MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: UFC White House Is Finally Here, What Can We Expect?

Episode Date: June 11, 2026

The UFC is headed to the White House. For real. After nearly a year of preparation, the most surreal MMA card of all time is actually set to take place, with seven high-profile fights going down on the South White House lawn. And of course, No Bets Barred is here to break them all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Luke Noseda, AKA Long Island Luke, of Morning Kombat and Main Card Minute to dive into all things UFC White House. Topics discussed include Ilia Topuria lightweight title unification bout with Justin Gaethje, Alex Pereira's chance to make history against Ciryl Gane, who on the rest of the card might be a live underdog, the latest step in The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 157 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, yeah? We are back with another edition of No, Beth Bard. I am your host, Jed Moushou, and it is Fight Week, ladies and gentlemen, but not just any fight week. 250 freedoms we celebrate for UFC White House this Sunday. That is right, ladies and gentlemen, not Saturday, Sunday, as the United States of America kicks off its 250th anniversary. celebrations a month early, and on Sunday, not a Saturday for reasons that may be good, you know, mileage may vary to steal a catchphrase from our good friend Luke Thomas.

And speaking of our good friend Luke, we have a different one of those on this week. Long Island, Luke Nocita, also of morning combat, but also from the main card minute. And at this point, probably most known for prop quiz, Luke. I just saw you yesterday, but thank you for joining me today to talk about gambling on the UFC White House. Jed, good to be here as always. I think we all know why it's on Sunday, though, right? Nothing political. It's just because it's flag day.

Yeah, like, so. Flag day. I mean, it's obvious. I don't know why everyone's all up in arms about it, but yeah, flag day. So good to be here, though. Thank you. You know, hopefully it is on Sunday. You know, weather, weather is always a problem.

Maybe that will happen. We talked on morning combat that I was on this week about the influence of the elements. the outdoors and maybe that will play a part in some of these fights that we get to discuss. But, Lou, straightforward, we only have seven fights to discuss. So I think this actually will end up being a slightly shorter episode than normal while still, you know, covering all of the fights and all of the fights are better than our average fight that we get to cover. So there's that going.

Quick state of the union, since it's a White House card on where things stand for me gambling. I am basically at dead even on the year overall. The climb, we are on, I don't even know what iteration of the climb we're at right now, but we are four steps up. We did a mega four-legged climb to restart last time out, which was not last weekend. It was a weekend before. So we will be advancing that four legs up on the climb right now. The net pile I have on that is $102 plus little bit of change. 102 will be the bet. For those who do not know,

because we will be talking climb this week, the climb, if this is your first time here, you don't know, the climb is my effort to do 30 consecutive bets tied together. One after the other, we build up, we start with a bank goal of $50. We hopefully turn it into $11,000 at the end of this journey. Four steps up, we'll go on the mountain.

Look, before we dive into the fights, anything specific you want to say about UFC White House, how are you feeling? what's your level of enthusiasm you know it's we're recording on wednesday we usually go on tuesday but this actually fits because the fights won't be till sunday so even being a day late we're kind of on schedule you know yeah i'm pretty excited dude i mean obviously you just mentioned these seven fights arguably better than any like you know normal card we're doing seven fights normally we got like three good fights at the top and then a bunch of crap after it usually

uh so i'm pretty excited for all this i will say like betting wise i did not factor in the fact that it's going to be outdoors, the climate, any of that stuff. I often feel like when they're fighting in, like, Mexico City or Denver, I play too much into that elevation aspect and, like, try and bet around it, and I feel like it doesn't really work out. So I feel like it's better to just ignore that and just go solely based on the fights. That being said, it could be huge. It could be the reason all these fights go the way they go, so I'm a little nervous about

that but you know otherwise excitement level pretty pretty effing high i'd say like a 9.5 right now i think there are only a couple of fights where the outdoors the temperature the uh humidity might play a factor and i'll mention that when we get to them but luke before we dive in the card i want to say we're going to do something just a little bit different this week normally we go main event to the bottom of the card because it's a 12 fight card and you don't want to sit here and listen to us talk for I've debated even doing this anyway, but you want to get to the good stuff right out of the gate. In this instance, seven fights, all of them are good.

I figure we're going to invert things. We're going to start at the bottom of the card and build our way to the main, the same way you will be enjoying it at home as a viewer on Sunday. If, you know, if this were 10 fights, maybe we wouldn't do it. But I think with seven, it is easy enough, especially when we get to start with a banger, because Saturday night, or I'm sorry, not Saturday night, Fucked that up, party.

Sunday night opens with a banger. 8 p.m. is the start time, so my guess is this will go on at 8.30, but we are going to be right into the Rippers as Diego Lopez takes on Steve Garcia in a featherweight contest. Both men, you know, right at the top of the contender line. Lopez obviously has fought for it twice, but he's one win away from getting a third one based on the UFC's love of him. He is three and two over his past five, the two losses, both being to Volcanowski for the featherweight belt, whereas Garcia is on quite the win streak, has won his last five. Looked very impressive coming off the win over David Onama, his most recent timeout. The odds on this one, Luke, competitively lined, but Diego Lopez is the betting favorite, minus 155.

The comeback on Steve Garcia, around plus 125. How are you feeling about this main card opener? Where are you seeing some value on this? I mean, like you said, dude, this fight is a banger. Probably one of the best fights to start it with. With the exception of the co-main event, the closest lined fight on the card. So I'm pretty damn excited for this one. Steve Garcia, yo, when I look at his striking numbers, I was like really impressed.

He has like a two to one striking differential, almost barely gets hit and lands a lot. Diego, on the other hand, my man's got a negative striking differential, all right? but we're not really going to look at that, Jed. We're going to look at the wrestling here. Both these guys average less than a takedown for 15 minutes. The either of them even wrestle? I don't know. We've never really seen much of it.

The difference here, though. Steve Garcia, zero takedowns in his last eight fights. Lopez, taken down his last four opponents. Four of his last five fights. He did not take Volk down in the first fight, took him down in the second fight. But either way, four straight opponents there. Both guys are finishers. They've both been finished before.

Would not be shocked if this ends in five minutes, ends in 10 minutes, whatever. Either way. Would not be shocked if this goes a distance. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if this goes long. I really, like, didn't have a read on it, Chad. And sometimes you like to bet based on vibes, right? I love a vibe bet. And that's what I was feeling here.

I was feeling the vibes because really the numbers don't back up anything I wanted here, but I'm just loving the Diego Lopez vibes this week, right? And I know what you're thinking. Has he learned to cage cut? My theory. Here's my theory on this. He fights Volk the first time. does not know how to cage cut whatsoever.

Okay? Now he gets the Volk rematch. He goes, ooh, I'm going to learn how to cage cut to the left. Figures that out. Spends the whole time just learning how to go to the left. Now, after the Volt. He's going to cut to the right. Exactly.

He's going to put it all together this time. He's finally going to learn how to cage cut. And he's going to set up that Volk trilogy in August because they still haven't announced that main event. Where are you at Islam? But yeah, I'm taking Diego Money Line, Jed. I did parlay it. I'll get to that fight as we go, though.

So we are starting off right out of the gate with some contention because I think that there is value in Steve Garcia as an underdog here. I view this fight close to a stone pickum and I'm getting plus 125 on Steve Garcia. Garcia is slightly bigger man. You know, Diego Lopez is a big featherweight. Steve Garcia is going to be one of the few dudes who is just a bigger man than him in there. He is taller. He is more muscular. Like he is, he's cutting more weight.

I also just like the way his game lines up. Diego Lopez, I think in a pure striking affair, I favor Steve Garcia considerably in this matchup, not because of the cage cutting. I don't think cage cutting is mainly going to matter. Whoever is coming forward, I think, is more likely to succeed in this fight. Because if Steve Garcia is backing up, he doesn't, he's not shifty. Like, Diego doesn't have to cut him off. They're just going to be standing there and chucking him.

But I really like Steve Garcia's left hand. I like that he is a little more defensively sound than Diego Lopez is, who just does a sort of flurry and then gets hit and then flurries out. The concern I have is that Diego is, I believe, a much superior grappler here, but Steve Garcia has been pretty good as a defensive wrestler. Statistics don't always tell the tale, but he's got an 88% takedown defense. So I do think this is going to be on the feet. Lopez is going to try and do his, you know, explode into flurry things. Steve Garcia is just going to work much more consistently and even during those flurries. I think he can land big shots of his own.

I expect this to be fireworks and super fun. But like I said, I think there's, I think it's a straight pick-em. So I'm getting value at plus money on Steve Garcia. I can't disagree. And even when I'm looking at the numbers, I'm like, yo, I see the value on Steve Garcia too. But again, I think it's. Numerically, he is vastly like if you are just betting based on the UFC stats page, you assume that Steve Garcia is the betting favorite on this card.

But I think this is an overcorrection for me because I've messed this up last week with the Bryce Mitchell's Santiago Luna fight. And I went like, ooh, look at Santiago. He looks pretty damn good. And then Bryce Mitchell beat his up. So, you know, I'm overcorrecting, taking the favor this time around. Santiago is going to still be good, very young man, you know, just has to suffer kind of losses like that. And everybody underestimates Bryce Mitchell, the fighter. So I understand that.

Yeah. That means, Luke, we can advance up the card to, I, it's not really a prelim fight because all the cards are, they're all on the one, it's all one sort of mega main card thing. I don't really know. But it is a middleweight contest between Bo Neckle and Kyle Dawkes. I don't think anybody thought that this fight, this is probably the strangest fight on the whole card, just as like. who saw this coming?

I think a lot of people thought Bo Nickel was going to make it onto this card. He is a big supporter of the current president of the United States and just an American prospect that the UFC sees a future in.

But Kyle Dawkus, this man who was out of the UFC a year and a half ago or maybe it's two years ago at this point, but, you know, was not in the UFC until last summer

when he got returned to the promotion after a tough first run, admittedly, a very difficult first run, but he goes back to Cage Fury. He wins the belt, puts a couple of defenses, good performances together, comes back 2-0 since they're turning. Both first-round finishes in less than a minute.

Bo Nickel, meanwhile, also had a return of his own. After his first loss, he loses the Ryanair de Ritter, and then comes back and knocks out Hidalfa Vieira in November at UFC 322. Oddsmakers, they are behind nickel in a big way, minus 325, the comeback on Dawkins, plus 250. Long Island. I got some co-workers here who are believers in Kyle Dawkins and his upset potential. Are you a man who believes that Kyle Dawkins has a chance to do a pretty funny thing by kicking over the apple cart of Bo Nicol on Sunday?

I don't want to give it away yet, so I'm going to break it down. But I weirdly, I'm not with them, but I'm kind of with them, all right? So albeit very slightly, Bo does land more, gets hit less often. We obviously know his wrestling prowess, one of the best wrestlers, probably in the UFC right now, over three takedowns per 15 minutes. Dawkes, though, 100% takedown defense. Granted, who the fuck has been shooting on him? You know, I don't really know. Majority of his wins, though, do come by sub.

I could see a world where Bo, a lot like the Paul Craig fight, is just reluctant to take this fight down. And if you're going to get into a striking battle with Kyle Dow, like, it's not like, oh, Kyle Dawkes is some great striker. But, like, Bo Nickel really hasn't looked that impressive on the feet. And I feel, I know he got a head kick knockout is less than I'm out. But still, I'm like, I don't know, man. I could see a world where if this stays standing, it kind of goes in favor of Dawkins. That being said, I do think Bo probably ruins that 100% take down defense and does get Kyle down. But I didn't feel comfortable enough to be like, oh yeah, Bo for sure wins this as a minus 400 favorite or whatever.

Let me throw that in a parlay. And again, I just mentioned overcorrecting or whatever. Maybe it's because I had Bo Nickel as a huge favorite in an RDR parlay that time. and he ruined, you know. Why would you ever bet against Ardine? I know, I regret it. That's foolish of you. Yeah, but then I bet on him the last, you know, a couple times.

And, you know, that hasn't gone either great. But anyways, Jed, I'm staying away. I feel like this one is going to go long. Like I think even, let's say Kyle does get the upset, which I don't think he will. I think it goes 15 minutes. I think Bo probably gets a decision. Either way, the over one and a half was only minus 145. I did take that in a parlay.

I parlayed it with Diego Money Line. So those two together, I believe, I have this written backwards now. Plus 178. Nichols hit the over one and a half and three of his last four. Dawkes has hit it in four of his nine UFC fights between those two stints. But, you know, toughest opponent to date. We'll see. I think it goes a little longer.

I would be okay with it going a little longer because I've got two plays on this particular fight here. I understand the inclination to believe that Kyle Dawkes is a live dog. And I got a lot of respect for Kyle Dawkes as a fighter. I want to be pretty clear about that. Because this is a man who doesn't have a lot of tools, but has developed a very solid game, right? Like he is, he's in that sort of Michael Bisping category of not a particularly good athlete, but he just keeps plugging away, keeps developing skills,

learns how to approach the game smartly, and has a career based on hard work rather than, you know, natural talent. Whereas Bo Nicol, I'm not saying he doesn't work hard. Certainly his MMA career at this point is based primarily off natural talent and the hard work that it took to be where he's at as a wrestler, right? I think these two dudes are going to be moving at different speeds on Sunday.

But the gap in athleticism, I think, is simply too big for Kyle Dawkins to overcome. Despite Dawkins being like a big guy and Bo Nicol being very unpolished, I think Nickel is not going to have any concerns about scoring takedowns. So I think he's going to score them liberally. I have two bets. The first bet, just for funsies, I don't really recommend. Like, this is not me trying to gamble smartly, but it's White House.

I want to have action everywhere I can on this card. Let's have some fun. Putting together just like a very heavy favorite sort of parlay here, and I like Bo Neckle as one piece of that. You can probably guess some of the other ones that are coming your way later, ladies and gentlemen. But let me tell you one that I do really like. And I don't know if everybody's book has this. You may still have to wait. A card of this magnitude, I suspect that you will be able to find it. But I haven't done a ton of playing in this world, Luke, but they're a takedown prop here.

Bo-Nickle takedowns landed prop. So only for Bo-Nichael. Also, sidebar, Bo-Nichael lands more takedowns than Kyle Dawkins is like minus 650, which I also think is a like unbelievably good pop out like parlay fodder. It is like who lands the most takedowns landed Bo Nichols minus 650. You should put that in every parlay you're doing

because it's 100% to do that. Does it void if there's no taketowns? Do we know? I would assume that it is a push if it's equal or none but I don't actually know. But I love that

as an action. I may end up tying that into the climb this week, depending on what I can get going here. We then move to, back to what I was saying, the Bo-Nickle take-downs landed number. Pick them on either side at minus 115. Luke, take a guess of what you think the number is. Because you're so high on it,

I'm going to say it's low, but at the same time it is Bo-Nichols, so I have to say it's like two and a half. One and a half. Wow, that's crazy. One and a half. Over one-and-a-half is minus 1-15. at my book, took it immediately. Again, I haven't spent that much time in this sort of prop zone,

but unless he either gets totally stuffed and Dawkins knocks him out, okay, or he just finishes the first takedown he gets and gets a submission, which I don't think that's going to happen with Kyle Dawkins. Maybe it doesn't, I'm wrong. I really like this. I think Bo is going to get at least two takedowns in this fight. And so at that price, minus 115, took a straight bet on it. And again, maybe looking to put.

but Bo-Nickle lands more takedowns minus $6.50 in the climb, too. We'll sort of see as we... The climb is not yet built. We're going to talk through some stuff as we go through it. So a lot of action, a lot of action in this fight right now. Let us move on, Luke, to the lightweight division as we just are flying up this card right now. We'll call it a big lightweight fight. It's a ranked lightweight fight.

It is the biggest mismatch on the card, odds-wise, as Maricio Hoofy takes on Michael Chandler Huffy, minus 750. The comeback on Chandler plus 525 looking at my book number right now. And you may be asking yourself, that's a big number on a very famous man like Michael Chandler. Well, he's won one of his past six fights. He's on three-fight losing streak, and he look like absolute rancid dog water. when he fought Patty Pimbleau at UFC 314, whereas Huffy, meanwhile, has looked very good in the UFC,

four and one in the promotion coming on, lost to Benoit Sandini in September, but rebounded in a major way by stopping Hafeel Fazeveh in February at UFC 325, the biggest win of his career. Luke, are these odds are long? Are these odds correct in being this long? I don't think so, but it's not what you're thinking. You know, I'm not about to bet on Michael Chandler, but I still don't agree with me. I think that's reasonable. Yeah, like neither guy, when you actually look at the numbers, has great strike.

In fact, dude, they have like identical striking numbers, which like, going into this, I'd be like, oh, Chandler probably has a negative striking differential. Hoofie probably lands, like, shitload strikes per minute. Nope, pretty much identical. But it's really going to be the wrestling here. Chandler, obviously, former D1, All-American. He's taken down four of his last five opponents. Hoofee showed a real weakness with his takedown defense against BSD, getting taken down three times in that fight.

There's a world here where Michael Chandler can wrestle his way to an upset. But he's also 40 years old. He's been knocked out five times, including his last fight, where he looked like rancid dog shitwater or whatever Jed said. And 92% of Hoofie's pro wins have come by knockout. So like, I mean, this feels like a clear Hoofie K.O. The question is, how long will it take to get there, Jed? because how long? I moved into this fight

and I saw the over one and a half was plus money and I hopped all over that at plus 120 Hoofies hit it in three of his last four Chandler's hit it in four of his last five which is like a really good hit rate for a plus money over also you don't normally see that at this low of a weight class the plus money overs are usually

you know the heavyweight fights I think we have one coming later that's plus money over so like I'm just like yeah I'll take that all day let's go. I'm hoping. I really need to root for Chandler at that point and I hope he can make this last a little longer. So we'll see. Yeah, I, I spent a lot of time looking and trying to figure out like what, what's even good here. And this is of all the fights and the one. I can absolutely see that Michael Chandler is maybe more live than the odds suggest because it's such a big number. And Chandler can do like a BSD impression, not as good at control graph.

has been was on dene but like he can throw big power punches back you up and then shoot you know a take down and work a series off that he just looks so bad against pimblit he's he's he's old i think it's just i think the time has gone by and even though i am not massively sold on riso uh hoofi as a as a fighter i think he's probably going to get this done i was looking at a couple of these specialty props these strikes landed etc none of them really jumped out of me um if you think it's going long maybe Michael Chandler's significant strike number which is like 25 and a half maybe take the over there he's actually hit that in almost every one of his UFC fights but I don't have a massive level of confidence in it but as I mentioned earlier I want to have action figure I'm going to do it this is

part and parcel of the putting together a big parley with a lot of favorites we'll put hoofie in there with Bo Nicol and one to two more individuals to come so that's where we were at real quick on this you can you check what is chandler to get one takedown chanelner to get one takedown let's see i do not have that as an option here it's going to say if that's plus money i might take that but there's not an option on my book i'm not saying that option does not exist elsewhere but not available to me at this point in time long island we head to the hump at the turn of events the heavyweight fight of the evening the last fight added to this card.

Josh Hokit, taking on Derek Lewis. What a fist fight. This will be Hokit, your betting favorite coming in at a minus 425. I was going to say favorite coming as at minus 425. The comeback on Derek Lewis plus 325 for the 41-year-old Lewis, 3 and 2 of his last 5, enters off his loss to Waldo Cortez-A Costa in January. TK.A loss, where he also. Also, like Michael Chandler, looked dreadful.

Okay, meanwhile, undefeated and undefeated in the UFC, 3 and O. A unanimous decision win over Curtis Blades in April. That is quite possibly the fight of the year at this point in time. A super fun one that launched him up in status. And now he gets a big, big opportunity on the White House lawn versus the president's favorite fighter, Luke, Derek Lewis. He talked to NBA fighting's Mike Heck. Go watch that interview, read the article. He told him, hey, man, it's cliche.

I'm in the best shape of my career because I want to prove the president right. I don't want to embarrass him on the White House lawn. If I'm his favorite fighter, I can't suck. Paraphrased a lot of that, but that was the general gist. Does Derek Lewis pull off the epic upset, take his pants off on the White House? House lawn and announced to the world that his balls is hot? Or does the Incredible Hoek win, recite some poem, and make everybody cringe while watching these fights on Sunday? I mean, I think the real question is, who's a bigger Derek Lewis fan? Mike Heck or Donald Trump?

That is a great quote. That is a neck and neck battle right there. I feel like Mike Heck's like, all right, Derek Lewis wins this. You give him the title shot. But Hookett, Jed. Larry Lewis is always one win away from a title fight in in Mike Heck's mind. This is absolutely true. Hokit lands over four times the strikes per minute, dude. Derek Lewis only lands two strikes per minute, which is like pretty fucking anemic. But I guess in his logic, he only needs one to win. And I guess just need one.

Yeah. So, uh, Hokit does get hit three times as often as Derek. But majority of those, you know, numbers came from that Blades fight in which he was clearly like not respecting Blade's power. he was willing to take shots in order to land shots. You're not going to be able to do that with Derek Lewis. So my hope is Josh Hokit's gimmicks aren't as,

or his fight IQ isn't as stupid as his gimmicks, I guess I should say. Like, you should be a little smarter here this time out. He's a damn good wrestler, dude. He averages almost four takedowns per 15 minute. Obviously, NCAA Division I as well. Lewis, pretty terrible. 52% takedown defense was taken down 16 total times in his last six fights. As long as Hokit can just avoid

the big shot from Lewis. This should be smooth sailing here. I'm taking Josh Hokit, Moneyline in a parlay. It is a four-leg parlay. That is the first of the four. Makes a lot of sense. Looking at a number of things here,

I think there's a lot of ways to go. But I am just, I'm going to not bury the lead. I don't necessarily believe this to be true, but it's possible enough that I have to bet it for the hopes and the vibes. And that is Derek Lewis, with a caveat.

the the logic here being curtis blades landed all the time on josh hoakit and if derek lewis lands on josh hoagher curtis blades known power puncher that he is was jabbing hoaget and getting a reaction if if derrick lands it's his curtains this night night game is over also derrick lewis just has to if he defends the first couple of takedowns which we know he can you know he is not an elite wrestler but he's good enough to defend an early takedown or two. He'll give him up as the fight goes on, no doubt about it. But if he can just stuff one big punch, it is Derek Lewis Curtis blades all over again. That being said, Derek Lewis, plus 325s an underdog.

I don't know what would possibly compel you to bet on that. When Derek Lewis, by K.O. is plus 400. He's not winning a decision. He's knocking this dude out or he's getting knocked out. like he's getting T-Ked ground and pound. That's pretty much the only two outcomes. Maybe there's a small chance. Hocke it wins a decision that gets very lopsided, runs downhill.

But if you're going to be betting Derek Lewis, as I am, you should be betting Derek Lewis by K.O. Get a little bit of extra value there plus 400. I do want to talk about a couple of other props on this one with you, Luke, for a minute. Nothing that I think I'm going to do based on what I've bet quite obviously. but some of the other sort of specialty props I was looking around at this and found Josh Hokit, takedowns landed over 0.5 is minus 155. Great part.

That's almost good enough to make me bet it anyway, despite the fact that I'm a Derek Lewis backer, because it is lands one takedown is only minus 155. And personally, I think if you're, if you are a John, Josh Ho get better, instead of betting him at the straight price, this is just a better bet because if he wins, it will be because he gets a takedown. So you're having the cost you are paying for that. I also kind of just want to do it and be like, maybe he gets a takedown. Derek stands up, Jiu-Jitsu's fake, and then knocks him out.

But so that one particularly caught my eye. The Derek Lewis significant strikes landed. 15 and a half is the over-under. it's around minus 135 to 100. If you're going the under, it's minus 135. And like, I don't, like, if he just gets tackled or the first punch he lands, it's, you can succeed either way there. So the significant strikes for the bout as a whole combined 51.5, which I'm also kind of interested in,

that's a stone pickum, just because Hokit does not won and done it, right? Like, it is an accumulation of damage there. Considering that Hockett's over on strikes is 33 and a half, also a pick-em. Actually, let me look up Josh Hockett right now. I was going to say, the Curtis Blades fight, they had like 350 combined. It did. Also, that one, you know, in this one, we assume that a fight will get stopped. But against Dinsel Freeman 37, his win over Max Jimenez was a murder, and that was only

nine significant strikes, so that's the under. But two of three in the UFC, if you count his Dana-Wark and Tender series, that was 27. So he's two and two in all his octagon fights. But Derek Lewis in general is a little bit tougher. I also think,

whether they acknowledge it outright or not, I think the referees will get a, hey, let's not pull the trigger too early. Don't let anybody die in there, but we don't want any controversial early stops. So that, I mean, the under, I think that that over is hitting unless Derek Lewis sparks him out early.

So again, because of the primary bet I have, I probably can't bet this. But if you're a Hokit backer, I think there's a lot of ways to get some extra, extra juice going on in this heavyweight fight. I think I'm going to parlay what you just suggested, the Hokit one takedown, over half a takedown with the bow nickel one and a half takedown. I just think I actually have decided screw it. I'm going to take the Josh Hoke over one takedown because I can't. That just is such a 0.5. It's so low. Yeah.

It's just not a thing. It's so flow. So, and it's only minus 155. So Derek, get taken down. Stand back up. Knock him out. Best of all worlds there. We move on to the feature bout of the.

evening. It is in the Bantamweight division as Sean O'Malley takes on Aiman Zahabi, the pride of Canada. Amali's going to rock out there. He's going to, I assume, have the red, white, and blue hair. He is entering as the betting favorite at minus 425, the comeback

on Zahby plus 325. Amali, three and two over his last five, but kind of like Diego Lopez, those two losses, the same dude, and in title fights. This one, to Marab de Vallevili in Bantamweight title fights. Zah meanwhile he's on a heater no doubt about it seven in a row all in the UFC of course uh has not

lost since Vince Morales in 2019 most recently took a split decision over marlin chito vera that i think probably shouldn't have been a split he felt like he won that cleanly even if i actually thought he lost to josie aldo the fight before that many people disagree and think he won not a robbery how are we feeling luke about sean o'malley who you know doesn't necessarily necessarily need to perform super well, but he's trying to get to a title fight and he's coming off in a solid but uninspiring win over Song Yadong his most recent timeout. Uninspiring and unsatisfied is the way to put it because, you know, he beat Yadong for 15 minutes and still couldn't finish. So I just wanted to make that joke. Nice.

O'Malley. O'Malley's got great striking numbers, Jed, similar to Steve Garcia, a two to one striking differential. He lands more and gets hit less. He's also going to have a four inch reach advantage here. Zahabi, a lot like his fighting style, he has solid striking number. Nothing great. Just not bad. Solid, whatever. There's nothing more to say on it. While it's not sticking out of me anywhere in the numbers, I weirdly feel like Zahabi's a live dog here. I'm not saying he's going to steal the fight outright, or win the fight out right, but I think he can steal around here. He has gotten dropped in back-to-back fights. Majority of O'Malley's wins come by knockout, but I still feel like this one goes long.

taking the over one and a half rounds. It's leg three of that four leg parlay, or I guess it's leg two. Yeah, because this is all backwards now. It's leg two with that four leg parlay. Umali's hit it in six of his last seven Zahabhi's hit it in five of his last six. But I was preaching this on MK and I was just kind of alluding to it there. I'm also taking Zahabi with the plus seven and a half spread in a parlay because I just think this goes to the distance. I think he can steal around on at least one judge's scorecard. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I don't hate it. I've been debating whether I'm going to use Sean O'Malley in the big juicy parley because I do think he gets this W, but he's so uninspiring his statement's a hobby.

And as much as I am known for being as a hobby hater, not a hater, I just don't think he's good. I acknowledge that he is a winner. He finds ways to edge scorecards and get wins that I can't quite figure out how'd you do it. He just sort of wills it to happen in a way that is impressive, certainly impressive. But I think what I've decided is that instead of including O'Malley in the big juicy parley that I'm putting together, I think what I want to do is, again, look at these specialty props here. And the one I found, the one that I think I like, and tell me how you feel about this, the O'Malley total significant strikes landed.

The over under is 70 and a half. And I'm taking the under. Against Song Yidong, Shana Mali landed 48 significant strikes. The two fights against Marab, he landed under 50 significant strikes. Granted, he lost both of those, but still, those are 25 minutes, one of them, and the other one still didn't get to that number. Against Chito Vera, he landed a million strikes because he was beating the breaks off Chito Vera for 25 minutes, but before that, the Aljimane Sterling was only 25 because

he caowed Sterling so quickly. Piotriani only landed 84. in that very back and forth fight for three rounds, he beat it, but he didn't, like, totally blow it out of the water. And so I think the under, which O'Malley has, the only time O'Malley has really smoked this number are the demolitions, right? Like, he killed Cheeto Vera, he killed Chris Mutino, he landed a million strikes. The other ones, he's either knocking guys out before he gets to that number, or the fight just stays close. And he is not a high-volume shooter in a close fight. he's going to wait to pick his spots and counter.

So I, uh, I'm going to take a stab at this one. It is a, it's a minus 115 on either side. The O'Malley under 70.5, uh, total significant strikes. Tell me, is that, is that crazy? Is it smart? What am I doing here? So when you were like, O'Malley significant strikes in my head, I'm like guessing what the line was going to be and I'm like, it's probably like 60.

And then I'm like, I don't know if I would take that over though, because that's what I thought you were alluding to. And then you said it was 70 and you said you're taking the under. So I think it's a solid bet. It's going to be a little sweaty if he starts putting it on, Aeman, especially late. But I think like through two rounds, dude, he's going to have like 40 significant strikes. You know what I mean?

So I think you'll be good. And we'll have fun. You know what we'll do? We'll have fun. However it shakes out. You go to Hawaii in your head all the time. But when you're actually ready to go, there's Expedia. Flights, hotels, vacation homes, cars.

Save more when you bundle. stop dreaming and start saving. Expedia, the one place you go to go places. Members only savings vary. We move to the big fights of the weekend, and this is, I believe it's the biggest one. I mean, there are two heavyweight fights, but this is the heavyweight fight that matters the most, and I think it is the best fight of the weekend, the fight I'm the most excited to watch, even if maybe not talk about the aftermath.

It is former middleweight champion, former light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira taking on former UFC interim heavyweight champion Cyril Ghan 4, the interim heavyweight belt. A lot of belts just in circulation around this. And it is on my book right now a stone pickum minus one tens on either side. As Poetan moves up to heavyweight for the first time to try and make history and become the first ever three division champion in the UFC. and gone looks to become only the second ever two-time interim champion behind a man we will talk about in the main event. Luke, we talked about this yesterday in MK. This fight's awesome.

Tell me your thoughts on it. I mean, dude, a lot like you, this is easily the best fight on the card, probably because I truly have no idea who wins. And a lot, like you said, with the odds, like clearly no one else has any idea. They haven't even swayed. The odds maker set up there. They haven't moved a bit. Striking numbers here are super interesting, dude, because Gahn actually lands more, gets hit less,

and he's going to have a two-inch reach advantage. I don't think either guy's going to wrestle here, but Gond has taken down four different opponents in the UFC. Poetan only taken down one, was Israel Audasanya too, so not a great, you know, not the best. He's got solid take down defense. I don't want to say that. Anyways, real X factor for me here is how the fuck is Poeton

going to look at heavyweight? Does his speed and power carry to heavyweight? The longer this goes, how does his cardio look carrying all that extra weight? We've at least seen gone at this weight go five rounds multiple times too. So there's something a little more like reassuring with Cyril gone here. I feel like the more I talk about the fight, I'm leaning gone. But I did stay away from taking either guy pretty much because it's pickum. I'm instead taking the over one and a half rounds.

It is the third leg of that four leg parley. both guys have hit it in two with their last three and normally, I mean, thrown in over one and a half in a Poetan fight in a four-leg parlay just feels like, stoop, like, what are you doing? That's a dumb bet. But it's also a Cero gone fight,

and I feel like Cero loves to hit the over one and a half. So we're just going to hope for the best here. Hope it goes a little long. I don't hate that at all. I think this fight is going along. And what intrigues me, maybe not the most, but this is a fascinating clash of styles,

to me, right? Pereira is moving up to heavyweight. So you could, in general, assume that he will be quicker, right? Like, he's just moving up a weight class. He's been dealing with quicker dudes, but Gaon is notorious, like, one of the quickest, sort of most nimble heavyweight, so maybe that ends up being wash. Pereira's, I've never seen Cyril Gan lose a striking fight. Like, I've just never seen that, right?

He lost to Francis Ngano. He did not lose to France. on the feet, he got tackled several times. You know, like that Volkov tackled him several times. John Jones tackled him and tapped him. The way Seulgon has lost has been very clearly this. There is one way. We've seen him have, you know, more competitive striking matchups than others.

We saw Tai Tuivasa chin him, but Ty didn't bend him. He just heard him. He got back up. Cyril's chin is very good. He's super mobile in a way that Pereira is not Pereira. is not heavy-footed, but he is very stationary, linear. He's not bouncing. He's moving on his lines.

And so I can see Ghan's footwork and sort of bouncing, you know, being a huge edge here. The same time, Pereira's got that calf kick, that small, super effective. It is a straw that stirs a drink for him in so many ways. And he starts landing that. God's movement goes away. He's there to be hit. The biggest concern for me from Gond's. standpoint, he keeps his right hand super low.

And especially in moments, like just in general, he keeps it low, which is bad for a man who throws a really good left hook in Alex Pereira, but especially concerning because go watch tape of Cyril gone. You will see this over and over and over again. If he has an opponent hurt or he thinks he's gaining momentum, he will start to, in the words of the great Luke Thomas, donk it up. And he will start throwing from the hip and leaving his chin out there. And if he does that, Pereira might izzie him, you know, just like, oh, I'm up against the fence.

Here comes the left hook. It's curtains. But on the same token, God can attack the body super well. And Pereira moving up to heavyweight for the first time, we haven't seen a lot of dudes attack him like to the body. But we saw Cleo Roundtry have a little bit of success with that. Like there, the machinations of this fight are so good. And that's not even considering that Pereer's 39, right? And he's got a lot of miles on him, which is always a concern for me, even as good as he's looked.

I love this fight. I think this fight is great. I don't think it would be wrong to straight bet either side if you have a conviction on one or the other. You know, you're a fan. Get behind it and go. I am very slightly leaning towards Alex Pereira to win this fight. But that is based almost entirely on, I think he is the more dynamic of the two fighters. and over 25 minutes having

having the ace in the hole of a COPO power that Gond doesn't really have kind of get, I just sort of lean him, but there's no, I don't have any strong belief in that. What I'm looking at here, like you, the overs.

I get an over two and a half at minus 150 is something I feel pretty good about. Gone super durable. I think this is going to be a relatively slow-paced kickboxing fight. And if a stoppage comes, it will come late. I could also just see this. going to the cards.

Another one that I like, and then I'm on, the gone over 65.5 significant strikes. Much more of a volume shooter. Like you said, I think it's going long. He landed 30 in four minutes against Tom Aspinall. You know, Volkov, there was a lot of wrestling in that, so he hit the under, but he hit the over against Spivak. He hit the over against Tai Tui Vasa. He hit, he and Francis were like right on the number.

actually came in under it, but there was also a good amount of wrestling in the portions of that fight. And so in a fight where I anticipate there being no grappling or minimal grappling, I really like the over on significant strike there. For reference, Pereira's six strike number 59. 5 and it is weighted a little bit towards the under minus 145 there. So anything you have to add to what I just said, Lou. Uh, two props I was looking at just like rather than picking either, because I hate minus money

even if it is minus 108, minus 105, but you know, because it's pick them. Perera by chaos. Just take him back. Like, I don't really see him winning a decision. Like, I guess I could see him winning a decision, but I feel like it's way more likely he puts Gons lights out. So I feel like the KO prop is worth it there. And then on the flip side, gone with the spread.

I believe even though it's a pickum, they're giving you the plus spread on GON. I mean, you can take whatever. Yeah, right. Like plus five and a half, I think, in a five-round fight is the minimum spread. So, like, dude, 48, 47 on all three judges' scorecards, he loses the fight or something. He still wins, you know, like 49, 47. You know, there's a lot of ways that could cover. But I feel like that's like a solid rather than bet the decision because it still just kind of covers you money line either way with gone.

I like that. That's a good one. Okay. It's time. Main event, baby. Let's get to it. a lightweight title fight, a title unification fight, in fact, as undisputed lightweight champion Ilya takes on the interim lightweight champion, two-time interim lightweight champion,

Justin Gaichi in a fight that has gained a whole lot of animosity conveniently, just as we get to fight week. These two guys suddenly do not care for each other. Huh, funny how that works, but Tuporia is your betting favorite minus 550. The comeback on Justin Gaei is plus 400. This actually came down very slightly. My book had Tuporia as a bigger favorite earlier on in this week. But Tuporia, by this time, you know the deal. He's on an unbelievable run.

17.0 is a professional. A million and O in the UFC or whatever the number is, like 10, 8 or 9, whatever it is. but the big one is the last three. Knocked out Alexander Volcanovsky, knocked out Max Holloway, knocked out Charles Olivera. Even though all three of those dudes are old, that is among the greatest runs in the greatest three-fight stretches in the history of mixed martial arts.

Gachy, coming in on a two-fight win streak of his own. He has lost a couple other than that. Four and one over his past five, though. The only lost being Max Holloway, less than ideal circumstances, but he got finished at 300 in one of the most, if not the most memorable knockouts of all time.

Sincen rebounded. Wins over Hafeel Fiziv and Patty Pimblit. The Pimlet one got him the interim belt back in January. Big, big betting favor for Tupuria. Is it justified, Luke? Yeah, probably. I just want to say, dude,

you just mentioned the Patti fight. A lot like the Patti fight. This might not be like the fight everyone wanted. But if you can just put that disappointment aside for a second, this is a fun-ass fight. Like, this is a really fucking fun fight, even if it's not like the best fight you can make it lightweight.

Ilya, arguably one of the biggest stars in the sport right now, going against the most exciting fighter of all time. Like, yeah, I'm in. Gachi, negative striking differential. He gets hit almost twice as often as Teporia. The lone bright spot is that he does land close to two more strikes per minute than Ilya, and we've seen Ilya be open to get hit in the past. We can also bring up Gachi's wrestling background,

because what would be a Gaichi fight if we didn't bring up his wrestling background? He can wrestle. He can. And he actually used it his last time out. He got three takedowns against him. He's threatening you might use it this time too. That's what I'm saying.

And Ilya has only been taken down once in the UFC. He has a 93% takedown defense. So like, does Justin get him down? I don't know. We'll see. We'll see. Not to mention Ilya actually a good grappler himself. I could see a world where Gaichi gets the upset.

But I think the age, the momentum. And Jed, honestly, the moment of the White House. Like, I feel like Ilya, He loves that star, you know, that moment. He's going to shine in it. I just feel it. That being said, I loki going to be rooting for Justin Gaci, but I'm not going to put my money there.

I'm taking a very chalky. Fight does not go the distance here. It is the fourth leg of that parlay. So again, we got Hokit money line. Fight does not go the distance here. Over one and a half in Pereira Ghan and over one and a half in O'Malley Zahabi. It's plus 146. And 84% of their combined pro fights have not gone the distance.

I mean, that is, that is very chalky. It's absolutely true, but it's not a bad bet. That's just the reality of it. Justin Gachy is a very meaningful fighter to me. I am an enormous fan of what he has accomplished in the history of the sport, frankly, and what he kind of means to the sport. But his time is come and gone. I didn't think he particularly looked great against Patty.

won that fight, but he still looked old. He's been looking old. And the fact that he's looked old and been able to beat Fazeve and beat Patty Pimblit, Our Testaments is greatness. But I hate him at this point. Like I'm, I was not, I was largely ambivalent to him. And then he started talking and he has not shut up talking since. I hate him.

Straight up dislike that man immensely. Would love to see him lose. It would provide me joy because maybe he might shut fuck up for like a half a day. But I would never denigrate his skills or abilities. He is at worst, the second best fighter on the planet right now.

Extremely supremely talented and probably not even in his prime. You know, coming into the years that should be his prime is if he continues to elevate in the way he has done so. So, he's going to win this fight. The question to me is how, I don't think we have

to think too hard about it if you just want to put Toporia as a climb piece. which I strongly considered. It was minus 550. That's in sort of the general realm that we'd be okay with. But I think there's just a better climb option available, and it's very simply Ilya to win by finish. That's minus 350.

I don't know the world in which Topuria and Gaichi fight for 25 minutes. It is, and if that happens, it almost feels like somehow Gaichi has won the fight if they're going that long, because he must be jazzed. being in wrestling and it's working or whatever. I think these two dudes are going to collide. One guy is going to fall. It's overwhelmingly likely to be a gaetchi that falls. And so at Porea by finish at minus 350,

that is a guaranteed climb insurance. The only other thing is whether I want to add to that climb, the aforementioned Bo-Nichael lands more takedowns than Kyle Dawkins to add to the climb, which, you know. What does that get it down to? I mean, the number at that point is, so if I put the climb bet, we'd be not quite two step six, but we'd be about halfway between steps five and six for our sort of demarcated target goals for each of these steps.

So I would say to verify if, just make sure it's not a loss if for whatever reason no one gets a takedown in that fight. Yeah, Beau just kills him. Yeah. That's valid. I think I'm probably end up just going to not do it and just do Tuporia Tuporia inside the distance rate because that's just...

Yeah. I mean, it's a solid price too, minus a for a climb. It's a $1.250 is perfectly fine. I think he's going to get it done. So, really, Tuporia, inside the distance, minus 350. Looking at some of these other props

just because we've been talking about them, the Teporia's significant strikes number is 46.5. that just feels like a hard one to gauge because he could knock him out early or this could go a little later. The Gagchi strike number is 36.5, so, you know, there's that. It feels like you're betting an over at that point.

The Tuporia takedown over, over a half. That is a minus number. They think Tuporia is going to land a takedown this fight. Minus 160 for the over. We're half a takedown for Liotta Pura. I wouldn't say it's impossible. Tepiria is like, was a grappler before he fell in love with the hands, but I would have thought that the odds would at least be flipped, that it would be under was the betting favorite

there, but not the case. That's kind of tempting to take the under there plus 20. Yeah, kind of, right? Yeah. But like also, because also if he knocks him down and jumps on him, that's not a takedown. Exactly. But we'll see. We'll see how any of that goes.

I am at this point in time just going Ili by finish minus 350. That will be our next step in the climb. That will get us up to step five. And, you know, we'll be pretty happy with where we end up. Let me actually put that in and see what it looks like right now. So, yeah, that gets us well over step five, actually also in the neighborhood. Not quite to step six, but we've got some wiggle room to take some more conservative climb bets in the future should this hit. Luke, thank you for joining me.

Anything else you want to say about this card before we skiddle? No, just I really hope the pacing is good, dude. My biggest fear is that, like, we got, I don't, I'm not even going to get political about it. Like, I don't really care what they're showing. Just don't take, like, 20, 30 minutes in between each fight. Like, can we please just, like, it's a Sunday night already. Let's end this at a reasonable hour. I'm hoping it's done by, like, midnight, even though I know that's probably unrealistic.

But looking forward to another way. It's very unrealistic, but I do. I have an immense amount of respect for your willingness to dream. Not going to happen, but we are going to have fun. Luke, tell the people where they can find you, and then we will get out of here. Go subscribe, Main Card Minute. You follow me on social media at Main Car Minute. Doing a full card watch along Sunday with Gath in person.

First time ever we're doing it in person, so it should be fun. We'll have some fun props and stuff to play with, so tune in. Boom. Tune in, everybody. Thank you for listening to this. Tune into MMA fighting all week long for the remainder of your coverage. Jose Young's is boots on the ground. We will have a preview show.

We will have a live watch party with me and Mike Heck as well. And a post show as always as we lock in for the biggest event of the year. Thanks for listening. Love y'all. Formula One. So hot right now. It's like if traders in succession had a baby on wheels. Teams lying.

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