MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Song Yadong Or Ricky Simon — Which Bantamweight Prospect Rises At UFC Vegas 72?

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

The UFC keeps right on rolling this Saturday with another return to the Apex, headlined by a bantamweight prospect matchup between Song Yadong and Ricky Simon, so the No Bets Barred boys are back to break down their best bets. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew begin the show by recapping UFC Vegas 71 as both guys are starting to build a little momentum after a tough start to the year. Then it's right into UFC Vegas 72 talk with Conner keeping things tight this weekend, while Jed has a whole pile of gimmick bets including ChatGPT's first ever underdog play, plus a Cheaters Always Win parlay. Tune in for Episode 43 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is going on, y'all? we are back. It is another edition of No Bet's Bar. This time. UFC Vegas 72. We're back at the apex again. Ricky Simone, Song Yadong, good main event. We'll find some fights to bet on it beyond that. Jed, how are we feeling, man? How could you not be feeling great when you just pull up the old Wikipedia, the old tapology, and you take a gander and you say this, this is an apex card, my friend. Of all the apex cards out there, this sure is one of them.

This is what the venue was created for. Really is. I will say, uh, we just, just got word in the last, like, hour or two, uh, that we've had another fight fall off the card. Natan Levy and Pete Rodriguez is being pushed back. So, as it

stands right now, I mean, it's still several days away. It's only 11 fights. So, a fight that I was actually looking forward to and Pete Rodriguez and Natan Love you. Yeah, I just this card is whatever. I'm happy

to lose them because if we can I mean, you usually lose at least one more on fight week. So we might be down to a tidy 10, just a very quick event to get in, get out. Yeah, yeah. And go about our weekends for BKFC. BKFC.

Head into a pay-per-view week, a Canelo-Alvarez fight week, one championship, first show in the States. DJ is Keep that in mind. Just keep all those things in mind that I just said before you place any wagers this week. You don't got to get it all this week. It's a marathon, not a sprint, which is a perfect segue to how last week went.

Not just betting. What is that professional? I mean, they pay me the big bucks for a reason. How was the marathon, my friend? I saw we finished. So we did and we didn't. The marathon did not happen. We had to make a game day audible.

into half. What? By you or by the planners? By me. There were, we suffered some setbacks in the week leading up to it. And there were parts when I didn't think I was going to finish the half. An unfortunate foot injury really, really made it very difficult. And so the day before I was like, I don't think I physically can make 26 happen.

I'm not even sure I can do the 13. I kept my marathon bib, so I was like, all right, we'll go. And when it comes to break off, we'll see how I'm feeling. And I was already on the struggle bus at like mile six or whatever, it broke off. So I just did the half. We did finish, finished, you know, in a time that I can at least live with, considering that I've been limping around for the last four days since then. But on to the next one, you know.

That is unfortunate. I saw you posted a picture in the morning, and I'm not going to lie. I was like, wow, he must have been cooking on that marathon. He must have got that done, that done quick. Well, what was the time for the half? Time for the half was 2.30, something like that. That's great. I'm right there.

I'm finished. That's. Finished, and I'm fine being under the 230 mark. Are you going to go back to the marathon well? Are you going to try and do a marathon again? Oh, the marathon's going to happen. We're going to, I'm taking a full week of doing nothing. this week, try and get my body to be a little bit better.

Because I don't really know what happened. Like my body just sort of started, started really shit in the bed, frankly, the week before. Sometimes it does, man. It's unfortunate. Yeah. So the foot was killing me. And then that led to my ankles and knees overcompensating and just my entire lower body being in trash form.

So we're going to heal up. And then we're going to find the next one to target. Now it's like you got to feel what it's like for a fighter to go through like a full camp and then week of have to pull out of a fight due to an injury. Almost exactly the same. You got a little taste. Exactly. I now know the life. But we're going to get back on the horse.

Since I'm still in like the cardio condition, obviously, like I can run 26 miles from a wind standpoint. I won't have to do like, at least I'm hoping I don't need to do like a full build. so we can maybe get back on the horse for something in a couple of months. I just got to look around and see what's out there, you know? I'm looking forward to it. I'm looking forward to you crossing the marathon finish line, conquering the foe that is the marathon. I did my one.

That was my David versus Goliath moment. I'll never do another one. Thank you very much. Speaking of back on the horse, that we are. Back to back winning weeks, baby. Back to back winning weeks. We're starting to feel good.

good got a few units back in the green on a Saturday a couple bellator hits couple UFC hits couple boxing hits feeling nice how did we do my friend finished up exactly one units oh it's one unit that's one unit closer to the green baby that's one huge i was thinking of you i was thinking of you when gervante davis landed that body shot i was like seven to 12 plus 220 that that that was it that was I was behind until then, and I was watching that on my phone because Saturday night post race, I was coming back from dinner with my family, and I was in the backseat. And so I pulled that up on my phone to watch it. And I was like, all right, now we're getting into the good rounds time.

Like the early, when he dropped him early, I was like, oh, my goodness. Dude, I had the over five and a half. I had the over five and a half alt line. I was shocked at how much I had to sweat that. I was like, tank will start slow. Ryan will, like, pour it on a little bit, but he won't have that much success, you know, we'll breeze to the five and a half. It was like one of those like, all right, guys, just a minute and a half left.

We got this. Like, we just got to get there. And it barely got there. It, like, barely got there. Yeah, so much more stressful than I would have thought. But then as soon as we got into the later rounds, like, okay, now's the time. Let's see it happened. And I didn't even see the body shot happen.

Like, it just certainly didn't. catch it into like the third replay. It was like, oh, you really propped him in the liver. But that was a big win. A couple of a couple of big playoffs. Patchy Mix. Patchy Mix. The Lord's Works.

The Lord's Work, man. I got him at a nice number. And I'm not going to lie. Talk about not seeing the body shot happen. I was out at a bar and they obviously didn't have Bellator on TV. They, though I credited this bar. They did have UFC and they did have the boxing fight, which was great. But I had patchy mix on my phone.

And someone said something to me as the knockout happened. And I turned and said something to him, turn back, patchy mix is celebrating. I'm like, oh, my God, what happened? Like a knockout that early was one of the last things I was expecting. Yeah, it did not see that one coming at all. But it was just all, it was all good, man. It was a up and down weekend as far as overall bets, but the profit is the profit, baby. And you know what I did?

We keep rolling on. Last week, I was like, I'm not. not doubling up. I'm not taking a money line and an over under. I did that. And what did it do? I lost both sides. I had Brad Tavarres and then I also had the over one and a half lost both. Like it's a lesson that just like the gambling gods try to teach you to me every week. They're like stop doubling up on money line and over unders. Just take one. Like just choose one. You're going to learn eventually. We're just going to make you miss both until you learn the lesson. So another attempt at a lesson learned.

Hey, I'm with you because I said that we should stop doing this. And yet this week, I'm doubling up on a bunch of these fights. Oh, baby. So we're going to have some fun for this card that is otherwise not that interesting. Lacks a lot of interest. I will certainly say that. Beyond the main event, it's a tough man. The main event's a good quality fight.

Make no mistake about that. But tough hang elsewhere on this. Let's get into it. UFC Vegas 72, UFC Apex, 72. We are back in the friendly confines of the UFC Apex. No fans allowed unless you're paying heavy VIP prices. We will start the main event. Bantamway Bout. Don't want fans. Don't need them. Don't need them. It makes it so much less cool when there are fans in attendance. Main event. Push from the co-main last week. Bantamway Bout. Song Yadong taking on Ricky Simone right now. Looked like it was going Ricky Simone way. Now it's coming back. Song and Dong. I mean, it's basically a pickum at this point. Ricky Simone minus 120.

Song you dong plus 100 over under set at four and a half under minus 140 over plus 110. How do we feel on this main event? Well, I will say that that line changed as you were speaking. I've got Ricky Simone at minus 115. Literally as you were saying, the number changed. Maybe Draft Kings is listening in and they, heard that like maybe I'm leaning Simone by the inflection of my tone. They were like, got to change the line.

Got to change the line. That's, you know, they're just getting ahead. I am leaning Ricky Simone in this. So I got him at the price of minus 120. A bit surprised to see the action has been coming in on song as consistently as it has is that number. I really felt that Ricky would be the one who would be getting pushed here. But I just like him in this fight.

I think this fight's going to be incredibly fun. won't be super shocked if song can win this just because he's super young he's getting better all the time but for me i think ricky simone is is kind of hitting his career peak right now he's got the wrestling advantage that's going to be huge from here song y dong is a good defensive wrestler but ricky simone is is so explosive so athletic that athleticism is the thing i say all the time athleticism cheat code in the sport go watch ricky simone fight jack shore jack shore jack Shore who is a good fighter. Looks like he is playing a different sport in there.

Ricky Simone is moving at 1.5x speed compared to him, and he simply can't keep up. I think Song-and-dong is a bit better of an athlete, but I still think the wrestling, the pace that Ricky Simone is going to put on him with that grappling is going to be enough to win over five rounds. But I'm interested to see what five rounds looks like for these guys. I mean, we haven't seen it. I know Song was set to go five against Corey Santagin, but obviously didn't quite make that. But be interested to see how that looks.

I think Song has some five-round experiences pre-UFC days. But, you know, maybe this fight gets into the deeper waters. Boys get tired could be different. But I'm back in Ricky Simone straight. And also, the first of my double-ups, I'm taking a half-unit wager on Simone by decision. just because Song Yadong, super durable. He's been stopped twice in his career once at Featherweight. The other one, the aforementioned Corey Santagin,

which was a doctor stoppage. He was ready to go out there and just keep doing the damn thing. Ricky Simone, half of his career wins are by decision. I think this probably does go late, go to the card. So I'm taking a half unit shot on Simone by decision at plus 240. I love that you said that. First things first, the Ricky Simone Jack Shore fight, I was in attendance in person for that,

and it was like astonishing. I was dumbfounded at how good Ricky Simone looked in that fight. Unbelievable. At one point he like body slams Jack Shore, like fully picks him up and body slams him and like they have the canvas miced and it just echoed through the whole stadium. And at that moment, I was like, I'm probably going to lose this bet. Like a bet on Jack Shore. I was like, this is this is not a good.

Ricky Simone is kind of just doing what he wants to. I lean Ricky Simone. But what I'm going to do is not double up. I am going to try and stay away from doubling up. You mentioned that you think this fight is going to go long. actually agree with that. Over two and a half, I grabbed it at minus 150, still there at a few books. I get that they have finishing abilities, Songy Dong, especially with that knockout power. A quick aside, does it worry you at all that the one time that Ricky Simone got sent to

the shadow around by Uriah Fabor, Uriah Fabor, Uriah Fabor coaches Songy Dong, training partners? Look, I don't feel, it's not something I'm like, oh, I don't have to think about that at all, but that was four or five years ago. Also, just an incredibly odd outcome because it's not like Uriah Faber has ever been known as a massive one-shot artist. He was already on the downslope in some ways. Yeah, thank you. He just kind of feels like an anomaly.

Yes, like Riggis Simone got caught there. Like, any sort of narrative that he might be cheney to me is kind of crazy. Like, he is tough as hell. And you mentioned it. These guys have 50 pro fights combined between them. They've only ever been finished four times. Like that's 8% of the fights that they end up getting finished. And most of the times they end up winning.

Don't love the actual statistics behind it. 13 of their 22 UFC fights have gone over the two and a half, which isn't like the greatest number in the world. But I think at this level of competition, how tough these dudes are, how durable they are, I think it's going to get over two and a half. I think it's going to be super competitive. I think it'll be back in the world. forth. I think Ricky's going to have moments with the wrestling. I think song's going to have moments

on the feet. I do lean. I do lean Ricky to get it done. I think both these dudes having like very good cardio. I think the five rounds, you know, I think it's tough to choose aside on on who benefits who there. But I think it's going to be a fantastic fight. I think both these dudes have championship potential in them. I mean, for sure. A song's so, so, so young. He's like what, 25 years old. He's nothing. Rigi Simone a little older. If he's going to make a run, he's got to make it now. I do think he has the talent and potential to fight for a title, but it's Bannon way anything can happen.

He can get caught again in this fight or by any of the other dudes in the shark tank. So if I'm saying who do I think is more likely to fight for a title one day, it's song because he's so young and he's so talented already. But both of these guys have a world of ability. and so it's a great fight. I'm really excited for it. This is the fight that should be the main event. I'm glad we're getting five rounds even on the short notice push here. Very excited about this one.

Yeah, I think it's going to be a fantastic one. I have no worries of either these guys not being in any sort of shape to take five rounds. These guys, consummate professionals, seems like they, you know, stay ready so you don't have to get ready. So I'm leaning Simone. You're betting Simone. We both like it to go a little bit longer. And that is the main event at USCAT. I may take, obviously we're doing this on Tuesday so we don't have the DK like over one and a half.

The Seaberg special. I may try and cook up some sort of a parlay with the over one and a half in this because looks like it's going to be out around minus 270 based on some of the other places with that and play. All right. So if you change from like how I said 13 of their 22 UFC fights, have gone over the two and a half. If you change it to the one and a half, you are going to add instead of 13,

it becomes not that different, actually. It just becomes 15. Oh. Yeah, I actually thought I was about to drop some crazy knowledge there. Yeah, it only becomes. I was excited. I was like, I really thought I was about to drop some crazy knowledge there. Yeah, it only becomes 15.

Yeah, they have quite a few first round finishes between them, though. I would be very surprised. Three first round finishes between them, I would be surprised if that's when this one ended. Well, I think I'm going to cook up a C. Burks Parley special as we go here, certainly as the lines drop for DK, but for the time being, let's move on. Yeah, let's move on to the co-main event of the evening.

Kyle Barahou taking on Mikhail Olexeycheck. They call him co-main event, Kyle Borough, Connor Burks. That's what they call him. That's what they call him. Did you see him tweeting at Ricky Simone and Song and Dong being like jokingly, but he's just like, you guys took my main event spot. It was like, you would never. Yes. No, this is a little bit longer ago. This is who you are. How many co-main events does he have? This is his third in four UFC fights. That's right. Four UFC fights, three of them will be

co-mains. You got to love it. You got to love it. And the only time that he wasn't is when he was on 280. Like, I mean, of course. Yeah, I think like this is a pretty good matchup for him as well. Like if he can avoid the power, like if you watch Olexeyech, dude is just throwing caution to the wind. Go back and watch his Sam Alvey fight. I don't know if it was because he was fighting Sam Alvey, but he was just like, you're going out, dude.

Like you're not going to stand and trade with me. I'm putting you out. He was throwing the biggest shots I have ever seen in my life, just like the most telegraphed, like fully bringing his arm, like throwing everything into it. If Gio can avoid that power, he's going to be able to get him to the ground and he's going to be able to rack up big time control time. Mikhail, 43% take down defense, three of his five losses by submission.

His weakness is Kyle's strength. Now, here's the question, because I do think Brow gets it done. Does he get it done racking up 12 minutes of control time and like going for like 18 submission attempts and not getting it? Or does he actually get the sub? I feel like every time he fights, I bet on him by sub and I always lose. And it's like only plus 125 this week. So like I couldn't get around to that.

But I think Barolo wins here. So I'm with you. I feel like honestly, I'm about to talk out of both sides of my mouth here because I'm an idiot. Sure, sure. I actually feel like these odds are maybe a little wide for Barrio just because Olegs, Zajia has looked pretty good since coming down to 185, you know. And Barrio is still a bit untested. I do think the style matchup, like you said, massively favors.

I mean, Oloch Sajic is not a great take-down defender, Barrio, a very good grappler. Plus, as we mentioned, is a co-main event. This man cannot be defeated in the co-main events. So a lot of that really builds form. Also, you know, I love gimmicks. He's been dominating Eastern European fighters, you know. Russia, Armenia, Uzbekistan, her three wins.

Now he's getting Poland in there. He's just moving his way across the continent and dominance. That's what Kyle Barrio is doing. I'm picking him to win and putting him in a parlay. I want to talk about that parlay when I get to the second leg because I have a very specific parley about him. But I am also going to take a half unit shot on the bicep prop this time. I wish the price was a little better, like you said, because again, it feels like he should be getting more submissions than he is. Instead, he's racking up control time.

But he is a very good grappler. He is going to get those takedowns. Oleg Seych has been submitted. admitted in three of his five losses. And more importantly, Oleg Seidic, not a bad grappler, but like you said, he's a guy who's throwing out offense. He is going to be scrambling, trying to make things happen. That, to me, feels like it's going to open up the opportunity for Boralia to finally get

his first submission. Maybe he's a little pissed off that his main event got taken from. He takes it out on Michael Oleg Seidic finally gets that finish and can become main event, Kyle Baralio, but I'm going to take a half-unit shot on the subprop. So I just want to add a little something to this. You said three co-main events in UFC. Before he got to the UFC, he was in four more co-made events. He's a co-main event, Kyle.

In 14 fights, seven of them have been co-made events. Bad news is he did lose one. The first time he was in the co-main event, he lost. Was that Wocheck? Carvalo. Carvalo. Oh, okay. his only loss was actually in a co-main event i i wish he was seven and oh

that's a second fight though yeah yeah one one was also a no contest uh i'm just gonna assume he won that one and you know they tried to do our guy co-man wrong there but yeah uh cmc as we call him comaine kyle mhm think he's gonna come through for us uh yeah he's just plus 120 on the sub prop like the guy only has three submission wins yeah but he is a good good grappler. Yeah, I agree. But I am plus 120. Like, like, all right. So Pete Rodriguez is off the card now. I bet Pete Rodriguez by K.O. because he literally only ever wins by K.O. if he wins. And that was plus 500. Like, it's just like, you got to give me like a big gap there. Like, minus 120. Come on. Or plus 120. I mean, yes, but it's also he's a minus 3.50 or whatever. So you're getting

the gap there, even though I think that. It's not a, I'm not saying that it's a good bet. I just kind of vibed this one. I was like, I think he's going to tap him. Let's go for it. I mean, if I'm being totally honest, if I was picking a winner and a method, I would also be going with, yeah, he's probably going to tap him out. Oh, let's Sechak, K.O. Plus 525.

That's not bad. I mean, only say check is over plus 300 on a few books. See, if I saw him at 300, I might have been talked out. of my idiot gimmick parlay which Kyle Barrio is a centerpiece of. Because plus 300 feels viable but also I mean plus five whatever

you said 50 525 not bad the over under on this fight is like one and a half and it's like close to even money so the Vegas believes there's a finish coming obviously it believes more that Barrio is getting

the sub but I'm saying two and a half minus 165 Oh, so they moved it because earlier today, the over under was one and a half and it was like plus 120 on the under or something like that. Yeah, yeah. I'm seeing on some books plus 105 on the under. So yeah, I mean, maybe there will be a finish in this one. Comain Kyle, I think he gets it done though. I will also be parlaying him up.

Okay, love that. Love that energy. Yeah, and I'll tell you who I'm parlaying him with. And then I have one more parlay, like, that I need a second. I need a hand in hand to go with that I'm hoping you can give to me at some point. You don't want the Seaberg special, the Simone song, over one and a half? I know. I thought about that, but then I'm going over one and a half and over two and a half.

So if there's a finish in the first seven and a half minutes, I'm sitting there holding my head. Look at you trying to be a responsible young man. I appreciate that. Trying to, man. Trying to. I mean, that Tavares loss. I was just like, wow. If I had just not made one of those bets, I would feel a lot better right now.

I didn't watch almost any of the fight night last week live because I was at dinner with my family. So I got to see the Wells Simmel's burger and then I went off to dinner. And so I missed it all and came back. It was like, this can't be real. Brad Tavar. This was supposed to be a lock. I felt so good about this one. Here's what I'll say.

If you didn't stop the Jeremiah Wells fight, you should. shouldn't have stopped the Brad Tavares one. That is my, my firm thoughts on that. Like Jeremiah Wells was flashed, did not know where he was, was like desperately trying to figure it out, and then like got his bearings.

Brad Tavaras got knocked down and was immediately trying to scramble and get back up and they called it. Like, also the first fight of the night, Brady High stand. Like, if you're going to call that fight, like you also should have called the Semmelzberger.

one like there was some of those stoppages were were dicey dicey last week i wish they had just stayed consistent with them it was there was a lot of fun going on last week uh but yeah where are we at for i believe we're leading into trying to keep us moving for times oh yeah yeah let's let's keep it all for viera cody brundage it sounds like you're parlaying up mr viera with cailea is that true not viera the under two and a half minus two 75 uh yeah i mean i was going to to take fight doesn't go to a decision but it was like minus 375 and for two and a half minutes I can I can drop it by almost 100 points I'm going to do that especially when almost all of their wins or losses. Brondage 9 of his 11 fights under the two and a half seven first round finishes

Viera eight of his 10 fights under the two and a half five ending in the first round I think the era chokes him out in the first round or Viera gases out and and Brundage finishes him I I like the under here. I don't hate it. I can't figure out, I sort of feel like I want to be betting Vieira in a parlay, but then I'm just not all the way sold on it because the gassing could be a thing.

I mean, Cody Brundage is not a very good striker. Vieira is not a, it's not good, but he's competent. Like he's very rote, very mechanical, but he's, he at least knows somewhat what to do. He's obviously got major grappling advantage. Cody Brundage relies so much on his wrestling. Can he do that?

Or is he forced to just wrestle in averse? And even if so, is that a good look for him in this fight? Just so many variables I don't feel confident in that I don't have any action down for this fight. But I'm leaning Vieira to get the win. But again, I just can't really, I don't really feel like I have a great read here. Yeah. In terms of aside, I really don't know who it was. I mean, there was one point where Vieira was like minus 300.

I had no interest at that point. Yeah. So it's very pricey, particularly when you know there's a possibility that he gases out within six minutes. That he gases out in like Cody Brundage is a, he's an opportunistic fighter. Like he will, in my opinion, capitalize on that. But this ever goes to the floor. He's in such a war. Like, Olook, Seychuk reversed Brundage and bashed his brains in.

So if this hits the mat at all, Vera really has a great chance to get him. out of there. It's just a tough one for me to feel great about either side. Yeah, yeah. I mean, you want me to be honest? I think it's going to hit the mat and I think Vieira's probably going to finish him. I mean, like, I know he went over against Chris Curtis, but Chris Curtis has insane takedown defense. Really good at defending takedowns. Like, I mean, in every one of his fights prior to that, he landed a takedown. I mean, the Stolfeus fight three takedons. The Hernandez fight four takedowns. The Safarov fight two takedowns. The Oscar Picota to fight three takedowns.

Like, I think he's going to be able to get this to the Madden. Like you said, Brunge relies on that wrestling, dude. He averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. Like, I think it's going to go to the Madden. And I think Vieira's going to get him out of there. I think that's where I'm at, but not enough to bet on it. So no bet for me. And you're on the under for your parlay.

Under for the parley, under two and a half, alt under. Let's keep it rolling. Featherweight bowed out Julian Orozah, taking on Fernando Padilla. Right now you can have Juicy J for minus 150 Padilla coming back plus 130. Any thoughts on this one? I am like you with the last one. I have no action here.

Julianneuroso kind of like my kryptonite, I guess, these last few fights I was on Dawoodoo when he fought him. He just pieced them up. then I was on him against Casares. He lost that in the first round. Don't really know what to make of him. He's going against the debutante. I just stayed away. He's a tough guy to know what to do with because when I was doing the research,

I realized he has only been a favorite twice. He has 11 U of C belts and he has been the underdog in nine of them. Wow. I mean, he is paying off money for him. We're banking on him every time because he's winning a bunch of fights. As a favorite, I have no idea. I don't remember. I know he's at least 0 and one.

I think he's one in one as a favorite. I think he's one and one as a favorite, which means, you know, nine fights. He's got several underdog wins. He's paying money for you if you're betting him as an underdog. He is a favorite in this fight. And Padilla, young kid making his debut, young Mexican kid making his, debut. Is he the next Daniel Zellhuber? Who can say?

You know, we both ate one on the Zellvins. You know? And so I said, I'm going to let the fates decide. I'm going to let the future decide. It is this week's chat GPT bet. A quick recap.

Last week, chat GPT, delivered. We got the win with Norma Dumont. Didn't totally have the right read on that fight. I got a little confused. There was a late surge by one fighter in the third round, a knockdown, just the wrong fighter, but we still cash the Norman-D-Mont ticket. Chat-G-T experiment, two and two.

We're down a third of a unit. So we win this one, we get in the black. Chat-G-T has a definitive side in this one, Connor. As the round progressed, Padilla managed to close the distance and secure a takedown. Erosis is quick to scramble to his feet. Padilla is relentless in his pursuit of the takedown. The two fighters trade positions on the ground with Erosa showing off submission defense. Padilla was determined to impose his will.

The second round began much like the first with Erosa using his range to keep Padilla at bay. However, Padilla was not discouraged, continued to press forward looking for an opening. As the round went on, Erosa began to tire and Padilla saw his chance with a lightning fast combination. Padilla caught Erosa off guard, landed a devastating blow that sent Erosa crashing to the canvas. Padilla pounced on his opponent, raining down punches until the referee stepped in to stop the fight. And so this week, the chat GPT bet is Fernando Padilla, plus 130 as an underdog.

And I'm also taking just a little baby sprinkle on Padilla by Round 2 TKO just to see if we can hit one of those. All right. That's it plus a thousand, by the way. Wow, wow, wow. Round 2-KO. Round 2-KO plus 1,000, just a little 10. of a nothing bet on it and then you know padia straight underdog plus 130 i love it i love it uh chat gbt has been good to you so far i'm waiting for it to get the exact i'm waiting for it to get the exact

anybody can pick a fight one or you're either one side or you're either the right side or you're the wrong side i need it to get the exact uh it's on me i still have to figure out the right inputs to to get the i to deliver so we're we're going to continue tweaking we're going to at least do 10 of these. We got to at least get to 10. Yeah, of course. Have a real sample size to know what we're doing. But yeah, very excited.

You know what else I'm excited about, Connor? What's that? This is an event for your boy. Yeah. Because we've got the chat cheap. Oh, wait, what's the next fight order? Hold of Cortez-A Costa, Marcus Roger, Elima, and then Martine Boudet.

This section is where your boy is cooking. Because up next we've got not one, but two. count them two heavyweight bouts Connard marks. I'm so excited. All right, let's kick it off. Waldo Cortez-Aosta taking on Marcos Rosario de Lima. Is this the most names

in a UFC bout? A lot of names. A lot of names going on. Right now, Marcos Rogerio de Lima minus 165, I believe, minus 180. And, well,

Waldo Cortez-A Costa coming back plus 155. Seems like a lot of people are on Marcos Rogero de Lima this week 37 years old I don't know I don't know This is this this card is

There's a number of stayaway spots for me If you want to be totally honest What I really thought of What I really looked at Was salsa boy Waldo Cortez-A Costa by decision Plus 450 I mean he The Lima really only ever gets

Wends decisions Wends decisions The Lima really only ever gets sub he's only been knocked out once I don't see Cortez Acosta finishing him here that if I was going to do anything that's what I would do I mean we're we're fastly

quickly approaching Marcus Rogario Delima minus 200 my that feels somewhat insane for Marcus Roger Delima to be that big of a favorite I don't didn't even look at it but I don't hate that a sprinkle on the the salsa boy by

decision. That's a pretty good price. I might, maybe I'll throw in a quarter unit on it just to have fun because you know what I'm doing, Connor. It's a heavyweight belt, but I've got questions because I don't have a bet on this fight at this moment. I would, or I will be taking the over. Currently the over two and a half is at minus 145. I'm going to say that again in case you didn't hear the over two and a half is minus 1.45, Marcos Ruggiero delima has only...

For this fight, for this fight, it's minus 145? That is a... Oh, I'm sorry, it might be over one and a half. I think it's over one and a half. Okay. Yes, it is, it is over one and a half, sorry.

But in 15 UFC fights, Marcos Ruggiero delima has only gone over one and a half three times. Wow. This man, look, on the other side, Waldre Cortez de Costa, he is the heavyweight over king.

We stand our salsa boy guy. He is always not fighting for our money. Roger de Lima, this man gets the business done quickly. Yeah. Yeah, wow. I did not know that. 12 of his 15 UFC fights under one and a half?

Under one and a half and 12 of his 15 UFC fights. Christ. Killer be killed. It is a, it's a very, very concerning number. And so I wanted to talk to you about this, about not really the next fight so much, though, maybe, but really it's this fight. And our other issue, you know, flyweight unders, because I'm going to get ahead of ourselves a little bit. Cody Durd and Charles Johnson.

So flyway fight, the under two and a half. It's a nightmare. It's a nightmare. It's a fight. You want to just be totally honest? It's a nightmare. Because this is my question, Connor, because that's a nightmare. I did that I pulled the stats right I went and looked back heavyweight overs successful bet this year

six in five up a unit right now flyweight unders they're just the best bet in sports nine and five up almost five units if you're just betting one unit on each of them that does even better if we take out was it the oday osborne fight uh where he missed weight charles johnson and oday osborne missed weight. Road D.OFC. If you're not counting that because they weren't official flyway pouts, it gets even better. We do have to count it, though, because we did win more.

So I have it calculated, and I'm just throwing it out there for the listeners. But I need to talk to you about that fight, because this Durd & Johnson fight, are we committed to the flyweight unders on it? Yeah, I'm not going to quit now. I took a plus 185 through a half unit on it

or 0.55 just to get a unit back. this is when true flyweight unders the believers in the gospel the faith gets tested this is the week that the faith gets tested um yeah like it's uh i mean Cody Durden half his fights ended in the first round Charles Johnson has a first round finish I'll be it over Jimmy Flick 10 fights in the UFC for them four have ended in the first round like it's possible But it is possible. How do I see this fight going down?

Cody Durdon wrestles, has some success. Charles Johnson finds his way back up. They throw on the feet. There really isn't much power getting thrown around. Round one ends, round two ends. Rents repeat. Rents repeat. Decision 2928.

Johnson, 2928. Durdon, 2928. Fear win by split decision. Flip your coin and decide. side. Yeah. So that's exactly how I feel. And as I was looking this over, I was like, well, you know, we had talked about Mohamed Makayev just being enemy of the state and maybe he is exempt from it. I don't really know the rules we're going at. I'm going to, I'm, I'm a true believer. I'm right here with you. I'm riding the under two and a half dirt and Johnson then.

But if we were going to say, we're going to take this one off, then I also would take the heavyweight over on Roger Delima Wall. Waldor Cortez-A-Costa off. That's a jarring stat. I'm definitely not taking Waldo Cortez-A-Costa by decision anymore. It's very, very jarring. I will still be sticking with it, staying true to it, because it's the most electric bet in sports,

and that's what we'll be going. So I am on the over one-and-a-half here at minus 3-4-5. Boudet Collier. How you feeling? I'm also taking the over. This one is the two-and-a-half. My notes were conflating the two fights. It's over two-and-a-half.

Collier's hit over two and a half and six of his 12 U of C bouts, Boudet. I mean, that's actually such a beautiful stat that it's six of the 12 because I was just about to say, you just have like, Jake Collier is either looking to get out of there in the first round, make it a quick night at the office, or he's down to just throw shots out there for 15 minutes.

Yeah, fortunately against Marm Boudet, not entirely sure that that's how this will go. He's one and two on the over, but one of those was the crisp, Barnett technical decision that they stopped the fight early because of an illegal blow. So taking the over feel much better about over two and a half, a much more interesting and fun heavyweight over here. It's at minus 135.

But I also have one more bet on this one, Connor. Tell me. I mentioned earlier that I have a dumb parlay, an idiot parlay. And it's this one because Martin Badegh, this man, the last. last time this man fought, not the last time, two times before, he fought Chris Barnett. He fought Chris Barnett at the some fight night in Vegas in 2022. Oh, I remember. I remember which one it is.

Oh, I remember. I remember this event because something that I think has never happened before, happened, and may never happen again. We got two technical decisions on the one fight, on the one fight card. Wow. Armaday gets a technical decision against Chris Barnett. Fight gets stopped in the third round, doing an illegal blow, wins the decision.

Later on that evening, Connard. Yes, yes. In the co-main event of that evening, Kyle Borallio also wins a technical decision after a foul on Godzio, Omar Godziev, results in the bout being stopped, going to the cards. Kyle Borallio wins a tech decision there. Those two men won tech decisions on the same card,

and now they're fighting on the same card again, you know I love a gimmick parlay. There's no way I'm not parlaying them together. So I have parlayed Barallio and Boudet together for the cheaters win technical decisions parlay. Pays out a plus 151. I'm so excited about it. Wow. The cheaters win technical decisions.

So you are drawing the line in the sand, you are confirming they are cheaters. I mean, they committed fouls that did not get punished. and where in fact they were directly benefited from. Man, this was, man, what a flashback. I'm looking at the card right now. It's been a year.

This was an Andre Fialho was just the talk of the town. Like this was when Fialo went like, you know, toe to toe hung tough with Michelle Pereira and then beat Cameron Van Camp and Miguel Baezza. Wow. Yeah, it was. Sporting change fast. Sports can change fast.

Back when we believed in the man. And yeah, just a super weird card. But in both instances, I definitely lost on the main event by betting against Ballah Muhammad. I'm sure I'll do the same next week for UFC 288. But yeah, so that was kind of the heavyweights wrapped in a bow and also the flyway bow between Charles Johnson and Cody Durdon. I mentioned, though, how I kind of thought this fight was going to go. And for that reason, took a little point spread action. Cody Durdon plus three and a half points minus 150.

Okay. Charles Johnson would have only covered that once in his UFC career. Matter of fact, eight career decisions, four of them are via split. Notorious close fighter. And I imagine that this one is going to be close as well. I am confident Cody Darden can win one round, clearly to the judges. Boom. What do we have for a fight wins by split decision number?

I love the eight of the four and eight that is a that's a good stat yeah so the way I see it is this goes to a decision and Cody Durdon covers that number and I went a little bit or one of them gets a finish and I also went a little bit so yeah I'm trying to find a win win here it's almost like a hedge against the the flyweight under though the flyweight I just gonna that don't hate don't hate don't hate the bet. Durdon finish would be sick. Split decision.

Durdon, Darden, finish would be sad. Atlanta. That's still the needle perfectly for all of us. Atlanta. Fighting out of Atlanta. Got to support our guys.

Gotta, gotta support our boys. All right. That's that. We keep it rolling. As we are in hot pursuit of the shortest no bets barred episode

ever four fights to go. I don't know if we're going to make it. Next up, welterweight bout short notice Josh Quinlan taking on tray waters trey waters currently the welterweight champion in LFA he uh grabbed that title just two weeks ago not available at all the books right now but uh Josh quenland minus 180 tray waters coming back plus 155 I went back and watch the tray waters I mean it was a viral knockout I saw it when it happened I mean it was literally 11 days ago at this point as as

as of recording. Now he's on one week short notice. He was definitely losing that fight to Jalen Fuller just out of sheer inactivity. He really wasn't doing much. I mean, he was just kind of fighting with his hands in his pockets. Got hit a decent amount, got rocked bad at one point, but obviously does get the knockout win. Went back and watched the Contender Series fight. Much more active in that one, obviously against Gabriel Bonfim, who we now know is a beast. still though, like he gets hit and he's going up against the juice man himself in Josh Quinlan. And another thing is he's taking this on one week's notice after just fighting two weeks ago, swelling in the eye, black eye, everything like that.

He is also gigantic for 170. It's astounding that he even makes it down to welterweight. He's 6'5 fighting at welterweight. The fact that he's going to have to cut two times over the course of three weeks. He's getting this on super short notice against what I'm going to assume is going to be a fresh Josh Quinlan. I think someone's going out for sure. Like both these guys carry a ton of power.

Neither of them really ever goes to a decision. I think Josh Quinlan gets this done. I have no thoughts on this fight whatsoever. So I hope you do well. Josh Quinlan, it is. Waiting for the inside the distance. Take a peek at that. Hopefully you can get a plus money sign next to that.

be tremendous. Tough, tough ass for Dray Waters here. Let's keep it rolling. Women's Bantamweight out. We got two, we get a flyweight bouts, two heavyweight bouts, and two women's bantam way bouts. I mean, pinch me. I must be dreaming.

This is designed to be the worst card in history. Two women's bantamweight bouts and two heavyweight bouts. Stephanie Eggard takes on Irina, Alexiva. Right now you can have Stephanie Egger for minus 305. It's a big number. It's a big number. Plus 255. I am not playing it straight.

I took Stephanie Edgar inside the distance here at plus 150. I mean, Irene Alexiva has fought one time in the last three years. I'm sorry. Call her by her true name. Russian Ronda. Russian Ronda. Russian Ronda. Fantastic nickname all time.

Russian Ronda sitting at 4 and 1. And like just her career path, she beat three sub-500 feather weights, women's feather weights on the local Russian scene. Then she goes in fights an 8 and 6 flyweight. I need you to say the best part of one of those wins. Tapology has it recorded as a win by refusal to fight. Yeah, three minutes and 23 seconds into the first round.

Refusal to fight. O and O, and two, in her career. I mean, she's fighting cans. The first three fights of her career were absolute cans. Then she goes and takes on a flyweight in December of 2019, and she loses. She loses to an eight and six flyweight, Liliya Kazak, and I went back. I did the work so you don't have to. I watched all 15 minutes of that fight.

And she was in some bad positions throughout that. Dude, at the end of the first round, actually throughout the first round, she gets flattened out like two or three times. And then at the end of the first round, like there is a rear naked choke sunk in body triangle. I really don't know how she survived it for like 25 seconds. But alas, she did survive it. Still lost.

And, uh, yeah, just didn't look great to a woman much smaller than her. Stephanie Eggers fighting at her natural weight class. seven of Eggers, eight wins in her career, all of her UFC wins are by finish. She comes out looking for finishes. I think this is going to be a levels fight. Like it's weird matchmaking. I don't really understand it.

Alex Siva has fought one time in the last three years in Bellator against like a seven and five fighter. Did you watch that fight? It was bad too. It was so... I'm not even sure she should have won. I'm not sure she should have won, but I'm praying that this bet hits

because those 15 minutes were unbelievably boring. Yeah, it's godspeed for you for this bet. Does it concern you at all that this is Arena's second Stephanie in a row? I mean, she fought Stephanie Page and Bellator got the W. I like where your heads are? Maybe she's just, maybe she's the Stephanie killer. Yeah, I like where your head's out with that, but no. I really think this is a fight.

even everyone's saying like how big of a number this is for Stephanie Eger I am under the belief maybe I'm wrong Russian Ronda could could prove me dead wrong here I think this is one that we're looking back next week and we're just like yeah why did they make that fight like that just was weird I'm going to pick Stephanie Eger I'm not going to better because there is I don't think this will happen but it is Stephanie Eger got tapped by Meyer Buena Silva which remains like the weirdest thing that's ever happened in women's MMA to me out of nowhere.

And so this, I can't trust her. And I will feel, if I'm holding a Stephanie Egger parley piece ticket and she's the parley wrecker, I will feel so stupid on Sunday morning. I just can't do that to myself. But God's feet.

Does have quite a few submissions on a record. I know. But Stephanie Eger like, grappled Gabby Garcia and didn't get finished. to my boy in Silva, Tapser. It was weird. Off her back with like a white belt arm bar. It was insane.

I will say, I'm not playing Stephanie Eggers straight. Taking the plus 150. I think she gets it done here. I think that's a better, certainly a better bet than putting her as a parley piece. I just decided I'm good. I don't need the action. So good luck, sir.

Thank you, sir. Next up. Brian Keller, her taking on Journey Newson. You talked about Juicy Jay, always being an underdog in betting situation. I don't have the exact numbers, but Brian Kelleher, majority of the time in his UFC career has been the underdog, though he does win as a favorite.

Either way, I just have no interest in betting this fight. Like, I just don't. Like, how can I trust Journey Neuson with my money? How can I trust Brian Kelleher at chalk odds? I just passed. I just, that's a lot of passes for me on this card. I see a lot of passes for you today. Bear with me just one moment, and I may end up editing this out, because you asked a very important question.

And I want to make sure that, because I have something written down, I want to make sure that I'm right is right. So you just asked a question. You said, how can I trust Brian Kelleher, chalk odds? What if I told you this? He's only ever lost once. Yeah, yeah. He's only ever lost once as a favorite. And that was just saying it was to Marlon Cheats.

Guy's pretty good. I don't know if you know that about Chito, pretty good guy. Can we go back and like reminisce on the fact that Brian Keller was minus like 220 to Marlon Chito Vera? Yeah, that was a, uh, in hindsight, that looks a little odd. I got to tell you. So tell me, are you on Brian Keller here? I want to tell you one more statistical note that I took advantage of here because I am Brian Keller. I'm going to take it. Let's go.

Let's go. Okay. Journey Newsome has never beaten anyone with a win. in the UFC. He has two wins in the UFC. One of them's no contest, but he won the fight, got overturned for something afterwards.

Beat Domingo Pilarte. Domingo Pilarte, no victories inside the UFC. He's got a win over Fernie Garcia. Also, no victories inside the UFC. I'm not sure he's very good, happy. So Brian Kelleherry's getting a little older, but he's still a pretty solid all-around fighter.

This is a major step back for him. against the Mario Batista, Umar, Narmulamikam Medovs of the world. This is much more in the Domingo Polarte, the Kevin Krum zone. And the man, the man wins as a favorite. I do not believe Journey Newsom is the next Marlon Chito Vera. So I'm back in Kelleher, minus 140. Let's go, boom. I don't mind that.

The more you talk, the more I, uh, I don't mind that. Will I play it? I don't know. You know, it's, you've, you're, you're, back on the winning track, no need to get out, no need to overexpose yourself to and potentially slow this momentum you're building. Speaking of no need to overextend, let's get into the final fight. Another women's bantamweight out, Haley Cowan taking on Jamie Lynn Horth. Right now, Jamie Lynn Horth continues to fall in odds minus 1 40, minus 1 35, opened at,

Bet Online at plus 175 has continued to drop. A lot of people on her. I'm looking at the bet MMA tips page. A lot of people. A lot of people that are, according to this website, pretty sharp, are on Jamie Lynn Horth here. I don't know if it's a fate of Haley Cowan. But heavy line movement for Jamie Lynn Horth. I am not a thousand percent sure why.

There's only two fights of tape that I could find on her. She's fought one time in the last 40 months over three years, coming off a massive knee injury. She's up a weight class. But also Haley Cowan, I mean, I couldn't. I don't want to trust my money with her. I mean, she can't even make it to the octagon these last few fights. One of those wasn't her fault.

Another one where this is just a pass for me, just a pass. Yeah, all day. I was going to say. I was going to say, if you have a bet, please tell me your edge. If you had a bet, I was going to be like, please tell me your edge. I briefly considered doing a double women's banam weight over parlay. Just because in general, women's band and weight fights tend to hit overs. But that I already have one dumb gimmick parlay.

I didn't need to. Okay. So I am going to take the Quinlan Waters fight does not go to a decision when that line comes out and parlay it with something else. I'm between Cowan Lynn Horth over one and a half, which is minus 370, and Simone's song over one and a half, minus 270. Keep in mind the double over exposure there. I would take the song, but I recognize that you're trying to limit your double exposure.

So you just have to let the ancestors guide you on that one. You said song, I think I will end up taking that. Because that's, as we were going through, I've got that bet. I want to have that using to be used in a parlay. And I couldn't find any other piece that I was really excited about. So I've decided, Connor, as we wrap things up, I'm going to parlay this with one other bet this weekend. And it's not even a fight-related bet because this weekend, Connor Berks, it's the NFL draft. I love the NFL draft.

I have been aggressively consuming draft content. And while I'm going to end up making a ton of unreasonable wagers on the NFL draft, one of them that I actually totally love is a total number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round. The over under is at four and a half. And the over is minus 155. And good sir, I am going to be smashing that in the parlay with the over one and a half that we've created for a plus 131 bet. We're getting five quarterbacks drafted. It's the NFL.

Teams love to overvalue quarterbacks. Hinden Hooker is going to go to the Vikings. It's going to be fantastic, unless you're a Vikings fan, then it's going to suck shit. All right. There it is. Got a little draft talk in there as well.

A little draft talk. I'm surprised. Who are the Falcon's stake? Can anybody know? It depends. There's possible Bijon Robinson, but they're too late, and they're not going to move up,

so we'll see how it falls. I would have loved as we sign off I would have loved to bet and or talk about betting the BKFC this weekend but can't do that as far as I can see right now

Yeah, I got no lines for it as well right now I'm sure they're going to drop them like later in the week they typically do um who would you take by the way any any liens here you want to give out

because I have no clue Oh for sure I want to see what the price is on Mike Perry because Luke Crockold's not a good boxer anyway. He's going to have some size advantage for Mike Perry's a dog. Mike Perry doesn't care at all. Mike Perry is going to come in and chuck them. I want to see what the price is,

but I am very interested in betting Mike Perry this weekend if the number is good. Chad Mendez, Eddie Alvarez, too, Ben Rothwell on the card. Fantastic. The thing is, I don't really know how to bet that one, but just because I really have no idea how to even feel about that one. one but yeah give me uh for sure give me mike perry if that number is even sort of good wow wow wow look at this what do we got must see tv tomorrow afternoon on the mma hour wednesday april twenty six mike perry luke rock hold face to face live on the show virtual face to face look at

man it's going to be electric oh my goodness i see the the opening guest tomorrow i can't spoil it here. Yes. Don't spoil it. I know who it is. I actually can spoil it because this will not be up. Yes, you can. The show will already be going, but the man himself.

Yeah, it was a big get. It was a big get. We were real excited to hear that once we got Salt Poppy confirmed. I mean, it's all downhill from here at this point. It doesn't get much better than that. Leading the show off with him is a bold strategy. Yeah, I'm about the deep dive on his socials. You know, really trying to find out about the guy, see if we can get some crazy questions in there.

I love it. I love it. The man. Well, you get to work on that. I'll get to work on all the other stuff that's going on. Sounds good. Clean, green, just under an hour. That's UFC Vegas 72.

The card of the century. We're back next week. One championship. Canelo Alvarez. UFC 288. It actually doesn't get much better than that. See you next week. Love y'all.

Thank you.