MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: UFC 280 Hangover, Making The Most Of An Uninspiring UFC Vegas 63

Episode Date: October 26, 2022

Following the massive UFC 280 fight weekend, the UFC is back with another Apex offering, UFC Vegas 63, and that means the No Bets Barred boys are back as well, with all the best bets for Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen. First, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew recap their disappointing weekends from UFC 280 before jumping into their bets for this weekend. UFC Vegas 63 is a tough card with a lot of close matchups and plenty of dog-or-pass fights, but Conner and Jed still find a way to get a handful of bets down each, including continuing to ride the Flyweight Under and Heavyweight Over bets that have treated them so well recently. Tune in for Episode 22 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another episode of No Betts Bar, this time for UFC Apex. 63. We're really getting up here in the numbers. Calvin Cater and Arnold Allen in the main event. I mean, it's a huge fight for the featherweight division.

Big impacts on the title implications. Beyond that. Is it? Is it even a big fight, though? Can we just talk about this for a minute? because look we got a lot of stuff to talk about and we can hop into it in a second. I have absolutely no issues with what happened at UFC 280. I didn't love it beforehand, but I'm at least on board with Alexander Volkinovsky challenging for the lightweight belt now.

They've sold me enough okay. But this is the problem with that because this fight is awesome and I'm still here for it this weekend. But this fight matters so much less right now as a result. of this past weekend because it ain't, the winner isn't getting a title fight. The winner is maybe going to get an interim title fight, maybe. And that really hurts this weekend. Yeah, I don't even know if they're going to do an interim title fight too,

because I feel like they would just go to Volk and be like, hey, man, like you're going to do 145? He's like, yeah, give me a challenger. And I think it would be between Yair and Josh Schmidt. Like, I feel like, I feel like these guys, there's going to be a 145 title fight. and then another one, and it could be one of these guys. That's the thing.

It could totally be that, but. And when is that? December 2023? It's like it's a lifetime away, Connor. It's like because you don't know if Volk's going to get injured. He is 34 now. Like that's going to happen. If Volk wins the belt, then who the hell knows what's going to happen?

Like there's so many things. And again, I'm, I'm off my corner of hating Volk moving up just because I don't need. need to keep bitching about the same things over and over, I guess, really. But this fight this weekend, if you hadn't done that, if the winner, like, let's say Arnold Allen on a 37 fight win streak, whatever obscene number of wins he has in a row, comes out here and does something nobody else has done and finishes Calvin Cater and gets on the mic, and I know he's not a big call for a shot, but what if this is the time that he gets on and says, I just finished the dude that nobody else's ever done?

Max Holloway couldn't finish this man. I've won 10 in a row. I'm the dude. I will go to Perth. You can defend your belt in Perth in your home country against me. Let's go. He maybe could have elevated himself to a title fight with a big performance. And now it's nothing.

And so the only thing about this fight is the merits of the fight itself, which are plenty. It's a great fight. But the stakes have been that the legs have been taken out from underneath him because of 280. Yeah, I'm also just a huge run on an Alan fan. We can dive into all this as we get into the card. But that is UFC Apex 63. We just described how the stakes have kind of been watered down. And, I mean, beyond the main event, it is, as we say around here, it's a tough, it's a tough hang, especially coming off of what we just had.

You have the distraction of, you know, Jake Paul Anderson Silva. Bellator does not have a great card this weekend either, but Bellator, Italy. It was really bad. Vasilia Lomachenko is going. Katie Taylor's fighting. There are a lot of things going on in combat sports, and I would argue to say the one thing that I care about in the UFC is the result of the Calvin Cater and Arnold Allen fight.

But we can get into that in a second. Let's look back on the weekend that was. UFC 280, the incredible card. Some people don't think that it delivered. I'd probably say depth-wise, it didn't deliver. I felt like once we hit, Well, what do you think? Once we hit Bilal Brady is when, like, the intensity got cranked up.

Yeah, and that was when it was always going to, because for as good or whatever as the card was, there were six fights that were good. And then there was some solid filler. You got Maham Makaaya of a good prospect worthy of paying attention to. Krilov-Oz-Demir at two top ten light heavyweights. There's some rounding out pieces. But that six-fights stretch, the main card plus the pre-lim main event,

that was the meat. that was the main course. And the truth of the matter is the card was bad. Like top to bottom, it was bad. But the main event was awesome and there were enough other things. If the main event is good, everything else kind of because it's the last thing. You go out on a high note. So it's okay.

If I was having this conversation with some other people in the NBA fighting the other day, if the main event had been swapped with the co-main, if Aljo versus Dillershaw was set to be the main event and was, this card would have been roasted to infinity if that's the final image of the night is that absolute Fuster Club. Yeah, I mean, the way, yeah, I would agree with you. I mean, the way that Aljo got him to the ground, and then it was like, oh, DJ looks like he's hurt,

and then you got the confirmation that he was hurt, and then it was just, I mean, one way traffic is a understatement. Yeah, I mean, it was, it was over before. it even started, as they say. Jan O'Malley, however you feel about the decision, Bangor. Bangor. Loved that fight.

Very exciting moments throughout. Very close fight. However you feel, who won it, I mean, I think both of us scored it for Piotr Yan. I could see the one and three to O'Malley, but banger of a fight. I absolutely loved that one. Yeah, man. It's a great fight. We got enough good things from this card.

The main event was great. the feature band-in-way fight was great. Darius Gamrot was good. Not great, but good. It was a good fight. Good, but to see Ben-Neil do it. All week I had this thing in my stomach telling me Ben-Neil was going to win that fight, and he ended up doing it. Yeah, that dude is, it's a real shame that he's probably never going to fight for a lightweight title at this rate.

But, you know, great performance from him. Belal's performance against Sean Brady was good. And the rest of the card was not. were the free portion of the card was it was worth the price of admission of zero dollars. Yeah, yeah, Petrojan and Dobson let down on fireworks. I can't believe that fight was that bad. I really can't either.

Mahayev didn't look as good as I expect that he still gets the win by finish over Malcolm Gordon. I mean, we almost started with a knee technicality with Carol Hosen. I was so... We were texting about it. Stanzah almost paid off. It almost paid off. It was so close. If freaking Lena Landsberg had just said, yeah, I can't do this, she might have gotten the DQ win,

and we would be two for two on Costanzas. This scientific experiment would have a lot of momentum, as it was, still almost got a draw out of the damn thing. Frankly, I think that we should have gotten a draw. I was pretty surprised that it was a majority of decision. I thought it was going to end up being 28s across the board, but, you know, close, close, but no cigar. My girl, man in Fioro. Out Chukagian's Chukagian?

Yeah, that fight was tough. It wasn't when you're cheering for Fioro. Number one contender now. Let's go against Grasso, and let's see if we can set up a title shot. She absolutely won that fight. and the I tweeted it on the night and my overwhelming thought

leaving that fight was yeah I don't think Valentina Shepchenko's losing any sleep about the I don't think so either 125 right now yeah it's I think what their plan is

and I think you know rating putting Firo at one I think what they do is do a little Nunea Shifchenko and have Fioro and Grasso

fight for the top spot who is the biggest threat Taylor Santos, obviously? I don't even think Tyler Santos is. You think they rerun it, it's a blowout. I do. I think Santos came with a good game playing, fought her ass off and is better than I thought she was.

I've rewatched that fight a couple of times. I do not believe that the headbut was the actual factor that was the game changer in that fight. I can be wrong. I'm not saying this effort like I'm a thousand percent sure. But moments after the headbut, Valentina lands a head kick that like clearly jacks up a Santos and I think that that was it and I think I also think to some extent Valentina just kind of got on our game you know she's just like

all right well I need to need to start fighting better and did I think going back in she probably runs that one down but I would say that if they don't do Nunez Shevchenko they will just run that competitive title fight back. Either way, we're getting Furo Grasso. Both women seem to want it. I'm impressed by the fact that neither woman is like aggressively calling for a title shot. They're like, yeah, let's take one more before we get in there with the champ.

We could use a little more seasoning before we throw this one on the grill. You want to know the truth too? I think Fioro does almost the same thing in that fight against Grosso. Oh, yeah. I think that fight is going to... I think the most solid. likely path is Furo gets a title shot and loses a pretty decisive fight to Valentina

Shevchenko unfortunately. I think that's the most likely. I could see maybe, I could also see Furo having to rely on her wrestling a lot more against Grososos got decent boxing, but I largely agree. I think what we're heading for is is Chevchenko beating Tyler Santos or them doing the Nunes fight, and either way,

Shevchenko beats Mann and Furo sometime in the Mets, middle or late next year. Yeah, I mean, I'll be cheering for it. You never know. You know, shock the world. That was 280, though, the undercard and the rest of the main event. I mean, main card, the main event.

Islam, Charles. I mean, what else can you say? I know you've been on your victory tour. It's a great one. I guess it wasn't as pronounced my belief in Islam, but obviously, you know, it looks like I'm going to cash that future bed. You sure are. Islam's round one, two, and three.

A great bet. I did not think he'd get it done so quickly. The way that he handled himself on the feet and just like how quickly it went from, knocks him down, fights over, it's terrifying. Like if you're in the lightweight, like, division, I just, I mean, all the talk was like he hasn't fought anyone, no one in the top five. He goes in and fights the guy. that has been beating everyone and just dominates him. She kills him.

It was what I thought would happen the whole time. I've watched that fight a bunch since then. It was not competitive, like, in any regard. It wasn't like a total... First round was clear as day 10-9 Islam. Yeah. It wasn't a total, like, ass beating, but it was not...

There's nothing to say that Charles really won any moments of that fight. Like, he... Make it Fighter A versus Fighter B, it's, you know, it's just like a simulation run through. You'd be like, oh, wow, Fighter A dominated this fight. Yeah, and it's one of those things where I was like, oh, that's exactly what I thought it would look like. And I don't ever need to see them fight again. Like, Charles obviously comes out and says, I'm going to get the belt back.

That's just not going to happen because he will never beat Islamakajov. Like there wasn't, he wasn't maybe fighting the best fight of his life, but it was so very clear why. that like he just has no he has no way to do the things that he is good at and wants to do against is a Makachev he is completely nullified and then Islam just took it to him I get was a they a comprehensive win for Islam Makachev because that dude is the best light way in the world more like at worst one of the five best fighters in the world like at absolute worst he's won the five yeah I mean I'm with you there uh I personally some people don't want to see it I I'm hyped up for Islam Volk.

I mean, at the very least, it's just going to be scenes on scenes on scenes in Australia. I mean, when what, down under hits and Volk makes his walk to the cage, like people are going to go absolutely bonkers. Yeah, I mean, they sold me enough. I still, it would not be the fight I would make given my choice just because both men have a lot of people I would prefer to see them fight against. their own weight class, but I get while we're doing it, and I'm okay with it. And if we can just get this one out of the way, then we can go back to everything that's right. Because I understand that I am like one of ten people that would be salivating over Islam versus Benile Darius. I think, I think Benny Darius is the toughest fight for Islam. And he's probably, like, that's not

going to happen for like a year, probably if it ever happens at all. And I, I, I, I, I'm pretty confident in Islam's ability to just sort of do the thing against Alexander Volcanovsky. As great as Volcanovsky is, I think he has some real limitations in this fight. So it's less appealing to me than for others because I'd also love to see Volk fight on Allen or Calvin Cater or Yeh Rodriguez or Josh Emmitt or more guys in his weight class. But I get why we're doing it. And I'm not here to yuck everybody's yum. It's obviously what's happening. And I can be on board for that.

Yeah, because I mean, I tend to agree with you. I think this is a favorable stylistic matchup for Islam, especially with the size disparity that there is between them. Yeah, I mean, in all likelihood, Islam is going to go out there and do something somewhat similar that he did to Charles and end up, you know, just dumping Volk down and likely getting a finish before the five rounds are over. But this is M.M.A. Insane things happen. Volkanovsky is Volkanovsky. And if something were to happen and Volk pulled it up, off, it would be one of the most electric scenes that we've seen, Volk becoming a double champ in Perth, Australia. I mean... It's very true. Just having the potential of that maybe possibly happening is enough for you to sell me on the

fight. It is my, the negative part of me just looks at the opposite end of it, which is I really, I think the betting line is probably good, like at minus 400 or whatever. like I think that's pretty right. And so then you're you're setting up your pound for pound great champion to take an L in his hometown. Like that's because I think that's just what's going to happen. And that's a bit of a bummer. But again, I get what we're doing.

And I'm not going to try and fight against the rising of the tide here. It's what's happening. Let's do it. And maybe Volkinovsky can prove me wrong. I don't think he can, but maybe he can. If he does, it's unbelievable. And if he doesn't, what you're saying, I think that. That moves Islam up to pound for pound number one, most likely.

Now you have the new age of Khabib. You have this new dominant champion that has that aura about him as he goes along with Kibib. So I think at the end of the day, it's a win-win in the UFC's eyes. Yeah, it's good enough to get it done. And so that's what's going to happen. And it's not what I thought we'd were the position we'd be in. But, you know, there's certainly been worse places for the UFC and for us as fans the last few years than us getting two. two of the top five-pound-for-pound fighters fighting, fighting each other.

I'm down for it. But that's a problem for us to tackle in February. Right now for this weekend, October 29th coming up, we've got to deal with UFC Apex 63. So let's just dive right in. Let's just get ahead first into this. Let's start with the main event. So excited. Can you hear the excitement seeping out of me?

True story. True story, Connor, when I look. to this card for this was like, oh, well, I guess at least I have three locked in bets, so I don't have to do too much dig and define content this week. I had already bet on Arnold Allen. You know, I'm spoiling it, but I had already bet on Arnold Allen and had already bet on Chase Hooper. Those are two bets I've had locked in for a minute, just lines that I liked that

sort of popped off to me right from the start. So let's start there on the main event, Arnold Allen, Calvin, Calvin. Cater. We alluded to it earlier. This, this fight has seen some heavy line movement since the odds drop right now. Arnold Allen currently sits after sitting for about a month and a half as the underdog. He is now the favorite at minus 120 on draft king sportsbook. Calvin Cater coming back at plus 100. I mean, it's, it's pretty much a pickum. The over under is set at four and a half under plus 112 over minus 148. Yeah, I mean, I said I took Allen. I took him. I took him when he was a pretty big dog. He was sitting there for about a month. I took him at plus 160. I loved

that line. I love that bet. I'm also, I'm just biased to Arnold Allen. I'm just going to come out and say it. I like Calvin Cater. He's a fantastic striker. But the persona that is Arnold Allen, I just love it. Just the dry British humor, the way that he gets in there and fights, he's a killer. I mean, you talked about the wind streak. Nine straight wins in the UFC has yet to lose. He could make it a double-digit win streak here. He's 18 and one all time in his. his career, I'm biased towards Arnold Island. It's just plain and simple. I'm a little biased as well.

I love getting him at 160. I'll be honest. So I'm bet on Arnold Island by decision at plus 240. Nice. Because Calvin Cater is... Doesn't get finished. He can take 499 significant strikes or whatever it was against Max Holloway and not get finished.

Yeah. If that beat down from Max Holloway ain't going to finish you, nothing is. You're just, you're made of... some alloy of adamantium and mithril. Boston's something. There's something in the water in Boston. Yeah, some sturdy stuff going on there. So I took Allen by decision because plus 240 is a substantially better line than Allen at

minus 120 right now. But I will be honest, if the line keeps moving, to me, this is a pick and fight. And my pick of Allen is some combination of the line is so juicy at plus 240 for by far the way he's going to win if he wins. The fact that I, too, love Arnold Allen. I find him charming, even though I recognize that he doesn't have that bombastic personality that usually draws people in. And just the biggest part of this for me is projection.

And this is where you can get into the most trouble betting, or at least I certainly have historically. Alan's 28, and his last performance was the best of his career. I've been really high on this kid for a really long time. I have him super highly ranked in the MMA fighting global rankings, the only rankings that matter. Only ones that matter. Only ones that matter. And I am projecting that it's his first time fighting twice in a year and like forever.

He looks so good. I think this might be where he ascends or he makes the leap from good guy in the division. Like that's a guy who's going to challenge to that's a contender. I think this might be the fight. but that is largely projection. If I'm going what I've seen on tape, this is a pick-em fight. It is incredibly possible that Calvin Cater just boxes him up. He's a better boxer and can just win three of five rounds because Calvin Cater has unreal cardio.

There's zero quitting that man. He's got good boxing. And in a five-round fight against the guy who's not a huge finisher, too, like that just creates opportunities. So if the line keeps moving towards Allen, I am probably going to buy out on just a cater straight bet if he gets above plus 100. But since I think it's a pickum, there's no value on cater. And I do think there's value on or by decision at plus 240. So I took that.

But again, if the line keeps moving the way it's been, I'm going to get both sides of this with a cater, you know, plus 120, plus 130 straight and just take the small edge. in the middle. I mean, they had a future line on this up since, since March, since his went over, over Dan Hooker. And he sat at 170 for, plus 170 for six months. That seems really high too. Yeah, like drop down to plus 160. Was that 160 for about, for about 13 days, about two weeks, down to plus 140. And he's just slowly dropped all the way down to now being the favorite. I, uh, yeah, man. This is the most, like, this is the definition of pick him fight to me. That's what I thought.

I think it's going to be great. He's been training with the champ in Leon Edwards. Always helps to train with the champ. I mean, got to, you know, rising tides carry all ships. It's got to give you some sort of energy in there. So yeah, all right. We'll both be riding with Arnold Allen. I'm in agreeance with you.

I think it goes long. I parlay pieced over one and a half, the classic C. Burks move. Oh, that is the most Conner Burke's bet. I mean, I love it. Min is 400. Can we just, copyright that, the Seaberg's bet?

The Seaberg's bet. Let me get the main event five rounds over one and a half that likely goes to a decision. Yeah, I mean, it's just, it's parley fodder at its finest. That's such a, of all the things I've learned from you in the year we've been doing this, the over one and a half parley piece is, is your, it's your best thing by far. If I think a fight's going to a decision, you can bet your sweet ass. I'm going to be taking a look at the over one and a half as a parlay piece, especially if it's a five-rounder. There's something in my brain that's just like, oh, they might go 25. Seven and a half is nothing. I love it.

I don't have any parlays down for this card. So I'm just going to file that one away. Honestly, I kind of just want to bet the over two and a half at minus 250 instead of the one and a half, but I may build a parlay while we're doing this and see where it takes me. Because I don't have that many bets down, but maybe you've got some more out there that will entice me to build a robust parlay for us. Yeah, I can feel you in as we go. I mean, another thing about the over one and a half, it's always funny.

I'm always sweating it out. And then it ends up going the full 25. I'm like, what was I ever even nervous about? Before you possibly is, I'm sweating it out. See, the problem is I've been parlaying gimmicks lately, and there's no gimmick on this card. There's no father's playing parlay. I know. There's no Rodriguez parlay.

Like, it's, I don't know, what do I do? How do I parlay anything going on? I'm not going to lie, this, this card lacks fun. It lacks, uh, it is very, it is very lacking in fun. I mean, it's got Andera Lovsky on it, for God's sakes. Um, yeah. All right. That's all you need to say, frankly.

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Let's go to the co-main event or, you know, as we like to say around here, the second of the last fight. The penultimate fight. Yeah. This is not a co-main event. This is a penultimate fight. No, it is not this. In the words of the great Alexander K. Lee. This is, I don't even know if this would be put on a pay-per-view, but this would be like a, you know, first three fights tonight on a.

Dude, this is a good, this is a fun fight. I will say this. Fight's very fun. This fight is not meaningful in any substantive way. No, not at all. It is 10 means going up against Max Griffin. Right now you can get Griffin for minus 180. Tim means going back at plus 155 over under set at 2 and a half over minus 170 under plus 140. I don't have anything on this fight. Neither do I. I was hoping you had something to convince me. I looked at Max Griffin, but the thing that I've been trying to do on these on these fight nights, these apex fight nights especially,

that I find myself regretting once Fight Night comes and I lose bets is like, do I like, do I really want to trust this guy with my money? Like, do I really want to trust this fighter with my money? You don't want to trust Max Griffin? Do I, finish that sentence. You're telling me you don't want to trust Max Griffin as a minus 180. So you really just need the inflection. You don't want to trust Max Griffin?

I mean, yeah, I just, I think he's probably going to win. I don't know. Dirty Bird could do something weird. I almost took a shot on Tim Means, just because I mean this very seriously. Who is the best fighter that Max Griffin has beaten? He almost beat Neil Magny? But he didn't. So who is the best guy he beat? How old was Carlos Condit when he beat him?

Washed. 37 and washed, yeah. I mean, Carlos Konda is the best name. Yeah, best name. At the time he fought him, not in any respect the best fighter he beat. Ramees Brahimash? I think the answer is Mike Perry. Ah, yes, yes.

And that really should tell you, like, I don't, every time he has fought somebody good, he has lost. And Tim Means is not good. Or like, Tim Means is not great, but Tim Means is a very solid guy who has been around the block forever. And just he knows how to compete. He knows how to get gritty and win rugged dog fights. Tim Means has lost to most of the best guys he's fought as well. But he also at least has some good wins. Not like a ton of them, mind you.

But Nicholas Dalby's a decent win, you know. John Howard at the time was an okay win. Like he's had some fights that are of value and useful. Tim Eames also has a win over Mike Perry. He does also have a win over Mike Perry and also a loss to Neil Magnet. So there's a lot of MMA lining up here.

And that's why I almost took him just because like in my head Max Griffin is the faster, more dangerous striker and Tim Means is pushing 40 and starting to look a little bit at that. But I did,

we were talking about it off air. I do so much worse on paper views than on fight night cards, and I honestly think that a lot of it is on fight nights. I have the discipline to be like, I just don't need to bet this fight. There's no reason to bet this fight. Whereas on pay-per-views, I'm like, I'm going to crunch tape for six hours,

and I'm going to find the line. Whereas this one, I watched a couple of fights. I was like, I don't have a feel for this. I don't want to keep digging into this to find the angle. F it, I just won't bet. So it's a doggar pass for me. just because of the line, but I'm not, I'm just not putting my money on this one. There it is.

Maybe you shouldn't either, unless you really feel strongly one way or the other on them. Especially coming off a bad week too makes me less inclined to do this, right? Yeah. Because I got, I didn't lose as much as I thought I did in the moment because I had a bet. Yeah, I had a bet on Benny Darius, the underdog odds. I had Islam into so many different things that he got me some money back, but I still lost, like four or five units his past week. Yeah.

I lost a little bit under two. There was a moment after the Yon fight then I hadn't been able to do the math in a while. I was like, oh, God, I could be looking at like eight units down. That is what I thought, too. Yes. And then like when I did the math, I was like, all right, losing less than two units actually kind of feels like a win right now.

Yeah. I mean, Islam. It's all about perspective. Yeah, Islam was huge. The Islam win. I think I had him finishing two parles. I had fight goes the distance, finish one parli. I mean, and then I haven't counted it towards my record, but cashing the future is going to be big.

Yeah, Islam did me a lot of favors with that win. Yeah, but coming off 280 where I lost four units, it's just like, you know, maybe reset. I don't need to go. I don't need to swing that wide this weekend. It's not going to bet on this penultimate fight. Next up, though, speaking of swinging wide, it is Waldo Cortez Acosta. 7 and 0 coming off the Dana White Contender Series going up against Jared Van dera.

He's got his back against the wall right now. WCA just made that nickname up for him. You can get them at minus 1.95. Jared Van dera coming back at plus 165. Originally the over under was set at 2.5. It looks like it's now a 1.5 settings. Minus 120 minus 110. I'm sure you like that as a heavyweight overback.

much. I cannot express you at minus two, at over two and a half, it was like, well, at least it's plus money, but man, I don't feel good about this guy. Over one and a half, I'm in. The heavyweight overs, you got to keep doing it. We're going to make it. I actually have two bets on this. I don't know if you have any bets on this. I actually, I have the, when it opened at the two and a half, I took the under two and a half. Oh, okay. It opened at like minus 103. I was like, Jared Van derr has been finished in four of his last fights. These are two heavyweights, and you're giving me almost even money on the two and a half in this heavyweight fight. And like, I had to take it.

Like, two of my bets were based solely off of lines this week. And this is one. I didn't want to get involved at all, but I had to at that price. So we're trying to hit the window of this fight needs to stop between the 731 mark. Late second round, late second round TK.O. 30. Yeah. Just late second round.

You know what? A TKO in the first minute of the third round. Yeah. That'd be great. Easy. Very easy. I do hate entering third rounds when I have the under two and a half. You just kind of sit there with your thoughts.

You're like, you do. You get that whole minute where they're on the stool when you're contemplating your existence. Yeah. It's got to come out fast. It's got to come out fast. And then like the 15 seconds, they just square each other up. You're like, oh. Yeah.

It's tough. So I'm on. the over one and a half because heavyweight overs. They're the new flyweight unders, the heavyweight overs. And I also took a shot on a line that I'm not entirely sure I understand. Vandera by sub is plus 1,200. And like, I don't think that that's what's going to happen. Oh, God.

But he is a BJJ black belt. You don't have to, listen, dude, you don't have to convince me. I've fallen into this before in his fight against Jake. Sherman. I know. It's just like, I don't think Waldo Cortez-Acost is good. I mean, here's my, all right, I'll make an argument for you because I thought about it myself. This is his last chance. This is Jared Van derr's last shot. For sure. He doesn't get another. He is gone, gone, gone. There's a chance if he wins and it's not impressive, he might be gone anyway. Be smart. Like, use the IQ. You could have just gone in against Chase Sherman and dumped them down over and over.

and search for submissions and got the win. But instead, you stood in bang and got knocked out in the third round. So if you use your fight IQ and go back to what you have some talent at to stay in the UFC, this would be the fight to do it, Jared. That's the thing is I think he's going to because Walter Cortezic, I just don't think Walter Cortezza Acosta is good. If you watch his LFA fight against Thomas Peterson, he got taken down several times. I mean, he was a pro boxer before this.

And not that great of a pro boxer. Not that great. The guy Thomas Peterson, who took him down a bunch, much smaller, not as good of a grappler as Jared Vandera is. And it's just, I can't, for whatever reason, I can't quit Jared Van dera. I know, God. You're talking me into putting 0.1 units on it. Well, that's why I did it,

because I was talking myself and just betting Vanderas and underdog. I was like, I don't, I think Costa Walda's sucks, or, or, Cortez Acosta. In my head, I think of Nikolai Costa Walda because of how his name works, who is the guy who plays Jamie Lannister in Game of Thrones. So he's not very good. And I just want to bet Jared Vanderat Underdog Odds. And then I was like, well, let me find the props.

And for whatever reason, Van dera by sub is 1,200s. He was like, well, okay, that's at least worth a small shot. And then I can sate my need to bet on Jared while also not actually exposing myself to much risk. I can't let you take this journey by yourself. I'm pulling it up right now. 1,200. I'm talking 0.1 units.

That's $5 for me. You don't need any big number on that. That's $5 for me to win 1.2 units. $5. Submission, lighted on fire. I just lit Abraham Lincoln right up on fire. That's gone. That is now dust.

Hey, the last bet I talked to you into cashed at plus whatever it was. 300 odds for false you talked to me in the protrogy and dobs and under oh did i i i didn't remember talking you into that one well that's okay that's okay you're you're you're you're plus money yeah we're definitely plus money uh if this hits it will make my life and honestly it's gonna be the best on a card that isn't that fun i'll feel something as van dera makes that walk because i will be cheering for it so hard but i and then we're going to be let down immediately when You just start slugging it out with pro boxer. He's not even going to go for one takedown.

I know this is never even going to get close. Like the Kyo, there were a couple moments where I was like, I thought in the first round it was done. I was like, oh, this is exactly the thing. And then no. That's what I at least want in my losing sub props. I know they're going to lose, but at least give me that hope. At least give me that chance.

Give me the glimmer, baby. Now I've put a world in my head where Jared gets this done. And it's, I mean, it's a magical place. It's going to happen. There's a universe out there where it happens, and hopefully we are living. It's not even a hard universe to get to. Jared just has to not fight like a moron. It's a very easy road to get to.

That's a tall task. But it is a tall task. All right, so I'm on the under two and a half, and it'd be sick if I get a little double hitter by Jared Van derer. End of round two. He's just pressuring. In the ninth minute. Just pressuring Cortez Acosta, just pressuring and then gets him down. Oh, he's got the best.

back. Oh, Jared Van dera. Oh, I think he's got it in. He's got it. It's under the neck. He's going to tap. Oh, he does. Jared Van derrick's extensive career. Oh, it's going to be the best. I'm so excited for when this hits, and we went all of our bets on this very, very stupid heavyweight fight. Yeah. Yeah, I can't wait for Van dera to get blasted into the third row of the UFC apex.

Yeah, you know, at least it'll be fun for us, unlike this next fight. He gets blasted at the exact 2.30 mark in the second round, so you push, I lose, both suburbos lose. Oh, if that happens, we, I honestly won't even be mad if that exact scenario happens. That would just be funny. That will be unbelievable. All right. Waldo, no, thank God, I almost dove right back into it. Let's keep you rolling on the main card. Trayshon Gore versus Josh Friend. Right now, Josh Fremd can be had for minus 175. Trayshon Gour coming back at plus 150 over under, set at one and a half, closer to two and a half now. Over two and a half minus 105 under minus 125.

Yeah, we talked about it earlier, trusting fighters. I looked into this one. I started leaning Josh Fremnd. I was like, maybe I get around to this. And then I just like, I mean, he had a decent showing and saying, Anthony Hernandez, it's a really tough matchup to come into. I just was just like, there's no chance I'm putting my money on Trashon Gore. I cannot trust him.

Like, I cannot trust him to do this. And then I was just like, I'm just, I wish them the best, but I'm just, I'm not putting my money down here. I am in the exact same boat. Like, I honestly, if I wasn't in that boat, I, because I very briefly looked at this car, was like, I'm just going to take every underdog because none of these fights feel safe to bet on a favorite. Like, that's why I didn't have a parlay because there's nobody that I'm like, that guy's going to win. So we'll just lock him in.

It's just like I don't. Same. Like everything feels like a dollar pass. Yeah. Yeah. My parlay pieces are not on this UFC card. It's just the Calvin Cater and Arnold Allen over one and a half. Yeah.

It's just not. Again, I frimmed should win. He should win. Anything could happen in this fight. That's the thing is like, Trashon Gore, I can't trust him with my money, but like this is same thing as Vandera. Dude, back is against the wall. Like, this guy was talking about being a double champ before he even made his UFC debut. That was insane.

I mean, that was insane. But like, now his career is on the line. If he loses this fight, he moves to three and three. And he will be 0 for three in the UFC. And like, it's a rap at that point. Yeah. Yeah, it's, this is one of the ones where I actually don't think this is a darker pass. If you're going to bet, I would bet on Frimmed, but I ain't got no confidence in this one at all.

So again, another straight up pass for me. I haven't had one of, I haven't had a card like this in a long time where I just like, two main card fights that I just said, nope, nothing, nothing doing. It, it feels good because, like, going into last week, I was, I think I had like 24 and a half units. in play and i was like man if this night goes bad like it could go really bad like i could end up down like 12 units and it's just a slaughter with this like i think i have with the addition of jared van dera i have like i have like eight point five units in play like i could reverse sweep it'd be miserable but like i'd be like it's not the end of the world yeah like we hit of reverse sweeping is is

fairly low i don't see that happening so best of luck if you bet on that one that brings us to our last fight on the main card. I do have action on this one. It's Dustin Jacoby going up against Khalil Roundtree. Right now, you can get Dustin Jacoby for minus 175. Wow. He's dropped back down after getting steamed up. Kalil Roundtree for plus 150. I took Justin Jacoby, took him at minus 152, was on him against Don Jung. He's impressed me in this reiteration in the UFC 701. Cahill Roundtree, violent man, incredibly violent man. If he comes in and he's successful in headhunting, he will put Dustin Jacoby out. The inconsistencies for Cleo Roundtree is what gives me pause on him and in a matchup that is going to almost positively be a strictly striking battle,

Dustin Jacoby's striking acumen, the experience that he has in kickboxing, I will rate him over Khalil Roundtree, and I think he gets it done in this one. So I'm going to give you a piece of information you're not going to like, because I'm on the other side of this. I am on Kaliloh Roundtree for a couple of reasons. One, I can't quit this man in the same. same way I can't quit Jared Vanderot, he just is there. And I don't know how you feel about this piece of info, but...

I'm ready to hear it. For as everything you said is right, Cleo Roundtree is inconsistent. This man is up and down, side to side. It's all around, all over the map. Yeah. But he has consistently knocked out dudes who came from glory. because Carl Roberson fought in glory and Khalil bodied that man. And Gokensaki, a kickboxing legend,

Khalil bodied that man. And like when I looked at this, I was like, this fight feels closer because yes, on paper like Jacobi's the more accomplished striker, and he's looked so good since returning to the UFC. But for whatever reason, Roundtree seems to thrive against, like, guys who are just going to kickbox with him and do nothing else. And he's a super violent dude. And he looks so good.

He looks so good against Roberson. And we talked about the Roberson thing. And I picked Roberson. Me too. Saying Roberson is the more accomplished better kickboxer. And then you wouldn't have known it. Had you watched that fight? You would not have known who was the better one.

And so that's it. I'm all at Underdog odds, this dude kills glory. boxers and he's getting another one. Yeah, I agree with you there. The arguments that I'll make to that, Carl Roberson and Dustin Jacoby's career trajectories are the exact opposite. 7-0-1 since coming back. Carl Robeson, four straight losses now out of the UFC.

Yeah, I mean, if Khalil Roundtree comes out here and just does his, like, it's like, I know we talk about like, oh, yeah, the UFC, like, violence, like finishes, like, the way that Khalil Roundtree does it, like the way that he finished Carl Roberson, I was like a little bit uncomfortable. I was like, God, this dude is like killing this man. Like, I felt bad for Roberson when they finally called it. It was tough. So like, yeah, if Khalil Roundtree comes out here and does that to Dustin Jacoby, like, I won't be shocked. Like, I'll be like, man, yeah, I played with fire and the fire bit me. But I was there in person for old Justin's big win over Don Jung. So, you know, He bought a little fan credit in me.

Hey. I guess I got a few buy his bets this week. The best way to bet. Everybody knows that. Just best way to bet. All I'm saying is Khalil Raunchi has two performance bonuses in his career. And they both came against Glory Kickboxers. Either way, I think this is probably going to be a pretty exciting fight.

I think it could be Fight of the Night. I think there's a really good chance that Khalil is going to get another performance bonus, be that fight. at the night or a big chaos. So what's the over under? I was looking at it, but I didn't feel confident. It's two and a half. I want to say it's like minus 150.

Yeah, I just don't feel good enough about that. Minus 160 now. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just going to stick with the end of dog bet. I feel like it probably won't go the distance. It seems unlikely, but I guess there's a world. All right.

That is the main card. move on to the prelims. Let's get through these. The first one up is Roman Deleitze going up against Phil Haas right now. You can get Phil Haas for minus 170. Delite coming back at plus 145. I thought about playing Deleitze. I thought he looked really good against Kyle Doc. It's obviously a short outing for him there. But I mean, Phil Haas, like, he's looked pretty decent of late. I know he got blasted by Chris Curtis, but that's, that's aging somewhat decent. Phil Collins also has the wrestling acumen. I don't know.

I feel like to me it's doggar pass, but at the end of the day, I just rode without a play. I know I know you do have a play on it. I am, and I'm on to Leeds Day. Nice. Nice. I would lean more to that side, so I agree with you. Yeah, this, I just looked at it.

I think this fight to pick them is the basic math here. I agree with you. I mean, getting a little bit of extra value, you know, personal spiritual value, because Delizzei is Georgian. Ah, wow, I'm looking at that right now. Stand up, stand up Georgia. Tough not to back him. You know, it's tough. I already added Van dera.

I'm done. I'm done. I can't talk you in another one. But yeah, it is just as simple as Deliadzee looked so good against Kyle Dawkins. Yeah. And Phil Haas, you talk about it. a guy who's tough to trust with your money. Phil Haas is a guy who

is tough to trust with your money. When he looks good, he looks good, man. And then when he does not, it's as frustrating as all hell. Exactly. And so, honestly, you look at his resume and he has fought a lot of dudes who are really good, so I get why he's the favorite

here. I mean, just look at his UFC run, right? Jacob Malcun, Nasredini Imov, Kyle Dawkins, Chris Curtis, Duran Winn, like all of those are very legit middleweights. But I just, you know, I really liked how Deleidezay looked. I think it's a 50-50 fight.

I think Haas is going to try and keep this standing, and he will be able to. He's a very good wrestler. If he tries to take it down Deleadzee and ADCC Asia and Eurasia, so I don't remember how they label it, but he's a regional ADCC champion and a very accomplished Nogi Grappler. and so I think that Haas would be best not to go to the floor with him. And also Haas's a little bit of cardio concerns. Gas bag for sure.

Yeah, gas bag for sure. So there's just a lot of things that make me think this fight should be, you know, minus 110 on either side. I'm getting a decent size plus number on Deleidze right now at plus 145. Taking that all day. Yeah, I've seen a lot of people comfortable playing Phil Haas at that number minus 170. I personally would not. Yeah, I personally would not. He could come out there and win,

but yeah, for me, it is personally dogger pass. All right. Next up, it's Andre Arlofsky going up against Marcos Rogerio de Lima. I, again, I don't have anything on this. I considered the over. I know you're going to be on the over. Of course. Took a quick look at Arlofsky, maybe making it five straight.

Eight of Arlowski's last 10 have gone two decision, baby. Yeah, dude's a decision maker. The man is a decision maker. Anything other than the over? No, I've got the over. And I've got to say, I have a lot of concerns about this overhitting because the line is two and a half, right? Yeah. You essentially have to make it to a decision.

Yeah, one and a half, I would feel unbelievable about one and a half. But the other side of it, the part that at least makes me feel good, is you say I have to make it. to a decision. Actually, I just have to make it to the second round. Because if this gets out of the first round, it's going to a decision. That's how this fight is going to play. And there are very real questions because Roger DeLima, that man can come out and chuck him. Like, he's gone to decision in two of his last three, but before that, it is just a wasteland of him throwing hammers and get or get got, baby. Arlowski's game, though, has become so, survival oriented, that I think he knows when this is a possibility and he's going to mitigate

it as much as possible. And Delema is then just going to be gassed. So the hope is that if this makes it out of the first round, Delimma's going to be way too gassed. Olofsky probably wins like a the worst decision, just an awful, awful hang. And for that reason, I almost bet on Jarolovsky. But then I thought to myself, do I really want to have two bets down on this first? Right. Like, do I really, do I want to be that involved in this one? Yeah. Is it necessary to be that involved in this fight?

And I ultimately decided, no, it's not. So I've got the over two and a half. It's going to be electric. I can promise you that. Depressingly, it is. Depressingly, over two and a half is still minus 150. I. Oh, it's going to be a sweat.

God. It's a sweat for nothing, for no value. Minus 150 on heavyweight over two and a half. Half. Yeah, it's a sweat for no value. The objectively correct bet here is under two and a half at plus 120. I'm in. Anytime you're getting heavyweights going against each other that one of them has like this frantic chaotic style.

Like 100 first round chaos. Yeah. And you're getting plus money on an under two and a half. It's like a no brainer to play it. But I knew you'd, I knew you'd be on this over. So, you know. I'm a man of my word. I'm just telling you.

He's just been doing weird things. I don't trust them. And I feel like he's just itching to go to another decision. He loves him. He's, I love it. It's incredibly fun to watch an old man crafty his way through things. That man gets paid by the hour. He does.

But yeah, I would say to the listeners, I love you. And if you want to follow along on my continued experiment with heavyweight overs, God bless you, this is maybe not the smartest better. I've ever made my life. That's why we do it, though. All right, let's keep it moving. Next up, we got Joseph Holmes going up against June Young Park, the Iron Turtle. Right now you can get the Iron Turtle at minus 240.

Joseph Holmes going back at plus 200 over under is set at two and a half over minus 155 over under plus 125. It's moved down a little bit. I played this yesterday at plus 160. the under two and a half. At first look, I was like, Jun Young Park's going to win, and then just like the size disparity between these guys,

six inches of height for Joseph Holmes, seven inches of reach. Holmes is an 80 inch reach, man. That is, like, you don't see that a lot. He's not the greatest fighter in the world, but like just on that size advantage alone. Not a lot of people overcome a seven inch reach disadvantage in fights.

And like, what could be spend a lot of time on the feet. Like Joseph Holmes is pretty good on the ground. Junion Park is more likely to go for the takedowns. But I mean, just just looking at the numbers on these guys, eight of Holmes last nine have not made it through the third round. I know Park is a decision maker in the UFC, but just going back and watching that Gregory Rodriguez fight, I mean, he had Rodriguez, like wobbled bad end to rights. I was on Rodriguez there. I was like, oh, he's losing. He is about to lose here. It was a fantastic fight. He's not a. afraid to get in these brawes. I could see Joseph Holmes coming out here and kind of making it

that using his, our Unionron Park coming out and making it that using his, you know, size disadvantage to try and get in there. And this one becoming a scrap, if it goes to the ground, Holmes, his last two victories, both by submission. I mean, he's tricky on the ground as well. Just with middle weights and the way that Holmes has been finishing fights lately, win or lose, I was willing to take it at the plus money. It's still sitting at plus money, plus 125. didn't put a ton on it, just put a half unit. I could definitely see this one ending early. I don't have a bet, but I was really close to taking a shot at Holmes

strictly on the size disparity in the fact that he's a decent fighter. Like, he's not a bad fighter. Like, that is a huge. It's enormous. A guy in Juniong Park that isn't like some, like, we're not talking about Volcanovsky here, like overcoming a size disadvantage. Exactly. And that's like, I honestly may still bet it.

I, for reference, to go back to 280, Mike Heck, great, great guy, great journalist for a.maiFind.com, great website. Great website as well. After the co-main event at 280, he was like, he and I got into a bit of an argument about Al Jermaine Sterling was just going to kill T.J. It didn't matter if T.J. was hurt or not. And I was like, that's obviously ridiculous. We have no idea what had happened.

That fight was useless. And he was like, did you see them? T.J. looks like a flyweight. and Aljo looked like a featherweight in there. And it is very, very true. Huge. It's huge. And here we're not even talking about elite fighters.

We're talking about a full weight class of difference between these two dudes, at least, is what it's going to look like come fight night. And so, honestly, you know what? I'm just going to go ahead and take the shot on Holmes right now at plus 200 because that number is really high. And we're going to talk about some of these, like, I don't think this has ever happened. I legitimately think that it wouldn't be entirely unreasonable just to bet every underdog on this card. I swear these are the cards you get into that and then 10 of 11 favorites when.

I mean, it could, like, I could see it happening, but in each of these fights, I'm just like, this should be close to you pick them. Like, what are these odds at? And, like, Holmes, like, Junion Park just shouldn't be this big a favorite. And I'm going to look like a dumbass, but I'm going to take the shot. I agree. Like, Juniang Park is, like, not that great. And he is overcoming, like, a. massive size disparity.

Yeah. And it's not against the guy who sucks is the bigger thing because Joseph Holmes doesn't suck. He's not great,

but he's not awful and he has huge physical advantages. And we just saw to be extremely clear. Sean O'Malley gave Piotr Yan a lot of problems for many reasons,

but one of the biggest was strictly the length that Sean O'Malley had on Piotr Yon really made that a tougher fight than Yon was ready for. And I, Holmes has 10x that length going into this fight here.

I'm taking the shot right now. I didn't have anything until you brought it up. Maybe I'll regret it, but a plus 200, F it. I mean, his loss is to Jamie Pickett, who matches him with an 80-inch each. Yeah, it's very reasonable. And also a pretty decent fight. Very reasonable loss.

So yeah, taking Holmes. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. I don't mind that play at all, especially with that size disparity that we mentioned. All right. Let's keep it rolling on this card as I accidentally went to a different page.

Now I'm back on it. It is Chase Hooper against Steve Garcia. Right now, Hooper has been getting steamed to the moon. You can get them at minus 255. Garcia coming back at plus 215. The over under is set at 2.5 over plus 124 under minus 150. Yeah, I'm taking Chase Hooper. I took him a few weeks ago when I took Arnold Allen at a much more reasonable line, minus 184.

I think he's going to win Steve Garcia. I just don't rate him that highly. His two wins in the UFC are against guys that are not UFC quality in Charlie on Tvers and Desmond Torres. I just think Chase Hooper is going to continue to improve. Based off that last performance, he looked fantastic against Felipe Corales. Yeah, I just think he's going to keep improving. I think he's more dangerous on the ground. I think he can hang with defeat.

And I just like, I just don't know how UFC caliber Steve Garcia is, but he is tough, man. He's tough as hell, and he has knockout power. So, yeah, I mean, at Fandor right now, Chase Hooper is minus 280. I bet he touches 300 before the week's out. Yeah, man. So I don't have a bet on this fight, to be perfectly honest, this is a doggar pass for me, certainly at these odds. I wanted to take a shot on Steve Garcia just because it's really hard for me to see

Chase Hooper being a minus 250, minus 280 favorite. I'm going to say he's going to close at 300. Yeah. And if he does, honestly, I might even just take the shot. The thing I didn't is Chase Hooper did show me some real tangible improvement against Philippic Laris. But I don't know, this is, and there's always the possibility, which you didn't even mention just so we're not one of his two losses in the UFC, his two losses ever, to Steve

and Peterson. That's maybe Steve's just have. Chase hates Steve's. We're going to find out if the Steve's just, if Scuba Steve couldn't just sink Chase Hooper right here. We don't know. So, you know, if I was going to bet, and I may still if the line keeps continuing this movement, but I'm with it, Steve Garcia has not, hasn't shown me too. much and because Chase Hooper showed me some real improvement against Cloris, it's enough to stay away. But nobody, don't parlay this man. Do not put Chase Hooper and your parlay people.

It's not necessary. I have a question for you. I don't know if you know the answer to it. Sure. I'll pretend like I do. The movement in MMA lines is like nothing I've ever seen in any other sport. Do you have any idea why that is? Um, I don't actually know.

My, I agree in large part. My theory, uh, honestly, so you got into MMA gambling, obviously much later than I did. She's been doing this for like a decade now or whatever. Honestly, one of the reasons I started doing this is because back in the day, man, nobody knew how the hell to set lines. Lines were frequently just terrible or like obviously stupid as the sport was still getting its feet underneath it and just like, especially prop lines, you could get like Robbie Lawler by K.O. at like 10x what Robbie Lawler was to win decision and stuff like that, just like very

ridiculous things. I think that the lines still are, people still don't have like a fully great read, especially for like some of these fights. Man, it's hard to set lines for. So you're, you're essentially saying they throw them up and then they adjust based on where the money moves. Correct. Okay. Because I think, especially as the UFC continues to bring in, let's be honest about it, lower level talent, it's hard to set lines for like regional MMA because there's just so many unknowns. And then some dudes who train with, you know, Steve Garcia or whatever come and throw 10 grand on him. Like, yeah, he's obviously going to beat this dude. I think the lines are just more volatile and they adjust more rapidly for them.

But that's just a guess. Yeah, I mean, like, dude, like you talk about like a football game. Game moves like a point and a half on the spread. It's like major, major movement. In the UFC, like you can have money lines move like 200 points from open to fight time. Oh, even more than 200. I mean, shit, we were just talking about the main event to this one. Yes.

He's minus 120. What did, um, what did you get about? Plus something? I got plus 160. He sat at plus 170 for six months. And then on September 14th, moved down to plus 160, stayed there until September 26th, dropped down to plus 140, and then finally made the drop, like, heavy drop down to, like, being in favorite range.

Yeah, I think a lot of it is just, I mean, they have football down to such a science to knowing where they're setting spreads that, like, it is honestly, I mean, it's an internet meme. It is remarkable how well Vegas knows where to set spreads for football. It is unbelievable, actually. It really is. And I don't know how they do it. And I think just the MMA odds makers don't have it nearly as finely tuned to what the public is going to move the things to.

And so lines have a lot more volatility to them. Yeah. Especially for stars, man. I don't think they ever bake enough into people that like to fighters that are known like Chase Hooper. Like Chase Hooper was always going to get more action. It's just I don't think they ever bake enough of that into the price. Yeah, I'm with you, man It feels like even on the props

The props get crazy line moving Because like Dude, we had three We didn't have it on the show Last week We all, you and I were both on Barallo By submission at plus 600 We tweeted about it later

Because the next day That prop dropped to plus 300 Yeah I like I take my bets And like, oh these are these are fake Like the classic is like Oh fake lines I'm like

No dude I took it like two weeks ago and it's just moved a lot. Like here is my betting slip for it. Like it's just, it's maddening that like people think I take these bets like the morning like of the fight day and they don't reflect the exact same odds.

It's like I expect some line movement but some of these get like crazy. Like I never expected to see Chase Hooper at almost minus 300 this week. I was like, minus 184 I'll take that. He'll probably get to like minus 210 around fight day. Like I'm cool with that. Like, no, it is, it is a legitimate advantage in this sport to bet early because lines do move so aggressively and so often.

I'm way too lazy to do that and I'll just bet it what comes down. But like, yeah, it's and the only explanation that makes any sense is that odds makers just still haven't got this figured out as well as other people do for other sports. I want to say Zhang like earlier this year was like a minus. Yeah, against Carlos Sparza. a minus 150. That's the stupidest line I've ever heard. Best you can get her at now is minus 330. I mean, that's just like, man, if you're sitting on a...

I want to say on Fandle, the main event last week, to not go the distance opened at like minus 170. Oh, I would have just unloaded the clip on that. Yeah, it just feels like they're not really good at setting lines. And they just adjust rapidly to the public. Yeah, well, that's always something I've wondered about. And we have one more fight to get into on this U.S. UFC card and what do you know? It's a flyweight fight and if you think for one second that I got

scared off of some one and a half not hitting by some fluky McFluke shit, you're crazy because flyweight unders never miss and it's going to get right back on track this week. Cody Durden going up against Carlos Motto. Right now you can get Cody Durden for plus money. The man who's been fighting in the UFC plus 150. Carlos Motta coming back at minus 175. They haven't said the over-under yet. I am anxiously waiting for this prop to drop. I need it in my life.

It's not out. Yeah, I'm with you on that. But I'm going to be on it with you. Of course. Whatever it is. Doesn't matter the number. Make it minus 500. I'll still play it, damn it.

I'm also just now realizing, because I knew it just didn't strike me. Carlos Mota is, I guess, now the former LFA flyweight champion because he vacated his title. Our boy, Waldo Cortez Acosta, is now, I mean, I guess he actually was prior, but the former LFA heavyweight champion, we could maybe cook up a LFA champion parley, but for the fact that I kind of think Vanderaa's going to win. I might still cook that up, though. LFA alumni parlay. I mean, I don't know. LFA parlay, baby. I don't know how much I love laying almost minus 180 on UFC debutante on five days notice.

Oh, I mean, it is just a terrible, terrible choice. Carlos Mone gets a full hand. There are a lot of LFA dudes in this card, by the way. Steve Garcia is an LFA guy. Now you're cooking with gas. Trying to think who else is in the LFA from this card. But yeah, maybe I'll mess around with that and find an LFA parlay, just for the hell of it. I love a gimmick.

You know me. I love a gimmick. Josh Frimmed, I don't think he was ever a champion. He wasn't an LFA, though. He wasn't ever a champion. He made avented. Yeah, he fought for a belt, I believe. I may make an LFA champion parlay.

against Gregory Rodriguez. That's right. Exactly. Maybe I'll cook that up as a parlay for shits and gigs, you know, just because I'd like to have one. But, yeah, otherwise, the only thing I have to say on this one, smash the under, it's a flyweight fight. What else do you need to know? Yeah. I mean, Motif, three of his last four wins are by first round knockout, Durdon, seven of his last ten fights ended in the first round.

It's time to get this ship righted. Joseph Holmes, also an LFA guy? Wow, wow. Now you're really good one with the guy. A lot of LFA guys in here, man. All right, so that's the UFC card. We have to talk about it a little... I was about to ask you.

I mean, Anderson Silva, Jake Paul. Yes, sir. I don't have shit to talk about for Bellator, so F that. That Bellator card is. I didn't know what was happening until I saw the odds drop. I got like the tweet notifications that odds route. I was like, oh, I wonder when that is. And then I was like, oh, it's this week.

weekend. I'm saying this, but I parlayed Fabian Edwards in my parlay. It's Fabian Edwards, uh, the main event over one and a half and the Katie Taylor fight goes the distance. It's a super sick combat sports parlay pays out at minus one or two. All right, though. Love that. Anderson's just so we're clear. I didn't know Bellator had an event this weekend until I looked at my work schedule. I was like, why am I working early on Saturday? And I looked at I was like, oh, I drew the Bellator straw this weekend. I mean, you might as well, you know, get some pizza, get your Italian favorites, a little pasta, and enjoy the card. I mean, I am almost for sure going to do a chicken palm sando.

Ooh. Now we're talking. All right, though. Anderson Silva, Jake Paul. We talked about line movement about five minutes ago. Got a couple good lines on UFC. I did not get a good line on this one. I took Anderson Silva at minus 135.

You can get them as high as plus 150 now. So, yeah, I fumbled that one pretty good. I am shocked. I just sort of assume this would close at a pick-um. I cannot believe Jake Paul is minus 185 on draft kings right now. Oh, I can't. Oh, 185. No, I can believe that he's the favorite just because that's how being famous works.

And you trick a bunch of, especially the people he's famous with. Like, he's famous with a younger demographic, and they're just going to throw a shot on him. thing but uh I for whatever reason I had every intention of betting on Anderson Silva like two months ago and I looked I pulled up my bookie today and I looked at it it was like oh I forgot to place a bit well that worked out for God that worked out for you I thought I was being sharp by getting it at minus 135 I'm just going to be blunt here I was like yeah this will move it did move not the way baby because yeah I uh when I saw that it was plus plus 150 today.

I was like, oh, I already made that bet right. I don't need double action. And I was like, I did it. And sweet. So I am in for Anderson Silva at plus 150. I don't know why Silva by decision plus 500 is just like whispering in my ear. Ooh. Don't know if I'm going to pull the trigger on it.

I'm not going to pull the trigger on that. It's a little interesting. Probably won't. But it gets. It gets me to sit up a little bit and take notice. Yeah, I might put a little bit more on Silva at this new line. But we'll see. I don't love having a ton of exposure to these fights.

Yeah, yeah, God, no. But, you know, I'm riding with Anderson Silva. Everything in my head says that he should win this. Because boxing is very hard. And Jake Paul is not bad at it, but he's not good at it. and Anderson Silva is good at it. I mean, savvy striker has boxing experience. He actually knows how to do stuff.

And again, Jake Paul is not, Jake Paul has shown some ability. He is not good at boxing. And I don't want people to think that I'm hating on him for it. But like, if you've ever trained or spent time around people who trained or been in the gym, like you can tell a guy who is putting things together and like, he's got some inclination. He's not total shit, but he

does not have depth to his game. Henderson Silva has oceans of depth. Yeah, I mean, that's a fact. I think my plan is to sit because I actually think there's a world where Jake Paul becomes a bigger favorite. I mean, it totally could happen,

but yeah, I just took the shot at 150 because I didn't think it would ever be that good of a number. I might take a shot on the decision. throw like 0.25 on it. A little quarter uni action and just call it a day and see what happens. I mean, Jake Paul wins. That'll be pretty impressive.

And I think Nate Diaz should be next form if that happens. I mean, probably. I don't know if Jake Paul wins it. I mean, that fight will still do numbers, but like that fight becomes a way less interesting to me if Jake Paul wins because then he's going to beat, if he beats Andrews, he's going to beat Nate Diaz. Wow.

Imagine that. Then we start really. I'm going to make it, baby. I was going to say that's the weekend in combat sports. You got anything else. I got the only thing else I will say before we close her down, because we don't need to spend any more time, is I wanted to take a shot on our beloved Georgia Bulldogs. Have you looked at the Sprite, baby? No.

22 and a half. Oh. For some reason, I thought you were going to say it was even closer because I was getting ready to unload the clip. No, 22 and a half is a lot. Like that is and like we're going to win but I thought it would be closer. I mean, I know Florida has not looked great lately, but still I just thought I did not think we'd be that big a favorite over them. Well, always remember, they know what they're doing when they're setting football lines.

They do know what they're doing. And so I'm not on this. I'm just looking forward to next weekend, man. Next weekend is the day of days. Parents are going to be there. Oh, are they? Big one. I think I'm going to head over to Athens for it.

For those that don't know, Georgia will be playing Tennessee and what likely will be a top three matchup in college football in Athens, Georgia. Scenes upon scenes, game day. Massive implications in the conference, massive implications in the national title race. Game of the year. It's a big game of the year. And it's, uh,

in Athens, a short drive over. I think me and some buddies are going to gear up and go to it. So just going to enjoy Florida. Enjoy the Florida beat down and get prepped for next weekend, man. That is an absolute fact. Tennessee, I'm rooting for him to get past Kentucky just so we can get this matchup. They're going to thump Kentucky. Just not a contest.

Even though that's like a rivalry-ish game, it doesn't matter. All right. Well, that is that. Georgia, dub. We'll talk about it next week. We'll have to have a play. That spread will be close. That spread will be playable.

Next week, it's another beautiful, beautiful, beautiful fight night at the UFC apex. It is Marina Rodriguez against Amanda Lemoush. But there's a little bit more depth to that. We get Neil Magnin. We get Daniel Rodriguez, Jelton Almeida. You know I'm in. You know I'm in. man, you don't have to say anything else other than Gilton Almeida.

It's going to be tough for the heavyweight over crowd. That's a, that's a, that's a, that's a, you might have. Oh, no, it's not, it's a catchweight fight. Oh, it is? It says catchweight 220 on, on Wikipedia right now. Oh, wow. Tapology has heavyweight 265. Yes, love this.

I love a catch weight. You talk about tough hangs, dude. We got a flyweight fight, and it's the gear will him back off. That's, he doesn't, doesn't. not do many finishes. Also, Nate Maness does not get finished

or we do finishes himself that much. I mean, he survived with Umar. Yeah, that one might be tough. I might have to take the week off. I am off that week for the Tennessee game,

so maybe I just don't make a bet that week on that. Yeah, I might, I'm that like, we know, I know we joke about the flight of hundreds. Oh shit. I have Chase Sermin, Josh Parisian, is a heavyweight bout too.

That's over city, isn't it? I don't know, man. Chase Sherman is a guy who likes to get finished or finish people. I would think it's Over City, but that's a sweaty over. And we've got Jake Hadley Carlos Candelario. We've got a lot of gimmick bets next week if nothing else. Next week is going to be a goofy show. I'm actually looking forward to it.

I mean, Mark Madden and Grant Dawson's actually a pretty sick fight. I mean, it's not going to be that exciting, but is that happening next week yeah Miranda Maverick's on the card too yeah it'll be happening we're spinning our wheels let's get the hell out of here let's get the hell out of here what a last seven eight days this has been I mean I am just exhausted I am ready to recharge with a little UFC Apex 63 little Silva Paul a little Katie Taylor a little Bellator Italy get the engines revved up and ready to go. We'll do UFC Apex 64 and then we're right back into another

game. You can't wait. But that's for next month. That is for November. No Bet's Bard. For now, enjoy the week. Enjoy Halloween if you choose to celebrate. And we'll talk next week. Love you guys.

Listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.