MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: UFC Vegas 89 And The Return Of Rose Namajunas, Plus Bellator Belfast Bets

Episode Date: March 20, 2024

For the second week in a row, the UFC is back in the world's most famous APEX. After the entirely forgettable UFC Vegas 88, the world's leading MMA promotion returns to its home base for UFC Vegas 89 as the company continues the march onward towards UFC 300. But it's not just UFC this weekend as Bellator makes its long-awaited return under new ownership, with Bellator Belfast, and of course the No Bets Barred boys are here with a full breakdown of this MMA doubleheader. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew open the show lamenting the state of APEX cards and the negative effect they have on the bank account, before diving into UFC Vegas 89 and Bellator Belfast. Can Rose Namajunas insert herself into the flyweight title picture on Saturday? Is it Jeremy Kennedy's time to shine against Patricio Pitbull? And how many gimmick parlays is too many gimmick parlays for one weekend? All this and more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 82 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Defenders and cybersecurity are always there when we need them. They should get a parade every time they block a novel threat and have streets. sandwiches and babies named in their honor. But most of all, they deserve AI cybersecurity that can stop novel threats before they become breaches across email, clouds, networks, and more.

DarkTrace is the cybersecurity defenders deserve and the one they need to defend beyond. Visit darktrace.com forward slash defenders for more information. We are back. Another edition of No Betts Bar, this time. another stone on the path to UFC Apex 100. This time it will be Rosemanni Unis taking on Amanda Hebus in the main event. Jed, how we doing, man? Another week, another Apex card. Feels good, man.

Well, it's pumped. I mean, who isn't excited about this? Just another one. You want to answer that honestly? You know, I think everyone, there are no redeeming features to this Saturday's card. We're going to shoot you straight here, folks. Let's shoot straight. Let's shoot straight.

I mean, even last week's card, we were about halfway through it. I was like, p.m., man, this card kind of sucks. And yeah, we're back with another week for it. This fight card is substantially worse than last weeks, and it happens starting at 10 p.m. Eastern. That is the worst part about it. You're telling me I'm going to be watching Carl Williams and Justin Toff in a home main event at like 1230 Eastern in the apex?

No, no, kind of the worst part is I'm working this. Last week I was not. I have fortunately not worked most of the apex cards this week, so I haven't watched them live. I've gone, maybe have turned them on or had them on the background. Like last week, I saw a lot of the stuff, but I checked back up on the rest of it after the fact. Not this time, baby.

I'm right until 3 a.m. or whatever on Godly hour. I'm going to be really up front with you and everybody listening. This is 1,000%. This isn't even making a TV. This might not even make the iPad on the coffee table. This might just be my phone on the armrest type deal here. We're getting the first weekend of March madness. There is no way that this is taking up any real estate on a television.

This is going to be side eye watching when a fight comes on that I have a bet on. Then I'll really lock in. but this will be real casual watching for me. Fortunately, Connor, if you like our millions of listeners at home feel this way, which I'm sure everyone kind of does, you don't have to watch it. You can go to this website. It's terrific websites called mhmapfiting.com. We're going to have all the important highlights up.

We're going to have a live blogger the main event. You're going to get to see all the relevant things that happen. And you can ingest that on your timeline instead of on the UFC on ESPN Plus's timeline. So I, you know, I say this a lot lately, particularly with these apex cards. If you got nothing else to do, hey, fights are fights, man. I totally get it. I'm not trying to yuck anybody's yum.

But you got a significant other who's complaining, ah, you spend every Saturday with the fellas watching fights. Maybe take this one off. Yeah, this is a good one. Take out. Yeah. Listen, man, fights are fights. I love watching fights.

Love betting on fights. That's why we're here. If you're still listening to this, you're looking to talk fights to bet on fights. We understand the game here. It's just the quality of the card and the fact you parlay that with it being at the apex. I had someone on Twitter approached me last week when I was like, I took a shot at the apex and they were like, why are you complaining? Like, we now get fights almost every weekend because of the apex.

And I just had to drop a little knowledge on them. The UFC is doing the exact same number of events with the exact same number of yearly fights as they were in 2019 before the apex was ever built. Like, the apex is not letting them achieve this number of fights. They would be doing it anyway, but they would just be doing it in arenas and likely have better quality of cards as well. Yeah, it's a cost-controlled achieving this number of fights. And I got to tell you, man, if you like that fellow, congratulations.

Welcome to MMA. I'm glad to have you. We always love to see the numbers grow. The UFC is saving money. There are fights every week, money. There are fights every week of the year except for maybe Christmas. But, I mean, if you go to M.A.Fighton.com, every Friday morning, the wonderful Alexander K. Lee has basically a roundup of the coolest regional highlights.

Those highlights come from places, and those places you can watch them. Go hit up Kipos on Twitter. He always has a schedule. There are always fights on. The question is not, are there fights? The question is, are there good fights? And this weekend, we're not, though, Connor, being real negative.

Let's, let's be a little positive here, Connor. A lot of negativity. We're just, we're just negativity dumping right now. Look, you know what they say? We're paying the price for $98, $99, and $300. We're paying the price right now and I'm okay with it. Yeah, again, I'm fine with it. We talked about this last week.

But on a totally unrelated note, and a bit of a positive manner, we got a double action of fights this weekend. We got Friday fights. of Bellator and those flights are on HBO, baby. That's a big thing. They're technically on Max.

They are technically on Macs. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'll, I got a couple of things I want to throw out to you about about Bellator Belfast because there are a couple interesting spots. There's a couple of things I want to throw out to you this week. This is more of a discussion as rather it is just a holistic dumping of bets here. Okay.

I'm excited to hear it. I have one thing I want to throw out and it's just this. Bellator Belfast is straight up a better card than the UFC is offering. Man. All right. So I'm excited for Kennedy and Pitbull. I am looking forward to the Aaron-Jeffrey fight against Fabian Edwards. The Luke Trainor-Grant-Neil fight is great as well.

One more decent fight on the car. hard. What are we looking at? James Gallagher. Gallagher Ego is pretty solid little scrap. Yeah, not bad. That's four good fights, which is one more than I count on the UFC's fight card. It does have the classic Bellator quality.

You're getting a two and two versus two and three, a three and oh. Yeah, you know, they've got to beef up the Irish numbers for the Belfast and I get it. Also, I mean, looks like at least at this point in time fewer fights than the UFC card as well. like just it's on HBO Max that'll be fun never watch that i think it's at noon eastern noon i mean that would make sense being in belfast noon eastern baby a lot of powerful things happening for old belly on friday so uh i i do have a couple of bets on that card as well so we can get that to that at the end but enough negativity connor because also when we're negative it allows us to go longer and you and i don't want to be here forever talking about this fight card because no one wants to hear us

talking about this fight card for an hour and a half i got places to be i got people to see i'll tell you that much uh you know big big things going on let's start ufc apex 89 let's start with the main event uh and it's a women's flyway bout amanda heva's taking on rose namunis we do have to cover how did you do last week because i lost i lost again i mean that is that's that's not one since mexico city have not one since mexico city yes last week i was like watching it at as Christian Rodriguez and Isaac Dolgarian just put a stake through my heart of going to a decision. Meanwhile, recording 2-10-8s,

both of them being very close to getting finishes. And I was just like, I can't stand betting on these apex cards. Then the Brian Battle stuff, he was looking so great, then the eye poke. I mean, it was just, I wasn't feeling great going into it and I ended up losing. Yeah, it was a tough week as well. I brought that up for two reasons.

One, because I as well lost, and I noticed on the MMA hour, you're down eight and a little bit of change. You and I are going to race to the bottom, baby. I am down eight units and a little bit of change for the year. I love it. I love it. We're on an even playing field. We're doing great. proud of us.

I'm all right with it. I'm all right with it. As I said to you, this is a game with a lot of variance in it. It's losing streaks are guaranteed. I was on a bad one last year. bad one. So I am confident that the ship will ride itself. I mean, I've been doing this now since September of 2021. So we're coming up on, you know, two and a half, three years of this. I feel all right. I don't know if the ship's going to get righted this weekend. This is definitely,

if I am not on a show where we talk about betting and I didn't host a podcast about Ruma betting, this is definitely a card that I would look at and be like, they might just sit this one out. That's the second reason I brought up as we were talking about yesterday. I was like, I'm not going to have any bets. I'm just getting burned on these apex cards. I've got to try and want to get back into the black. We need to do it. And somehow I've ended up with 10 bets this weekend.

10. 10 bets. It's with Bellator as well. But yes. 10 bets this weekend. I am sitting on five with the potential to add one more. Yeah, because you're smarter than I am. You're going to dig yourself out of this whole much faster than I am.

Let's get into it. Let's get into it because there are a couple of things I want to talk. about main event Amanda Heba's Rosamai Yunis. Right now, currently, this fight is lined as Rosamai Yunis, a massive favorite. Minus 25, Heba's coming back, plus 200. Yesterday, I saw Rosamma Unis get as big of a favorite as minus 300. That's obviously come back in. When I was writing my notes doing the research, I asked is minus 210 too wide. Now minus 245. Two questions opposed to you. Is minus 245 too wide?

Is minus 180 a fight does not go to a decision too wide? Ooh, the fight does not go to a decision is interesting. I don't think the minus 210 is too wide. Excuse me. I like Amanda Heva's very much just as a fighter. She's obviously a very fun fighter. And you can never feel all the way confident with Rosnami Unis, right?

Like, there are times when she'll show up like she did against Carlos Barza and, you know, that gets baked into the price. That being said, I know that her flyway debut was not what many hoped, you know, many anticipated thought instant title contender. I still think that she is a very quality fighter and I think we are getting a reduced price because of sort of the uncertainty around her. when Amanda Hebas has pretty consistently just lost to the best fighters she's faced, right? You know, like, she's, when she goes into the A, A minus B plus tier of fighters,

the Macy Barber, Caitlin Chakians, uh, mean, Hadriguez, like they, they just beat her and she is a really good litmus test as far as that. Maybe Rose isn't that, you know, I guess, I guess it's possible that it flyweight, that's not where Rose is,

but Rose also had a very, competitive fight with Manafior who I know your girl obviously a big manor I think we were both I was on Monon I feel like you were on Monon as well I definitely was on but a super competitive fight in her debut and manon's about to fight next week in a title eliminator so I don't think losing a competitive fight to someone much bigger than her is that big a deal and and the other side of this as well um he boss is not going to be much bigger than her too. You know, Kibas also has, is a former straw weight, you know, has bounced around a little bit. I just think the disadvantages Rose had heading into the fight against Manon aren't there at all.

She's a little more acclimated. I'm expecting us to get quality Thug Rose and also Thug Rose's best nickname on the card, rocking Thug Rose in the main event. I have her, last week I had Tiago Moises in an open parlay. I just, I closed it out with Rose this. week on the other side of it. When you say open parlay, like, are you, on your book, are you able to, like, bet Tiago Moiseszzez as a parlay piece and then the next week add Rose in? Yeah, you can add in, you have to, you have to pick how many spots you're going to do it. So my book will allow you to go one and then two, two or three additional open, like you

have one, two or three additional open spots to fill in later. so I just didn't open one and left it till this week and I just plugged in Rose. I got her at bad price, you know, but closed it out. If Rose wins, I'll be paying out minus 130 is the total end of the parlay, basically. That's an interesting tool. I've never been able to have that in any of my books. Yeah, man, I don't know. I mean, I know Rose heard her hand in the first round, and I know she was competitive with Fioro,

but minus 2.45, I just don't, I just don't think I'm, I'm going to get around to that. Another line, another line that's very interesting to me here, rose by K.O. plus 110. One finish in the last seven years for her. True. He was, like all of her losses are by knockout, I want to say. Yeah, I think three of four. So I guess, oh, except for Chukagin, but it's Chukagin. It's death tax is Chuketian by decision, baby. That's how that rocks.

I don't hate the inside the distance, though. Like, when you brought that up earlier, I can see it particularly five rounds. There's a lot more opportunity. Hebas is not the most defensively sound fighter on the feet. I do think if Rose is winning this fight, I do think it's largely just a striking affair. She has a more diverse striking skill set, just better technically. I wouldn't, I mean, I don't know. I don't know if I want to.

I'm trying to get away from prop bets just in general. Like a couple of them, I will talk about it in the co-main event. I've just been getting burned so bad on them this year of like, oh, I think that this will go. It's not like I could just take the worst, you know, the worst line and straight up options and I'd be doing a lot better this year. So I don't know how I feel about taking that prop. Yeah, it's funny you mentioned that.

Props are actually my worst bets over the last year and some change. down 9.82 units on props. You want to know what my best is? Parles. Parles, I'm up 26 units. I mean... That's actually hilarious. I need...

We need you to go back and in the spreadsheet figure out how many of those were the Seabourke special parlayes, the over one and a half parley is. Because those feel like they hit at an 88% clip rate, you know? Man, you want to know what's funny. I was actually killing the prop market

up until Bellator 300. And since then, I have just been on a steady decline on the props. They have just been costing me money. Maybe UFC 300 get you back on track, though. You know, you just had this. It's a reverse Uno card. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, straights, I'm just a little bit above even.

Very interesting, though. Very interesting. Yeah, I guess I'm with you. I need to get away from props. One that stuck out to me was he was by decision at plus 600. that felt just largely, largely priced. I don't know if I'm going to play it, but that did just feel like an interesting number to me.

That's a big number. Like that's a big number for like she's not like the craziest finager. And Rose is pretty durable. Right now what I have is the over one and a half minus 350. Seven of Hebas's last nine, Rose, 10 of her last 13. I feel this goes over the one and a half. And then the fight goes to a decision. decision plus 150.

You know, women's flyweight fight, Rose has their ability. Are you coming around? Yeah. Yeah, I think fight goes to a decision is what I, is what I'll play here. And just leave it at that. Hey, look, that's a reasonable way.

Also, just for the sake of it, I went back, looked at this year, I am a robust, one in nine on prop bets. Wow, holy shit, that's bad. Too scamrop by decision is the only one of them that has landed. Over the last year and a half, I am 112 and 125. Man, my parlay record is 71 and 52.

I am like shockingly, I am surprised by that. Parlay more. That's what I'm saying. I'm moving entirely away from props. Unless it's something like Matush scamrott by decision. Because I have been getting burned. Jack Della by decision burned. It's like a bunch of Danny Gaye by decision, Knox Mountain four seconds.

Okay, so you're talking like method props. Yeah, method props, not over-unders. I'm doing okay on over-unders. All right. I think that's enough sale on the main event. I mean, we don't have much else to talk about this car, but yeah, sure. Yeah, my official pick is going to be Heavis by decision. That's my pick

That's your official pick You should definitely throw at least a quarter of unit On plus six hundo That's a good number That's what's getting me to make that official pick Is that it's plus 600 That's true Like rose by KO plus 110

He was by decision plus 600 I don't know My official pick will be rose by KO But I will not be betting that I'll just put Rose in the parley Closer down Let's stay away from From method of victory parley

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Go to Betterment.com to learn more. That's B-E-T-E-R-M-E-N-T-com. Investing involves risk, performance not guaranteed. Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two,

ghosts in the machine. Available now, only from Audible. All right, next up, co-made event. Oh, what I mean? Fighting out of Atlanta. Carl Williams taking on. Justin Tafa, the Tafa swap.

Justin steps in for junior after junior stepped in for Justin. it is a whole ordeal. And right now you can get our man from the A fighting out of the A. Carl Williams minus 180, Justin Taffa plus 150. To me, this is just about as binary as it gets. I feel like this is Taffa knocking him out earlier. Carl Williams just making it a slog fest and pushing this thing late.

Tava has stuffed all three takedowns attempted on him over the course of his illustrious UFC career. going to assume there's going to be more than three takedowns attempted unless Carl just gets iced and that's that that's pretty much it no bet for me here uh i'm on Carl Williams one rep in the A my old gym got to do it uh two I actually even outside of that I would like this bet in general the thing I struggle with in the co-main was uh Carl Williams straight and minus 175 is the price I got him at um that is what I ended up taking but I looked long and hard and I had it punched in

and I just didn't click in her instead on doing Carl Williams by decision. It's like plus 200. So you're getting a little bit... Right back for the props. Love it. That's why I didn't do it though, because you get a little bit extra. And, you know,

six of Williams' nine career wins have been by decision. I think he is going to get a bunch of takedowns on whichever top of this is. Yeah, he's 100% takedown defense. It's three shots from all bad fighters. Carl Williams much better at doing this. Maybe gas is late and that's a problem, but I just, I think this fight will go Carl Williams's way. And Tava has been real tough,

but I'm just so terrified of the method of victory props that instead of getting the plus 200, I'll just take, you know, my 60 bucks on a plus on a minus 175 and and bet that. So I'm on Carl. There it is. Carl win. Got to wrap the A. We roll on, Ed, Shabazzian taking on AJ Dobson. Right now you can get Shabazzian. Minus 192, Dobson coming back at plus 160. Feels like a step down for Edmund. But I don't know, minus 200.

He's lost four or five. He also has been known to gas out. I feel like if I'm making a pick, it's going to be Edmund by K.O., but AJ Dobson's never been finished. This is just another fight that I'm just staying away from. Yep. If I'm making a pick, like you, I would pick Shabasian. But he's just in that zone, man. I'm never going to put money on him.

Like we talked about last week with Kenny Nunchucks and people being like, Kenny in Zichu and a parlay. I don't know what you people are talking about. I am not trying to put that man in a parley. And then the minus 500 gets blown up. Yeah. That Shabazian to meet to a T. I'm just not going to bet on him even if I think he's going to win a fight.

Yeah, man, I mean, a lot of this apex betting is just like avoiding non-quality fighters. Yeah, just avoid the traps. That's stuff to do sometimes. All right, we keep it rolling. I mean, this is the hotly debated, hotly discussed. MMA Twitter fight of the week. Peyton Talbot taken on Cameron. One of the three good fights in the card.

I'm looking forward to this one. It's going to be good. Two good prospects. Minus 148 Talbot. Simon coming back at plus 124. Yeah, like should be a good scrap. Both these guys are fairly high volume. From Cameron Simon, I go back and watch the Aguirre fight and definitely realize that I should lean on my wrestling.

I mean, Talbot was taken down and controlled pretty much the entire round. So I feel like if Simon goes to the offense of wrestling, he can have success. In terms of a side, I like, I don't really know who to be confident on here. Yeah, I agree that that would be the path forward for Simon, but Talbot's wrong. I'm a voice. He was one of my prospects to watch from the most recent season. I've been backing them up and down. They have been delivering.

Who was it last week? I can't even remember who was all on that fucking dog shit card last week. Give me a second while I pull this up. Remember who? Oh, Danny Silva. It was Danny Silva. Shout out D'S KATHLEEN. He was one of my boys to watch.

We got a few contenders series dudes. Talbot was one of the best prospects on this most recent season. I like Simon. I think this fight's going to be a good little scrap, but I'm back on my boy. All right. Yeah, I am going with the over one and a half parlaying that with the Nama Yunus one. Simon, five of the last six. Talbot, six of seven in his career.

So, yeah, I feel like this one goes a little bit longer. All right. Next stop. Speaking of MMA Twitter, Billy Q, the squid, getting in there against Yusuf Zalal. Right now, Billy Quintillo, your favorite coming in, minus 148, Zal, plus 124. Yeah, so Zalal stepping in on short notice. I feel like this is a decent matchup for Billy Q, volume pressure, pace. I think he can even mix in takedowns.

I feel like he just gets this done by decision. He just outpoints Zalai. ball. I mean, Zalelal does not throw a ton. He has no finishes in seven UFC fights. I mean, yeah, I know that he's on a winning streak right now. One of those was he did a MMA fight, a boxing and a kickboxing match all in one night. He's definitely not fighting the level of competition that he was in the UFC. Did not have a good end to his UFC run. I like this matchup for Billy Q. So do I. And given the kind of the nature of it, the short-noticed nature. I'm a little surprised to Q's this low.

He's just particularly because he's popular too, not even outside of his thing. Just a really popular dude, hell of a fun fighter. I think the style matchup is pretty decent, like you said, Zul. Does not have the greatest UFC run now? I fought some dudes in there. You know, he fought Elliot Tepuria. But, you know, the win streak he's on right now,

not as impressive. Billy Q. I mean, like I said earlier in the evening, Billy Q's losing the top shelf opposition. You know, he's losing to Edson Barbosus, Shane Burgos. He's not losing the dues like you uses for Zolol. So I'm on Billy Q. I am as well.

Let's keep it rolling. Luis Pahalo going up against Fernando Padilla. Right now, Luis, your underdog at Playa. Plus 140. Padilla coming back, minus 166. I mean, this should be a pretty good fight, too. I mean, this thing should be fun. Luis Paolo is fairly wild. Almost only wins by knockout, comes forward, throws big shots.

Super aggressive. Yeah, Padilla, I mean, he's got a reach advantage, probably the more technically sound guy, but he's got a solid chin or been knocked out. So, yeah, I feel like it's a fun fight. I will not have a bet on it. Puello was not one of my top-tier prospects to watch. watch, but he's a guy who I think can get into USC make some noise.

And more importantly, just be a super fun action fighter. The way he goes about his business is chaos. And I'm excited to see him fight. So I decided to throw back when I didn't realize I was going to end up with 10 bets. It's like, ah, I want to try and get this number up to something. I'll throw one on a dude I kind of like. And then I ended up with another four bets after that. And I was like, oh, well, suddenly I have 10.

So I would not recommend anyone follow, but I'm on. All right, let's move to the prelims, Trey Ogden, taking on Kurt Halleba. Right now, Trey Ogden is your favorite at minus 155, Holliba coming back at plus 130. This is one of the things that I wanted to talk to you about. I was doing some research, and I was on Miles Johns Instagram, and I came across a picture. It appears that Miles Johns and Trey Ogden trained together.

multiple pictures posted together. So I wanted to throw out there two paths. The red pill, the blue pill, you take your pick on which one you want to do, you know. I won't give you the whole Morpheus speech. But option A is the anti-Tuff parlay. Triagin's taking on Kurt Hollaba, obviously, from this past season of Tough. Miles Johnson's taking on Cody Gibson, a finalist in this past season of Tough. or you take option B, the tough dogs parlay,

or you just take them as straights because they are dogs. But you've got two great contestants from this past season of tough representing both at underdog price, both right around plus 130. I'm ashamed of myself that I didn't see this gimmick out there. I mean, it was staring me right in the face. And I got a gimmick for you on that Bellator card. If you haven't seen it yet, it's staring us right in the face.

This one missed. I didn't, you know, I'm not a big tough guy. Despite, you know, co-hosting Tough Hang for one episode, just I wasn't. I honestly, I actually might have watched Kurt Holliba. Kurt Holla was great, man. Kurt Hauble is great. I might have watched his episode for the one thing. And I just missed this.

if you're going to do it, I would say you got to go with not the underdog parlay. If you want to do them separately, that may be one thing. But I mostly just didn't want any part of either of those fights. And now I'm having to reckon with myself, do I just live a gimmick? Despite my notes on both fights being like, nope, just nope. I actually don't mind either of them as dogs. I like, I kind of like the matchups and I like the way that they fight. I mean, Kurt Holliba just comes in like a madman.

He has not won a fight by decision since 2015. Like he, like, exclusively finish his fights, finished all of his fights on tough and the season finale. Ogden really doesn't have much finishing capability. Yeah, he has a lot of subs, but I don't think he's going to sub-Curt, who's a BJJ Blackbell, whereas Ogden has been. been subbed three times. I wouldn't be surprised if Hala subbed them here. Got gotten gillied twice. And then Cody Gibson, kind of the same thing. Miles John's coming in on short notice. He's never

really had great cardio. We've seen him get broken in fights, especially that Castanato one. And Cody Gibson is sort of the style of fighter that will do that to you, just unrelenting pace, just always coming forward, makes it a war. Plus, on top of that, he's getting older. He took to Twitter this week. I was like, I see all bitching about the Apex cards. I'm going to turn it up in my fight. I can guarantee you that. He's likely only got a couple more into this, and I don't like it.

He's likely only got a couple more shots of this thing. Like he's one and four in his UFC career right now. Feel like he's going to be going for it all this weekend. He's looking for that 50 G's. He's looking for that performance of the night. He's looking to reassure that contract, get a finish. I think I'm riding with the tough dogs, man. You've talked me into this as a gimmick parley, and I hate you.

I think I'm riding with the tough dogs. Are you going to parlay them, or you're just going to run them straight? I'm a parlay. I'm a parley. Tough dogs, life. I'm in. I'm in on this dumb gimmick parlay. You're talking into it.

You only need to win one if you took them as singles and you'd be easy and breezy. Now you're going to win both, but the pal out. The palis, it's exponential con. We're tough dogs, okay? We want the hard way. We want to barlay it. And these guys can become heroes. It's as plain and simple as that.

They can become heroes in my book if they get it done. All right. That was my spiel. Now you know where I'm at. Well done. Thank you. Thank you. I appreciate it.

Been practicing that in the mirror for a while. Now I have 11 bets on 12 fights. I hate you. Let's go. All right. Next up, Ricardo Ramos taking on Julian Orosa. Right now, Ramos, your favorite. Sitting at minus 1-18.

84. Julianne Rosa coming back at plus 142. Yeah, I don't have a side here, but I do have the under because it is a Julian Arosa

fight. Hamos five of his last seven have ended in round one. Arosa has been C-Oed in the first round in three straight losses, in his last three losses.

He's had some wins mixed out. He's saying, yeah. And Arosa overall, 17 of his last 22, have not gone. on the distance. Think this one's going to be fireworks. Think it probably gets done early.

Under two and a half minus 155. I'm on a Rosa here. I'm not entirely sure why this isn't just a pick-em fight. It's not like Ricardo Ramos has been this just unmitigated world beater or whatever. And most importantly, Connor, here's the thing you got to remember about Ricardo Ramos. not only did he lose to Charles Jordane. He did it in the first round. He didn't even lose to him in the third round.

Whereas Julian Arosa, not only did he beat Charles or Jordan, he did him in the third round. Wow, at his own game. He overcame the mythical third round, Jordan. Ricardo Ramos couldn't even get into the third round to lose there. He lost immediately.

I also just like Arosa's volume, like the pace he puts out immediately he is a get-or-gick our guy and i think he's got a pretty good chance here like i said i think at worst this fights a coin flip and so i just took a little dog play on erosa love it we move on uh to that miles john kota gibson fight that i was talking about could miles john's your favorite yeah i'm going with cody gibson so am i now don't mind the stab at the under either plus one 90 on the under two and a half uh uh yeah i mean i think both guys are live for a finish pretty much anywhere this fight goes if it goes to a to a decision i will not be shocked um miles johns maybe back on the sauce bring up a little bit more

that power you know ysada's gone who knows uh but i feel like it's going to be pedal to the medal for cody gibson this week i think he knows the gameplay i forget who posted it but like a reputable dude put out the numbers and was like usada for the last things 2,000 tests and tests since is like 400. And the UFC's just doing exactly the correct thing of this is fake. We're not drug testing anymore. It's fine. And you just made me think of that.

And I hope that that's true. I hope everyone's on the sauce, Connor. Me too. Let's get some superheroes out there, you know? Yeah. That's that. Let's move on. Stephen Nyhan taking on Jarno Arons right now.

Aaron's your underdog at plus 164 Big Stephen N minus 198 I've got nothing here Don't hate Jarno Arons as a dog I know he's owned two in the UFC But like he's looked he's looked decent Now he's getting a debuting guy Who's fairly heavy on the boxing

And bad I feel like he can mix it up I feel like he can cash his dog I don't have a bet but I think it's dog or pass for me. Dogger Pass is absolutely correct. Stephen Wynn was a just another guy, the bottom tier of prospects on contender series in my rankings as dudes who got contracts who I probably wouldn't have given a contract

to honestly, like if I were in charge. And my only, my only hesitation with betting John O'Rand's as a dog is he's also not great. And so just pass, just going to pass, you know. I respect it. I respect it. Next up, Montserrat Rendon taking on Daria Z. Right now, Montserrat Rendon is your underdog plus 180. Daria Z minus 218. The four zero is my man. This is women's bantam weight. This is your division. I'll let you take it from here.

This is my division. And I've done a very simple thing, Connor. It's the same thing. I've been doing 50% hit rate last week. Yeah, it didn't work out. Mason-J-Son blew the parlay up, which was tough. But, you know, like I said, it was a 78% clip in 2023. It wasn't 100. Wasn't 100. So it's still high, but you're going to take those every once in a while. But women's band-and-weight fights more often than not, they're going to the cards.

I have taken the over two and a half in this. I thought about putting it as an open parlay leg like I did last week. I was like, yeah, whatever, screw it. I'll just take it straight up. It's not a great price. I'll just take my 20 bucks and it'll be fine. So taking it. I also briefly considered a bet on Montserrat.

And then I was like, why the hell would I do that? It's just that Zelazni Kovah is like fine, but women's Banimweight is so bad. And debuting fighter who's pretty made against another fighter who's fine, this probably should be lined closer, was my thought. But I don't really want to have a dog bet on Montserrat Rendon, you know. So I passed on that particular opportunity. Yeah. Yeah, I feel you.

Next up, Igor Severino taking on Andre Lima. A couple of undefeated prospects. And right now, Lima is your favorite at minus 180 to silver coming back, plus 150. Again, I'm going to just let you take the wheel on this one. Coming off contender series, both these guys. That's your thing, man. I'll let you go. I love that this is now my thing.

It's great. Igor De Silva which is what I knew him as not Severino is like a young dude who needs to develop right like he is a solid fighter

particularly 40 is but let me see how old he is right now yeah 20 Connery's 20 years old That's young That's I mean we make a lot about We make a big big deal about 19 year old dude

why can't I think of freaking his name right now? Alarosa. Yeah, Raul Roses Jr. This is 20-year-old Igor. That being said, Andre Lima is a dude who was like Peyton Talbot in and, you know, Gene Sylvan, all these other people in the highest tier of prospects. He's a guy who I just think has a ton of potential is also, you know, young. He's 25.

But I like that potential. I think Igor to Silver needs some more. seasoning and could maybe get there. But again, he's 20. I'm on Andre Lima, of course. I thought about just parlaying him and Talbot up, but I decided screw it. I'll just play the two of them as singles because they're under minus 200 favorites. All right. We moved to the last fight on this card. The first one that will kick it off at 7 p.m. Eastern, Muhammad Usman taking on Mick Parkin. And right now, Mick Parkin is your favorite. 142.

Usman coming back at plus 120. Yeah, the pick's parking. Big Mick. Yeah, we're team Tommy Aspen all over here. No bet, but I think the old Mickey P. Train rolls on. I don't know how anyone could fault you for that. Having watched Mo Usman fight, it's just not, it's certainly not enjoyable. Shout out to him.

Shout out. I am out here for the same. of it just trying to keep heavyweight overs alive with grit and temerity. I mean, that's, this is a good one for it. And these two dudes in the UFC have been, been very inclined to find that overnumber. So I'm, I've gone with it. I don't feel great about it. Certainly, it's probably better for me if Mooseman is winning.

Seems more likely if he's going to win, it will be, uh, longer. But, you know, Mick, Mick can do it as well. I'm mostly open when we get 15 full minutes of joy. That's what I'm hoping for, Connor. I think that's what we're going to get. I think that's what we're going to get. Boarding for Flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What?

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Marshalls. We get the deals. You gift the good stuff. All right, and that's that. UFC Apex 89 in the books. Let's quickly go over some Bellator stuff here. And I just wanted to throw this one out right off the rip. You talk about gimmick parlays.

Could I interest you in the Nate Kelly, Nathan Kelly. parlay. I mean, you're going to have to lay it down a little bit, minus 266 for them parlayed together, but it just, it just feels like it's something you have to do. Buddy, of course,

you can interest me in the, in the Nathan Kelly parlay. Who did we, the Chris Duncan parlay? That was one of my most successful gimmick parlays of all time when they debuted together. Of course, Nathan Kelly.

I mean, if you, if y'all are fighting with the same name on the same card, and you're not fighting each other. I'm going to have to parlay you up. Don't care how much chalk I'm paying. Exactly. Just absolutely no reason I wouldn't parley these two gentlemen together.

So for sure, you can interest me in that. I also have a couple of other bets. I don't know if you have anything else on belly. I do have a couple ones I want to throw out to you, but let's hear what you have first. Okay. My bets are very simple as far as Bellator goes. I have nothing on the main event. I do think Corey Anderson probably wins, but I just,

I'm good not betting on 40-year-old Corey Anderson or however old he is at this point in time. I decided to take a shot on Jeremy Kennedy in the comment against Patricio Pipple, though. Look, Kennedy has been, Kennedy is quietly, maybe Canada's best fighter. People talking about who's the next Canadian guy coming through. Is it Mike Malott? Is it Jasmine Jasmine? No. The answer is, is J.

see Jeremy Kennedy, he's been doing solid work in Bellator. And this is his opportunity. Obviously, a huge big one here, big step up. Maybe not a huge step up, but Pitbull's just getting a little older. I know we all know the stat about champions when they're 36. It's not quite the same Bellator versus UFC exactly, but there's a drop off. I just, I don't think Pitbull has his fastball at all. straight losses right coming into this i maybe this might be a sucker bet because the price on kennedy is not great it's only plus 100 but i decided to take a shot here i got him at plus 120 i am on them as well that is the dogs barking hopefully we can pull it off uh that is one that i was going to ask you i have it right here in my nose jeremy kennedy as a dog and actually

on bet online right now he has moved to the favorite favorite minus 117 minus 103 a little bit of line movement there uh another one i wanted to just throw out to you i don't know erin geoffrey uh another canadian fighting uh he was a bigger underdog he has now moved to uh to minus 110 minus 120 each way uh any thoughts on that my thoughts are that i'm i'm back in fabian edwards in this one okay um i just got it at uh pick a mods I really liked how Fabian Edwards looked against maybe not our boy, but Johnny Eblen, who I think most people are very high on. Yes, when Eblen went basically super saying and finished the fight in the third grade,

but prior to that, Fabian Edwards was looking really good coming off the Musassi win, like the best run of his career, his best run of form. And I'm just not entirely sure that I'm sold on Aaron Jeffrey. Could absolutely be wrong, right? would not shock me to be wrong, but I'm sticking with the Edwards brothers in general and with Fabian this weekend. All right.

One more that I wanted to throw out to you. You mentioned gentlemen earlier. What about the gent? Luke Traynor coming into this one as a fairly sized underdog plus 140 on Draft King Sportsbook right now. He's going to be just speaking of brothers just a bit bigger than uh than grant neal he is going to have a seven inch height advantage it's a lot a seven inch reach advantage as grant neal makes his return to light heavyweight

that's that's a lot that's that's way bigger that's way bigger as someone that's as someone that's six one and my dad is six six which is the height of uh luke trainer stand next to my dad i'm like this guy's pretty big this guy is pretty pretty pretty big and it's going to be even a bigger discrepancy for one Grant Neal. Yeah, wow. I hadn't thought about it, honestly, but I don't hate it. You might be convinced me because also it's just like Grant Neal is Grant Neal, you know, like if you've been watching,

Grant Neal's one of those dudes who's just been putting in work in Bellator to zero acclaim. Just grinding out decision wins in Bellator. You could tag them on to Fabian Edwards and make the Welterweight brothers, brothers of UFC welterweight's parley. I don't think I'll parlay them, but I'll consider the train of parley. It's under consideration.

I did just add to the name Kelly Parlay, so. Yeah, Luke Trayner would just be a single. Plus 1.40, plus 150? I mean, massive, massive size difference there. And his one loss is to Simon Bayong. and like he's the same size as him. That's a good, that's a good pull. I'll be honest, I didn't look super deep down the card.

I don't hate this, though. Do not hate this. That's a big size difference. And I think that's it. That's all I have for a Bellator. Do you have anything else, my friend? No, no, we've done. I've added the Nate Kelly Parlay, which is,

oh, yeah. I mean, that's just exceptional work by you. Yeah, yeah, really good stuff for me on the gimmick parlay's this week. Your parlay ability is strong. I mean, you're... Yeah, we reviewed that in the show earlier, and what could go wrong with Bellator with a minus 450 and a minus 800? Nothing of us.

Nothing bad could ever happen with that. What could go wrong parlaying up a two-and-two fighter? Bellator parlays are notorious for their success. Oh, for sure, for sure. So, yeah, I'll go with the Nate Kelly Parlay. Jeremy Kennedy as a dog, and I think I'm going to add Luke Trayner as a dog as well. I keep thinking it over. Again, I have more action than I probably wanted to end up with this weekend.

Two-fight cards. This is a little bit, but I'm also not sure how much action I'm going to have next weekend looking ahead to that card. It's not, though. That's a pretty bad fight night. I will be in attendance for that one. So I'm going to have to have some bets. I've got some bets down. And for the sake of the gimmick, man, I might have to go against my girl Manone.

I mean. For the sake of the gimmick, that being the Pride of New Jersey, I will be in New Jersey. I'm a New Jersey man. Yeah, I might have to do it. We got Vicente Lucay and Aaron Blanchfield. I mean, you were just in a pretzel. Right there. Yeah, it's not good.

Because I got to tell you, I'm just considered betting all my money on Blanchfield instead of putting any other bets down, just taking all the money I'd bet elsewhere and just one big Blanchefield bet. Does this concern you at all that Blanchefield is, what is you right now, minus like 135 or something. Minus 140 for Aaron Blanchfield. Everyone who's anyone has told me that Blanchfield is just going to fucking steamroll,

Fioro. It is one of those lines where I'm like, I'm missing something here. Been sitting there for about a week and a half now, too. It's not like it's just opened up and we're just getting a glance at it. This puppy's been sitting there. It's available at pretty much every sports book.

It is absolutely a line that makes me think they know something. They are aware of something that I am not aware of. Um, because I truly don't, based on like all the things you hear from everybody, the popularity, it just feels like Blanchfield should be a massive favorite. I mean, we've got Armand Saruki and coming as a healthy favorite over Charles Oliva. Healthy, brother.

But Aaron Blanchfield is, is barely hanging on to favoritism over Manaw. Uh, maybe the French fans are just keeping that price down. Like maybe that's just, I don't know what it is. Uh, it is concerning though, for sure. Uh, all right. We'll get into that next week. week. That is that Apex 89, Belator Belfast. See you next week. Love y'all.