MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: We Finally Get Jon Jones Vs. Stipe Miocic at UFC 309, Plus Jake Paul Vs. Mike Tyson

Episode Date: November 13, 2024

The biggest weekend of the month is finally here! It's a combat sports double-header this weekend as on Friday, Jake Paul faces Mike Tyson in their specialty boxing match in Arlington, Texas, and then on Saturday Jon Jones finally defends his UFC heavyweight title against Stipe Miocic in the main event of UFC 309. So with so much action, No Bets Barred returns to break it all down. MMA Fighting's Jed Meshew dives deep into both fight cards on this mega-weekend, with betting breakdowns for all the best action. Topics discussed include how bad Jones vs. Miocic will be, whether Tyson has any chance against Jake Paul, Michael Chandler's odds of avenging his previous loss to Charles Oliveira, the latest update on THE CLIMB, and much more. Tune in for episode 108 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts. BART! That is right, ladies and gentlemen.

We're back, and we're back for the big one. The double-header you've all been waiting for. Fresh off the heels of the greatest event. Arguably in the history of combat sports, I'm speaking, of course, about UFC Apex 100, the historic monumental event that it was. Actually, no lie, it was. pretty damn good. We'll talk about that in just a moment.

But we are on to UFC 309 fight week. That's right. John Jones-Stepe-Mijich-heavyweight championship of the world, the fight that was supposed to happen one full year ago that has been on our radar for almost two full years at this point in time. We finally get the resolution. And oh, by the way, that's Saturday night, Friday night, the actual biggest fight of the year.

Maybe not in terms of quality. Maybe not in terms of your personal. the level of excitement, but in terms of spectacle, in terms of viewership, certainly, this may in fact be one of the biggest, most viewed combat sports event of all time, of this century, of pick your denominator that you want to go with. I'm talking, of course, about the boxing match between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson that goes down in Arlington, Texas on Friday evening. We're going to talk about all that, but before we get into it, folks, Got to do a little recap.

First time to the show, you know, welcome, happy to have you. But if you're a long time listener, you know we do. We start by talking about Apex 100. And we don't need to spend a ton of time here just because I know it was not the event that people are going to spend time talking about. But if you spent your Saturday night watching this, I think you had a damn good time. A ton of first round finishes like six of them, seven of them, something like that. four bonuses for performances instead of a fight of the night. A delightful co-main event fight between René De Ritter and Gerald Mearschart.

And in your main event, call those protests, basically locks up breakout fighter of the year, rookie of the year, whatever you want to call it, with a first round knockout of Neil Magne, getting himself a ranking in the process. Damn, honestly, a really fun fight card, particularly if you're just going to checking out the highlights afterwards on a rewatch, because then you get to skip all that downtime between fights as all these first round finishes are happening. But a very good time and a good time for us, ladies and gentlemen,

well, a mixed bag for us. Winning week. So never going to be upset about a winning week. Finished up just under two units. Obviously, there was also some other things. We failed a one parlay that took us down a little bit. We kept believing in Carolyn Nicole Kovic at almost plus 400 odds and competitive fight, I think the odds were wrong.

We still didn't get paid off there. And our continued love of Matthew Semmelzberger just keeps hurting us. But already are by sub paying out in a serious way, the exacto there. And just a couple of other, you know, a couple of other small wins of parley. A great sadness did occur, though. And you know where I'm about to go boys and girls. I'm talking about the climb. The climb, if you are new here, it is my journey to string together.

30 bets of minus 500 or better thereabouts we don't have to be exact because if you do that you parlay them all one after the other after the other keep rolling them into each other you can turn a hundred bucks into like 30 grand something just south of 30 grand that's the mission that's the goal and we were four steps up the ladder and last week an unfortunate outcome happened anatoly malikin who was our our pick for the climb loses a close decision to Rug Rug at one championship 169. Personally, I actually thought Malikin was going to win, and the fight was more difficult than we imagined, but I thought he clearly did more, should have got his hand raised.

Ultimately, the decision went to Rugrug, and when you account for one scoring, it's fine. One does proactively score defensive wrestling. Obviously, Rugrug was very good there. It's not like a terrible robbery. Mostly it's a fight no one will ever care to go back and watch because it was a misery. and it was just a misery for us as the climb. We slid back down the mountain, just four steps up it. But the climb continues on, folks.

This will be version 3.0. And we actually started last Saturday. tweeted it out. So hopefully you're following me on that platform. But in the advent of Anatoly Malikin dropping us back to the bottom, we just said, F it, Carlos Prattis, you will be our first leg here. He cashes that out. So we are well on our way back up the mountain.

30 in a row. Some say it can't be done. Some say it can't be done, but I refuse to believe those things. I think it can be done. And I think this is the time we're going to do it. Hopefully, because I've got a couple of them this weekend, so hopefully we can catch right back up to where we were in short order, but we'll get to all of that in just a moment, actually,

because we have fights to talk about boys and girls. It is UFC 309. It is the fight card that some of us have been dreading, but we've all been waiting for it. Me in particular, because I can't tell you how excited I am. Not for any of the fights. You know, I shoot you straight here. Not a great card on paper.

Some highlights, certainly, but not going to blow your hair back with any of this stuff. But mostly I'm excited to be done with this saga at heavyweight. The John Jones, Stepe, Mietichich, Tom Aspinall, thing that has happened that has consumed this weight class for the past year. one way or another, that will get solved come Saturday night. Maybe Sunday morning, you know, depending a little bit. But either John Jones is going to win this fight and he is going to retire or pursue a fight with Alex Pereira and abandon the heavyweight title. Or John Jones is going to win this fight and then fight Tom Aspinall. Or Steve Hamietichich will win and retire.

Or Steve Amitya Chich will win. And hopefully if he wins, he retires because I think there is a chance that if he's, wins, he tries to run it back with Jones, which then would just be a whole other disaster built and waiting for us, et cetera, et cetera. But mostly I just wanted to be done because Tom Aspinall is a wonderful young champion. I'd like us to be kind of in his era instead of clinging on to these last shreds of a bygone era with Jones and Mia Chich. And we are almost there, boys and girls.

We are almost there. But let's dive right into that fight because the main event of 309, is the marquee fight. Not of the weekend. Obviously, there's the boxing. We'll get to that at the end. We're going to stay a MMA show to start. But it is the marquee fight of this fight card.

It is arguably the fight that the promotion has been built, big building to for the last few months. Certainly the fight the promotion has put the most investment in promoting. And that includes things like 300 and UFC 306 and Max Holloway, Ilya. the, you know, they dropped a Dana White dropped a John Jones promo functionally a couple months back. They are heavily invested in this story of John Jones, the goat versus steeped me, itch, the goat. It is, you know, I get it. And honestly, this week I have been, I'm a little more receptive to it than I have been in this fight, primarily because more people are coming out of the woodwork and telling me they're interested in this. And I don't get me wrong.

Not for me. I don't get it. But if people are broadly more interested in this than I am, I don't want to yuck y'all's yum. I want to let y'all have the same fun you're going to have. And, you know, I can have fun with anything because I'll just bet on stuff. And if you bet on stuff, it'll be fun. And my bet on this fight is very, very simple. Because we all know what this fight is, right?

Like, I could give you the rundown and the kind of breakdown of stuff that John Jones is, quote, unquote, undefeated. 18 and O as a betting favorite. He's Steepa Mietich is 5 and 2 as a dog and run through some statistics and stuff. But the things you need to know for this fighter very simply that Steepen Mietich is 42 years old. He has not fought in 42 months. That is, in case you're bad at math, it's over three and a half years. He has not won in over four years. His last win was a lifetime ago.

And he has no wins over fighters. currently competing in the UFC. It is, this is not a real fight in most senses of the word. You know, there's plenty of other content on our programming, YouTube, pod network, on our written word of the website, M.AFind.comGate website. You can get all of this there, but we know what this fight is. This fight is a vanity project for John Jones. It is an opportunity for Steve A. Mietich to get a paycheck and maybe carve out a very

unique piece of history if he can pull off this massive upset. But even this week, John has basically pulled back the curtain and just said exactly what the detractors have been saying, yeah, you know, just today, I'm recording this on Tuesday, just today. There's quotes of John coming out and saying, I think Stipe is a great matchup for me because I'm coming off this major injury. I haven't competed in a long time. I don't really know where my game's at. Steve is a good fight for me. Yeah, just saying the truth of the matter. Yeah. Stipe is old. He's washed. He's well past his prime. This is a low risk fight for me. And with dubious upside, I think, but John certainly believes that this is a monumental

something for his career. And so, hey, man, is where it is in that regard. There you go. The odds do reflect what this is, though. Jones, numbers fluctuate. Minus 650 is about the lowest I found. Come back on Miichich Brown plus 500. And, won't bury the lead here. John Jones is one of my climb legs today. We're also doing climb leg for the boxing. But for the UFC event, we are putting

John Jones in the climb. We may even actually parley him with another fighter that I'll get to momentarily. But he's going to win this fight very easily. Steepage is simply he's an old man and can't compete. And while I think John Jones probably is a slightly diminished

version of his best self, he's still more than good enough to get this done. Stepe maybe could land a punch, but John always has always had a very, very good chin. And if this goes to the ground, John massively advantaged, even if it's just kickboxing, I don't think Steepa has much to offer for him there. So John Jones is level two of our reinvigorated attempt to climb our own gambling Everest. That takes us to the co-main event, boys and girls. And this is really the fight that should interest people, maybe not interest in the

same way that normally that would happen because this is a rematch. But we're talking about one of the most exciting fighters who's ever lived, a guy, one of the four kings of the this, the lightweight, violence weight division of this era. And I'm talking, of course, about former champion Charles Olivera, who is running, excuse me, running things back with Michael Chandler. Oliver, your favorite, minus 255, they come back on Chandler, plus 215. A couple of points to note here. Vegas has both of these fighters fairly well pegged when they're doing odds. Oliver 15 and 4 is a favorite. Chandler 1 and 3 is a dog.

So usually the odds are indicative of how a fight is going to play out on these ones. Vegas seems to know their man. For Chandler, this will be his first fight in two years. The fought in November of 2022 is a Dustin Porier loss at UFC 281. Oliver, of course, been extremely active, I mean, his whole career, but staying active in general fought Armand Saruki at UC 300, lost a very close decision. Split D that I think he had a very credible case to having beaten Armin in that fight. Not a robbery, just a very, very competitive bout.

Oliver obviously still has the goods. And my real thing, though, is these odds seem long, guys. Like, I know Chanelaan hasn't fought in over two years or whatever. I know his record in the UFC is not particularly thrilling or exciting. I know he lost the first fight, got finished brutally in the second round in the first fight. But I also know that he was a hair's breath away from winning the first fight, becoming the UFC lightweight champion. He clubbed Charles Olivera. And this was one of those fights that really cemented who Olivera is.

How he has broken the system, has gamed out MMA, has thought this so smart. And I get hit. I'm going to go to the ground. I can tie up if I need to. I'll just pull a guard. But mostly people will just stand up. And it gives me a 10 count in MMA because they don't want to go for risk of playing in my guard. I'll get to recompose myself, stand up.

And when I get to knock people down, it's curtains for them. Put them in the guillotine. We're done. We saw that play out with Michael Chandler. I don't know if it plays out the same way again. Oliver's got a little more tread on the tires. Sure, maybe Chandler can't do the same things, but I just think the odds here don't reflect the reality

of how competitive this matchup truly is. Yes, I would favor Charles Olivera over, you know, the long haul in fights, but again, we are talking a game of very narrow inches from Chandler having won that first fight, and the odds are putting him as a plus-215 under. underdog. It just, I got a sinking. And for those of you who watch our content, you know that I have no love for Michael

Chandler in my heart. I have a sinking feeling that the long delay, as silly as the whole Connor saga has been, the fact that if he beats Oliver, he'll probably get a lightweight title shot, which will drive me insane. All of this feels, frankly, like Michael Chandler's going to get this done. And even if you don't think he's going to get done, I still maintain the odds are not a true reflection of what this fight should be. And so I am betting Michael Chandler at plus 215 value play.

And maybe it's emotional hedge because if he does win, at least I'll get paid out a good goodly sum. And if he loses, well, that's a shame. I won't be all that heartbroken about it. So let's keep it rolling as we talk about. I think this is the correct ballot order. Frankly, I've seen conflicting reports in various places. But talking about the middleweight.

contest between Bo Nickel and Paul Craig. Bo Nickel, multiple-time NCAA champion, guy who probably could have had a productive, successful senior circuit career in wrestling had he decided to pursue that. But, you know, Uber-MMA prospect, undefeated. Paul Craig, everybody loves him. I, you know, with the face paint, pinch it for pulling off underdog wins. It'll be a really big one if he does easy, plus 750 underdog. against nickel nickel biggest favorite on the card minus 1,000 to Craig's credit he does have an

ability to do this six eight and one as an underdog he had more often than then statistically as likely gets it done as a dog seems very unlikely that it happens here Craig has lost four of his last five he got knocked out by Kyle Borallio at UFC 301 earlier this year and yes I know nickel underwhelmed. Let's just be honest against Cody Brundage at U.S. 3,00. The thing about that is that should be expected. Bo Nickle is still very, very young in his

MMA career. He is obviously a prodigious wrestling talent and seems to be bright, have a bright, bright, bright, bright future in MMA, but it does take time. Go watch Daniel Kormi's early career fights. It does not matter how good you are

at one thing. This is a whole different thing, and there's overlap, but there's still a lot of work to do for him. Cody Brundage, not a world beater, but a guy who knows how to fight. He's been fist fighting a long time, and these are the sorts of fights that are good to help develop a talent.

I do wish Craig, or not Craig, I do wish Nickel was being a little more active because I think that that is a really critical piece to the game for him right now. It's simply getting more cage time. But Paul Craig is a perfect opponent for him. And credit to Craig,

he's been calling for this fight. I mean, he seems to know that this is a fight, that would make sense for him and give him an opportunity. He seems to believe that he has a chance to do something big here. I just don't see it. Nickel is still very, very raw, very developing, but I don't really think, I mean, Craig's crafty, but I'd be a bit surprised if Nickel got tapped by Craig,

just straight up. And more importantly, I think Nickel is starting to do that thing where he realized he is a natural athlete, he has power in his hands. He can hurt people on the feet. And he wants to go to that a little more, continue developing that. And while that could get you in trouble in some places,

I think against Paul Craig, it's a winner. When Craig gets losses, they're usually by knockout. Five of his eight career losses. He has been knocked out. And so I have genuinely considered putting nickel in a parlay with Jones for the climb and may still do that. Maybe instead of doing the John Jones,

just to get the number down a little bit is a little higher than I want for John Jones straight up. We parlay nickel, we get that number down a touch. And I may in fact do that, but also, bow nickel by K.O. is only minus 150 versus the minus 1,000. He is straight up. That is a huge gulf, a huge disparity there that just doesn't make sense. I think nickel, frankly, just, you know, not a world beater on the feet, but I think he's got enough power.

It didn't have that many knockouts in his career, but it doesn't. just seem a lot more likely. That's how he would get this done. Is with the old mitts. So that's what I'm on, and I probably will have him parlay with John Jones as leg one, well, leg two of the climb.

Moving on, Viviani Arrujo, taking on Karini Silva in a women's flyweight contest. Arrza, 5 and 6 in the U.C. lost a unanimous decision to Natalia Silva, aka Natty Iceback

in February while Karine Silva is undefeated in the promotion and all of her wins have been pretty solid three finishes and most recently picks up a UD against Ariani to Silva back in April. Straight up this fight

is just a litmus test. Viviana Rujo is basically gatekeeper to the top 10 she's top 15 very talented woman. All of her loss have come against good competition but you look at the competition it is and it's It's, I mean, again, she's just gatekeeper to the top ten.

It's Amanda Hebas. It's Alexa Grasso. It's Natty Ice. It's Caleb Chukagian. Talking about very, very good names to lose to. And she is the filter between the top of the division and the just hanging on to her rankings. And so Karini is Silva, 4 and O's getting that opportunity. And I think she'll get it done.

But this, I think this fight is a lot closer than the odds are suggesting. Arrucho is a scrapper. This is a big step up in competition. for Silva. Arrujo can grapple, and that's kind of where Silva wants to make her money. Granted, I do think Arrucho is going to give Crini Silva the fight that she wants, and so probably favors Greenie Silva, but the odds here do not suggest to me the appropriate split on this fight.

As a result, I probably should be betting Arrucho, but when I was looking down my list of Betz's card, I have a ton of underdog action. and this is the fight I feel the one of the fights I feel the least confident in in taking that value bet there. Again, could totally be correct. Not really sure. Maybe I'll pull the trigger. If the number keeps moving, if Erujo gets plus 250 plus 270, I'll probably just have to take a stab on her at that point. But for the time being, that's just where we're going.

I'm just going to stick away from this for now and reevaluate his thing. get a little closer to hand. Moving on, Mauricio Ruffi, taking on Hamis Lontop in a lightweight contest. This one will be really short. Ruffy, a minus 800 favorite, the comeback on Lontop plus 625. Ruffie coming off that win over Jamie Malarkey back in Maine

his UFC debut. On top, this fought twice in the UFC. He lost to Slava Claus, is splity back in August. I want to say that. Both guys are from Contendor Cies, 2023, and in my breakdown, I didn't expect too much from them. You know, Ruffy, I thought was a little bit more talented as a prospect longtop.

Sort of just a dude, maybe he's young enough to do a little bit of something if you can get with a good team, but in general, I would just favor Ruffie to get this done, but I would never, never place a wager at these odds. they are categorically insane for them to be so high on a guy's unproven as Maricio Ruffie is. And so easy, easy stay away for me. And frankly, super odd that this is the main court fight. Chris Wyden is fighting on this fight card. And as of right now, he's not on the main card.

And that kind of boggles my mind. Granted, we're about to get to that fight. We've got one more fight to talk to before we get to it. Fight could suck. But still, we're talking about former UFC champion Chris White. Bidman, some other names on this card, and this is getting really high positioning for reasons that I don't quite understand. Nevertheless, we press on to the prelim portion of USC 309, and the prelim main event, at least as things stand currently, is a bantamweight contest between Jonathan Martinez and Marcus McGee. Martinez, your underdog, plus 115, the comeback on McGee minus 130.

A couple of things to note here. Martinez was on a very good run, got a ranking six-fight win streak in the U.C. Lost to Jose Aldo at UFC 301, though, and Aldo's return to the promotion. Meanwhile, McGee has been awesome since joining the UFC last year. He's 3-0 in the promotion, three finishes, three bonuses. Most recently, he fought in January, knocked out Gaston Bolognaz. McGee made the all-violence team in 2023 at Pantamweight, because of his just unbelievable run at that point.

And so really, really excited for him to get this opportunity because that's frankly what this is. Jonathan Martinez just lost. He's going to have to defend his position. McGee is a guy on the rise, gets a crack to maybe break into the top 15 of one of the sports deepest divisions. This is a really tough fight for me to call. You know, Martinez only been finished once. I think these guys are just going to come in and throw. But McGee is very, very powerful.

very dangerous. And so instead of me making the decision, I thought, boys, it's time to bring it back. It is time to bring back the chat GPT bet of the week. Not only am I going to bring it back, I went and did the research because I was like, where am I out with chat GPT right now? 21 and 10 overall on chat GPT bets of the week.

The robots know more than I do. They're picking it a 66% win clip. That's profitable. I don't care what the odds you're betting. and the chat GPT bets of the week are usually close odds because that's what I'm looking for when I do them. Fights as are close that I maybe don't have a great lean one way or the other and a fight that I'm interested in. And that is this fight to a T. So I went to the robots to ask them their breakdown.

And this is what they said. It was a long breakdown. Ultimately, we're going to a decision. And the punchline here is, after three competitive and action-packed rounds, Jonathan Martinez wins by unanimous decision 2928, 2928. His technical striking, especially the leg kicks, proved too much for McGee, who showed a heart and toughness but couldn't overcome the accumulated damage. And so we are betting Jonathan Martinez at underdog odds.

And I will just note when I was doing kind of a comprehensive chat GPT roundup, look, it misses, you know, 10 losses in there. A couple of those losses were tight fights. predictions. For whatever reason, next time Jack Della Madalena fights, I'm sticking to chat

GPT word forward. It exactly predicted Jack Della's previous two performances, a third round KOTCO over Gilbert Burns in a competitive fight. And then,

what is the other one? I have to pull that up right now. This is bad podcasting, but correctly predicted that. And then, oh, of course. course, the Kevin Holland split decision correctly predicted a split decision over Kevin Holland.

So chat GPT next time Jack Della, don't care who he's fighting, don't care what the odds are. We're going to it. We're going to see if it just has a great read on Jack Della. But we are going with John Martinez. Hopefully we move to 22 and 10 on chat GPT bets the week. And honestly, I almost brought it back for the next fight because this is also very closely lined. And frankly, I don't have a wonderful feel for this fight. but I do have a bet.

I am talking about the aforementioned Chris Wydenman. He's taking on Eric Anders in a middleweight contest. Wyden, your underdog, plus 110, come back on Anders. Miner's 125 is the betting favorite. Weidman, you know the story at this point, middleweight champion, catastrophic leg injury, terrible recovery, multiple surgeries, multiple issues during recovery. At one point gave interviews saying he wasn't sure if he was going to keep his leg not just a horrible, horrible thing that befell him that he has overcome, you know, came back.

Obviously not the fighter he once was when he was when he was a middleweight champion, but he is coming off a technical decision win over Bruno Silva in March. Anders, he's lost three of five. He is coming off a win himself, beat Jamie Pickett back in March, but never rose to the highs that Wyden did and also appears to be pretty firmly on the decline of his career. this is a matchup between two guys who you're not going to get their best versions of themselves. Usually this would be a, hey, we should probably just stay away. But kind of feel like Wyman is undervalued that he should be a reasonably sized favorite.

Yes, I understand where he's at professionally in his career, but Anders is also not in a great spot. And he just was never nearly as good as Wyatman. I think Wydenman maybe he can have some success with wrestling, though Anders has historically been very good at defending that. And it's just a cleaner boxer than Anders. So as long as he can avoid getting that, you know, getting killed, it'll be okay. Moving on takes us to a one of the most fun fights of the weekend. Jim Miller taking on Damon Jackson in a lightweight contest.

Miller lost to Bobby Green, a UFC 300. Before that, he's on a really good run. and 1-5-a-6. Still an underdog, though, plus 145s. He takes on Damon Jackson. Jackson most recently lost a UD to Chepin-Maris-Kahl. He's lost three or four. He does appear to kind of be in a real steep decline.

And for that reason, I'm back in Jim Miller. Also, because I love Jim Miller. Like, you just want to be on the right side of history, and back in Jim Miller is the right side of history. But I think this fight's going to be really fun. I think Damon Jackson, I am concerned about. out where his career is going, the performances, just how he's looked lately. And while Jim Miller is certainly old, he's still scrappy as hell.

He's a gamer in there. And I think he's got an opportunity to have fun scrambles with Damon Jackson, probably be a little bit cleaner on the feet and just sort of win this in the same way Jim Miller wins fights in this day and age. So like I said, I got a ton of underdog action. That is one. And we move on to a heavyweight contest. Again, could have been a chat GPT bet. Marcine Tybura, taking on a janada, Denise,

Tybora, the betting favorite, minus 130. Denise, plus 120 as the underdog. Denise coming in off of contender series, already picked up two wins in the UFC this year. Carl Williams, Austin Lane, they're not very good fighters. But former glory kickboxing guy and has looked at least pretty decent in all phases. Tyborah, you know, Tybor. He's been around forever.

He's on a really good run, but he did lose. to Sergey Spiebac back in August. This is, Tyborah is the gatekeeper to the top 10 at heavyweight, a guy who is talented, going to pick up more wins and losses, going to stay ranked for a while, despite being old,

just sort of the everyman's heavyweight, kind of good at everything, good enough to sort of be the test for everybody to find their place in the division. And the question is, does Janice belong in the top of the division, They're giving him an early crack at it, I think mostly because of the glory background and sort of what that is meant to a lot of recent signies from the UFC. Frankly, I think this line is just accurately valued.

I do favor Marlene Taibura. I think he's craftier than probably he gets credit for and could absolutely convince me that he comes in, gets a clench, finds a trip, and takes over the fight very quickly. But if he can't, Denise is a much better striker. He's going to tune Taibura up. Tuibura has been chinned before. Denise, not a monster hitter, but he packs enough of a punch to let you know he's there.

So I think this is like a 60-40 fight, and the odds are a little shorter than that, but not enough to think there's a ton of value. So for me, I just ultimately stayed away from this one. And we continue the march on. Just a few fights left to talk about on this fight card

before we get to the boxing stuff. And this one is, also it won't take a long time to break down. It's Mickey Gall taking on Rami's Brahimaj in a welterweight contest. Gall, slight favorite minus 125. Come back on Brahimaj plus 105. I will say Vegas does seem to have both these dudes pegged. Braymage never won as a dog. Gall, four and two is a favorite. And it's pretty easy to see why if you go back and look at his resume.

The guy's gall beats aren't good and he loses to everybody that is good. Brahimaj doesn't appear to be good, so Gall probably has an opportunity here. We're going to get a scrambling fight. Both dudes want to grapple. I think I favor Gaul just to be the guy who more consistently gets top position and thus wins the grappling exchanges, but I just don't want to have any money invested on this fight. It's a fight that I'm not even that stoked to watch.

So I just want a full pass on. I am not passing on this next piece of action, though. it is Basil Hoff is taking on Oban Elliott in a well-to-weight contest, the second fight of the evening on Saturday. Hafez is a pretty size of $1,000 plus 210. The comeback on Oban minus 250. Hafez is one-in-one in the UFC. Made a lot of headlines as he barely lost to Jack Delamette Elena in his debut on short notice,

and then picks up his first win in the promotion by beating Mickey Gall back in June. Elliot, contender series dude, 2 and O in the UFC, picked up a UD over Preston Parsons back in July. And straight up, I just think there's value on Hafez here. The line does not seem to reflect the reality of this fight. Hafez is a scrappy, scrappy dude. And I suppose that the odds makers believe Oban Elliott is simply going to grapple better than Hafez because we're going to get grappling exchanges.

Obama maybe is a better defensive wrestler, maybe. But, you know, maybe even a better scrambler. But Hafez is game as hell. Tough dude. He's going to put the pressure in. And frankly, I've just never been sold on it on Oban Elliott. And I think back that if Hafez had won the Jack Della fight, which is very, very, very close to doing, many people scored it for him, this line would be nowhere near what it is right now. But because, you know, one judge saw it one way.

now here we are. While the Mickey Gaul win didn't dazzle, okay, fair enough. That's not a bad reason to be skeptical of him. I am just also skeptical of Owen. And so at a big price like this, I took another dog shot. I'm on Basil Hoffa's at plus 210.

And that brings us to our first Friday of the evening, a fight where once again, I'm going to have action. And once again, it's going to be on your underdog, who in this contest is Eduardo Mora. She's a plus 125 underdog to Veronica Hardy, in a women's flyweight contest. Hardy minus 145 and kind of the main headline,

the first takeaway on this one. Mora, this is her, I don't know if it's her career flyweight debut, but it is her UFC flyweight debut, and she has twice missed weight for strawweight bouts, and so she is bumping up a weight class. And I think come Saturday when you look at this, she'll say, yeah, that makes sense

because she is not a small woman. She would have been a very big strawway. I think she's still going to be bigger than Hardy. And more important, that, I think she has talent. I think she has potential. I like Mora coming off a contender series, although she's a little old to be like a true elite elite prospect,

but I think she's got a lot of skill. She can have success grappling, Veronica Hardy. She's going to be the bigger woman. And I think this is, I would say, slightly advantage towards her over Hardy, despite Hardy's good win streak, three fights in a row. Full credit to that. I think Mora probably actually should be the favor here,

get a little bit of value. and so taking another one. I'm really feeling myself today because I got a ton of action down on this and most of its underdogs. Hopefully we can hit at 50% rate and walk away as a winner on UFC 309. But now we got to talk about just two fights. I'm not doing the whole boxing card. There are other people who do breakdowns if you're into that stuff.

But there are two very big fights happening. Like I said at the top of the show on Friday in Arlington, Texas. The biggest one, the one that is sucking. all the air out of the room, grabbing all the headlines, pulling in all the attention. Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson, eight rounds, eight two-minute rounds, 14-ounce clubs, professional boxing match. There is gallons of ink spilled on this fight on our website already. You have heard probably, if you're listening to this, you've probably seen our shows,

et cetera, et cetera, probably heard me talk. And I do not want to be a major downer on this fight. I feel like I've done enough of that. but mostly what I'm trying to get across is that this is serious business that you don't play boxing and that a 58-year-old man fighting a guy 30 years his junior, it's dangerous. There are real consequences that can happen. And my great hope is that everybody involved understands that. And nothing terribly tragic goes down on Friday.

Either way, though, however Friday goes, I'll be very, very surprised. if Jake Paul doesn't get the win. If they get into a real fight, Jake Paul is definitely going to win if they're both taking it seriously and fighting just because he's 30 years younger than him. And that's all the analysis. You don't need more.

It is simply that. Mike Tyson looks in unbelievable shape for being 58. He remains 58. And that is too much of a deficit to overcome. If not, if this is a glorified sparring session, and it feels really weird that Jake Paul would agree to do that and then lose to Mike Tyson. I think particularly when you watch it, like maybe Tyson can compete early. I think as this fight goes a little long, Jake's just going to jab him a bunch, just kind of stay out there and pick up a relatively straightforward win.

Egos are stroked. Everybody feels fine. If it's somehow a draw, everybody leaves happy. We push our bet that's okay. But I have a substantial position on Jake Paul to get this done. And so that's because I just the odds right now, I guess I didn't give those. Jake Paul's only minus 210 at some places with the comeback on Tyson at plus 170. The explanation to me that makes the most sense is that people truly believe Mike, like they still believe in the aura of Mike Tyson.

He's 58 years old guys. I think that this is a gift of a price tag. And so I have wagered fairly heavily with the major understanding being sometimes. That doesn't go well for me. So, tailor at your own risk, but that's where I'm out on that. And then the best fight of the weekend. Full stop, the best thing that is happening in combat sports takes place on Friday night is the co-main event to the Jake Paul Tyson, Mike Tyson fight. And it is the rematch between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano of the fight of the year.

Two years ago, and honestly boxing. Certainly women's boxing, one of the most consequential important significant. best female boxing fights of all time, two of the top pound for pound female boxers in the world. This is just a marquee fight that I am honestly a little bit sad that it's happening on this event. It's great because it will get, I mean, this is the broadest, it could be broadcast, the Netflix show that it's going to be seen by hundreds of millions of people. There is no bigger platform for these two women to compete.

But it, at least thus far, it does feel like the Tyson Paul of it all is overshunds. shattering this to a degree that it doesn't deserve because it's the best fight of the weekend. But very simply, a couple of things here. Obviously, their first fight was unbelievable. Very close split decision went for Katie Taylor. Since then, both women have got back in there. Katie Taylor did suffer a loss and avenged it. Amanda Serrano has continued to beat everybody not named Katie Taylor. Great timing for this fight. Both women are a little older, arguably approaching the end of their prime.

but mostly I don't know who's going to win. I kind of think there might be a touch of value on Amanda Serrano, but at only plus 100, I'm not doing anything like that. What I've done is this will be my first leg of the climb this weekend because we're just taking this fight goes to decision at minus 575. The first fight obviously went to decision. 18 of Taylor's 24 fights have gone to decision. That number is very different for Serrano,

but like 10 of her last 11 have gone to decision. basically as she knocks out women that she's supposed to knock out and the rest of it it's a very very competitive fight. I think we're looking for a very, very competitive fight again in this one, very nip-tuck affair. As such, I'm just taking this fight, goes to the decision. If the number gets bigger,

if Serrano gets to plus 130, 150, for sure I'm betting plus 150. 130, 120, we're going to start considering it maybe taking a bet there and adding it in. but ladies and gentlemen, that's it. We've done it. That is the UFC 309 and the Paul Tyson boxing gambling preview by No Betts Bard. And I feel like we gave it enough credit. Both of these events are very big spectacles, but you probably tell them the way I talked about things. I'm not that excited about them.

I mostly want them to be older, or over older, Freudian slipped there because we're dealing with such old people fighting. that feels a little bit elder, abussy could be in store for us this weekend. I certainly hope that is not. Hope everyone gets paid has a good time. And I hope if you're watching, you have a great time, because I always want y'all to have fun.

We're doing a watch party. You can join us and have fun. We're doing two watch parties, one for each. You can join us, watch me and Mike Heck have fun. And then it's on to Macau. That is right. We are going from New York City to UFC Macau, Piotr-Yan taking on Davidson,

in Figueroa in a fight that has a surprising amount of stakes for the Bannemweight division, particularly as UFC Bannemate champion. Mavad Valdivili is really transparently not interested in fighting Umar and Margamenev. If Figgi Smalls goes here and beats Pior deyon, Umar might get jumped, uh, plus the rest of the card. A lot of decent fights. I mean, the prelims aren't just horrifically bad, but, uh, some other very important, very good fights here.

Janjohn-John Nanting on Tapith Ritchi, Volcanoz de Mccles, Ulberg, some good stuff happening in Macau, and that's what we'll be. But until then, keep a locked-in-a-fighting for all your coverage this weekend. Thank you very much for listening because you make my job work, and I appreciate you endlessly for it. Love y'all. See you next week.