MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: What Can We Expect From Conor McGregor's Return At UFC 329?

Episode Date: July 8, 2026

The Mac is back! On Saturday, Conor McGregor returns to the octagon after a five-year layoff, taking on Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 in Las Vegas. The bout is a rematch of their 2013 fight that McGregor won, but more than that, it’s a test to see what, if anything, McGregor has left to offer — and No Bets Barred is here to break it down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Luke Noseda, AKA Long Island Luke, of Morning Kombat, the Main Card Minute, and Prop Quiz to dive into all things UFC 329. Topics discussed include whether McGregor can recapture the magic against Holloway, whether Paddy Pimblett can win a fight against an elite lightweight, a surprisingly deep undercard, the latest update on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 159 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I am your host of MAAfighting.com. You probably already know it, but it's a great goddamn website. And we have a great goddamn card ahead of us this week because that is right, ladies and gentlemen. The Mac is back. UFC 329 in Las Vegas, Nevada, features the return of Connor after a five-year layoff,

where he runs it back with Max Hollis. away and the rest of the card quite frankly way better than i was expecting when conner fights you don't always get a good rest of the card because you don't need it the ufc knows that they they've got you with the main event but uh not the case maybe they were afraid that connor might pull out last minute like he did the last time you're supposed to fight but whatever the reason uc 329 is a maybe not stacked but a very very strong card top to bottom only a couple of fights that i couldn't care less about honest on this card and to break things down to talk about them with me. My dear friend, he is here basically every pay-per-view at this point.

You know, one or two things. A guy I didn't get to see this week. We were recording this on Tuesday and I am not going to be part, unfortunately, of this week's morning combats pregame preview. Usually I get to see him either before we do this. But I'm speaking, of course, Long Island, Luke, also of the main card minute and also, of course, of prop quiz. Long. How are we doing?

I like how you call me long there. I was trying it out. I want to try it. I like that. That was pretty good. Jed, good to be here as always. And unfortunately, no one is having a pregame preview this week. We will preview the card on MK., but Luke's in Columbia, you know, so he can't even come into studio either. So that's how this week is going. But I'm excited, you know, the return of penis and I guess the return of McGregor as well, you know.

It's the return of the return of the return of Damien. penis and and his newfound Wendy's special deal. The man is making moves. Go get you a penis lunch special at Wendy's if you are in Aruba, ladies and gentlemen. But that all comes, man, I'm going to get yelled at so much for my bosses for the start of the show already. A couple of words of note before we dive into things.

You may notice that I sound a little weird, not my micro- phone setup or anything like that. I am still battling back from the holiday weekend and 4th of July celebrations. My voice is not all the way with us. It is better than the between the links we did on Monday, hopefully. But got to get this done because I am going on vacation, Luke, so I will not be working this card

also something that my bosses aren't in love with. But I had this plan for since January. I booked. I was like, oh, it looked like, I don't know when international fight week will probably be end of July because we're doing the White House card on July 4th. So I will take the week after that off because it'll be fine. They might not even have a card the week after the White House card because it would be so silly to do so. Come to find out, UFC White House does not take place on America's birthday, but on Donald

Trump's birthday and a month before. And then all of my plans come especially to ruin his Conner Greger decides he's finally coming back. Pretty poor timing. But Luke, I don't know about you because I know you obviously work in the industry. Every single event you do a full card watch along. I was talking to Mike about this yesterday. I'm super pumped for this weekend. I'm going on a golf trip with my buddies.

This is our ninth year in a row doing this. So it is one of the things I look forward to the most every year. We will be watching World Cup games after we're done golfing in the evening. But also, the second TV, I'll throw up the fight. Some of them like fights a little bit, but I just get to enjoy a fight card purely as a fan, right? Like I won't, I don't have to do a post show, nothing. And so I get to have some drinks and do it. I am very excited.

And I hope you are excited for this card as well, even if you don't get the same experience I do. Dude, I mean, I am very excited for this card. First things first, I want to say, I hope you have a blast on your trip. Second thing, second, dude. I can't remember the last time I watched a card just like straight up enjoying it. Besides, I mean, I did just miss one for a bachelor party. We had it on in the background. Not the same thing because, you know, not everyone's into it, whatever.

But I will say just the not having, I'm sure you can appreciate this, not having to talk through six hours of fights. It's a glorious thing. Just having to sit there and indulge in them. At the same time, I love doing my watch longs, and I am definitely looking forward to this one. Because this card, I'd rate it like an A-minus. This is a damn good card right here.

It's a great card, man. Yeah. I don't do the full-core watch. as much as you do, as we only do them for our watch parties for pay-per-views, but those are always exhausting. And, but then, like, as I was talking to my, like, I get events off occasionally, but I get an apex off, right? Like, it's the, it's an apex card, and I don't watch that. Like, no offense to the sport, I will catch up on the fights on Sunday, because I need to know what happened for my job or whatever. But, like, I, if I get a Saturday off, I'm out, I'm going to do

something with that time, because it's, unless there was a big event that I'd be missing. This is, I get the best of both worlds. I will be drinking all day, playing a bunch of golf, then come back, drink and watch the World Cup, drink and eat dinner, drink and watch fist fights. It's going to be a great day. I am super excited. Let's get into the card, Luke. One last piece of housekeeping business, just for posterity's sake. I am back to losing on the year. I had a tough run at UFC White House. I just took a lot of bets for funsies, and many of them ended up not cashing. So I'm down to I'm down up just under five units total on the year. The climb, two steps up.

Really, like, mathematically, it's like we're three steps up, but officially done two steps. We're not quite to that threshold for three. Big climb back coming in this weekend. And Luke, we're going to do something different. Tried this the last show. The last show I did was for UFC White House. We tried it.

I really liked it. And so I want to do it again. We're going to reverse. We're inverting the car. We want to build to this main event between Connor McGregor and Max Holloway, not start at the top. If you are a listener to this podcast, I guess you can just skip to the end. But I'm tired of us ending with a whimper at Alessandro Costa versus Cody Dern. You know, let's end.

Let's build our way to something exciting, much like we will be doing on Saturday when this card goes down. And so, Luke let us start with the early prelims, the first fight of the evening, a flyweight contest between Alessandro Costa and Cody Durdon. Costa, your betting favorite minus 275. The comeback on Durdon plus 210. Costa, three and two over his last five. Knocked out match, Schnell about a month ago. Meanwhile, Durdon, one and four over his last five,

looked to be in a win or go home scenario his last time out, and he won, picked up a unanimous decision over Jophelio in April. So now he gets to run. re-up way to go covington's own uh and this is also this is a weird fight because alessander costa is the guy stepping in a short notice o'day osborne was supposed to face cody durden costa who long island is he ranked do you know i mean now with these two rankings it's hard to know who's i'm going to say no because he just fought uh schnell yeah i don't see him in the meta he's not he's not but i believe costa has been ranked before um

But very rarely do you see a guy coming in on such short notice be this big a betting favorite, but he is against North Georgia's own Cody Durdon. Luke, how are you feeling about this one? I mean, Cody Durden, I guess we kind of just answered our question, but like it's the only reason he has a job because he fights so often. Like you said he won his last fight to keep his job. I'd argue he should have got either way. But I mean, he maintained it.

Good for him. He did cash, like, plus 500 his last time out. So, you know, pretty good job. there, Cody. But striking numbers, Jed here, pretty similar. Costa does land more. He gets hit less. Durdon negative striking differential. But the wrestling is really where I'm looking at here. Durdon averages four takedowns per 15 minutes, which I didn't realize. I didn't think he was that much of a wrestler. He's taken down his last five opponents. Costa, 86% takedown defense, which is actually pretty good, but he was also taken down in all three of his UFC losses. So that's clearly where he loses the fight.

Definitely a path here for Durdon to wrestle his way to another. upset and Jed not to bury the lead but I may or may not already be putting money on another Cody on this card I cannot do it again here there's two bets I like here though one cost money line I don't think it's that expensive minus 250 on my book right now I think that's a solid parlay piece the other bet I like here though fight end by KO is plus one 30 interesting majority of costus pro wins have come by Kio a third of Durden's wins have come by Kio and both guys been K-Oed multiple times before. I like that bet a lot.

That's interesting. Always, look, you know, flyweight unders, could they be back? It's always a possibility. To answer your previous question, the reason Cody Durden is still employed is he, it's not just that he fights all the time. He is stepping in on

short notice all the time. His last bout, he stepped in. He replaced Lucas Rocha to fight Jaffa Filio, got that win. Before that, he replaced Raphael Estav. against Alain Nassimento. He lost that one. Famously in the MMA fighting circles,

Cody Durdin also replaced Alessandro Costa, who was supposed to fight Matt Schnell in 2024. I know this specifically because that was the first season of the M.A. fighting fantasy draft league. Mike Heck drafted Costa thinking that he had gotten a steal and then instead was left very, very sad when Cody Durden replaced him. So now we come full circle as Dostas steps in as a replacement to fight Durdon. Based on what you said, I actually think Durd might be a bit of a live dog here.

I also just don't want to bet him, though, is sort of the thing, right? Like, I do think he can get the wrestling going. Costa has historically been a decent defensive wrestler, but he gives them up, which can be a problem here. I think you're getting a decent price. If you are not, if you're inclined to take sort of swings like this, I think you do a lot worse than Cody Durdner as a dog. But I already have a, honestly, I just have a lot of action on this card.

And I did not want to expose myself to it. In part, I've been quite bad at picking Cody Darden fights. I pulled up my topology. I think I've gotten like two of ten correct on Cody Durdily. So I see value in him when he leaves. loses and I mean, partly I think I'm picking them bad because he's replacing people and I'm just not that good at the short notice picks. But I'm passing on this one. I do think Darden might be a live dog.

A couple of interesting dogs on this card for me that I will be taking now. So spoiler alert as we move forward and let us move forward to the middleweight division for, quite frankly, Long Island. The fight I care the least about in this entire card. If how many fights is this card? What are we looking at? 14. 14 is too many fights for any fight card. 12 should be the absolute maximum.

And I could get us to that number pretty easy by cutting this fight. A middleweight contest between Ryan Gandra and Zachary Reese. Gandra, your betting favorite minus 135 of the comeback on Reese plus 110. Gandra won his UFC debut. It's last time out. Knocked out Jose Medina in February. Reese, meanwhile, dead down the middle over five. Two wins, two losses and a no contest.

A split decision loss to Michelle Paheta in February is his last outing. Luke, let me just tell you, Gandro is a guy off contender series. I did not rate him highly as a prospect. I have not been 100% on my contender series, you know, prospect ratings, largely done pretty well. But the people I have missed have not been bad. bad, like, low-tier, guys. I graded him as a one-star guy, and nobody I've graded as a one-star prospect

has ended up to be, like, a real player. I don't think much of him, Zach Rees. I also, I mean, he's a much more established commodity at this point, but I don't think much here. It's probably Kandra, but, like, Reese's been around the block, veteran dude, you know? Maybe he can scrap this out. I just don't want any action.

on a fight that I'm not going to watch. And I really don't want to have to go back and rewatch afterwards to see if I got my money in good. So I'm out. Dude, I'm kind of shocked at the one star there thing because admittedly, I don't know much about Gandra. You know, I probably saw it as Contender Series fight. I don't actually know.

And beating Jose Medina really doesn't prove much to anyone because I don't think maybe he has one win in the UFC. I'm pretty sure Jose Medina is winless in the UFC. So, again, doesn't tell us much. But dude, the numbers of Gandra are. are actually insane. Granted, it's only through two Zufa fights, and they lasted like a combined three minutes,

so definitely take it with a grain of salt. But he lands over 13 strikes per minute while only getting hit with one strike per minute. There's zero chance he can maintain that in his UFC career, but if he can even average half of that, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with. Reese, on the other hand, you know, like you said,

middle of the road, lands as often as he gets hit, just kind of gotten by so far. I've never really been too impressed with him. I think a split decision loss to Michelle Pereira is Zach Rees' best win, and obviously he did not win that fight. Michelle looks washed his shit right now. So that's arguably the best thing you've ever done, and you should have probably beaten him at this point.

Odds are close enough here, minus 1.30. I'll gladly just take Gandra Money Line in a parlay. I don't even mind it. One star is making me nervous, Jed, but otherwise I thought that was great value. I just pulled up my notes I take notes as I watch Continu Series and for Gandra a big part of it

he was a huge favorite on Gendon series minus 550 betting favorite over Trent Miller who's you know an 8 and 2 guy but not that good is 30 years old he's now 31 so he's old so I don't think he's much of a prospect I comped him to bad Johnny Walker

like to a less athletic Johnny Walker. And, you know, he hits hard. He is extremely aggressive. And that'll get you, frankly, pretty far in the sport. But I just don't think it's a high ceiling. That being said, he doesn't need a high ceiling to beat Zachary. So I think he probably gets it done.

But not for me. If I was going to be playing this, I'd be looking at the under props for funzi's. Not a specific side here. Let us keep going. I love that we can just breeze through the bad fights. Yeah. Which we've done here. This fight is not a bad fight, though.

Quite frankly, I am actually a little bit interested in this fight now. No betting or actually let me check because earlier today I looked and did not have any odds because it is a replacement fight. We'll see. It does look like we've got some odds down. They are, as you would imagine, quite large. I'm talking about the bantamweight contest, Farid Bosharat, taking on John Garza. as a late replacement opponent. Basharat, looking like he's around a minus 600 betting favorite

to comeback on Garza plus 440. Basharat, undefeated prospect 6 now in the UFC, brother of Javid, who is no longer in the UFC, signed with the PFL. He's coming off a split decision win over Jean Matamato in February. I thought Matsumoto won. I think most people did, but not like a... There's a case that Basharot certainly won, but I think that more people thought Matsumoto won.

Garza, meanwhile, making his UCDB, 6 and 1 as a professional. Some decent amateur experience in there as well. He is stepping in on short notice replacing Ethan Ewing, who pulled out with an injury. He tried to battle through couldn't. I went looked at him a little bit along Island, just because I was like, oh, who's this guy coming in? Had some people say he's pretty fun, so when he looked,

he seems really fun, right? Like undeveloped prospect, he is super young. He's like 23 or 24 years old. I can pull that up right now. Yeah. So he's super young, got a lot of growing to do. But very aggressive. Works, hits the body, swings hammers.

Just seems like a guy who will be fun if nothing else. And maybe he has some juice to develop into like a real prospect here. He's a guy who was going to fight for the Fury FC Championship, who a guy who I would have expected to be like on Contender Series this season. Instead he gets, you know, takes his opportunity, gets right in and gets a ranked guy. Basharat on either the media or the meta,

I don't remember, is ranked for the UFC. And so huge opportunity for him, if nothing else. That being said, I think obviously Basharat's a more polished fighter, much higher acumen. There's a reason the odds are this big. You could throw Bashrod as a parley piece. I think that wouldn't be unreal. or unreasonable, but I don't have any bets because there wasn't a line now.

I might add it just to keep, like, have something down, but probably not for me. I was going to say, I also didn't technically take this bet yet because there wasn't lines when I kind of looked this up, but minus 600. That sounds about right. Basharat, two to one striking differential averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes. Not only that, he's taken down all six of his UFC opponents at least twice. I unlike you Jed did not do any research on Garza as far as watching tape or anything. He's young.

He took the fight on short notice. Three of his seven opponents have losing records. You know, this isn't someone I'm exactly like, oh, he looks great. You said he's exciting. I'll take your word for that. But, uh, I mean, Basharat should win this fight. I'm going to take him money line in a parlay, but it is pretty expensive. I was looking at that over two and a half as well just because I feel like Basharat tends to go

long, but who knows since Garza is coming in on short notice. I'm going to, like, wait and see on this fight because none of the other props are out besides the over-under and the money line. So I'm going to, like, see what Basharat decision is, see what Basharat finishes and kind of take it from there. But either way, I'm leaning, obviously, his way. Makes sense. Let's move on. Still in the early prelim section, things are about to pick up. Business is about to get booming, and it starts right here in the middle-weight division.

You might not know him, but I certainly do. I'm talking about Damien. Baba Yaga penis taking on Caesar Al-Meda the Arruban fighter is one of my guys coming off contender series

I think he looks he's basically the same guy as the Tabu Goti A who is one of my guys and has been taking the UFC by storm for the most part he is not a huge favorite though minus 200 against Caesar Almeida who is plus 165

Pinas has 1-0 in the UFC knocked out West Shultz set up fight in February. Almeida 3 and 2 in the UFC lost a unanimous decision to Cesari Olik Seychic, the other Oluq Seychuk, who I think is actually pretty good back in December. Almeida, hails from a kickboxing background, has a trilogy of fights with Alex Pereira, never been knocked out, like a lot of things that, in general, I understand why this

line is as close as it is, right? Because Peanoss has mostly done his work by just thumping dudes in the feet. and that's where Almeida, you know, butters his bread, but Long Island, Damien is an athlete. I think that he could just sort of do the overwhelming power thing if it had to and maybe work with that. Also, he's got a little bit of grapple.

He's got some submissions on his resume. I think he can get takedowns. Either way, I think he's going to get his hand raise. I have a bet on Damien Pinos at minus 200 and also Long Island. Let's get weird. Let's have a little bit of fun here. Pinos Pai submission plus 1,300 at my book.

Again, a guy with a strong kickboxing background in Cesar Almeda, the path of least resistance to defeat this man is absolutely taking him down. He's never been knocked out. He's only lost decisions. It's never been submitted either, I guess. But you take the kickboxer down, you do your best work on the feet. Maybe he ends up taking him down, he pounds him out, and I lose his bet. that's possible.

But in his third fight, David and Peanow's got a dark stroke submission and I'm like, that's all I need. It's all I need to see. Submission plus 1,300, let's live the dream. I'm poor. I put $10 on it, but I want to have some fun. I mean, that's fun.

If I know it, I'm... Penis is fun, dude. Penis is impressive. All he knows is finishes. All 10 of his pro fights, not gone the distance. Almeida, he has won two of his last three, but he is coming off that loss. Jed,

mentioned the Wendy's meal in Aruba. Safe to say Arubians everywhere will be indulging in the penis meal. But seriously, penis, five inches longer with the reach, and he lands twice as many strikes per minute. Almeida, solid kickboxer like you mentioned, but he often fights counterpunchers. Not so much guys who will come at him like penis, so I'm interested to see how this one plays out. I know you said it could go long, but fight does not go the distance at minus 300 here.

Considering penis always finishes and majority of Almeda's fights have also been chaos. That feels like a solid parlay piece to me, and I will gladly see myself out after all those terrible jokes. You know, we're doing great. I'm going to get censored like hell for this one, and that's okay. We move on to the final early prelim bout of the evening. A women's flyweight contest is Tracy Cortez takes on Wang Tong. A pretty close to pick him. Tong is minus 120 appears.

Tracy Cortez is minus 105. Cortez 3 and 2 of her last 5 Rear Naked Choke Loss to Aaron Blanchfield In November was her last outing. Wang three-fight win streak after the massive upset loss. She picked up a unanimous decision win over Eduardo Mora in February, but she did miss weight,

something to sort of be aware of. Long on, how you see in this one? Well, first of all, we got Wang and penis on the same card. Do you think when I'm thinking, Jed, a little prospect parlay? Yeah, 100%. Yeah, that's what it is. All right.

Tracy, dude, I'm shocked at these odds. I got to say, shocked maybe a stretch, but I'm surprised at these odds. Tracy, really solid striking number. She only really loses when she gets out-wrestled. At the same time, Wang lands twice as often and gets hit less, and she does have a solid 84% takedown defense, but she was also taken down three times in her last fight, like you just mentioned, to Eduardo Mora.

Tracy does average over two takedowns for 15 minutes. I could totally see a world where Tracy mixes it up. She has a solid chance of bringing home the W. But given how close the odds are here, I'm actually going to wait this one out because like you said, it's a pick-em. It's been a pick-um for a few days. I'm going to see if Tracy becomes a dog. I'll just take a single on her.

If she ends up moving to more of a favorite, I'll just throw her in a parlay. But either way, I like Tracy Cortez money line here. That is interesting. I think outside of the gimmick, I want to be really clear, I took the Wang Pinos parlay. because I'm a child. I'm an infant. And that's, I mean, what else are you going to? Like, I wasn't going to take the Cody Parlay

because I don't want to bet on either Cody, quite frankly. We talked about one. We'll talk about another. You know, they're always fun and interesting gimmicks. You could do a Patty Bimblet and a Luke Riley gimmick. I'm not doing that either. I'm an infant. I'm going to take the Wang and the penis parlay.

And that's fair. But outside of that, I really think I like Wang's chances to get this fight anyway. Um, she is not great. But I mean, famously, the story on her, like Almeda, right,

she has, she kickboxed Muay, his win over Valentina Shetanko. Unlike how they brought Pereira into the UFC and tried to really fire him up there. They have not done the same thing with Wang to get her moving up the thing. It's sort of been just like a normal fighter. But I do think she's improved time over time. Obviously,

a massive upset you can never feel super confident but Tracy Cortez I mean the story she needs the takedowns here right like that's that's kind of what she needs and one is I mean statistically is very good at it and has improved in my estimation watching her at sort of defending that just being a better all around mixed martial artist and so I like her to get it done anyway but even if I thought she was going to lose I'm a child parlayed her up with Damien Pinas that plays out at a From my book it's a plus 165 Parley and it's

It's a plus 8 million in my heart Because it's super fun I might tell that I mean I'm already gonna take penis I'm obviously just said I'm taking Tracy Cortez But you know maybe I'll just throw that in for the fun of it I mean how do you not have fun This is look I say all the time

Because I'm not a winning gambler As is evidenced by me being down five units this year gambling is supposed to be fun and if you can't have some fun with that then I don't know we're probably not going to be friends right like you probably think the jackass movies are low brow and not interesting

and I think they're high cinema and the funniest shit you'll ever see so let me just tell you if you show the jackass guys this fight card I bet it would take about 10 minutes to come to the same connection we did so that's where we're going and now we are going

to the middle prelim section as the quality of the fights continues to elevate a featherweight contest between the aforementioned Luke Riley taking on Kai Kamaka the third. Riley, a minus 325 betting favorite, Kamaka, plus 250 as an underdog Riley, 2 and O in the UFC training partner with Patty Pimbled. Coming off a unanimous decision win over Michael as well in March,

Kamaka, been on a long journey here. Was in the UFC, left the UFC, fought all over the world won his return to the UFC in April, a split decision went over Dakota Hope in which he got dropped in the fight. But, I mean, sort of the textbook definition of a veteran

journeyman for Kai Kamaka taking on a maybe not highly touted, but a prospect that people are at least some level of interested in in Luke Riley. Luke, are you taking your fellow Luke to get things done? I got to be honest, I didn't

even like, like, obviously I know the guy's name is Luke Riley, but I didn't even like put two together that we got the same name. Maybe it's just because I'm dead to it from working with Luke Thomas every day. But I do feel like, dude, Kai Kamaka, I'm inspired by his story. I like that he came back. He had that great video where he like tells his daughter he made it back to the UFC before that Dakota Hope fight. And I was like, I like this guy a lot. I'm rooting for him. But Riley lands more strikes for minute. Kamaka gets hit almost twice as often. He has a negative striking differential. But Jed, a lot like the cost of Durdin fight. The ex-facker to me here is that takedown defense of Luke Riley. Right now,

37 percent. That's terrible. And he was taken down five times in his two UFC fights. Meanwhile, Kamaka averages close to two takedowns per 50 minutes. And he didn't wrestle at all in that Dakota hope fight, but he did get five takedowns in his UFC debut. So like he can wrestle when he needs to. I'm going to hope, though, that Luke Riley either worked on that takedown defense or that Kamakama. just chooses to stand with him because I like Luke Riley's chances a lot if this day's standing. I'm going to take him money line in a parley. I'm sorry, you're going to take... Luke Riley.

You are taking the Luke in a parlay. That makes sense to me. I think he's going to get this done. I'm back to watch the tape. I think he's arguably a slightly too big a betting favorite. This is a big price right now. Kikemaga is a veteran. The thing, the issue I have with Riley is he seems good.

I'd like to see more out of him. He does the same stuff over and over again. He doesn't have that many ideas. And that stuff has been working. But like, who, in the Aswell fight, it was just like, he won the fight and it kept working. He got tagged a lot because he would also stand and look at his work after he threw the same combination over and over again.

And it's, you know, I jump in with hooks and combination. I will mix the body, but it's not a lot of a jab going on. I'd just like to see a more developed game for me to take him serious as a prospect. He's probably going to beat Kikamaka. I threw him in a big soupy parley. I had four sort of leftover things that I just pieced together. One of them is a travesty, quite frankly, that I'm doing it. But I needed to get the number to a positive.

and, uh, spoiler alert, I have Gable Steve's straight up in a parley because it took it from being like a minus 105 to a plus 102. I was like,

give me the plus number. I want the plus number. I'm doing it. Uh, Luke Riley is one of the legs of that parlay. We move on to another leg of that parlay for me. Spoiler alert. The Banim weight,

weight class is Cody Garberant takes on Adrian Yanjez. Uh, 425, the former Bannonweight champion Garbrandt plus 300. Garbrandt 3 and 2 over 5. A UD win over Zhao Long at 326 back in March. Yeah, and yes, meanwhile, 3 and 1 over his last 5. A majority draw with Ricky Simone at Seattle in March. I don't care if this is very stupid.

I think Cody Garbrand is washed. I think he, I thought he should have lost to Zhao Long, but for the multiple points. that were taken in that fight. There's going to be on the feet, so maybe Garbrandt can look like his old self again. But I just don't, it's, the game ain't in him, no more, in the words of Cuddy. It's not there. Yanez, maybe he gets trod, if so, I'll be sad.

But a dude can thump, and I think that's enough to get her done here. I have Adrian Yannies in this parlay with Luke Riley and Gable Steveson and one more leg to go. Luke, how about you? mean, that's fair. I was kind of shocked at these odds, dude. And to your point about the Zhao Long fight, he would have lost that fight if there weren't the two point deductions. Like scorecards, he was going to lose that fight. He really hasn't been the same since the TJ fight, Cody, that is. But when you look back at his losses, Jed, am I crazy? They all were ranked or are still ranked. Like, he's not losing to bad guys. He does, however, have a negative striking

differential. And he's going to be at a five-inch reach disadvantage in this fight. But Janies hasn't look great either recently. He gets hit twice as often and he only has one win over someone still on the UFC roster. He also has zero takedowns in 10 UFC fights and Cody has an 81% takedown defense. So if Cody's having success on the feet, it's going to stay there for all 15 minutes and it's going to be Cody's fight. At the same time, Cody has a deep wrestling background. I wouldn't be shocked if he tries to use it here. He does average close to one take down for 15 minutes. I kind of like Cody's chances here, but at the same time, looking back at his last few fights, the output has been pretty anemic. I don't know if he can just win straight up, but the plus

seven and a half spread jet is plus 110. You're damn right. I'm taking that because I think he can at least steal around here as long as he doesn't get knocked out. man um i think he's getting knocked out but i you know cody garbren has turned back the clock at points um so maybe he can do it again he just looked has looked so bad in his last few fights that uh yanez who has not looked good in a long time either still is just like honestly kind of makes sense as a matchup if cody can't win this he can't win any fight but i think it speaks volumes that he's this big and underdog in a fight like this what have A strange, strange career that man had, has still going on, but I think the best days are

clearly behind him. So what a strange run. To the heavyweights and the final piece, well, not the final piece, but the piece of this parlay that we haven't officially talked about, Gable Stephson, takes on a leash Ellison. He's going to beat him. He is a minus 2,000 betting, favorite bidding where you're at. Ellison plus 1,000.

Gable is only three in O in May career, but I don't know if you know. this Olympic gold medal wrestler. He's basically Brock Lesnar, only better, right? Like he won an Olympic gold medal on top of his national championships. He also tried to go play professional football and didn't quite make it, but almost made it, despite not playing football. He tried to be a professional wrestler. Brock has been a superior professional wrestler to him, so there's that.

Gables, the better real wrestler. Brock, the better pro wrestler. and now we see how Gabriel will shake out as a fighter. He looks like he's going to be pretty good. His last one, he did at least have to overcome some adversity, work through some things. But Ellison is Ellison. He got knocked out by Brando Pairchick in September.

He's going to lose. We don't have to talk about who's going to win. The only question is, how are you betting this one, Luke? Because I've got a few action down. I've got a few piece of action down here. I want to throw it back to you very quickly and just ask, is any part of this fight a climb bet because it feels like an easy climb

bet it sure is. Okay. So I'll ask you that in a second. But I just want to say real short and sweet, all of Gable's wins have come by K.O. Ellison, you just mentioned, caoed by Brando Perich's last time out. It's minus 300. I'll throw that shit in a parlay. But Jed, we have to talk about the real bet here,

okay? Because I don't make the rules. But heavyweight overs are a thing. And while neither are not... neither guys hit the over one and a half in 10 combined pro fights are you at all tempted at plus 360 for an over one and a half no not in the slightest um so i uh gable's gonna win he's gonna win early uh my action i already told you i put gable in that soupy parley to move it literally point five points to get it from a negative to a positive number um but I currently already have my climb is in, and it's not the climb I would have liked to do.

What I wanted to do was Gable plus round one, which at some books I was seeing was minus 300. I love that bet. That was not available at this point for my book. And I'm not, like I just, I had to get it in. And so what I took for my climb is Gable plus the under one and a half. That's minus 600 for those two. So it's not nearly as good.

getting plus one. Do get a little bit of extra value in case somehow Ellison makes out of the first round. I would choose. If I had had the option, I would have picked Gable wins in the first round. He's just going to mall this dude. It's, it is what it is. It's a setup of set-up fights. And so that is my climb. I am also strongly considering taking that same bet or maybe waiting, might end up waiting and seeing if I can get Gable in round one, parlaying it, Max Holloway, spoiler alert, and just putting in a huge chunk of money on these two things that I think are certified locks to happen. But that hasn't happened yet. But my client bet is there and then Gables in this parlay as well.

So, you know, what else is I just say Gable's going to win? We move on. We move on to the light heavyweight division. The final prelim bout of the evening, Robert Whitaker making his 205-pound debut, the former well-old. to wait moving on up once again the key to krillov is the opponent an established name of 205 pounds a ranked man Whitaker very slight betting favorite minus 165

the comeback on krillov plus 130 Whitaker lost his last two fights that sort of precipitated this move up the most recent was that split decision loss to already are in July so about a year ago krillov meanwhile three and two over his past five knocked out modestis pokkowsky

at 324 back in January, though. Luke, how are you feeling about Robert Whitaker's move up to the 205-pound weight class? Not great, Jed. Not great. I got to be honest. A lot like the two men headlining this card, though, you did just say, Whitaker moving up, started at 170, went up to 85, now he's going to 205. The difference here is with Max and Connor, they both started at 45 when they're going to 70. Nikita Krillov started as a heavyweight and is now, and established.

light heavyweight, but either way, this is a man who essentially moved down versus heavyweight versus a man moving up. And it's like, all right, I do not love that. But, and wait, I got to be honest, too, Jed. Did you think Whitaker was like a big middleweight? I never thought Whitaker was a big middleweight. He's not, so in my notes of this fight, I have two things to that point. One, I do not believe moving up solves any of the problems Robert Whitaker had. And two, he's going to be tiny. This is the smallest person. that Nikita Krillov has fought since Ed Herman is like the closest comp. Another former middleweight, right?

Like back in 2016, Nikita Krilov is like, in general, a big dude, but not like the biggest light heavyweight. He is going to dwarf Robert Whitaker in there. It is, it's going to look like a cartoon.

I know, dude. I'm really worried about it. And I'm admittedly, totally biased because I'm a huge Robert Whitaker fan. Krillov at the same time, you know, trying to talk myself into this. He can be heremiss, dude. He'll be good one win.

He kind of looks like crap the next time out. I don't have a lot of faith in this, but A, love Robert Whitaker. And B, Jed, you know I love a good gimmick. Krilov, Owen 3 against UFC champions. We're taking Bobby Knuckles money line, baby. Let's go. I mean, it's going to be sweaty, I think, but it's not necessarily a bad bet. I couldn't bring myself to bet on Whitaker.

I do think he's going to win. but I have a lot of questions about it because again like Whitaker's problems aren't that he was too, you know, he was too big, he was cutting too much weight. He got old. His problem's where he got old. The game has caught up to him,

passed him by in many respects. Younger dudes are doing it. The same way Izzy isn't losing because he's cutting too much weight. He's just old. They are old men who have been doing this for a very long time. And especially with, more so with Izzy, but to an extent

this way with Whitaker's game as well a lot of it is built on speed and timing right like he's got that karate in out style and as you get a little slower your durability goes down this just becomes a problem right like why did he lose to RDR

because RR's huge he's a huge middle weight like straight up why he lost that fight because Rinder Ritter is an enormous dude and now he's going to fight exclusively enormous dudes I do not think this is a well thought out move I don't think long term, it's very successful.

He could be Krilov. I don't, but I don't have any level of confidence. What I decided to do, because Krilov, like you said, can be hit or miss, right? I think the size advantage scares me away from betting Bobby now, Kahlav's own sort of shortcoming, scare me away from taking an underdog bet. I think this fight is going to go long, though, right?

Like, Whitaker is not a huge finisher in general. Kulov can be, but Whitaker has been mostly durable. And the guys who have beaten Bobby Knuckles are just, like, much better fighters than Nikita Krilov is. So I think that we are going to be in for a long fight. Give me the over one and a half at minus 210. That's where I settled down for this one, Luke. I like that, but I'll honestly probably take that as well.

I got Whitaker in one parlay, but I usually do two parlayes on each fight, like every two fights. So I'll probably end up taking that. And now we move to the main card finally as the lightweight division opens preceding. for the final five fights. King Green, formerly known as Bobby Green, takes on Terrence McKinney and will probably going to be a banger. Somewhat surprising to me, quite frankly, Luke, King Green, you're under our plus 140.

The comeback on Terrence McKinney minus 170. Greens on a three-fight win streak, rear-naked choke win over Jeremy Stevens at 328 in May. McKinney, three and two of his last five, finished Kyle Nelson in like 20 seconds or whatever at Seattle in March. here's the thing I want to note though because at this point everybody knows the story loop Terence McKinney all of his fights into the first round

he never basically is never out of the first round you bet the unders when Terence McGinney's fighting and to this point King Green his last three losses were all in round one I'm obviously going to be taking the under one and a half it is the final piece to the parley the soupy parlay that's plus 102

it was very much in consideration to be a climb piece, but we already had three legs. After discussing with my climb consultant, Alexander Cayley, we decided three was enough, didn't need to go to four, not climb with that. Here's what I'm interested in, though. Terrence McKinney is a favorite, and I'm a little surprised by that,

but Vegas knows him. Vegas knows when to book Terrence McKinney. He is 6'0 as a betting favorite. Every time they install him as one, they know what they're doing and gets it done. It kind of makes me think Terrence McKinney is going to sort of barnstorm the aging King Green. But if Bobby can find a way to hang in there.

Do you have the Bobby underdog numbers? What? Do you have the Bobby underdog numbers? 7-11 and 1. So nothing inspiring there. Not overall positive, right? Like if you bet on him every time as an underdog, Your ROI is still positive.

You've not lost money. But we'll talk about a couple guys. I mean, for reference, Nikita Krilov is 4 and 2 as a dog. You know, like that one's much, much better than Bobby is. All right. Well, that doesn't make me feel good. But, Jed, I know you know this. Terrence McKinney is the most exciting fighter in the UFC.

He is kill or be killed every time he's out there. He's got a 2-1 striking differential. He mixes up the takedowns. He throws caution to the wind at every opportunity. But I can't help look at King Green's numbers and be like he has a chance here. He has identical striking numbers. And unlike Terrence McKinney, he actually has striking defense, 62% compared to 43%. In his last six fights, Green has only lost the top 10 guys.

Five of McKinney's last six wins have come to guys no longer on the UFC roster. I like you was pretty shocked to see King Green as an underdog here. In fact, I was actually thinking the opposite the whole time. I was like, I'll take Terrence McKinney as a dog against King Green. But to see them flip-flopped, I had to go the other way. I took King Green Money Line, got him at plus 130. I don't hate it outside of the genuinely being scared that Vegas has never been wrong about McKinney as a favorite. First time for everything, I suppose.

It's hard because I thought King was dropping off and then he's put together this win streak. You know, little smoke of mirrors. What's a win over Jeremy Stevens, really? you know, it's, but I don't know. Terrence McKinney might just come out and kill him, though. We'll find out I am genuinely fascinated by this, or like I am genuinely just super, super interested to see how this shakes out because, like, I got no idea.

It's Terrence McKinney fight. You know what it looks like? You just don't know which way it looks like it's going to go. And that's where I find myself on this one. So looking forward to this also to note, you could have a not named Bobby but Bobby Parley

you do Bobby King Green and Robert Bobby Knuckles Whitaker together the non-Bobbs parley that's an option not one I took but if you wanted to throw it out there

if you're looking for gimmick silly parley's there's one for you as well buddy we move to the back to the flyway division in fact for a fight that again I'm super super pumped on Brinawerve all takes on Lonnie Kavanaugh I have to pull up the odds because I wrote these odds down incorrectly. Ronnie Kavanaugh, you're betting favorite at minus 240.

The comeback on Royval around plus 200, plus 190, depending on some of these books I'm seeing. Royval, two-fight losing streak, knocked out by Minnell Cop in December. Kavanaugh, four and won over his last five, suffered that, like the championship loss to Charles Johnson, the loss that sets you up for success, losing Charles Johnson. And then steps in on kind of short-day-notice, a quick booking as he steps in. Do you fight Brandon Moreno at U.S.C. Mexico in February and does the damn thing.

Luke, let me just tell you, I loved Lonnie Kavanaugh coming off Contenders series a couple years ago. One of my highest might have actually been my top-rated prospect that season. And him shining against Brandon Moreno made my heart sing. can he go back to back against the brandons though what say you first things first i want to say that i am calling this fight to be fight of the night and i know we just talked about terence mckinney king green and i know but terence mckinney also doesn't get bonuses from the ufc for whichever reason and i also think that'll be more of a performance of the night rather than a fight of the night this is going to be the best fight of the night okay could be total dud but i'm calling it to be the best fight of the night

jed you just mentioned cavanaugh beat moreno over five rounds it's definitely impressive but like I don't really know where Brandon Moreno is currently, so I don't know how high to hold that win. And while losing to Josh Van and Manel Cop aren't bad losses, Brandon Royval did get dropped in both of those fights, so I'm a little worried where he's at, too, with his chin and everything. I do think it'd be smart for Lonnie to mix it up here and take this fight to the ground if he can. Royval's got a crazy output and the cardio to match it. He's outstruck his opponent in seven of his last eight fights,

with the only outlier being Manel Cop, and they actually had to be. the exact same total of strikes. So pretty much outstruck everyone in his last eight fights. If this stays standing for 15 minutes, I could totally see Roy Vol just overworking him to a decision victory. Regardless, though, I'm hoping this fight goes long. I'm taking

the over two and a half. I don't have the odds. Oh, I think it's minus 180 or something. I parlayed it with the next fight. I have this written backwards, but I parlayed it with the next fight. I'll get to it as we go. I mean, you all should understand by now. I'm a Lonnie Kavanaugh guy. I co-opted him.

His early performances did not inspire. And then I was like, oh, maybe I just missed on him after the Charles Johnson loss. And, you know, it's the dumb and dumber scene. He totally redeemed himself with the Brandon Marino performance all the way back in. He gets another Brandon who's probably past his prime. This one a little more hitable than Brandon Marino is even. I think maybe these odds are a little too long. long straight up maybe.

But because Brano Orval is very good at sort of establishing chaos. He's a better control grappler than Brandon Marino is. So that could get wonky, but not dog, Lonnie Kavanaugh for days. But I do think it's going to go long. I'm taking Kavanaugh by decision because I can get that at plus 150. And I think it's just better value than Kavanaugh straight up. If it loses because he gets a knockout, I think he gets a decision. like way more often anyway. So I'll take that. Do want to note on the trend section,

we've all 50-50 as a dog, 5 and 5 as an underdog. Kavanaugh only been a favorite three times, two and one. The obvious one, the loss being the Charles Johnson one. So we'll have all a bit of a live dog, but a couple other guys a little more productive than that, as we will continue up the card. On July 16th, the hawk lands on Netflix. From the mind of Will Farrell. Oh, mama, I'm back. Come in a new original series. Get ready, get ready.

That's it. Did I stutter? When an iconic pro golfer. Lonnie? Monty. Hock, guys! Takes one last swing at greatness. You were a big shot golfer.

I still am a big shot golfer. No one. Dad, I'm the Hawk now. We'll stand in his way. That's how it's done. The Hawk, only on Netflix, July 16th. To the Bantamweight Division, Corey Sandigan taking on Mario Batista, this is my. I pick for Fight of the Night long round.

I think, I mean, maybe the co-main event might get it because two super exciting dudes, but I love this matchup. Corey Sandhagan-Batista, two guys who are absolutely, you know, top eight guys in the weight class, probably never going to win a belt. Both are should, you know, Corey did fight for a title, even if it was kind of weird how we got there. Batista feels like he's in a similar zone, right? of like, they feel like the same guy to me of gatekeeper to the stars, but we will see Sandhagen, slight betting favor minus 155, Batista plus 125, San Diego, three and two of his last

five, the title loss to Marab at 320 in October, his most recent outing. Matista, meanwhile, four and one over his last five, submitted Loak Dogg, AEOC, Vegas 113 in February. And Luke, I know you know this, but for the listeners at home, This is a rematch. The other rematch on this card. We're talking about the main event rematch. This is also a rematch. Corey Sandhagen submitted Batista with an arm bar in 2019 in Batista's UFC debut.

Mario wants to get that one back. Now he's got the opportunity. Does he get it done, Luke? I don't know, man. I do want to also note he did take that fight on short notice, but, you know, I still, like, I don't know what we can take away from it. Jed, it's funny that you mentioned that both these guys are, like, kind of in the same spot or you consider them the same fighter because they had such different

paths to get here like corey literally after they fought was in a number one contender fight against aljo a year later and has been a mainstay in the top five like ever since then and then you had bautista who had to like slowly climb his way up the rankings to finally get to this spot so there is part of me that kind of roots for the mario bautista here a guy who's really earned his stripes getting there is we look at the numbers not much to take away from it that They kind of have very similar striking and wrestling numbers. But you know, we love doing some MMA math, Jed. They did both lose to Umar and Ramagamadov.

Mario was taken down 11 times in a three-round fight. Corey only taken down five times in a five-round fight. Also worth noting, Corey more than doubled Mario's output through three rounds. He landed 45 significant strikes to Mario's 20. Obviously, none of that has anything to do with this fight, but I did find it pretty interesting. Momentum-wise, it is easier to land significant. strikes when you're not being taken down exactly yeah i mean i you know whatever jett it sounds like a good stat all right those two things might be linked to valetum appears to be in baltista's favor at the moment but in

his 16 ufc fights who cori's only lost the champions in umar and romagamatov he's only losing to like the best of the best i got a ride with my man cori sandhagan here money line got him at minus 140 well actually i parlayed it since this is backwards now parlayed it with the over two and a half in lani and uh Roy Vall and it's plus 167 so I like it um I I don't know man like this I this is the most stupid way to possibly view a fight but it's how I viewed it I think this is a coin flip and Mario Batista's plus 125 so I took Mario Batista I looked at just doing like a spread bethita with Batista, but I didn't love the odds. Didn't feel like I was getting a great value there.

I think Sandhagan is the quote unquote better fighter at this stage of the proceedings, but not by that much. I think Batista's pace and pressure are going to be problems. The way Batista has struggled, people have taken him down. Of course, he's gotten pretty good at that, but I still don't think that

that's like going to be a repeatable path, of success for him, right? You know, Batista did have some success. I gave up a lot of takedowns to Umar. It's Umar. we're talking about. And he scrambled pretty well.

I don't know. I think this is mostly going to be on the feet. Corey controls range very well. The kicking game will be a problem for Batista. But I do think just pressure and a higher output can make this pretty tight. And look, you know, people who are longtime listeners of our programs, they understand. Not the world's biggest Batista fan. But he's a really good fighter, man.

And I think Corey, now that Corey finally reached the top, right? he got his title fight he's never going to win a belt people thought he could they were silly people and i love and respect many of you who were listening and i know who you are but like corey's just not that guy you know he is he's he's he's a good guy he's not a he's not a championship guy and now that he finally did get his day i wonder if maybe we start to see a drop off you know if maybe he declines a little bit because he achieved what he was he achieved the ceiling of what he's capable of doing in this sport and so uh i think between Batista can get to that same ceiling.

Again, I don't think he's going to win the belt, but coin flip fight, give me the underdog. Taking Mario Batista at plus 125 straight. And this is our first climb leg. The over one and a half in this is minus 500. That's right on the climb line we are looking for. Santagin has hit that number in eight straight fights. Batista in his last six fights has hit that. So over one and a half, feeling pretty good about this.

I think it's just going to go to the cards in general. but yeah, that's where I'm at on this loop. I agree. The other bet besides Sandhagan Money Line that I was considering was the over two and a half, so I definitely think this hits the one and a half. But then I got scared when I looked back at the first fight, saw Corey one in round one, and I was like, I kind of just feel better taking Corey straight up.

But to your point, I think it goes the distance either way. And we move to the co-main event of the evening. The arena, the T-Mobile, it will be rocking at this point in time because Binwa Sondini is taking on Patty Pimbley in a lightweight bout of major consequence. BSD minus 150 betting favorite. Patty Pimbleau plus 120 underdog. BSD, I didn't even realize there was a four-fight win streak he's on until I'd look this up because the two losses feel so present, even though he's put them behind him.

Four in a row, TK. Dan Hooker in February, UFC 325. Pimbleet, meanwhile, you know, was on, I believe, a seven-fight winststress. streak in the UFC before losing his last one. A unanimous decision loss to Justin Gitchie for the interim lightweight belt at UFC 324. A loss that has aged quite well for Patty Pimble at this point in time. Luke,

the co-meant event, how do you see it going down? It's so funny that you're talking about like BSD doesn't even feel like a four-fight win streak because I feel the same way. I still feel like he's coming off that Moikano loss. And I'm like, what the hell, man? He's such a hard guy to pinpoint. He loses to Moikano, and even when he beat Kyle Prepeleck, which was the first win of this four-fight

win streak, I'm like, yeah, yeah, B is the A-N-It, I don't know what we saw in this guy. He doesn't look that great. Then he beats Rufie, which has aged extremely well, but we all saw how lost Rufie looked on the ground in that fight, beats Bineal, who's been ca-oed in four of his last five, and then Hooker, who's been finished in two straight. I don't know what to take away from these wins. He's beating who they put in front of him, but I'm still not completely sold. I'm in the same exact boat with Patty, though. His best win is probably King Green. We all know he lost to Jared Gordon. At the same time, his only UFC losses the champ in a fight that he won around for whatever that's worth. The striking numbers pretty similar, but the wrestling numbers here

are where it gets interesting. BSD averages over four takedowns per 50 minutes. Patty been taken down by six of his eight UFC opponents, including three plus times by four of them, and he has a pretty bad 44% take down defense. At the same time though, Jed, I feel like Patty's best bet is to get this fight to the mat and if BSD is going to be the one to take it there, I do find that very interesting. Either way, I do not

have a good read on this fight whatsoever so I'm going to hate myself for this, but I am going to take the always super sweaty over one and a half in a BSD fight. He has shockingly hit it in five of his last six for the record despite all five of those ending

in round two. Patty also hit it in five of his last six. I have it in a parlay with the main event. I'll get to it when we get there. I mean, I feel pretty good about this one. I can be wrong. I've been wrong a lot this year, so if I am not, but I think Patty Pimbled is a guy that we have all collectively underrated.

He hasn't beaten a lot of good people, but he's shown constant improvement time in. Every fight, he looks better than his last fight. And it's not necessarily fair to do this. But I think there's some truth to what Patty has said in the post-UFC White House of like, I did way better against Justin Gage than you did, I think that's real, right? Like he didn't because he was never close to winning the fight in a way Tuporia was, but he also didn't get broken in four rounds.

And partly he's real tough. Like that Patty is super tough. But he had a better approach to that fight than Ilya did. He had any more tactical analysis of what just, than Gae does and how to exploit it. And that's why he had his own levels of success at various points in time. They rematch, I'd still pick Gachie.

But I think Pimblek could sort of evolve and do a little bit better against that. And so I want to give him his flowers. All of that is my preamble to say, he ain't beaten him in was on to me. Like, BSD has had his setbacks too, had his foibles. And you can hand wave them and say,

yeah, those two losses came when he, like, admittedly wasn't training. It was just like hit by himself at a gym. He didn't have a coach and was be like, okay, that's dumb. You should know not to do that or whatever. And he lost. Since then he's looked like the dude he looked like before the Porier fight, right? Like he just looked like an absolute world beater.

He has some problems. His game is still a little bit weirdly composed where he doesn't have the best transitional stuff going on. But there's a lot of similarities in these. two dudes fight styles. Only one of them is a really good athlete and the other is Patty Pimlet. Like BSD is a very, very physical, very athletic.

Pimlet's just big. He's not actually that athletic. I think BSD hits harder. I think Pimlet's more durable, sure. But BSD hits harder. And the biggest difference to me is if this gets, this will go to a grappling thing. BSD is the superior wrestler and I don't think Pimlet's grappling game

is going to be tricky enough to offset BSD from doing what he wants. And so in a five-round fight, maybe Pimbleau, I might feel a little bit better about his chances. Three rounds, give me BSD all day. So taking Binwasandini straight up in this one at minus 1.15.

That's fair. And that's it. We moved to the main event. Connor, the Mac is back, baby. Five years away from the Octagon, he takes on Max Holloway in a rematch of their 2013. I don't remember a fight.

Yes, 2013. 2013. 10 years ago they fought, or I'm sorry, my math is bad. 13 years ago they fought. McGregor, big underdog, plus 170. Holloway, big favorite, minus two, not big, but sizable favorite, minus 210. McGregor, two and three over his last five, but that's really meaningless because he hasn't fought in five years. The last time we did see him, it's going to be guys, legs shattered against Dustin.

Emporia at UFC 264 in 2021. Max, meanwhile, super busy in the ensuing five years, but it's coming off for unanimous decision lost to Charles Olivera at 326 back in March. Luke, I've made no bones about it. I'm silent Max Holloway. I've got some more stuff going on as well, but Max Hollowell will be my selection. Do you think he gets a done against Connor? Yeah, I got a side with you.

I mean, besides McGregor's layoff and how. he's going to look after the injury. I'm a little worried about the weight. I don't know about you, Jed. Both guys obviously fought at 45, later moved up to 55. The key difference, though, is McGregor moved up 10 years ago, and he's actually fought at 170 multiple times before. Max just fought at 45 against Ilya two years ago and has never fought higher than 155. Jumping all the way to 170 might be a step too far, and I could totally see a world where McGregor's just fucking massive in there compared to him. And while their first fight was 13 years ago, I do think there's one thing I can take away from it. McGregor really utilized his wrestling in that bout. And I know he got hurt halfway through,

and that's probably why he went that route. But I can't help but think after Max's last performance, he was nearly controlled for 21 minutes, that McGregor's probably thinking he's going to have success with the wrestling here. Jed, it hasn't dropped yet on my book. But when the McGregor one takedown drops, if that is plus money, I am definitely taking that just for the sake of taking it. But as you alluded to, I can't ignore the layoff. I can't ignore the injury. I can't ignore the extracurricular activities. Max has been fighting the best of the best. Eight fights since Conner's last fight, six of those against champions or interim champions. He lands more. He gets hit less. I can't trust Connor's been taking anything seriously,

whether it's training, recovery, et cetera. And to be the best, you got to beat the best, Jed. And the best is blessed. Let's go. Max Holloway Money Line parlaying him with the over one and a half in BSD Patty plus 140. I'm going to put the death touch on this. Because anytime I say this phrase, I immediately lose. Every time, it's a gimmick. Instantaneously, you should fade it. I do not understand how Connor McGregor is only this big of an underdog.

He has not fought in five years. I recognize we were competing at welterweight. Max has never fought at Walterweight. Connor at least has some experience there. Connor hasn't fought in five years. He's fought and fought. He isn't won in six years. Even when we last saw him fighting, he wasn't Connor anymore. It wasn't good anymore, right? Like, we will never know the truth of whether Connor McGregor was a one-trick pony who got figured out.

Or if he was a once-in-a-generation prospect who got so famous that he just sort of gave up and didn't fulfill all he could have done. either could be true. I have my opinions, you can have yours. But nobody can argue that he has looked. Yes, Eddie Alvarez was a transformative, like, performance in this sport. Like, I knew that one was coming. I was like, yeah, that's a great style matchup for Connor. But he still put the performance down.

What has he done since then that has been a value of merit for people to think? He killed Cowboy Soroni. At the kind of the end of Cowboy Soroni's prime anyway, and again, a matchup that super favors him. What are we holding on to? One good round against Dustin before getting knocked out? Okay. He's always been able to have one good round.

Because he is the best version of Terrence McKinney. Right? Like he can fight for one round and it can be great because he puts all of his points into the one round. And if you make it out, he's cooked. Max Holloway is not the guy for that style matchup. Like Max's chin has been. been cracked now at least so like you could sell yourself the story that max holloway might get hit

and conner gets him but that is not even like go back and watch the teporea fight he didn't put him down the first punch it was a it was four rounds of slowly just wearing him down before he finally broke you know you mentioned the takedowns maybe connor shoots a takedown he's not charles oliveri he can't do that forever if he did he'd guess connor's whole thing is a whole lea's whole leon has been gassing. Like that is who he is as a fighter. You do not change your spots. This is,

I said for years, if they ever rematch, this was a nightmare style matchup for Connor. He got Max at the perfect time. Max was 20 years old. Didn't even know how to fight, really. And Connor was an ascending talent.

This ain't that. We ain't there no more. Like, Max is still durable enough. He's not impervious, as he used to be, but he's, he is more than durable. enough to beat Connor McGregor at this stage of things.

And stylistically, maybe Connor wins the first round. I'm not even certain about that. And then the second round, Max is still there putting volume on him, sticking him with the jab, one, two, three, four, five punch combos, working the body. Connor McGregor already has a bad gas tank. Max starts working the body, hits a spin kick to the ribs. Connor is going to fold, man.

Like, I don't understand it. And if I'm wrong, I'll look like an asshole. and everybody please come get me. Like I'll deserve it. You will deserve to dunk on me. I don't see it. Just nothing. The only thing that people,

that I can understand is that people are Connor fans and they want to believe in the way that people wanted to believe that Mike Tyson, Mike, Mike could just get back there. I was like, he ain't that dude. It's just not it. And this is not the guy to be that dude against.

Max Holloway is going to win this. He's going to win this big. Max Holloway, Despite being a minus, for the climb, I got him a minus 225 as well under the climb limit. He's a climb bet. I am also throwing an additional couple of units on him just straight up. And then I've just had a little fun. I'm not 100% sure if this will hit because I think it could, the under could very much smash here.

The over significant strike number from Max Holloway is 69.5 minus 115. taking that because again I think Max is just I don't think he's going to get into the hundreds because I think Connor will fold before then but I think he's going to pile it on before McGregor collapses in there so a lot of action on this bet

and this fight and if I'm wrong please let me know hit me up but I'm not Max's going to run him I agree with you Jed I think this line is heavily swayed by just I don't even know casual fans the public whatever but like

when I lined it in my head, I'm like, yeah. It's casual fans. Be like, oh, he already beat this dude. Yeah. Perfect. That's why you set this. That's why this is the matchup for Connor coming back because they want to get him a win. I'm like, my brother in Christ, this is, he ain't getting a win here.

What would tempt you to take Connor? I feel like it's got to be like plus 400 or higher. There, I, again, I understand that I'm wrong because every time I say this, I lose. the number would have to be 400's not even close to getting me I think he is close to 0% in this fight I genuinely think he's very close to 0% in this fight

I'm thinking of what I would take Matt I'd take max up to like minus 750 but I still feel like I would be intrigued by Connor at plus 500 plus 4% you know that does see that doesn't move I wouldn't take max like minus 1,000 because I just don't bet things like that. It's just like, well, at that point, you're just not getting anything for it. But I, maybe at plus 2,000, I'd be some level of interest in Connor. I just truly don't think he can win this fight.

I don't, I need somebody to explain how, like, okay, he's going to wrestle him. He's going to wrestle him for 25 minutes. Are you watched the Connor McGregor fight? Have you seen his gas tank? He's not going to do that. Well, he's bigger at Welterweight. He's going to hit Max. Max is going to die.

I've never seen Max. do that. So if it happens, okay, you're banking on something that's all basically never happened before. Because again, it took Tupuria several rounds to get that. And if we're in round two, Conner's gasped and done. So like, I just don't see it. I do not see it. Who are you more intrigued by Elijah Ellison at plus 1,300 or Connor McGregor at plus 170? Conner McGregor at least at one point in time was a very good fighter. So I'll take that. All right. Fair, fair. I had to see how far it went, you know.

I just, the moment they booked this fight, I thought Max would be like a minus 500 favorite at least. And it's just like, nope, two to one. Why? You guys that delusional about Connor? Great. I'll pay for some things. Yeah, exactly.

I'll take those odds on Max. I'm not complaining. I look, just straight up, I'm going to put enough money on this to finance my golf trip this week. If I lose, I'll be really sad about it. But I won't even be that sad. Because I would have done that with the expectation of doing 4x the number I'm going to have to lay to do it. That's a good point. I thought I'd be betting him at that way.

Like in that state at minus 500, I'm getting him a minus 210. I get his, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I just, I don't see it. But I get, that's why they fight him. I didn't see Gachie beating to Puri either. Sure. There we are. So that is it, ladies and gentlemen, UFC 329 in the books.

and I'll be going down in just a couple of days. So the Mac is back. We're going to have some fun. And then we are on to the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City for my guy. Trickus 2 Plusy taking on Kamar Ushman at UFC, Oklahoma City. So make sure you keep it locked in McFind.com all week. Luke, tell the people where they can find you in your work this week. Well, I'll have a full card watch along for this card Saturday.

I'll be going 15 minutes before. starts so 445 Eastern over on main card minute also going to have the prop quiz uh tourney finale this Friday and that has m mack fighting zone mike heck versus aaronstetter in the final so go check that out winner wins $100 and uh you know mk folks to bros usual shows jed usual shows i i hope that mike heck defeats him because a b shouldn't even be there i i had the opportunity to put ab down but i'm not a coward uh he was and so he doesn't deserve it. If I bet no money, I'd be moving on because I put the tips into them in that round.

But I did the Max Holloway. I pointed and it didn't work out for me next time. Next time, maybe. Look, thank you for joining me as always. Thank you all for listening. Enjoy UFC 329 and we'll see you next week for UFC, Oklahoma. Love y'all.