MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: UFC Vegas 64 And The Calm Before The UFC 281 Storm

Episode Date: November 2, 2022

With UFC 281 right around the corner, the UFC is back this weekend with another Fight Night event at the Apex to whet out appetites, UFC Vegas 64, and as always, the No Bets Barred boys are here to cover all the betting angles on the card. First, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew lament Jake Paul's win over Anderson Silva and their own poor performances at UFC Vegas 63. Then they get into breaking down this Saturday's card which, despite its lackluster nature, still ends up fielding nearly a dozen bets each from Conner and Jed, including multiple Flyweight Unders! Tune in for Episode 23 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Is going on, y'all. We are back. It is another episode of No Bet's Barred. This time for UFC Apex 64. Marina Rodriguez taking on Amanda Lemos. Last card, we see another flyweight underluse. You know, at least the heavyweight unders go one and two. But it really feels like our institutions are crumbling around us here.

They are. It's sad. But we have a lot of opportunity to get them back this week. So, you know, some are saying that we should abandon them entirely. I, you know, I like to go down with the ship. I'm that kind of guy. So, especially on a fight card like this where, let's be honest, not a lot of interesting things happening. So we might as well stick to our guns.

That's what I say. Yeah, you're not understating that. These last four fight nights kind of mashed in between, you know, 280 and 281. Not been the most intriguing. Connor, I mean this incredible, like, dead serious. I want you to be serious. Until yesterday when a coworker text me and was like, hey, asking about some coverage stuff for 281, I did not realize the 281 was next weekend that it's already here. I was like, okay, well, like, I don't know.

I just assumed it was another bad fight night card. And then he was like, hey, can you do this thing on 281? I was like, oh, that's next Friday or Saturday? Well, that makes sense why this fight card sucks then. Yeah, the UFC, you know, they're competing with football, you know, the World Series, everything else going on. These fight nights, I feel like she put something on. Let's just get, let's just have an event so we can say we had an event and we'll focus on the pay-per-views. It's so frustrating, man.

It's just talked about this on one of our post shows or maybe it was a preview show. It's just like the ESPN deal just is killing me, dude. Like having to hit 42 events a year or maybe it's 40. I think it actually might be 46. It's just, it's so many of them. And like, we didn't, we sort of alluded to it. We didn't talk about it. Last week was not a UFC event.

Last week was Arnold Allen versus Calvin Cater and an LFA card. Half the fighters on it were from LFA. It was an LFA card. And that's fine. I don't mind LFA. LFA is okay on a Friday night if you got nothing else to do, whatever. It's a decent feeder promotion, but it shouldn't be the UFC. And it's, we're getting some.

something similar here, though I do think this, this fight card is better than last week, so I will say that. I agree with that. But it's just like, it would be, this one doesn't even bother me that much. I just feel like if we could just lose one event a month, that would just make every event better because the fight, like, you would have to condense those fights a little better, give us more time to enjoy things as opposed to the constant churn of new fight night, new fight night, new fight night, pay-per-view, new fight night, new fight night, new fight night. It's just so much, man. And you get something like this and it's just like, I guess, whatever, who cares? It is, dude. And you know, you kind of, no one came here to listen to us, you know, vent on the UFC's scheduling issues.

But yeah, it's a lot. Let me tell you how bad this card is, Connor. Like, dude, we work in the industry and like it kind of feels like a lot. I'm imagining for the, especially the more casual fans, it's like, no need for me to. to tune into this. I think it's easier for the casual fans because the casual fans don't feel obligated to watch everything. They can just go to MMAfighting.com great website and check out, you know, the results,

see the highlights, et cetera. That's what I'm saying. Yeah. It's better to be casual. Maybe I'll tune in. Oh, my God. Yeah. Maybe I'll tune in for the main event.

We'll see, you know, straw weight title implications maybe. So, yeah, I'll tune in for the main event. Connor, here, again, I think this card's better than last week. But you know how you can tell it's a bad card? draft kings doesn't even have props up right they don't have anything we record this lines and over unders Wednesday morning right now and like I can't get my typical alt over one and a halfs anywhere like this is the props are taking forever this week whereas like a pay-per-view card you've got props on frigging Monday night you got everything by Wednesday morning it really is like on Wednesday mornings is because

Props usually don't come out until Tuesday evening, so we'll record on Wednesday morning so we can have the full range of bets. It's just like, nope. Like, even draft Kings doesn't care about this one, man. I mean, it's, and like, going back to last week, too, it got made so much worse that it was Arnold Allen Calvin Cater in an LFA fight. And then Calvin Cater injures his leg in the first round. It was very, very disappointing. That whole, that whole card last week was incredible. frustrating for just about every possible angle that card was frustrating it it felt like there was no

stakes it felt like there really wasn't that many eyes on it there wasn't that much excitement for it and then i just got murked on my bets like it was just like i started good uh i hit i hit my first two bets and then i just went on a tear of like missing five in a row i i broke even on the ufc last week actually so i had a couple underdogs hit which helped to backtrack lose more bets than I won, but I took a big, big, big, from old Andy Silver. I may have misjudged Anderson Silver versus Jake Paul to the tune of multiple, multiple units. I'm not going to name names, but there's a man on MMA fighting's team that had a hefty, a sum that I would have been uncomfortable with on Anderson Silva.

There are more than a man from the big findings team. That number is greater than one and maybe greater than two, actually. Yeah, when I was told the amount of money that a few people had on Anderson Silva, I was like, oh, wow, I was nervous about my, you know, $40 bet on him. You guys are talking about, you know, rent payments and whatnot. My issue was just that the line kept moving and I'm an idiot. And I couldn't, like, I couldn't get away from it. I was like, well, I took it at 150.

Now it's 175. Well, now it's 200. Like, how do I not keep taking, taking more and more? And in my head, I made, I made the classic error of, like, the only thing I'm grateful for is that I at least was, like, cognizant enough. to realize that I was exposing myself a lot. Because I had a moment where I was like, what do I just bet everything? Because this is going to hit.

And I was like, this line keeps moving in direct violation of everything I think in my head. I have to be missing something here. And that thought alone kept me from bankrupting myself. And it turns out I, in fact, was missing something. So it's good. But, man, I was very surprised by that outcome. And I shouldn't be in hindsight.

It actually makes total sense. I'm just a moron, which is always the risk of gambling. If you're a moron, sometimes that's tough. Yeah, I mean, we talk about being a moron. I was, you know, the fight to go to a decision was at plus money. And all week I was just like, this is going to a decision. This is going to a decision. I promise you, I don't think Paul is going to be able to touch him up enough to knock him out.

I don't think Silva is going to knock him out of it. It's going to go to a decision. So being the smart man that I am. I played Anderson Silva by decision instead of just taking the Fico's to a decision. So I lost money on that as well, which was sick. Just the whole thing. I realized pretty early on, I think in like the fourth round is when I realized that I was probably screwed. Because I had it, I had Silva up four, three heading into the last round, but I assume that most judges didn't.

And moreover, I realized like my whole, I wrote a, I wrote about. it for the website. My whole thing was like, yeah, I know Jake Paul's younger, but what does that mean? He's not going to knock out Anderson Silva. Anderson Silva doesn't get knocked out. He's been knocked out one time the Wydenman, K.O. Like, Jake Paul is a big puncher, sure, but he's not going to land a big shot. And all of that was true. I just totally discounted the fact that Jake Paul would in fact punch him. It's like he would continue to work while Anderson would do Anderson things. And, you know, threw away that fight.

Jake Paul won that fight, no questions asked. I ain't got nothing to argue that. For sure. It is the only thing is he won the fight because for five rounds, Anderson didn't fight, which is what you should have expected. It's Anderson Silva. But in my head, I just couldn't get past it. It was like, he's just going to beat him because he's better than him.

And he was when the times he tried, and then he couldn't try that much because he's almost 50, and that's just who he is. He's great game playing, great work from Jake Paul. Didn't see the knockdown coming. No, that was the stamp. I, like, had a little bit of hope left. And then when the knockout, because he came out so aggressive in the eighth round. And then when the knockdown came, I was like, it's over.

Yeah, I really, yeah. And honestly, that was just great work from Jake. Because, like, I thought Anderson coming out putting his own stamp on the eighth round. Because every time he had come forward and just sort of bullied, Jake, he was doing it. It was very successful in doing so. I was like, yes, you should have been doing this literally the rest of the entire fight. And then Jake just clips him with the right hand, sits him on his butt. You know, not a big shot.

Didn't really hurt Anderson, but sat him down and that's all you need. I mean, that's all you need to get the definitive round. So Jake Paul keeps on winning. I know people who have just bet on him every single fight and they just view him as a money machine. I am a little bit jealous of them because on numerous occasions, I have bet against them. So moving on the UFC Apex 64, there were two reasons. It looks like we're going to have to. We're sitting in these studios.

We got microphones in front of our faces, and I got more bets than I intended to have locked in. I hate it. I hate it. I hate it. I look at it. I'm like, how did I end up here? I was like clean, green, four bets. I'm going to go four and oh, and I'm just going to get back on it.

We're on the 201? Nope. Nope. Nope. I have eight singles in a parlay, like, because that's what it is. I was like, I'm not even going to do a parlay this week, four bets. That's all you're getting out of me. And I'm going to win money off three and one at worst.

This is awesome. We got eight bets. And then I'm going to finish down three units. I'm going to be like, what went wrong? Why did I trust, why did I trust Derek Minner with my money? Why did I trust, you know? I love this so much. So, yeah.

I have nine singles in a parlay. Oh, my God. And a floating parlay piece. I don't have anything. to tie it to. I'll probably just leave it as an open. We are, uh, we are like, we are, one degenerates, two, we're just what the bookies love. Like the bookies listen to this podcast, they're like, fucking idiots. I love these guys. They're so good. After the donations they made last week with Jared Van dera submission,

let's see what they come up with this week. Look, I maintain firmly that that's a good bet. It didn't cash. For one of these days, it's gonna cash. They didn't got him. They didn't got him. I know. Do you play fantasy football? Yes, I have many times. I know people don't care about fantasy football, but this analogy feels incredibly appropriate.

I drafted Kyle Pitts in several teams this year. It's not been going great for me. But you can't cut Kyle Pitts because the day you cut him, that's the day that he is going to go off. And then you're going to feel like an asshole. And that's where I am with Jared Vander by submission, baby. I can't not bet it because the time I don't, it's going to hit for plus 2,000, and I'm going to feel like the biggest asshole in the world. 100%. I was, you know, to tie it back to football, the flip side of that, the Atlanta Falcons started 6 and 0 against the spread.

I picked up on it when they were like 3 and 0. I was like, as soon as I bet this, they're going to lose 4 and 0. I was like, no, I'll hang on for just another 5 and 0. I was like, I'll just hang on another minute along, 6 and I was like, all right, I got to get in now. This is where it ends. They play the Bengals. They get bludgeoned. It was never even close.

Didn't even come close to covering the spread. It's just the way it works. You can't get in on cool trends unless you get in on the ground floor. And if we quit Jared Vanderra out by sub at this point, his next fight, he's choking someone out in the first round. Go-go-plata. It's just going to be the sickest sub, too. It's just going to kill me. So I'm in.

It's going to put them in the title picture immediately. That's how good it's going to be. Two reasons. There's no price you can pay for peace of mind. and the peace of mind I get by knowing that I won't miss if Jared Vanderar I hit, it's worth the bet. It's worth the bet. What I can't wait for is when he has to go back to the regional scene,

and then we're betting like a, you know, maybe an LFA. An actual LFA card? Yeah, LFA, Jared Vandera by submission. And one day we'll cash. As long as they keep giving sub props and that man keeps getting in rings and octagons, I will continue to bet him to win by submission. and one day someone's going to whisper in his ear and be like, yeah, man, you're a BJJ Black, bro.

You can just take this guy down. You know how to do this, so it's going to be great. You don't have to stand and strike with the former pro boxer that has some height and reach on you and skill advantage. Just a little bit, just a baby bit. All right, so two things I was excited for this card. One, Marina Rodriguez, Rodriguez, you know, the Brazilian thing always makes me want to call her hot.

I, I, I, MMA has just made my brain mush. I do all ours are, are the soft art. That's what I think too. And then when I was watching tape on her, a buffer called her Rodriguez. Yeah. No, no, it's Hodriguez. We'll go with one of the two. I'll be mixing it up all show.

I want to see her fight. I want to see her get a title shot. I've been on Marina for, for a minute now. I'm excited to see her fight. The other reason I was excited, Jelton Almeida. Oh. Couldn't wait to see him fight. That's a shame. I mean, that guy's must see television for me.

Him on the prelims of an apex card is just as big as a pay-per-view title fight main event for me. I mean, that's what I'm talking about when Jailts Alameda gets in the ring. I usually overexposed myself like into the oblivion on him. I think I had like 12 units of exposure on him last time out. I was looking forward to doing the exact same thing and we lose them. He's off the card. We lost him from this card. We only have to wait until January for him now.

I mean, the guy is ready. I don't know if you follow him on Twitter. It was a very sad saga. He had just landed in Vegas when he got the news. Oh, really? Also found out wasn't going to get a fight. He starts tweeting, he's like, I was made for this. Like, I'm not broken.

This doesn't deter me. I'll get back in as soon as I possibly can. I just don't know why they didn't give him a fight. Yeah, like just throw somewhere. The result is going to be the same. I can promise you. you're giving him an unranked heavyweight, unranked lightweight, the result will be the same. Pick up a random dude from Vegas.

Like, it's fine. Like, they do, it's always so weird to me is they do stuff like that all the time. And it's like, was Maxime Grishen really like this, we're building him? No, it was just a body. It was a body for Jailton to come do Jailton things to. And now, like, you could still have him fight this weekend, get paid, be on the card, do the thing. And then he can still go fight at 283. It's not like that.

It's not like the Shemil fight. goes away if he fights this week. And it's in January. It's three months away. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I don't know why. And the dude flew all the way out there.

I mean, Amanda Lemos was having struggles getting there. Jailton was already there. I mean, so yeah, we'll get him on 283 in front of the Brazilian crowd. Should be sick. I'm going to have to buy a shirt for him. So, yeah, that is what it is. But we still got Marina 100. I thought we were going to lose the main event for a minute when Guillermo.

was tweeting about, or not making the flight. I did not pay attention to that until this morning when I opened up Slack because I was off yesterday. Oh, good call, good call. All right. So let's dive right into it. I mean, let's just jump right in. Apparently, I'm going to talk about, wait, how many fights are on this card? Like 12, it looks like 12.

12 of them. I think we have action down on like 10. That's just what we do around here. Geniuses who are definitely betting smart bets all the time. That is just what we do around here. All right, let's get it going. Main event, strawweight bowed. Marina Rodriguez going up against Amanda Lemos.

Right now you can get Rodriguez for minus 210. Lemos coming back at plus 180 over under set at 4.5 under minus 120 over minus 110. Yeah, back-to-back weeks. Main event, it's just a bias pick for me. Arnold Allen last week, Marina Rodriguez this week. I need to see Marina Rodriguez get a title shot, been banging that drum since the beginning of the year, honestly since the McKenzie Dern fight. So yeah, I'm not going to go against her now.

I'm with you. And again, this is maybe I just intuitive, you know, we've been doing this a while now, and I just knew where you'd be and where I wanted to be. I do also just, I've never seen Marina Rodriguez loose. I've never seen it. I know that some people say. say, some two judges say that she lost to Carla Sparza, but I have eyeballs and I watched that fight and she didn't lose that fight. I've never seen her lose a fist fight. And so it's tough

for me to imagine she's going to lose to Mendelema. She was a good fighter. They're a fine fighter, but she's getting a little up there in years. And I just- Both these girls being 35 threw me off. Yeah, it's a little wild because it's not what I would anticipate. But you know, it's, All I'm saying, it's, I think, Hadriguez is a better striker, certainly. A little more volume, good takedown defense. And I'm just, I don't know, I think Limos should, I've seen Limos lose. Now granted most recently is probably to the sub of the year, certainly one of them against Jessica and George.

But I think it's going to be a good fight. I think for being real, it's probably not a good value to bet Marina or Rodriguez at minus 210, but I do think she's going to win. I wanted to talk with you about this fight specifically. The over under here is Vegas has done the thing right because I'm really tempted to place a bed on the under here. And I think that that might be wrong. Am I wrong? All right.

So obviously the woman with the much higher finishing potential is a mandolemos. I mean, we've seen her get multiple first. first round knockouts in her UFC career. She does have power for the strawweight division. She's only been to decision three times in her career. Like she finishes or gets finished. Her two losses are finishes. I mean, dude, like, here's the way that I see this playing out. You talked about Marina Rodriguez having good takedown defense, you know, the Carlos Sparza loss, the draws. Every time that she struggles, it's when her opponents rely on the wrestling random Marcos, Cynthia Calvillo.

They all went for takedowns and racked up control time. Going back and watching Lemos, like, yeah, she is the better grappler in this matchup, more than likely, I think most people would say that. She just isn't a wrestling person. Like, she just doesn't, that's not what she does. She's not going to lay and pray. She's not going to go for ground and pound. She's usually, it's usually frantic with the scrambles, and she's usually, you know, going for submissions and things like that. I mean, she's never had more than two and a half minutes of control time in a fight.

So what I think is going to happen is they're going to come out. They're going to be swinging, banging. you know, maybe Lemos does complete a takedown or two. But as the fight goes on, I think Marina Rodriguez is just going to continue to take over more and more. I mean, her striking is just so crisp. And I think she has power in her own hands at 115. And I can see like a TKO at like the third or fourth round. That's true.

I think that there is maybe a world where she gets to stop inside the distance later on in the fight. the big thing that has blocked me from the bet and why i think Vegas is smart to where they've set the line and got the number is just like nine of or eight of her nine ufc fights have gone to the cards and that includes two two main events you know two five round fights so it's but i part of me is really drawn if that number were a plus number i would probably bet it but the fact that it's minus 120 it just it's calling to me but i think i'm going to stay away I feel like it would be more alive than Alexa Grosso fight doesn't go to a decision. Oh, yeah, for sure.

Like that one was just, that was always going to a decision. From the minute that fight started, it was like, well, yep, okay. Yeah, so I don't hate it. Let's be clear, I would have bet any number of dollars that Calvin Cater would not. be finished last week. Oh my God. Don't even give me started. Yeah, I had over one and a half to finish two parleses.

And like, as soon as that knee blew out, I was like, God, I am just getting unlucky this week. That's the thing. That's the thing with, like, betting overs that's so sketchy to me is that, like, it can just end at just any second. Yes. Like, MMA is just crazy. Like, I had a guy reach out to me on Twitter and be like, you know, draft

Kings does like finish like goes to decision or whatever and finish negates the bet uh I forget what you call oh like a decision only yeah decision only bets and was like all right like this feels good like I can take this right and I was just like look I'm not going to tell you specifically what to do with your money that's that's not where I want to be but seems really really unlikely that Calvin Cater gets finished and then that happens and that happens like it's The most volatile sport with the most variants, and this is the one we choose the bet on on a weekly basis. There's a ton of chaos. Chaos at all points in time.

Yeah, so I'm with you. I don't think there's a ton of value on Marina Rodriguez at minus 210 because there is a chance that, like, Lemos just goes out and blasts her or, you know, it's a, you know, she's landing the heavier shots over the five rounds and it's like a super sketchy close decision. but if you came here for value, that's just the wrong thing. Yeah, I don't know what you're talking about. You've been. We're here for the memes. We're here for the fun. We're here to make this interesting.

Speaking of the memes, I don't have this bet down for reasons aforementioned, but I have this tucked away as a bet I'm intending to make as soon as the lines do eventually come up. Marina Hedriguez, over one and a half, a number is going to be large. I'm stealing the Connor Burke's bet as a parlay piece for an upcoming that's going to, I'm going to pair it with another bet, which we'll talk about in a little bit. Okay, so the over one and a half in the main event. Yes, over one and a half in the main event is half of a two-leg parlay for me, or will be when those lines drop. I don't hate the idea. I already played Marina Rodriguez at minus 205.

Of course, because we record this, I never have any. patience and I just get my bets in. I don't hate the idea. Draft Kings does the same game parles. Like a Marina Rodriguez and the over one and a half or over two and a half or something like that. Depending on what the odds, like if it gets you from like minus 210 to like minus 160, you know. I mean, yeah.

I don't even know if it'll get you that much. I assume the over. Given the over under at four and a half is close to a pickum, I suspect over one and a half is going to be minus 500 something. But I'll actually tell you. you on a on a sportsbook that is available to me they do have it oh they have the over one and a half minus three 15 oh smashing that in this parley this is going to be a tremendous 10 minus 310 i'm sorry oh i'm so excited about this parley uh yeah i got a little over one and a half

parley cooked up and uh you'd be you'd be mistaken if you thought i wasn't going to include this main event in there uh so that's going to be a good way to finish the night Unwrapped holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to luxe beauty and fragrance sets, our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winters, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list?

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at Winners? Stop wondering. Start Gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. All right. That's the main event. Marina Rodriguez, probably goes a little long. Maybe doesn't go to a decision. Marina Rodriguez, that's who we're rolling with. Let's get to the co-main event. It is a

welterweight belt, Neomagney, going up against Daniel Rodriguez. Neumagney, minus 115, Daniel Rodriguez, minus 105. Fight goes the distance, minus 210. Fight does not go plus 170. Quick turnaround for D-Rod. Quick turnaround for D-Rod. Dicey decision against the leech.

A lot of people weren't happy with that, but I mean, still, four straight wins, 13 of his last 14. And I mean, how can you, like, really blame him after the week that UFC 279 was? Like, he still got in there and he got the win. Like, that's really all this comes down to. Magni coming off a loss against the Buzz Saul, the future champion. Shafkat, Raghmanoff. Yeah.

Oh, future champion. Okay. I respect that. Is that that hot of a take? I don't know. I'm all in on Shavkat. And then I was at a... I love Shavkat.

I think Hamzat's a better prospect and also, at least in theory, fights in the same division. So, interesting. I mean, Shafkat Hamzat is like a... It's going to be the best Weltery title fight in the world in 2024. Dream match. for me. Dream matchup for me. I was at an international wedding this year, if I have never mentioned that on this podcast.

I didn't know. Where was it? Timbuktu. Yeah, Timbuktu. We were in Italy. And there was a man from Kazakhstan there. And I started chatting him up and I asked him about Shafkot. He was like, oh, yeah, yeah, Triple G.

I was like, well, that's boxing. But, yeah, Shafq. Same guy. Same. I like Shafat a lot. Yeah, we're really getting off the rails here. So here's what I see. with this fight. I see it being

super close. I think this one's going to be close. I think it's going to be a decision. I mean, just looking at these guys, tough, not the biggest finishing capabilities. Lean Drod has the bigger finishing capabilities. I mean, Neumagney has the most decision wins in welterweight history, if you want to know anything about him. So I think it goes the full 15.

And in a fight that's going to go, the full 15 minutes, I'm going to side with the guy that's going to like, just throw and throw and throw and throw, which is our man in Daniel Rodriguez. 7.75 significant strikes line per minute, most significant strikes line per minute in welterweight history. He's also, in my opinion, got the more powerful shots. Now, what gives me pause is the quick turnaround, the staff infection that got this one pushed back to where it is today, the threat of the takedowns from Magny and just like the unrelenting, just like never quit attitude of Neil

Magny, he comes on strong, laden fights. So, you know, similar to the Jake Paul Anderson Silva fight, I really think this fight's going to go to a decision. But instead of just playing goes to a decision, I took a look at the old lines. Neil Magny by decision plus 120, Daniel Rodriguez by decision plus 225. So I threw a half unit on Daniel Rodriguez by decision plus 225. I don't hate that. I am also, I'm taking just Drod straight minus 105.

I have a second bet on this. I'll get to that in a moment. I agree with everything you said. I've been really high on Daniel Rodriguez. I think this is a work-rate fight. Like he's just going to outwork Neil Magni, which is not something many people do, but it's got a really good take down defense.

Magny's not going to be able to get him to the floor. I don't think. I have questions about Magny just maybe getting a clinch and working there because he's pretty good in the clinch. D-Rat hasn't been there a ton. But it's going to be a lot of hands from D-Rod. and that's where we go. A couple of other points.

One thing, the idea of Magny's reach, that 80-inch reach, and him just kind of staying at range if it stays on the feet, is that? Not at all. It's just, I think D-Rod's a better boxer. Just a straight better boxer. All right, cool, cool. I was a little bit worried about it. You calm me down, though.

I like that. Now, I also think Magny might be in for a decline. I think he might be dropping off. He had his run at the top. Now I think he's probably going to fall. Fun fact, I just wanted to mention this because when I looked at it, it seemed very interesting to me. All four fighters in the co-main and main event are 35. Super weird.

Oh, yeah, I saw that. I thought it was weird, too. Also, like, UFC 280, it was like every fighter fighting out of the red corner except for one was 33 years old. Oh, that's weird. I didn't notice that. That's odd. A conspiracy there for the UFC. I love conspiracy.

I love some with ages. But you know what I love more than conspiracies, Connor? I love gimmick parles. Oh, wow. And I don't know if you noticed that the main event and the co-mate event haven't to have two fighters with the same last name. Furthermore, Connor, let me remind you of three weeks ago, the Grasso-Arauzzo fight card.

We also had multiple fights with people. people sharing the same last name. And in fact, bet both of those, I bet, if you recall, I bet a Martinez parley, cashed a ticket. And do you remember what the other parlay was?

It was a Rodriguez parley that cashed the ticket. And now I have an opportunity to do so again. Now, again, I haven't made the bet because, as I mentioned in the main event, over one and a half lines, not up on draft kings.

But I also share your thoughts on this fight. I'm going to be parlaying Rodriguez and Magni over one and a half with Rodriguez and Limosho over one and a half. The reason I didn't parlay the two fighters up straight of Marina and Daniel Rodriguez, and I may still, just because that feels more in the heart of the gimmick, I just feel like their lines are good enough to just take them straight. And so I kind of was just like, I'll just take them straight. I don't need to parlay either of them. but actually maybe that's in the spirit of this I should just parlay them together

and then I can also have the over one and a half parlay because I think that's a good parlay so I love that I thought about it as soon as I saw the names I thought of you I was like dad's probably going to be on a Rodriguez parlay this week got to do it I'm on singles technically the D-Rod is by decision but the reason you know D-Rod by decision I'm also on the one and a half that's like two of the old CBO that's the Connoberg's special 5 parlay there. One more to come. One more to come to get this over one and a half parlay.

Oh, there's a third. Okay. To plus money, plus money parlay is. It's a rare thing in the Burke's household. But we got there. And I'm pretty excited about it. So we're both on D-Rod, a little bit of agreeance here. We both think that they're going to go wrong.

I mean, long. Well, did I just change this? I think it's going to the cards. I'm with you. Oh, for sure. I'm with you for sure. Did I just say wrong? Yeah.

We can pull this tape that if we're, if these bets go bad, I just jinxed this right here live on the show. No, no, no. These bets can't go bad. Look, we, I've been experimenting with the name parley for a while. And I realized that the Randy Parley that failed is because it was a first name Parley. Yes, great point. And Randy Costa is bad. That was also a problem.

That's also another thing about that parley. I've never lost a Rodriguez Parley. I've never lost a last name Parley. This is both of those. Huge sample size. Huge sample size too. Guys, we're about to be 3 and 0 on name Parles, is all I'm saying. Rodriguez Parleys can't miss.

All right. Let's keep it rolling. On the main card. That's good. I don't have much to say about the rest of my eight more bets. Can we just talk about like, I'm like pretty excited for the, for the co-main and the main? Can we just talk about like the just cliff drop-off to third fight on the main? Because if you want to talk about being excited for the main co-main, Connor, I would like to once again introduce you.

to the most electric bet in MMA gambling, the heavyweight over, Connor Birx, is just, I'm looking forward to this, to the Chase Sherman versus Josh Parisian fight more than any other fight on the card because it's the most fun you can have

to just have a unit down on the worst things possible. And if you lose, like it did last weekend, Andra Lovsky had the decent, to immediately lose. So I didn't even have to sweat it. It was just over. This one, this one's getting out of the first round. Get into that second round. It starts getting a little sweaty. You're on the edge of your seat. Every time Chase Sherman's throwing a haymaker, things are just getting, getting tense. So obviously I'm on the over two and a half at plus

130. I invite you to join me. It's a great time. I was actually a little shocked that the fight doesn't go to a decision was lined at like minus 325. That seems high for the over two and a half to be plus 130. There's a world where this goes to a decision. Oh, there's for sure a world. I will say, I actually, I mean, I think that line still feels a little odd, but Parisian has a interesting habit of never going to decision, despite often going long. Chase Sherman in the same boat.

Yeah, it does too. Like maybe that's why they're lined like that. They're expecting a post two and a half minutes in the third round finish. Just a gas finish, you know? We're just too gassed. Yeah, I mean, that's pretty much, that's all there is to say on this fight. Like I... I have an actual true bet on this fight too because I'm a DJ.

What'd you do? Flip a coin? No, I bet she is Sherman. Oh, God. Just a classy minus 130. I bet him for one very stupid and specific reason. I view Chase Sherman and Parker Porter as functionally the same fighter. And also, I don't know if you know this.

Chase Sherman, do you know how many significant strikes he lands per minute? I'm sure a lot because he's had like six fights where he's landed more than 100. 6.51 strikes landed per minute. Also, fun fact, he absorbs 6.51 strikes. He is net neutral on strikes. He gives you one. He's taking one right back. I can promise you that.

of give one to take one. Man's out here playing Rochambeau. It's tremendous. Does the two and seven in the last nine give you any problems? No, because Parker Porter lands 6.49 strikes per minute and absorbs something very, very similar. Chase Sherman and Parker Porter the same dude. Parker, comfortable win over Josh Peresion. This is a stupid bet, but I saw it and was like,

how does this just feel like Chase Sherman wins this fight? fight pretty, like, I think that's just going to happen. So I took Jay Sherman at minus 130. It's not a good bet. I'm not here to tell you it's a good bet, but it's a bet that was made. I'll say, like, it seems like the people are a little bit confident in Chase Sherman. The line is moving, you know, to make him a bigger and bigger favorite. Are we going to get Chase Sherman closing around minus 150? I mean, anything could happen.

I mean, certainly, because as you know, we're the most listened to a M.M. Gambling podcast in the world. The lines. Clear knowledge. Everyone knows this. The lines they move when we talk. Flyweight unders, we're going to talk about some flyweight unders coming up.

Those lines are different than I think we would normally expect. And I'm pretty sure we're the reason. Yeah, those are, oh, man, those are tough cells this week. Nope. I'm not going to lie to. All right. Well, I mean, that was the heavyweight bow. Let's where you were just at.

Let's dive right in. It's a men's flyway bout. It's to get Olin Bekhov going up against Nate Mennesse. Right now you can get Olin Bekhov minus 210. Maness coming back at plus 180 fight goes to distance. Minas minus 190 fight does not go plus 155. Yeah, Nate Maness in a flyway bout, he's 510. I'm 6'1.

That's three inches taller, but there's no world. And there's infinite universes, not one of them. Could I get down to 125? And like, I'm pretty scrawny. Like, name and S is is kind of jacked. Like, I don't know how, like, this is going to take a toll on his body getting down to 125. He's just, he's just killing himself three times a year. That's just all that's happening.

But, you know, do what makes you happy, I guess. I mean, I'm going to be shocked if it's not like a, I mean, at minimum, like a, like a 126. Like, he is, like, if you look at the pictures of him on the scale at minus 130, or at 135, Like, he's, he's got muscle on him, dude. Like, I don't know where the last 10 comes off. I don't know. He is, if we could bet on who's going to miss weight, I mean, he is clearly. I think he would be minus money.

I think it'd be minus money. He is clearly the guy who is more likely to me. I mean, dude fought a featherweight, you know? Like, featherweight. Dude, fought it lightweight before. Did he? Yeah. Oh, wow.

He's five. Dude, he's five, ten. Like, that is like, who's the tall. his flyweight in history. 510's got to be up there. It probably is, actually. I have no idea. Yeah, I have no confidence that he'll make the weight, but

for whatever reason, he seems to think he's going to, so I suppose we're going to find out. Fortunately, I don't think it matters. Because Tegu Lembekov's going to beat him. So there's that. Yeah, I mean, I'm actually

so, so Teguil Olin Bekhov is in a weird place with me, He's kind of in this trust zone limbo. I was on him against Alan Nassimento. Wow, was that a sweat? That was a sweat from the opening bell to the second he got his hand raised. I was not sure if he was going to win that fight.

And then against Tim Elliott, he just kind of played into Tim Elliott's hand and lost the decision. But here's what I'll say. He's got one more chance. He loses this one. It's done. I can no longer bet to get Roland Beck off.

I think he learned a good lesson. against Tim Elliott. Don't stand and just bang with these dudes. You got knocked down in the first round. Two, his boy, Umar Nirmagamadav, coming off just a domination of Nate Mennes. They trained together.

And then, you know, doing a little research, Umar Namagamatov Instagram story. I don't know if you saw this, Kumar, Umar Namagamatov Instagram story last night. It's the Gear Olin Beckoff, signing posters.

So you got to think Umar is sort of giving him a couple tips, a couple tricks of beating Nate Maness. The game plan is clear. The game plan is clear what you need to do. I think he's going to be a little bit compromised from this weight cut. I think Tagir knows what he needs to do. I think he needs to get this win. He'll likely have, you know, I don't know who all he's going to have in his corner. Last time I was Islam, Kabim, Habi Mendez.

I assume it's that Islam, I don't think is going to be there because I saw Islam giving him. on a world tour at this point. He's at home. He is coming back to help Umar prepare for the belly, but my assumption is that this turnaround's a little too rapid, so he's still gone. But I would suspect that Habib is there because coach Habib, baby. And I'll give you mine.

I'm betting, I've got to bet on Ullumbeckov straight because I'm not betting against coach Habib. Why would you? That man just, man does not miss. Also. It comes out in the backwards hat. There's something very endearing about Khabi, Even a bad for that.

Everything about. It could be disdering. But also, just because I want to mention this fun fact, because I do think it's fun, feel a little bad for Nate Maness. Because Umar Nur Mahometov, the Samba World Champion in 2015. This is at 62 kilograms, obviously a separate weight class. He's going from that to Uembekov, who's the 2014 Samba World Champion at 57 kilograms. Back to back, Samba.

Hey, I know you just lost to people doing this. What if you did it again? Just go a little lighter weight. See if that's easier for you. It's tough hang. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Maness, like it's, I mean, there's a chance he comes out here and, like, he does have power. And like, if the weight cut goes well, he'll probably balloon back up and then have a huge size advantage.

I just can't believe it. I mean, just the red flag surrounding the weight cut, the red flag surrounding the exact. the exact style that he is about to go against, getting him 30-25 against Umar, who obviously I will admit, I mean, he's not getting 30-25, bro. He's getting finished.

Because this is a flyweight fight. And I'm taking the under, baby. Flyway under two and a half of plus 160. I'm taking the under. I'm not giving up on our dreams and our institutions. I believe in them. They believe in me. And I think with the way he's going to hit.

I mean, you're crazy if you think I'm giving up. I have concerns about your belief. This week's not because of this fight because on our dock I noticed conspicuously there was a flyway fight left off it from your input. So I don't know if you've lost the belief, but I haven't. I'm here on the under two and a half plus 160. Let's go, babe. All right. So here's what I was thinking.

I was like, all right, I'm going to choose one this week. But what we alluded to earlier with, you know, the Falcons and the spread, the Vanderaa sub, I'm going to choose one. You're choosing the wrong one. Like, there's no shot. If I had to choose one, I strongly prefer that to gear one. I mean, like, what if Nate Menace just comes out of here just, like, compromised and just gets finished? Or doesn't come out compromise.

It's just enormous and just blows them up. Look, I'm on the end of two and a half. think about it. I just, I just pointing and click. Do I really need a knife bet on this car? You don't need it, but I'm a man of science. I refuse to

quit this. I'm not committing to it right now as the week goes on. I probably will. I can't give up on the dream just yet. You're right. Perfect world. I don't play the Hadley one. And then we get to gear with the finish.

Well, you tell me, the route to the under on the Hadley fight when we get there. But for now, let's finish up the main card. Lightweight bout. Mark O. Madsen. Mark O. Madsen or Mark Madsen?

I'm actually not sure what he prefers. I have always done it as Mark O. Madsen, because you see that in several places, but you know. Regardless, he's plus 185. Grant Dawson is minus 215. Fight goes to distance minus 190. Fight does not go.

155. Only thing I got on this fight, third leg of the over one and a half parlay finishes on the Olympian and Grant Dawson. Only concern for it is it's wrestler on wrestler and they just start striking and Grant Dawson beats him.

But, no, I trust this. Honestly, if I was going to play the money line, I'd probably say it's the auger pass for me. I mean, just because of the price. I think that that's smart. I also think that that would be smart in the main event

And in both of these instances I have said, I'm good I'm not going to do the smart thing That seems dumb I've been a big Mark Madsen supporter I love Olympic wrestlers They're gosh, I'm a dog a few times This guy isn't just an Olympic wrestler

He's an Olympic silver medalist Silver medalists Yeah, they're built for this Greco, great, great foundation for MMA I have real concerns about kind of he's he is not fighting frequently which is tough the last few years one and done uh clay guida splitty vince bachel not the best performance uh gets the w but not not as great as showing and it's he is that man does not have 15 minutes worth of cardio in him he's got 10 to 12 and

facts i think this he's not getting a finish also not a thing he does the smart thing to do is to just bet this as the over, you know, like that's a smart one. But... Thank you. Thank you. I appreciate that. Instead, I took Grant Dawson because I... Grant Dawson's going to win the third round, and maybe he can even get a finish in the third

round. It's just he has to win one of the first two. And I think Grant Dawson's a better striker. I don't think Grand Dawson's going to be able to get his wrestling game going that well, but I think he's good enough to prevent Mark Madsen from really doing too much there. and I think he's just got a little more flash, a little more pop in his hands. I think he can win the striking battle that will inevitably come about. And I think he all he has to do is win the first of the second round

because he's going to win the third based on cardio. What if they equal out? I mean, does the Ricky Glenn 10-8 on Grant Dawson give you any concern in the third round? Got him that draw? No, I just, because Mark Ranson isn't a guy who's going to hang a, a good last round ever and if they equal out then they're just both gassed in the thirons that's fine it could get sloppy this thing could get sloppy yeah i mean it could be again not a good bet i led by saying not a smart bet but my i don't know the bones just tell me

grant dawson's going to win this love a bone bet you just got gotta bet the bones you know i mean sometimes you just got to bet the bones baby i mean i'm with you sometimes you just you just feel it i I actually ignored my bones last week on Roman deletes. Oh, I did not. It was great. I won't lie to you. I hated it. I hated every second of watching that.

I was like all week. I hate it. When I woke up and I was cracking my knees, the pops literally were like Roman. And then another one, it was like, Delitzet. And I was just like, nah, nah, nah. It was in me all week and I hated it. I was sick. I was watching with my girlfriend.

She was just like, oh, you had haws in that? I was just like, no, I had nothing because I didn't bet on Roman Deleuizze. So in my own mind, that's lost money right there. I mean, it just is it. Honestly, Deleideze really kept me from having a losing UFC week last week. I mean, he's blasted in there.

You know, the haze is the knee thing, but whatever. I mean, he's the one who jacked the man's knee up. So he both ripped his knee off and sent him to the Shadow Realm. 100%. I mean, he's a violent dude. He's a violent dude. He's a violent dude.

Just a quick just highlight from that Grant Dawson, Ricky Glenn fight as I look over the statistics. A barn burner. Grant Dawson first round four minutes and 15 seconds of control time. Grant Dawson. Man loves control. Round two. Four minutes, eight seconds of control time. Round three.

Ricky Glenn, four minutes and 27 seconds of control time. A total of 52 significant strikes landed in that one. a fight of the year candidate for 2021, sadly came up short, I believe, to Volcanovsky Ortega. Was that fight of the year? That sounds about right. I can't remember what the 2021 fight of the year was. That sounds like it might be okay. That or Chandler Gachie, I think we're... Ford was built on the belief that the world doesn't get to decide what you're capable of. You do. So ask yourself, can you or can't you? Can you load up a Ford F-150 and build your dream with sweat and steel? Can you chase thrills and conquer curves in a mustache? Can you take a Bronco to where the

map ends and adventure begins? Whether you think you can or think you can't, you're right. Ready, set, Ford. I think Chandler Gathe won MMA fighting because I think I had Volkortega above that, but, uh, all right, let's, uh, let's rip through these prelims. Oh, easy game. I have like one note on any of the things I have action down on. So it should be simple. Mine are very compact as well. So, like, it's just time to just do the damn thing on the prelims. Let's kick it off.

Men's Featherweight out. Derek Menner, plus 175, Shiley Ann Nordenbeka, minus 205, over under set a two and a half, over plus 105, under minus 135. Pitch me. I don't have anything here, so pitch me. It's a story I'd like to tell through statistics. Okay, so Derek Miner. Numbers don't lie.

numbers never lied to me. I can tell you that much. Derek Menner, 26 professional wins. 22 of them coming by submission. 13 of his last 14 are by submission. Nordenbeka, 10 professional losses. Six of those coming by way of submission. Minner, 72% take down accuracy.

Pretty good. Nordenbeka, 40%. Take down defense. Not too great there. Stick with me. Minner, 2.8 sub attempts per 15 minutes. Yeah, that's good for most in featherweight history. So win or lose, winner lose. I just want to feel alive. We're going to get a shot at this. Like, my heart's going to be beaten. And I think in the first round, this thing is as live as live gets. Derek Minter by submission plus 300. I'm ready to be hurt again. It's only been six days. No, not even. It's only been three days since Jared Van dera didn't even attempt one single take down. We almost got the judo throw.

Real ones know. I was like, I know. It was so much. Real ones, no, we almost saw the judo throw. My whole world lit up for a split second before it immediately failed. I'm ready to be hurt again. I'm ready to be hurt again three weeks in a row. Barlow, he almost had it.

Jared van dera, the judo throw lit up my life for the, that split second, I was like, oh my God, we almost had it. Because it was a wrap if he lands that judo throw. And now we're back. Derek Minter plus 300. It's the numbers game. I don't have a bet down. You've kind of sold me to take this journey with you.

Also, while you were talking, part of me is like, I should really just Castanza this and go K.O. It feels like the least possible outcome is that Miner. That dude does not win by KEO. That would actually be a great Kastanza. Kind of feels like I should Kastanza. But I don't want a Kstanza against your bet. That is not the spirit of this show, our friendship, or anything like that.

I love that. I may ride with you. I'm not there yet, but the numbers tell a great story. I'm just saying it's already down to plus 275. So the train's a move, and I took it at plus 300. Derek Minter by K.O. plus 1,000. And I honestly feel like. Such a good Kstanza.

I can't do it. I honestly feel like it should be more. I feel like it should be more. I think he has one win by K.O. in his entire career. I shouldn't do it. I'm not going to do it, but if next week had a 281, he ends up with a K.O. Victory, I'm going to come on and be like, this is the saddest I've ever been in my MMA K.

You're going to feel like I felt with Romo de Lute, but five times worse. Yep, exactly. And you know if he gets a K.O. It's going to be one where he's like, hit, hit, hit off the top. He's going to have top control, and then he's going to go for the choke, and then he's going to hit and hit and hit. go for the choke and like we're both going to be like you know like there's no way he's just going just like blast don't know back like there's no shot uh so there it is I'm also on the under

two and a half point three five on the sub point six five on the under just a just a unit of wrist not getting too crazy here because a double hitter will be real nice stand the prelims love it love the prelim hitters uh all right next up is a women's flyway bout. Sorry, I lost the Tapology page there for a second. It is Miranda Maverick going up against Shauna Young. Right now, Miranda Maverick can be had for minus 600 young coming back at plus 450. The biggest favorite on the card.

Overrunner said a two and a half, over minus 120, under minus 110. I don't have a ton to say with this one. Maravitt. Maverick choked her out, Young, that being, in the first round, just a few short years ago back in 2019. Miranda Maverick, she's only 25 now. I think she's continuing to improve. You think she's not worse than when she already submitted her?

Yeah, I don't think she's worse. I think she's just improving Shannon Young. Maybe she's improved. But, I mean, since she got to the UFC, she's one and three. She's been choked out. She's been knocked out and she's been 3026 by Macy Chazahn. I don't know what in tape study, what in, statistical analysis, what in historical analysis could get you to place a bet on young.

The Kostanza theory is the only thing I can think. I don't even want a Kastanza this one. She struggles mightily with wrestlers. And all right, here's the one pause that gives me. I was looking at Miranda Maverick's Twitter. She tweeted something about practicing Muay and then someone like tweeted at her and was like, excited to see the moitai been working on. and she retweeted that.

So if we come out here and we get Miranda Moytai Maverick, then there's a world this goes south. But for me, I'm on Miranda Maverick inside the distance. I also use her as a parlay piece, parlayer up with a couple 281 fighters. It's an all-women's MMA parlay. Actually, Jailton was originally in it, but it's also Aaron Blanchfield and Zhang Wai Lee.

Also. I might feel that. Please, please. Hop on the bandwagon with me. I also have Miranda Maverick. I thought this was a short change line on bet online. The minus three and a half, the point spread. Oh, love point spreads.

It's a good bet. I like that bet a lot. Minus 2.10. I was like, okay. Yeah, I mean, I think she either finishes her or dominates her to victory. So, yeah, I'm pretty exposed to Miranda Maverick, but I feel comfortable with it, with her opposition. I don't really understand the matchmaking here, but I'll hopefully capitalize from a betting standpoint. Yeah, the first thing I thought when I saw this was, I don't really know what we're doing from a matchmaking standpoint on this one.

Just doesn't quite make sense. Can I, she is the one piece of, she's the parlay leg I talked about at the top where I don't have her tied to anything. I'm probably just going to throw her in an open and flush that out as time goes on. Last time I did that absolutely punished because Piardian lost and really hurt me. But that was awesome. I was on that too. Try to try again, I guess. Can I ask you one question?

Just throwing it out there. I'd be offended if you didn't. This is a flyweight fight. The under, over under is two and a half. And it's under is minus 110. How do you feel about this flyweight fight? Since you're feeling a little questionable about the other ones, do you feel better about this?

Are we counting this as a flyweight fight? Let's call it an alternate universe flyweight under. I have Miranda Maverick inside the distance. You got ITD, okay. Yeah, plus 125. You know, I don't have a bet down on this. I just have Miranda to be an open parley piece. I think I'm going to take the under two and a half here and really stick to the flyweight under guns.

I mean, I love that and I appreciate that. And, I mean, it's the foundation of this podcast. It really is the foundation of this podcast. everything we have is is due to flyweight under so i mean i respect the the living out of that and i mean the fact that i'm just saying all this means i'm going to have to get on the ullumbeckov menes under um yeah i mean we're gonna know fast how this fight's gonna go like you just dump her down and just do your thing like if she's coming to this this is a very easy one that's what i'm saying this is very

coach like to call if you like if you got the coaches in the back like you got to just be like miranda yeah i know we've been working more tight let's let's save that for the next time out we know what to do here it was only three years ago that you choked around the first round let's let's keep this easy let's get out of here without any damage if you're a smarter better than i would probably just bet whatever he was going to bet on this card on miranda maverick because that's just a guaranteed return it feels like a lot lot of lack of the week for sure i know when when shanna young wins uh also uh man like top top bottom 10 nickname the shanimal is that fire i don't know i don't love it we'll have to do this later we're

killing time we still have like five fights to talk about it's down there with cookie monster but uh yeah let's keep it rolling i don't want to cook monster that's true i also hate cupcake i don't food based names i'm I'm not in on. Your name game is supposed to be badass. It's supposed to incite the fear of God into your opponent. And like when you hear a cookie monster, it's just like, okay. Okay, we're moving on. All right, next up.

It is a men's bantamway, bout Mario, Batista, going up against Benito Lopez. Right now, Batista can be had for minus 295. Lopez coming back at plus 245. Yeah, I mean, I was kind of surprised. I have nothing, so sell me. I think Batista could be a solid parlay piece, man. I was kind of surprised at the line earlier this week. I took it minus 225.

I just kind of another fight that's, oh, that's a nice mug right there. We can get into that in a second. It is a very nice mug. For the people, it's a Georgia National Champions mug. Well, you're going to have to tail in this podcast with that. Yeah, just kind of weird matchmaking. Benito Lopez coming back from a 40-month layoff. Batista is already 2 in 2020.

I just kind of think Batista has edges in each department in this. I think he's got the volume advantage. I think he's more explosive, more powerful. I think if it does go to the mat, he's got the grappling advantage. I mean, he's been more active lately. There's so many unknowns when it comes to Benito Lopez. Like maybe he comes out, he's just leveled up beyond what I ever would have expected. He proves me wrong, and I look dumb and people cash a plus 245.

But I just feel like this will be one-of-way traffic in Batista gets this done either by finish or by a pretty, clear unanimous decision. I'm just going to default to you. Time crunch this week, didn't get into everything, just kind of dove into the fights that jumped out of me. This one didn't. And I was like, I don't feel like spending the time here. I already have, I already had like 10 bets on this stupid card that I shouldn't have 10 bets.

I don't need to spend time to add another. I'm okay here. So I believe everything you say, you're genius and a handsome. man and never gone wrong believing in in your analysis of fights. I wish that was actually true, but let's keep it going to a fight that immediately jumped off the page for you. It's a women's straw wabout. It's all right.

Immediately jumped off the page. Versus genufre. Right now you can have Viana at minus 140. Jinufre coming back at plus 120 over under set of two and a half over minus 270 under plus 210. What do we got here? I just want to be clear. I haven't made a bet on this one yet.

But here's the thought. I wanted to workshop a bet with you. But the truth is, I actually think your minter bet is like just way better for this bet. What is it, Pollyano Viano by sub? Yeah. That's the only way she's winning in my opinion. And that's the thing. She's the favorite, too.

She's going to win. Every time she win, she submits somebody. It's eight of her 12 career wins or by submission. all like basically all of her most recent wins are by submission she's she's not going to knock out jenufre jenufre is getting a little older uh you know she's she got tapped by k hansett polyanavionic can tap her so she's like i don't know in my head when i first looked at this i was like yeah polyovina was going to submit her and i looked at the line and i was like that feels like the most likely outcome and it's plus 300

That just seems... To me, if you're going to play Pauliana Vienna, I mean, why would you not play her by submission? Five straight wins by submission. I think it's eight of her last nine wins are by submission. Yeah, it's just like, what are you going to...

Minus 140 versus plus 300. One of those is a much better number. If she wins, like that's the way she's going to do it. I don't hate that. Maybe you take that. I'll take Miner. One of us hits it. And then we meet back up on next Wednesday. All right, I can commit to that then.

That's fine. I hadn't made the bet, but I was looking, I was like, this seems right. And then as you did the minor thing, I was like, that's just a better one. That's just a better bet than mine. But, you know, it's okay. To be honest, I don't know if either of them are good bets. Oh, they probably aren't. But we've never said we give good bets.

That is one thing that we give bets and we have fun. And, you know, we try to stay profitable, which so far, you know, we've had some success. Yeah. up on the year that's okay that's all that matters bro i'm looking for 50 units up on the year and my no one can say anything to me at that point uh where i like 48 right now see i as long as i don't lose money it's it's fine as long as i am above the the negative money threshold because i had a great amount of fun with my idiotic bets so really i'm gaining value fun value so i'm actually with you there if i'm up zero point zero one units uh it's a good deal

year because I made money gambling on fighting. But because I've had a successful run this year and it's November and I'm up 47 units, you know, I've moved your own goalposts. Yeah, I need to get to 50. I want that 50 so, you know, I can put it on the resume, you know, ultimate goal. I eventually get to all time plus 100 units and then I just retire from this game and you never see me again. You've been there, done that. Now you're on to the next thing. You know how you can get to that, that that vaunted plus 150 or plus 50 unit number what's that you can keep adding those flyweight unders yeah yeah it's uh carlos candelario against jake hadley uh right now hadley pretty big favor you can get them for minus 255 uh candelario coming back at plus two 15 over under

minus two 15 for the over under two and a half plus 175 plus that's a big number i don't know Connor, I don't know, look, you told me we had to get into this later, tell you how it's going to happen. Before I do that, let me, I'm going to tell you how it's happened. But first, let me just point out, we've changed the game with flyweight under's. People know it. And a lot of the recent ones we've had to bet, you're not getting plus numbers even. It's minus 120, minus 140.

We're getting one and a halfs now. Yeah, one and a half's even. You know, it's just, and those numbers hurt when you're not cashing out that when Mahama Mikhailov doesn't cash it out because he goes to decision, you know, as a minus 140 to hit that under, that one feels bad. But you know what feels great? Plus 175, baby. It's nice.

Back to the big numbers because you just have to have faith. You have faith in the process, in the science of it all. Jake Hadley, I know that man goes to a lot of decisions. Carlos Condolario, I know that man goes to a lot of decisions. Oh, yeah, the condolario goes to a lot. So many decisions, never been finished. I understand this. Neither of them have ever been.

Yeah, I know, but that just means they're due. Isn't that how this works? That's a good point. I can't argue that. That's a good point. They are due. More importantly, Hadley is just a good all-around fighter. I think we're going to get some scrambles in this one.

You know, maybe he just locks up a rear naked and a transition. Maybe it's a guillotine. Either way, I am trusting in the process. Three flyweight fights on the, this card. I'm on the under and all of them. And, you know, we'll see where the chips, where the chips fall come Sunday. But I believe. All right, man, I'm going to believe with you. I'm going to, I'm going to cheer for this. And I think I'm going to actually take the Tagir one. Here's what I'll say. If we don't hit any of them this week, we may have to circle back around

and reevaluate where we're at on flyweight unders. But I believe this week is going to, you know, we've stumbled a couple recently. I think this is going to get us back on track in a big, big way. Yeah, I've kind of shifted from like a must play every single one to a, I have to at least look into that. Maybe that's a more reasonable way to go about things, but I'm not a reasonable man. All right. Flywood-Hundee, you guys know what it is.

Let's get to the last fight that we're going to talk about. I'm so glad I put this fight on you. Man, I'm glad you did too. This is definitely when it needs breaking down. It's a women's Bantamway about. Vidal versus Pasquale. I'm not even going to, you know, get all into this. Right now you can get Vidal, minus 140 Pasquale plus 120.

Pasquale seems to be the darling dog of the week. Tell me you're on her. Oh, no, I'm not on her at all. Let's go. This is a horrible bet. It's probably the stupidest bet I've made in a long time. Great way to start the night. I do like to have action on the first night of the fight.

I feel like it helps you break the seal. You know, it's like... First night of the fight. for sure. It's like when you go to Vegas, you just walk in, you throw, you know, five, ten bucks down on red or black. Just see how the weekend's going to go. Yeah, break the seal.

You just got to break the seal just to get a temperature gauge on what the weekend's going to go. So I do like that. I think Ramona Pascal is just not good at fighting. I literally looked at this and was like, I don't know. She's bad. So, Tumvir's not great, but she's not. awful, I don't think. It's like,

that's it. That's the entirety of the breakdown is I think Rospascual is very not good at fighting. And so I'm just against her. All right. Enough said. You're on by now. No more breakdown than

that. I wanted to have a bet on the opener. I think she's bad. That's all I got. I salute you and I support you in your endeavor in this, in this opener here. It should be a good one. For me, my bets. Marina Rodriguez money line. Daniel Rodriguez by decision. Miranda Maverick minus three and a half. Miranda Maverick inside the distance. Mario Batista money line. Teguil and Bekhov money line. Derek Minner by sub. And then Minner, Nordenbeka, under two and a half. And then the classic, the patent did over one and a half

parlay. Rodriguez Magni. Madsen Dawson, Rodriguez-Lemos. go over one and a half that that pays out at plus 107 just took that while we were on the show so those are my bets what what's the lineup looking like for you i'm on marina rodriguez minus 210 dania rodriguez minus 105 i think i'm gonna end i think i just have to i'm forced to parlay them up that pays like plus 190 looking at it uh i'm gonna take uh sherman preesian over two and a half it's a heavy weight over you always do it plus one 30 I'm on Chase Sherman, minus 130. Ullum Bekhov Maness under 2.5 plus 160, flyweight unders.

Let's keep that train rolling, baby. Tagir Ullumbeckov straight, minus 215, Grant Dawson straight, minus 215, Pollyanna Viano by sub plus 300, Candelario Hadley under 2.5, plus 170. Tamirs Vidal, minus 140. Then I've also got a jumped on the Maverick Young under 2.5, minus 110. I got Miranda Maverick as a floating parlay piece, leaving a three-legged parlay open. I'll probably fill that up with some 281 stuff. I like the one you threw out for Wiley and what was the other one?

Aaron Blanchfield. Yeah, I may end up just straight stone copying you. I love that. I love that. Yeah. And then my last one, I also have a parlay. I've got the Rodriguez over one and a half parlay, Rodriguez Limosch over one and a half, and Magny Rodriguez over one and a half. When those lines drop, I'll parlay him up and we'll be cooking

with gas, baby. You mentioned looking for a parlay piece. Could I interest you in the University of Georgia money line minus 290? No. I just don't, I don't like betting on Georgia games because I'm way too emotionally invested. I think I'm going to Athens on Saturday. So I took, I literally the minute that Tennessee beat Bama, I put in my time off request for the Tennessee. It was like, hell yeah. To text and see it was like, hey, man, I'm not working this day, just letting you know before. And he was like, why. I was like, yeah, it's Tennessee game.

It's in Athens. Yeah. It's actually the number one team in the country coming to us, Tennessee, getting the number one ranking last night with the CSP rankings. I'm not confident that that seems right. but I saw that. I was like, so, you know,

it's great, we'll take it from them. I was going to say, the good news is it'll just get settled this weekend. My parents, season ticket holders, they'll be in attendance, should be just electric.

I'm having people over at the Cribbo, pizzas. Unfortunately, UFC Apex 64 is going to have to be on a side TV. I'm going to really have to pocket the old degenerate stuff. I mean, wow. You're just going to have to check the DK account the next morning. I love that.

Yeah, I mean, when Derek Minter is going for his submission in the first round, I'm going to have to be like, oh, this interesting fight over here. I'm not going to be like, please, please, Joe, go, go, tap, tap. I'm going to have to really keep it even keeled in front of my friends that aren't into fighting and aren't into being a degenerate better. So it should be fun, though, man. I can't wait for it. If you don't watch college football, 3.30, Eastern time, CBS.

I highly advise you tune into this. this incredibly high level SEC football in front of 92,000 people. Gonna be sick, gonna be raucous, gonna be rocking. 92,000 of my closest friends, baby. There it is, the classic saying.

Everyone loves it. Classic saying. As Dana White says, we are revved and ready to go. That'll be Saturday. Easily the high end of this weekend, considering this is the fight card. Listen,

dude, if my second TV busted out, I don't even know if I'd get the iPad out for APEC, 64. Nah, I'm lying. I actually would. I would get the iPad out. I'm just going to have my phone and I'll go to m.mapine.com. Great website. Keep up with the stuff while I'm watching us. Absolutely curb, stomp Tennessee into the ground. Oh, please. That would be, God, that would make my, I could have a bad week. On our way, baby, to back to back. Yeah, I was going to say, I need a back to back mug.

I have that, a very similar mug at my house. I love drinking out of it almost every morning. But that's UFC Apex 64, Rodrigo's Lemos. Maybe we'll get a strawweight, a new strawweight title contender out of this. Maybe we can get Marina a title shot next year. That's to be seeing. She's going to have to win on Saturday. Enjoy the weekend. Go dogs.

Enjoy the card. Best of luck on your bets. We'll see you next week for 281, baby. Love you guys.