MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: UFC 322, Islam Makhachev's Champ-Champ Aspirations, And The Greatest Women's Fight Of All Time

Episode Date: November 12, 2025

The best pay-per-view event of 2025 is upon us. This Saturday, UFC 322 goes down at Madison Square Garden in New York City, featuring a promotional first: two champions moving up to challenge for a second title. In the main event, Islam Makhachev moves up to 170 pounds to battle Jack Della Maddalena for the welterweight title, and in the co-main event, Zhang Weili jumps to 125 pounds to challenge Valentina Shevchenko for the women's flyweight belt. And No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Morning Kombat's Luke Noseda AKA Long Island Luke to take a look at all things UFC 322. Topics discussed include Makhachev's chances at winning a second title, whether Shevchenko vs. Zhang is the greatest women's fight in MMA history, a stacked main card featuring an ersatz welterweight tournament, the rock-solid prelim action, the next steps of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 142 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. what is up y'all we are back for another edition of no bets barred and it is a big one because it is a pay-per-view that is right ufc 322 is finally upon us the best card of the year on paper frankly i think it's the best card since ufc 300 but we'll talk about all of that in just a moment my name is jed mishu we're writer from mayfighting dot com you probably already know that if you are joining us but if it's your first time, welcome. M.A. Fightings a great website. This is a okay podcast.

And joining me to talk about all things you see 322. You know him, you love him. He's here all the time now. He's here roughly 12 times a year, one for each of the pay-per-view events that we talk about from Morning Combat, from Maincar Minute. I mean, from prop quiz. Can we say that now, you know?

Uh, the inimitable Luke Nocita, aka Long Island Luke. Luke, how you feeling about this week, baby? Thanks for being here. Dude, Jed, pleasure as always to be here for the pay-per-view. Bring me out for the big ones. Uh, I am freaking hyped for this card. Can't wait. And yes, you can start saying from prop quiz,

because I think it's basically exceeded any of my betting content at this point. So, uh, yeah. It's a terrific program. Uh, shout out to my boy, Jose Young's doing the damn thing. We respect him always. he was made for prop quiz I was not made for prop quiz that's just not

it's not where my talents align sadly but I had a good time anyway if you don't know prop quiz go check it out is it does it's own YouTube where is it on YouTube so it's on main card minute

it's on the main car minute you do go check out my shit you'll see it there and we got the finale this week hundred dollars on the line for Jose Young's versus Ben the Bain Davis so I mean two of my favorites

in the space too might be seen I might be seeing Bain here in a couple of weeks at an upcoming misfits event. But that's neither here nor there because what is here is UFC 322. We head back to New York City. We head back to Madison Square Garden, the Mecca.

And we are bringing two title fights and a whole host to other just bangers this week. I said it at the top of the order, Luke. I think this is the best fight card of the year. think it is the best on paper fight card since UFC 300 it gets full marks for me three stars how do you feel about UFC 32 rated on whatever scale you choose to rate things all right so i said this on uh submission radio yesterday like if we're going letter grades i'm always going to refuse to give the highest score on anything if we're going out of 10 i'm never going to give something to 10

i always just feel like i got to leave that little extra space there's always something that could be better you know so like nine would be the highest score a would be the highest score you know because i'm not going a plus uh so this is a damn good a this is a damn good nine man i don't know how you could get much better than this obviously you could but uh best card of the year i think is a fair thing to say i feel like next uh month's card is also looking pretty good i i don't have it on paper it's solid it is not remotely as good as this it's solid it they've done a In my opinion, 323, they really threaded the needle. It's a real tough needle to thread of this is our last pay-per-view event with our previous broadcast partner.

We're moving to a new deal. We don't want to totally phone it in here because that's a bad look. And, you know, like we did make an agreement to provide until the end of this year. We should at least try to put something real. But you definitely are going to try and make a splash with your first big event of your new broadcast deal. So you got to really walk that line. I think 323 is one of those cards that hardcore fans will love. You know, the broader public won't care about because it has, you know, a flyweight and a bantamweight title fight.

Those are not particularly marquee divisions. But I really like 323 as well. But it doesn't hold a candle to this one, buddy. I mean, yeah, I don't have it in front of me. I didn't want to compare them. I was just going to say, regardless, up until the point in the calendar year, this is definitely the best card right now. Yeah. Look, two champ champ fights are taking. We rarely get a champ, champ fight, and we're getting two of them on one card. I believe that's the first time that's ever happened. I don't know that for a fact. You got to talk to somebody like a Mike Bond. They are better with the stack games than I do. But I do believe this is the first time. Not officially champ champ, but we all know they are champ champ fights. And let's just dive right into it because we had a lot of gas to talk about. I got a lot of bets this week, buddy. And I do need your help on one key thing. so we got to get into it because I don't need this episode to go two hours frankly

also to note before we do dive in we are recording this a little earlier than usual so I don't have lines for some of the props they just aren't out there so be aware of that but top of the order top of business Saturday the final fight that goes down it is jack della madalena making the first title defense of his welterweight strap against the former lightweight champion islam makachev jadm the underdog in this one luke plus 220 mackachev despite the fact that he is competing for the first time at welterweight he is a sizable betting favorite not huge but you know significant at minus 270 jack undefeated in the ufc he won the belt back in may uh beat belal mohammed in a terrific fight at ufc 315 Islam set

the title defense record for lightweight four title defense uh most recently competed in january where he submitted hinato moikano obviously he was you know supposed to fight on montserucyan for a second time shenanigans ensued he accepted a fight with moikano on one day's notice not even and then ran him out of the cage in in like four minutes or whatever so that earned that plus belal losing the belt got us to where we are today luke and and not surprising to see Mokachev as the betting favorite, but how are we feeling about the main event? Because I got a lot of thoughts both on the fight and all my bets here.

All right. Well, first things first, I mean, I'm an Australian. You guys already know I always go home for the Aussies, right? So I'm looking for every reason to root for JDM here. That being said, there's a lot going on here. Okay, first thing I want to mention here is JDM lost both of his first two professional fights and has now won 18 straight. Just got to say, like, props to the man for being 0 and 2

and come back win in 18 straight. Islam has won 15 straight since being knocked out way back in the day in the UFC. 10 years ago, a matter of fact. The difference here, though, the 18 fight streak for JDM, 10 of those guys were on the regionals. They were not on the UFC level. All 15 of Islam's came in the UFC. Not only that, but if we look at their resumes a little further here,

one guy finished you just mentioned moikano dan hooker dustin porre charles olivera alexander vulcanovsky the other guy uh won a split decision over kevin holland caught gilbert in a fight that he was definitely losing and yeah he beat belal mahomet but you know it's belal mahomet right obviously wow obviously we're not going to use a welterweight champion bala mohammed you just dismissed as a jabrote i don't know dude i'm just saying i'm not going to judge them on their resume though let's be real we got to look at the numbers a little little bit here. Islam does average over three takedowns per 15 minutes. It's obviously going to be a five round fight. So we're looking at closer to five takedowns per 25 minutes. J.D.M. taken down

10 times in his last two fights. And he was taken down by three of his last four opponents. J.D.M. also gets hit three times as often as Islam. Are we also forgetting that Islam is like number one pound for pound in the world? I know I think he's number two technically in the UFC's rankings. He's fucking number one in my buck, dude. I love Jack Delamadena. I was looking for every reason to root for him here this to me feels like such an easy Islam win and at minus 240 i got him out in a parley like i'm taking that all day dude it could have been as high as minus 400 i would have taken Islam so yeah uh the 15 fight win streak tied for second longest in ufc history with kamar oosman and uh one behind the record of 16 with anderson sylva if he gets it done

Saturday, Islamakov will make a lot of history. He will be the 11th two-division champion in UFC history. He will tie the longest winning streak in UFC history. And I believe, I'm actually going to look this up right now. He is, yeah, he will be the second two-division champion to do it lightweight to welterweight, which people don't think about, but to me is like incredibly significant because those are historically the two best weight classes in the sport and have been so for like ever and so I got you know respect for featherweight to lightweight as we saw you know ilya do featherweight is a tremendous weight class in its own right but the the history behind the two weight classes that he will have won belts in should he pull it off is i think more

significant than any other if you're going to pick two weight classes to do it in those are the too. And so, yeah, you know, he would cement himself very highly in the all-time fighter list. And it would be a question of, does he keep going? Who does he fight? We'll get to all that in a bit because I agree with your breakdown in general. I have always been very high on Islamakachev. And he has done nothing but prove me right in all my belief behind him. I have a good deal of respect for Jack Delamadelana. It's hard for me to judge how well he fits as a champion. Not to say that he doesn't deserve it.

He clearly beat the guy who had the belt and justly had the belt. But that performance, it's all strange. And the end result I have is that every arrow points towards Islam for me. And maybe that's rose-colored glasses, man. I don't know. But like you said, I think he's got a clear advantage in the grappling. It's not to say that Jack can't grapple, he can. But we've seen much worse fighters than Islam, take Jack down, have success on the ground against Jack.

Jack did show improvement against Balal, right? He was better in that phase. But also, Balal wasn't trying, wasn't as focused on pursuing the takedowns as I think Islam will be. And so it's hard to know how much to ascribe to that, right? You know, Jack is a very, very good boxer, some of the better boxing in the UFC. Islam is an exceptional defensive fighter and is much better kicks than Jack. And, you know, I don't think he's going to be particularly worried about Jack taking him down. So he can kick on the feet, you know, box, play range.

And then I think he's a much better clinch fighter than Jack as well. And so all of these phases really seem to add up. And then the thing, the thing to hang your hat on, I think if you're a Jack supporter, right? And we should make the case because I'm sure people listening here, they like Jack. They want to bet for Jack, right? Like, you know, maybe they're Volk fans, and they're like, all right, he beat Volk's, but third times the charm, we finally get, I'm, Craig Jones is sitting here thinking, how many times do I have to fight a Habib dude to finally get a dub? I don't think he's going to happen this time, but let's make the case. If I'm making the case for Jack, it starts with, well, he's a true welterweight, and Islam's coming up.

Actually, I don't think that's a good case, buddy. uh islam looks huge and per you know some reporting they both they're i think they're going to enter this this fight similarly sized and not because islam is put on weight he is allegedly put on a little bit i mostly think he's just not cutting weight as much because he was always just a gigantic one 55er and so i don't think the size difference will be super big uh if at all frankly and that is that feels real tough for me for Jack and so then it's like well maybe Islam's getting a little older because he is 34 you know that's right around the end of our athletic primes in general jack is still young and so there's a world if i'm making the case for jack della it is

i am absolutely certain the one thing i am certain of is that on saturday we are going to see the best Jack Delamadena we've ever seen. And that, I'm not certain of that with Mokachev. I think that's going to be the case, but he is a little older. You never know when a falloff might happen. You never know if maybe he did put on weight and it's too much and he doesn't carry it as well. Like there are questions there. I have no questions about the quality of J.D.M. that we'll see on Saturday. I just don't think it's going to be enough. I believe his, Al-Machachev is the best pound-fighter in the world. I believe he is much better than Bala Muhammad.

And Bala-Mohamed very nearly beat Jack Della. Jack Della won that fight, but that fight was very competitive. And I think Islam is going to approach this better, is a better fighter, and is going to get this done. And as a result, I've done it. I've chosen to be bold. I will be climbing with Islam-Machachev this week at a minus 275 price point. for those who don't know the climb that is my attempt to string together roughly 28 to 30 consecutive bets of minus 500 or better an attempt to turn $100 into $10,000 by rolling them all up last time we did it was 321 we did a three for unfortunately tom aspinall fight ended in no contest so it became a two fur but both other legs cashed so we are two steps up this road and isla makoche is one of the climb bets I'll be taking this week.

Plus, Luke, you know, we rock or watch party. M.Afighting.com on Saturday, me and Mike Heck, y'all can jump in. You can see my real-time reactions to all of the money that I've got on this fight. It'll be a good time. So that's where I'm out on the main event. Do you got any other thoughts on this one, Luke?

No, but I real quickly, I mentioned to you last time I was on that I've been doing a climb per card now and trying to go the entire card, flipping it, whatever. I made it the furthest I've ever made it two cards ago, Vegas 110, 10 fights in, I lost on Isaac Delgarian. Oh, oh, oh, that is brutal. And I will say, we all saw the line moving, but I still, like, rolling over the money. I was, and they took all the back away.

So I was like, fuck, do I go Del Valle? Do I go Delgarian? And people were like, sit it out. I was like, you can't sit it out. We're trying to do the full cards. So I just went with Dolgarian. I mean, hindsight's 20-20, but sitting it out might have been the move in that scenario. Yeah, but then if I had made it the full card, I'd be like, yeah, I did the full card, but I sat one fight out, you know.

Yeah, but then in, but then you'd be like, I sat out the suspected shenan-in-law. I didn't know in hindsight. It was going to be. Yeah, that's a tough one. Just for the record, Islamachchev, 16 and won as a betting favorite. Jack Della, only been an underdog once before, and he did get it done in that, in that effort. So I want to know as an underdog We got to move on

Because there's another fight And I don't know if I'm the first person on this corner But it feels like I was the first person on this corner I've been saying it for weeks And we keep saying it because I think it's just a great take The co-main event Valentina Shipchenko defending her flyweight title Against former strawweight champion

Zhang Wei Li Who like Islamakchev is making a jump up Luke I believe this is, on paper, the greatest fight ever put together in women's mixed martial arts. The other one that people would reflexively jump to, and I think the other one that would have the case is Amanda Nunes versus Chris Cyborg. Chris Cyborg had been undefeated for like a decade at that point. Amanda Nunes was obviously the women's band-of-weight champion.

It was a champ-champ fight, a lot of historical precedent. Basically, that win is the fight that kind of set up Amanda Nunes. to be considered the greatest fighter of all time in many people's, or the greatest women's fighter of all time in many people's eyes. I think that's sort of the other case to be made, but my counter to that case is at the time Amanda Nunes was not nearly as accomplished as both of these two women are. Chris Cyborg certainly was at the time, but Amanda Nunes had a couple of title defenses under a belt, but, you know, Shevchenko has like eight or some ludicrous number of title

offenses that she's accumulated. This will be her ninth if she gets it. Yeah, Zhang has clearly established herself as, I think clearly you could make an argument because straw weight is a little weird. She's got the two lost to rows. But the consensus, I think most people accept that she's probably the best, the greatest straw weight who's ever competed. And so you've got two divisional goats, peak of their powers, or close to the peak of

their powers, I think I'll talk about that in a little bit. more accomplished than both women were and you know the part that is the biggest to me Chris Cyborg is great I'm not here to bag on Chris Cyborg uh women's featherweight is not a real weight class and so these are the two these are the two good weight classes and the other one had the two bad women's weight classes so I think this fight is on paper the greatest female fight ever ever assembled and I'm super super pumped for it how are we feeling about the co-main on saturday i i gotta give you credit for that it probably is the best women's fight on paper ever honorable mention although it wasn't in her prime but uh

valentina versus joanna you know like that was also two legends going at it but that yes i mean that's that's another one that's probably in the top five right there right because that was joanna had just lost and was moving up to thing um but coming up the law sort of take some of the sting off that too you know also to your point waley is the longest tenured strawweight champion of all time if you combine the title reigns like both rose joanna and waley won it twice or sorry carla rose either way she's the longest senator um dude this fight i really so i wrote this breakdown yesterday and i looked at the odds today and they switched so i just want to say i was really hoping that the odds would sway me to someone and yesterday this fight was a pickum so just take that with a

grain of salt when i say what i'm going to say here they may switch back man uh this one feels like people or on both sides heavy. I know, and this is reminding me too much of Wayle v. Tatiana, because it was the same exact thing. I got Tatiana as a dog, then it flip-flopped, or vice versa. I don't even remember, but either way, I came out on the wrong side of that fight. This fight, though, their stats, pretty much identical. If you want to get nitpicky, though,

Shevchenko does get hit less often. She's going to have a three-inch reach advantage, and she does land more takedowns per 15 minutes. She's also probably going to be the bigger girl here, having fought majority of her career at Bannonweight. I know like you were saying in the JDM Islam fight, they're comparatively the same size. Sure, that could also be the case here, but I just kind of feel like Chevy's bigger. I don't know.

I could just be making it up. One thing we've got to think about here, though, is that Whaley's only a year younger, but Shevchenko's been fighting professionally for 10 years longer than Whaley. She's been fighting professionally for over 20 years. Yep, since 2003, and she's got over 60 kickboxing bouts in that span, in addition to her MMA career. She's got Muay Thai bouts in there. It's just, it's a lot of mileage on the body. She's 37 years old. Little worried. That being said, Jed. That being said, still think she's the second best women's mixed martial arts of all time and arguably number one. Dude, I think she'd be

Amanda in the second fight. I'm just saying. I think she's got the, if they're one and one right now, maybe we're making the case for Val is number one. I'm just saying. I'm not going to bet it I'll bet her, but I'll talk about that in a minute. I'm not going to bet against her, dude. It was a pickum yesterday. I took Val minus 110 in a parlay. Now she's a not sizable favorite. She's like minus 125, but now I'm like, fuck, man, I kind of got way lee plus money.

I'm feeling a little like buyer's remorse, but I'm riding with Val on this. So this is the fight to me on the whole weekend that feels like it has the most, everybody kind of nobody has a great idea, you know, or they do. but it's an even split. Like there's a big diversity of opinions on this one. I haven't done my full breakdown, but I've done enough looking into it, diving into it. And contrary to the Jack Della breakdown, right? Like, I do not believe we're going to see the best Valentina Shibchenko on Saturday night.

She's simply been doing this too long. She's older. So much mileage. I think, you know, pretty clearly. Despite the fact that she reclaimed the belt, and then beat Menon Fior in the fashion that she did as just a testament to her greatness. I understand why people have Amanda Nunez. I'm not willing to fight the battle because it's just not worth it to me.

If I am picking the greatest female fighter of all time, it's Valentina Shepchenko. I think she beat better people. She accomplished more in a single weight class. Amanda Nunes accomplished a lot in one and a half weight classes because featherweight is a fake-ass weight class. and Valentina Shevchenko, I also thought she won the second fight, and she, you know, is clearly giving up a significant amount of size to Amanda Nunes. I always wanted them to fight a third time because I could see Nunez winning. Nunes did get much better over time, but I wouldn't bet my life that she would win that fight.

Shev could easily win that fight. I think she's the greatest female mixed martial arts of all time. I think Zhang Wai Li is, you know, she's number three or four in that. list right like there's a group of four up there at the goat mountain of the women's weight classes and she's right in the mix i it's hard to judge waley because she looks so good against tautiana and in my head it's like she should start to slow down now it you don't age well in lighter weight classes she's old like she is just old in general and Chevy's not like Chevy's not at her best. So if she's going to do it, she's, she's catching a good va, like a good time to do

it. I still just don't think she's going to do it, man. Like that's, I, as I watched tape, like, I can see it. It won't stun me. She's an incredible fighter and maybe the bump up. To me, the case is that Zhang is such a physical specimen and she can retain enough, you know, speed, even if maybe she's added a little bit of weight moving up, that the speed advantage is just big enough. But like, I think stylistically this is a really bad fight for shang is sort of the problem um to me because like one we've seen chivchenko fight jessica and drudge who came up right who was a you know a slightly smaller competitor and chivchenko just big sister was just like all right well you're small and i'm going to treat you like you are small i don't know that she can do that against shang um but i don't know

that she can't do that against shang because i don't know if you guys know this been off yours like the most hoss woman alive Manon Fjord spent her whole run up just hoss in fools and be like no like Aaron Blanchfield who herself is a pretty physical competitor and Manon was just like nah get the hell off me

and Chevy did Chevy was still like no there are I am still I am more physical than you she didn't win every exchange you know every time they locked up Menon didn't go for a ride but it was enough of them and so I think she can still do that if she has to. And that to me is sort of the difference here. Because I think Zhang, I think an

underrated aspect of Zhang's game as it's developed is that when she has, she has been able to go to the grappling when she has needed to. And it has become almost a George St. Pierre-esque sort of career arc of like, oh, I can just start grappling people. And I can defend takedowns from a Tatiana Suarez if that's the problem. But I can also just, you know, like, oh, I'll, I'll take down Janjaunan 87 times or however, like an infinite number of times. And I can just sort of do that. I don't think Zhang's going to have any success in trying to initiate grappling exchanges in that regard. And so if this is a kickboxing match, it like to me it breaks down as this will mostly be a kickboxing match unless Shivchenko decides she doesn't want it to be.

So that's already advantage of Chivchenko. And in a kickboxing match, like, uh, Shevchenko is not, I don't, not here to tell you that she's a lethal murderist, the greatest kickbox she's ever lived. She's really good at doing specifically the things she wants to do and mostly preventing you from doing anything at all. She's unbelievably good at controlling distance and sort of getting the engagements on her terms. And so it's got a really good chin. I don't, I think Alexa Grasso like buzzed her once, maybe. But like she doesn't, I don't know like outside.

of Zhang landing a perfect punch, I don't think she's going to win like prolonged striking exchanges because Shibchenko has much better kicks, better distance management. And so it sort of just feels like Zhang's going to be stuck just a little bit behind in every phase.

And so I don't think Chevy's going to blow her doors off like she did Jessica Andrage. But unless she has, like unless Zhang is just better than I even think, which could be, or Shev has really fallen down. I think she's just going to sort of be a champion, right? Just the small edges add up.

And then suddenly you're like, man, each one of these rounds has been competitive. But I've got Valentina Shibchenko up 3-1 heading into the fifth, you know? Like, and it just feels like that's the fight we're about to get, a classic Valentina Shibchenko title defense. Let's go. Let's go. I hope you're right, dude. I love that read because I was just saying I'm like regretting my pick. And now I'm like, all right, Jed, you kind of talked me back into it.

I'm feeling good. No, I, I, it would be really cool if Zhang did it, right? And again, I can see it happening. She, Shevchenko is old and a lot of mileage, but her sort of just like going vintage against Manaw was like, oh, she's still got it. Like, she's still got the goods here. And I think that there are just sort of a lot of natural advantages here. And I honestly, I can't get, it is hard to get the fact. that Zhang lost to Rose twice out of my head.

And Rose is a very good fighter. Like I'm not, but like the second one more so where it's like Rose Nama Yunus took her down a bunch because she was just like, okay, I'm going to do it now. Like I need to these sort of things. And even though that fight was much more competitive.

I mean, Rose and Valentina trained together. In some respects, Rose has a game patterned off of Valentina in some ways. And so it's just like Valentin is better at a lot of the things that Rose did successfully against her. that was a while ago maybe jang just improved enough that it won't matter but i i like Chevy here i've got a straight bet on Chevy and step two of the climb we're doing at least two maybe a third we're going to pencil you in to talk about the third one but step two alternate over two and a half

minus four seventy five baby so that's right inside our climb zone the mokachev one it's so up it's basically going to count as two uh give us an extra little boost step because It's only minus 275, but a 475 is sort of right at our sweet spot. At least a double header coming for the climb on Saturday. And we'll talk about one more as we move on. Support for this show comes from Odu. Running a business is hard enough. So why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other?

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That's O-D-O-O-O-O-O-com. Support for this show comes from Volkswagen. As the U.S. gets ready to host soccer's biggest moment on a worldwide stage, Volkswagen is helping people discover new turfs and new ways to play the beautiful game right here in the U.S. From deaf and power wheelchair soccer to beach and futsal, Volkswagen is actively supporting all the communities and teams within the U.S. soccer ecosystem. They're supporting talent from across the U.S. soccer extended national teams and are focused on helping to give these less widely known forms of soccer a platform moving forward. from the pitch to the sand and everything in between welcome to our turf and move on we shout because we spent about 30 minutes talking about the big two

as we anticipated but we've still got heater after heater and the heaters keep on coming as we go back to the welterweight this main card three welterweight fights just a lot of 170 pound action happening and this one don't know what it's for because of the log jam at the weight class, Luke, but I know that I enjoy it. It is Sean Brady taking on Michael Morales, Brady minus 140, 142, I think, at one of our friends. I don't remember I don't want to say in case or wrong. Michael Morales, around plus 120, Brady on a three-fight winning streak since his loss to Bilal Mohammed, submittedly on Edwards, back in March at UFC London.

Michael Morales, undefeated, 6-0 in the UFC, T-K-Oed Gilbert Burns back in May. How are we feeling about the, I won't say old guard, because Brady's not old, but the established guy who's made his run really trying to finally get to the title shot that we thought he'd have a while ago versus the new hotness in Michael Morales. I mean, this is just a good old-fashioned striker versus grappler matchup, man. We got Brady who averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. He's also gotten at least five takedowns in four of his last five fights. Michael Morales been taken down by half his UFC opponents here just saying Morales though gonna have a seven inch reach advantage and he also lands almost two strikes per minute more than Brady Brady does have the better striking accuracy and

striking defense for whatever that's worth he's probably gonna grapple anyway but you know still Michael Morales he's undefeated dude and at plus money I definitely could see why people want to take him I just feel like Sean Brady's coming off the best performance of his career, and I think he's smart enough to do what he needs to do here to get the W. I took him in a parlay with Islam. It's my little grappler parlay there. Two-leggar plus 147 for those two. I like Sean Brady here.

Don't get me wrong. There's upset potential here, but again, I just think Sean Brady's, he's not an idiot, and I think he's going to be able to get him down and be able to do what he wants to do from there. uh i won't bear the lead i'm on i'm on the upset here i am on the upset potential um i really like mike morales as a prospect i think this is a man who will i would bet a significant sum of money he will challenge for a title so one day and frankly i feel some level of confidence he will win the welterweight belt um maybe not immediately he is still so very young so one thing i really want people to remember he is 26 years old right so like there's all this new guard coming up

at welterweight these kind of guys who are making this push and he is the youngest of them and so like even if he falls back here he maybe takes a step back he could he could have sort of a get lost in the seas for a couple of years put it all together and he's still not even 30 and make a title run So I don't know if it'll happen, you know, next immediately. I love his game. I really love everything about what he's bringing to the table. I think he's incredibly talented and I'm super high on his potential. And so some of that is certainly coloring this matchup, right?

You know, Morales has never been an underdog, so we don't really know what it looks. So this is his first time ever being an underdog. And Brady has historically been very good. Vegas has a good read on Brady. But I think this fight is closely lined for a couple of very long. reasons. One, a lot of the on-paper advantages, they trend towards Morales. He is taller. He has a much, like, a significant reach advantage. He's much younger. Sean Brady is not old, but Michael Morales is, you know, six years younger than him. And statistically, when there's an age

gap of five years or more, the younger fighter wins 64% of the time. So, like, there are a lot of things in his favor here. It is, as you pointed out, going to be a question of wrestling. background in wrestling and judo has trained with the ecuadorian national team um he's been taken down and sean brady is sean brady and these are not the same things but i he has historically been a pretty good defensive wrestler as well i think specifically in a fight like this he knows that that has to be the focus i think he's going to have more success than people might hope uh certainly sean brady backers might hope and on the feet i don't i think he is significantly advantaged over Brady. Brady has looked actually pretty good lately on the feet, which is

sort of the one thing where my analysis gets a little choppy, because I don't think of him as very good striker, but he's improved a lot. Some of that improvement has just straight up been as a result of his opponents are terrified of getting taken down. The Leon fight, Brady had success on the feet because Leon was paralyzed to do anything at that point. And so I think this fight's awesome. I think it's a fight very competitive. I think Michael Morales can went on the feet. I think he can stuff take downs. And if he just stuffs enough of them, that might be enough because, again, I don't want to put words into your mouth. Not that long ago. And by not that long ago, I mean about 31 minutes ago. I never, I know what

you're getting at. I never said he was bad. I'm just saying about 31 minutes ago, you were like, oh, Jack Della beat Boulal big deal. not he beat champion ball well you know who didn't be you know who lost to non-champian you know who got knocked the f out by non-champian balla Sean Brady he needed that his ego needed that he was riding the high being an undefeated fighter he needed that loss bring him back down to earth have him refocus he's got the kid now he's focused man he's laser focused and Sean Brady all day let's go I'm just saying if below Mohammed can knock your ass out Michael Morales can send you to the shadow realm, buddy.

So I like, you know, if the odds were flipped, I would not be taking Michael Morales at minus 140 whatsoever. But I like him as a dog play. So I'm on Michael Morales at a plus 120 price tag. When I was looking at it, I didn't see props for K.O. But I might be interested in taking a gander at those. But I think you're getting a decent value of plus 120 on Michael Morales.

Luke let's talk about another welterweight fight though and another guy we were just mentioning old leon rocky edwards the former welterweight champion he's back and he's taking on carlos protest and he's an underdog plus 165 the uh protest coming in is around minus 200 leon's on a two-fight losing streak lost the belt then he got dummied by sean brady back in march protest 5-1 the uc he lost that competitive but cleared loss to ian machado Gary but he rebounded buddy he rebounded in a hell of a way one of the better chaos of the year the year of the spinning elbows he added his name to the list and sent joff neal uh to the land of wind and ghost at ufc 319 and uh here we are how are we feeling about this one is leon leon said that he's got a three fight plan to get his belt back it has to start here is it going to start here dude he's got a five year plan what is it don't die uh leon dude i mean he has lost two straight they came to the number one contender the number two contender these

are not bad losses whatsoever you mentioned protest beaten jeff neil dude i don't know about anyone did you think jeff neil looked kind of good in that first round i feel like that was jeph neil is jeff neil is the classic fighter that people who don't watch fighting will have no idea how good he was he is the like platonic ideal of a gatekeeper to the stars of like he will make life hell for just about everybody he faces and will beat anybody who is not super elite hell yeah but he'll lose all the elite ones he is like he is a professional fighter

I have an enormous amount of respect for Jeff Neal me as well and that being said I was on Jeff Neal in the freaking Carlos Prattis fight and I was like oh shit Jeff Neal's looking good and then obviously he gets caught with the elbow I'm not saying I'm a Carlos Prattis hater dude but I did also back Ian Gary against Carlos Prattis. And I think this is a fucking winnable fight for Leon Edwards here.

Prattis gets hit almost twice as often. He was taken down four times to Ian Garry. You don't think Leon's going to be able to get him down? Since losing to Kamaro Usman 10 years ago, Leon's taken down 11 of his last 15 opponents. Obviously, Pratt's power, a lot to worry about. 77% of his wins have come by knockout, including all five of his UFC wins. but Leon never been K-O'd before, okay? Not only that, he's going to want to avoid losing three in a row.

I know he's a former champion. He probably shouldn't get cut after losing three in a row, but he's also not someone the UFC has ever really been high on. So, like, there's a world he loses badly here. They're like, see you later, Leon, but I don't think his back is against the wall in that sense, but pride-wise, you can't lose three-in-row here, Leon. If you got your three-fight plan, you got to win this one. I do wish this was five rounds because I think that actually benefits

Leon even more here. But either way, dude, the odds swayed me here, I will say, but plus 170 on Leon Edwards, I'm taking that all day. Let's go. I understand your logic. I think you're forgetting an incredibly important factor. The vibes are just atrocious with Leon. The vibes couldn't be worse. I could be wrong. Vives is never like the most scientific way to bet on anything, but one of these guys has vibes through the roof, and one of these guys has vibes that

aren't just in the toilet. That toilet has been flushed. They're in the septic tank. The vibes are all the way away. Leon, because here's the issue. It's not just that Leon has lost to good fighters again, to your point, that we

talked about this, I think last episode, like I spent a lot of this year betting on fighters who only lost to good fighters and be like well they only lost a good fighter so i can't and then they just keep losing because like you know losing but gets more losing in some ways leon looks so bad in the losses it's not just that he lost it's that there were big stretches where he just like wasn't doing anything either and like he's always been a head case uh and if you're listening to this leon edwards i would apologize but i think you know it's true

and you know how I know it's true because the the defining moment of your career when you get inducted into the hall of fame not first ballot but at some point you'll go in there right the clip they will play will not really be of you it will be of you sullenly sitting on your stool while your coach inspires you to give a shit while he is functionally pleading with you to don't give up son don't let him bully you that is the clip of his career is his coach being like fight fight his ass like like stop not fighting and fight his ass and to his credit he he did do it though the more the time has gone on the more i'm like man that might just be a bolt of lightning situation and not like inevitability credit to him he beat kamar up in the rematch ain't no question about that but He's always been a bit of a headcase, and it makes sense to me that once he had beaten Camaro, that he was in a good place mentally. He was there.

He was up. He was high. But then once he started, once the ball started going downhill against Balal, he couldn't change it. And it was just a snowball. And that carried over against Sean Brady, where he was so bad in that fight that I don't, I don't know how, you know, the benefit is. Prattis isn't going to try and take him down, but I got, I got major concerns. And so I am on Carlos Prattis in this one at minus 200. If Leon goes wrestler mode, I think he does have a chance here.

But I don't have any idea where his head is. And I suspect it's not in a good place because the vibes atrocious. Are we taking the Bilal fight into consideration that it was at, like, top of my head, like 4 a.m. local time or something ridiculous for, Leon. I don't. All right. I mean, I'm just trying to grasp it. No, like I, I, I acknowledge that that could be a real thing. My stock answer to that always is you're a professional. You should be prepared for those things. And more, more to the point, you're actually a professional with means, right? Like, undercard fighters don't. Like, you have, you're the champion of the world. You can wake up every morning at 4 a.m. and fight for weeks on end or whatever. So I don't, uh, it could have been the case. but you know you just got to wear that loss because yeah you could have done better and then the sean brady well the brady i'm looking at it like brady's just so good and then i'm feeding into my other bets being like all right you know brady's really good that's why leon you know and

and all of that could be right and if leon leon's very good defensively if leon comes out and just tackles call his protest okay but protest is actually really good defensive wrestler too and he's just a much more dangerous dude like don't forget Leon Edwards is a dude who was winning but like not dazzling against the shell of Nate Diaz and then almost got

jawed by Nate friggin Diaz like I am certain I'll tell you I'm a hundred percent certain whether protest wins or loses he'll have a moment where he's got an opportunity because Leon seems to always give his opponents that

and I don't know when it'll come, but my guess is that Prattis actually converts when he gets it, because that dude, plus Carlos Prattis, I love him. The man smokes Marble Reds. He's the best. Why are we rooting for the lung cancer-ridden, you know, what are we doing here?

We're for the children, Chad, right? Because that's a real fighter. That's back when men were men. Take a bonging, like a real man. I mean, what are we doing here? Back when men were men and just ripped Marlboro Reds and got into fist fights. Like this man is a

real tie. Kaleo Roundtree he lives in Thailand. He speaks Thai and does all that. But a real tie, a real Muay Thai fighter. They are smoking infinite cigarettes and just beating the souls out of people. Call us

Protest, the realest tie fighter in the UFC. We are not making good time. Yeah, I know. That's okay. We'll go quicker. We'll go quick. Well, we probably won't hear because the main card is just so good, man. As we go to a lightweight contest, B'Neil Daryush taking on Benoit Sandini,

Benny, minus 200 favorite. Daryush plus 164. Daryush, lost a couple, got back on track with the unanimous decision win over Renato Morcano, a U.S. 317 in June, and BSD. He's back in business, baby.

He had lost a couple, too. People were questioning where he's at. Two-fight Winstreet now, though. Face Crank, submit. mission over the new hotness, Maricio Huffy, at UFC Paris in September. So kind of a quick turnaround for BSD, and he gets a guy up in the rankings in front of him in Binald Daryush. For your reference, Daryush, six and two is an underdog here.

And Benoit Sondini, five, and two is a betting favorite. Daryush has cashed a lot of underdog tickets, most on the card. So, well, technically not most on the card, but by far the best. just rate on the card. So, how are we feeling about this one, Luke? Damn, Daryush catches a dog last time, too, because I was on Moikano, and I remember being disappointed about it.

Darius, man, I feel like he should be over 40 years old. Somehow he's still 36 years old. I feel like he's been around forever. It's because he got the Silver Fox. Trix you, it. He just went right into it. He was like, fuck it, I ain't dying this or anything. But, dude, he was finished in back-to-back fights

before the Moikano, but they came to the number two and number three ranked lightweight. It's not bad losses at all. You mentioned BSD getting back on track. He subbed Kyle Preppoleck and then Hoofee, but like, come on, is Prepelek really on the UFC level? I don't know.

Hoofee kind of looked completely lost on the ground. Just feel like I can't really buy into those wins yet. At the same time, Darius, I don't know. Benil, he gets hit less often, but BSD lands more strikes per minute. And also BSD averages twice as many takedown per 15 minutes with four takedowns. My guy got a war, BSD, he hates decisions, dude.

He went the distance once in 19 pro fights in his UFC debut, and he was like, nope, never doing that again. B'Neal, on the other hand, feels like he only wins. If it goes the distance, he's been finished in the last four years. He's either been finished or wins by decision. His last four wins have come by decision. I'm gonna, like, dude, I was torn between the over one and a half and fight does not go the distance.

I'm leaning, fight does not go the distance here in a parlay. I'm actually going to parlay it was Chevy. I just feel like I don't want Darius to get hurt or finish, I should say, but I feel like, I don't know, dude, I smell an upset from Dariush, but he's only going to win by decision. But I also feel like BSD, you just mentioned two-month turnaround or whatever. I could see a world where Darius gets him out of there. On the other hand, it's kind of like a hedge of like if BSD really is the goods and maybe those two losses were just kind of flukes then all right i got bsd by finish which is probably

how he's going to win this fight so feeling good about it 76% of their combined pro fights have not gone the distance so yeah i mean i that they this i'd be pretty surprised if this one goes to the cards not totally shocked but i'd be pretty surprised uh this is i thought i had a good read on this fight and then i dug into it a little more and i totally changed my opinion um because in my head i was like, well, uh, Benoit seems to be putting it together. He's still young. He's improving. He's very young and his emmaicry. He's a little, he's not like a young man, but he's only been professional in May fighter for like five or six years. So he's still like learning how to fight. He just rose so quickly. Um, that now that that was, I was like, yeah, he rose really quickly

and he fought Dustin Poirier and Dustin Poir is really good. And so that was a lesson. And then Hanata Morcano was a lesson. And now he's putting it together. You go back and watch it, and the Ruffy win is a great win. The Prapolik win less good. He did get it done. Had some moments struggled in that fight. So I'm not entirely sure sort of where he's at, what his level is right now. Daryush, my original read on this fight was, well, you know, Daryush is going to come in.

And Daryush is can stuff takedowns, but that's not going to matter because he gets into wild reckless brawls and I think BSD probably wins sort of a wild just duck in the head and chucking it brawl which is absolutely a thing Dary Usual embrace. He has done it for much of his career.

And so if they do that, give me the dude who I think is more durable, certainly much younger or faster, probably a little stronger at this point. And then I was like, I mean, maybe he doesn't do that. Maybe he just tackles him. Because Nato Morcano beat the soul

out of Benwasandini. like the moment he got him down it was curtains and i like moikano i think morcano is a very like a solid fighter benio der a yushe handled moikano consummately like benal der a yusch is a much better fighter in my opinion uh than hanato moikano was and so like it's a little mhmathie right it's definitely a little piece of this year but at the same time it's still just like i don't i don't know man if he just tackled benal der a eusch is probably like the best grappler that nobody thinks of as being a good grappler. Like, the real heads understand.

Like, the, but like, casual fans aren't like, oh, yeah, that's Benile Darius, like, legitimate world-class grappler, which he is. And so I think if he just comes in and tackles BSD, he wins this fight pretty comfortably. And I kind of think he's just going to do that after I thought about it a little while. I won't at all be surprised if he doesn't, you know, if he tries to play a stand-in-bang game. and he can maybe win that too i think it's a worse plan for him but uh yeah you know another there's this is also another five year age gap so that is a little concerning always just be aware of those in my mind but i went ahead and took him i got uh benny at plus 165 and uh

there's no sub prop yet or at least i couldn't it wasn't available at the place i had i want to see what the sub prop looks like um because i'm interested right And we will move on to the prelims. And now maybe we can pick it up a little bit. Though a lot of these prelim fights don't. I was going to say, I have a lot to say about some of these. A lot of these fights also have some bangers, you know, interesting. This is the best part of the year for a reason, man.

First one up, I don't actually know how the order, I think, that may change. But to the best of my knowledge, our order is going to be one Boe Nickel, taking on Hadoffo Vieira in a middleweight contest, bow nickel. Mine is 2.30 betting favorite to come back on Vieira plus 190. This is Bo's first fight since his first loss when he got TKO'd by Reinead de Hider back in May. Vieira coming off a unanimous decision win over Trayshon Gore back in August. You know, this is the textbook, Wrestling versus BJJ, a super high-level collegiate wrestler probably would have had, we can't say for certain, but Bo Neckle was poised to potentially have a successful,

to what extent that would be, hard to say, but some level of success on the senior wrestling circuit, if he had done that, he happens to compete in a weight class where there are multiple world champions ahead of him. So it would have taken him a while to sort of get through the kind of heater, like Murderer's Row at, I think it's 84 kilograms. that he competed at.

So he came to M. May. Hidalfa Viera, like 11-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Abu Dhabi. Oh, you're no-gi jih Tzu if you're counting 80-c's. Classic style matchup here. Luke, how are we feeling about who gets her done? I mean, you just mentioned they're both great on the ground and their own discipline, but like that being said,

dude, this has such potential to be standing the entire time. And there's a 0% chance if it goes to the ground. Yeah. both guys do average over three takedons for 15 minutes but neither guy has been taken down before I'd favor bow in the wrestling department obviously but it'll be interesting to see if Hadoffo tries to offensively wrestle at all he has taken down eight of his nine UFC opponents and five of his six UFC wins have come by sub so obviously that's his best path to victory but obviously known for the wrestling he actually only has five takedowns in his five UFC

fights so like hasn't really needed to use it and while it was so fucking boring he He has shown he can win a fight standing for 15 minutes and at MSG of all places. Interested to see how Bo rebounds after his first pro loss. I would love to see him be aggressive here and just go right for his bread and butter. Dude, take him down right away and just see what the fuck happens. But it's obviously really risky going to the ground with Adolfo Vieira, so I don't blame him at all. If it stays standing, Hidalphal gets hit almost twice as often. Bo is going to have a three-inch reach advantage as well.

That can't hurt. Also worth noting, all six of Hidalphal's UFC wins have come to guys. with losing records in the UFC. Half of them, no longer even on the roster. All this to say, I'm favoring Bo Nickel. I'm thinking it goes a little long. I'm taking Bo Money Line in a Parlay. I'm also taking the over one and a half in a parlay.

Bow's hit the over one and a half in two of his last three and Adolfo's hit it in four of his last six. Support for this show comes from the Audible Original The Downloaded Two, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days less. has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Frazier reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian

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Please play responsibly. I think you and I have a pretty similar read on this one. I am on Bo Nichael, but I'm not on Bo Nichael straight. I don't think that that would be a terrible piece of parley fodder, right? like if you wanted to do that um but i i just go went bow by decision at plus 140 um for i mean a lot of the stuff you said there right like i i think this fight is predominantly going to be on the feet i don't think it off of the air is a very good striker i don't think it off of air i can get bow down even if he does i suspect bow bow bow is a talented enough grappler to avoid anything

serious get back to his feet where he is just a little a little better at striking and so So I don't know that this would be a barn burner, but I think Vieira doesn't really get finished. He got tapped one time, which was an insane thing, but he didn't get knocked out. And Bo doesn't swing that sort of a hammer. I think this is just sort of a get right fight for Bo Nicol. He gets to develop. He gets to improve, gets to work on a striking, and he gets a decision win. So Bo by decision plus 140.

Why do you think this is the featured prelim? Because it has the potential to be one of the most boring fights of the night. and for like the fight that's supposed to get people to buy the paper mean. Yeah. Well, because originally Bo was on the main card and then they bumped him off the main car. Which I'm all four, but he shouldn't have been on the main card.

No, the fight we're about to talk about. Exactly. I was just going to say that. Previously they had Dary Euse Benwasandini as a feature prelim, which makes sense as being like exciting, but also that fight is far too good and should be your main card opener. But the fight we're about to talk about,

another middleweight contest, in fact. This should be the feature prelim because it's going to, a bang. It's Roman Koppelov. It's Greg Robocop Rodriguez. Rodriguez minus 165. Koppelov plus 140. Koppelov coming off unanimcision lost to Paulo Costa in July. And Robocop knocked out Jackramansen in June at UFC 317. Uh, this fight's going to rock. How are you feeling about the sides? My first note on this fight is this fight should be the featured prelim because it's going to bang. Both guys are six and two in their last eight fights. Hobocop. probably has the better wins in that stretch though if you really want to dissect them not only that robocop also lands more strikes per minute copy love has a negative striking differential which is never good especially a middleweight dude uh both these guys do love to stand and bang with 74% of their combined wins coming by ko but we always forget that robocop actually comes from a bjj background so like the man's no slouch on the ground he also averages over two takedowns for 50 minutes and has gotten at least two takedowns in half of his ufc wins fight end

by K.O. is a pretty tempting prop whenever it drops for a fight like this, but Koppilov is also never want to fight by submission and has been submitted twice before, which tells me he can easily be exposed on the ground. I don't know if Robocop's going to follow that game plan because the man loves to stand

and bang, but either way, I like him regardless of where this fight goes, I'm taking him money line in a parlay. Let's go Hobocop. I'm the opposite side here. I think it would be better for Robocop 1 because I love Robocop. I think it's fun. I think you can certainly win.

I am deeply concerned that I've tied up underdog money in Roman Koppelov who lost to Paulo Costa, who I don't know if Paula Costa can fight anymore, and Romacopalov lost to him. But Coppola is a very good defensive wrestler. Robocop sometimes chooses to use his all-world grappling, and when he does, he's really, really good. But a lot of times, he just wants to stand and bang. And frankly, he's very good at that, too. But he's so reckless.

I kind of think if he does that, Koppelov can just sort of. sort of smack him and I don't know that Robocop has like Apollo Costa hammer the body over and over again. I think he'll, this is going to be a brawl. I kind of, that's my belief and I kind of think Roman Coppola can just get him or at least it feels 50-50 to me and I'm getting a pretty good underdog price. So mostly I should just be betting unders here on this fight and I didn't even look at them because I'm a stupid, stupid man. But this fight's going to be. a rule and can't wait for it. The under one and a half is plus

120. The over one and a half is minus 155. Yeah, I'll take the under. That sounds great. I mean, maybe not. One and a half is low, but yeah, I don't know. The under two and a half of whatever it is, minus

300 is probably even worth it. So we go and we move on because we're going to talk about a women's flyweight contest. A rematch. We have a rematch upon us as there Blanchfield takes on Tracy Cortez. Blanchefield, your betting favorite, minus 245. Cortez, the underdog plus 210. Both women coming off unanimous decision wins.

Blanchefield beat Rosamma Yunis in November of last year, at U.C. Edmonton, and Cortez beat Viviani Arrugio in June at U.C. 317. One of the rare instances, Luke, where the previous fights winner is a not enormous but a decently sized enough underdog despite the fact that Blanchfield hasn't fought for a year. She was booked. She was supposed to fight Macy Barber in May. Barber fell through

on fight night basically and so Blanchfield's been waiting. How does that factor in? Does it factor into you? How does the first fight factor into you? Where are we at on this pivotal flyweight contest? So first fights factoring in a lot for me here because the only research I did

for this fight was watch their first fight. All right. Tracy won a split decision. It was 29, 28. All three judges scorecards. Two gave it to Tracy. One gave it to Aaron. Here's a thing, though. I was actually really impressed with Tracy's offensive wrestling in that fight. I was expecting Aaron to be the one pushing the pace with the wrestling, but it was actually Tracy trying to get the takedowns for majority of the time. Her striking was also much better, dude. She was landing cleanly on the feet. I do think Aaron's striking has come a long way since then. That fight was six years ago. But I would still favor Tracy in a striking match today. I know people have said that fight was kind of controversial, but I thought it was like a super clear 29, 28 for Tracy. I gave her the first two rounds. Erin did win the third round, in my opinion. She got to take down, stayed on top, threatened with like an arm triangle at one point.

But in a three round fight today, I feel like it could totally go the same way. Like, they've obviously both gotten better. Aaron's offensive wrestling today is leaps and bounds better than it wasn't their first fight. I guess that's why she's such a big favorite here. but like Tracy's already proven she can do it once. I think she's got the real potential for an upset here. I'm not going to take her money line, but I am going to take her with the spread whenever that drops.

Because of the odds, I'm willing to take her at plus three and a half, but I feel like sometimes the plus five and a half and seven and a half are not even that much further, like, you know, minus money away from that. So I might even take her as high as seven and a half, but I would take her at three and a half. I think she can steal around again, even if she comes out on the losing side of this one. Aaron Blanchfield's going to run over her.

Aaron Blanchfield was robbed in the first fight. What? Aaron Blenchfield absolutely should have beaten Tracy Cortez in the first fight as a victa in like 2020, I think. 2019, I watched it, bro. I'm telling you, Tracy won the first two rounds. Anne Blenchfield won that fight. Aaron Blentzfield has had six years to think about losing that fight and she's going

to come in and make a statement. I don't, Tracy Cortez is not bad. don't know that Chase Cortez is good. So, you know, that's concerning. But nobody's really good anyway. Yeah, I think Blanchold's going to come and make a statement because she's going to be keyed up for this one. She needs to make a statement.

Things are frisky at 125 right now. And, you know, she's got to do something to stand out. And this is going to be an opportunity for her to do so. That being said. So I've got her in a parlay. minus 260 price tag in a three three leg parlay going down here's the question though to my good friend lucas the over two and a half it's around minus four 25 do we make this leg three of the climb do we go for a triple axle climb this weekend with the over two and a half cortez seven

straight decisions all of our uc fights have gone to the cards blanchefield five and three hitting this over in her UFC career so that is certainly a little bit more concerning um you know the ones that she's won have been quicker molly mccann jessica and josh j a aldrich but three straight decisions for blanchefield um kind of like this but i don't like it as much as i like the other two so i thought i thought we could talk it out so all right as much as i just said i feel like you know tracy could steal around here obviously i foresee it going to the score cards but when you were talking about, you know, Aaron's going to run right through her here. She's going to put on a statement.

I then envisioned Aaron, like, submitting her. And I was like, oh, that's sort of the concern. Yeah. I'm like, oh, wouldn't that be a statement? And now I'm like, hmm, I don't, I'm still rocking with my bet, but I don't know if I love the over two and a half here, Chad. Not at that price tag. It's the concern.

I do think it's going to cash. But the other thing, Blanchefield is 26. She hasn't looked as good lately, though I think that can be explained by elevation of competition level, frankly. But you would hope that this is the time she should be coming in developing, really, really starting to stack on and improve. I'm keeping it encircled. I haven't made a decision yet. We're not going to punch this in, but that is potentially the third leg of a possible climb. Otherwise, we're just parlaying up Aaron Blanchfield with two fighters to come, not.

one in this next fight though because the middle prelim cards they end with a ban and weight contest I think this is the most slept on fight of the weekend those who know they know Malcolm Wellmaker taking on Cody Haddon Wellmaker minus 160 betting favorite

to come back on Haddon plus 125 Wellmaker 2 and O in the UFC and a guy who looks poised to be getting a big push he was at Atlanta my stomping grounds here earlier this year he knocked out Chris Mutino in round one. It was a set-up fight, and he delivered expeditiously.

Hadn a bit of a forgotten man. He has a unanimous decision win over Dan Argueta in October of the year last, been out for a hot minute, one and O in the UFC. Both guys coming off the same season of Contender Series, in fact. How are we feeling, again, oh, also, Wellmaker was supposed to fight Sir Hay City. That was a set-up fight for Wellmaker to get another knockout, another performance bonus and start to push him instead cody hadden steps up a much more difficult contest how are you feeling about this loop i hate this fight so much because i like both guys so much

and one of them is going to have to lose and this is just i i this is arguably bad matchmaking because i feel like we could prop both these guys up for a few more fights and get them maybe when they're both ranked one day i don't know maybe i'm maybe i'm exceeding expectations here but either way uh well makers shone he's the goods dude it's got the touch of death hasn't been out of the first round in his three Zufa fights. Haddon, on the other hand, did go the distance in that lone UFC fight you talked about, but he's pretty well-rounded. Wellmaker lands over seven strikes per minute, which is a lot. And then Haddon is like, I see your seven and I raise you nine strikes per minute, which is just absolutely wild. If either of them can keep up that pace

during the course of their career, they're going to be fun as hell to watch. Biggest unknown here to me is Wellmakers take-down defense and just grappling skills in general. He does have 100% take-down defense, but he's only been shot on twice by, you know, guys who are maybe not the best wrestlers. Haddon, on the other hand, he can wrestle. He averages almost three takedowns per 15 minutes, and he did win his Dana-White contender series fight by submission. Also, how does Wellmaker look if this goes past the first round? How does his gas tank look?

Like, there's just too many unknowns for me here, and I'm hoping we get some answers, meaning, like, if we get a first-round, Well-Maker-K-O, I feel like we got no answers again, you know? I hope this goes a little long just to see how both guys look when it gets there. I'm torn here. I'm going to take the either or bet when it drops jet. I'm taking the Wellmaker, K.O. Or Hadden's sub bet.

Thinking it could be plus money, might be just minus money. Maybe I'll have to parlay it. But six of Wellmakers' 10 pro wins have come by K.O. And two of Haddon's last three wins have come by sub. I'm really just hoping that, like, if it goes to the ground, Wellmaker looks completely lost. Or if it stays standing, Wellmaker, you know, does what he's been doing.

I'm a goody Haddon. I like Wellmaker. coming off contender series, I had hadn't ranked as a better prospect for the specific reason that Cody hadn't is quite talented and he's much younger. I think Malcolm Wellmaker, the hope is he's Carlos Prattis, right? Because he's old. He's 30. He's in his 30s. And he's still learning to fight and he's very, very talented. If he was much younger, he'd be one of the best prospects in the sport. The time is now for him. He can't, if he knock on wood, God forbid, you know, tears an ACL and sits out for a year, well, it might turf his whole career because

it's just like, yeah, okay, well, now you're 32 and you're still not moving up the rankings. Like the window is so small for him to hit, he has to be called his protests. And that can happen is very rare. It is very rare for that to work. And I think this fight is really tough. Cody Haddon is super well-rounded, super tough, well-maker certainly has the higher apex skills, right? Like he's the more dangerous guy. But Cody Haddon, you know, gets a few takedowns, just sort of mixes the martial arts.

Wellmaker might be in for it here. I think it would be really cool if Malcolm Wellmaker wins. I'm rooting for him to win, frankly. Both he's on my fantasy roster. So that's important for me. But I loved it when he was booked against Surrey City. I was like, oh, I've locked up the belt.

Sick. Now, much more difficult. But he can't sustain a law. as well as Cody Haddon can. If Cody Haddon loses his fight, that's okay. He goes back to the drawing board, you know, gets in the, gets more time, develops, and can grow from here. Wellmaker needs this much more, and so I hope he gets it, but I think there's value on Haddon

as an underdog because I think this fight is a straight up coin flip to me. And so I'm really looking forward to it. It is outside of the main card, this is the fight, by far the fight on the card that's not a main car fight that I'm the most interested in. Me too. in. We're going to rip through these. We've got five more fights, and I have very little to say on most of them.

You know, one or two things, but I think we can maybe make up some time, because we're a little past the point of what we wanted. But let's move to the early prelims. Kyle Dawkes takes on Gerald Mearshaart in a middleweight contest. Dawkes made his way back to the UFC earlier this year. Knocked out Michelle Paheta at UFC

Shanghai back in August. Mearsart looks to be on his way out. Three-fight losing streak. T-KO'd by Mikhail Oleg Seych at UFC. 319 back in August Dawkes considerable betting favorite minus 370 Mearsharth plus 2995

and I'll just tell you this I'll get my bit out of the way and you can wax poetic for however long you want I'm not a huge Kyle Dawkes supporter but he's a perfectly fine fighter and I think Gerald Meershard he's done we're here and however long he says here is here

but I believe that he's out of here and Kyle Dawkes has enough offense to get this done and so he is the second leg of the parley with Aaron Blanchefield is Kyle yeah I don't even have much more to say I was going to say this reminds me a lot of last week's co-made matchnell Joseph Morales it wasn't that I was so high on Joseph Morales it was just oh matchnell is completely done I'll bet on anyone fighting that guy good cop I'm feeling the same way about GM3 like I love the guy and I you know cashed him

against Edmund that time you know I look back on that fondly but I'm not even high on Daukas, I just feel like he's going to run right through GM3 here. I'm taking him by finish in a parley. Yeah, I will say just for the record, Daucus, two and three is a betting favorite. He's not very good as a betting favorite. Mearsart, only 7 and 12 is a dog. So he is the guy who has more underdog wins than Darius, but he has 12 losses to Darius is two. So there you go.

A featherweight contest, Pat Sabatini takes on Chepa Meredescal. Sabatini, slight betting favorite minus 135, the comeback on Chepe plus 120. Sabatini, two-fight dub streak. Unanimous decision win over Ewanerson Brito back in April. Chepe, 5 and O in the UFC. UD. Ricardo Ramos back in March, trying to move to 6-0 and become an actual legit player at 145 pounds. I'll also take the lead on this one because I don't have too much to say.

It is, if Pat Sabatini can get the wrestling going, probably going to be tough for Chepe. The concerns for Chepe here. He's not a super dangerous guy, so it's not like he's going to punish Pat Sabatini for spamming takedowns. But he's been a fairly decent defensive wrestler. I think if he can keep it on the feet enough, he can get the dub here. MMA math also. Chepe beat Damon Jackson.

Sabatini lost to Damon Jackson. So if you put any stock in that, I took a flyer for funsy. He's on the undefeated Chepa Mariscoll. Not undefeated in life, but undefeated in the UFC. Because he's on quite a run, and I think it'd just be fun. So plus 120, I bet Chepe. Hell yeah. My initial read, just reading this fight on paper was, oh, Pat Sabatini's probably going

to wrestle him his way to a decision victory here. As I actually looked into it, I was pleasantly surprised with the Chepe side, dude. Like, Chepe's not a bad wrestler himself. He averages close to three takedowns for 50 minutes. He's taken down all five of his UFC opponents. Also worth noting, you mentioned it, his takedown defense, way better. 73% takedown defense to Sabatini's 50%. Here's the thing I found really interesting, though,

said striking wise chepe lands almost three times more often as sabatini in fact the most significant strikes pat sabatini has ever landed in his nine ufc fights is 36 significant strikes for reference chepe has landed more than 36 significant strikes in all five of his fights and he's had over 70 in four of those five so he's pretty much doubling pat sabatini's output in all of his fights also like chepe even beat 36 significant strikes in his uh one of his UFC finishes you know it was like a second round finish so i just feel like there is a world he stuffs enough of these takedowns like you said and just has enough volume i took him as a dog as well plus 120 on that let's fucking go i think uh there's a world where maybe the better bet is just to do a point spread bet for chepe because i suspect he'll get around even if he does lose but those weren't up so i just went for the dog let's have some fun I was trying, frankly, to get a bet on every fight on the card, a thing I know that you know a lot about.

And so I did it. We move on to a women's straw weight contest. Angela Hill takes on Fatima Klein. Klein, big betting favorite. Mine is 470. Come back on Hill plus 360. Hill, coming off unanimous decision, lost Yasmin Lucinda in August. Before that, I believe she won a split-e over Ketland-Suzza,

but most people thought she lost that. So she could be 0 in 3. She is 41 years. years old but going to be 41 in january that's old for any professional athlete much less fistfighter uh clines on a two-fight winning streak this is very simple i'm taking fatima clime to win this fight also shockingly fatima cline's kind of enormous i think of angela hill is like a tall straw weight fatima cline is like three inches taller than her or some shit uh she's the third leg in my parley it's kail dachas it's fatima cline it's aaron blanchefield pays out a plus

one, 13. Damn. All right. See, I saw the, all right, first of all right, first of all I want to say Fatima Klein, born on Long Island, you know, been reping her for a little bit now rooting for her. Angie Hill, though, you know, trained in New York City for a while, went to college here, I believe. So, you know, she's also a New Yorker in my book. A little tough for me to decide this one. Angie does land more, uh, close to two more strikes per minute than Fatima, but she also gets hit twice as often. Fatima has shown her take down defense isn't the strongest. She's been taken down six times in her three UFC fights. But like, is Angela Hill really known for her wrestling, yeah. Obviously not.

Is worth noting, though, Jed, she has a takedown in her last three wins. She started doing it. Yeah, so, I saw the odds here, and we're like, oh, shit, those are a little too far apart for me. So a lot like the Tracy Cortez, Aaron Blanchfield fight, I'm taking

the spread bet here on Angela Hill. I will take it at seven and a half, though. Like, one judge has to give her one round, that's it. So I think she could get that done. Yeah. The other thing, the over, uh the alt over whenever that drops one and a half if that somehow stayed at minus 500 smashing it yeah uh honestly the over two and a half feels like parley fodder at minus

350 maybe i end up parlaying that with blancheville cortez over two and a half if i don't uh climb with blancheville cortez let's move on two fights left i can't imagine we're going to spend more than two minutes on this fight by sangr sursukaiev takes on eric mccanico Uh, biggest betting favor on the card to Sakayev minus 1,000. The comeback on Mechanico plus 560. Jimmy Suss, as we've affectionately dubbed him, because on contender series, Dana White did not know this man's name. He could not say, but by Sangor Sikayev and just called him Jimmy, which frankly was a great joke from Dana. And so we've called him Jimmy Suss.

Uh, he's one and O in the UFC. He is the guy who fought on contender series and four days later. later made his UFC debut at USC 319, good friends and training partner with the middleweight champion of the world. I don't know if you've heard of him, a little guy named Tom Zatjimaev. And Sue Chikar's really talented, super, super talented prospect. He was my top rated prospect off Contender Series this most recent season or top three. Maybe he wasn't one.

I'd have to look. McConico is a guy. He's going to get run over. everything is bad in this, but again, I was trying to get a bet on every fight, and so I took Jimmy Suss by K.O. at minus 215.

Damn. All right. I mean, I'm not going to add much more here, you know. There's not much to say. I just want to say, McConaugos one UFC win

was a very controversial split decision over Cody Brundage in which he was outstruck and taken down three times. That's pretty much all I got here. I'm taking Sousa. He's going to get outstruck, and he might get taken down. I went with the K.O.

prop because most of Sucyayev's wins are by KOTKO. See, but he got the sub in his debut, so I'm a little worried. I took him by finish. I just played it's a safer play, but I was like, oh, let's play the odds here. I think he's going to knock him out. I guess we'll find out. And the last fight to talk about, it wasn't even 100% certain this was happening,

and it ruined my have a bet on every fight because I don't have a bet on this one. Luke, it's Slava cause Vachislav Borshev, taking on Matthias, Camillo, Slava. two-fight skid, one, three, and one over his past five coming off the submission loss to Terrence McKinney. Camilo got tapped by Gabe Green as UFC debut in May, and yet Camilo is the betting favorite at minus 175. The comeback on Slava is a good old-fashioned plus 136. If I was going to bet on this Luke, I would just be looking at a submission prop for Camilo. He doesn't have that many sub wins, but this is how you defeat Slava. and this was the one fight

I just couldn't justify a bet I don't have any feel for it I didn't want to do too much research it's opening the card it is what it is I was like sad going through Slava Claus's resume I was like damn yo wasn't this guy

kind of hyped coming off contender series I mean his people just liked him because he was fun he sort of had a fun gimmick and he can be violent when he gets the sort of fight he wants but he's so limited dude I mean like there's just a clear path

to victory against him and you just got to take the man to the ground It's as simple as that. He was taken down in all five of his UFC losses for a total of 23 times. And although Camilo did come up short against Gabe Green in his UFC debut, he did get two takedowns in that fight. So he's shown he can take it down. As long as Camilo doesn't gas out or isn't like a total donk because I really know nothing about this guy,

I feel like this should be smooth sailing for him. I'm going to take him money line in a parlay, good enough value on it's like minus 160 right now. I'll take that. And that is UFC 322. thank you for tuning in and listening to us. It's going to be a damn good time this weekend, man. And then it's on to guitar, you know, Armand Suruki and Dan Hooker,

pretty damn good fight card next week as well. Certainly what I'm excited about, but we'll talk about that next week. In the meantime, Luke, thanks for joining. Now is the time. Plug all the things. Tell the people where they can find you. This might go out a little bit earlier.

Certainly, you know, I know morning combat's coming up on. Thursday next main car minute all that stuff go for it so i'll be on boots on the ground i'll be at the fights this weekend i'll be doing all the fight shit all week so you can tune into main car minute you want to see media day content uh i don't know if i'm going to do anything for the presser way in but saturday i'll be doing all the post fight content all that stuff so uh you can check that out new prop quiz finale again jose young's been the bane coming out friday jett already mentioned mk thursday no watch along for me this week since i'll be at the fights but uh either

tune in for that i do that every weekend so i'll be back for katar and you can you can watch along with us and in a may fighting me and mike heck uh we programming note there's not a btel on thursday we're doing it tuesday but this will have already uh that'll have already happen by the time this drops otherwise it's the same content you come to know and love we'll do a post show we'll work on a few other things we're just going to have a damn good time with the best card of the year and hopefully we'll be saying ann new to islam makachev and honestly i wouldn't even be upset if we said an anew to jang lily because that would be pretty cool either way thanks for listening y'all we will see y'all next week love you

Thank you.