MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Islam Makhachev and Umar Nurmagomedov Leave UFC 311 As Champions?

Episode Date: January 15, 2025

The first Pay-Per-View event of 2025 is here! This Saturday in Inglewood, Calif., UFC 311 goes down, headlined by a pair of title fights in the best divisions in MMA. In the co-main event, Merab Dvalishvili puts his bantamweight belt on the line against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov, and then in the main event, pound-for-pound No. 1 Islam Makhachev defends his lightweight title in a rematch with Arman Tsarukyan. All that caps off an electric night of fights and No Bets Barred is here to break everything down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Action Network's Billy Ward to dive into all things UFC 311. Topics discussed include Tsarukyan's chances at pulling off the upset, how Dvalishvili can retain his 135 title, differing opinions on the light heavyweight bout between Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, the latest update on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 114 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Billy Ward: @Psychoward586 Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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To the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Bet's Bar. and it is a good one. I know that not all of the episodes, frankly, can be great because not all of the cards can be great, but that is not our issue this week as the UFC is in full swing for the year 2025.

We are coming off U.C. Vegas 101, and now we are in to the big one. One of the better pay-per-views we have gotten over the past eight months. UFC 311 goes down this Saturday. At this point in time, still taking place in Englewood. It seems like that will be. We'll even hold true despite what's going on out in L.A. right now.

But joining me to talk about this wonderful card and maybe even do a little brief recap on the first event of the year that just transpired. You know him, you love him. He is the Action Network's Billy Ward. Billy, thanks for coming back on and you're welcome. I chose to be a gentleman and not hold your horrific loss over you for this and invite you back for a good card, buddy. Yeah, for those that don't remember, it was the result of Randy Brown's last fight before the end of the year was to determine my fate here. But Jed's going with the who should have won, not who the judges said won. Kind of a rough card, I believe we both were on Volkov for that card as well, in one of the more clear robberies I thought of the year.

And if I look back, that fight actually swung me from a profit to a loss on that card. So that one, an especially annoying card for judging for me, so I'm glad you at least extended the olive branch and didn't dig in any deeper. You know, it was a tough card. Volkov was the determining factor between me having a winning and losing weekend, and so that was tough. And I, you know, why not? I wanted to get somebody back on to talk 311 because this card is very, very good. But before we dive into 311, just a very brief recap of the first event of 2025, U.C. Vegas 101.

A new era of the apex has begun and we are in it. And in that new era, McKinsey Dern picks up a third round submission win over Amanda Hebos, paying off a bet. I have, Billy, I have been a long believer in McKinsey Dern. Even now, and I kind of don't believe in her, I'm still just kind of, I'm sticking to my guns. And this time it paid off. I was up a very, very small amount. But most importantly, the thing that the most people are here for, Billy, the climb continues seven steps down, 23 to go as we try and change. 30 bets together.

We are now at a climb bankroll of $450, which will be going down on one specific bet this weekend. And Billy, I may even loop you in to help me determine our next climb combatant for UFC 311. Because I've got a couple that I would be comfortable with using. So how did you do at Vegas 101? How did you kick off your 2025? Yeah, not great. I had another losing night that I'm going to blame to a split decision because Nicole

Caliari getting the nod in one of the first fights of the night would have tipped me over. So slight loss otherwise, I was on Amanda Hebes. I thought I was going to get a better price, got greedy and took the bad price, paid for it. Funny you should mention the climb, though. I have joined the climb on my own side. I'm doing my own edition of it just for fun. And I took Jacoby Smith for step one of the climb. Mine is a 2025 climb.

It's one shot. If I lose it, it's over forever. So I am one step in. I'm not doing this start-off. over if it goes wrong thing. It's it's one one climb to rule them all. I love that the climb is gaining popularity. I love that for you. You say that it's one time and you'll quit. I don't believe it because it's so electric because this is the furthest up the mountain I've been and now it's exciting like seven seven bets in now it's like okay I could be a little more reckless earlier on when

I've only got one or two seven now my footing like I don't want to have to climb back up to seven. So I got to pick my spots well, makes things electric. I was on Jacobi Smith last weekend, though he was not my climb combatant last weekend. Marco Tolio was, and he got it done. I got talked into that one and worked out. So we'll see where I go this week, and we may loop you in to help. But let's stop bearing the lead here, Billy, because everyone is here to see, to talk about, to listen to UFC 311. This is one of the better cards you will see put together.

certainly from a main event perspective, if you are just going, not main event, but main card, is elite, exceptional. I mean, we started the top with a lightweight contest, the rematch between Islam Makachev and Armand Sarukin, Marad Válaasvili, Umar, Nomegamato Medov, and the co-main for the Bantamway belt, Yiriparajah, Jhanato Moikano, Kevin Holland, Rini Aideur. It is an exceptional main card. So I did just want to get your take on the card before we dive into the breakdowns, Billy. How are you feeling about this weekend? What's your excitement level for 3-11? Yeah, extremely excited for the main card.

I think by pay-per-view standards, the prelims are a little bit on the weaker side. I could just be saying that through gambling colored goggles, though, because there's a lot of mismatches and climb-style betting lines on the undercard, whereas the main event's got some really close ones. I love when we get these, you know, minus 112, minus 108 fights, and we've got a few of them. So as a gambler, absolutely love the main card. as a fight fan, Sarakian versus Mokachachab might be my most anticipated fight in a really long time.

So absolutely zero complaints. I'll be missing part of the prelim card to watch my lions anyway since they're playing Saturday night. So it kind of works out for me on a personal level. That will work very, very well from a timing standpoint. Yeah, like the main event is as good of a fight as can be made. And so, Billy, you know the deal by now? You're an old hand at the no-bets bar. we're going to dive into all 14 of the fights.

Some of them are relatively new. They got booked within the last 36 hours or so. I'm one of them. I don't even have odds on, frankly. So I'll have to see if odds have dropped since I put together my little cheat sheet sheet here. But I certainly have odds for the main event because it is the big one. Islam Makachev versus Armand Sruccian. The rematch this time for the lightweight title.

Makachev, a considerable betting favor right now, Billy. Minus 400, the comeback on Sarukian plus 310. Moxiev coming into this as the number one pound for pound fighter in the world, defended his belt against Dustin Poyate. You see 302 last year. Serukian won a split decision over Charles Oliva to get here, but he is the guy that many people believe to be a champion in waiting. Their first fight, competitive, not necessarily close on the scorecards,

but certainly competitive. So, Billy, how are you feeling about the main event this weekend? Yeah, I'm kind of surprised that the line is this wide, right? Because stylistically, they're very similar. I think Sarukin is probably the overall better athlete. He's a little bit more explosive. I would argue has more power. I know Makachev knocked out Alexander Volcanovsky,

but doing that to a 1-45er who took the fight on a one-week notice doesn't get you a lot of points in my book. And the split decision win for Saracian over Oliver, I thought was a very clear decision win for him. I don't know who, who, or why that went the other way for Olivera. So I'm pretty excited about it. The way I, you know, broadly speaking, handicapped fights is I look at wrestling, striking,

and grappling, like once you're already on the mat. If you can win two out of those three realms, you're kind of going to win no matter how the fight works. And I don't see Makachev has a clear advantage in anything other than maybe submissions once it's on the mat. Striking is pretty close. Makachev a little bit more technical, Saurakian, a little bit more explosive, a little bit more pop, takes bigger risks.

The wrestling we saw in the first fight, neither of them could really hold each other down for an extremely extended period of time. That's going to be close. The one thing I think is a big advantage for Makachev is the cardio, though. I think he'll, if this one gets deep and Sarakian doesn't have two, three rounds in the bank, it's going to be pretty tough for a comeback from the Sarakian side. So betting standpoint, what I'm looking at right now, I put just a quarter of a unit on Sarakian's money line at plus 3.30.

I'm waiting to see the point spread at draft. Kings because they've been going to a lot of plus nine and a half on a main event underdogs lately. If we can get the plus nine and a half at like even money or better, that's a huge bet for me. And then I think, you know, maybe after round two, round three, somewhere in there, if the price comes back in on Makachev and we can arbitrage it out where we even out or, you know, break a profit either way, I'll be looking to come back in because my biggest question

with Saruk in is how does he hold up in the fourth and fifth rounds, given that his style is so taxing. He's exploding in for takedowns. He's lunging over. He's throwing crazy axe kicks. Where Mokachev kind of conserves gas a little bit better, right? He goes for a lot of trip takedowns. He drags you to the mat.

He doesn't need to explode and getting wild scrambles. That, I think, is the key edge here, really for either fighter. So because of that, I want to be on Sarki and early. Come back a little bit on Mokachev late. So you and I have some similar views on this, but I think also some pretty clear differences. Because for me, I do think as the Mokachev is pretty clearly advantaged in this. fight. I think that he, I would agree. I do believe that Sarekian is the more explosive, the more powerful fighter. I think he hits harder. I think he is not nearly as technically good and certainly

not as defensively sound as the Makhchchav is on the feet. I would say the grappling is close to a wash, but a slight edge towards Mokachev. We saw that in the first one because of the way Saurkechian wants to go about his grappling. It is a lot of explosive double games. Whereas Makachev can play that game if necessary, but I think he's a far superior fighter in the clinch in particular is a clear point of effect for him to me. And I just think that even if Surkin can have some success with getting takedowns, we saw that he can't really hold Makachev down. He can't really effectuate a big threat on the ground. I'm not sure Makachev can really make a big threat to Surrqqan on the ground either, but I think you have a little more successful. holding. Largely, I think this fight will be determined on the feet, where I think that

Makachev is, his defense is just better, and I think that that is, probably mitigates the damage that perhaps Serbian can get done early. All that being said, the margins by which I think Makachev is better than Syracian are very, very small. To your point, I do think the clearest advantage he has is in the cardio department, just because of the way Cirquean fights how, how much he throws himself into stuff particularly early. I mean, we have seen him fade down the stretch. Even in that third round against Charles Olivaire, he was kind of just hanging on there at the end.

And we know that Makachev is battle tested. He can go five rounds. He maybe fades a little bit as well. He is not like a Maraud Valshvili cardio machine. But I think that if it gets into the championship rounds, his experience, his ability to last there, I think is better. And I think it will get there. But all that being said, I am actually on Syracian.

I have a half unit placed on him at plus 310 because I do think the margins are just so small in favor of Makachev that if Makachev, he's not old, but he is getting, he's getting a little older. Surrician is still getting better. I don't think Makachev will be getting that much better fight to fight, and he's near the part where he will start to level off and maybe decline slightly. Sorkan, I still think is developing. Maybe he comes in with, he's talking about having a super secret move that he will use. And so given like how competitive I think this fight, I think there's a very real world where this fight is 4946 that feels closer than that, right? Like that feels like every round was a little bit of a toss up, maybe won by small margins. But given how small the margins, these odds are just so long to me.

Plus 310 felt like value. And so I took a half unit shot on Amman Zrukian to pull off the upset. So we are alike on that at least. We both have money on Amman Zrukian, even if though I feel decently about Islam-Machachachach even his hand raised. To your point, though, I mean, if they do give us the plus nine and a half on draft kings, 49-46 for Mokachev, we still cover that nine and a half. And I kind of agree with you where I think that's probably the likeliest outcome where

Sarakian wins one of the first two. It looks close after two. Machchap slowly pulls away but doesn't finish him. So based on what the money line is, you'd think we'd get plus $150 or better on the plus nine and a half, you know, how they typically adjust that. I don't know if they're going to be sharp enough to adjust that down a little bit here. But yeah, I think that's all kind of point in us in the same direction where if it's plus nine and a half and not plus five and a half, that's a pretty clear, like, best bet of all the

options there. Plus nine and a half, I would like a considerable amount. It is, I honestly was pretty surprised to see the line at this, at the place it is. I thought that Islam would be a favorite, obviously, and a minus 250 or something, but minus four. hundred just feels really wide in a fight that is as good as this one. But Billy, it's not the only good fight because the co-main event is maybe it like in my hierarchy of best fights that can be made in mixed martial arts that aren't champ versus champ fights right now.

Islamakachev versus Arman Surukian two is like probably number one. The co-main event may be number two as Moraab Vález really puts his Bannamai title on the line against is a Marksha's training partner and friend. Umar Naramagum Medov. And Nirmagamatov is the betting favorite minus 325 thereabouts. Come back on Valashvili plus 275. The champion's first title defense, he is a sizable underdog, despite having won 11 in a row, including his unanimous decision win over Sean O'Malley at UFC 306 to claim the belt.

Billy, how are we feeling about the co-main event? Do you also see in some value on the underdog in this one? I want to be seeing value on the underdog in this one. I came into the week thinking, man, we're getting the champ plus money. How do you not do that? But the more I look into it, the harder time I have putting some actual U.S. dollars here on Marab. And the reason why, Umar's never been taken down, and Marab isn't really a good striker. We've seen him win one fight where he didn't land takedowns.

That was against Jose Aldo, and it was kind of a crappy fight where he just cage-pushed him. I'm not saying robbery. I'm not even necessarily mad at the decision. I wasn't complaining about the decision. I'm complaining about the quality of the fight, although I wouldn't necessarily argue with you. I'm with you there. And Umar's got to be the better striker here, right? Like, he's faster. He's shown us more. The one thing that worries me with Umar is just his level of competition hasn't been nearly as high as some of these other guys coming into championship fights. Like, look at Sarakki in his

fought just to get to this title fight. He's fought so many tough dudes. Umar fought Corey Sandhagen and like a bunch of dudes who have losing record to her or who have been cut from the UFC. So it's not, he's not quite as battle tested, which worries me a teeny bit. But yeah, I can't get there on Marab. I really like Umar by decision here. I don't think he finishes Marab. I don't know that it's humanly possible to finish this version of Cardio Marab. I was hoping fight to go to a decision would be a better price. That's past minus two So can't really bet that, I don't think. And then kind of the inverse of the other one, if we get to three rounds and it looks like Umar's wearing out or he kind of did too much early,

Marab Live makes a lot of sense to me, but you could argue for Marab Live bet in basically any Marab Dvalifili fight he's ever been in. So not super interested in this one pre-fight. Maybe Umar decision at even money. And then Marab Live, if we get something crazy, plus 600, plus 700, after he loses a round or two. So I'm with you and then I would love to see value in Marab because there is a part of me. And I think that this part is, you know, this is the heart. This is the gut.

Or I say it's a little ridiculous that a man who has accomplished what Marab de Valsh really has over his past 10 fights or whatever. Beating four former champions in his last four, four champions in his last four fights has looked. looked like the best Bannon Wade on Earth is this big an underdog until I just go and watch the fights. And I, I am so confident that Umar no Margamatov gets his hand raised on Saturday because I don't see what Marab's path is other than just spamming takedowns and winning a bad decision. Because he can spam takedowns in rounds four and five and maybe actually succeed, but he still has to steal one of the first three rounds doing that.

And if, you know, doing the Jose Aldo, I'm going to hold you against the fence thing for prolonged periods of time. And I don't think that he'll even have success doing that. Like I, Marab is the, has the better cardio, no questions asked. And I think that's the only skill that he has that is better than Umar. And that's a great skill. But I don't, he can't shoot takedowns forever. He has to provide offense.

And on the feet, I think Umar has a pretty decisive. decided advantage. If Marab even does get Umar down, he is not going to hold him down for any amount of time. And on the other hand, like if, if Umar finds a way to pull off a trip, I think he probably can have a little more success holding Marab down. To me, the, and then there's the, I didn't even mention sort of the big overarching thing that I know a lot of people don't like to take this into consideration. I can't help it because of how things have unfolded. the mental game going into this fight is so striking to me because of how Marab is handled this fight being booked.

And I do not believe Marab is scared of Umar, but I think he is fundamentally aware that Umar is an incredibly difficult fight for him. And that's why he rejected calling out Umar when after 306, they were like, Umar's in the crowd. You want to say something? And he's like, he just, no, I want to talk to Dana White. and why he is so mad that he has to fight him because he knows that this fight is tough. And on the other end of things, I think Umar is carrying himself that he knows that this is a tough fight, but that he should win this fight.

So I ultimately think Umar is going to get it. And the only question I have about my bet. Actually, I forgot. I will add one more. You're definitely right on the live thing. If Marab wins like the first round or something, then you're probably not going to get like a great price on him. But if he wins around one, I would definitely take a step. dab. And if I was going to bet Marab, I would just wait till after round one anyway, because

then I'm either getting, okay, he won the first round. He'll still be plus money, but I can feel better about it. Or if you lose the first round, I'm just going to get better odds. Like, he will be, if I'm feeling Rob's going to do it, I would wait anyway for a live bet on him. But setting that aside, Billy, here's where you come into my betting. Because I got two fights that I'm considering. And this is one of the considerations for the climb. I am considering remaking Umar and Marco Medov my eighth step of the climb. Obviously feels insanely risky to do that given the champion that Maravdvalishvili is. But tell me why I should or shouldn't put all my chips on the climb in the middle here for Umar.

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switching to Bel Air Direct and use the money to fix your car. Bel Air Direct, insurance, simplified. Conditions apply. The strong argument I have against it is because there are a lot more obvious opportunities on this card. If this were another card where this was our only opportunity to do it, I actually don't hate that, and I knew you were setting up for that. But I think there's better spots on this card specifically where we don't need to get greedy, especially, come on, you're on step seven.

Like, are we going to risk step seven betting against Marab? Betting against Mara. But I want to feel alive, Billy. I get it. I do get it. But yeah, this is not one I would take. To your point on the mindset, though, I did mean to mention before. Marab said publicly, like, after he won the belt, he wanted five, six months off, like all the other champions get.

And the UFC said, no, you're fighting in January because we have to get Umar in before Ramadan. So there's definitely something here where the UFC doesn't seem to like these Sarah Longo extended family fighters very much. much and wants to get the belts away from them as quickly as possible. And Rob said he only had a six-week training camp for this one. That cardio might not even be there, which sounds like I'm trying to talk you into the climb. There's just one later on that I love so much more. So I don't want to give that one away yet, but we'll talk about that shortly. It's probably the other one that I've circled as a potential climb.

And I've talked to many people about this. All reasonable parties agree that Umar would be an insane pick given our choices this week. but I kind of want to feel alive. That being said, you've convinced me, the overwhelming number of people saying that this would be dumb to me have convinced me. Instead, I will have Umar in a three-leg parlay. I was basically waiting between these two guys.

One of them is going to slot into this three-leg parlay. The other would be the climb opportunity this week. And we will slot Umar into a three-leg parlay that I've got coming. Because do you have a lot of wide odds on this card, frankly, as we get through it? I love a lot on the matchups. A lot of wide odds, though. one fight, Billy, that doesn't have wide odds, is our feature bout of the evening. Former light heavyweight champions matching up as Yuri Prajska takes on Jamal Hill.

This is anywhere between slight plus money on either end to basically pick them in a lot of spots. And so, Billy, my question for you is very simple. And this are most closely lined about of the entire card and certainly of the ones we've talked about. Is there one side here that you think is getting undervalued? should be a healthy favorite. I don't know about necessarily healthy favorite, but I think Jamal Hill is pretty clearly the side here. Stylistically against Yeri, it's just like the dream matchup for Jamal Hill.

He's a super precise counterstriker, stays at range and picks you off with his left hand. And Yuri comes in throwing wild stuff, clubbing at you, jumping all over the place. Like if I was trying to come up with a fighter who would look perfect for Jamal Hill to get to do Jamal Hill stuff, it would be Yeri. And then the other thing, you know, watching back that, Alex Paheda fight. I don't want to say Paheda got lucky to knock out Jamal Hill, because he knocks out everybody. It wasn't luck.

If you watch, though, when Herb Dean tried to step in, while he waved him off, Paheda moved his lead foot outside of the lefty Jamal Hill's lead foot, got a better position and then restarted. There's a little bit of, you know, trickery there, or his year he might say maybe he used some dark arts in forcing that to happen. So

Jamal Hill was also coming off of a torn ACL in, like, record recovery time there, like Aaron Rogers Speed recovery. That obviously wasn't great. Now he's another nine, ten months removed from that, which I think is a huge advantage for a guy who used his movement so well, used leg kicks fairly well. And somebody's going to get hit pretty hard and pretty early here. I just like the precision and the accuracy and the technique from Jamal versus the

I'm just going to overwhelm you with craziness of Yuri because that works on guys when you have a huge athletic advantage or huge power. advantage or they just panic in the face of that. Jamal Hill does none of those things. He stands in the pocket. He stood in the pocket with Paheda and had some moments in there. I would take Hill up to probably like minus 140 or something in there, and we're getting them at close to pick him.

He was a slight underdog earlier in the week. Those are gone, but I'd still take, I'm seeing the best of minus 112 as we record this on Tuesday. I am so impressed, Billy, because you're the only person on God's green earth that has fallen for the Jamal Hill propaganda, that actually he was going to beat Alex Pereira, but for the shenanigans with the groin kick. I didn't think that Jamal Hill was finding success with that argument, but I see that now he has. So good on you, Jamal.

Keep hammering that drum and more people will come around. I will not be one of them. I didn't say he was going to win. I'm just saying it certainly helped expedite the process, okay? I bet on Alex Bejada there. I thought coming off the Achilles that fast was a bad idea. But the dark arts, man. You can't just keep using the dark arts on people and expect it to not go noticed.

Uh-huh. I, everyone who has ever listened to me talk about anything will know where I'm betting on this. This has absolutely nothing to do with a stylistic breakdown. I love Yuri Pajka. He is my large idiot son. And I will continue to support him in all his endeavors. And particularly at this, like,

I think it will not shock me if Jamal Hill just lasers him out of there because Yeri blocks punches with his head. And that's just who he is. But also, he's really durable. Like Pereira hurt him a bunch and then he has to kill him. I think Jamal can hurt him. I know that he can. But it also wouldn't shock me if Yer he just kind of like walked through it.

And then Jamal was suddenly having to deal with this dude who's going to hit him. Because it's not like Jamal Hill has an iron chin. So I think this. fight is it frankly a coin flip i i was going to back year you no matter what i got them at even money and that's really all the breakdown here it's it's who i want to win and i'm going to support my boys through all all endeavors of course so iir prahashka is the pick for me we move ourselves on to i mean super being slept on fight the low key banger of the week a incredible lightweight matchup that maybe even has title implications depending on how a few things unfold here

Benile Daryush taking on Hanato money, Moikano, in the second bout of the main card. Daryush, plus 165 underdog. Moikano minus 170 are on the favorite. Moikano's on that impressive four-fight win streak. He has gotten over with fans with the money-I-need-money gimmick. And Daryush was on the cusp of a title fight. Probably, frankly, deserved a title fight and just sort of got passed over. And has lost two in a row now.

So hasn't fought in over a year coming back. Billy, how do you see this lightweight contest matching up? Yeah, it's interesting. Even the line has been plummeting on B'Neil Darius. People have really changed their minds on this. I'm sure you did the plus 160 like earlier this morning. Plus 150 now the best available. It is rapidly going that way.

And I actually agree with the public here. I wish I would have better when you could get two to one odds on B'Neil Daryush. But kind of what I was talking about earlier, I think Daryush is pretty clearly the better wrestler. Like, we put these guys in a singlet and ask him to try to pin each other. It's going to be Daryush. I also think he's the better submission grappler once it gets to the mat. He's a little bit bigger and stronger.

For those who don't know, he was like a crazy BJJ prodigy, trained like two, three years and then went to some very high-level tournaments and did well there before getting into MMA. Of course, the huge question is, does his chin hold up after two relatively ugly knockouts in his last couple of fights? I think it does. I think the year off makes a big difference, or the 13 months at this point, he's been off. And if you look back at Moikano's record, he's finished people, but it's mostly been strikes on the ground. His last knockdown was in 2018 at featherweight against Cub Swanson before Moikano came up to 155.

I don't think he has the power to make a huge dent in Darius's chin if it's recovered at all. I'm very worried that it hasn't, and he just gets breathed on too hard and falls down. As long as that doesn't happen, though, I think Benny Daryush is the better overall fighter here. It feels like Dary Ush is a million years older because he's had gray hair since he was 19. These guys are like two months apart in age. It's not even, there's not even that age factor that, you know, like one guy's breaking down factor and play into it. So as long as you can get Dary Ush better than plus 140 or so, I'd still take that. By the time this podcast comes out, those might be gone, though.

So I would not wait any longer than you have to to jump on that side because the prices rapidly changing on us. Yesterday's price is not today's price. I have yesterday's price, so, because I did jump on Benadarius 165, plus 165, sorry. I, because basically I agree with you. I didn't honestly even factor in the, his year, it's been like a year, maybe his chin will have taken some time on that, because I don't think that is, like, he's been dropped in a bunch of fights before then.

I think his chin is just a little bit of a concern broadly, but I don't believe, Marcona is a dude to really test that chin. Like you said, when he does sort of things like that, his striking is developed, but I would not say that he is really a massive threat on the feet. He is a threat on the ground, and I just don't think he's a threat on the ground to Benile Daryush, who was a prodigious talent in BJJ.

There are stories of him, like, teaching Fabricio Verdoom how to do shit in Beach. Like, this is a guy who knows how to grapple, and I believe is the, superior wrestler of the two. And so if he, the, the, you can talk me into, or you can tell yourself stories about why Darius is going to lose this fight. Um, his run, maybe was a little bit of smoke and mirrors.

He didn't, he mostly didn't beat anybody great during that like eight fight win streak or whatever. Tony Ferguson was a shell of himself. He was catching dudes on the decline or guys who never really got over. But I think that he was still like, show. himself to be a very, very good fighter. And Moikano, I don't know, just feels to me like he's rolling high right now, like he's high rolling his career and is maybe a little bit worse of a fighter than his recent performances

have shown. And so I, at worst, I think this is a coin flip matchup and getting a little bit of value on Benel Derrish. And so I took an underdog flyer on him. So once again, we are aligned, but will we be aligned on the main card opener? because I, there's a fighter here that I have a personal attachment to. And so that will be dictating how I choose. I am speaking, Kevin Holland taking on the Dutch Knight.

Reiner de Ritter, first of all, shout out to the matchmaking, the Dutch Knight trying to conquer Holland, A plus matchmaking. That's some Joe Silva shit right there. Way to go, boys. But basically a pick-em fight as well here. Minus 1-10s on either side, depending on your book, or at least at the time I put this together, which was early this morning, so maybe that has changed. basically a pick-em fight.

Billy, how do you see the pick-em who should get your money? Yeah, the two bats I, like, rushed to make this week when I started looking at stuff yesterday was Jamal Hill, who we've already talked about, and the Dutch Knight, Reiner de Ritter. There's a couple reasons for that. Kevin Holland kind of struggles when they put him against grapplers, to the point where he's came out and, like,

basically begged Dana White and Hunter Campbell and such to only give him strikers, and to the point where he'll accidentally take you down and then just let you back up because he doesn't even want to think about grappling. He doesn't want to have anything to do with it, which is weird for Travis Luter, BJJ Blackbout, to seemingly hate the art so much that he refuses to engage. And we just saw him get worked on the ground by, um, was it Roman DeLidezay in his last fight, correct? Correct.

TK.O rib injury technically, but he was not succeeding on the floor. Right. He was getting dominated on the ground, which led to the rib injury. That rib injury was like less than three months ago. I know it wasn't a huge injury. He probably would have liked to continue that fight. It had to have been at least a couple weeks off from the gym, right? Like you can't just roll in on Monday like that didn't happen and keep training.

So a quick turnaround with an injury and a horrible stylistic matchup against Reiner de Ritter. Absolutely love the RDR side here. I think the UFC is trying to get their money's worth with the big RDR signing and just put him in stylistic matchups where he can succeed at least early on, get a big money fight out of him at some point. With all that said, if Kevin Holland just lands a big straight right and drops him 30 seconds in, would not be shocked at all, but I don't think that's the likeliest outcome. So I'm on RDR here.

Might sprinkle a little bit of RDR by submission or inside the distance. At some point, once those markets become available. So I'm on RDR because anyone who has ever listened to any of my stuff probably understands that I have a deep fascination and love for RDR. I will tell you, the props for by submission and inside the distance are not that appealing. It's like plus 280 for sub, plus 240 or something for ITD. Reasonable, but I want a bigger price for something like that. That being said, outside of my personal love for RDR, I think that this stylistic

is as good a stylistic matchup as he can hope for. I'd be pretty surprised if Kevin Holland, like, one punched him. RDIO is fairly durable, right? Like Malikin tuned him up, but also it took Malikin a few when Malikin is a dude who had success in heavyweight. Like Kevin Holland is not, what you didn't mention about Kevin Holland outside of the stylistic issues he has with grapplers. He's a pretty mid-mid middleweight. Like I know he likes to keep doing the middleweight thing. He is obviously a much better welterweight than he is a middleweight.

He's only nine and five in the division because in part like he is long and tall like he is lanky. but he is not thick for middleweight. He is not big, whereas RDR is a big fellow. It's a dude who competed comfortably at light, heavy weight. He is a big middleweight. Not the athlete, Kevin Holland is. He certainly has his own foribles, but I don't think Holland's going to be able to just sort of whack him out of there real fast.

And RDR will get it to the ground because Holland, though I do think he has improved as a wrestler, still not great at it. RDR will get there and that this is just sort of how the matchup goes. So I'm very happy that I get to support one of my boys and feel good about it. But I would, I would frankly make this bet, I think, even if I didn't have a personal attachment to RDR. So that's our main card, Billy, and I'm going to level with everybody. Things get worse from here. Certainly some highlights to talk about in the prelims.

A couple of these fights are entirely meaningless. And a few of these fights used to be better, but they had some opponent changes. So things aren't nearly as good after the main card. But we press on. and I'm not certain that this will hold true, but as it stands, the intro fight for us into the main card, the prelim finale, is Bogdan Guskov taking on late replacement Billy Elikaana. Guskov was supposed to fight Johnny Walker. That fight was going to be real fun. I was very excited to watch Bogdan Guscoff kill Johnny Walker.

Now he's fighting a debutante in Billy Alicana who has fallen Elika. LFA, uh, PFL, I think a challenger series card and maybe one other, a little bit of PFL experience. Uh, the odds are out. We did get odds as this fight was put together fairly recently, but odds have dropped. Gustav minus 330, Elikana plus 270. Billy, are you going with your fellow Billy to pull off an upset on short notice here? I am not. There's another short notice fight we're going to talk about.

I'm a little bit more intrigued. Uh, I wish you could bet on whether the UFC would keep this. the featured prelim because no's got to be like minus 10,000. My main note in my sheet that I'm looking at here is I wish this were still Johnny Walker. And then another thought I had just while you were talking is, if not Johnny Walker, why couldn't they have convinced Anthony Smith to come back for one more so he could fight European Anthony Smith? Because those two guys look very much alike. That would have been fun.

Yeah, I don't care about this fight. I hope it's the very first one of the night and or during the Lions game because what are we going to do here? This is not, Billy Alicana is not someone who would have made it to the UFC had he not been available and local at the time they needed someone his size, where I think that's a little bit different for the other guy we're going to talk about in a similar spot. Yeah, it is like, if you want to throw Bogd and Goosecrobb and a parlay, I don't think that that's terrible. Billy O'Connor, he's just not been impressive. He's just a big Southpaw. Like, that's just it. Like, he's just a big South Pole.

And at light heavyweight, being a big South Pole, I can carry you a long way in this trash-ass division, frankly. But, like, he's, he doesn't even seem to have, like, big power. He's a serviceable fighter, but this is a guy who should be doing PFL Challenger stuff, not competing against a light heavyweight of some acclaim, not like Bogdan Gooseco is amazing. I expect Goosecalf will get him out of there. But this is one of those fights where, like, throwing him. a bet on Goosecov to me feels unnecessary.

Like you're just adding in variance that you don't need in your life and I certainly don't. But I previously was very prepared to bet a healthy wager on Bogd and Goosecov against Johnny Walker. I'm upset that that's no longer an option, especially because Elycona does appear to have a good chin at least. So like this might just be bad light heavy weight of like it goes 15 minutes instead of Johnny Walker gets knocked out comically, which is what was going to happen. before. So unfortunate shift, I think that the UFC should change this, but they are still at present acting as if this is your prelim main event, which is weird, because I think that there's a better argument for the next fight to be a prelim main event, even though I still don't think it's the ideal fight. I'm talking about a bantamweight contest as hot shit prospect, Peyton Talbot,

takes on Haone Barcellos, who has been around the block for a long time very, you know, perfectly solid journeyman good like good middle of the road sort of band to wait and how any barcelos who can be pretty fun at times talbot biggest betting favorite on the card overwhelming betting favorite frankly billy minus 1,200 an enormous number come back on barcelos plus 850 talbot three and o in the ufc made his debut last year or i think actually technically made his debut in 2023 at the end of it but seems to be coming along many people's choice to be breakout fighter of 2025. A lot of hype behind Peyton Talbot. Is that hype deserved, Billy? And is frankly this price tag deserved? Yeah, I think it is.

He came in and he starched Cameron Samin in one of his early fights in the UFC. And I was pretty high on Samin and still on to an extent. I think he's a good prospect going to go pretty far. Kind of weird. It feels like a step down in terms of level

of competition because he went Cameron Saman. then Janus Gimori and Rione Barcelos, which feels like you could have flipped that order on its head and probably would have made a little bit more sense. I'm not sure why they're making this fight other than to say, guys, look how good this Peyton Talbot kid is. He's awesome. But can kind of do it all, super creative grappler. The one thing I noticed, his reaction time and his ability to like slip punches by the slightest of margins is exceptional. Like I've never seen anyone like that. Not even really something you can train. It just feels like a, natural gift that he has that other people don't. My big intrigue here is whether this will challenge the record for

longest odds ever in a UFC fight, which I believe Bo Nichols still has over Val Woodburn, because it's as high as minus 1,600 at certain shops right now. So well out of reach of the climb. Don't think we really have anything there. If I had to bet this one, the one angle I'm a little bit interested in, is maybe he shows off a little bit of grappling and tries to get some cage time in because his last two fights were kind of quick. So if you want to, we don't have props up yet, at least not that I've seen.

If over one and a half comes in it plus money, I might take that because he came out before his fight with Samin, or Gomori, one of the two, and said, hey, I've been kind of a slow starter. I want to put some people away right away. I think he's going to have an opposite tactic this one was like, look, I kind of want to show my grappling, I want to show I can be extended, I want to build some cage time. That's the one angle. We'll have to see the numbers we get, though.

we do have odds out for over one and a half. They are not plus odds, but you outlined a bet that I do have because I am on the over one and a half here, minus 160 in this fight. Talbot is just too big a price, certainly too big a price for the climb. That would be a fun, different kind of climb

to just do as big a favorites as you want and see how long you can run it. But minus 1,200 is just cartoonishly large. He's too big to even put in a parlay because you're just gaining no juice. which will mean that Peyton Talbot is actually the first. I do a prospect breakdown of contender series, and the guys I identify as my favorite top-tier prospects,

I just sort of blindly bet them because historically I'm, like, overall, I think I'm like 25 and 3 or something with those IDs. Talbot I have bet previously at minus 1,200, there's just no point in doing it. So I can't bet on him straight. I am on the over 1.5 because, yes, he did get kind of early, finished is late, but seven of his nine fights have hit the over one and a half. In general, he does take a little more time to get going. And Ronnie Barcelos is a dude who's very durable.

He's been finished a couple times, but only a couple times in his career. I think that this fight has a real opportunity to not get, you know, not go to the cards or whatever, but to make it over into the eight, nine, ten, even third round as far as minutes of the fight goes. So I'm on the over one and a half, but it's minus 160. You're not getting a plus number price for that over one and a half. Where are you seeing those odds? I was looking around a little bit. So the minus 160 is at bet online.

That is actually now down to minus 165. A couple of other places have it as well. Gotcha. I wouldn't take that. I might even consider a round two or round three sprinkle on Talbot because you might get some juicy odds on that one of those two rounds. And then Fandall does the split round three or decision, which you'll probably get a pretty big price on Talbot for that, just in case it's the third round and he still win. So some of those Talbot late options, what I'm looking at.

I don't think minus 165 is good enough for the over one and a half personally, though. Disagree, and that's why I'm on it. But we press on to, I think, the obvious choice to actually be the prelim main event if the UFC does swap things around. because it's two ranked fighters competing. We are talking a heavyweight bout between Jelton Almeida and Sergei Spivak. Almeida, back to being a massive betting favorite. I actually don't think he ever stopped being a massive bed and favorite. I think he wasn't that big against Curtis Blades, but was still a betting favorite.

Minus 400. The comeback on Spivak, you can get him in the plus 350 range out there. Almeida, 7 and 1 in the UFC, bounced back after losing the Curtis Blades fight. with a win over Alexander Romano of at UFC 302 last year. Spivak on a pretty decent run, though lost a couple like eight and three overall, but it seems to kind of be rounding into a quality fighter submits Marcyne Tibera in August after losing to Cyril gone in the previous fight. Billy, was this the fight you were talking about when you noted a opportunity for the climb?

Because this is the fight I was talking about. It actually was not. I think heavyweight is a little bit too. There's actually two others. There's one that's a little bit riskier in the, in the vein of the Normog made off fight. But no, this one, I wouldn't take it. I just think heavyweight kind of as inherently in anything can happen to vision.

We all thought J. Iilton was going to dominate Curtis Blades. And he did dominate Curtis Blades for a little bit. Or most of us did. I don't know what your personal opinion on that one was. I was actually on Curtis Blades. But congrats, because you might have been one of the few. people who actually took that side and you deserved it. I feel bad for five minutes.

I still think Jailton is at least a future title contender. I don't really see anyone between him and like the top couple of guys. I'm just kind of waiting to see if we can get submission at a good price just because Bivik is a guy who will open up a little bit more on the ground than Derek Lewis. Derek Lewis just hung on for dear life every time he got down there. Spivok likes to go for subs of his own. It is a lot easier to submit a guy who's trying to submit. you than it is to submit someone who just wants to hug you really hard.

So if we can get a good price on submission by good price, I mean, minus 150 or better inside the distance, I'm because of my job only looking at the onshore sports books and can't find any yet. But later on, that's probably the angle I'll be taking. Yeah, this is my climb bet. It's on Jelton Almeda. You can still find him at like minus four or five in some offshores. I think that this, so it's weird because I was, I backed Curtis Blades. I picked Curtis Blades.

I bet Curtis Blades. And I was like, he's got great wrestling. He'll keep him on the feet. And Jelton Al-Meda. He has a one-trick pony. And that trick is terrific. But as soon as you stuff that takedown, he is going to be cooked. And I'll be damned if Jailton didn't just blow right through that takedown offense to Curtis Blades.

And for five minutes, I was like, oh, shit, Jailton's like the real deal. He doesn't even need to learn to strike because apparently he can just double any human being alive. That's fine. And then, of course, we know what happened. Curtis kind of gets those elbows going off and that out of nowhere, almost sort of wonky finish, didn't see it coming. But I left that fight being more impressed by Almeida, even in defeat and feeling great about my bet. And the Alexander Romano fight was just a get-right fight. Like we kind of, I thought that that could be more competitive than it was.

I still thought Jailton would win, but Ramano just had absolutely nothing for him in that contest. And frankly, I think the same is probably true of Sergei Spivak. Like, Spivak is just not a great athlete. Like, he is a big dude with some talent and some skill. But the cap on his game is largely his athleticism and really the lack thereof. And so, like, basically just look at his resume, the best athletes he's fought. he has lost to. That's sort of it recently.

Like Cyril Gahn and Tom Aspinall kind of killed him. And he did be Derek Lewis, but Derek Lewis is Derek Lewis, right? It's a different thing. I think Jailton's going to have plenty of success doing exactly what we expect of him to shoot a double, get it, and then Spivek's not going to have enough to offer off of his back. And to your point, Jailton may even get an early submission if Spivak is trying to grapple with him as opposed to doing the, I'm just... just going to not get submitted game. So

Jailton was, it was between him and Umar for my climb opportunities. And we, as we killed Umar at the top of the order, because everyone says that I'm crazy, Jailton is who will be locking in for the climb bet on. We are

going to pick up the pace a little bit because that's really the last of the good, good fights. A couple of other interesting ones, and there's a lightweight bout that I probably spend a little more time on, but we don't have to spend a ton of time on this one. Zachary Reese taking on Azamat Beckerweb in a middleweight contest. Reese was supposed to fight.

Who was he? Cedric Dumas. And Dumas pulled out yesterday or in the past 36 hours. And Azamat Beckerweb steps in. I don't even have odds for this fight at this point in time. So, Billy, I have nothing to say on it. Do you have anything you'd like to mention or should we move on to the good fight? No, I do real quick.

I kind of alluded to this earlier. but if we can get decent plus money on Beko-Ov, I'm not even sure I'm saying that correct. I would actually bet him. I don't think Zach Rees is especially good. He's okay. He's a good athlete. He does some weird stuff. Beco-Wev looks like he might actually be a prospect.

Looks like a guy who might have found his way to the UFC, even if it didn't just happen to be right place, right time like this. So, you know, need a big price on it. Hopefully at least plus 200 would budge a little bit on that. But yeah, Becoev, of the two short-notice guys, he's the one. I'm somewhat interested in once we get lines. Yeah, my guess is we won't even get plus money on him because he is an LFA champ, ATT guy, but I have never seen him fight, so I have just have no idea. I don't think much as Zach Rees, but I just, I can't give an educated opinion on Beck-O-W.

So moving on to a fight that we can talk about and that I would say is like the last good-good fight of this card, a lightweight contest, Grant Dawson taking on Carlos, Faheda, Dawson minus 260, the comeback on Faheta plus 240. Dawson had himself a nice 2024, Billy, 2 and O, bounced back after the difficult Bobby Green loss, also became my enemy when he ruined, I believe, iteration three of the climb, though maybe it was iteration two, because I had the over one and a half, and he killed Joe Selecki under and ruined him a whole day, but then he, you know, he, he, he, he had himself a good year.

So, Billy, are we thinking this Grant Dawson sort of career, not a career turnaround, but his impressive 2024 and sort of the things he's saying about being an improved fighter? Are we taking that to heart? Do we think he's going to continue ascending against CDF? So normally I would, right? Like, he's the much better fighter, I think, at this point in their careers. Do you know what Saturday is, Jed?

U.S. 311. Saturday is Carlos Diego Faheda's 40th birthday. You have brought in the birthday angle. You didn't even catch this one. Could I give you one more fact on the birthday? Oh my God. This is not the first time he has fought on his birthday. The last time, performance of the night,

submission win over Anthony Pettis, was the last time Carlos Diego Faheda fought on his birthday. So for that reason, I'm going to have a silly sprinkle on Diego Fahedis. head a inside the distance. I don't know what the odds are yet. I haven't even looked. But submission, knock out something just for the bit, which I'm shamelessly stealing from you.

But I have been sitting on this one all week. I'm so excited. I've been hoisted by my own partard here. I didn't even do the birthday check, which I do every time. And I just did for what I didn't even think about it. And now to be ruined like this as another birthday action is taking place. Because the problem is, I already have Grand Dawson. I already have him.

Like, he's, he's part of a parlay. So, oh, man, I am, that is not my favorite piece of information to have. This obviously, Carlos J.Fed is going to win. There's no doubt in my mind now. Like, I could tell you why I thought Dawson was in a good matchup. But also, like, it feels like CDF is meant to do this, too. Like, that's his job. It's just ruin, like, good fighters.

or kind of turn it like doing something, right? You know, like it's just who he wants to be. The, the Matush Rebecca's of the world, oh, like, you're fun and interesting, but, like, probably not great. Get, get wrecked, honey. Like, it's absolutely going to happen. And I feel terrible.

What a poll. I can't believe my bit got taken and used against me in such a fashion. I'm reeling, Billy. We got to keep going those. We're closing in an hour here, and we have four fights left to talk about, though. A couple of these, I don't have much to say.

A women's bantamweight contest. One of the rarest sightings in the UFC, women's bantam weights competing against each other. Billy is Carol Hosa takes on Eileen Perez Hosa. About two to one favorite. Mine is 210-ish. Come back on Perez plus 180, 190, depending on where you're getting. Hosa is 7 and 3 in the UFC. She has alternated wins and losses.

Her last like 10 fights or something insane. but is coming off a unanimous decision went over Penny Kianzid in August, and Eileen Perez's lost her debut, but has put together a four-fight win streak since, tapped out Darya Zelaznyakova in September, and sort of gets her crack into the top 15 of the weight class as a result of that. You have got a lot of thoughts on this matchup? Because I'll be honest, Billy, I don't.

I got a little bit. So the one we should point out, We all thought Aelin Perez was going to die on the scales before she tapped out Darya Zelanokova. I don't know if anyone remembers. There was some pretty scary, like, video of her trying to wait for that one. Yeah. And then she comes back and submit someone anyway. I do think this is an interesting one.

I saw under two and a half at plus 375. I haven't seen it doesn't go to the decision line yet, but I would guess it's plus 325 or so based on that. Aileen Perez kind of spams takedowns, and Carol Hosa is a pretty high. level jujitsu player. I could see this one ending on the ground. Not entirely sure who even finishes it on the ground, but I'll have a small sprinkle on some form of this fight doesn't go to a boring decision, which is usually the likeliest outcome in lower level women's fights, but I think there's an angle here that

that doesn't happen. Fight ends inside the distance. Some of the offshores have around plus 300. So if you're looking for that angle domestic, it will probably drop somewhere in the neighborhood of that. I sort of blindly just bet overs in women's fights because of the last few years, overwhelmingly statistically has been the likelihood. I don't even feel like doing that.

If you best guess, Carol Hosa stuff's takedowns and I'll box is Eileen Perez and wins a decision, but I'm just good. Don't need to. And honestly, don't even have that much interest in this fight. But something I do have interest in, our next matchup, because super, super interested in this young man. Rania Nakamura taking on Muyn Gaffarov in a ban and weight contest. Nakamura, a big favorite minus 450 Gaffrov plus 375 of the comeback. Nagamura is 3 and O in the UFC. He was actually my choice this year for the breakout fighter of 2025. I think he is going to have

a very, very big year. Billy, I'm just going to put it out there. I think this dude rules. He is an elite elite wrestler, U-23 world champion. I wrote. about him when I was when I we did a predictions column about like things and when he was my breakout prediction my answer is you guys know who else was a u23 world champion bow nickel and like he's the same tier of prospect he is japanese so he doesn't get to be a multiple time NCAA champion like bo nickel but like this is the same level of wrestling pedigate it's a guy who probably maybe not probably but had a good shot to make the

Olympics but for COVID delaying it a year and him ultimately saying, okay, I'm out. I'm going to go to him. I'm going to make money. I'm going to pursue those things instead. Developing its hands, but elite ability, elite athleticism. And I think that this is a very, like this is an obvious setup fighting against Kofferov, who is just not a huge threat on the feet, frankly, and can get taken down basically it will by Nakamura.

So is Nakamura the guy you were thinking maybe as a climb opportunity? because I wouldn't hate that, frankly. Yeah, Nakamura is my pick for the climb. I don't know how the bylaws of your climb work. Can you go across sports books? Do you have to keep it all in one thing? But you can get them as low as minus 450 still. So that's well inside the minus 500 threshold,

I believe you originally quoted when you divide this idea. It's not a hard and fast minus 500, but that is the goal, right? Like, if you're a little above, a little below, we'll allow it. You know, like, certainly you're below. allow it, but a little above's okay. So, uh, Nakamura, I think would totally, even at like most books I'm looking at, you're seeing minus 550 at the worst, that would be fine. Like that's, we're not playing sticklers here. I think, I think what I got Jacoby Smith last week, I was a little

bit on the wrong side of minus 500. So I was trying to balance that out to get back to the average with my minus 450. Eventually you'll get picks that are on the other side, you know, and it'll all kind of average out. As long as you're not doing minus 800s every time, it's fine. But no, I think he's like kind of the obvious climb pick here because I like to rule out heavy weights because anything could happen in a heavyweight fight. Didn't feel that good about Umar. That kind of left me with this one. So that is my climb pick. And yeah, we'll see if I can make it to the illustrious second step of the climb with Nakamura.

I'll tell you, man, every step up the ladder gets a little higher. The one reason that I did not consider him for the climb, and not a hard and fast rule, but just a broad principle that I sort of applying. he's only had nine fights and while heavyweight is a crapshoot developing fighters can be a crap shoot and like just randomly shit the bed because he doesn't know how to fight yet he's only done it nine times so i wouldn't be a bad choice though honestly i even talked about doing like a parlay of several people i kind of like like nakamura jailton umar and just doing three legs of the climb in one week that seems to be courting disaster though so we won't I hope that this works out for you because I do have Nakamura tied in a parlay with Grant

Austin so we'll you know hopefully both those cash but we'll see. Rounding things out, we got two fights left to talk about Billy and there are probably the two fights I am the least interested in it on the entire card if we're being honest. Ricky Terseos taking on Bernardo Zapage in a bantam weight contest. Terseos fairly sizable underdog plus 290. So Paj minus 345. Terseus kind of know what he is. He is a alternates, wins and losses, can't really grapple basically, can't wrestle at all.

And so Paj lost his USAD debut a sick flying knee knockout against Phenicius Oliveira, one of the best knockouts of 2024. But so Paj can score a lot of takedowns and he's young and talented. And this appears, at least to me, Billy, to be a, hey, we're, look, you, we believe a little bit in you. You had a setback to start. Let's get you. Let's softball this out to you. Here's a very, very winnable fight. Do I have

the right read, Billy, or do you disagree and think the Ricky Terseos is live? No, I'm never betting on Ricky Terseos, right? Just as a point of, no offense to Ricky Tertios. Seems like a great guy. He would absolutely destroy me, but that doesn't

mean I'm betting on him in a UFC fight. This was supposed to happen last year late in the year, but Terseus had an injury or medical situation. I don't remember exactly. I did a full breakdown of it because it was the second to last fight on a card. I hesitate to say co-man event. I took... The penultimate fight. Right. Certainly not a co-man event. Anyway, I got Sopage inside the distance at plus 200. Guy is a wild man. He came out in his debut, throwing all kinds of strikes, going for all kinds of takedowns, just ran out of gas on the third round because he took that fight on

three days notice. Hopefully that doesn't happen here. Hopefully it doesn't matter. So assuming we get similar two to one odds on him to finish it, I actually love that bet, but you can Google Billy Ward, Bernardo Sopage, and check out the breakdown from last time because I'm just leaving it out there. I don't think anything fundamentally has changed. Neither have fought since then. I don't know what else I can do with that article other than let it stand again. I think that that is a fair breakdown. And that takes us to the opening bout of the evening, the first bout of UFC 311. Tagir U.S. U.S. U. U.S. taking on Clayton Carpenter in a flyweight contest.

Ullumbeckov, also out of the Eagle M.MA or Nuremberg-Metov camp. I don't honestly know what they call themselves, the Habib team. And minus 300 favorite against Clayton Carpenter plus 265, Tagir, 4 and 1 in the UFC. That that camp obviously is very supportive of him. His loan losses to Tim Elliott, the perennial top 15 dude, submitted Cody Dirk. and like, I think that was in 2020, actually. As I would say, I think it's over a year ago since he last fought, Carpenter 2 and O in the O.C. Seems to be okay.

This is a fight that in my head, Billy, I think, just, like, I could have done a gimmick parlay of Team Habib and just done Islam, Umar, Tegir, and it probably even pays out. But I don't, that just doesn't seem honestly even that fun to me. and I don't, I think to gear is the better grappler, and that's primarily will this or take place. But honestly, I just don't feel like I have a great read on this one. I don't know that we can safely say to gear is the better grappler. I don't know if you know this about Clayton Carpenter, but he was a world champion both ghee and no ghee.

I believe purple and brown belt, but certainly purple belt, prior to getting into MMA, one of those kind of grappling prodigies at the lower colored belts. So I'm taking a little bit of a dogshot on Clayton Carpenter. I didn't do a ton of research on this one because I go from top to bottom of the card and kind of ran out of time. But close to three to one odds, I don't think he should be a three to one underdog. He's undefeated. He's got good submissions.

The one thing about some of these Dagestani guys, they're so confident they won't get submitted. Sometimes they leave a neck out. We've seen, I think Syed Nomragam Adolf, who's not actually related, but kind of similar style. Got guillotined by somebody not too long ago. We see it happen here and there. If anyone's going to do it, it's a guy with multiple A.B. IBJF gold medals at home. So again, not a huge pick.

Don't bet your life savings on it. But I'm going to have a little sprinkle at Clayton Carpenter, kind of just on vibes at 3 to 1-ish odds. You heard it here. The Action Network supports betting every cent you own on Clayton Carpenter. Lock of the Century were words that were thrown out by the Action Network's Billy Ward. Billy, that's it. We've broken down UFC 311, man.

before we get out of here. Any last words, any thoughts you got? Anybody you want to stake a bet on for your return, like we did last time with Randy Brown, anybody you want to say, this guy's going to win, and if he doesn't,

the next time I come back, it's a dog shit card. Yeah, I almost brought it up when we were talking about it. Because we're on the opposite sides of a pickam here, it's got to be Jamal Hill and Erie. So if my Michigan boy, Jamal Hill,

wins the fight. I get to come back for 312 or one of the pay-per-views. And if your man, Yuri comes against the win, then I'll do UFC, Vegas, Fight Night 76 on ESPN Plus or whatever. So we can put these stakes down. 312 if you win.

312 if you win, I think that's fair. That's in a few weeks. Also a terrific card. 313, we still don't even know what that card is. So 312. If not, what's the worst pile of shit we got coming up here? I'm trying to look down. Honestly, a lot of these, because like Seattle, they're not doing a lot of apex early, so. Canineer versus Rodriguez on the 15th is at the apex.

And outside of the main event, that's pretty rough. Decent main event, but. That's a tough card. Yeah, I think that's it. I think we've found it. So we'll have you back in February for one of those two. And now we know the stakes of that, uh, that fight adds a little bit more intrigued, which we're excited about.

And after 311, we are on to. Saudi Arabia. We will have two weeks off, I believe. Maybe it's just a week. I'm not entirely certain looking at a calendar. I think it's a couple of weeks off. And then we head to Saudi for Israel Adisnett, taking on Nasir D. I want to thank Billy Ward and the Action Network for coming back on. And looking forward to how things shake out for us in that featured fight between Jamal Hill and Yuri Pajshka. BJP all day, baby. I hope, Billy, the next time we see you, we are talking about some Ratchit Apex card. But otherwise, thanks for joining. Thank you all for listening, and we will see you next week. Love y'all. It was the night before the gathering and all through the house. The host wrapped cozy cashmere throw from Home Sense for their spouse,

kids' toys for $6.99 under the tree, and crystal glasses for just $14.99 for their brother Lee. A baking dish made in Portugal for Tom and Sue. And a nice $599 candle, perfectly priced. just for you. Happy holidays to all. And to all a good price. Home Sense. Endless presents perfectly priced.