MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Will Belal Muhammad And Valentina Shevchenko Retain Their Titles At UFC 315?

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

The UFC is back in Montreal. This Saturday, the UFC is headed back to the 514 for UFC 315 which goes down at the Bell Centre and is headlined by a pair of title fights. In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko puts her newly reclaimed flyweight title on the line against the surging Manon Fiorot, and then in the main event, Belal Muhammad puts his welterweight strap up against rising contender Jack Della Maddalena. And, of course, No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Canada's favorite son, Alexander K. Lee, to dive into all things UFC 315. Topics discussed include whether Della Maddalena can offer Muhammad any real resistance, whether Shevchenko should be an underdog to Fiorot, the GOAT Jose Aldo, which underdogs are live on Saturday, the latest updates on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 127 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠ Follow Alexander K. Lee: ⁠⁠⁠@AlexanderKLee ⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No, Bets, Bard. I'm sorry.

That's number one MMA betting podcast, No Betts Bard, per the fine, the wonderful folk at whatever they rank this. I'm sorry, million podcasts. That's right. And mostly thanks to y'all for tuning in and listening to. us be quite silly here. I am of course your host, Jedmishu, mbathighton.com, great website. And we are here today to talk about UFC 315,

a pay-per-view card that I think is a lot better than people are giving it credit for. But most importantly, it's a pay-per-view card that's happening in the 51st state, some have started calling it, the Great White North, the frozen tundra that is Canada. And so, of course, if we're going to Canada, we hear no bets bar,

we are going to bring Canada's favorite son to us. I'm speaking, of course, of the king of the North. Mr. Alexander Cayley, A.K., how you doing? How excited for 315 are you? I'm good. I'm excited an appropriate amount for the UFC's return to La Belle Provence, Montreal. I am not there.

I apologize to anyone who is hoping to see me there or, I don't know, hoping just to watch me and make fun of me. I am not there. Jose Young's is there. You know, he's, he's on there doing his usual video stuff. Guys, I don't do that stuff. I don't do that stuff. So we're always very happy and very excited to have Jose on site.

The guy is a workhorse. And frankly, I'm kind of happy to stay home sometimes. Often. I'm a house mouse, Jen. Buddy, I understand. Hold on. It has, I love me just, it has nothing to do with the quality of this car. I'm sure that's what I'm like, man, he lives in Canada.

He didn't want to go see this car. I would love to go one. Belal Mohammed's next hell defense. I would love to watch Valentin de Shipschanko's next hell defense. I think this card is fine. I'm not going to tell you guys this card is amazing. It's fine. You've got the two title fights at the top. You've got name value on it. You've got local. You've got Canadian fighters. Like it checks off most of the basic boxes. It's just nothing. There's just nothing I feel like that's taking it to the next level. And that's okay. That's okay. I am curious how the sales are going to go. We have seen some

images go around social media of ticket sales, not. I think it's going to go too hot. Yeah, I don't know. I just thought them returning would be so good. But then people reminded me the last time they were in Montreal because I think it was supposed to be a different fight and we ended up getting Demetius Johnson headlining. And God loves Demetrius Johnson.

We all love them. Not the biggest paperview seller, not the biggest ticket mover. And so the last time they went to Montreal, it didn't sell out. So maybe it shouldn't be a big surprise if it doesn't sell it this time. Honestly, it might be a reason they haven't back. That was 2015. So a full decade. since April 25th, 2015.

So a full 10 years since the last time they showed up at the Bell Centre. That was, of course, supposed to be Hindenborough, T.J. Delishaw. But instead, that fight fell off and the co-main of it was elevated as DJ took on Kioji Horaguchi. And, you know, if you are a fan for them, if you're a deep, you know a deep-seated fan, you know what happened. Something fantastic. The latest finish in MMA UFC. history as DJ submitted Kioji Horaguchi with literally one second remaining on the clock. So that kind of drama should want you to come back.

But it doesn't seem like it. I don't know. Maybe it's because the promotion has aligned itself with the man who has threatened to annex your fine country and ours. Perhaps people aren't that stoked about it. But I don't know. Perhaps it's also just that we can be honest, the top four fights. they're very good fights. These are high-level fights. I'm excited to watch them. They are not what I would call packed with charisma. When Belal Muhammad is the best person you're bringing to the charisma game,

something is afoot here because Belal Muhammad has never been really somebody who's that appealing in that regard. Jack Delamadalina, a void of charisma, Valentina Shvchenko, long-time champion, but not the most interesting person to get on a mic and Monofiore mostly quiet. It's just this is one of those cards set up to not be appealing to casual fans by any respect. Though I do think the hardcore fans and certainly myself, there's a lot to like about this card. But, AK, I don't judge you for not going. The U.C. is coming to Atlanta in like a month and a half and I kind of don't even want to go. And it is literally two miles from my house.

That's a good card. It's not a bad card. It's literally two miles from my house. I'm like, that'll be such a pain. I'll have to go. I'll have to leave my house. I could just watch these, eat my own food, use my own bathroom. It'd be so much easier.

So I get it. I totally get it. But, A.K., we've got, before we get into UFC 315, we do have a little bit of housekeeping to do, mainly that is just talking about last week, UFC Des Moines. So, you know, they travel from the Midwest and just went north a little bit to get up to the Great Canada. And Corey Sandhagen, great performance against Davis and Figurato. Most importantly, my guy, Geniead de Hider, aka Reiner de Ritter, aka the Dutch Knight, defeats Boe Nickel. Knockout, second round TKO there suddenly surging, aka I down money last, I'm down money on the year.

losing week last week, but RDR did his best to bring me back from the brink. And so I end up only losing a unit still down overall on the year, just under 10 units. Actually, no, I'm sorry, 10 units exactly on the year of loss. So we're trying to dig ourselves out of the hole in AK. I don't know if it's going to happen this week because not to spoil anything. A lot of underdogs that I like this week, AK, a lot of, a lot of juicy. lines I'm seeing out there and a couple of options for the climb. So we will get into all of that as we go on, but A.K., anything you want to say about U.C. Des Moines before we dive into this

week's action. I'm up. I was up on my one bet. Peterson Mays to start round three. There we go. It's one of the greatest bets of that time. I made one bet. Surprisingly, there were some hairy moments because Peterson was kind of like in control the whole time. You felt like he maybe should have ended that. He definitely should end in the third. But what he did in the third, you're like, man, if he had done that five minutes ago, do it earlier. Probably would not have gone to a decision.

So it wasn't like the most comfortable one, but it just on paper, you're like, that's, that's going to a decision. That's going. It does scream heavyweight overs. And it absolutely delivered on that. All right. Enough of that because I, look, I do actually like this. weekend's card. Again, no real big draw if you're a casual fan, but you were getting two title

fights. You know, Bala Muhammad is the best well-to-weight on the planet of Earth. Valentina Shepchenko, the best women's flyweight, you know, the best women's flyweight ever, one of the top 10 fighters, you know, across any gender of all time, undeniably. And both are getting legitimate tests. So let's dive into the main event, A.K. Belal Muhammad, taking on Jack, Dela, Madeline. Lina. Muhammad on a six-fight win streak, though he's been unbeaten for like 12. He had the weird no contest with Leon tucked in the middle of that run.

Coming off, of course, the unanimous decision went over Leon Edwards to win the Walterweight title. Jack Della, 7 and O in the UFC. Big long layoff, like a year-long layoff, right? Had some injury concerns. Last fought at USC 299 when he T-Ked Gilbert Burns in a fight that he was well on his way to losing before that comeback sort of got authored out of nowhere. little bit. He gets to call up basically because Shavkat Rokmanov is hurt, cannot compete.

Shavkat was supposed to fight. Obviously, Balal in December at U.S.C. 310. Ballal was forced out with a foot injury. Shavkat stayed on. Apparently, by all accounts, he was injured even heading into that, but the injury got a bit exacerbated against Ian Machado, Gary, and his win could no longer do it. And so Jack Della, you know, great timing. Just really the beneficiary of some great time he gets here. Below Muhammad, this line moved since I first took my notes. It is now around minus 175 for Muhammad. The comeback on Madalena plus 150.

Money has been coming in on Jackie three names here, AK. People thinking he is a live dog as we get closer to the event. How do you see this one going? Yeah, I support that, I guess. It's fun. It's fun to bet underdogs, especially guys like, you know, J.D.M. who, Gilbert Burnsman was really good. You know, it's a shame we have not seen him since.

Even the circumstances of it, I know, I know people who are skeptical of him will say, well, he was losing most of that fight, but this is why fights are three rounds, 15 minutes long. You know, what happens at the conclusion that fight is, to me, is just an important what happened in the first 10 minutes, right? So he's a legitimate challenger, very fun underdog. Puncher's chance, got a puncher's chance. It's always very appealing. I was a little, I'm a little surprised here.

So, Jed, I actually have a lot of questions for you on this episode. People know I'm not, I'm not an avid gambler. So, like, I feel like I have a pretty firm understanding of a lines. But some, it's a lot on this card surprised me. So, Balal, favorite, obviously. I think it's around, like, what, like, 2 to 1, no matter where you look, somewhere like minus 200 or over, right? 2 to 1.

So the numbers come down. He's a little less than 2 to 1 now in those places. Oh, yeah. Okay, I'm looking at Fanduel right now. I see minus 188. But same idea. He's about a 2 to 1 favorite. That's close to 2 to 1.

Yeah. It's a little under, but yes. Muhammad by decision Let me see This might have changed too But when I last checked It was plus 105 on Fandual Now

Now it's plus 115 That's actually even better odds now That's weird to me Because if you're picking Muhammad to win I guess any I guess it's always If you're picking

Like that should be almost be the same to me Like I know that's not how it works It would never just be like You know if it was minus 200 to win It's minus 200 win But I know that's not how these things work It still feels like, I guess I'm just saying, if you're picking Ballol, just pick the points. I really struggling to see him finish JDM.

I know he's saying all the right things about having Canelo Hands. So what you're saying is you don't believe in Canelo Hands, Ballam. I don't believe in Camelo Hands. You could even make a case like, oh, his wrestling will be so much for JDM that he'll wear him down by the fourth or fifth round and get a submission. I don't really see that happening either. I don't know. It is hard to say because I don't, you know, we haven't seen. I should have looked at this before.

Has JDM gone to five rounds? No. So in his entire career before UFC, never gone past the third round. He's been in championship fights. I believe he just finished them all, so we never got to see that. So if you are picking a late finish,

I get it. I see the appeal of a K.O. or sub prop. But I just feel like the safe bet here is a ball all by decision. You're getting a very slight plus money. So totally understand it. I have, in fact, just taken Bala Muhammad at minus 175 because I totally understand your logic.

The counter I will offer is the difference between a minus 175 payout and a plus 105 payout is not particularly substantial for me, right? So, like, if you are betting a hundred bucks on a minus 175 payout, you're going to get 57, you know, like that's, like, roughly. whereas the you are, and that's now accompanying all the possible other outcomes. JDM gets tired in the later rounds, Ballal comes on strong, Ballal is Canelo hands and comes out and blows the doors off him, injury. And so you're losing certainly some value.

I don't, if the plus money isn't closer to 200, I usually just like to take the straight action to cover my bases, especially because there's a part of this that I'm, concerned, maybe not concerned isn't the right word, interested to see if the old adage is true, because there's a longstanding adage in boxing that then ported over to MMA. Once you become champion, you get 20% better, right? Like you, once you win the title, you are elevated because of X, Y, and Z. You have more resources.

You have more confidence. You know, MMA is entirely a confidence game. You've achieved the top of the mountain. and you are just, you're going to go up from here, at least for a little while. Bala Muhammad took a long road to get here. Wouldn't be surprised if he is the best Bala Muhammad we've ever seen come Saturday. And mostly, I am with you. I do, I think the most likely outcome by far is that Balaahmahman wins a decision.

But he's going to have a lot of time to just work Jack Della over on the floor because that is why I feel so confident in winning. A.K., honestly, I was so confident I considered the crazy notion of just going ball as the climb this week, even though, just because, like, Jack Della can't wrestle, and, like, I feel like people are forgetting that, or I must be wrong because this line seems so much closer to me

than it should be. Like, this is not an isolated incident of, ooh, one time Jack Della Madalena had bad takedown defense. Like, no, I mean, statistically is take down defense is like good except for the fact that we have seen him Gilbert Burns got him down seven times right like Basel Hafez got him down like four times or whatever. And Basel like nobody knew who Basel Hafez was.

He steps in and he takes him down a bunch. Gilbert took him down a bunch. Ballal is by far a much superior wrestler. Also is at least realistic. He is not just I must, he's not Bo Nicol where he must spam takedowns because it's the only weapon he has. He can compete on the feet and mix in his takedowns. Leon Edwards is a much, much better historically defensive wrestler than Jack Della Madalena has been. And Ballal took him down repeatedly and with ease. I think that this fight, unless Jack Della comes out

and lands something really early or unless he almost overnight became an unbelievable defensive wrestler, the likes of which we've never seen, for the last year he has done nothing. but defensively wrestle, then maybe, but I just don't see it. I think Ballal is going to come in. He's going to mix the martial arts, your favorite thing in the whole wide world, AK. He's going to score takedowns repeatedly, and Balal is pretty damn durable, too. Like, I don't think he's going to tire out and then just get clipped like Gilbert did.

He's just going to keep putting it on him. Wouldn't shock me if Belaw got a late stoppage here, but I mostly just think he should have the run of play. And so that's why I've got a bet on him. Okay. Oh, okay. I thought you were going to say there was some other twist in there. Yes, no.

I still like the extra. I like to say, it's not much. I still like, like, you know, just for fun. I think you should make it more interesting yourself and go with the decision. What if I'm like Canada's own Drake, Jed, and I'm putting like $2 million down. Is it worth? Then is it worth the extra juice? No.

Is it worse? The more money you're putting down the less. It's the less it would be worth it to me. Oh, okay. I mean, it's just all about your risk assessment. how much you want to to broker in. I really rarely want to do decision bets, particularly on five-round fights. Three-round fights, I'm more than okay with that, but just not, not for me, unless that's

going to be up to like the plus 200, not for me. How are you feeling about, well, I shouldn't even say how you feeling about it. If you're picking JDM, you had to pick by K-O, right? There's just no, anything else to be sensible. Okay. So that is 100% I am in agreement here. If you are backing JDM, you know, you're getting him at plus 145, plus 150 in multiple places. Jack Della, inside the distance, you're getting much better price at plus 275.

But realistically, you can probably just cut out the, you know, submission part of that and just go Jack Della by K.O., which is like plus 300. The difference between those two is so small, I would still just favor it inside the distance because plus 275 versus plus 300 is not significant. but yeah like if if you're a jack della supporter you think he's going to get it done you might as well take the prop it seems extremely low percentage that he would win a decision on saturday surprisingly only plus 550 for uh but went on points that i would think that'd be like plus 1,000 or something like oh that's he's not going to win a decision other thing i do want to note on this fight uh the alternate overs here honestly strongly considered the minus 400 as a possible climb bet for the over two and a half in the alternate overs.

Those aren't available stateside yet, but some of the offshore that's down. Minus 750 for the one and a half. When that becomes available, that will be a parlay piece. So for me, a couple of overs, I'll be parlaying. Okay, let's move on to the co-main event. Valentina Shevchenko taking on Menon Fior. Fior, your betting favorite, minus 140. Shevchenko, the underdog at plus 120.

Shevchenko coming off her title reclamation over Alexa Grasso at USC 306 last year. Four, seven and O in the UFC, a unanimous decision win over Aaron Blanchfield in March. Interestingly enough, AK, both title fights feature a new champion defending against a seven to no rising prospect who last fought in March. Very, very curious thing that I noted as I was doing, that both Jack Della, Madelena and Menofior kind of fit into those little buckets. But, A.K., we've talked about this little off air, so I certainly think I know where you're going.

I think most people who listen to this pod or any of the M.A. fighting shows can suspect where I will be. And so I will just tip it and say, AK, I'm backing my girl Valentina Shavchenko at plus money odds, because of course I am. This is crazy. How is she? I don't understand why she's an underdog. And I say this as a fan of Menon.

someone who is, I think, relatively speaking, scouted Menon pretty early, like before UFC. I mean, she got, she had quite a bit of buzz going. I would say, like, her second to last fight for the UFC. Like, there was, there was, she wasn't like a hidden gem, I think to the hardcore fans. They knew like, oh, this woman is definitely going to, you know, when the chance comes, she's definitely going to come to the UFC.

So, but even saying on this, all the support I have for her, like, I've always viewed this as sort of like a mandatory defense. I know this sounds so disrespectful, but like, you know, I want to have Mano Philo Road to get this title challenge a long time ago. I just don't know, and she's good, she's good. I just don't know what people saw in Shevchenko's recent appearances that they would say, like, oh, she's really lost a step, and now Manon is going to be the one to sort of dethrone her.

Like, in both the subsequent agrosso fights, like, we saw Shevchenko, I think is clearly the better fighter than Luxe Grasso. And thus clearly, like, a vastly superior. fighter at 125 pounds to almost anyone. Now, I know this is why we fight the fights. Like, it's stupid to just dismiss a challenger, especially one who's 7 and O has clearly earned her spot. But I'm very surprised Valentin is the underdog.

Once again, with Balal, I'd rather take the Venture Chavchengo by decision. I'm seeing plus 220. So I would say people want to be safe and do it straight up. That's better. That's much better than the Blah by decision. Definitely better than the Bilal one, yeah. Yeah, much bigger gap there. There's like, because again, I don't know how.

how else people think, if you're picking Valentina, I'm not sure what other method you're expecting. I don't think she chaos Menon. It's always hard to say because Mano has never been finished, which doesn't mean she can't be. It's just, we just don't know, well, like, is she susceptible to one method or another? So if you want to go crazy, you go, like,

Schenko submission. That's, like, plus 8.50. But I always think those submission props are that way for a reason. Like, it's just such a crazy thing to throw on. So maybe, K.O., but, I mean, I don't know, guys. I say just decision. If you guys are with me on the Schifchenko train, I say go decision plus 220.

It seems pretty obvious. I really like that bet in general, certainly much more than the below one. I am on Shevchenko, like I said, at Underdog Plus 125. I think the reason the line is this way is the way their fights have unfolded recently. Manaw has proven to be just a hoss, really, really difficult to take down. And against Grasso, Shevchenko relied a lot on getting the fight to the floor and just sort of overwhelming her with physicality. seems less likely to be an option here with fewer. But I don't think that fewer poses a great striking risk.

Like that's my sort of other side of that coin. Yeah, Chivchenko has always, frankly, done her best work, just kind of big brother and women to the floor and then beating him up there. And I do think that that will be very difficult for her to do against Fior, just what we've seen. Not impossible or very difficult. Fior is just I've never I never got on the bandwagon

I think Fior is obviously a good fighter but part of it is just you know every fight is a decision it's hard for me to really gravitate toward somebody like that but I mean the Rosamahunis decision I think she won I don't think that that was like the most convincing

performance Aaron Blanchfield who I am a huge supporter of is obviously still very limited basically if you can stuff Aaron Blanchfield's take downs you can beat Aaron Blanchfield and that's what Manoca do. Valentina is so good at slowing fights down to fight at her pace on the feet, just managing range in a way that Fior's like pretty rote kickboxing.

I don't think, this fight could be really close just from a judging perspective. And in a fight like that, I definitely want to favor the experience of one of the greatest fighters of all time, someone who knows how to eke out those small edges in big moments. and, you know, if Fior was, like, super young, then I might be like, okay, maybe she's just due to really, she's just out-athletes her, because I do think Shepchenko's falling off a little bit. If you're 35, you know, like she's, she is relatively young, certainly in fight years, but I think that this is probably going to be mostly tepid kickboxing, some, and a fair amount of clinch work, really close rounds in spots. And I don't think Fior's going to do enough to pull away from Shibchenko. And I do think Shipchanko can pick up enough edges and enough spots to win this fight. This is not going to be anybody's fight of the night.

But I do like Shepchenko. I certainly like her by decision. I don't think either woman is liable to get a finish. And, AK, this brings us to the first question of the evening. It's not really a question so much as it's part of one whole question. That whole question is the climb. is a k for new listeners thank you for showing up

this is your first episode the climb is my baby it's the greatest project going on in all the sports betting right now as far as I'm concerned as my attempt to parlay 30 consecutive bets together

rolling them over one over one into another guidelines are roughly minus 500 you'd be a little up a little south of that you want to be in that and this fight offers us

a potential here because not available yet, but the alternate overs on this fight, over one and a half is a big number. It's minus 1,400. Obviously, we can't take that.

The over 2.5 is minus 650, which is like we could take that and call that reasonable enough, and the over 3 and a half is minus 450. We've got two other potential climb bets this week, but I just

want to put this into your head if you have a reaction immediately to it. We certainly talk about it. The over two and a half here, minus 650 or the over three and a half here, I think both feel really, really likely to hit. I agree. I think we can do better. I think we can do better because I think, again, there's a fight on this card, I feel like, is made to continue the climb.

This fight exists. This fighter exists, Jed, to keep your climb going. So we will get there. We will get there. There's certainly a good bet. It certainly makes this fight more intriguing. Like, if you're just, you know, of course, if you guys are playing at home and you're just, you know, gambling is supposed to be fun.

That's all the reason we do this. I hope you're not out there betting trying to make millions and put food on your table. Please don't do that. It's just, yeah, especially for a card like 2.15, some of these fights, you know, I know. People are like, they're not that intrigued by them. You know, so, yes, yes, Jed. Make your own fun. Make your own interest.

So, yes, Jed, if that's what it takes to put this Svchenko-Fioro fight over the top for you and just make it a little more palatable, but just push you through when we're in that six or seventh hour of watching MMA, it makes sense. I'm waiting to see what the line looks like when it drops on on a domestic book that I have access to it's extremely likely that the over three and a half if it's you know minus 400 minus 450 is extremely likely I will take that as a climb bet I just find it really really unlikely that either woman scores a finish here I mean minoviro has never been finished, right? She has the one lost in her

MMA debut has never been finished. Let me confirm this before I say something out of my ass, but I'm pretty sure she's never been knocked down. Let me make sure I'm not. Yeah, never been knocked down. I mean, only has one, you know, knockdown or two knockouts in her

UFC career. Shevchenko certainly has the ability to knock people out. I mean, but that hasn't even really manifested itself all that much, right? Like her last four fights, the three against Lexa Grasso, Tyler Santos, Lauren Murphy, sort of an atritive win in the fourth round

in a way that I'm not sure she's going to be able to do. The Jessica Androge fight is the big one, but again, I don't think she can be able to hawsman all like that. So three and a half is the over here. Really, really tempting. And, oh, or if I just want to be a little safer, the two and a half, minus 650 wouldn't be the worst. So I'm certainly looking out.

If I don't, that'll be parlayed up with the Belaw JDM over one and a half and a couple of other pieces tucked in there. Let's move on to the worst fight that has ever been booked in UFC history. I mean, this is really a monumental stuff. The goat, Jose Aldo, taking on Amin Zahabi in a bantamweight contest is our feature bout of the evening.

Aldo. He's one and two over his past three since returning to the UFC from his retirement. Both of those losses were pretty questionable. I guess he's actually one in one since returning and then the Marab fight was the one that precipitated a retirement. Morab fight was garbage. The split decision lost to Mario Batiste at U.C. 307's the last time we saw him out.

A lot of people do not believe he lost that fight. The judges did not agree. I won't say robbery. I will say garbage. Zhabi surging. Five-fight win streak. Unanimous decision went over Pedro Munoz back in November to break into the rankings and get himself this opportunity against the.

The Goat, Josie Aldo, aka everyone who's ever listened to me speak or podcast should know exactly what I'm doing. But what about you? How do you feel about the feature about? Aldo by Keo. Aldo, that's all I want to say. Let's have some fun. Listen, all of due respect to my fellow Canadian, the highest build Canadian on the card,

Mr. I'm a hobby. Of course, from the illustrious tri-star camp. He's working on his brother, Farras, his whole life, GSP. He, like, it feels like he's finally put it together. You know, he's finally put together this run. He's not a young guy. He's kind of young in fight years. But actually, even fight years technically, he started a long time ago.

Everybody on this card is 36. Manon is the youngest person in these, like, in these, like, top fights. And she's 35. And there's nothing wrong with that. And there's nothing wrong with that. All right. We respect veteran fighters, okay? But I mean, Joe's just so fun.

I'm seeing it now at plus five. 550 on Fando. I think when I wrote it down, yeah, when I wrote it down, it's plus 500. I mean, now I'm not saying I'm betting this. Let me put this away. I may just stay away from this. I may use although,

I may just use picking Aldo, like straight up as a parley piece. That might be the smarter thing to do. But, although my CO would be fun. And I, you know, anyone, you know, we should tell people, Jan, as we're recording this. We're fresh off media day. So I don't know how much you care about what fighters say.

I mean, sometimes it gets to me. Sometimes they say stuff. Like, you know, Jose was pretty mad about the protestifies. Like, oh, he was mad at himself. You know, he was just like, oh, I didn't do what I want to do. And you won't see me fight like that again. And when you hear that, you're like, maybe, maybe we see some of those class, like just Aldo combinations and flurries and bodywork. And he just breaks the hobby down, finishes late in the second, early in the third.

Like, it's been a while, right? It's been a while since we've seen Jose put someone away. How far back do we have to go, Jed? Not at bantam weight. Never at bantam weight. I never finished a Bantamway fight. And it's been six years since Hanato Moikano. U.S.C.

Also, by the way, so we're clear, Josaldo beat the soul out of Hanato Moikano, top ten. Guy who just fought for the lightweight belt in January. So it's been a while. Put respect on the man's name. Put respect on the man's name. It's been a while, but I feel like we're turning a corner here. I think he can get, I think he can get a finish.

And I know, and as a hobby has only been finished once. So this is like a really, the odds, let's point this way. The odds makes sense. Plus 550 is on point. Odds makers, you did a great job. That is where that number should be. I still like it. I still like it.

You could, you could, I like it. I don't know if I bet it, but I'm telling you people, if you love Jose and you want to have some fun with this fight, that's the way to go. Aldo, all of my knockout. Come on. I love it. I have Jose Aldo straight up minus 200. Okay. I'm glad I, you know, I didn't have the option to do this.

I was looking at the over two and a half as a possible. climb. It's minus 360. Aldo never finished a fight at Bantamoy. Zahabi, five and three hitting the overs. After Aldo came out, I was like, nope, because I want to root for, I don't want to be on a watch party on Saturday,

and Aldo's beating the crap out of Zahdi and have to be like, but please don't beat him too badly. Wait to knock him out for the last two minutes because I need it. I want to be fully locked into my guy, the goat, Jose Aldo.

And this, this isn't your overclimate. Jedd, we still haven't gotten to that. We're getting there. I'm telling you, we're getting there. We still go there. There's another layering option, at least the I see. Of course. As far as this goes. We'll keep teasing it. We'll keep teasing it.

But, oh, I don't have to tease it because it's in this very next fight here. Alexa Grasso, taking on Talia Silva, Nanny Ice. Your betting favorite mine is 220. Come back on the former flyweight champion Grasso plus 180. This is Grosso's first fight back since losing to Shevchenko.

UFC 306, obviously, losing the title. Natty Ice, Mike Heck's favorite fighter, 6-0 in the UFC. Unanimous decision win over Jessica Androj back in September. Really good fight, AK, how do you see it going? I'm leaning towards Silva. I'm with my best friend, Mike Heck. I'm on the Natia Selva Hype train. I think she's fun to watch.

I think she's a fun personality. She's, I think, we were joking about the youngest fires on this card. She actually is, I think, one of the younger fighters, 28 years old. So she's right in her prime, still with room to grow. If, you know, if Shevchenko were to leave the flyweight division in the next, like, year or so, I think Natia Seva would be a great champion and a great person to carry this division forward. So we're all in on the hype. We're all in the hype. Now, she has an extremely tough test in Alexa Grasso.

People might be down on Grasso because, again, yeah, the second Chichengko fight wasn't great. The third Chichengel fight, totally dull, lifeless performance. But that's Chfchenko. I think losing to Shepchenko shouldn't knock you. down that much. So, um, a little surprised that she's a pretty, pretty, uh, you know, firm underdog. Um, but again, that's because of her. That's because of the Natty Ice hype train. Okay. I'll just say if you're going Grasso, I like points. Grasso plus 300, win my decision. And if you're going Natty Ice, I think I would package her with, you know, I just mentioned Aldo.

I think I'd package her with Aldo. There's possibly a, Brazilian's versus Canadians parlay to make here. I believe there's three, I believe there's three, four fights, yes, four of fights that are Brazilians versus Canadians. Wow. Can Canada defend the homeland? I think, it's a weird split though, because I think it is two underdogs and two favorites. Oh, it might be three underdogs. I mean, Natty Ice actually might be the only favorite now that I'm looking at it. But yeah, if you want to get, oh, no, we just said Jose Aldo, sorry.

So two favorites, two underdogs. I think the two prelim fights are favor of the Canadians. But again, if you're having a little fun, if you're, if you're a Brazilian fan, you want to add a little juice and you feel confident in some of these outcomes. Bruno Silva, Mark Andre, Ballo, I think it's pretty close, so it's whatever. Maybe you do that four-fight parlay. Maybe you take one of those legs out. Maybe you take it one at you're not comfortable with. But I do like, I do like packaging.

Maybe just do two legs. Maybe you just do Aldo, Natty Ice. I think that's some fun. Look, tables, tables got four legs. If you take one of the legs off the table, which just collapses, you know, that's just, we're not building tripods here. Just keep that mind. I'll be honest. I think I don't know what to make of this fight.

Obviously, Mike has been so big on Natalia Silva. I think she's very talented. I don't know what to make of Alexa Grasso because I wasn't in on Alexa Grasso, and then she looked so good in two of the Valentina fights. I thought that the second Valentina fight, I believe I scored that a draw. I might have actually just out of I scored it for Grasso. I can't remember.

I'd have to go look that up. But certainly very competitive in that rematch. And then the third fight just had brought nothing to the table, which was so weird. So I don't know what to make of her. I think she's obviously improving with her grappling. And she's got that sort of like classic boxing that was her calling card. Natalia Silva, obviously much more athletic, Grasso, probably a little more technical. I just think the odds are a little too big here.

And so taking a shot on Alexa Grasso, I got her plus 210 because that's kind of where you can find it right now. I also, this AK, to me, this was the over two and a half here. It's minus 475. Grasso has hit this over in six of her seven fights, Silva in five of her six UFC bouts. Neither woman is just like a huge finisher, right? It's mostly decisions, a couple of finishes, but some of them even late finishes. And so I'm just kind of looking at this as like, this might be something we could do here.

So I still think to me the the Shevchenko Fiore is probably the one I'm more interested in, but I also want to consider this as a possibility for the climb. We can do better. I've got your climb to bed. Now, again, I've got a climb suggestion. I cannot make it like, oh, you should definitely do this,

because I would feel, it would be the worst feeling in the world if you took one of my bets, and it cost you. I think this already happened with, what, Roug-Rug and, uh, Yeah, but I wanted to bet Malachin. You just told me what I needed to hear about him, and then we lost. But now, but the thing is now, that was only like seven or eight steps. Those four steps.

Okay. We are 16 down. It would be a lot sad. I would feel terrible to see your hook break off of the cliff, and you flum it back down to the beginning. I don't know. I wouldn't feel good about it. So I just don't think we can do better. Okay.

We'll wait for more. I'm excited to see what else, because those are the ones I had circled. I'm excited to see what. what you're potentially throwing out here. But let us move to the final main card fight. A replacement fight has been lost on the knee, ruined my life. He didn't. My guy, Joel Alvarez, did.

The most anticipated fight that was on the calendar at this point for me, BSD versus Joel Alvarez is no more. BSD still on the card. Alvarez suffered an injury with drew replaced by former UFC fighter. Kyle Prepelech, I hope I got that right, Kyle. Kyle, pretty, pretty big underdog around plus 600

to come back on BSD around minus 900. A.K., how do you see the short-notice Canadian replacement fighter fairing on Saturday? Yeah, shout out to Kyle Prepalek. Welcome back.

Welcome back. The pride of Windsor, Ontario. Shout out to Windsor. Don't, people, please don't, just don't pick a straight underdog bet on Kyle Preppelak. It is, anything can happen in M.M.A.

Fine. If you're one of those people and you just love throwing money on plus 500 plus 600 plus 700 underdogs have at it but I I even with Benoit Santini kind of like you know falling in esteem suffered a couple of tough losses to ranked guys I still think he's like deserving of his own ranking I still think he might be a bit too much for Kaupapapalek but Jed the good news is there's easy money to be made here there's easy I let me make sure I'm reading the trail uh okay oh so I don't think I have

had this on Fandu. I thought I did. Okay. I can't remember which, I guess I had to, I was on fight odds.io, guys, obviously great website, collects a bunch of gambling sites information. I saw Preppelak over one and a half, sorry, to survive, to survive one and a half rounds, plus 165. Jet, he's very tough to finish. His career, only two submission losses. That's it, never been ca-oed, two submission losses. It hasn't been submitted in a long time, either. 2012, 2013, he got submitted back-to-back fights and said, never again. 12 years ago, he said, I never again, will never be finished again.

Kevin Lee was the last man to do it. That's a, that's a great fighter. I'd say that's a guy who, I would take prime him over prime Benwal-Wals-Sant-E. So over one and a half, again, depending where you look, I haven't found it on Fanduel yet. I can't remember. I think this might have been. I kind of like that. Yeah, I think this might have been BetOnline.ag.

I think, I think. But I saw it somewhere. That's, that's the offshore number. Bavada's got it at plus 160. He's going to, I think he's going to survive. If Van Juan Santini can knock out this tough Canadian in under that time, tip of the cap to him, I applaud him. But Prepar Luck is tough, man.

I don't know who exactly he's been fighting, but he's out there. And MMA, I don't care what level you're fighting at. If you can make it too, if you can avoid getting finished for this many years, that's a hell of an achievement. So, Kyle, I am believing in you to survive, even though we know BSD is famous for his first round, just berserk or style. We know this. We know this.

But maybe he won't, you know. BSD coming out this week saying his last two performances, back-to-back losses, he was his own coach. Seems like the worst idea I've ever heard. And the results were as one might guess, given those. Maybe he comes out a little bit more measured. You know, maybe he says he's with a coach now. I don't know who.

Maybe he, you know, comes out, takes his time. I kind of really like that. I think that's definitely a fun bet, which I'm probably going to deal with. It's intense. Yeah. We could get boring Benoit. Like you said, with coaching, he could be boring. We have seen this happened.

He wants to go to three, three losses in a row. Sometimes you got to do what you got to do to win. Johnny Walker, Michelle Pereira. We just saw Mike Malotte in his last fight. Like, sometimes you lose a fight. You're like, let me just chill. Like, let me dial shit back for a minute. And decision wins are cool too, you know.

Well, Austin Hubbard did it to prep a lick. Sometimes that's what you got to do. You got to just take him down or hold them. And, you know, survive in advance. that's got to get back in the win column. I kind of like that. I think I'm going to tail it, particularly because this will be a fight that is on the watch party, and so we can have some fun there,

aka we keep right on rolling to a man you just mentioned. Canada's second favorite son behind yourself, Mike Malott, taking on Charles Radke, aka Chuck Buffalo Malat, your betting favorite money has come in on Buffalo, by the way. So Malad is now down to like a minus 175 with the comeback on. on Radkeye at plus 145. How do you see Canada's best hope? Second best hope.

Jillian Robinson's Canada's best hope right now. But Mike Malott, the second best Canadian fighter that's active. How do you see him doing? I'm still a believer, I think, in Mike Malott. The hype was probably a little too big there for a minute, though I don't fault the matchmakers for putting him in there with Neil Magny. Like, that's just kind of for you.

He was winning them fight until I've literally, never seen a bigger collapse. Oh, boy. The most epic, just, like, you know, you hear about hitting the wall metaphorically. It looked like he actually hit a wall. His body just stopped working final 60. Something was in the air, that card. That was the card where the two women won.

Yeah, Gillian Robertson and Jasmine won. But all the men lost. I think there's four or five men that fought. All of them lost. Surrey City probably deserved to win, but came out on the wrong end of a split decision. can you do? So I'm still a believer. I'm still believer. I think I just like him as a parley piece. I'm seeing Mike right now at minus 205 on Fan duel. I don't know exactly the parley yet. Again, I've kind of got some parlay gags at the end. So, but I will say if you guys are,

again, if you maybe ignore my Brazil versus Canada thing. Maybe you put him with Natty Ice and Josie Aldo. I don't think that's bad. But I like him as a parley piece. Otherwise, stay away. There's some K. There's some like finish props, but they're not that intriguing to me. I think like KO, I saw it plus 270, sub plus 380. I don't know. KO plus 270 is just not that interested in me. So for me, this is stay away or if you have, if you're looking for another, like, pretty solid leg for a parlay and like you're just missing one, I think Mike is a good one.

I went for the under two and a half here. It's minus 150. And I just, I think this is just going to be aggression. I know Mike Mott had his sort of rebound, maybe be a little more measured against Trevin Giles last time out. Historically, he has been a kitchen sink kind of guy. I mean, his resume is basically all first-round finishes prior to the last, like, couple, with the Magny and the Giles fight.

He's going to come out slinging him. Charles Radke has always been down to clown when it comes to that. A bunch of first-round finishes as well. I think they're just going to come in. And I think there's a reason this is here, outside of it, just being Mike Milata's the Canada's next great hope, this is a good set-up fight to the game. you into the main card. They're going to come. They're going to throw hands. One guy's going to fall, and that's going to be it. So minus 150 for the under two and a half felt, felt pretty good to me.

And so I can just root for the violence as we move our way into the main card. We, though, AK, we move our way right on down to, I don't know what to make of this fight at all. It's certainly meaningful. I don't know how good it is, because one of the fighters in it is a question mark. I'm talking about the women's flyweight contest between Jessica and Drozzi and Jasmine, Jazzadivisius. Jazzavisius minus 290 betting favorite, the comeback on Drogh plus 235. And like I said, I don't actually, I'm sorry, that number has moved a little bit. It's close to minus 300 and plus 250, 245s at places. So I don't know what to make this fight, A.K.

I don't know what Jessica and Drog has left to offer. Sometimes it seems like she still got the juice. Other times she seems like she is completely washed. Where are we at with the former women's strawweight champion? Yeah, I mean, this is a flyweight, which is she's really been seeing some mixed stuff up there. I'm trying to think. So her last fight was a flyweight. Natty Ice lost, no shame there.

At strawweight, she's still so good. Like, Starweight, she's still clearly a top 10 fighter. Her last win at Flyweight was Lauren Murphy, not like ages ago, January, 2023. so, you know, a little over two years ago, not ages ago. I just don't love her at Flavit. I think there's, like, legitimate strength issues. I think anyone who's watched those fights can tell you that. So I'm definitely leaning towards just daficious.

Like I said, I would just parlay her with Mike Malad for a very modest parlay. I'm feeling pretty confident about that. And Josh, I should say, on, yeah, you mentioned a Fandul, minus plus 230 or plus 245, depending where you look. K.O. I see her at plus 515. And that is like for me if like if you really, really feel like Andrade has something left in the tank. But I said she hadn't want to fight at Flyway since 2023.

And I think it's been even longer since she's caowed someone at Flyweight. Let me just check it real quick. Because there's Lauren Murphy she beat. I say. Had there been. Caitlin Chukagian. Yeah. I guess I had just all the top of my head Chiquagian.

Back when she was still Chukagin, yes. Caitlin Serminard, back when she was still Chukagian, back when she was still Chukagian, almost five years ago, October 2020. So it's been a long. No, no, no. Cynthia Cavillo. Oh, Cynthia Cavillo. I'm sorry. Okay.

So 2021. A little over four years ago, three years ago, no. Four years ago. Four years ago. Four years ago. It's 2026. I don't know how time works. It's been a long time, guys.

2021, you do the math yourself. She has not chaos someone to fly away in a long time. So I'm pretty much staying away from this one. I don't even know, again, I'm probably not even doing the Malot. The Justice Officers Parlay. But if you feel like you need to bet on those two fights, I think Jed's, I think, Canada Parley. Yeah, I think you're right with the Malot one. I think the under.

That's what you do. Yeah. you're really recommending it under, right? Correct. I like that. And then, yeah, Andrage, I don't. I just can't find anything interesting on this fight, betting it itself. I just, like, briefly wanted to bet Androge, but I can't do it.

She is going to be so much small, and yes, Davosish. And she just hasn't looked good at flyweight in a long time. You know, obviously on a four-fight win streak, you know, just dominated my Buenos Aires in February. It really seems to be coming into her own. I think that this is pretty straightforward of Azadavis just takes Androge down by being way bigger than her. And Androge, while it was a good defensive wrestler, she has been physicaled and is not that great. If you do get her into those sorts of positions, you can really start to have pile up some success on her. So I think Jasmine is probably going to get this W.

I don't know. like it's hard to just find value in this fight outside of that you know jasmine's never been finished so that's the other thing I think she can be durable in the face of androge and Androge sneaky has been finished a ton in her career so I can't even be like jazdavis is by decision because she could lock something up on the floor just going to be a stayaway I don't think jasmine would be a terrible parley piece if you're looking for that but I just don't quite know what to make of it because I don't know where jessica and drudge is at

I think she should just be a straw weight, but she keeps doing this. And every once in a while she'll turn up a really good performance. Maybe Saturday will be it. I don't know. Let's move on to what I suspect is going to be quite fun for however long at last. A light heavyweight contest between Modestis and Ion Kutalaba Peckomodz here, minus 110. Either way we go. Bikowskis, four and one over his past five coming off the knockout win over Rafael.

Serkiera in February. Kutalaba, three and two over his past five, but he is currently on a two-fight winning streak and submitted Ibo Aslan back in February. Both men fought already this year, looking to get in for a second time. A.K., how do you see this one going? I'm amazed you didn't trip up over Ibo Aslan and Yvon Erslan. That is incredible stuff. This is why you're the number one gambling podcast.

That's why? Right. I was like, I was like, I was like, you know, I respect this guy a lot, but in my head, I was like, it's going to mess this up. It's going to mess this up. Nope. Practiced it.

Practiced it. You don't feel comfortable betting either guy straight up, right? I know he says to pick him. You don't have, you don't have. I'm betting you, I'm betting you and Kutalaba. Oh, you feel very strong. Like, you, I was going to ask. Do you have some inside?

I think you should be the favorite. I think you will tell me this. Yeah, I had another friend tell me this. He has him as part of a parlay. Like a very, I was like, and I was like, that looks a shaky leg to me. He's like, no, he's like, I think this is one of them. I mean, it could be a shaky leg. Like, I wouldn't like bet my house on it or whatever, but I think he should be a clear favorite.

Bikowskis, he doesn't really like to be pressured. And being Kutalab is going to come out and get in your face immediately. I think if Bukalab is win, it'll be because Kutalaba gasses out. Like, he just simply tries too hard early and doesn't get the finish. But I, looking at this, I thought, Ian Kutalab is should be the favorite. And they'll look through the odds. like to pick him, I guess people are really giving Modestis Pekouskowskis some credit here. You know, he got obliterated by Vitor Petrino who just walked at him and threw hard punches.

That's basically what Eon's going to do, though he'll also shoot like a billion takedowns in the process as well. And he's on a good little run, right? Like he obviously left the UFC after losing a bunch in a row. But this just feels like a fight that he, like the last time we saw a guy. who's going to fight like you on Kutalaba, who was Mikhail O'Luksechik, competitive fights, but decision, Oleg Seych won, I think Kutlaba is going to get a similar victory on Saturday.

Damn, okay, so you're straight, I was going to, I wasn't sure. I wasn't sure if people were going with that. Because for me, I just like a fight to end in chaos, but that's not much more value than like a pickum. I've seen it on Fanduil minus 145, so that's where I was going. But if you are confident in one of these guys, then by all means,

spit straight up. Don't worry about, yeah, fight. prop bets, they're not super valuable. So I am not sure. I think like these are like light heavy weight, light heavy, light heavy weighty, light heavy weights. And maybe I'm not giving Kuchelaba enough credit. Maybe I'm remembering too much of his sort of inconsistent wild card stretching.

He's definitely inconsistent. I, so I can't do it. I don't think I could ever bet him straight up in any fight. So I will go, like I would just go the fight to end in a chaos. But again, if you people are out there, smarter than me. and for some reason you have you feel strong lean either way. I don't think that's like a terrible way to go. Yeah, I was originally looking at like the unders and props.

And I'm just, I think if Bukowska's wins, it's going to be a decision. And I think if Kutalaba wins, it's going to be a knockout. So I don't know. Honestly, as you talked about it, I felt less confident in where I'm at. But we're here. So whatever, it's fine. moving on to the final bout of the middle prelim section. Navajo Sterling taking on Ivan Erslan.

Sterling and minus 300 betting favorite, Erslan plus 240. Both men have fought just once before in the UFC. Sterling, a contender series product who beat Tucco Tokos back in December, and Erslan lost his UFC debut to the aforementioned Ion Kutalaba back in September. So, AK, kind of weird fight. Not really sure why it's here. This feels like we could have moved Gillian Robertson to Canada, and this fight could have happened in Des Moines.

No one would have been that upset about it. But nonetheless, pretty good prospect of Navajo Sterling taking on a guy named Ivan Arzon. How do you see on this going? Man, I got nothing for this. Minus 2.15, knockle the distance. I don't know. Every finish is plus. Nobody knows what can happen

this fight, Jed. I have just helped people. This is, I thought about this for a second because I did want to have something to say about it. This is a late season NBA game between the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Wizards. Nice. You don't have to bet this.

If you are betting this, I will tell you right now. If you are betting this, please hit me up, reach out to me on Twitter at Alexander K Lee, and we can either celebrate like, am I, am I, am I? I believe you're one K. Yes, yes, I have Instagram's 2K. Alexander K. Lee on Twitter.

And please let me know, before Saturday, of course, your bet. We can celebrate an incredible call if you are able to nail anything related to this fight because I have no clue how it's going to go. Or we can get you some help. Either way, it's going to be a productive exchange, I feel. So, yes, all you Navajo Sterling, Yvonne Urslan betters out there, whether you're betting Erslan, Sterling, some other prop, go to distance, not go to distance, whatever. Let me know.

I'm very curious. what kind of person actually puts money on a fight like this? I think Sterling's going to win, and I have historically been betting. Sterling was a round one prospect for me off the most recent contender series. I have historically just been betting blankly on them just to sort of see how it goes after a year or two of doing so. I guess I probably will, just to keep that up. I don't have any real level of confidence. Sterling's still pretty raw.

He's not raw. He's actually fairly polished as far as a prospect, but he's just really really, really inexperienced. And I just don't know enough about even Erzlan. I obviously saw the one fight with Kutalaba, and that's, I remember doing some prep form then, but I just didn't have the time. And so I think Sterling's probably going to win. He is actually a pretty decent prospect for light heavyweight. I've Compton to Roy McDonald. He is a little bit polished, defensively sound, big dude, looks good getting off the bus, city kickboxing guy. So I think the odds make sense. I'll probably end up betting him just out of habit,

but not because I'm like he's definitely going to win, just because I have gimmicks, and sometimes you've got to roll with your gimmicks. Let us roll on to the prelim card. We just have three fights left to talk about, and I'm going to have progressively fewer things to say about the making. That's good. Middleweight up first, Mark Andre Bahrio,

taking on Bruno Silva, Bacchio, a minus 150 betting, favorite to comeback on Silva plus 120. MAB or Power Bar on a three-fight losing streak coming off the knockout loss to Justin Stolfez back in November. Silva, four-fight losing streak. Unanimous decision lost to Ishmael Nardiev back in October. I suspect A.K., this is a pink slip derby between these two gentlemen, particularly given that Silva has one win in his past seven fights.

And that win was the astonishing Brad Tvarez TKO out of nowhere. So they got to be fighting for their jobs on Saturday. Who gets to keep their job Sunday morning? Jed, why do I think Bruno Silva is good? Like, why do I keep? Am I so enamored by the Tavares knockout? And like the kind of very exciting start that Bruno had, like, to start. In the highs tricked us.

Right. I was thrilled. He blew the doors off some people who weren't very good. You look at those names, the Beverly Hills Ninja, Jordan Wright, who was just made to be finished in the UFC. God was awesome. But then he had like a competitive go against Alex Pereira. He went on to become Alex Pereira. And look, sometimes you get guillotine choked by Gerald Mearschart. That's just a thing that happens.

And then he killed Brad DeVars. And so even after the Mearshawr, loss, he kills Brad DeVaraz, a guy who's historic who had been very durable. And I was just like, all right, he's still something. And then it's just been four in a row, you know. And there are explicable circumstances here, right? Like Brendan Allen, really good. No shame in the losing of Brennan Allen. Sharra bullet, competitive, and he's Sharra bullet.

You know, like he's pretty talented, even if I don't know if he's good. Chris Wydennman, literally won by eye poke. Like, there's just, there's no way around it. Like on Wikipedia, on Tapology, it says technical decision, originally ruled the TKO win, but was changed to a decision. He won the fight by poking Bruno Silva in the eyes and the fight was over. Like, it's one of the weirdest things I've ever seen. And so that's certainly why he hasn't been cut.

the UFC giving him a favor because of he didn't make too big a fuss about them functionally cheating him out of a fight there. But then the Ishmael Nardia fight is just like, well, I don't know what to do. Is he just irreparably broken at this point? Maybe he is. I don't know, man.

I don't know. I almost can't believe Mark Andre's favorite. Again, it... I am with you on that, though. It's still weird. In fairness, he is, again, he is facing someone on a fourth... Like, anyone else in the division, almost anyone else's the division,

he's probably underdog. But I guess it's at home. He is Quebecwa. He is Quebecwa. He is facing a guy on a four-fight losing, one of the few fighters in the UFC in his division on a longer losing streak than him. So I guess the map, you know, just crunching the numbers he should be favored. But minus 158 is a lot.

Like this should be closer to a pick-up. This is so strange to me. So I like Bruno Silva by knockout plus 220. Always fun. But as you mentioned shit, it feels like a pink slip derby. which can lead to sometimes fighters not necessarily fighting their best being a little scared.

You know, they've got a lot in their minds. This could go to a decision. This could go to decision. I see by decision on Fandual plus 162. I understand people are looking at this. Both guys have finishing ability. I was going to say, had recent finishes.

Not necessarily. Well, they haven't won recently, so... Oh, the other issues, I'm sorry, yes, that Mark Andre has been knocked out twice in his last two fights, excuse me. So if you are picking a go-the-distance prop, you're probably a little, like, if you're listening to me, you're probably like, are you sure about that? You're probably pulling one of those faces. I think that's why the number is pretty good.

I think, like, plus one-s-sac-two is not bad for a go-the-distance. I don't know if I'm going to bet it. But I just have a feeling that this might not turn out to be a super-exciting middle-weight bout. I hope your feeling is wrong for all the things I said about. Bruno Silva. I did bet him by K.O. at plus 220. That's good. The way Bruno Silva loses is you tackle him, and that's not really what

Mark Andre Bechio does. They're both just going to come out. They're going to swing big hamhawks at each other. Bruno Silva never been stopped by strikes. Let me make sure I didn't totally lie when I said that, but I'm pretty sure that that's true. It's the note I have written down, but now I'm questioning myself. Yeah, never been

knocked out. Been submitted seven times. Never been knocked out. Conjay Barrio knocked out two in a row, one submission win to his credit. Seems very likely that this is going to be a striking contest. And I think Bruno Silva's got the, certainly at this stage of his career, better chin, faster, more power. And so Runosilva by K.O. plus 220, thought it was worth the extra juice than just the plus 120 as him as a straight-up underdog, AK. Two fights left. A featherweight contest is next.

Daniel Santos taking on Zhong Yong Li basically pick a mods here minus 115 minus 105 either side of it depending on your book Santos a two-fight winning streak unanimous decision winner

for Johnny Munoz in June and Jung Yong Li a two and one in the promotion a knockout loss to Heider O'Meal in July is the last time we saw him Santos has the most insane topology page you will ever see it is a wall

of gray text from him withdrawing from a million fights because we haven't seen him fight since June of 2023. A.K., should this be evenly lined given the long layoff and the historic injury history of Daniel Santos? I actually do think the line is right. My understanding would be that people just think Daniel Santos is the better fighter. But like you said, he's coming off some weird, you know, quite a bit of activity, several canceled fights. He's moving up to feather weight. He's fought there before,

like way, way back in the original scene. He's not moving up because any weight related. I think it's just, yes, he wanted to get a date in there as soon as he could. It might be weight related because he hasn't fallen in two years. Maybe he's just, this is true, you know? But he's given up a lot of size. Give him a lot of size to Lee. I am picking Lee. Yeah, I'm just picking Lee straight up. I think minus 118 on Fandul is not terrible. Lee's three inches taller, six inches of reach. Again, You said, I'll pronounce to pick them. I am going to pick them.

I'm picking them. And the pick-em-nam I'm doing is Jean-Yong-Lee. Don't hate it. I honestly considered it just because of the long way off for Santos and the fact that he's changing weight classes. A lot of things that I don't particularly like. I don't feel that confident and I have enough action. So just a pass for me. And that can bring us to the opening bout of the evening about that I'm certain you are prepared to spend long, long time talking about.

because one of your guys. The ultimate fighter, Brad Cotona. I'm sorry, the ultimate fighter. The ultimate fighter, as he is won, he won season 27 and season 31, and now Brad Cotona looks to get above 500 for this run in the UFC as he takes on Bexat Almekan.

Bexat, minus 175 betting favorite, come back on Cotona plus 145. Ketona coming off the unanimous decision, lost to John Matsumoto back in October, and Beskat lost his UFC debut, short-notice fight against little guy by the name of Umar Namakammedov, so no real shame in losing a short-notice fight to frigging Umar, AK is Brad Katona? Is he the ultimate underdog, along with being the ultimate fighter? Gosh, it's hard for me to say. Because I like Bexat, and Bexat looked good at moments against Umar, right? That's kind of like one of the reasons, um, that's kind of one of the things people held,

against Umar in his campaign to get a telefighter. I sure did. Oh, he could, she almost got, he got hurt by Beck's. And Beck's not good. Like that's one of those guys. I feel like if people have been paying attention to him on the regional scene, you'd like, oh shit. Like this guy is like, could be a top 15 guy in the UFC someday.

He's not a bad fighter. But I understand the optics of just coming in on short notice, you know, rocking a contender. Okay, I understand. So I think the odds are fine. I don't think that Tonya's being disrespected at all. I think you're disrespecting him a little bit, Jed. How?

You did not consider him for the Klein bet, it sounds like. At plus 140? No, sir, no, sir, no, sir. This fight goes the distance, minus 300. I mean, at that point, I would definitely just be looking at the over two and a half. Get minus 360 in there. Brad Catona does one thing. I don't know, I don't know.

I don't know. I don't know about this, Jed. The man goes to the cards. Like, it is extremely hard to be fighting as long as he has. You might be right. Like he has, okay, so he has one finish in the last, what, a little while, April 20, 21, he submitted a man. Even his second tough run for both the series before he was. Even in the tough house where he was clearly a notch above everyone else could not finish anyone.

I think this is a way. He finished Bryce Mitchell the first time in tough, but he did it four minutes into the third round. So it would be over two and a half is actually a hitter there too. There would be no more. Listen, if you're going to fall, there would be no more fun way. Right? You might be right, man. That's not bad.

The only time a fight of his hasn't at least gone into the third round where his first two professional fights, and they both in it in the first round. And since then, he has at least seen the third round every time out. I like to believe he has kept the scorecards of every fight he's been in because he'd have quite a wall of them of completed scorecards. This is incredible. Eighteen pro fights, guys. team pro fights. 14.

Next set has nine finishes in 11 fights. Sure. But guess what? He's never ran into Brad Cotoner before. All right. This guy,

he will take you to the cards. He will take you to the cards. He really will. I don't want to be responsible for this. I don't want to be responsible for this, Jed. But I'm glad it took us all the way to get here.

Because you had some, I think if you feel more comfortable about, was it Natty Ice and Grasso, I think that's great. And it was similar. Wasn't the number similar? Yeah. Yeah.

Oh, man. This is. Ooh, this is really tempting. You'd get it right out of the way. Like, imagine the first fight of the night. It's true. Brad Coton to the car, you're like, boom. I've not worried about the climb for us the night.

I've climbed. I've climbed, and now I'm just sitting. I've got a warm drink. I got my tent set up under my little, my little nook here, and I can just enjoy from my 17th, 17th step, 17th step, 18th step. This is 17th step. 17th step. That's very high.

You have a very nice view of the bell center for there. I'm just saying, and you could enjoy it. Man. Just think about it. That is really tempting. Think about it. Viewers at home, think about it. Brad Cotonah, if there's one thing.

I can't commit to this. I'm going to have to go watch BXAT fight. Yeah, yeah, that's okay. And because I'm not going to do a blind just on Brad Cetona. I'm going to have to go see, like, does BXA really present something dangerous here? But it's a really good card. Brad Cotona goes to the cards. He goes for cards.

If there's one thing, win or lose, this man goes to the cards. We know this. Over two and a half is minus three, 25. in some spots minus 3.50. That's right in the wheelhouse. I think for now, nothing is locked in yet. The presumption, I believe, is Shevchenko Fior over three and a half.

I believe that's where I'm going to go. That's safe. And it adds to you guys get to watch the climb on the watch party this weekend. I feel very, very comfortable with that bit, frankly. We have to think about the show as well. We have to think about the show because... It's all about content.

It would also be very funny if like Beck's not like knocked him out in like 20 seconds and then just for the rest of the night you're just like stooping in it I was miserable. I was the most miserable person and it would objectively be kind of funny like Shevchenko win or lose lost me to climb considering she's also the author of my current saddest moment in gambling history that would be my new one that won't happen and it'd be it'd be emotionally damaging well AK you've given me a lot to think about I believe you had a few Parlay options you wanted to throw out before we get out of you? Oh, yeah. These are quick. We don't need to get into detail these. Passivist Parlay. We've got a lovely passivist parley.

Not all this son, Fandul. I think some of those were not up yet when I looked at this. This is Maine and Co-Maine. Aldo Zhaubis. All to go. Oh, sorry, all to go round three. So this is all round three start. If you guys can find, you know, over one and a half, that's probably even better.

I'm just going with sort of what Fandul typically offers. So round three start. Maine, Co-Main, Aldo Zhabi. Grasosos. Really, the top four fights. Top four fights in the card. course and Lee Santos. That gets you to like a super exciting, but like a plus plus 137 plus 140 but it's pretty conservative. I'm saying like over one and a half. Like, you know, I again,

other than a truly insane outcome for Katona and Bexat, I would think that's pretty safe. So if you guys feel like just doing like not doing anything else but just watching, you enjoy watching a clock tick by, there you go. Can't go wrong. Love watching a clock tick by. Uh, 35 and up. We said a lot old folks in this card. How do you feel 35 and up parlay? Well, it's hard because a few of them are fighting each other. Correct, correct. Oh, yes. No, this is not, I did not, I did not take every 35 and up fighter on the card. This is a selective.

This was a selective. Balal and Val Aldo, Bakrio and Jasmine. This is plus 949. Now, Jed does say never parley underdogs. And unfortunately, Shevchenko is an underdog, strangely enough. So you really pull her out of it. This is true. Pull her out of it. You can go, how about it's fun?

Oh, but she's facing another, you know what? And she's facing another 35 enough person. She's facing the 35, so you're right. Shouldn't be in there anyway, because you don't know which 35 is going to be the case. So maybe. I don't hate that for a game at all.

Maybe Balal, Aldo, Mark Andre, and Jasmine. How about that guy? So a classic four-leger. Jasmine's 35? Yeah. 36. I was going to say.

Yeah, and nothing wrong with that. She just got a little bit late getting her push, you know. Nothing wrong with it. No. She just didn't realize she was 36. Yeah, yeah. And then, of course, we have to, Canadian card. We have to do all Canadian parlay.

Six Canadian fighters. If you were to do a four of them are underdogs. So this is definitely a stay away. But if you're one of those people, you don't care, but you do not follow that rule. Plus, again, depending where you bet. Plus 15, 700, plus 15,700. Plus 15,700. All Canadians to win. It's a lot. Just favorites. Just favorites. Mab, Malot and Jasmine. Plus 221. That's not bad. Barrio to me is a shaky leg, but I don't know, he must be favorite for a reason, so, you know, if you want to do it. I agree, shaky leg. Yeah, and then Jess Malat and Jasmine minus 104.

So I like that. I think that's doable. And Jed, the anti-Canadian parlay. Anti-Canadians, again, four Brazilian parlay, basically. The Brazilians, one very chatty American in Chuck Buffalo and what's our other one? Oh, a Frenchman. And then a Frenchman taking on Kyle Prepalek plus four to four three. So this is if you are, yes, if you are, think all the Canadians will somehow fall floor.

lot on their faces as has happened before i didn't even think about the dynamics of a canadian taking on a frenchman in montreal other it's a whole other man there's just a lot going on in that particular matchup that's it well i appreciate you for those uh i will be throwing together a parley of a passers parley of over one and a half to two and a half's the ballad jdm cotona bexat's probably going to find its way in there if i don't climb with it uh grasso silva you know just just a few of those in there But that's all for us. You know, I think we've more than covered the Bell Center in U.S.C. 315. We've made it more exciting.

I think we did our job. We did the best we can. The reason why you're the number one gambling podcast in the MMA space. And thank you for that wonderful honor. That's it, everybody. Thank you for tuning in this week. UFC 315 on Saturday. Keep a locked to MAPFighton.com for all of your coverage.

For our watch party on Saturday with me and Mike Heck, the post show, everything. else that is involved with that. And then, then, ladies and gentlemen, we are on the road back to the world's mightiest apex for Gilbert Burns versus Michael Morales, UFC, Vegas 106. Get excited. It is, it's a fight card. We are on our way to a fight card next week. Until then, thanks for tuning in. Love you. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to luxe beauty and fragrance sets. Our special selection has something for every style and price point.

Visit our Holt's holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com.