MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Will Ilia Topuria beat Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 to become 10th double champ?

Episode Date: June 25, 2025

International Fight Week is upon us. The biggest week of the year for MMA goes down this week as the UFC brings its Hall of Fame ceremony and a monster pay-per-view to Las Vegas. Featuring two titles fights, UFC 317 is the hallmark event of the summer and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Action Network's Billy Ward to dive into UFC 317. Topics discussed include Ilia Topuria's chances to become the 10th two-division champion in UFC history, Charles Oliveira's chance to stop him, the flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Kara-France, Joshua Van's big step up against Brandon Royval, the various live dogs on the card, the sad end to Billy's climb and the continuation of Jed's, and more. Tune in for episode 131 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠ Follow Billy Ward: ⁠⁠@PsychoWard586⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard. My name is Jedmishu. I am your host, and it's a good week, ladies and gentlemen, because UFC 317 is upon us. But before we get that, we've got a little bit of discussion to get to, because this week's guest is a man after my own heart, a fellow climber. And last week, ladies and gentlemen, he took a fall. I'm speaking of course about our friend Billy Ward from the Action Network.

And Billy, first, thanks for coming on to talk through all of this terrible sadness. But second, how are we doing after USC Baku? Yeah, it's tough. I feel like I sacrificed the climb for one of my best weeks gambling in a long time. Everything else went pretty well. I had a bet on the main event to not go to a decision. We had Jamal Hill limping around on one leg after the second round. I thought we'd be fine.

Both guys let off the gas. Yeah, that was the first non-money line I had taken on the climb. So let that be a lesson, to me at least. I know you've done well on some totals and fights to go to a decision or not go to a decision. But it did not work out for me. Not sure that I'm going to get right back on the ladder. But as you and I have discussed previously, it's too much fun. It is too enthralling to say that I'm going to swear off the climb forever.

I mean it's it's just the best time you can have as far as I'm concerned out there and the worst well and I you know I've yet to make a big fall like you have uh I am just an update 19 steps down I did not climb at UFC Baku mainly because I was not watching the event live and I want to be watching had I I was looking at the Usman abdel Wahab over and that would have cashed quite easily so we could be many steps further along but if you were out there if you fell like billy did if you want to get back on the horse i've got to climb and frankly they're like five that i would feel at least some level of decent about so you could just fast track you could do a five-leg parlay to climb and just just launch yourself up the mountain get a quick start for your next iteration

uh otherwise you see baku i had actually a good week up two and a half units still down on the year to 10 overall, but that's not factored in the climb with the climb. I'm having at least a successful year until, until I'm not. But, Billy, let's get into this week because UC 317 International Fight Week, Hall of Fame's on Thursday, Monster Paperview coming down the pipe on Saturday, the main event, Ilya Taborio versus Charles Oliver for the vacant lightweight belt, the co-main, Alejandro Pantoja, taking on Kai Cair France for the flyway title, title fights, a bunch of other just rip-roaring good action going down this Saturday.

But we start as always at the top. Ilya, Charles Olivera. I got a lot of thoughts on this fight. In general, I read your Action Network early looks. I don't remember what it's called or luck prediction article. And I know you have some as well. Tell me, how are you feeling about the main event on Saturday? Yeah, I mean, as many people have discussed, it's not the best fight.

could have done with Ilyotopuria. Like there's, there were other options out there. I get him going up to 155. It did seem like a miserable weight cut. I see what we're doing here. And he should, he should come out and beat Charles Oliver.

Oliver is past that age curve. We talk about his, you know, been two and two over his last four technically. But this is kind of a disrespectful line on Charles. We tried to start recording this yesterday, but my power went out and it's moved even a little bit further since then. You can get Charles as high as plus 360 here.

I could see, you know, Chuckie Olive's doing the classic thing. He uses height and reach to keep him away. As soon as Topuria gets in and clips him, Olivera does his little play in Possum and goes to his back. And he's got a shot to submit anyone on the ground, but certainly earlier Topuria. The only people we've really seen beat Olivera in the last, I don't know,

decade plus are elite level wrestlers, which Topuria isn't. He can hit real hard. He's a good grappler, but he's not Armin Sorokin. He's not Islam Makachev. And watching the Sarukkin fight back, you could even make a case that Olivera deserve to win that. I wouldn't say that myself, but there's certainly a case to be made there. So given that we're getting better than three and a half to one odds here, I'm going to have a sprinkle on Charles Olivera.

I was looking at a submission prop, but it's really not that great. You know, the market has that as his most likely win condition, so probably staying away from that. But plus 350, plus 360, I'm one of the greatest lightweights ever, against a former featherweight who got dropped in his only appearance at lightweight. Feels like a pretty good value spot. Yeah, the odds currently, Ilya, around a minus four, oh, I'm sorry, money came in overnight. We started this yesterday. Now up to minus 500 in a lot of spots,

plus 360 comeback on Charles Olivera. And I just think these odds are quite insane, frankly. I know that everybody is very high on Elliott Tupuria, and it won't shock me if he wins this fight. He's a really good fighter, Charles Oliver. definitely a little long in the tooth. And I suspect Ilya will hurt him, right?

Like Charles gets hit. Ilya can obviously hurt most people. I think we'll, you know, we've seen very briefly his power translate up. Jai Herbert, not Charles O'Levara, but I do think it will translate fine. My concern is, will Ilya go to the ground after he hurts him? Because a lot of fighters don't. I think he should. But if, you know, maybe Charles should just tie him up and we're

cover and if he doesn't and he lets Charles keep recovering, that's the math problem that let Charles Oliver have the level of success he had. If he gets a 10 count and you don't get one, ask Justin Gagee how that goes. It's really, really bad. The other thing that is two other big factors that are concerning me about this fight for Ilya to Poria. One, he's not big, man. Like, and I don't understand how people don't think about this more because there is such a panic in this sport about missing weight and be like oh huge advantage for that guy he came in two pounds overweight oh like weight classes exist for a reason and just look at all the photos coming out of villi teporia there's one that dropped this morning of him standing with kai kara france he ain't that

much bigger than kai kai kara france like he's bigger than him he's not that like the the one that really sent me is like raoul rosa's junior the bantam weight there's like demonstrably bigger than Ilya. I don't doubt that Ilya had a hard weight cut. I do doubt that it needed to be hard. Like in the same way that like Jose Aldo, his whole career was like

it kills me to get to 1.45 and then suddenly he just like got a little more disciplined and could drop to 135. Ilya, he can win this fight. I don't know that he's going to like run through the lightweight division purely from a size

standpoint. 5-7 is not a very big lightweight and there are some quite large ones out there and the other thing that really concerns me is just like he doesn't seem to be taking Charles Olivera serious at all

and that could be bluster like that absolutely could just be him talking because he does this right but like he is a hundred percent carrying himself like oh I'm gonna knock out thing and then I'm gonna go up to Welterway and like man you you can't be fucking about with Charles Olivera

Charles Oliver is a bad man And so I think this price is Quite high for a featherweight Going against one of the greatest lightweights of all time Like a man who we've never seen at lightweight Maybe he translates beautifully and he runs right through Charles And that'll be hell of impressive if he does I think this fight is

You know way more competitive than people are giving I have a half unit down on Charles at plus 350 And also Billy This is the crucial one for me. This is what we're climbing with. We're climbing with the main event. Fight does not go to a decision minus 575. So a little high on the price point, but not too bad.

You know, Charles Olivera has gone to the cards twice. I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm sorry, I'm a decision twice in his eight UFC fights. None of those are five-rounders. No, I'm sorry, one of those was five-rounder. and Olivera has gone three times in his past 10. Oliver famously the greatest finisher in UFC history. I don't think this fight is going to the cards, right? Like either Tuporia cracks him and finishes him or Tuporia cracks him doesn't finish him.

Olavera gets up. Tuporia does it again. Eventually Olavera cracks him and finishes him because we have seen Tuporia get hurt. Like he can be hurt. If Jai Herbert can hurt you, Charles Oliver can kill you. So I think this isn't going to the cards, and I'm going, does not go to decision for my climb this week. I like that in theory, but you're really twisting the knife to go with the main event that obviously shouldn't go to a decision, to not go to a decision after that was what just knocked me off my ladder last week. So I am with you.

I am deeply concerned for you, given how it went for me, because looking at Jamal Hill and Khalil Roundtree not to go to a decision seemed equally logical. again, I am with you. I will be so nervous for you at, you know, 1.30 a.m. on very early Sunday morning, our time, as that's going on. It'll be an electric experience if we're heading into the fifth round and I'll just be, I'll be beside myself.

But it's one of those where if this is what drags me down the mountain, I feel good about it. So, and that at this point of the climb, that's all I'm looking for. I'm looking for a way that when I die, I at least feel there's some dignity in it. And frankly, I looked at a lot of other options. I'll go through them as we get in here because I considered even doing multiple steps.

And maybe you'll talk me into it. Maybe you'll feel something I say. And I'll be like, you know what? Let's double up. Let's see what happens. Real quick, before we move on, just to your point about missing weight and the advantages that confers, you know, having missed weight myself and fought guys that missed weight, there's two different kinds of weight misses.

There's what Mukta Bech-Orelby did last week where he's like, I'm not even going to try. average, you can do this at higher weight class. You can have as much money as you need. That is a huge advantage, especially if your opponent has been cutting weight and depleting themselves. The guys who really try to make it, like Alivaa in that Gaichi fight and then missed by a quarter pound, but you're super dehydrated and busting your ass. I think that's a disadvantage because you were going right up to that last minute,

really sucking yourself dry. That is totally different. So, you know, not that I expect either of these guys to miss weight, but I don't think it's as black and white as missing weight equals an advantage or disadvantage. If that makes sense? Yeah. And I would broadly agree. The weight point is more the weight classes matter.

Right. Yeah, that too. And Ilya is a featherweight and not an especially big featherweight. But we'll see. Like I am, this is the fight I wanted the whole time. I know everybody wanted Tuporia versus Mokchev. I didn't. This was the fight I wanted because I think Ilya can win, but I also think you can

definitely lose. And this will tell me a lot about his lightweight potential here. I'm glad we finally got it, even if it wasn't a roundabout way. Now we can move on to the co-main event of the evening. Alexandre Panth, the UFC flyweight champion, taking on Kai Kare of France in his, I don't know, 17th title defense. He's stacking him, racking him right now. Pantosia, your betting favorite mine is 260. The comeback on Kikara France plus 215. Actually, let me check those. That was from yesterday. Odds look actually about the same. Not a lot of movement on this one. Pantoja 7 fight win streak coming off that technical submission of a Kai-Khaer, sorry, Kai Asakura back in December, Kai Kara France, one and two in his

past three, was on a two-fight losing streak, but TKO'd Steve Urseg in August and is sort of getting this title fight because there aren't other options, which is not technically true, as there's another flyway fight on this card. There could have been another option. But it is what it is. Pants going for his millionth title defense. Billy, how are we feeling about the co-main event? Yeah, I'm seeing it the same way you are.

I think I put in my luck ratings that, you know, this wasn't the most deserving flyweight contender. We have a lot of guys who are like a couple fights away at flyweight, you know, some really exciting young contenders, but we just don't want to burn him yet. So we're doing this. Pantoja has defeated the brand. He's 5-0 against Roy Val and Moreno.

Now he's making his way through the Kais. He is 2-0 coming into this fight against UFC-level Kyes because he beat Kai Kera-France on the Ultimate Fighter, I don't know, 10 years ago, 8 years ago, something like that. This is technically, I guess technically not a rematch because those are exhibitions, but a rematch of sorts. I'm fine with laying the juice on Pantogia here. Seems like stylistically a bad matchup for Kai Kare-France.

You know, big hitter, but once you wrestle him, that tends to be a struggle. His wrestling defense has gotten better. I just don't think it's got Pantosia defense level better, right? Like Pantosia's a whole different animal. Great win over Steve Ersig. Happy for him. Actually, really like Kai KeraFrancy.

He's fun. He's exciting. But Pantosia might be the most dominant champion we have right now. And I don't think that changes. So I'm happy to lay the minus 250. And considering just jumping right back in on the climb at a minus 250, cover almost two steps at once. build some momentum on Pantosia.

The other option is, since we got next week off, you know, let the climb marinate for a couple weeks before I get back in. So we'll see. Maybe you'll talk me into it if you're as confident in pants as I am. I'm not, I am confident in pants. I'm actually just passing on a straight bet here. I do think Kai Kara France has improved a little bit, certainly the wrestling defense. And, you know, Kai hits real hard.

Pants is super durable. and so I just think this math is bad. But I can also see this being sort of the banana peel, right? Like, oh, this is the title fight we're not really even thinking about because it shouldn't even happen. Right. Like, this is the one legitimately. Kikeira-France was gifted in a title fight because nobody else is there. And this is at least feels new.

Like, Brandon Royval deserves it, even though no one is interested in that because we thought not that long ago. And Minel Kopp, frankly, should have been in this spot. But then he pulled out anyway. it is what it is. I think he's going to win, but maybe he just doesn't pay attention. Maybe he is overlooking KKF a little bit here. If KKF can keep this standing, his odds go

dramatically up, and I do think he has improved in that regard. So I just think the price is fairly lined. Maybe there's a little bit of value on Pantosia, but nothing to take a shot out at this price. What I'm looking at is the alternate overs here, because this was also a strong consideration for me for the climb.

You know, they haven't dropped yet onshore, but the offshore has the over one and a half at minus 425. And I feel like this fight's going to go long because I do think Kyker France is going to have a lot of success early in stuffing takedowns. As the fight goes on, as pants mixes his striking and his grappling, that'll go a lot worse for him. But I think in the first round, he's probably going to keep, he's going to be selling out to keep this thing on his feet.

and so Pantoja extremely durable and I don't think he'll finish Kai on the feet but so I like that instead I'm throwing that basically in a would-be-the-climb parlay is what I'm tentatively naming it four legs that I'm like these were all in consideration and instead we're just going to tie them together for a little parley this is the first leg

the over one and a half I don't have it built yet because I don't have access to the over one and a half yet, but it will come. Billy, anything left to say on the co-mainer, or should we get to the feature bout of the evening? No, I think the feature bout might actually be more compelling.

I mean, you can't make it a co-main. It's not a title fight, but I'm good to move on. So that feature about that could be more compelling, and frankly, I might agree, though I do have some issues with it.

Another flyweight contest, Brandon Roy Val, taking on Joshua Van. Roy Val, the money has, moved around on this fight quite a bit. Royval now an outright underdog plus 100, just about anywhere you go.

Whereas the van, your betting favorite, minus 120. Royval, two fight win streaks since lost the pants, post-split decisions, one over Brandon Moreno in the Battle of the Brandons, one over Tetsuru, Tyra. That was the most recent one in October. Absolutely ludicrous that that was a split decision. No one alive

other than, I forget which judge scored it for Tyra, believes that was a split decision. Van, four, fight windstreet since that loss of Charles Johnson. T-Ked Bruno Silva just earlier this month. Quick turnaround on short notice. As I mentioned, Mano Kopp was originally supposed to be here fighting Brandon Raveau in a no doubt about it, number one contender fight. Cop gets injured. Van steps in on very short notice and steps in as the betting favorite, Billy. Talk to me about this one because I agree. This is a great matchup.

Yeah, real quick, I did look it up, you know, full disclosure, but I didn't have to look it up. We all know it was Sal Diomano that... Of course it was. Let's see. What's the dissenting judge in that one, like that one. I looked because I didn't want to sound stupid, but I was pretty confident, even without. Yeah, this is what I put in my notes that if Van had like a full camp for this and hadn't just fought three weeks ago, I'd be willing to make a pretty large wager on him, especially at his previous price when I wrote that down.

As it is, I'm just a little bit worried that the veteran's going to have some tricks for him, being a little bit better shape, or a little bit better conditioned. I don't know exactly when Van got the news of this fight, right? Like, was he out of camp for a couple days, had some time to party, hang out, whatever? Or did they tell him in the locker room, you know, Saturday night three weeks ago? That kind of changes the equation a little bit. The only thing I'm confident in right now is this is the first three-round fight for Roy Val in quite a long time, which probably means he starts pretty slow.

We've seen that in fighters that they're kind of on that five-round pace, and they take the first round a little bit easy, probably means a pretty good first round for Josh Van. I could see a live spot on Roy Val if that price balloons after the first round. If Van, you know, pieces them up, clearly wins the round, but doesn't hurt him too bad, then Roy Val thinks, oh shit, I got to get going. Like, I've only got two more. So that's something I'm interested in.

Need a big price on that for it to really be worth it, like better than two to one. Otherwise, from a pre-fight perspective, I do like Josh Van here. I just wish he had a full camp for it. I'm going the opposite way here. I am on Brandon Royval. Once he got the plus money, I was like, yep, we're definitely doing this. There are, I have a million concerns about what's happening here. I really like Josh Van.

I have said on many different podcasts. I think Josh Fan is probably a future champion in this weight class, still super young. And I like broad, like big picture, how he's going about his career. Take a lesson if you're somebody like Bo Nicol. If you're young and you're learning, you should fight all the time. Josh Fan has been super, super active. This is probably a little too active, right? one month turnaround and

I mean a little bit of disrespect there to Bruno Silva. Bruno Silva ain't Brandon Royval right? Like these are not the same. Brandon Royval like I just think deserves to be like a real betting favorite here based on what he has

accomplished in the sport versus what Josh Van may accomplish in the future and it does not feel like that's being priced in. Royval full camp, full prep time. Van I know he was in camp like you said. I don't really know the circumstances of accepting this fight. I'm also just would be concerned anyway that he's a little overtrained at this point

because he has fought four times in the last like eight months or something insane. Like that's just, it's a pace that is really, really hard to keep up. And again, massive leap in competition here. If Josh Van can make this purely a striking contest, he's got quick hands, great boxing, you know, like this can get fun. but I think Brandon Royval is going to get shot out of a cannon in this one. The exact opposite of you, because this is only a three-rounder instead of a five, he's not going to be, I need to sort of keep the pace here.

He's going to come out like old Brandon Royval balls to the wall. Maybe that ends up being bad. Maybe he gets jawed early, but I just don't think so. I think Brennan Reval has a lot of veteran savvy, and I think we're going to see some wily tricks here. So I'm on Royval straight up. I am also looking at the over one and a half alternate total in this one as well. Again, another climb consideration.

Just both of these men, Royval, five for 10 in the UFC, but he has hit three in a row of the over one and a halfs. Van, all eight of his UFC fights have gone past the one and a half minute mark. Right now, the offshores have that around a minus 435. I suspect that that line won't move terribly by the time it drops. I really like the price in general. again, considered it as a climb, but we've tied it with that and two other legs in the almost

climb parley. And looking forward to it. Honestly, do wish it was five rounds because like very, very possibly is establishing your next title challenger for Alhundred Pentosham fights like that, in my opinion, should always be five rounders. But going to be a really,

really good feature about to get us moving into the title fights on Saturday. We got to pick up the pace here. You're having a wonderful time, but we're three fights in, and we got a lot to cover. The next is a lightweight contest, and a good one at that. Again, really rock-solid main car we got coming on here. But Neil Daryush, taking on Hinato Morcano. Daryush, your underdog right now, though the money has come in on him.

He is very slight, plus 100 in a lot of spots. Minus 120 now, the line for Hanato Morcano in most places. Darryush two-fight losing streak, which is nobody's favorite thing. And Moycano was on a four-fight win streak before stepping in against Islam-Machachev in January on a day's notice when Armand-Sirukin pulled out and getting summarily demolished by the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world and probably the greatest lightweight of all time. Billy, how are we feeling about this feature lightweight bout on the main card? Yeah, really like Derrush here.

I got him at like Plus 120. early in the week. If you didn't get him now before it moves even further. It's pretty simple here. Moikano loses to people he can't out grapple. His last loss before Makachev was Rafael Dosanos, took him down. Dosanos got five takedowns in that fight. All of his other wins, he's either gotten a takedown or a submission.

And he's probably not going to out grapple the much bigger and stronger Benny Derayush, who was like an ADCC-level Nogi competitor. Darius loses the guys who can knock him out. with one punch. That has been both of his losses. I think even before that, yeah, his last loss before his win streak was Alexander Hernandez knocking him out in one punch. Moikano can do damage over time. He's not a big one-shot guy who's going to put you out like that. I think stylistically, this could not be any better for Derruch. I bet him the first time they made this fight at an even better price. I'm betting him again. I can't say it any more clearly than that. I think this is a great

pick. I am on the exact same boat as you. I got Binnie Derrush at plus 120. earlier this week. It won't stun me if Moikano beats him. Darius is on a two fights kid. Chin's not quite what it was. Maybe money just pops him one and Benny can't recover.

But basically the deck same breakdown. I think Daryush is just a better grappler and that's a huge, huge factor in this one. I'll also just add because every time Binaldairous fights I think of this anecdote from the late Jordan Breen. Shout out Jordan Breen rest in peace.

He told the story about being at King's MMA and seeing Benile Darius rolling with Fabrice Over Doom, world champion BGAJ practitioner, one of the greatest heavyweights ever, Fabrice Over Doom, and giving Fabrice Over Doom pointers about some technique they were going over. It's like, oh, yeah, Benadir Euse can teach Fabrice Over Doom how to grapple. He's probably not going to have too much of an issue with Anato Moe Ocano. And so, Benile Darius plus 120, feel great.

about the bet. I think he's a very live dog. And I understand why the money has come in on him. I don't think the money's coming back on money. So I don't think you're getting a better price. You should jump at this one now. And that takes us to the opening main card fight of the evening. A bantamweight contest, Peyton Talbot getting back on the horse, this time against Felipe Lima. Lima, reasonably decent sized betting favorite right now. Minus 200, minus 205 in spots. The comeback on Talbot, 170. Talbot coming off that unanimous decision lost to Howney Barcellus in January. One of the biggest upsets in the history of MMA from a betting line's perspective. I think it's third all time. Prior to that was 3 and O in the UFC and was a super prospect. Everyone was super hype on. Lima, 2 and 0 in the

promotion coming off unanimous decision win over Miles John in December, dropping to 135 pounds for the first time in the UFC. Billy, how are we feeling about, I mean, boy, I love this fight. I love this but how are you feeling about the odds here? Yeah, very excited about the fight. I do think Lima was almost exclusively a bantamate before coming to the UFC. He just fought off. Right. So I'm not too worried about that one.

It feels like just without looking too deep into it, this is just too big of a price adjustment for Peyton Talbot. Like, yes, he looked bad in that fight, but this is a guy who was a minus 1,000 favorite in like multiple fights coming into this. And now he's plus 160. So that is surprising to me. I don't know that that's enough for me to bet him just based on that. But, like, this is still the same Peyton Talbot that we thought was just going to wreck everyone in this division.

I don't think Lima is going to be able to do that Hiani Barcello's game plan. If you watch back the tape of Lima's takedowns, especially the one he got on Naimov. It was almost by accident. Like, he wasn't looking for takedown. Nymo forced to clinch. Lima hit a sick slide-by and just ended up right on his back and choked him out. But that still relied on his opponent initiating the grappling, which I don't think he's going to get.

Talbot, please, don't initiate the grappling. That did not go well for you last time. Very fun fight, especially if it stays on the feet. Both guys are very aggressive. I like Peyton Talbot's counter striking. Like, that's probably his best ability is just his natural reaction time and reading of angles in the pocket, which should help him against Lima. If I had to pick a money-line side, especially at the price now, it would be Talbot.

But actually, like, the under two and a half at plus 145. If it gets to the ground, I think Lima will be much more aggressive hunting finishes than Barsellos was. And if it stays standing, these two guys can both crack. They're both really good strikers. Someone probably finds the button in the first 12-and-a-half minutes. So that is the bet I am for sure making the under 2.5 plus 1.45, about half a unit. If the line goes any further towards Lima,

I might be forced into a money line play on Talbot for half a unit as well. I doubt the line moves further, though I'm surprised it moved as far as it did. I'm on Talbot. I think that this is a wild over-correction from the markets at this point. I don't, like, I know that the Barcellus loss was like, okay, we got a little too hyped here.

But Felipe Lima, not, I mean, great fighter, like honestly, really, really good prospect in his own right, but he is not like a baked in understands all the composite parts of his game in the same way that a guy like County Barcellus, who's a super veteran, does. And mainly, I just think Talbot's going to have learned a lot, right? Like, and I, like, there's a little bit of projection here. I don't think he's going to initiate grappling exchanges.

I think he will have worked pretty focused on making sure the fight stays on the feet and he can get back to his feet. And on there, Lima is certainly a very talented striker in his own right. I think Talbot's got a little more craft, a little more style, and just this fight should be competitive. And so plus 170 is just a big price on a dude who I still think is incredibly talented and is only scratching the surface. of what he can go on to accomplish. And I don't... The matchup is great. It is a little weird to me

that they are putting Peyton Talbot in a fight that he, like, absolutely can lose when this is a guy, you should probably be trying to build up a little more. But, you know, maybe he just shortcuts it all. And he's like, all right, I'm going to beat Felipe Lima, hype back on. So I like Peyton Talbot.

I got him a plus 170, and I, you know, I feel good about it. That is my concern about this card overall, though, Bill. I feel great about a lot of underdogs or like that I'm getting a good price. Maybe not that all of them are going to win. And that's how suddenly you can at the end of the night be down five units and while still feeling like you got your money on a decent side every time. And that's just not, that's just not the gambling experience you're hoping for.

It's like, oh, Peyton Talbot lost a split decision. Obviously I had my money on the right side. Still lost the unit. Like I could see that coming for me on Saturday. hopefully not. Hopefully I cash all these underdogs. And we move on to an underdog that I'm interested to see how you feel about it because it's Jack Hermanson taking on Gregory Robocop Rodriguez in the prelim main event, a middleweight contest.

Hermanson, the underdog this time around, as you might expect, around plus 180, the comeback on Robocop, minus 2.10-ish. Hermanson, 3 and 2 over the last 5 in the promotion. Coming off, the unanimous decision, win over Joe, Piper, the derailing of a hype train. Robocot got his opportunity to vault up the middleweight ranks against Jared Cannonier in a main event, failed, got knocked out back in February. Now he's still getting another crack at the rankings, though, in Jack Hermanson.

How are you feeling about this middleweight matchup, Billy? Yeah, don't, not super excited about this fight, just, you know, middleweighty, middleweight buddy, it's Robocop. How are you not excited about Robocop? it just we've got the the hobo cop experience at this point right like i feel like we know it's gonna but it's always fun it's always a good time it is but jacker manson has the ability to make any fight not fun like that is probably his superpower which is what i don't like about this one you mentioned three and two in his last five his last five has been like it's taken him like a decade to do those last five

he's fought once in the last three years which i hate for a guy who is now 37 you know like the just the longer those gaps get, the more likely it is that you've completely fallen off the age curve when we get on that side of things. Robocop looked good until he didn't against cannoneer, which is also just his fighting style. He swings really aggressively. He grapples real hard when he grapples.

He should grapple more, because frankly he's probably better at that than striking, because he's a guy is just a glass cannon on the feet. I don't think Kermanson has a way to really hurt him on the feet. He could certainly outpoint him standing. And I think Obocop's the better grappler. I also think he's likely to fade. So my betting angle here is Hobocop inside the distance at plus money.

I don't, I think if it goes to, if you told me ahead of time it goes to a decision, I'd feel reasonably confident that Hermanson found a way to win that decision. If you tell me it ends inside the distance, Gregor Rodriguez, probably the better side there. Haven't seen the like decision only or finish only lines yet. My guess is Rodriguez finish only props are going to be like minus 500 and just stay away from those. but plus money to get the finish, I think is fairly reasonable and then could look at Hermanson live if he survives the patented Robocop, a couple of knockdowns early.

This is one of those underdogs that I don't believe in. I'm just straight up for a lot of the reasons you pointed out. I like Robocop a lot. I think Robocop has flaws. And if this were a five-round fight, I would think Jack Remanson is very, very live. It's a three-round fight. As you mentioned, he's having a lot of success against Jared Kennedy here before. is he basically just stone gassed out and was a sitting duck that's probably not going to happen over 15 minutes right like he might be second wind in the back part of the third round but i think he's going to clearly win the first two if he doesn't get a finish i do think he's a better grappler i don't like how inactive hermanson has been a great performance against joe pifer but like also it wasn't joe pifer just didn't have any ideas after he was getting jabbed he's like oh

I don't know what to do. This guy's jabbing and kicking my legs. He didn't die when I punched him in the head. Everybody else dies when I punched him in the head. It's the only game I have. Gregory Rodriguez, he's got a few more options than Joe Piper does. And I think he can get the finish, but mostly I think he can build an insurmountable lead.

And it's not like Jack Armanson is a huge threat to storm back and get a finish in the third round here. So I got him earlier in the week, minus 200 straight up. like the price feel good about Robocop kidding it done and you know cracking into the top 15 which is probably a spot he does belong in it middleweight at this point in time moving on to a featherweight contest hider amel taking on Jose delgado umil the under both of these men i believe our contender series prospects amiel your under all ground plus 150 to come back on Delgado around minus 170 180

Meal, 3 and O in the UFC. I did not think much of him as a contender series prospect, but he has started off his UFC career quite well. Split decision went over William Go Me in March. Valid split decision went over William Go Me in March. Competitive fight. Don't think the scorecards are ridiculous. Delgado, 1-0 in the promotion,

knocked out Connor Matthews back in February in his debut. For the record, he did not wow me on Contender Series either. Billy, this matchup of Contender Series guys, how are you feeling about it? Yeah, I had the same feelings on both guys coming off the Contender series. And then part of it, I was a little bit surprised. They both got fairly favorable UFC matchups, especially in their debut. Because Emil fought, Bernie Garcia, Delgado got Connor Matthews. Some of these guys that don't do great on the Contender series,

they just get thrown into some ridiculous mismatch in their first one. It's kind of the UFC's way of saying, like, yeah, we don't really think you're that great, but we'll give you $10,000 to build somebody else up a couple times. Not the case for these guys. They seem excited in both of them. Click their tapology page. They almost look like the same dude with the pictures they have there, and they fight fairly similarly as well.

I like the over, the over two and a half is plus money. Even goes to a decision a little bit better. Plus money. I think both guys are fairly durable. Neither of them have ever taken a ton of damage. They can both crack, but I kind of see it as one of these where we've got guys with decent striking defense who are going to respect each other's power.

And then Emil can get some take. down so he likes to mix them in there which will slow things down a little bit take a little bit of the heat off it I would not be surprised if this one turns into we got a couple big moments on the feet but then it slows down for three or four minutes you know somebody lands a big punch but then we're stuck against the fence for the next two giving time to recover so I'm torn between the over two and a half and it goes to a decision but I kind of see this one going long but I have a huge issue with what you've said uh if you just look at their like I'm looking on topology at their matchup they look the same in the way that like Shrek looks the same as human Shrek. These are not like Hyder Amiel has a chiseled jaw line. Joseo Delgado looks like the middle brother who is just clearly not the handsome one of the family. Absolutely ludicrous take from you. And as a result, I'm backing Hyder Amiel.

I do think these men actually, I agree with a lot of the other parts you said. I think they fight very similarly. This fight could get a little wonky. I think the odds should be closer in general. And while I was not impressed with either man on Continuous Series, I do think Hider Emile is, my concerns with Hider were largely that he's older, right? Like, he's not really a prospect.

He's 35. And so, like, how, what are you going to do in a featherweight division when you're already 35? But he is pretty athletic, much more athletic than Jose Delgado. And I think Delgado maybe has a slightly more refined game, but I'll pick athleticism and a guy who is, he's always going to like be giving it his best effort the man is is you know you can build a career out of having some natural athleticism and just a willingness to fucking scrap and

hyder amiel seems to be doing it and so at an underdog price i figured why not let's have some fun not a bet i would like recommend to other people but i figured screw it we're we're out here we're going to be watching this fight might as well have a little action on it and that takes us to where does that take us to oh that takes us to the women's flyweight division as viviani arrujo takes on tracy cortez are both of these women ranked let me check that out i didn't actually look to see if these women are ranked because i don't do my job yes they are i didn't know if cortez was ranked because i don't have a lot of great wins got a lot of them but not a lot of great ones. Arrucho, your betting underdog the money on Arrucho right now, plus 205, come back on

Cortez, minus 250, depending on where you're looking. Arrucho, two and three over a past five unanimous decision went over Karini Silva in November her last time out. Cortez was on a four-fight win streak before running into Rosamama Unis in July and dropping a unanimous decision there. Decently wide odds here. How do you feel about that, Bill? Yeah, Cortez should win this. I mean, the decision against Rose, she took on, like, three days notice in Colorado at elevation in a five-round fight, had to, like, cut half her hair off to even make weight, was clearly going through it.

That does not downgrade Tracy Cortez for me at all, especially because she was competitive in that fight. I think she won the first round, if I remember correctly, or she had some moments somewhere in there where it was like, oh, she might steal. No, it wasn't the first because Rose dropped her, but had some moments in that fight. Cortez should win this fight. I'm not really interested in laying minus 250 on this.

I'm also not going to bet the underdog, who is a 38-year-old who's been somewhat inactive and seems to be on the downslope of her career, has looked, you know, her wins have been against lower-level competition, by and large. No disrespect to Karini Silva, but outside of that.

So, yeah, I'm passing on this one. Not a ton of interest. Probably goes to a decision is, you know, the over two and a half is minus 720, so you couldn't even climb that. So I got nothing. Totally understandable. I have no straight up action on this. I think, like, you could convince me in a world that maybe there's value on a Rousseau

because I do think this can be competitive. But she's 38. So that's a no. I just a no for me. I think that line is probably lined correctly here. What I am interested in, and this was probably the closest climb that I had, the over two and a half, minus 600. All six of Tracy Cortez's UFC fights have gone to a decision, and Arrucho got a stoppage in her first

UFC fight and has been 11 in a row that have gone to the cards. It is statistically negligible that this won't go to the cards. You never know. Maybe the 38-year-old just stops being durable. I would be a little bit baffled if this doesn't. Honestly, this would be a great climb piece. I haven't looked today to see if the over is viable, is still at minus 600 here.

A little bit more money's coming in on that now. It's around minus 700 in spots. So still think that'd be fine. But minus 600 for the over two and a half, I will just be flabbergasted if that one doesn't hit. So Bob's your uncle, we're moving on. Lightweight division for another fight that I have a very confident position on

Terence McKinney taking on Vachislav Borshev aka Slava Claus McKinney your betting favorite around minus 180 depending on where you're looking

the comeback on Slava Claus plus 154 Billy I have one very clear bet on this fight do you have any bets on this fight I do I guess it's a conditional bet because it is a live bet um every

Terrence McKinney fight, the correct angle is just a live bet on whoever Terrence McKinney is fighting. He has never won a fight in the UFC that has gone more than two minutes and 17 seconds. That is the longest win for Terrence McKinney. He has two second round losses, one late

in the first, and he also is capable of losing fast, but he is not capable of winning anything other than quickly. Usually comes out and drops a guy or almost gets him a submission and then just totally gases out, which gives you a much better price on Slava Clause, It's difficult, though, because usually it's like live bet on a guy after the first round.

This one, you've got to jump in the middle of the round to even really have the shot on it. But if you see Slava Claus go from plus 150 or so, he is now up to plus 300 because he gets cracked, go ahead and sprinkle on that. From a pre-fight angle, I actually do like Slava Claus here. I think he's pretty unkillable, pretty durable. And if McKinney doesn't start you right away, he doesn't really have a plan B. So plus 150, plus 160 on Borchav. going into the fight is fine.

I just think we'll be able to do much, much better in the live markets if you got a quick finger on that. Yeah, when Terrence McKinney fights, you bet the under. That's just the rule. That's the thing you do. He has never seen the third round in his UFC career. He can grapple, so maybe he makes it to the second round because he just tackles Slava, who can't defensively wrestle save his life.

But if he doesn't finish Slava, and as you pointed, Slavid very durable himself, then he's just going to get got. Either way, this fight's not going into the third round. And so the under two and a half, minus 600, again, part of the could have been the climb, parlay we got going here. Actually, it's minus 550. I think it's come up a little bit. By the time I was looking at it was minus 550.

Just a fight, if all of those things would have been fine climbs for me, put them all together, you're going to get about a plus 110 payout, uh, depending on when you can get them. So easy. I mean, yeah, and yes, absolutely. If Terrence McKinney wins the first round, you should 100% live bet Slava, uh, because that's just good money right there. That's, that's making cash. We moved to the early prelims, three fights left to discuss and, uh, they're the

worst ones on the card, but it is what it is. Uh, Janata Denise taking on Alvin Hines in a heavyweight contest, uh, Denise, your betting favorite right now. The money around minus 305. The comeback on Heinz plus 245. Denise, former Goy kickboxer, contender series, two and one in the promotion, was on a two-fight winning streak,

and then got T-KOed by Marcine Tibera in November. Heinz, 7-0 in making his UFC debut, I think, from LFA, but I don't have that right in front of me right now. Billy, did you even look into this one much? I did. I looked into it a little bit. Gooser, as they call Alvin Hines, seems like a fun dude.

He has a tattoo of his union's crest on his shoulder and is very active in like some structural engineers union or whatever in his hometown. Like still doing that, kind of just fighting on the side for fun. I cannot find, and I didn't look super hard, but I can't find any information on if he was a wrestler. He is a big jacked ball dude from Minnesota, which strongly indicates that he probably did some wrestling

before transitioning to MMA. If he has any kind of high-level wrestling and he's plus 250 against a kickboxer in Janata to knees, I might take a little sprinkle just for fun here. Like, how do you not root for Gooser getting his UFC call-out for like no reason as a big underdog against a guy who, by all right, should kill him? This is not financial advice.

This is, wouldn't that be fun? And I'd like to have a little bit of action on as many of these fights as possible. And I like having an excuse to say Gooser as much as possible. So you put all that together. Little Sprinkle at plus 250. If anyone can confirm for me, my DMs are open. If you have wrestled him, seen him wrestle, please let me know. That's all I want to hear.

I love everything that you said there because I didn't know of other, you know, I'm on Heinz, just straight up. I got on Alvin Hines. One, I could not find video of him fighting. Like, there's so little of it. And so this is not like, I'm betting him. Like, there's a clip of him head kicking a dude in his last fight. and it looks terrible. But, and then, like, if you go check his Instagram,

uh, you see that like he clearly, he has done competitive jujitsu, like that, that is his, his entry point into the sport is jujitsu. Have no idea whether he wrestled or not, absolutely could. Um, but legitimately like, the fact that he can do jujitsu is just like, all right, just tackle him. You'll probably, like, you can, you can beat you're not in these, we just tackle him. Uh, but two, the thing that really got me over, I myself, Bill, I'm a union man. And as a union man who just went through a union struggle, I stay union strong.

And as I was going through his Instagram, it's just like, he has so many photos on his Instagram with him holding up his union operating engineers local 49. Like they're just him like with a flag. Like, yeah, thing. And it's because it's all like here's the union reposting him to support his upcoming fight. this man rocks I want nothing but great things for him he'll probably get milkshake duct and say something just horrible

on like after he wins or some shit I don't know but I always support fellow union people and his name is Goose like his Instagram name is Goosey Heinz is just everything about this dude is like yes I

I want to be attached to him and so plus 245 my favorite bet of the week Not because it's good because I'm going to have the most fun with it. Goose forever. Let's go. Apologize to, apologies to Alvin Hines there.

I was saying Gooser when it is in fact, Goosey. So that was right. I looked it up right when you started talking like, damn it. But we will come to know the name Goosey, I'm sure. We will come to fear the name Goosey Heinz. Like he has his branded hat.

Like it's like it's just it's a fist with goose on the knuckles. God, I hope he has a tattoo with goose on his own knuckles. It would just be the best. Like this guy, this guy is a very silly goose, and I'm a huge, huge fan of him already, having literally never seen him find. We move on to the welterweight division. Nico Price taking on Jacoby Smith.

Jacobi Smith, if not the one of the biggest betting favorites in the history of the sport, depending on where you're looking. Let me look at where it's moved today. All right, at least didn't move much overnight. minus 1600. The comeback on price plus 900. Price two and three over his last five. Lost you, Timba Garimbo in October.

Smith, contender series guy, a very highly touted guy off contender series. I really liked him off this most recent season. One his first fight in the promotion and now getting certainly a little more name recognition, but a guy he's supposed to kill, Billy Will he kill him? Yeah, almost certainly. I mean, this is an Oklahoma State wrestler, trained with Cormier. Three-time All-American.

Three-time All-American. Yeah, this is a guy we can confirm he has wrestled. You can find pictures of him in a singlet. We know for sure. The only real interesting thing to talk about is if this is the longest line. While you were talking, I looked, Cesar's has Jacoby Smith as long as minus 2,500. Yeah.

When we say the biggest betting favorite in UFC history, I don't exactly know how people track that. Like, do they mean the consensus odds at close? the biggest point it gets to at any one moment, just the biggest any one book, because he could probably find a book somewhere that's longer. But it's usually closed. I don't know whether it's just the biggest one it closed.

You know what I'm saying? Like whoever, whatever major book has the biggest line, because he's got a real shot to challenge for that. I think one of Bo Nichols fights closed at like minus 2,300, minus 2,400 against Val Woodburn was probably the current record. So ahead of that now, we'll see if that holds, I don't know how you bet this, like Jacobi Smith in round one,

or do we think this is kind of a mansur-a-deal-Malik spot from last week where he wins cleanly but doesn't get a finish? I don't know. I'm just here to watch Nico Price get demolished, unfortunately, because I like Nico Price well enough, but that's what's going to happen. Great DFS play. If you can find a salary for Jacobi Smith, you should absolutely have him in all of your DFS lineups.

That's where my interest will be this week. Yeah, I mean, he's got to be wildly expensive than that. If Price pulls off the upset, it will mathematically be the biggest upset in UFC history. Actually, maybe MMA history, but certainly in UFC history. He's not going to pull off the upset. I was super on Jacobi Smith. I compt him to John Jones. Not that he's John Jones, but that there's some John Jones to him.

He's going to clobber him. And you want to know how you bet it? Here's how you bet it. Despite the odds being as gigantic as they are, I'm not entirely sure why this is the case, but if you go down and you look at the Smith by K.O., it's only minus 300. Maybe that's moved a little bit from yesterday when I took this,

but like, if Nico Price dies when he dies, like when he loses, he mostly gets knocked out, and Jacobi Smith swings a big hammer, and if he's this massive, like, do you think he's going to UD, Nikko? He's not going to UD him. He's not going to tap him. He's going to kill him.

So, like, why is that price only minus 300 versus a minus 1,600, you know, line for Jacoby Smith? I genuinely just don't know, like, of his eight losses, five of them are TCOs for price. Like, it just seems really evident eight knockout wins for Jacoby. I don't, like, that number seemed insane to me from a value perspective. And so I just, I took it, snatched it up. put put a couple of units on it instead of just the one i get it but anytime you're laying three to one on a specific method of victory it makes it makes me feel icky because like a club and sub is a possibility here especially for a wrestler that's what worries me i agree with you

odds of this hitting the judges are extremely low but man three to one on one method of victory is very very tough if he clubbing subs him for his first career submission then then you got me but my like i i look at this as oh i'm getting jacoboby Smith at minus 300 instead of minus 1600. And that's a big gap. That's a big bonus to get that. So and then the last five of the evening

frankly, we don't really need to talk about it because it happened overnight. It is Jackson McVeigh versus Christopher Ewert. Ewert, I don't know. It's supposed to be Sajigiduma. Can't, Sajiru Duma is out. Can't confirm this at the

time, though there appear to be real there are reports that seem to be or could be valid, that the reason Dumas had to pull out is he can't get the ankle monitor off until Thursday, which is not a valid timeline for him because the UFC was going to book this man who has been arrested eight billion times to fight. I didn't really want to talk about this fight when Sudjurki Dumas was competing. I certainly, I just don't know anything about Jackson McVeigh,

and I truly could not tell you a single thing about Ewert. So I got nothing on this bill. if you have something to tell the people, please do. Yeah, we don't even have betting lines up now. It was fortunate for us that we ended up pushing our recording back because we didn't talk about that. If McVeigh is like a narrow favorite, or God forbid, even an underdog, I might bet him.

I like what I saw from him on tape, lower level competition, so big grain of salt. The only thing I really have to add is I have seen so many guys fight in, you know, Hooters parking lots with taped up ankle monitors. The guys these days just aren't built like we used to be Jed. Like this is not, an ankle monitor was never a deterrent for the crappy amateur MMA in Barnes that I used to do. So I have no idea why that's letting them stop them. Put a little ankle, like a soft ankle band over it, tape that thing down. Tell him he's not allowed to kick with that leg and let's go.

Of a 100% seen that happen before. And also famously at the Dan Hooker 60 second fight thing held, one dude was fighting with an ankle monitor on like, I don't think the UFC wants to do that. But it's because they're soft, as you point out. Before we get out of here, Bill, just very briefly, PFL's semifinals are, I think that's Friday night, maybe that's tomorrow. I don't really remember when the hell they are. Anything that caught your eye there,

because I will just quickly run down a couple of things that I don't hate from that card. No, go for it. I haven't looked at that at all. I probably will, but it seems to be Friday night. I believe you're correct. I think it's Friday night. They have been supposed to be Friday night.

They have been doing Thursdays though, right? They have, but I think it's Friday at literally at 10, 30 p.m. is the main card start because they're psychopaths and they don't want people to watch their product. Fabian Edwards in your main event taking on Josh, um, Silveria. Fabian Edwards is a big betting favorite. Wouldn't hate him as a parley piece. Probably going to win that fight. Phil Davis, not a huge betting favorite against Sullivan Colley, minus 260, which I think is probably maybe a little bit of value on Phil. Sergio Betiserofian Stats is actually a really good fight. Stats, your betting favorite minus 170.

I think there's real value on Pettis as an underdog there. Dalton Most Aaron Jeffrey, whatever. Simeon Powell, Antonio Carlos Jr., maybe some value on Shoeface, probably not. Valentin Moldovsky, Alexander Romanov. As a car carrying member of the Alexander Romanov, maybe he could be good. I'm ready to give up that he might could be good. He'll just never be good. And Moldowski's also never good.

So maybe that's fun for heavyweight. weights. Another massive betting favorite is Biaggio Ali Walsh keeps doing whatever he's doing, minus like 12 billion against a guy named Ronnie Gibbs. Oleg Popov, taking on Rodrigo Nassiminto.

I actually like Popov here, minus 225. I don't think Nassiminto is that good. I think Popov is not actually a bad heavyweight. So honestly, a decent little PFL card. I might put together some sort of parlay just for funsies on Friday night. But other than

that that's UFC 317 in the books and as you mentioned at the top of the show bill got a week off after this one uh we will have a a nice little break before we head to Nashville Tennessee for uh Derek Lewis versus talison to Shera because that's that's the kind of fight night main card you get these days uh most importantly for us in a may fighting next week season two of our uh fantasy draft we're wrapping season season Season one this Saturday, it is a two-horse race between Alexander K. Lee and E. Casey Liden, and we will redraft next week for the second, or I guess technically season three of it. But other than that, that's what we've got going on. Bill, what are you got going on?

Yeah, busy week this week, over at Action Network, we're going to have every main card fight covered with an individual breakdown podcast with my more calcified bets, DFS content, and yeah, then I'm very happy to get a week off from podcast. combat sports coverage. It'll be nice. You know, we can enjoy the fourth. Just vibe out. It'll be terrific.

Billy, thanks for coming on. Thanks for sharing your tale of woe. We hope to see you back on the mountain side. You know, we hope to look down as we continue scaling it. And we see you chasing us up the mountain. I hope everything goes great for you this weekend as well. And we will talk to you soon. Thanks to all of you for listening.

Love y'all.