MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Teach A Man To Gamble On UFC Austin And He’ll Bet For A Lifetime

Episode Date: June 15, 2022

With Conner Burks still on Holiday, host Jed Meshew is joined this week by notorious anti-gambler Alexander K. Lee to try and show him why betting on MMA is so fun. Jed teaches Alex the difference between Value Bets and Vibes Bets ... and gets "The Prince of Positivity" to place a number of bets on UFC Austin. Follow Alexander K. Lee: @AlexanderKLee Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-by journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back. It is no bets, Bard. I'm your host Jed Mishu, and if you hear something in the background, my landscapers have picked the worst possible time to decide to beautify my house.

But it's okay, because I'm here to beautify your lives with an esteemed colleague of mine. We're going to get to him in just a second because it needs to be said right out of the gate. Again, my co-host, Connor Berks, is not joining us this week. He is still galivanting around the globe. He's in Paris. He's all over the map. He's producing bits. for the MMA hour while he's abroad because the man doesn't know how to stop working.

But I've once again got an excellent person to fill in for him. And we're going to do something very, very different today. And I'm really excited about it. Because last week was a difficult week in some ways. I finished up. I know Connor finished a little bit down in his units. But I almost had a catastrophe because, as you know, listeners, I bet it all on Valentina Shibchenko.

So every penny in the bank account was thrust upon her. And it almost, almost was a catastrophe. It was very, very close to me losing my shirt and needing to podcast for food. Fortunately, the judges were correct. But I decided that the best thing we could do in this circumstance is remind ourselves why we like to gamble. Because when you're sweating it out like that, you think I should have never done this. And so instead I've brought to this to this fine established podcast. cast a man who doesn't gamble, a man who is so firmly opposed to betting on mixed martial arts

that he tells you every chance he possibly can get, don't bet on MMA. And so I thought today, what if we can teach a man to gamble and then he will gamble for a lifetime? So joining me today for No Bet's Bard, my colleague at MMAFighting.com, Mr. Alexander K. Lee, AK, how you doing? Yes, you've truly brought on the perfect man to a show called No Betts Barred. a man who you're right. My mantra is don't bet on MMA.

I have many mantras. MMA souls be fun, most importantly, which I don't consider betting to be a part of normally. And thus that, you know, one relates to the other. That said, I wish we'd done this last week, Jed, because in anticipation of being on the show, you know, we plan these things ahead of time. In anticipation of being on the show, I did bet on USC 275. Did you really? I did. Oh my goodness.

I waited, I made a Draft King's account. I waited until Friday. I wanted to tell you, but I thought it would be so much better a surprise. I'm like, no, I need to surprise. I told Mike, I think Mike's the only one I told. Was it Mike? Anyway, I told someone. Oh, this is the best surprise.

Yes, yes. This is a fine way to open the show. I wanted to, and then I waited until Friday to really place a bet because I wanted to wait for your gambling column. Because I'm like, okay, this guy, like, this guy knows what he's taught. He's a very wealthy man. much of which has come through gambling. So he can't lead me wrong. So I said, I'm going to go with the parlay.

The parley, which was, you know, J. Chickic. Well, I should go in order of how, actually, I guess none of them, I don't think any parts of the parlay hit, not that it mattered. The first part already died. It was Yohanna and Zhang going to a decision, which I think we were all pretty confident about. So that's the first leg of the parlay immediately died. The second of the part was, I think, Tashara and Parachca not going to a decision.

Which did hit. And then the other part was Valentino Shibchenko, which also hit. It was sweats all the way down. But I hit two through two thirds of the parley. So I didn't have to sweat the parlay because the parley died immediately. So I was like, okay. And I only put, by the way, I just learned what a unit is today. Okay.

Okay. This is why we're here. Is there less than a unit, though? Like if I say $20, did you say, well, I bet point two of a unit or you just say $20? Well, that depends on unit is, unit is dependent upon on the gambler. So unit should just be whatever your standard betting, your standard bet line is. I was told 100 is like the standard. Well, that is just the standard for talking about gambling because everything works easier from, from American gambling lines, right?

So lines are plus 180. You lay 100, you win 180. So the standard is just 100. But the reason you use units is because it can be. hey, if, you know, you don't have a thousand dollars to a bank account to just gamble with, your units can be five bucks. Okay. And it's set in incremental.

I'm just going to say the money because it's funnier. So, so again, this was just for the sake of the show. I didn't, I wasn't trying to make money. I don't gamble to, I know a lot of people gamble because it makes the cars, you know, just a little more interesting, especially with a UFC card every week. It's a struggle sometimes for fans to get invested. So if you can sprinkle, you know, five, 10, 20 bucks on there somewhere, it's a, it's more interesting it's more interesting it's just yeah if you have a long parlay or you're one else

people you just parley like all 10 fights and you just put like five dollars and you know if you get all the moon you shoot the moon who knows and it's like five dollars who cares you get all 10 and you get all 10 fights wait guess what you made like a few hundred bucks or maybe a thousand i don't know again i know gambling works so uh i just put $25 down 25 down in the parlay which would have paid i honestly can't i should look i can look at it now um which would have paid how do these things it was i think marginally plus money marginally so i think i think it would have paid like 30. Okay.

30. I don't remember. I'm rough chop my head at the line. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. It was definitely something like that. Yeah.

So then to make up for it, I'm like, well, I don't, I like, it hurt. It hurt me. It hurt me. It hurt me. That's the point. Because I like to parley so much. I'm like, I was led us straight. And by the way, it was only after I put down the parley bed.

I think you and I had a conversation online. And you were like, oh, don't put the parley. I never get those right. And I was like, damn it. Damn it. Yeah. My, I don't ever bet parley. In my personal gambling life, but people love parles.

Yeah. And so you have to throw them out there because people want them. And so you got to give the people parley. They look so fun. They are. And that's it. They are fun. Parles are not a winning bet. Parleys are where Vegas makes its money.

Is that right? But I mean, it is the trick about parley's is they actually don't add any extra value. So they look like they're giving you tremendous extra value. but really if you just if you break down the parlays into its component pieces it's functionally the same as you know so you have a two-legged parlay and it parlays together for slightly plus money it's actually the same as if you made two separate bets but rolled in a successful bet into the second bet so you know if you make the chevchenko bet lost me on rolled in so it lost it's instead of making two individual bets

the odds work out the same if so we have a two-leg parlay with valentina shavchenko wins and Glover to share a year, he doesn't go the distance. When Valentina Shevchenko wins, if I place a bet on that, and then I take the same money I bet on that plus the money I made from that successful bet and then wager it on the second leg of the parlay, then I get the same total payout. This is a thing? Every parlay works that way. And so parleys look like they are really enticing and giving you a lot of extra juice,

but the additional value, quote unquote, you're getting is already baked into the price you're paying. So it is, it's, it is a trick that Vegas uses to convince you to bet money. Well, they got me. So you're saying the smart thing to do. They get everybody with it. But I apologize to everyone who was like an experienced like knowledgeable gambler who was having to listen to this conversation. This is all new to this. No, that's what I want you here. So if so really I should have waited for the bet on, uh, Yachik, Zhang going to a decision and then waited to see, wait to see if that hit. And then if that hit, then I could have, then I could have, then I could have, then I would

have rolled that into the next part of the theoretical parlay. You can, or you can just bet the parlay because it's much more convenient. And so the only times that I ever like really think of doing like support parleyes is it's just, it's just a way more convenient way to to tie in bets together. And I also, and we'll get into this because I, I want to teach you all the fun. I want you to enjoy and accept Cambodon into your heart. but you're going to because here's the deal the thing that is fun about parley's that i find fun or the way i use them to to have fun is i use parley's with non-value bets and what i mean

by that is i break gambling down into two two categories you can either bet you can do value bets or you can do vibe bets and vi we're gonna i'm gonna i got different bits for you with both of these things later. So I'm excited about it. But value bet is a very simple math problem. Like, all right, I think the odds of this happening are X. The odds, the suggested odds based on the, the odds are why. If those numbers don't match up, here's the value.

I'm going to bet on the value. I use in my personal life, when I do choose to parlay, I parlay even value bets. So if a bet, if I think a bet, if I think a, bet has clean value on it. So it's like, hey, I think that Valentina Shavchenko should be a minus 1,000 favorite. She's only a minus 600. There's obviously points of value there. You should just bet that straight. There's no need to parlay it together. But if I say, you know, I think Valentina Shavchenko should be a minus 1,000 favorite and she's a minus 1,000 favorite, there's no point in betting on that. That's a net, net break-even bet. But I can, because it's

more fun to have action down on multiple bets so you have investment of the card, I can take any of those bets that are like that where I think the odds are correct. And I just parley them all together because then I get to have action on fights and it breaks even overtime money-wise. Okay. So that's the only way I think that parley's makes sense from an MMA gambling standpoint, but you have to acknowledge that they're fun as hell. Yeah.

And so that's what we're here for. And this one seems safe. This one seemed very logical and safe And like you said And that's how Vegas wins So anyway So I lose my So like

For any of those keeping track home I'm down 25 Then I remember Then I remember Jed Michoud also telling me You just You can't go wrong With betting on Valentina Shepchenko

You just You can't You said you can't You can't You can't And then I said Okay well I just want to get my $25 back So at the time

I bet it I should check This is the gamblers problem Yeah, yeah. I'm just going to get my money back. So by the time, I guess this was Friday. Oh, this was on Saturday night because this was when the card was happening. She was minus 630 at the time, around the time the main car was, I guess, before her fight came on. She was minus 630. And I'm like, oh, and you have to, I had to bet a lot to get it back.

You do. Or at least true. So I'm like, okay, what's a nice round number? And it's like, I ended up like 500 Canadian, 500 bucks Canadian, which is. Which is, which I realize now is a terrible number because it's a lot of money. And again, like I said, it's not winning me much if I win. It's just getting me plus. But if you're walking down the street and you see a $20 bill, you're not going to walk past it.

And that's what Valentina Shepchenko is supposed to be. But exactly. It's guaranteed 20. Instead, I was walking down the street and I felt like $500. Like I knew I had $500, but like in a pocket that had a hole in it. And I'm like, oh, boy, I hope I can make it to the bank before the $500 falls out. That's what I was like watching that fight. So it made the fight so unenjoyable to watch.

It was horrible. I didn't even feel better when it, like, she won. And I was pretty confident. When I heard that 49-46, I was like, thank God, because that can't be a Tosanto score. So I won that. And then, because now I'm suddenly up in the money technically. So I ended up winning 70, like just under $80, $500. And I won just under $80.

Yay. And then I'm like, oh, well, I think Glover's going to win. So I threw $20 in Glover. And he was a plus $1.75 at the time. That was very close to cashing out. I rolled it. So you still ended up plus. Did I roll a bet into something?

No, because you would have had to put the 500, you also bet on Valentina. Oh. Oh. You just bet you just bet with your profits, which is what's great. Yes. So you had a plus night. I did. You were a successful.

20 on Glover, he lost. I ended up with the net gain of $34 and 36 cents Canadian. And all you had to do was sweat for like 25 minutes. It wasn't worth it. It wasn't worth it. We talked about it. I don't remember if we were on the post show or if it was just us talking outside of it. That, you and I had very different reactions because, as everyone knows, I had so much money tied up into Valentina.

Like, I had an absurd amount of money. And when they read 49-46, I had a mild heart attack because I was like, I just didn't think that there was a world where the judges wouldn't have given. and Santos two of those rounds. Even though I, especially out upon rewatch, I think that's a more obvious or a more acceptable score. I was just like, there's just no world. They didn't give two rounds.

Oh my goodness. So you thought she got like all the first three, like all the first three and then somehow one of the last two like, yeah. Yeah, I was like I had and because I always, Buffer usually stands behind the person who won. Is that true? When he's doing the call out. I think more often than not yet.

He has in recent, recent outings, it's been a little more 50-50, but there was a stretch there where he basically, you just knew who won because he would stand behind them. So I was in deep sweats for that. But then it all paid off and everything's great. How can you say that? I only bet $500 and I hated it. Again, this is new to me. And I did not feel the thrill. I've done like very light gambling on like football like a long time ago when I was younger.

and that I kind of enjoyed. But by the end of it, I overall, I didn't love the experience. So like, I guess I was kind of like, I'm never really, I don't, when I started really diving deep into MMA, I was like, I don't think I want to bet on this. And I think I did once or twice. And again, it felt mostly indifferent. This just felt bad. This is, I didn't enjoy it.

There is a big part of that is one, I think you would have enjoyed it more had Glover won. Of course. Because there is a very different feeling to betting a lot of money on a, favorite and then sweating it. Like, sweats are not good wins. Even I don't feel great about the Valentina thing because it was clearly not the best bet I've ever made.

It just cashed. So that's okay. But like it's when you hit the underdog bet or a closer line bet and it's not for an absurd amount of money, it makes you feel it's happy. And especially, and here's where I want to move us right into this because we've done a lot of preamble. We should at least talk about UFC Austin because. There was a reason I brought you on for this card.

It is an excellent, excellent card. It's arguably better than the pay-per-view from top to bottom last week. But there are 14 fights on this card. And anyone who listens to anything else on the MMA Fighting Network, great website, go check it out. Go check out our podcast feed. Anyone else who's listening to that knows 14 fights is too many fights as far as I'm concerned. UFC 275, at least it was headlined by three really marquee. matchups and so the rest of it kind of didn't matter.

But this one, they're top to bottom. Awesome fights all up and down the card. So we're going to, if you're listening, don't worry, we are going to talk about all the big fights. I have bets. I have Conner's bets with me so I can provide them for everybody. But I want to start here with you, AK, because part of the fun of gambling is making a fight that you otherwise don't care about, interesting.

And so I want to start, instead of starting at the top with Calais, when catered Josh Emmett or the Donald Serony Joe Lozahn or any of the fights that are really fun and good. What fight on this card has no interest to you whatsoever? If you could cut one of these fights, what would the fight be?

Oh, wow. I'm the Prince of Positivity. How can you ask me to make a call like that? Because that's what happens here. You've got to make tough decisions. And of the 14 fights on this card where most people have Wikipedia pages, which is a rarity on a, fight night these days.

I know exactly the fight that I would say is the one that's least interesting to me. I think I know what you're going to say, but I have a reason why that fight is interesting. Okay. Well, but we're not here for me because we're here for you. So what is the fight you think? If you had, if you got

to cut one, you know, just make this little shorter. If one of these had to fall off in the next couple of days, which one would you want it to be? I like all these fights. Okay, I will say I will default. There's no way you like all 14 of these fights. There's four middleweight fights on this card.

Sure are. And many of those dudes have fought each other. It has been well documented that middleweight, middleweight is one of the strangest divisions in, in MMA. It's just, it's never been as sexy as Welterweight. It's a very middle, middle division. It's really, it's right there in the name.

It's never had that, outside of Anderson Silva, I guess, Chelsona too, never had that marquee value of light heavyweight, you know what I mean? So it's right in that weird spot. And people know what you mean when you say, boy, this is a middleweighty, middleweight fight. Because there's just these like three round kind of nothing, neither fighter asserting themselves. They're mixing the martial arts, but not in a particularly compelling way. I think that might happen with Phil Haas and Duranwin.

I think there's a distinct possibility that that happens. So I think Philhaz has looked good. Darien is a great wrestler. But boy, this could be this could be mucky. Oh, and this fight's going to be a misery, but I'm glad you picked it because both Connor and I have action down in this fight. But now the important part is to get you action down on this fight. Because if this is the fight that is the least interesting to you, how can we spice up a fight while we put 20 bucks on it? And then we are invested.

We are invested in an outcome one way or another. And so let's just take a look at Phil, Phil Haas-Duron-win. Off the top of your head, who are you favoring to win? And, you know, just give me a ballpark. How many times out of 10 do you think X-Fiter would win? Let me say, by the way, I am looking at the odds right now. That's fine. I've done my real.

Okay. Totally fine. But disregarding the odds, out of 10, who would I pick to win? I'll go, I would give like a slight. edge to Phil Haas like six out of ten. It's three out of five. Okay, a slight edge to Phil Hawes. So going six out of ten.

That's, um, that here's how we're going to make. This is really easy. We don't have to dig too deep into this because Philhaws is currently a minus 260 favorite over Doron win. I don't like that. That implies a 72.2, uh, win percentage or win probability. So based on your reading of the situation, kind of where you think this is at, there is implicit value on Duran win at plus 210, which is, again, a 32% win probability.

So if you think he's 40%, we're going to have you bet on that. We're going to take a, if you don't bet, I'll bet it for you, but we're just going to keep track of it. Okay. And ride the ponies and see if you can feel inspired when Duran Win pulls off a major upset, because this is the easiest and smartest and simplest way to make bets. Now, it all depends on you being good at predicting fights or at least understanding being good at setting ranges. And so for the listeners at home, I would recommend that you bake in a little bit of a cushion there. So if Duran wins at 32%. If A.K. said, well, I think he's a 34% to win this.

I'd say that's close enough to being on odds, especially given a plus minus of 5%. You might not be great. But thinks he's 40% to win this fight. there's some value there. We're going to take Duran win. Unfortunately, A.K., other people disagree with you. And those other people are both Connor Berks and myself. So Connor Berks was kind enough to give me his bets while he's abroad.

He has Phil Hawes in a parlay with Kevin Holland. We'll talk about that fight in a little bit. Okay. And I also have Phil Hawes as a parlay piece. I will talk about my parlias at the very end because I've done something very, very stupid because without Connor to keep me grounded, I'm just doing a lot of dumb things the last couple of weeks.

Great for the listeners, though. You know, it's all about the content. And my main thought on this fight is just that I think Duran Wynn is very, very small. He's a very small man. So it's hard for me to pick him against a really strong, really powerful, much bigger athlete who's a very good wrestler. Like, he's proven to be a pretty solid defensive wrestler.

So, I mean, it could happen. But I'm backing a lot of chalk and a lot of favorites this week. Okay. I'm filling out a theoretical bet slip right now, just for the record. I am playing out there and putting a little few dollars on there just to see what it looks like. I mean, it's just, just try it just for a minute, just to see how it feels. and it's all about vibes that's what we're doing here

and so on to our next the next bit I have for you before we get into anything further we've established what fight the least compelling the least interested who is your favorite fighter competing this weekend all 14 fighters

who is your favorite one who's the guy that you would say or girl that you would say I am the most interested in this competitor seeing you know whether they've improved X Y or Z individual fighter not fight. Oh, interesting.

Okay, because this would have to do with the fight. Just the fighter? I mean, I think I would just go with the main event. And I like the fight itself, but I am super compelled by like what we have seen, what we saw from Calvin Cater and that sort of bounced back, you know, year off performance. And I want to know, did he kind of just take advantage of, you know, of an overconfident Giga Chikaze?

or was a combination of both Giga was overconfident Calam Cater vastly improved because Cater I feel like I've certainly put a ceiling on him I feel like he's like not going to be a I don't know if he I've said like I think if I had to choose I don't think he ever quite

makes it to a world title shot but I'm happy to be proven wrong I'm happy to be proven wrong and if he schools Josh Emmett like he did Giga then completely changes the conversation for me so a lot of fun names on here but I am most looking forward

to seeing how Calvin Cater performs Well, that's interesting because I'm in the same boat. I think I don't remember if it was a BTL or a preview show. I think I said definitively that Calvin Cater would never challenge for a title that he had reached his peak and that Kigachate was going to kick him to death. And nobody was that wrong. And our colleague, Mike Heck, was quick to let me know that I was wrong. And I underestimated greatly Calvin Cater. And so, and similarly, I'm very interested in this Josh Emmett fight.

So here's what we're going to do. The second way, people have fun gambling, they just bet on their favorite fighters. They just say, hey, this is the guy I like the most. I just want to bet on. This is a vibes bet. It has nothing to do with math or breaking down a, you know, what's good, what's bad, where the technique is. Sure, Josh Schmidt can wrestle a lot and hits really hard, but none of that matters, because we're betting vibes right now. And the vibe is that Calvin Cater's dope.

And so our next bet on this little ticket we're putting together, it's just kind of. Calvin Cater bet. Just bet straight on Calvin Cater. And you know what, AK, you're in good company because my colleague, your colleague, Connor Berks, he has a straight bet on Calvin Cater. He got him at minus 170. Obviously, that line has moved a lot. The line is now down to minus 235. For the math people at home, that's a 79.1% win probability for Cater. But Cater is 5'0 as a favorite. He has never lost a favorite. Vegas has a really good understanding of where he, where he, where he excels where he fails because his underdog run

he's won a couple but he's lost several but the comeback to that point Josh Emmett five and one as an underdog so he's cashing a lot of underdog tickets but I do you bet vibes this is a vibes bet we're here for vibes we're on cater for this second

this second part of the ticket it's great I individually am staying away from this fight I think if I were to bet I would bet on Calvin Cater, but this is one of those where I think the odds are either close to correct or maybe a little bit, a little bit off, but I don't feel like putting underdog juice on Josh Emmett. So we've got two bets down. Okay, I have two bets. I have Darren win on my slip and I have Calvin Cater on my slip. That is absolutely correct. And now, and now we're doing the third because this is just three bets. We don't, we don't want to overload you with bets,

but we want to make sure that you get some action. I'm already feeling overwhelmed. That's why we're keeping it to three. And the third one, the third and arguably the most important question, what fight is the most compelling, the one that you most want to see this weekend of the 14 fights on UFC Austin? What is the one that has you saying? That's not, maybe not the main event, but it is, it's my main event. It's the people's main event. I am so excited for Julian Marquez versus Gregor Rodriguez. This is perfect matchmaking.

And this is the good kind of middleweight muckiness that I like to see. This is like the potential for chaos. I think both guys are on the more exciting end of the 185 pound roster. And I think if you put them together, again, that's why I love the matchup. I'm a big fan of Gregor Rodriguez. I actually think he's kind of a sleeper at 185. Like legitimately could be, if he strings to hear the right wins, a top five guy. And I'm sure people think I'm crazy.

but I just feel very strongly about him. I love that. I mean, listen, I like his guy. He's got great Jiu-Jitsu, but also, since he's coming to the UFC, is just slugging it out with people, which is amazing. He's just a brawler, man. I love that. I love that. Hopefully he doesn't go, like, I'd like to see him mix in, start mixing in the, I'm sorry to say this.

I would like to see him start mixing. No, what I'm saying, Jen is I want to see him mix the martial arts less and go away from the striking and just go back to the Jitsu. I'm sorry. That is what I mean. Yeah, not mixing. That is my. Unmix. Yeah, stop mixing them. Get rid of it. Get at striking out of there. I know it's exciting. He's got, he's got great knockout power, but get back to Justin. And a pretty damn good chin, too. He does. Because he's getting himself into wars and coming out on top. This could be another one. I mean, this really could be another one. So that's great. Now, now we know the third fight we need to put a bet down on. And it's just finding the right bet. And so, I mean, let's start here. Give me your ballpark where what do you say odds are? for who to win.

You know, how would you give me the out of 10 percentage? How many times out of 10 would, would Gregory Rodriguez or Julian Marquez win? I think, I call him Julian. Julian. Sorry. I think Gregory Rodriguez beats him seven out of 10 times. Seven out of 10 times. I thought about that.

That is a confident feeling. Yeah. Okay. The problem here is that Gregory Rodriguez is a minus 200 favorite. that's 66.7%. You know, that's that number. That's a pretty tight line. It's pretty close to value.

You could make the bet, and it's not a bet. My other, we talked about my parley feelings earlier. My other stance on parley's is anything that's over minus 200, minus 250 maybe is about the cap. Then I'll just use as a parley piece largely because at that point, the number's so high. Screw it. Just throw it on a parlay and have fun. So, but that's probably not our best bet for you here. year just because it's so close to the line.

So let's dig in. Let's figure some other things out. How do you tell me how you see this fight playing out. What do you think is the most likely outcome how things might go? Rodriguez by club and sub submission. Love love that. What do we think? First round, second round.

Second round. Okay. So in this instance, this is the fight. This is your fight. It's your baby. you want to get involved. Let's figure out what are prop bets looking at. So the first thing you said is clubbens up.

We're going to start there because I love that bet. I love a submission bet for Gregory Rodriguez because I guess I should go out, go ahead and say, both Connor Berks and I are in agreement. Connor has Gregory Rodriguez straight. He got him early at minus 150. I am also taking Gregory Rodriguez currently. As we said, the line is minus 200. I still think that that is a valuable line, basically because Julia Marquez.

is actually not that great a defensive wrestler and I think that while Gregory Rodriguez could successfully brawl it out with Julian Marquez I think he is still willing to grapple when the occasion presents himself I think he's going to be a little smarter he's going to take Julian down

and on the ground this is a BJJ world champion like he is he is going to hustle Julian Marquez so I'm taking Gregory Rodriguez but I also have a small prop bet down now Gregory Rodriguez by submission is plus 350. It's a pretty good, tasty line. 350 is a high payout.

It's a 22% win probability functionally. And the reason I think that number is as high as it is for a world champion is because what you've talked about, we've seen Rodriguez get into brawls. And Julian Marquez, pretty sure, has never been submitted. So it'd be a bit of a first,

but I think we can just go right there. We're going to close out your betting card for this week with a prop bet on Gregory Rodriguez by submission. Now, if you're on Draft Kings, that number, that line isn't up yet. Okay, that's going to say, I was like, I cannot find this. Okay, okay. Yeah, uh, Draft Kings. So the main event should have prop bets up for it because they're usually quick with that.

Yeah. Draft Kings tends to drop, uh, to put all their other bets down, all their prop bets tend to drop Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, depending how quick they get them out. That is before, that is, uh, after we are recording this podcast. It is after we were recording. I did notice, by the way, I've been checking the site today in anticipation of this one. And just now they have actually started putting up props for some of the higher level fights. So, yeah, I think you're right.

It is starting to go up. They usually go main event down to the main event. We'll usually have them up on even Monday, you know, kind of fight week, or at least some of them, and they'll add more through the day. And they kind of work their way down. But as of now, my theoretical slip would have Darren Wynn to win, Calvin Cater to win, Gregory Rodriguez to win, and Greg. Gregory Rodriguez to win by submission. Did you say, you specified round too? No, no, we didn't do a round because we didn't need to because the prop is there.

So I don't think we, I think that we don't need anything more from you unless as we're talking through some stuff, you say, you know, Jed, you're making great arguments. I agree with you. Or you're just feeling because then from the rest of this, we got a bunch of good head picks. We got some solid vibe picks. And we got the action down in the places we wanted the action to be with our favorite fighter, our least favorite fight, our favorite fight. That's how you spice up a card that I'll be honest. This week actually doesn't need that much spicing up. It's a great card top to bottom.

But look, a little extra seasoning never hurt anybody, you know, and that's what this is all about. So we have now given you a betting slip. And now I want to talk to you about some of my bets. And let's see if maybe we can convince you, convince you to jump on board. There's a name I'm hoping to hear in your bets, but if you don't, I'll bring it up after. I have bets on a lot of people on this card, actually. And part of the reason I wanted to do it this way and with you is because looking ahead at this card, I don't have a lot of interesting things to say about most of the fights on it. Actually, I'm going with a lot of chalk, a lot of heavy favorites because I think the favorites are favorites for a reason.

But let's hop in because we talked about the main event, and I told you specifically that I don't, I just don't feel. good about a bet anywhere and so I'm out of that but I feel so very very good about the co-main event because a.k. Joe Lozahn Joe Lozon is going to do the damn thing here and I I believe it with all my heart and all my soul Joe Lozon taking on Donald Seroni in the co-main event this fight was originally booked a month back I don't remember exactly the timeline yeah UFC 274 yeah yeah UFC 274 and And I remember talking with Connor about it. I remember talking with Mike about it at various points in time.

And maybe we just had an interim discussion we were talking about it. But as of this morning, Joe Lozahn is plus 145. At 274, he's plus 150. So that line hasn't really changed substantially. I think that's great value. It's a 40% win probability. I think this is at least a 50-50 fight between him and Donald Soroni. Yes, Soroni has more names on the resume.

has had a more accomplished career in the sport, succeeded at welterweight and at lightweight. But one, I think the style matchup is tremendous for Lozon. Soroni is notoriously a slow starter. Joe Lozahn is notoriously a fast starter. He wins in the first round, or he loses is largely how his career has broken down. He is going to come storming.

Yes, both men are old and a little washed. I'm not here to say they're not. But I think Donald Seroni is all the way cooked at this juncture. just fought simply too much against too high opposition, taking too many beatings, I think he's cooked. And Joe Lozahn, he's a little washed, but he's had a long layoff. This didn't work for me last week with Yohanning on J-Chic. It did not. And I got convinced by people that she was going to have two years off and come back and looking better, and she did not.

But I still think it's going to be the case with Lozahn. He is so pumped about this fight. This is the fight he is so interested in, and the style is so good. I'm taking Joe Lozahn at plus 1,45 under all odds, and I also have a prop bet on Joe Lozahn in round one because that pays out at plus 700. Now, a month ago, that was paying plus 800, so I think the books have figured out that line's a little aggressive,

but plus 700, I'm all in on it. I think this, I'm not all in in in the way I was all in on Valentina Shavchenko, but I love both of those bets, and that is where I'm at. That was Lozahn to win by finish in round one. Correct. To win in the first round. Just to win in the first round. Okay.

I see it because I see a full set of... You can only win by finish in the first round. Yes. I meant to say knockout or submission, but I see a full lineup of props on track kings right now. Oh, does that fight get props added to it? Yes. They don't have, I don't think they have just finished, though. I think you have to say knockout or submission.

Oh, no. Or they haven't just, they haven't put, they haven't put it up yet. I just say, I'm sorry. It should be under fight parlays is usually where it is. I will say, oh yeah, they're racing. I will say if you, do you feel, do you feel, knock, do you feel strongly about knockout or submission? Knockout, right? You would say knockout.

Knockout seems more likely, but I, club and sub is just such, I think also an opportunity. But I think, I think knockout is the most, the most likely. So if you're trying to go, and if you read the gambling column later this week, you may see in there. My long shot of the week may in fact be Jolo's on by first round K.O. Because I'm not looking at the odds right now because I haven't seen them yet. But I suspect that that is going to be upwards of four figures. It's going to be plus 1,200 or yeah, 1200 something like that. It is plus 1,000.

Oh, that's a little lower than I would have thought. But honestly, it's still probably going to be the bet just because I do think that's the most likely outcome is that he he gets it done in the first. If he's going to win, I think it's going to be by K.O. And I think it's going to be really early. And so that's kind of where I'm feeling right now for him. Does that convince you to take a wager? Do you know how many times Donald's run has been submitted in his career? Off the top of my head?

Has he ever been submitted? Yes. I can't think of, especially this recent run of him just. getting blasted so it was a very disappointing it was a very exciting matchup that ended wait did bindo choke him in w-d-c yeah yeah yeah super tight guilds very quickly their second fight yes that's the old first fight yeah was really good yeah that is the only time that he's ever been submitted yeah i mean the dude can grapple uh and his his head is much weaker than his grappling defense is at this juncture.

And so, yeah, I'm, I think later for the gambling column this week, like I said, probably going to be Lozahn by K around one for the long shot. Because I think that that's certainly plausible. I won't say it's the most likely outcome. But I think it's far more likely than the odds are suggesting. That is more exciting to me. You're asking what I place on just Joe LaZon by first, first round finish. I back, no, I need that extra, need that extra juice.

Yeah, get that extra juice. It's all about, and look, and I'll tell you what, when you hit one of those, who, buddy, is that the most exciting thing? Molly McCann's COO this year, one of the best COs of the year, unbelievable. But I had a bet on McCann by T.K.O. or COO in round three at plus 3,400. And that, that is really unbelievable. Caching a plus 3,400 bet is a good, good feeling. So maybe take a gamble.

Maybe take a wager here, okay? If you're feeling, I don't want to impress upon you. That is, this is all about getting you acclimated to the idea of gambling. I want to, I want to let you have the fun that the rest of us all have. Because I was definitely doing it wrong last week. Like, I mean, I came out ahead just, I don't know, by the, by the grace of Valentina, I came out ahead. But I did not enjoy it. But I also don't know I wasn't doing it.

You never doing it wrong when you bet on Valentina Shibchenko. That's my firm belief in life. Yes. And well, now I don't know how strongly I stand by that. You know, everybody has a scare every now and again, but you're right. I'm probably not going all in again for some time, at least not on Valentina, because that one, that one took years off my life. But I can only imagine. It was a tough one.

But, okay, we're moving on. We're going to go to the next fight that I have or that we, that we. I feel we should talk about. And it's the next fight down on the card. It's Tim Means versus Kevin Holland. Again, now we're into this section of the card, though, where I honestly don't have a lot of interesting things to say. I've got a lot of bets now.

Connor's giving me a lot of bets. But I don't feel some of the bets Connor's given me. I don't feel like I have a good enough read on the situation to feel comfortable with the bet he's making. So, well, maybe you can convince us otherwise. But for this one, both Connor and I have Kevin Holland as parlay pieces. and I can't speak for what Connor's seeing here, but for me, this one pretty simply boils down to. Tim means a really good fighter.

He's actually still doing well for himself. Like he is not, it's not like he's maybe declining physically from his performances, but he's still getting W. He's still doing well. But I think Kevin Holland is younger, faster, probably stronger. They both have a similar body type. And largely, we've seen Kevin Holland struggle with dude to take him down and control him. and he has been very capable on the feet and also is capable of using the wrestling that he is trying so desperately to add to his game and just being more well-rounded, more dynamic fighter. And I think that that's just it.

I think he's more dynamic than Tim Means. And I think that he's going to get the job done. So I've got him included as a parlay piece, as does Connor. AK, what's your read on this fight, though? I do like, I'm such a fan of the Dirty Bird. I really wanted to see him fight Robbie Lawler. That's a whole other thing. But I can't be disappointed with the Kevin Holland matchup.

I remember when I saw this that this was made, I was like, you know what? That makes a lot of sense for both guys, actually, because Kelvin Holland really has a name. Tim Means is like one of the most, not overlooked because fans do like him, but it just doesn't feel like people like put him in that upper tier of welterweights. And like, I get it. He's kind of has always been missing that big win. But really, he gives a scrap to anybody. And if it does stay on the feet, which I expect this one to do, I think I do have to favor means. Holland, you know, can be so explosive and so exciting and unpredictable on the feet, which is great.

But because I would, unless Holland puts them away, I would imagine this one goes to scorecards. And in that situation, I would greatly favor Tim Means. So I love the matchup. I do like it for Means. I'm a little surprised at the money line that I'm looking at. I mean, it's not a small line. Minus 260 is up there for Kevin Holland. I think people are just so impressed with how Holland looked in his welterweight debut.

And he's Kevin Holland. He's a guy who's talked himself up to being really interesting and compelling, and he's that sort of figure. And yet, also, I would just, you know, I think there's some of it that Kevin Holland, you see this a lot in betting on. Kevin Holland is getting finishes. And Tim Means his last run. all decisions. You know, he has been,

he has been a decision machine. And so I think that that's kind of playing into what we're getting. But I think that you're probably, honestly, I think you may have a better read on this fight than either Connor or I did. Because the more I looked into it, the more I was like, this is probably just should be a pass.

Like the odds are so heavy probably shouldn't be. If there's value on Kevin Holland, which again, I think that there is some, It's probably not enough for me to have bet this, but I already threw them in a parlay. So this is what we do. We're just going with it, and we're going to see what happens. And hope it works out.

Does the parley also involve the – so the parley doesn't involve this fight. It's a parlay with other – it's not like Kevin Holland plus Kevin Holland by K.O. or nothing like that. No, no, no. It is – all of my parley pieces this week, and I have five of them, are all individual fighters. So, but I mentioned it earlier. Connor has Kevin Holland parlayed with Phil Hawes. Okay.

And that that pays out at plus 108 for him. I have Kevin Holland parlayed with Phil Hawes as well. I got those numbers slightly different. That pays out at minus 109. But again, I've got a big parlay thing at the end because I did something very, very dumb. We'll talk about that. I like that. Next to fight on the main card, I have nothing to say.

here but I want to give you an opportunity in case this is this fight that speaks to you because I think it is a fun fight but I don't have any idea what the hell is going to happen between Joaquin Buckley and Albert Dureyev I don't know if whatever the dude from Detroit

Captain Dan or whatever that guy's name is I can't think of his name right now off the top of my head the Detroit survival guy do you remember who I'm talking what's Oh I can't remember his name the one that everyone's making fun of Yeah, I don't know if he's going to be in the corner for Buckley, and that may sway the odds, but as it sits, Dariah is minus 220 favorite.

Buckley's plus 180. Neither I nor Connor have any action here. I favor Dariah, just because I still have a lot of questions about Buckley's long-term viability and strategy use, but he's also a super, super well-built young man. athletic and dangerous and showed improvements in his last fight out against Abdulazaka Hassan. I mean, he showed a more tactical approach to the fight. I just,

I can't feel good about a bet, but do you have a, do you have a particularly strong feeling about this fight? I don't. I will just say, was this Dariyev that did this? Before I slander the man, was it Dariah,

sorry, guys, if people hear clicking of keys, I'm doing a quick Google search, who did the cat, who did the cat, Yes, okay. So this is my, this is my gamut advice.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Yeah, no, okay. This is my gamelmy advice. If you, if you love cats, if you love animals in general, but particularly cats as I do, you cannot. Big time. You cannot bet on Albert Dariah because there is a video from 2018 of him training by throwing a cat or I should slander him. I should, I should, sorry, check myself. before I slander him, but yeah, yeah, they're throwing a cat.

You shouldn't slander anyone. You shouldn't slander anyone, but this is, this is not slander because this is video. This is a video that he put on Instagram. So this is not, these are not allegations. These are video on Instagram of him and, uh, and him and a teammate throwing, throwing a cat between them. Um, no, I, I, I, listen. That's a weird thing. Yes, it was, people were not happy about it.

Uh, it's, it was a little aggressive. Um, I understand it's his pet. When we say throwing, you're talking about like tossing or like fastballing? Like tossing it with a teammate. So people know what I'm talking about. Just Google Alba Dariah of Kat. And there's video. This video he put, this is video he put up on Instagram. So yes, this is a vibes pick.

In good conscious people, you cannot bet. Unless you want to bet against him, this makes you say, hey, I'm really liking Buckley as an underdog now, then go for it. But I think you're right, though. Maybe we just stay away from this fight in general. No, I'm not right now because now we've added another bed. to your card because vibes bets are important bets. You got to make vibes bets because I didn't, because you are the Prince of Positivity, I didn't

want to put you in this position when I was outlining how I wanted to game this. But I would also normally have added to the three categories, who's your least favorite fighter? Who's the fighter you hate? But I know that you're the guy. You're the Prince of Positivity. You don't hate anybody. No, I don't even hate Albert Drive.

Like I said, the video is ugly. I don't like it. But we're close enough there. This is a vibes pick. You also have to vibe again. You vibe for people and you vibe against them. So we're going to add Joaquin Buckley to your now five bets down on that card. Now you've got Joaquin Buckley in there as well.

That's great because I think we're actually going to get one more vibes pick added on because I certainly have a vibes pick and I'm excited to talk about it. But first, first, my good friend, we've got to move our way to the rest of the main card, a lightweight belt, Demiris Smagulov versus Guramkutat. I think I got that right. That's pretty good. This is a fight that, similar to some other ones I've said here, I just don't feel like I have a good read.

My belief is that Demir is going to get this done because I think he's a little more well-rounded. That being said, Kutadlazze does have the winner of Matush Kamrott, who I think incredibly highly of. Close fight, close fight. Very close fight. I'm not certain he won it,

but he did officially win it. And so that gives me a lot of Paul. But Connor, Connor Berks, he does not have the same concerns. He bet Demer's Magalov at minus 150. That line has now moved to minus 160. So pretty close about the same. And Demer's 5-0 is a favorite, as you'd expect from a dude who has one loss in his career. So I'm, I just, this is stay away from me.

But I don't know if you have any vibes here, any specific thoughts on this matchup. I think both guys are legit. And that's why I'm a little scared to bet on Isma Gulov. I wouldn't go as far as to call this like a trap fight. But it does, it is unfortunate for him that he's kind of, he's on a pretty nice streak. And he has to run into this guy who again, yeah, the last time we saw him, which was about 18 months ago. It's been some time to spend some time since the fight was that fight with Garmat, which like we said was competitive. But he did officially win.

Could he lots say is kind of a mystery man at lightweight. So, you know, if he gets past Isma Gulav, that would tell us a lot. really like shoot him up the rankings um if he isn't high already again from from a split knot over gamrott so like i would just really would not want to bet on this fight if i had to um if i had to you know what i'd probably i just probably just take a flyer on kutalate i just say hey he's he's a slight underdog i'm not i don't feel like asking you're out of ten question i wouldn't go feel confident saying like is magulov wins seven times out of ten i'd like i'd go below that like probably short of 50-50.

But I think they're really evenly matched. So, Isma Gila was great. The Kazakhstan, he's Kazakhstan. He's fighting out of Russia. He's from Kazakhstan. He fights out of Russia. He's from Kazakhstan. The Kazakhstan M.

The Kuzkata is very, very real. Apparently. But if I had to bet. Shavka, Rakhmanov. Right? If I had to bet, I'd go with a slight underdog, just because that would be more. I don't know, just more interesting to me. I think that that's totally fair.

my thought here is and I mentioned shafkat rakhmanov fellow kazi fighter I feel very similarly about demure as I do about shavkat I think shavkot's only a little less so even I think shavkot is great I think this guy's going to be in the top 15 of the division but every time I watch him fight I'm just kind of waiting for it all to collapse like he's he's very talented very good and he is knocking people out finishing them and getting these comparisons to some of, you know, some of the brightest prospects that we've ever seen, Hamzaa Shamaev, I know that was the guy that we all talked about,

like, well, which of these guys is actually better? I feel that, I feel that Shavkat is maybe, at some point, I feel like there's smoke and mirrors here with him, but I can't quite put my finger on it. But I'm also willing to think that, like, maybe I'm just wrong. Demir Shmagulab really feels like there's smoking mirrors here. And I can't tell you why, but my vibes are that he is going to lose badly in the not too distant future. I don't know if it's going to be this fight or not.

I just, for a guy with such a gaudy, you know, 28 and 1 or whatever his record is, something, he's one loss and 20 plus wins. Every time I watch him fight, I think this dude's very good, but there's just some component missing. And maybe it's just that like he's not like a great athlete. And so it's weird to watch him have to fight extremely well to beat marginal lightweights, you know, or guys who are good but not great. But I feel even, I feel very similar about both guys. And that gives me a big concern about betting on either of them because I don't want the one time I say, well, this guy's going to do it now to then be burned.

So I'm passing. But we have one final fight on the main card of UFC Austin. And we don't have to talk about it because we already did. Julian Marquez versus Gregory Rodriguez fight. I made it clear. My feelings. We've already established everything. But the prelim main event we do have to talk about.

Oh, yes. Because the pre-lim main event for U.S. Austin is a bantam-wapeout between Adrian Yanez and Tony Kelly. Adrian Yanez is awesome. And every time out, I mean, his last fight was a fight of the night with Davy Grant last fall. and before that he turned in three performance of the night. So this dude has had four fights in the UFC and four performance bonuses.

He has been all gas, no breaks. One of my favorite prospects going right now is Adrian Yon is. And coincidentally, he is fighting against the current person that no one is a big fan of, Mr. Tony Kelly. Bad vibes. Tony Kelly is all bad vibes because if you somehow missed it or you just forgot about it at the Blockwich Rockwich fight a few weeks ago, Mr. Tony Kelly was cornering Andrea Lee and said some things that are very bad and not great about Brazilians. And I'm not going to repeat them. You can go find the information on the internet.

But he said a lot of xenophobic stuff and then doubled down on it by basically being like, I didn't say anything wrong. You guys are all, the world is soft now. blah blah blah and a janez being the hero that he is uh was watching the fight car was like man i can't wait to dust this dude and i think he's going to do it uh i think both my you know both both both my value says the arian y annes has value here but for sure my vibes say adrian yanez is the bet to bet to go with and so i have i have a i have a jane yane janez who is minus 350 as a favor right now i have them as a parley piece and i am also taking a this one's a little bit more of a vibes bet but Yon is by KOTKO at plus 150.

Connor Birx has Yana is in a parlay with Cody Stamen, who will talk about in just a moment. But, A.K. Is this a vibes bet for you? Is this? Because I think this would be the last vibes bet of the card, just kind of looking at it. And it feels like we can round out your betting card with a vibes bet right now. Yeah. Look, Tony Kelly is actually a good fighter, by the way.

All chicanery aside and all stupidity aside, he is a really good fighter. in what is a very tough division. But I am all in on Adrian Yannes, and I have been for a long time. I think he is the best boxer at 135 pounds. And maybe... Wow. Wow, that is a big statement. You know, purely Yon competes at 135 pounds, right?

Listen, he's up there. But we did, listen, I had to stand my word. We did a Who's the Best Boxer in MMA article some time ago. And yeah, look, we kind of write those things, and sometimes we have takes just for the sake of having takes, but I'll stand by it. I picked Yanez. Hey, that's a way to go because I had a take that Juliana Pena was going to upset him in Nunes and then I stuck by it and it worked out. And now you get to ride it for the rest of your life.

For the rest of my life. So I feel that strongly about Yonnas that, yeah, even at minus 350, I'm like, no, man. Like that's a, that's a worth, that looks like a worthwhile bet to me. I think, I think the odds are right and I'm all in. I think, I think he could win by knockout. But I also just feel very comfortable with him winning a dominant three-round decision. He is, yeah, he is a guy who. will at it's hard to say at 135 but will at least find himself in a number one contenders about

sometime in the near future and and who knows eventually challenged for a title he's just his striking is just so so good love it love love that we all are in agreement because connor's with us here and so because yon is such a favorite now we're going to do the other thing we're going to close out your betting card a vibes bet we're going to go double vibes we're going to go we are going to instead of, well, we're not going to, never parley underdogs. If you learn nothing else from this episode,

a.k. Never parley underdogs. What? Unless you're shooting the moon. Otherwise, underdogs have plenty of value. I have an incredible underdog parlay, though, to throw out later. Oh, this is fantastic.

I'm excited because that's a moonshot. Then we're okay with it. But we're going to round out your betting ticket this week. We're going to parlay Adrianianz with Gregory Rodriguez. Instead of betting Gregory Rodriguez straight, we'll just parlay those. two, and you will also have the Gregory Rodriguez by submission value prop there. So, but it's great.

We've locked in your card because I don't think you're going to have anything else that you're particularly vibing about here. Um, we do have a couple. Oh. Listen, uh, don't, you don't, you don't have any room in any of your parlays or your slips for, uh, for the Maria Olivera Gloria DePaula fight? I, in fact, do. Okay.

Actually, that's the next, that's the next, that's the next. Oh, you're going to bring it up. Oh, I'm sorry. There's a whole segment to the, okay, please do. Yeah, there's a whole, this is a whole segment, right? Okay. That's right. We're still, we're still concluding.

Okay, I got excited because I feel like we had to talk about this way. I have two more fights that I am interested in, I guess three more technically fights. My slip is done, but like my slip is done. Well, actually, that's right. Your betting slip is done. Unless you want to add more. Right. But I think we're for sure locked in here.

All right. So the next fight, I mean, we've got some other fights. happening. I've got a welterweight contest between court McGree McGee and jeremiah wells featherweight bout between ricardo ramos and danny shavez which i think is actually a sensational fight i just don't want to put a bet down there but the next bet i have is on the women's drawback out between maria olivera and gloria de paula but aka it sounds before we even get to me it sounds like you have vibes it sounds like you have thoughts and an argument so tell me what you're thinking here how can gloria de paula be a minus 265 favorite

over anyone. This is absurd. Listen, I understand, if you look at Gloria DePaul's record, she has fought very tough. Like, she's six and four. She's fought good competition. I get it. I get it. She's better than her record says.

But for her to be six and mine, this is Bellator odds. Like, why is she? I know we don't know a lot of Maria Olivera either. And she has certainly fought lesser competition. So, you know, from a qualitative standpoint, I have. have a basic understanding of where this line is coming from. But there's so, like, there's so inexperienced at the UFC level. Actually, this is the fourth fight for DePaula.

No, DePaula's actually been, had a few, which is odd because I would not have thought it. You would not have remembered is what you're saying. Yep, not well. But the point stands, I think anyone looking at this card, even if you're hard, even if you're hardcore and you know who Gloria DePaula is, I think you'd be shocked. That's just minus 265. That shouldn't be. and that Oliver is a plus a plus 215 underdog like what i'm i'm so very very excited about what's about

to happen right now because i was in full agreement with you when i looked at this i said what the hell is going on right now like glory to paula should not be this big a favorite and my recollection is like maria olivera she she lost the tabith ritchie who's not a bad fighter the tap the reach pretty good fighter and i remember that fight being competitive. I went back and watched it. And it's more competitive than you think it is. It's not like, Ritchie clearly wins, but Oliver shows some heart, some toughness, some grit, some determination in there. But what she doesn't show is the ability to actually fight. And that's the thing, because the tape here, when I went back and watched the tape, because I came into this, I looked at this fight and said, I think that there's an underdog bet to be made.

And I didn't watch the tape. And I was like, oh, no, I am super wrong. Glory to Paul is going to beat the hell with Olivera because Gloria DePaula here and here are my reasons I don't need to get too deep into it she is substantially more athletic she is a much smoother striker

Olivera looks very like she knows what to do but it's very robotic and forced and there's she's doing the things because she's supposed to but she's not comfortable in there whereas DePaul is extremely comfortable on the feet

um this is a little more because We've seen her more often. There are more fights to judge this by, obviously. She has improved time in and time out. She is looking better every time that there's a progression to her, which is good. But mostly, the biggest one to me, Oliver's record is all smoking mirrors. It's all fake.

I'm looking at it now. She has, her combined opponents that she has defeated have a record of 8 and 17. She has seven wins, seven wins of her 12. I think wins is what she has in her record. Seven of them are over winless fighters. And she only has two wins over winning fighters. So by winning fighters, I mean one in O and two and O. Or her two, like everything else,

she has lost to any of the good fighters she has faced and she has mostly faced people who have never fought before and some of them who have never fought since. There's just nothing to believe that she does. deserves to be in the UFC if we're just being honest. Like it's not, and that is not a critique on her as an individual or as an athlete, but her record is not borne out that she deserves to be here. And Gloria DePaula, I think, does absolutely, has proven that she deserves to be here.

Maybe this is a bad bet because the odds are high and as you say, Belator odds. But honestly, if you just go watch each of their most recent fights, I think anybody and you just watch them side by side, you would say, that one girl is going to kick the crap out of that other girl because that's all I did. I put them up and I was like one of these people looks like they really can like that they have something here and the other one looks like no. So I have glory to Paul as a parley piece. Connor does not, but she is part of my group of five parlay pieces.

So honestly spent more time talking about that fight than I thought we would. Oliver's record is a little, is a little Mazuravian. Let's let's let's coin that phrase. It's a little Mazza. Not to say the fights are fake, but I think, like, we can use it as sort of a blanket term for a record, just when you dig into a record at all. And you're just like, ooh, that looks better on paper than it does when you actually look at it. And that's it. And so we've talked about a lot of other stuff.

The last thing I need to talk about, oh, I guess the last thing I need to talk about. And then we'll mention one other fight because Connerberg's has a bet on another fight. But the last fight I have a bet on is another Bannam wipeout, this one between Eddie Weinland. And Cody Stamon. I do it. Don't need to break this down too much. Cody Stamon is a massive favorite. He's minus 525 right now.

Wyneland, huge underdog plus 385. And this is very simply one, two is a two-part bet. One, Vegas understands Cody Stamen very well. He is four and O is a favorite. He has lost most of his underdog pouts. They know where to set his lines and he does what he is supposed to do, but never overachieves. Eddie Wineland is old.

and this is just that he is at the peak of his powers I still think that this would be a bad style for him but he is he's not the peak of his powers Cody Stamen is not going to be the guy some people wanted him to be but he is still a more than service of Banimate he is younger faster stronger

he is a more powerful wrestler he is not as good a striker but probably can just out volume Wyneland on the feet at this juncture I think this is again it's a high price to pay but I have them as a parley piece and Connor Berks has

Stamen parlayed with Adrian Yannes for minus 164 odds AK., do you have anything any different pearls of wisdom about this fight? I feel like this one is very straightforward for everybody. Yeah, no way. I think that'd be fun to just throw money

on Eddie Weiland, but I avoid this. This would be like low-key, one of the biggest upsets of the year, I think if Eddie Weinland finds a way to win this fight. I know it's not a fight like anyone's even really talking about is a preliminary bout and it does seem kind of set up for statement to win but yeah i think it if this happened we would be talking about at the end of the year like what the hell happened if cody's

statement lost his fight yeah if if we do an um an upset of the year kind of award and and edie won the i think he would have a really good shot at at taking home those honors so that is my last bet uh connor burkes does have one more bet down and it is on a fight we've yet to talk about uh so Very quickly. It is the opener. Super weird opener, by the way, this week. It blows my mind that Roman Delizze and Kyle Dawkes are the, like, that could open a pay-per-view.

Like, that's that quality of fight, but it's opening a fight night here. Connor has money down on Kyle Dawkes, who is the favorite? He got Dawkins straight. He has them at minus 180. That line has since changed. Kyle Dawkins is now minus 240. Math-wise, Dawkins is 3-1 as a favorite. favorite delizzi this is first time ever being an underdog so uh i think this is a fight where

if i'm just picking a winner i'm going to pick kyle dockis but delizzi is really powerful i'm a pretty good grappler and i feel like could be a could be live here as an underdog i just don't feel confident in it so i'm staying away but a k do you have any what's your read on this fight if you have anything to add you know to to my broad assessment here kyle dacus has been prior to this fight was in back-to-back penultimate bouts. He was in what I would consider a legitimate co-main event against Kevin Holland. That was eight months ago. And then a second-to-last fight by default against Jamie Pickett.

I think that was everybody not originally the scheduled a co-main. So, I mean, just kind of ended up there. But yeah, that's weird. He has got back-to-back penultimate fights and then opening the prelims. Now, this whole card is on ESPN, ESPN and ESPN Plus. So it's almost like, it's almost like opening up just the whole card like as a total. You almost like don't, there's really almost no point in separating prelim and main card for this particular, particular event on Saturday. So if you want to look it that way.

Yeah. But it's still weird for him to be the first fight of the night. After me second to last on the last two cards. He was fine. And it's very strange. And, you know, it's that it's UFC Austin. So he is, you know, they're because it they're going to a location, people are going to be there. And some people will be there for the whole thing, but 14 fights, not everyone's going to show up for the, for the curtain jerker.

And so Kyle Dawkins, who is a good fighter and a solid, you know, fairly young competitive middleweight and has been very exciting, if nothing else, too. Like, this is a dude who's been having good fights. It's super weird to see him as the curtain jerker when, like, Jasmine Jasutovicius versus Tony Sov. I was waiting for that. I was waiting for that. I don't know how that's not the curtain jerker. But, or, I mean, maybe Court McGee, maybe people just know Cort McGee from Tough, but like that, I would have thought that Kyle Dawkins Romandalee would have been either, you know, based on this card, I don't actually know if it's main card, but I would have thought, you know, closer, maybe the prelim main event even over Yanaz Kelly. But, but it's just super weird.

It's a very interesting card structure. That flyweight fight should have clearly been the opener. And by the way, it is, it is, it is, Jasmine. Jazz DeVisius. Jazz DeVisius. That took me a long. Jazz, Jazz DeVisius. Yeah, that is a good way to remember.

Yes, jazz, jazz de Vesis. It took me a long time to get that one. So yes, Jasmine, Jazz DeVisius. Thank you. She doesn't walk out to DJ Jazzy Jeff and the fresh prince. She's doing it wrong. I missed opportunity. Thank you, Mike.

Thank you, Mike. Thank you, Mike. He's the best. Him and John, Annick. They don't miss, man. They don't miss pronunciation. Yeah. My thoughts on this fight.

Kyle Dachis is the favorite, I assume, right? He is. He is. Comfortable favorite. Mine is 240. Minus 240. No, I think that line sounds. How much underdog is, so, Delizai, sorry?

Plus 195. So Delizzi is a 34% win probability. I'm feeling pretty confident about Docus here. And I like Delizzi. Delizzi is one of those guys. I think he's tough. I think he's going to hang around in the U.C.'s middleweight division for a long time. I just, I just don't know what his ceiling is.

And if we ever see him break out. out of like that middle of the pack, you know, and really string together the kind of wins you need to to make it top 20, top 15. So, and Dawkes is a guy who I still feel like has that potential. So, yeah, I'd be just going with the guy who I think has better future prospects. I like him in this matchup stylistically. And I think minus two four is a strong line. And I'd be comfortable betting it.

Nice. Well, if I bet on MMA, which I don't. Yeah. The last thing I'll say about this fight is I do think that part of my Dawkes, uh, concern is I don't think that his brother is very good heavyweight. And so it, I think that taints my view of him as middleweight to some extent. So you could be right, but I'm staying, I am staying away from this fight, which brings us almost to the end of our show. Now, before we wrap up, because I'm going to end the show, obviously recapping the bets and explaining all my

parlays, because I have many, many of parlias. But before then, I believe you have something to offer me. I have a couple of things. let's do you do you before we get to me let's get to you then sir as the guest okay guests first please all right floor is yours do you do a lock of the week no okay i have i oh okay we're doing a lock of the week this week what's the lock of the week pretty low wattage um McGee wells over two and a half rounds oh i think that's very good minus two point five minus one eighty five excuse me so i mean you know it's not like a big thing but it's like i'd be shocked if McGee i think his last eight seven, eight fights have gone to a decision?

He doesn't finish people and he never gets finished. That's it. It's been a long time. It's been a long time. So there you go. There's your sexy lock of the week. A court McGee decision. Yeah. I didn't say decision win, but I don't know if he wins or not.

I didn't pick that. But I do think it goes to the score cards. Yeah, I wanted to bet Jeremiah Wells just because I really want to fade Court McGee. But then I watched Jeremiah Wells fight and I was like, this feels a lot like Jeremiah Wells is going to have a strong first. drowned and then he's going to get tackled and sat on for two more. And this is just a fight not to bet. But as a result of that, I do, I didn't even look at that line.

I think that's a good bet. I love that bet. And I may include that in the gambling column later this week. Excellent. And could I interest you in some PFL, sir? Oh, you can absolutely interest me in some PFL. I am sad because I was supposed, I was supposed to go to the PFL this week. but the PFL decided to come to Atlanta, Georgia on the week I have my vacation coming up,

so I will not be going to the PFL this week. I will be going for the next two, but arguably one of their better offerings recently. I mean, the lightweight's doing lightweight things, Antonio Carl's shoeface out here doing business. What do you have for me? Well, you said never to parlay underdogs. So, of course, this is a three underdog parlay. Tremendous. All right.

All right, let me see if I can, let me see if I can guess. Okay, go ahead. Rauch Manfio is for sure. Yeah, he's the anchor. Why is he, why are they not respected? I like, he's fighting OAM, Olivia, open Mercierge. I don't, I mean, OAM's a fine fighter. I am not certain why this line is not a, that's bad, not like a pickam.

Like that line should probably be a pickum. Plus 160 underdog for, for Rauch? What the? Yeah, I, I, I didn't honestly look at PFL lines, but that, that is a, that is a, very, I can only assume that they just are really vibing OAM because of OAM's pedigree in the UFC. But like, I don't know, Mafia has been beating better dudes.

That seems very weird. Honestly, I'm probably going to bet that as we're looking at it. I will say... One of the other two more underdogs. Miles Price. No, that would have been smart. But I did not go in that direction. I just looked at Jeremy Stevens at minus 525 and thought Jeremy Steven should not be a minus 525 favorite

against any warm body. Who else here? There's no way you're on Marcine held, are you? No, that's not one of the ones. Okay, thank God. I thank God. I was doing like that. No, it's worse.

It's worse. No, you're not going bad enough. I don't know what you're doing. I don't know what you're doing. I, Pesta actually looks kind of live. If Marcyon held to be an awful bet. If you're going to do it... What are you doing?

I can't guess beyond Ralph. If you're going to do a three underdog PFL parley, my friend, you just go nuts with it. You anchor it with Hush and you throw in Tia Doris Axtoulis to defeat Omari Akmedov at plus 385. And... Awful bet. And Bruce Soto to beat Shoeface at, shockingly, only plus 550. I mean, based on what we know about both guys, he should be like a plus 1,000 underdog. But listen, this is a parley.

This parlay, if it hits, if you bet $5, you will win around $400. So there you go. You can't miss. That is the fun here. I will mention just very briefly because I think it bears mentioning, Theodorus Oxalus, light heavyweight taking on, you know, Antonio Shuface Carlos Jr., decorated grappler. No, no, no, that's, no, no. Axtulis is fighting Akhmato.

Soto is fighting. Oh, he's fighting Akhmato. Yeah, Soto. Bruce Soto is the biggest underdog on the car. at plus 550 playing. Okay, sorry. I did have that incorrect then, so that's better because what I was about to say, although I'm still not sure it's better.

Well, I don't know if you know this, but Aksudis got tapped by Marcin held, welterweight, Marcyne held. So I was like, if you're paying him to beat your shoe face, you've lost your mind. This is the PFL. Listen, the smart cage, you don't know what's going to happen in there, all right? This is not like the octagon. This is not like the, you know, the six-sided cage or whatever. Chaos Incarnate.

This is the smart cage. Okay, the smart cage has no, there's no laws in there, despite what the name may say. So I don't just saying, I think it'd be fun. Could I, could you, could you, would you parlay any of these favorites on this card with any of the use? Are you going to do any PFL UFC mixes? No. I'm just kind of looking at the odds right now. I am going to bet Roush Monfield plus 160.

That is just a good bet. Nathan Sheltie, only minus 150 overheld. Yeah, that's probably the other bet that's jumping out at me. You could parley Ahmedov with honestly, if I hadn't already placed these bets down, adding Akhmedov to my stupid parlies would have been nice, but I'm already down. I don't need to add any more money, which is an excellent segue, because it takes me to, before we close out with a recap of the bets, I need to explain to the, the listeners explain to you, sir, what my parlays are. Because I've been saying I have parlays.

And for the sake of ease, I did put two simple parlays in. Kevin Holland and Phil Hawes, minus 260, that parlayed together for a minus 109 total. And I also parlayed Yanez, Stamen, and DePaula, for a plus 111 total. I think that's really, those are just five fighters I feel are going to win. You can mix and match those kind of any way you want to get your odds. That's how I chose to break it down for simplicity's sake. But I'm going to talk about something we've never talked about here before. Called a round robin.

So I assume, AK, that you understand that implicitly you know what a round robin is in sports, right? Round robin tournament, everybody plays everybody, kick out a winner. Round robin bets are very similar. You take however many bets you want and you parlay them all together functionally. But instead of parlaying these five fights for one outcome, which coincidentally, if you did, I think pays out at like plus 300 for those five fighters, I instead decided to do a three-fight round robin. So what that means is it is essentially a shortcut for gambling. If you go on draftkings.com, they offer the round robin option. You can put how many teams you want in that parlay.

And then it will, if you select round robin, you can either select two, three, four. you can select one less than the number of total teams functionally right and it it creates individual parlays of each leg so i've got these five in the were a two-fight round robin means i parlay holland and yanez halland and stammer holland haas halan and de paula yannes and stammer yane and haz and so on and so forth a three-fight parlay does the same but with three of them so that will be a one-click parlay for holland yana as stamon uh yana yana Stamen Haas, et cetera, et cetera. I decided to be stupid and do a five-round-rown-rock,

a five-pick round-robin parlay with these five fighters at three-team parley. So the parlayes I have are also a Holland-Yonna's stamen parley. I have a Holland-Stamin-Hawes parley. I have a Holland-Yana's Haas parley. I have a Holland-Yonnas-de-Palma. You end up with ten bets, ten different parlays. um you pay out on all of them i didn't put a ton of money into each of them just because but i haven't done a round robin in a really long time and i wanted to spice things up and so i decided it's

time to talk about around robin they're obviously dumb bets because they're all parleyes so don't do them listeners but i did it because i'm here to have fun with this fight card this weekend so i have 10 different parles amongst those five fighters that I have put. And thank God I didn't know about Amariak Medov because I would have even more because he would have been in my round drop. So like, so like let's say for example, like Holland can lose and that only kills some of the parleyes, some of the round robin. It kills many of them. It kills many of them. But Yane, as long as he always is yanez and.

Holland, Yanez, Stamen, Haas, De Palma are the five. If all five of those win, I win 10 different bets with all of them and I've made infinite dollars. Right. We won't see you again. No, yeah. I'm on a beach in, I'm beach in the Caribbean. If one of them loses, I'm still going to make money. Yes, you're still alive.

Just based on the thing. If two of them loses, I'm losing money. If three of them loses, I'm losing a lot of money. If all of them lose, it actually is no different than if, like, four of them lose. Right, right, right. Actually, if three of them lose. Okay. So it's a high risk, high reward thing.

It's dumb, but it's fun. And that's what I'm here for this. So you, you, it creates these tendering on each, you have to put money into each of these parlors. And it can be a different amount or is like you're putting like, like. No, you're doing the round robin. So you set the, you set the price. And it's the same for all of them. Wow.

What the. Okay. As I've got draft kings pulled up and it is here, here's exactly what their read is. Round Robin bets enable you to place all combinations of the outcomes in your bet slip quickly and efficiently. Okay. It's very simple. Usually you don't do it with five. It's usually you do a three-team round robin because then you're just getting a couple of bets down.

It's simpler and you do it that way. But I decided to live on the edge here. Maybe I'll be punished for it. We're going to find out next week on No Bet's Barred. Quickly and efficiently in the world of gambling seems dangerous. Yeah. Online gambling is an incredibly dangerous thing because you are click away from losing your entire bank account. From calamity.

Yeah, whereas previously you had to go get cash and walk up to a window and be like, hey, will you take all this money? Or I guess you just called the bookie. But that's a whole different set of circumstances we're not going to get into. We need to jet, though. So it is time for me to close this down. I will recap the bets. But first, AK, recap the betting slip we have for you, what we've put together for the listeners

because I'm excited about it. Oh, I thought you wrote it down. No, I want you to. Oh, I haven't written down. I don't because I didn't have. access to some of the props. So I didn't, I didn't write it. Yeah, yeah. So the betting slip we have for you, we have a straight bet on Duran win. We have a vibes bet. I'm sorry, we have a vibes parlay of Adrian Yanez and Gregory Rodriguez. We have a straight bet on, hold on where was I? Oh, on Calvin Cater.

Apologies. And where else is the last one? I'm trying to find my notes here. Oh, we have a prop bet on Gregory Rodriguez by submission. And then we have a vibes bet on walking Buckley over Albert Drive. Okay. For Connor Burks, again, Conner's recap, he has Calvin Cater straight. He has Gregory Rodriguez straight. He has Demerius Magalov straight. He has Caldalk is straight.

And he has two parlays, one with Yanez and Stamen and one with Holland and Hawes. And my bets. I've got Joe Loz on at plus 145. I've got Loz on in round one at plus 700. Gregory Rodriguez at minus 200. I have Gregory Rodriguez by submission at plus 350. I have Adrian Yanez by KOTKO at plus 150. That is a vibes bet.

And then I have the five-fight super round-robin of Holland, Yanez, Stamen, Hawes, and Gloria De Palma. I'm doing three team round-robin parlays there. So I've got ten different bets amongst those five fighters. Hopefully that's great. we'll see. But, oh, and I also forgot. AK did give us lock of the week.

McGee Wells over two and a half. Please send me my back. You know what? Because for the sake of the show, again, I'm not getting into guys. I'm not getting into gambling. But for the sake of this episode, I did a little bit of gambling. And I think because I was on this episode, you know, let's carry that over. And that's it.

And then I'm out. And then I'm out. Win or lose, I'm out. You say you're out, but we're going to put the hooks into you. No, please don't. And you can lead a horse to water. but you can make a man gamble for the rest of his life.

I have very... I have very addictive behavior. It won't take much. That's just one little push. That's all we need. All right, guys, thank you for listening, AK, thank you for joining me this week. Next week, we will be back to talk about

all of our gambling successes in the next cards up, and my co-host, Connor Brooks, will be joining us. Until then, love you guys. Fox Media Podcast Network.