorecards. I feel very confident this is going to the scorecards. and I like Srukeen to win. I am super, super high on Srukean. I think I have in, like, the top six in my lightweight rankings right now. And he's only 26. He's only getting better.

So I took Srukien by decision plus 130. I like that. That number is much more appealing than minus 190 or whatever. But I think especially if it goes in a fight that we really think is going to go to the score cards, like at that point, we're both holding plus. money. I do have a little bit of a soft spot for, uh, I love the, uh, the Kazakhstan flag. Like I think it's got a tremendous flag. Great colors. I, I met a man that is from Kazakhstan this summer. Uh, he didn't speak much English, but, uh, I did say Shav got Rachmanov and he's,

like, smiled and nodded. I said Demir is Magulov and he like smiled and nodded. Uh, maybe I could have said anything and he was going to smile and nod at me, but it felt like we had a connection there. Uh, And then we moved on with our lives. Wonder where he is right now. Hope he's doing well. Hope he's betting Demir is Magulov this weekend. But yeah, dude, cool flag, great fighters. They have got a couple good fighters going right now.

They actually have two fighters on this card. Might have to cook something up there. But yes, I'm... That's a great idea. I am on Demir. I am with you. I am also on the over. I got it at minus 185, the over two and a half.

Feel pretty good that this one goes. goes to a decision. I think the finishing upside is probably on Sarukian. Amir does not get finishes often. He's typically going to decisions, but I do think this goes at the scorecards. Yeah. If there's a finish, it's Armand,

and I just don't, I don't, the way I envision this fight playing out, it seems unlikely. Because Damir is very tough. I think the big decider for me, I've had a decision that, let's talk about this is a broader thing. It's not just this fight.

I think all of next year, I am almost exclusive of going to bet on the guy who I think is the better athlete. Because it just feels like 95% of fights come down to just who's better at sports. Like who is just the more athletic individual in there? And that guy's going to win. And I think Armand Sarukian is a much superior athlete to Demir at this point. I mean, you talk about looking good getting off the bus. Armin Saruki is that.

Very few people look as good as Aramon Surukin and get both of the butt. That dude is, he's yoked. And yeah, I mean,

he's... Buraked up. Certainly, certainly athletic. So can't wait for that one. Don't blame you for going with Saruki. And I mean,

this is just, this is like, this is what you ask for. Late December, real, real flying under the radar fight. Like, this is for the diehard. It's going to be happening

probably around like 9 o'clock. I love that it's, a four o'clock start. I mean, great way to send out the UFC into 2023. It is. And then, you know what's even better, Connor? The next fight on the card. We lost it last week. That was the worst part of last week. People said the Patty Pemble decision. People said the draw on the main event. People were really saying the over two and a half in Ponziabio or Marona losing by one singular second. No, the worst part of last week was losing the flyweight unders of all flyweight unders.

Salvador versus Daniel De Silva. I mean, that was, that's what Flyweight Underbetters dream about. It was built for us. But don't worry, because we got, we got a couple great representatives of the Flyweight undernation on this card. And first up, it is Amir Al-Bazi taking on Al-Azandro Costa right now. Mirabazi, monster favorite. You can have him for the short price of minus 425.

Costa coming back at plus three-40. The more. important thing though and i'm gonna i'm gonna say this i don't know what you did here i don't know the over under was set at one and a half plus 160 under minus 200 over what i did i said no i'm gonna wait for the alt overs to come out alt over was released under two and a half minus 142 over plus 112 i like that much better and that's what i took i'm on the under two and a half here at minus money i'm on the under one and a half plus i love i love that i didn't even want to way I thought about it.

I was like, I bet we'd get a second one. Didn't even care. It's like, no, because you know why, Amir al-Bazi, that man, that man loves to finish fights, loves to finish them early. Sure does. Loves to finish them early. Four of his last six, finished in the first round. Like this man likes to get, he does not get paid by the minute, you know?

No. Well, guess what? Here's the good news is that his opponent doesn't either. I mean, she sure doesn't. Alessandro Costa has a serious knockout power. he gets a little too cocky. He might find himself flat on his back. Three of his last four gone under the two and a half.

Ten of his 14 have gone under the two and a half, including eight first round finishes. I mean, this is the makings of all we want. Also, I don't know if I'm off here, but just like looking, Amir al-Bazi almost looks like flyweight arm and Sarukian. And they're fighting in back-to-back fights. You know what? Let me pull this up and see because off the top of my head.

Oh, you're not wrong. They look quite similar. You were not wrong at all. So, I mean, maybe just parlay them up then, you know, just parley up the dudes. Yeah, the Siruque and doppelganger parlay there. I love that parlay. Yeah, I mean, it's simple. It's the under here.

I'm on the two and a half. You're on the one and a half. They're both going to cash. That's a for certain. And I did sprinkle Albaughi into a little parlay. I mean, I think he's just a legit prospect. Slick on the ground. And if he avoids the power of Costa, I think he'll be safe to get the win here.

Yeah, I agree. And he's going to win this fight most likely. The price is too high for me to win him in a parlay. But he's probably going to win. So no issues with that. All right. Let's keep it right on rolling, man. I feel like, you know, knock on wood might be jinks on this here.

The pacing is nice. this week. Let's move to a featherweight belt. Pacing's going to be really nice, buddy, because I don't have a lot to say about many of these fights. Several of them are just from the hip. What we do is we give out bets here. We don't give out why we take them. That's actually not true. We give very deep, in-depth breakdown of why we're taking it.

It's Alex Kiseras taking on Julian Arosa. Right now, you can have Arosa for the tasty price of minus 170. Caceres coming back at plus 145. over under is set at two and a half, the over being minus 157, the under being plus 127. You got any action on this one? I do not.

I briefly consider Julian Orosa because I do think he's going to win this fight, but as I was looking at my card, I was just like, I already have a lot of action down, and I don't feel really confident. And I'll be honest, Alice Creseras has a lot of tape to break down, and I didn't really want to watch it all.

I was like, I don't really want to do this. So I'm just not going to bet here. I briefly consider Julian Arosa, and then I bet on Juliana Rosa. I love it. Dudes turned it around. You got that confidence that I lacked. Dudes turned it around. Lost four of his first six in the UFC.

Now he's won five of his last six. And I think one of the biggest things, maybe he's just sticking with me, recency bias. He looked great against the Keem Dawadu. And I was feeling pretty good on Daowadu going into that. He had impressed me of late. I think he just makes fights dirty, turns him into battles, isn't afraid to brawl with people.

And I feel like the way that Casares wins this is kind of staying at range, using the kicks, trying to get the back at some point. And I think Arosa is a competent enough grappler in his own right. I think he's just going to push forward, close the distance,

maybe even use grappling of his own, but I think he gets it done against an aging Casaris, though they are very similar in age. Yeah, like I said, I do think Orozah's going to win just for the reasons you pointed out, but I didn't do enough, didn't do enough research, didn't really want to spend the time. This line just doesn't even look very appealing. So I wish you the best, buddy.

Thank you, sir. And we'll just keep right on moving to a lightweight bout. It's Drew Dover. You talk about looking good getting off the bus. I mean. It's good at all points in time. This man is his first teamer on this one. It's Drew Dover.

Look at that jawline. The jaw line is. it's fake. Like, I don't know if he got implants or what. The thing is a square, chiseled by God himself. It's Drew Dover. Right now, you can have him for minus 150. Taking on Bobby Green,

coming in at plus 130. The over under is set at two and a half, over minus 175 under plus 145. Bangor. Like this, it's hard to imagine this fight not delivering. There's no chance. This fight is, this fight is probably,

the people's main event. Yeah. The fight of the night, I think, almost without question. I think the worst outcome we get is Drew Dober, like, finding a way to starch Bobby Green. And then I think the best outcome is these dudes just throw for 15 minutes back and forth. And it is crazy and hectic as hell. Yeah. I don't think that Drew Dober is going to starch Bobby Green.

I don't think so. I think we're getting just an awesome fight. And I won't tease it anymore. I'm on the underdog here. Give me, give me, Kay. Let's go.

Bobby Green, coming a little plus 130 action. I love Bobby Green. Bobby Green, I've said it for a long time. I think Bobby Green's like, at some point we were having a conversation about who could be the next Torhe

Moss for all, like a guy who's been around for a really long time, but just somehow makes like, catch us some good breaks and becomes this like late, late career star. Bobby Green has been my choice. choice for that because been in the game forever, just a scrappy-ass dude who like really good at all facets of MMA and but just maybe not the most exciting guy at various points in his

career caught a couple of tough losses but he just rules. And I think he's he is such a clever boxer and kickbox. Like he is so he's so much savvy on the feet and Drew Dober is certainly like good in that regard but I mean Brad Riddell tough tough loss there and even Terrence McKinney kind of was put on him before kind of I thought that fight was over

yeah like it's hard for me to say too much since it happened in three minutes or whatever so it's not like Terrence sustained beat him up but he was he was running over him until he stopped I just I think Bobby Green has just got too much craft too much sauce on the feet for him

but this will be fun. Drew's going to get his shots in, but I think this fight should be a pick-em, and so I'm for sure on the plus money, Bobby. Sick. Yeah, I mean, I really can't blame you there. I think it's going to be an awesome fight. I don't have a ton of confidence on which side is going to win,

just because I do think it is a close fight. I am going to use the over one and a half as a parlay piece. You're going to help me build out this parlay later on. It's just the classic Seabarks bet, right? Oh yeah. Classic one. You're going to help me choose the three legs. I've got four options.

We'll drop one. I love that. I love that as a leg. Yeah. So then if it loses, you know, I can just go ahead and blame you. That's just smart betting.

I mean, it is. You always got to have someone to blend. That's why people take our picks so they can just turn to us and be like, you guys are so dumb, even though you're the one who's taking the free picks. Yeah, just if you want some numbers on that,

Doberm, over one and a half, four of his last five, seven of his last ten. Bobby Green, come on. Take the Islam-Makashv fight out. We're not counting that short notice against the lightweight king. Like, come on.

We're taking that out. 14 of us against Islam-Makeneh. It's like the worst idea in history. Yeah, I think who else tried that? Dan Hooker. That worked out very well for him? Bobby Green, and I think it was like a combined fight time of like three minutes and they landed like zero strikes.

14 of his 16, prior to that I've gone to a decision. I think this one goes long. I think it's awesome. and I would say that, People's main event, People's main event, Demir's Magula of Armandsariki and Hardcore's main event?

Oh, yeah. I think this is very, very clearly that. All right. Let's keep it moving. The last fight on the main card. It is a middle-way bout. Cody Brundage taking on Mekul Oleg Seych. Right now, Oleg Sechek,

coming in as a fairly big favorite, minus 275, over under is set at 1.5 minus 1.15 each way. Last time out, smiling Sam Alvey, I mean, Oleg Seychek just said, screw it, dude. Like, you're going down. And like, you're going to kitchen sink fighter. You're going down fast because I'm just going to throw bombs until you are flat on the canvas. And that's exactly what he did. Four of his five UFC wins are by knockout.

And that's pretty much what I thought here, taking this bet. Cody Brundage, I feel is past the victory. He's wrestling. I feel like Oleg Sechukes just needs to come in to say, I don't care about your wrestling. You're going to eat these shots until you go down. So I took Oleg Seychek inside the distance at minus 125. I think he is the better striker here.

I know we saw Brundage get the knockout over Treson Gore, but I still rate Oleg Seychicchak higher than him in the striking department. And I think he's just going to throw a while until he finds the bud. I pretty much agree with you, but I took a different tact on this. So I went for the under one and a half, minus 115. You know, if you go, look at the stats, average fight time on both these guys. Olegsajic, seven minutes, brundage, six minutes, 14 seconds. Sounds like less than seven and a half to me.

Both of those are less than seven and a half. McKill-Michael Olegsajic, that man, Gitchie St. Fighter, he's going to come, he's going to chuck it all, right from the get-go, get-or-get-got. Let's see what happens. Yeah. Yeah, if Brundage just goes full wrestle action, maybe tough, but again, usually gets him out of there pretty early

or himself gets dusted. So give me the under one and a half. Let's have a little fun. I don't mind that. I don't mind that one bit. Let's do it. Let's have a little bit of fun. So, yeah, I'll be riding with Olexeychik inside the distance.

You will be riding the under one and a half. So look, a little first round knockout for Olegsajic. Everybody cashes, everybody's happy. Boom. I mean, we're mapping it out here, a path to profits for ourselves. All right, that is the main card. Let's move on to the prelims. It is Cheyenne Velisimis taking on Corey McKenna.

Right now you can get Vylusmus. 4 minus 190 McKenna coming back at plus 160 a fight goes to a decision minus 280 fight does not go plus 220

I don't have a ton to say on this fight feel like Cheyenne's going to win feel like the line is a little bit wide like minus 200 stuff to bed in

a maybe closely contested strawweight bout what I did do and it really does nothing to help you or anyone listening to this podcast but bet on line in Bovada

like mispriced the over two and a half at minus 185 and minus 190 so I bet on both of those I do think this fight goes long That is not the number That is not the number. I like, yeah, so like what they did is like they had the fight doesn't go

at like minus 275 like I don't know if they were like inversing it but I was like this is this math doesn't make any sense here so yeah I took both of those on on both those separate books just in case if they tried to cancel them out, which so far they have not. Yeah, it really does nothing for anyone here.

I acknowledge that. But the over one and a half is another potential parlay piece, which obviously will get to that at the end of the show. But I mean, the list of it. I feel like a very strong. I mean, eight of her nine. I've gone over the two and a half. McKenna, three of four UFC fights over the two and a half.

It feels like a very much. This makes more sense to me because I was, when I saw on the sheet, you know, we're talking about this when I was like, I have no idea what you've bet here. Yeah. Over two and a half is like minus 400 or something right now. That doesn't even seem worth it at that. Yeah, this was one of those like I didn't have that much money in my account. I was like, I needed to deposit more for this.

Like this is a, this is definitely a missed price line right here. So let's not tell them about it. Let's not get them to acknowledge it. Don't need to tell anybody. They don't need to avoid the bet for me. So hopefully that keeps on riding. I think it goes along. Should be an all right fight.

Kind of interesting with how many options they had that they made this the featured prelim, but it is what it is. Disrespectful to the man we're about to talk about next. Let's talk about him. It is a welterweight about Jake Matthews taking on Matt Semelsberger. Right now you can get Jake Matthews for the lovely price of minus 255. Semmelsberger coming back at plus 250. So I don't know what you're about to say about this.

But I was on Jake Matthews against Andre Fialo at UFC 275 back in June. And like, if you want to go and look up flow state in the dictionary, the definition will be a picture of Jake Matthews fighting Andre Fialo because the way that that man looked in the confidence that he fought with until he knocked Fialo out, it was simply a thing of beauty and cashing him as a dog ticket, as many people did, just made it all the sweeter. And I needed that again.

I couldn't go against the darling Jake. So I bet Jake Matthews. 1,000% in agreement with you. I mean, it was like a thing of beauty the way this guy did. And then when he gets the knockout, he does the shrug.

It was just like the guy was just working that night. So I am incredibly high on Jake Matthews. Because he, I mean, he came into the UFC what feels like a decade ago, because it almost was. He joined in 2014. He is 28 right now. That's disgusting. He is still so young, and he came in and showed a lot of promise,

but he had some setbacks, some tough losses, and been a little bit in the middle. But I think we finally have started to see him. And he said it himself, like he is finally realizing his potential. I think that the Fialho, fight was the first one. I am a little bit surprised that he's getting Simul's Burger right now. I don't know if that was, I didn't look into this, if that was like the original plan,

considering Simul's burgers coming off that L against Alex Marono. It was on Shark Week, and he was fighting Great White, so like it's kind of understanding. Yeah, maybe you just don't count that against him at all. But for reference, I have Jake Matthews in my top 10 at Walter right now. Wow. Because I think that he is so good, and he is going to prove it out over the coming months and years. So, yeah, you get him at a price like this. I have him as one half of a two-leg parlay.

And then I also took Matthews by decision at plus 150. I don't feel all the way confident in that just because he is looking so good. But Simulzberger is a tough dude, you know, for he, he's been, finished twice in his career. But, you know, he went the distance to Chaos Williams. That man knows how to hurt people. Morono, obviously, a very good fighter. Those two lost, those two finished losses came several years back before he was in, like,

the real world. So I took Matthews by decision at plus 150. Don't feel like super confident in it, though, but I do have Matthews in a parlay. One last thing I do have to say is Simmelzberger, UFC competition. His wins, their combined UFC record, is third. three and nine. Jake Matthews. Jake Matthews has 11 UFC wins.

This would be far and away, Semmelsberger's best one of his career. I mean, when you talk about Matthew Semelzberger, one of his opponents is Martinez. Now that was just one of the Diaz boys, like he just absolutely fed to the wolves. Like that just never needed to happen.

And Jason Witt, chin is just completely gone and he's now out of the promotion. So I think this is the toughest test. It would be his biggest win, but I think Jake Matthews, keeps right on rolling and picks up the dub here. Love it.

All right. Let's keep it moving. To a middleweight bout, it is Julian Marquez taking on Duran win. Right now you can get Julian Marquez for minus 170. Duran win coming back at plus 145 over under is set at two and a half under minus 148 over plus 116. So as long as Duran win continues to fight at middleweight. wait, I will continue to bet against him. I just think he's too...

Very reasonable approach. I just think he's too undersized. It's paid off a lot lately. I get that he's live. If he can get the takedowns and just chain wrestle, then he can obviously get this done. Julian Marquez doesn't have the greatest takedown defense in the world. But like eight inch height disadvantage,

the size discrepancy is just massive. I know it's only three inches or reach, but like when you're fighting someone, one that's eight inches taller than you, you are now punching at an angle. So like the reach disadvantage comes into play even more. Marquez. Also your power gets taken out when you're punching up.

Yes, that's also a fact. I mean, just go back and watch the Phil Haas fight last time out. Like maybe Julian Marquez is not as good as Phil Haas, even though he beat him on the Dana White Contender Series, finished him on the Dana White Contender Series. Even if you don't think that, like Duranwin got brutalized in that fight. Like it was very bad. Marquez, all four of his wins in the UFC and Dana White Contender Series are by finish.

And if it does go to the ground, it could spell complete over like it's done for Marquez and he's just going to have to sit there the rest of the round. But the dude is also live for a submission. Like he's got three subs, 11 attempts over his UFC career. I like Julian Marquez. Like I'm just playing the numbers, the numbers being 6-2 versus. versus five, six, and like a rightful middleweight as someone, as opposed to someone is undersized. Listen, Marquez might fumble the bag, like he fumbled Miley Cyrus, but I'm going

to ride with him, man. I'm not. He fumbles many bags. He feels like an inconsistent fighter, even though we have a pretty short career span with him. And we talk about it a lot, you know. This is wishcasting. This is a little bit of projection.

this is hopes and dreams. Project, brother. Duran win, you know, one and three in his last four, he's guys back against the wall. You know, he needs a dub here, or he is at very serious risk of walking papers. And he does, you know, this guy's a credentialed wrestler.

And Julian Marquez, not the best wrestler. If Duran Winn can't go to his wrestling and get it going here, then he needs to be cut. And I think that that is going to be a huge part. of his game plan and you know low man wins you say that julia marquez is is eight inches taller than him i say that just gives duran win a much better opportunity to get in on the hips buddy so i'm taking the underdog shot on duron win uh because you know plus one 45 and marquez has shown marquez got taken

down like a hundred times by mackie patolo and darren stewart so i feel like duran win can get it going, and Alessio DeKirico even took him down a bunch. Duran win is a much better wrestle than any of those men. And I think he is going to, I think he's coming in here to protect his job with a dub. So we're going to be getting a whole lot of wrestling win. And he's going to edge out a not interesting, honestly, maybe the worst fight of the whole night will be this one if it goes the way that I'm hoping it does. but taking Duran 1 at plus money because I didn't see

I should look because I'm sure somewhere there's Duran win by decision. There has to be and that is what you have to bet if you're betting on a plus 375 looks like or well there's some dispute different places have a pretty widespread on win by decision. Draft Kings doesn't have it up yet

but I will probably end up taking a shot on that as well just because one that's the number that you can really start talking about there if you're getting up to plus 300 because I feel like that is... I see 375 at bet at a bet 365 and then plus 300 at like five times, some like that looks like it.

So, Draft King should have it shortly at some point today, but that's what I'd be playing if I was playing Duran win. For sure. Duran win is not going to finish, Julia Marquez. So that is probably a much better bet. So when that comes up, you know,

if you agree with me, take a hop on the ride. All right. I like that we have a little disqualification. ascension there. It's going to go one or two ways. And I actually am with you. If the wrestling's working, the Ron Wynne should get this done. If it is not, the fight will likely be over.

We're going to know in like the first minute. Yeah. If Doron wins shoots and gets stuffed, I'm going to feel real bad instantaneously. He needs to shoot and he needs to shoot fast. Any engagement that he takes on the feet will not be good for him. All right, let's keep it rolling. It is a bansomweight bout. Saeed Narmaghamedov taking on Saeed Yukov.

Saeedo Kubh Krakhanov Well done, because I wasn't even going to try Yeah, this guy is actually a UFC better up until You know, these bands came in He used to drop some pretty crazy tickets I actually think I've featured him on the show as a big hitter Yeah, he loves betting, but right now, man, pickums Minus 110, minus 110,

Fight goes to a decision, minus 150, fight does not go plus 120. I have nothing on this fight. Like, you talk about, the diehard's main event, the people's main event. I feel like this is the diehard's main event part two. Like this is a should be a great fight between two highly skilled guys. Yeah, certainly have the prelims. I think people are stoked on this one.

I'm betting on Saeed. Okay. Betting on Saeed Narragamatov. All right. I can say his name. So that's a strong start already. Two real reasons on this. one, I just like

Sayyed Yermagamatov. I think he's been a quality fighter. I mean, the only recent loss is Houni Barcelos, who is, can be a frustrating fighter, certainly, because I think he hasn't delivered as much as the potential that he has, but

I like Saeed. How often are you going to get a Nirmagamatov at minus 110 these days? Unheard of. Also, I don't know if you know this, but old Kakramanov already lost to a Nirmagamatov. Umar,

Nermagamatov defeated him in the PFL a few years back, so they know how to get it done. The Nirmagometovs, they're out here, and I'm getting him in even money. I'm not going to pretend like I did a ton of tape study on this, but I was like, I like Saeed.

I enjoy watching him fist fight. I think he's going to stuff the takedowns. I think he's going to outstrike the man, and that's what we're going to get going here. Love it. I love it. Yeah, I mean, I think it's going to be a great fight.

I can't speak confidently on who's going to win, but I'll be rooting for you because I do, I do have Saeed and a parlay that we can get into at the end of this. Oh, I love, oh, you have Saeed. Yeah, I think you know where I'm going. Yeah, this one is just, I don't know, Nomegamedov is not the traditional, I'm going to grapple the hell out of you, Nomegamedov,

but he trains with a lot of people that can do that. He is very high finishing upside. The dude can finish people for sure. Yeah, he's quite good at defending takedowns, and I think that he is the better striker here. So give me him at basically even money. You got to pick him odds. Sounds fun.

I'll do it. Let's run. Sounds fun to me, man. Let's keep it rolling, though. Next up, a welterweight bout. Brian Battle taking on Renot. Fuck Rettonov. And what is it at?

What is the line at? Minus 145. Fuck Reddenov. Brian Battle coming back at plus 125. The over under is set at two and a half over minus 160 under. plus 130. I was just looking to jump into a Brian battle coming in on short notice.

He has looked good of late. Beautiful knockout of Takashi Shado the last time out. Got taken down twice against Treshaun Gore and when the takedowns happened, they came with relative ease. Got taken down twice against Gilbert Urbina. Renat is non-stop. Dude has had a full camp.

Last time out against Andre, Michelitis, five takedowns, 13 minutes of control time. and Michaelitis is a wrestler himself in that aspect. Like he's active once he gets on top. I think he's just going to chain wrestle and just constantly be grinding out Brian Battle and I think he's going to win a decision.

I took him as soon as he opened at minus 150 and then it dropped to minus 105. I was like, damn. I really hope this doesn't get to plus money because I'm sitting on a minus 150. It has come back to around the area that I took it at, so I feel a little bit better. But I thought it was going to go the other way.

I thought he was going to be closing around like a minus 200. I have nothing to say on this fight. So I accept everything you said is the absolute gospel truth. Gospel. And I will now be betting all of my money to tail you. Sweet. That sounds good to me. Pull out a loan and let's move on with it.

Well, I can't. I've already bet all of my money on Glover to Shera. Ooh, what's that line at now? I took Glover at minus 10. It has already dropped to plus 110. But the plus 130 number, when that came out, I was like, okay, well, time to refinance the mortgage here because I need to pull out some dollars to bet on Old Glover. Yeah, I'm just going to be completely blunt.

I'm going to try to bet on as many Brazilians as I can that night. I have already also placed a wager on Davis and Foll. Strategy, cotton. Yeah, bold strategy there, but I will be, Abrigato, as they say, I'll be riding with the Brazilian. Hopefully everyone will be giving me, be giving. me paraben's come that Monday following. And your Portuguese

is spot on. Sorry, I speak a little bit more French than I do. Francaise, as they say, rather than the Portuguese. All right, let's move on because we do have something to talk about. Do we even have to talk about it?

I don't know if you guys know this. We got a thing. We like to bet on men's 125ers, and we've got just that another one. They give us two. who follows up a year. I cannot tell you how hyped I am about this. Insert Cully drop, another one.

There it is. DJ Callis, shout out to that, man. Because we do have another one. It is Manel cop taking on David DeVorak. Right now you can get Manel for minus 240. Devorak coming back plus 200, yada, yada, yada, yada. The over under is set at two and a half over minus 145. We're getting plus money, baby, under plus 115. I actually took this as soon as it open, plus 130.

I love these bets because I don't have to do any math, and as soon as it comes out, it's just like, hit, hit, hit, got to take it. Smash that like button. Smash the like button. If you want the stats to back it up, Minot Kopp is a finisher. Back-to-back, first round wins.

Five is his last seven dating back to Risen have gone under the two and a half. He has one single victory by decision out of his 17 wins in his career. So 16 have come by finish. David DeVorek does worry me a little bit because he is pretty tough, but we can at least say 17 of his 24 career fights have not gone to a decision. They have ended early under two and a half, flywood under.

Let's finish the year with 2 and 0 on flywood unders, please. Plus I will also add in DeVorek in the UFC, bit of a decision guy, but prior to that, I mean, he never saw the third round. Like he saw the third round like twice, I think, in his career. A ton of first round finishes. Good solid grappler. Obviously that's not cops, M.O. Cop's trying to knock your head into the third row.

So I do kind of think, like I feel really good about this. If DeVorex getting this game going, he's going to be trying to hustle cop on the floor, find the submission, find the finish. And if he's not, he's a sit and duck. Cop's going to nuke him. So I love the under here. I love the under outside of the fact. that it's a flyweight under. When you add in that it's a flyweight under,

bet the house, bet the children, bet your firstborn, it's fine, it never lets you down. Never lets me down. It really truly hasn't. I can't wait to tally up

the final record for flywood unders at the end of the year. It's going to be like 27 and one. Yeah, it's going to be glorious. And let's finish this off, dude. When we say pacing was nice,

the pacing was nice this week. Let's get in this week. To the final fight. Actually, it's the first fight of the evening. It is Sergei Morozov taking on Journey Newson. Morozov, another Kazakhstan guy. Got to love to see that light blue flag right there.

Right now, you can get Morozov for minus 280. Neuson coming back at plus 235. Don't have a ton to say on this one. Took this one earlier this week. I think Morozov is just a level above Journey News. On the feet in the grappling exchanges. It's bold. It's bold.

hitting takedowns. I think he's just going to 30, 27 them. So, yeah, I played him straight at minus to 25. And I also threw him in a little parlay with Amir al-Bazi that I mentioned earlier. It's bold. I've got a couple of facts to note here. The first, if you look at old Journey Newsom's Wikipedia page, you'll notice that he does not have a single win over a fighter with a Wikipedia page.

Nice. That's hard and fast stats. That's data. That's a concrete data place that you have to back. They call it wiki capping. I love it. It's my favorite way to cap. The second, I don't know if you know this, but his name is Journey, which is pretty close to Journeyman.

Wow. I'm not trying to bet on no Journeyman with my hard-earned American knowledge. And the third, concrete data point, a person who works in amafide.com great website reached out to me prior to the filming of this episode and was like, I hope. I won't say who it was. Maybe you can figure it out. I said, I hope you guys are betting on Sergey Marzoff because Jerry Newsom is terrible. And Sergey Morozov should be like a minus 600 favorite.

I don't really understand where this line is that. And he's going to kill that man. And so who am I to argue with my esteemed colleagues at M.AFindcom great website? So I am also on Sergey Morozov. I've taken him. I've parlayed him up with Jake Matthew. Matthews for minus 115, just a little two-leggar. Two legs I feel quite strong about and you're getting minus 115 odds.

Seems like a good play for me. I love it. I love it. Yeah, this is one of the ones that jumped out to me. That and I think it was Jake Matthews, where the two that I played very early on and the Renat one. But I got poor line movement on that one. But that is what it is.

I forgot to mention this because this was a really good line that I just want to shout out to the unnamed. panelists from MMIFind.com. One guy's, his entire breakdown of the fight, one guy's name ends in of the other, the other sounds like pitchfork's 2009 breakthrough artist of the year. Wow. And I don't know.

Spot the lie is all I'm saying there. I can't find one. I cannot find one. So Sergei Morozov is the play for us. Do with that information, what you will, all those concrete facts, all that evidence. A lot of data points. I do have one last thing to get into. And it's my over one and a half parlorite.

So here were the four fights that I was thinking. Dober green. You don't want to do four. You're just looking for a three-leggar? I'm nervous to do four. Maybe I do a round-robin of the four. Oh, God, don't do that. I know.

I hate round-robin's, and there's no real way to, like, give them out and, like, know how much profit you actually get. Like, they're just such a dangerous game. Every time I've round-robin, it has cost me a substantial amount of money. This probably would, too. So, dober green, over one and a half. I love that. I love that so much.

That is, that's the foundation of this parlay, 1,000%. Sarukian is Magulov over one and a half. I also love that. That is a sturdy base that we are building a parlay upon. Cheyenne Velismus, Corey McKenna over one and a half. That is a little shakier. If only, I would think it pays, but McKenna is like 23. Volismus is like 27.

Okay. Fighters that young can make pretty big jumps. Then let me give you one last one. Sean Strickland, Jared, Kennedy, over one and a half. Dangerous for a different reason in that Canonnierer could,

I don't know, Strickland just does the Pereira thing. Just gets his head blow up. I know. I know. I love the first two. Those are rock solid, undeniably good foundation pieces.

If I'm picking one of those other two, I think Kenanier, Strickland feels maybe the thing I'd be more confident in but who Dober Green and Sarukin is Magula both over one and a half

I feel phenomenal about those That pays at minus 168 I feel great about those I don't feel terrible about the other ones I add Strickland Canaanier and it gets to minus 106 Oh, if it's not even getting you to plus number,

then I'm not sure that I feel good about that. All right. If instead you just add the McKinna Velismus, what's it get you to? There's no way it's going to get me to plus money. I can't possibly, right? No. I don't know what that number is.

That gets me to minus 113. You know, I think the reasonable outcome here is to just parlay all four of them together. What does the four get us? That's going to be plus for sure. Plus 180. Plus 130. Only 130?

I can't do it plus one 30. Yeah, I wouldn't do it for 130. Honestly, the real actual answer is probably just parlay the two and take minus 160. I think that's not terrible. Minus 168, I can eat that. You know what? And that's what we're going to do.

You know what, buddy? I'm going to join you in that. That seems like, let's have a little bit of group, group think here. Let's go. I will put down What's that get us to minus 160? Minus 168. That's fine.

51 Yunski. That bet is in. Love it. I love the bet. I love what we've just done. Community, friendship, just everything that's good in the world for the final UFC card of the year.

Final UFC card of the year. We will be back the first week of the year with a Futures show. Absolutely cannot wait for that. What would that be? January 4th?

Yeah, I think that's right. Because then on the 11th, we'll have to break down that first UFC card of the year. Enjoy the break, everyone. Enjoy the break. We only get these breaks so often. Spend some time with family. Spend some time with friends. Enjoy the holidays if you celebrate.

Thank you for listening if you've listened at all this year. I mean, right now, if you're listening, then that means you've listened at some point. Hopefully we have helped in, at some point, you have won a bet, and you've looked back and been like, shout out to no bets, bard. I appreciate that. I can't imagine if you've ridden Flywood Unders, you haven't been like, shout out to No Bet's Bart. I appreciate that. There's just no way. I'd like to say you're welcome for all the winning plays.

Not our fault for any of the losing ones. You're entirely to blame. but yeah we is it been a great year had a ton of fun i hope that we have given you some enjoyment and uh i'm really excited about futures the futures pod is just going to be the best i really hope we've given you some enjoyment because uh i would rather give you enjoyment than winners i'd love to give you both i hope we've accomplished that but uh yeah i'm not a professional gambler i never will be i never aspire to be uh all i want to do is profit have some fun watch some fights and have some fun talking about said fights.

So I hope we have delivered that for you. You have better ambitions. All I want to do is do ridiculous bets and hopefully come out close to Ethan. Oh my God. Speaking of, as we're getting all sappy here, ridiculous bets. A man on Twitter, I'm sorry I don't have it right here. He, you know, responded to a tweet from Eric Nixit, the extreme Cotor coach, the head coach. They have six fighters on this card, and you bet your sweet ass.

I'm going to be betting on all of them there. Oh, oh, yeah, the extreme Couture parlay. The XCP is, as the kids are saying on the street right now. I love the gimmick, except for I don't like some. I'm not a huge on the Sean Strickland part of the bet. Yeah, yeah, yeah, but that's, I'm just going to have to sacrifice for that. Also, that man's name is Mitch. Mitch since forever.

Shout out to Mitch since forever. Manel Cop. Sayyed Nurmagamato, Julian Orosa, Cheyenne Velismissmiss, Amir Al-Bazi, Sean Strickland, almost a certifiable loser. Like, there's almost no way this hits, but it pays out at plus 1424. It's a big number. Putting small, small amount of money on that. 0.15 units, very small.

Less than $10. Throw a 10-down and see what happens. Yeah, I actually did less than $10. That's how little I'm throwing on it. But hopefully that hits. That is my last play. I will run through my plays here. They are in a little bit of a wacky order,

but it is Sean Strickland. Sean Strickland decision or Jared Canaanier knockout minus 165. Demir is Magulov plus 160. Jake Matthews minus 205. We're not. Fuck. Reddinov minus 150. Julian Marquez minus 155. Sergei Morizov minus 225.

Arosa minus 155. Arosa, minus 155. Weird little line there, but still. Elismiss McCenna over 2.5, minus 185, and minus 190. Is Magulov-Saurucan over 2.5, minus 185. Cape Dvorak under 2.5 plus 130. Miko Olexeychek, inside the distance, minus 125. Al-Bazi Costa, under 2.5, minus 142.

Morozov and Al-Bazi Parleid minus 132. Dober Green over 1.5. Surukian is Magulov over 1.5, minus 168. and then the aforementioned Extreme Cotour Parlay plus 1424. And I, for the final time this year. Final time in 2022. Ooh, Jared Kennedy by KOTKO plus 275. Armistruiking by Decision plus 130.

I'm starting to realize I have a lot of prop bets on this car. I have way too many overs. I started the show with how much I fucking hate overs. And here I am with like four overs and an overparlay. Albaozica, under 1.5 at plus 140. King Bobby Green plus 130. Brundage, Oleg Sejerk, under 1.5, minus 115. Jake Matthews, by decision, plus 150.

Duran win by decision plus 325. Sayy Narmergometov minus 110. Manel Kopp, David Vorek, under 2.5, plus 115. And then I've got the two parlays. Jake Matthews and Sergey Morozov pays out of minus 115. And Armin Sarukian, DeMene. Miris Isma Gula over one and a half. Dober Green, over one and a half pays out minus 168.

And that's it. That's a wrap. That is a wrap. Tie a bow around it. I'll probably have some plays for the Rise and Bellator if we get good lines on them. I'll obviously, you know, tweet those out. But for the UFC, this is it, man. Put a bow on it.

Hell of a year, man. And the best part is, 2023, just around the corner of the 30-year anniversary of the UFC. the storylines I can promise you will be crazy and I cannot wait for it. January 4th, we're back. Futures podcast. I only ended up hitting one this year. Somehow I got bad beated out of the rest of them.

Hopefully we can find some more success next year. Until then, enjoy the holidays. Enjoy your friends. Enjoy your family. Enjoy the break. There's too many UFC events. Enjoy the break for God's sakes. Don't tweet about how much you can't wait for it to come back.

Recharge the batteries for a big 2023. There will be more UFC events. There will be too many UFC events in 2023. Enjoy the break. Until then, thank you so much for listening. Cannot tell you how much we appreciate it. See you in 2020. Love you guys.

Listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.