MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Should You Fade Mackenzie Dern At UFC Vegas 60? A Heated Debate

Episode Date: September 28, 2022

It's a busy week in the world of MMA with the UFC returning for UFC Vegas 61 and Bellator putting out one of its better efforts of late with Bellator 286, and so the No Bets Barred boys are back to cover all of your gambling needs. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew get into a contentious discussion surrounding the UFC main event fight between Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan before diving into their full slate of bets which includes wagers on every single fight on the card, plus a chunk of Bellator action as well. And as an added bonus, Conner and Jed get derailed talking about their own experiences getting into fights on the mean streets of Athens, GA. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster, The Downloaded.

It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. And on, y'all, we are back. It is another episode of No Bet's Bar this time for UFC Apex 61, Mackenzie Dern versus Jan Zhao Nan. last week no UFC but we had Bellator

Belator is is gonna Belator that's pretty much all I can say Jed how we doing? Doing great I did not join you in the Bellator last week but uh Did you take this one and a half in the YoL fight?

No I didn't I honestly just I just forgot I should have You're a smart man I should have but I just forgot I was sitting there Friday I was sitting there Friday afternoon

I almost took it goes to a decision which would have been heartbreaking I was seeing there Friday afternoon and I was like, why do I do this to myself? I don't want to watch this right now. I don't want to have bets on this. And sure enough, a giant favorite. We said it on the podcast, was going to shit in my day. And that's what they did, Carl Albrexson and Mads Burnell.

I did hit one parlay, though. I love that you hit the one parlay. Yeah, I totally had the intention of putting down Bellator bets and then time got away from me because it was Bell. And it was like the early, the Dublin, because Bellator's was middle of the day or whatever, I was just like, oh, crap, these are on right now. And lines are already closed down because I did not watch any of that card except for the co-main and main event of it. But, you know, it was Bellator.

So what were you? You knew going in. You said, I'm going to lose. And I'm going to do it again this week. That's the worst part. I'm doing it a lot this week. It's been five days and my heart is already repaired and I'm ready to get busted on a giant favorite again. Can we talk about Yel O'O. Romero?

Y'O. Romero, round three, Romero is a mythical fighter. He's what Jordan, what people want in Charles Jordan to me. Yeah. He's been around three Romero forever, though. Dude. Four stray wins, round three. Eight of his last 11 have come in round three. Yeah.

It's like actually a thing with him. And my theory is that he knows he doesn't have the gas tank to do anything. So he just kind of hangs out for for 10 minutes. And then he was like, oh, well, he is literally the definition of, well, I only have five minutes left, better let it all go right now. And then he does. And it's awesome. I can't lie. I love watching him fight.

I mean, it's just the way he just stands there and just plods. Like he just... It's the best. He's not rhythm stepping. He's not jumping around. Every once in a while, you'll see him bounce a little bit. But just like the amount that he just stood right in front of Melvin Manhofe, a dangerous striker, and just stood there flat-footed.

Just, yeah, I love watching him, dude. He's fun to watch. I'll maintain until the day that I die that he beat Israel-A-Sanja in their fight. Maybe not in like the unified rules scoring, but in the- rules that count. In the playgrounds rules, one dude was clearly terrified of engaging with the other. the other dude stood there and did a little shuffle step and was like, hey, come, come hit me. And then one dude just lightly tapped him and stayed away.

Well, it is the unified rules that get you the belt. And that's what Israel Adasania still maintained. He should have beat Robert Whitaker by the unified rules. And that didn't get him the belt. This man has been screwed time and time again. Playground rules, that's your middleweight champ though, right there. I would love to see you all Romero make a real run at the Bellator belt. that would be fantastic.

I'm praying that we see him get a strap on him. So that was Bellator. Peter Coily's walkout was cool. That's about all I have to say about that. We're on. Oh, yeah, that main event does not merit discussion. No. We're on to UFC Apex 61.

We're on to Bellator 286. I mean, there's one championship. There's LFA. You name it. We got it this weekend. But we're not here for all that. We're here to break down this UFC Apex 61 card. Because we're going to talk about every fight, which is insane.

but I just, I realized that this morning when I was looking over it and I was like, oh yeah, you and I have a couple of all on the prelim stuff. We've got alternating bets there. I don't have on a couple of main card fights, so we might want to skip them because I know we're trying to keep it tight this week. Yeah, we'll break the fourth wall. So I'm in the podcast studios here in Manhattan. And I typically reserve the space completely blanked this week was like,

on the way in on the train this morning. I was like, ah, it's not that big of a deal. I've never seen anyone book this before. Of course, this morning I check it. Someone booked it for 9.30.

It's 8.35. We got a little bit of time. We got a solid 50 minutes. We're not going to rush through this, but we definitely got to keep it tight. We got us down our piece and cute. But I just, I have very little to say about John Castaneda,

Daniel Santos. I don't know if you do or not. I actually do have a little bit to say about that. Oh, well, then that's great. You know what? Let's just hop into the card because we got a lot of fights to talk about. Let's just let it rip. Let's let it rip.

Let's start with the main event. It is McKenzie Dern taking on Yan, Jan Jan. McKenzie Dern coming in at minus 225, Janne, coming back at plus 190. Over under is set at three and a half over minus 115 under minus 115 as well. I was hoping this would be flyweight. I mean, obviously it was never going to be flyweight, but it's hoping to be flyweight so we could take a flyweight. I mean, it still could be, buddy. Like, that we hadn't had.

way in day yet. So, sick. Because then I'd have to take the under. It's not like McKinsey Dern is the best at making weight. So it can still be a catch weight or a fly weight, like a spiritual fly weight, even if it's not technically one. Yeah.

Another flyweight under hitting on Dana White Contender series last night. I'm getting so many messages because I don't follow. I'll also break the fourth wall. I rarely, if ever watched the contender series, just because I spend the rest of my week doing fight-related stuff. It's just not that important to me. Sorry, fans. I get so many messages because they have been doing

apparently gangbusters on Contender Series as well. Just they don't miss. They do not miss. Yeah, I need to go back and pull the stat. I'm actually curious between Contender Series and UFC win the last time a flyweight, a male flyweight fight went the distance. I think it's been a minute.

Like, I seriously think it's been a minute. months because at least June rule number one rule number one in the rule book is flyweight unders are locks never miss it's got it's got to be at least June um I mean I started up on this in in May so it has to have been a minute um all right you got to play on this fight main event I have two plays on this fight me too oh are we I assume we're in the same neighborhood here I am not backing the underdog are you yes you're backing the dog Yes. Wow.

Okay. So is this just strictly a fade McKenzie Dern? No. I mean, it's not fading her. I mean, she is not a good striker at all going up against a very competent striker in Yan Jahn. I just, I, Jan Jan Niz. And has never impressed me. McKenzie Dern has?

She gets a submission. That's how she wins. Yes, that's like, here's, I'm going to read verbatim what I. Let me, I'd love to hear. Rote here. McKinsey Dern is it as good as people believe she is. No. But she still has one A plus plus skill.

Yeah, she does have that. At least one more than Jan Jiaona has. Like, I don't, I'm willing to believe that this is a bad bet just from the odds perspective of it because Dern, that's the thing, though. I thought Dern would be more juiced. I thought Dern would be in the minus 300 range because of the name, et cetera. She's only minus 225 right now on Draft Kings. And it won't totally shock me if she loses because I agree she's certainly not as good as other people believe.

I just, I have limited to no real belief in Janjanaan. You thought that McKinsey Dern was going to be minus 300? Yeah. And you watched the Marina Rodriguez Janjanaan fight. And you watch the McKenzie Dern Marina Rodriguez fight. Yeah, McKenzie Dern Tisha Torres fight.

Yeah, those styles make fights, you know, like, I agree. Dern could not get Marina Rodriguez to the ground, and so she got teed off on.

Teet off on for four rounds. Also, Marine Hadriguez is really good. Janjana is, I'm not arguing the striking thing whatsoever. Clearly, Janjana,

beat Marina Rodriguez. I mean, you can't. I don't think I agree with that case, but I guess you can't make that case. Marina Rodriguez went off in the third round. She clearly won that round. Janjana clearly won round one. It came down to a razor thin round two.

It was a split decision. Yeah. I mean, there are a lot of bad split decisions. I thought Rodriguez won the second round and the third round. I mean, very clearly. I thought she won the third round. I thought she won the second round competently. I'm just not, like I said, man, I'm just never been in on the Janjaunan thing.

Maybe it's like that she was getting all gassed up and then Carlos Sparza, who I also, I know she's the champion. We could talk about that. The strawweight champion. She sure is by all the rights of God in Maine. I don't, I think that while she may be the champion, she's like the sixth best weight in the world. So to see Jan Chanan just crumble under her and like, I don't know. I kind of, I just feel like Carly is a better wrestler than Dern. And I know you're a stack guy.

I mean, of course. She's a better wrestler than Dern. But that's thing, I know you're a stack guy and I know that the stats for Dern as far as takedowns, they're bad. Awful. But that's because she doesn't actually shoot takedowns. And like the way that they score takedowns, like if you go and look at Dern's fights, she gets the fight to the floor, guard pulls, transitions, like trips and stuff.

But like against Tisha Tora, she has three sub attempts. She had zero takedowns credited. Like that happens a lot. And it's, I think she's not like, it's not that she is a bad wrestler. She just rarely ever tries to actually do it. No, she's not a great wrestler, dude. I mean, she's not a great wrestler, but also no one in the decision is. You don't have 9% takedown accuracy and be like, I just never shoot for takedowns.

That's why it's at 9%. Like, you're just not good at getting takedowns. And she just doesn't shoot that often, though. Like, she gets tie-ups and pulls down. But when she does shoot, she's hitting at less than a 10% rate. Sure. Like, I'm not saying she's... She tried over and over in that Marina Rodriguez fight.

Yeah, Marina Rodriguez is really good at defending takedowns. I love the respect for Marina because I love Marina-Hodriguez. Maria-Rodriguez is great. She might actually be like, if she got to fight for the belt, she would win the bell. She's never going to because nobody cares. No, I think she'll get a shot if she keeps a shot. if she keeps winning? That's the thing.

If she keeps winning, which is stupid, she should be next in line, but because of she has the least, like, star power of anyone at the top. It's got to be Zhang, right? I mean, that's what's going to happen, but I think Marina Rodriguez deserves it more, frankly.

You think so? Razor thin with Rosnamayunis? I mean, she's winning the games. Like, it's just about the dubs. And I, I know that former champion, just blew the doors off of Yane and J-Chic. Like, there are a lot of things.

Janjan, is just, she's never getting a title fight. I want to get us back to where we need to be because we're trying to keep this tight and we're already getting off the rules. I love how Rodriguez gets a splitty over Janjanan and she deserves a title shot,

but you have zero respect for Janjana. Well, it doesn't matter that she got a splitie. She won the fight and she's won like, how many in a row is she on right now? Quite a few. K.O. Amanda Hevas.

Yeah. That's her. Her last loss was a B.S. You don't have to sell me on Marina Rodriguez. I'm sitting on a loser ticket for Marina Rodriguez-traway champion by end of 2022. I need no selling on my girl, Marina. You should be winning that ticket, but you're not going to. Back to the topic at hand.

Yes. I don't, like I say, this is not me thinking that McKinsey Darry is great. I just never been sold on Janjohn-on. And if this fight goes to the floor, and I think it can go to the floor, McKinsey Dern owns that space. And so I'm taking it. I am also, my second bet on this is I'm taking the under because I think it goes to the floor and I think McKinsey Durn taps her. But Dern by submission is like minus 110 or minus 120.

And that doesn't feel like good odds when you can just take the under two and a half at plus 105, which feels the same if not like much, much better. So those are my two plays. But I love that we have such aggressive dissension right here off. the top. I mean, I'll make another argument for you on McKenzie Dern is that more than likely, if Jan Jan Nguyen does survive, she will be in tricky spots at multiple times in this fight. Marina Rodriguez was in a super dicey position in the second round. DeC Torres, second round as well, dicey positions. That's when McKinsey Dern got all her submission attempts. It was in that second round. I think Jaunan is going to have to navigate some dicey waters in this situation. But the thing is,

in my opinion, if she navigates those waters and this stays standing for 20 minutes of the 25 minutes, she's just going to style on McKenzie Dern striking. Like, I mean, if you just look at every time that McKenzie Dern has fought a competent striker. I mean, Tichita Tore's, like, you can also make the argument that McKenzie Dern lost against Tisha Torres. I mean, you can make a lot of arguments. You don't think so. You don't think rounds one in three, Tishu Torres got. I haven't rewatch that fight.

I think I scored it for Dern at the time. Oh, man. Maybe I'm just biased because I took McKenzie Dern and I also took Tisha Torres, and I was pretty convinced that Tia Torres won. Anyway. My last point on this fight, it goes back to my first point,

which is Dern has an A plus plus skill. More to that, though. Dern, even if Yon keeps this fight standing for big portions of it or whatever, She is just not a threatening striker. This woman doesn't have finishes. Like she is not going to, yeah, she's just not going to, which means Dern is going to have the home run shot of a submission at all points in time for 25 minutes.

And outside of just this fight, but holistically, in matchups like this, I think there's another one down here a little later on where I feel similarly, where it's just like, you got to be able, there is a serious detriment to not being a finisher. And it is that, especially in 25 minute fights, you're going to leave your opponent hanging around. And even if they are not as good a fighter, if they've got the A plus plus skill, they always have a real, real shot. And if you're going to let them hang for 25, it's why I don't like when Israel Addisina just kind of coasts over opponents. because yes, you are winning in a quote unquote safe manner or whatever and staying out of danger. You're also giving really dangerous dudes like the upcoming Alex Beheada 25 minutes to find the shot.

Like you should try. It's a weighted game of opportunity cost here. And I just don't, I'm not a big Yao fan. And I think 25 minutes is a lot to say you have to be perfect in this category. And I don't think she can do it. I'm surprised you're not playing by submission. Like, I feel like that's how McKenzie Dern went. But it's minus one, it's minus 110.

I know, but if it was like minus $2.25. Yeah, I just give me, give me the extra because maybe Jan can survive on the ground, but I'm just not willing to prop bet it. I've been getting burned by prop bets a lot lately. I mean, I feel that. I feel that. I feel that. And everything you say, I don't disagree with.

Like, I'm making this argument for Jan Jan N, but it's really just based off of the price tag. What's your second bet? I took her at plus 200, and then because of everything you just said, she can't finish a sandwich. I also took her by decision, a little sprinkle on that as well.

What's that? $3.25. Plus $3.25. I'm surprised that seems like that number should be lower, but okay, that's good juice. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I'm only putting 0.75 units on this altogether. half a unit on her money line and 0.25 on the decision prop.

It's not like I'm dying on this hill. I just feel like sometimes McKenzie Dern gets a little over-respected in the markets. And yeah. Oh, she definitely does. Like, let's be clear. I am for sure. I'm for sure on the idiot side of the bet, but I think it's going to pay off. Yeah, I mean, you could say you're on the idiot side of this bet.

you want. But then if McKenzie Dern, that's another thing. She doesn't even really have to take it to the ground. She'll just climb on top of people. And then I'm like, ah, no, that's it. Yep. Yep. Yep. It's over. There's just going to be one early weird tie-up. And Yon's then just going to suddenly fall to the ground with Dern wrapped around her like an octopus and then it's game over. A little disrespectful here of Jan Jan Nahn, man. I am. I'm going to live in this keg in this corner. her for the rest of my life. It's just, I'm not there.

I wanted to. I tried really hard to be contrarian early in her career. I was like, well, maybe she's actually better than Wiley. You know, like maybe she's the actual Chinese, like budding Chinese superstar

the UFC's looking for because Wiley's unproven and she got obliterated by Rose. And then it was like, actually, no, Wiley Zhang is a super unbelievable athlete. Oh, Now and John-on is fine.

She's probably a plus athlete, but she is not anywhere in the neighborhood of Waii Chang. No, I agree with that. She's a good striker, though. She's a much better striker than McKenzie Dern. Well, yeah, everyone's a better striker than McKenzie Dern. Oh, man, if you can't pull off the one-trick pony, then you're going to lose the fight. That's really my argument for taking this at Juice thoughts. It's a good argument.

I just think that one trick pony is going to do the pony thing. You very well could be right, dude. I mean, like, as much contention as there was on this argument, which I actually love. I love that we were here. I love the disagreement. But, yeah, don't get a twisted people. If McKenzie Dern breaks her arm on Saturday, you will not be coloring me shocked. I am not going to be jaw on the floor.

That's the other thing. I forgot to even mention that where it's like, Dern had the, I don't know if you saw Dern had the interview earlier this week, she was just like, yeah, I'm about to be way meaner in my grappling. I've been like nice. Now I'm just going to break stuff.

Nah, people say stuff all the time before fights. No, break it. Yeah, break it. I mean, she could break it.

I mean, there's an ocean of experience and wealth of knowledge in the grappling game between these two. And McKenzie Dern is on the right side of that ocean. So yeah, there it is.

We're on opposite sides. I love it. Hopefully it'll be a fun fight, or it might just end very quickly. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo? Great idea. Feel the fun with all the latest slots in live casino games and with no wagering requirements. What you win is yours to keep groovy.

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Marshalls. We get the deals. You gift for good stuff. All right, let's get to the co-main event. It's a welterweight bout. Randy Brown going up against Francisco. Trinaldo. Right now you can get Brown for minus 315.

Trinaldo plus 260. I played Randy Brown as a parlay piece. Yes, sir. Six inches taller, eight inches of reach, 12 years younger. He's faster. He has a volume advantage. I just feel as if this is an advantageous match.

for Randy Brown and I think he gets it done. I am in full agreement. I have Randy in a parley. I'm so excited to share with you the rest of the parlay. I can't wait to hear it. I'm really proud of it. It makes me very happy. But yeah, I'm full agreement here, so we don't need to spend too much time.

God love Maseranduba. He is 44 years old and he is on that Yoel Romero already shouts to us. Yoel Romero making multiple appearances in this episode. I mean, just love him. Yeah. Maser and Duba's on that, Joel Romero. He's 44, but he's an alien. But, like, that the bill comes due.

At some point, this just doesn't work anymore. Randy Brown is the kind of guy that it doesn't work on. Huge physical advantages. Not really a big athletic advantage, actually, because Trinaldo is so spry for his advanced age. But I just, I don't see any world in which Randy Brown doesn't end up marking up Trinaldo pretty comprehensively here. Yeah, I mean, the argument is Trinolo catches him, but I think Randy Brown's going to be all right.

Trinaldo has been paying out some underdog tickets lately, but I just, no fear. I'm back in Randy Brown. Let's ride it with the Rube Boy. I actually haven't been two parles, nice little over exposure. So when Trinato catches him, you'll catch me in the fetal position on my rug. All right, let's keep it moving. main card. It's a men's bansomweight bout. Heone, Barcelos going up against Trevin Jones. Right now you can get Barcellos for minus

215. Trevin Jones coming back at plus 185. Fight goes the distance minus 125. Fight does not go minus 105. So last time out, I had Heione Barcelos in a parlay. He was juiced to the moon. And he went out there and got absolutely pieced up by a short notice, debutante. How did that work out for you? It worked out terribly. Yeah, I was just like, what is going on? But I'm not giving up on him.

So about a year ago, I watched a YouTube video called The Striking of Hione Barcelos by Downward Elbow. I highly recommend anyone to go watch it. If you have a bet on Hione, Barcellos, it gets so deep into like his life. It breaks down his striking on like a whole other level. And it just makes you believe that he is like the greatest mixed martial artist ever live. but because of that YouTube video, I don't think I can ever bet against him. So yeah,

I took Aoni Barcellos last week at minus 185. I do just think in this matchup, he's just like the more complete fighter than Trevin Jones. Like he's a Brazilian national champion wrestler. He's a BJJ Blackbell. He obviously has this, the Chris striking. He mixes the martial arts, dude. That's what this guy does.

And on the flip side, Trevin Jones, he's just like very inactive out there. Like he doesn't throw a ton of volume. He doesn't do a ton of stuff. Like I know he's got knockout power. He has the capability to finish people, but Heione Barcelos has never been knocked out. And I mean, just like if you look at on the volume,

which I think is what Barcellus is going to do here, Trevin Jones has been outstruck in three of his four UFC fights, like pretty thoroughly in each of them, other than the one where he got a knockout. And I just think, Hey, honey's got him cover. here. I'm riding with Barcellos. Does it give you any concern at all that Houni is behind in the MMA math category? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Trevin Jones beat Timorvaliev, overturned, no contest. How do you feel

about the MMA math angle at play here? It doesn't worry me. It doesn't worry me. Janjohn, I beat Marine Rodriguez and McKenzie Dern lost to her. I mean, you know, I'm not thinking about it in my math today. Hey, that's good to hear because I'm with you. I just like how many. Like he's... I did right. He's just a likable fighter.

He's, he, I love his game. I love the way he strikes. He is high volume, but with power. That whole finishing sequence in his UFC debut against Kurt Hollibaugh is like put it in the loof. It's not like the world's cleanest striking, but it's awesome striking is what the hell it is. He's just dope. He's really fun fighter. It will not entirely surprise me if he goes out here and loses Trevor Jones

because it does seem that Howney has missteps in places he shouldn't. But I just like him. And so I took it because rule number three, betting is supposed to be fun. I like how many Barcellos. I want to bet bet on it. This can be a really fun fight. Yes. And I was just like, yeah, I'll just take a bet.

I know it's minus 225 or whatever. That's fine. So I bet on my guy. That's what I'm doing here. Bet on your guys. Great betters don't bet with their heart. Good thing I'm not a great better. I'll always remind everyone of that.

So, yeah, Heone Barcellus is the play. Let's keep it rolling on the main card. It's a featherweight bout, short notice. Sadiq Yousaf getting Don Cheyenneis. Right now you can get Yusuf for minus 9. Shameless. There we go. Right now you can get Yusuf for minus 900.

You get shameless for plus 625 over under set at 1.5 over minus 165 under plus 135. Under plus 135. Yeah, like I said, super short notice for shameless. Are you chalk donking? All right. So this is one of those weeks where people was going to be like, show the slips. I don't believe you. Yeah, I threw Sadiq in two parlias at minus 550 last week, but yeah, I'm chalk donkeying.

I would probably still parlay him up at minus 900 now. I mean, he's three inches of height, five inches of reach, and there's just a world of difference and the level of competition that these guys have fought. I mean, Shameless is beating 500 fighters, 0 and 6 fighters, 0 and 3 fighters. But the crown jewel of this man's record? Did you see it? Jay Ellis?

Oh, I am, yeah. That is one of the two things I wanted to talk about. 16 and 106 in 122 MMA bouts. 16. Hey, hey, he was only 16 and 104 when Don Shane has fought him. All right, so a couple of stats here. I went deep on old Jay Ellis. Jay Ellis is the man.

The man. He's fascinating. Listen, he builds MMA careers. That's what he does. He's good at building people's MMA careers because he has been finished in the first round, finished in the first round in 35 of his last 36 fights, 49 of his last 51. This guy goes out there. Listen, I'm here for a good time, not a long time.

Go ahead and get this over with and give me my paycheck so I can get out of here. Uh, 122 fights. It's been to a decision four times. Like, the guy, the guy doesn't go to a decision. Last part, maybe the best part. He has a win over Gerald Mearshart. Yeah, it's awesome. One of his four or whatever wins.

Yeah. And he also helped build Colby Covington. So, um, guys intertwined with, uh, with the story of the UFC. Uh, got way off track there. Yeah. No, no. We have to get off track. for just one more brief moment of this because I don't know if I've said this publicly I probably

have but certainly internally I've had a longstanding argument that were I to be put in charge of an MMA promotion the most important thing is accruing talent right like you want to get the best guys you can put on awesome fights it's dope I think that MMA promotions are all universally UFC one belt all of them are terrible at half of this because yes, you want to get the best talent that does awesome stuff but you also want to get

the talent that's going to get your best talent over. Like there is a skill to winning MMA fights. There is a skill to losing MMA fights in awesome and ridiculous fashion. And J. Ellis baby,

that man knows how to go out. You go out on his shield because let's be real. Jay Ellis has fought 120 times in his career. The man physically knows and is capable of not losing in the first round. Like, there is no way he is not at least able to go defend himself adequately because it's not like everybody is fighting as Colby Covington. He's making a choice. He is choosing to go and fight this way and consequences be damned. And that's the kind, that's the other end. That's the dirty side

of MMA promotion that nobody talks about. I would employ JALIS tomorrow if I was running a promotion because he's going to bring exactly the other end of things that I need. Now we can get back on track. I will say my only other piece on this. I agree with everything you said. I don't have a bet down because Sadiq Yusuf is a Lloyd Irvin guy and just as a general rule,

I'm not going to bet on Lloyd Irvin dudes. But I understand people are doing it. And I think that he's a fine parlay include if you're okay with that. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I just think he gets it done. You think J. Ellis still gets nervous for the walk? No, no chance. That man knows what's up. I feel like he's just crushing a six-pack in the back.

He's like, let's go do it. Dude, I don't know. Have you been in a lot of fights in your life? No, not in a ton. I mean, like, I've been in, like, scraps. Yeah, you've been in some scraps. Oh, yeah, I've been punching the face a few times. Yeah, it's one of the things that it bothers me, like, the most,

is when like people because you know I make some outlandish statements from time to time people get upset at me they're like well you wouldn't say that to colby covington's face like yes i would what's you gonna do beat me up that's cool like i'm not saying i could beat up colby covington i've also had my ass beat before it's not that bad like once you get your ass beat then you everybody who says that it's clear to me they've never been in a fist fight because like once you get beat up you're just like oh this is substantially better than like the idea in my head. And so for this dude, he's gotten beat up a hundred times. He doesn't give a shit.

I actually can't agree with that. The idea of getting your ass beat is much worse in your head than when it actually happens. Yeah. It's so, especially when you had never had it and like your tech, because you know, you grow up elementary or middle school and you're like, oh, I get afraid that I'm going to. And then you actually just get beat up one time. You're like, okay. I'm all right.

Like, I mean, it's not, it's not fun. It is not fun, but in the moment, like, also you got to remember in the moment your adrenaline is just like on go. So it's not hurting nearly as bad. In the moment, it doesn't suck at all. Exactly. It sucks the week after. Yeah, the week after when you're sporting like a shitty cut on your lip or whatever that keeps opening and is annoying. But it's, it's not that bad.

All right. Very short story time. University of Georgia, great place. Great place. Been in some scraps at that place. It's a weekend before. I'm not like a big. big, like I'm not going to start fights.

I really just, that's not really my ammo. I'm very easygoing. And if fight starts, I'm usually the guy trying to break them up. So one of my friends, we're getting some, getting some dog, some street meat before we headed home for the night. One of my friends gets into an altercation with a guy. I tried to come break it up. I'm like, yeah, just chill.

Like, we're about to go home. This isn't that serious. Like, y'all, y'all have had too much to drink. Let's just get out of here. Sucker punch, rocked. Like, I get rocked. in the face, like start just gushing blood. It's on from there.

It gets hectic. And that weekend in April happened to be the Saturday before Easter when I had to go home to my parents. The very next day had to go home to my parents, not looking too right. And like, I didn't tell them either until I got home when I walk in. Face is almost up. Oh, yeah, dude. It was bad.

Yeah. So, yeah. That just happens. That happens in college. You're out. some things happen. I played rugby at UGA. Oh, sick. Yeah. I was involved in many of

things like dumb little scraps like. It is where it is, man. And so like there's no way Jay Ellis is scared. No, no way. The worst part is I tell my parents, I'm like, I literally was trying to bring it up. We were trying to like, I was trying to be the peacemaker. And it didn't work out. All right. That's Jay

Alice. That's Siddique Yusif that's shameless. We keep it moving on the main card as we're getting squeezed for time. Next way it is a catch. bout at 140 sexy mexy John Castaneda going up against Daniel Santos sexy mexy minus 180 Willie Cat Santos plus 155. I know you said you didn't have anything here. I'm actually very much looking forward to this fight. Going back to watching some tape. I think it's a fun fight. Do I mean, Castaneda against Miles John just like wilted him with pressure and eventually like he was

wobbling him. He knocked him down in the second, knocked him down in the third and eventually choked him out with that arm triangle. I mean, he was pushing the pressure. And then I I went back and watched Daniel Santos fight. So shoot boxing, Charles Olivera, these guys just come for heads. Like, that's what Daniel Santos is going to come in and do. He is going to go head hunting on John Castaneda. And what fascinates me, what makes me so curious is if both these guys are pushing the pressure, if both these dudes are moving forward, like Miles John was supposed to have the power against John Castaneda,

and it was John Castaneda that was eating the shots and had the power and kept moving forward. So these guys just come out here swinging. Keep moving forward. Like, this could be a super exciting fight. I mean, we saw a dude blue hair from shoot boxing on contender series last night. I got a knockout in like 40 seconds. Like, these do come for blows. I think it's going to be a crazy fight.

Haven't played it yet. I was hoping you would have some insight, but it sounds like you do not. I'm very much considering after watching their last two fights, playing the fight does not go to a decision at even money. Because I just see these guys coming out here and brawling. I think it is going to be a brawl. going to be really and that's why I don't have a bet if I were if I were betting I have I have a little line under Daniel Santos underdog odds just because if I were to take a side I think that's a

dog or pass for me but I it's going to be one of the most fun fights on the card for sure I agree with your assessment absolutely going to be a brawl they're going to come out chuck and mitts I don't feel super confident that I know who is going to get the better of that which is why I'd have it as a dogger pass. But I have a lot of other bets this weekend, so I just decided I didn't need to throw anything here. That's a smart move. I've just decided in real time.

Let's get degenerate with it. I believe the fight doesn't go to a decision at plus 105. They gave me plus money on it. I'll take it because I do think this thing's going to be on go mode. You're a smart man. I am not because I mentioned that's Deke-Jusuf minus 550 great line. Well, one of the parlays I have them in is with John Castell. Custinata at minus 210, which is now long gone.

You can get Custinated as good as minus 175. Yeah, man, you said I like stats. I do like stats. I didn't go back and rewatch Santos's fight, and I just saw how thoroughly outstruck he got against Tullio R. I was like, Castaneda looked great, man. He's got this. Yeah, I went back and watched Santos fight, dude.

He had a terrible hit rate. He's scraps, though. Dude, he scraps. This is going to be sweaty for me on Castinata. I can't cash it out now. There's no option for me. So, yeah, I'm riding with John Castaneda. I was originally thinking he would just pressure him and fold him and wilt him and dodge shots,

but I don't know who's going to be doing the pressuring. Like both of these guys like to go for it and like to throw hands. So it's going to be dicey. I do think if it does go to a decision, Castaneda has the advantage. I think he will land far more. I also think he has a ground advantage. as well, but the way Santos comes out, man. He has the potential to attend the fight the way he goes for it, spinning shit.

Like, he's just shoot boxing, man. These guys are exciting right now. Yeah. Like I said, it's going to be a great fight. On to other great fights. Do you have anything on this Mike Davis-V-Bochislav-Bor-Shav fight? No, but I'm super stoked for it. Oh, I do not.

No, I mean, I think Mike Davis might win, but, like, also I'd, Kind of feel like Slava Claus is getting slept on a little bit. I love Slava Claus is the name. That's such a good name. Feel like he's getting slept on a little bit? I think it's going to be a great fight, so I'm just not going to touch it. You know why he's not, why he's getting slept on? There's one number as why, 11.

Mark Diakisi, who's not a historically great wrestler. He's a fine wrestler, but that's not his background. Took him down 11 times. Oh, yeah. That's a lot of takedowns. Dumbed. So, yeah. If Mike Davis has any success in the takedowns, it's probably over for Slava.

The thing is, he can wrestle a bit. He's not like a big wrestler, but he can wrestle a bit. He's really well-rounded. I think Mike Davis should win this fight, but if he doesn't go to the takedowns, this fight gets really interesting, really fast. Yeah, I agree with you. I think it's going to be a fun one, though. Mike Davis is fireworks. So that's the main card.

Let's rip through some prelims. First up, this is all you, men's heavyweight bow. Alexio Lennox plus 150 against Alir Latifi minus 175 over under now set at one and a half. They opened it at two and a half over minus 130 under even money. We were talking about it and I was like I said it. It's I'm taking every heavy weight over blindly. I was going to take it at minus two and a half. We were talking about that was plus money and I was convincing myself that I was okay with it.

Let's not get into the numbers because the numbers aren't great. are great for me. I'm, I'm, I'm here to recognize that. I will say that at over one and a half, the numbers become much better. The last four fights for Alia Latifi, he's hit the over. The man, especially in his move up to heavyweight, he has zero urgency. He is just not doing almost anything at all during the fight. Electro-Lenic, obviously a little bit more urgency, but he's, you know, against better guys, he's not Derek Lewis. He was a little slower to get things go in there. I don't need to talk the math here. The point is it's a heavy weight over. I'm taking it. Minus 130. I'm in there. The experiment continues.

I was very worried for you at the two and a half. I'm not going to lie. I wouldn't have been worried. I just would have assumed I wasn't going to hit it that time, but at one and a half, I'm feeling frisky. Feeling frisky. You know that I'm going to be cheering for you. I mean, we're great partners. We support each other in all our endeavors. That's it. Heavy word over. Let's all the breakdown we need on that fight. That's all you need it on that one.

Next up, it's a women's strawweight bout. Jessica Pene, plus 180, going up against Tabith. Baby Shark Ricci at minus 210. Fight goes, minus 240. Fight does not plus 190. I am on Tabitha Ricci. Let's go. Ressel, wrestle, wrestle, wrestle, and then wrestle some more.

Jessica Pene, 40% take down defense. She is liable to get put on. on her back. Yeah, she has like some submission threat, but I'm really not that worried about it for Tabitha and just, just pressure. Just pressure. Like, I mean, I wouldn't say Penn is got like a huge striking advantage. She's not really a great striker, but she is much bigger than Tabitha Ritchie. So just get it to the ground. I'm so excited you mentioned her being much bigger because I'd like to introduce you to a piece of information that you might not have. I want it. I need it. Tabitha, Tabith Ritchie, she is five feet tall at plus one. She is 5'1. Not particularly, not particularly tall, let's be honest.

Fairly small. Not for the division, it's okay, but just in general. Pinae has lost to Emily Ducote, who is 5'2. I was there, yeah. To Lupi Godinez, who is 5,2. Now, listeners might be saying, I thought she beat Lupi Godinez. You'd be like, technically, yes. but by no means in reality

did she actually beat I love how many narratives were changing on score cards this week me with Jan I'm just saying she didn't she didn't beat her I have eyeballs I watched that fight Daniel Taylor who is 5 foot zero

Jessica Androge who is 51 She is the only fighter shorter than 53 that penny is beaten was all the way back in Invicta This woman cannot use the size advantages that she has against smaller women. I think it's because the smaller women

can get under her guard and take her down. I love this. This is physics. This is physics. This is anatomy, biology, physics. It's science is what it is. Jessica Penna is afraid of our short queens. And what is Tabitha reaching? She is a short queen.

Baby shark. As soon as I was looking, before I even was like, oh yeah, she's a bad wrestler. It was just like, wait, this feels like the eighth small person she's fought. Yep. And she keeps losing to them. UFC has the short people that want to push.

Yeah. Feed her to Pennet. Short Queen Rain, baby. If you're 5'3 and up, then Jessica Penny has a chance of doing you. Could be a UFC champion if they allowed people if you had to be, oh, if there was a height requirement, if you had to be over 5.3, Jessica Penny is the strawaway champion right now. Unfortunately, that's not the case. It's not the case.

Short Queen's just upending her every step of the way. So I am with you. I've got a bet on top of the Ritchie. I'm all in on Baby Shark. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next up, lightweight bout. Joachim Silva going up against Jesse Ronson. Right now you can get Silva for minus 145.

Ronson coming back. Plus 125 over under at two and a half, over even money. Under minus 1.30. I am on the fight does not go to a decision at minus 145. Just looking at their records. Ronson, eight of his last 10s have not gone to the scorecards. Ben knocked out, been submitted, including his ultimate fighter fights for Joachim Silva, 13 of his 17 fights in his career have not gone into a decision.

Ben knocked out, been submitted. They've both been doing the knocking out. They've both been doing the submitting. I mean, these guys that have finishing abilities and can get finished, I think they're going to come out here, push the pace. Jobs might be on the line too. Might really want to come out here and do something emphatic. Don't really play that into a factor.

there in Silva, the chin is dicey. The chin is dicey. Catoed by Ricky Glenn, caoed by Nasrat Haqparas. I mean, both those guys... The man does not finish people. At all. Ricky Glenn, eight UFC fights, one K-O-win,

Joaquin, Wau-K-Silva. Nasraud Haq-Pras, 10 UFC fights, one K-O-Win, Waukim Silva. I didn't know that as Ricky Glenn was that bad on finishing either. Wow, that's... So, that is a combined 20 fights where he's the only KIO finish. That's 18 combined UFC fights only only KO finish for both guys.

So yeah, I like this one to not go to a decision. That's what I'm going to ride with minus 145 on that. I have no action on this. I didn't do a lot of study on this fight. I just kind of looked at it and thought I'll move on to other things. I have a lot of bets down. We'll run with your analysis. Sounded great.

You sold me. I appreciate that. I appreciate that. You'll be cheering for me there. I'll be cheering for you on the heavyweight over. And we'll hopefully make some money. Let's keep it moving, though. Let's keep it pushing.

We're plowing through these prelims. Next up, middleweight bout. Brendan Allen, Christoph Jocko, Allen plus 100, Jocko minus 120, and it looks like the people that are here to kick me out, look at them peering in, looking at me. I see them. I don't think she's seen my email or my Slack. Should I go address her real quick?

I mean, yeah, sure, if you want to. Yeah, I'll go talk to her. I'll talk on the Christoph, Jock, Brendan Allen thing while Conner's gone. We may cut this in post. you'll find out whether or not. I am on Brennan Allen. I think Connor might also be on Brennan. We might have ourselves a little wolf pack wage a baby.

I'm on Brendan Allen. He has only lost the top two middle weights now. Some of you listening might say, oh, well, that's the same for Christoph Jocko, and you would be correct. But I think Jocko is losing a step. He's a little bit older. He's not old. He's losing a little bit of a step, I think.

And he doesn't, as I mentioned at the top, he is not the same level of finisher that Brendan Allen is. Jocko goes to decision all the time and he's going to let Alan hang around. He's really durable himself, but I just, I like backing people who I think are more dynamic offensive threats, and that's Brendan Allen. So Connor is back. Connor, I tease the fans because I think you might be on Brendan Allen. I think we might have a Wolfpack wager here because I am on Brendan Allen.

First of all, we have to leave that all in. I just had a discussion with the fantastic lady outside. She's going to allow us a few more minutes here. Awesome. I'm on Christoph Jocko, actually. Damn it! Yeah, yeah. I mean, he's just got so much experience.

He's been in the UFC for almost a decade. Like, he just fights smart. He's obviously got the grappling chops to avoid the submission. He did it against GM3. Brennan is not GM3. And one of the biggest things for Jocko, 83% takedown defense over a pretty large sample size if Brennan tries to wrestle.

And if he does get him down, I think he's also going to get back. up. And then if it stays standing, I really think that Jocko's a better, a better boxer. If he wins, it's probably going to be boring. Probably going to hate it. Everyone's going to be mad. Every time Christoph Jocko has ever won, it was boring. But yeah, I'm on Christov Jock, and you're on Brendan Allen. And, you know, this is live production here, folks. We're going to keep it moving. That's what I wanted. I'm just really sad. I thought you were going to be on the dog with me and we'd have a wolf pack.

but it's fine. Now we're discovering where you and I have philosophical differences in our betting patterns because I am taking the more mercurial better finishers and you are taking the boring middle of the road. I'm good at fighting. That's not me. I'm never going to be that way. It might not work out for me.

Give me the roller coaster. It might not work out for me this weekend. I can't speak with massive confidence on any of these plays. if I'm being totally honest with you. You've got to play on a pre-limbout, light heavyweight, Maxime Grishin, Philippe Lens,

Grishin minus 180, Lens plus 155, over under set it two and a half, over minus 140 under plus 110. I'll keep the breakdown simple here because you may be looking at this and you may be saying, Jed,

this is a light heavyweight belt, but this is a spiritual heavyweight bout. Grishen fought a heavyweight many times, fought twice for the M1 heavyweight title, leans the 2018 pfl heavyweight champion let's not forget pfl heavyweight champion and the same time that grishin was in the pfl as a light heavyweight this is a spiritual heavyweight bout and what do i say i have a rule connor what is it we take the overs even though this isn't an actual heavyweight it's a spiritual heavyweight bout grishin also may just blow weight he's done it before this might

become a heavyweight bow by fight night so i'm on the over two and a half it's my it's 140. We don't need to talk numbers. We don't need to talk that finishes have been happening all the time. We're talking science, which is overs heavyweight fights

every time. That's where I'm at. I love it. I love it. There it is. The spiritual heavy weight over. Spiritual heavy weight over. Again, I'll be cheering for you.

I'll be supporting you. Last fight we have to get into on this UFC card. It is a men's bantamway bout. It's Randy Costa Guido-Kennetti, costa-2-80, Kennedy plus 235 over under set at 1.5.

under minus 140 over plus 125. Yeah, it's kind of something I've been going back to on this card, but yeah, Randy Costa, three inches taller, five-inch reach advantage, 14 years younger. He's not like the best fighter in the world, but like this is going to be fireworks. They're going to come out swinging. I think Guido Kennedy's going to come in with a similar style

as he did against Chris Matino. But Randy Costa is not Chris Matino. Randy Costa actually has UFC. wins. He has big time finishing capabilities. He's never been to a decision. And I think he's just going to get it done. I think he's going to catch Guido Canetti, and I think he's going to finish him. Tony Kelly fight doesn't exude a ton of confidence, but I do think Randy Costa bounces back here and gets it done. I also like the fight doesn't go to a decision. Parlayed that with Randy Brown. That's my second Randy Brown parlay. Got that at minus 240.

I mean, Costa's never been to a decision. I think Guido Kennedy's going to come out of your swing, and I do think someone gets finished. You left out the most important piece of analysis for this whole fight. Have you seen Randy Costa? That is a handsome man. God, he is. He's like a mini Paolo, but like Tanner. You cannot bet against a man that is that handsome.

Especially with the mustache. The mustache game is on point. Like, you just can't do it. I know. I had to look at a few different pictures. I was like, is this guy really that handsome? He is that handsome. And historically, if you bet on handsome people in MMA,

it largely works. But yeah, I'm with you. I mentioned that I had a parley I was really happy about. It's the Randy Parley. Randy Parley. Randy, Costa. Let's randy it up. Let's get Randy, baby.

I might drink some brandy to cheer on our Randy Parlay. I'm in on the same thing. I did add in Sadiq Yusuf as well. So call it a Randy plus old Yusuf. But yes, Randy's still we got. The Randy Parley, it pays out minus 130. I'm really excited about the Randy Parley, so I'm in. Should we do an ageism parlay where we just say, like, screw it.

We hate old people. And we fade everyone that's over 40. So that would be taking Alir Latifi against Alexia Lenin. Randy Host against Guido Canetti and Randy Brown against Francisco Trinano. The ageism parlay pays plus 179. I love old people, so I'm not in on that. I've just been burnt a lot by fading. old people lately so i'm not going to do it but i my heart believes in it but i've been i've been hurt

too many times lately so i can't join so that's the ufc card um we have literally no time to get into bellator i'm just going to say my belator parley and you say your plays for belator i have so many bets on you can rip through those i'll rip through them real quick yes uh it's very easy i not a ton of analysis here i'm taking adam boris over pit bull i think pit bull wins the main event but I just like Borks. I think he's flashed a lot. And Pippel, I can see a world where Pippel's last great performance is the AJ McKee rematch. And so taking the plus money play, probably a stupid bet. I'm anticipating a loss. But my gut says take the shot. I'm taking the shot. I've got AJ McKee. I've parlayed him up. It's not a great parlay. It's a simple one. I just did it with Aaron Pico because honestly, couldn't find odds for some of the other guys we talked about, Connor, to add. to this parley because some books don't have them yet because they're that juice. I know what you're going to say. I'm totally with you on it, but I just took A.J. McKee and Aaron Pico parlayed together.

Still paid out minus 225. Like that's a reasonable two-like, reasonable parlay. To interrupt you on that, I did this, I did the same thing and then added Lance Gibson squash match, 12 and 15 fighter that's been finished in four of his last five fights in the first round. And then I also added Samiko Anaba, Nadine, Man, Dian. Yeah, two and five pro record. Yeah.

Combined record of the two fighters she beat is one and three. And then, oh yeah, go back to Nadine's last amateur fight. It was against aforementioned Samiko Anaba and she was knocked out in 65 seconds. Squash match. They're trying to build up both those fighters. So yeah, I got that. Pays out minus 110. Anava is the one I wanted to add because we talked about it.

But no lines up for me to add to a parlay. So then I also, I'm taking a shot on Enrique Barzola. It's minus 110. Pick and fight with Juan Archiletta. I think Juan Archelaeta is getting a little older. He's in his late 30s, I believe, now. And he's just losing his fastball. And Enrique Barzola is a really competitive, tough dude.

It's going to be a great fight. I'm taking a shot. I don't have bets down yet because I ran out of time doing research. But I'm also very interested in J.J. Wilson versus Vladimir Tokov. That's a pick-em fight right now. And similarly, for Max Rockscoff versus Mike Hamel, I think I want to play Max, but he's minus 115. I got to do a little more research. because rule number 12, do the work, always do your research.

So that's where I'm at. Anything else you got, Connor, before we close her down? That's it for me on Bellator. My man, Chris, is about to come in here and literally rip me from this studio. That's what you get with live production people. I love it. UFC plays for me, Heione Barcelos, Ronson Silva doesn't go to a decision. Castaneda, Silva doesn't go to a decision.

I'm on the Silva Anders. Santos, I'm sorry. I'm not on that. Castaneda Santos doesn't go to a decision. Tabitha Ritchie, Christoph Jocko, Jan Jan Jan Jan Ann, by decision, parlayed Sadiq Yusuf with Castaneda, parlayed Sadiq Yusuf with Randy Brown and Randy Costa, and then I'm on Kenetti Costa,

doesn't go to a decision as well as Randy Brown. Perfect. I'm on McKinsey, Dern Yon under two and a half, Brownie Barcellos, Olinic Latifi over one and a half, Tabitha Ritchie, Brendan Allen. Grishon leans over two and a half, spiritual heavyweight fight.

And then the Randy Parley, Brown and Costa, paying out minus 130, plus all those belly hits that we just did. And that's it. We're wrapped, son. Before 930, boom. Look at that. Before 930, this is live production. I'm sorry to everyone if this felt a little bit rushed.

I'll make sure to check the studio out next week and not be a dummy. But these beautiful people have let us stay this long. That's all we got. Off week next week. But then we're back with another banger, Alexa Grasso, Viviana Rujo. You know, you don't want to miss that one. We'll see you then. Peace.

Love you guys.