MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | UFC Vegas 54 Best Bets | Is Rakic The New Money-Maker In UFC’s LHW Division?

Episode Date: May 11, 2022

Fresh on the heels of UFC 274, the No Bets Barred podcast returns to dissect UFC Vegas 54 and find value in a smaller card (by modern UFC standards). Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew break down the main event between Jan Blachowicz and Aleksandar Rakic, debate the merits of putting money on Ryan Spann, and celebrate the clock-like consistency of Katlyn Chookagian. And while there are no Wolfpack Wagers this week, Conner and Jed do find themselves on opposites side of a fight for the first time, meaning the head-to-head battle finally begins... Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. We are back with episode two of No Betts, BARD. First episode going over, UFC 274. Maybe not as successful as we hoped we were going to be. Jed, how we feeling, man? I'm still feeling great, man. Just because I got absolutely hammered in bets last week, You know, we would have obviously hoped to get off on a better foot, but, you know, you talk about it all the time.

We talk about it all the time. It's a marathon, not a sprint. And more importantly, I had a great time last weekend. The fights themselves weren't, there were a lot of duds, but, you know, I was sweating. I was sweating the whole Blackheaven off Marco Sosurio de Lima heavyweight. So the rest of you who didn't tail me on that. you probably saw a heavyweight fight that was awful and you hated it but for all of those who did we were captivated and again that's the point of betting you know you get you get skin in the game

and get way more interested in what's going on in an otherwise forgettable card yeah exactly dude i was uh i was sweating out a lot of things that randy brown chaos william shout out to the wolf pack wager that was a fantastic cash uh that was a great fight the michael chanler knockout all time high i was i was literally running around my apartment like screaming. I was in shock. And then obviously the main event was fantastic. So overall, I also had a great time watching UFC 274, kind of a nothing week for me. Didn't even lose a full unit, you know. So we're on the next week. We're on to UFC Vegas 54, Blahovic versus Rockich. Not as quite as good as a card as last week. I mean, if we want to be

completely honest here. So it isn't. It isn't. I mean, it's. definitely obviously not as good as last week but at the end of last week's show we really bagged on this card and i think that maybe that was a little unjust because this is it's not a huge name value card the co-main event is we're going to talk about it but uh as as my compatri at mhmat fighting dot comrade allexander cayley likes to say that's more of a second to last fight not really a co-main event nobody's tuning into this because ryan spanned and eunuchalabur are on it. But the rest of the card, it's got some good fights, and I got

to say, Connor, you and I haven't been on air and talked about this, but one of my favorite things. It's 11. Fights, baby? This is tidy. Now, I know it's getting started a little later in the evening, so that kind of takes some of the edge from us, but look, 15 fights last weekend and we lost the Soroni

fight on the day of, which is a shame because Lozon was going to do the damn thing for us. And then we're in the black, baby. The closer we got to fight night, I was starting to think Joe Lozahn round one was a lock. And I think Vegas, I really, I believe Vegas got word that we were just pounding Lozon. And by pounding, I mean putting a quarter unit on it, round one plus 800. And they got so scared they had to call the fight off.

Look, they got shook. But, you know, losing that fight, we still have 14. That's just a lot of fights down. We've got a tight 11 here. You know, hopefully all of these will stay on. And we can have a great, great, great Saturday night. Absolutely. That's what hopefully we're going to do after 11 fights.

We're going to find ourselves in the green, in the profitable things. Another interesting thing about this card, six main card fights, five pre-limbs. You don't see that too often where there's more main card fights than there are pre-limb fights. You do not, though, I think, again, we could, we equivble about what counts as a main card fight, since it's all playing on ESPN2. an ESPN Plus, the differentiation between prelim and Maine is very minimal and especially with, you know, no disrespect to some of these fighters, but is Frank Camacho Manuel Torres? Is that really a main card quality fight? I like what Alexander Cayley said, you know, Co-Maine, it's really the second of the last

fight of the evening. That's kind of how I feel about a lot of these main card plays. Let's get into it, though. Let's dive right into the main event. We've got a former champion fighting in the main event, recently a champion. Jan Blahovych, 289 going up against Alexander Rockich. Right now, currently the line's sitting at Rockich minus 190. Jan Blahovic, coming back, you can get him at plus 160.

Yombovlovich, man. First fight since losing the belt of Glover Tchaera back in October. Terrible performance by him. He's come out and said that he woke up knowing he was going to lose the belt that day. I was on Blahovic that night. I can't get around to putting my money on him again after the performance that he had in his last fight. I have a side play on this as a parley piece, but as far as a actual side picking a fighter, I do not have a play here.

I don't know about you as far as picking a fighter in this one. I shouldn't. I should not have a play here, but I do because I find it almost impossible not to bet on main events. even when maybe I don't have the most confidence or maybe the line is screaming at me, Jed, Jed, just don't give me your money. This is, you can just move on down the road and wait. I can't do it. And that's what this podcast is about, baby.

No bets are barred. And so because of that, I'm taking action. But I am with you. I had money on, on Yanni Blocko last time. I thought he was going to be able to stuff Glover's takedowns and get that legendary Polish power to work. And he just really couldn't. And that made me reevaluate essentially the entirety of Jan Belhovic's career, where for most of it, he wasn't also ran. You know, he was a guy who was good but never great. And I think at the end of his career, kind of after watching the Glover fight and

sort of reconsidering, I think we may be in a situation where Jan Belhovic had a really good run, but wasn't an exceptional fighter. And I don't know if Alexander Rockich is an acceptable. And I don't know if Alexander Rockich is an exceptional fighter, but I know that he is a damn good fighter. He is a much younger. He has much higher volume. I think he's going to be a lot faster than Jan. And for me, the biggest question here is just how different Jan will look in this fight because he can kick.

Kicks are obviously a huge weapon for him. And against Glover, he didn't feel confident throwing that body kick. That's really patented of his. But I think Rockich is just ascending. This is a guy who should be undefeated, frankly. And I think if he was undefeated, this line would probably look a little different. The whole narrative around his career would be a little different. So it's a bit juice, but I'm taking Rocketship minus 190.

And I wouldn't hate him as a parlay piece, even though, as we mentioned last week, I usually save that for kind of those people above minus 225, minus 250. Yeah, I'm in complete agreements with you. I think he's going to be the faster fighter. I think he's the more athletic fighter. It's what you said, man. He's on the ascension. What we have to find out, which is,

what's keeping me from playing Rockets here, is Jan Blahovic on the descent? Is he on the decline, or was that one bad outing for him? I mean, he is one fight removed from being the title holder, the man wearing the belt, the Polish power. I mean, I just don't have enough confidence. I don't have enough knowledge to go against him or to play him, so I'm just going to stay away from the fighter side. What I do like is a parlay piece of the over one and a half in this one, minus 275. The Polish power. As much of the Polish power is true, 15 of his last 18 fights have gone over one and a half. And he's the one that I was more worried about. I think Rockich's plan here should be what he did against Diego Santos. Stay on the outside. Stay patient. Use the reach advantage.

Use the speed. Go in, go out. You know, and just kind of tag him up as the fight goes on. You know, Rockich, of course, he's got the knockouts on his resume. We've seen, you know, the head kick in 40 seconds, just flat lying dudes. But, you know, but, you know, he's got the knockouts. But since joining the UFC, man, he goes to a decision more often than not. Five of the seven UFC fights have seen the scorecards. It's going to be sweaty, obviously, light, heavyweights. Both the dudes have finishing capabilities. But I do think we get to the over one and a half.

And at minus two 75, I was willing to pay that price. I think that's totally reasonable. And, again, it's probably a better bet than mine, if we're just being honest here, because here's one thing. Or Rockich makes it look easy, man. Or Jan really is just done. That's my guess and my belief. The one big thing.

that has me questioning is Jan is 81, has an 81% win rate when he is an underdog. That is enormously high. That's a nice stat. That is a nice stat right there. It is enormously high and very sweaty considering this. But again, I just, I like all the rest of it. And I think this is just Alexander Rockich's time. Jan had his.

And I don't have the stats here, but I remember looking this up years ago. champions who lose their title, their fights that follow that, it is overwhelmingly likely that they lose again. I remember looking this up years ago, and so I don't remember exactly what the number is, but for whatever reason, once you drop the belt,

you're probably on the way out for your career is more likely than not, especially at, what's, Jan, 39? I'm going to take the younger, faster, faster guy for sure. Yeah, 39, and that like, fight it was he looked bad like there's no way of sands or butts about it he looked bad i you know it was kind of from from the from the opening bell it was like wow we probably aren't going to

cash this bet here it does not look good and then he got put out by glover uh in the second round i'm not going to lie since i don't have a fighter in this one i'm cheering for yon i like yon sure you know i like him as a personality i'm hoping he's not done i hope he makes another run at the belt you know a light heavyweight division some of these older guys can get the belt but we'll see. I think it's going to be exciting fight. It's obviously, it's the fight I'm looking forward to most on this card far and away. I guess that's probably the case for me. I'm not 100% certain, but what I will say, this also has the benefit of being one of those bets where I want to cash it. If I don't cash it, a little part of me will be okay with it just because,

like you, who doesn't love Yanni Blako? Man, the legendary Polish power is the greatest rebrand in the history of this sport as far as I'm concerned. I also saw a start a stat the legendary Polish power he only wins by knockout in like 22% of his wins yeah it's like it's the best rebrand he he doesn't actually have it but he knocked out like luke rock hold and was like yeah nobody's ever done that before except everyone who can throw a left hook all right well we'll see what happens in the main event let's keep it rolling on to the co-main or as we like to say the second to the last fight of the night it is another light heavyweight bow ryan span going up against Zion Kuta Laba.

Again, I don't know what's going on with me these last two weeks. I don't have a fighter play in this one. I have a total play. And it's also a parlay piece, so it's really not that exciting. But I will be taking this one to not go the distance at minus 425. I parlayed it up with the over one and a half in the main event. So I got a nice two-fight parlay to finish the evening. I mean, Ryan Span, he's just the definition of killer be killed of late.

10 of his last 13 fights have ended in first round. Like, that's just a ridiculous stat, and he's seven and three in those. So either winning by finish or losing by finish. Kutalaba, not nearly as much. Killer be killed, a span, but he's no stranger to a finish either. I mean, his last two went to a decision, but before that, six straight fights ended and finishes. He went three and three in those.

Five of them ended in the first round. Just watching these guys going back to the tape, they're both aggressive. They both have finishing capabilities. I will be surprised if this one goes all 15 minutes. Yeah, I think that that's a pretty good bet. I don't have action at the moment, and I am desperately trying to not make a stupid bet on Ryan Span. And I need you- Oh, Span would be the side if you were going to play this.

No, I need you to talk me out of it because I recognize, because this is like last week, when you tried to talk me out, you didn't so much so, but you tried to talk me how to put my money on Danny Howe Chocolate Roberts, because why would you put your money on Danny Howe-Haw Chocolate Roberts? because why would you put your money on dating hot chocolate Roberts? And it's exactly the same thing with Ryan Span here. Because in my head, my head is saying, Ryan Span is an enormous human being. How he makes 205 is unbelievable. And Yon Kutalab is not a small man, but he's going to be massively outsized.

And Span is a pretty good wrestler. And Kutalaba kind of throws the kitchen sink in round one and then sort of falls off a cliff if he can't. And all of that makes me think, well, Kutalaba tries to wrestle. He's going to gas. and then Span is just going to find the big shot to finish it. But I just, I can't talk myself out of it and I know that I should.

So tell me why I should. Make me be smart, Connor. I need you to do, do me a solid. Here's what I'm going to do for you. Here's what I'm going to do for you. If you lose a Ryan Span bet, it's going to come by finish in my opinion. And it's going to be demoralizing, watching Ryan Span get finished, losing your money while he's at it.

And on top of that, it could be a first round finish. you could watch two and a half, three minutes of this fight, and your money could be gone just like that. It's totally possible. Again, Kudalab is going to come out. He's going to throw hands. And it's not like Ryan Span has the world's greatest chin, but I cannot talk myself out of just how big he is

and wanting to bet that size and athletic ability are a cheat code in this sport. And so, like I said, I haven't made the bet yet. But if it keeps moving, I'm going to make a bad decision. And so you listeners, don't make the bad decision with me. It's a bad decision. Never invest your money in Ryan Span. Listen, if you're just basing it off of size and athletic ability, I think Michael Venham Page is a big underdog in the Bellator card this weekend,

and he's got a massive size. He's a huge underdog, but no, Logan Storley's going to kill him. He's just going to wrestle him for 25 minutes. It's the best. Yeah, so I wouldn't have a great time if I put money on Ryan Span. Now if he knocks Kutalaba out, I mean, it'd be really cool. You know, he's got the ass on his chest. But, you know, I, that's, we're going to figure it out.

One day, I'll make better choices. It's probably not going to be this weekend, but for now I have made a good choice. Let's be honest, this is a weekend where it's, it's pretty easy to, uh, to make poor choices. This, this is a card where things can get ugly fast. For sure. I think actually kind of holistically, most. of the lines on this card are pretty well made. Like as I was doing the study and the research was like, man, I can't.

There were some of these fights where I felt like I should be able to find some action that I wanted. Something the fight appealed to me, but the odds just sort of look correct to me. So this might be one of those weekends where at the end of it, I haven't made that many plays. And then I'm going to be incredibly sad about the plays I didn't make because I got a little too conservative. because it's really tough. It's a really tough weekend. No doubt. With Instacard, you get groceries that over-deliver,

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It's a Bannamway bout. Luis Smoka going up against Davy Grant. I think this one is going to be one of the most exciting one on the card. I think the fireworks are going to come out in this one. I actually have a play on a fighter and on a total in this one. So it's about as sweaty as it gets, and then there's that obvious outcome where you lose both. and you get a double loss, which is what we're trying to avoid. For me, I mean, Davey Grant, he's fireworks, dude.

He's exciting to watch. His last two fights, Marlon Vera and Adrian Yanez. I mean, both fight of the night bonuses. And then he got two performance bonuses before that when he knocked out Jonathan Martinez and Martin Day. And I think that's what's going to happen here. I think he's probably going to knock out Luis Smokka. Smokker's three and three since returning to the UFC. All three losses by finish.

Actually, all three wins, too, are also by finish. so we haven't seen him go to the scorecard since returning to the UFC. And we just saw how quickly Vince Morales just put his lights out last time out. That was Morales' first knockout in over three years. It's not like he's some K.O. artist. Grant, I think he holds a lot of power in his hands for a bantamweight. He's got good boxing. The Adrian Yanez match was fantastic.

And I think he's going to get it done here. I think he's going to get it done by knockout. So I had him to a parlay at minus 270. And then I took a single on the under two and a half at minus 155. If he wins, I think it's going to be my knockout. and if he doesn't win, I think more likely than not, he's probably going to get submitted by Luis Smolka. Smokka's got like seven submission wins on his resume.

Davy Grant, four losses, four of his six losses have come by submission. All of his losses in the UFC have come by submissions, and Smokka's pretty slick on the ground. So I think no matter how this fight ends, I don't see it going to distance. I didn't even look at the over-under, but I really like the under two and a half bet that you've got there. I think that is very, very solid. action on here. I have a baby bet and it is against you. My good sir. I, I kind of want to be

invested in Lewis Smoker here. The number is just not right. But you mentioned it. Louis Smoker by sub is plus 650. That's about a 13% win prob. And I think that number has value because I do think that if Smoker gets it done, and I think he can't get it done, frankly. I think he's going to get something in transition, get a takedown, find the neck. You noted it. I mean, Grant, I think, like, 80% of Grant's losses have come by submission. Smolka is pretty slick down there. He's not the world's greatest grappler, but he's got some craft to him.

And like you said, Smolka, since his return to the UFC, he has been all finishes, win or lose all finishes. And so I like Davy Grant to win probably, you know, but he's only been the favorite twice in his career. He's one in one in those two bouts. So, you know, that's, we don't have a ton there. And I just, I like an opportunity for Louis Smolka to get a little grimy with it, find, find some body locks, figure out some tie-ups. And maybe he can find a, find a way to get a tap. So, again, just a baby bet, just a quarter unit. but I think Smokov by sub at plus 650 is a very interesting bet for me.

I don't think that's a terrible one, man. I mean, I said it before you even mentioned anything that I think if Smokal wins, it's probably going to be by this one hitting the ground and him throwing something up and getting Davey Grant out of there. So I don't think that's terrible. I think regardless, I think it's going to be exciting, and I don't see it going the distance. What's Grant by K.O.?

I want to say him inside the distance is minus 120, plus 105 at Caesars currently. If you want to take Grant by K.O. Grant by K.O. Plus 135 is what I'm looking at right now. Yeah, I'm seeing the same. Maybe I might get on that and just do a little double-ended action. Because I do think that is the most likely outcome in the fight for sure. As a David Grant, just finds a way, put a hands on him.

He's a much more powerful guy. Decent-sized band-in-weight, smoke, obviously. It was a flyweight for a while. And, you know, I think that there's a lot. also a bet I could be interested in. All right, well, there it is. Let's keep it rolling on the main card. Women's flyweight belt coming up next.

Caitlin Chukagian, 17 and 4 going up against Amanda Hebos. Is this the third fight you're the most excited about on this card? I guess. Everybody gets excited to watch Caitlin Chukagian fight. Come on. I mean, the decision machine. And that's exactly where I'm heading on this one. It's the gift that keeps on giving is playing overs in Caitlin Chukagian fights.

and I scooped up the over at minus 210 over two and a half. I mean, this is going to be her 15th UFC fight, and she has zero finishes. Yes, she's been finished before, but herself, I just don't see her getting a finish. And when I first saw this line come out, I don't know about you, my knee-jerk reaction was He-Bus, and then looking into it more,

I forgot that He-Bus, straw weight, moving up to flyweight, very undersized going against, Kaylin Chukagin, the UFC site has it listed as 5-9 versus 5-4, 2-inch reach advantage as well for Chukagian. There's a world where Chukagian just bullies her with her size, outpoints her, and wins a decision like she does against almost everybody. Yeah, man, I have exactly the same read as you because my, like you said, my initial reaction

when I saw was, ooh, he boss is a little frisky there. It was some plus money action. And I have a pretty good deal of respect for Caitlin Chikagian as a fighter. But I really like Amanda Hebas. And so I was like, yeah, that's something. And then when I watched the tape, it's like, oh, it's probably not. I mean, if Hebas can score takedowns and keep Chukagian down. But Chichagia is pretty good at defending takedowns, pretty good at getting back up.

And the size difference is going to make that even more difficult for He boss, especially because Hebas is going to have difficulty navigating that range. Um, we saw her have a little bit of those struggles with Marina Rodriguez. Um, obviously they are, Hadriguez and Chikagan are very different fighters. Um, am I, am I correct? Am I doing that correct? What? They have fought, right?

Who? Amanda Hebas. Amanda Hebas and Marina Rodriguez. Yes. And Marina Rodriguez knocked out. Yeah. Just making sure I wasn't totally misremembering this. Um, I watched a lot of tape today. So it's, you can get lost, man.

If you're watching too much of it. Um, but yeah, I, uh, like I said, I have very much the same read. Uh, Chikagian has 75% win rate as a favorite. And, uh, that's, that's a really confident number. The interesting thing there, Hebas has been an underdog twice in her career and has cash billed tickets. So, uh, if she can go three for three, then that's something to start looking at. But I'm with you. I don't have the over here. I instead have fight goes to decision prop at minus two 20. We're basically talking tomato tomato But yeah I think this is going to go I've got that prop is in a parley We will talk about in a little bit It's a parley piece

Just because it's at minus 220 But I think you can take it straight fine And I also have prop money on Chugagia And by decision at plus 120 Because You said it She doesn't finish people I have no idea why her to win straight

Is minus 170 And by decision is plus money, it should just be like minus 150. So I'm taking the extra bit of value. I think Chiquagan has at least a 50% chance to win this fight. And if she does, it's going to be to the card. So give me both of those bets. I mean, she's been fighting two or three times a year.

Sometimes even in 2020, she fought four times. And she has zero finishes since 2016. Yeah. Like she is an active fighter and she just gets no finishes. So it's the gift that keeps on giving, taking the overs in her fights. Also, let's just be clear. No finish this in 2016 is an impressive stat. She only has three in her whole career.

And we're talking about, you know, coming up, like in the game when you're playing a bunch of people who aren't good. She only has three of them. She's just not somebody who finishes people. And so, yeah. And weirdly two of them are by knees. She's got a couple knee finishes and an arm bar. Yeah, that's just who she is. Tremendous fighter, she just isn't a finisher.

And I have no idea why her line to win a decision is plus money. It makes zero sense given the- There's a chance that I hop on that with you. I was on it against Jennifer Maya. It's fairly stress-free from the standpoint of it going to the decision or not. And then you just got to hope that she wins. I might jump on that with you as well. the fact that it's sitting at plus money.

Eventually we're going to get burnt. She's going to slip on a banana peel or she's going to, you know, meme chaos someone like Chandler did Ferguson and just end all the claims. But hopefully that day is not Saturday, May 14th, 2022. That's the thing, though. If you just bet it forever, sure, one time we'll take the L, but the rest of them are more than going to make up for that one time you take the loss. Yeah.

So we're riding that one together. hopefully all the way to a decision. That's a definite like round two, four minutes left. You hit the bathroom, you know, try and just forget anything that's going on,

come back. Oh, Chikian's up two rounds to know? That's the thing, though. I don't even think you have to hit a bathroom with it. Chikin is, if she's going to win, we're going to know really early

because Hebas is just not going to be able to get anything going. And it's like, all right, bank it. She won the first round. This fight's done. Because she's not going to finish her.

So it's just like, all right, cool we're good let's go outside you know take a take a nice walk get ready for for the the ryan span sweat yeah i uh i definitely took a bathroom break during chaise on dumont last week easy's bet of the card that over one and a half he gave me that was a nice parley piece got a drink came back i was like oh i had it we're we're still moving on that one all right let's keep it moving on this fight card we're still in the main card lightweight bout frank camacho going up against manwell torres this one

right now you can get Manuel Torres at minus 130 Camacho at plus 110. So we got the Dana White Contender Series debut ton as the favorite in this one, Camacho, he's making his return after almost two years off, coming back from getting ca-oed in 41 seconds by Justin James. He's actually been finished in his last three losses besides the point here, but he's taken on Manuel Torres, who rarely, if ever, sees the scorecards. You're taking a fighter in this one? you're taking a side, a total, anything here?

I wouldn't touch this fight with a 10-foot pole, man. Frank Camacho is Frank Camacho. The dude hasn't won a fight. Like, he hasn't fought in two years. He hasn't won in over three. And Manuel Torres, I won hard to find tape on him because he doesn't have a ton of it out there. And what we've seen is not super instructive.

The contender series win over Cold in England. Look, I'm not here to denigrate the man. He shoved his finger in his eye, and then when the ref didn't stop it on the high poke, he just clobbered him. And that's fair, because that's the ref's job to intervene, but I can't take a lot from him winning the fight by poking a dude in the eye and then attacking a man who was clearly not trying to fight him as a result. So I don't have any kind of a read on what Manuel Torres is about. I think, you know, if I'm just a total guess is that he's going to finish Frank Camacho because Frank Camacho is not that great and has been getting finished a lot, but that is entirely a guess.

Wouldn't touch this with my money. If you, it was your money and not my money, I wouldn't bet it. I'm actually like in lockstep with you in terms of picking a fighter. First, the second I saw it, I was like, oh, my Ben Manuel Torres there. I mean, Camacho has been struggling earlier. But then I did what you did. I watched some tape and I was like, there's just really not enough to prove to me

that I should be placing a wager on Manuel Torres here. And then you also just look at the experience differences between these guys. Camacho, he's losing, but he's fighting some pretty good guys. Drew Dover, Jingling Lee, Jeff Neal, Benio Darius. He's fought some of the better guys in this division. Manuel Torres, just not enough on him.

I'm with you. I'm not touching this fight. From a fighter standpoint, but shocker, I don't know what's going on. I got the prop plague here. I got the prop bug. I'm just betting all these props. I do like the under two and a half. Torres, like I said, he almost never goes to the scorecards, 13 to 14 in his career.

It's only been one time that he's made it to the scorecards. Hardly ever leaves the first round. Like, he just gets it going as soon as the fight starts. He's got finishing abilities. He's also been finished twice. Camacho, last three fights. He has been finished in. last three losses, I mean, he's been finished in.

But he's also got decent finishing capabilities as well. 19 of his 22 pro wins are coming by finish. If you combine these guys two records, 39 of their combined 45 professional fights have not gone the distance. I'll take my chances with that number at minus 175. Well, that's a good step. I'll play that and hopefully someone gets finished there. Like I think it's entirely possible

But again, I just, I do not know, I know plenty about Frank Camacho I don't know enough about Manuel Torres other than he's a well-built young man He looks like he works out and that's about all I can glean from the limited tape I've been able to see you That's a good way to put it. Yeah, so a little bit of hope on this one You know, eventually the when it when all you have his first round finishes on your card you get that decision. Hopefully it doesn't come here, though. Let's keep it rolling.

The final fight of the main card. It is a flyweight bout. Jake Hadley going up against Alan Nassimento. Jake Hattley currently at minus 210, Nassimento, a plus 175. Now with this one, similar to the last one with you, I do not have a play at all on this one. Jake Hadley, kind of what I can take away from. He's an exciting dude coming off the contender series. Actually, his last four fights.

Bellator, Cage Warriors, Dana White Contender Series, and now he's jumping into the UFC. So he's got a little bit of every promotion under his belt lately. Half his pro wins are by rear naked choke. He's got a couple go-go plattas as an amateur. He's got a pretty good ground game, it seems like, but I just can't lay him at minus 200 or more. He's debuting off the contender series. Nassimento, he's pretty slick on the ground himself. He's never been finished.

I could just see this fight going either way, so I'll be staying. away from it. And again, we are in lockstep. I think I briefly did consider Hadley. I did too. Just because I think he is, you can do worse if you're looking for a parley piece in him, but I told you last week and it's a rule I live by. I really don't like betting on fighters who haven't made their UFC debut yet or a large promotion, big kind of fight. Because, Hadley has that championship experience in Cage Warriors, it gives me a little more confidence that he is not going to be overwhelmed by the moment. And based on kind of what I've seen, I would pick him to win.

But laying juice on him is still really questionable because he is shown weaknesses too, you know. He has not breezed through everybody he has fought in his professional career. The Cage Warrior title fight against Luke Shanks, he had some moments of, of, of, you know, getting buzzed or whatever in there. And that just, it gives me enough pause to say, there are better places to put my money. I don't have to get something down on every fight, even though that is an impulse, man.

I love to put bets on every freaking fight. I'm staying away. But I think this is going to be a great scrap. Oh, for sure. Nassimento has pretty good size for the division as well. so they're going to be teeing it up on the feet. And then if Hadley goes to that grappling, tries to take the fight down,

I'll be really interested to see his top control versus Nassimito's kind of guard play. He's very active off his back. Yeah, man. It's going to be a super interesting fight, but I'm in agreeance with everything that you say. This is one of those weeks where you kind of have to, you have to put your hand over the trigger

and be like, I don't have to make a bet on everything here. You know, you get that feeling. You know, you're down in your gut when you're really like a bet. When you're ready to go to the book, place the bet, I have not felt that feeling, you know, as much as I did last week as opposed to this week. Some of these, you know, I just don't want to force anything. For sure. And then now, see, the thing is some of those things where I do have that feeling, because I honestly don't have that feeling for just about any fight on the main card outside of maybe the Chukagian one because once I got into that, felt really good. but there's some of these fights in the undercard I feel way better about.

And frankly, I'm surprised that they are undercard fights as opposed to main card fights because we're talking about some pretty well-established names here. And so with that, I think we should just roll it on through to a prelim action because I think you have three different bets down or three fights with action on of the five in the undercard. I've got a few, and I maybe will have one extra fight to talk about, so we can just keep things moving. It's the Nissan Black Friday event where you can... Wait, wait.

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Conditions apply. I love this. Let's roll right under the prelims, our five-fight prelim. We just finished up with our six-fight main car. First one up. It is a women's flyway bout. Vivienne Arojo going up against Andrea Lee. This is pretty much a coin flip. Andrew Lille minus 110.

Arojo minus 110. At pretty much every book across the board right now. you know it's kind of a coin flip fight as dictated by the odds but do you have a side i have a side oh i have a side oh man i love i'm nervous to find out what you have i'm excited because getting a side on a coin flip fight that is it could be anything last week we we pull it was a wolf pack last week uh what with and a winning wolf pack important to remind everybody the wolf pack one-in-one plus money I was going to say shout out to Randy Brown. Shout out to Alex Polizzi.

He had nothing for Yoel Romero, but we move. We're not going to talk about Alex Polizzi. I mean, he had nothing. He had nothing. That was 15 minutes. Actually, 14 minutes and 59 seconds of domination. Shout out to you if you had a YOL inside the distance. I'm very sorry if you had you all by decision.

Third round Romero. You just, that man is too dangerous when he gets to the third round. All right. Well, let's do it. I'm favoring Andrea Lee here. Oh, we are opposed. Let's go. Let's go.

I'll let you kick it off. Okay. Look, I initially when I looked at this fight, my knee jerk reaction was Andrew Lee. She's coming off some, I mean, frankly, the best performances of her career thus far. She looked so, so solid against Cynthia Calvillo. I mean, also against Antonia Shivchenko. I have a lot. Shevchenko is chef chenko.

She's got a better name than she is a fighter if we're being honest about Antonina. But the Calvio fight, Andrea Lee looked so good. And I was like, man, she might be ascending. Maybe she is finally coming into her own. She's going to take advantage of all the promise that she has.

But then I dug into the tape. And I got to say, I have some concerns with the Rougeau. I see why the line is as close Today is she's 35, which is always a big question. But if you look at her career, I mean, she lost to Jessica I and Caitlin Chikagian. Those are the two losses. Jessica I is a, that loss means something different depending on who you are and certainly of the moment.

Because Jessica I fought for a title. Don't forget that. She did the thing where she maybe wasn't great, but got the wins necessary. And Caitlin Chiguan, we talked about her already. She is the third best flyweight in the world, you know, behind Jessica Androge, who's now strawweight again, and the goat, Valentina Shivchenko. So those are very explainable losses. And when I looked at this tape, I think Rujo is the more powerful striker. And I think she's going to be a little bit faster.

I think Lee has the volume. She has such a high work rate, and that's great. But I think that the big difference. difference maker for me is the grappling of a rujo. B. Gigi black belt. Andrea Lee is not a bad defender of takedowns and we'll shoot some herself, but I mostly think Lee's going to want to keep this on the feet, use that volume. I think Arrucho can be competitive there, especially with her power. And then I think she is going to be able to find opportunities to get this fight to the floor, keep entry lead down, and probably take a decision. So that's

why I'm betting Vivian Arrucho. I got her at minus 105. So I guess that would count. No, never mind because I'm going against you. I was going to say, I guess we're going back, would you. It would. All right, so yeah. But for you. The grappling is my biggest concern here for Andrea Lee.

I mean, no doubt. We've seen her get taken down. I mean, I watched the Roxanne Mona Ferry fight. Not a great performance there by my girl, KGB in that one. If Aradio gets it done, that's how she's going to get it done by being able to take it to the ground. Personally, in my opinion, I think that Andrea Lee, while she is not a as athletic as Arojo. I think she does have a striking advantage.

I think she has a volume advantage. I think she also has a defensive advantage when it comes to the striking department. She may not be as powerful as Arojo. One of the things that I am really banking on, you mentioned it, going to a decision. I think it's going to go to a decision. I parlayed up over one and a half at minus 500 or minus 425. I can get into that in a second. Arojo's gas tank is very sketchy as it gets later into the fight.

We have seen her struggle in the later rounds. and in the third round specifically, I went back. She has a negative 45 striking differential in third rounds in her UFC career. She has two for seven on takedowns in the two that she landed. We're against Roxanne Mardi Farre other than that. She is 0.45. She's going against someone in the lead, decent cardio. We've seen her have success in the later rounds.

In my opinion, I think, you know, I probably, if I was smart enough, I probably would wait till after the first round. I think Erosho takes the first round. then I would live bet because I think you're dead on live bet Andrea Lee. I think I may double down with Andrea Lee here. I can't believe I'm actually saying that I'm going to double down on KJB after the first round. I think Erojo takes the first round and then as the second round goes on, Andrea Lee begins to take over.

Andrea Lee wins the third round. We get a nice disgusting split decision. I may even bet that too. I may even bet the winner comes by split. decision. Split decision is I couldn't find the odds up for that yet, but I think that that could be a really, really tasty line also. That might be our value play.

And then just real quickly, the over one and a half, I parlayed that up. UFC career combined 14 UFC fights for both of them. They have never gone under one and a half. I don't see them going under one and a half here. There's almost no chance. So I think that's great. This is exciting because I'm going to present a bet for you. I'm going to gift you a bet because I can't make it because I almost didn't pick Vivian

Urugio just because I want to make this bet because I think it's funny, not necessarily because I think it's the best bet in the world. But Andre Lee did this really fun, does this really fun thing where she kiosz every time she strikes. So she's just yelling at Vivian Arrucho, which actually probably does benefit her towards the split decision. Judges seem to really respond to people yelling. And you know who else Kiyahs when they fight?

Kailen Chukagian. Another woman. You can do a Kiyah Parley of Kailchakian and Andrea Lee. And you can get that, that beautiful parley. Those two together get you at plus 197 for the Kia Parlet. Maybe I can put enough on it that I can go by a Kia with my Kia Parlet. I like that. I like that idea there.

Yeah. What is it about the judges getting prepared? by people screaming while they fight? I don't know, but they definitely do. And literally when I was taking notes, I was like, oh, that's a point in Tralee's favor. And that's when I realized, like, actually, Chukagin does this too. Can we make a parlay of the two of them for the gimmick?

But, so I'm gifting that to you. I won't bet it because I am stupidly betting against the fun of the Kia parlay. But you may have it, sir. And good fortune with you. bet it but I think I will cheer it on I just I don't know do I want to put my money on that do I want to throw like maybe I'll throw like 10 shekels

down you know nothing a couple bones just just a little baby van on it see if I need some free Chipotle out of uh out of uh out of the kia parley I mean I like that I like that I mean I think it goes to the decision it's it's gonna be nasty when it gets there

I know that much uh let's keep an eye out for winner comes by split decision I think that is a tasty, tasty play there. That's, that's going to, the more I'm thinking about that, that's going to the No Bet's Bar at Hall of Fame, just like Joe Loz on round one. What a bet that was?

Oh, yeah. Best bet we've ever made. And hey, we can still get it. Who knows? Because that fight did just get rebooked for Austin, June 18th. I like the idea in my head, though, that Vegas got scared. They knew. Oh, they did.

And we'll know that for sure when that line comes out in June. And they're like, oh, now it's plus 300. It was dropping. I will also say this, dude, I'm a little disappointing. We're both Georgia guys here. You're going against an Atlanta native in Andrea Lee. Yep, sure am. I mean, Atlanta, Texas, not the same thing.

Atlanta regardless, man, come on. I can't believe that. I thought I thought we had to stand up for our Atlanta natives. But, all right, we're going against each other. That's going to be interesting to see. I'm sure it won't be. Is that the first time? I might be the first time.

We need something for this like Wolfpack. Yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, something instead of a wolfpack. We go head to head. This is going to be fun to keep track of as we go along. Let's keep it going with this one. Another pre-lim fight, flyway bout. Vyrna, Jandiroba, going up against Angela Hill. Currently, you can get this one at Jandiroba minus 165,

Angela Hill, plus 145. So I actually do not have a bet in this one. I am very tempted for this. I don't know if you are, if you've ever placed this before, it's only on bet online sports book, not plugging them, but they're the only ones that offer it, the points,

plus three and a half, minus three and a half. I love points bets. I think they're really fun and make a ton of sense, especially for people who, you know, love football and are really used to getting points spreads. I think they're great bets.

So as like a quick explanation, if you're a listener that isn't aware, of it, you know, you're going to get plus three and a half minus three and a half in a three-and-a-half in a three-and-a-half in a five-round fight. What you do at the end is add up all of the judge's scorecards, and then obviously it works like a spread in football or basketball or anything like that. So, you know, a three-round fight. Let's say I take Angela Hill at plus three and a half in this one. She loses 3027, 28, 29, 28-29. She loses. You add all those up. She loses by five. That would not cover. I would lose that. If she loses 29-28s across the board, though, that's losing by three points. I would cover in that situation. Just a short explanation. So I haven't played it.

I'm looking at it. Angela Hill, plus three and a half, is currently sitting at minus 125 right now. She is notorious for having close fights. She's the queen of losing split decisions. She would have covered plus three and a half in nine of her last 10 fights, 13 of her last 15 fights. It's not like Janderobes, some world be. her. You know, she's three and three since joining the UFC. My main concern, though, and that's what's kept me off of it to this point. Janderoba, those three wins in the UFC are all by finish,

and if Angela Hill gets finished, which she has before, especially by submission, which Jandhiroba specializes in, it would shock me up as a loser. So that's what's keeping me off the edge here. Oh, I think you should feel confident in that bet. I think it's a very solid bet. I'm placing it right now live on the show it's getting placed i think that's a great bet because i mean yeah angela hill has been finished before but it's not a thing that happens all that often um and i i don't have a huge amount of confidence in this bet so uh take that with the grain of salt but i do have action here and i am backing angela hill i'm taking angela hill by decision at plus 220 uh just because i think if hill wins she's she's not a huge finish

And so I think instead of getting her at plus 145, which is about a 40, 41% win probability, I don't love, I mean, I think that those odds are okay, but I think you can just juice that up to plus 220 by decision. And that's a much better line, much better value there. Certainly have concerns. The biggest one being what you already mentioned, Angela Hill has a knack for losing questionable split decisions. but to some extent that's why I'm backing her here.

I think talked about it a lot before. I think Hill is one of those fighters who, if she got some better scorecards, some more deserve scorecards in some situations, we would think of her very, very differently than we do. And, you know, sometimes that eventually the gods are going to even things out and things are going to come up her way one time. And I think that this is a fight that just really plays to her style.

You know, Janjaoba is, I think, outmatched on the feet. She is very wild there a lot. And I think Hill can kind of take advantage of that. The question being Janjaoba, obviously, tremendous grappler. But Hill is pretty good at defending takedowns. And so I'm back in the underdog here. But we talked about it on a separate fight. I think this is another fight where wins by split decision,

figure out the line on that because Angela Hill loses a lot of split decisions. And so there's just very much an opportunity for that bet here as well. Yeah, I'm in completely agreeance with you. As long as she doesn't get finished, I think she can she can definitely take a round, if not the fight off of Janorba. I mean, if you look at it, she's essentially fought her entire career. Like I know she's 1311, but she's essentially fought her entire career in the UFC, whereas Janderova, yeah, she's 17 and 3, but she's only six fights in to her UFC career. Yeah.

And look, and Hill has fought everybody. She has fought the very best people in the sport. Claudia Gidea, Michelle Orson, Tisha Torres, Janjao Nan. Like, these are all top shelf fighters. And she, you know, she lost all of those fights technically. But she absolutely beat Amanda Limos. That's what I thought, too. Her last fight.

She 100% should have won that fight. I want to say, like, Limos was like minus 400. Yeah, she was a huge favorite. I thought she should have beat Michelle Waterson. You know, the Claudia Gedelia fight, I don't remember exactly how I scored it, but I feel like I had her

winning that too. Like, Hill has gotten a raw deal a lot of ways. And so I always look up kind of favorites versus underdogs and their win rates just as a bit of context to make me see if I'm missing something. And I talked about on a few of these other bets earlier. For this one, Hill has a really

poor, like bad win rate as an underdog. It's 12.5%. It's really low. Wow. That's terrible. It's super low and that would normally make me want to stay away from her. But if you actually factor in for the fights that she probably should have won, that number jumps up a tremendous

amount. And so I feel like I'm back in her. I believe in Angela Hill. That has cost me money a lot historically, but I'm hoping the gods, even it all out and we get paid off this weekend. All right. So we're both supporting Angela Hill in this situation. Hopefully it does work out for us. Let's keep it going.

I did just place that bet, by the way, so now I'm locked into that. Love it. Love riding Angela Hill on some sweaty decisions. Let's say that's sweaty palms, baby. All right, we got another prelim. I believe this is the curtain jerker. It's a middleweight bout. Nick Maximoff taking on Andre Petroski. And right now you can get Maximov for minus 380. Petrosky coming back at plus 290. So I don't really have much an opinion on this one. I just wanted to kind of talk about it with you a little bit. Nick McMamov has like, he's kind of become a little bit of my arch nemesis. I don't have like any hatred towards any fighters specifically, but I bet Cody Brundage back in September and I also bet Puneasoriano.

Kind of heavy on Punezoriano too. And, you know, he kind of just laid his way to victories in both of them. Like 57 takedowns against Punozori. Yeah, 57 take-towns and, you know, Puna just couldn't get up. It's such a frustrating way to lose a bet, too, because it's like, oh, man, it's, it's frustrating. So, yeah, Maximov, and then he comes on the MMA hour the next day, and I was like, oh, gosh, this guy, he's just really, he's just been really killing me. I think, I know he's Aiden O, he's coming out of Nick Diaz Academy, everything like that. I think there's going to be an opportunity to fade him at some point.

I just don't really think this is the spot here. I see some people jumping on Petroski. I'm not too confident in that, especially after his last fight. I know he won by finish, but the opponent was miserable. And I honestly, I really toyed with the idea of adding him to a parlay at minus 400 just to really see if I could cement this guy as like my rival. Because if he were to blow a parlay, yeah, bust the parlay at minus 400. I mean, I would have to just like go full bore hate on this guy. I stayed away from everything, but seeing Nick Maximov at minus 400 is a crazy day to me.

I can't argue with a lot of what you're saying, but I don't have any personal issues with him or professional issues with him. I've never been on or against him. But I'm changing that this weekend because I am putting him in a parlay. Let's go. Look, you said it. Andre Petroski has fought a cavalcade of bad people. Just people who aren't very good. And the good people that he's fought have all beaten him.

This is a dude who got Ninja Toked by freaking Brian Battle on Tuff. Is that the coolest finish? Is that the coolest possible name for a finish? The coolest name, certainly. I don't think it's the coolest finish. I have a special love in my heart for Peruvian neckties. It's also a good name. It's also a very good name.

But Ninja Toke is the coolest name, I think, for sure. But look, for whatever. the foibles, and there are certainly some that Nick Maximov has, this man can grapple his ass off. No doubt. This man can score takedowns, talking about a guy who has wealth of experience and submission underground. And even if he can't absolutely hustle Petroski on the floor, which I actually think he can, he can at the minimum, just plan him on the floor and sit on him the same way he did to Punayal Soriano. So, look, you never, I never feel the most confident about having money on the curtain jerker just because the curtain jerker, what it means, what it signifies.

But in this instance, I've, I got them at minus 380. I have that as a parley piece with the aforementioned Chukagan, Hebas goes to decision prop. So gets it down to about minus 120 for those two. And I think that that's a, that's a fine wager. And so that's why I'm on it. Yeah, I mean, you're probably going to get to enjoy him laying on Andre Petroski for eight minutes of the 15 minutes of the fight as he grinds his way to probably a 30 to 27 decision. And that's that's the other key thing. I am getting bet value here because otherwise I would probably hate this fight and or not want to watch it.

Be like, ah, it's the first one. It's already a late start time. Let me just finish cooking dinner. I won't bother. But now put a little money down on it. Now I have incentive to tune in and be like, hey, let's see what's going on with Nick Maximoff. I'm nervously going. Wow.

I'm just now learning that this card starts at 7.30 on Saturday. 7.30? Sure does. It's a late one. Which is great that it only has 11 fights because if this was a 15 fighter and they were doing the big kickback time, it would be a real tough Saturday evening, but instead 11 fights, worse things have happened.

Yeah, worse things have happened. That's a mental blow to me right now. I'm really going through that. I'm used to the, I love the four o'clock. I love the four o'clock prelim starts for like a card like this. All right. Well, we have to talk about one more fight because there I did a dumb thing, Connor,

and I didn't, you know, previously, earlier in the show with Ryan Spann, I intentionally didn't make the bet so you could talk me in or out of making the bet because I was being smarter. I was not smart for a prelim fight featuring one's misters, Michael Johnson, and Alon Patricke.

Okay, yeah. One, we just need to talk about this fight anyway because these are two pretty well-known commodities. Michael Johnson at one point was, you know, a top 10 lightweight or whatever in the world. But I'm very, very dumb. and I decided that I would put a little bit of a wager on Mr. Alon Patric. I have a sub-bet for him, a prop bet for Patric by sub at plus 500.

Look, Al-Patrike is not the world's greatest fighter, but frankly neither is Michael Johnson. Johnson, nine of his career losses have come by submission. I like that. Alon Patricke is a very solid wrestler. His issues are he is a crazy person and doesn't strike with anything resembling technique, but sort of just does everything all at once and hope something lands. And then he'll shoot takedowns.

He's a really good wrestler. He's a really good grappler. He will gas himself out. So if this bet doesn't cash in the first eight minutes, it is probably dead in the water. I'll say it probably dead in the water. But look, Michael Johnson got out worked by 40-year-old Clay Gwita recently. just taking him down over and over again. I sort of wanted to bet Patric just straight as an underdog, but he's only plus 130.

And that's a 44% win prob, and that's not really where I wanted to be. But at sub at plus 500, which I think if Patric wins is probably the most likely outcome for him, is to find a way to plant Michael Johnson, sneak to the back and get a rear naked. So I put a little bit, just a little bit on Patric by submission at plus 500. I mean, Michael Johnson is three and nine in his last 12 fights. It's very true. Also, neither man, another big question mark to betting this fight in general is neither man has won since 2018. Artem Lobov.

He beat Artem Lobov. Yeah, well, the goat, he beat the goat. I mean, that's a great one. Also, the funniest thing is, in the middle of all this red on Michael Johnson's record, There's a nice green first round knockout of title challenger, Dustin Porriere. One time interim champion, Dustin Poirier. Michael Johnson has had, this is the man who beat Tony Ferguson with like before Tony started the run.

Michael Johnson was the guy who beat him. Like his highs are extremely high, but his lows are very, very low. And he hasn't had a high in a really long time, you know. split decision against Andre Feely. He did the thing where he cut the featherweight. His last four in a row, he's lost. They do have a common opponent in Stevie Ray, which, you know, very different times of their professional careers.

But Patricke won a unanimous decision over Stevie Ray, and Michael Johnson lost to Stevie Ray in this recent run. So there's a lot of things also factoring in. Patricke is 40% win rate as an underdog. and, you know, that's pretty tasty, especially, especially, Connor. When Michael Johnson's win rate is a favorite, take a guess. What do you think Michael Johnson's win rate is a favorite is? He's got 36 pro fights.

I'm going to say... Not all of those have bets. Obviously, yeah, yeah. Have odds on them, obviously. I'm going to say 19% win rate is a favorite. Wow, you went very low. It's 28. which is still an incredibly low number to be winning as the betting favorite.

And so kind of with that, I decided to take an action at it. I actually don't like that. I don't dislike that at all, dude. You talk about a stupid bet. I just feel like I feel like you're going to enjoy this. I mean, have a great amount of fun with it, whether it cashes or not. Much more than a Rinespan bet. Well, look, we're, we still haven't done Rhyanspan.

we're going to try and keep it that way, but I make no promises. There's a lot of time between now and Saturday night. A lot of time to get bored. Even more time than I thought now that I've just discovered that they started 730 on Saturday, which is just really, it's a huge blow for me. It's detrimental for my health to find that out. No, it's great, man. Just go out, spend the day, do whatever, come home, cook dinner,

and you'll be just in time to see Tutsu or Taira because you'll have skipped the Nick Maximoff fight because you don't have any action. I'll low-key be watching for just a root on Andre Petroski. I need to see my enemies fall. All right, let's recap it. The bets that we have locked in currently right now, I got Grant Smolka under two and a half minus 155. Chukagian Hibas over two and a half minus 210.

Camacho Torres under two and a half minus 175. Andrea Lee going head to head against Jed minus 110. And I just added live on the show, Angela Hill plus three and a half, minus 125. I did that on bed online. Two parlayes that I have, Jan Rockich over one and a half, Kudalava Span, fight does not go the distance. That one pays out at minus 146.

Then I have Leah Rojo over one and a half, parlayed with Davy Grant. That one pays out at minus 155. I have Alexander Rockich at minus 190. I have Smokka by Sub at plus 650, a little half wager there. I have Chukagin by decision at plus 120. I also have Chukagin and He-Boss fight goes to a decision as part of a parlay piece.

That's parlayed with Nick Maximov for a minus 120 payout for you. I have, sorry, I'm scrolling down my list here, nothing, nothing until I get to a Rujo, minus 105. I have Alam Patric by submission at plus 500. I've got Angela Hill by decision at plus 220. And there it is. Those are the bets. Do we even rate these? Do we even go?

What do I think my best bet is? In my opinion, even paying minus 210, I would say mine is Chukagi and Hevas over two and a half. Oh, yeah, that probably is it. I think my best bet is probably the Chughegigi and Hebas goes the distance, frankly. It's a parlay piece. if you want an actual bet, since that's just a parlay piece. Oh, that's tough.

I don't know if I have great bets. My best bet then is going to be Chukai game by decision. I think that that's a really solid bet. Fight that I'm staying away from 10 football, Hadley, Nassimento. I want no part of that. I'm going to say it because if I say it now, then I have to commit to it. It's Ryan Span, I'm staying away because if I say it, he's. year, I can't bet on it, then no one will believe me moving forward.

I have to build credibility with the listeners, staying away from Ryan Spaniy and Qutalaba. Best value underdog play. We sold ourselves on one. Was it the Andrea Lee and Erojo winner is by split decision? We don't have a nod on a line on that yet, but whatever that is is a very, very solid bet. Yes, I hope we do get a line on that. one we sold ourselves on? I could have sworn there was another like value play that we. I don't recall. I think it was this. That was definitely a thing that we sold ourselves on, but

I can't think of anything else unless, unless you're talking about the Kia Parley, which, you know. Oh, the Kia Parlay. We're going to see how the Kia Parlay goes. I mean, that is, if it hits, that's an incredible call by you. Wolfpack Wager, we don't have a Wolfpack Wager this week, but we have a coin flip fight. We're going against each other on. I'm on Andrea Lee. Your honor, we're going to see how that one plays out.

The head-to-head record officially begins. We need a name. So listeners, if you guys can think of something catchy, pithy, we have the name Wolfpack Wager, but if you guys can think of anything. Something you put on a T-shirt. We're trying to sell merch down the line.

So if you guys can think of a name, let us know, and if we like it, you know, maybe we'll adopt it. All right, well, that's all I've got. You got anything else before we, close this sucker out? I do not. This week, we kept it, we kept it tight. A shorter car, less interesting fights, if we're being honest. And we, you know, we're in and out. And

now we just have the long wait till 7.30 on Saturday. Yeah, from right now this moment we're recording, that's a solid 96 hours away. So we really got to put some time in. But the good news is bets are already made. We can start looking ahead to Holly Home versus Ketland Vieira next You thought we had it good this week. It gets even better. Santiago Panzanivio, Michel Pereira, though, in the co-man. That's a co-man right there. That could have been a really fun fight until Michelle Pahaire turned into not a fun fighter.

When Michelle Pah... Chase Hooper, Philippe Corrales? Come on, man. So that fight is pretty solid. But Michelle Paheyer was one of my favorite guys before I joined the UFC. He was my favorite sort of unsigned talent because he's a loom. And he came to the U.C. and he did lunatic stuff. And then Diego Sanchez beat him and he was like, oh, I can't be fun anymore.

Now I have to be a good fighter. And it sucks because like three years ago, Ponzanibio v. Pahia would have been just anarchy. And now it's probably going to be a tactical welterweight battle or whatever. Oh, we got, uh, we got Jelton Almeda and Parker Porter supposedly opening the card. I actually, that is going to be a ridiculous. affair. Almeda is going to do some messed up things to

Parker Porter in my opinion. Are we talking about the same Parker Porter who's... I was going to try and pretend like Parker Porter was good. I can't pull it off. Yeah, that's probably going to happen. I wonder what that line's going to be. I bet it's large. I can't wait to parlay it up. I will tell you that much. All right. We will be back next week with a full

card breakdown. Just taking a look there. Holly home. Kelleen-Vier. at UFC Vegas 55. Until then, thank y'all for listening. We'll see you next week. Love you guys. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.