MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Dustin Poirier Finish His Story At UFC 302?

Episode Date: May 29, 2024

UFC 302 takes place this Saturday in New Jersey with Dustin Poirier once again challenging for the lightweight title, this time against the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Islam Makhachev, and the No Bets Barred boys are back to break it down. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a brief discussion about the optimal UFC schedule before diving into the UFC 302 talk. . Will Poirier finally claim undisputed UFC gold and finish his story or will Makhachev deny him yet again? Can Paulo Costa pull off the upset on Sean Strickland to get himself back into title contention? Just how fun will Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk be? All this and more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 89 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

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but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. Available now, only from Audible. Going to the Vox Media Podcast Network. Going on, y'all, we are back another edition of No Bet's Bard this time. UFC 302. We're back in Brick City.

My Neck of the Woods, Newark, New Jersey, the sixth borough. As they say, official publication, New York Times calling it the sixth borough, very proud of that. And I mean, they say it's the greatest city on earth. It's Manhattan 2.0. And what better place to finish a great story than in Newark, New Jersey. Dustin Borea versus Islam, Makashchev, Jed. How are you feeling my man?

Good. I'm excited. Feels like we haven't done this in a while. I mean, I know we obviously had a little bit of time off. and then even the last kind of card wasn't that spectacular. I don't think nobody was focused on it with all the Furiousic stuff happening. So I was just, I'm not even going to lie. I'd rack my brain a little bit there.

I was thinking what was the last card, but it was the Lorone Murphy one. Yeah, yeah, exactly. No one cares. It happened. You know, it's fine, glad it occurred. But we had such a spectacular weekend than that weekend. And then just kind of feels like we've been sort of cruising. taking our time, not a lot happening.

I like it. It's the same way it felt after we did UFC 300, where we got a little bit of downtime, had a little bit of time to recuperate. And then I was like, all right, 301, not the best card on paper, but I'm kind of interested because I've had some breathing room. 302, not the best card, you know, not the best paper we've ever seen. But I'm pretty excited. Like, it is a fun car.

I feel like I've had some room to breathe. And so this is, I implore you, UFC. I know you're listening. Just, I'm not saying we need to drop back to 20 fight events a year. But it is nice to have room to breathe and let us savor the good spots as opposed to just a relentless wall of content every week. I'm 100% with you. I mean, maybe, yeah, we don't need to go to 20, maybe like 33. Maybe just like 10 of those off.

The answer is 36, Connor. You do one in the eight. Three a month. You do one in the apex. You do one on the road. You do one pay-per-view of it. And then you get one weekend off per month. Obviously, you know, there's more than 28 days for most of the months.

So it doesn't exactly line up. Like, that's your rough rubric right there. Then if they want to do it, because I know that this is hard to sell them on only 36 events when we're used to 42, 44, you can do the summer sweep. The summer months, it's 12 in a row. every week into the summer months, but the rest of the year, you get three a month, you get one week off a month, and you have the summer suite.

So the summer sweep is like the full season. And I think that's ideal. I'm hoping we get to that before too terribly long. I feel like we're never going to get to that. What is this kick off here? This kicks off one, two, three, four, five. All right, only five straight. A reasonable run.

It's a very reasonable run. Getting the July 4th weekend off. barring something else happening so it's a pretty reasonable run. Nine of the next 10 though. We do have UFC cards. A lot of them are pretty good. UFC 304 good.

Obviously, I'm a Greger fight card. Whitaker, Shemaiah. If you got Sandhagen or Magamatov. There's some good cards. Yeah. That June 15th one is some Alex Perez is going to be

main eventing once again. Second main event for Alex Perez in just about six weeks time. Star is a star, you know. A star is a star. Three of his last five fights at that point will have been main events, because that's what the people are climbering for. Is he the fly with the most main events after this?

I mean, honestly. Maybe. I don't know, but that's what they call. They call the main event Alex, and he just, he goes out there and delivers in those main events, you know? Sure does. I mean, he doesn't make it to the octagon often, but when he does, it's for a main event. That is for sure. Yeah, last time out, Lorone Murphy, the Fury Usoc card,

didn't have many bets but finally got the clean sweep on the board up about like five and a half units yeah feels good feels good continues this year of i'm either burning bright or i am as cold as it gets i mean it's just like it's a roller coaster ride weekend and week out you're min maxing the year i mean i am either killing it or i am getting killed there's there's no in between for me uh i i continue you my road of doing minimal either way. I want a little over a unit, which Connor brings us to down under half a unit for the year. Well,

almost in the green. A winning week this week gets us over, should get us over the line. And so I took this weekend to make a number of silly bets. And so who wants to be a winning gambler when you can have fun doing what you love, Connor. And there was no way I was backing off of some of these bets this week. Staying in discipline this week. Five bets for me, and let's get right into it.

Let's jump right in. UFC 302 main event, Islam Makashv, Dustin, the diamond, Poria. Right now, Islam Mahershev is your sizable favorite. Minus 675 on Draft Kings, I'm seeing as big as minus 750 over on bet online. You can get Porreier as good as plus 550. You teased it last snow bets barred. Have you pulled the trigger on a dust in the diamond for you? Look, Connor, there's some certainties in life.

And when I die, chislet on my tombstone, I will not be known as a man who didn't have a good time. Because I've been as big a Makhchavah fan as there is. I was calling this man the best lightweight in the world the day Habibu. It's like, well, Islam's a dude. We're just waiting until it happens. He's the dude. And I have steadfastly supported him in all his endeavors. And it won't surprise me at all if come Saturday.

He's been very open about this. He explicitly said, I was there with Habib, when he trained to fight Dustin. We had a game plan. It worked. I don't really see why I would deviate too much from that game plan. I suspect we can have similar success. Habib's coming out here saying he's going to finish. Justin, faster than he did.

Everything points to Lamachev winning this, except for, I just, I want it. We all want it, Connor. And sometimes the universe owes us things. It owes us the good outcome.

Is it ridiculous that Porre is fighting for the title? Absolutely. If he wins, will he be the best light in the world? Probably not. Like, he shouldn't be getting this opportunity. But he is getting it and no one's upset about it. And every time this sort of situation has happened in history, it hasn't really worked out.

When Dan Henderson got a ridiculous title shot against Michael Bisping, it didn't work out. These chances don't happen because they're not supposed to, but I'll be damned if I am not going to commit all of my efforts into making it happen, Connor. So I am supporting Dustin the Diamond Poria this weekend, even against the fighter who I love an Islam-Marchchev because I do love watching Islam fight. I think that's a terrific, a terrific competitor. But for the vibes, for the scenes, for the moment, if he wins what this will mean to his legacy, what it will mean to the sport, what it will mean to the fans and for us to be

watching it, I assume you're going to this event live. Am I correct? You're incorrect. You're the watch party. I mean, you guys could watch party in what a provincial center. Just talk to some people. That's definitely not a technical nightmare or anything. You'd walk right in.

It'd be fine. Just do a cage side. Just the cage side watch party. Gage side. I love it. Easy. Definitely don't have to get any sort of permissions or anything like that. No, it's fine.

But when we're watching it, everyone will be rooting for the same thing. And so why not? It's only money, Connor. If I lose it, I lose it. But if I win, it will be one of, if not the best moments in MMA, history, it will be such a sweet victory that you've got to lay the scratch down to to will it into existence. So I'm on Dustin Porier.

You'll notice I didn't give you an ounce of technical breakdown because that's not this is about hopes and dreams, Connor. And I want to believe in the good guy winning one time. There's no technical breakdown to be had. I really just want to sort of echo a lot of things that you said. If you've been listening to No Bet's Bard for a while, we are actually both supporters of Islam, Makhash. one of the biggest bets I ever had was the Islam Makashiv to be champ by the end of 2022 at like plus 250.

I thought it was free money. Ended up being free money. It was great. He's like you said, he's like one of the greatest competitors in the UFC. He's pound for pound number one. He's wildly talented. He has this mythical aura about him because he comes from this Kabib legacy and now he has taken over the throne and he looks unbeatable. You know, I know he had the very close fight with Volkanowski.

I know he's been knocked out before, but like he looks just like The Terminator as of late, especially coming off that knockout against Volkanovsky. I like Islam Makashv. The bad news is he keeps fighting guys that I also like. His last four fights now, including this one, are Charles Olivera, Alexander Volcanowski, Alexander Volcanovsky, and Dustin Porier. Like, can we get just like some random person that I can just go back to supporting Islam because you're usually on the winning side?

to everything you said as well, you know, should Dustin Porry be getting this title shot? I mean, it's very circumstantial. That's why he's getting it. Uh, is he the better fighter entering the Octagon on Saturday? No, probably not. Uh, statistically speaking, fighters, 35 and over in title fights, men's title fights at 155 or under are 0 in 15, uh, in those, in those championship bouts. Not a lot in favor for us. Let's get through all that. Let's get through all the BS, all the downer bullshit. Let's get to the good news. Dustin Porier, he's fought in June six times.

Saturday will be his seventh because it will be June 1st. And when he fights in June, he's six and out, never lost. There's something about the month in June. I don't know if it's his sign, if the chakras are matching up. But when June comes around, he is otherworldly. Another weird stat that I came across, champions fighting on the same card as Paulo Costa, when he is not fighting for the title. I've seen this one around.

0 and 8. 0 and 8 in those fights. And guess who's in the co-main event, none other than Bojaschina, Paolo Costa. So you do the math there. The Dustin Porre statistics are 14 and O going up against this BS 35 and older 015. They pretty much even out. By my read, this should be a minus 1. 10 each way fight. I mean, that's essentially what it's telling me. These statistics do not lie.

And so we're getting Dustin Porre. I actually haven't even bet it yet. The number just keeps inflating, man. It just keeps going up. I'm wondering if we might be able to get Dustin Porre plus 600. Because I think people are just going to keep dumping on Islam. So yeah, Dustin Poria money line. I'm not going to throw a ton on it, but it's going to be, it's everything you said. I want to be a part of it. It's not that I have anything against Islam, but like for her, Dustin Poirier to win the title would just be such a magical, magical moment that like, I can't not want to be a part of it. It would be the actual coolest moment, I think, in the history of the UFC.

Like the best feel good moment of all time. Unbelievable. It would be unbelievable. Now, the fact that you said everyone wants it and is like really looking. forward to it happening makes me feel like it's just not I don't think everyone's looking forward to it happening they all want it

but everyone knows everyone is aware that it's not going to happen they're just dreaming the vocal majority this week because Islam has a ton of fans he is wildly popular but maybe it's just my timeline I'm seeing the Dustin Porreier support

but then like obviously the region where Islam is from is like fuck But I don't think anyone who's supporting Porreier is like he's going to do it. I just think that all of us are in the same boat of we want him to do it. We know that it won't happen, but we are going to believe because sometimes you want to believe. And sure, the rational part of me is like he's going to get finished. Is Lamachev is statistically a better wrestler than Habib is and is just going to take him down and Pori

get submitted a bunch. and for whatever reason the price on Islam by submission is still like pretty low and probably a terrific bet considering what's going on here but i can't do it because it's not going to happen if it happens it won't it would never happen but if it happened with the gilly i might just quit watching the sport because it's peaked it could never be better i am going to nonstop joke about the guillotine just because it's one of the best things going right now in m m m m m ms like it's just so ridiculous how this like guy that has found so much success brawling and boxing and getting knockouts is just like obsessed with getting a guillotine. And now he's going against the guy that you're just not going to guillotine. Like this is just not going to happen. But I'm going to joke about it. But like behind closed doors between me and you, no one listening. Guy's not getting a fucking gigantine.

Come on. Let's be serious. That is not happening. He's not. But, you know, he can put hands on him, maybe touches him up a little bit. Islam's too excited about his kickboxing acumen, gets tagged, shoots in, you know, while he's dazed, and then here comes the gilly, it's time. Like it's...

There's the gilly, which that leads me to another point. Be the greatest moment. Just want to throw it out there. You know, we could talk about, you know, maybe this is a bad bet, betting on Porre against just this machine in Islam. Let me want up you and give you an even worse bet. There's a sports book by the name of MGM. I don't know if you've ever heard of it. And they actually offer exactas on method of victory.

So like not just submission, you can go beyond that and go type of submission as well. Dustin Porriere by guillotine is available. Odds plus 220? I was just going to ask, what do you think the odds? I mean, like, so the odds should actually be like plus 30,000. But I bet they're lower because there's going to be action. Right now on Drafking Sportsbook, you can get Poreer by submission at plus 2,500 by guillotine on MGM plus 2,200. So just shave 300 off that to get the exact.

Don't need the 300. Keep the 300. All right. We don't want it. I know what's happening. Don't need anything else. We would hit. We would hit the bet.

anyway if we took it at plus 2,500, but we don't want it. We don't need it. We want the exact by guillotine at plus 2,200. That's how that's, we're just, we're that confident. I look, I understand, you know, it's, uh, you want to have fun. And what's a more fun bet than poor A by Gilly, you know? Uh, poor A by any submission at plus 2,500. I mean, that might. I like, I like knowing that I nailed it. I hit nail on the head killed it. Nailed it. Uh, God, that's just crazy. Like, that realistically should not have opened up anything less than plus 10,000. You're talking about a type of choke that one fighter has never accomplished in a professional mixed martial arts fight.

Well, you know he's going to try. You know he's going to shoot. He's going to jump it. He sure is. Going against the guy that I would guess is harder than your average Joe to achieve. a guillotine finish on. That should be plus 10,000. Like, that should be, like, he's almost a plus 600 underdog.

And, like, you give him me by guillotine at plus 22. That's insanity. Come up. Yeah, it's nuts. And look, all this will be moot. I'm sure it's just not going to happen, but it's fine. It will literally all be. We're going to have fun.

Oh, we're going to have fun because there's, I think there's going to be a moment. There's going to be a moment that gets you out of your seat. How long will last will it mean anything at all? I don't know. But I feel strongly. There's going to be a moment of either he lands clean on the feet. He does get in what looks like. You know, like Cormier always loves like saying how everything is tight when the guy

pops his head out 0.5 seconds later. There might be a moment like that. We're going to get a moment. We're going to get it. Boating for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Oh, what? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo? Great idea.

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Conditions apply. I mean, just let's go for a flying knee right out of the gate. Just do something. It would just be so cool. It does support a flying knee to Islamakashv a la Mazur al-Azharin. I mean, that might be it. That might be it. I'm not talking about just retiring as an MMA.

Oh, you take the gloves off, Dustin. You take the fucking gloves off and you ride off into the sunset and your star power will never burn brighter. You'll get all the Bud Light sponsorships, all the hot sauce endorsements, anything you could ever dream of. Yeah, you just take the gold gloves off and you're right off into the sunset. That's for sure. I mean, maybe you wait, right?

Like, maybe you wait for Connor Chandler. And you can do Connor for the belt. Like, you're... You don't fight. The answer is not fight Armand Srucan for the title. That's never will happen. But maybe you wait and maybe you're saying, you're saying McGregor beats Chandler,

drops down to 155. Maybe you wait just for that. And if that doesn't happen, then you just walk away outside of it. Because the money for a title fight against Connor McGregor, that you can't turn that money down. That would be so gold. Just a lightweight title fight when,

there's like probably like three or four confirmed lightweights better than both the guys out there. It would be so good. It would be so good. But look, this is the money making business and that would be the money making fight right there. That's what I want to see. That's what I want to see. That is what I want. I don't want to see Islam versus Armand too. I want to see Dustin versus Connor four. Yeah. For the belt. Let's go. Yeah. For the belt. I mean, let's actually be serious. I made a terrible statistical mistake earlier. I forgot to also mention that Dustin when fighting in the tri-state area is also 2-0. So that makes all the Dustin-Porty statistics 16-0.

Trump's your 0-15 bullshit about being 35, yada, yada, yada, yada. It should actually be Dustin Porre minus 130 as Islam plus 100. Yes. Dustin Porea should definitely be the favorite in this fight. Just slight, but yes, but yes, 100%. All right, let's move on to the co-main event, Sean Strickland, taking on Paolo Costa. Right now, Sean Strickland, your favorite at minus 2.30. Costa coming back at plus 195.

Yeah, I'm actually riding the dog again here. Yeah, man, I think that Paulo Costa is certainly live here, especially at this price. Once I saw it get, I took him at plus 205. Once I saw it hit over that 200 number, I was like, yeah, I'm going to go ahead and take that. I mean, he has showed an insane chin as of late. He puts up big volume. He has knockout power.

I love the way he works in kicks. He mixed and takedowns against Luke Rockhold. This thing is going five rounds. I don't think Sean Strickland's going to try to wrestle. I think this will just be a boxing match. And over 25 minutes, like, I just don't know how you can tell me that Palo Costa isn't a live dog. I think he very much has a chance to win this fight.

I love when you go for underdog. So I will say right off the rip here, this is not a wolf pack wage. I'm not on the underdog here. I'm hurt. I thought about it for a minute, and I decided I didn't want to bet a side here. But my breakdown, just what I have written is, I do think that at his best, Paulo Costa is a pretty difficult fight for Sean Strickland. He can make this a tough, tough battle.

Both dudes really want to be the guy who's coming forward, who is on the lead, and both are way worse when they are the ones getting backed up. And Costa just is hard to stop being that relentless pressure machine. And so I don't know if Sean Strickland's going to win that fight. If he's the one who gets Costa backing up, he's going to have a great fight. If he's not. And I don't know. It's tough to get Paula Costa back up because like you said, he has a good chin.

He believes in it. And he just comes in throwing heaters. Also, rips to the body a bunch. I love his bodywork. I think that's particularly against the way. Not just with the fist. If you go back and watch that Marvottis fight, I know he ended up losing that. But the body, the kicks to the body in that fight were like had me holding my abs on my couch.

Like the dude, I love the body work. Yes, great. Body work's huge, particularly against the way Strickland defends. I just think, like, I mean, they both put a lot of volume out there, but undeniably, Paulo Costa's volume is more substantial. Like, when he throws the same number of punches, they are just much harder than what Sean Strickland throws. And so totally get viewing him as a live dog.

I ultimately, Costa's just fought so sparingly lately. and hasn't actually won a lot. I was a little scared off by it. But what I instead went for, you said it, this fight's going long. I think both of these dudes in general go long in their fights.

Certainly cost us since he has leveled up and started fighting top tier competition. He's basically exclusively gone to decision. Strickland, a bit of a decision machine himself, durable, defensively minded fighter. It's going long. Over two and a half minus 175, and I jumped on that.

So I'm just the over two and a half of the comain. Oh, I thought you were going to go distance. I think distance is plus money, yeah? I didn't look. But I like that regardless. I mean, Sean Strickton has showed durability in the past. Obviously, both these guys have been finished,

one by Izzy, one by Pereira. But like, there is something about Paulo Costa's durability. It's Marvin, it's Marlon Chidovara-esque in the way that like, It almost looks like he hasn't been hit. He just, like, wears it so well. But, yeah, I like that pick. I like that pick.

I think this is going to be a great fight. I think Polo Costa is going to force it to be fun. And, I mean, just look where we, if Polo Costa comes out here and beats Strickland, we're getting extremely close to another fight that I am desperate to see, which is in the middleweight division right now, if you, I know that this is silly and nonsensical. if you gave me one fight I just get to Magic Wand to choose a fight I would very much like to see

Drickus Duplice fight Michelle Pahetta if I would just be so silly and I want to see it but Policost comes out here and you know gets a win over Strickland just has a hard fought battle with Whitaker he's not next in line but he could be a dude who slots in

if something happens to somebody and then Paulo Costa's fighting for a title again. So I hope you're right because it's much funnier outcomes for me if Paulo Costa wins. I think it's much funny for everybody. And let's also be clear, this is the main event of the press conference.

It has to. Oh, for sure. All right, let's keep it rolling on to the featured bout. Kevin Holland taking on Michael Oleg Seych. Right now, Holland, your favorite, minus 258, Oleg Seych, coming back at plus two, 10. Any play on this one for you? I do have a play. I kind of just have a play because I wanted to have a play less so that I have a great read on this.

If I was being more sensible, this definitely would have been a pass. But this fight rocks. This fight's going to be so much fun because Kevin Holland is a fun fighter and will give a full commentary while Michael Oleg Seych is just being a lunatic because Oleg Seych is a kitchen sink dude. he is coming out there and throwing everything he's got right from the bell and just let the chips fall. The largest loopingest overhand rights and lefts you've ever seen. I just chucking him. He's even come out to chuck them. Kevin Holland always down to get in there and mix it up. Kevin Holland, a terrific chin. I'm betting a Kevin Holland by sub prop.

Obviously, we've not a lot of success with our sub props. But Kevin Holland by sub plus 265. I think Kevin Holland is going to win. because I think he's durable enough to take Olexeychuk shots, and Oloxatioch is going to punch himself out or just get caught in being a hectic chaos monster. And Kevin Holland, I think he's going to survive the early onslaught if there is even that. And the way Oleg Seychuk chuk loses is he gets tapped.

Almost exclusively, when the man loses, it's by submission. Five of seven are getting tapped. Kevin Holland, it's not his go-to game, but this is a guy who has a number of submissions. got those long arms, maybe tags Oleg Seychic and then wraps up a dars or a guillotine, something like that in the transition. But Holland by sub plus 265. I like it. I like the thoughts, a little ziggin when the Zagin's right.

I am going with Kevin Holland. I'm just using him as a parlay piece. Yeah, Oleg Seychic, I mean, like, he really is like essentially chaos or bust. If he doesn't get the chaos, then he's likely going to lose the fight. Kevin Holland, the chin is insane. he's been finished once by Wonderboy where he had to like just beat the pulp out of him like almost like he didn't get finished he got stopped he was still ready to compete

it was like a broken hand face leg everything like the guy was just completely done um oh he's a finish he's been finished in six of his seven losses i think holland like you said i think he has a massive advantage on the ground if it goes there uh olick said something about like he's not training at a gym anymore he's training with his boys um that was before the the michel fight um yeah also the size advantage for kevin holland i think you know he always has one but i think it'll pay dividends here uh six inches reach four inches height uh yeah i think i think it's chaotic i think it's fun and i think kevin holland gets this hand race i love it we're on the same page then next up jailton almeda taking on alexander romanov right now jelton

your favorite minus 270 romanov plus 220 uh i mean it's jelton all day for me come on i can't believe this he's coming in he's picking him up taking him down and finishing the fight uh after seeing the way i know he got finished in the second round but he did have a solid first round against scarters blade's got nine takedowns i don't think everyone i feel like every time he fights throw he's like well this guy's too big for him to take down and then he comes in and like literally picks them up off of the ground and slams them down i don't think romanoff will be any day different. I think he'll get the takedowns. I think Rovinov will gas out as he does in almost any fight that he doesn't immediately finish. And Jelton Almeida, we'll get to finish. Yeah, that's a

pretty easy breakdown of a fight that I have absolutely no qualm with. Almeida, I know he lost, and people are taking that as ways that maybe you shouldn't. I was deeply impressed with just the ease with which he took Curtis Blades down. We always knew man's a one-trick pony, right? But I thought Blades is the dude to stop that trick. Turns out he wasn't. He just made it to the second round and then elbowed in a bunch and it worked out. But, like, could easily see Almeda winning a rematch there.

And if he can take down Curtis Blades with, like, that level of ease and dominance, he can take anybody down. There ain't a person in this weight class who he can't take down. So, Romanov, huge dude, good grappler. I'm excited to see what he can offer, if anything, off his back, either to create transitions or, you know, do something. But we know what's happening here. He's going to gas out in doing that. And Almeda, for his faults, is still going to be in there competing. And if anyone just looked at this fight card, you probably knew what I was doing.

There's nothing I love more than a gimmick parlay. And there are two gentlemen with the last name I'll made on this card. And I am parlaying them up, Jailton being the first. And we'll get to the second in just a little bit here. Bingo. Yeah. Jelton needs a win bad. After the Derek Lewis performance and then losing like that to Curtis Blades,

I feel like his stock is as low as it could possibly go. You're talking about Derek St. Louis, the king of the Midwest? That was a great one. That was a friggin. I don't know why we didn't buy into that more. That was such a, It was such a Just like

Just give me a minute Whenever I want to knock on my own I do know why we didn't buy it more Because neither of us made the connection With Derek Lewis and St. Louis Until we were in the middle of the show It's good times It's

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Last one on the main card. Randy Brown taking on Elizu Zaleski do Santos right now. Randy Brown, minus 180, easy DS, plus 150. Yeah, I think Zelisky is just, he's getting older, he's slower, he'll be at a pretty large size disadvantage. He's tough.

But I like the well-rounded, the youth of Randy Brown. I think he gets it done, gets it done by decision, but I will not be betting on this flight. I'm also not betting. I was very close to pulling the trigger

on Randy Brown just because he's a lot bigger, he's a lot younger, but Zaleski de Santos has been kind of a spoiler to the stars in some ways. Like he's just, he's been on really good runs. He's had a very weird career,

certainly falling short against the best dudes he's fought. I'm not sure if Randy Brown kind of jumps into that tier. But, you know, it's just tough, tough to kind of feel super confident. For a very brief moment, I was like, wait, is Randy Brown ever lost to a Brazilian?

And then I was like, yes, Vicente Lucke, even though, you know, Lucay, Northeast United States, where he lives, New Jersey guy, but still, he's not undefeated against Brazilians. He does not have the

Nicholas Dalby in him, and so I cannot support him with my money this weekend. All right, let's roll along. Roman Kapilov taking on Caesar Almeida. I mean, a guy that used to be on Contender Series gets his first win. Part

of your Almeida parlay, this feels like it's just right up your alley. I mean, this was a a contender series guy who got his own category, baby, because famously beat Alex Prairie and kickboxing. We're talking about like a legitimately world-class glory kickboxer coming over. That's proven to be one of the strongest bases for MMA at this juncture. Glory kickboxer is a terrific MMA base. And UFC knows what they're doing, man.

They knew how to match them up. They're like, hey, this guy's old. This guy's really good kickboxer. you know, maybe it gets a couple of wins and somehow we can find a way to get him in there with Pereira and we can sell the backstory of in the future. But like, let's get him Roman Kapilov, who I'm not sure has ever shot a takedown in the UFC.

Not many, not many, and I don't think he's going to do any here. He's just opposed to it. You love that for Roman Kapalov. You love a Russian dude who's like, I got no interest in the grappling arts. and against the glory kick-jarker? None. Don't even care about it.

I'm a combat Sambo world champion or whatever. Nope. Just chuck them. I think Koppelov could easily win this fight if he chooses to do the smart thing. And so I don't feel great about my Almeida parlay because it exists almost exclusively on the whims of Roman Koppelov, but I don't think Roman Koppelov is going to fight smart.

I think he's going to fight for the fans, fight for us, and give Cesar Almeida a very good chance to win this fight. Yeah, I mean, there's little of the no evidence showing that he's going to go for takedowns. I don't know why he would start here. I am also on Almeida just as a straight. Everything he just said, yeah, I mean, he's a world-class kickboxer. I think he's going to be fighting in a kickboxing match, essentially. All of Koppelov's opponents that he's beaten in the UFC were all under 500 in the UFC as well.

It doesn't really have like a signature win where I was wildly impressed. he has very good finishing capabilities there is obviously a world where he wins this fight but i think it's going to be kickboxing and i i'm going to take the uh the kickboxing he comes in here and he goes waldo cortezza costa and just starts shooting takedowns to ruin all of our fun to ruin the dismayne train i'm i'll be living oh i still have nightmares about that that performance that was a sinking feeling in my stomach all right Grant Dawson taking on Joe Selecki right now, Grant Dawson, a minus 425 favorite, only getting bigger. Joe Selecki plus 330.

Yeah, Grant Dawson coming off a bad knockout loss in 30 seconds as a minus 450 favorite. And now he is, once again, over a minus 400 favorite. And for that reason, I will be passing. I get the argument. So lekey doesn't really have power. but I mean the dude is five and two in the UFC um grant thawson off of a bad K-O I don't know there's no way I'm putting him in a in a parlay after he just got ethered at the same price I I love that line of thinking because I've taken a dog shot on

Joe Selecki um not a full unit just one for a half unit because I don't I'm not convicted in it but the price is so big don't eat it at plus 300 plus 350 actually is price out of that. Like, I just... Shout out. Dawson just shouldn't be this big of favorite. Like, I believe he is the better wrestler, and that is probably what will carry the day.

But talking to a guy who is a very good grappler, I mean, Joe Selecki, like, went to a draw with Gregory Rodriguez in grappling. Gregory Rodriguez is, like, a BGG champion, you know? It's a dude who can grapple his ass off. Has grappled bigger men, stronger men. And it's not like Dawson is going to do. that I'm going to keep this on the feet and then I'll box you.

It's not really his game either. We're going to get scrambles. It's going to get weird. They're going to be in tie-ups. And I just, I don't think laying minus $4.50 or whatever Dawson is at now is worth it. And I do think I was interested in maybe just taking a little flyer on Selecki, you know, New Jersey's own. Because here's the other thing, Connor. Shout out.

4-0 in New Jersey. Selecky's never in Jersey. hometown boy gets it done I think it moves maybe I don't think I hope it moves to 5 and 0 Winona, New Jersey I don't know

Joe So lecky play don't sound too bad right now Grand Dawson is big of a minus big as a minus 500 favorite on some sharp books you can get Joe Selecky if Joe Selecky hits plus 400 I might I might just take it

Your Jersey boy tell us about Winona You've been to Winona a bunch? I mean, you can't call yourself a Jersey guy if you haven't been to Winona. Yeah, I mean, about 2,200 populations. So Joe Selecki is going to be the pride of that place. That's pretty cool, though, when you can pretty definitively say that you are the best athlete from your hometown. Oh, yeah.

Yeah, it's all pine state preserve. I mean, if you Google it, which I'm not doing right now. this is all off the dome but if you google it you're going to come up with like big timber creek a picture of a like a a rural park playground it's dry town so you know men men didn't grow up with those demons he's just focused on the mission didn't need them didn't need them uh yeah founded in 1871 that's why josalek he has 1871 tattooed on his back uh home to a coles home depot wall greens taco bell they got everything um everything you can want, everything you can need.

It's near Philly. It's near Philly. So I hope he doesn't recognize too much with Philly. But he sure is in the beautiful. Shout out though. The Winona Wiki in the notable people. Joe Selecki is one of the notable people from Winona and certain. Let's go.

You got to love that for him. That's all I needed to hear. That's all I needed to hear. All right. We keep it rolling. Phil Roe taking on Jake Matthews. At one point, this podcast believed that Jake Matthews was the second coming. Speaking of Jersey, of Jersey Joe Walcott, former heavyweight champ, died 1994.

Matthews born 1994. No coincidence there. I mean, I thought this guy was Muhammad Ali 2.0. I mean, go back and watch that Andre Fialo fight from the lens of we had Jake Matthews at even money and tell me how you would not fall in love with this guy. Like you talk about a flow state. That's where that guy was. Uh, yeah, since he's, he's just done about nothing but burn me.

Uh, I've been burned too many times. I ain't going back to the world. I mean, 100%. You can't. I almost talked myself into it. Um, but I did realize something in doing the research here. This is for us, I just want to lay this here now. So in the future, we can remember because the next time he fights, found a, found a interesting

little rhythm here to Jake Matthews. Jake Matthews losses. Oh, and four in Las Vegas. The man can handle the bright lights of fight capital. Can't stand in city. Can't stand city. He's also lost twice in Adelaide. So he's not doing great home country for some reasons.

It's Adelaide. But I'd hate Adelaide too. Adelaide Crows. The man is never lost outside of Australia or Vegas. And so I was almost like, okay, we're not in Australia or Vegas. He should win. But I'm going to think about it. This is, instead of betting it, now we're going to see if he wins,

then I'll know for next time. If he's not fighting in Australia, he's not fighting in Vegas for betting him. And if he's in Vegas, bet the house against him mayn can't win in Sin City. Boom, boom. I like that. I like that moving forward.

All right, a couple more here. Nico Price taking on. Alex, the great white Marono. Unfortunately, it is not Shark Week, but we are getting the rematch. We've all been asking. Everybody's been wanting. I mean, yeah, questions need to get answered.

Nico Price gets the K-O win last time. in February of 2017, but then fails a drug test for marijuana. So no wins. Now it's all in the line of Newark. It's not even technically a rematch. Yeah. Yeah, I guess no confidence. It's like it never happened.

Since that, though, price six and seven finished in six of those losses. Marona goes to a lot of decisions. By the way, I am on the under two and a half. Marano goes to a lot of decisions, but I think this one's going to get chaotic. We've already seen it go under that. And Price 13 of a 16 UFC fight. have not gone to a decision. They're both older, both less durable.

I think both are live for a finish start this whole thing. Connie, you said something that was correct, and it's not Shark Week. But in my research, I came to realize something, Connor. I came to realize something about the wonderful, magical state of New Jersey. I don't know. Everything you said about it is true just there. I don't know if you know this, because I didn't know this until I was diving in. I wouldn't say this is what Jersey is the most famous for, probably because they don't want this press to be out there.

But the truth is the reason that Jaws exists, the reason that sharks have such a bad rap in the American consciousness is because of the Jersey Shore shark attacks of 1916, a series of shark attacks that are credited with turning the public perception against sharks. which then leads us to where we are now, to having shark week would not exist without the state of New Jersey. And so now the great white. You really had to do some work for this one. I sure did. But now the Great White is coming back to the state that ruined his kinsman. And he's not going to take this laying down.

Another shark attack. Another series of shark attacks is happening. It's happening June 1st. and it's happening courtesy of Alex Marono, the Great White. He's getting the win, and I bet him over Nico Price. We need a Alex Marono fight night main event during Shark Week in like Martha's Vineyard or somewhere like on an island in New England. It would be the biggest lock of all time.

When they go to South Africa for DDP, Alex Marono competes in Cape Town, we just got to make sure it's next July. I love it. I love it. Do you have any more bets? I do have one more bet. Okay. It's sure not. I am not laying an enormous price on Basil Huffet.

That's what I was going to say. I think Basil Huff Fest is going to win, but it's Mickey Gall off a two-year layoff. I was genuinely shocked by how big this number was. Yeah, minus 350. Not putting an 8-4-1 fighter at minus 350 off of a split decision loss in the I mean, I know he like gave Jack Della a hard fight, but we're really vibe in here for And Mickey Gall is Mickey Gall off a two-year layoff. Like I understand all of those things, but I just got no interest.

Don't need to be sweating my balls off at 640. Jocelyn Edwards, Aileen Perez. I got nothing here. I suppose Aileen so we can see something crazy in front of the pay-review crowd. I got nothing here either. I mean, this is almost certainly going to the cards. And I thought about betting that. Sure.

I was just like I don't honestly care enough to do it. I'm all right. Yeah, I feel like I've matured a little bit to where I'm just like, I don't need to bet on this. Andre Lima, Mitch Raposo. Late replacement for Mitch Raposo steps in on short notice coming up from Cage Titans. Andre Lima, back from the big bite fight. I feel like Lima's got the better striking.

I think he can avoid the takedowns. I think it gets it done, but no better. I agree. Has the better striking. Can avoid the takedowns. Raposo coming in on short notice. I do actually like Raposo kind of as still a young prospect, Titan FC champion or whatever,

but Lima said it a bunch on this podcast. Lima is one of the dudes, Big Pauls on the puppy in my most recent Contenture Series scouting report. Those guys, 8 and 0 in the O.C. Connor. Now, nine and one. If you look at all my top scouts, nine and one with Big Tom Nolan getting the win the other week. Big Tom got the one doesn't even count because he got a redemption.

And so Andre Lima, hoping to move us to 9 and 0 for the Big Pause prospects and just keep on grinding. Hashtag Big Pause on a Puppy. That's how it's done. 30 minutes for the main card, 15 minutes for the prelims. I have nothing on the 5V5 in boxing. Do you have anything? I didn't look at it because I forgot. I don't know how I forgot because I was covering the misfits boxing and all.

on DeZone. Shout out. And they, I mean, all they did was advertise that to a point where I like, I got pretty pumped. It's like, all right, that'll be kind of fun. It's going to be a great card. There's some good fights. Jaili Jean, Deante Wilder.

I'm really looking forward to Hergevik in there. I mean, Bivel's not getting the fight that he was supposed to. But, I mean, still getting to see Dmitri Bivel. You know, I wish it was against Better Beaville. But yeah, it's a little on Deont at this current juncture. plus 136 on a couple books plus 120 on drafts. I'll be betting Deontay at plus money for sure. Shout out.

That's because that'll be fun. All right. UFC 302 in the books short and sweet for you. Got deep on what we needed to get deep on. And that's that. Next up is what is next up? I don't even look forward to these things anymore. I'm only just locked in on the current car.

of you see Louisville is. Canineer, Umaboff. I did know that. I could not have pulled that out of my head. Mainly because whatever Jared Canineer's name gets mentioned, I immediately black out and try and forget that he happened. Yeah.

All right. Well, we'll talk about that next week. So we turn to Dominic Ray as too. O'N. O'N. Dominic Ray is back. 12 or whatever it is. Oh, and A and his last 12.

That's a stat for you. All right. Louisville, next week. Say it then.