MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Benoit Saint Denis Be 'Money' Against Renato Moicano At UFC Paris?

Episode Date: September 25, 2024

UFC Paris goes down this weekend, headlined by a lightweight fight between Benoit Saint Denis and Renato Moicano. Who will win this main event matchup, and what about the rest of the action on this 14-fight card? No Bets Barred breaks it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Mike Heck to discuss all the bouts taking place in the City of Light. Topics debated include Moicano's prospects at upsetting Saint Denis, Brendan Allen's continued rise up the middleweight ranks, a possibly ill-fated UFC debut, and which underdog are live on the undercard. All that and more on this week’s episode. Tune in for episode 101 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Mike Heck: @MikeHeck_JR Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ontario, the weight is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget online casino is live. Bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and simple. And in just a few clicks, you can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots and top-tier table games. Make the most of your downtime with unbeatable promotions and jackpots that can turn any mundane moment into a golden, opportunity at Golden Nugget Online Casino. Take a spin on the slots, challenge yourself at the

tables, or join a live dealer game to feel the thrill of real-time action, all from the comfort of your own devices. Why settle for less when you can go for the gold at Golden Nuggett Online Casino. Gambling problem call connects Ontario 1866531-260. 19 and over, physically present in Ontario. Eligibility restrictions apply. See Golden Nuggett Casino.com for details. Please play responsibly. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. We're back for another edition of No Betts Bard. And once again, it's your boy Jedmachew in the hosting chair, as it will be forevermore. And I heard your feedback last week, guys.

And by last week, I mean two weeks ago, because this is actually, we had a little bit of a break off. We had the wonderful, the esteemed UFC Noce, UFC 306, UFC, UFC, Sphere, whatever you want to call it. And we had Alexander Keeley join us for that program. But today, we decided to get somebody who actually also places bets, as opposed to a co-host who the entire time we were doing the show was like, hey, man, don't bet on MMA. With that in mind, I would like to introduce my co-host for the week, the one, the only, the wonderful.

Mr. Mike, how you doing? I'm doing great. I do play the ponies every so often for entertainment purposes, and because you have asked me to come on this show, ponies will be played this week for UFC Paris, a card, by the way, that I'm not even actually going to be able to watch on Saturday. So the pressure will be off. I will have family activities happening. So hopefully when it's all said and done, I go to M.AFighting.com, terrific website. The results will be in my favor. Oh, I, so, you know, I don't mind peeling back the curtain on this program ever.

We're going to be a little shorthanded. We've had some, we've lost some people lately, Mike, you know this. I didn't realize how light we were going to be. It's basically me covering Paris this weekend. So we're going to try and keep it a great website and to make sure you have all the things you need. But I didn't realize you wouldn't even be able to watch it because, Mike, this is your favorite thing. It's your favorite thing in the whole world. Its early MMA is happening on Saturday because it's Paris.

I believe things kick off right around noon, maybe 11. So, you know, I'm sorry you'll miss it, but just keep tuned into the website. We got you covered. I sure will. And it's going to be an electric time on M.Afighting.com. I mean, we're going to have a good time because, look, let's, I mean, let's, before we dive into it, a very brief recap of the last time we were here. It went very poorly for me, Mike.

I lost a lot of money at UFC 306. My biggest losing night since the last time Valentina Shvchenko hurt me. It was poor. I am still up on the year, but I dropped almost seven units. I almost reverse swept myself. The only, the only when I hit last time out was Esteban Riebevich, which plus 205, you know, that helped soften the blow. But UC306 was a very bad night for me.

And I'm hopeful that that was because of AK and his negative juju. And he was bringing the negative energy. And you're not going to bring that energy because I don't have that many bets. Almost all of them are underdogs. And so there's a real potential that I can have had a successful year and cratered it in one month. I got. Let's just be frank. I got absolutely destroyed at UFC 306.

We had a tough time. I had a lot of good prelim bets. At least I thought they were, that just did not come to fruition. And Josh Van, I think, was the only bet I hit on the prelims. And then Valentina Shavchenko got that one done at dogg odds. But I just got destroyed the rest of the way. So let's put this one behind us. And on to Paris, Jed.

we press on and you know it's okay because at least I briefly thought about you know just at least putting out some bets for last week in the boxing and I would have been absolutely crushed what was old with Mr. Dubois just annihilating parley's and betting slips all over so things are in the air underdogs are pulling off upsets and Mike that is where we'll start because the main event for this weekend UFC Perry had not do I Hinato Money Moikano taking on Benoit San Dini. Your favorite at the moment is Benoit San Dini minus 265 for the Frenchman in his home country. And the comeback on Hinata Moikano is plus 225. And I'll lead us off here, Mike, and just say it straight up. I love this fight. I don't think this fight card is amazing to be frank. I think there are a couple of key highlights, and obviously we'll talk about all of it.

but this fight is why it's fine. It does not matter to me if the rest of this card is garbage. This fight is very fun. And frankly, I am taking Hinato and Morkano. I do not know if I'm taking him straight up. Like when we do our topology picks for the website, I still probably favor BSD to get this done. But you're talking about a man who is all action, but primarily a grappler.

Like BSD, he can throw hands, but he wants to get in on the head. hips take you down and kind of hauss you around. And Moycano, very physically capable, an extremely talented grappler in his own right. I think probably a better technical striker. And so I think this is just going to be a dog fight. And while, again, I favor binwasandini, I think there's a lot of value plus 225 on money Moikano. And so I am backing Moycano.

Also, this hurts. This makes me feel better because our friend Alexander K. Lee has BSD. in his fantasy lineup. And so if Moikano pulls a subset, a huge win for us as well. So that's where I'm at, Mike. Give me your thoughts on the main event. I'm kind of with you where I'm leaning, Santanyi.

I understand the value on Moikano. I just think he's going to get host in this whole fight. Like he's not the biggest lightweight. And Benoit Santini would not be the smallest welterweight. So I think he's a massive individual. and I do think the Porre fight taught him a lot. I do think he was a little dinged up heading into it with the staff and all that. I don't think that would have changed the outcome of the fight because I still had a bet on Dustin Porier and I was damn proud of it.

And I would do it again. So I decided I'm just going to stay away from a side on this one. I know it's kind of a boring pick. The one thing I looked at that I thought had some decent value was Benoit Santini inside the distance and minus 165 because I do think if he wins, he's going to to stop Moikano within three rounds. And then the more I sort of dove into this, the more I thought to myself, this fight's ending in the first three rounds anyways. It's just a matter of when in that third round it would end if it gets that far.

So I decided to take the under two and a half at minus 175. So either way, I think we're going to get a finish here, whether it's BSD or we get a sneaky Moikano submission, if BSD gets a little bit tired, the adrenaline starts pumping a little too much. So I went under two and a half minus 175. Not a ton of value, but to me, it just kind of plays both sides a little bit. And I think compared to just taking BSD with those odds or BSD inside the distance, I'm getting pretty similar money on both guys getting a finish in the first half of the fight. So I'll go ahead and just do that.

Yeah, I don't hate it. I mean, anytime you just bet an under on BSD, it's probably a better bet than not. Like the man just comes out. he is get or get got and it's why we love him and it's why we love this fight the winner this fight can go on to fame and riches and whatever and honato morcano win or lose can go on to fight patty pimble and which will be like he's he's not he has nothing to lose here because even with the loss he just gets to fight patty pimblit so uh main event is going to be spectacularly fun if i say it all the time if you have other things to do if you're like mike and you have family things to

attend to, come to him a fighting. Even if you do, maybe you just pop out the phone, open up the ESPN app and watch this one. Probably won't take long, and it's going to be damn worth your time. Which brings us to the co-main event. I mean, this is a co-main event. This is not a penultimate fight. It's a co-main event. It's the only other fight that I think is unambiguously good on this fight card.

And I'm talking, of course, about a middleweight contest between Nassardine Imov and Brendan Allen and Mike I don't want to lead off with you because I have a feeling I know where you're going you've you've been very supportive of one of these gentlemen over the years I'm going with the uh the dog here I'm going with Brendan Allen uh big dog I'm the bad host imovov is the favorite at minus 240 Brendan Allen plus 205 is the underdog yeah I and I wanted to pull the trigger on this a little bit sooner but I didn't I was kind of hoping more money would come in on of off, but it kind of roll reversed a little bit. So I pulled the trigger about two hours ago as we record, and I'm glad I did because

that number dropped even more so. Now it's down to plus 170. So I got Brennan Allen and a plus 185. I just think this fight is way closer than that. I think Brennan Allen has fought really good dudes. I feel like he's one of the most underappreciated guys on the roster right now. People, for some reason, he has this moniker that he's boring. dude just finishes fights within three rounds.

And if he doesn't, he has a fight of the year contender with Chris Curtis. Now, you can look at that fight and find holes in Brennan Allen's game, and rightfully so. However, it's a fight that came together on short notice, much like their first meeting, where Chris Curtis just kind of did the Chris Curtis thing. So I think I'movov is very good. I think Jared Kandaneer is a fine fighter. but I just, I don't know. There's just,

I'ma Vos been a little too inconsistent for me. I think Brennan top to bottom throughout his career has just fought better competition. And I know I'movov is ranked four spots higher. I just, this is a value play more than anything. I think Brandon Allen can absolutely win this fight. So I'm going to take a plus 185 shot to see if I'm right. I had a very strong feeling you'd be doing this.

And I got to tell you, I agree with most of your breakdown, except for one thing you said at the end, I don't even think this is value play. I just straight up think Brendan Allen is going to win this fight. Nassadine and Imovov, he is ranked above him. He got a lot of juice coming off the Canoneer win. You know, Canonier still obviously is capable of competing. I think it's fair to believe that the almost 40-year-old guy

who's been fighting for a long time probably not his best anymore and Imov did not get the most difficult cannoneer to face. whereas Brendan Allen has done nothing honestly but impressed me. Yes, the Chris Curtis fight was hard, but the fact that he's still found a way to get the win. I actually didn't score it for him, but it doesn't matter what I score. It matters what the people ringside score.

Got the win in a tough matchup, got takedowns, because heading into the fight, I bet on Chris Curtis saying Chris Curtis is very good at defending takedowns, and Brendan Allen is not going to do that. He actually still managed to get a lot of takedowns on Chris Curtis, and the same things here. Nassardine Imov, you know, historically been a solid defensive wrestler, but I think Britten Allen has a clear

skill gap on the floor, should be able to get takedowns. He's developing as a striker, and I'm just never impressed me. I will be picking Brandon Allen straight up to win this fight, and so you're telling me that, and he's a plus, I got him at plus 205, that is just a lot of value. This is, this is one of the bets I feel the best about, whereas in the main event, I won't at all be surprised if Moikano doesn't cash. That's a value play to me. This one, I'll be a little surprised if Brennan Allen doesn't cash. And then I'll just have to be like, oh, that's why he was an underdog.

You absolute jackass. So I love the Brennan Allen pick is one of my favorites this week. And I think he is, it's going to be weird because if he gets this win, like pretty undeniably Brendan Allen should be fighting for a title. And I don't know if he's even like the fourth. dude you call at middleweight right now. Yeah, he's in a tough spot, man. It's just very, very tough because I would say that, like, even with the win,

he might move ahead of Kyle Borrello in the middleweight rankings. Kind of just feels like Baralio even has more momentum than Brunow. Obviously, Strickland's there. Robert Whitaker is theoretically fighting Hamzot. The winner of that is certainly ahead of him. And, Mike, I mean, we haven't confirmed these reports yet, but my guess, guy, the Dutch knight, Hiney de Hitter,

a.k.a. Rineer de Ritter, former one champion has apparently been signed to the UFC, so middleweight, sneaky fun. Brandon Allen, I'm sorry that if you win, you're still at least one fight, maybe two away. We actually have confirmed those reports. Oh, have we?

It is legit. Yes, we have. Boom. I love it. So maybe that's what happens. The winner of this is fighting Renéyade de Ritter in the Dutch Knight sweepstakes. That is what this fight is up for grabs, and I'm here for it. We're going to take a quick break for commercials, Mike, because you've got to pay the bills. You've got to keep the lights on.

And then we'll be right back to break down the rest of the main card and then the prelims. With Instacart, you get groceries that over-deliver so you can over-share your preferences. Want russet potatoes with no brown spots? You got it. Want turnips that look light but feel heavy? Easy. Want honey crisp apples that are firm green and definitely not Macintosh like last year. when you lost the fall bake-off to perfect

Penelope Johnson? Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it. So download the app today and get zero delivery fees on your first three orders. Instacard, groceries that over-deliver. Service fees exclusions and terms apply. You know what's better than the one big thing? Two big things.

Exactly. The new iPhone 17 Pro on TELUS is five-year rate plan price lock. Yep, it's the most powerful iPhone ever, plus more peace of mind with your bill over five years. This is big. Big. Get the new iPhone 17 Pro at tellus.com slash iPhone 17 Pro on select plans.

Conditions and exclusions apply. And we're back. And we talked about the two important fights, Mike. So let's talk about the other fights. And some of these, you know, they vary between fun and interesting to, hey, this is some Bellator matchmaking. Let's get those French fighters out there. This is not one of those, but this is going to be a sad night, in my opinion, for the French,

as William Gomi takes on Joe Anderson Brito in a featherweight contest. Go me, sizable underdog plus 240, Eriotterson Brito, minus 280. And as you can probably tell, I'm taking Brito. I have a bet on Brito because he's my guy. He's on my fantasy team. I got to support my guys. I took him thinking he could come out here and get me in early finish

and maybe have a chance for a quick turnaround because this, time Jo Anderson Brito fights, something violent and awesome is happening. It's a submission. It's a knockout, whichever ways it goes. This man has finished, I think, like four in a row inside of two rounds. And so I have a bet on Yo-Anderson Brito inside the distance at plus 105. Ooh. I like that.

That's a good call. The Jonathan Pierce one was very fun. That was impressive. That one was like, all right, this guy's real good. The Jack Shore one, I felt, I don't know, I felt unsatisfied. It's not circumstances, certainly. I felt unsatisfied. But also that was, I mostly just thought that's disgusting is what I thought.

Yeah, it was very gross. And I would have loved to have seen that fight continue on, but I still would have thought Jordanson Bredo was going to win. There was a part of me that almost went and pulled the trigger on Go Me. And I went back and watched it, Watch some footage. Go me, he just won 11 fights in a row. This guy just, he's not such.

He's a hard time losing. He has a hard time losing. And then once you start watching Joe Anderson Brito fights, I thought of you, Jed. Dude, he's so good. I thought of you. I thought of you. And I thought back to UFC 297,

where you said, look, sometimes you just got to do the DDP thing and just swing as hard as you can. Just throw bombs. Hit a mother effort. Just hit an M.FER so hard. And William, Go Me is a sneaky technical striker. He's kind of a grinder out there, very technical out there.

Still 27, young man, only getting better. But Joy Anderson Brito does the DDP thing where he just punches really, really hard. And if this fight gets to the mat and he gets in an opportunistic spot, as slick as Go Me can be, Jordanson Brito is just a little more dangerous down there. So I went from looking at GoMe as a dog to opening up a point. parlay with Joe Anderson Brito at minus 285. Because I think GoMeek could probably hang a little longer. Like I could see this one going to the cards. But I do think because of those moments, because he does hit people so hard, because he is so

brutish out there, I think he's still going to win rounds. Like he'll just steal him, even if the numbers don't favor him. So, yeah, Brito is the first piece of. And probably the scariest piece of this parlay I've cooked up. I love the roller coaster that that was. I recently started rewatching Band of Brothers just because I just threw it on. It's on Netflix. Great.

If you haven't ever watched it, it's a wonderful program. And I was rewatching it. I was struck by something that I then thought of with DDP today. You know, you guys might have seen it out there It's sort of making the rounds There's a clip of DDP Talking in an interview with somebody Who's like, yeah, there are all these clips of people

Breaking down why I'm so technically brilliant And how smart it is that I do this stuff And none of that's true I'm not trying to set up this by doing I'm just hitting the guy It's just the best Because that clip and frankly like DDP and Joe Anderson Brito

and guys of his ilk, they just made me think of you know, band of brothers and all this sort of military history stuff where we have a long history, Mike, of figuring out that, yes, you can be really smart and tactical about like getting your troops

in the right place and, you know, doing all these smart things. But half the time, you just got to go hit a mother eff. You know, just be aggressive. Just charge across the field of battle. and swing on some dude, and it'll cause chaos and they'll run away. And that's what Gerrits and Brito does.

Look, he did it to Diego Lopez. Diego Lopez, the most hot shit guy in M.M.A. at this point in time. Jonathan Brito, he stopped the Diego Lopez train before it even got started on Contender Series. I'm still on my boy, Brito. It's going to be a fun one. I don't know if this next one will be a fun one, Mike. I honestly have no idea what to expect out of this fight. probably one of the fights I am the most confused about heading in,

and I'm talking about the Walterway battle between Brian Battle and Kevin Jusset battle your favorite minus 170. Juset, the comeback is plus 150. And I'm pretty torn, Mike. Like I said, I battle looked so good against Andge Lusa before the weirdness of that finish and look like. Maybe he's making a leap with his kind of current run, but he's never been a great defensive wrestler.

Kevin Jusset scores a lot of takedowns, has that judo background. I would say is the better grappler on a pretty good little run for himself. So I have ultimately decided to stay away from this one because I can't get a good feel for the fight. But what about you? What do you have? I took Brian Battle, minus 170. I feel pretty good about this one. He's just fought better guys.

He's fought at a higher level for a lot longer than Kevin Juset has. And, you know, Jusset's a fine fighter. and I think he's going to get wins in this division, but I think Brian Battle is more athletic. And yeah, his grappling is called into question a little bit, but A.J. Fletcher is a demon wrestler. That guy just shoots and shoots, and he's a problem. And he subbed him in round two.

Like, that was a eye-opening performance for me where I was just like, damn, all right, Brian Battles is a sneaky, sneaky young man. Plus he's huge for this weight class. It's very big fellow. So is Jussette. Jussette's a big boy as well. Jessette's a big boy, but I think battles just got a little more, more tools in the toolbox, as the kids say. So just taking him straight, minus 170.

So go to Brian Battle to get it done. I think he's trending upwards. And Kevin Juset, I think, like I said, is going to get some wins in this division. But I think it's 31. Brian Battles a little bit, a little bit more on the youthful side. And I think athleticism will be the answer here. And it's always the answer. Athleticism and being a hoss.

That's the answer to all the life's problems. Speaking of athleticism, our next fight, the villain, the absolute skull-dougarous villain that he is, Shaheen Al-Shadi, has Morgan Shahri-A on his MMA fantasy team, and Shah-ye takes on Gabriel Miranda. Shah-ye at minus 700, Miranda plus 500. One of the biggest favorites, not the biggest, but one of the biggest favorites on the card and Mike uh do you think the villain sheen al shoddy will have all the things

he wanted and more from this pick god i hope he doesn't and even if that is that the basically uh even if it hurts my bank account seeing shehine put up a zero would be incredibly funny his team is just losing legs by the second and it's great i love every second of it My team has failed spectacularly, but I swung big. Shaheen's team was all taking massive favorites in fights immediately near when we drafted to just try and game the system. He moneyballed it in the least interesting way possible, and his favorites have been turning in wins,

but not like getting the finish bonuses. So I am absolutely rooting against him in this regard. I hope Shari, even if he wins, does not, goes to a decision. Yeah, I do think he's going to win this fight. Gabriel Miranda's fun and all that. But even in the loss of Chepa Mariscoll, and I thought Chepa won that fight, and I understand why people thought that Morgan won.

Dude's a dog, man. Like, he's real good. He's better than I thought he was. Typically, I'll go with the Cage Warriors fade because it's paid off significantly over the years. But Morgan's real good, man. Like, he's not going to be a top 15 guy. He's not a guy that's going to fight for a belt.

But he's going to beat a lot of guys on the back end of like the top 50 and Gabriel Miranda is probably a little bit lower than that. So I think he wins. This is a piece number two of the parley. Morgan Charier minus 750 is what this parley is getting oh so juicy at. So yeah, give him Charier to get the win. I don't think it's going to be like the prettiest win of all time, but a win will be a win. I do think he's going to win.

I do have a bet, but not on a. side. I've actually decided to fade Charier winning early. One, I just think Miranda, you know, can spam takedowns and though Sharjeet is very good at defending them, he can do that a bunch and survive. And the over one and a half is only minus 150. Charier is not like a huge early finisher historically. And so that, plus you add on, you know, Shaheen betting on, you know, Yasmin Yargui, not turning out, not working out well from Raul Rose. Junior going to a decision, Andre Petroski going to decision. I think Miranda can hold out and make this a little more fun for us.

So I've taken the over one and a half at that price. And that takes us to our final main card fight, Mike. Farraciam taking on Matt Frivola in a lightweight contest. For us, minus 130, the comeback on Matt Frivolta plus 110. And I guess it's my turn to go first. So just very simply, I, MMA math says Vrvola wins, but Logic says Ziam, for us wins. He's just a bigger, younger dude, Fervola, up and down, the last little bit of his career. You know, incredibly fun fighter, he's going to come out there and he's going to scrap.

Maybe he'll mix and take downs because he does do that some, but mostly these two dudes are going to come in and bang it out. And while Fervola has a history of success there, he also has a history of failure. I would favor for us to win, but I don't really want to be betting on a side here. Instead, what I want to bet on is the belief that Matt Fravola knows his job, and his job is to be fun as hell, and he's going to come out, and he's going to chuck him, and one man is going to rise, and one man is going to fall, and it's going to happen within seven minutes. And so the under one and a half I actually looked at as a like plus 200 something.

And then I decided that cooler heads will prevail. I'm taking the under two and a half at this because it's still plus money, plus 105 for under two and a half. And in part, Ziam's been to a lot of decisions, but I don't think Fervola's going to let that happen. I think he's coming to get or get got. So that's where I'm at, Mike. What about you? He will, he's going to get. Matt Frivolta is going to get on Saturday.

It's been a while since the man has competed, and you have a lot of time to reflect on what works and what doesn't after you get head kicked to the moon by Benoit Santini at Madison Square Garden. And that's what happened the last time Matt Ravola fought. But Matt's gotten some good wins, man. He's been in there and stopped Drew Dober, and he's beat some pretty good guys. And for as I am, to some degree, this is Joe Anderson Brito-ish versus William Go-Meethe. where Siam is can finish dudes and he's strong and he's powerful. But for Volo is just a just a friggin bull man. He's going to go in there.

He's all pissed off. He wants the paddy fight and he knows if he loses, he ain't going to get it. So this is his last chance to get it. I think there's a lot of momentum with guys who have trained with Ray Longo and that crew with the success that they've been having with Marab not being the champion. So yeah, give me the dog. Plus 110, Matt Frivola to get it done. Paris crowd's going to be a little sad.

Sorry. Look, they're going to be sad a couple of times. So it'll be okay. Also, I don't feel like Frasiam is really like the guy they're there for. So it'll be okay for them. And that's the end of our main car, which brings us to the prelims. But because, you know, still got to pay those bills, we'll have a short break. And then we'll jump into everything else that remains on this card.

There are like eight more fights. Talk about a lot of fights happening. It's a lot of a fight card. We'll be back in just a moment. And we're back. Mike, I was correct. There are, in fact, eight more fights to talk about. Fortunately, I don't have a lot on a lot of them.

I actually only have two bets remaining. I'm sorry, one bet remaining on the rest of this card. Got a couple of thoughts written down and kind of leans in some ways. But let's dive right on into it. And your prelim main event, Ion Kutalaba, taking on even Ursulin in a light heavyweight contest. Kutalaba, a very slight favorite, minus 120, Ursulin plus 105. Erslan making his UFC debut coming in from KSW.

Kutalaba has lost four of his past five fights. And frankly, those two pieces of information should tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Certainly have for me. I am staying away. I like Kutalaba as a fun, Gittergayaka. For me, he would always have a spot on the roster. Erselin didn't honestly wow me in KSW. Some fun wins, but also kind of the best dudes he fought in the organization.

He found ways to lose to. I, gun to my head, I would honestly pick Erslin to win this fight, but I, too many unknowns with where they're both at in their careers, and I'm just fully staying away from this one. Mike, do you have any thoughts? So this might be a hot take, and it's totally fine if you feel that way. I think I won Kuchelaba should be like a minus 200 favorite in this fight. He just should be.

He's just fought way better guys. And I think D1 Kutalaba absolutely destroys this man. I think he just takes him down and just merks them. And I think there's a very real possibility that happens because he's in that position where you just got to get a W, man. It doesn't matter if it's the prettiest thing. It doesn't matter if it's a bonus winner. It doesn't matter.

You just got to go in there and win. And I think he's going to go in there and do that. I think he's just way better. Like, I'm with you. I have not been overly impressed with the work that was done in KSW. And I just sometimes when it comes down to it, when you make your UFC debut, and it's not like he's making his debut at home in front of a home crowd or anything like that.

Like he's just kind of on the card to have a fun fight. And sometimes Ewan Kuchalaba It's not all that fun He'll just take you down and brute you around And I think that's kind of what's going to happen here So very confident in this pick And I actually think And I could be dead wrong

But I feel like getting him at minus 122 Is I'm getting a shit load of value here So I'm pretty confident in this one If he comes out and to be Diyan Kutalaba He's probably going to win the fight frankly And look I don't hate the pick You could convince me either side If you feel strongly, go for it.

I just, I don't like Benadadu. Just got four losses and five fights. It's hard for me. And I've been burnt by Ion Kutlaba before. The Moldovian Joel Edgerton has hurt me. And I won't be putting money on him, at least not at this juncture. Our next fight, the villain. Shaheen al-Shadi also has this man,

Umar Sai, taking on Daoom-Jum, Jung in a light heavyweight contest. Jung has lost three in a row. He is a considerable underdog as a result plus 375. Umar C is minus 500. To me, it's pretty clear that C's going to win this fight, but I didn't have anyone that I wanted to parlay him with. Is legitimately how this went?

Sure, he'd be a parley fodder, and I could maybe parley him Ludovit Klein, who we're going to talk about in just a few moments. But there's such big favorites that there's nothing to bring that number down to anything reasonable. And so I just, like, if I was really trying, maybe I'd find a way to make a parley work here, but I just don't care enough to do it. So it ends up being a pass, a de facto pass, because there's no one to pair him with at such a big price.

Well, I didn't pair him with anybody. he is part of the four horsemen, as I call this part. And I was just knocking all out here. Joe Anderson Breeder is obviously going to be the sweatiest one. He's the one that kind of brings it down. Sherriere's there, minus 750, UMRSA, minus 520. Ludwig Klein is at minus 1100. So parlaying all four of them up, and that pays out even money, minus 100.

So there you go. There you go. Just straight cash, homie. found jug knows his job jed he knows his job his job is to go out there and lose in just incredible fashion and that's probably what's going to happen here i feel the same way about rusevelt roberts who you already teased it you have ludovic klein to parley and so we will just cruise right into that klein uh depending on where you're getting him minus 1,000 minus 900 minus 12 something massive Roberts plus 600, the biggest underdog on the card.

And like I said, I think Klein is going to win this fight. Klein, to me, is one of those guys who is just the embodiment of why lightweight is so good. He's not ranked. He's probably not good. Like, maybe he'll get ranked at some point. He's just, he's a guy who's going to be on the periphery of the top 15, firmly entrenched in the top 25 for a while. But you may never get the opportunities he needs to elevate,

but it's just hard as hell to fight every time you get him. And Roberts is not that dude. And justifiably a big favorite. If I felt confident in some other pairings, and maybe by fight night, maybe I'll say, you know what, screw it, let's cook up a little parlay to have some fun while I'm watching these fights. But not this time.

Not for me. So that brings us on, Mr. Mike Heck, to a bantamweight contest. between Taylor Lapilus and Vince Morales. Lapolis minus 360 betting favorite Vince Morales plus 2.95. Morales making his return to the UFC after hitting the regional circuit for a while in. Most notably hitting a Peruvian necktie. His last fight out, very, very fun.

Lapelus is a dude that, for me, Mike, has never jumped off the page, never wowed me, but she's a rock-solid fighter, like a guy who's going to hang around and be in there. I were to be cooking up a parlay, it probably would look like a scy-clined Lapilus parlay, something like that. But I'm just, I'm not interested. I don't think Vince Morales is great. But he's been fun since his exit from the UFC, maybe he learned a couple of things. And I feel comfortable enough with the action already have down to just stay away from this one.

Yeah, Lappolus is going to win, man. Lappellus impressed me a lot. I thought one of my best, all week heading into. Lapis's last fight. I'm sitting there looking at Cody Stamen as like a plus 280 or whatever he was heading into that fight and I'm like, man, you're just giving me a bunch of free money here. He's plus 245. That's what I had him at. You're just giving it to me. You're giving me plus 245 on a guy who's been in there with everybody in this division essentially and he's had, he's been in there with Marab. He's been in there with all these guys and he's not getting the doors blown

off of him. Yeah, Aljo tapped him, but he's given a lot of really good Bannamweights, tough fights. But man, Taylor Lappalus just put it on him, man. It was a great performance. He showed me a lot. But Vince Morales is a big unknown to me. I don't

think he's that great. I think good for him for Klawn his way back, but I mean, look, Truto Ishihara, cool. Like, I like Joe Panofi a lot, but Joe's Joe's not like a UFC level fighter. He's perfect for game bread bear knuckle.

That's his jam right there. Yuki Batoia, sure. Hunter Azure. Yeah, there was a time I thought Hunter Azure was really, really good at this fist fighting thing, but it just hasn't really worked off for him. But Vince could be that guy. Like you come in on short notice,

the unknowns on the road. You can play spoiler. So I like you. Long story short. I'm staying the frig away from this. fight. I'm staying far away from it. This is not going to be parley fodder. Can't do it. Too many unknowns here. Yeah, I just looked at putting the three of them together in a parlay and it's only paying you

out like minus 140. Not really something I'm interested in. Maybe, again, maybe I'll play around with something else, but for now, we're just passing. As we continue to move on down the prelims, a women's ban on-and-weight contest between Ireland-Perey. and Darya Zelensyakova, I think I actually got it that time. I spent some time practicing to make sure I would. Perez, your betting favorite, minus 230, Zelaznikova, plus 195, the comeback on her. And I've considered, you know, doing the, hey, women's ban on weight. Statistically, they go to a decision more likely than not.

You could take the bet and probably just, you know, walk away some cash. and then I remember that I don't want to bet on Eileen Perez fights because when Eileen Perez was making her UFC debut against Stephanie Eager, I was like, Stephanie Eager is bad, and I'd seen some tape on Perez, was like, yes. And then she lost, and it gave me, in the parlance of the kids, Mike, she gave me the ick. Losing to Stephanie Eager, gave me the ick for Elyne Perez and for betting on or around Eileen Perez. Despite the fact that since then, she's gone on, racked up,

Three wins in the promotion looked perfectly competent. And Zelensiokova, you know, is what she is. She is a product of women's band and weight. I think Perez probably does win this fight. She's a far better grappler can just score takedowns and kind of maybe even find a finish. Lesneikova is not spectacular, we're not put on her back. But I am just staying away from this fight. Yeah, I'm with you.

I took a look at, I took a look at the dollar. but I just can't do it, man. Like, it's just so unpredictable. I might cook up a little passive women's fight parley for this card because it's a very real chance that like both these fights go over one and a half.

So I'm curious to see what those odds are because I know anywhere I've looked, none of them have really dropped yet. So I will look into this. I will see. And if the numbers are favorable, then I will go ahead and pull the trigger on that. But, yeah, if Eileen Perez wins, he's going to win barely.

For this fight, I've got minus 500 for over one and a half. And then if we look at the Cavalcanti-Cornolly fight, or minus 600 for over one and a half. So it's still, you'll still have a big number at the end of the day there. But we always respect the Seaburk special, the over one and a half, Connor Burke shout out. Yeah, I don't know. Rest in power, Connor.

wherever you are out there. Not on these airways. I'm not going to overthink this. I'm just going to stay away. I think that that is probably smart. The shout out to Zelazniakova, who I honestly believe I had ranked at one point in time, because women's band-in-weight was such a disaster that I was pulling. It's better than it was, but I was legitimately pulling fighters out of Aries being like,

I don't know, Aries has a women's-ban-weight division. Her and Melissa Dixon are my 14 and 15 or whatever. which brings us on to a flyweight contest, Mike, between Daniel Barez and Victor Altamorano. And I have to be very, very honest about things. I would never lie to our listeners here. I had absolutely no idea this fight was happening until about five minutes before we decided to, you know, before we hit record. I don't know how I just missed it. on the thing, but I stone missed it.

And so I have no breakdown of this fight. I haven't watched an ounce of tape, and my memory is not spectacular as far as Altamarano goes. And then, you know, Barras is his fault one time against Jeff Alfio. So I have no breakdown and no nothing about this fight. Barrez is the underdog, very slightly plus 105, Altamirano minus 120.

Do you have anything here, Mike? No. two fly weights in their 30s and can't. I just got no faith, man. Like if there was like a someone was sitting at like plus 170 I'd probably take a shot at them

but even money, I'm not going to sit there and take a risk when it's not really, the juice isn't worth the squeeze here. So maybe maybe I'll find some sort of like round prop or something but even that I don't think it's going to be that great. So yeah, I'm just going to enjoy this one as a fan

or at least read anime fighting as a fan. You'll never even watch this fight, Mike. No, it will happen. This fight will be as if it didn't happen for you, because no one will talk about it. You won't see it. There won't be a highlight.

It is what it is. Once upon a time, we could have blind bet the under, but those days are long past. Shout out. Shout out to flyweight unders. Our second fight of the evening, which means our second and last fight we're going to talk about Nora Cornoli taking on Jacqueline Cavalcanti in a women's bantamweight contest. Volcanti is actually making a fairly quick turnaround. Fault in August to be Josian Nunez.

And Cornoli was originally supposed to fight. Oh, Germain Durand to me. That's right. Which was a substantially, frankly, more significant contest than she's got here now. Wow. I just pull out the UFC rankings and Eileen Perez is ranked. This division is something special. I bet against Capulcante against Josian Nunez, and it did not work out for me.

She just doesn't impress me with her sort of cardio kickboxing, high volume, very limited danger aspect to it. It's proven effective, though, but I don't think it'll be effective against Cornoli. Cornoli is a bigger, more physical fighter than Nunez is, and she's kind of a little powerhouse. shades of Jessica Androge to this woman, and I think she is going to hit Cavalcante and hit her real hard. She may get a finish because historically she is a finisher, which is always a bonus, but mostly I'm just picking her to win. And she's currently a plus 175 underdog to Cabo Conte minus 205. So I'm picking her to win and I'm getting dog odds. I'm taking her straight up.

It is my final bet on the card, Mike. What's that out here? What's that? Are there dogs? Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh. That's the second time. Brendan Allen, baby, let's go. Yeah, I mean, there's no world where Jacqueline Cavalcantra should be a minus 205 in this fight.

And every time I say that, we watch the fight and we're like, oh, shit, this is why. But, uh, Nor is good, man. She's got decent wins. Will she make weight? Doesn't matter. Does not matter in the grand scheme of things. All she has to do, even if she misses weight by three and a half pounds, she's got to go out and get that W. for us. She might get penalized in her purse.

Ours will be plenty. It'll grow. It'll get bigger. Our bank accounts. And we're going to get it at plus 175. So let's go. Plus. And I didn't want to bring this up in the initial talking, but this is a very important aspect to this fight that I think many listeners to this program will be hearing this information for the very first time.

This is actually a rematch, Mike. Nora Cornoli's first fight, her pro debut was a loss to Jacqueline Cavalcante. And so she is sitting here thinking about this. It was Cavalcante's second fight, not her first. So she already had some experience. They fought at FFA Challenge 2 in Marapas, France. So they fought in France for this battle.

They're going back to the scene of the crime, the country of the crime. And Cornoli has had three long years. years to think about this defeat and to channel all that energy. The only loss of her professional careers is Cavalcante, and she can write that wrong, and she's gotten better, and she's going to come out here and set the tone early for us. I'm so excited about this rematch that we never knew we needed to see. And that brings us to the first fight of the evening. The final fight we'll talk about a men's lightweight contest.

Balaji Oki taking on Chris Duncan. I don't know. I got a couple of thoughts, but Mike, let's lead with you, and I'll close us out. So anybody who watches the prices right knows that when you get the first showcase, you always pass.

And I'm going to do the exact same. I mean, no car, no whirlpool, no nothing. A dinette set. A dinette set, maybe a T set.

Like, nobody wants any of that shit. So much of, like this fight, I don't want a side at all here. I just, it's lightweight, it's the best division in the sport. So we'll let these guys just duke it out and I will see how the results go on MAAfighting.com. But I'm not putting my money on this fight.

I can tell you that right now. I think that's smart. I actually like Oki a fair bit. He was one of the guys who just missed the top tier of contenders from the, not the current season, but the previous season of Contender Series when I sort of did a prospect breakdown there. I think he has a lot of potential to stick around the UFC be a very fun action fighter.

And Chris Duncan is fine, perfectly serviceable dude. He's a solid lightweight, which means he's a good fighter. I think Duncan needs takedowns to win. I don't think he will get them. And so I do think Oki's going to win. But like you, it's just first Friday of the evening. I didn't need to have money on this one when I've already got, you know, six other bets down. And I'm coming off a very tough week.

So that will be the final breakdown. And am I correct in saying you still don't have anyone competing? You have no fantasy fighters this weekend either. No, I don't think I have a fighter till 308 at this point, right? I am trying to see if I've missed something. I mean, Alessandro Costa should have been, but yeah, you are...

Seraghan should have been. Cyril gone. Your team may just not show up for the game. I don't know what the hell's going on. Oh, no, I have Alex Pereira next week. Oh, you do have Pereira. There we go. I have Grant Dawson in October.

I have Jose Aldo next week. I get Raquel Pennington next week. So we're getting there. Next week's a big one. Next week's a big one. Well, next week we won't. have you back on the show because ladies and gentlemen I've been teasing it and I do believe

like 90% that the new No Betts Barred will be unveiled next week. We will still have an audio version for those who want to listen on the podcast network, etc. But we're moving to the YouTube boys. I've been working on some stuff, very excited

for you all to see it. Wanted to debut with a pay-per-view because obviously a big fight card. If not then maybe we'll pull you back in. If something goes wrong and we can't make it half but otherwise Mike I want to thank you for your contributions today for stepping up

so many people hit me and were like hey you can't have AK on if he's just going to tell us not to bet that's killing the energy and I was like Mike won't kill the energy Mike is a vibes guy through and through and that's it

that is everything we wrote for this card and next week ladies and gentlemen UFC 307 we're heading to Salt Lake City Utah. I will be heading to South Carolina for the new iteration of the watch party. Very excited for that. Alex Pereira will be sending Cleo Roundtree to Dreamland. A lot of journeys taking place next weekend. A lot of new things. It's going to be very exciting. And then, of course, there will be Rockal Pennington versus Giuliana Pena. So it's always important to have balance in your life. And that fight will do all the

balancing out all the other excitement. But until then, thank you all so much for listening. Love y'all. It was the night before the gathering and all through the house. The host rapid cozy cashmere throw from Home Sense for their spouse. Kids toys for $6.99 under the tree. And crystal glasses for just $14.99 for their brother Lee. A baking dish made in Portugal for Tom and Sue.

And a nice $599 candle perfectly priced just for you. Happy Home! Holidays to all and to all a good price. Home Sense. Endless presents perfectly priced.