MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Who Will Hear 'And New' At UFC 295 And How Can You Profit?

Episode Date: November 8, 2023

The No Bets Barred boys are back this week with a full breakdown of UFC 295 and the promotion's return to Madison Square Garden with two vacant title fights. In the co-main event, Sergei Pavlovich takes on Tom Aspinall for the interim heavyweight title and then in the main event, former light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka looks to reclaim the belt he never lost when he faces former middleweight champion Alex Pereira. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a small celebration for a major milestone before jumping into UFC 295 and all 13 fights set to take place in New York City. Topics include figuring out who exactly will get the W in the marquee fights, what should we make of Jessica Andrade's terrible 2023, and a minor flirtation with an old reliable. Tune in for episode 68 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, The Downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. What is going on, y'all?

We are back with another edition of No Bet's Barred. This time, UFC 295, the promotion. Comes up to my neck of the woods, New York City, the Big Apple. concrete jungle. They say this is where dreams are made of, Jed, and we got a big card on our hands. I am very, very excited for this one.

How are we feeling, brother? Brother, we can't bury the lead here. Oh. Yeah, sure. UFC 295, yeah. Whatever. 100, buddy. I mean, I wasn't going to say it,

but I got a flex on him, baby. I mean... One hundred. It's a monkey off the bag. It feels like a real accomplice. has been made. Yeah, I mean, you know, if we want to get emotional, if we want to get into it, like, didn't know if this moment was going to come, especially around like mid-June.

Felt like all I could put up was just stinker. This year was tough. I mean, stinker after stinker. There was one card I remember vividly, Kikara Franzen Mir al-Bazi, I believe it was in the apex. I want to say it was like June 3rd. Lost like 12 units on the night. I was like, what's going on? What is up with me, man?

I don't know. Like, I can't, I couldn't hit a dartboard if it was two feet in front of my face right now and you were giving me just lay up bets. I didn't know what was going on. I mean, all the way through the Sean Strickland, Abis Magametteoff card, I was just throwing up losers. I was down like 32 units on the year after that card. I was like, holy shit.

Like, if I can get back to even, I'm going to be happy. Like, if I can just get my head back above water for the year, I'll be happy. and boy, I mean, knock on wood, but we have hit a run of all runs. 14 of the last 16 weeks we have cash profit on, up 22 units on the year now, and sure enough, we hit the old one Hyundai mark. I mean, it feels good. I have to say it feels good. I didn't know if you'd be here today, honestly.

I thought there was a chance that we might just turn on the equipment and you're gone. Like at the end of Goodwill hunting, no, no, no, just gone, just vanished into the east. He never placed another bet again. He was there for one reason and one reason only. But no, you know, I mean, it's become a way of life, I have to say. One day I will stop betting on every single UFC card and doing breakdowns for every single UFC card. But until that day comes, I mean, it's just become ingrained in me.

I mean, I woke up Sunday morning, 8 a.m., I'm fishing lines. I'm checking who's going to drop the props first. I need to hit this over under one and a half. on the co-main event. Like, I mean, the hunger didn't go away. I mean, now we're just right back at zero. Now we're trying to get to 200. I mean, I love the new goal.

Can I just say one very minor criticism? Please. If you're going to break 100, do it at 295, buddy, not UFC Sao Paulo, the most forgettable of forgettable cards. So some people have mentioned that to me that I should have held out just a little bit. But in my defense, Jeltena Almeida has been a special fighter for me. you know, we can discuss his performance on Saturday evening. He's won me, many of the units that I have won over the course of this two-year journey.

I mean, we started this bad boy, a UFC 266 back in September of 2021. So, I mean, it's not like we got to 100 units overnight. This thing took a while. It took about two years and two months. Jeltenra Meda, though, special fighter along the journey. It was always supposed to be him. He was the one that pushed me over the threshold. I can understand that.

I mean, he, maybe that is more fitting. But yeah, it's going to take you a long time if we're just spotting 30 units, you know, in the middle of the year. That didn't help. I had to dig myself out of whole. It humbled me. It humbled me. Brought me back down to Earth made me realize, you know, there's going to be cold streaks along the way on this. I have to say, in Jilton's defense, in Jelton's defense, I mean, he was fighting an uphill battle.

not only was I wearing a Jelton Almeida T-shirt, we know how this goes with fighters, I also bet Jilton Al-Meda by sub, and we know I can't hit a sub-propp to save my life. So, I mean, it was an uphill battle. It was your fault. Yes, he showed out for the circumstances that he had. I just have to say that.

It's, I mean, I didn't even think of the sub-bett prop curse, but I mean, there was just no chance at that point in time. What was the man going to do? It was never going to hit. It was never going to hit. It was just like, I was the biggest, I got a decent line, like plus 105, but like still just as square as they come. And I got good news for you, Jed.

I got a sub prop on this card, too. Oh, fantastic. It's a little zag when people zig. We'll get into it. Well, now I'm confused. I had a guess, but now I don't know. Now I do not know. It's not in the main event.

It's not the main event. I didn't, okay. Actually, I was eyeing another one that I never. that I didn't get around to, but I mean, if we really want to get dicey and dance around, we might get a second sub prop on this one. I mean, I'm feeling good at this point. I mean, I'm feeling loose. I mean, it's like I'm the guy that, you know, it doesn't matter how many title defenses I have.

I got the belt. You can never take it away from me. At one point, at one point, I was up over 100 units. Like, I was the, you know, I did it. I've been stamped. I've been certified. So now you can't take it away. for me, even if I just run cold the rest of my life.

At one point, I was that guy. Forever, they have to call you champion now. And so, yeah, that's, well, I'm excited to get into this card because this was a weird one, Connor, $2.95's odd. Good card. I'm excited about these fights. Well, some of these fights I cannot wait for. I'm not excited about some of these bets, though.

I ended up getting a rough, a foolish schedule, but I don't know. Don't have a ton of confidence anyway, which is why I'm excited about the fights. I don't know what's going to happen. That's the best way. I mean, that's the best way to put it. I mean, some of these fights are things of beauties. Should we dive in? Should we just jump right in?

Madison Square Garden? We've got 13 fights, so we've got to get to it. New York City, Manhattan. It doesn't get any bigger than this. Headlining Madison Square Garden for our two gentlemen in the main event of the evening. Obviously, you know, John John Stepe, Miochich, off the card. Let's just go ahead and bump these two. warriors up to the spotlight.

Vacan light heavyweight champions, Yeri Prohoshka taking on Alex Pereira. And you said it, dude. Close odds. Draft King's sportsbook right now. Alex Pereira, minus 122, Yuri Prohashka coming back at plus 102. What a fight this is.

Terrific fight. We did a thing on MAAFind.com terrific website, not that long ago about what were our favorite fights remaining on the schedule. and this was the unanimous number one. Got this was even when we still had John Jones, Depe. Easily. This is, I mean, this is my everything.

I love this fight so much. And I'm real torn here, Connor. Real torn for a number of reasons. I'm excited to hear your thoughts, so maybe you can push me one way or another. Yeah, so I actually share the same sentiment as you. This might be my most anticipated fight of 2023. Like, I am such a huge fan of both of these guys. These guys bring the violence.

have such an aura about both of them that, like, I just, I don't know who to cheer for. I don't think I'm going to cheer for anyone. I think I'm just going to react and enjoy the fight. But you said it, man. I mean, there's kind of some unknowns here. This is only the second fight at light heavyweight for Alex Pereira. Yeri, coming back from 16 months off, 17 months off, and a horrendous what the UFC claims is the worst shoulder injury that they've ever seen. There are, are some unknowns going into this one. And then... Let's add.

Let's add. Because you said, yeah, Alex Pereira's second fight. Still only a seventh fight in the UFC. You want to know what the craziest part about this? Seventh fight for Alex Pereira? Fourth. Fourth UFC fight for Yerri Prohashka. I know he's got a million fights over in Risen and everything like that, but it's just

like these guys have a combined, what, 10 fights right now? Nine fights in the UFC? Nine. Nine currently. And they've had three title fights between them. One of them has the chance to become a champion in two different divisions. I think they have like four main events. Like it's like ridiculous the stats that these guys put up for the amount of time that they've been within the promotion.

It like it kind of warped my brain when I was like going back and doing some tape study that I was like, damn, Yerre really only has three fights in the UFC. Yeah. Like it is, it is crazy. So yeah, I mean there is unknowns. And then the last unknown, dude, these guys are bangers, bro. Like, they both have massive, massive power. Alex Pereira, obviously illustrious kickboxing career.

Shout out to him. Glory, Hall of Fame, only the third member of it this past weekend. Insane knockout power, six of his eight wins in MMA coming by knockout. Yuri Prohashka, 25 of his 29 wins in MMA coming by knockout. So, like, anyone can get gotten this matchup. So when it comes to who's going to win, I don't know. I really don't know, man. If I'm being totally honest, I'm not going to sit here and be like, well, the patience of Alex Pereira and the wildness of Yuri Barha's going to leave an opening and he's going to be able to catch him with a left hook early on in the second round.

I really, I don't know who is going to win the fight. And I love that. And the odds reflect it. And I love it. And I can't wait for it. Headlining, Madison Square Garden. I cannot wait for this fight. Yeah, this is a great way to end the night.

Super pumped. I think there's no way this fight doesn't deliver based on just what we've seen of these two dudes. Yere's a chaos merchant. So it's just all like, Yuri's just never going to be in a boring fight. It's just amazing. It's just,

he's incapable of it. So I got a bet here. And then I'm debating on having a second bet. And the bet is fight pretty simple. Fight doesn't start round three. Like minus 1.30. Seems like a good solid bet to me. It's one of those situations.

where I'm not even sure that the odds makers have this right with the minus 130 because the under two and a half is is bigger than that minus 130. Yeah, well, it's like minus 180. Yeah, so that just feels like someone may have made a mistake somewhere, but I just like the bet in general. Like I like the under two and a half. I think in my heart of heart, it's gone to my head. I would pick Alex Pereira here.

I think he's just going to boop year. I think, you know, you're joking, but actually, actually do sort of think that what you said in your announcer voice was true. Yeri is a little too chaotic. Perera is just going to be able to find the left hook. He is, I would say pound for pound, the hardest puncher in the sport. We've seen Yeri get hurt. I haven't been finished, but we've seen him get hurt.

I don't like those chances. And Pereira's just never going to underestimate this dude again. My issue, though, is I have a future bet on Yeri into 2023 chance. champion. So I could bet the Pereira, I could make the hedge, I could guarantee myself for cash one way or the other here, but or do I just let it ride? I'm just not sure what to do here, you know? I mean, this is a tough situation being for you. I mean, I say you just let it ride. Let it ride. Gives you a little skin in the game in terms of a side. So what I did from a betting standpoint, I like the violence prop. I used the under four and a half in a parlay.

But when I was looking at the odds, when I was looking at the prop odds, I saw Alex Pereira by knockout plus 100. And I saw Yuri Prohoshka by knockout plus 200. And like I get last time out, he sub, Glover Tashara in like an absolutely ridiculous sequence that it ended up getting the rear naked choke. Before that, he hadn't had a submission since 2014. Mentioned it earlier, 25 of his 29 wins are by knockout. You're talking about a coin flip fight where the most likely path to victory for both of these guys. as his knockout. Plus 200.

I said, well, maybe we can get this a touch juice here. Maybe we can get this a touch juice here. So what I did, it's on Fandul. Yuri Prohashka by Kio round two or three plus 550. It's a little flyer. It's not like I'm insanely confident in it. I know you said you have fight doesn't start round three.

I feel like as chaotic as Yuri is, I feel like the patience of Alex Pereira will prevail in round one and we'll see the second round start. And then from there, I don't see the fourth round starting. And I'm with you. I probably don't see the third round starting. But just a little flyer, just a little something. Because like Alex Pereira knockout round two and three was like plus 290. I'm like, man, this is a wild disparity in odds for a coin flip fight where this is the most likely path to victory for both of these guys. I don't hate it. Um, yeah. I, what were the fight knockout odds in rounds one or two?

I really have trouble seeing this fight last, you know, past 10 minutes. I think he's just going to get after it. Here's an argument against that. Uri Pro Hoshka, no first round finishes in the UFC. Second round, second round, fifth round. That's a big sample size as we've established those three fights in the UFC. Yes, I know. Alex Brera, the only one that he had a first round finish.

was the Sean Strickland fight. Like his tend to go a bit longer. I know he is like this absolute power puncher, but like Andreas Michelitis made it to a second round. I know he used the grappling a lot, but like, listen, it's going to be a sweat. I understand that with how Yeri fights and the power that Poetan holds. And in the power that Yerre can just put you dog out.

Like we've seen it and he can do it in a myriad of odd ways. It's going to be a sweat. It's going to be a fun sweat. And if we get to round two, then it's on. I mean, it's on like Donkey Kong. Then the sweat really starts. If you survive five minutes, you're feeling okay. Oh, then I'm feeling good.

Then it's just like time for someone to get booped, bonged, put on out. And yeah, I mean, I'm happy if either guy wins. Really, I'm a very big fan of either of these dudes. So, yeah, with the disparity of odds, I said, yeah, round, round two. two or round three. Let's have some fun. I like it. What I like the most is using the under four and a half as a parlay piece.

I think that's just a terrific parlay piece. Yeah, I mean, they don't, these guys, they have 43 fights between them. 39 have not gone to a decision. That was pretty good. That's not bad. I like those odds. Yeah. I like that as a parley piece.

I love that you're adding a little sweat, you know, just, it's important to get a good sweat going. I got a couple good sweats. At one a.m. on Saturday night. Yeah. I got a couple good sweats on this card. Quite a few big plus money, just some darts to throw out to have a little fun.

I mean, we're in New York City. We might as well live it up. So it feels like we're in agreeance, like maybe lean Alex, but confidence-wise, not huge on it. None. No confidence anywhere in this one. Well, let's keep going to the co-main event. Kind of a similar. You'll fight where I don't have a ton of confidence.

Kind of a similar setup. The interim heavy. weight championship, Sergey Pavlovich taking on my man, Tommy Aspinall. Amin. Aspenna. Tommy,

Tommy, yeah, da, da, da, da, da, da, da. Yeah, if the main event wasn't a coin flip enough for you, the co-main event, minus 118, Aspinol,

minus 102, Sergey Pavlovich. Yeah, I mean, again, just what an absolute fight this thing is about to be. This is, I mean, You talk about killers.

Like you just talk about outright killers. Heavyweight division. Aspinall, 16 fights, 16 finishes, 13 in the first round. Pavlovich, 19 fights. 16 finishes, 16 in the first round. So that's 35 pro fights between the dudes. 91% finish rate, 83% coming in the very first round. Just can't imagine.

I can't imagine this fight is not about to be fun. Like, I just cannot imagine it's not about to be fun. But yeah, like when it comes... It could not be fun. I can't imagine it's not going to be short. Like, it might not be fun because it might be over in 20 seconds. Right, right, right. Literally.

Like, literally, there is a world. Like, in fact, literally 20 seconds. Nothing would surprise me. Nothing would surprise me. When it comes to making a pick, I mean, obviously, I'm going to be riding with my boy Tommy. that's known that uh you know i that is known i will be supporting manchester zone i'm a manchester man i will be supporting tom aspinall in this one but i mean that i mean it's just like does pavlovitch catch him does pavlovitch just like flurry rush him and there's nothing tom aspinall can do

does aspan all duck and get a takedown uh and then it's a wrap from there does aspirin all catch pavlovich like there's just so many routes to this bad boy getting finished And I can't have any confidence in knowing what the route's going to be. I mean, these dudes are coming in on short notice. Like, who knows what the game plan is going to be? I have to imagine. I have to imagine that Tom Aspinall is going to attempt to wrestle here. Like, it just, I mean, if Curtis Blades is not the perfect example of like,

yeah, man, you probably shouldn't try and stand and bang with Ivan Drago. Because, like, just hasn't really been working out for people lately. No, no, it has. Most people don't have a good time when they try and stand and bang with Sergey Pavlovich. You know, that's really a succinct way to put it. I hope you have conveyed this message to Tom Aspinall and in your dealings with him this week. He told me he's just biting down on the mouthpiece and letting it rip. I was like, I could absolutely buy that from Tom.

I can absolutely buy that from Tom. I got a bet here I don't have a wild level of confidence but because I don't have a wild level of confidence I turned it over to our friends at chat GPT turned it over to the robots and the robots were pretty decisive here Connor I mean there was not a lot of room for error

midway through the first round the moment arrived Aspenol saw an opening unleash a devastating combination Chris left hook powerful right cross sent Pavilich crash into the canvas referee rush to stop the fight first round knockout wow and I can see it because like yes I think it would obviously be much better

for Aspenol to take this fight to the ground the one time we have seen Pavlovich fail it was Alasor Overeem that was a long time ago five years ago I gotta suspect that Pavlovich's take down defense a little bit a little bit better since then might not be as easy

maybe Aspinall just says you know I haven't really been prepping. I'm coming in on 12 days notice. If I do a lot of grappling, that's just, that's just going to burn a gas tank that I don't have out. He's really fast. Like, I would say aspirin is the faster guy, both hand speed, foot speed. Pavlovich has really good timing and obviously the insane power, but Aspenol's, you know, no slouch in the power department either. I could see him standing and just, just mixing it up on the feet for a little bit. I think this fight's almost certainly going to be finished in under a minute, not a minute and a half, under a round and a half.

But I'm betting Tommy Aspinall per chat, GPT, and I'm going to be using the under two and a half as a parlay piece. Yeah, so I am on the under one and a half. I mean, just like, I say this sometimes and sometimes it doesn't work out for me. Statistically speaking, I just have to play it. Like, it's just like, what are the odds on that under one and a half? I got minus 175. It's sitting around minus 205 on a couple books right now. Yeah, I mean, it's just like I just have to play it. Their average fight times are like two minutes and two minutes and ten seconds respectively. I mean, dude, I'm looking at Sergey Pavlovich's UFC stats page and it's just round one, round one, round one, round one, round one, round one, round one, round one.

And like some of these are 55 seconds, 54 seconds, a minute six to 11. Like it's just like his game plan is to come out here and just flurried. you with massive punches until you're asleep. All I got to do is touch you and you're done. And then I mean, you're like both these guys, UFC careers,

they've never been over one and a half. It's a must play for me. Like, I have to play it. I live for fights like this where it's just like the statistics. Like, if you want to sweat,

you want to sweat, take the over one and a half in this one. Look, Sergei Pavlovich is probably single-handedly responsible for the death of heavy weight over. I mean, it's like a Charles Oliver.

verify, Sergei Pavlovich or Tom Aspinol is getting in there. I can guarantee you I'm playing the under. If they're both getting in there against each other, yeah, I'm just have to play the under. So yeah, I mean, one thing I will say about Sergey Palovich, obviously the power is insane. But most of the time when he, like, when he's been getting these wins of late, it's usually him just like unloading a flurry. Like, it's not so much just like they're kind of, you're kind of He doesn't sleep them. Right. Like, they're not just standing there and he just lands one punch

and dude is just completely asleep. Like, it's not like the Francis and Ghanu type. So, like, we're going to see Aspinall's chin at work. Like, Blades hung in there for a while. Tried to go to the wrestling a little too late. It wasn't successful. And it was just kind of like we were just waiting for it to end. So, like, maybe Aspinall uses the speed, the elusiveness.

to set something up. But, I mean, we know what Sergey Pavlovich is going to do. He's going to come in here, and he's just going to bum rush your ass. He's bigger. He's stronger. He's been quicker than most of his opponents so far, and he's got more power than you. So we know the game plan. How does Tom Aspenol adjust to that?

I just feel like you got to make an attempt at the wrestling. If he stuffs it, bite down on the mouthpiece and off for the best. But you're like, because if he gets it to the, the mat, especially Aspinall is good on the ground. Like, I feel like he can have success if he gets this thing down. Absolutely. I mean, you know, maybe not because again, we just haven't. Yeah, we just haven't seen that part of Pavlidge game.

ATT guy, I'm sure he's working on it. But, I mean, Tom Aspinall has looked like a monster when he's on top. Yes, if he can get takedowns, that is absolutely the strategy he should employ. I just think, don't know, have no idea what's going to happen. All of the variables here are wide open. The fact that we've seen Sergey Pavlovich and Tom Aspenol fight a bunch and still really don't even know that much about them because they've just run over everyone they fought. It makes this fight really compelling.

Super, super unsure what's about to happen. Sergey Pavlovich has an 84-inch reach. That is just insane. He's a gigantic person. He's just an enormous human being. Terrifying. He lands 8.72 strikes. He's also like a square. He's built just like a freaking box.

He's a rectangle. Yeah, he's a rectangle. He's a phone booth. It's just... You talk about getting into a phone booth with someone. He is the phone booth that you get into. 8.72 strikes landed a minute. That is Tom Asper on the other side, 7.65.

Don't want to jinx nothing. Tom Aspinall, 100% take down accuracy. It's like Tom Aspinall's stat page is absolutely insane. 100% takedown accuracy, 100% takedown defense, lands almost four takedowns per 15 minutes, 7.65 strikes landed per minute, 66% striking accuracy. Two submissions per 15 minutes. Dude, it's just...

Only takes 2.9 coming back with 65% striking defense. It's like his stat page is like the holy grail of stat pages. And also, I know he's 13 and 3. One loss was from illegal 12 to 6 elbows and the second loss was an injury against Curtis Blades in the first 15 seconds. I actually saw a couple of people this week being like, I know it ended early, but like it felt like Curtis Blades was landing in that one. It's just like, dude, we saw it for 10 seconds. Like what are you talking about? It really felt like that's quite, that's quite big.

I respect that take. It's just like, dude, I can't tell if you're trolling right now. We saw 10 seconds of the fight. I think that that has to be a troll. And it's a damn good one. He was landing at the beginning. He landed four significant strikes, by the way. So if he was landing...

He's landing. Only four of ten. He was landing, though. I felt like he was getting... 40% clip. People using that reasoning for betting on Sergey Pavlovich. Heard's landing that one. So, yeah, I mean, it's similar to the main event.

Sorry, we're not of a... a ton of help on this one. No one can be. If anyone is telling you that they have rock solid confidence, they're a liar. We just haven't seen these dudes fight enough because they just run over people. They run over people. They're coming in on like 15 days notice or whatever it is. Running over people, the variance when it comes to this fight, like the amount of outcomes

that are possible, the amount of ways that this fight can get finished. Like, I just, I have no idea what's going to happen. If you're confident and your bet wins, I'm sure you will take a victory lap. But, yeah, I don't know. There is actually no outcome that would surprise me in this fight. Like, none whatsoever. Storgia Pavlovich taking Tom Aspinol's back and rear naked choking him, I would be like, what the fuck is going on?

I'd be like, that's odd, but yeah, I just haven't seen him do anything. So sure, why not? Like, who, he trains an ATT. Yeah, yeah. He knows what he's doing, like, whatever. So speaking of the sub-prop, I took another little flyer. Took another little flyer. So, like, don't hate me.

I have alluded to it several times throughout this breakdown. I think it would be very wise for Tom Aspenall to go for the takedowns and try and get this thing to the mat. If it gets to the mat, I mean, it's his world and I really think he's going to be able to work well. He's got two submission wins in the UFC. Like, it's not like he's exclusively knocking people out. I know he has four knockouts, but he does have two submission wins. And I want to say two of his last four wins come by way of submission. Feel like that's the best path to get it to the ground.

Also, I mean, if you look at his fights, like he, I don't think he's ever seen a third round, Tom Aspinall. Like he is just like as chaotic as Sergey Pavlovich is, he's been to three decisions. Tom Aspinall doesn't do that. He's just like, well, let's get in and let's get out, man. Get her good cop, baby. So I took Tom Aspinall by sub round one or round two. plus 5,500. Oh, just a little...

Plus 5,500? Sorry, I'm so sorry. Plus 550. Oh, I was going to say, plus 5,500. I'm absolutely betting that. That was bad on my part. Sorry. Sorry, everyone.

Sorry about that. Quiet on the set. Plus 550. Just a little dart. Just a little, you know... That's still a fun little dart. Throw it out there. Just a little throw it out there.

Maybe a little head and arm, something. I mean, we, like, you never know. Straight arm bar. Straight arm bar. You straight arm bar, Sergey Pavlovich's gigantic freaking arms. That's going to be impressive. A little heel hook. He's got a couple of heels on his resume.

That's how it would be. I have desperately, desperately been looking for someone to hit the scissor, the scissor heel hook, like Anderson Silva style. Oh, my God. That would be the chef's kiss. If Tom, I'll say this right now. One, I already have Tom Aspinall is my number one heavyweight in the long. world because we're not allowed to rank frances and ghanu which is specifically why this happened but

the tom aspinall comes out here and he hits you know the the the rio chanan flying scissor heel hook to win i i might get his face tattooed like on my chest let's get a little go go plata going let's get a little twister going maybe a little buggy choke first heavyweight twister who perfect place to do it that's square garden uh uh you So yeah, I'm doing that. I'm on the under one and a half. I got under three and a half as a parlay piece. I mean, that's just, it's about as confident as I can get in a parlay piece.

But obviously, things can go awry as we saw in the main event last week. I was pretty confident that one wasn't going to go to a decision as well. But this one I feel even more confident. I feel. They said on draft kings, they said Jailton, Derek Lewis to not go to a decision minus 10,000. That this is the fight. Like, if this goes to a decision, man.

That would be about the only outcome that could surprise me. If this goes 25 minutes, even then I could still see it if it's a decision where they both just gas out after five minutes and then it feels to hug in. Yeah. I just, I don't know.

I just feels like anywhere in the stay standing, Sergei Pavlovich is just like, I got at least 15 seconds of cardio in me and I'm just unloading it. Dude, at the start of every round, they're just, I got enough to throw three punches. All right. So that is the co-main.

that is the main. I cannot like I can't even express. I can't even express how excited I am for those last two fights. Like I am so pumped it is not even funny. Let's continue. I think this is way better. I didn't care at all about John Jones-Dipe.

I think this is a, I'm a big fan of the change here. Yeah, so when it comes to the actual fights, getting in the Octagon, I'm with you because there's an aura that comes with the John Jones fight card. There's a mystique about it. And just getting to watch him fight is always a pleasure, but yeah, I mean, when it came to the matchup, I thought it was going to steam

all steep. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So boom. And now let's get into the rest of it. Yeah, now we got two coin flip, absolute insaneo matchups. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to Lux beauty and fragrance sets, our special selection has something for every style and price point.

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Rushes too. And hustled all those wishless topping toys. So plush. Our buyers have got you covered. Marshals, we get the deals. You gift the good stuff. Let's keep going, the straw wapout. Jessica Andraj, taking on McKenzie.

Dern. Right now you can get Dern for the shock odds of minus 192, Jess Gondroch coming back at plus 160. How crazy is it that in January, Jessica Androge was coming off like a masterclass of Lauren Murphy three-fight win streak. Like we're talking about her potentially getting a shot at a title. And now here we are just 10 months later. She's trying to stave off a four. straight loss and potentially a fourth straight loss by finish.

She has had an absolutely insane year. Fifth fight. Fifth fight shouldn't be, like they should have had her take some time off. Because, I mean, she's just been getting murked the last few times out. They haven't been competitive. Aaron Blanchfield, I think we all kind of knew that that could happen. The Janja Nama won pretty surprising outcome. And then Tatiana Suarez, again, we all.

sort of knew the circumstances what could happen but like let's let's let this woman get a little bit confidence back to her let her heal up rest up get ready to go because she has just been getting run over and it i mean it makes me really really unsure about what's what's about to happen here connor yeah man i mean half of me wants to be like this is a former ufc champion like she is the queen of chaos uh like her fights are just always insane she has finishing capabilities even at strawwe and it's like maybe this is a y'all must have forgot moment like I still got something left in the tank

but man it's hard for me to have any confidence to lay a bet down on that I mean you know me I am not I am not the biggest McKenzie Dern believer like I have bet against her numerous times on this podcast but like I mean she's coming off an all-time performance by her against Angela Hill

still don't know how that fight didn't get finished but like she looked great and Jessica Androge like It's it's tough to get to the window To bet on drudge here I mean if you're gonna do it it's basically just on the belief of like Regression for for Dern and and and Androge is not who she has been in the last few fights Yeah I'm right there with you man like if which is so insane

Because if you if you booked this fight at the beginning of the year If you booked this fight in January coming off After the Lorne Murphy? She's a favorite. Androja's a favorite. She's a massive favorite. Like a massive favorite. And I would have confidence in betting her as such.

And then she goes out here and, you know, she gets dummied three fights in a row. And I'm like, why are you fighting again this year? What the hell's happening? Like, particularly the way you have been losing. I mean, sure, the Yon fight happened. But Tatiana Suarez and Aaron Blanchfield just sort of took you down and just big sistered you. And we do know that that's something. Kinsey Dern absolutely has in the tool belt.

It's so odd the swings in this sport and how quickly they happen. Dude, it moves so fast. Someone posted a picture of, it was like a happy New Year's post by some MMA account going into 2022, and it was all the champs. And the only person that still has their belt is Volcanowski. And he's lost twice as year, too, which is just wild. It's crazy. the way this sport moves.

So yeah, I mean, I don't know about a side. I'm not playing McKenzie Dern at these odds. No chance. We have talked several times. I mean, I played Marina Rodriguez against her. I played Tisha Torres, thought we could have gotten that one, played Janja Nahn, didn't play Angela Hill, but like I have been notorious going against McKenzie Dernsey-Durna chalk odds.

I'm not going to jump on now. What I am going to do is play the end two and a half. Descan Drage is my female, Charles Oliveira. It's perfect that they're both hail from Brazil, but I mean, just the queen of chaos. Ten of her last 12, under the two and a half, eight of those ending in the first round. I mean, she just comes in and makes the fight chaotic, whether she's getting the finish or she's getting finished. And I think McKenzie Dern, while she's been to decisions, and while sometimes I feel like people get carried away too much with like how insane her submissions are, She obviously has those skills and she can finish fights.

And like you said, Blanchfield, Santos, got the takedown and just big sister there. If McKenzie Dern, while her takedown accuracy is like 9% or whatever it is, 12%. If she can get that takedown, I really think it can be a wrap. I think it can be curtains. And then if it goes south for Dern, I mean, Androge does have that finishing ability. So I see an Androche fight at playing under. Don't hate it. I'm just concerned about it

just because like, if a Dodge comes in and is chaotic, I think then that's going to be great. If she comes in and just is like, I'm going to do the Lauren Murphy thing where all I do is stuff takedowns and just club you in the face for 15 minutes. Yeah.

I think that that's particularly because Darren is, darn's probably going to be tough if nothing else. Oh, for sure. She's real durable. So I don't know. Like, I kind of want to force myself to bed and Josh here, but like you said,

it's just tough to walk up to the window and lay the scratch down, you know? Yeah, I mean, you could make the argument of like, just here to get some cash. Like, just like fifth fight this year? Like, she's not taking a run at the title seriously at this point. No, she's not. You'd have to step forward.

Right. She's already got, like you. Don't get it away from her. Got it. She's always a champ forever. What's what I'm saying? But Dern, Dern's inability to actually take people down is. Oh, God.

Because, like, if she just can't, she's a willing striker, but she's not a good one. Yeah. She's just going to. Which is weird because she, like, blasted Angela Hill several times. Maybe she's getting better. Maybe she's getting better. I think the absolute correct decision here is to just not expose myself at all. That's a smart move.

And I'm hopeful that I will stick to that, but I'm, look, if this gets up to plus 200 on Jessica Androge somehow, then I'm going to have to. I saw something. I think it was Jess Conradge. Like, I know it's a long shot, but Androge by submission is plus 2,500. Yeah, I mean, long shot for a reason, but. That's seen worse. Club and subs are not the same as submissions, you know?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, let's keep it rolling to the next fight on the main card, I mean. Speaking of chaos, merchants. You want bangers. We got bangers. It's a terrific main card. Terrific. Matt Favola taken on Benoit, St. Deney.

And right now you can have Benoit for the favorite price, minus 230 for Vola plus 190. Yeah, I mean, in my opinion, this is just going to be a war. I think they're just going to come to the center of the octagon and they're just going to chuck them and someone's going to go down. I mean, I know Frivola in the past has wrestled. I know we've seen Benoit use the grappling in several of his fights, but Friola, a little stat for you here. First six UFC fights, he attempted 32 takedowns, 32 takedowns.

In his last four, he has attempted one takedown. I just, I mean, he's changed his game, and you have to recognize it. He has become the guy that comes in here to get in. war and to hopefully come out the victor with a with a knockout victory i mean it's been working for him he's more popular than he's ever been uh he's bigger on social he's bigger on everything i mean his style of fighting attracts fans and i think he recognizes that and what better dance partner to have than benoit saint-dine i mean tough as nails down for a scrap has never won by a decision

I mean, the only time he's been to a decision was that absolute bludgeoning by Aleschi dos Santos. So, like, I just think this is just going to be just an absolute banger. I don't see much downtime for these guys. For Vola in NYC, fighting in front of the home crowd, MSG, cue the trumpets. I think we're going to war here. Absolutely. I mean, this fight's just going to be awesome. I love BSD for VOLA.

on a real good run. I think BSD's going to win this fight. I think he is better, but I think these odds are just about spot on, right? Like 70% win probability, basically, which feels pretty close to right, particularly with Favola getting the home crowd, you know,

getting the New York, New York stand up repin, Sarah Longo, like it's... Shout out. And he's on just a heck of a run. So I'm passing on a bet here, mainly because I don't need any juice to make this, You know, the action is the juice here, Connor.

Yes, yes, I'm with you. I mean, one thing I will say about the side, I do tend to agree with you that I think BSD's going to win, but it won't shock me if Frivolta does. I mean, he just keeps surprising people. The only thing is that, as I mentioned, the Zalescu-Santos fight, like, there is no quit in BSD. There is no, like, putting this man out.

Like, he, the fight should have been called on several, several occasions, but he hung in there. Whereas for Volo, we have seen him knocked out. Marco Reyes, Marco Polo Reyes, Terrence McKinney. We have seen him put out. So, like, there's a world where, like, if they just come in here and they're just chalking them

and someone falls, like, there's a lot of volatility when it comes to this one. I am playing the under and a parley, the under two and a half. Under one and a half, kind of like, I wasn't so sure on, especially playing it at chalk odds, but for Vola, four straight fights ending in the first round, BSD, 10 of his 11.

have not seen a third round. So that's kind of my action. Chearing for war. Cheering for finishes, violence. It was a good parlay piece. I think we're going to get it. Minus 300, something like that? Minus 340.

Yeah. Yeah. Good parley piece. Not bad. Not bad. So yeah. That is that. Cannot wait for that one.

I mean, they stacked them up as you get later into this card. Like maybe not like when it comes to the more casual fans, the biggest name value, but you're going to have. good time watching these fights. Oh yeah. I mean, this will have a pretty clear divergence between, you know, name value versus the hardcore fan value. But man, if you're a tune and you're, you're getting your money's worth for sure. Oh, absolutely. Let's keep it rolling to the last fight on the main car, featherweight bow. Pat Sabatini, our boy. Our boy. Our boy. Pat Sabo. Love Patty Sabbs. Philly cheese steaks all around, baby.

taking on Diego Lopez right now. You're going to have sabs for minus 120 Lopez coming back at plus 100. How are we feeling on this one, man? I mean, Diego Lopez, fan favorite. People love them. People do love them. I keep getting, I do a mailbag column for M.A.fine.com terrific website every week. And I continue to get the same dude asking week after week is Diego Lopez the best player coach in MMA.

I'm unclear why this is such an important topic. We have a guy on the MMA hour that every show spams the chat asking when we're going to get an Iron Turtle interview. I mean, I understand that. Every day, it's just like, where's Wednesday, I didn't Turtle have? Like, during the chill beef, like, I was looking at the chat and, like, there he is. He's just like, hate to change the subject, guys, but when are we getting the Iron Turtle interview? you. I love that. Let's get the Iron Turtle on. That's going to be me. Now there's going to be two people in the chat.

Yes. Spam that shit. Joan Young Park, one day. We'll have them on. 17 and five? 17 and five? I mean, he's... He's seven and one in his last eight. I know. He keeps delivering. It's awesome. Yeah, people seem to love Lopez. You know, I'm a big Pat Zapatini guy. Big Pat Zapatini guy. Even after the Damon Jackson letdown cheese steaks and all. Look, we... I got one bite into my cheesecake before we lost the bet. Yeah, but we were unaware of Damon Jackson's extracurricular circumstances. We never would have made the bet had we known that there were higher powers at work.

Can't blame Pat Sabatini for that one. But Patty Sabbs is just an absolutely terrific grappler. I mean, Lopez is also a very good grappling in his own right. I think the scrambles in this are going to be insane. This fight's going to be really good. I love Sabatini in this spot, though. Minus 110, even money odds. I think he is the superior grappler.

I think he's certainly the superior wrestler. Lopez has not been a terrific defensive wrestler. I think Sabatini has a better gas tank, just a more diverse grappling game. I'm not sure that he's going to be able to get him out of there, just because Lopez is a very good grappling in his own right, but I think he is going to have the positional dominance. He's going to get the better of those exchanges.

and, you know, probably get his hand raised by a decision, but wouldn't shock me if he found something in one of those transitions. Everything you said is true. Yeah. But I'm just trying with the boys. I'm just doing a little vibes bet here. I mean, it feels like the vibes are high. Arnold Diego.

I said, you know what? Why not? I got a plus 122. Shout out to Diego Lopez. I don't have a breakdown for you. Hair's great. Vives are enough, Sam. Run up a little My Chemical Romance.

on the way to the octagon and let's call it a day. Let's go get a dub, dude. We stand opposed, but that's exciting. This has been had too much unanimity here. Yeah, I'll sacrifice a little unski for the vibes on Diego Lopez and the boys. Yeah, I mean, I'll sacrifice one because it'll be cool if he wins. I mean, fan favorite, the guy's on main card at MSG, NYC after, what was it, like seven months ago, he came in on short notice against most of our left.

My jeez. Made himself a fan favorite with that one, though. Sport moves fast. Sport moves fast. Yeah, and then he comes out and gets the first round finish last time out. Everything you said is true, though. It is a tricky matchup. And Pat Sabatini definitely has some benefits, but yeah, vibes, bro.

Let's move to the prelims where we just continue on with the bangers in the flyweight division. Steve Ursaig taking on Alessandro Costa. this was supposed to be Matt Schnell, I think. But the fight got canceled. So Costa steps in on short notice. Right now, Steve Irseg is a minus 192. Alessandro Costa plus 160.

A lot of money coming in on Steve Irsec. Yeah, I think this is going to be a banger, man. I think this is going to be an exciting fight. But I like Steve Erseg here. Costa, as I mentioned, coming in on short notice. but regardless, I feel as if Erseg is the better fighter. It's going to be a bit bigger as well. And I like the durability of Erseg in this one.

Costa finished, knocked out twice. And yeah, I think Erseg, it's got advantages in this one. I think you get to done. I think so. I still just don't know what to make of Erseg. Yeah, obviously he has one fight in the UFC. Yeah, and coming in, he was pretty clear underdog and sort of outperformed expectations.

now he's like a ranked guy in the UFC I just want a little bit more time to digest who RERSEG is particularly, you know, coming in against a replacement in Costa who I don't have a ton more experience with. This to me was one of the more obvious I'm just going to stay away.

The fight should be fun. Love, you know, love the fly weights, but I don't need to get out on this one. So not only am I taking ErSegg, throwing a little flyer on this one. cost two losses by knockout Ursaik doesn't have a ton of chaos on his resume in fact he only has one

but I do feel that he's live to get a knockout here bigger fighter feel he's in more he's gonna be in better shape we saw Amir Al-Bazi put this man out as well who Al-Bazi I feel depends on the grappling more than the punches

plus 600 that's why I took it a little stab at plus 600 man you're you're just stabbing a lot over this card. I have one more. I have one more for you. Okay. Later on, we'll get into that. So yeah, Stevie Eraseg, hopefully he can get it done. Let's keep it rolling. Another

short notice replacement, lightweight bout. Mateus, Rebecca, taking on Roosevelt Roberts, Roberts, back in the promotion after a tough outing on tough. We saw a split decision loss for him that eliminated him from the show. But right now, Rebecca minus 650 Roberts plus 475.

You don't have much to say on this one other than like laying minus 650 on Rebecca when he's going to be seven inches shorter with a seven inch reach disadvantage is not my cup of tea. Probably going to win. I don't disagree. He's probably going to win.

He's 18 and 1. He is very talented. And he has a full camp for this one. But that is a huge size difference. 5-7 to 6-2. is a lot you're getting you're getting into that range

where we've seen a couple times where I have been on the losing side of it several times who did we see it with earlier this year the Brazilian woman who's like five foot flat and she fought the French girl who's like 58

Oh Josian Nunes Yes yes and she like won like a split decision 29 28 or something like Yeah she was a massive Honestly it's actually a very good cop to this.

Yes, a monster favorite. And like she could not. Zerfan. Yes. She like could not get through the reach. She's eight inches shorter. What do we have here? Seven inches shorter.

Like it's like, yeah, that was only a six inch reach advantage. Like it feels like Roosevelt Roberts. He also, Roosevelt Roberts also has pretty good kicks. Like, feels like the whole goal is just like, keep this dude away from me. Like, just stay at rain. Knees and kick.

baby. Yeah, so I mean, like, yeah, Rebecca has advantages, but like that size differential in playing minus 650 and like this is coming in on short notice and Roosevelt Roberts back against the wall

here, man. This is it. This is just about it. I'm with you. I'm just staying away. Just staying away. That's all I think. That's the smart way to approach this.

I think Rebecca is, I mean, just given the price, going to be big parley fodder this week for a lot of folks. Couldn't be me, though. Couldn't be me. I will be. I will be staying away from that.

So let's keep it rolling to our next fight. Strawway, Bout, Tabitha Ritchie, taking on Lupita Godinez. I feel like this, feel like this fight was always meant to be made. I feel like this fight was just always meant to be made. Right now you can get Baby Shark for plus 142

Lupita Godinez coming back at minus 170. Yeah, I mean, played Lupi last time out, and she looked unreal. She looked just like on a whole, another level. She seems to be really coming into her own right now. Like she seems to really be hitting in.

Like, God, I feel like there's been several times where I'm like, this girl might be the best straw weight in the world. And then there's other times where I'm like, what is she doing? So you're kind of risking on what loopie are you going to get. But I'm going to let it ride. I'm just, you know, might as well jump back in. Am I fully trusting her? No.

there's a world where I have to pay for this. But when it comes to this actual matchup, we know that Ritchie depends a lot on the wrestling. Lupi tends to use the wrestling as well. I feel like she can negate the wrestling of Ritchie, and I think she's just going to use the pressure, dictate where the fight goes, and more than likely,

outpoint her on her way to a decision. I am parlaying up the over one and a half. These girls tend to go to decision. I thought about the over one and a half is a parlay piece, but I already have a violence parlay and didn't really have an open end to put that on. The pacifism can't go in the violence.

You can't go in the violence. I kind of feel that. Like, I kind of feel that. Like, I, sometimes I get weird with the way I'm thinking. Like, I'm like, oh, the violence needs to go together. The money lines need to go together. When you should just be taking like your three most confident picks on the car. But yeah, I mean.

Yeah, but that's what good betters do. And as we've said, many times. We are not good better. That's not us, my man. Sometimes, like, when I make the graphics that I post every week, I'm like, man, I need to have like an even number. So, like, it looks all good. Oh, yeah. I'll just force a bet.

I'll just be like, I need to have the even number. I do that all the time. She's like, I'd like to get this a little bit. A little thing. That might be how Diego Lopez came to be. A little how the sausage is made. Yeah, a little, damn, I can use eight. I can't use eight because I can't do the four on one and then three on the next.

You know, it needs it to be aesthetically pleasing. It's all about the aesthetics, but Diego Lopez sounds cool. Diego Lopez sounds cool. Lupi, I think she's going to win because I think you pointed out the wrestling. I think she's just a better defensive wrestler than Ritchie as an offensive wrestler.

And if Ritchie's left striking, I think Lupy's got the volume, got the ferocity there. Yeah, if Lupy, if this turns into like because it's essentially a wrestler versus a wrestler and it just turns into that 15-minute striking affair and Lupy doesn't win, then it's definitely one of those performances.

is where you're like, what is she doing? What happened here? What happened to like the insane six punch combo into the lifting your opponent over your head and dumping them down and then finishing them that we saw last fight? But yeah, again, I've got a couple of other bets coming up and I was like, I'll just pass.

I'm pretty interested in watching this fight. I don't need to add a little extra to make me care. I'm just going to pass on this one. Smart man, smart man. Let's keep it rolling. to another... Not smart, because I bets are much stupider fights in this.

Here we go. I got a couple more bets that are fairly stupid. I still got four more bets to get into. Lightweight bout. Nazim Sadikov, New York's own,

taking on Slava Claus Vyashlav Borshev. A lot of Vs in there. Are you a Slava Claus guy? I can't remember. Not like a... I don't identify as a Slava Claus guy.

I enjoy his fights when there's no wrestling. The wrestling is not his friend. And he recognizes that. That's the funniest part is he. He's just like, yeah, wrestling is my kryptonite, please. Don't wrestle. Don't take me down.

If you try to take me down, you're going to succeed. Don't do that. Yeah, Sadie Kopp minus 130, Borshep plus 110. So, yeah, like this is kind of an interesting matchup. Like, we just saw Nazim last time out get the submission win over Terence McKinney, but he's not really like a leans on takedown guy. Like he has one takedown in the UFC, and he racked up 19 seconds of control time in this fight.

Like he's not going to be just like lay and pray. Maybe he will be for this fight because he recognizes the advantages that he has. But I mean, if this thing stays standing, like, I feel like if anyone stays standing with Slava Clause, like it's dangerous. Risky proposition. Risky proposition. That's a good way to put it. I am on two bets in this one.

I'm on the under two and a half because I do think if it stays standing, Slava Claus is probably going to catch him at some point. But I mean, Nazim is no stranger to have finished himself. Nine of his, or eight of his nine wins. He won by finish, or nine of his ten fights have ended via finish. So, I mean, it's not like this guy is a decision maker. And then if it stays standing, I really favor Slava to find the knockout. I mean, he had any time it stays standing, he is for. found the knockout in his UFC career.

So that's my last little flyer. Slava, KO, plus 250. I'm back into Zeme here, just because I think Slava has such a clear path to losing. There's the, oh yeah, he's got a path to victory.

Well, Slava has a path to losing. To defeat. And Nazeem's pretty well-rounded, you know, like he's, you go outside of his UFC career. He, you know,

he's not, He has the ability to take fights to the ground to win with his grappling. I think the path of least resistance is so obvious here. I think Slava is advantaged on the feet, but I don't think Nazim is a sitting duck there. He can compete. And I think he's just going to, he's just a more well-rounded fighter fighting at home, you know, getting the New York going. I like his chances in this one. Yeah.

I don't mind it. I don't hate it. I think this is going to be a very exciting fight. I will be very disappointed if it's Sadiqav, like, just becoming D1 Nizim here. I'm just, I think there's a chance. Could be a pass. I think this is a real chance. Look, I'm back in the handraise.

You got 10 fights. Get the handraise, bro. That's right. I'm back in the Seralongo boys this week. They can't they know what they're doing. Matt, Sarah, Ray Longo, they know what they're doing. They're going to come out here, take this dude down. Sure do.

Let's get her done. Yeah, they sure do. Let's keep it rolling. To another lightweight bout. Jared Gordon taken on the Olympian, Mark Madsen, right now. Flash, Jared Gordon, have him as a favorite. Minus 192, Mark Madsen coming back, plus 160. Any thoughts on this one?

The Olympian. I mean, we didn't discuss it. Denmark showed out last week. The Brazilian Slayer, Nicholas Dolby, man. Unbelievable win. Any regret, not riding with our boy? So, full disclosure, I have regrets in my heart, but I don't have major regret because I was very busy last week. I had a personal endeavor, and so we recorded early so I could get all this up and done. Totally forgot to put in any bets last.

Wow. You didn't play a single wager. None of the bets that I had lined up to end up making. Wow. Wow. So you line these up and then you place them. Last week, yeah, because we were doing it on a pretty quick turnaround. So I could get it done because it was like, hey, I can't do this stuff or I've got to get it out early. It's going to be off for most of the week.

And I was like looking at it because I didn't have access to all the bets I wanted at the time because not all the bets were available on the books or whatever. Different state. Yeah. Mm-hmm. and then I, Wednesday morning, the bright and early hour of 5 a.m., I was on the road, and I didn't do anything until the main card of that is when I started watching fights. Well, shout out to Dalby. So shout out to Dalby.

I do regret not just riding with him on principle, but ultimately didn't cost me much, so I'm feeling okay, at least in that regard. But never doubt him. Just can never doubt him again. If he's fighting a Brazilian, you can never go against him. Or in Brazil. You're just cooked. Like, he, we can find a path for him to get to the title.

Yes, yes. We should build that. Yeah. Fighting Brazilians. Just fighting Brazilians in Brazil. He fights once every 18 months, but he'll get to the title eventually. He'll get there. Yeah, so my thoughts on this one are, you know, I know we haven't seen Mark Madsen in like a full year.

I'm going to back him. He's so dumb. I'm going to back him. I don't think he's dumb. I mean, listen, these guys are undefeated when it goes to a decision. Jared Gordon, 12 and 0 in decisions. That's a good stat. He's actually 11 and 1, but I'm counting the patty win.

Mark Madsen, 6 and 0 when it goes to a decision. So someone's decision oh must go. Or they just draw and keep it alive. Yeah. Which given how Mark Madsen fights is very viable, that he just eeks out the first two rounds and it's totally gassed. Jared Gordon, 10 hits him in the third.

Oh, that's actually, that's not a bad shout. Both of them also rear naked choked in the third round by Grant Dawson. I mean, a lot of similarity. I did know that

because I wanted to use it as an argument for why I should pick Madsen, except for Madsen actually got finished sooner than Jared Gordon did in the first. But look, I've just never been sold on Jared Gordon. I thought he might be good enough to be Patty Pimble.

I thought he won that fight. but he's just a guy. He's a jag, just another guy, solid guy, he's going to stick around. Madsen, I think, is probably pretty similar, but, you know, Olympic silver medalist placed fifth in the 2012 Olympics. You know, this guy, this guy has higher ceiling, certainly, and I do think that he is going to be able to control Jared Gordon for a lot of this fight.

The gas tank is the big concern. Can he build up a big enough lead, not kind of, crap it away down the stretch. Honestly, what is the odds on a draw here? Plus 6,600, I see. That probably can't actually be real, but... Probably is, dude, draws don't happen that often. Plus 6,600 for a draw.

Maybe I'll take a flyer on that. Yeah, I'm looking at it right now. Fight ends in a draw plus 6,600. But Madsen at underdog odds, I just sort of like it here. I think he's going to do enough. I think he's just got more potential. and Jared Gordon, so I'm taking the shot on him. I actually took Flash.

I took my guy Flash in this one. Again, we stand opposed. Yeah, I love it. I love it. I don't trust the gas tank of Mark Madsen. If he can't get the takedowns, then I think this will be a one-sided affair. I mean, I know, obviously, the Olympian 11 years ago.

He's 39 at this point. We haven't seen him in a minute. And I can't imagine the cardio is getting that much better. And we know that Jared Gordon is going to go for the full 15 minutes. I mean, 12 and 0. when it comes to decisions. I know Mark Madsen's 6-0, but, you know, let me play my narratives here. The volume, like, really, I do believe if he's not getting the takedown to the volume is going to be able to outpoint him to a decision.

I was up on Sunday morning, and as soon as these props dropped, the over two and a half was minus 180, typing in like a nuke on it. I'm like, that's going to go to a decision. typing in a nuke on it and when I like hit place bet it like readjusted and it was like the odds are now minus 300

except changes I'm like no not the same almost got a nuke in on some absolutely delicious odds for the over two and a half but wasn't meant to be so yeah I'm just on Gordon here

nothing crazy nothing huge but yeah should should be a fun thing. Maybe, might be a fun fun. You could pacifist, this is a good solid pacifist parley piece. Over one and a half would be a nice, tasty one.

It's a good. If you're trying to put together pacifism parlay, this one right here is prime real estate. Yeah, like the one worry with Jared Gordon like for me in this matchup is well, A, like just getting controlled the entire time, but B, like sometimes

his chin isn't the best, but Mark Madsen not like the biggest, you know, he's no, Sergey Palovich. Yeah, he's not Dan Henderson. Yeah. It's not what he's doing. He's not that kind of an Olympic, you know, wrestler. Yeah.

All right. So that's that. That's Jerry Gordon. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions.

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Instacard. Groceries that over-deliver. Service fees exclusions and terms apply. And Mark Manson, we'll keep it rolling. here to a bansom weight bow, Mr. Perfect, Kyeongho Kang taken on sexy maxi. John Castaneda, I mean, you got Mr. Perfect going against sexy maxi. This is the fight to watch.

This is the fight to see. Right now you can get John Castaneda minus 142. Kyeongho Kang plus 120. Kang quietly 8 and 2 in his last 10 in the UFC. Good form. I mean, aging, but doing it well. When it comes to the fight itself, I don't have a ton of,

a ton of thoughts. Like, King usually fights super close to his opposition. Four splits in the UFC for our man. And, like, he, like, John Castaneda has dropped his last four opponents, but he only knocked one of them out. It's kind of the Matt Simulzberger effect.

Like, is getting, is dropping his opponents, but, like, not finishing them, which when it happens enough, you're like, okay, like, why is this how do you keep dropping your opponents but not finishing them? And Kengo Keng has been knocked out one time and it

happened in 2008. So I kind of feel like this is just going to be a 15 minute fight that both guys has some decent moments and like we're talking really close when it comes to the scorecards. Would a split surprise me? Absolutely not. I agree. To me

this is a doggard pass. I kind of do like Kang in the spot, but I just can't have a ton of confidence and you're not getting like a huge price there it's pretty close to even odd so so we just talked about a draw being plus 6600 like I was throwing out the idea of split when did splits become like plus 350

they I swear they used to be like plus a thousand I think I have noticed this as well I think Vegas is really just actively not trying to take action on split decisions anymore because particularly on guys like this who have every time I look at a split it's a situation like this of like oh there's you know angela hills like five splities on her resume like let's take a look like maybe we can get a good price and it's like yeah plus 400 and like you're just telling me not to bet this Vegas like you're

just been like no we don't we don't want your action here yeah like what what is the calculation to that like the implied odds of like this is plus 350 to go to a split decision which is 50 implied odds is like 20%. I mean like that's, come on. Like we're talking about, it's obviously insane. 22%. Yeah.

Like it's just like, yeah, we recognize it's lower than that. But like plus 350 is just not even worth it. No, it's just not. That's, you know, they're not trying to draw you in here. What's the by split decision on like the main event or hell the co-main event? Pavlo Chaston is probably like a plus a billion. Let's see. I mean, I would hope it's a, I would hope it's ridiculous.

plus 150 no I'm just kidding it's not to be like what the shit fight goes to a split decision is I'm not seeing just the normal split oh yes fight goes to a split decision plus 1,500

again that's still like in that fight you have to get it to a fucking decision first and then you have to get it to split that's ridiculous that's like a 1500 is like 5%

fight goes to a decision is plus 1,000 Yeah. So you're not getting a fight goes two decisions plus 1,000. Yeah. Okay. So you're getting like three extra percentage points. Yeah.

For it to be a split. Like, come on, man. That's insane. Come on, dude. That's ridiculous. So yeah, I mean, I don't have a bet, but it's probably going to be a plus fight. I'm not going to laugh. It feels like the energy was cranked up for like the first seven fights we talked about.

Now it's kind of like, yeah, this is weird. This is a build, right? This is a card that built. Each of these fights are pretty interesting in one way or another, but it's just hard to care about some of these. Right, which is great, though. That's how a card should be built. Like, you should be casually watching at 6 o'clock and, like, you're paying attention,

but you're not, like, super locked in. And then, like, as it cranks up, like, as you're getting to, like, two fights away from the main card, you're like, all right, let's lock in. If you're rocking a two TV setup, you definitely got the UFC on the big screen. now. You know we got to have the two TV set up on Saturday, Connor.

I mean, yeah, big one, big one. Number nine, Ole Miss, traveling to Athens, Georgia. That one is going to get a night game.

Night game between the hedges? Yeah, it's going to need to be, it's going to need to be rowdy in there because we need a dub. We need a dub bad. We need to get through these next two games and then we're playoff bound.

That's all I can say. We still got a couple more fights to get into here. So let's get into the next up. Absolutely no respect for Georgia Tech and I love it. Yeah. My brother went to Georgia Tech, fuck Georgia Tech. Men's flyweight bout, Joshua Van, taking on Kevin Borjas right now.

You can get banned. Big favorite in this one, minus 225. Connor, we've got breaking news. It's not going to change anything. Break it. Per Nolan King on Twitter. Good guy. John Castaneda, Kyeongho Kong is a 138-pound catchweight bout.

Wow. So, I don't know if that changes your calculus. I've now just max bet Kyeong-Hokong. We added three pounds to each of them. So there you go. Breaking news. Josh Van minus 225, Kevin Borjas,

plus 185. This should be a fun fight, dude. These guys fight aggressively. Josh Van, very impressive on his debut against Zalgus. Don't have a side. This fight almost falls under

8-1, 9-1. The dicing is. of your 10-fight rule. You know what I did? I hope you did the same thing I did here. Oh, tell me, we're back in the low. You're about to talk dirty to me? Fly right under?

I took the under two nights. Yes, sir! Let's go! We're back! We're back. Yeah, I mean, listen, you're going to sit here and be like, someone's going to out there listening, driving in their car, and they're just like, but they both went to a decision last time out.

Guess what? That was their first decision of their careers before that. Also, Van was against Zalgus who we know. Decision machine. That guy. He hates unders. He is the alpha and the omega when it comes to going to decisions.

Yeah, you could be like, yeah, maybe it's just adjusting to the rising level of competition. Nope. I say it was a fluke and we're regressing back to the average of always having finishes. Van had never even seen a third round before that fight was Zalges. He wanted to see what it was like. He was like, let's just see what

it's like just the one time. Then we'll go back to try it off for size you know yes borhoss one third round before his last fight uh yeah let's get some action early on let's cash a flywood under let's set the tone for the evening this is my first bed of the night let's just set the tone for a big evening uh so yes josh fan kevin boros under two and a half feels good feels good i love that we're here when i was when i was looking at this card i was like maybe maybe this is a week we just bring back flyweight under and i was like i don't know how i feel about Steve Versaig versus Alessandro Costa. That wasn't the one. That wasn't the one.

That one could easily go to a decision. I know I'm playing the K.O. Prop there. That could easily go to a decision. Coaster's short notice. I was don't know. And then I was like, Kevin Borra, this dude. I mean, this is the one, man. I mean. Two guys who are going to get after it. I'm looking out on a beautiful November day here in New York City. We're quickly approaching Thanksgiving. That feeling you get around Thanksgiving when you show up on either the Tuesday, the Wednesday, back in your hometown,

You're seeing old friends. You know, maybe you do the go out on Wednesday and then you wake up hungover on Thanksgiving and then you just eat all day. And it's just good camaraderie. You're seeing family. You're seeing friends. It's just an amazing day. That's how I feel right now that we're both playing the flyweight under to start.

I'm so happy for us. So my first bed of the evening as well, we're both starting the night off with this one. Set the tone. We're going to set it. Somebody better set it. Let's go. Let's set it. Because if this loses, the tone will be set in the opposite.

opposite direction. I need the tone to be set in the proper direction here. Tones will be set with this fight. Hopefully the tones. The vibes are good. But what a way to kick off the evening. I mean, you... Josh Van, Kevin Borjas, I say it from time to time in the sport. There are potentials not for the whole community of MMA fandom, but for typically me personally, guys have opportunities to become heroes, to become these figures bigger than life in my eyes. Joshua Van and Kevin Borhaus can do that by setting the tone with a flywood under. They can be heroes just for one day. That's all we need for them.

Let's go. Then no one can ever take it away from him. You were a hero that night. At November night in Madison Square Garden, Joshua Van and Kevin Borjas played heroes. Let's get into it. Last fight of the night. Featherway bowed, Dennis Bazooka.

That's just what I'm rolling with. I mean, we talked about this last time. That's the only name I accept is Bazook. And if his nickname isn't Bazooka, then like... No, it's the Great. Yeah, the Great. Oh, my God. I forgot about this.

He, who did he fight? It was the Great versus, uh, oh, no, it was the sniper. Sean Woodson. I thought I, I, the sniper. We had a sniper. It was the Bazooka versus the sniper. Yes, yes, yes, yes. Now I'm remembering.

Yeah, I got nothing here. I mean, I don't really want to play Jamal Emers as a big favorite. Actually, I'm not going to play Jamal Emerson as a big favorite. And then, And that's Mark. Bazooka, I'm just passing one. So that's that. Bazooka's the only Serolongo guy I'm not going to support because he doesn't go by a

bazooka. If he, if he was in his bazoo-Bizuga-Bizu-Jew, I bet her him every time. Max-Bet. Every time, just shoving, relentlessly, recklessly. The great, nope. Like, you don't deserve my betting support if you, if you're this bad at your nickname. Yeah.

So, so we're at. 100%. 100%. So that's UFC 295. I have boots. I don't know if y'all can hear that. That is boots. Not even figuratively, but literally,

on the ground in New York City. Saturday night, Madison Square Garden, the city comes alive for the UFC. Cannot wait for it. I mean, those last seven fights? It's going to be quite electric. The last six fights, the last six fights, Oh, Connor.

We've got some even more breaking news. Wow. Wow. Are we becoming a news breaking pod as people hear this a day later? This is per UFC on Twitter. February 18th, that is your official date. Yes, Los Angeles. Certified official.

Is it Los Angeles? Let me confirm that we have a location. I don't see a location. I just see the date. February 18th for UFC 298. Wow. Still TBD on location. Ilya posted a promo for it.

Sick promo. I mean, if you haven't seen it, go to his social pages and watch it. It is so sick, professionally made, calling it the 15th rows for Volcanovsky. I mean, the guy just gets it. But at the end of the video, he does say Los Angeles. Yeah, I saw that, and I think that that's correct, but still unconfirmed. Sick. Love that fight.

Absolutely love that fight. He loved both those guys. Two favorite. I got a top three favorite. favorite fighters and featherweight. Obviously, Volk, obviously Max Holloway and I don't know who to cheer for. I mean, it's been so good to me. Obviously, I know who you're cheering for.

I know who you're cheering for in that one. Yeah, we have a good run-up to UFC 300 to start the year. I have to come out, get ahead of this, and just admit it so everyone can wait on pins and needles with me. The first weekend of August is right around the range of where UFC 300 is going to be happening, right? Of August? I'm sorry, of April. I was going to say August is not correct at all. Yes, I'm sorry. First weekend of April is like right around that range of where UFC 300 is going to be happening. I mean, I'll have March madness going. That'll be a big week.

Final four weekend. Final four weekend. The Masters just, U.S.C. 300 is going to be a big sporting week, you know, weekends. Yeah, I'm praying that they don't choose that April 6th weekend, that first weekend in April. What do you got going on? Yeah, I got quite a bit. So on Thursday, I will be traveling down to Atlanta, Georgia. The A. On Friday, I will not only be attending a wedding, I will be in a wedding as a groomsman. And then I will go to sleep.

I will wake up on Saturday. And then I will be attending another wedding. Back to back. In the wedding as a groomsman, two of my very best friends in the world are getting married on the same weekend in the same city. Are they friends with each other? They know each other. They're not really like, like they wouldn't invite each other to you. wasn't like a planned thing from no no no no no so like this is like ufc 300 would

potentially be the biggest day uh for my working life since i started in this job but like this is there there is no day big enough for me to miss this weekend like i just can't miss it so like we're we're praying to everything holly that it's not that first week in of april i don't know what i'm going to do so you got a friday into saturday wedding and i'm in Both of them. And did they, did you inform either of them that the other was happening? Did this just naturally manifest or were they like, we're both going to do Saturday weddings? Because Friday wedding maybe not the most common, you know?

If I'm going to be brutally honest, I love Friday weddings. I've been to one in my life waking up on Saturday after a wedding and like going home and being like, oh, it's Saturday. I can just chill. I don't have to worry about going home or anything. And typically living up here, I have to travel to weddings. not many people getting married in New York. So, yeah, no, it was complete coincidence.

I got the save the dates, and I was so worried because one friend was like, yeah, I'm getting married the first weekend of April. One of the saved the date showed up called the other one. I'm just like, dude, when is your wedding? Because he had already asked me to be a groomson. Both of them had already asked me to be a groomson. And he's just like, it's April 5th, which is the Friday. And I'm just like, April 5th, Friday, you're getting married on a Friday.

and he's just like, yeah. That's big time. My heart, like, we've already, we've already dodged that bullet. Now, can we dodge the bullet of UFC 300? Because, like, the second that, like, I put two and two together, I was just like, that's right in that USC 300 range. That would have been a tough beat for you. It would be like, you got to pick one.

Yeah, that would have, I don't know what I would have done then. Both had already asked me. I had said yes to both, both of them. One I've known, like, my whole life, but then the other I lived with for two years in college. So like, good friends with both of them. Very good friends with both of them. I'm glad we skirted that for you. Scurted one.

Now the second big hurdle. We'll see about 300. I'm on Pennsylvania. I mean, it's Friday. You can't partake too much Friday because you have the Saturday business. Saturday business. And then I can fly home on fucking Sunday. You can always fly home hungover.

I'm not a big, I have this come out. I'm not a big fly hungover guy. It's, I mean, it's miserable. I mean, dude, you get up in the air and you're, like, kind of jittery and a little bit nauseous, and you're just like, I hate my life. Why do it? It's miserable, but, you know, sometimes you get through it. You get through it. All right.

That's for another day. Please, God. Like, just give me, like, last week in March. One time, dealer. Give me second week of April. Who wants to conflict with the final four? Come on. So, let me take a look here.

I think. you've got a decent shot at dodging here. Per my sources, historically, they dodge Final Four weekend. Yeah, and March, we're doing March 9th, so it could be the 6th, but I think it's going to be more likely that you get the 13th for 300. Need it. A huge relief, a huge wave of relief will wash over me if they announce that, because, man, like, what was the Saturday night?

I'm pulling for you, bud. I'm gonna be standing up there with my phone in my hair and just like one. McGregor fighting. It's definitely going to be Connor. So like, yeah. Connor McGregor fighting him and I'm in a fucking wedding. Are you kidding me? Sweet tough.

I'm pulling for you. I think we're going to dodge it. I think you're going to avoid it. Fingers crossed, boys. Fingers crossed. UFC 295 though. Main event absolutely sick. Co-mate event absolutely sick.

Whole main card stacked to the gills. New York. York back next week with a bullshit apex card see you then love y'all