MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Dustin Poirier Or Justin Gaethje Claim The Vacant BMF Title At UFC 291?

Episode Date: July 26, 2023

With July coming to a close, the UFC returns for its second pay-per-view of the month with this one headlined by a fight for the vacant BMF title fight between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, and so the No Bets Barred boys are back to break down all the fights. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a brief recap of UFC London before diving into a full breakdown of UFC 291. Topics discussed include who wins the Fight of the Year rematch between Poirier and Gaethje, Jan Blachowicz's chances to knock off Alex Pereira, Michel Pereira's shot at the top of the welterweight division, and more. Tune in for episode 55 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is going on, y'all? We are back. Another edition of No Bet's Bar this time for UFC 291. Dustin Porriere taking on Justin Gachie. It's the Battle of the Ustins for the U. the BMF belt. We're back in Salt Lake City. Should be fun. Should be ridiculous. We're at elevation. Banger card. I mean, sick matchups. Absolutely cannot wait. Jed, how we feeling, brother? How we feeling going into this one? Look at this. The month of July, just giving us banger after banger after banger.

I mean, banger after banger after banger after banger. Hollywood Monroe and Civil Guard Yeah, bangor After banger after banger. I'm sorry, uncrowned title fight, banger. Just four bangers right down the middle and we're capping it off with this one,

which is I'm not ashamed to say it. My most anticipated fight. I think there's one fight that you could possibly book that I might be more interested in than this, but Poye Gaci 2. This is about as interested in a fight as I could possibly be.

So I'm stoked. It's hard not to be excited for, man. I mean, these are two guys that throughout their entire career, there has been zero evidence to suggest that this fight is not going to be absolutely electric. Like, I feel like the only way it isn't is if there's a super early knockout. And even then, that'd be pretty crazy. It'd be super crazy. I don't even think it's probably, like, really all that probable.

I mean, anytime you're going to get a rematch of the fight of the year, you got to be hyped. One, that just happens so very rarely in this game in general. And two, it's a reason they were a fight of the year at one point in time. Like, these guys match up in that way. I'm sure it's been a while. They've changed a lot. We'll get into that.

Also, a rematch of the fight of the year with two guys that constantly put on fights of the night. And I'm pretty sure Gaichi has been in another fight of the year. Wow. Excuse me. Another fight of the year since this. So it's not like they just had like a one moment where it was like, man, that was such a banger. And then they have put on a couple boring performances since. Like these dudes were in the fight of the year.

And then since they've had incredible fights almost every time they enter the Octagon. Yeah. So just absolutely insane. Gachi is actually one of two men to have three fight of the years. The other being Robert Glenn Lawler. He had one fight of the year before. this, before this fight, the first fight with Porier, his fight with Michael Johnson in 2017, the year before the Porier was Fight of the Year. And then obviously the Poirier won was

fight of the year. And then the Michael Chandler fight for our good, good sir here ends up being fight of the year as well. So this dude, not many people get down like Justin Geachie. And does he say, how many people get down like Dustin Porriere, Tide for most fight of the nights in UFC history, tied with Nate Diaz, Frankie Edgar, Edson Barbosa, all with eight. Oh, he's about to take the lead. Edson Barbosa kind of sneaking in there with eight.

Edson Barbosa, not sneaking for me. Eddie Barnes is always, I love watching them fight, but like to have as many as Nate Diaz, Frankie Edgar, and Dustin Porier, that's impressive. So yes, cannot wait for this car. Quick little look back at UFC London. Our boy Tommy. I mean, he's back.

That's about all I can say. He's back, baby. Yeah, that was quick. It was quick and efficient. Yeah. Quick and brutally efficient. I was at a wedding, and I was kind of laying out the game plan of, like, my bets of what I needed.

And essentially, a Tom Asphenol first round finish was just glory for me. And when it happened, I was real hype. I was happy I was at an open bar when it happened. Oh, yeah. Just kick one back. and celebrate the good times. Celebrate the good times, baby. I actually had a great week.

Finished up five units, feeling good heading into 291. Three straight winning weeks. Knock on wood. That's me knocking on wood. We can keep it going for 291. I love that. I finished up very slightly because I did end up deciding to believe in our boy, Paul Craig,

belief that paid off. Let's go. And just two important things. One, one and one on heavyweight overs. But the one was dog money. So we ended up 0.05 units on heavyweight overs. They continue to ride. Though this week, bit sketchy.

We'll get into that later. And then the most important thing, Connor, I broke it, man. I just, I broke it. ChatGPT cannot be defeated. Another chat. I was thinking of you. Success. Nine and three overall plus four and a half units of equity here.

Jess. I think the combination of, it was Lorone Murphy, correct? That is accurate. I think it was the combination of, it was his birthday. He was in front of his home crowd and Chad GPT told us, like, why we didn't unload the clip, I mean, he was like minus 130. Like, man, we were, like he looked, and he looked fantastic. He looked so much more than a minus. Oh my God. He looked like a minus 350, dude. He looked, he looked absolutely fantastic. Great performance by him. I have to say, our penny Kianzad by decision bet was, I'm not even going to say, misguided is a great term for it.

I'm not even going to say it was that like bad of a time because it took five minutes and five seconds for me to realize it wasn't going to hit because she got controlled the complete first round. And then we came out round two, taken down immediately. And I was like, this ain't hitting. This is not hitting.

Yeah, that's it. I honestly didn't feel bad about any of my misses last week. Like, I think there is a very good argument. I wouldn't say robbery, but a very good argument that David Grant beat Daniel Marcos. Close with a very close fight. Yeah, very close fight. So ended up, you know, missing on that one. And the rest of it's just, okay.

Like, yeah, sure, it happens. Joel Alvarez probably shouldn't have beaten Mark Diakisi. That probably should have been a no contest. They head clash, yeah. Yeah, you get it coming and going both the way. It's just how it goes. Variance is a thing in this sport. I also cashed on Joel Alvarez.

I am sure the gambling gods will take that back away from me in due time. I have no doubt. This game always finds a way to even itself out. I'm giving them a lot of chances this weekend, buddy, to take things back from me. I got a feeling. I'm on a decent amount of violence bets, a decent amount of hunters. I see a wildly frustrating back and forth affair that it feels like it's going to get finish 19 different times but goes to the scorecards in my future.

I got a good feeling that's going to happen to me this weekend. I mean, that sounds electric. It's going to be fun. Yeah, there's no, the two best bets in the world are an over that you're not sweating at all, that it's just cruising, and then a finish comes out of nowhere, like just a flash KO comes out of nowhere, and you're a loser by like 30 seconds short. and then the other side of that when you're on and under

and there's so many opportunities to finish the fight. It looks like it's going to get finished and then it does. You've got Joe Rogan screaming, that's it. It's super tight. And as soon as he says it,

you're like, Joe. I don't think anything triggers me more than when I'm on and under and Cormier's like, oh, that's tight, he's got this one locked up. And like you can clearly see it's not. You're like, no,

he's about to pull his head out right now. Like a nice guillotine attempt that turns into four and a half minutes of control time. There's nothing worse that triggers me more than just like, oh, he's got that tight. This could be the end. And it's like, nah, it's not even close. Yeah. Well, hopefully that won't be happening to you this weekend. Let's hold not.

Let's hold not. Let's keep the good vibes rolling. Let's finish off July on a high note. And let's dive right in. UFC 291. We start with the main event. I've said it many times in the lead up to this, but it has to be said again. Hundreds, at least dozens, have held gold.

They've had gold wrapped around their waist. Only one has had silver. This weekend, that becomes two. The BMF title on the line in Salt Lake City, Utah, Dustin Porier, taking on Justin Gagee, five rounds. If we need it, if we need it. I think these boys are going to come in here and get to work. Yesterday I saw you tweeted, your job was to watch back old Porre and Gaichi films.

Tell me what you learned. What are we got here? Where are we going with this fight? I want to just start by saying my job kicks ass when I got paid. It's not a bad work day. From home, Sue? A very strong work day. Just sitting at home.

Yep. Sitting at home, that doesn't, that's hard to beat. That's hard to beat. Just being like, all right, fight pass. Let's cue up some DP, some Gae. Let's just, you know, settling and enjoy. If I wasn't working, could have cracked a beer? Would have been the best.

That's a little thing we call gratitude. Yeah. Not enough people practicing it out there. We're just practicing a little gratitude on old NB right now. Love it. Thank you. Mavitin.com. Your great website.

This fight, Connor, I don't think we can understate how electric this fight is going to be. I am so excited. and I'm going to tag us back into U.S.C. London for just a moment because I had an epiphany in UFC London while I watched Tommy Aspinall just absolutely run through Marcin Tebrough. And something struck me and it's so simple. And I'm sure that other smarter betters than me have thought of something similar, but took me this long in it. And I was like, that's it. That's the code. That's going to be my guiding light moving forward. And so before we get into a big breakdown of this fight, I'm going to try something new this week. And it's going to be pretty simple.

Even, like, I don't have it written out, but I sort of reflexively or intuitively have fighters in tiers of quality. Like, okay, these guys are about the same. This guy's way better. Like, here it is. And I didn't it all in my head, like, if you had asked me in London, I'm like, yeah, Tom Aspinall is very clearly in a different tier of fighter than Marcin Tabara. And then when they fought, I was like, oh, yeah, that's what happens when two guys in different tiers compete. One dude just blows the doors off the other one. And so as I kind of sat there and pieced myself with it, I was like, well, Justin Poy and Justin Gachey, could it be in more similar tiers of fighting?

They are, I mean, if you look at their careers lately, they've been fighting a lot of the same dudes with very similar results. You know, they both fell short to Charles Oliver, both beat Michael Chandler. they're two sides of the same coin. They are tied here together, and maybe one's a little bit better than the other. We're going to find that out, I guess, this weekend. But mostly, I think, this is just two guys who are dead even all the way through.

And so if that's going to be the case, I'm going to take the value. So I am going to be betting on Justin Gaichi for the main event. There are a number of sort of reasons factored into it beyond that, and we can dive into this. But I just want to start there of, I think these guys are just really competitive. And on one of them, the price is minus 150.

The other, the price is plus 130. Just take the value instead of taking the hope you spike at play. So before we jump into the breakdown, where are you at here, Connor? All right. So first things first, I never want to condone, you know, forcing bets or really just betting in general, as I say this on a betting podcast. But if you were ever going to bet on a fight, just to pick one side of it just to have a little fun, this would be a good one to do it. And I absolutely love that you're taking Justin Gachie,

because I can't, I can't rip on anyone taking either side of this because of what you said is a dead even fight. Honestly, you probably should just sit back and watch it and not have a bet on it. But it's the BMF title. I needed a dog in the race. And I'm back in, I'm back in Dustin Porrier, and I love that you're on Gagee. Listen, I love this because it feels like, it feels like I'm Ash Ketchum, and I took the Bulbosaur, and you took the squirrel. You're going to help you in those early gyms that Bulbosur. That's what I'm saying. You took, you're Gary and you took the Charmander to go against my Bulbysore.

This is fantastic. I love that we're at odds here because I literally have in the notes, I'm like, I cannot take this bet with insane confidence. I took Porier at minus 130, and it's just a simple 1.3 unit bet to win one unit, not a ton, just enough to to have a dog in this race. And my biggest reasoning was A, I like the Sampori.

B, I really, honestly, I don't think we give enough credit. That is the best reason to bet on anybody. It's not, I think they're going to win or this is a sound investment. I like the dude. That's how you should be betting. I like Dustin Boree.

Honestly, because when you don't back your guys and then they win, you feel like a fool. You feel like a fraud. It's like the worst thing ever. Like, not in UFC, but Novak Djokovic is my guy. I didn't bet on him in the French Open. I bet against them who he'd beaten the semis, Carlos Alcaraz. And I was like, I'm such an idiot.

Like, I am such a loser, dude. And it just wasn't a fun affair. Love Porre's hot sauce. I've been keeping this thing on me, like a strap all week. I mean, I just pulled it right out of my backpack. Anything I've been eating, the Porier's Hot Sauce. K-O edition could be meaning something here. has been going on all my food.

Yeah, I kind of like the guy. And another thing, I think this is going to be a war. Their last fight was a war. And in a war, really, like, other than Justin Gachie, who would I want in a war more? Maybe Dustin Porier. I mean, the dude gets into wars, and a lot of the times, he's winning these wars. I mean, if you look back on his career, Dan Hooker fight, absolute war gets the dub. The Max Holloway fight.

Absolute war gets the dub. I mean, just recently, the Chandler fight. war only three rounds but a war gets the dub so if these guys are going to go to war i'm going to back the guy that i that i like i mean i love the the louisiana he's a he's got a little bit of that southern charm that we've got i love the uh i want to say this as nice as possible i love the outfits like i love the wardrobe of dustin poria it's the the poria drip it's very specific to him but he pulls it off because he's dust and porre uh so yeah this is going to be a fun fight i love that we're at odds, and I can't wait

for it. If you want to get into a technical breakdown, let's do it. I love that we're at odds, because it lets us both make the case here. I get to come here and I get to say, here's why my outside of just like the, I think this is even take the underdog, here's if I'm selling this fight, why

I'm picking Justin Gehie. Because it's pretty simple, right? Just off the rip, because I have had a dozen, like literally dozens of people ping me this, and I am not sure I honestly don't know if it's true or not, and frankly, it's not playing a huge factor in my decisions,

but a lot of people have been shouting like, man, Poirier just got to Utah, the elevation, Gaci trains in Denver. Gachy's been in Utah for weeks already. And if those, like, if that's true, then that is like definitely a bit of a bonus for Gage. I mean, he does train at elevation. If he really has been acclimating for the last, you know,

two weeks or whatever, that's definitely like a very small, feather in his cap, but also Dustin Poirier's professional mixed martial arts, mixed martial artists, Dustin Poir has been fighting for 15 years. This man is not his first rodeo at doing something like this. It is not ATT's first rodeo at doing something like this. I don't realistically have any fear or doubt that Poirier is not going to be prepared to go five rounds at elevation in an absolute war. What you're saying is true. I, you know, I do the Instagram, the Instagram,

checks, you know, sometimes you can learn a little bit about a fighter when you do that. Looking at Dustin Porreys, he did get there within the last two weeks. Like, he will only have had two weeks to lead up. He did get there recently. But the most recent picture he posted was him in the mountains after a five-mile run, and he is just in, he's shredded, dude. I mean, we're talking eight-packed, fine. Like, this is not, we're not having Derek Lewis, Marcos, Regerio Delima,

and Derek Lewis is getting to Utah two days before. Like, we're not a, like, this dude is a lightweight in top tier physical shape. I get, like, the concern for it. I get the impulse for people to say it. Especially after last card, but, like, it definitely, I worry that it's going to get overrated in a fight like this. Yeah, I think, I think the elevation is going to be a factor in some of the other fights, and we'll talk about that. The main event is one that I just don't really have a huge belief that that's going to play a major role. I could be wrong.

Oh, of course. Be wrong. Trust me. Listen, I can always be wrong. But ATT has been doing this long time. Dustin Poy has been doing this long time. The fact that they went to Utah not that long ago and it was such a major storyline, I am extremely confident that this was factored in to the ATT, that they are like, oh shit, air's a bit thin up here.

This is going to be tough. I think they're going to be ready for it. So, but I just have seen, I've had that said to me so much, wanted to get it out of there. That's not really factoring in. Here's my breakdown in this fight. I think Poyer, and the reason Poyer won the first one, Poyer is a much better defensive fighter, right?

Like he doesn't take that many clean shots. He will get hit, but he's really good at rolling off him. And in the first fight, Gigi was a really poor defensive fighter because that had never been his thing. The biggest thing for me is that lost to Poree, that was the fight that changed Justin Gage. that made him kind of go go back to the well, re-evaluate things. He had lost Eddie Alvarez already, but he came into the Porre fight and was still the same guy.

And following that, that's when we saw the James Vic, the Edson Barbosa, Soroni, the Ferguson. The Ferguson is the big one because that's Tony Ferguson, arguably at the peak of his powers. And Justin Gatesy just batters him around the cage for five rounds, basically. He started putting, he's still not as good a defensive fighter as Porreier, but he, is a more responsible defensive fighter. He gets hit less. He mitigates those exchanges in a substantial way. And he hits so fucking hard that that's really what his game started to come down to,

is controlling those car crashes, as he called it, that violence, instead of just letting it run rampant and seeing what happened. He can still go to the well when he needs to. We saw against Fizziv, he was starting to lose like a classic striking battle, and then just sort of was like, all right, let's put our hearts on it. and see who comes out on top. So he still has that in him, but for me, that's going to be the biggest difference, is that he is more defensively responsible this time.

And that first one was an absolute war, but I think that Gaichi's now, Gaecchi's newfound ability to protect himself more effectively is going to make him a more dangerous fighter than he even was in the first one, and that that's going to be a big gap for Porier. The thing I'm a little concerned about is the grappling. Gachi is not a good grappler off his back. Every time he's gone to the floor, it's been mostly poor.

Good defensive wrestler in general, but we've seen Porreux have good takedowns, kind of pull that out. So I mentioned it to see if that plays a role in it. And then I'm just interested to see how long Dustin Porier can do this, realistically, because people talk about Justin Gaichie as having a few. on his career. And I think that's true. Like he said it himself, you only have so many you can take. Dustin Poyer just, dude has never been knocked down, I think. Maybe he was knocked down like 10 years ago, but you're looking at all his recent fights.

Michael Chandler was putting it on him early and then sort of faded. And Dustin, Michael, we know Michael Chandler hits real hard. It just seems impossible to me that Poree can get hit because he's starting to get hit more. but his chin is still just incredible. And so I have a little bit of concern that at some point that's just going to fall, just a fraction. And when it does, that's going to be an issue. So that's kind of my read.

I think we are just going to get a havoc battle, just two dudes in the middle getting after it. And for me, you say, who wouldn't, who would you want to pick over Dustin Porre in just a war? And I think I just want Justin Gage and a war coming off that physique fight where, I'm super impressed because I'm super impressed with who Fazeev is. And Gachi, that's a bad matchup for Gachi in a lot of respects. And he managed to find ways through it. I think this is a more manageable matchup. And I like his chances at least.

Got that first takedown under his belt as well. Yeah, I mean, Dustin Porier has never been knocked down other than obviously when he got knocked out by McGregor and knocked out by Michael Johnson. So like when you're talking about a stand-up, bang out war, he has never been knocked down. which is absolutely insane when you consider the list of hitters he's fought. You know, Charles Olivera, hitter, Michael Chandler, hitter, fought Connor two more times, hitter. It's just, it's insane. At the end of the day, like, I think this is just going to be a close competitive fight.

And, like, it's, I don't think anyone's going to massively separate themselves throughout. But a finish, I feel like is much more likely than not. Like, I just feel like they're going to be going after it's so hard. I agree. I just don't know if someone- You think finish inside of three rounds? Because I think late round, I think championship round finish. I'm also big on the leg kicks from Gachi.

I know Poyer is himself a very solid with the calf kicker as Connor, you know, made a big deal out of. But you look at their first fight, like, Poirier almost exclusively targeted the head while Gachi was about 50-50 head to leg. And I think that I just, that in a fight. round fight, that's just going to pay dividends as the fight wears on. Yeah, this and Porier landing 142 head strikes in the last fight. So yeah, he was really going to the head. He actually makes him the body of decent amount as well. Went to the body 21 times as opposed to Gaichy's.

That would be his best. I think that's his best avenue. Gachie still works the high guard, leaves his body open. Poirier starts ripping the ribs. Interesting note. As much of a war as it was, and you mentioned the grappling and that could be a route, uh dust and porriere did attempt five takedowns in that fight got shut down oh yeah didn't land any of them but that's the thing is gachi is a good defensive wrestler but when he ends up on the

floor like if porier can you know if something happens a trip and fall over or whatever uh as a huge advantage for pori on top gaiji doesn't have much to offer there yeah it could it could be interesting and i and you never know if it does end up going the five rounds i mean that that that could be a way that Porier banks around or something. I don't know. It's going to be incredibly interesting. I would be bold-faced lying to you if I had any sort of insane confidence. Oh, yeah.

No confidence. Like, it's just like, I really, I'm just being blunt with you guys. I just want a dog in the fight. I like Porri-Yeh. It's going to be sick. Give me someone to cheer for. And let's have some fun. Let's have some fun.

If Justin Gachie wins, like, there will be no shock in me at all. I mean, yeah, if Dustin Porre, it wins, it won't. Flip a coin. I'm just taking the plus value on the coin flip. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Ugh, what? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo? Great idea.

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Let's keep it rolling on to the co-main event. Men's Lightweight bow, Jan Blahovich, taking on the 205 debuting Alex Pereira. Right now, Blahovich, a slight favorite, another very closely lined fight. Right now, Jan's sitting at minus 125 Pereira. Pira plus 105. I looked at this fight for a long time. I'm very excited for this fight, but for me, like, just thinking on it, if Jan comes in with a smart game plan, there is a world where he makes this look somewhat easy.

Like, if he can come out here and implement takedowns, be able to hang in the striking when it is standing, I think he can make it look somewhat easy. And then on the flip side of the coin, I thought about Pereira for a little bit, but the questions surrounding him. Like, he got knocked out cold back in April. Like, it took him a while to get back to his feet. Didn't really know where he was. That isn't great.

This is his first fight at 205 against the guy that is, that is, he's not a skinny 205. Like, he's, Jan is full, man. And he does have the choice to go to the grappling. And I feel like there's a world where he does. But I don't know if he's going. to. And just with how many question marks I have surrounding this, I'm just, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy it. I'm on Yon Blahovic for this one. I don't blame you. And it's for a lot of the reasons.

I'm a little surprised at the price. I thought Blahovic would be a little bit more favorite. He's just a more proven mixed martial artist. But it's just a lot of love for prayer out there. I've seen a lot of people. I know you have as well, because you got tagged in many of the same posts, Connor. A lot of people being like there's a gimmick gimmick parley dead in the shoe the Pereira parley is out there bad Pereira parley look i love it as a gimmick the problem is i don't i don't like perera's chances here i mean look he always has the opportunity to just go boop and put somebody away he more so than maybe anyone in the history of this sport he has that sort of death touch that he can just that just ice you out of nowhere but i think honestly

Honestly, I think Bohovic is one of the more difficult matchups for him to start at 205. Maybe not the most difficult, but I think he would have a way better chance against like a Jamal Hill or whatever because Belhovic is so well-rounded. One of the big things to me initially when I was thinking about this fight is the kicks. Pereira is not like a huge kicker, but it is a really important part of his game as a tempo setter as a way for him to kind of get into offense. and open up the hands. Bohovic is one of the best defenders of kicks in mixed martial arts. I mean, Magroman and Kalaya's game is heavily reliant on kicks, and that's why he had to go to the takedowns against Plohovich,

because he couldn't get the rest of his striking to work. I think if this was purely a kickboxing match, Bohovic is obviously disadvantaged. That legendary Polish power is not the same as Alex Barrero power, frankly. And his chin is probably not as good as Pereira's either, But I think he is going to come in with a smart game plan of the takedowns. And I cannot get Israel Addisina taking Alex Pereira down and controlling him for three minutes out of my head. I mean, if Izzy did that, Belloevich can do that and a lot more.

Maybe the added muscle, you know, maybe not cutting the weight will help Pereira as a defensive wrestler. He's not an awful one. But I just think Bohovic is good enough to effectuate a wrestling game plan. I think that is going to be his primary focus. coming into this. He's not going to be afraid to fight on the feet, which is always a huge part of being a successful wrestler. You have to at least be willing to compete there. And I just think this is going to line up really poorly for him. And this fight's going to look, frankly, a lot like the Izzy Blahovic fight. It's just going to be Blahovic Pereira.

And instead of competing on the feet for a while, he's going to go to takedowns pretty quickly. so i uh i like the price at minus 120 um and that's where i took my shot i'm also debating um taking a little you know like half unit flyer on blovich by submission at plus 500 like blohovic is so well-rounded his uh if you look at his what is it 29 career wins 11 or by decision nine by k o nine by submission like the man is he he can get it done in any fashion and i think it's probably more likely that he just rides to a decision against Pereira. But maybe he gets on top for a while. Things get a little dicey.

He locks in an arm triangle chope somewhere in there. Legendary Polish arm triangle. Legendary Polish arm triangle. It's a thing. Yeah, dude, I don't think anything. I think your reasoning is sound. I mean, honestly, I watched a little clip from Blahovic and Bisping talking, and he's like, yeah, I want to test my striking against Pereira.

And that only makes me believe he's going to go to the grappling. Like he's just like, I just can't imagine a guy, 40, been around the game, been around the block for a while, man. Champion. Champion has fought a dude coming up from 185 that is an absolute killer before in Adasania. And what did he do? I have this grappling advantage. I'm going to lean on that to help me win this fight. I just can't imagine Blajovich and his team is going to be like stand in strike with the elite kickboxer for 15 minutes.

But I don't know. I mean, what if we see Pereira stuff in a couple of takedowns? I mean, that would be really impressive because he has not looked like a good defensive wrestler, frankly. I mean, statistically he's not bad, but you go back to like the mechalatus fight, his first one in the UFC. He and granted a little while ago, like you just sort of look at that fight, and he did get taken down a bunch. And then where he is,

the Bruno Silva one, I think is the most instructive. Because you look at the Bruno Silva fight, and Silva basically got takedowns at will in the first two rounds. And then the third round, he misses a ton of them because at that point, he's already taken some damage. He is simply afraid of Alex Pereira, and that really weakens his game.

But against guys who are willing to compete on the feet, He hasn't. That's why is he. Fabled D1 collegiate athlete, Israel Adisina, manages to get a takedown and have three minutes of control time. And that's, I just can't get away from that. That's too much for me with Blahovic, who is a very, very capable fighter.

Well, that made a latest fight. I was on Pereira. That was his UFC debut. And at first round, I was like, well, God, what did I get into here? Like, is he really just going to get controlled this entire fight? Obviously, he lands the knee early in round 10. too. But yeah, it was a little bit concerning.

That fight, I was, I distinctly remember being like, why did we possibly match up this dude with a guy with the BJJ Blackbell who is exclusively going to do this? And then it turned out, actually, he's not very good, so it's fine. I don't think this is that crazy. Alex Pereira is like plus 650 to win by decision. Now here's... I don't think that's crazy at all.

Here's what I'm saying with this. It's like Bruno Silva, they go to a decision. Izzy, he did knock him out, but it was in the fifth round. Like, there is a world also. It is Jan Blahovic. It's not like he's some chinny dude. Blahovic is tough, man. Tough as nails.

Like, there's a world where if they spend enough time on the feet that Pereira can win a decision. Oh, absolutely. I'd like the price to be a little bit bigger, but I would say that that is, very much in the realm of possibility here. You know, Blahovic maybe wins one round on the ground. Pereira is able to stuff enough takedowns, and Blahovic can survive, you know, for the remaining 10. I think that's very much in play.

We shall see come Saturday evening, cannot wait for that fight, going to be hopefully a bangor. Hopefully it isn't just too much wrestling. Hopefully we do get to see some cool stuff happening. We'll roll along on the main car. Let's get this thing moving. Nice 30 minutes on the main combate.

Now we start flying. Stephen Wonderboy Thompson taking on Michelle Pereira. Right now, you can have Stephen Thompson for minus 150 Pereira coming back at plus one. Thoidi. Your thoughts on this fight? The MMA world just can't seem to quit Stephen Thompson is frankly my primary thought. I guess he should be a favorite. he's certainly a more proven fighter,

but like everything we have seen from Stephen Thompson over the past few years, there's a very clear path to victory against this man. You just tackle him. You simply tackle him. Paul Muhammad did it like eight times. Gilbert Burns did it like eight times. Jeff Neal didn't even try to do it and he lost.

Vicente Leuke didn't try to do it and he lost. Kevin Holland didn't do it until he was already getting his ears boxed off in like the fourth and fifth. fourth round or whatever. You just, you stand up and strike with him, you're playing into his game. Maybe you can win.

We've seen people win striking matches with him, but you gotta be really, really talented to do it. Even as, you know, Wonder Boy is 40, I think. You know, he's Wonder Man now by any definition.

Michelle Pereira is exactly the sort of fighter who might be dumb and just choose to go Capoeira versus karate. Like, that is, that is, the range of outcomes here, certainly.

And if that's the case, Stephen Thompson is probably going to win because his karate is better than Pereira's Capoeira. Pereira is going to, if he's striking, do a bunch of weird stuff, which I am charmed by, but is probably not super effective, particularly against an opponent who is going to be setting a very long range. But all he has to do is take him down.

Michelle Pereira has proven to be a capable wrestler. He's not the best one you've ever seen. but he can absolutely do it. That's all he has to do. I already put the bet in, and so I'm just living with it, and I bet Michelle Pereira at plus 150. And then as I started,

I love that. I got to say, I'm happy to hear you say that this is a wolf pack because I need you to talk me off the ledge. Because I got to say, Pereira, at elevation, concerning. If you're going to be concerned about a fight in terms of elevation, there's a few on this card.

This is probably one of them, yes. Michel Pereira, as the fight goes on, it starts, you know, feels like he's not as fresh as when the first bell goes off. Because all he does is do jumping, flying, spinning hook kicks and uses all his gas. Yeah, someone I think it's Mike's MMA picks on Twitter posted a great video of him, just jumping, flying knees back in the locker room. for like 45 seconds straight. It's just like, let's reserve that gas tank till we get there, bud. Feels like, hopefully, you know, from the embedded,

hopefully he's getting ready, hopefully he's aware of the concerns. But here's something I want to throw out to you. Here's something I want to throw out to you. Michel Pereira is 5-0 in his last five fights, five-fight winning streak for the guy. Average fight time? 14 minutes and 56 seconds.

Four of those going to a decision. He can fight for 15 minutes, and he can win in 15 minute fights. Here's another thing I want to throw out to you. I also, so we're clear, I also have a half unit wager on Pereira by decision at plus 275. You're kidding me! You're reading my mind over here. You're reading my mind over here, kid. I took Michel Pereiro by decision at plus 300.

I felt like that is just crazy to where the line is at now. Four decisions in a row. The over, dude, his most likely win condition is decision, in my opinion. He has 11 wins by decision throughout his career, his most common form of victory. And, dude, Stephen Thompson does not really get finished. Finished one time in his career. Like, he is tough. And I know the grappling, like that is where he struggles, but it's not like he's a

complete fish out of water and he just gets sub the second he gets taken down. Like, he can survive. and he has survived on the ground on numerous occasions. The thing I wanted to throw out to you, I don't know if he dug and found this stat himself or if he just is passing it along. This is courtesy of knockout bets on Twitter. I want to make sure I shout out who's throwing the stats out.

In 2023, when a fighter is 10 years younger than his opponent, 17 and 2. I didn't know what that. I didn't have the stat in front of me, but I remember seeing this somewhere a while ago that, like, yeah, historically, if you are 10 years younger than your opponent, it's like 80% or something insane. Let me take it a step further.

10 years younger and your opponent is 35 plus 13 and 1. 10 years younger and your opponent is 40 year older, Stephen Thompson 40, Michelle Pereira 29, 6 and 0 so far in 2023. Listen, I'm a number. But we are a scientific podcast. We are a scientific podcast. That's what we believe in on this platform.

You run the numbers. The numbers are there. The odds, we all know that. That's been struggling of late. I'm just saying, listen, I thought the line was off. I thought the decision line was off. I'm not going crazy. I'm like 1.1 units of exposure on Michelle Pereira.

But I think this is going to be a very close competitive fight. I know Wonderboy looked fantastic. against Kevin Holland, one of his best performances he's had in a long time. But I think this is going to be a close competitive fight. I'm going to trust, and I just have to laugh. I'm going to trust Michelle Pett. I'm going to trust Michel Pereira. Go for the grappling at least once in this fight.

The good thing about this bet, as I was trying to talk myself into it, after I already put it in. I absolutely cannot believe that we are not only both on Michel Pereira, but we also sprinkled on the decision as well. Yeah, because Pereira, here's the thing. I almost didn't bet Pereira and just bet decision because I don't think, because he's, like you said, Wonder Boy's been finished once. I was at that fight. It was insane because he was boxing Anthony Pettus's ears off until Pettus launched off the cage

and iced him. It was nuts. The man doesn't really get finished and he's really, really, really not going to get finished by Pereira doing like a, flying knee because Thompson stands so far away that any flying knee is going to be the most telegraphed motion in the history of combat. And so if Barrera comes out and is trying to do weird Capoeira stuff, I'm immediately going to feel bad.

But, oh, there's a dude. There's a world world. Just tackle him. Listen, man. Well, Muhammad, look, we think of Bala Muhammad and Gilbert Burns as like good grapplers. Statistically, they're pretty average wrestlers. They both are 35% on their. take down success rate.

Michelle Paheta is something extremely similar. Hold on, I'll pull it up right now. I'm sorry. Michelle Paheta is 55% on his takedown success rate. Like, it's, Stephen Thompson used to be a good defensive wrestler. I think as he's gotten older, that part

of his game has just fallen off some because he's a little slower. His reactions are maybe a little diminished and that's tough. All you got to do is tackle this man, Michelle. It's all we need. It's all we need, man. I mean, listen, you got to take down in the Andre Fialo fight. You got three takedowns in the Nico Price fight.

If you're going to take downs against Nico Price, I got to think that you might be like, I should also go to takedowns against a much more dangerous Stephen Thompson than against. There's such a massive body of work for Stephen Thompson. And it's just like, if you want to lose to Stephen Thompson, stand and strike with him for 15 minutes. Play, enjoy a long-range striking battle. Stay on as far outside as possible and just trade hands and see how that goes for you. And like the guys that do it against them, like, they get so thoroughly outstruck. Like, when he wins, when he gets these 15-minute striking affairs, Stephen Thompson, 171 significant strikes, Jeff Neal 85.

Stephen Thompson, 138 significant strikes, Vicente Lucke, 77. Stephen Thompson, 70, Jorge Mazvedo, 42. Like, Stephen Thompson 110, Roy McDonald's 61. Like, when he gets what he wants, these 15-minute decisions striking, he does what he wants. Like, that's where he has his most success. Michelle, I feel like after one round, we're going to know whether we're going to win this. Oh, yeah, a thousand percent. I can't wait.

I can't wait. It's going to be hilarious. This is the sweatiest thing I have the whole night, I think. This is the thing I'm the sweatiest about. If you tail this bet, know what you're getting into. Yeah. Know what you're getting into. Yeah.

And that's it. That's all I got to say on this fight. We can move on to maybe something sad. I'm ecstatic that you said that because, yeah, because it feels like everywhere I look, people are like, Wonderboy's going to Wonderboy and Michelle's going to gas and he has no fight IQ. Except all the people who are out there. They're calling for the Pereira Parlay, buddy. A Michelle Pereira by decision parlay with Alex Pereira by decision.

It's got to be an astronomical. Okay. Let's figure out what that number is. That's got to be like an astronaut. I know that's going against some bets that I have, but I might actually just still do that. I mean, just for the laughs. Hold on pulling it together right now and we will find because. On draft king's sports book right now.

That parlayed up on draft Kings is plus 27. I mean that the hilarity that would ensue. I'm going to put a dollar on that parlay. To win 27, not bad. Not bad. I put a dollar. Pay for a lunch with that. Pay for a lunch with that.

Yeah, let's keep it rolling. You said potentially something sad, lightweight out. Tony Ferguson taking on Bobby Green. Right now, Bobby Green, minus 410.

Stephen Thompson coming. Or not Stephen Thompson. Tony Ferguson coming back plus 310. himself. Yeah. Is Tony washed? Oh yeah. Tony's washed.

I've been thinking Tony Ferguson was washed for a while. And that's really the primary focus for me on the bet I'm going to make on this thing is Tony. One, fighting Justin Gagee just changes your career. A lot of people fought Justin Gagey haven't been the same

since. and you know the thing about tiny ferguson is still incredibly durable i mean it took nate ds till the fourth round to beat him uh michael chanler had to punt him in one of the most vicious strikes of the year to get him out of there but other than that uh this dude is still extremely durable and i will say that this is another fight where i'm giving at least a little bit of a factor to the elevation because tony ferguson historically great cardio this man can go for days Bobby Green is not a bad fighter in that regard, but like if there's a window for Tony Ferguson to win,

it's just putting on a high pace and hoping that Bobby Green breaks down under the elevation. I just don't think that that's going to be the case, though, man. Ferguson lost five in a row, and I didn't do a super deep dive because I didn't want to. I can only think of one fighter off the top of my head who lost five in a row and then rebounded to later score meaningful wins in their career.

You'll have fighters lose five in a row, get a win, and then lose a bunch more, retire, something like that. But the only one I can think of off the top of my head is Andrei Aloski, who lost five in a row and has since, you know, picked up meaningful wins at heavyweight after that. It is, once it's gone, it's gone. Bobby Green in the top 15 lightweight, but he is a top 25 lightweight. He's something in that neighborhood of a lightweight.

And that's just not who Tony Ferguson is. anymore. For me, the bet, though, I mean, that price is pretty baked in. And so for me, the bet is Bobby Green by decision at plus 120. Again, Tony Ferguson's still super durable. Ten of Green's 10 UFC wins, seven have come by the scorecards. I think this fight will be pretty fun because Ferguson's so durable. But I just think he's going to sort of get outboxed on the feet, not be able to implement his wrestling all that well and he's just he's just a little slower a little older the stuff I saw on embedded has me even more concerned

because he has all the sign he to me looks exactly like late career BJ Penn when every time you'd see BJ be like I'm back I'm feeling better than ever and it's just like you look older in the face and you the years have caught up to him I think he's totally washed and I'm on Bobby Green by decision yeah dude Dude, yeah. I mean, he's getting ready to turn 40 in a few months, five straight losses. I mean, the way he tapped out to Nate Diaz, like the insta tap, I just, I don't know, man, this is a game that isn't necessarily kind to the aging fighter. And Bobby Green, yeah, like you said, maybe he's not a top 15 lightweight, but like he can come out here. And in a lot of his fights, he weaponizes his volume. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if he's, he,

He's just putting it on Tony Ferguson. And, like, I mean, I know he got knocked out in the Drew Dober fight. I don't really see that happening here. But, like, he was, I mean, he was just, like, putting it on Drew Dover. Like, I had a Drew Dover better. He was dunking on Dover. Yeah, like, he was looking fantastic until he wasn't. The Jared Gordon thing was weird.

Islam, we knew what he was getting into. He was coming in on after fighting two weeks prior against the lightweight champion. Like, we knew what he was getting into. Like, I could see this being, like, the Nasra fight. where he like thoroughly out strikes Tony, wins 30, 27, and that's kind of that. But, yeah, that's all the thing is going to happen. I'm on Bobby Green. I've been on Bobby Green for like a month and a half.

I'm not going to lie. Palley piece? No, I took him at minus 210. Oh, wow, that number has moved. Like I said, I took him like a month and a half ago on Draft Kings. Like as soon as the fight got announced, obviously that it doesn't do much for people here, but I do things to sell a parley piece. And I like your decision bet.

You're getting that at plus money for a guy that wins mostly by decision. And Ferguson is durable. Like, he wins mostly by decision. He's minus 410, but his by decision prop is plus 120. That's just a huge delta between those two numbers. Yeah, I think that's the smart bet there. But yeah, going to be interesting. Don't really like love it.

I mean, if Ferguson wins, that'll be a great moment. If he wins, retire, Tony. Like, retire. And I don't think he will. I don't think he'll retire if he wins. But that would be a nice send-off. No, if he wins Tony Ferguson, Jim Miller, U.S.C. 300. Okay.

All right. And then they both retire together. Sure. I don't know if Jim Miller will ever retire. He might, after he does 300, he might be like, I can make four. I can make four. So, but I would, if Tony can win this, then Jim Miller, Tony, Ferguson, UFC 300, that's, that will be my new campaign. All right.

Let's keep it rolling. Walter Waite about Michael Keyesa taking on Kevin Holland right now. You can have Kevin Holland for minus 145, Keesa plus 125. Thought about Holland. I mean, I thought about Keesa. Like there is a path to victory here. Like he is, you can trust this man is going to go for takedowns. And Kevin Holland hasn't had the best time with takedowns.

But it's coming off a 20-month layoff. I don't really know where he's at in his career. and like he does have a capability to put himself in bad spots on the ground and get subbed. And Kevin Holland is a decent, decent grappler, man. Like he's got some submission wins on his record. I don't know. I just, I never got around to it. I did take the under two and a half.

I feel like there's multiple paths to get there. I know Keyes is pretty durable, but I think Kevin Holland has the potential to knock him out. And I do think if it goes to the ground, I think either dude is alive for a sub. I think it's going to be a fun fight, and I think someone's going to end up getting finished. I'm taking Keisa. For a lot of the reasons you sort of touched on there. The big concern for me is the two-year layoff, obviously. He hasn't won in much longer than that, but Keisa has, frankly, looked really good at Walterweight once he made the move on up.

And similar to the Stephen Thompson fight, there is a path to victory against Kevin Holland. It's a well-established. Everyone knows it. Kevin Holland is a below average defensive wrestler. Michael Keisa is a very, very sneaky quality grappler. I think, I don't feel like people ever talk enough about it, because it's one of the most amazing, like, statistical anomalies to me. This man submitted Benile Darius, who is Binal Darius.

And I think more people now recognize, like, how good a grappler Binal Darius is. but for for kiesa to just sort of dummy him like he did was nuts and like that's that's just a huge feather in the cap and against the guy like kevin holland who you know says he's worked on his defensive wrestling and it's still just out here giving up takedowns like that's just still sort of what happens when he's fighting i mean hamzat ran right on over him like it was nothing hell tim mean scored takedowns on this man so uh i think keesac i can do it. Yes, the long layoff certainly gives me a bit of pause, but I'm choosing to believe that this stylistic matchup is simply good enough for Keesa here, and he'll come back, back strong off this almost two-year layoff. Yeah, I don't think it's bad, bad, man. Thought about it, like I said, thought about it, but never got around to it. Don't mind that as a dog play. Let's keep it rolling on to the prelims welterweight bout. Officer Trevin Giles, taking on Gabriel Bonfeme, the other Bonfam brother, getting back at it after his Schmet.

suffered defeat just a few weeks ago right now. Gabriel minus 320 Trevin Giles plus 2.65. I'm using fight doesn't go as a parlay piece. I think Bonfam has it covered here. 14 wins. 14 finishes. Trevin Giles finished in all four of his losses. I think Bonfam is going to come in here, whether it's knockout, whether it's a mission. I think he is going to win by finish. I also have Bonfem as a parlay piece That's that's from a little multi-week parlay that started last week He's finishing it hopefully

He's the last leg, but yeah I think Bodfam comes in here and finishes Trevor Jones I I flirted briefly with Bonfeme by submission But it's only like plus 110 But you look at his resume I mean just the man has Like a 10 10 11 wins by sub As you noted when you noted when

When Giles loses, he gets finished, I think, doesn't go is a good solid parley piece. But I actually don't have any parleyes this week. I'm Sons parley this week. So as I was doing it, I just, I mostly just bet a bunch of underdogs this week. I just have a ton of underdog action. I love it. I don't have any parley pieces. Love it.

Let's keep it. That's it. Let's keep it rolling. Now that we're on the prelims, I mean, we're almost already at an hour. So let's get moving. Heavyweight bow, Derek Lewis, taking on Marcos. Rogerio da Lima right now you can have the Lima line is getting steamed to oblivion for minus 215 Derek Lewis plus 185 how do you feel about the heavyweight over in this one money has

been coming in on the over people are starting to hear about it because I got this at plus 180 it's already dropped a plus 160 on draft Kings go so you know get a little bit juice there which is nice. Look, this is going to be sweaty because Derek Lewis has not historically been super kind to heavyweight overs. He's not an ofer. He's not a Tommy Aspinall who is an enemy of the heavyweight overstate. He goes longer than I feel like people give him credit for. He does, but he also, particularly lately, has not been hitting this over one and a half number. I mean, Cyril Gaon was the last one. And before that, it was,

a long time. He has not gone long lately. And similarly, Marco Sergio de Lima is, is pretty tough. Pretty tough for the heavyweight over contingent, certainly. But again, he has a couple. Most recently, he cashed a heavyweight over in the Waldo Cortez-A-Costa fight,

which I felt great about. So he has that in his game. To me, there's going to be, that's what makes it the most electric bet. That first round is going to be. be potentially devastating. But a couple of factors in play here. One, last time we're in Utah,

seven to 12 fights went to a decision. The main event went to the fifth round. A lot of overs happen at high elevation, particularly on the prelims and lower cards. Guys aren't out there prepared. Everybody gets real tired. I think that that gives us an elevated, pun intended opportunity for this fight,

thank you, for this fight to be a heavyweighty, heavyweight fight, where they just get real gas and start, you know, lumbering very early in. The other one, the other kind of big thing for me in the heavyweight over is RDL is actually super tough. He's only been knocked out once in his career. It was a long time ago. Like a decade ago.

Yes, Derek Lewis is Derek Lewis. He can put the lunchboxes on anybody and it won't, can't shock you. But RDL has largely not been beaten that way. He's getting, he's getting taken down. He's getting subbed. By the same token, RD. you know can maybe score takedowns use some you some BJJ but Derek Lewis he's got that backyard barbecue BJJ he just stands up out of trouble so I think there's a world here

and maybe even a maybe even the most likely outcome is that first round is a bit back and forth neither man can get their hand raised and then they're too tired to do anything so feel okay about the heavy weight over and I'm also I decided why not overexposed myself Connor why not just put a lot of action down. Why not? I added two more bets on top of it. One, I'm taking Derek Lewis at the underdog odds. Okay.

Similar to the tiering that I mentioned at the top of the thing. Marco Sergio Delima has always been in my head a lower tier heavyweight than Derek Lewis. Derek Lewis on a tough run lately, you know, lost three and they've been tough. he also lost to Sergei Spivak who is ascending, Sergei Pavlovich, who is maybe the best heavyweight in the world, and tied to Ivasa,

your guy, who he was winning the fight until he lost the fight. I think that those are kind of explicable. The last guy who is clearly on a lower tier than him that he fought,

Chris Dawkus, he obliterated it in one round. And so I think that RDL is on a separate tier. I'm getting a plus 185 number on Lewis and taking it. And, because I'm a D-Gen.

I couldn't talk myself out of it. I'm a bring back round three, Derek Lewis. There was a period of time where round three Derek Lewis was a guy. I haven't made the bet because the bet is not available anywhere to me, but round three,

K.O. Derek Lewis, I'm just a little, you know, a tenth of a unit, just a sprinkle to feel alive. Because like I said, I think we're going to get the over here. And as they both get really tired, mythical round three,

Derek Lewis will return to Salt Lake City. Round three, Derek Lewis, plus 3,000 is what I'm looking at right here. I love that. Love that number. I'm just a little sprinkling, not a big number. Round three, Derek Lewis, plus 3,000. Love that. Is that just round three, or is that K-O? This is round three, Derek Lewis. What's K-O? This book that I'm looking at does not have a bet 365. We're going, I mean, it's not like he's going to sub RDS, so I doubt the number's going to be very different. I'm going to get you a price right now on that round three Derek Lewis

K-O yeah I don't know I don't know I I'm on the under two and a half as a parley piece I really just think Roger the Lima is just going to kind of bring the fight to Derek Lewis and and with the leg kicks potentially go for takedowns you mentioned

he's tough he can also crack and I just think it's just going to get to a point where they're swinging and banging and someone is going to go down Derek Lewis well, this different book has Derek Lewis round 3k-o at plus 2,200, so you'd be better off taking that. It's just round 3 plus 3,000.

Yeah, I just feel like this is, I feel like this is going to end early, and I feel like it's going to be Marcus Ruggiero de Lima. Maybe Derek Lewis still has something in them. I mean, you mentioned it. The guys that he's losing to are elite at the heavyweight division, and Marcus Ruggiero de Lima maybe not be in that category. The other thing is,

Ruggiero de Lima, if you put Derek Lewis against Waldo Cortez Acosta and Andger Alovsky, I would also like his chances to win those fights. Star-starching them, no doubt. As opposed to going to decision with WCA and submitting Arlofsky. Also not going to, I'm not going to lie on Marcos Ruggles. This is another line. I mean, this happens with pay-per-view that has been steamed to the heavens. I mean, it opened at even odds, minus 110 each way. Even odds feels correct, honestly.

Yeah, like I felt pretty good about DeLima at that point. But now at this current line, man, I mean, there's some books minus 250, minus 250 against Derek Lewis. Yeah, that's, that's why I'm on Dennis Lewis. That's why I'm on Derek Lewis. I like almost want to just like bet Derek Lewis just to get the buyback. But I'll stick with RDA. I mean, can lock in a win with a Derek Lewis. I could lock in a win, but that feels that feels cheap just because I like.

I give out the picks and everything, and it's just like a... Bird in the hand. Burned in the bush, as they say. Yeah, I mean, I'm on, I'm on Marcos, but it's just like, if he ends up getting flatlined, I'm going to be like, well, that's what you get from betting against Terglois. That's the thing that can happen with Terse Cloos. All right, let's keep it rolling. Middleweight bout Roman copy loft taken on Claudio Ravario.

Right now, Copilov, pretty big favorite. kind of surprising how big minus 2.25, Roberto coming back plus 190. Yeah, I'm not on any side here, but I am on fight doesn't go to a decision. We're almost done. I have a nickname for this. It's kind of the middle of the card.

I'm going to call it the Violence Valley. That's what I'm going with here. I'm on a lot of unders. I think this is when the fight that should have been stopped 26 times, but ends up going to the scorecards is going to happen, and I'm pulling my hair out.

I think that's going to be the heavy way. fight. It's really going to be right. They are both going to be really close to finishing and then it's going to really heavy weight down the stretch. It could. I love how we're on like exact opposite ends of that fight. Like you're going long Derek Lewis and I'm going short Marcos Ruggiero the Lima. We probably split the middle in the worst way possible. Yeah, uh, clash of heads no contest in round two. Sign me up for that. Exactly. But I am on fight doesn't go to a decision. Ribero is wild. Dude. He comes in and just chucks him. Coppilov is tough, so I think if, like, if Roberto can't get him out of there early,

I think Copilov will wear on him and eventually get the fight finished. They have 26 professional fights between them, 23 of them have knock on to a decision. Copilov isn't really the one-hitter quitter finisher. He's more of the wear on you, get you to the ground, submit you, or TKO you. But I think it's Rivera early or Copilov as the fight goes on. I think someone's going to get finished there. I got, this is, I think this is the first fight I have no action. Oh, no, Gabriel Bonfima didn't have any. But yeah, no action. No, no real thoughts on it.

Sweet, because that means we can just keep right on rolling to a welterweight bout. Jake Matthews taking on U.S.C. debut tant. Darius Flowers on very short notice, about 10 days noticed for Darius. Right now, you can have Jake Matthews, who at one point we thought was the next Muhammad Ali minus 240. Flowers coming back plus 200. enamored after that Andre Fialo fight. He hooked me. Hook line and sink. They're right into a loss too, Matthew Semelsberger. Who's now lower on the card. Which is crazy. I am on the under here.

This is my last violence bet. Like I said, the Violence Valley. You just got to kind of know. Real ones know Violence Valley in Salt Lake City, Utah. Listen, man. This is an interesting fight. Jake Matthews, don't really know which Jake Matthews we're going to get. If we get the rolling flow in Jake Matthews, this is going to be a bad night for Darius Flowers.

Darius Flowers is also 10 days notice, UFC debutante, and this dude is the definition of Killer Be Killed. Started his 18-fight career, three straight decisions. It's kind of looked like a decision maker from the jump. Since then, one decision across 15 fights, including 10 first round stoppages, a few of those he's lost. By the way, don't know if you knew this. Darius Flowers, also a boxer. One in 10 as a boxer. Knocked out.

But he's got that experience. Knocked out seven times. The man is killer be killed. He comes in here to either finish the fight or get finished. I think he's especially on this short notice. I think he's going to come in. He's going to go wild for the finish. And if he doesn't get it, he's going to do gas bad.

And Jake Matthews is going to be able to finish him. Jake Matthews is equipped on the ground. He can get submissions and Darius Flowers. The way he loses fights is by getting submitted. So Darius Flowers very early or Jake Matthews late first round, early second round. I see this one ending early. Got the under two and a half. Biggest play on the card for me, actually.

biggest play on the card for you. Yeah, under two and a half. I really, I mean, dude, I think it's Darius Flowers coming in here, going wild for a finish, or Jake Matthews finishing him shortly after. Well, I mean, I agree with half of that. I actually think this is a by-low moment for Jake Matthews. I do think that we're going to get the finish. I've got Matthews inside the distance, minus 1-15.

I just, I think that, like I said, I think it's a by-low moment. We've got a very short-notice replacement, a guy who is susceptible to getting finished. Yes, Jake Matthews, like, he hooked me. He hooked me. But Matthew Simmel's burger is, I just think, a better fighter than what I've seen from Darius Flowers. And I think that there's just a lot of people who are coming into this with the same reactions of, oh, I bet Matthews and got burned. Now I don't know if I can trust him.

I feel like we can trust them in this spot. Well, I'd be looking like an asshole come Sunday. Maybe. But I think we're getting a better price on them than we probably should be given the circumstances. So it inside the distance of almost even money, I took it. I don't blame you one bit. Darius Flowers, actually, according to box wrecks, suspended by the Nevada Athletic Commission indefinitely for boxing bouts. Almost looks like he's throwing these things.

Five straight losses by knockout. I mean, got to pay the bills somehow. Against debuting fighters, too. Hmm. Do we think that that, does that sound like a man with possible throwing of fights? Do we want him in the UFC? That seems like, it's an interesting choice. To get a little deeper on Darius Flowers talking about throwing fights, he was scheduled

to fight, the legendary Jay Ellis, back in 2019, but the bout never came. to fruition. What an opportunity that could have been for all of us. And he was going to get Jay Ellis when he was a ripe 15 and 88, not his 16 and 100 and 8 now. Prime J. Ellis at that point. Prime. Prime J. Ellis. He was back in the gauge in March. Good stuff.

Got choked out in 38 seconds. Shout out. Shout out to the legend. Legend J. Ellis. Real ones know. Like, that's actually like if you come up to me and you tell me you know Jay Ellis, we're friends at that point we're friends

we should get shirts the legend jellis shirts for a movie we should just get like the like 90s retro design like sick like hype up the fighter shirt but it's jellis yes

I'm sorry if we can even find high definition enough pictures of jellis no you don't want the high definition yeah like NBA jam but with all of the metrics is just zero yeah or it's a shirt

and it's like a concert tour shirt. Oh, a concert tour shirt for Jalus is spectacular. But it's every one of his fights. And so the print is like four point font because he has 124 professional fights. Oh, what a fantastic idea. And he lost 108 of them.

But still, still, people, don't forget. Early in his career. At Gerald Mearschart went. That guy goes to bars every time Gerald Mearschart fights. Like last time he fought, uh, Joe. Piper. Joe Piper finished him in the first round. J. Ellis was somewhere like, I know that feeling. I understand.

Me and Joe Pfefer cut from the same cloth. All right, let's keep it moving. Just a couple more fights to get into. Flyweight bouts, CJ Evergarov, Anisha, Salvador. I have nothing on this fight. Don't try and talk me into an under because I am the crux of flyweight unders now. Yeah, float unders. I'm glad we abandoned them because this one scares me anyway.

If I take them, they lose. If I don't, they win. It's just a bad thing. So bet it. We won't be betting it, but you should bet it because since we're not betting, it's going to win. Honestly, yeah. Someone was like, can you stop betting them?

So they'll start going under again. And I was like, wow, of the mighty have fallen. I am the man that birthed this. I am the father of Flyweight Unders. I am the founder of it. They've turned on you. And now I'm the jinx for it. Like, get a life.

Get out of you, man. Let's keep it rolling, though. Welterweight out. Matthew Simmelzberger, taking on Uros. Medish on short notice. Short notice for Eros here. Should be a decent fight right now. Semmelsberger, another fight getting steamed heavy. A lot of people seem to be on Semmelsberger. 205, Medish coming back plus 175. I am on Semmelsberger, but not his money line. I took his K-O prop plus 225. I just think this fight is going to be super hectic.

Oruos in his career, never been past eight minutes. He's fighting at elevation on 10 days. has noticed up a weight class. Probably the more technical striker, but don't love his chances here with everything going on surrounding it. I think they're going to come in here and throw Medici. I mean, we've seen Semmelzberger struggle when people go for takedowns.

Medeish is not that guy. He is not going to do that. I think they're going to come in here and throw. And if you look at Simmelzberger, Rieson's fight, six knockdowns in his last three fights. The dude knocks people down, has two knockouts as well, nine knockdowns in his eight fight career. I think he is very live for a knockdown here. I think it's going to be a crazy fight, and I think Simmelzberger can get his hand raised via knockout.

I am so, so happy that you're on Simmel's Burger because this is my last bet of the card. Oh, yeah. And it makes it better that you're on Simmel's burger because you clearly just aren't factoring in the most important factor because I'm on Eros Medici. and what you failed to take into account. I can't believe you failed to take it into account. Tell me. It's Shark Week. Yes, he's not fighting Alex Marano, the Great White, as he did previously.

But he still has to come into Shark Week, knowing what happened to him. He is carrying the damage of Shark Week. You think when you get attacked by a Great White, you go back out into the ocean, you're like, everything's okay? No. Simulzberger is going to be haunted by the memory of the Great White. and it's going to give Aros Medici exactly the boost he needs.

It may be ridiculous, but I sure bet it. This is absolutely ridiculous. I mean, like, the find of all finds last year was Alex Marano fighting on Shark Week. It was an unbelievable choice from you. Absolutely. Now we're going to say Semmelzberger is haunted. I think he's been sitting in his hotel room

watching Discovery Channel the entire week and being like, it's get back time. It's get back time. I think he's going to have flashbacks to the last Shark Week and what went wrong for him. Ours Medici is coming in here. I also think that they're like very evenly matched fighters in general. I do think Medici is the better technical striker.

The short notice gives me some pause, but you're getting a big price for two guys who I think are about the same tier level of fighter. So I also, that's primarily the reason, but the memories of Shark Week, they never leave us, Connor. I actually it's funny that you say that we we have that was your last bet final bet I have nothing on marina maverick priscilla cachewara maverick should bounce back but catcherara is like uh she's an enigma i don't know she could knock her out who really knows what i did one of ever it's too difficult to be like definitely going to go to decision because like half the time she doesn't so it's yeah yeah i'm not i'll just i'll just chill uh anything on belator horizon I do not have anything on Bellator Rise and also, one, we just got a surprise fight that just got added to that.

And two, we've lost like the- I was going to say, we didn't get a surprise fight added. We lost AJ McKee. We also did get a surprise fight added. Patricio Pitbull is now fighting. Oh, great. I forget who I can pull it up, but yeah. Yeah, I forgot AJ's fighting Patricke. Yeah, exactly.

AJ is fighting Patrici, and Patricio is fighting somebody and I will. find this in just a moment. So what I wanted to throw out to you, I know this is an MMA podcast, but pretty big boxing bout going down this weekend. A little bit of a boxing bout. Also had a pretty big boxing bout happened just yesterday. Oh, God, don't get me started. Like, I could write, I could wax poetic on, in a way, for hours.

I mean, that was, oh, that was such a beautiful performance. Like I had in a way minus 250. I went pretty heavy on them. Never. Never in doubt. I was sipping my morning coffee. I was like, well, those winnings will be hitting my account whenever this old thing wraps up. Because like, I mean, it took like round three.

I was like, this is a winner. Like, this was the easiest bet I ever took. Earl Spence Jr. taking out Terrence Crawford. Now, I know technically Earl Spence Jr.'s. Junior's nickname is the truth. I think that's what a lot of people call him. Another thing he goes by rocking a shirt this week, Big Fish, and then he lifts up his shirt, gets a little bit more into it.

He's warning of a shark attack on Terrence Crawford this weekend. He is actually tattooed with a giant. shark all over his belly button naval era. Now, when it comes to the fight itself, it's very similar to the main event at UFC 291. If you tell me you have any confidence on either guy in this boxing match, I'm really just going to say that you're biased at that point. I mean, these dudes are the cream of the crop.

They are the best of the best. Like, as soon as I started convincing myself one way, I was convincing myself the other way. So why not leave it up to fate? Why not leave it up to the signs that are being put right in front of me? On this, as you mentioned, Shark Week, Big Fish, Earl Spence, tatted to the gills. Wow. Look at we are just full of them today. We're nailing the puns this week.

It feels like a sign to me. Feels like a sign. Just as the Great White came down from the heavens in Alex Marono, plus money Alex Morono we now are handed plus money Euro spends I'm just saying I've been watching the Discovery Channel

sharks are pretty vicious they're pretty vicious creatures I'm just saying I love this because it means we get to book in this episode expertly you're taking this man I'm taking Bud Crawford because I like Bud

for the exact same reasons you took DP Can't argue that I just I love Bud I love Bud. I love watching Bud fight. I don't feel the same way about Harold Spence. Is an amazing fighter. Not here to say anything different.

He absolutely can win. This fight is, I mean, electric day of combat on Saturday. We got this, we got Poye and Gae. What more could you ask for in the world of combat sports? But I'm just always like Bud Crawford. And that's how we're going to rock it. So I'm on him, and we have symmetry from the start to the finish of this episode. I mean, this man has, he's selling shirts that say strap season swim at your own risk.

I mean, I'm not going to lie, I don't know the complete tie of the shark thing, but like, Big fish. Big fish, right, but like. What is a shark other than a big fish? Yeah, I guess technically. Just a big fish. And then, you know, Terrence Crawford posted a photo like an illustration of him as Aquaman, and stabbing a shark with a trident.

This feels very reminiscent. It's covered from Omaha. I don't feel like you can be Aquaman from Omaha. This feels very reminiscent to last year. You were on Sammy the Jetty against our guy, against Alex Marono. And now here we go again. I'm just trying to show you the signs. The signs.

You know, we'll see how it goes. If so, the next year's shark week, we will find more signs. And I'll believe a big fit. It's lobbed up right to us. It's Shark Week. The guy's fighting on Shark Week. He's got shark tattoos all over him. He's warning of a shark attack.

The powers. Earl Spence should be a minus 500 at that point. I mean, come up. No, it should be a fantastic fight. I'm not kidding. I'm not kidding if you say you're confident in either direction. I will call bias because it is going to be such a close to sick fight. Can't wait for it.

Going to be a fun one. That is that. 291, Salt Lake City. Spencer Spence Crawford Great fight Next week That's it

Next week is UFC Nashville We keep right on rolling I mean what are we gonna end up doing Like 14 straight weeks Yeah it's something like that I might go to Nashville I haven't decided yet

Probably not going Easy trip up It is easy but There's so much Next week's Diaz Paul So there's just so much other stuff going on Probably not Next week is Diaz Paul

So we started June 3rd. Now we're going 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. I think it's 12 weeks. Oh my gosh. And then 9, 10, 11, 12, 12, 13, 14, 14, 15, 15, 16 straight weeks.

It's the summer run, baby. Just cruising our way into September. Yep, here we are just doing an NFL season worth of UFC breakdowns. You know, we love to do it. We love you all. And that's it, baby. Hell yeah. If you made it this far, we really do love you.

So September 23rd is likely going to be the first week off. But I'll be electric. I don't know who UG is playing that week. We should go to the game. Yeah, that's a smart move. I'm going to go off to Pluto on MMA for sure that weekend. I'm very much looking forward to it. I'm going to act like it doesn't even exist.

But until then, we will be back next week with UFC National. Bill, new main event, Corey Sanhagen, Rob Fonk, can't wait. See you then. Love y'all. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.