MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Will Anthony Hernandez Keep Rolling Against Roman Dolidze at UFC Vegas 109?

Episode Date: August 6, 2025

Once more into the APEX, dear friends. For the second week in a row, this Saturday, UFC Vegas 109 goes down in the world’s mightiest APEX and with it comes a matchup of elite middleweights. In the main event, Roman Dolidze takes on Anthony Hernandez in a bout with major divisional implications, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew flies solo to break down UFC Vegas 109, giving his thoughts on the main event matchup, what's at stake between Dolidze and "Fluffy," Steve Erceg's chances in the co-main event against his short-notice replacement, some ranked women's matchups on the card, a few exciting prospects, the latest update on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 134 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard. And it is going to be a quick one this week, ladies and gentlemen, just trying to get something out there.

I know past few weeks did one for UC Vegas 108, but it's been a little hit or miss over the summer months with a lot of personal stuff happening. You know, and vacation time happening. No vacation for me this week. and in fact, if you've gone to Mawaitfighten.com, great website. You may notice that some changes are afoot there. But we press on, and we press on to UFC Vegas 109 this week.

I'm a terrible host, and I didn't lead with this. I'm Jed Mishu, but you probably know that if you're listening at this point. And we're going to talk about some fights pretty quickly this week, ladies and gentlemen, because I think U.S. Vegas 109 is a terrible, terrible fight card. It's an Apex card. It's the go-home show before.

we get the UFC 319 pay-per-view back in Chicago, which I'm very excited about. Obviously, the main event, my boy is going on. But let's very briefly talk about UFC Vegas 108. Tatsura, Taira taking on Hyeongsung Park. Tyra gets the dub. We do not. This year has been a stone cold catastrophe functionally,

and another losing week for us took several underdog shots. None of them panned out. We're deeply in the rest. for this year. We're going to try and climb our way out to at least be something respectable in the lost column by the end of the year. But I'm telling you this to let you know you should probably just fade everything I'm about to tell you because I don't remember what it's like to win a week anymore. Frankly, it has been a tough, tough road. Did win the most important thing, the thing that matters the most to me. That is the climb. For you who don't know what that is,

my attempt to string together 30 consecutive bets. Last week's climber, my guy, Rinyanakamura. And let me tell you, we love Rinyanakamura in this house because he didn't make us sweat it even remotely. 62 second knockout denied a bonus, which is, makes sense because the two fights that got Fight of the Night deserved it. But still, tough scenes for Rinyanakamura, but great scenes for the climb.

This is, I believe, version six. I'd have to go back and count. all the failed versions. But we are now two steps down, $152 bank roll as we press on. And we will, of course, have a climb this weekend. But let's get to this weekend. UFC Vegas 109, Roman Delizzi taking on Anthony Fluffy Hernandez in a middleweight contest that's tough to know just how much this matters.

What's at stake here? Fluffy on a great run. Delizzi on a pretty good run himself, frankly. But they don't seem really in these sort of a media. title picture. My best guess is that the winner of this gets to fight Reiner to Ritter. You know, RDR coming off that win over Rob Whitaker, but I don't know. Hard to say what they're fighting for, but they will be fighting for five rounds or less

in your main event. The Leads A, the underdog, plus 275. Fluffy, fairly sizable betting favorite at minus 3.45. As I mentioned, both on pretty good runs right now. Deleese has three-fight winning streak. Most recently, unanimous decision win over Marvin Vittori back in March in their main event. Fuffy is seven-fight winning streak. Unanimous decision win in the rematch with Brendan Allen back in February.

The breakdown for this fight is very simple. Yes, to Leeds, he's on a good run. You know, that run has, it's Marvin Vittori, who I think is pretty close to washed, Anthony Smith, who's definitely washed, and Kevin Holland, who's not a middleweight. There just aren't that meaningful of wins. Meanwhile, Fluffy has just been looking better every time out. And Fluffy in 25-minute fights, I mean, that's just a monster problem. For honestly, probably anyone in the division, you know, I would still pick my guy, DDP, to beat Fluffy Hernandez.

But 25 minutes, Fluffy has a real game chance against any middleweight on earth with the way he presses the pace. The cardio brings to the table, the grappling sort of a middleweight marab coming at you. And so I think he's going to run through Roman Delizzi, especially Delizzi is historically not like a great defensive wrestler. An accomplished grappler in his own right. I think he's an ADCC trial champion, you know, like a guy who can certainly grapple and maybe even has like a slight power advantage on the feet. But he's historically not been a great defensive wrestler and just nobody can keep up with the pace fluffy puts down. And so pretty straightforward here, folks. This is the climb this week.

It is Anthony Fluffy Hernandez. I think 350 is a great climb price. I mean, it's a great price. The climb being minus 500 less. We're getting some extra value on this step of the climb, frankly. I really like his chances to do big things on Saturday. And so I got him at minus 350. Some books you can get them slightly less.

But for the climb, minus 350, Anthony Fluffy Hernandez is the bet as we try to put three steps down and work our way back up the mountain where we want. were so close to the top. Moving on, the co-main event of the evening. A bantam weight bout. Some things have changed here. Steve Erseg takes on Ode Osborne. It's a bannam weight out because a lot of stuff's happened.

Erseg was originally supposed to face Hyeongsung Park. Park got pulled in to replace Amarabazi at U.S.Vegas, 108 this past Saturday. So Erseg now gets Ode Osborne with the shifts making an abandum weight bout. Ursaig, pretty healthy favorite 2,000, Odei Osborne plus 390. Interesting that he's that big of favorite

given he's currently on a three-fight losing streak coming off a unanimous decision lost to Brandon Moreno back in March. Probably because O'Day's not doing like too much better. He's two and three over his past five. He did get a TK a win, but that win was over Luis Garoulli in April.

And prior to that, he'd lost three consecutive fights. No, that win probably saved his UFC career so good on him but we are talking about a very different caliber of of fighter going on here uh in steve urseg you know a guy who fought for the title maybe he got rushed there but still you know i i think it's easy enough to say that steve ursig is a superior fighter to oday osborne in this regard um interested to see if we see grappler ursag come in here because that is one of the things about him um you know he his career that's

the UFC has been defined by his striking prowess, but this is a guy with six submission wins on his resume and an Australian national champion wrestler. I believe he won World T or the, their Natty trials at one point. And so certainly has the ability to grapple, and that has always been an effective strategy to employ against O'Day Osborne. You know, he can probably do just fine in the striking as well. He's got classic technique, good power, good pop, but I think we may in fact see Ursaig the grappler in this one. And I do think he's going to get his hand raised. And just, you know, I'm not in love with what I've done here because I do end up with

two bets coming down on this. But I first put Steve Urseg in a parlay. I got that minus 520 price, two other legs coming with it. And basically he was the last addition to that parlay because I had two legs that I liked, but it was only going to pay out at like a minus 2.10, minus 2. 15 or something like that. And so I figured I might as well add Erseg in. I do think he's going to win

and try and get it at least closer to even money. Still not quite to even money, but we're getting a little bit better of a payout going there. And so I've got that one. And I also, I'm taking a little splash, just a baby sprinkle, quarter of a unit on Erseg by submission at plus 175.

Again, Maine has the grappling prowess. Ode Osborne is a man who has been submitted. Let me confirm this, but I believe four different times he's been submitted in his career. And so I honestly expected the price to be a little bit better for, for a sec, you know, by sub here. But we take what we can get. It's certainly not like a terrible price to just have some fun, take a little flyer on it and see what happens. And that takes us right on down the line to a women's strawweight contest between Yasmin, Lucinda, and Angela Hill.

I'm sorry, a ranked women's strawweight contest between these two ladies. Lucinda, you're betting favorite minus 200 to come back on Hill plus 164. Lucendo 4 and 2 in the UFC coming off for unanimous decision loss to amend a Limosch back in March. While Hill, three and two over a past five, a split decision win over Ketland-Suzza. I think most people thought she probably should have lost that. This fight breakdown is incredibly easy. I have a bet on Yasmin Lucindo. I got her at the minus 200 price.

And the breakdown goes a little something like this. Angel Hill is 40 years old. Yasmin Lucindo is 23. in those matchups, I'd be willing to bet that the younger fighter has won 70 plus percent of them if we're talking about an over 15-year age gap. 40 is a very long time to compete. Congratulations to Hill for doing, you know, as well as she has this late in her career. But, I mean, Lucindo can absolutely compete on the feet with Angela Hill,

and I do think she can score takedowns despite the fact that Hill has steadily improved. in her take down defense. I think she can just kind of win this every which way. Minus 200 feels like a happy price. And frankly, there's not a lot of action I want to bet on a lot of big favorites that I'm not hugely a fan of this week. This is one that I think is fair. I will say, this was the other consideration for the climb this week, the over two

and a half here. It's minus 550. Hills hit that over in 14 consecutive fights. And Lucindo, in her six UFC bouts, she's, hit that over in five of them. I mean, there's a reason the price is so big. It almost a certainty that this is going to the cards. In fact, Lucindo by decision is only like minus 150.

So why even take that versus just taking her straight up at that point, you know? But because craziness can happen, because it's just more of a sweat, I think, for something like that. Because you never know. Someone could turn an ankle and then boom, the climb has dropped. Two and a half is just a lot of rounds to be betting for over. and not feeling a little sweaty about it. And so I passed on this, but if you're doing your own climate home, I think that it is totally reasonable.

It also totally reasonable parley fodder if you want to throw it in with some other things here. So something to keep an eye on. Moving down the road, featherweight contest, Andre Feely taking on Christian C. Rod Rodriguez Rodriguez. You're betting favorite at mine is 238. Come back on Feely plus 195. Feeley's been alternating wins and losses for a while, I think eight, nine, ten fights in a row, something like that.

But he's coming off his submission lost to Moki Costa in February. So perhaps he's due. Could be getting that W up next. Problem is I actually thought he should have lost his split decision win over Cups Swanson before that and should be on a three-fight losing streak. Meanwhile, C-Rod, three and two over his past five, also lost to Malky Costa. He lost Acosta in March, but he did at least make it to the cards. I just straight up. I think Philly's pretty close to washed.

I know he's actually not that old, but a lot of hard miles. And he seemed pretty close to wash for quite some time. C-Rod, I think, is just a good enough guy to get things done here. The issue is it's tough to make a prop bet on this because Feeley, he loses in all fashions. You know, he's pretty evenly split. and losing by decision knockout submission. And similarly, C-Rod pretty evenly split in winning by submission knockout decision.

So it's just really hard to feel super confident that you're going to put together, like, or at least for me that I would spike it, that I'd be like, ah, yeah, I've got this one. And so I am ultimately just going to take a pass on this one. Sorry, take a pass on prop betting this one because I don't love the. price, you know, 238's a big number. But good enough for me. I took it on C-Rod. It's actually my last bet of the evening functionally.

I have to complete that parlay. But I just said, a lot of big favorite stuff I'm not interested in. But let's keep moving on to a bantam weight contest. Miles John is taking on John Matsumoto. And this I do have a bet on longtime listeners of our programming. We'll probably know what it is. Miles Johns, plus 2.45, Jean-Matsimoto minus 305. John's 4 and 1 in his last 5.

Really, it's 3-1-1-no contest, but he won the no contest. It got overturned for a drug test. So certainly from a betting perspective, 4 and 1 over his past 5. Coming off a unanimous decision loss, though, to Felipe Lima back in December. Jean, 2 and 1 in the UFC, he's coming off a split decision loss to Rob Font back in February when he stepped in on very short notice to take on Rob Font. And straight up, I thought he beat Rob Font. Not a robbery, very competitive fight, very strong finish for Font. But I scored the first two rounds for John Mazzamoto.

I think he should be 3 and O. Also, he's one of my boys, very biased against him. I was super hype on John Matsumoto coming off contender series. I think he has looked very, very solid. And sort of a classic prospect loss to Rob Fon in a fight, I thought he should win. It takes no shine off him. Miles John's hard fight. Not here to say he's not.

I mean, the man is a tough test for just about anybody, veteran presence in there. But I think Matsumoto's still getting so much better. He's too crispy. He's too fluid. He's too fast. And I think John Matamonos can get this done. So this is the second leg of the parley tied in with Steve Urseg. And we will get to that third leg in the very near future.

But before we get to that, we have to get to a middleweight contest. The opening main card about Eric Anders taking on Christian, Leroy Duncan, Anders. Big underdog plus 425. The comeback on CLD minus 560 as your betting favorite. Anders on a two-fight winning streak, though. TKO went over Chris Wyman in December following a unanimous decision went over Jamie Pickett, I think like in March of that year, if I'm not mistaken.

Leroy Duncan, 4 and 2 in the promotion, unanimous decision went over Andre Pooleev in March following a unanimous decision loss to Robocop Gregory Rodriguez before that. Like Feeley, Anders just feels totally washed to me. Maybe that's unfair. I don't know, but he just seems like he is not not washed, if that makes sense at all. Like he'd be Chris Wyatman. It's Chris Wydenman at this stage of his career.

I don't know what to make of that. CLD should be more dynamic, more mobile. You know, I just feel very confident in him getting the win here. Also considered him as a climb, frankly. Just thought about it and was like, you know what? No, we don't need to, we don't need to hurry up the mountain. I think Andrew's going to lose. Feel really, really confident that CLD is going to get it done.

But I just don't need that much action this weekend, specifically because it keep losing. So we're passing on this one. But if you're climbing, you can do a lot worse than CLD. frankly, I probably should have thrown CLD in the parley instead of Steve Versaig, but it is what it is. It's how we've done it. That's fine, kids. Moving on to the prelim cards, another huge favorite here. Julius Walker minus 620 versus Hafeel, Serchiera, who is a plus-490 underdog in their light heavyweight contest.

Walker, one fight in the UFC, one loss. Alonso Minifield in February by split decision. Sir Kiara, 0 and 2 in the promotion. TGAO lost. to Modestis Pekowskos back in February. I don't remember who it was he fought before that, but they also knocked him out. And it appears that if you punch him in the face,

he will fall over and die. Julius Walker is not great, but he probably can punch R.C. in the face and knock him over and die. That being said, this is an enormous price for a very unproven fighter in Julius Walker. There's no chance you could lay it. Similarly, I'm not trying to bet,

Cirqueira, as an underdog at these prices. This is a stone cold pass for me. didn't even look at, you know, under, over under props, trying to take some unders inside the distances. Just don't need to be involved in this because I'm involved in the next one. The last fight I'm involved in this weekend is a Banimway contest as Elijah Smith takes on Toshiyomi Kazama, Kazama. Smith, minus 650 betting favorite,

Kazama plus 500, Smith 1-0 in the UFC. The Nantz decision went over Vince Morales in February. Kazama, one and two in the UFC. Two-fight losing streak to start. start coming off road D.OFC, but then triangle choked Charlamos Grigoryo back in August to get his first dub in the octagon. I will be totally honest. I had no recollection that Kazama had fought in the UFC, much less that he had fought three times already on top of being a road DFC contestant. I have a ton of recollection about Elizer Smith, who is one of my top graded prospects coming off the

most recent contender series season. I comped him to A.J. McKee. And, uh, I think that, like, he's just, he's explosive. He's dynamic. Great, like, great explosive wrestling finishes, you know. Needs a little bit more of a killer instinct, but I'm sure that will develop over time. And I think, you know, Vince Morales is a tough debut test, and he passed it quite well. Because I'm a big step back. I think we're going to see Elijah Smith role.

And so he's the last leg of that parley. It's Elijah Smith, Jean Matamato, Steve Erseg. The three of them pair together. pay at about minus 120 total. So that's my parlay, and we'll move very quickly to the last three, I guess they're four-ish fights, but three fights to talk about Jocelyn Edwards taking on Priscilla Casuala in a women's bantamweight contest. Edwards minus 340, Caschewara plus 270.

Edwards on a two-fight winning streak. TKO win over Chelsea Chandler back in April. Casuala 3 and 2 or 5, but coming off a knockout win of Yuzzi and Nunez back in March. hard to feel good about this fight in any regard but edward's going to win i think she's simply going to outwork casua but casua she can make it brawley she can make it scrappy edwards much more technical fighter i believe but um i think this fight can just end up being close i honestly wouldn't even hate an underdog play on casua because i think she can just kind of make this fight ugly and you never know what judges will do in a fight like that.

But I don't ever feel that great about underdog betting Priscilla Casuarra. So pass for me, but dog or pass kind of situation. That takes us to our penultimate fight to discuss Uros Medich, taking on Gilbert Urbina in a welterweight condes. Medich, three and two of his past five, knockout lost to Punisoriano back in January. Urbina, one and two in the UFC, knockout lost to Charles Radke in February. And frankly, that might be enough to tell you what it is. One of these lost to Punis Soriano, who has been a revelation at Welterweight, one of the loss of Charles Radkeke, Chuck Buffalo,

scrappy fighter, I would not say is like the best welterweight alive. Medich never gone to the cards. Man is coming to get a finish or get finished. Urbina has, so I can't even feel like kind of Loki a lot too. So I can't even feel great betting and under here. I think Medich is going to win this. with straight up with his aggression. But also,

Eros Medich is not like a dude to feel massively comfortable in at a pretty big price. So at best, I think these odds are maybe, like maybe a right on the money. But at plus 400, like, I don't need to throw them in a parlay. We're just good here.

So I'll watch. I think the fight will probably be pretty fun because it's Neros Medich fight. They're always fun. That takes us to the last fight of the evening. Maybe not the opening. I'm seeing on the UFC website, website Cody Brundedge Eric McConaico is up there, but I don't see that anywhere else.

I don't know if that fight's falling off at the time we're recording this, but there are no odds out for it. So we'll see how that goes. So the last fight we're going to talk about is a women's flyweight contest between Gabriella Fernandez and Julius Stoliorenko, Fernandez, minus 440 betting favorite. I told you guys, huge favorites on this card. Stolia Ranko plus 340. Fernandez started out with a two-fight losing streak, now on a two-fight winning streak in the

UFC coming off. One of the biggest upsets in UFC history from a mathematical standpoint, they hear technical submission over Song Wang back in November. I think it was like a song was like a minus thousand or something. She's an enormous favorite and was kicking the shit out of her until suddenly she wasn't. And Julius Dolio Ranko is just not UFC caliber. She's two and five in the promotion at TK lost to Launa Carolina in February. She's just not good.

Fernandez should win this fight. she can compete on the feet and she can get the fight to the floor, I think, if she needs to. But maybe it's just tough because Fernandez started out with two losses and then was well on her way to her third before the songwang sort of miracle comeback. I can't, I can't lay this price on her. I simply can't do it. And so that is why I'm passing. So a very light week for me, Steve Urseg by sub, a flyer, Yasmin Lucinda, Christian Rodriguez, straight up. a parley of John Matsumoto, Elijah, Smith, and Steve Erseg.

And then the climb, your main event, Fluffy, Anthony Hernandez, minus 350. I think at the minimum we're climbing this week. Hopefully we could just win. Few bets, maybe we can win. We can get a win under our belt and start feeling good heading into UFC 319, which is my time to shine, baby. Drickus Duplessi, Hamzaa Chimae, middleweight title fight. D inch, like weird card the rest of the way,

but actually pretty interesting at least. And that main event, hot fire, cannot wait for it. We will be back then and we will have a guest next week to break down all the pay-per-view action as we almost always do for pay-per-views. Thank you for listening this week. And love y'all.