MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Jessica Andrade Stop The Erin Blanchfield Express On Short Notice At UFC Vegas 69?

Episode Date: February 15, 2023

Coming off of the sensational UFC 284 pay-per-view event in Perth, Australia, the worldwide leader in MMA is following that massive event with ... well, it's a card. On Saturday, one of the baddest women on the planet, Jessica Andrade, steps in on one week notice to face the hottest prospect in the flyweight division, Erin Blanchfield, and while the rest of the card doesn't live up to the lofty main event, it's still a UFC card, which means the No Bets Barred boys are going to be laying some bets down. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off by talking about their tough weekends at UFC 284 before diving into the main event of UFC Vegas 69. Can Erin Blanchfield cement herself as the next flyweight title contender or will Jessica Andrade continue to destroy all in her path? The boys have some thoughts; plus, Flyweight Unders simply cannot lose, and Conner unveils a new mythical fighter with a +1100 price tag attached to him this weekend. Tune in for Episode 35 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another edition of No Betts barred this time. UFC Vegas 69, Jessica Androd's short notice replacement for Tyler Santos going up against Aaron Blanchfield. I have to say, man, Jed, this is one of the UFC cards of all time. It sure is a card.

It's, we are getting a UFC card. It's going to happen this weekend on ESPN Plus. You're going to be able to tune into it. You will be able to watch people fighting an octagon. And the octagon, and there will be some well-known. own MMA fighters calling the fights and maybe doing some analysts analysis, some analysts work on the desk at ESPN. It sure is there.

Sure is going to happen. I love it. I just want to give a quick shout out to the poster makers. First, this was supposed to be Cheetos. Did they even make a poster for this? So they did Cheetos Sandhagen. Then I swear, as soon as they dropped the Santos. Blanchefield poster, they immediately had to replace it with Androge Blanchfield.

Yeah, this is, this is one that you might want to buy the poster just so you can think back on it. I mean, this is, this is really... A night to remember. Yeah, this is Aspen, Lad, Norman Dumont level stuff. And, I mean, beyond the main event, which, you know, I am looking forward to, I think it's going to be a fun fight. It's, uh, it is slim pickings, 11 fights. This is an event that future generations will theme their promise.

arms around. UFC Vegas 69. People are going to be dressing up like Zach Pauga. It's going to be the whole thing. Can we talk about Zach Pauga and Jordan Wright is the co-main? Jordan Wright won in four in his last five and Zach Pauga lost the tough finale to Mohamed Usman. And so they were rewarded with a co-main event of a UFC card. I don't know why.

but at least it's light heavyweight you know Jordan right moving up Zach Palga moving down that at least gives it a little a little flare I mean there's the Lena Landsberg Meyer Boy and a Silva I've been waiting on that one for a while you got you got OSP on here too Ovin st. Peru uh Philippe Lenz yeah I mean there it is a fight night card before we get into that let's bounce back to last week UFC 284 which I had a blast I had a blast watching that card. That was a fantastic card in my opinion. I had a ton of fun watching it. I thought the main event delivered. I thought it was fun. You say, can we not? Have you been getting chirped? Have you been in the trenches having to battle on Twitter since Saturday night happened? Oh, I have, but I will be entirely friendly. Have I? Can we not has nothing to do with that actually? Okay. All right.

I got hammered in my bets. Yeah. I hate to hear that because I didn't do that well either. I didn't get hammered. I finished down like three units, but like... I finished down six. I had a night like that a couple weeks ago. He kind of sucks waking up the next morning.

Like you do all this research. You take all this time. You talk about it all week. And like most weeks, like this is not really one of those weeks. I'm keeping it tight. most weeks, like when I really hammer the research and I'm doing the tape study and I'm taking the time and the effort, I feel good about my slate going into it. Like, I'm like feeling like 75, 25, it's going to be a winning week. Like I'm just like, I.

Yeah, you got to beat out that confidence. I see the path to profit. Like I see the path to profit. And when it doesn't work out, oh, man, it's tough, dude. See, the thing is I didn't feel that way going in. Even everything last weekend, I just, I didn't. feel confident about almost any fight, any bet that I had down. And that really played out. The only bets I won, I can fly right unders, obviously.

I mean, they've never ever lost. It's the easiest bet in sports, people. It was so, there was just, it was a no doubter. So that was it. And then the Rodriguez parlay, which I was just a throw in gimmick and everything else just, and it, it, comical losses at some point. At some point, you got to just, all right, well, this is a date. take it on the chin. When Jack Della Madelana by K.O. Doesn't win because he goes for an R&C finish.

That's when you just know it wasn't your day. The amount of people that sent me Jack Della by sub-tickets, I was just like, what? How do y'all do this? How do y'all do this? Every time I try to get cute and take a long shot, it never hits. I'm just like, what in your brain? Like, oh yeah, I think he's going to hit him hard,

but he's not going to put him fully out, and then he's going to rear naked choke him. Like, it's just like, unbelievable calls, but like, yes. That's great effort. But, you know, you get just a whole bunch of insane things that happened in that card. And all of them, I was on the wrong end of the betting slip. Krupe Minifield somehow going to a drill nuts. I didn't know if you knew this, but Loma Lupon, me, established strikers somehow

throwing amplitude throws and getting subs. Like, it's just. Can we talk about how she just got beat up all round one and then comes out and it's just like, yeah, I'm done with this fight, just picks up Elise Reed, slams her down, and finishes her. And I had the over one and a half and I was just like, oh, that's, that's sick. Hell yeah. That's just unbelievable. It's like, all right, here are the things I'm the most confident will happen.

Jimmy Crew, Lonza Minfield, that ain't going to the cards. It goes to the car. Lomalu Bondmi, go into the car. Doesn't go to the cards. The fact that Loma Look Bumi got a finish. And Jimmy Krupe, Menafield did not, is really crazy, especially the way that that fight played out. There were so many times where it looked like someone was going to get finished.

Dude, it was just such a brutal betting weekend. And can I also talk like, 2023, it's like we're a month and a half in now, I guess only a month of actual betting in. It's like, I'm having a tough time getting out of the blocks here. And like, obviously, cold streaks happen in betting all the time. That's just something you have to learn to understand. You're going to go cold. and you're going to get hot again as long as you're doing the right things and you're being

smart about it. But hitting the cold streak at the start of a year when it feels like everything's kind of reset, it hurts a little bit more. It stings a little bit more. You start questioning yourself, you're seeing yourself in the red for the year. Don't love it. Looking forward to riding the ship. Yeah, I don't. I'm with you because I hadn't had a good year, but I'd been keeping my head above water. And then this past weekend's just like, hey, meet the red Jed. We're just done. But it's going to be Red Jed redemption this week. Oh, I love that. Red Dead Red Dead Redemption, baby. I love that. Coming back on a card. I will also say to address your previous point, I have been catching

in the teeth. We don't need to go into it. We don't want to get into it. No, because I don't, I don't want to scoreboard everybody because I got to say, I'm feeling pretty vindicated in my takes. You feel vindicated. I feel very vindicated. I heard you say a take that Islam was going to make it look easy. Oh, no, that was dead wrong. That was a thousand percent wrong. I didn't say that on this show.

I don't think. If I did, whatever, I was dead wrong in how that fight would play out. But in everything else, I feel pretty vindicated because, you know, the night of the event, Alex comes out and he says, you know, I could have done more. I don't have anybody to blame but myself. It's a good fight. Blah, blah, blah, blah. et cetera, like, that's just how it goes.

I'll be back. And that was a great way to handle it. And less than 48 hours later, it's, this dude's a cheater. I got to run it back. I don't really give a shit about fighting Yaira Rodriguez. And I'm just saying, I'm feeling okay about my takes coming into that fight outside of my prediction of the fight, which is all the way wrong. What is the take that you hate Volk and he's a crybaby?

It's not that he's a cry baby It's just that this is where he's He's doing this thing now That he spent most of his career coming up Going about it quote unquote the right way And he's I'm gonna put my nose to the grindstone And do all this and then he's taken The Connor McGregor-ish bend

Not in doing insane stuff And because he's by all means like a good person You know there's no accounts of him being like a terrible person But you know just live in that life now instead of wanting to do these things instead of the stuff that he came up saying i want to defend my belt a bunch and i want new challengers now it's now he's doing this chasing greatness just saying i like i like vote more now i love i've seen a lot of people say that i like i like him more now i like i mean just i just i just i just fuck with him that's that's

it's just as easy as that i just i like i all right here's something i will say the round four thing is like absolutely crazy. Like, Islam won that round. Like, if you just have to go and rewatch it, I don't know how you can make the argument for Volk. I did love him having Islam Makashchev, you know, having his whole back for minutes on end and him just like seeming to not really care about it. Like I, that was probably my favorite part of the whole fight. A lot of people have said that and that's, that has always been something I've hated. That is, this is not germane to him. The, the big thing that his prevented me from loving the Diaz brothers the way that other people do is that part of the game.

And it's not that they're talking shit because I love talking shit. It's that they're talking shit at the expense of doing better things. And it's, I do not look at that like, oh, that's boss. I look at that thinking, you're talking shit because you can't get out of that or you're not willing to do it. So, so shut up and make you happen. You're not getting out of that. You're not getting out of an Islamogership body triangle. You're certainly not if you're not. trying and I'm not here to say that Islam was doing all he could to finish the fight from there, but I'm not going to last straight up. I think the reason that Volk was talking so much shit is because how much shit Islam talked about how easy he was going to make it look and how he was like,

there's absolutely no question. I'm just going to submit this guy Australians can't wrestle for anything. Like I'm just going to go in and choke this dude out. And I think the fact that he didn't get choked out and like it never really even got close to it. There was one point where he had a neck prank like covering his mouth. Uh, I think like, I think like, Like Volk was proud in the fact of that. Like I think that was the main reason he was talking all the shit. He should be proud of it. But very realistically, he at least had an inkling because he did ask in his corner after the second round.

Have I lost two rounds? And they don't give him a definitive answer. But he knew that it was possible that he was down or that the fight was one, two, or, you know, him behind. And he's giving up that body triangle. He is a smart man. Nobody has ever questioned that. that is him losing the fight because he is choosing to do that instead of selling out to get out and that's that that's just the ballgame for me like that was i recognize why people love it but that

i have always that is always frustrated me whenever someone has done something similar and for you to then after the fact be like well i could have done more you could have but then you're lionizing that part and then you're walking it back and saying you definitely won three rounds which you super didn't it's all just we're here in this true. But you want to know, you want to know a little secret as well? What? I think I'm also a bigger Islam fan now, too. I always liked Islam. That's another thing. Islam dropped in my opinion, actually, this week.

I don't mind Islam. I like him. I kind of like the bus, the talking shit on the bus afterward, like saying like pound for pound, he's not number one. He's like, not surprised. Don't care. Yeah, like, I don't mind seeing guys look mortal. Like, I, I, like, actually appreciate. that fact. Like when Hamzad did it against Burns, just made me like Hamzat more. Yeah, I don't, I don't mind that Islamuq mortal at all. I do think that it is extremely tone deaf for that particular fight and be like, I'm the best fighter in the world, which it may be true. Like, it may still be true, right? Because Alexander Volkanovsky's at worst, the second best fighter in the world. But to come away, I won't say squeak because I think he very clearly won that fight, but to have a very tough fight when the large expectation was that you would not, that's just not the time to say that. And that feels it also felt tone deaf and

not great. But, you know, it's fine. Man, these expectations. That's how you get disappointed. You know, you never have any expectations. That's what leads to disappointment, you know. It is. But this is enough about that because nobody cares. Nobody cares. Nobody cares. Well, we're really, well, actually a ton of people care. That is the thing. They care more than this fight night. They definitely care more than this fight night car. But God, if you really want to get people to care, talk about the pound for pound rankings, which I am not going to do.

It is a strictly opinionated hypothetical situation. It's MJ LeBron. It's an argument that you can never get an answer to. And it just, like, it's nauseating, scrolling Twitter right now because that's all anyone is talking about. See, I'm okay with the talk. I don't, because I don't really care. The sports is supposed to be fun, and it's a fun thing. It's not fun.

The thing that bothers me, bothers maybe isn't the right word, is just like how hard the takes are. Oh, God. Because, like, my stance is very clear of, I think that this is number one or two, but, like, you could put five people at the top of a pound for pound list. And I would know is that they're like super sick fighters. And any time they fight, I'm going to tune in and I'm going to enjoy. it. Like, I just, these hypothetical arguments. And, like, the funniest part is, like, they're all arguing about this list that everyone seems to have a different definition of what it actually means. Nobody's working from the same set of circumstances. And, like, dude, it's, it's the MJ LeBron of MMA. Like, it gets people so hot, too. That is like, that's what I'm just like. The hot is the problem. If everybody else just like, I just don't care. All right. That is the main event. Yea Rodriguez. You mentioned them. Looked in. Incredible.

Unbelievable. I got to say. I know that we may not get it because the world is a crazy place right now, but sign me all the way up for Volcanovsky versus Yaira Rodriguez. I think that fight is a bang. I think I doubted Yair a little too much. He looked so good. He did. He may have leveled up.

And I know that this is a hot take. I think he can cause Volkanowski some real problems. I really want to see that fight a lot. The size. He's five. I have 11. And he rips nasty body kicks. And Islam kept landing body kicks on bulk.

And I got to say, Yair kicks better than Islam. Not just the body kicks and the diversity and the striking. Just the relentlessness of Yaira Yer Rodriguez. Guy ain't going nowhere. Dude, Josh Emmett didn't get to take a second off. He tried to get up in the clinch. Yair is just raining elbows down on his head. He gets on the ground.

Yeah, he's doing that thing where he fully stretches his body out just to land an elbow and he's 5-11, so like, it's just impossible. He's like, bro, you're not chilling. There is no time off. There is no lay and pray with me. Like, I mean, I was, like, actually, like, low-key blown away with how good, yeah, you looked. Because, like, the way the weirdness of all his latest matchups have gone, like the Ortega

fight, the last second against zombie, like, uh, the Jeremy Stevens, no contest. Like, it's just like, it's been weird lately. He's had a weird career. That was like a, yo, I'm here. And, like, I'm, I'm. ready to go. I have leveled up. Yeah. I think that there's a real possibility that in a couple of years we look back on that Max Holloway fight and we're like, that was the moment Yair really started to arrive. And that was

the last of Max. Because I think there is a very much a story where in the coming years where Max won the battle, but lost the war that night. Because I, I, I, there's a real possibility max has taken too much and that that fight had a lot to do with it and yair is just just ascending so i i could not be more into that featherway fight you talk about vogue being a huge underdog and like showing out as like a plus 300 i'm pretty sure holloway was like a minus 750 in that yaiyr Rodriguez fight he was in monster monster favorite that wouldn't shock me at all let me look that up because that was uh it would that would totally makes sense because that's max being max and yai year at the time was yeah max is a minus 720 it's

looking like so i mean absolutely insane uh ufc 284 all in all australian crowd showed out i had a great time watching it electric only way it could have been better is if i if i had won my bets which is why we're here uh but it'll come marshall's buyers travel far and wide hustling for great deals on amazing gifts so you don't have to they've bagged this season's Italian leather handbags. Designer. Hand-picked the finest sweaters from the rest. Ooh, cashmere.

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Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. It'll come. Just got to stay the course. Just got to keep doing what we're doing. Just tough that it aligns with the beginning of the year. All right, let's get

into this. UFC Vegas 69. Andrage stepping in for Tyler Santos, taking on Aaron Blanchfield. That is our new main event. And right now, you can have Jessica Andrage for minus 150 Aaron Blanchfield coming back at plus

130. How do you feel about this line? 30. Was this what you were expecting? It's moving in the way of Aaron Blanchfield, and I'm not going to lie. First, right off rip, I was like, I'm about to play Jessica Androche. I have still not played her, and I'm seeing at some other books, minus 135, and I don't know if I wait on this now

or if this is the time to strike, but I am personally going to be playing Jessica Androch. So I'm going to be playing Jessica Androch. as well, so we're in lock. I think now is probably about the time. I doubt it gets that much closer. Minus 135 feels like that's probably as tight as it gets, but I also don't think it will move that much further away

if you want to wait some time. I think we're settling into a round. And I got to say, I was really surprised. I came into this, before I looked at the odds, I was very ready to bet Aaron Blanchfield because I assumed Jessica and Dragge would be a much bigger favorite. But I think the books have got this pretty close to write. I think the public has helped them get maybe to where there's a little bit of favor on Androge.

But this fight, I think, is a lot closer than I thought just at first look. You know, I've been incredibly high on Aaron Blanchfield, incredibly high. I think it is not a matter of if it is when she will win a title. She is only 23 years old, and I don't think she would fare all that well against Finch. Valentina Shepchenko at the moment, but in a few years, maybe Valentino falls off. Maybe she just retires. I think Blanchefield is the woman waiting in the wings to own 125. Jessica Andraj is, she's, she's her, you know what I'm saying? Man, she is her. She is a monster, literally. That is, I mean that literally. She is an absolute beast.

She has one of my favorite nicknames in all of MMA. Pile Driver is just an incredible nickname, especially for her. I didn't know that was her, I didn't even know that was her nickname. It's Bata Astaka. Oh, and in Portuguese, which is Pile Driver. And just rule. It's just like the most insane and cool nickname.

And it fits her so well, too. It's just like, yeah, a woman will just pile drive you right through the mat. I have very big questions about what the short notice does to this fight. Because when we have seen Andrudge Fulter, it's because someone is able to match her physicality and a lot of, you know, get some grappling game going. And I don't know that Aaron Blanchfield can totally match her physicality because there are like three women alive who can. But she's obviously an excellent wrestler and grappler. and so if she can score one takedown in the first round,

how will Androja's cardio hold up if this fight has to go a little longer as opposed to her getting to just tee off like she did against Lauren Murphy? I have no idea, but I am ultimately still favor. She's a much better striker, much more power on the future. I mean, like the disparity in striking, in my opinion, is larger than the disparity in grappling. Yes. And you start the round every single time on the field.

obviously. That's clear. Like, going back and watching the JJ Aldrich fight, like she was having some issues and she wasn't able to get the takedowns and she was somewhat struggling in that fight. And I think the difference between J.J. Aldrich and Jescon Drogh is large. I mean, I just, I backed Jeskandrodge against Lauren Murphy. I unfortunately had the under in that one too. I just really the only thing that would stop me from playing.

on Drogh is the short notice. I mean, I just can't come off of that. Dude, it is concerning. You talk about a masterclass. That is what Jess Conrodge put on against Lauren. Like, it was like it was an absolute masterclass. The short notice, yes.

I mean, I guess really the only issue she would have is her hands hurting from landing 230 plus significant strikes on Lauren Murphy. I would figure she's going to be in shape. How good of shape you know that's that's where like because the thing is that's that's where all the way out of shape certainly

but no shot no shot i mean she just fought like less than four weeks ago um that's that's really the only thing that i see being a concern here like if blanchefield is able to just chain wrestle and get her down and hold her down and and just work from there uh then yeah this is going to spell trouble for and drotch but if blanchefield like say we're going into round two and blanchefield is 0 for 3 on takedowns. Well, it's fights over. Fights. Fights cashed.

Like, Jess Conradge is going to just mall her. Yeah, at this close price, what do you think this is lined at if it's not short notice? So I came into this thinking that Androge would be like a minus 300 favorite, just because she's on Drudge, which is why. And I thought that that number would be wrong, like, but I just thought that that's where we'd start. I think that this probably should be minus 225 and Drudge, minus 250 and Drudge. The other, I do also, I always factor in young fighters and growth and Blanchfield's 23 and that she fought in November. You can make enormous strides when you're very talented and that young in that. So like she could be an entirely different fighter and I always want to at least give that.

some credence but i think minus two 250 like minus 225ish feels where this would be if this were a normal fight established you know i mean that that's another thing man is Aaron blenchfield is very young she is only 23 years old and like jesscon drudge is not molly mccan like you know she's not she's not much better than molly mccan uh yeah i mean it's the classic argument like who is androge lost to in the last six years and it's it's title holders it's joanna it's way lee it's rose uh and valentina and honestly like there's only been few and far between that have had like a ton of grappling success i mean if you're going to point at someone it's going to be the valentina shepchenko fight i mean that was just domination the only real person who's done anything like that in 10 years

yeah i was going to say 10 years ago at bantamweight against liz car moose she landed you know three takedowns on her when she was undersized and just getting started in the UFC. Like, I mean, if Aaron Blanchfield is able to have the same successes as Valentina Shevchenko, I mean, everything you just said earlier about Blanchfield being the future of 25 for the women is going to be true. I mean, this could be a huge moment for Aaron Blanchfield if she's able to pull this off. But how impressive Jessica Andraj has looked lately and just the veteran experience that she has and the striking differential,

the striking disparity in skill, I will be backing chess gun and draw chair. I mean, this, I, same. I don't think it's 100% this, like, it could be super close, but this could be one of those bets looking back

that like, if Blanchefield just comes out and just like, is just chain wrestling, getting her on the mat, every single round after round ends up, maybe like finishing her in the third or something. It's just like, dude, yeah,

she's the future. It was, it was Jessica and Drodge on short. notice, like, of course you got it done. Or, like, maybe it's just a veteran lesson from Androge. Like, I could see this one being, like, one where you look back, you're like, oh, that was a little bit more obvious than we realized. I think, see, I think if it looks like that, it's just because Jessica and Drogge just blows

her doors off. There's a lot of Blanchefield love, man. There is. There was also a lot of love. There was a ton of love to get her in as a future ticket. I know a lot of people that took Blanchefield to be champ at the end of the year. Yeah. I never, I understand why that story happened, but not me, not me.

Oh, I do. I'm not holding one. My other side in this is just that if Blanchfield comes out and looks like the future, I won't feel bad at all about this bet. Whereas if I bet on Blanchfield and a drudge comes out and Lauren Murphy's error, I took Lauren Murphy and let me tell you, I felt like a total jackass. And so if Blanchfield comes out and wins, I won't feel like a jackass. but if I bet on Blanchfield

that she gets Lord Murphy I'm going to feel like a jackass again so an emotional hedge here maybe but give me Jessica and Draj in the one good fight on the card yeah I mean that's pretty much it we can go ahead and wrap up we'll see you guys next week

for UFC Vegas 70 the return of Tatiana Suarez only kidding we get to go to the second fight on the card now the co-main event of the evening it is Zach Pauga taking on the Beverly Hills Ninja Jordan Wright. Right now you can have Zach Pauga coming off of the tough finale loss.

Minus 275 Jordan Wright coming back at plus 230. The only bet I have on this is parlayed up the under two and a half because Jordan Wright doesn't know what a decision is. I mean, he doesn't even know what a third round is. I don't care how many decisions, Zach Pauke. has been to. The way that Jordan Wright fights is to get a finish or get finished, and most of the time it happens in the first round. Some people, maybe he goes to the wrestling. I don't think he's going to have much success there. I mentioned it earlier. He's moving up to 205. Zach Pauga's moving down to

205. Just don't think he's going to be able to have the success there. I think it's a little bit more live than the odds suggest. Like, I mean, like, yes, the way that he fights is to go out and get finished, but the guys that are finishing him are like pretty dangerous. Bruno Silva, killer, walking Buckley, killer. I mean, the Duskos and the Mab's. Like, these are dangerous guys. Zach Pauaga at heavyweight has, you know,

if you count the tough fight, he has two finishes in his whole career and one of them was against one-in-one Ashby, Thomas. Shout out to him. I mean, his topology picture looks like a high school football player after practice at a Zaxby's or something. So yeah,

Now I have to look that. I mean, I just don't know if like the, I mean, tell me it doesn't look like it. Maybe like a C.C.'s of sweet tomatoes. Maybe, you know, like he just got done with football practice. Oh, wow. That actually might be a C.C.'s pizza. Like, I feel like he just crushed like eight slices of pizza after JV. Practice.

Yeah. Sophomore in high school. I mean, I don't even know where they got this picture. Okay. Long story short, I'm not betting him just because I can't. I have principles. I have morals. I can't bet him, but like don't hate like a Jordan Wright round one plus 500.

Like, don't hate that. Yeah, that's actually fine. I'm also now stuck that Ashby Thomas is the only other fight he had professionally was against a man named Awesome Thurman. Oh, yeah. I mean, if we really want to dive deep, I went way too deep in Ashby Thomas's. Because the thing about topology, it's like a maze. You can just keep going and keep going. one thing leads to the other and suddenly you're on awesome thermon's topology page

trying to find out why he ever could have happened if he had been a good fighter man awesome thurman uh i'm glad to hear you say all this i don't have a bet down because uh after getting absolutely blitz last weekend by the amazing makes tight enough makes tight enough like you know on this really awful fight card that i'm going to be honest i am not going to be invested to do all of the work that the due diligence here. Well, can we be honest, too? Like, you got to just be careful here. Like, just be chill.

We got UFC 285. And by the time this card's happening, it'll just be two weeks away. Like, just be chill. We'll have a lot more data points on most of those fighters going to do here. God. But I did, I did consider throwing a bet on Jordan, right, for all the things you said. Just, if you are taking Zach Pauga as a parley piece or straight, you are both. older man than I, and I hope that you know something, because Lord knows I would not be laying

that lumber on that man there. So that's all I have to say on this fight. Yeah, I mean, that's the name of the game. It's keep it rolling this week because that's what we're going to do. We move on to a heavyweight fight. A heavyweight fight for you, for you. You know what I'm doing, baby. This is a good one to do it. Josh Parisian taking on Jamal Pogues. Right now you can have Jamal for the underdog for the favorite price of minus 245. Josh Parisian coming back at plus 205 over under, set of two and a half, over minus 146, under plus 116.

I mean, the way that I see it, like it feels like Jamal should just wrestle him to death. Like, I mean, he got seven takedowns in his first Condender Series fight. Didn't get a contract. So I think that's why he didn't wrestle as much the second time around. Yeah. And Josh Parijian, like 42. 2% take down defense got ragdled by Dantel Mays. Like, I just, I mean, the path to victory for Jamal is right there.

But with all that said, am I laying minus 245 on a low-level heavyweight fight on Jamal Poggs? Absolutely not. I think that that is the smart answer. Okay, thank you. I'm not laying money on Jamal Pogs, though I do actually think he is a perfectly fine parlay piece uh i think he i think he should win i think this line is closer than it probably should be uh but again tightening things up a little bit just trying to be a little bit more

responsible here i'm trying not to get out over my skis and you know i'm going to have a bet on this fight already so i don't want to have a fight i don't want to have this bad heavyweight fight where i could lose double action where josh phrysing gets like a second round knockout out of nowhere And then I'm just like, what the hell is going on in my life that I'm in this position? So I've just taken the over two and a half minus 145. And I feel pretty honestly feel okay about the action here just because Pog comes out, you know, wrestled the crap out of him. This fight is probably not getting finished.

And if there's a finish, it's going to be from Parisian, I think. And it's hard to knock somebody out if you're laying flat on your back. So taking the over, don't need to expose myself to more action. There it is. The most electric bed in sports, baby. The most electric bed in sports, flowering unders are the safest bet in sports. Safe as bed in sports. The lock of all locks.

Heavyweight overs are not the most safe bed in sports. We get to talk about one later on. Let's keep it rolling. It is a light heavyweight bout, William Knight. Pride of Connecticut now that Parker Porter has gone by the wayside, William Knight, the pride of the 860, taking on Marcine. What could have been, Parker Porter. What could have been? Almost. He was close.

Marcine Pragneau minus 105. William Knight minus 115. I mean, dude, if you're laying it down on this one, I really sincerely hope that you know something. I mean, this is just a coin flip of all coin flips. What are we going to get here? You have the boulder in William Knight, just the biggest man in the UFC taking on. Looks good getting all the guys. Talk about guys that look good getting off the bus.

Talk about a dude that looks like he's just going to go in there and lay his opponent out flat every time. That is William Knight. Taking on a man that gave Sam Alvey one of his final wins in Marcyne Plagno got starched. I mean, theoretically, like it feels like it's just like William Knight should just come in here, find the chin of Marcyneur.

And that should be it. Like, it's like Marcyneuxi, I think he has four losses by knockout in the UFC. And William Knight is a very strong man who has been known to knock people out. For that reason, though, yeah, I'm just not playing this. I just have no interest in this. This is just, if I lose a bet on this fight, I'll be pissed. That's all I can say. If I lose a bet, I will be very angry.

And if I win a bet, I'll just, like, at best, feel kind of dirty. that's a reasonable way to approach this but I'm making a bet on this one oh yeah I've gone ahead and done it because I can't disagree with your feelings frankly they're they're all very just but I refuse to believe in a man who lost to Sam Alvey uh you can't right moreover on top of that William Knight should be able to just knock his head off. That's kind of what you think, right? Also, if he does it, Prokneau gave him freaking a million takedowns to Felipe Lins. Dude, and William Knight's a serious man when it comes to that department.

Yeah, he is a power finisher on his wrestling, so it's just like he can get him coming or going. Now, if William Knight totally gasses himself out in the first seven minutes and loses, I might feel like an idiot. but I he's only minus 115 and it feels like he should at least be minus 200 in this fight so uh I I'm being I'm gonna take a shot here because why not because why not I mean that's that's that's pretty much uh that's that's all there is to be said at this point um you know as I uh check my email to try and make sure that I actually booked this studio I'm getting kind of nervous

getting kind of nervous that I didn't. I at least I made it to the checkout point. But yeah, a couple of people just came in here looking at me. I'm going to assume that I did and that I'm good, but fingers crossed. I'll probably get a talk into afterwards, you know, this high-tech studio here. Let's keep it rolling, though. I'm going to forget about that until post-show and say some apologies after. Don't worry, post-show is going to be in like 10 minutes.

Yeah, we're coming down the stretch here, folks. Stick around flyweight unders and a little box. action. If you're into that, yeah, I had to get real DeGenzo to try and get some action done this weekend. But you talk about the genzo. This is what I came here for. This is the only reason I even showed up this morning because it's a lightweight bout to finish off the main card. They actually open up the main card. Jim Miller taking on Alexander Hernandez. Right now, you can have short notice. Alexander Hernandez at minus 225. Jim Miller coming back at plus 190. I just said it. Notice, Alex Hernandez, moving up, back up to lightweight, after moving down to Featherweight

where he got finished by Billy Quarantillo. Pretty much there's two ways this fight plays out. Alex Hernandez comes out, looks good in the first round, which is almost a guarantee. That's just like we almost positively know that's going to happen. And he finishes Jim Miller or Jim Miller survives the first round and then Alex Hernandez completely falls off a cliff and Alex Hernandez gets finished in round two. No notes.

I mean, that's what his last three years have looked like. I mean, four of his six UFC wins, first round finish. Four of his five UFC losses, getting finished in the second round. Like, it's just kind of the map at this point for Alex Hernandez's fights. Like, he either gets it done in the first round or he gets done in the second. And I just want to point this out. Jim Miller is a junkyard dog. I just have to say that.

Just flat out, dude's a dog. Second of all, he is coming in on a full camp. Alex Hernandez, like, this is a very short-notice. That cannot go unnoticed. He also hasn't been finished since the Charles Olivera fight almost five years and nine fights ago. And then last but not least, last but not least. A lot of people like to talk about third.

round, Jordan. Oh my goodness. Alex Hernandez. Second round, Hernandez, is becoming a little bit of a mythical creature himself, getting finished, four of his five losses, getting finished in the second round. Jim Miller,

don't know if you've looked at the old topology page. Sure have. Three straight wins. My second round finish. For that reason, I'm going Jim Miller inside the distance, plus 333, and then a little sprinkle. Jim Miller

Round 2 Jim Miller Plus 1100 Oh plus 3 Plus that's got to be four figures Plus 1100 No notes This is fantastic

Love everything about it I I let my heart Lead me on this one And my heart said That you should never trust Alexander Hernandez I do not have an inside the distance

For Jim Miller bet Because he's already A plus 190 as an underdog and I was just like, full camp, if he can survive one round against Alexander Hernandez, who is dangerous, but also seems to have a mental block

about succeeding. Then this ball game just goes real different after that first round. So I just took Jim Miller plus 190. You know, I didn't go for the finish, just took him straight at the underdog price. Love it. But I mean, the fact that we're cousins here.

We're some, Hot-a-coded bets. This is what we need. This is what we need because this is where things get really fun. There's this, there's the world where Alex Hernandez just comes out here and finishes Jim Miller in the first round. And it's sad and a legend going down like that. And both the bets lose. And it's just like, man, that was rough.

Then there's a world where Jim Miller starts finding a little bit of success in that last 45 seconds of round one. And it's like, okay, we're feeling pretty good. And we enter round two. Because those, however long it lasts, maybe it goes the whole time. maybe it doesn't. Those five minutes in that second round. Electric. Going to be pure nirvana.

It's going to be pure nirvana. Because it's like, if you see Alex Hernandez suffering on that stool, because a lot of the reason he gasses out might not be in the best shape. Can't imagine he's in the greatest shape coming in on short notice right now, having to move back up to 155. I'm, oh, that's what I'm living for. This whole weekend is to live for that fight to get to round two. Because I'm talking,

Nirvana. That's where you're where you're working in that that Goldilog zone of pure ecstasy. There's also a real possibility. Like I sometimes try and put my head, my mind and like where the fighter's head's at to be like, Jessica and Drogh wouldn't have taken this Blanchfield fight if she wasn't in good shape, right? Like if she wasn't still feeling fresh. No doubt. No. And then I'm just like, Alexander Hernandez would a thousand percent take this short notice fight because it's like, I'm going to knock out that old dude. And then he comes in and he doesn't have the gas for it. I mean, another argument to make, and I don't know how Alex Hernandez

thinks, but like very competitive people want to get it back. It's like, damn, I got finished my last two fights. I need to bounce back. They're giving me this 40-year-old old dude. All right, let's go bounce back. Where like, Jessica And Drogh coming off of just like an unbelievable performance, and maybe she's just like, I'm

untouchable at this point. Yeah, give me Blanchfield. I don't care. I mean, too tough to delve into the minds of them, but... I love armchair psychology. It's one of my favorite parts of the sport. This is this is the fight I'm most looking forward to. I'm not laying a ton. I'm going half a unit on inside the distance and a quarter unit on round two.

But that's all I'm living for. I mean, my heart's beaten for round two of Jim Miller, Alexander Hernandez on Saturday. I'll tell you that much. I'm going to be honest. I'm probably going to follow you with a little flyer on the round two. You sold it so well.

It's such a compelling argument. Listen. I don't want to miss that train. I rarely. I'll regret it forever. You got to go, listen. When you place that bet, I want you to, right before you place it, tuck that money in, give it a kiss on the forehead, and tell it goodbye, because you're probably never going to see it again. Shoot that off into space, shoot it off to Pluto, and just have that expectation that it's going to lose.

But we're going to live, we're going to live just in the back of our mind with that little glimmer of hope, that little glimmer that it's just like, what if it does it? What if Jimmy am at the ripe age of 45, 49, 50? Is he 50 now? I don't even know how old he is at this point. What if he pulls it off? What if he pulls off a damn miracle and he becomes a hero? Because that's all I'm living for at this point. I'm just living to have my heroes let me down. Parker Porter, he had a chance. He had a chance. And I had to see Superman get slain on Saturday night on a live stream, on a live broadcast. I had to watch Superman get slain. Jim Miller? That's our new hero. For these cards, you've got to build the drama. You've got to build it yourself. The UFC isn't doing it for us. So I'm going to do it myself. Thank you very much.

Jimmy M. Big Jim M. Big J.M. Round two, Jim Miller. Round two Alex Hernandez. Different ends of spectrum. Have to see it. I mean, that's Alexander Hernandez getting a finish in the first round

be the most disappointing thing that I've ever experienced in my life to this point. It would be pretty tough. And that's the main cause. Hi, I'm Sophia Loper Caro, host of the Before the Chorus podcast. We dive into the life experiences behind the music we love. Artists of all genres are welcome, and I've been joined by some pretty amazing folks, like Glass Animals. I guess that was the idea, was to try something personal and see what happened.

And Japanese breakfast. I thought that the most surprising thing I could offer was an album about joy. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts. Oh, and remember, so much happens before the chorus. Simons, insuffles the magic, in your time of the ftestes. Millie unies of gift of gift,

for your decorer sanchot, and the boasts and the boasts and the box vets are psalmere, a other pyjama to knowel to enfile.

The most merveeous period of the year, it's the main card, let's kick off the prelims.

You want to talk about this fight, I guess, for some reason. Lena Lansberg taking on Myra Buena Silva

and a women's bandim way bowed, and Meyer Buena Silva is a disgustingly large favorite. Minus 460 taken on Lena Landsberg plus 370. The floor is yours, my man. Look, it's important to talk about this fight, Connor,

because it's a women's band-and-weight fight, and they are more rare than unicorns, than the abominable snowman. They just don't happen. We get, like, four of these a year. And so you've got to talk about it, because by definition of this being a women's ban and weight fight, Both women are ranked because that's, you don't ever get ranked fights in any other division except for women's bandway.

Every one of them is a ranked fight. And Lena Landsberg is pretty bad. Like, let's just call it what it is. She's not very good at the whole fist fighting game. She's lost her last three in a row. She has a very strange win that she beat Macy Chason. And then that's really all that can be said about her UFC career. My brain of silver, though, she's not what we'd call great, but she is pretty good.

You know, the one recent loss here is to Manofiore. Your woman, Manofi. And the rest of it, she's looked pretty good. She's a solid grappler. She's active on the feet. I just think she wins this fight everywhere it goes. Landsberg is maybe more technical, but it just is where it is. So I just have her as an open parlay piece.

I had nothing to parlay her with. Um, but I just think that Lina Lansberg's pretty bad. So I'm fading her with an open parlor. I don't think that's a bad idea. I don't think it's a bad idea. And there's a world where this just gets taken to the Matt and Meyer point of silver. Yeah. Immediately arms, arm bars her.

Yeah. I mean, that could definitely happen. Yeah. I, uh, I considered that, but the line is plus 175 for a sub prop. And I'd like it to be a little higher. So, uh, all right. Sweet. Uh, if you're wondering if we're going to talk about Nazim Sadikov versus Evan Elder,

the answer is no. I'm just not having any action there. I think Nizim's going to win, but I just... I would bet Nizim if that was the case. That's what I would do if I had to put in that. If I had two places, then it would be Nizim, but I don't have to. Yeah, exactly. That's what we got to remember.

We don't have to. Evan Elder, he got crushed by Preston Parsons, but, like, showed he got some dog in him. Show he got some fight at least. So, yeah, I am staying away from that one. Next up, though, this is a very interesting one in the featherweight division. It is Jamal Emmer's taking on. Kashin, Ascabov,

Ascabov, 23 and O against, you know, Uber drivers, but he still, he is 23 and O. It's hard to get 23 and O against Uber drivers. Doesn't matter. You are correct with that. You are correct with that. Jamal Emmer's opened up plus 130 all the way down to plus 110. Ashkabov coming back at minus 130.

There were some books where Emers opened at plus 200. Tell me what you're thinking here. Like I, Jamal Emers, you talk about darling dogs, Jamal Emers is that this week. Everyone in their grandmothers seems to be on Jamal Emmer's. So I am not betting this straight, though I do frankly think, I love to zig when people are zagging.

The darling dog thing, I don't, whenever that becomes a narrative, I largely want to be like, Sportsbooks always wins. Let's go the other way, Vegas. Folks always wins. You notice that Vegas. doesn't have a bunch of one level shacks running in it because they know what they're doing. In general, also, if you get an opportunity to bet a 23 and O guy, I don't care if it's over Uber

drivers or my mom, it's 23 and O, that's a hard thing to pull off in any regard. And you're getting him at the price of minus 130 right now. That's certainly tempting, certainly tempting. But I wanted to have a little more fun with this one. Not a lot of science behind it, except for to say, Jamal Emmer's, Pat Sabatini, heel hook loss. Guess who has two heel hook wins on the old resume? Askev. I mean, he also has two flying knees, but man, man knows his way to grapple, can get some subs. Emmer's is a very good, is a very solid fighter, but I just decided it It would be fun to see if we can do back-to-back heel-hook losses. So I took Ashkabov at plus 400.

So we're clear, if there was an Ashkabov by heel hook, I would have just bet that instead of Ashkov by submission. Shout out to the guy that took Yeir Rodriguez by Triangle Choke in round two plus 15,000 last week. That was one of the most outrageous. That's a fantastic bet. I mean, in retrospect, it is a fantastic bet. Draft Kings needs to give me sub-specific props. Yeah,

a lot of the offshore books have it. Bet MGM has it. I want to say I've seen Sears has it. Yeah, draft kings needs to get on the horn with that one. I would for a thousand percent be betting the heel hook bet just for Fonzie's this week. Yeah, I don't know, dude. Like, I'm kind of wanting to do the route where, where I just play contrarian.

Like, I mean, another thing that you have to talk about, like Ashbaugh hasn't fought in three years. It's a long time. Like, I get why people are on Emers. Like, if I played Ashgabov... Also, so we're clear, he has spent most of his career at Banimait, too. You know, it's... There are a number of reasons for him for Emers to be the darling dog.

Yeah, I agree. But I'm just not in on it. I don't know. I'm definitely not taking emmers. I'm like, I'm thinking of just saying, screw it and playing Ashwab. Like maybe I just put down like,

maybe just one unit flat. We were talking about how smart we were. We were being so smart. And now we're talking about taking Ashkab. I'm going to keep sitting on it. If Ashkabab, like I need a price point. If Ashkabob gets to minus 115,

I think I'm going to play it. Just to minus, if he gets to close to even, money in that regard it it's really hard not just to spite no it's 23 and no car i want to do it just to spite the public like that's that's what i want to do like everyone that i know is playing jamaul emmers i will say this is only 28 like he's only 28 like he could do you know this is exactly the fight you're talking earlier about how you might

feel like an idiot on on monday morning it's like oh should have seen that coming either way it's like oh the 23 and no guy beat jamaul emmers should have seen that coming yeah yeah oh the guy who's beaten uber drivers lost when he moved up a weight class fought for the first time in three years and fought somebody who wasn't an uber driver either way it's going to be really apparent what should have happened after the fact yeah i think so too i mean i like most of these guys don't even have tapology pictures uh a lot of them end their careers after after fighting ashwob Does that just say how good he is. He is a career ender.

His nickname should be the career ender. I think we're naming him the career ender right now. Maybe he ends Jamal Emmer's career, you know? No bet for me just yet. Nothing yet. But yeah, there's a chance that I just stare the public down and just say, yeah, I'm going to go the exact opposite just despite you guys. I love it.

And we have two more fights to talk about. And that's it. And that's how we're going to get through this. I'm going to tell you our next one, it's a real quick breakdown for me. Okay, great. Ovenson, Prue, taking on Philippe Lenz.

Right now you can have OSP plus 185, Philippe Lens, minus 215. And you talk about tapologies. Felipe Lens has a beautiful one. OSP canceled, Grisham canceled, Procgneal win, and then Merzeghanov canceled OSP, canceled, Rothwell, canceled,

Rothwell, canceled, Rothwell, canceled, Tantorov. knocked him out in the first round. It's just a thing of beauty. It's a thing of beauty, the amount of gray this guy has on his topology. OSP is so far gone at this point, 39 years old. Tell me what you have here, my man.

Well, one, I'm just glad we finally get this matchup. They've been trying to book it for years. We've been waiting, finally getting it. The breakdown is very simple. This fight is to be contested. at light heavyweight. That is the official stance is that this will be a light heavyweight fight. This is a spiritual heavyweight fight.

OSP has been bouncing back and forth. Can't really figure it out. Honestly, might miss weight. Missed weight the last time I think he was fighting light heavyweight against Jamal Hill. You know, he's just, who knows? And Philippa Ville's former PFL heavyweight champion, this, you know, just returned to light heavyweight in his last fight against Marcy Prokneo. It's a spiritual heavyweight fight, and so I have decided to take the over two and a half to stay in that spirit minus 125.

I'm just expecting a greasy, ugly, just gross fight that lasts 15 awful minutes. That's what you're going to get, man. That's what you're going to get. So, yeah, there's that. And that's that. We will keep it moving. Speaking of that's that. Do we need to say it?

Do we even need to talk to it? Let me just mention the AJ Fletcher fight. I got really close to playing AJ Fletcher against Thimba Garimbo. But then I was like, this guy's O and 2 in the UFC's at a 10-inch reach disadvantage. And he's minus 260. I'm just going to pass on that. So that's what I did there. And let's get to the last fight on the card.

It is a flyweight bout. Flyweight. Flyweight bout. Is that 125 pounds? And under? 125. One Camillo Ronderos, sticking on Clayton Carpenter. Right now you can get Clayton Carpenter.

4-minus 285. One Camillo Ronderos coming back at plus 240. Over under. Set of two and a half. Under minus 160 over plus 135. Yeah, I mean, I don't really know what you want from me. The books are wising up, giving us minus one. money on these guys, but I took it minus 160, cool with it, happy with it, can't wait for

Carpenter to choke them out. I got to say, it's the most comforting feeling in the world to know that I'm going to start my night off with a win, you know, I already know that this money's in the bank, I can go ahead and spend it. It's as guaranteed as it gets, and then the rest of the bets are where the risk comes into play. Yeah, I mean, it's fantastic. The guy. I started out last week with two losses, and then Cletson Rodriguez comes up.

And I'm just like, man, I got two bets down on this. I really need to bounce back. I need Cletson and I need the under. Within 45 seconds, I had both. Immediately. Greened out. Greened out, just like that. So yeah, shout out to the flyway. It's a beautiful thing. I'm going for another double hitter. I got Clayton Carbenter in the parlay with Palgar Wright under 2 and a half.

That pays out at minus 137. Yeah, I mean, I just think Carpenter is just the overall better fighter. I think he's the better striker, the better grappler, bigger guy, has the higher finishing potential. I just think this is a good matchup for him. So I do think he gets it done. And that's that.

That's UFC Vegas 69. I've done it. Under an hour, baby. Under an hour. I'll leave you with this. Two quick boxing bets. The Lee Wood, Maricio Lara fight. Big time stuff going down to Niam England this weekend.

featherweight championship on the line, the WBA Bell. What I'm taking, Lee Wood to get knocked down minus 102, took that guy on Fandle. Marisa Lora has six knockdowns in his last three fights. Wood got knocked down last time out. I expect these two to come out and slug. I expect Lee Wood to get knocked down. And then I took a little flyer, the fight to end in round seven through 12 plus 220, championship level fight.

Last time Lara was here, took him until the ninth round. Lee Wood, last five wins, all of them by K. came in rounds nine or later. So that's that. Those are my two bets. Had to get a little extra down just because of the weakness of this UFC card. And I'm ready to roll. Six singles, nice, easy, hopefully clean, and one parlay.

That's all I got. I have six singles. I have the seven if I add the Jim Miller round two. You're going to have to add it. You're going to have to add that. We've talked a lot about regret and how we'll feel like idiots. nothing would make me more unhappy than if we get back here next week

and you're like, Jim Miller, round two, baby. And I'm like, I didn't bet it. I stayed away because I'm a coward. And now I can't, my kids can't go to college because I didn't bet Jim Miller round two or plus thousand. So got to do it. If Jim Miller, like, I'm starting to have dreams.

I'm starting to have visions of Jim Miller finishing this fighting round two. Oh, it'd be a beautiful thing. It'd be a beautiful thing. I just at least get me there. At least get me to round two and let me experience that. At least get to round two and get like the back. Just let me really feel something.

I just like get to feel alive. Just like wobble them. Like if I see if I see Alexander and Anna's like just even like his knee buckle and like he like bounces up on against the fence. But all I'm asking for, all I'm asking for is for them to get off the stools and meet in the center of the cage in round two. Because that's that's where we'll really start living. you know, that's where we're getting on the borderline of heaven at that point. We'll be really operating at a high level. I'm excited. I can't wait for it.

It's going to make this card fun. It's going to make it fun. Damn right. It's going to make it fun. That is UFC Vegas 69. Nice, clean, easy, hour-long episode. Next week, we are back. UFC Vegas 70. Ryan Span, Nikita Krilov.

More importantly, the return of Tatiana Suarez, and future 85 champions. Andre Monez, getting back in the Octagon. Cannot wait for those. Enjoy the weekend. Enjoy yourselves. See you next week. Love you guys.

The Vox Media Podcast Network.