MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Alexander Volkanovski Beat Diego Lopes A Second Time At UFC 325?

Episode Date: January 28, 2026

For the first time since 2021, the UFC is giving us back-to-back numbered events. This Saturday, the UFC returns to Australia for UFC 325, the immediate follow-up to last week's UFC 324. Looking to make an impression at the start of their new Paramount deal, the UFC is bringing another fight that figures to provide big action as featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski rematches Diego Lopes for the title, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Action Network's Billy Ward to dive into all things UFC 325. Topics discussed include what has changed from the first fight between Volkanovski and Lopes just 10 months ago, if Benoit Saint Denis can keep rolling against Dan Hooker, whether Tai Tuivasa has anything left in the tank, the four Road to UFC fights that start off the prelims, the continuation of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 147 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Billy Ward: @PsychoWard586 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard. I am your host, Jedmishuvennymed.com. We probably already know that. And thanks for tuning in because we are back, full back into the grind, ladies and gentlemen. We had six weeks off.

And it's not going to be that long. We've got another break coming up here in just a little bit. But we are back to immediate back-to-back paper views. I'm still calling them pay-per-views because just because you don't pay for them in America doesn't mean the rest of the world is getting off with that Paramount Plus subscription. Last week was UFC 324 to break the seal.

This week, we are heading to Australia for UFC 325. And a different guest for you. I mean, not that different. You know them pretty well, frankly. It's a wonderful Billy Ward of Action Network. Billy, you haven't been on for a pay-per-view in a while, and it felt it felt bad to make you come on for not. We got two pretty decent cards to start the year. I figured let's split the difference.

Let's get you for one of them. And UFC 325, the, you've returned to Australia. How are you doing? How you been? We talked a little off air, but let the people know how you're doing things going on in your life and your level of excitement for this weekend. Yeah, I'm glad you had me on for this one. I spent a ton of time with the road to UFC tournament. both before this one and this week.

So very excited to talk about that. Would have had less to offer you on 324. Yeah, me personally, I was telling you before, got my brown belt since I've been on the air really anywhere, so that was exciting. Continuing to grind and train. Took the UFC hiatus there to get myself in the gym. Try to stay sharp as best I can,

because it gets tough, as you know, Jed, to do much of anything when we've got back-to-back. What used to be pay-per-views, now numbered events. and I'm going to take this soapbox real quick to offer my PSA that I stole from the co-man event guys, which is when they try to charge us for the White House card, hold the line, don't pay. They're going to try it. If none of us buy it and fall for it, we'll get to keep doing this for free, or $8.99 a month, whatever it is. If we fall for it, they're going to keep pushing the line.

So I'm saying that to anyone who will listen. I agree in principle, though I don't think they're going to try and charge us for the White House card. I believe that that won't work. or some other card down the line. I think they will do it down the line. I think this year is going to be a freebie because they've made such a big deal out of the shift. And then like immediately the story this past weekend was, man, a lot of commercials happening here. And so that's actually a good sort of jumping off point because let's talk about UFC 324 a little bit, Bill.

Our first paper, our first event, UFC event in six weeks. I had a bit of an up and down evening. How'd you fare? Same, finished officially down, got some live bets in there that really helped, and I'll be talking about that further on this card. It's trickier to live bet now. It seems like there's a little bit more of a delay with Paramount than there was with the SPN Plus. Fight pass always seemed a little bit faster,

but you can only watch the first few on Fight Pass now. So that will be a talking point, I think, for the next few weeks in the gambling community because it's a big chunk for me of keeping my head above the zero line there. So if that is harder to do and we're getting too much of a delay, that's going to be tricky. I didn't do any live bets. It's not entirely true. I didn't do any live bets, live bets. I did make one wager during the card because I failed the climb immediately.

We were starting 2026 off with the three-legged climb last week. That climb was Waldo Cretace Acosta, Natalia Silver-Rosnam Yunis over two and a half, and the third leg was a table of Gautier by knockout. Immediately Gotea failed us, and so I just re-racked in the middle of the event. So we are two legs up on version 11 of the climb now with one immediate burn, which I felt stupid about because even beforehand,

I was like, I shouldn't do this. And then everybody I talked to was just like, it's very easy, why wouldn't you? And I didn't trust my gut, and that's what you get. The rest of the card, though, up and down, I did so bad in 20, 2025 that any victory right now I'm pleased with.

And so I finished up a little bit over one unit, primarily because Justin Gachie was a two to one underdog and cashed out for me. Because other than that, I had a bit of a rough go. But we do finish ahead. So we are in the green to start 2026. I do not know if that will be the case coming through because Billy, I have a confession to make. I have something I need to get off my chest.

I've done I've no bets for this card not that I'm not going to make some bets I've I've made zero plans at this point and so this is going to be a little different as we're going through this card you know I have some inklings I've looked at the lines I have some ideas but I want to talk this through and we are going to build my betting slate on this very show especially as you you know apparently are the road to UFC Wunderkinderkind. I don't know shit about it. I'm prepared to not talk about those four fights, frankly, which also I learned today, Billy, technically, technically do not count as UFC belt, which is weird as shit to me. Yeah, and they did that with the Shanghai card where it was mostly road to UFC, then they just threw a couple that did count as UFC, and then the very next night.

I don't understand why we do it this way, and we pretend that the ultimate fighter on the house is exhibition, but that last one, even though it's part of the tournament, counts as a UFC fight. It doesn't really matter. I mean, two people are in there trying to fight. It doesn't exactly matter what we call it, except to them because it probably means they're getting paid less money. But that's a different topic. And I don't, well, I haven't confirmed this, but allegedly they may also not be eligible for the same bonus structure that is with the UFC.

Now, that is not confirmed. I'm sure we'll get a little more clarity on that as fight week goes on. but I don't know that they are eligible for the performance bonuses, and now the UFC's institute, the new finish bonuses. I don't know if those fall under this as well. I heard, again, unconfirmed, that John Anick and crew are not even going to be doing the call for these four fights. It's just a super weird situation.

I don't really know what to make of it. But I'm glad that you're going to have insight for us. I'm sorry, the last part warms my heart, because Michael Kiesa and Lorisenko, who did most of the previous tournament, did a tremendous job, and I enjoyed that so much. The more we can have those guys and not D.C. and Rogan giggling about people that they've clearly never watched fight before, the better for me. I will say that is...

Obviously, not Rogan and Sidney, but yeah. That is a benefit because for sure, like, there's just zero percent chance that Bissing and Cormier have done the tape study to tell us a lot about, you know, dumb Marfan or whatever. So we will get to all that in due time, though. Let us dive into this Saturday's card. UFC 325 going down in Sydney at Kudos, Kudos, however you say that, bank arena.

The return of featherweight champion Alexander Volcanozky in quite possibly the most decried title fight I can remember. The dominant storyline from people, coming into this week, Billy, is not about the title fight between Volcanovsky and Diego Lopez. It is the various parties involved defending this fight by saying, if you're Dana White, don't watch it. If you're Volcanovsky, I just fight who they tell me to. If you're Diego Lopez, complain to the UFC. When the dominant story is, why is this happening?

Something is gone to miss, but that is the case for this weekend, as Alessander Volcanovsky makes the first defense of his recently re-won featherweight championship that means, I don't know. I don't know what it means, but it doesn't mean nothing against the guy he beat to reclaim the vacant title, Diego Lopez. They fought less than a year ago. In fact, last April at UFC 314, Volk won a unanimous decision. He is, Volk enters this fight on the one-fight winning streak, obviously. having lost Elliott to Purr before that. Two and three over his past five.

Lopez, four and one, the one being a loss of Okunovsky, but he rebounded with a knockout win over Jean Silva at Nocha UFC in September. And one of the better fights, better comebacks, better knockouts of the year, in a fight that had a lot of layers to it and earned him another shot at this title. Billy, let's dive into the main event. I guess let's start there. How do you feel about this fight happening, just in general? Yeah, I disagree slightly with your preamble here if we count interim title fights,

because last week was a less deserving title fight than this one when Armin is right there, not getting the shot. So I hear you, whether we count interim or not, I think, is the discussion there. Gichi didn't truly deserve it either, but that's neither here nor there now. The thing that really stood out to me about this one is that the line is almost exactly the same or has shifted slightly to Diego Lopez, despite him losing four or five rounds to Volcanovsky like less than a year ago. And I just can't understand how that logic works. I have not, you know, dove deep in any tape here, not that I think that'll tell me much.

I don't cover the main events over at Action Networks. That is Sean Zorillo who does those. So it's not a huge priority for me, but just kind of in principle, you dominate a guy four out of five rounds. Yeah, you got dropped in there, but he's had more than enough time to recover. why are you not a heavier favorite the second time? That just doesn't make any sense. It is definitely surprising. I thought, I genuinely thought before I showed up to this, like, Volk's going to be two to one.

I didn't think he'd be balloon up just because he's old. Like, he's just old. And so I wasn't like he's going to be minus 400, but I was like he's going to be a two to one favorite because the first five wasn't competitive, right? Like Lopez is huge and he has shown, you know, durability and a willingness to continue fighting even after getting his ass beep. But like mostly that fight was 23 minutes of Alexander Volcanovsky being a much better fighter than him. And a couple of Diego Lopez being big and strong and Volcanowski having to weather being an older man.

So I am very surprised by this line, even in. if Billy, I am coming out and saying, I have a feeling Diego Lopez is going to win this fight. That's based on just vibes because if you are a tape study guy, there's no reason to think that. Diego Lopez just has horrendous footwork. And like the true strength of his game is his grappling, but Volk is incredibly difficult to take down. Ask Islamakachev, who succeeded, but he's much bigger and much better fighter than. Diego Lopez is. And Diego Lopez only really has like two different things he does on the feed.

He's very wrote, very basic. He's just big and aggressive. And that that'll get you a lot of places, but not really against Volcanovsky. The concern is, of course, that Volcanovsky got dropped in the first one and he's not younger. Like, he's not getting any younger. And so I have some inkling that Diego Lopez actually might pull it off because it also just feels like what would happen here. right this i mean just so we're clear i'm giving a tremendous breakdown logic reason science

kind of just feels like everyone's making fun of how stupid this bout is it wouldn't it just sort of be funny if dago lopez hauled off and won the damn thing so i kind of think dago lopez is going to win that being said i think betting on dago lopez at plus one 15 which is basically what the odds are right now minus one forty five for a plus one 15 for lopez i think think that would be categorically insane. I think that if you are a logical person, there's clear value on the Volcanozky line. But since I've already made my stand that Diego Lopez is going to pull this off, Billy, what I'm looking at, again, I haven't made any bets, but what I'm looking at here

is a finish-only bet. So on Diego Lopez, because if Lopez wins, he's not going to decision, Volk. I think there is a zero percent chance, basically, that Diego Lopez wins a unanimous split whatever decision against Alexander Volcanovsky. And I also think it's deeply unlikely that Volcanovsky finishes Diego Lopez, given what we've seen, how durable he can be. And so I like the Diego Lopez finish only bet. If it goes to a decision, Volk wins, but we push the bet.

And if Lopez wins, minus 140 is the price I'm looking at right now at my book. So that's the one I'm circling. How do you feel about that? got any other thoughts on this one. I really like that. One of the first things I did this week was look at those markets. And I was looking at the other approach, you know, Volcanovsky decision only. Mine is 475.

So not going to be doing that. Yeah, that's a waste. That makes total sense to me because like, yeah, minus 475 for sure. Yeah. I mean, if you wanted to throw a little extra climb step two on there with that one, maybe the first one goes well, you do that before the main event. I don't know how we then even grade that as a climb piece because it might just be, I guess it could be a zero.

It's just push. It would be fine. Push it. But the other bet I like is Volk minus five and a half, it plus money. If he doesn't get finished, he probably wins at least four rounds pretty consistently. So it's kind of a way to approach that same angle, get slight plus money on who I view as the better fighter. In their first fight. I like locking that in, but.

In their first fight, he finished with plus nine on the points because he won four rounds, four rounds three two. So is that right? No, that's plus seven because he went plus three plus three plus one. So for the point spread. Because 4946, 49. I forgot about the 48, 47. Yeah.

There was one, there's one three, two. So it's still seven. That hits the, that cash is your plus five and a half. And yeah, I think like, this is not groundbreaking analysis. It's just like, dude, they fought a year ago. I've seen the only thing that makes me question how things will look is not that Diego Lopez has added to his game. It's like, Vogue is a year older?

Is that enough to sway the number? That's it. That's purely the answer. So also, Volcanovsky 11 and 1 is a betting favorite. So when Vegas backs him, he is a strong, strong contender to get the thing done. So I'm going to be circling Diego Lopez finish only prop. I started to have some success with those at the end of last year. And you're not getting great prices usually,

but it is nice to have a backstop that you feel really confident in. Because if Vogue finishes Lopez credit to him, that's just, I'll take the loss, man. Because otherwise, this is going to cash, or it's going to push. Moving on, Billy, we have a co-eathing. main event. That's pretty good. I'm not going to be out. Like, I'm, I'm pretty pumped about this co-main event as far as what it, the entertainment value it is going to deliver. It is Dan Hooker taking on Binwasandini in a lightweight contest. Hooker, betting underdog plus 250, the comeback or the favorite money on BSD minus 325. Hooker, three and two over his past five. He got submitted

by Amman Serukin last year in the last year last fall. And Benwazan, Deney after a tough little run put together a three-fight winning streak and his best performance arguably ever a knockout winner of Benile Darius at UFC 322. Benoit Sandini trying to like break into the ranks of legitimate lightweight contender Dan Hooker just trying to hold on for as long as he can maybe potentially earn a BMF title fight if he can get past BSD here. How are you feeling about this co-main event, Billy? It reminds me a lot of Arnold Allen versus Gene Silva last week with BSD playing the role of Gene Silva, except Dan Hooker is actually finishable, which is a crucial distinction here because Arnold Allen is so tough and durable, where I don't view Hooker that way. He took a lot of, not a ton of damage, you know, he ended up getting submitted, but kind of got worked by Armin.

That was two months ago, and I think he had some kind of injury coming out of that. It feels like he always had some kind of injury. He always is injured. Yeah, and that's fine when you're fighting lower level guys or guys that don't hit that hard. That is not BSD. BSD is a scary dude who can grapple. The grappling is a weakness for Hooker.

I was surprised that BSD inside the distance is only minus 130. I don't really see him winning a decision. So I like Benoit St. Denis to get a finish somewhere around minus 1.30. And then if you want to get crazy, if Dan somehow survives it, I don't mind a live bet on Hooker. We always worry about the cardio for St. Denis. I think he's in great shape. fight so aggressively that no matter how good a shape you're in, you can't keep that up for 15 minutes.

So that'll be the other angle if it looks like Hooker's going to survive, you know, round and a half, two rounds might come back and fire on him at Big Plus Money. I am glad that you said everything that you said because very transparently, this was the thing I was circling for the climb. Big supporter, Ben Wastondini. I have largely faded Dan Hooker, sometimes to my own cost, right? but this to me in my head this lines up very much as a fight that bin was on the knee should be able to win uh statistically dan hooker is actually a fairly good defensive wrestler but that sort of is misleading because obviously

armin took him down twice and then submitted him gamrod took him down five times you know like uh jalen turner took his ass down. He gets taken down when he is fighting real wrestlers. And largely also when he's getting taken down, they're mostly finishing him. Gamrot being the exception because it's Gamrot. You know, also Gamrod spent a lot of fight boxing him. And I think BSD, if he is forced to strike,

could at least be competent on the feet with Hooker, but I mostly think he is going to be able to get takedowns. he shoots a million of them he's a very solid wrestler and a dangerous dangerous dude on the floor and he's just surging I really like

I've liked BSD since he broke out I liked that he sort of owned that losing streak that he had there to Moeconaum and Poyer and was like yeah I I stopped training with coaches

and was just fucking around and that was probably stupid and I was like well I don't know why you had to learn that lesson the hard way? That feels like you could have just thought about that and realize that was dumb, but what do I know? So back with a real team, real preparation, Dan Hooker on a quick turnaround.

I just really like Ben Wassandini to get his hand raised. So unless you came out here and we're like, I'm pretty confident Dan Hooker's going to win. This was going to be my plan for the climb. So we're going to pencil that in for at least one leg of climb. maybe we'll do another, a couple of other things out there that are potentially available. And then the other thing I do want to note here because just something, I don't think I'm going to take a flyer on it, but a prop that I was looking at is BSD by KOTKO.

The subline is plus 155, so it's not great value there realistically. And I do think that's the most likely finish for BSD. But I could see him getting on top and getting a ground and pound stoppage. price is plus 425. So something just to note, even though I don't think I'll be taking that it. Makes sense. This week on Networth and Chill, I'm revealing the exact playbook rich people use to set their kids up for financial success and how you can do it too, even if you're not a trust fund baby, from adding your newborn as an authorized user on your credit card to give them a near perfect credit score by the age of 18 to opening a 529 account that saves you thousands

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Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com slash your rich BFF. Let's move on to the feature bout of the evening. You know why this card, look, this card isn't great. I don't want to lie. The main card is very good, and I know it's very good, because it has three lightweight fights, and if you put three lightweight fights on a card, it's going to be good.

The second one of those fights is Hafeel Fazeev taking on Mauricio Huffy, or Ruffi. I don't remember if we do the soft R with him or not. But you did the soft R on Hafei, on Raphael Fiziv, which I really Yeah, because I do that because it's fun. I know, but I like that because Hafeel is a way cool that name than Raphael.

Hafeel Fiziv and Mauricio Ruffy in a very closely lined fight, Billy, which I was frankly just a hair surprised by Fiziv, been on a bit of a tough run, two and three over his last five. He cannot beat Justin Gachie. I'm sorry. He cannot beat interim lightweight champion

Justin Gae and he did fare better than Patty Pimlet did against him, frankly. But he is coming off, a unanimous decision went over Ignacio Bahamondes at U.C. Baku in June. Ruffy started out very hot, three wins in the U.C. lost his most recent fight, though, to the aforementioned Benoit Sandini at UFC Paris last September. Like I said, very tightly lined. Ruffy, very small favorite, minus 120, minus 125. Fazeave, basically even money, maybe a little bit better price depending on your book.

Billy, are you, I thought this would be lined very differently. Are you with me or did you think this would be basically a coin flip? I think it's close to right now. I don't know how early you were watching this one. I had a random free bet like three weeks ago and I was just looking for a plus money UFC pick that I liked. And I got Hoofee or Rufi, whichever we're saying, at like plus 125 before, you know, like a week or so before UFC.

324. Really like that. I think we've kind of pushed it to correct. Also, fun fact, I don't know if talked about this with you. His last name is Santos. He just really likes the character from One Piece, which is hilarious that we pretend it's his actual name. Look, that's, Brazilians get to do stuff like that.

They just get to invent their own names. And honestly, I'm fine with it, because Maricio Santos is just like the most generic Brazilian name. Roughly stands up. Yeah. So it's fine. It's like Anthony Smith should have made up a new name. So he's not Anthony Smith, the most generic name in America. Like, I'm totally okay with Ruffy.

I think I first heard about this from Jose Young's. I mean, probably because he interviewed him. It was like, it's a one piece dude. It's like, oh, honestly, sure. More fighters should do that. If you have a not a name that doesn't stand out, like everybody else, Diego Lopez is like a fairly generic name, but like he's kind of made it work anyway. But if you look at the rest of this card, everybody's got got a,

got a pretty good name. And if he was Mauritio Santos, he would have the worst name on the card by far. So good for him. That's fair. No, I just like how it's passed through a few languages because the character is spelled with an L originally, but when that gets dubbed the Portuguese,

they've made it an R. And then kind of, we say it as an H sometimes if we're trying to be silly guys. But yeah, long story short, I'm not seeing much value on this one right now with the current lines, but if you can find who if he's still at plus money, he has beaten everyone who didn't take him down

pretty much consistently in his life Fiziv has started to mix in some takedowns I got four on Baja Mondays which I was really surprised by I think now that it's not a surprise the fighting nerds will be prepared to stop those takedowns this isn't some D1 wrestler

this is a guy who just started grappling in his last couple fights and the cat's out of the bag that it's going to try to do that so Huffy should be able to stop it yeah I think I like Fiziv in this fight because, like, he,

I don't, I'm just deeply not sold on Ruffy, is the thing. Like, I didn't, I did not love him coming off Contender Series. So maybe I'm just committed to my priors is like the only thing, but, you know, killing Jamie Malarkey, we're going to talk about Jamie Malarkey.

That's a man who's designed to be killed by Contender Series prospects, as we'll talk about soon. Yamis Lontop is like, okay, you went to a decision with him too. It's like whatever. And then like the it's hard to say that the spinning wheel kick knockout of King Green is not cool. It's awesome. I don't know what that means in the year 2025 that you caoed King Green. I mean, I know he did just get a W. But like, eh, that's that's Lance Gibson.

You know, I'm just not that sold on him. Whereas Fiziv, I am genuinely shocked that Fiziv lost twice to Justin Gachi, but it just confirms how much I love Justin Gachi. And, you know, he got, he had a knee injury against Matush Gamra. And other than that, he's mostly just been very, very good at fighting, at working. Like, it's not the most exciting game, but I just kind of feel like he's got a pretty good chance here. The one thing that concerns me is that Ruffie is a big, big fellow. But Fiziv just beat Bahamondes, who's a gigantic.

human. So I'm like, I don't know if this matters, man. He's very active. He's got pretty solid defense. He works the body, which is like a thing that I love. I like Fizziv's chances in this fight. I don't know if I'm crazy. The one other thing I'll add to the discussion. About two-thirds of people on Tapology on Fizziv, but the line keeps sliding towards Ruffy, which is interesting. A little bit of a concern, I think, that there's some sharp money come out on that side. We just saw last week, you know, there was a fight with some inside information. if you're trying to read the tea leaves on that, I think that might be something you should also pay attention to.

Okay. Now that we've talked all about this, we have to talk about the most important thing. Have you seen Fiziv this week? I have not. Buddy, I need you to just go on to Twitter X, however you want to call it, and just search up Raphael Fiziv right now.

And like any of the pictures you see of him are truly how do you bet against this dude like look at this flow he's got like an old school jerry curl going it is it's incredible to see

this whatever a Azerbaijani fighter looking just the best I've ever seen a human being look it's insane the vibes like he's got straight up Samson hair and I'm not betting against Samson-Harefiziv, no chance.

That's fair. I'm looking as we're speaking, there's some video of what appears to be like an unkem man in overalls. Yes. Walking around food in the backyard. I'm like, ha-ha, this is funny. They're making fun of him. No, that was him that post.

No, that's actually him. That is Havel Viziv just being a psycho. Also, I think you should consider growing your hair out like he's done. I think this could be a really good look for you. obviously this is an audio only i've not actually shaved my head in like six or seven weeks now because the youtube comments on our action podcast kept calling me the bald guy and i needed to show people that it was actually a choice to shave my head i still have the hair probably won't make it till the warmer months here oh no you starts to get tough this is this is what you should be going for

uh i saw him this week i was like there's not a world i'm not betting on this absolute lunatic like look at him. He looks so good. Fully riding Samson-Hare-Fiziv honestly looks like a very miniature version of Samson in the zombie in the 28 days or 28 years

and the Bone Temple movie. And that movie rocks and so does Raphael Fiziv. Let's talk about heavyweights because you know what's great when you've got a lot of lightweight fights. You got a mix in a heavy weight there just to change the tempo change the pace.

at least this one probably won't go that long, hopefully, knock on wood. Taitoivasa returns to the UFC after a very long break to take on Talison Tashara. Tuvasa, plus 240 underdog, Tashara, minus 325 favorite. Tui Vasa five fight losing streak that he's riding. It was so bad that he took a year and a half off. It was like, oh, I lost a fifth time. I'm going to take some time off. I kind of thought he might just retire,

but no one retires in this sport. And he is now returning as the UFC comes back to Australia. To share a contender series prospect who is gone one in the promotion, won his debut, got put into a big spot against Derek Lewis and promptly got knocked out in 20-some-odd seconds at UFC Nashville in July.

The odds makers clearly think Talasin to share, despite just losing to a washed power puncher is not that's not going to happen to him twice. Do you agree? I don't know. This one is, I love Tai Tui Vasa so much. I can't bet against him,

so I'm trying to not do anything significant on this fight due to not letting my biases in there. Tui Vasa did knock out Derek Lewis, you know, if we want to play MMA math, there's some evidence there. I will have like a just for fun bet of some kind on Tui Vasa here, but not like my regular unit.

And my real plea is to the executive at Paramount, who I am sure are listening to this podcast, don't run ads over Tai Tuva's walkout. Oh, they're definitely going to do that. For the last five fights, it's been the only redeeming thing of the Tai Tuivasa experience, and it's always great. He does some silly song. Everyone has fun. Please don't ruin that. It might be all we get. Could I tempt you with a couple of important statistical facts? So, Five Fight Losing Shik, as you mentioned, do you know that as an under? Underdog, Taito Ivasa is 1 in 5.

So, Vegas knows when he's not going to win. He is never doing what you think he's going to, he's not going to shock you with his outcome. Also, would you care of a hazard to guess that the last year, not even the last fight, just the last year that Taito Ivasa won a fight in Australia? In Australia? In Australia.

I don't know. I'm trying to scroll. Was Huntsucker in 21 in Australia? That would kind of make sense. That wasn't in Australia. Oh, it was going to be like Arlowski in 2018, wasn't it? That was in Chicago. The other fight was 2018.

It was Cyril Asker in 2018 in Perth. They have taken this dude. He is two and four in the UFC while fighting in Australia in general. And those two were his first two. his first two UFC fights were Sydney and Perth, and since then he hasn't. They've took him back four times and four times he's lost. And I got to tell you, even though Talosin Descherre is not great, it feels like this is about to be five in a row losses, six in a row losses, five

and a row losses in Australia. I considered to climb here. I have ultimately decided not to because, I can't get the image of Derek Lewis just bombing him. And it's like, Tai Tuivasa can also do that. Like, Derek Lewis and Thai are very similar at this point of like,

not very good, but they can swing real hard. Can't win in their hometown. Yeah. Can't win their hometown. If Talasin, like, didn't learn a single thing,

it just walks forward and gets clobbered, I don't want that to be the end of this very nascent climb. So, but if you're at home, you got your own climb going, if you're early on, and you're just trying to get a head full of steam. I think you could maybe go worse ways with this.

What are, actually didn't look. Let me take a look at the old over under on this fight. What do we think that's going to look like here, huh? I've already looked so I know about. The over 1.5 is around a plus 175. That sounds right to me. I is 220. Right now I'm seeing a 220.

I'm seeing a 220. I think over one and a half if you want to get real crazy. Don't do that, though. I, I'm debating bringing heavyweight overs back this year. I'm not going to, this may be a good litmus test for it, but I'm not going to do it with this one. So there will just be no action for me on this,

but if you want to throw Fisherra in a parlay, I think it will win, but I don't want to throw it in a parlay I care about if that makes sense. And let's go back to the good weight class, Billy. Lightweight 155 pounds as Kill and Sull killed takes on the previous discussed Jamie Malarkey. Biggest betting favorite on the card, I believe. Yes, that is true.

Okay, I didn't look at the road fights, but I was like, I'd be really surprised when I was that bad. Minus 900 for Saul killed. Malarkey plus 600, Saul killed 3 and O in the OC coming off Contender series where I pretty clearly

underrated him. Coming off one of the best knockouts of 2025, uh the chaos the headkick chaos of nazrat hawkpros to ucc 321 malarkey two and three over his past five a unanimous decision win over ralando bodoya in september which really begs the question bill why is this happening um salt killed just knocked out hockprost who's on a pretty good little run and i think just would in general be ranked higher than jamy milarchy at this stage of his career. This feels like a step back for Sal Kild or, more appropriately, a set-up fight for him to show

out in front of the Australian crowd. Would you agree? Yeah, when you asked your rhetorical question, I was going to say, we just talked about how Dan Hooker's going to get killed. Taitu of us is probably going to get killed. Folks got a chance, but, you know, we need something here, so why not give it to them? And also, I believe Sal Kild was originally supposed to fight wrong Zhu, which I hate to say would have been a better fight than that, probably, just because Rongju isn't made of glass, at least as far as I know. I think, I believe you actually are right. That is true.

I forgot about that. You're right. Yeah. So it wasn't, it wasn't plan A, but like, you know, the larkies around here, too. But you get an Australian win either way. I know wrongshoes on a, on a wind streak, but that still doesn't feel like, it feels like a lateral at best, still kind of a step back from beating Nazareth-Hawk-pross, but alas. Agreed, but it's not like a-

It's not this step back. This is a very obvious step back. Yeah, the only real betting note I have if you got enough climb equity, if you're someone who accounts it like me where as long as you get to a certain point, or just want like a half step, you could go ahead and throw Sal Kild on there. Knockout line is minus 160, which is a little bit pushing it because Sal Kidd can and Will grapple. He actually has two submission wins over Street Buddha, Dom Marfan, who we'll talk about in a little bit.

So I worry about a club and sub when you're laying minus 160, the inside the distance prop is not great. I don't have that in front of me now, but yeah, I think it's more of just like a climb parlay piece, whatever you want to do in there. Inside the distance is minus 500, so don't do that either.

Or do that as a climb, I guess. That's probably not a terrible idea. I am a little, after what a taba did to me last week, I'm a little off props, unless we're talking over, under props for climbs right now.

Maybe we'll get back there, but for me, this one is, I've got Salkyled by K.O. at minus 130, so I've got a better price on it. And I can't discount that it is possible a club and sub, but I will note Jamie Malarkees has eight losses, two by decision and six by knockout. Never been submitted. And I think the, I mean, outside of the broader trends of the sport moving away from submissions, I think that this, this feels like we don't have to overthink this fight. It's a setup fight. I did not, straight up, one of my bigger misses in my contender series breakdowns

is starting to look like killing Saul killed. It's going to be one of those because I thought he was fine, but underwhelming. And he hasn't beaten the world's greatest opposition, but he's beating quality dudes. And Nazareth Hockpross is a very good win. And in a very, very mega fashion. And lightweight's in transition right now, man. You got a lot of bodies moving, up and down, leaving. He gets a big win here.

His next fight, I know he should, but his next fight is probably a ranked dude and an opportunity to start making some real noise. So I think I'm going to place the bet because looking at my book right now, it's minus 130. I like that price for a KO prop for killing. I'll kill. Before we got into, like before I looked at the lines, I thought I was going to climb with him. I was like, he'll probably be like minus 600. and that'll be enough. I've got a little bit of equity in my place right now.

I'm like slightly ahead of pace or whatever. But at minus 900, I just, if you can get them for less and you're doing your own climb, for sure, it's great, but minus 900 is too big. I don't have the baked inequity there. Yeah, 100%. That is our main card bill. And that's really the last good thing that happens on this card.

And then there's a bunch of other stuff that takes place. Some interesting things happening out there, though. but the quality drop-off from the main card to even the middle prelims is pretty stark, in my opinion. But let's talk about it. Light heavyweight contest, Junior Taffa takes on Billy Elikana in a 205-pound fight. Elikaena, your betting favorite, minus 240. The comeback on Junior Tafa plus 190. Tafa, two and three over his last five.

His last fight, he got submitted by Tucco Tocos in July. in his light heavyweight debut Elikaena on a two-fight winning streak, submitted Kevin Christian back in November. Billy, are you riding with your fellow Billy? I am. I'm not sure how. The general logic here

is if you know as many as one takedown, you can beat Junior Tafa because he is one of the worst grappler, him and his brother as well. I don't want to take any shades away from Justin here. They just don't know what they're doing. And once they get down there, pretty rough. I will say the sub

from Ellacana's last fight, he knocked the guy down and then subbed him. Don't try to do that against Tafa, just shoot for takedowns. Hopefully someone has told him that. If not, I'm telling him now, if you're listening. Billy Alacana. We know you are, Billy. Thank you for being a listener.

Yeah, if you got one good takedown, whatever that A game you hit on, you know, the advanced grappling class at your gym, that you can hit on some black belts, won and you win. That's all you need. So, yeah, I think probably Elkanah by finish

just because if you don't get knocked out by Tafa, he's going to run out of steam. Not 100% sure exactly how I'm betting it, but it'll be some version of Alkana. Yeah, I would just, if I was fighting either of the Tafas, I would just go for like low ankle picks and just wait them out

because they will be tired by minute six. And the steam will leave the punches and then you can make something happen. happen. So I'm just not going to bet this one. I do think Billy Aliccana is likely going to win because this is set up very well. We know who the Taffas are. Mike Heck and I were talking post-U.C. 324. Pick either of the Tafel brothers. I mean, I guess you do Justin because he's still at heavyweight. That's who Derek Lewis fights at the White House guard, because he could probably beat them, right? Like it's, and you just want to get him a W at the White House guard. So, yeah, looking at this, there's just nothing that appeals to me. I mean, Ellicano by submission is plus 190.

You could convince me that there's some value there, but I mostly just don't want to do that. I think is my solution. I was like, do I want to have money on that fight? And I believe my answer is no. So, but if I was if I was just recommending one bet on this fight, I think that's probably the one I'd go with. We move on to the middleweight.

Oh. I'm just going to throw it real quick. To your point, you made me think of this. He's going to tire out around minute six. Ellicator round two is plus 350. That's better than his knockout or his submission prop. Might end up throwing a sprinkle at that. And it could be better at other books.

I just looked at one place. So if you can get that around 400, I think that might actually be the angle. Ooh, let me see if my book has that somewhere. Round props. I don't, each fighter went around to, no. The Opscribers don't do a great job on the run, too, but yeah. Yeah. But just keep an eye open as more books bring that up, if you're listening to this.

You know, Friday, Saturday, a lot of the books that don't have it when we're recording will have those at slightly different numbers, or possibly drastically different numbers. That's a great thing about anime betting. Some books can be wildly disparate. Let's talk about a couple of middleweight fights. the first one up. It shares a fight that's happening. It's Cam Roaston taking on Cody Brunidge, Roaston, minus 350 for the Contender Series prospect. Brundage plus 260. Roaston won his U.S.D.C. debut last year. He T-K. O'Don-O. Andre Petroski in September.

Brondage has been on one of the weirder runs I've ever seen in the UFC. One, two, and one with won no contest over his past five fights. That's right. He won a fight. He lost two fights. He had a majority draw on a fight he originally lost, but then they effed it up because some nonsense happened, and they realized they actually, it's a majority draw.

And then a no contest. He's coming off a split decision loss to Eric McConnico last year. Weird one. I ranked Cam Rostin very, very, very low as a contender serious prospect, and Cody Brundage is Cody Brunich. is Cody Brundage. Like I don't know that we need to talk too much about what Cody Brunge brings to the table.

Still, these odds feel very long and so long that I don't want to be betting because I don't want to bet Cardi Brundage, but I'm really not laying this price on Cam Roaston. See, I like the price on Cam Roaston. I am restarting the climb in honor of being on here with you. And I like getting it started in that minus 350 range rather than the minus 500 to build some equity.

I think I would agree with you if I was, you know, eight levels deep. to climb. First step one, if you want to do it on Rousson, I think it makes a lot of sense. Petroski is a stylistically very similar, but more athletic version of Cody Brundage, and he just mauled him. Also, Jed, are you familiar with the concept of the tapology rainbow? What's the tapology rainbow?

So it's when a fighter in four consecutive fights. Oh, and they have the... Yeah, the Amanda. They're all different colors. Which is red, the draw, which is blue, the yellow, no contest. in the green wind. So he pulled off the Tapology rainbow. I mean, plus he's also got the gray for canceled fight too.

So really the actual full blown all of the colors that can happen in Tapology. Because he had the Ryan Loder fight that got canceled. But also like that that's awesome because it is legitimately red, blue, green, gray, yellow, a sick. Yeah. But also like every fight, you know, quote unquote, not quite, but, many of the fights in his career that were not wins or were not losses should have been and almost none the other way around. Like he has the win against, I believe it's Malcun who we'll talk about,

where Malcun just dominated him like one punch went through and he got the DQ. The no contest, I think he was getting killed against Judo Thunder, if I recall correctly, the overturned fight against Mansor Malik. It's a wee bit surprising he's still in the UFC, frankly. But his actual record in the UFC is five and six of wins of the war. But it's still just like kind of wild because you're like, you've lost a lot and your wins have been suss. Yeah. Like very, very suss for a lot of those wins as well.

So I get it. I just, I don't believe in Kim Rolson. He did not impress me on Condender Series. And maybe I'll be wrong like I was about killing Salkil. And I guess that'll be okay. Let's talk about a middle-way fight. I am more interested in, not because it's going to be good, but because I have a fascinating. with things that are very, very strange and awful.

And I think that's what we're about to get here as the heavyweightiest middleweight fight that's ever been. Jacob Malkoon taking on Torres Finney. Malkoon, a very slight betting favorite at minus 150. Torres Finney plus 125. Malkun, three and two over his past five, coming off a TKO winner of Andre Patrowski in March of 2024. Petroski's shown up all over this place.

which I would also like to mention, maybe my favorite Tapology finish I've ever seen. TKO Ground Strikes after Hard Collision, which is just incredible writing from whoever did that at Tapology. Finney, famously a three-time contender series winner. He finally got a contract after they basically set him up with a third fight. Dana, after the second one, Dana was like, you are boring.

Come back. And he came back and they gave him a handpicked win. And he did it. And then Dana signed him. And then his first fight was a split decision over Robert Valentine. One of the worst fights you'll watch. And Dana immediately, you could see in his head be like, why in God's name did I give this man a contract?

What was I possibly thinking to do this? And now he fights fellow wrestler Jacob Malkun. Billy, how do you see this one going? Yeah, I want to point out you mentioned how tapology writes it up. On UFC stats, they call Malcoun's win over Petroski a kick, which is the funniest thing, because he did not kick him at all. He just was standing there while Petrosky shot into his hip, which is hilarious. Collision ground strikes after collision.

Petrosky knocked himself out by putting his head into Malcoon's hip, and then Malcoon hit him a bunch. but yeah no I'm actually interested in this fight from a gambling standpoint I think Finney should probably be favored but he's going off around plus 150 both of them pretty much all they can do

is wrestle Finney is much more athletic and like you know fairly hot he wrestled D1 for a year or two before switching just to football when we're just wrestling that athleticism matters a lot I worry a little bit about

you know possibly biased judging or crowds but if you're on top the whole round you're not getting that bias doesn't matter If he gets eight takedowns against Jacob Malcoun, he's going to win the fight because Malcun is not a great or even what I would say, good striker anyway, both average a ton of takedowns. So, yeah, I'll be on the Finney side, one of the earlier bets I made at about plus 150. So I agree I like Finney to get a win here.

I mean, there are a couple of reasons. One, Malcun's like one of the few middleweights who's not going to be egregiously taller than him either. So, like, that just feels like that will help Torres Finney. who is built like not even like an action figure he's built like a comic book figure he's so large like just

the biggest little man in the whole world but so I like him as an underdog bet as well I think that that is a pretty decent value there here's what I'm also looking at Billy because I when I first saw this as like 100%

and then I looked at the numbers and they're not as good as in my head they feel like they should be. A possible second step of the climb this week. I technically would be the first because this would come before the BSD one. The over one and a half is minus 400. Now historically, Malcun, only four and three in the UFC hitting that Finney, only six and five in his career. I just obsessing, I struggle to see who's getting a finish early in this fight.

That doesn't seem like a thing that's likely to happen to me. Agreed. I think the only risk you run there is Malcun doing some jiu-jitsu stuff when Finney just launches his head in there. Yeah, or how are you going to choke a man who has no neck? You can't choke that dude. Of that, I'm very certain. Well, that's a fair point. So, yeah, if you're not worried about that, then I think that makes a lot of sense. That'd be the only one I'm finishing early. That's the, like, Finney has the classic look to me of like, well, you should never try to choke him because he doesn't have a neck. And if he turtles his traps over his neck, like it actually turtles.

His neck literally withdraws into the mountainous boulders that are his traps. Whereas like, that man clearly doesn't have a flexible elbow. If you're going to go for an arm or like a leg lock, sure. But the neck ain't going to happen for him. And to me, this just feels like these are two dudes who are going to wrestle. three strikes are going to get thrown total, and it's probably going to the cards. So much so that I honestly was also just broadly considering

Finney by decision at plus 250 instead of just Finney as a straight-up dog at plus 125. But I'm not going to do that. I'm going to give myself the out of Finney getting a finish. But I am going to debate it, check my socials, I'll let you know officially. I am very, very interesting. interested in the Finney Malcoon over one and a half at minus 400.

In my head, that feels like a lock. So something to keep in mind. Also, that's probably going to be my last bet on this card, unless you really sell me on some road to UFC stuff. Let's move to the final. Actually, I guess technically not the final based on how they're doing it. I'm unclear. But another prelim bout, a welterweight contest,

Jonathan McAlef takes on Oban Elliott And Mickleff is your betting favorite Minas 130 to come back on Elliot plus 105 Mikkelif coming off a unanimous decision win over Kevin Juset in February Elliot 3 in the UFC but suffered his first loss last time out to Siokionko back in June for the Welsh gangster Elliot a dog for the third time in the UC two and oh is a dog thus far as you see career bill does he make it three and no i have done very little work

on this fight so far yet so this is all grain of salt i'm leaning the welsh gangster i think the last fight said a lot more about sielcon co korean tyson than it did against oban elliott i'm high on him bit of a overreaction to what this line would have been had that fight not happened if that makes sense and yeah i'm just big oban a late guy but i'm going to dive into tape I will have a full betting preview of this one sometime this week on Action Network. Maybe by the time you're hearing it, maybe not, no promises.

Honestly, if you have a bet on Elliot, I'll probably join you because broadly, I do sort of think he's going to win, but I have not done nearly enough sort of research into this topic. I just... I think I graded Mikalef as like a decent but not exceptional

prospect coming off Contender series. and I definitely didn't grade Oben Elliott very high but he's since like going on to get some quality wins in the UFC and mainly I think he can grapple McAleff which I think is a huge huge feather in his cap but Mickleff in my head it feels like McAlef is a bigger dude than he is

but I currently have nothing if you feel one real confident way I'll probably tell you but this sort of feels like dog or pass situation to me as it currently stands. And we have the final official fight of the weekend, or I guess the final official UFC fight of the weekend. So the other fights are official fights, but they're not UFC fights. This is Khan off Lee taking on Yiza in a featherweight contest. O'Flea plus 170, Yiza minus 210.

Hopefully, lost his first two bouts coming off of the Ultimate Fighter, and to reinforce how stupid it is. The first one was the Ultimate Fighter finale that does count as an official UFC bout, despite these road to UFC bouts not counting. Lost that, lost his next one, finally got a W, submitted Ricardo Ramos in October. Yiza, also a man with a lot of road to UFC experience, twice on the show, runner-up season one, winner, Season two, one and one in the UFC, knocked out Weston Wilson back in August.

Billy, I have frankly nothing to say about this fight. So do you have anything to say about this fight? No, I might at some point this week. Like I said, I've been heavily focused on the ones that are officially this road to the UFC. I believe one of Yiza's official UFC fights was the Road to UFC final, though, that counted. Correct. It was the Jung-Yong-Lee one. Yeah.

So it used to count. Now it doesn't. Nobody knows. It doesn't. No one knows what's happening. I think Yiza can probably take down Conoffley, who has a statistically horrific takedown defense. And so, sure, but I got nothing. I got no real vibes on this fight whatsoever.

And I wasn't going to tape study it. I'm just being real with you. I was not going to tape study it. And along those notes, I know literally zero things about the next eight fighters. Because frankly, until you were like, I've been keeping up with it, I know what to do. I was going to be like, and there are four road to UFC fights that we don't have to talk about. But you, look, you're a man with the plan. You have been apparently keeping up with the flyweight, bantamweight, featherweight, and lightweight road to UFC tournaments.

And so it's your time to shine, Bill. Let's start it off lightweight road to UFC season four final. Songwu Kim taking on Dom Marfan Marfan the betting favorite minus 180 Kim plus 145 Tell me how you think this one is going to go Bill This one is going to be like Torres Finney's fight Except both guys are better at Jiu Jiu Jitsu

And worse at wrestling So if that appeals to you you will really enjoy this fight If what I just said to you sounds really bad go ahead and take this one off. Don Marfan, great grappler, makes almost no attempt to do any striking when he's in dominant position, which is not. Why would you strike?

That's unnecessary. Which is not great. His opponent, also mostly a grappler, will do some striking, but as soon as he tries to, Don Marfan will reverse him or get a positional advantage. Leaning towards fan here,

the line has dropped a good bit, even versus the number you quoted. Looking at it right now, you can get as low as minus 148. We'll be on the fan side, possibly fan by decision when those props come out, but I'm hoping for a better price. And a free plug that I'll do multiple times in this segment. I will have a full betting preview, probably late Wednesday, early Thursday that comes up with how I'm actually betting all of these. But this one's a little bit of a hold just because of the price action and I'm looking at some props, but I lean fan.

Street boot is a great nickname as well. I was going to have two things to say. One, I have it on good authority that his name, his name, his name, his name. his last name is Marfan, so it is both of them. So for your reference. And two, while I don't know anything about this fight, I am pretty, pretty in on a fight of Street Buddha versus Frogman. That just, those are some elite nicknames.

And so I am, I'm a full supporter of what's going on in this road to UFC fight. next up the featherweight road to UFC finals as wait who is in this featherweight finals

a Sebastian Zalé Sebastian Zalay versus Kichiro Nakamura as I'm looking at my

notes here Zalay is hold on where I have to pull this up sorry I cut it down so I was doing something else um Zillay

you're betting favorite minus 130. Nakamura plus 105. Zillet on a quite a competent win streak, frankly. And the same for Nakamura, even outside of the road DFC. Tell me what you think on

these two dudes. Yeah, I'll be quicker on this one. This is actually the one of the four that I haven't written up and decided on my bet yet. Zalai just starts a dude who had no interest in defense in his last fight, which doesn't really give us a ton of information on him. I watched his previous fight, a little bit more patient there. Seven of his ten overall wins are by decision. He's an international karate champ, so he's got a little bit of that, like, Wonder Boy Thompson's going to touch you more than try to kill you. Seems like he has

turned up the aggression in recent fights. Nakamura trains with Rinya Nakamura, but is of no biological relation to him. As far as I can find, Rinya Nakamura was in his corner at the road to the UFC event. Very different style than Rinya, though, definitely more striking heavy. The note I have right now is, to myself, is to watch earlier as delay fights and see if he's going to offensively grapple. I don't like him in a striking match here because he point fights. Nakamura is trying to do a little bit more damage, where if he can get some grappling going,

I think that will be where the edge is. So TBD on that one, check out my article at Action Network sometime in the next day or two when you're hearing this. That takes us to the Bantamweight Tournament Finals. Sulong Rangbo, taking on Lawrence Louis Louis the underdog plus 195 for the city kickboxing fighter Sulin grangbo Sulangrongo Sulaongbo Selong Rangbo

Selong Rangbo I'm sure I butchered that Because I gave a lot of different pronunciations of it One of them was probably okay Right you just do enough The Chinese fighter taking on the city kickboxing guy Both on pretty decent win streaks. I think

Louis is an internal MMA dude as well, like he fought in there, which is, you know, a high profile Australian MMA scene. Tell me what you got here, Bill. Yeah, Sulin Grangbo. You actually didn't get it right any of the times. It's like a egg in there.

Still only 20 years old, which is crazy for guys. Very young man. His losses came when he was like 11 or whatever. I'm exaggerating a little bit, but not as much as one would hope. scary power, super fast hands. He is Sumederej's cousin, if that means anything to you. Once he settles into the pocket and gets rolling, he has awesome hands, awesome power, great striker. On his last fight, Michael Kiesa literally said what someone needs to do to break his rhythm

is throw a lot of feints and mix in takedown attempts. And he's fighting a dude from city kickboxing who throws a ton of fain and also mixes in a ton of takedown attempts in Lawrence, Louis. I really love this price on Louis, I believe, probably going to be my favorite one of these four if I had to pick a best bet. Louis at two to one, he does not have the physical tools of Sulin Grangbo. He is not the prospect overall, but he is like purpose built to give a guy like Sule and Grangbo problems, and we're getting two to one odd. So that is my favorite bet of these four.

Well, I'll tell you what, I'm either just going to blindly follow you or I may do something else. because I kind of feel like I might just do it as a gimmick. And that is with the final fight we need to speak about. And it is the flyweight finals as Aaron Tao takes on Namshry, bat Bayar, batbyar, aka Step Warrior from Mongolia, which kind of rocks, is your betting favorite at minus 130 for the 25-year-old.

Aaron Tao, you may know him from Continuum. The City Kickboxing Product had a eventful fight with Elijah Smith that he ultimately ended up losing. But was a fun dude. People liked him. Didn't get a contract because of the loss. But apparently he might have found a way into the UFC via the road to UFC. I'm considering now a city kickboxing parley of those two dudes because that just sort of seems fun.

But I don't know if that's smart or not. because I couldn't tell you one fact about Bat Bayar other than he's Mongolian. I would even consider a, like, the Anzac parlay between all the Australian or New Zealand guys and these four, even though many of them were born outside of their, like Lawrence Louis, Australian born in Hong Kong, Domar fan, something similar. But I kind of lean towards those guys and all of these, which is partially because those city kickboxing guys are really well trained, as are a lot of the Australian fighters.

this is going to be the most fun of these four fights because these dudes both just for the tau is fun i don't know shit about bat byr but tau was a very fun fighter yeah bat byr is similar in that he's just he's doing a lot of stuff he's going to plan his feet and throw he'll take one two just like tow what i am leaning towards doing and probably will is i really like toe pre-fight when he takes you down he carries you all over the place and does big slams when he throws it's always really hard that looks really good to the judges but it also wears him out pretty consistently. Even some of his wins on the road to the UFC and other stuff, he lost the third round in a fight he was dominating. So if we can get a better price on Bat Byar at the end of the

first, end of the second, I think he will have more success late and tow early, which means you want that Ayr-in-toe pre-fight bat or Erring Toe round one or two, you know, those split props, something like that. That is where he's going to have the most success. I'm worried that Bat By-R just can't really grapple that well against this level because he's fought a lot of strikers. and tow does some really fun stuff with the grappling because he'll just carry you right to his corner from literally all the way across the cage and slam you which is always cool.

Yeah, let me put this in and see what I get if I parlayed these two dudes up. It's got to be like, because I never parlay dogs, but it's got to be about plus 500 for a parley. Actually plus 505. I'm doing that for shits and gigs. Why not? Yeah.

Parlay, the city kickbacker. boxing road to UFC parlay shall live, plus the other bets I got. And then, you know, we'll climb maybe one, maybe two. We'll see how it goes. Billy, you brought just incredibly important insight that otherwise I straight up would not have had about Road to UFC. Thank you for joining me. Tell, I mean, you've plugged a bunch, but one more time for the road.

Plug all the stuff you got. Tell the people where they can find your work in general and certainly for this week ahead of USC 325. Yeah. Network.com under the UFC tab. That is mostly me at this point. Also, the great work from Sean Zerillo. Psycho Word 586 at Twitter.

Voyage Jiu-Jitsu in Sinclair Shores, if you want to get some rolls. You've got to change your Twitter hit. I will be a voyage jiu-suitzu most nights, most weeks. So you want to come roll, see if that brownbell's legit. I am happy to do that. You've got to change your Twitter game. They won't let me. Psycho-Word numbers.

That is actually the area code. for McComb County just outside of Detroit for those. Can't do it. Good, good, Evan. And if you stuck around this long, you already know where to find me. Thank you for tuning in this week and sticking with us if you have all the way up to here. Good luck. A UFC 325.

And then we are back, baby. The apex, the meta apex next week for one of the greatest main events you'll ever see. Mario Batista takes on Loke Dog, actually really fun fight. And now in front of 700 people instead of 70. So tune in next week for whatever Vegas

Apex card that is. And until then, good luck this weekend. Thanks for listening. Love y'all.