MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: The Tom Aspinall Era Arrives At UFC 321

Episode Date: October 22, 2025

The Tom Aspinall era is officially here. This Saturday, UFC 321 goes down in Abu Dhabi, headlined by the first undisputed title defense of Tom Aspinall, who takes on Ciryl Gane. On top of that, UFC 321 also features a vacant strawweight title fight between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Morning Kombat's Luke Noseda AKA Long Island Luke to take a look at all things UFC 321. Topics discussed include whether Aspinall can solidify his hold on the heavyweight division, if Dern can finally claim UFC gold, whether Umar Nurmagomedov can rebound from his first career loss or if Mario Bautista can pull off the major upset, the next step of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 141 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bar. My name is Jed Mishu.

I'm a writer for MAAfighting.com, but you probably know that if you're listening. And this week, it is back to the pay-per-view action. UFC 321 goes down at 2 p.m. Eastern time in Abu Dhabi. It's one of the rare early ones. It's going to be terrific. And joining me this week to talk about things.

at this point I think you've just come to expect it he is the man who joins me for all our pay-per-view events uh morning combat main card minutes own Luke no ceda long island Luke how we doing Jed good to be back as always pretty freaking hype for this card uh top to bottom feel like we got a lot of fun fights on it so excited to get into yeah man uh I love we're just talking a minute ago I love the main card the rest of it's I liked more than when I went to dive into

doing the gambling aspect of it and then i was like yeah i'm less interested in some of this prelims stuff not terrible before we do that let's talk very briefly about uc vancouver because how did it go for you luke i had a treacherously bad weekend yeah uh me as well i ended up losing almost exactly a unit 0.99 units on the main card uh prelims did not go any better uh the one parlay i hit was like over two and a half in chitos a hobby and over one and a half in the main event but other than that. It was a crappy night. Yeah, I just felt good early. My Manant bet cashed, my Dober underbet cashed, except for the Manor bet cashing in the manner it did, ruin the climb. That is right. Climb version 8.0 failed on step four, the over two and a half, which I then

had people come at me and be like, that was a ridiculous bet. Was it? Because if it was going to go, it would have gone because Jasmine Mana hasn't finished anybody since 2021. And freaking Jasmine Jazz DeVisius had never been stopped before and instead she gets stopped in less

than 90 seconds. So at least I had that going for me. I didn't get my hopes up. It was over before the bout even began, basically. The climb is dead. Long live the climb. We start again this week. And Luke, I'm, I'm just

going to let you know. Maybe this is going on tilt. Some people might say, Jed, you're going on tilt because the climb just died. We're doing three. We're doing a three, a triple climb this week. I talked myself out of doing four just to do three. So we've got three climb bets coming up this weekend. We're trying to get right back to where we were heading into UFC Vancouver in one fell swoop.

Hopefully we'll do it. The rest of the event was a nightmare for me. Lost a lot. Again, you shouldn't listen to this show if you're trying to follow my bets. If you were just fading me all year long, you would be making so much money in 2025. A horrific year of gambling. But we persist. And we persist.

As we mentioned, UFC 321, a pretty good card, Luke. Certainly the main card and certainly the main event maybe isn't, uh, it's not the one people wanted. But it's meaningful. It's good. it's the beginning of the new era, the Tom Aspinall, undisputed heavyweight champion era as he takes on Cyril Ghan, former interim champion. I think this is his fourth title fight at this point for Gond.

Heavy weights doing heavyweighty things. And Tommy Aspinall, Aspinall, big old betting favorite. Coming into this, I mean, more money has come in on him since I originally took my notes. but at this point you're looking at around minus you know 360 draft king still hasn't Matt so that's a good price over on draft Kings uh zero gone the comeback around plus 320 uh aspinall three fight winning streak uh got the knockout win over Curtis blades in July of 2024 though Luke so has been well over a year since we've seen him because of all the John Jones tom foolery gone two fight winning

streak, perhaps a bit of an asterisk, a split decision win over Alexander Volkov at UFC 310 that very, very few people think he deserved to win. So with all of that staring you in the face, how are we feeling about this main event in general? How are you feeling about, you know, do you have any action on this main event? Of course you do. You're long on Luke. It's pay-per-view. Yeah. Of course I got action on it. How am I feeling about it? I'll say that honestly when it was first announced, I was extremely underwhelmed. I think more so than most people. As it's getting closer, as now we're in fight week,

I can get pretty excited about this fight. I do feel like, I can't remember if it was the Pavlovich fight or the Curtis Blades fight, but like we've seen Tom Aspinall like, not rocked, but like definitely get caught before. And you're fighting a great kickboxer in Cyril Gahn this time around. Like, there is some intrigue there. On the other hand,

I think this goes exactly like the John Jones fight with Cyril Gond. Like if Tom is smart at all, he's just going to blast a double leg, right away and hopefully submit them in the first round. It's an interesting fight in that sense. Dude, Aspinall, though, lands almost over eight strikes per minute, which is fucking crazy. Also has 100% take down accuracy and take down defense. Not that Zero Gone's going to attempt to take him down, I assume.

But I think he can hold his own on the feet, but I do think, like, he's just going to take this to the ground and fucking submit him hopefully quickly. I am taking Tom Aspinall money line. Got him at the price you just mentioned on draft king. minus 360. He's in a three-leg parlay I have. Feeling pretty confident about it. Confident enough, dare I say, Jed?

Is he one of your climbs? He sure is one of those climbs, buddy. He is, didn't get him at the good price because the book I run the climb through did the price which is much worse. And for, all intends and purposes, the climb is a three-leg parlay this week of all minus 500s are better.

Tom Aspernel is one of those legs. A-1 is a betting. favorite. That one loss was the knee injury weirdness with Curtis Blades. So, you know, barring something sort of incredibly unlucky like that happening. This man has been perfect when Vegas installs him as the betting favorite. I think he could win this on the feet if he had to. It's just not going to happen. This is straightforward. I think this is a horrific style matchup for Cyril Gahn. John Jones is not, is athletic. but not like the most fleet foot dude,

but Gahn was just terrified of him and walked straight back and got tackled. The whole strength of Cyril Gond's game is that he's nimble and agile and he moves like a middleweight. Well, Tom can do that too, so he's not going to be able to like run away from Tom just shooting a double and blast him to the ground.

Tom is not an idiot. Tom, you know, I think there's less pressure on Tom Aspinall than most people think this week, but still, this is, if you're ever going to, lose a fight. This is not one you want to lose as Tom Aspinall because of all the surrounding circumstances. He is going to take the path of least resistance here. Tackle Cyril Gahn. Zero Gond has like a 20% takedown defense rate. It's real bad. And so yeah, I think Tom Aspinall is just

going to shoot, get him down. And so Tom Aspinall is one of the climbs, but I got even more action layered on this fight. I won't give any names away because I don't want to say it. A person whom I respect is all in on Tom Aspinall this weekend. Is a firm believer that he's just going to put the whole bankroll on him. And I'm not a bad choice, frankly, I would say, but I've got my climb bet. I'm also looking at two props on this one, Luke. Tell me how you feel about these ones. One, I looked at, you know, Aspinall by submission.

It's only plus 200, which isn't great, frankly, for a sub prop. I would like them to be a little higher. But you and I both seem to be simpatico here. Aspinol by round one sub plus 700. It's an exacto, but I feel like that is more likely to happen than plus 700 would indicate. That seems like a thing that happens one out every four times they fight almost. That's actually a great point. Like the odds of that happening are way higher than plus 700.

but I'm going to disagree with you in the sense that I think that's great value on just the sub at plus 200. Because he's a minus roughly, we'll say average 400 favorite right now. So you're getting almost 600 points on the comeback by adding the sub to it. So like I don't hate the value on that plus money, Tom Aspinol by sub at any point, a five round fight. Yeah. And so like a plus my issue there is like that's a 33% implied probability, right, for a plus 200. It's like if he's going to sub him, it's probably just going to be in the first five minutes. And they're getting to plus 700.

So I took that. And normally with the price is big, I would half unit it or something, like quarter unit it. I'm so far behind this year on money. And I just think this is a good bet. I just put a straight unit on it. Let's go. If I can catch up seven units on one bet, maybe I can feel less bad come Jan 1. So that and then the other one also fundamentally tied into this.

I am frankly a little surprised. I was just looking to see the under one and a half is plus money at plus 110. Tom Aspinall has only ever gone over the one and a half twice in 18 career fights. Cyril Gan obviously could, but this is basically, you know, betting that Cyril Gan can't keep Tom off of him. I think Tom Aspinall under one and a half probably should just never be plus money at this point in time until he gives us a reason not to. And so I also took a, took a shot on that. So I've, I've got a lot of money tied up into Tom tapping Cyril Gahn out

in the first round. I don't think the under's a bad value at all on that. I'm just, Cyril Gahn has hit the over one and a half in 10 of his last 11. So that makes me a little nervous. But you're right, on the Aspinol side, it should end in under one and a half. Definitely worth just throwing something on it plus money. Yeah, just do a little sumnot. So that's a, Three is the most bets I have on any one fight. It is the main event. So as we do our watch party, I will be locked in cheering on Tommy Espino. Aspenov.

Tommy Espino. Na, nah, nah, nah, nah, and now we can head to the co-mate event, a fight that people are disrespecting,

and I will not stand for it. A vacant women's strawweight contest. As Viena Genji Roba takes on McKinsey, Dern for the belt that Zhang Wei left by behind to move up and challenge for the flyway belt, which we'll have Luke back on in three weeks to talk about that fight. But for now, Vernor-Changiroba, McKenzie, Dern, your betting favorite, minus 165-ish or so, the comeback on Renshiroba plus 140.

Verna, five-fight win streak coming off the unanimous decision win over Jan Jaunan at UFC 314. Dern on a two-fight winning streak, which I frankly forgot. I thought she was just on the one-fight winning streak. I forgot she tapped out a Mende-Hibati in January. I think that was the first event of the year, actually. It was, yeah. This is, of course, Luke, a rematch of their 2020 fight. Five rounds versus three, obviously it's a title fight.

Dern won that fight being unanimous decision, and I suppose, in part, that's why the books are installing her as the betting favorite. Is it finally, Luke? Is it finally McKinsey Dern's season in the UFC? I don't know, dude. Like, all right, you mentioned she won the first fight. 29, 28, all three judges' scorecards. Janderoba won round two on all three judges' scorecards.

Dern one, one and three judges. So, like, doesn't really tell us much there. Like, who had the momentum at the end? It was kind of a back and forth fight. Jangeroba did get her down in round two and controlled her for most of that round, which is how she won the round. You mentioned she's won five straight.

Since their first fight, though. Vyerna, six and one. Dern 5 and 4. So yes, Dern has been more active, but Gangeroba definitely having the more successful run here. Both girls have a negative striking differential, which is never good.

McKenzie does land almost twice the amount of strikes per minute, though. Gingeroba definitely going to want to wrestle here, even against someone like Dern, who's obviously great on the ground. She has taken down 10 of her 11 UFC opponents, including Dern, in their first fight. Also worth noting, Dern went 0 for 5 on takedown

attempts in their first fight, so she couldn't at Janjarova. She's truly one of the worst wrestlers that's ever competed in the UFC. It's remarkable. Yeah. So I actually like Janjeroba in this fight, especially at dog money. I truly, Jed, when I thought of this fight in my head, I thought the odds would be reversed. I was like, oh, I might take McKenzie Dern at plus 130. No, it turns out she's minus 150. Didn't love that price. Given that Dern won their first fight and Jangeroba's only gotten older since then and Dern is like 32 years old right now, so arguably still in her athletic prime. I don't really want to hop on Jandaroba as a dog,

even though I think it is live. Instead, I'm taking the alt total rounds here, the over two and a half minus 250 in that same Tom Aspinall parley. It's the second leg. Jangerobas hit the over two and a half in five of her last six, and Dern is hit it in seven of her last eight. Look, you said some things that were correct, and you said some things that were just stone wrong right there.

What? And the biggest one that jumped out at me is, arguably in her athletic prime. You obviously haven't been watching UFC embedded because McKinsey Dern is yoked. She's in her physical prime, but is she in her athletic crime. That's coming into this fight. Good. I mean, one, credit to the UFC for really leaning into the bit with their thumbnails and

all of the stuff they showed, you know, they're, that they have a position. I just want to say quick, I didn't watch the full. episode, I did see like the one minute snippet of McKenzie by the pool and stuff. That's it. Yeah, but I took that more as, oh, she ain't even out here training. She's hanging by the pool and shit. Like, that makes me lean Janjarova even more. Did you see her traps as she was hanging at the pool?

I wasn't really looking at her trap right now. She looks. Virjanjeroba is just not like the most physical competitor. Dern has always been like sneaky, athletic and physical. she looks yoked uh which also just adds to i've been a mackenzie darn truther forever and i think it was just me and sheen al shoddy were left on mackenzie darn island because as you mentioned you know she has lost four of her last like six fights or whatever that one four of like eight or something insane and you know a lot of people got off after the marina hadriguez fight and i was like yeah but

you remember when she got mount and almost killed marina that was she's she just has to figure it out and then the exact same thing happened it against yon jow nan which was like yeah she lost every part of it but that like three minute stretch where yon jow nan looked like she was gonna die is there every single fight i've tried to quit her and i can't and so me and she now shoddy shout out shan uh are we're living our best life because mackenzie durn is finally fighting for the belt uh she's eight and four is betting favorite, which is not a confidence-inducing run as a betting favorite. But I think she's much more physical.

Verna is arguably on the decline at this point in time athletically. More importantly, and somehow, and it's insane that this is true. Dern is the better striker of the two of them, like purely just in the fact that she does more, which is how she beat Verna the last time. Like in the third round, she simply just threw stuff because that is McKinsey Dern has never learned to be good at striking. She like briefly had a jab for a minute. Um, but she's never been afraid to strike, which is the thing that I was always like, she could do this. She could, in my head, she could always get good at fighting because she had, like the grappling is covered.

We're squared away at that. And she's not afraid to get hit or to throw hands. but she just can't do it for whatever reason it doesn't click in her brain to be good at it but that doesn't matter against Verna

who is somehow worse than her at it and so like she is the better pure grappler of the two she's the worst wrestler certainly

I'd stipulate that but she's a more physical fighter so she's the better athlete the better grappler and the better striker maybe Verna has better cardio

that's sort of if I was in Verna's camp that's kind of where I'd be looking to go for this fight, take downs and try and drag it out. But I think I just, I have to stick on McKinsey, Dern Island. It was I've been here forever.

So I won't quit her. I have McKinsey Dern straight up and another climb bet here, Luke, because the over one and a half comes in at a tasty minus 500 that may have moved. I had to get my climb bit in super early this week because the third leg, which we'll talk about in a little bit here, uh, already has moved. significantly off what it was, so I got it at 500. It is not there anymore. I'm glad I got it in.

The over one and a half here, minus 500, Verna, 9 of 11 in the UFC have hit this over one and a half. Dern 11 of 15 fights in the O.C. have it the over one and a half. Genjiroba is, I mean, basically a lock for this. Like, she's gone to out, she's hit the over in her last, like, seven fights or something like that. and Dern most of her under's cashed were actually early in her career.

She's also hit it in like her last seven or eight fights. I just liked the over. The last one went, Genjiroba is a very good grappler, so I doubt either. Neither woman's knocking the other out on the feet. And their grappling is good enough to, I think, mitigate and make this at least last seven and a half minutes. So that is like two of my climb, Luke.

Let's go. I'm with you on that. I mean, I got an extra round on it, but let's go. Yeah. You got a lot better price. for that extra round. But that's the thing. I don't even hate that.

Like, I think the over two and a half, if you just want to bet all the overs on this, I'd probably not wrong, frankly. Dude, four and a half, I think is minus 110, which, like, that's a great price for over four and a half in this. It's not bad. Let's move on to the feature belt.

Of the big three, this is the last one. And the rest of the main card's pretty good. But Umar and a Megamette off, Luke, he makes his return to, the UFC last we saw him was UFC 311 when Maravd Valleishvili won a unanimous decision over him handed him his first loss he takes on Mario Bautista umar as you might expect big betting favorite as high as minus 800 at some spots which is really really healthy uh if you're looking at the general consensus seems to be in the minus 625 600 650 range

and the comeback on Bautista plus 400 is roughly what we are looking at here. Batista eight fight winning street. Enanosition went over Patchy Mix, U.S.C. 316. That fight he regained his name. I, as a bit, took his name away from him. He was no longer allowed to be Mario Batista because he robbed Josealdo. And so he was Mario Wattista. He got one of his names back from the patchy mix win because that was a great performance.

Andy was fun. Can he do it again coming into this fight, though, Luke? I think this is perhaps the biggest intrigue. I feel like I know what's going to happen one way or the other in the main two fights. This one, how does Umar rebound? You know, how does he look coming into this? And is, uh, is Mario Batista for real? I think it's a little bit of like, Wario, I think, Wario is legit.

But dude, it's Umar. It's Umar. He's the second best fighter in the division. Come on, Marab. I mean, Marab's the fucking king. But, you know, he's the second best fighter in the division. Obviously a great wrestler. From the Abdulmanap lineage, averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes, including getting five plus takedowns in three of his UFC fights.

Batista's been taken down by half of his UFC opponents. Six of his 12 UFC fights he's been taken down. You don't think Umar's going to be able to get him down. Of course he is. Batista does land more strikes per minute, but he also gets hit twice as often. And when you're on your back, I mean, you're not going to be able to get many strikes off. And yeah, he's on that eight fight Winstreek, which no knock to him.

It is very impressive, but none of them. And I mean, none of them came against a ranked opponent. So now you're stepping it up to my number one contender. I don't think it's happening, bro. I think Umar's going to be too much for him. I'm taking him as the last leg in that three leg parley. So it's Aspinall, Umar, over two and a half in Dern, Janjarova, all three together, plus one, 15. It's incredible that your three leg parley is basically my con.

just with one alteration because Umar is like three of the climb. I got him at minus 500 earlier this week. Obviously the price has changed and my breakdown is basically the exact same. He's the second best band of weight in the world. I will pick him to beat Marab should they fight again. I think people, because it was so impressive that Marab just won the fight, right? Like he was a massive underdog in that the expectation was this was a coronation. for Umar and Marab marob robbed him.

Uh, I think people have a misremembering of how close and competitive that fight was. Um, you know, Um, um, probably like all of the rounds save for, I think it was the fourth that Marab really kind of started to put the pace on him. But even in the fifth round, right? Like they were just, it was a very competitive round that Marab edged out. And so, like, I, Mara Batista gave an interview, like, earlier this month or maybe even last month. He was like, Marab, Maraub released the blueprint for how to beat Umar. And I was just like, what the fuck are you talking about, dude?

What are you? Maraub, like, one, barely won a, like a decision over five rounds. And he has the best cardio in the history of the sport. And he's incredibly durable. and he's a super good like an incredible wrestler none of that is shit you bring to the table my guy like what do you mean

he late are you just a div I watched you who just hold Jose Aldo around the waist and pray for a decision that you got I think Mario Batista is a very good fighter I think the idea of like I'm going to put a pace on Umar and think that that's gonna work is like like that's okay good luck man like

The dude is, Umar's arguably a better striker than he is. And he's, as you said, he's certainly a better wrestler. He can take him down sort of at will. That was the issue. Umar thought he was going to be able to take Marab down at will.

And actually Marab was just like, nah, bro. Like that, Marob won that fight almost exclusively off his takedown defense being exceptional. And I got to tell you, man, that ain't your game,

Oreo. So, uh, I have a lot of confidence. Some people I've talked to this week think this. This is where the climb 9.0 might fail. I think he is, yeah, I think he's the, you know, he, by definition, is the second best Bannam White. He can't be better than Marab.

But like I said, I would pick Umar to beat Maraub in a rematch. Um, I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I'd pick him to, I believe he is the guy. You give him a second crack at it. He'll come through and do it this time around. And so I certainly think he's going to beat Mario Batista. Dude, I think I'm more confident, because we basically have the same parlay. I think I'm more confident in Umar than any of those other legs. Like over one and a half, sure, you have that in the comane.

But like, I'm pretty close to betting my life on the over one and I'm. So I'm the most confident in that one, which is probably means it's going to be my undoing. Well, Aspinol is just the only one that makes me nervous. And not for like how the fight's going to go necessarily. It's just it's heavy weight. Like, yeah. That makes me. We literally haven't seen Tom Haspinall fight for more than a collective six minutes or whatever.

Yeah. Anything could happen. Yeah. Aspiral is the concern, which is also why the price is the lowest. True. That's my belief anyway. But I'm excited. Look, if Mario Batista wins, credit to him will be an incredible win.

He will be a deserving and obvious next title challenger. And if he wins this fight by hook or by crook, I'll give him back his full name. He can be Mario Batista again. And if Umar wins, he probably doesn't get to fight for a title after beating Mario. Probably has to fight somebody else. I don't know who that will be, but he will probably have to get another fight before he gets another crack at old Marab de Valshvili. Let's move on back to the heavyweight division as Alexander Volkov takes on Jailton Almada in a heavyweight contest. We're going to have to talk about this one for a while, because I have thoughts.

I'm confused. I want to do some things. I'm not doing some things. But Volkov is a significant underdog coming in a round plus 185-ish or so, 190. Jailton Almeida minus 225 as your betting favorite. Volkov 4 and 1 over his past 5 should be 5-0, lost a split decision to Cyril gone. That was poopy. He should have won that fight at UFC 310.

Almeida, two-fight winning streak since the lost to Curtis Blades, T-Koed, Sergey, VVAC at UFC 311 back in January. So there is, for those, you know, keeping track at home, you can do a UFC 311 parlay with Almeda and Umar and I think one other person last fought at UFC 311. So that's on the table if you're looking for gimmicks. Almeida, 8 and 1 is a betting favorite loop. But Volkov, 4 and 4 is an underdog. He's not bad as a dog here.

So how are we feeling about this heavyweight fight? first of all eight and one as a favorite for almeda's blowing my mind because he's only had nine ufc fights so he's been a favorite never been a dog and you mentioned volkov and he was beating the shit out of curtis blades until he wasn't dude you mentioned uh volkov being four and four as a dog did have the pavlovitch fight i took uh volkov in that so i i feel like i have a soft baby it was beautiful right and i feel like i have a soft spot for him didn't take him against cyril gone last time strongly considered it pretty happy i didn't consider i did rob and i was i did and i was furious. Yeah, and you should be because that's bullshit.

Dude, obviously, Almeida's going to look to wrestle here and Volkov does have like, I'm never going to say good takedown defense, but he's got decent takedown defense. You know, it's not elite. It's better than average. It's better than average. And I think it's gotten better in recent years. He did stuff all six takedown attempts on that recent four-fight win streak he was on. So, you know, he's getting it done.

Yeah, but he also gave up some takedowns to noted wrestler, zero. We're not going to mention that, Jack. I mean, I was going to skim right past it. But anyways, Volkov does have the big experience edge here. He has a former Bellator champion. And in the last five years, he's only lost to the two guys in the main event, Tom Aspinol, Cyril, Ceron. Meanwhile, six of Almeda's eight UFC wins have come to guys no longer on the roster.

So, I mean, who is he really beat? What are we talking about here? Jed, I mentioned to you pre-show before we went live that I took a lot of bets here that I don't feel too confident in. And this is kind of where it starts. I'm taking the dog here. I'm taking Alexander Volkov money line plus 200 got it on Caesar's shout out just feel like I got to take the value there it's heavyweight he's on a nice run don't really trust Almeda that being said Volkov probably gets subbed in the first round but no we'll see what happens

buddy I was fully prepared when I did my first skim through I was like I'm betting Volkov 100% I'm betting Volkov and then I just sat down and I actually thought about it on the plus side have you seen the lettuce I saw you like tweet about it it is out the man's flow is unbelievable on the embedded I mean

he looks like a Viking warrior it is the best and like he's slowly been growing out like just like he you know there's the the Volkov hair meme of him fixing his hair between rounds he can't do it this time because it's gonna be pulled back in a ponytail like it is how can you better

against a man with that sort of swagger. I don't know. And I was ready to bet him purely on that. And the soft spot in my heart of cashing the Sergey win, of being robbed in the, the gone win, the fact that gone's challenging for the belt and like it straight up should be Volkov, even though I know Volkov has already lost to Tom. He is the guy who deserved that crack. But then I just thought about it.

And there's a, the big blocker and the reason I don't have a bet down and I don't don't think I'm going to unless Volkov like if money keeps coming in and I'll made it if Volkov gets over 200 I don't have access to him at over 200 then I'll take the shot but I can't help but be like oh yeah so Alexander Volkov honestly overachiever like a top seven six heavyweight for sure really good career right like you know M1 champ Bellator champ like a very he's been doing this for a long time at a high level and is very good. Just look at the dudes he's lost, too. Setting aside the second Cyril Gaon law, it's like Tom Aspinall, he's a super

athletic guy who knocked, like buzzed him and then subbed him. Cyril Gaon, super athletic guy. Curtis Blades, super good wrestler. What would you say Jilton Almeida is super athletic guy who shoots a real good double? And like, that's the issue for me is. I can, in my head, I can make the case for Volkov, but I can't help but think I'd be sitting down Saturday afternoon and the big, long, kind of lumbering dude who's not very athletic, but

like makes up for it in other ways. Jailton's just like, lull, low ankle pick, you're on your ass and the game's over. So I can't do it, but I don't want to bet Jelton Omita because that's not fun. So I'm, I'm just not betting it and I'm sad about it because I wanted to be on Volkov so bad dude well that's why i ended up taking him i was in the same boat as you i like couldn't really find a bet i loved on this fight fight does not go the distance is like way it was like minus 400 and i could totally see this going the distance weirdly then i was like oh maybe over one and a half which is like minus 115 and i was like dude i don't know if it goes over or under i could see both so i just said

fuck it let's go with the dog i look i get it if i if i was just putting a bet down to have some action i would be on volkov for the fun of it again if the number moved if money pours in on Almeda. The other thing that, like, I think people just forgot because we all just memory-holded after the blades loss. Like, Jonathan Almeida, that win made me more confident in him because prior to the blade's loss, I was like, well, who's he beaten? He just takes down a bunch of guys who suck.

And then he just, he ragged old Curtis blades. I know he ultimately got T-K-Oed in the Travis Brown position, right? take down against the fence elbows to the head that's just one of those things that can happen occasionally at heavyweight i think and like i think we're all probably just forgetting the jelton al-mada has a lot of good attributes and he's probably going to win this fight but i don't want to bet him so shout out volkov i hope the flow carries you like samson in this one let's go uh the last main card fight a light heavyweight contest is alexander rockich takes on azamat murzikanov and this is Undeniably the fight that I just have the least idea of what to expect in this one.

I think I know what could happen, but which of the two, very uncertain, which is probably why it's lined so tightly. Mersikanov minus 120 Rockich, even money, roughly. Rockets on a three-fight losing streak has not won since 2021. recently in October of last year at UFC 308, he lost the unanimous decision to Maguadankaliev, Mirzikanov, undefeated, obviously 5 and O in the UFC coming off contender series, stopped Brinson Habero at UFC 316 in June.

I know everybody really is impressed by knocking out Brinson Habero if you were a top 12 dude. Not entirely his fault. He was supposed to fight Johnny Walker in about that I was the most excited because Mersikanov, he kills people and Walker, he dies super well but instead he pulled out,

Hibero stepped in, he, you know, took care of business in the first round. How are you feeling about this main card opener loop? I think like you and like the odds makers, I kind of like can't really get a read on this and not to double down. I love on this fight by the way. Okay, I'm interested to hear it.

Not to double down what I said on the last fight, but this is another one of those that I'm like, yeah, I kind of just took it. Their striking stats, pretty identical. Rackage is going to have a seven-inch reach advantage here, so maybe he can utilize that. Hopefully he can utilize that. He has fought a way better competition in the UFC. You mentioned he's lost three straight, but they all came to champions.

And not only that, all three of them are still in the top four of the division. So, like, they're still in their prime, all of them. Merzokanev, he does have the win over Alonzo Menefield. Alonzo Menefield ranked number 14. So, you know, he hasn't fought anyone in the top 13. I mean, big step up in competition here, even if Rackage is on a skid. I know the momentum is in Mersikanov's favor, but I think I got to go to the experience here. And I took Alexander Rackage, got him at plus 102.

I'm riding with him. I don't have much confidence in this, but I, and I just realized I took both Alexander's on this. So I probably should have just parlayed him. I mean, for sure. Yeah. I getting him at plus money, I think is fine because I think this fight is a coin flip. And so you're, you know, you're getting 0.02 of value or whatever on that. It's not awful.

You mentioned that Rockich has only lost two, you know, guys in the top four, right? And if you look at his resume, yeah, his last six opponents are dudes who have fought or won a title. That's a pretty good run, except for his look, Teagra Santos isn't good. And I won't ever believe he's good. He was the title challenges. Anthony Smith may be a legend, allegedly. but he's not good. And so it's just like,

I don't know, bro. At least at the time he got Anthony Smith, Anthony Smith was not like totally washed yet. And the Tiago Santos is like, I mean, he was washed. He was so recent to his title fight that he didn't feel washed, but I don't think he ever won a fight again.

So like, he's only lost to the best and he's looked competitive against the best, which is the other thing. That's the thing that get people behind rackets is he's lost to the best, but he's looked competitive against Magerman Akhalyaf. Yeah. You know, he was beating Yerry until he wasn't, but that's also basically everybody who's ever fought Yeri was beating him until they weren't.

Alex is just the only dude who finished the drill. Jan Blahovich, you know, arguably he was winning before the knee injury. So like he looked competitive against these best dudes. But that's not winning, and he hasn't beaten dudes. that I would consider good. And that's the other thing, like, that is, it doesn't give me confidence in him. I need to see him beat somebody that I know is good to, like, to have confidence in betting him here. Especially, you know, he hasn't want to fight in four years.

Merzikanov is, you know, he's been on a year-long layoff. Merzikano has the momentum and kills people. He's, you know, Merzikonov, slight betting favorite. Four and O is a favorite thus far. A lot of things in his favor in general. again, I think this is a coin flip. Here's the bet I found that I really liked because I wanted action on this fight because I feel like there was something and I couldn't figure out how to get it because all the lines just seemed reasonable. Some books, not every book, but a lot of books, especially as we get closer, offer no decision bets.

So you bet the fighter. I know you know this loop, but for those at home, you bet the, you bet one side of the action. But if the bout goes to the judge's scorecards, the bet is the bet's, the bet's, pushed. It's null and void. It's canceled out. I've got a Merzikano of no decision bet at minus 180 because I don't think Rockich is finishing him. Six of 10 of his UFC fights for Rockich have gone to the cards. You know, he has finished dudes like Jimmy Mano and Devin Clark, but he's more prone to go to the cards. Merzacanov never been stopped. The way Rockich fights, he's not trying to get into slug him out brawls, right? He is, you know,

a little bit more tactical using his footwork. I think that that could totally work against Mersikanov. But if it doesn't, it means Mersikanov iced his ass. And so I feel like I'm getting an opportunity to score here with a minimal chance to lose. Because I'm only losing if friggin, if Rockich kills him. This is the only way I'm losing. Otherwise, the back gets pushed. So Mersikanov, no decision at minus 180.

How do you feel about that? I like that a lot. I was shocked at a few of the lines on this fight, like you were saying. Like all of them were kind of intriguing. I believe fight does not go the distance on this is minus 140. And I think I ran the numbers. It was like 75% of their combined pro fights of knock on the distance. They're giving you that at minus 1.40.

That's normally like a minus 500 line with that kind of hit rate. So I think there's a lot of value on this fight. I just can't get a good read on it. So just riding with rag. It's hard to have a read. I love my bet. I'm happy about it. Let's move on to the preliminary card.

And I'm not entirely sure this is the bout order. So forgive me. The bout order is just mixed up in different places. I went with the best one I could find or the one that I have at least some level of confidence is around correct. And we will start with a lightweight contest that is very recently added to this card. So I suspect it won't end up being the prelim main event because it's so recent. But maybe it's Nazaret-Hakparais. taking on Quillen Salkild.

Functionally, a pick-em fight, basically minus 1-10s on either side of the board, but a slight lean towards Hawk Prost in some locations. Hawk Pras five-fight winning streak. Split decision went over Esteban Riebovich in March at U.S. Vegas 103. Most people don't think he won that fight, but maybe not a robbery, as it were. Salt Kild coming in off Contender Series,

He's 2 and O in the UFC. One last thing on Hock Pross before we go to you, Luke. He is on a five-fight winning streak. I did mention the last fight. Even the fight before that, a lot of people thought he lost to Jared Gordon, which he won a split decision. There's a real world where he is on a two-fight losing streak. I kind of think that that is why the price is where it is,

because Salkeld obviously some talent and a prospect. Hock-Pross much more experience here, much better-known name. How are you feeling about this one? Yeah, I also feel like the layoff for Hawk brought, not that it's been a layoff per se, but that five-fight win streak is over the span of three years. He's not exactly the most active fighter out there. Sal killed, you know, maybe it's just the Australian in me, but I'm like, hey, man, is this the next guy coming out of Australia?

He looks pretty damn good so far. Three Zufa fights, eight takedowns in two of those, one being the Contender Series, one being his most recent bout, and then the one sandwiched in between there, a 19-second knockout. So looking pretty damn good. Hackpress does land more, but he almost gets. He gets hit almost twice as often as Sal killed. I feel like Sal killed will probably want to wrestle, considering the averages over eight takedowns per 15 minutes.

But Nassarat hasn't been taken down in six straight fights. He's a solid defensive wrestler. And he's stuffed 14 takedowns in that span. So like you said, very solid. If he can't get him down, I could see a world where Nassarat just beats him on the feet, dude. I'm not going to go against my fellow Aussie, though. But I feel like the odds being a pickum are kind of crazy.

I feel like you get good value on whichever way you're leaning, obviously, but like NASRAD especially, you're getting like a veteran here, pretty fucking low odds. I'm gonna instead take the over two and a half. I got it at minus 200 in a parlay. Hackbras is hit in eight of his last nine,

and Sal Kild is hit it in three of his last five. I don't hate that at all. And my read on this is pretty with you. I like Saul Kild, okay, coming off Contender Series. He's well, he's very well-rounded, and he's super young. I think he's still just like 25. The concern is he's not like a great athlete.

He's not an awful athlete, but I don't view him as a high-end prospect because athleticism is just like a cheat code in the sport and I don't think he has enough of it. That's not a huge concern against Hock Prost, who himself is not like an exceptional athlete. But I think Hock Prost is supposed to be a bigger favorite. it. But this price has been moved down because of the questionable judging in the last two fights.

And so I think that that, I think the price is baked in for the potential that Hawk Prosting. I think that's, so I think, ultimately I think this line's about right. The, the, I don't have an, a bet yet. The other thing that's, this fight is on like 10 days notice. They sort of just threw it together last minute. and so I don't know how prepared people are for this, you know, to fly to Abu Dhabi and get into fist fight in less than two weeks is that can kind of throw the chaos hammer into play here. My plan on this one is I'm just going to wait. If Hawk Pras gets to plus money, I'm going to take him at plus money because I think if we sort of flattened things out, all things considered equal.

He probably should be the betting favorite. Saul killed wants to score takedowns. He's very good at defending them. He's just a little more active on the feet. I got the veteran savvy and experience. But at a pick of odds, I'm not going to do it. If he gets the plus money, I'm jumping on Nasraat. I might tell that too.

If he gets plus money, take that. But again, I feel weird going against Alckel. Hey, is your Australian buddy? I get it. Do we have another Aussie coming on? Or he's just the levels. He was at Perth because he was competing in Perth. That's right.

Talk about good old Louis Sutherland soon. But we have a misdialial. middleweight contest. Icarov taking on Juno Young Park, the Iron Turtle, makes his return. Park on a two-fight winning streak. Could be a seven-fight winning streak, but for a split decision loss to Andre Muniz.

Alaskarov, three and one in the promotion, coincidentally, knocked out Andre Muniz in April at Kansas City. Alaskarov, R. Minas-250, park plus 200 or so on the odds. How are we feeling about this middle-weight? fight loop. This is another one of those fights that I like don't really know which way to lean. Icrum does land over seven strikes per minute, but he does get hit a lot. I could see Park

exposing that. I'm not too high on Icrum, dude. Maybe it's the Whitaker fight. I don't know. Park does average about two takedowns per 15 minutes, including getting at least one takedown in seven of his nine UFC fights. Alice Garev, though, does have a hundred percent takedown defense. He's only been shot on once, though, so we don't really know how it holds up. Too many unknowns for me here with Alaskarov through five Zufa fights. We still haven't even seen them outside around one. So that's where I'm at with that. Like I'm just not too high on it.

I'm not going to pick a side instead just root for violence, baby. I'm going fight does not go the distance at minus 140 in a parlay. 65% of their combined pro fights have knock on the distance. And both guys have been finished multiple times before. So I feel like it's definitely on the table. And it's kind of a way of taking Alaskarov without having to take him, you know? Like if he's going to win, he's going to win by finish. Yeah, I'm in on Alice Gerov.

I know the Iron Turtle is a fun gimmick and the Inchonet is a big fan of him and he's a very competent fighter. I think Alaskarov just is the exact fight you think he is. Good but not great. You know, he was an underdog to Whitaker and Whitaker just batched him quickly. But he's three and I was a betting favorite. I think this is a fight set up for him to be competitive but be victorious. You know, in Abu Dhabi, he's obviously. obviously the guy that's, he's the A side of this matchup.

You know, he's much more active on the feet. I think he's more dangerous on the feet than Iron Turtle as well. I think he just has a little more pop there and is much better wrestler. And I think that can also carry him as well against the Iron Turtle if he needs to. Iron Turtle, you know, he's gritty dude. He finds ways to win a lot. So, you know, there is that. But, uh, MMA math is stupid except for when I want it to matter.

and one of these dudes beat the shit out Andre Munez and one of them got robbed by Andre Munez and the judges. So I'm going to take the dude who beat the shit out Andre Munez.

I've got him in a parlay. I got him at the minus 245 price. It's a two-leg parlay. Certainly not a climb. We're not putting him in the climb action, but one other fighter that I've paired him up with for a reasonable parley payout.

And we keep moving on because I just looked at the clock and we have taken our sweet, sweet time on the top set of these. Fortunately, about five of these next seven fights, I got minimal things to say about, except this one, because this fight rips.

This is arguably my favorite fight on the weekend. It's certainly my favorite non-main card fight of the weekend. A lightweight contest, Ludovic Klein takes on the Tush, Roveski. Klein, minus 135, Robechke plus 114. Klein wasn't a four-fight winning streak

before losing, and this is critical, Luke, he lost to Matush Gamrock in May. And now he's facing another Matush in Rebeshe. Rebeschi, one and two of his past three. UD. lost to Chris Duncan back in August at U.S. Vegas 108. I've tipped my hand, Luke, but can Klein get over the Matush hump this weekend? Dude, I love that you pointed that out because I'm a lot of.

already leaning that way. You mentioned Klein coming off that loss to Matush, Gamrot. That was a main event technically because Aaron Blanchfield, Macy Barber fight never happened. So there you go. Coming off a main event loss. Rambetsky, though, where am I? Has lost two of his last three. They were barn burners, though.

Dude, this guy is all action. Dude, so fun. They're both so fucking fun. Right? He's literally, yeah. This fight is going to be awesome. Yeah, it really is. Klein's going to have a six-inch reach advantage.

He does get hit less often than Roundbetsky. I don't know how much of that matters against someone like Rambetsky, though. He's going to be in your face, landing two more strikes per minute. Average is almost four takedowns per 15 minutes. He's also gotten a takedown in all seven of his Zufa fights, including two plus in four straight fights. Klein was taken down in two of his three UFC losses, including six times against Matouche. Gamrod is last time out. One of the better wrestlers in the division, but still, I'm with you, Jed.

I'm taking a shot here on Mateus Rambetsky Moneyline. plus 1-14 and just hope that he can set the pace, push the action, implement a smart wrestling-heavy approach, which I know he won't. I know it's going to just stand and bang, but it's going to be a lot of fun. That's it, man. Look, I was going to be picking Matush anyway, just for the gimmick of it. But I do think he has a really good chance to win this fight. You know, Ludovic Klein can't beat guys named Matush who can wrestle him.

You just can't do it. Can't do it. It's like the sun rising in the north. It doesn't happen. Can't be done. Ludovic Klein can't win this fight. I'm on Rebesheki. I will say, as I was really doing my like, let's get stupid and dumb gimmicky things.

Do you know the last time Rebeshke fought? Do you know, you know, when he lost to Chris Duncan? Do you know the fight that happened immediately after that? Was it the Elvis Brenner and... No, because it was the co-main, technically, of U.C. Vegas 108. Vegas 108 was Hung Sung Park losing to Tatsuro Taira. So if Rebeshke loses,

it will be the second time in a row he's lost immediately before a guy named Park competes and probably loses. Oh, wow. So if you're going real deep dots, if you're looking for the connect the dots on the cork board, you know, the Illuminati is real.

So keep that in mind, Matushabeshki is the move for me. And we will continue moving. This, I think, is going to be the fastest fight we talk about. Abdul Karim Al-Sawadi taking on Matthias Camilo. Al-Sawati around a minus 120, Camillo, around even money.

Both dudes are one in the UFC. Sawadi lost to Loik Rodzabov in March. Camillo lost to Gabe Green in May. I have no relevant information to pass along about Camilo. the only thing I'll say about Saladi I'll just give away my pick and you can go whatever you've got here Luke I don't have any action

basically because I just don't know shit about Camilo other than what I've you know the thing my guess in the dark is that Sawadi you know I would favor him to win because I am some level of confident that he's at least UFC caliber and I just truly don't know enough about Camilo Sawadi was like an okay dude coming off contender series

a couple years ago hasn't fought much, which is sort of a problem, but I know he's at least got some skill and some at least belongs or is not ridiculous to be in the O.C. And I can't say that about him. I also like admittedly don't, excuse me, don't know much about either guy. El-Sawaddi lands about three more,

three times more strikes per minute, but he also gets hit about three times more strikes for a minute. Camillo did look to wrestle in his debut. He got two takedowns while Al-Sawati was taken down four times in his debut. So maybe Camillo's just going to wrestle him here. Truthfully, because I know nothing, I'm just going to take, when it drops,

a Camilo spread bet. I'm not going to take him straight up as a dog. I'll just take the spread, hope that he's the better of the two guys. But again, I really don't know much about either. Love a good spread bet. Let's move on. Heavyweight division, another fight that I think we're going to breeze through pretty quickly here.

Volta Valker taking on Louis Sutherland. Valker, three-fight winning streak, all by heel hook, most recent. recently Kenny Nunchuk, Kennedy, and Zuchuku at UFC Nashville, suffered prey to the heel-hooking machine that is Volta Valker. Louis Sutherland making his UFC debut. He was supposed to debut at UFC Perth. I don't remember. It's a Taffa, bro.

Yeah, it was one of the Taffa bros, Justin Taffa. Taffa pulled out. He did not make his UFC debut. Now he is making it. I think he's the Levels Fight League champion or was. I don't know a goddamn thing about Louis Sutherland other than he certainly believes in himself. And he did. Apparently at some point in his past has trained with Johnny Walker because he threw up an IG post of him with Johnny Walker being like, hey, sorry.

Sorry what I'm about to do to your bro. Love you, bud. And I was like, that's a pretty good gimmick at least. But yeah, Volta Valker is a minus 300 betting favorite. Sutherland's plus 250. Walker's huge and he keeps heel hooking dudes and that's fun but like that train's going to run out eventually there's no world in hell in which I'd be betting Walter Walker um you know Louis Sutherland I just don't know much about him uh I briefly told with the idea of looking at you know the under

one and a half it's plus money but I think I'm just going to stay away I got plenty action this weekend already all right well I like you don't know much about Sutherland I saw he fought in Bellator and PFL, but I think he was winless in both promotions. Sure was. They were separate promotions. Slim Trilisi. Yeah. The duty lost two, I think in PFL.

I think that was the Bellator one. Either way. That was the Bellator one. Yeah. I don't need any stats on Sutherland, though. Because you know why, Jed? I love a good fucking gimmick here. Walter Walker's obviously going to win by heel hook again.

Like it's written in the stars. If I could bet that, I would bet that for sure for funsies. Oh, they won't let me bet that. I guess I could bet Volcker by sub, but that doesn't feel the sense. Well, see, I went like way safer with it because I know the heel hook's going to happen, but I just like, I don't want to be that guy who bets on it. So I'm taking fight does not go the distance. Or sorry, I'm taking Walter.

Wow. Walter Walker inside the distance. Excuse me. Walter Walker by finish minus one six. I think that's what I wrote him inside the distance. Walker by sub is plus one pin. Like it's not even a good price. Dude, it's plus money.

I'll take that. I mean, I don't know. Just in case we see a K.O. here, though. I'm a little worried. So that's why I'm taking him inside the distance. I'm not too worried that Sutherland's never been finished either because he's never fought anyone like Walter Walker, right? Walker's huge too.

And Sutherland is like Sutherland's in coming. He's going to try and put hands on him. That's my like on the very brief knowledge that I've acquired. And I don't know if, you know, if Walter Valker's like his brother, he might just get blown up. I was going to say the man did lose to Lucas Breske. So I guess we got to take it. Ruggis Breske, such a, just lost to everybody except Volta Valka who keeps heel-hooking dudes, which is incredible.

But I love me a brawler and a leglock man. Shout out, Ken Shamrock. Hell yeah. We've spent enough time on this nonsense fight. Let's go to a fight that I think is actually quite fun, a featherweight contest as Nathaniel Wood takes on Jose Miguel Delgado. Nathaniel Wood, betting under a plus 125 or so. Delgado, ground minus 150 is the favorite Wood. Two-fight winning streak.

Five and one at featherweight. important to remember since bumping up to the featherweight class five and one a unanimous decision went over morgan shahle in march at ufc london got the home ground there uh delgado it's a weird one for this fight to just be happening here i don't really know why it's happening at this thing but uh is defender would train with aspinall is that like it i don't know if you i mean they're obviously both uk guys i just don't know like other why would you put wood versus delgado and abodabi i don't know But Delgado two-fight win streak looked really good coming off contender series, finished Hyder Emile in 26 seconds at UFC 317.

How are we feeling about this one other than it's probably going to be fun because Nathaniel Wood is usually a good time and Delgado has looked lights out in the UFC thus far. I literally wrote on my sheet here. This has the potential to be a banger. I'm really excited for this. Besides Klein Rambetsky, this is probably second most excited on the prelims. Definitely. Oh, unwell, there's a special fight that we'll talk about next thing I'm excited about for dead. Yeah, all right.

I know exactly what you're talking about. Delgado actually has the stat advantages everywhere here. Absolutely everywhere. He's going to have a five inch height and reach advantage. He lands more strikes per minute. He gets hit less often. He averages almost five takedowns for 15 minutes, despite being known for his stand-up so far in the UFC. Also, all 10 of his pro wins have come by finish, and Wood has been finished four times before.

but something is still telling me that Nathaniel Wood is a live dog here. Maybe that's because he cashed the dog last time against Morgan Chariere, and I'm chasing that high. He does have six times the UFC experience and almost three times the amount of pro fights. I think he'll look to wrestle because Delgado clearly hits hard, and we've seen Delgado taken down twice in the UFC by Connor Matthews, who by the way is 0 and 3 in the UFC. I'm just saying, I'm taking a flyer Nathaniel Wood money line plus 125. I don't hate the flyer I considered it it's hard for me

to feel a lot of confidence in Nathania would despite the fact he looks so good at featherweight and it seems to be a better weight class he's so small every fight he's so undersized at featherweight in a lot of respects he's just a thick boy um you know Delgado can shoot takedowns he's obviously not known for but his contender series fight he got like four or something um and the you know he is he's much more dangerous on the feet, I think, outright than Wood is. And if he can take him down, I mean, that's basically how Mohamed Naimov beat Wood, by the way. He took him down a bunch. So I kind of

think this line is just right, which is surprising because I wasn't super high in Delgado coming off Contender Series. I thought he was a well-rounded dude, but just like didn't really see the huge upside. And perhaps in part he's shown some upside because his matchmaking has been, let's call it generous, right? Like, Connor Matthews wouldn't call them great. And Hydra Emil is a guy who, uh, I also didn't think was good, but sort of just kind of overperformed off contender series. And then Delgado hit it got him. So Delgado might be better than I gave him credit for, but I'm still not sold on him. So I don't want to take the price there. I have been flirting and I've circled it and I can't click the submit button. The over two and a half here,

year it's around minus 115. Theogato basically doesn't go over. And so that's why I think the price is what the price is. But Nathania Wood almost exclusively goes over two decisions. I think like eight or nine in a row for him. So I'm considering it. We'll see if I can pull the trigger. As of now, I have not.

So that's where I'm at. But this fight is going to be really fun. I'm looking forward to watching it. Hell yeah. The over two and a half would make me nervous. I'm not going to lie. Yeah. That's why I haven't been able to click it.

I, in my head, it's a good bet because Nathania Wood has gone to decision in like genuinely eight straight fights, I believe. But can't quite pull the trigger. Tell you what I could pull the trigger on. A bet in this fight, a heavyweight contest. We are going to try and move quicker so we can get this done. Three fights left to talk about. Hamdi Abdelahab takes on Chris Barnett and what's going to be one of the weirdest, stupidest, awfulest things you've ever seen of a heavyweight fight. Hamdi, a big betting favorite, minus 360, Barnett plus 285.

Hamdi, the unique experience of being won one and won no contest in the UFC because he had a decision went overturn for drug use. He then, after that, got popped again and sussied for two years. So he's fought very little despite being in the UFC for a while, kind of wild that the U.S. he kept him employed all that time. He is coming off the first loss of his career, a loss to Muhammad Usman at Bacca. back in June. Barnett also hasn't fought in over a year basically. He lost to Kennedy in Zuchuku at USC 308. He is two and three in the promotion. Luke, I think this fight is going to be terrible

and glorious and bad. And I was looking earlier. I honest to God, almost like, I thought I was going to be looking at this for a climb bet of the over one and a half in this fight. It was like, I can climb that. The price is minus 175. So I just bet the over one and a half straight up at minus 175. Chris Barnett hasn't hit the over a lot in his career, but like they're just going to be fat and tired really quickly in this fight. I was just going to say, Hamdi's coming off that Moe Usman fight, which is just like heavyweight over written all over it. This to me is just as heavyweight over. Hamdi's gone over in all of his fight. That's what I mean. Like this to me goes the distance no matter what unless we see like a beast boy flashy ass k a k o i don't know where yeah like that's it which jed

that's where that's where i'm going with this i mean no stats needed i'm taking a flyer on beast boy plus two eighty five fuck it it's heavyweight show me something and it'd be way more fun i mean everybody loves huggy bear um and homdi you know i know he's a former olympian or whatever but just all the steroids so yeah but no one's upset uh yeah i think this fight's going to be an awful heavyweight slog and I can't wait for that over one and a half at minus 175 to cash. I genuinely could still even after I looked at the price was like I could just also climb with that and then and that's basically like in itself that's like two and a half three climbs on its own. So like I we we considered a lot this week. Let's move to um it's not the last fight I have

action on. Sorry I have action on the remaining two fights. Osamaat maximum takes on rich sorry, Mitch Raposo in a flyweight contest. Maxim minus 330, Reposo plus 270. Mac, both dudes on a two-fight losing streak right now. Maxim, his most recent loss was to Tagir Ulan Bekhov, or is Raposo lost to Sumadherjee, a UFC 314 split decision, but I think it was the right decision at that time. Luke, how are we feeling about this flyweight one? I feel like you got to trust Maxim a little more here. Both of his losses. did come to ranked fly weights. You mentioned Raposo's last loss

came to Sumadairji, who was on a three fight. Losing streak going into that. Both these guys do like to wrestle. Maxim got at least two takedown in all three of his UFC fights, and Raposo got six takedowns in his last fight. But both guys have a negative striking differential

and like a decently bad negative striking differential at almost negative two strikes per minute. In fact, Raposo lost a very close split decision to Sumer Dergi in his last fight. 15-minute fight, he landed nine significant strikes. That's pretty anemic. Maxim's going to have a six-inch reach advantage, but let's see if he even utilizes it. I feel like this is a tougher fight to call than the odds make it seem, but I still lean with the odds-makers that Maxim's probably going to get it done.

But I'm going to stay away. I'm going to take the over two and a half at minus 170 in a parlay. Both guys have hit it in three of their last, or sorry, three straight and in all five of their combined UFC fights. Sad day for what was once a proud flyweight undernation. I don't hate that I'm on Maxim he's the other parley leg tied up with Alis Garov

I'm on him for a couple of reasons the first one his losses have just come to better up right Ullum Bekhov and Charles Johnson are better than Andre Lima and Sumadherjee and so thing two

I have somewhat of a gimmick but I also kind of believe it if the guy has a difficult to pronounce name and a fun hat he's probably pretty good and Maxim's name isn't that different

but he still does have a fun hat. So that gives him some bonus credit. But the, really the thing that salts it away that makes it an easy call to parley fodder with him, I don't know if you're aware of this, Luke. You probably are. You're smart, man. You know a lot of things. You know something that Mitch Raposo's never done?

Want to fight in the UFC? Want to fight in the Octagon? Because not just the UFC, sir. He lost on contingencies and the ultimate fighter. You put eight sides around that. motherfucker and he can't win a goddamn thing. I don't know if you know this, but the cage in Abu Dhabi will have eight sides. And as a result,

Azat Maxim's going to win that fight. So I don't know, I don't know what the term is. It's octophobia, but he cannot win when there are eight sides to a cage. Put him in a circle. Maybe in a square he might be okay. That's not what's happening this weekend.

So, Azip Maxim, tie him up with Iqram al-Skarov. And we go to the main. card opener, or not the main card opener, the opening bout of the evening, a women's strawweight contest as Jacqueline Amram takes on Mizuki Inouye Amram, big betting favorite minus 440, come back on Inouye plus 340. Amiram, 4-5 winning streak right now. Good little run through the strawweight division coming off a submission win over Pollyanna, Vienna at Kansas City. Inouye, 2 and 1 in the UFC coming off a unanimous decision win, but I say coming off very loosely because that

win came in September of 2023 over Hannah Goldie. So she has been out of action for over two years. That is quite a long layoff, which probably explains to some extent the price tag on her, Luke. How are we feeling about this one? This one's so tricky, dude, because Amram, you mentioned she's on that four-fight finish streak. Three of those came to girls who are currently on a three-fight losing streak.

And the other one came to a girl who's no longer on the roster. So like really coming against no one. A new way, on the other hand, fought some decent competition. Her last four losses came to three title challengers and a former champion. She's also won three of her last four. But like you said, she's only fought one time. She's happened so long ago. In the last five years.

When you say three of her last four, the third one, like the first one of that final four was 2018. Yeah, you know, she's- COVID hadn't happened yet when two of those wins came. See, she clearly took like COVID off or something because she's, she's just missing that 2020 to like 20, 20, 23 range. I feel like she was one of those fighters didn't want to fight in COVID. So let's hope that, Jed, not a long layoff for like, oh, I'm not training reasons. Just, oh, I don't want to fight during COVID.

I was honestly just, I should be better at this. I was honestly just like she probably had two kids. She had a kid. That's why she was wrong for three years. She had another kid. I'm just making shit up. But, I mean, that seemed right to me. All 10 of Amarim's pro wins have come by finish.

but Inouye's never been finished before. I feel like Amram should win this, but I'm not picking against a Serralongo trained fighter here. Let's go. Not at these odds, at least. Amiram, too pricey for me. How about this, Jed? Over two and a half at plus 100.

Inouye is hit it in five straight fights, and Amiram is only hit it in two of her last five, but like I said, in a way, never been finished before. Buddy, how about that? I got it at plus 110. What? Let's go on the same page. Look, you can't.

I don't think you should, like, I think Amram is the better grappler, but anyway, has never been finished, like you said. You can't bet Amram. Like, this price is just enormous for Amram who's fine, but, like, he's good. I can call it good, but she's not great. And in a way, you know, the two-year layoff is what, it's the monkey wrench and all this. It makes it all hard to sort of predict. But, you know, you can't bet on, anyway, off that level. You just can't bet on somebody who hasn't fought in two years.

It's an insane thing to do. So can't pick aside here pretty obvious to me, but I like the two of the over two and half because it's plus money for not, probably not. But let's have some fun of the opening bout of the evening. I think that's the best place to get your money down this evening. So boom, that is it. That is UFC 321 in the books. Uh, Eddie hot arena Abu Dhabi.

Main card, I think starts at, uh, 2 p.m. I think the prelims start 10 a.m. Eastern time. So going to have an early Saturday for us, the rare, rare one. And then, oh, we do. I was saying, do we get one off? No, next week. We're back to the apex.

For the first time and a long time as Steve Garcia takes on David O'Nama. And then we go to the apex again for something that's arguably an even worse card than that. Before UFC 322. And that will be the best card of the year. One of the best cards, I think, that's been. been put together in quite some time. I'm very excited about it. So with that, Luke, tell the people where they can find you.

Anything you got going on now is the time before we skiddle. Let's go. I got a new episode of Prop Quiz dropping on Friday. No spoilers on who's on it. No spoilers who's on it. Do have a new $100 tournament. Did I not make the tournament? You didn't make this one, Jeff, but you can be in the next.

Oh, no. I can't believe I didn't make the tournament. I have multiple backers in. But either way, prop quiz dropping Friday. I'll be doing a watch along as well Saturday for the full card so you guys can tune into the prelims with me before joining MMA fighting later on, obviously. And then what else did was I going to say? Oh, MK Friday. Oh, no, MK's tomorrow.

MK's tomorrow, buddy. Today when you guys are hearing this. MK. Wednesday, 11 a.m. pregame preview. UFC 321, Chuck Mindenhall. Let's go. This is terrific and exciting.

I'm sad. I could not join MK this time. Hopefully I haven't burned any bridges. I would love to join you guys for 322. All the best. bridges are burned. No, I'm just got to... It's 32.

Oh, that's a fight card. I'm trying to go to that. I put it in for creeds. I'm trying to be there. I mean, you should. That would just... Why not? Absolutely.

That's a hell of a fight card. I would be excited about it. As for us, it's the same as always. Obviously, a little bit weird just because it's an Abu Dhabi card. So things are, you know, stuff like Media Day, all that's kind of moved around. But it's our normal schedule. We'll have a preview show Friday. uh, we'll have a BTL Thursday.

We have a watch party on, on Saturday. I don't know what time it's going to start. Might get started a little earlier than normal. We'll see. Uh, I've got three climb bets. Let's,

I, it's starting to add up. I, I was spoiled because of the one climb that went 21. I was like, oh, this isn't that bad. Um,

but, you know, I need to put together at least a run to feel good about myself again. We haven't gotten even close to double digits since the, the big, run. So hopefully this is a start of one. I've been trying to implement climb bets during my watch along for an entire card. So like you have to do every single fight. Oh, now that's a fun thing. So the first time I did it, Jed, which was probably like two months ago, we made it to fight number

seven. And I was like, hell yeah, this is great. I don't think I've made it past fight two since then. Dude, when I first embarked on this, I knew that it was a fool's errand. I was like, obviously I'll never get close. And then literally on like the third one I ever did, I was just suddenly at 21. like oh maybe this is easy why haven't i been doing this forever yeah obviously like this is just smart and now it's just like oh lose lose lose like i can't i still i still cannot believe i like i was so confident in the over two and half for monaan jazz division i too i was like oh this is this is bank it and then we go to 321 and i'll have a couple and it was like no she got knocked out immediately I was like, God damn it.

I had the same bet, too. I had the over-stool. So stupid. It's so stupid. That's it for us, everybody. Thanks for tuning in. Luke, thanks for joining us. And we will see you at Vegas, whatever the hell, number card that is next week.

Love y'all.