MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: The Case For The Underdog To Win The Battle Of Rafaels | UFC Vegas 58 Best Bets

Episode Date: July 6, 2022

Coming off a big weekend for UFC 276, the No Bets Barred crew is back with some lighter fare this week as UFC Vegas 58 takes place, featuring a main event battle between lightweights Rafael dos Anjos and Rafael Fiziev. Both Conner Burks and Jed Meshew like the value on dos Anjos at underdog odds, but are they riding with the former lightweight champion to win the battle of the Rafaels? Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine,

available now, only from Audible. We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard. This week, we are here to preview UFCE Apex 58. The Battle of the Raphael's, it is Rafael Fiziv, going up against Hafeel Dos Anios, But before we do that, Jed, what is going on, man? How was the holiday weekend? How was UFC 276?

How are we feeling? Holiday weekend was good, man. I'm not feeling the best just because, you know, you get the big event hangover. And I had a particularly long weekend because I was at PFL on Friday. Cage sidework in that event. Kayla Harrison, the most dominant fighter in the sport, doing the damn thing again. and so I had really late night Friday and then obviously Saturday is the show you know so very late night both nights this weekend and then and then you're just right into the fourth no no break all gas so it is I am recuperating my bank account is recuperating because it wasn't the best you know I learned an important lesson though Connor I learned a very important lesson this week please share every single one of the bets that I made that I wouldn't have made that I was just like,

I need to get action down on this Donald Serony Jim Miller fight. I'll go to the dog. I'll just fire on the dog. Nope. Green, nope. Like all of them just, uh, just grows Clark. Nope. Just bricked on all of them.

Had I just bet the fights that I felt good and like that I felt I had a good read on, still would have had some misses. You know, I think I had an Izzy by K.O. prop that wouldn't have hit that I would have felt good on. But I would have finished up a little bit of a little money instead of just trying to have fun at the Super Bowl. And that's how they get you. That's how the books get you. You try to have too much fun and you throw away your reason. And so now we're chasing it on, let's be honest.

Not the world's greatest card this weekend. No, not the world's greatest card at all. This is the card where you want to avoid this. thing we did last week of just like let's get action down on every single fight. Oh, heavens. No, do not bet on every fight on this card unless you know something, but I sure don't. I am throwing darts in the dark right now. I got no clue what's happening this weekend. I got a couple darts too. Yeah, that's another thing. Not only is like we get the hangover from UFC 276, massive card, had like 15 bets in play, but we go to this card, which isn't the best card. There's

some interesting fights on it. But a lot of these fights are like 50-50 coin flip fights. And I think that's reflected in the odds. Now that David O'Nama is off the card, I think Saeed Narmaga Madoff is the biggest favorite, and he's at like minus 255. Like, I feel like there's no real sure things on this card. I think it's just a really tough card to break down from a betting standpoint. We're heading back to the apex, which is always great from a fan perspective. Yeah, it's a, it's a tough card this week. I'll admit that. It's a tough card. It's a tough this week. It is. And I think that's going to be reflected in our bets. We were talking about before we hit air. I don't have a lot this week. So I think this is going to be one of our shorter

episodes because I'll be honest. I frankly don't have a lot to say about most of these fights. I think, you know, we could talk. We could go into them. But do I doubt anyone is that riveted to hear an expose on Jamie Pickett versus Dennis dude whose name I can't say? It's just I think we lost that fight. I think it's off. Oh, is that fight gone too? Yeah. I think we're down to 11 fights now.

Well, that is helpful. I love, 10 is, for my money, 10 is always a sweet spot of fights. I think that is the perfect number to not have the card. Take too long, spend too much time doing this. But 11 will work. Well, but my point stands. We just, Amin Zahabi, Riggi Terseos, like, we don't need to spend 20 minutes talking about that fight. Yes.

There's just not. for as much as there are some relevant fights and like you said some pretty good well-made competitive fights this is not a card that is going to to shock the world so we don't need to spend an infinite amount of time on it and because I have so few bets and you have so few bits I think we can we can keep this keep this pithy baby let's do it let's uh let's dive right into it let's get into UFC apex 58 battle of the hot battle of the high Or O'Other, Ophelels. Who will come the champion won Raphael to rule them all?

That is where we will begin in the main event. It is a lightweight bout. Hafeuio dos años coming in as the underdog of plus 170. Going against Hafeel Fazeve, the favorite at minus 200. Fight goes the distance is minus 150. Fight does not go the distance. It is plus 110. Do you have a side in this one?

I do have a side. Do you have a side? I don't have a side. I'm just playing a prop and a parlay, but I'm curious to hear you. side. So I'm curious to hear your prop and your parlay, but I will give you my rundown. First of all, I want to say the single most important thing about this fight, and it is, this fight is everything that's wrong with the UFC, because this is a good fight.

This is a great fight. This is a fight that is relevant. This is a fight that is a fight that was organically created by Rafael Fiziv, who called out Dosanjos, because they have the same name, the same spelling of the same first name and Viziv said, hey, let's fight for the name. Like, let's do the, see who the best Raphael is. And that is a very stupid but brilliant thing to do. And if the UFC was a promotion worth their salt, there would be something on the line here.

They would have codified this idea into something stupid, like a crown or the golden Raphael name tag. They could have done anything that is cool and promotionally fun and interesting. and like straight up, I would care so much more about this and so would random casual people if they just had fun and did stupid stuff like that, where it is on a platter for them to do it. And instead, this is a fight that matters and I will be honest, I don't care at all about because I still got the hangover from 276 in International Fight Week. And we've got 277, honestly, not that far away. And so this is a card that's going to get lost in the shuffle and they could have made it stand out in a, very relevant lightweight matchup,

but they're friggin losers, man, and it bothers the hell out of me. Okay, one, I, I've immediately fallen in love with the golden name tag. Maybe like a, maybe like a name tag that almost looks like a belt, but it says Raphael on it, and that's what you win,

and that's what you get to wear from now on, and no one... And, like, say Rafael Fazeve is the one that wins, you can no longer refer to Raphael Dosanos as Hafeil. You have to just call them RDA. Yeah, RDA or any UFC. are dosanos, or just dos anjo, like you just can't use, like, they should do stuff like that.

It's literally white from our memory. I'm with you. Two. Yes, another thing about this card in me not caring is that I'm going to the event next week in Long Island. Then we have UFC London after that. Then we have UFC 277 the week after that. Like it's just like it feels like this would have been a good spot to take a week off for the UFC. I mean, for sure.

Honestly, they probably realistically should always take a week off. after paper views, but especially after huge ones, that's just not going to fit their timeline in the events they have to do. I recognize that. But for me, it is always just a question of, do you guys even have fun, like doing your jobs, UFC? Because the golden name tag idea, I literally thought of that four seconds ago.

Like, while I was talking, I was just like, oh, that's kind of stupid and interesting. And it legitimately would be stupid and really interesting. And, like, they just don't do, there's nothing outside of the same boxes they work. work in. And so that's why this car, no one's going to watch this car. This car is going to be completely forgotten. It's going to have terrible viewership. And all of these fights are decent. Like they're all at least very competitive fights and you could pull people in. There

are ways to make people care and they're just not doing it. But it's enough of my soapbox. Let's talk about the fight because I don't want us to take three hours on a fight card that we don't have a lot of action on. For me, I am backing Raphael Dosangos to retain the title of best hafael i am backing him for a couple of reasons the primary one is the price uh i think at plus 170 that price is good enough for me to feel there is value there and the second one is uh don't get me wrong i i love fazeva's a prospect i think he is not you know he's not my top tier kind of lightweight prospect some of the other guys uh i mean armand sarukin uh matush gamrott like Those dudes are Cream of the Crop A-plus, number one.

I think both of them would wreck Fizziv. But I think this dude is still a guy who is probably going to have a run here at the top of the division, top 15-ish guy. But RDA is not done. And I would say he's probably not his best right now. He's 38 years old, I think, something like that. But this man looked really good against Paul Feldner. Granted, there was a lot at play there and his return to lightweight. But his struggles have always been, or at least particularly recently, have been with dudes

who are just being undersized as a welterweight and getting out grappled. A bunch of dudes up there just took him the hell down. He couldn't really do anything about it. And that is not a problem at play here with Fiziv. I think he's going to be the bigger man. I love, I think RDA's pressure style will prove particularly effective against Fiziv. just, you know, working those body kicks into him, marching him down, hitting him with volume, and being able to shoot those takedowns.

I think he's going to have success backing Fiziv up, getting Fiziv to the ground. He's a very underrated top game control, wrestler, positional, grappler. And I would straight up pick him to win this fight based on kind of, I think he's still got enough juice in the tank. I think this is a good, a favorable style matchup for him. And I think that championship experience and the way he, fights is really conducive to fighting guys who are smaller than him in the smaller apex cage. And so I would take him straight up.

And so certainly when I'm getting what I think is pretty good value at plus 170 is what draft Kings has him at right now. I'm taking the shot on the underdog. Give me RDA. You could also sell me on an RDA by decision. My main problem there is just that we haven't, it's five rounds. and so that makes it feel more, there's a lot more opportunity, and we haven't seen Fiziv go get dragged into deep waters.

I could see RDA taking him down early, wearing him out and getting a later stoppage. So I'm just taking the underdog RDA straight plus 170. I considered the RDA by decision prop. I've been kind of waffling with this fight, and I think it's going to be a razor-thin fight, and I do actually think it goes to a decision like you were saying, which the recent history should just suggest that I take the dog,

on it and I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I've come very close on taking RDA but the fact that you're on him. Oh, let's do it, baby. Come on. I'm thinking about having on with you. Let's do a little look back. Let's do a little bulldog bet here on the main event. Let's ride with RDA. Let's keep the dream lives. Let's go. I'm going to do it. Oh, all right. This card got so much more interesting right there. I love it. Oh, we're going to have some fun with it now. My parlay piece, what I did was just the over two and a half at minus 300. Oh, wow. So did I. Oh, really? I looked at that that is, I mean, that, that just feels way too good. Like, I expected over two and a half to be a higher number because the over, the over, the over under, like the regular's four and a half.

So I figured two and a half would be much higher, Jack. It's not. So I have that parlayed with one other thing on the card. Yeah, it just, it just feels like a fight that is going to go long. The durability of RDA, I mean, eight straight fights have gone over two and a half. five of which were 25-minute decisions. You know, Fiziv, it's a little shakier there. Like half of his UFC fights have gone under the two-and-a-half, but he just hasn't fought a guy like RDA yet. I just don't see him getting an early stoppages in this one. I don't know if I see him getting a stoppage at all,

maybe in the later rounds, but I think he goes to a decision, but for this parlay's sake, I'm going to play it safe, you know, ride the two-and-a-half with you there. So both of us are going to be on the underdog in RDA, in the main event and both of us have the over two and a half parlayed at minus 300. I love it. That's a very strong start to the night. Just, just total agreement in the main event. Fantastic. Hopefully it works out for us. Let's keep it wrong with the co-main. The co-main event of the evening. A middleweight bout, it is Cal Baralho going up against Armine, Petrosian.

Baralho, minus 2.15. Petrosian coming back at plus 185. I actually can't believe how much much the line has moved on this. I took Kyle last week. He opened at like minus 180. He dropped down to minus 140. He sat there for like a week. I grabbed them at minus 140 and he's just been ballooning up since. I don't, I don't, I can't decide if I would take him at this number now. I mean, I feel, I feel pretty confident. I'm like, yeah, like, I think he's the real deal. I think he looked great. I think he's well-rounded. I think his ground game is going to come in. very good use in this fight. Petroxian doesn't have that much of a ground game. I think the striking, probably pretty even on the feet, the karate style of Bralos, sort of tough to deal with.

He can knock people out. He can submit people. He, you know, he can go to decisions. Yeah, I mean, I like him to win this fight. That's pretty much how I feel about it. I think he's going to win the fight, so that's why I played him. Fair enough. I also think he's going to win this fight. I was debating taking him at the at the 215 price and putting him in in the parlay I have going. But I decided ultimately that I'd rather keep that parlay at two legs because it pays out close to even money so I don't need any any extra and instead I took my one prop of the of this fight card. I took Brailleo inside the distance at plus 130. I like that number.

Yeah, for all the reasons you said, I think he can score takedowns. I was trying to debate if I wanted to take a shot at submission versus TKO, but Barlio has actually had a history of getting finishes from mount and from backmount with punches and not finding the sub. He has subbed people before, but not his go-to. So just feel a lot less confident knowing which way he's going to finish it, but I do think he's going to be able to take Petrosian down,

and there's a world of difference between them down there. So I took Barrio inside the distance at plus 1.30, and that's, again, for most of the same reasons that you like him to win the fight. Yeah, I think he's definitely going to be able to take him down. In nine minutes of UFC work, I mean, I'm sorry, in 19 minutes of UFC work, Petrosian has been taken down five times. So I think... Braleo has take...

I'm not looking at the numbers, but he has a high rate of success. I remember when I was looking into it. He finishes take downs and does it vary and shoots them fairly regularly. So I think, you know, you take Petersian down, put him on his back, and then just go to work.

I agree, man. Hopefully it gets it done for us. Co-man event right now. We're riding lockstep. Let's keep it going. Next up, a Bantam weight bout. of Syed Nurmaka Medov coming in at minus 255 against Douglas Silva de Andrage at plus 215. Under his set of two and a half. Under is minus 130 over two and a half is even money. When I first looked at this fight, I thought I might be taking an underdog shot on Douglas Silva de Androge. But then I looked into it more and I decided not to take a shot on it. And I'm actually parlaying up the over two and a half. in the main event with Saeed and Maghamedov,

parlor that it pays out at minus 118 or whatever. I mean, Andraj, he's getting old, but I mean, he's still in unbelievable shape. He has huge knockout power. He has the ability to submit people. But just going back and watching that Morsov fight from, I think it was 271. I mean, Moresov looked fantastic until he didn't,

until he got rocked by Diyon Drog. He was absolutely killing DSA. Yeah, like he, Morsov looked fantastic. Fantastic. I think Saeed, I know it's a Normaga made of. If you're new to this, he's not the wrestling type. He is not the lay on you, grind you out. He is sick on the feet. I mean, he's just nasty on the feet. I think he's going to be able to avoid that power shot. I think he's going to find a lot of the same successes that Morozo found in that fight. But I think he'll either be able to get DSA out of there or win by decision. Yeah, we had relatively similar reads on this as well. So when I looked at it, I just, initial reaction was Douglas O'Don-Dradge is he's the kind of guy who

is a sneaky underdog because he has such power he's such a good athletic and well-rounded fighter in a lot of ways. He can turn fights around like the Morozov fight very very quickly. But I got the same

conclusions as you. He's just not as good on the feet as Saeed. And I don't have a I don't have a bet here, though, because of the other parts of DSA. Yeah, I think Saeed should beat him, but I thought Morozov was going to handle him, and I felt great about that right up until the moment things turned quickly. I'm just a little wary of the power, the explosion, the athleticism, the kind of, I won't

say durability, because he's not the most durable fighter, but as long as he is in there, he is a threat and that just makes me think I don't have like I said at the start of this a little bit of a hangover from 271 or 276 sorry um and I'm I'm going to take it a lot more cautious this week so no bet on this one for me but I have the same read that's smart I'm uh yeah I'm probably going to be sweating it out because as long as uh you know DSA is in there he is lethal for always a threat always a threat all right well let's keep it rolling then on the main car next up a heavyweight bout

the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Badoe, Parisian. I can't believe this fucking fight is happening. I can't believe it's happening on the main card. I can't believe it's happening in general. I extremely cannot believe it's happening on the main card. And when I was talking with somebody about this yesterday when I realized that this fight was happening

and it didn't strike me until that very moment. You know why UFC 276 was awesome? Like the whole fight card had no light heavyweights or heavyweights on it. And it damn sure didn't have Chase Sherman versus his friggin' Jared van der Ra. Like what a garbo. I don't understand though like the infatuation with having heavyweights on the main card. Like it just feels like if there's a heavyweight fight, they have to put it on the main card. I don't get it, man.

I don't understand it. I do not mean, I know, actually I was going to preface this and say I don't mean this disrespectfully. I frankly don't care. I don't understand why either of these men have jobs in the UFC right now. They are collectively 0 and 7 in their over their last seven fights. Like, Shea Sharma's on four fight losing streak. Vandaraz on a three fight losing streak. Neither of these dudes are going to be serious title contenders or probably even serious top 15 threats.

I was going to say that I don't think. To make it to the rankings. Yeah, they can't. They're not going to make it to the ranking. I mean, they're a combined four and 13 in their UFC careers. I mean, I never want to say never,

just because heavyweight is heavyweight and Vandaraz at least like only 30. But no, like, yeah, these dudes, they're just not it. And that's okay. And if you want to keep them employed for whatever reason, I guess,

but don't put them on the main card of anything. Like, this is the curtain jerker. Like, that just do that. I don't know what the hell's going on here. I do have a side because I'm freaking moron though. What about you? Yeah, you got a side. I don't have a side. I have a prop. I have a fun prop. Oh, I love fun props. It kind of just spoke to me. I don't know why. It's sort of like that

the Chris Curtis goes to decision thing. This one just kind of stuck out to me. It's Jared Vandera by submission. At plus... Spectacular. At plus 550. So the Olinic fight, you know, it's been circling Twitter this week of Olinic right after the fight teaching him the neck crank and everything like that. I recall.

And I was like, what was that fight like? And I go back and I watch it. And I mean, Vandera had his back for like a decent amount of time, had the hooks in. I had a bet on him. He was going for three. rear naked chokes. He threw up a triangle at one point. He tried to get an arm bar as well. It looked like he was pretty decent. I'd do some more research. I was unaware of the fact that

Jared is a BJJ black belt. I know there's levels to this. BJJ black belt. So what he's coming in here to fight for his job against the guy and Chase Sherman, who the last two times he went out there, got submitted in the first two rounds. My worry is Jared only has one take in his UFC career. Chase Sherman obviously is not going to be going for any takedowns. I'm hoping that he turns the fight IQ on, goes for that takedown, gets him down, and uses that just wizardry of BJJ that we saw against Alexei Olinic, but this time he finishes the job and gets Chase Sermon out of there. Jared Van dera by submission plus 550. That's very fun. I respect it. I won't be joining you, but I love the idea. I love the

enthusiasm. It's a quarter unit, so I feel all right with it. Yeah, I took Chase Sherman. Wow. I don't feel good about it, and I almost regretted it the moment I click submit, but... This bet is in. This bet is submit.

This bet's in, because I couldn't walk it back. I was just like, look, both of these men are bad. I maintain that firmly. I bet Jared Van derrick against Alexei Leninik for specifically, because I was like, Alexo Lenick is 107 and can't get punched in the face anymore.

And Jared Van dera is at least a BJJ black belt and probably won't get like Olinic jitsued if it goes to the floor. And then he can stand up and just chuck hamhawks at his head. And he did it until he stopped doing it and was dead. And it was the whole time he's down there playing with him was like, you're the stupidest man alive, you're the stupidest man alive, you're the stupidest man alive, you're the stupidest man alive. Just stand up. Just stand up. and see. It looked like you had to choke in for a second. It was all so dumb. It was all so dumb. And so I want you to know that while everything you said was fun, it all hinged on that one very important statement. I hope that the fight IQ is going to come into play. He didn't have the fight IQ to not grapple with Alexio freaking Lennox. I don't trust his man's fight IQ at all. Chase Sherman, I straight up just think is a better fighter. I'm not saying he's a good fighter and he has very clear deficiencies. But.

he at least is going about MMA in the right way. He's just not good. But like what he's trying to accomplish, he throws it a very, he has a very high work rate. Um, he's relatively lighter in his feet.

He doesn't have a bunch of chaos power, but he's trying to be well conditioned and kind of wear fighters down over time. Uh, he throws leg kicks really nicely, um, which you don't see a ton of that in the heavyweight division. Like I, I,

I like what he's trying to do, even if he's not very good at it. and so getting him at plus 155 is the number and I just said screw it um it won't it will no way shock me if he trips falls over and vanderah is able to you know jump on top and submit him but I think he is more fleet of foot he got faster hands certainly throws with higher volume I think he can just kind of pepper and this is this is bad heavyweight so it's a five minute fight. It says 15, but Vandara has five minutes to actually like tackle him and score takedowns because after that he's not going to have the juice to get him to the floor. They're just

going to be a hugging contest against the fence such that it is. So I'm taking Sherman. I don't feel great and I certainly don't suggest anyone tell me on this one because betting on bad heavyweight is bad idea. Yeah. It's what I've done. I mean, it's a bad idea. I took a guy that has no submissions since 2017 to win by submission at only plus 550. And it's at only plus 550. That's the only problem with it because the rest of your logic is sound. Yeah, I mean, this should be like a plus $1,500 bet, but some, and angels whispered in my ear on this one, and I'm hoping that I can cash this quarter unit and make away swiftly.

Another thing, we talked about not wanting to lay chalk on Ian, Gary, and Alex Paheta. I do not want to lay chalk on Jared Van der. Never. Never. Never do that. So, yeah. Minus 180. Yeah.

Minus 180 is such a stupidly high number, too. It's like, how? You guys know you've watched this man fight before. He's one and four. Like, he's one and four in the UFC. It is. And he's a minus 180. It really, and this is a main card fight.

I mean, I don't know. know. Beating Justin Taffa is not that good for me. What do I know, dude? What do I know? No, it is not. All right. So will that be able to eclipse Parisian Badoe for a fight of the year contender?

We will find out Saturday around. I think that fight's going to be worse than Parisian Badeau by a considerable margin. We're going to have fun. That's all I know. We're going to have fun when that fight comes up. Actually, I realized I didn't even look at this. What are the props for Sherman by Desiremen? by decision.

What's the over under on this fight? I might take the over. Plus 115 for over two and a half. I'm probably honestly going to throw something down on over two and a half. Let me think about it because maybe I shouldn't. Sherman wins by decision plus 500. Sherman by decision plus 500. I very much probably going to throw a quarter unit.

You know what? I'll just go ahead and say it. I'll throw a little baby bet on Sherman by decision instead of at the over here just because plus 500 is a big number sure why not let's do it why not i'm not doing i'm gonna have fun no you have you've got by submission i'm riding the dars night jared van dera to get this one done well i honestly i hope you're right and maybe i'll learn a lesson to stop betting on freaking heavyweights and all i mean if he locks up a choke dude you're going to see me hysterically laughing. Like, and like, you can tell Sherman's about the tap.

His face starts getting red and it's like, oh, Sherman might tap here. And then you see his hand come up and you see him tap. Like, I will be dying laughing. As you should. I honestly, I hope that, I hope that wins for you. I am, I am more supportive of your bet in this instance. I am in mind. Thank you. I appreciate you. I appreciate you. I appreciate you backing me. So you're not only going with Chase Sherman Moneyline, we're also getting some Chase Sherman by decision.

Saturday is going to be a good one. Honestly, if I was smarter, I probably just would have bet Chase Sherman by decision, but I already have the money line bet in. So now I've just taken a little bit of extra on it. I'll let you in on a crazy secret for a half second. I considered parlaying Jared Vandera up for like a half second. I was like, maybe I should put them in a parlay. That would have been awesome.

And then I was like, what am I doing with my life? Maybe I should not do that. Maybe I should not do that. All right, we spent plenty of time on this fight. Let's keep it moving. Next up, we've got a lightweight bout. It is Michael Johnson going up against Jamie Mularky. Jamie Malarkey minus 240.

Michael Johnson plus 200. Over under is set of two and a half. Under is minus 150. Over is plus 110. I am actually playing that under the minus 150. I just think both these guys have that finishing ability. They both can get finished. I think their styles just match up perfect in this one.

Malarkey likes to make it dirty. Michael Johnson, obviously, we'll get in. He is not afraid to go against you. I will not be surprised if this ends up being a brawl, just swinging. Malarkey, he's only won by decision one time in his career. Michael Johnson, seven of his last 11 of not gone to decision. I just think their styles make for a fight that's going to be exciting as long as it lasts. What was the line?

One and a half, two and a half? Two and a half, under two and a half at minus one fifty. under two and a half minus 150 okay um yeah i have no action here uh just don't i think malarkey's gonna win because michael johnson is 7000 years old in fight years mich johnson is like the darling dog i i've been seeing quite a few people playing him uh interestingly enough that is is very interesting uh i just have to assume it's because he he really did look rejuvenated in Like, he looked the best he had in years against the Lawn Patric. And so people, I think people want him to be back to being good.

But I'm just, I'm just not confident. He, I can't bet on him since he lost to decrepit Clay Gwita. So that's, that just broke, broke me of Michael Johnson forever. And as much as I honestly like Jamie Malarkey as, I'll call him a prospect. He's like mid-20s, I think. maybe it's just that every time he's faced somebody good he's lost but he's you know jalen turner who i think the world of tuned him up uh brad redell a good fight but bradledell pretty clearly won uh for as i'm you know it's just i just don't feel great about it so i've passed on this one

entirely smart man you're a smart man uh i really have nothing else to say on it best of luck if you're taking the dog shot on Johnson, we will see what happens. I mean, if you're taking the dog shot on Johnson, just taken by K.O., right? I would figure it higher, but... I would think that would be your best route. So that's the main card for this UFC Apex 58.

Should be a banger. Let's keep it rolling. On to the prelims. A few prelim bets. We can start it off with this banger, the one everyone asked for, Cynthia Calvio, going up against Nina Nunez. Right now you can get Calvian. Vio at minus 150, Nunez, at plus 130.

The over under set at two and a half. Over is minus 225. Under is plus 185. I have no action on this one. Yeah, this is just a me one, huh? Yeah, I'm a little surprised. Rumors are circling. Rumors are circling.

They are. Yeah, you take in what, Nina Nunez? I am not. Though I am, I am, that was the bet I had had to talk myself out of. I did the same thing. I almost played Nina Nunez. I was very, very close to playing Ninoos. And then I almost went the other way and was like, actually, maybe Calvio is the correct choice.

She's younger and stuff, but actually not that much younger. And so I ultimately decided I don't need to be involved in this. But what I do need to be involved in, I have the over in this fight. Over 2.5 minus 225. That is the other parley piece with the over 2.5. half from the RDA fight. Simply put, yeah, it pays out at minus 108, basically, so pretty close to even money. 100 will get you 92.

And the reason I am taking that is because the last three wins, each of these women have had, have come by decision, either majority or unanimous. They have been finished. Both of them have been finished and have been finished relatively recently. but they are roughly pretty durable and neither of them are big finishers in their own right. Nunes in particular I think is a worse finisher than Calvillo. I simply just don't think either woman can get the better of the other to an extent that they're going to get a finish. So I think this is just going to be a 15 minute kind of back and forth battle.

I think both of them will have their moments. That's why I do sort of like a play on Nina Nunez underdog odds, but I just can't quite, the number's just not good enough for me to pull the trigger on it. But like I said, I think it's a back and forth fight, pretty even scrap. And I think this just goes to the card, so I'm taking the over as a parley piece. Love it. I do think that is going to hit, so I'm cheering for you, obviously. I'm sharing that other parlay piece with you in the main event.

And in general, you know, not to sound like some type of a person, but largely, if you're looking to bet over-underers, finding the women fights on the card and women fights that don't have big finishers in them, like don't bet, don't bet over is on Amanda Nunes. But Nina Nunez, bet them all the time. Bet them all the time. You're going to be a lot happier,

you're going to be happier more often than not. So that's where I'm at. And that closes down my parlay. And I have, it means I only have one bet left on this whole card. Perfect, because I've only got two. So love it.

And I don't think we're on the same fights either. So that's spectacular. I love it. We're not going to spend too much longer here. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, it is a bantamweight bout. I'm in Zahabi going up against Ricky Terseos. I've got Ricky here.

I just think that this is going to be a fight that plays out pretty much on the feet. I know Zahabi, he got the K.O. last time out, but he's not really someone that can rely on their knockout power. Maybe Tersios goes for a takedown, but I really do think that they're going to spend a majority of this fight on the feet, and he's got a 4-inch reach advantage. I think he's just going to put the pace on him like he does everybody else. I think he's just going to outstrike him across the three rounds, and he's just going to win a unanimous decision. Sell me on it, because I'm not opposed to this bet.

I'm not opposed to adding another one to the card. Sell me more heavily because I like Terseos. I think I agree Terseus probably wins it. I'm not in love with this. What did you get the number out? Because the number's minus 190 right now, and I'm not in love with that number. I took a minus 160.

I'd be a lot more interested in minus 160. Yeah, pretty decent line movement there. Yeah, it means off he's got a negative 1.1 striking differential in the UFC. Is that good? Is that good? Yeah, that's decent. Terseus, I mean, he just thoroughly outstrikes the two opponents he's had so far in the UFC, and I think that's what he's going to do again here.

Like, I think he's just going to put the pace on him throughout the 15 minutes. he's got the motor to do it. I think he's just going to be up in his face the entire time. He's going to use that reach to avoid the power shot from Zahavi. And I think he gets it done, man. 29, 28, 30, 27, I think it's going to be a unanimous decision. What are we looking at props here for this by decision or something? Let me pull up some prop lines and take a gander.

I could believe that. It's not like Tertios is a huge finisher, realistically, and also Sahavi I mean he got back elbowed but apparently Ricardo Ramos

just back elbows everybody so you can't blame Yeah that's like his thing That's what he does It's a hobby by I mean

Tursios by decision is plus 145 plus 135 Sorry Well probably You know I'll just because I might as well

add some more I'll add a little baby bed on that I'll add a little quarter unit on Tersios by decision there just Let's go

Just a little quarter unit's never heard nobody Yeah I mean, it doesn't hurt it at all. And if it wins, then you feel, you feel alive because you're at least won. So, sure, why not? I'll, uh, I'll, uh, I'll do that.

And then I can support you spiritually and, and monetarily with my, my wagers. I love it. Uh, so let's go terseos. War Terseos and, uh, War Ricky, let's go. Yeah, let's, I like War Ricky much better and let's land, uh, you know, 140 significant strikes to like 86. Uh, all right, next up. It is a middleweight balker.

Cody Brundage going up against Trashon Gore, Brundage, you can get him at plus 105, Trachon Gore minus 125. I struggled with this one. I thought about playing Gore straight up, and then I said, now I don't know if I trust them that much. Let me see what I can get on the inside of the distance.

Inside the distance is at plus 275. It's actually not available at any books that I've been able to take it out yet, but I'm assuming it's going to come out of a number very similar to that. And I just feel like, you know, with how hard he hits, I don't think Cody Brundage is that great on the feet. His game plan is obviously going to be to come in here and wrestle. I think with the explosiveness, the power, the hips of Treshaun Gore, it might not work out for Cody Brundage. I don't think he's going to be able to just dump him and lay on him for five minutes every single round. And I think if they get into a war on the feet, if Gore is pulling the trigger, that is probably my biggest concern here. You know, if he's not gun shy, I think he can land a shot and knock brundage out. I haven't seen a line on the knockout price, but inside the distance is a plus 275. I actually am surprised Brundage inside the distance

was only plus 200. I guess maybe they're expecting a submission or something. But it's almost plus 300. Yeah, and almost plus 300. A little bit more than a quarter unit. I think I went like 0.35 on this one whenever it does. about. Yeah, I wouldn't touch this fight with the 10-foot pole.

That's why you're a smarter man than me. It's just not, I don't have nearly enough to go on as far as, as Trashon and Gore exists as a fighter. And I mean, there's more footage of Cody Brundage, but I don't, just, this is one just a hard stay away. I don't need to be involved in it, especially when I've got much, much more. more thrillingly fun fights up next. So, uh, yes, you, you are a smarter man than me.

Uh, I'm hoping to get a price similar to that, uh, but still not out yet. So I actually haven't locked it in, uh, if you want to talk me off the ledge real quick. Oh, I, I want you to live your best life because you could be right. I, I just do not feel I have anything close to a comfortable read on what, on what and who Trayshon Gore is as a fighter. Yeah, I don't. And so I'm just like, that's just too many variables that I don't know at all. I'm like, yeah, just pass.

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We'd love to talk, business. All right, let's move on with our lives and do other things. Let's get into the last fight that we're going to talk about here. A light heavy weight bout. It is Kennedy in Czechu going up against Carl Roberson. Right now you can currently get in check with a minus 125. Roberson at plus 105. The over under is set at two and a half.

under minus 125 over minus 105. What do we got here? What are we got here? You're going to talk me into something good? Well, I'm, I have one bet, and I want to have like three more. I haven't made the other three, but this is like, this is a fight I feel like the outcome is someone's getting knocked out in seven minutes or less. Like that is just a thing that's going to happen.

I love that. Because that's what, I mean, both of these men hit, very hard. My bet, I guess, to start is I'm on Kennedy in Chakwu. I got him at minus 125. I am, that is, there's some concern. It's not like the world's best bet I've ever made just because Carl Roberson does have, is a more pedigreed kickboxer. But Kennedy, uh, hits real hard and is just enormous. Enormous. I mean, absolutely unbelievable. that he makes this makes a light heavyweight division.

He is 6'5 and well, he's a well-built young man. Let's put it that way. He's coming off a split decision where he got robbed against Nikolai, Nagamaranu. And then he got knocked out by Don Jung. Like, that's a thing that can happen.

And he's been tapped by Paul Craig, which is apparently a thing that happens to a lot of light heavy weights these days. Everyone. But I think he is, it may just, speed the optics because he's going to have such a decided like such a pronounced size advantage of a carl robertson who is not a particularly large light heavyweight uh and i think he on the feet i think

he can just hit with power i think he throws honestly a lot more i also just like uh what i've seen from uh intruco as a developmentally uh i think he was working kicks a lot better he's improving uh at a rate that i think is good and will benefit him and so getting him at minus 125 feels low because I also think, if we're being honest, it's not been part of his game, the whole takedown thing. But when you have that big of a size advantage, you trains at 4 to Sima, it's a good camp. They know that the best way to attack Carl Roberson is going to be. Carl Roberson offers almost nothing off his back and he's not a great defender of takedowns.

So I think Kennedy just has a lot of options and how he would like to proceed moving. I think he will, like I said, probably stand up, but he also can take it down. So I just like him to win. And like I said, at the beginning, I want to make more bets on this fight because I I'm strongly considering a look at in check who by K.O or TKO. The under at two and a half. What's the line on that right now?

Under two and a half is currently sitting at minus one-twenty. I'm almost certainly going to bet that Because I think that's In fact, I'll just go ahead and lock that one in But yeah And maybe I might convince myself To take a prop run at Kennedy In Chakwu

Because I think he I think this is a really good fight for him I'm a little surprised the line is this close frankly Yeah what do we think of like a In Chukwu at inside the distance what's that line at plus 280

plus 280 I'm sorry plus 235 yeah I mean that's honest you know what I'll put a quarter unit on that too I'll just have all the bets on this fight yeah I think I'm gonna I think I might ride the inside the distance with you

I mean it's it feels like that's just going to happen. This whole fight gives me a lot of concerns just because the odds don't match up in my head at all. Like, I don't know why the under two and a half rounds is so high. That's very confusing to me. Or so even, not like, I would have thought that number would be much more juice towards

the under, but at minus 125, I'll take that. So yeah, I now have three bets on this one fight. Way to go. This is the textbook degeneracy. I came in here with four bets in a parlay. Now look at me. I've got so many bets down. Yeah, I mean, Carl Roberson, all five losses, he has been finished in.

Yeah, that's the other thing. The man does not go to decision all that much. And Kennedy's only has three wins by decision in his career. Six knockout victory. So instead of an ITD, I'll probably just wait until a COProp comes because I don't think he's going to submit Roberson. So I'll just take whatever the extra juice is on the KO prop. I'm looking at KO. I'm looking at plus 250.

Wait, what was I TD? I think plus 235. Yes. Oh, well, at that point, then I'll just take ITD if it's plus 235. You're not getting any extra thing there. Four of Roberson's losses have been by submission. Yeah, I'll just take it. take the ITD at plus 235, then that number's functionally the same.

It is like guys to Marvin Matoria. Yeah, I mean, he's, he is law, Brandon Allen. He's lost to good guys, but I think Kennedy has a chance to maybe not be that high quality. Also, Brandon Allen is a middleweight, and Kennedy and Choku is super not a middleweight. Nine-inch reach advantage. Yeah, he's... Nine-inch reach-advantage against a guy that does not want this fight to go to the ground. Nope. Like it's, yeah, I just think I'm very surprised he's minus 125 and the only reason I can assume is because Kennedy's coming off the two losses even though one of them kind of a robbery and just the kickboxing pedigree of Carl Roberson who wasn't like a world-class kickboxer but, you know, I thought JLB had had some experience in that realm.

Just makes it feel a little closer than it probably is. maybe I'm thinking I might bail on Treschen Gore inside the distance because I haven't locked that in yet and I might jump on Kennedy and Chekwu

inside the distance I don't I want you to do whatever feels right to you but I would say that that's a much better idea personally that's how I feel yeah I think that's what I'm going to do I hope no one stops listening because if you did you missed

that I bailed on Trayshon Gore inside the distance. That one I have not locked in yet. And yeah, now we're riding Kennedy. That serves him right. You got to be here the whole way through, especially in this episode, which is going to be our shortest episode ever. Oh, yeah.

It's sub hour. We might even get a, I don't think we'll get sub 50 minutes. We will not, but we'll be sub an hour by comfortably. That is it, though. Because that's it. Yeah, that's everything. We have accomplished all the things we need to do accomplish. If we did not talk about a fight that you were clamoring to hear from, I'm sorry.

That just means neither of us have a bet on it. I couldn't give you any advice even if you wanted that advice from me, which I don't think you do. My advice is to stay away from Antonina Shevchenko bouts because she is impossibly difficult to predict betting on. That's why I stay in. She seems to lose every time she's supposed to win and vice versa. Yeah. Now I'm getting a weird idea in my head to parley in Shepu inside the distance with Trayshon Gore.

Oh, do that. Just live the fun life. I might... Parlay underdogs. Do the dumb thing. I might do the dumb thing and just like really hope for some crazy things. Let's see what that would pay out.

That would pay out at... It's going to be juicy. Plus 1156. Love it. Yeah, that's stupid, but what's, I might even throw a full quarter unit on. I might just throw a point one unit on it at that point. Just throw a couple of dollars. Let's get silly.

Let's get silly. Find a way to make things up, you know, make things better. That's what game brings about. It makes otherwise, fight cards fun. Kennedy's the curtain jerker, no? No, I think there's. Oh, yeah, Ronnie Lawrence. Oh, yeah, Ronnie Lawrence.

which that's actually a great fight. A very solid fight. Thought about Saeedy DeKalb as an underdog. Couldn't get around to pulling the trigger. I'm too scared of Lawrence. I feel very much the same. He chain wrestles. He's got a motor.

That chin is questionable, though. That's why I'm not playing him. I just had to stay away from it. Fantastic fight, though. Fantastic fight. Yeah, but those are back to back. So Kennedy 2 and then Trachon 3. So, yeah, we'll find out early in the night.

I'll say, yeah. You get to have the, And look, if you hit the Kennedy and you start having regrets, you can always buy out. Once you've hit the bet, you can buy out easily. It's great. Yeah, we'll see what happens. But all right, that is UFC Apex 58. We did it.

We talked for 50 minutes about this card on a hangover from UFC 276 combined with July 4th. I'll say that's a double hangover, big hangover. Combined with PFL6, Kayla Harrison. We did it all. We made it through it. I can promise you this. The energy is going to be ratcheted up next week. We've got UFC Long Island.

I will have boots on the ground, in the island. I will be in Long Island. You know, I find myself more of an in Long Island guy. A lot of people up here on Long Island. A very, you know, heated argument. What about at? Could you just be at Long Island? A new opponent has entered the ring here.

I've entered the argument with at now. Yeah, I'm going to let you in a little secret. So what I do is I ask people, I'm like, are you an in Long Island or on Long Island guy? And whatever they say, I'm like, oh, I'm actually the opposite. Like if they're like, oh, no, it's in Long Island. Bring the attention. Oh, yeah, no, I'm like, oh, in Long Island,

I'm more of an on Long Island guy myself. But most people say on Long Island and then I'm just like, I'm more of an in Long Island guy. Look, friction makes fire, baby. That's how you do it. Just make sure they just do the opposite of whatever people are doing. Yeah, people are passionate about it too. Oh, yeah.

Very passionate. They get angry about in on Long Island. It's, yeah, I was on a Long Island Reddit page. Yeah, and there was like a whole discussion. And like someone said they said in Long Island and they got torched. Like they got torched. It was bad. So anyway, that's my long way of telling you.

I don't just ask a bunch of people. Just people sitting around you in the stands. Hey, you're in Long Island or you're on the island right now? What are we doing here? I can't even lie. I thought about creating a custom shirt that just said it's in Long Island just to make people mad or just in Long Island, something like that. But do you do on Long Island on the back?

So you're making everyone mad. They just don't until you turn around. And then they're like, oh, this guy. Yeah. I'm more of an in Long Island guy. That's what I want to print it on the shirt. But instead, I created a different custom shirt. I cooked up something nice.

That'll be hitting my social media. is you'll see it on the MMAR next week. Really looking forward to that card. First UFC event ever for me. We'll have more bets next week. We'll feel more passionate about them. Huge summer. Huge year.

Huge 2022 overall. Hitting the UFC. PFL's coming to NY in like a month or whatever? I'm going to go to that because I also went to an LFA show earlier this year. So I've gone to LFA, PFL, BELA, UFC. I haven't been to a Bellator yet. So I've been to LFA, a PFL UFC's, but that's, that's, I also, I did go to a WEC, which you physically can't go to anymore. Wow. Wow.

I get to, I get to carry that one around. Yeah, but man, that's, that's big time. You're going to have hit, hit the big four North American orgs. Yeah, I'm truly, I am truly an MMA fan now. Soon enough, Risen, one championship, KSW, a trip over to Poland. is the first thing I'm doing. Like that is, as soon as I can convince somebody to send my ass there for fighting, KSW, baby.

Oh, my, yeah, I'm just waiting for Eagle FC to come up here to New York so I can check that off the bucket list as well. Oh, Eagle FC now is in the mix, too. Apparently, BKFC has really good events. I'd be down to go. I'd probably do that soon. Yeah, I, that sport is, it's an aggressive sport. It gets violent. It is.

And next summer, you, me, no bets, bard, international fight week, baby, let's go. International Fight Week. I will be there in Vegas. I will be there in Vegas. We got a long time to plan for that. We can do so many things, so many activities. So much room for activities. Right now, though, we're focused on UFC 8-pix 58.

That's true. Let's run the bets down and get the hell out of here. Oh, yeah, I forgot. We haven't even run the bets now. I'm convinced we're going to get out of here before an hour, so I'm going to do this quickly. My bets. I parlayed, Saeed and Maghamedoff with the main event for Ziv Dosayos over two and a half. That pays out at minus 118.

I jumped in on RDA at plus 170 with our man Jed here. I got Cowell Baralho. Yeah. A little wolf pack, bulldog bet, whatever you want to call it. I got Jared Vandera by sub at plus 550. I got Malarkey Johnson under two and a half at minus 150. I've got Ricky Tersios at minus 160 And we've just added the dumbest parlay in history on the show

Trayshon Gore inside the distance with Kennedy and Chekwu Inside the distance that pays out at plus 1156 I am going lighter on these on these ridiculous bets But I feel decent about You know like my real ones So we'll see I went light on most of my bets in general Just because I don't feel great about this card

but yeah i have r d a plus 170 the wolf pack wager the underdog bulldog bet i've got barallio inside the distance plus 130 of chase chairman at plus 155 Kennedy inchequ at minus 125 uh i also have the under on the incheco roberson fight at minus 125 and i've got incheco inside the distance at plus 235 i also took fires on chase sherman by decision and followed followed the terseos by decision and then my parlay the Battle of the Raphael's over two and a half rounds parlayed with Cynthia Calviel

and Nina Nune's over two and a half round pays out at minus 101. That's it, baby. It's a wrap. It is a wrap. That's a wrap for UFC Apex 58. We will see you next week.

UFC Long Island. Brian Ortega, yeah, you're Rodriguez. Talk to you then. Love you guys. The Vox Media Podcast Network. Thank you.