MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Which Flyweight Prospects Will Announce Themselves At UFC Vegas 93?

Episode Date: June 12, 2024

UFC Louisville is in the books so it's back to the APEX for UFC Vegas 93! Headlined by a flyweight matchup between Alex Perez and Tatsuro Taira, UFC Vegas 93 features 13 fights, including FOUR men's flyweight matchups, and No Bets Barred is back to break them all down. Conner Burks is out this week so Jed Meshew takes the reigns and is joined by MMA Fighting's Mike Heck to breakdown all the action for this magnificent APEX card. Will Tatsuro Taira have his big breakthrough moment on Saturday? What other flyweight prospects can stand out? Just how badly will Ikram Aliskerov beat Antonio Trocoli? Plus, even a little PFL 4 discussion. All this and a lot more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 91 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Mike Heck: @MikeHeck_JR Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Defenders and cybersecurity are always there when we need them. They should get a parade every time they block a novel threat and have streets. sandwiches and babies named in their honor. But most of all, they deserve AI cybersecurity that can stop novel threats before they become breaches across email, clouds, networks, and more.

DarkTrace is the cybersecurity defenders deserve and the one they need to defend beyond. Visit darktrace.com forward slash defenders for more information. ...up, y'all. We are back with another edition of No Bet's Bard. and you might be thinking to yourself, self, that doesn't sound like Connor Birx, because it's not. We told you last week, CB is out this week,

so had to go, you know, into the rotation, pull up a man who's been on this program before, because when we're talking about UFC Vegas 93, I mean, this event screams Mike Heck to me. And so Mike Heck, thanks for joining the program. How the heck are you? I'm doing great.

I think this is the first time on the program since UFC 292. The Boston card. So it's good to be back for a card that's even bigger than that. You know, I was just thinking the other week, because you keep inviting me on to do your program onto the next one for the biggest cards afterwards, you know, the UFC Louisville breakdown, those sorts of cards. And I thought, I got to get you back with something similar,

a mega event this Saturday in UFC Vegas 93. We also have PFL action this week. We also have a little bit of boxing. So there's a lot going on. But before we do that, I do have an update for everyone because it's important that I get this out there. If you watch the MMA hour, you know, Connor actually had a successful week, still down for the year. But clawing his way back, we've been going through this journey together. And if you want Connor's bets, check out the MMA hour.

I mean, this drops on Wednesday, so you'll be able to watch the MMA hour the same day you hear this. So check out his bets for those. it's going to be a tight little run for him, same as it kind of is for me. But more importantly, I'm fully in the black now, Mike, because heading into U.S.C. Louisville, I was up just over half a unit,

ended up making a little over a unit. So now we've even got some wiggle room where we're killing it. I can eat food this week, and I'm excited about it. And the fallout of U.S. Louisville, how did you view that card, Mike? it was a tale of two cards, really, you know?

Yeah, it was pretty bad. I had one bet on that card, and it was awful. In hindsight, it was a terrible bet. Cody Stamen at Plus Money just got kind of run out of the building by Taylor Elapolis. So I ended up doing that, but so far, I mean, I got to tell you, my betting year has been incredible. I have like Hall of Fame numbers going on right now.

302 was not great, but I did just enough to win 75. cents. Hey. That card since Islam. A win is a win. Islam got a finish of Dustin Porre in that fight. So that put me as a 75 cent victory. But yeah, Louisville is tough. Main card was fun. But again, like, even with the controversy, come Tuesday, we were done talking about it. Even with the stoppage in the main in the main event, we were done talking about it by Tuesday. It's over and done with. We're already on to Vegas 93. And there's so much going on with 303 right now. As we record, we still don't know about. So, yeah, we're so past Louisville.

It's not even funny. The roller coaster of 303 continues. And if you thought we moved past Louisville quickly, let me tell you, we're going to move past UFC Vegas 93 by Friday. We're going to be done talking about this card before it even happens. But I would be remiss if I didn't mention. This is a bit of a poor one out. As I was looking ahead at this week, I didn't realize this.

didn't talk to Connor about this, but we got four flyweight fights on this card. And so for Connor, Berks himself not to be here, the architect, the author of the once great flyweight nation that has now fallen fully into disrepair. I think, honestly, maybe that's why he's not here this week, guys. He didn't tell me this off the record. He wouldn't say, hey, I can't emotionally take watching and betting on these four flyweight fights. plus a women's flyweight file. I can't do it.

But I think that that may be it. Because Mike, we're going to hop into it because we start at the top of flyweight main event, five rounds between two, I'm looking at the UFC rankings, another top 15. I'm not sure Tyra is in the top 15.

But two top, or top 10, two top 15 fly weights, Alex Perez, taking on Tatsuro, Tyra. Perez is your underdog at plus 160, the comeback on Tyra. at minus 185 depending on your book and so mike let's just hop right into it uh what do you have on the main event what are your thoughts do you have any action because i hear i hear you got a lot of

bets this week i do i actually have more than i told you off offline uh wow you mentioned because you mentioned flyway and under nation and i wanted i didn't go full bore flyway and under nation but i certainly did on this fight uh give me plus money and under two and a half is what i got it at at plus 114. So that's something that I think is going to happen. I think all Tetsu Retire needs to do is get this fight to the ground one time. And it's going to be a wrap shortly after that. And I also have a bet on Tetsu Retire at minus 180. I think there's two fights involving really good prospects that could be fighting for belts in the very near future. I just happen to think one is more seasoned and way ahead of the other. So for that reason, I'm picking Tetsu Retire. I got him at minus

180 and then I'm taking the under two and a half a plus 114 as well. Ooh, the double stack. So I'm with you on the Tyra bet. I've made no bones about it. I think Tyra is very likely to be a future champion. I've said a number of times. I think he is the best bet for a Japanese UFC champion since, you know, early days of Kiyoji.

And I think we can all agree. Kiyoji would have become a UFC champion if he had stayed in the UFC, because look what he has done. outside of the UFC. But I think Tetsu Tira is probably the guy. You know, I know, it's not more. Like there are some people out there who maybe could be there. But for my money, Tira is the guy.

He's in the weight class where I think he could have the most success to get there. And the question for me at Flyweight the last couple of years has become, is it Tatsura or is it Mohamed, which is who's the guy? Who is going to be the guy? I think one day we're going to get a title fight between those two. I'm excited for that eventual day. But I have honestly been more impressed with Tyra lately. Now, the level of competition is different.

Makayev kind of got shot into that upper echelon a little faster and has thrived there, certainly against Alex Perez. The Perez fight, I think, is instructive to how I view this fight. I think Tyra is going to have the same success against Perez that Makayev did. My question, it sounds like you think he's going to be able to be able to be. able to get the finish. I don't know because Perez has been weak to certainly submission grappling, but he managed to kind of hold his own against Makayev there.

And so I don't know, Tyra has been a better finisher over the course of his career than Mikhail has. But so I was scared off on doing any sort of props or anything like that, particularly because this is a pretty big step up for Tyra, like compared to who he's been facing. So I just took the straight action. I got him at minus 170. And I think that this is his coming out party. Yeah.

I think Tyers got really good striking, too. He can freaking crack, man. He is a much better striker than McIov is. Yes. And I think the only guy he didn't, he hasn't finished. And I haven't gone back and looked is Carlos Kendalario, which nobody finishes that guy, been following his entire pro career. And that dude is like just a box of lead, man.

You cannot get rid of that, man. You just can't. So entire. you know, rung up like a 3026 or a 3025 on him. So yeah, Perez is good, man.

This is a good win against Nicolao, but I think Tyre's just got a really good, complete game. And I think he can crack Perez. I think he could actually drop him and hurt him on the feet. And if that happens, I don't think the fight's going to last much longer.

I think as soon as this fight hits the ground, it's Tyre's world. And yeah, I think he's just really, I think he's much better than even, and I know everyone's really high on him. I think Tyre is just better than people, even think he is right now.

I love it. Also, I will say Tyra did not finish Edgar Chiras. It's his other decision in the UFC. Oh, yeah. But no, I'm fully on board, particularly with 25 minutes. I think we are getting a finish in this one. And so hopefully Flyweight Undernation can, you know, start to rise again. A couple of other fights on this card, I'm not as confident Flyweight Under Nation is going

to be representing in. But that is your main event for U.C. Vegas 93. When we move on to the co-main event, your boy, Mike, Icrum Alaskarov, taking on Antonio Tricoli in a middleweight matchup. Your favorite, biggest favorite on the card, Iqram Alaskarov, he is up to like minus 1,600 in some places. Draft King's right now is a minus 12. And the comeback on Tricoli is hovering between, you know, around 750 plus 8,000. something like that. And I'll kick us off on this one because I got thoughts here, Mike.

And one, this is obviously your placement. Alaskarv's supposed to fight Andre Munez. And so now that's partly why he's the biggest betting favorite on the card. Though frankly, probably would have been a huge favorite over Andre Munez as well. Yep. I don't have any idea what to make of this fight because Alaskarov looks like he's the real deal. Like he has beaten two very respectable guys. in very impressive fashion.

And Tricoli has mostly beaten cans and a half. Like, if you just look at the man's resume, he'd be, you know, he has a regular regional resume. And the first time he fought, like, legitimate competition, he lost a bunch. And more importantly, this is a dude who 6'5 has fought at light heavyweight. Really is more of a natural light heavy weight, like are maybe a natural middle weight, but probably could just, you know, fill out a little bit to become a true light heavy. And we're talking about a dude who's losing to Jacob Volkman.

Like Diego Lima, these are career welter weights that he was losing to on the regional scene. Then he gets his contender series win and it's overturned for Nangelo. Like he does not have a successful career. And so I absolutely understand Alaskarov being a big, big favorite. This is so big that I just don't know that anyone could or should. be parlaying him up at this price because tricoli does at least have some advantages in that he is a massive person which leads me to where i'm going mike because i'm trying to thread a specific needle for my bet i think tricoli is not good so i think alaskarov is going to beat him but i don't think

even though i think tricoli is worse than like phil haz and warlie elvese i think the size alone is going to give Alaskarov some issues to navigate early and he is not a guy who really presses the issue. He lets the fight unfolds and figures things out. Chocoli has, for all his issues, been durable, he's never been finished.

So I think this is going to get out of the first round and then I think in the second round is when Alaskero's going to get him. And so I've gone Alaskarov via round two finish at plus 275. It's a very specific window, but that's how I envision this. And

every other bet for this fight is like you're laying pretty big minus numbers and I'm not, I'm not into that. So that's where I'm at. What about you, Mike? Yeah. I mean, I almost took it yesterday at minus 1100 because I still think there's value there on Ikram Alaskarraf at minus 1100. I didn't do that though.

But I know what everybody's thinking right now. Mike's got a lot of exposure on this fight. And boy do I. I have I have I have I grim in two parlays. one is the heavy favorite parley and one is the violence parley so i've iqram as part of a a four-leggar for never favorites parley and and parley pals i'm undefeated with four-leggers this year uh violence and he's also in my violence parley and i'll reveal the rest of those picks throughout the program so that's that's that's around right now i almost thought about under

bet or a k what's yeah it's all unders uh so i've under one and a half Excuse me. I just have it as Icrum fight instead of, because to be Tricoli is just there to do a job. He's going to do a damn good one for what the UFC is trying to do here because they're trying to sit at Grim Alaskaraf to fight Jared Kennedy or next. So he's going to go ahead and take care of business. Oh, you are so correct that that is probably the world that we live in. Shout out to Jared, who's on the MMA hour on Monday and said all the wrong things. It's not his fault.

Like it's not all the wrong things in the same way that some other people who we won't bring up because we don't need to go down that right old today. But like I totally understand him being frustrated in this situation. I don't think it's going to work out for him and he is going to be in this position. And that's unfortunate. But, you know, it's the game we play. I'm really sorry for him. Support for this show comes from Volkswagen.

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Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Roscoe Cadulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner, Brunner, Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible original blockbuster, The Downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Yes. But we're going to move ourselves on because that's the co-we've just handled the co-main. And we're going to zip through. We've got 13 fights. We've got 11 more plus some BFL to talk about.

So let's move on to a fight that we all anticipated would be a main card matchup. We've been wanting this one for a long, long time. I'm talking, of course, about Lucas Almeida versus Timmy Kuwamba, a featherweight matchup just between two guys who were previously on the contender series. Your favorite right now is Timothy Kuwamba minus 205 to come back on Almeida plus 170. Mike, I'm going to be honest, I don't understand what's happening and why this fight is a main card fight. I'm not really sure about any of this fight. So let's lead off with you.

What are your thoughts here? I have a bet on Almeida at plus 170 here. I'm not saying Timi Quamba is a bad fighter. just look at the guys that each each fighter has competed against. Like Lucas Almada's how way better guys. Like just way better dudes. Andre Feely,

Pat Sabatini, Mike Trezano, Daniel Zell Huber on the Contender series. I mean, this dude has fought really good guys. And Timi Kawamba, while he's exciting, he's 25,

he's young, he's in the toughest division in the sport. He's coming off of a loss to Balaji Oki. earlier this year in the world's most famous Apex. He does have some nice wins. Michael Stack is a guy I'm pretty high on. And beating that guy is not an easy feat.

But I think Almeida has just been in there with better guys. And if you're going to hang nearly a plus 200 on a guy who has been in there and competed with some of these bigger names, I'm going to take a shot on him. So I'm not confident in this one. But if I'm taking a side here, I think there's a shitload of value on Almeida plus 170. that's a terrific breakdown because my breakdown goes a little bit like this the best thing you can kind of say about both dudes is the opposition that have defeated them

I like Balagiochi a good deal so no shame in that loss for Timi Kowamba but I this is just the exact sort of fight I don't want to be even remotely involved in I when I fan when I when I was doing the research and I realized Timi Kualamba is a tough enough guy. There are, I think, two other dudes on this card who have graced the tough enough cage, you know, flirted with the idea there of some sort of parlay, but I just don't want to be involved in this fight. So I wish you the best of fortune in your efforts. And we're going to move on. And we're moving on to an actual, like, good fight because Louis-Zalmed to Timmy Cuombo is just not, I mean, that's the definition of an apex card, contender

series dudes that no one cares about. Miles Johns versus Douglas Silva Dandraj is maybe not like the best fight because DSA is probably a little past his prime now. 39, I think he will, it is or I think he's 39 in a couple of weeks. So maybe he's still 38 right now versus Miles Johns, who's honestly been pretty good. Like both of these two dudes, this 135 fight, they are there to me the case people. make when they say 135 is the best division because you can have guys like miles johns and douglas sylva dan dros who aren't top you know 15 probably not top 25 bannam weights but are still very very good and it's reflected in the betting lines so mile johns is a very very small favorite minus

130 the comeback on dsa is plus 110 do you have anything on this one mike no i almost pull the trigger on D SDA just because, again, he's fought really good dudes and just kind of looking at his resume. His losses in the UFC are to Rob Font, Peodor Jan, Lorone Murphy,

and Syed and Araagamadoff. Those are pretty good dudes. Those are pretty good guys. And he's beat, he's beat Marlon, he's got a win over Marlon Vera. He's been in there with some pretty decent competition. Miles Johns, to me,

is like when he was on the contenders, series, he was one of the top prospects I've ever seen on the show. So to me, I feel like he's sort of underperformed to where he could actually go in the sport and in the UFC. He's bounced around different camps, went from Fortis to, I believe he went to Glory MMA with James Krause before all that stuff went down. And it might be a factory X now. So he's kind of bounced around, hasn't really found a home just yet.

But I ultimately decided just to stay away from this one and enjoy the Banimate Chaos, because this should be a fun fight. A reasonable take, not the option I've chosen. To me, this fight is a very competitive fight. But like you, there was a time when I was very high on Miles Johns. And I have a hard time letting go of the potential I see in prospects, even if they've been in the UFC for a few years and maybe underwhelmed a bit. And when I factor that in also with the fact that,

Silver the Androge has been dropped in two of his last three fights. Like I said, he's about to be 39. 39 at Bantamweight, it's just barely feasible. Like the smaller you get, the less old you are allowed to be in fist fighting is like functionally how that graph works. And so given that, given the fact that Androge, not only is he old, he has looked older lately. I do think that that gives Johns the edge to me. And so I bet him at minus 125. And we'll see how that carries on. Next up, Asu Amabayev taking on Jose Johnson in a flyweight

fight, another flyweight fight. And I am fascinated to hear your take on this because Amabayev is, let me confirm this really quick. I think he's the second biggest favorite on the card. He is. I know that you have a big favorites parley, so I'm going to Yes, he's apiece, but he is minus 575, and Jose Johnson is plus 425. Mike, tell me why Osama Biav is going to win this fight. Because Jose Johnson can't defend grappling. He gets submitted all the time. And he's a bantam weight, not a flyweight.

So he's somehow dropping all the way down to 125. I don't know if you've seen Jose Johnson. He's a large man. That is a very, very large man who has a very hard time. grappling. And when you're fighting a Sue Alma Beyev, that's not a good formula because he will just gash you out and then he will tap you. So have some exposure. Almost had more on Al-Mabayev, almost put more exposure on him than anybody on this entire card. Because I do think he's going to win by submission. But for No Betz Bar Nation, he's, yes, Al-Mabayf is in the violence parlay,

but come on, we're going under two and a half here. All Al-A-Fa-F needs is one takedown. Under two and a half is just a beautiful thing to look at when you have someone with such grappling dominance facing a guy who's been submitted almost every time he's lost. So I have the under two and a half at minus 150. Let me tell you why you're wrong, Mike, because you are, you are incorrect. And here's why you're incorrect, Mike. You, I thought you were driving at the right goal. I thought you were there, looked like you were going to take the exit and get off. You've made one terrible miscalculation because I'm gonna let you know right now. I have no bet on this

fight. You know why I've no bet? Because this fight's not gonna happen, Mike. This fight is not gonna happen. And so I didn't wanna, I was, I literally had him in a planned parlay and then I thought I will rather just bet the other side of this straight up and choose that as a

one on one bet and not have Almibai of parlayed up because this isn't going to happen. Jose Johnson is a man who has had a tremendously difficult time getting into the cage lately three times in the last two years he has been pulled out very short notice a couple on fight week for medical issues or whatever and like you said he is enormous this is a career bantam slash featherweight he has actually competed at lightweight before in his career he is six foot and not like not skinny he is not like a skinny dude he ain't

making 1-25. Like, given the issues he's had getting to fight weak, the issues he's going to have cutting an extra 10 pounds when he's already this big, it will be a miracle to me if this fight goes through on Saturday. It is the exact sort of fight. I wouldn't even book because I love Al-Mabayev. I think Al-Mabayev is a guy who is just on the fringe of getting ranked for me in our rankings, and one more win.

Doesn't really even matter who it's over. one more win probably would pump him there and now you are running the risk of him not even getting to compete because his opponent comes in eight pounds heavy Amma by probably still would even take the fight I just don't I don't think this fight's gonna go through if it does Amabaya of all day

Johnson can't defend takedowns and he's gonna be way too gangly on the ground if it happens but I stayed away because I don't think the fight's happening if I could bet if I could bet one fight to not to get pulled fight week I would hammer this fight as the one that doesn't make it in. So tough scenes for you.

But fortunately, the other legs of your parlay are still alive as far as I'm concerned. Yes. And that brings us to the final fight on our main card, Garrett Armfield versus Brady Highstand, a Bantam weight matchup. And I got to tell you, it's a pretty fun little scrap. Competitively line, not super competitive. Armfield is a clear favorite minus 185 comeback on high stand plus 155. Mike, I know we've talked about this off air a little last week.

I know that this is a fight that you've been kind of looking forward to as a fun, old banger. What do you think's going to happen? Shout out to good old Garrett Armfield. The guy has cashed two consecutive tickets for me, and he's about to make it three. He's about to make it three. Got a nice short notice knockout. Cashed a nice.

sizable plus 185 dog ticket for me at UFC 297 in January when he beat Brad Gatona. One of my favorite bets of the year are super-duper confident in that one as well. And I'm pretty confident here. Brady Highstand is fun. I think we're going to see some good grappling exchanges, a lot of wrestling exchanges. But Garrett Armfield could crack, man. He's a really good striker. I think he's a better striker than Brady is.

And, you know, when a guy goes two for two for you, you got to ride the stay on the train. You know what I'm saying? So I took Garrett Armfield straight at minus 175. I don't hate the bet because I do think Armfield's going to win this. Not where I went, but I do have an, I do have action here. I like your breakdown. Armfield is certainly the better striker. High stand, I would give the edge to him grappling.

But I've been impressed by Armfield, you know, his last fight against Brad Catona. He lost the grappling. He got taken down pretty consistently. But he proved that he could still win the fight even with Cotona, getting control time and getting takedowns. He just outworked. And when he was on the feet, he made it difficult for him, I think. And certainly replicate that against High Sand and kind of had the same success.

But where I went instead is you've got a violence parlay. I've got a pacifist parlay cooking. And this is the first leg. It's the over one and a half here. In all three of his UFC fights, Highstand has hit this armfields in two of three of his UFC fights. Just in general, both of these two dudes in their career have gone long. longer than the midway mark of the fight, basically. And I certainly think, given the texture of this fight,

I think high stand's going to get takedowns. And so that's just going to eat up clock because I don't think he's going to get takedowns and, you know, tap or pound out armfield. So I think this one will be going a little bit later. And so this is the first leg of the Passifist parley. It's minus 325 for that leg. Two pretty decent, like smaller Pass Fest lines.

and then the chalkiest line you've ever seen we'll finish this out, but we'll get to that in a little bit. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the end of our main card, which brings us to the prelims. And our prelims main event is another flyweight fight. I told you, we're about to have back-to-back.

So many fly-weight fights, Mike. Shout out to you, Connor Birx, wherever you are on this beautiful Wednesday that we are recording. And I'm talking, of course, Tagir Ulan Bekhov, a van. For my money, the best fight of the evening that is not the main event.

Oolmbeckoff, mine is 230. Josh Van plus 190 as the underdog. Mike, what are you seeing here? It's a good fight, man. This is a good fight. And when we're talking about the main event, I said there's two fighters on this card who are getting big tests. One is more seasoned.

I think one is more ready. The other one is going to need a little bit more time. And that person I was talking about was Josh Van. I think there's a lot to like about him. He's really young. He's fun as hell to watch. This matchup is a tough one for him. It is,

especially this early in his UFC career. So I have, I don't have a side here, but I feel pretty confident stylistically Tigir is going to win. I also feel very confident that Josh Van is going to, despite losing this fight, is going to show a lot of grit

in a lot of heart, and a lot of testicular fortitude in this fight. So while this could be a 3027, maybe a 29, 28 across the board, I do think despite losing a clear decision, I do think Josh Van goes to the cards here. So the bet that I went with is to Gerlin Beckoff versus Josh Van goes to decision at plus 105. I think we're going long here.

Plus 105, I like that a fair amount because I am halfway way with you. So this is the only fight I'm doubled up on. And this is leg two of my pacifist parlay. I've got the over one and a half. It's minus 250 because I agree. I think this fight is going long. However, I am also, I'm taking a shot on Josh Van at plus 190 is the price I got him at. I'm betting on upside because he is not as season as Tyra. This is a 22 year old kid, but I think he is just a wonderful prospect. Flyweight is in such good hands in the future with the talent coming down the pipeline. And I think Ulynbekov has had a very solid career,

and certainly has run in the UFC has been excellent, but just lost to Tim Elliott, like the career guy, you know, like the guy who's just been keeping that gate to the top 10 for the last decade is told Timie Elliott. So no shame in that loss. But Ullumbeckov, I think it really does need takedowns in this fight to have success. Van has been a very good job. defensive wrestler.

And more so than that, because he can't get taken down, he's been really good at not being controlled for too long on the ground. I want to all be surprised if Ullumbekov just a little too much seasoning, just a little too good at this stage of his career, can get his grappling going and control enough to win a decision. But I love the pace, the authority van works with on the feet. I think he has an edge in the striking. And so if he can minimize what Ullumbekov can do on the feet.

the ground. I think he's got a really good chance to arrive himself. And this won't put him, you know, into the top 10. Actually, Ullumbeckoff, let me check. May in fact actually be ranked in the Ossi rankings. I'm going to pull that up right now. So actually, yeah, if Van wins this, Ullumbeckov is currently number 12, Van will probably then jump a little bit, except for Tyra is ranked number 13. If Tyra beats Alex Perez, he will also jump. But a win here for Van will get him ranked. That will be a massive victory for him. And at plus 190, I'm willing to take the shot. If the number was a little closer, maybe not, but plus 190 is a big number. And I'm, I'm just betting on the youth and the potential. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes.

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Next fight up. Another 125 or Jimmy Flick taking on Nate Maness. Your favorite right now. Not terribly surprising, though maybe the price is. Manessa minus 485 favor. One of the biggest favorites on the car to come back on Jimmy Flick is. plus 370. And Mike, I'll take the lead here because I don't, I'm not involved in this fight.

I thought about it. I looked at it. I was really trying to put together some sort of a flyweight parlay, but my views on each fight are so different. It wasn't like a flyway favorites or whatever. This one, I think Maness is going to win. I just frankly think he is too physical for Jimmy Flick. And Flick has not looked good since coming back from his surprise retirement.

But then he does get the submission finish of. Malcolm Gordon in January. Maness has had just an incredibly difficult booking schedule. And like we touched on a lot. Like he's fought a lot of good dudes. Hasn't been any of them. And so it's this is an exact sort of fight. Like I think Maness is going to win.

I am super not interested in this price on him. But that's just kind of where I'm at. But is Maness also in the heavy favorite parlay? No. He's not because I think that's a reasonable choice. Yeah. It's, it's, it's like too much. 45, because anything can happen with Jimmy Flick, man.

But I'm with you. I think Nate should win this fight. He is, he brings a style that, unless he's fighting the dudes that he's been fighting, that you like. He's kind of a hoss. He's a big physical dude. He hits pretty hard when he gets the actual chance. And Jimmy Flick, while he is a grappling wizard, just an awful.

awful wrestler like so bad like he's a he's a trip guy or he's a you know reverse position guy a a sweep guy but he's not a guy that's going to shoot a single or a double and and transition into actual wrestling takedowns he's just not that dude so what he needs to hope for is that nate mainis gets a little too crazy and then jimmy can get a a dominant position and pull off a submission but i just don't see it happening i don't have a side here but this screams under one and a half to me I don't think we're going around to with this one. So I just took the under one and a half at minus 2.10. I think that's either Flick's going to get knocked out in the first round

or Flick's going to survive and pull off some miraculous submission out of nowhere. Fletch or he's going to get clobbered. That seems, but I actually don't. I don't hate that even a little bit. Which brings us finally to a not flyweight fight just for a moment. Josh Quinlan taking on Adam Fuget. I prefer Fuggett because it's quite a funny way to say his name. And Mr. Fugget is your underdog at plus 105, whereas Josh Quinlan is minus 125.

A deeply, deeply competitive fight here, according to the bookmakers. And I've got to say I agree with the bookmakers. This is, neither of these two dudes are ever going to go on a title run. I would be a little bit surprised if either of them ever even found their way into the rankings. But they are good, competent fighters. I mean, they've lost two quality guys. That's just where their level is. But what they are good at and what I anticipate going to happen here,

these two dudes, they get her get got, baby. Fuggett hasn't gone to a decision since 2017. 11 straight have not seen the judge's scorecards. Quinlan has one decision in his entire career. It was the Trey Waters one in the UFC, but these are two dudes who are going to settle their business without the need of three cage side viewers. And so I just took the inside the distance.

Didn't go for the under two and a half because the price was very negligible. So minus 160 inside the distance. And I feel pretty quality about this getting done. Yeah, this is leg two of the violence parley. Holy jocks. Along with the Icramales, Gareth under one and a half, under two and a half. Just a no brainer here. So that is leg two of the violence parley.

Josh Quinlan, Adam Fuggett. I mean, you ran off, I'm sorry, Fuggets. So, it's a way better name. Not going to the cards. And Josh Quinlan, I think, has only been to the cards once in his entire career. So this fight is not going to last very long. It certainly ain't going two and a half. So, yeah, feel pretty good about it.

Well, to all the young fighters listening, as I know the millions and millions of you are, just understand your role. Not everyone is going to be a title contender, a Tatsu, or Tira, but everybody can. can be an Adam, fuck it. Everybody can be fun. That's just a choice that you make whether you're going to be fun or not. So if you realize in your career that, hey, I'm probably not going to be the greatest of all time,

but I can get some bonuses. I can be a guy who's going to be employed for a while because of the way I fight. Do that because both of these gentlemen seem to have found that lane in their career. Our next fight, a women's flyaway fight. Carly Judee's Contender Series prospect taking on Gabriela Fernandez. Fernandez is your favorite minus 155. That price is continuing to move on her with the comeback on Judice at plus 130. Mike, I will lead us again because Judice was one of my people.

You said earlier you bet on the people who, you know, two in a row you keep riding them. Judice was one of my big paws on a puppy contender series prospects. That was the penultimate tier. the people I thought were young and the best future prospects in their coming off of the show in the most recent season. Nine and O those fighters are in the UFC thus far. So undefeated, I've bet on them every time and I got to tell you that is probably the sole reason I have been a productive bear in the year 2024. This one I am, I'll be honest, I got some concerns here. I think this is actually the first one of these, this category of fighter who is an underdog in there.

their fight. Maybe one of the other ones was. But I can absolutely see Gabriella Fernandez winning this fight. I have bet on Carly Judice because you support your people and she's one of my people. Truth is she is, she made that tier because of her long-term prospects. She is 24 and has been fighting for three years, basically. She is super, super raw, but has shown certainly some ability to strike and a ton of toughness, ruggedness, just a willingness to compete at a high level already. And so if she can continue to grow and develop, I like her long-term prospects. Issues, she's a little reckless for someone so young, obviously, and probably needs to fill out a little bit more.

She's tall enough for this weight class and probably too tall to realistically make $1.15 consistently, but she needs to fell out. And both of those are things that Gabriella Fernandez can take advantage of. She is a little bit more physically bodied and a little more technical on the feet. But I actually still think Judice has a really good chance because Fernandez is so cautious to a point of almost timidity in the cage. And so Judice is not whatever she is, let me tell you, Carla Judice is not timid. She is going to come in and throw the kitchen sink at you.

You got a good chin and she'll just let the chip. falls. So I'm back in my girl and I hope that we move to 10 and 0 for my Contender Series prospect list. I love your breakdown of this. Judes has, it's not exactly the same, but I have Macy Barber vibes, like old Macy Barber vibes when I look at her just because of how aggressive she is. And, you know, she might be a little undersized. But, you know, once she starts filling out, she's going to be real tough to beat. And, you know, who knows? Maybe eventually she'll, she'll, she'll bump up and and just sort of fill out that young, just athletic frame that she has. She is fun to watch, man.

And if I was going to bet on this fight, I would bet on her. I think this is a dog or pass fight. I think getting her a plus 130 is actually really good. But ultimately, I have way too many bets. I just, I can't do it. I couldn't do it. So this is one of the few fights that I actually stayed away from. I think that's reasonable.

Plus, look, Lafayette, Louisiana, DP, shout out. The only person that I highly ranked on contingency series who lost, she actually lost a splitie to Ernesto Carricate. And I ranked her above Carricade in my Condender Series breakdown because she is so fun, man. She is, at the worst, she's going to be incredibly fun. And if she developed, she's going to be real good. So hopefully that starts with Fernandez. We keep moving. Just a few fights left.

and I'll be honest, I have one bet left to finish out of Parlay. I'm done with my singles here. So we can move a little faster, unless you got a lot to say about this one, a 145 pound fight, the featherweight division, Jekka Saragi taking on Weston Wilson. Sergi, I would bet my bottom dollar is in your big favorites. Parlay, because he's minus 355. Western Wilson's plus 280.

Mike, tell me why the Indonesian sensation. is in this parley uh sarahy's actually in both parley is uh i i got to tell you i love i love that absolutely firm is ergie's in the big favorite parley that's leg three and then uh this rounds out the violence parley as well saragie wilson under one and a half uh combined with quinland fugit under two and a half and the ikram fight under one and a half pays plus 224 just for those three legs uh so there's a ton of value there i was almost going to add a fourth leg to it and then i was like I just have way too much exposure on some of these. So look, this is more, this is less about Saragi and more about Western Wilson.

Western Wilson should, Weston Wilson should not be in the UFC. He's really, really bad. It's like uncomfortable to watch him inside the Octagon because he's just, he's just not there. He should not. It's promotional malpractice that he's in the UFC. And his last fight was so ridiculously uncomfortable to watch. and Sarghi's just going to have, I mean,

he's just going to have target practice until Wilson falls. And boy, I'm very confident that he will fall very, very quickly after maybe three or four punches. So yeah, this is pretty easy to add to the parlay. I would probably pick both of these legs no matter who Weston Wilson was fighting.

Like literally, if you were fighting Weston Wilson, I would put you in both legs of this parlay. I would tell you, I don't think that's the right call, but I understand where you're coming from on that. Ferm agree, Sergi is going to win. Sergi is not a bet for me only because I literally had planned to bet him with Osor Al-Mabayev. And when I was like, when Almabayev...

That's not happening. When Almabayev doesn't get to fight, do I want to just have a straight bet on Czech Sergi at minus 350? Probably not. I got plenty of action. I'm good without this. So it's going to win. I'm going to get a finish, Weston Wilson. It's just not really U.S. C caliber, and that's all there is to say to it,

which takes us to the fight I have a bet on here. My final one of the card, Yosephine Nutsin, taking on Julia Pallastri in a women's strawweight bout, I guess just a strawweight bout. Nutson a healthy favorite, minus 192. Come back on Pallostria at plus 160. And if you've listened to a lot of this show lately or this year, I've been, there's been a theme. I've gotten away from it the last few weeks, but there's just no way I'm not going to be on this one.

I have a pacifist parley brewing. And Nutson Pallostri is the third leg of it. The over one and a half is minus 600. Six of seven have gone to the cards for Nutson. All three of Pallastry's losses have been by decision. I all flirted with nuts and by decision instead. But I'm not sure that I think she's probably going to win this fight. She's, you know, better team, kind of better all-around fighter.

I think she certainly has grappling advantages. But, you know, a reasonable kickboxer in her own right as well. It is just a fire was like, you know, I'm good. I don't want to have a lot of exposure here. I will just take this over one and a half, which they basically have hit in all. of their career fights combined and call it a day. So that's where I'm at. Mike, what about you? I hope Canootsu wins because she is the final leg. This is the riskiest leg of the big favorite parlay. But I, I, Joseph Canutzen is just a, she's just a nut job in there. And I love every second of it.

She's just, she just gets after it. She's so hard to get out of there. She can strike. She can grapple. and she's just, it's like watching like an 80s cartoon when two cartoon characters fight. Just a ball of dust and then somebody walks out. It's usually Josephine Knudsen. And when you're in the gym with fighters such as, I don't know, Hamzat Shemayev, yeah, that's a pretty good recipe for you're a badass. And you can deal with adversity.

You can deal with pretty much anything that a lot of these fighters can throw at you. I think that Knutson's fought better competition. Palastry's on a nice run, but it's kind of one of those situations where she hasn't been anybody like really great. The Kalindraferia win was pretty impressive, but other than that, just, you know, nothing that really stands out.

So I think this fight's going to be sort of crazy, a little bit of a firefight, and give me Josephine Knutzen and all of those. So that will round out the heavy favor parlay with Saragi. Icramal Scariff and Olive Gap that pays at plus 138. That's not a bad. It's not bad. I would say Knuton is the biggest risk there, but I still like your chances to cashier.

And you'll know immediately. You'll know whether it hits immediately. She's the first one up, which brings us to... I have less exposure on this one than the violence parley. Reasonable. And that brings us to our final fight, our first fight of the evening, the event opener between Melchizedau Costa and Shailan, Nerden, Beekke. I have no idea if I got either of those correct.

I sincerely apologize to either, man. I'm sure you're listening. If I got those incorrect, hit me with an email. We'll improve. We're always about getting better here. But I have no action on this. And I also really have no idea what's going to happen in this fight. If a gun to my head, Costa probably wins, he's a little more active.

But I tried to get a feel for this. I can't visualize where how this fight will take place, what it will look like. So I entirely stayed away. Mike, did you, do you got to feel a vibe here? Anything? Nope. Stayed away. Completely stayed away from it.

It's just, you know, Steve Garcia melted both of these dudes in like their most recent fights. So I would, this is probably doggar pass for me. Like if I'm this unsure. and you're giving me nearly plus 170 on a guy who's pretty good and has got a lot of experience. I'm probably going to like, I'd probably lean Nurt and Becca on the value side of it, but I just, I'm not confident literally in either side. So I think this is going to be fun as hell to watch.

So I'm just going to sit back. Hopefully this is not UFC Louisville in the early stages. And hopefully this one is a nice table setter because it seems like between this fight, the Kuditsin-Palastri fight right into. Saddegi, Weston Wilson, right into Carly Judas, right into Quinlan Fuget, right into Flick Mainis? Like, I think we could get a lot of action early on this card. I mean, they're fighting for nothing except the second paycheck. There are no actual divisional stakes and really any of these fights outside of the main event in the Ewan Beka Van Fight, but I do think this is going to be

pretty fun to watch. So yeah, I will watch that one as a fan and enjoy it, but have no actual investment in it at all. Well, I hope it'll be fun to watch. And that brings us, before we close the show, we do have a PFL. Is this PFL happening on Friday? No, sorry, Thursday PFL. So we'll fire this out because I have put together a PFL parlay. I say PFL and by technical definition, this is a PFL fight card. boy this looks a lot like a bellator card that you might get in the various times the only difference being uh what is this is this the uh is this the heavies what's what are the what are the seasons heavies and light heavies fly weights oh when that's right women's flyweight then what the hell is

is tiara santos and heavy yeah okay terrific um anyway I don't know that's happening, but okay. PFL 3, PFL 4 Thursday night. This is headlined by Valentin Moldowski v. Linton Vassel. Also, co-main event Dakota Dacheva. I have no bets on either of those fights. I have put together one PFL parlay. Very simple.

Four legs. Feel good about each leg individually. Don't know if you've done the same, Mike. But I was just, I just kind of quick looked at this one. like, well, Liz Karmouche is going to beat Kanaway. I like Kanawatea in general, but Liz Karmouz, very good fighter. Going to win that one. Tiago Santos has not been good in a long time, and then it's called Saul's probably going to beat him.

Tyler Santos, he's going to beat Jenna Bishop. Like, I know she had a little more difficult time than we anticipated, but Thais Karmuzon is going to beat Jenna Bishop. And then I wrap this up with the, probably the, like, riskiest leg of this in general, but I still, it's whatever, because it's not like Julianne of Alaskas, Lisa Malden isn't good. I think Julianne Velazquez has kind of not had a good run lately, and so that can be a bit concerning, but yeah, just wrap that up.

And honestly, if you just wanted to take every big favorite on the PFL card, I don't think that's wrong, but I just took those four, and it pays out a plus 149 on draft Kings right now. that that's where I'm at on this PFL card. I know you've got some PFL action. Tell me what it is. Yeah, I got a four-legged as well. I have half of what you have.

I might actually add a fifth leg to this. I might actually add Liz Karmouche to this. That's the thing. I thought about really beefing this up because it's like, Moldowski's going to win. You know, I got him. I got him,

DeCeva, Santos, and Velasquez. It pays a plus 106. Yeah. But I might add carbush. in there too just to like have real fun because let me tell you something that you had i got to get invested somehow in pfl's cards because they're just not good you don't i'm not working this tomorrow

the fact that the fact that we both work in the sport and we did not know that this was happening on thursday is a problem it's it's it's tough that they don't have a day that they do like because like i've been pretty used to pfl doing friday stuff that like a random thursday so it's so odd uh the only reason I knew it is because I'm working tomorrow and when my shift was different, I was like, oh, now that must be why. Yeah, I mean, all the favorites are very likely to win tomorrow is, is basically the long and short of this. And so if you wanted to parlay them all up, what does that even get yet? If you parlay all the favorites on this BFL card up, excluding the Ilar Joanne versus Shawnee Young fight, because that's pretty tight. And I don't think I know that that

well enough. If you parlay all the favorites plus 1190 and I gotta tell you that's probably a winner tough to you know do 10 fights or whatever but still probably a winning combination. But that's for tomorrow. It's too risky. It's too risky. There's a banana peel somewhere in there so you don't need to open yourself up to that but I've just done the four. It's where I'm at and that's where we're at. We are done, Mike Heck. UFC Vegas 93 PFL. There's some boxing and some other stuff happening, but I don't have any action on that. I may end up, but I still haven't done the work on that because we've got other things to

to attend to. Like, is UFC 303 going to happen? Who's going to be involved if it does? Can't say. Nobody knows for sure. Oh, and also, by the way, Chelt Sondon's boxing Anderson Silva in a fight that I don't think anyone can watch. so it's yeah unless you're in brazil then you can watch it uh gee gets to watch it the rest of us do not shout out to you garmate cruz and shout out to you mike heck for stepping in um when

connor birch could not handle the emotional tragedy of this many flyweight fights in and what we used to be as a country and so i thank you for you're joining us uh and after this mike we're finally into the good stuff it is the road to Saudi Arabia, the road to Riyadh, UFC, on ABC, no less. ABC, Hamzaa Shemayev is finally back. He's taking on Robert Whitaker, Sergey Pavich, Alexander Volkov, Johnny Walker, Volcano, a very, very good card. And I got to tell you, I couldn't be more excited for next weekend and the week after,

assuming it happens. But for now, thanks for listening to everybody. Love y'all. with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to luxe beauty and fragrance sets, our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com. With Instacard, you get groceries that over-deliver,

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