MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Alex Pereira knockout Magomed Ankalaev and move up to heavyweight after UFC 313?

Episode Date: March 5, 2025

Alex Pereira is back at it again. This Saturday, Pereira puts his light heavyweight title on the line for the fourth time when he takes on Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 313 in Las Vegas. On top of that, Justin Gaethje runs things back with Rafael Fiziev in an electric co-main event, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined once again by Morning Kombat’s Long Island Luke to dive into all their favorite bets for UFC 313. Topics discussed include who will leave the main event as champion, whether this is Pereira’s final fight at 205 pounds if Gaethje has enough juice left to beat Fiziev again, who wins in a battle of The Hulk vs. Superman, Leg 12 of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 119 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What's up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard, and it is finally a good one. Ladies and gentlemen, they are frankly few and far between.

Not that the show is not good. Obviously, this show is elite every week. But the events we talk about are various levels of good, depending on the events you're getting to look at. In the last couple of weeks, sad to say, UFC Seattle obviously looked good. good, and then a whole bunch of things happened, and it sort of fell apart. And then we went back to the world's mightiest apex this past Saturday. No longer the world's most famous, it is the mightiest.

If you listen to the TKO call about the apex, you'll understand that reference. But this week, ladies and gentlemen, we head back to Las Vegas for the T-Mobile Arena and a pay-per-view event, UFC 313, Alex Beheada, taking on Magamette Ankleev. It is a very good card. But before we get into this, that card. Let me introduce the guest this week. And we also got to talk a little bit, at least a little bit about last week because some things happened. But most importantly, joining me on the journey today. You know him, you love him. Now a, this is second time on the show, sure to be a frequent

contributor of it. You know him from such esteemed channels as Main Card Minute. And of course, the wonderful morning combat. Long Island, Luke, how we doing, buddy? Jed, good to be back, man. Thank you for having me. Appreciate it. Good. back on the first one? Looking forward to this one. The first one was 312. Is that right? Correct.

Your previous pay-per-view effort, which was also a terrible card. I'm your go-to pay-per-view guy. There you go. You know, you need big man. You are the Alex Pahetta of No Bet's part at this point. We got a pay-per-view. Let's just bring in Luke. Luke, let's talk very briefly about the APEC show this past week,

mainly because for the first time and what feels like the whole year of 2020, that's not quite true. I actually finally won money. Wow. It has been a disastrous 2025 for me for all things outside of the climb. Climb going strong, super proud of it. I am down, or I was heading into last weekend down 10 units overall, which isn't where you want to be. It's not like an insurmountable hole, but I just kept taking three unit losses, two unit losses,

finally get on board with the W. a big one, like two-ish units. So climbing out of the hole, still at an eight-unit deficit for the year. But finally getting a victory last week was, it was good to get some wins under the belt. Luke, how did you feel about Vegas 103? How did you do at Vegas 103? You had a lot of parlays out.

You put a lot of fun gimmick parlays out. You missed what would have been both a successful gimmick parlay and the gimmick parlay that I would have offered if I was doing one last week. How did you do, though? Okay, well, first off, the gimmick parles I just put out there to put out there if anyone wants to take. I normally don't take those. But funny enough, this week, four of those hit. So I think if you took all of them, you would have ended up plus money. Personally, I ended up how you've been earlier this year. I've been having a good year, decent year, had a really bad week last week, lost three units. I was on a Sue Almombayev. I had the samecies. I had the over one in a hand.

in Danny Barlow, Sam Patterson. That didn't hit. That ruined one of my parleyes. And I had Esteban Riebevich, who I believe won that fight and would have cashed my parlay, but obviously judges gave it to Nassarat and that blew it. I do also think Rebovich won that fight. I mean, competitive bout, but I think that that is a little bit of a tough loss for you there. I basically hit all my bets, but for a small underdog play on Andrea Lee. felt bad about that almost immediately. I was just like, she's bad, but like, she's not that bad. Actually, she is that bad.

That was very dumb. And I was also on Osama Bayev. And that also felt bad about that immediately. So at least my losing bets, I knew instantaneously that things were going, going awry for them. And the rest of them, you know, took it home. Should have done the gimmick parlay I would have been, would have been the Portugal parlay of Pinto and Cop. And I was like, I'm betting on Amabay. buy-off so I can't do this and obviously it would have hit and I feel like a dumbass now because

gimmick parlays have been like half my issue. I've missed every gimmick parley this year. I won't stop shooting them but I can't hit them to save my life. So unfortunately don't even have a gimmick parlay this week because look this is an interesting card. Certainly a better card than we've been getting the last few weeks. You know, I mean February was all bad cards basically like the Saudi card was okay. 312 was okay. The other cards are pretty bad. And this is, so this is certainly a step up.

Some changes have occurred to it as well. Of course, we know that Justin Gichi is no longer fighting Dan Hooker. We'll talk about his new old opponent soon. But before we dive into the particulars, we were talking a bit off air. For me, this is a tough one because I don't feel really confident in a lot of stuff happen. Some pretty tightly lined fights, some really big underdogs that seem maybe that they shouldn't be as big a dog or as big a favorite as going. How are you feeling holistically about 313 before we dive into the specifics? I mean, dude, I say this a lot, but it's one of those cards

where people are going to lose a lot of money or they're going to win a lot of money. The top four fights, as you mentioned, all roughly pickam odds. When I say pick them, I'm talking like plus one 30s, the biggest dog in the top four fights. Some of them are actually a pickum, uh, Baja Monday's Jalen Turner. I don't feel confident in any of those big dogs you're mentioning. I'm assuming you're looking at like Alex Marono, maybe Bobby Green. I can't trust my money with those. But I don't know, dude. Back to gimmick parlays real quick, though, for a second. You said you don't have any this week. I do not have any gimmick. I have a parlay this week. It's not really a gimmick. I mean, we got to go through some of these gimmicks because I feel like I can intrigue you with some of these. How about the Alex

Parley, Marono and Poetan? Not a chance. Not a chance. Okay. Not a chance. How about the Arara parlay, the Bruno Fajara and Alex Pereira parlay? That is certainly a more interesting parlay, but no. That's plus 324. The Santos Parlay, first guy, Jordan Santos and Myron Santos. So that is, like, that's the obvious one that would have jumped out to me to do it. I just don't really want to bet on either of those fights is the actual end.

And we'll get into the specifics. I just don't feel like that would be entirely me just living a gimmick and not at all feeling confident a bet or even being highly researched in either fight. Dude, speaking of living a gimmick, we'll get to it when the fight comes, but I am most certainly living a gimmick on this card. And as always, I got a bet on every fight on this card. That's what I honestly respect the hell out of you about because sometimes it's hard. There's some of these fights where I would just be throwing totally.

little darts on zero level of confidence. And let's start right with the main event because my level of confidence about this main event is rock bottom. I have absolutely no idea what is happening here. I will be frank. In any other situation, I would have put this fight to the chat GPT test. I just said, pick a mods, and I don't really know what's going to happen. I'd go to chat GPT.

I am fundamentally priced into one side of action here. just based on who I am as an individual. But Alex Beheada taking on Magamette Ankleyev in the fourth defense of his UFC light heavyweight title. That will put him in pretty rarefied air. Should he pull it off? Frankly, he's already very rarefied air as a two-division champion, you know, runner up for the fighter of the year in 2024,

coming off a monster 2024, three title defenses in like eight months or whatever the hell it is. The most recent being the Kaleo Roundtree, TKio, in October. Ankleyev, the prince who was promised, the guy who was supposed to be here for as long as I can remember at this point after losing his debut with a literal last second submission, unbeaten since 13 fights in a row, a draw and no contest tucked away in the middle of that run, but the guy who was supposed to be the guy coming off that UD win over Alexander Rockich

back in October in the fight. Pickamods, minus 110 on either side of the, the coin here depending on your book Luke I got a billion thoughts on this fight I don't know where it's going to go my gut though my the vibes

are telling me Magamana and Kalayaev is going to get it done my brain disagrees firmly with that but the vibes are telling me that this is Maghman and Goliath's time who's right who's wrong my gut or my brain so my gut and my brain are the opposite of you my vibes are giving me Poetan, but my brain is giving me Ancolaev. And personally, I am also riding with

Anclyev on this. I did get him at plus 110. All right. I know Poetan opened at like plus 130. I would have hopped all over that. Truth be told. I would have just been like, oh, hell yeah, Poetan, a plus money. I'm on that. By the time I looked at it, he was like minus 130. So I'm riding with Ancolaev. My logic here, this should be Poeton's toughest test in the wrestling department. As long as Ankolive doesn't do what he said and not shoot it. take down like a fucking idiot, then we should be good here. Ancolaev has taken down seven of its 12 UFC opponents, and Poetan's actually been taken down by five different opponents in the UFC.

I don't know if I realized that. So I feel like Uncle I should be able to get him down. Can he keep him down? Can he continue to get him down over five rounds? I don't know. I'm hoping that's the case here. And I already mentioned I would have gladly taken Poetton, but I'm riding with Uncle I of Plus 110.

Let's go. So I'm also an Uncleive at Plus 110. 100 with my money. That is, that bet was just the die was cast. I've been such a big Magerman and Goliath supporter for years that it would feel disingenuous to suddenly back off that corner. Even though, like I said, man, my head is the exact opposite because to me, yes, I think we can all acknowledge Uncle Glyev has a way to win this fight.

I think Alex Perra is a much better defensive wrestler than he gets credit for. I think that really the major concern is Alex Pereira is the best leg kicker in MMA and Magromanic Goliath is really bad at defending leg kicks. Like Jan Belhovic damn near beat him solely off throwing leg kicks and defending some takedowns. And like that's a game plan that Alex Pereer can replicate while also presenting like a much more serious striking threat than Blahovic does. I know that Blahovic has the legendary Polish power branding, but like, It's not real. That is a fiction.

That is a story that was sold to make him seem marketable. It's not like a real thing, whereas Pereira obviously very much has that. And so to me, like, Angola is going to come out and if he doesn't immediately start wrestling, he's just going to get his leg kicked off. And then he won't be able to wrestle. And then he's a sitting duck on the feet, despite the fact that Parer, or that Encliffe is really, really durable. He's only been dropped once in his entire career. Like this is a guy who doesn't just like he doesn't fold under pressure and can punch hard

Pereira can get knocked out like he can compete he can win my head says that this should be an Alex Pereira fight but for two things one very slightly Alex is he's fighting a lot man like he is fighting a lot this will be his fourth fight in in less than 12 months that is an absurd rate of activity basically over the history of this sport if you see people fighting at that rate, they aren't winning them all because it is just really, really difficult to basically constantly be in a training camp, especially at his age. Like he is older. He has a ton of miles on him from kickboxing, et cetera.

I frankly think that part of Kulio Roundtree's success against him was Pereira is just fighting so much this level of activity is unsustainable. And if Kliuio Rountry can have success, I think Mago and I Kaliav can have more success. and the other, just, this is the dumbest reason possible, and I want to get out in front of this guy. All of you should shame me for this, because it is very, very stupid. There's a clip I saw today, and it gave me the ick.

And the clip is Alex Pereira talking to fighters in the gym being like, you know, imparting genuine heartfelt advice about life and about how I'm a winner because I stopped drinking a few years ago. You know, like, championships on, like, I'm already a winner. And that is the dumbest thing. But in my head, I'm like, that's not the mentality I need from you right now, Poetan. You're a winner because you're holding 10 pounds of UFC gold and you need to keep that. The vibes tell me, Uncle I have is going to finally do this thing.

And it'll be sad because Alex Pereira is incredibly fun. Like, obviously the fun outcome is for Pereira to win. I don't know. So I'm priced into it. I have the bet. We're there. I don't feel good at all. I won't at all be surprised if Poetan gets this done.

And then suddenly he's fighting John Jones later this year. But I am deeply, deeply fascinated in this fight. I'm really excited we're finally getting at Luke. I think you just kind of answered my next question. I was going to say, if we cash on this and Uncle Yves wins, Poetan is not staying at Light Heavyweight, right? Surely not, right? Right. There's nothing for him there.

He lost it middleweight and was like, I'm done. I mean, I guess maybe if it's competitive, right, like if he loses a really close one, maybe he just says, I want to run it back, you know, reclaim the victory. But like, 100% if he loses, he should just go up to heavyweight. Frankly, if he wins, he should go up to heavyweight. All right, I'm done it. I beat the last guy at light heavyweight. I'm going to go up to heavyweight now.

I'll fight Tom or John, whichever one is the one who I get to fight, but I'll fight them. And I'm going to try and do a thing that's never been done before. So I think win or lose, he should go up. Certainly, if he loses and it's close competitive, if he doesn't just get his doors blown off, then maybe he tries to run it back. But yeah, I think this should be his final 205 fight realistically. Because, like, who else? I got watching fight Carlos Albu.

if Alberg gets, I think Alberg's fighting Jan Belhovic, if Alberg beats Jan Belovich, like, I watch the other fight. Like, I'll watch Alex Breyer fight anybody. That'll be incredibly fun to me to watch him fight any human being alive. But I don't need to see any of them. This is the only fight I need to see. I needed this to happen.

I'm glad it is happening. And I'm comfortable with this being the end of his 205 run. Because, like, let's, even if he doesn't fight, like, if he loses and, by losing no longer gets to fight John or Tom immediately. That's fine. Derek Lewis, come on down. Like, watch the shit out of Alex Pereira fight Derek Lewis at heavyweight.

I don't watch the shit at Alex Pereira fight like Sergey Pavlovich or whatever. Like, just put some dudes. Like, let's have some fun with him if he does end up losing this. So really, really glad this fight's happening. Really excited about the main event. Pretty important that I'm excited about the main event, because I won't lie to you people. the rest of this card I'm not as excited about it's not bad I'm not due to tell you that it's bad

I do not have the same level of excitement for anything else going and that includes Luke our co-main event just in gaetheed making things back against hafail fazeiv gaichi was of course supposed to fight dan hooker and what was a presumptive number one contender fight not necessarily but probably was one now he is running things back with Fiziv because Hooker broke his hand. I was trying to remember exactly. Hooker broke his hand, which drew from the ballot. Apparently tried to continue competing and ultimately his team would not allow it.

So now Fiziz's first fight since September of 2023 when he injured himself against Matush Gamrot. And this is a rematch of the Gaichi fight at UFC 286 in March of that year. So just almost dead on. two years, a couple, like a week and a half or something different, since their first one, which was one of the better fights of 2023. I think it was number four on the MMA fighting end of year rankings, one fight of the night, terrific outing.

Gachi, of course, coming off the UFC 300 lost to Max Holloway, lost the BMF belt, one of the most iconic knockouts, if not the most iconic knockout in MMA history. How are you feeling about this one? Let's start here. I have been very vocal. I don't care for this fight. I kind of wish this fight wasn't happening on Saturday. Both partly we'll get to I'm a Gaichi Homer,

but more because like I just, this is never a rematch I needed to see. It will be fun undeniably. Justin Gaichi is never boring. Their first fight was incredibly fun. I just, we have at most like three Gaichi fights left and maybe one. I don't want it to be this one.

I wanted the hooker fight. I would have much preferred they punted us and just done the hooker fight later and said, screw it. So how are you feeling about the fight before we get into the breakdown? I definitely agree with your sentiment. Like, I feel like I would have just preferred they rescheduled the hooker fight. It's a banger of a fight. I also don't, again, it sounds weird to say I don't care about this fight, but like I don't,

it doesn't do anything for the rankings necessarily. We just saw these guys fight two years ago. How much different could it really be this time around? the biggest X-factor in this fight is Gachie coming off that knockout to Holloway. Like is his chin completely gone or is he just fine? I mean, he did take a year off. You got to give him credit for that. He did do the right thing there.

He didn't rush back into another fight. How much of that time was he not sparring, though? I don't know. Justin Gage's a madman. So that does worry me a little bit in this fight. But as far as care level, yeah, it's not that high for this. But it probably will be a banger and it probably will win fight of the night. again, let's be real.

I mean, it's 100% going to win fire the night and be a banger because that's what Justin Gathe does. And Rafael Fasiv is also obviously a very exciting fighter himself. Yeah, like the Gachie Hooker fight was my most anticipated fight on the calendar. And now instead, I'm getting a rematch of a fight that I never needed to see again, despite it being great. You know, I also think we talked about this a lot on the shows after it was announced, like, what does this mean?

Like the winner is probably just fighting Dan Hooker next because that makes the most sense. So like we're, this is instead of getting the fight we wanted, now we're getting a preamble to the fight we wanted, which is super weird and awkward. Like, I guess it's, you know, many people can say it's better than not having Gaichi fight. I think I'd just rather Gaichi fight Hooker in like two months or whatever. But nonetheless, they are fighting and Gaichi is the underdog this time around plus 130, despite being the winner the first time. Fiziv minus 155 is a betting favorite, despite not having fought in 18 months and not having won since 2022, I believe. I won't bear the lead. I think that there's a reason for the odds being that way, and I think it is the reason you basically suggested, Luke.

Gichi coming off a brutal K.O. I don't think his chin is gone and taking a year off certainly helps, but I think more to the point. I've watched the UFC 300 fight like seven or eight times at this point. point, I just do not believe Justin Gachi is remotely near his prime anymore. I think, I don't think Max Holloway is either. I think Max Holloway looked diminished and that was two diminished fighters putting on an all-time classic because they are all-time greats. Neither man was at his best there. I think Gaichi was slightly worse and ultimately, you know, paid the price despite that being a very competitive fun fight, my fight of the year choice for 2025 or 2024.

That is deeply concerning as he faces Hafeel Fazeveh, who, coming off a long layoff, sure, but he's not physically compromised. I don't think. Like, he's had a long time to recover from his leg injury. He's still in his relative youth in prime. He gave Gaci a whole lot of problems the first time around. Some people thought he won the first matchup. To me, this is formulaic. I think, despite my love for Justin Gachi, I do believe Hafeel Faziv is going to win.

part of why I hate this fight is I believe Raphael Fazeveh is going to win and that's just sort of shitty given the circumstances and where we're at with Gaechi in his career and so I have a bet on Fiziv because I think that their first fight was incredibly

close and now Fiziv is still in his athletic peak and Gachi is clearly not anymore and so that should shift the dynamic enough to get Fiziv the win but what say you Luke? I mean I agree with everything you're saying as far as like trajectory. Gache's probably on the way

out. Fiziv, more rising contender. I get it, but dude, the last fight was only two years ago. Like, not that much has changed. Fiziv coming off two losses, that knee injury you mentioned, end the year and a half layoff. Like, could have some ring rust in there. I do think the three rounds definitely

favors Gage. I know their first fight was three rounds, but like, you're telling me this fight's five rounds. I'm probably siding with you and going Fiziv, but it's a three-rounder. I think Gachie can get it done again. I got him at plus 125. I'm a little bum to see the line. has gone up. I also actually got him at plus 100 earlier and then once it kept growing was like, I got to double down on this, get it a plus 125 now. But I'm riding with Gachi, dude. You got to.

I hope you're right because Gachie's one of my 10 favorite fighters ever. I'm always happy to see him win. He's just going to forget that he can jab for 10 minutes and then the final round when he's down 2.0, he'll start jabbing and win the fight is, like win that round and then lose the fight. Like that's, I see it so clearly of just being like, oh, Fiziv will make slight adjustments. Gae will forget how to fight for a while because sometimes he does that. And now he's older and things will go worse for him. Hope I'm wrong. Sincerely hope I'm wrong.

And then we can finally get the Gaiji hooker matchup, which is really what we should be getting anyway. We do have to mention, though, that Gachie's one career takedown in the UFC did come against Fiziv. So does he wrestle him again? Does he get his second takedown against him? It could happen. I, oh, man, there will not be odds anywhere on that, but the takedown lit count, I might. That would be a fun thing to throw a bet on just the over takedown number. I've been having a lot of fun with those.

Last week, Nassarat Hackpress to get a takedown was plus 230 hit it in the first round. I've played a little around with the like strike total bets and stuff, like Fanduil off for strike totals. Yeah. And I played around a little bit with those. I haven't done along the takedowns. That might be a fun one to look at, though. But no odds up for that at this moment. Moving right along, those are the two big fights and things will go a little speedier here,

but want to take some time because another lightweight fight on this main card. Here's the reason UFC 313 is good, Luke. Lightweight's the best division of the sport and three cards in the main card, or three fights on the main card, are lightweights, so you're getting your money's worth. And this one is exciting because they are big lightweights, couple of big fellas in here. Jalen Turner taking on Ignacio Bahamonday's. This will look like a welterweight. out to the casual observer when they step in as both are gigantic humans, Turner.

Two and three in his past five coming off that TKO lost to Hanato Moikano at UFC 300. So he has also taken a big extended break, as Justin Gaci did. Bahamondez is four and one over the past five and coming off a TKO win over Manuel Torres in September. How do you see the feature bout of the evening playing out? Because I think longtime listeners of this program or any other MMA fighting program know exactly where I'm going. Oh, wow. All right. Well, I will say in the last five years, Jalen Turner's only lost the top 10 lightweights, which is kind of crazy stat. In the last five years, he did lose to like frivola early on in his career, but still. He has lost three of his last four, as you mentioned.

Bahamundes hasn't even fought anyone in the top 15, but he has won five of his last six. That lone loss did come to Ludovic Klein, who's really good. That's not a bad loss at all. Turner has struggled with the wrestling in the past, but Baja Mondays, he ain't going to wrestle. He has zero takedowns through seven UFC fights. So that really should not be a factor here. He does, however, train with Balal. So maybe he has been working on the wrestling. Could surprise us.

I don't know. I don't like it. The odds tell all here, dude, this feels like a coin flip. I could convince myself that either guy could win. So I'm just going to stay away from the money line here. I do want it to go a little long. I say want because I did take the over one and a half minus 185 in a parlay. It is the last leg of that parlay.

and I feel like it's also the riskiest leg of that parlay. Obviously, I'll get to the other legs as we go, but that's the only reason I was feeling good about it. Like, all right, the parlay relies on this leg. So if it hits great, at least it's not early on. I'm going to just ruin my whole night. So we'll see. I do have a side, and that side is Jalen Turner.

I'm a huge Jalen Turner supporter. He is all of my weaknesses in prospect scouting and in fandom. He's just a gigantic dude with predatory offense and clear flaws and like super athletic and all those things. I'm just like, I could fix him. He is an I could fix you guy for me.

I am the girl who refuses to ditch her deadbeat boyfriend because if you could fix him, somebody's going to fix him. And when they do, man, he'll just be the best husband of all time. That's why I'm out with Jalen Turner. I thought he was fixed before. this losing streak he's been on, or there's three or four. Exactly. He could have been fixed.

And I actually, honest to God, the fix for him, the way to fix him, if I could ever get in a room with him, would tell him the fix is just go be a welterweight. Like, I honestly think that will solve 90% of your problems. The other 10% is just being a better defensive wrestler. But just go be a welterweight and that will solve a lot of the issues you're having because you're cutting an enormous amount of weight and clearly fighting compromised at times as a result of it. But he's been my boy for basically ever,

probably since the Eros Medich just ass-beaten. It was probably like when I was like, this will be my man. I will support him through all things. Bonnese is also a dude who I but definitionally love because he's got a funky, cool offense, and he's gigantic. You know, he's hitting wheel kicks and brabo jokes and shit.

Like I love, that's why I love this fight. His fight's incredible. But Jalen Turner is my original son. And so I will support him. And I think because Bahamandas probably won't wrestle, I don't actually even know if he's ever attempted to take down the UFC. Dylan Turner could, though. He has done a little bit of grappling. Certainly is a, like, pretty good offensive grappler when he wants to get things going.

So maybe he can mix it in. And I think he's just a better athlete of the two. And so I do actually favor him in the striking exchanges as well. But mostly I think this fight's going to be awesome, really excited for it. And I've got to support my boys because. If you don't stand with them, like you're nothing yourself, RIP Bodie. Moving on to a women's strawweight contest. I guess I could have just said straw weight because there are no men's straw weights to compete in the UFC.

So Amanda Limosch is taking on Yasmin Lucindo. Lucendo getting her shot at the big time and she is a relatively, you know, sizable favorite considering a minus 150 to come back on Limos at plus 125. Limos three and two over a past five coming off the submission loss to Venus and Giroba back in July, whereas Lucindo is on a four-fight winning streak. Since losing the Yasmini Uruguay in 2022, she has put it together and coming off a split decision win over Marina Hadriguez back in October, so she is now getting a real opportunity to establish herself as a legitimate new face, new contender, and kind of a stale division.

Luke, how are you feeling about the straw weight contest on the main card? So, Lemosch in the last five years, has only lost to top five straw weights, and three of our last four wins have come over top 15 straw weights. You mentioned Lucindo's four-fight win streak, but only one of those came against a ranked strawweight. So Lemoche clearly fighting the better competition here. Lucindo, though, will probably have the wrestling advantage. She took down all four opponents on her current four-fight win streak multiple times, too. And Lemoche was taken down in her last two losses, including

six times by the champ. I still actually lean Lemos here though, dude, especially at plus 125, I feel like there's really good value there. I did not officially take it. I will probably take it later in the week. My official pick for this is the over two and a half at minus 265.

It's in that parlay I mentioned with the over one and a half in Turner Bahamundas. There is one more leg on it. Lemos has hit it in two of her last three and Lucindo is hit it in five of her last six. So I think this one probably goes the distance. I very much agree on the distance.

That will bring us to a question in mere moments, but I will start by saying I'm on Yasmin Lucindo. I think we are about to see a decline in Amanda Limosh. She is getting a little bit older. She has never been a terrific defensive wrestler. Good grappler, but she has struggled with people who just attempt to take her down. And Lucindo, I think she is still far away from being her best self. She is, look this up.

I want to say she's like 24. She's 23, I think. Sorry, just turned 23, in fact. So, like, she has still got plenty of development to do, but we do know she's going to come in. She's going to get attempt takedowns. A lot of takedowns. Get more than she doesn't.

And I, you know, proven pretty durable. I think that she can have enough success to sort of arrive. Maybe I'm wishcasting, because I would like a new person who is interesting to be a player at 115 because it's been the same 12 people for seven years, it feels like. But the question we have is this. I have two doors. I got two options ahead of me here, Luke, and the options are thusly.

I agree this fight's likely to go long. The over one and a half in this, it's minus 450, that's right inside the range we're looking at to climb with. And in that over one and a half, Lucindo, 5 and 0 in a UFC career, all five of U.S. fights have gone over the one and a half mark. Limos, seven and five in a UFC career. Not exactly what we're looking for. And so it's a dangerous bet to be a climb bet.

I don't need your input on it now. There's one other option that I'm more leaning towards, though I also don't feel good about it. That's option B for our possible climb. And if we don't use it as a climb, it will go in a three-leg parlay of overs. That would be the first leg of the pacifist. parlay that that will be developed outside.

So keep that in mind, Luke, just, you know, mull it over think about it because we'll get to the other option very, very soon here. But for now, let's close out the main card. You erroneously dead named this man. You called them by a name previously as a show. That is not true. I don't know who Bobby Green is, but he don't fight in the UFC because King Green fights in the UFC, which is interesting because to the best of my knowledge,

knowledge, he now no longer has the nickname King. Otherwise, he'd be King, King, Green, but it'd be kind of fun if he was. But he is taking on Mauricio Huffy of Fighting Nerd's fame. And Huffy, a minus 460 betting favorite. I believe the second biggest betting favorite on the card, if I'm not mistaken. And Green plus 360 as an underdog coming in off the technical submission loss to Petty Pimble. Back in July, whereas Murphy is a... 2 and O in the U.C and won a unanimous decision over Yomis Lontop back in November.

The fighting nerves are surging. The hottest gym in the sport, does it continue on Saturday loop? Probably, but that's not where I'm going with it. Either way, Green has won three of his last five. He was finished in his last four losses. Do feel like his chin might be gone here. You're fighting someone in Ruffy, who's a powerful striker, 10 of his 11 wins by knockout.

He's looked good. He's certainly capable of catching Bobby. Bobby's active, though. He's hard to hit. He's outstruck six of his last seven opponents, despite only winning three of those fights. And Rufie actually gets hit more often than he lands, and he was outstruck by 20 significant strikes

against the aforementioned lawn top. So I do feel like there is a world. Bobby Green pulls up the upset, which is why I'm just staying away from this. I don't want to take Rufie that big of a price tag, and I don't really trust Bobby. I just, I could see it. I'm going with the over one and a half here.

I got it at plus, or sorry, plus 225, minus 225. That is the third leg. So I'm going over one and a half in this fight, over two and a half in Lemos-Lusendo, and over one and a half in Turner-Baha Mondays. Those three together got me plus 206. I'm feeling good about that. This is, we talked off air. I don't actually remember if I've said this on the broadcast or not at this point.

There are a couple of bets that I feel great about. I don't know that they're winning bets, but I feel like I've, that the value is very, very clear. This is one of them. I got Bobby Green at plus 400. Not a full unit. Just a little sprinkle. Plus 400 is a big number, though. For a fight that I think he can win.

Yes, he is certainly not at his peak condition, either more. I think Ruffy is like not, I don't know, there's not a kind way to say. I think he's one of the less good fighting nerds dudes. I agree. I wasn't that impressed with him coming off Contender Series. He fights like Connor McGregor, but isn't as good as. Connor. Like, he very clearly developed his style in the vein of Connor McGregor without having, like,

Connor's unbelievable natural timing and really without the same level of power, like Connor brings to the cage as well. And so I, that's just a style that I think Bobby Green can be really well suited to just avoid getting hit by the right hand is pretty much the game there. And Bobby Green is defensively savvy. He's getting older and his chin isn't like bulletproof, but I don't really hold. hold a lot against him for getting knocked out by Jalen Turner, who is gigantic human, who's super athletic and hits like a freaking truck.

So, like, I think he can even stand up to some shots from Ruffy. Basically, just way too big a price tag, right? Like, if I'm picking him straight up, I will be picking Huffy to win this fight. But minus 500 is such a, such an enormous price, plus 400 for Bobby Green. Just a little sprinkle of action because I do think that he is a live dog and these odds are. are pretty valuable. So that's the main card, Luke. It hasn't dropped yet,

but when Bobby Green with the spread drops, I'll probably hop on that because that's probably still plus money, plus three. Spread bet. There was one other spread bet I'm potentially looking at on this card.

That is absolutely a, get a, you know, a plus three and a half at, you know, plus 120 or something like that. I jump on it,

take it. Um, and that takes us to our prelims and an important, some would, say critical fight is happening. I would say that because this is the other fight we got to talk

about in relation to the climb. The heavyweights, the big fellas are coming out. Curtis, Razor Blades taking on Risvon Kooniev. Blades, a minus 350 betting favorite to comeback on Kunev plus 285. You all know Carter's Blades at this point, been around

forever. Always the Brides made, never the bride. Finally got to fight for the UFC quote unquote interim heavyweight title. and got summarily thrashed by Tom Aspinall back in July. Kunev making his UFC debut. He came off the contender series, but prior to that was a PFL veteran where he has a win. I guess that's not technically correct phrasing.

He defeated Hinnon Faheta in the PFL before that got overturned because he popped for all the steroids. If you would like to know what a steroid is, go look at the list of things that Rizvon Kuhnob. have popped for. That's it. He popped for all of them. And the UFC looked at this man

who was not exciting or interesting in PFL and failed just the most drugs and was like, we should put him on contender series. And they did.

And he won. And now he's in the UFC, his UFC debut, getting a, let me pull up the UFC rankings right now. He's just, because like,

crazy things are happening in the UFC heavyweight division in general, like two weeks ago or whatever, Talison Tashara got to fight for a ranked, like a ranking in his freaking debut or whatever. And now he's number 15. Yeah, now he's number 15.

Curtis Blades is number five. So Rizvon Kuniev can be one of the five best heavyweights in the world in his UFC debut because I don't know what the heavyweight division is doing anymore. Luke, how are you feeling about this one? Tell me your thoughts. Dude, well, that's blown my mind that you just, pointed that out that he will be top five if he wins this fight sure will uh many things are happening in the u scee last week freaking alonzo minifield number 15 or 14th c rankings was putting

like his spot on line against another debailles and not even a contender series julius walker just dude off the street getting a chance like it these upper the light heavy and heavy who it is a lawless land out there right now it's tough uh cooenev the you mentioned he got popped. He hasn't been very active besides that though. He's only fought once a year since 2020. He got popped in 2023 so like I could understand taking off time after that but even before that this man was

fighting once a year. He did fight three UFC veterans on his way to the UFC. He went one and two in those fights and the only win was over a 41 year old Anthony Hamilton. I'm sorry you got to clarify who those losses are two because it's pretty important information. Well wait

now I got to look back. I just have in my notes that he went one and two. It's Darko Stozyk and Justin Friggin Willis. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. They both lost or they both fought big titty. That's why I remember. When you say he fought UFC veterans, he lost to the worst UFC veterans.

Yeah. Justin Willis had a solid run. He beat Mark Hunt and shit. He was, he was doing good. Granted, it was early in his career, but no. Yeah. We're not playing that game. Dude, the sell on that was that he beat a 41-year-old Anthony Hamlet.

I mean, it's to point out how shitty he was. Either way, I can't trust him over a veteran-like blades, like you were saying. And since 2017, Blades has only fought top 15 guys at the time of their fights. His last four fights have come against the current top six heavyweights, including a win. Yes, Jed. A win. A win. A win.

Asterisk or not over the current interim champ. Tom Aspenol. A win is a win. A win is a win. I could see it going long, so I will be tempted to take the over two and a half, which is plus money right now, plus $120. Either way, definitely taking Curtis Blades in a parlay. I haven't come up with it yet, but, you know, I'll throw that in something. I mean, long-time listeners

this program will know that I love a heavyweight over. It's the most electric bet in combat sports, maybe all of sports. You're just watching two big fellas, and at any point in time, your money could be lit on fire. I'm not doing it. The question here, this is the other opportunity for the climb. It's just taking Curtis Blades straight up.

It is probably my default climb bet. I will be like, it is a little bit forced. feel amazing about it. I do think Curtis Blades is going to win this fight. I think that he is honestly the superior striker of the two. I think he is the better athlete. He is a much bigger heavyweight. He is a natural to like 70

or whatever, 275, 80. Whereas Kunev is like walks around to that 240 range. I think Blades can tackle him if he needs to and do some of the striking and Kunev is not like a huge guy to be afraid of striking back with him. I don't love climbing with heavyweeds.

just in general. It's not the, it's not the happiest thing I've ever done. But I didn't do any last week because that card was trash. I really feel compelled to do something this week. And this feels like the best option I have. The other option, of course, being that over one and a half on a limo schlucendo.

So I'm actually going to side with the Lemosch lucendo one here because I feel like, all right, Curtis Blades all five career losses coming by knockout. You're not a little worried. that at heavyweight he could get caught with something. I mean, I'd be worried about that. Whereas you mentioned Lemos, I think you said, was seven and five and hitting the over one and a half.

I haven't looked back, but I'm sure those five were her getting the finish. And I don't think Lucindo's been finished before. So like I feel like that's the safer play. Let me fact check myself on that. Has Lucinda? I believe you are correct. The other concern, though, is yet,

well, the other part of that is. Sorry. Yeah, Curtis Blades has been knocked out. all his losses. That's just, Rizvvv doesn't really do. I know, but it is heaven. It's still a giant human being throwing you know, with force.

It's why, again, it's why I don't feel like massively good about it, but there's just nothing else I, like, I don't frankly feel good about Lucinda Limbaugh's because like, it's entirely possible limo just kills her. It's like, throws a knee and she dies. I think you're

answering your own question here and I think you want to take Curtis Blades and you were hoping I was going to side and double down for you there. I think I just sort of am feeling priced into it because I hate every choice that's available to me. But like, it's also one of those things, man. I talked about this the other week. I'm 11 steps up.

It is so much easier to climb when you're on step five or whatever. It's like whatever, right? Four bets down. Now the footing is precarious because it took a lot to get 11 bets down. And it'll all come crash. down and I'll just have to rebuild that whole house of cards. So like I want ones that I feel amazing about, but there's just nothing I feel amazing about on this card.

I think, though, we are just going to trust Curtis Blades to get it done. And then I can hate him forever. If he loses by like not wrestling and just gets knocked out, I can hate him forever and I can take some solace in having a new enemy because I'm a firm believer that everybody should have enemies. it makes life more rich and fulfilling. And Curtis Blades can be one of those for me,

despite the fact that I actually like him a lot, but I will hate him if he loses his fight. So Curtis Blades is going to be our climb at minus 350. Let's go. I am looking up and down this card, just money line-wise. That is the safest money-line. That's honestly it. It's the only money line that I feel,

if I had to pick one money line, this is the one I would feel the best at. Yeah, I agree. So it's, it's a tough. seen because it's a tough card man let's keep all moving down the prelims though to a fight that i am legitimately pumped about i'm be super excited about this one joshua van taking on ray seruya in a mince flyweight contest van four and one uh over his past five and coming off the unanimous decision win over cody durden back in december think four of those fights happened 2024 but i'd

have to fact check myself on that suruia undefeated 10 and no prospect one road to ufc and then won his UFC debut a unanimous decision win over Carlos Hernandez back in June. Both men are very young, like 23 or 24. Just like this is the future of the flyweight division right here matching up. Bit odd circumstances. Seria was supposed to fight at 312.

Take on Stuart Nicoli. Nicoli pull out. That fight fell through. Van was supposed to fight Bruno Silva this weekend. Bruce Silva fell out and now we're Frankensteining this matchup together with stepping in. a fight I am just super super excited about how do you feel about this one Luke first I just want to say you were correct all four the van fights were in

2024 I thought that was right second of all they're even younger than you thought van is 23 suruia's 22 yeah like you said great stylistic great stylistic matchup of young prospects here how about this van has the highest strikes landed per minute in the UFC all time of people with at least five UFC fights. He lands almost nine strikes per minute. Saruya, on the other hand, through four Zufa fights, has 1.31 strikes absorb per minute, which would be tied for eighth lowest in the UFC had he met that five-fight threshold. So this is essentially Van who lands a lot and Saruya who doesn't get hit. Surio also has 15 takedowns in his four Zufa fights, and we've seen Van taken down by three different opponents.

do think Josh Van is the better fighter, but if Saruya can get him down a few times, I think he can get the upset here. I'm taking a flyer on him plus 170. Let's go. My dude, let's go. I'm a big race for a guy is just sort of the answer. I really like Josh Van too. I think that these are two top 10 fly weights in the near future and will be for some time.

I got a lot of respect for basically Van just. Van is doing prospecting the correct way. He's just fighting a ton. I think that that is the best thing you can do when you're a young fighter. Just learn how to fight by doing, get in there a bunch. Saruya is, you know, a former cadet, like, world-level wrestler, junior Olympian. Like, he has a very specific set of skills. The other parts of it aren't there yet.

Like, he is still really developing those parts. But I think that that wrestling ability is good enough to make him a live dog here, because Van can't get taken down. Like Cody Durden took him down. It was hard. Cody Durden is a good enough wrestler, and Van really fended him off well. But Durden took him down and was able to control big stretches of that fight as a result.

I think Suria is just a better athlete than Cody Durden. So getting a good price on him, right? Like a plus 170, which is where I got him at, Ray Surrhea felt like value to me. I am on Ray Suruya. and we will continue moving on down to a fight. I'm extremely excited to talk about for the silliest of reasons. Bruno Faheda taking on...

Oh, me too. Oh, are you? Do we have the same gimmick on this? I mean, we definitely don't have the same gimmick, but it could be an interrelated gimmick, certainly. Bruno Fahedahedah taking on Armine Petrosian in a middleweight contest of the middle prelim section. Fedah three and two in his past five lost to Abis Magamatov last time out at U.S. 308 be a triangle choke.

And Petrojan, two and three over his past five, coming off the very memorable knockout loss to Sharra Bullet at UFC 308, the double spinning backfist knockout in a fight that Petrojan was, you know, having a good compete in. Here's what we're doing here. Let why don't you start us off with your, whatever gimmick you're operating? I'm operating a very specific gimmick, and the gimmick is the matchman. makers are kings, because this is some real Joe Silva level matchmaking to this card. Bruno Faheta, the Hulk, taking an arm in Petrosion, Superman, Superman v. The Hulk. Joe Silva would love this fight. As a result, I love this fight. It tickles me with the gimmick. I've done something very particular for it. But what have you done, Luke?

So I channeled my inner Jose Youngs, and I went, The Hulk versus Superman. That's probably a comic book or something. Let me Google it. You're damn right it is. Looked up the storyline. Here's a blurb on the ending. Quote unquote. The battle ends when Superman musters up a punch so powerful, he knocks the Hulk into a part of the canyon, causing debris to fall on him. Standing over his unconscious opponent, Superman muses that the Hulk took everything he had and almost stood up to it.

I mean, dude, if we're not taking Arm in Petrosian by K.O. at plus 240 here, what are we doing with our lives? Also, it says he musters everything he has or whatever. so it's going to be a late KO, round two, round three. I may also jump on those props. Gimick aside, though, I actually do like Bruno Faheda in this fight. They both struggle against wrestling. Bruno was taken down in both his UFC losses.

And besides getting double-spitting backfist by Sharra Bullitt, like you mentioned, Armin was taken down in his other two losses before that. Armin might be the more technical striker, but Bruno's just going to bum rush you throw him bombs so he could catch Armin. Also, if it goes to the ground, Bruno does have a few submission wins under his belt, unlike Armin who has zero and was sub two fights ago, more ways to get it done for Bruno and he's a dog. I'm riding with him plus 124.

But I will take that Armin, K.O., you damn right. I mean, we're on just the exact identical bet. Not the KOs. I didn't do the Kio. I just took Armin, but for the exact same reasons. I mean, we know how this fight goes. You know, we have seen Superman in the Hulk battle. We are aware of the actual.

outcome. And while the outcome is probably, you know, if you extrapolate this out a round three knockout for Petrosian, I, you know, maybe things are different. Maybe this is a different version of Hulk, right? Maybe this is like Battleworld Hulk or Smart Hulk and so things can be a little bit different. But we've seen it. So we're actually on the exact same reason behind the gimmick and there's zero chance I wasn't going to do it as soon as I recognized what this matchmaking was. So I'm on Arm and Petrosian. I deeply, deeply hope that this fight plays out exactly like the comic book. Me too. Right up to the fact of

Petrojan knocking out Fahedda so hard that part of the ring collapses on top of him. Or like his mouthpiece falls on him or something. It would be the best. It would be everything I ever needed to see. Moving us right along. We've got four fights left to talk about. There's a welterweight

contest up next. And this is the other fight that I have, what I believe to be, an exceptional bet on. Alex Morono, taking on Carlos Le Al, Morono, a biggest underdog on the card plus 525 Leyal minus 750 despite the fact

that he lost his UFC debut last year to Renath Fakradinov actually pretty sure I screwed that up but we're going to blast right past it previous to that Laal was a PFL competitor so we know about him it didn't just lose his UFC debut

and then be the biggest favorite on this card Morono back-to-back losses including a split decision against Danny Rodriguez back in October were the Great White versus the Lion. More fun matchmaking nickname battles going on here. How you see this one, Luke? Well, you mentioned Liao lost to Fakritino, we'll say.

He looked decent in the process, though, dude. There's significant strikes for almost dead even in that fight. He stuffed 17 takedown attempts from Renat, and he became the first person in the UFC to take down Renat. So I could see why the odds are where they are. Marono, on the other hand, hasn't beaten anyone under the age of 39 in three years. years. His last fight with D-Rod was close, but D-Rod was 37. You know, he's still two years away from being beatable for Marono. So maybe in two years, Marano can get that one back, but, you know,

he's not 39 yet. In all seriousness, Morono is decent everywhere, but he's not great anywhere. And his last seven wins have come against guys that are no longer on the UFC roster. Lial, the younger, quicker guy. He's got 10 wins by knockout. Marono's been knocked out three times before. I already mentioned he got Renot down and Morono's been taken down. in his last three losses. So Lial probably runs right through him here. Maybe it goes the distance. Either way, probably a K.O.

Or decision. So Lial by KO is minus 150. I will be taking that in a parley. And I'm also going to, they set the line at over one and a half at minus 200. I'm definitely throwing that in a parlay. I would have thought they set it at two and a half, but I'll take the one and a half.

Speaking of the over one and a half, I realize that I also have the over one and a half in the Van Saruya. That will be part of the pacifist parlay, minus 375 to circle back to this matchup. Here's where I'm at. One, I tried to ask ChachyPT to gimmick this one of who would win a fight between a lion and a Great White. And Chatsypte was deeply unhelpful because it correctly acknowledged that the fight is a complete one-sided beatdown, depending on whether it happens on land or the ocean.

Obviously, if it happens in the ocean, the shark wins. if it happens in the land, the lion wins because the shark will physically just die. It's so, like, tough to really find a middle ground. Chat CBD was literally like, it depends where they're fighting. Are they fighting the ocean? The shark wins. Fighting on land?

In a neutral zone? I don't know what that neutral zone looks like. Doesn't that answer our question? They're fighting on land, so. They are fighting on land. I suppose this is true. I decided to, extrapolate out and say, you know, a shark can only beat a lion if he can take the lion into

deep waters. Ooh. Gotta get him into those late rounds, you know? I like that. But I honestly don't think that Marano even has that in. And so instead, I just, I decided to stop gimmicking this fight, which I was really trying hard to gimmick this fight. And I just like, because I was just looking around.

And I noticed something that I think is a miss. And it is Carlos Liao, by decision is plus two, That is a big gap between the minus 750 of Laos versus the plus 225 of his method of victory, essentially. Morono, eight of his losses, 11 career losses have come on the cards. He has been knocked out, and Leal could do it. I just think that the price you are getting for that relative to everything else is extremely off. I expected Liao by decision to be a minus number.

not like a big minus but like minus 115 minus 120 and instead it is plus 225 that just feels wrong to me and so a value bet on it won't be shocked if layout does get him out of there certainly but feel the value is there and so my second value bet that if I lose that's fine I still think I'm on the right side of history with this one moving right along to the last not the last fight sorry we have three fights left uh Last, I don't have much on this one, though, so I hope you can carry us because Myron Santos taking on Francis Marshall, Santos, the tough 32 winner coming off his victory over Conno Flea in August to claim the Ultimate Fighter Crown. Marshall Contender Series guy, two and two, split decision went over Dennis Bazookcha. I don't honestly remember when that was, and I didn't write down the note.

I think Santos is going to win this fight. Santos was like a pretty decent prospect before even joining tough, but I don't. feel like I'm amazing about it. Frankly, maybe I just, I get bored and I decide to do a Santos parley with the other upcoming Santos who probably will win, but pretty short breakdown.

Francis Marshall is fine, but nothing spectacular. And Santos is certainly a decent level of prospect that the USC is going to look to build as a tough winner. Yeah, I'm not sold on Santos yet. I mean, he looked good in his debut, but like you mentioned,

it came over fellow tough alum Khan Offley, who's winless in the UFC. I mean, he hasn't looked good. Let's be honest. Marshall, 2 and 2, you mentioned that. He did lose to William Gomi, who was undefeated as of last weekend. He's 4 and 1 now in the UFC. And Isaac Dolgarian, who's 2 and 1 in the UFC,

but he lost that, like, controversial split decision to C-Rod. You know, he's an up-and-comer. He should be good. Marshall does have 10 takedowns in his five Zufa fights, and Santos has yet to be shot on in the UFC. So maybe Marshall gets him down and coast to a victory, who knows? At the same time, majority of Santos is, have come by knockout and Marshall was knocked out in his last loss.

So it hasn't dropped yet, but D.K. has those either or bets where you could bet. This guy wins this way or this guy wins this way. So I think I'm going to take Santos by K.O. or Marshall by decision. I think if Francis Marshall wins, it's probably just wrestling him for 15 minutes and I think Santos could knock him out. I also really do like the over two and a half as a parlay piece. It's minus 175. Santos has hit it in six of his. last eight and Marshall's hit it in five of his last seven. So it should go a little long.

I honestly, I think that I've just been thinking about this, this whole thing. I think you've sold me. I'm just going to do the Santos Parlay. Just because it would be fun. And I think both of them are going to win and we'll talk about the other one a second. And I won't care enough.

I'm not emotionally invested. So if it loses, that's also fine as well. But it gives me something to look forward to because frankly, the early portion of this card, I personally do not care about. Like, if I wasn't working, I would probably be like, oh, I'm just going to skip the early prelims, and you can check me in for Hulk versus Superman. That's when I'll be like time to tune in.

But this will give me something to little added on to it. And with that resounding endorsement, let's move along to the next prelim, which is the other Santos to talk about. Jordan Santos taking on Ozzy Diaz, Jordan Santos minus 190 betting favorite. Ozzy Diaz plus 160 Santos, a contender series prospect from the most recent season. I think that's season eight. Diaz lost his UFC debut to Ming Yang Zhang back in November. Was a contender series product, didn't get signed off contender series, then got signed later to be cannon fodder to Zhang, basically.

My breakdown on Santa, like I'm not a big Jordan Santos. guy. I thought that he was a he's a dude who on the Contender series showed that he is a capable fighter, but nothing jumps off the page, not very exciting. That being said, Oz Diaz is probably not UFC caliber, whatever that

means at this day and age anyway. So I do, like, basically every person he's fought that is remotely good he has lost to. And so I do think Jordan Santos will win and the Santos Parley can flourish. I mean, I hope you're right.

By the way, can we just talk about how Santos belongs with Robocop in the under 35 but looks 50 plus club? Have you seen this man's Sherdog photo, dude? He's 27. He looks like he's 52 in that photo. I mean, what are we doing here? He seems good on paper. Got them sitting. He seems good on paper, but with the exception of his contender series fight that you mentioned,

he's only won in some like random ass promotions. I've literally heard of none of these. The lone time he fought in a promotion that we know, Titan FC, he lost. So like, is he fighting a bunch of scrubs in these no-name promotions? I don't know. His opposition was absolutely terrible. Yeah. Like it,

there you go. It was all atrocious. Like he's beating dudes that are like six and 20 and something. Like he, there's nothing relevant from, from his regional career. Yeah. Ozzie,

on the other hand, has fought in legit promotions, but his career has been pretty inactive. He's only fought 12 times in the last 10 years. He did fight three times last year. However, he went two and one. He beat Chuck Campbell,

who had lost two of his last three going into that. and Bavon Lewis, who had lost six of his last seven. And you mentioned he got C-Oed by Ming Yang Zhang in his UFC debut. Personally, I can't trust either of these guys' money line, although Santos probably the move, so I get you going for the Santos part of the way. Over one and a half is intriguing. It's minus 190.

Santos has hit it in six of his last seven, but Diaz has only hit it once in his 12 fight pro career. It did come two fights ago for whatever that's worth, but probably going to ride with the over one and a half. I mean, that's probably fine, right? Yeah, like, yeah. Seems fine and tough. And we end with a whimper as we move on to the opening fight of the evening,

a bantamweight contest between Chris Gutierrez and John Castaneda. Tough, tough scenes for Chris Gutierrez here being. Real quick, this will be at 45 due to the short notice. Oh, sorry. At 40, great call. Tough scenes for Gutierrez here. You know, guy with some promise to him. Getting the Pedro Munoz coming off the Frank Yeager win.

I think he was even ranked at that point in time. Pedro Munoz Song Yidong losses sort of drop him out of, I think he is no longer ranked. Let me confirm that. I'm like 90% sure that that is true. And I'm 100% sure now correct. He's no longer ranked. Been sort of a tough run. Was supposed to fight Javi Bosharat last.

year. Basharat withdrew. Fight never, uh, ended up fighting Kwong Lee instead. Obviously that would have been, that's just sort of a tough drop off in name recognition. So it's by Jean Matsamoto, uh, at this event, Jean Matzumoto instead gets, gets bumped over to be the king and the hero that my beautiful baby boy was against Rob Font, though he lost. I love Jean Masamoto. He will return. And so instead now, John Castaneta steps in, uh, steps in for him.

and Castaneta, you know, fine, four and three in the UFC. Like, he's lost to Danny Marcos's last summer, June, I think. I don't know what to make of this fight. I think Gutierrez is a better fighter. I think that he probably wins, but I don't have conviction in it. And so, like, part of me just wants to bet Gutierrez, as it feels like there's value there. But I haven't done enough digging to be like, he's definitely. better. I still probably

just going to bet on Chris Gutierrez. What I do have here, the over two and a half, I think, is extremely likely to hit Gutierrez's 9 and 5 hitting this over in the UFC career. The over one and a half is like almost a certifiable lock, but I don't

have that drop yet. So both of them have like, I think collectively they've missed the over one and a half like once in their UFC 10 years. So I think I might just take Chris Gutierrez. but you got any different feelings?

Is there a reason for me to be excited about this bout? Is there a reason to be excited? No, but I also had the initial feelings you had where, like, I'm leaning Gutierrez and I was surprised to see the odds. He's the underdog here. Cassinator was just booked last weekend for 140-pound catchweight against Douglas Silva-Diand-Droge. And Douglas Silva-Di-Androdge had the weight-cutting problem.

They had to cancel that bout. But, like, the dude, I know he's abandoned weight, but he just cut to 140 last weekend. Now it's at 145. I don't know how much he's truly cutting to make 145, but the whole back-to-back weight cut, despite how much it may be, is a little worrisome to me. I did try and look back and see if he ever fought in a state like California

where they released the fight night weights. He hasn't, so I was unable to see, like, what he weighs on fight night to kind of figure out how much he cuts. Is worth noting, though, Kastinata has had nine pro fights above the 135-pound mark, including as high as 165 pounds. So he could have the size advantage, but Gutierrez is three inches taller. So who knows, at 145 pounds, Gutierrez is 1 and O. He T-K-Oed Vince Morales with leg kicks in 2020 in the UFC.

Castaneda is 2 in 0 at 145. Both came in Combate nine years ago, so hasn't fought there recently. Worth noting Gutierrez was taken down in two of his three UFC losses, and Castaneda has taken down his last four opponents, including three of them, three times each. But like we were saying, even with that stat, I do feel like Gutierrez is the more skilled fighter, should be able to get it done. He is the dog. I mean, I'm riding with Gutierrez here.

He's plus 100 right now. I'm probably going to take him, which means I'm probably then, well, because you are a bad person, I will now have a bet on every fight. I blame you entirely for that. I do want to note because you brought up the size discrepancy. Really interesting in that Gutierrez is going to be three inches. caller is giving up four inches of reach. So there's just not something that usually happens, but a curious, a curious thing that is

occurring for us this weekend. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the end of UFC 313 discussion. Luke, before we say our goodbyes and, you know, finish UFC 313 as we make our way inexorably to what I'm calling. I know. The worst event in the history of modern UFC. UFC fight night, Votori De Leads Day 2, aka UFC Apex 104, truly, I truly and honestly with my whole chest, believe this to be the worst card ever put together in the modern UFC on paper.

Before we get to any of that, what else do you, anything else? Final thoughts about UFC 313 before we say our goodbyes. I mean, it should be a fun card, dude. I'm looking forward to it. like you said, some people want to bill it a two-fight card. I think it's a little more than that. There's a bunch of fun fights on it. Josh Van, Ray Saruya,

Bruno Faheda, Armand Petrosian, like, we're going to have fun on it. I am doing a full card watch-along main card minute on YouTube. If anyone wants to go check that out, I'd appreciate it. Jed, appreciate you, as always, for having me. And let's win some money, man. I mean, I desperately hope to win money.

Now that I have bets on every fight, there's 0% chance, and I'll just dig the whole further. but if all of the bets hit, suddenly I'll be out of the hole that I've already dug myself. So that would be pretty cool. If I could just one time go undefeated. But most importantly,

if freaking Curtis blades could get the W so the climb can continue. Because the beautiful part about the climb loop is this year going poorly for me. Couldn't give a shit less because the climb is alive. If I lose that, I'm going to stare deep and long. into the bottom of a bottle after that.

But thank you for joining me for UOC 313. We got another pay-per-view coming up in, what, like, a month? So, you know what? Let's just go ahead and tentatively put you on the books for 314. Talk about Volcanowski-Lopez. You can skip all the just rancid-ass cars between now and then and save up all your good takes for that. People can, of course, check you out on Maincar Minute,

your YouTube, your socials. They can check you out at... Morning Combat. And I'm trying to think if there's any other place that I missed. And I forget anywhere, Luke. No, Main Car Minute, Morning Kombat, morning combat live, Mondays and Fridays, 11 a.m. Main Car Minute, I do weekly bet breakdowns

and watchalongs for pretty much every fight night. And you all know you can check me at MAAfighting.com. You know my socials. We are doing our UFC 313 watchalong. Me and Mike Heck got a couple special things planned. Going to be super fun. And then we'll have four weeks of terrible. But each of those four weeks,

I will be here. If I can convince somebody to be a guest for next week, I will, but I don't know that I'm going to be able to pull that one off. Hopefully not. Hopefully so. If not, thank you all for listening. I truly appreciate it. And see y'all next week. Love you.