MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Alex Pereira Score His Third Knockout Win Of 2024 Against Khalil Rountree Jr.?

Episode Date: October 2, 2024

UFC 307 takes place this Saturday in Salt Lake City, headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr, and also featuring a women's bantamweight title fight bet...ween Raquel Pennington and Julianna Peña. On top of that, there are 10 other big fights so No Bets Barred is back to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew takes a deep dive on all 12 fights at UFC 307 and his favorite bets for each. Topics discussed include Rountree's chances at pulling off the upset, Peña's quest to become the most improbably two-time UFC champion ever, Jose Aldo being the GOAT, and plenty more. Tune in for episode 102 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:58 The Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? we are back for another edition of No Betts Bard. I am your host, Jed Mishu, and you may be thinking to yourself self. Jed promised me something new, something different, something exciting this week. And yourself is correct. I am a liar and I am sorry for that. We had plans to unveil the new video version of No Betts Barred this week to coincide with UFC 307,
Starting point is 00:01:39 which is what we are here to talk about. But about 20 minutes ago, some tech. technical difficulties rendered that impossible to get done on the timeline we needed it done by. So we will wait potentially another week, but we may end up holding just till 308, just to make it be with a big event, not the lesser event that's happening after this. Because, you know, that's just how we want to do it. But nonetheless, we are still giving you a podcast this week because, again, of the technical difficulties did not have time to find a co-host to join me on this journey.
Starting point is 00:02:13 so you're just stuck with me, but you know what it is. I'm going to give you all my favorite bets. We're going to have some gimmicks. We're going to have some fun. We'll get out of here fairly quickly because it's only one of me. I know you guys don't want to hear me talk for hours and hours. Even though, frankly, UFC 307 is a damn good card, and that is the car we were talking about this Saturday, Delta Center,
Starting point is 00:02:34 in beautiful Salt Lake City, Utah. The UFC returns to Utah, and then it returns with Alex Pereira for the third time this year. The UFC light heavyweight champion is defending his title against Khalil Roundtree Jr. Two title fights, because in the Co-main, we also have the first women's bantamweight defense of newly crowned champion, Raquel Rocky Penning, taking on Giuliana Pena, the former champ. And then honestly, just a whole host of other banging fights. I mean, this is, at least on paper, the name value you are getting on this card is substantial. I mean, your feature fight is Jose Aldo, one of the greatest of all time. a two-time UFC champion retiring in the prelims.
Starting point is 00:03:17 There's just a whole lot of stuff to happen. And frankly, I think there's a lot of good value on this card. So let's not waste any time. Let's hop right into things. And we start, as always, with a brief recap of the last time you heard my dulcetones. And they were talking about an event that I kind of wish we weren't talking about, UFC Paris. It was a horrific outing for me, my second losing week in a row. and this was a big losing week.
Starting point is 00:03:44 I ended up losing a little under three units. I almost reverse swept myself. I had six bets down, missed on five of them. The one bit I did it was at least a big underdog. And Atomouikano, I had him straight money line. And so he clogged back some so it wasn't a truly entirely calamitous defeat. But we are on a cold streak right now. icy, icy cold.
Starting point is 00:04:12 Still up on the year, but just hanging on, barely in the black right now. And I got to tell you, there's some risky options. I have taken what I think are good bets this week, but a little bit of risk involved as well as you'll see. So let's dive right into your main event.
Starting point is 00:04:29 Light-heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira, Kalila, Roundtree, Jr. The setup of this fight is it's weird. Like, let's just be honest. It's Perrier's third time fighting this year. and he's fighting a guy who nobody believes really quote unquote deserves this. I got a lot of respect for Kaliloh Rountry.
Starting point is 00:04:47 I, in fact, was arguing. Let's just have Kalilowrowntree step in at 300 just because he's on an impressive five-fight win streak. It would be fun. He's the glory killer. You know, we could do this, but, you know, Magmenekelaev is the guy who deserves this opportunity. Not happening. And in a lot of ways, this feels like it is a set up fight for Pereira, right? Like, Cleo Runtry is going to give him a kickboxing fight and just baseline you assume that the prayer wins it.
Starting point is 00:05:16 I have a big breakdown of this fight coming to SB Nation this week. Go ahead and check it out if you want kind of the minutia take. But the short version is that this fight is the perfect encapsulation of the meme where it's like, The Idiot says this, and then there's the parabola up and where all the people in the middle are saying, actually, it's a little more nuanced and blah, blah, blah, blah. and you get to the other end of the parabola, and it's the genius says the same thing the idiot says. And that's my feeling on this fight,
Starting point is 00:05:45 because the idiots and the geniuses recognize that if you're in a kickboxing bout with Alex Pereira, you are going to lose the kickboxing bout with Alex Pereira. And the idea that Kalilera-Romri can win this fight is true. We can always win a fight. Kali-Renry hits extremely hard. He has defeated three glory kickboxers in the UFC already. this is the end boss for the glory killer himself.
Starting point is 00:06:12 But I just think Pereira is far too dangerous of a fighter. If Cleo Rootree comes out and just says, we're going to solve this in the first 60 seconds or less, flip the coin, roll the dice, see what happens. I honestly think that might be his best chance. Because if he gets into a protracted kickboxing battle, Pereira is a better judge of range and distance than him. He has better distance weapons.
Starting point is 00:06:37 His low kick should be extremely effective against Kaliou. And if they get inside, Kaleo has a couple of bad habits, including dropping his right hand. That's just death against the left of Pereira. I think if Klua wants to win, he's got to hit him early, and he probably has to make it a little ugly right out of the gate and just see what happens.
Starting point is 00:06:56 But you don't predict that to be the outcome. That being said, the odds here are very long. Pereira minus 460. come back on round trees plus 360 and you're not getting a ton of extra value if you're looking at Pereira by K.O. props inside the distance, etc. I kind of toyed with those.
Starting point is 00:07:13 And then I said, Jed, what are we doing here? There's nobody alive who loves a gimmick parlay more than you. And there are two very obvious gimmick parleyes on this card. And I'm going to take it. And one of those parley is a critical piece. It's a two-leg parley and Alex Pereira
Starting point is 00:07:28 is one of the legs on it. So he is currently a parley piece for me along with one other fighter who we'll talk about when we get to. But I would also say that if you're looking at the unders here, like the under three and a half, both of these guys are guys who get things done very, very quickly. And I think the nature of this fight, I'd be surprised if we saw the championship rounds, frankly. And so I think if you're looking for a parley piece, you can. But for me, I just took Pereiro straight up in a gimmick parlay tying him with one other fighter on this card.
Starting point is 00:08:02 And that takes us to the co-main event, which as I mentioned, a women's bantamweight contest, a title contest between Rock Al Pinnington and Julianna Pena. Pennington is your favorite at minus 160 Pena, the comeback plus 140 for the former champ. And kind of the big thing to talk about with this fight is Penae probably doesn't deserve this title shot either. She is a former champion. She is the woman who dethroned Amanda Nunes, even if that did not last. Nunes reclaimed the belt in their rematch, but Pena has not won a fight in two years. I'm sorry, she has not competed in two years. She's been longer than she won a fight, and she has no wins over current UFC fighters.
Starting point is 00:08:43 Her big claim to fame is beating Nunez, who obviously retired is no longer competing. And so by most metrics, Pena is not the most deserving contender, but the texture of what women's ban on weight is right now, because Kayla Harrison is, they're still building her, going to get her one more fight, which we'll talk about. Pena gets to step in. She's boisterous. She's going to sell the fight. It's a rock-solid co-made event.
Starting point is 00:09:08 And I will be honest, I think Pena has a chance here. I think she's getting a little bit undervalued because people don't like her. She is not the most likable individual. She is not very good at managing that aspect. Or I guess perhaps she is. Maybe that's what she's looking to do is kind of get that Xbox heat around her. But I think as a result of it, People are underestimating her.
Starting point is 00:09:31 I famously am a man who picked her to beat a man to Noon as the first time and one of like two people who did. A little bit of that. I might be riding a little bit with the girl who did me so right that once upon a time. But also, I think Rocky Pennington is a very, very solid fighter. But it's hard for me. She doesn't do anything amazing. She is just solid across the board. and Pena at least has unbelievable durability and willpower.
Starting point is 00:10:02 She is not like a good striker, but she refuses to believe that she is not. And it's honestly a bitter drink is two plus C in her game in that way. And the Homer Simpson style of, I don't know that I'm not good at this. And I don't know that I'm getting hurt. I'm just going to keep coming. I'm going to keep pressing. I'm going to keep doing this. And it makes her pretty effective, particularly as fights go on.
Starting point is 00:10:23 I think the altitude maybe could even play a role. here, but mostly I do think she has an advantage on the ground. It's not massive. Painton's rock solid all around, can defend herself down there, but I do think Pena has the wrestling in her bag, and Pinnington, she gives up takedown. She's not the best defensive wrestler. And so we're talking about Pena getting a couple of takedowns here, pressure on the feet. Pinnington isn't going to knock her out, and so I think there's a real chance that Pena can sneak out a win here, just, you know, snag three rounds and a decision. And so I am on painy at plus 155s.
Starting point is 00:11:00 What I got her at, I would still play her at the current odds. You can find her at various things around that 140 number. But mostly what I'm excited about is there's a parley that I have. Outside of the gimmick parlay with Perea, I have two parleyes this weekend. And one of them is I'm going to feel like a real idiot if it doesn't hit because I'm going very heavy on it.
Starting point is 00:11:22 And the first leg of it is the over one and a half. of this fight. It is minus 1,100, so minus 11,100 for the over one and a half. It's a steep price for a parlay leg, but there's a reason. 17 of Pinnington's 18 UFC fight, she has gone over the one and a half number. Eight of Pena's 10 U of C fight, she's gone over one and a half. Neither of them have gone under it in like a decade or something insane. These women mostly go to decision, and they certainly go past seven and a half minutes
Starting point is 00:11:54 in a fist fight, I believe that is extremely likely to happen here. So the first leg of a massive parlay bet I have down is this one. And now that we've got the main and the combing out, we've got the rest of the car. There's like 12 other fights. But we're going to break those down in a second because for now we've got to pay the bills. We're going to, you know, go let the ads read. We'll pop on back in a second. We'll see you in a minute.
Starting point is 00:12:18 We're back, y'all. Thank you for sticking around. Thank you for, you know, listening to the people who love us. because we love them. But you know who I really love? Do you know who I love? Oh, baby, do you know who I love? I love them the most.
Starting point is 00:12:32 I'm talking, of course, Jose Frickin' Aldo, who is taking on Mario Bautista in the feature fight of the evening. Let me just start by saying justice was done. I am so proud and happy because a week ago on various MMAfighting.com, great website,
Starting point is 00:12:50 uh, you videos and podcasts, I was lambasting. the UFC for having Jose Aldo buried on the prelims. This is one of these six greatest fighters who have ever competed in the sport of MMA unequivocally. This is, I mean, has a legitimate case to be called the goat and you're burying them on the prelims.
Starting point is 00:13:11 It's nonsense. Cooler heads prevailed. This man is the feature fight of the evening. He is going back to Utah where the last time he was here, Marab de Válezhevili stole one from him. Maybe he didn't, but that kind of tells you. Mara Balthy, the current Bantamway champion, played a hell against Joseo at altitude
Starting point is 00:13:29 because this dude is a damn good fighter, and this fight doesn't require much of a breakdown. If you wanted me to give you the breakdown, I could tell you that, yes, you know, Josaldo's old and Bautista does have that high volume stuff that you want to see to compete against him, but on the other side of that, Joseo is the greatest defensive fighter who's probably ever lived.
Starting point is 00:13:50 He's extremely good at slowing fights down. Bautista loves to get takedown, to mix in. He has almost a 0% chance of landing them against Jose. The leg kicks won't work against Jose. He is just going up against a guy who is battle tested against an entirely different breed of a fighter. The strength of scheduled difference between these two is vast.
Starting point is 00:14:11 Jose Aldo is not at the peak of his powers, but the fact that this man at his age is still coming out and still as good as he is is remarkable. And I genuinely feel outside of my personal. inclinations that he should be the favorite in this bout. And with my personal inclinations, it doesn't matter. There are only so many times I have left in my life to bet on Josealdo, and I will avail myself of every single one of them because he means that much to me. This was the easiest bet. You could have chiseled this in the side of Plymouth Rock. I am betting Josealdo till the cows come home. I obviously have a bet on him. I got him at plus 140. I would
Starting point is 00:14:50 obviously bet him at this price as well. Your next main card fight, you know, big implications. This is what I'm saying when I am saying to you guys that this is an exceptional fight card. Fourth fight of the evening, Kayla Harrison making her sophomore appearance in the UFC taking on Ketland Vieira in another woman's band-and-weight match. And realistically, we all know how this fight's going. You don't need my breakdown because you know what this fight is.
Starting point is 00:15:17 Ketland Vieira is a very solid fighter. Kayla Harrison, the battle she has is with the scale. The battle is not with anything else. It is with the scale. If she can make 135, 135, 136 with the Grace Pound, which we've already seen her do once,
Starting point is 00:15:33 I believe, is a replicable thing for her. Then Ketland Viera just doesn't really have the physicality. And Kellenvier is a physical fighter, but she does not have the physicality to stand up against Kayla Harrison, in this weight class. The question is entirely,
Starting point is 00:15:49 can Ketland Vieira survive 15 minutes? Can she make it to the bell? Or is this another Kayla Harrison kind of demolition? And I lean towards that. I am extremely high on Harrison. I believe she is the future Bannonweight champion. Just whenever she ends up getting the crack, I suspect it will be after this fight.
Starting point is 00:16:07 I like Viera a lot. Viera is a really good test to see like, okay, she beat Holly Home in her UFC debut, but Holly Home is certainly not in her prime years. Vier's probably right around there, but I think Kayla Harrison's got this one for her. So I am taking Kayla Harrison inside the distance because the price is so different.
Starting point is 00:16:27 She's minus 650 favorite straight up. The comeback on Vierrez plus 475. Minus 650 is just, it's a healthy, healthy number. But inside the distance, you're getting a little better than coin flip odds there. And I would say that this is probably around coin flip or maybe even a little more in favor of her getting the fence. finish. And so we'll take the little, the baby bit of value there and just have some fun with this
Starting point is 00:16:51 fight. And then that brings us to the opening main card fight. Roman Delizzi taking on Kevin Holland in a middleweight matchup. This is a very weird fight just because Deleizze is coming off moving up to light heavyweight on short notice where he beat Anthony Smith, former title challenger, top ranked guy. And now he's coming back down to fight Kevin Holland. And he's coming back down to fight Kevin Holland, who is a ranked welterweight. And despite that, Kevin Holland is actually your betting favorite at minus 160. The comeback on Dolizzea at plus 140. I don't really know what to make of this fight because of the circumstances surrounding it.
Starting point is 00:17:33 The things I will say is I do think, I think the fight probably goes long because Deleese does not get finished all that often. And in general, Holland doesn't either. And I think if it goes long, that does face. Deleuze. Kevin Holland has never been great at winning decisions that he does not have a terrific track record with the judges. Deleuze physically is the larger man, not actually height or like reach wise because Holland has always been a very tall, lanky fighter. But he, this is a robust man, whereas Holland is going to be giving up some pounds come actual fight night. Holland is, you know,
Starting point is 00:18:11 certainly the flashier striker. It's hard for me to pick one of the other. is massively ahead in that particular phase of the game. And I kind of just think that this should be a coin flip fight. And instead you're getting the odds pretty clearly skewed towards Kevin Holland, perhaps this because of his popularity. Perhaps people are just seeing something I don't. But like I said, I think this should be a pick-um. And so with the odds as they are, I am firing a little value bet in on Deleadze.
Starting point is 00:18:38 You know, if Holland comes out, does Holland things, he's talking trash to him, he's jabbing him up, he's making it look easy i'll feel a little silly but i think there's some value in deletes a here and so i'm going to go ahead and take him and that is the end of our main card and so at the end of our main card seems like as good a time as any we have how many we've got like eight more fights seven more fights to break down this is as good a time as any to hit our last break pay the bills we'll come back and uh then we'll we'll run through the rest of this and you'll get to hear the rest of my fantastic parlays. Be back in just a second.
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Starting point is 00:19:54 Artists of all genres are welcome, and I've been joined by some pretty amazing folks, like glass animals. I guess that was the idea, was to try something personal and see what happened. And Japanese breakfast. I thought that the most surprising thing I could offer was an album about joy. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts. Oh, and remember, so much happens before the chorus. Okay, everybody, we are back and we are on to the prelims and your prelims main event.
Starting point is 00:20:24 The go-home fight as we head into the pay-per-view portion is Stephen Wonderboy Thompson taking on Joaquin. Buckley-Buckley is a minus 200 favorite over Wonderboy. And I think that this fight should be fairly straightforward for all parties involved. I think everybody knows the score here, you at home, Wonderboy, Buckley. the book is out on Stephen Thompson once upon a time he was a better defensive wrestler he has gotten older it is just not he's not as good as it as he used to be perhaps part of it is reaction time dropping you know perhaps the game is just elevated and he is not hard to say exactly why but we have seen the method to beating wonder boy at this point is to
Starting point is 00:21:09 shoot doubles take him down and control him and walking buckley can absolutely do that Like he is, I would not say that he is, you know, an A plus unbelievable wrestler, but we saw him to do it to Vicente Lucke. We have seen him be able to pull that off, particularly since dropping down to Walterway. He is on the rise. He should be the favorite. And frankly, I think he should be a little bit bigger of a betting favorite, because if Thompson can't stop the takedowns, he's going to lose.
Starting point is 00:21:38 And I've just seen nothing from Wonderboy's game at this point to believe that. If Buckley gets silly and just tries to strike with him, Maybe Buckley gets drawed. But again, I even think that's less likely than in previous points in time. Wonderboy was one of the 10, you know, best fighters in his weight class in the world, probably one of the three or four at his absolute peak. Like a guy right there on the cusp of winning a title, never got over the hump. But he's not the best we've ever seen.
Starting point is 00:22:08 And the best we have ever seen of Walking Buckley will be when we see him on Saturday night. He is still on the rise. We are betting Buckley at minus 200. We looked at a couple of the props. You know, we looked at a Buckley by decision. I don't think he gets a finish. But you're not even getting that much value. You're talking about a plus 125, something like that.
Starting point is 00:22:25 And so if you're laying, you know, one unit, you're getting half of that back. If you're laying one unit on the decision prop, which is fraught with more peril, you're not getting that much extra. I'm just taking the minus 200. I feel comfortable with it. And that brings us to a women's straw weight contest. as Marina Hadriguez takes on Yasmin Lucindo, and everybody should go ahead and place their wagers on Yasmin Lucindo right now because I don't understand the line. And longtime listeners as No Betts Barred will know that that is the jinx of all jinxes.
Starting point is 00:23:00 When I say I do not understand the line, that means that fighter is about to win. The fighter who is favored, Vegas has it pegged, and I don't know a goddamn thing. Happens every single time, but this one I was pretty surprised to see Rodriguez not installed as the favorite. She's obviously just the more accomplished fighter in their career. She has been around the block for a while, so maybe there's certainly some of that, but Lysindo is going to need takedowns to win this fight, I think, and Rodriguez is a fairly decent wrestler. Not a great one, but she has been able to get up off her feet when she has been getting taken down. And I think that if Rodriguez shouldn't be the favorite, this fight should be a coin flip.
Starting point is 00:23:45 And so again, either way, I feel there's value on Rodriguez and I'm taking. And now you might see why I'm concerned. I have a lot of underdog. I have a lot of plus money action thus far. And, you know, obviously I think I'm a genius. And I'm smarter than Las Vegas. But nobody is smarter than Las Vegas. Just remember that kid.
Starting point is 00:24:03 So hopefully I'll spike some of these. But again, I'm on Rodriguez. And also, leg two, ladies and gentlemen, of. the ultra parlay shout out to my boy Connor Burks we're doing the over one and a half again on this one that is minus 600 so not as
Starting point is 00:24:21 pricey as the minus 11 that you got for the co-main event still very very high however in their history Rodriguez has hit over one and a half in 12 of UFC of 13 UFC fights Lucindo all four of her fights have gone over the one and a half these two women are not big
Starting point is 00:24:37 finishers and they're certainly not quick finishers I think minus 600 is a gift of a line. It is leg two of the parley that I am very, very heavy on. We'll keep things rolling. We go down to Austin Hubbard taking on Alexander Hernandez, and I'll keep this short and simple. Hernandez is a minus 190 favorite.
Starting point is 00:24:58 The comeback on Hubbard plus 165, and this is a stone cold pass for me. Hernandez has lost four of his past five fights. I would say that certainly at his peak, he's a better fighter than Hubbard. It's hard to know where he's at when you're on a run like that. Hubbard coming back into the UFC off of the Ultimate Fighter Redemption or whatever they called that season, picked up a win and I don't remember who was over, frankly. You know, in general, I do think Alexander Hernandez is a better fighter, but at this price was the guy who's lost four or five, you just don't do it. You just don't make that bet. I got plenty of other action. I don't need this one. So the pick is Hernandez. The bet is a stone cold
Starting point is 00:25:40 pass, which then takes us on down the line to Caesar Almeida, taking on Ijo Potieri, the doorlist in a middleweight contest on the ESPN news or plus the middle section of the prelims opener. And this is the first parley leg, so not of the three-piece mega parley, but of the gimmick parley, which we are calling the glory parley. Alex Pereira famously a two-time glory kickboxing champion. His now teammate, Cesar Almeida, duty fought multiple times in kickboxing in glory,
Starting point is 00:26:17 came over to the UFC off-contender series. He is a minus 3.85 favorite over Potieri. I think he's going to get the win because glory kickboxing is like the third strongest style in mixed martial arts right now behind being a hoss. And I'm trying to think what number two is, because I have this ranked out, but I don't have it at the top of my head so we'll breeze past it. Anyway, we're taking the teammates.
Starting point is 00:26:39 There is another gimmick parlay. Obviously, you can do the Pennington parlay. You can do Raquel and Tisha Pennington. I'm not doing the Pennington parley because I am taking Juliana Pena in the co-mainte. But I think the Pinnington Parlay rolls right off the tongue. It's great. Still, sign me up for the glory parley because I will be winning glory and money and victory fronds and delicious fruits that will be handed out. by my adoring fans as I celebrate a tremendous parley.
Starting point is 00:27:11 Two of those likes together pays out about minus 175-ish, something in that range. So that's it. And we can go on to the early prelims where Ryan Span will take on Ovin St. Prue in a light heavyweight contest that no one knows why it exists. Very simply, you know, Ovin St. Prue, he did get a win over Canadian Zuchu's last time out, but he's 41 years old. you can't believe in the man at all, which is probably why he's a plus 2-10 underdog
Starting point is 00:27:41 to Ryan Span who's minus 250. By the same token, I can't trust Ryan Span. Ryan Span has slipped on the banana peel, stepped on the rake, let me down more times than I can count. I would like to believe that he'll put it all together because he's got some tools,
Starting point is 00:27:57 and he should win this fight, but you just can't believe in it. At least I can't. So a stone cold pass for me, I will pick Span straight up, but I would not touch this with your money, much less mine. And that brings us to arguably one of the most important bouts of the evening, absolutely buried on the early, early prelims. I'm talking about Carla Asparza taking on Tisha Pennington, women's strawweight contest, a rematch of their former battle in Tuff. You may remember, Carla Sparza won that season of Tough became the UFC's inaugural strawwave champion, later reclaimed that belt.
Starting point is 00:28:35 a two-time UFC champion in her retirement fight, because that's what this is. It is critical. She has said, this is going to be it. I'm going to settle my business with Tisha Pendington. Then I'll walk off into the sunset. I believe that we're talking about a future Hall of Famer buried on the prelims, but that's neither here nor there that has nothing to do with the money we're trying to make on this fight.
Starting point is 00:28:57 And let me tell you how to do it. You don't. Because part of me wants to bet Carlos Barza here. I mean, Pennington career and historically has never been a great defensive wrestler. She's been a serviceable one. As far as it was able to kind of take advantage that in the tough house. Could probably have some success there as well. Also, when you add in, it's her retirement fight, you know, you want to believe that that's going to give her superpowers that, you know, in the words of Gene Hackman in the replacement, there is no tomorrow for her and that makes her a very dangerous person.
Starting point is 00:29:32 also it could just be that she's not even ready to go out there in battle you never know how something like that the emotions the adrenaline dump will affect you it's very hard to kind of couch that and so if i were betting it would be a dogg or pass i would bet on the vibes for a spars in her final fight but instead i'm passing on that what i am doing this is this is leg three i teased it this leg three of the greatest parley ever assembled we're calling it to connor burke's shout out because that's what it is it's the over one and a half in this fight The three over one and a half in the three women's fights that are Kayla Harrison, Ketland Vieira, this one's a minus 1,000. You parlay all those legs up, you come out to a minus 250. That's still a big number. But let me tell you, in this fight, 14 of 15 fights for Carla Spars in the UFC have gone over one and a half. And 14 of 16 for Tisha Pennington have gone over one and a half. If you collectively do all of it, it is 90% of the,
Starting point is 00:30:32 the time the women involved in this parley compete they go over one and a half you're getting minus two 50 odds there's just a big ton of value right there i have put a substantial amount of money on this one you know it pays out it pays out it pays out but i do believe it's going to pay out and it shouldn't even be that sweaty knock on wood praise be hold up let's hope let's see what where it goes and then that takes us to the first fight of the evening the final fight we we are going to talk about it here it's court mcgee taking on tim means in a welterweight contest and we're ending with a whimper here because to me this is just a very obvious stay away this is two old guys scrap in i think the matchmaking itself is fine in this regard uh but means is lost
Starting point is 00:31:19 four or five McGee's on a three fight losing streak they're both pushing 40 if they're not actually already 40 at this point and means is a sizable favorite a two to one favorite minus 200 McGee at plus 170. I can't trust anyone. Like, in my head, maybe McGee actually has a little bit of value here. But you just, you can do other things with that money. You don't have to live a little with this bet here. And that's certainly how I have gone with it because I'll just be tuning in to watch this as a fan.
Starting point is 00:31:50 Can't trust either guy at this stage of their career. And that's it, ladies and gentlemen. That is the entirety of UFC 307. Like I said, it's a damn good card, man. Like if you're in Salt Lake in the area, if you can at this point, I would 100% go see this card. I think I would like to see Jose Aldo compete in person before I die or before he retires for real. So if you have the opportunity, I would strongly avail yourself. And let me tell you what's coming next because what's coming next?
Starting point is 00:32:23 We're back to the apex baby. Next weekend, Tetsuro Tyra gets his shot at a former. title challenger and Brandon Royval at UFC Apex 98, I believe is this one. A couple of other fights here that, you know, Grant Dawson competing. Denny Rodriguez, Alex Morono is fun, but that's what I'm saying. Enjoy the fight we're getting the fights we're getting this weekend because next weekend, we will not be nearly as lucky as we are this weekend. And I got to tell you, I couldn't be more lucky to have all you listening to me.
Starting point is 00:32:59 Thank you for doing that. I hope I didn't steer you wrong. Rest assured that if I did know that I am financially hurting about it worse than you, and I'm spiritually and emotionally hurting worse, because I want all of you to feel the same success that I hope to feel after Sunday. And that's it, ladies and gentlemen. Until then, keep it locked to mibating.com for all your coverage this weekend and just for everything in general.
Starting point is 00:33:22 And hopefully we'll have the new no-bets part out soon. But until that happens, thanks for listening. Love y'all. With Instacard, you get groceries that over-deliver, so you can over-share your preferences. Want russet potatoes with no brown spots? You got it. Want turnips that look light but feel heavy? Easy. Want honey-crisp apples that are firm, green, and definitely not Macintosh like last year when you lost the fall bake-off to perfect Penelope Johnson? Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it.
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