MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Jiri Prochazka Or Carlos Ulberg Leave UFC 327 As The New Light Heavyweight Champ?

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

Jiri Prochazka is once again challenging for the light heavyweight title. This Saturday, the UFC returns to Miami for UFC 327, headlined by a fight for the vacant light heavyweight title between Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg. With Alex Pereira off to heavyweight, Prochakza and Ulberg both have the opportunity to establish themselves as the face of 205 pounds, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Luke Noseda of Morning Kombat and Main Card Minute to dive into all things UFC 327. Topics discussed include which light heavyweight will walk away with gold on Saturday, the new co-main event bout between Azamat Murzakanov and Paulo Costa, Josh Hokit's opportunity to make a big jump, Cub Swanson's retirement, the newest version of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 153 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When West Jet first took flight in 1996, the vibes were a bit different. People thought denim on denim was peak fashion, inline skates were everywhere, and two out of three women rocked, the Rachel. While those things stayed in the 90s, one thing that hasn't is that fuzzy feeling you get when WestJet welcomes you on board. Here's to Westjetting since 96. Travel back in time with us and actually travel with us at westjet.com slash 30 years. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all?

We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard, and it is. is pay-per-view weekend, ladies and gentlemen. I don't know what that was. Don't worry about it. Moving on, UFC 327, the best card of the year. Some people are saying, people are claiming. Maybe I'm one of them. I think it's certainly the best card so far, though we did take a hit this past weekend

as the co-main event got bumped to Newark, up in my guest's neck of the woods, frankly, because joining me this week to talk UFC 327. You know him by now. He joins for almost every one of the pay-per-views. He's a man I will be seeing. What's that going to be about 15 hours? I'm not a math guy.

Like 16, 17 hours from the time of recording when I head up to New York City to do the pregame preview for Morning Combat this week. He is the producer of Morning Combat. He's also from a couple of programs you may have heard, Main Card Minute, and, I mean, the hottest MMA program in the streets these days, prop quiz. Speaking of course, Luke, No Seed, a Long Island, Luke.

Luke, how you doing? Jed, great intro, fantastic intro. Good to be here, as always. Also, like, hands down, the best card of the year. Maybe not the best five-fight main card, but definitely the best prelims throughout. And I'm damn excited. Also, you mentioned that newer card.

They moved to Van Tate. Tyra fight, I will be in attendance at that newer card. So I'm pretty excited that they just added that fight to it. So let's go. Yeah, I mean, when the news broke, so we talked about this little on air after Vegas 115. We knew that news was coming in enemy fighting. I believe our own Guillermo Cruz, the one who initially broke it.

And it was a thing we had talked about for a couple of days because we knew it was happening. We were working on confirmations and stuff. And so we talked about it. in the aftermath of 115. And even though I knew it coming, then when I looked at the card, I was like, oh, I think 328 is better actually now. I think 328 and 327 are basically the exact same tier of fight card.

If you remove the Van Tire Co-Main event, they're like the same. And so 327 was better, but now that Van Tira got bumped over, I think 328 will be a better fight card. But both are very, very good. I'm very excited about the action. We have to talk about this weekend.

Luke, I mean, this doesn't happen a lot. Almost every single person on this fight card has a Wikipedia page. Not all of them. Still got a few not. But even the ones who don't, it's sort of like they probably should at this point,

you know, like Chris Padilla is like 4 and O and the UFC should probably have a Wikipedia page. Doesn't have a wiki, which shout out to him because that means he's not making us. own, but a loyal listeners program, get Taco Padilla a wiki. Four and O in the UFC, my guy. Come on. I'm pretty sure he's been a dog in every fight, too, and I've definitely cashed on him as a dog a few times. Shout out Taco Padilla. That guy's a man. He has been a dog in every fight. As you know, I do look at the favorites and dog sort of thing, and that is absolutely true. Also, interestingly

in that, as he fights Markell Maderos in the early prelims, Maderos has never been a dog, and we've got that inverted this week. So a very interesting thing. We'll get to that at some point. But yeah, the only non-wiki fighters are Padilla and Medeiros. Again, both dudes have three plus fights in the UFC. Should probably have wikis. Chuck Buffalo, Charles Radke, probably should have a wiki at this point.

And Francisco Prado, five fights in the UFC. He hadn't done very well in them, but, you know, oh. I think you've got to get two UFC wins to get a wiki. I think that's probably. By that, the other three men should have wiki. So you don't get this every day. I frankly, a lot of live dogs, I think, on this card. Top to bottom, just a very, very good card.

I'm excited to chop it up with you about it. Two very minor housekeeping notes before we get into it. First, I just want to give an update on where I'm at year to date. As we have moved through the first quarter, we are now in April. So first quarter, I am down a little. little over three units. I picked up like not even a half a unit last week, didn't do a show, but I bet the underdogs in both the main and comane. I thought, uh, I was like, I think Hanato Mercano shouldn't be an underdog here. And that was very correct. Uh, I was like, I'm not sure

Viener Genji Robo should be a favorite over Tabitha Ritchie. I was wrong on that one. But they were both underdogs. So we cash like 20 bucks or whatever on the stock on 100 bet. Uh, but we are still down from the year. Basically, Seattle was really bad for us, and otherwise it's been an up and down year. Housekeeping note, too, this week we will start the new edition of the climb. I've mentioned this in a couple of other programs. I can't keep spending $100 on the climb. When I first conceived of this gimmick, I didn't really think it out. And $100 is just such a clean stock bet. And then I had so much success early on, I was like, oh, this would be fine, because I'll do well enough to get to like that 10 and then I can pull money out and it'll just thing and I haven't

been remotely close to good with the climb lately and that's a me problem we'll be clear that's that's a jed user error but uh the financials of burning as much cash as I have been uh is not sustainable so we are for this version this next step in the climb we're going to knock it down to a half we're going to do a $50 climb so the goal will be for those who don't know the climb. I think you should at this point by now. It's like my biggest gimmick. I'm trying to string together 30 consecutive bets all of around minus 500. Because if you do that and you roll them up one into the other, if you do it with a hundred bucks, you'll turn that $100 into $23,000 thereabouts. If you do it with $50, you know, the math would suggest and does that you'll

get about $11. So the $50 actually has some, you know, I turn $50 into $10,000. is kind of nice too. It's pretty cool. So that's just sort of where we're at. We are going to kick it off. I had a little bit of trouble finding my climb this week. And then just a ray of brilliant struck me. And I was like, very obviously it's this.

But we will get to that in just a moment. Luke, before we dive into 327, specifically, you already mentioned it broadly, but like, how pumped you for this weekend's card, right? Like you do a full card watch along for every event. That's God's work, and we love you for it. But this weekend, it won't be that bad, will it? Oh, my God, it's going to be great this weekend.

Like, the curtain jerker was, I know it's not anymore, but it was Kelvin Gaslim, Vicente Lucke, like a month ago, and I've been looking forward to this ever since. Like, that's a great curtain. I know it's Charles Radke now, but, you know, either way, it's so funny that we just went from the worst card of the year on paper with a ton of minus one. thousand favorites on it, a minus 650 favorite who lost, like shit like that. And then this week,

like you said, hard to find a climb bet, Jed, because every fucking fight feels like minus 150 to plus 175. Like they're all very close odds where like if you just put a two leg, three leg money line parlay together, you can find really good value on this card. So from a betting standpoint and obviously from a fan standpoint, very excited for this car. I'll put my excitement out of 10 out of 10 for this card. Same. Yeah, biggest favorite on the card's Aaron Pico. He's only minus 350 and spoiler alert. I don't know

if I want to pay minus 350 on Aaron Pico in this fight. But also how dare you suggest that last week's card was terrible? Don't let Michael Bisping hear that. Because he will call you out on his YouTube channel and get real. He very

much did. In his post-fight YouTube thing that he does every Saturday night or Sunday morning or whatever. He was like, these so-called journalists in MMA fighting were saying this is the worst card of all time. And it was like, yeah, bro, it is. It's always people who say it afterwards and go, look, like, Dana always does that.

Like, look at how good the fights were. It's like, yep, we were judging it before it happened, though. Like, you're judging it on paper. You can't, with hindsight, be like, well, that was actually fun. like also and my immediate response uh when we talked about it in our post show was i mean yeah we had way more fun like i i i'm always willing to acknowledge when a card is fun if you miss that card right like if you are a hardcore mma fan but you had a wedding you had something else to do you're not sad like even if the card was fun it's just like okay whatever we're never going to talk about

almost anything that happened there ever again so like i'm i know that that's your job. Michael Bisping is to show for them, but he was, he was, it was deeply funny. People were like, Michael Bisping,

I'm pissing people off and I'm pissing off former fighter. Pissing off all the right people, Chad. That's all I'm out of my people. Hades me. Everybody hates me. What did you do to favor? I'm not 100%,

but I think that it is, because like a non-MMA friend who sent me, Faber went on O'Malley's podcast and like called me, out by name and was like this guy's a dumbass. I'm pretty sure it's because after Song Yadong lost to O'Malley, or maybe even before, I was like, he needs to leave Team Alpha male because he's plateaued as a fighter. He doesn't, he has five ideas. If he can be athletic enough to beat you, then those five ideas work.

And he, they didn't against O'Malley. And like, I get it. I understand why Faye would be mad at me. I'm like, your camp isn't very good. but like build a champion bro. I want to watch that clip now. I got to see him call you up. I'm going to find it.

It's all the thing. So several people sent it to me afterwards. It's like, I mean, it's fair. And he can be up, he can not like me and that's okay. I can't begrudge him for that.

But like, am I wrong? You know, or is team Alpha male turning out a bunch of champions or all their fighters plateauing? No, I thought it was a good point when you made it at the time. But,

yeah, it's just like, okay. I don't know. Prove me wrong. And it's cool. So everybody hates me. And I'm sure I'm going to piss somebody out this week too, probably. So let's dive into that because we've got a lot of fights and we don't have an infinite amount of time to talk about them.

The main event, a light heavyweight championship belt, the vacant title up for grabs as former champion, Uri Perashka takes on Carlos Olberg. Of course, vacant belt, because Alex Pereira has. drop the title, moving up to heavyweight to make a run up there, try and become the first ever three division champion in UFC history. And so I think we thought this fight would make sense for it, even if there is like the slight question of, you know, the most recent champion that wasn't Alex Pereira, Magerman Ankelaev,

not being involved. But we get Prakashka, we get Alberg. The fight on paper looks quite good. The odds fairly closely lined. Minus 130 for Perashka, the comeback on Alberg plus 105. Also, a spoiler. When I did my notes for this, some of these lines may have shifted. I noticed that when I was looking at today, but I haven't updated.

So if the lines have shifted, it won't be by much. That's sort of where you're looking at it. Yeri, three and two of hers past five. His only two fights, his only two losses in the U.S. have both come to Poetan. On a two-fight winning streak, knocked out Khalil Roundtree in October at UFC 320. Alberg nine fight winning streak. Quite the run he is on.

Knocked out Dominic Reyes at Perth in September. Obviously, this is the highlight of the weekend. We know it will be fun because it's Jerry Perashka fight. Luke, how are we feeling about this main event? All right, well, I just want to say, you said that the odds may have shifted since then. Last I looked, it was a pickum. So I'll say that before spoiling my pick here by saying, I just said straight up

I'm going to take whoever the dog is here because this is one of those fights and of course it's a pick-um granted I put my bed in two days ago I did get it in but the point being right now dude this is anyone's fight Yuri obviously an animal he's going to put it on you but he also

gets hit as often as he lands Oldberg lands more often and gets hit less often despite also kind of being a donk Yuri is actually legit he's obviously a former champion himself only lost a Poetan like you mentioned in the UFC not only that seven of the eight UFC fights he's had have come against guys who are still currently ranked.

The only person who is not ranked that he fought was fucking Glover-Teshire who was a champion when they fought. Olberg looked good recently, but the biggest wins on his resume are kind of like the lesser names on Yuri's resume. Not the lesser fights because Yuri versus Dom Reyes and Yuri versus Vulcan Osdemeer are sick fucking fights, but those are kind of the two biggest names on Carlos Oberg's resume. So a little risky if you're back in Carlos. only three of his 10 UFC opponents are currently ranked. At the same time, you can only fight who they put in front of you. A nine-fight win streak in the UFC is no joke,

even if it's a light heavyweight or any other, you know, lesser division, we'll call it. Olberg, also a former kickboxer, both of Uri's losses, came to a kickboxer. I know it's a stretch. I'm comparing Poetant to Oldberg, but you get my point. Jed, I got Carlos Oldberg at plus 120, and I feel damn good about it right now, especially that this fight is a pickum, feel like he has the momentum. Yuri just leaves himself too open at times for me to feel comfortable taking him. And like I said, I was really just going to take whoever was plus money here. I feel a little like FOMO not being on Yuri because he's just fun to root for.

But, you know, I think Carlos Olberg is the more skilled fighter with the better fight IQ. So I'm hoping he can get it done. I knew this is going to happen. You spent too much time around frigging Luke Thomas and his, his fart sniffing holier than now. Yiri Prahashka doesn't have defense garbage. He likes Yuri now. He likes you. Yeah, yeah, he did because I bullied him into it, basically.

Yeri, uh, for anyone who has ever heard any of my work is aware that Yeri Pashka is my large adult son. And, uh, I love him like a family member. I love him more than some family members, quite frankly. And if you thought I was ever picking against him ever, you just, you're out of your goddamn mind. You're just out of your goddamn mind. Like, I would pick him regardless.

but I also just think that you should pick him to beat any light heavyweight that's not Alex Pereira because the thing is, I mean, on the one hand, Alex Pereira is a known cheater because he brings Amazonian spirits into the cage with him and that's cheating. The Bushito way cannot stand up against the spirits of the river. So if you got rid of that, 50-50 fight with Poetan. But Alex Perey won't get rid of those. So, but all I'm saying, Uri is never lost in the O.C to a man who doesn't have Amazonian River Spirits.

And Yuri is crazy. I think that people underestimate how important being crazy is. Yes, I think he is actually technically getting a lot better. He is just straight up added defense, which he simply did not have before, which is just like a, it's like, oh shit, the happy learned a putt moment. from happy Gilmore.

It's like, oh my God, Harry Perashka can move his head. Y'all might be jacked. And so he's got that. But he also just like, go watch the Kalil-Roundtree fight. Who's a kickboxer if you really want to do that? Like,

Yuri was losing that fight, though. Let's be real. He sure was. Yeah. And what happened? You know, Carlos ain't going to let that happen. Carlos ain't going to let that happen. Different fighters.

But Carlos isn't in control of that happening, much like Kalil wasn't in control. because it's not fair to put normal human beings into a cage fight with a crazy person. And that is what Yuri Prahashka is. He beat Kulia Roundtree literally by being crazy. He was just like, oh, I've lost two rounds. I just will be insane. And Kluo's like, what?

I'm fighting a bear now? What the fuck is? And then he got knocked out. So even if Kallis Ulberg has a strong start, which historically has been whatever. everyone has had against Erie. Dom Reyes had a very strong start against him too. You have to either be Alex Pereira and be able to put him out, right?

Like, you have to have the nuclear option or you're going to have to survive 25 minutes with a crazy person. And no one's done the second part yet. And until I see you do it, I'm not going to think you can do the first one. because here he is like again Pereira didn't one shot him which i think is the thing that people don't like Pereira had to hurt him several times before he put him down and this is alex freaking Pereira i don't think Carlos Holberg is that my large adult son gets the belt back long may he rain see that you're giving me even more fomo now like i want to see him win but i just

i couldn't i can't bet on him as a favorite if like i said right now it's a pickum dude if they flip-flop and I can get Yuri at plus money, I'll probably hop on that. I'm not going to lie. Just a little hedge. It's, look, I'm just, I'm, in general, my strongest belief in all of gambling is that gambling is supposed to be

fun. Um, because like if you're trying to gamble to win money, you've already lost the game. You're gambling to have fun. And there are very few things more fun than gambling on Yeri Pajshka. So I will be betting on Yeri Pajka for certain, uh, not will be. I have

bet on him. I got him at minus 125. So lines moved. It would have been better if I got him better, obviously. But it is what it is. Luke, let's go to the co-main event. We're sticking in the light heavyweight division, our new co-mean event. Frankly, quite weird that this is the co-main,

but it might be the co-main because potentially they're setting up a tournament of sorts here between the main and the co-main now. Because once we lost Van and Tyra, this isn't the one I would choose, but it's the one we got as Osamat Mirzikanov takes on Paulo Costa.

Moving up to 205, officially, he previously had a fight with Marvin Vittoria at 205 pounds in the UFC basically because he came into fight week and was like, I can't make middle weight. It's just like,

it was just like the most brazen. Oh yeah, I'm not going to make that. So we should not do that. And they were like, okay, I guess it's a light heavy fight now. And he lost. Kind of got to respect the Hutzpah.

Yeah. But now at least it was planned from the start. As Costa takes on, the former middleweight title challenger takes on the surging Mersikanov. Merzikanov 6-0 in the U.S.C. coming off a knockout win over Alexander Rackich at UFC 321 in October. Costa, meanwhile, two and three over his past five. Is coming in off a win over Romacopoulov at 318 last year.

July. That was, of course, back at 185 moving up. Mersakanov, your betting favor, round minus 190, 200, the comeback on Coastup plus 155. Luke, how do we feel about the Comaine? I went back and forth on this one, and like Mersikanov, you know, he's undefeated, he's looked good in the UFC, but he did make his debut in 2022. He's only fought five times since then, like really not that active. Granted, he did fight twice last year for the first time in like four. years. So I guess he's getting more active. Palo Costa, you mentioned the win over Roman Coppilov, but that's his only win in the last three and a half years. Not only that, he's lost four of his last six. And we just mentioned the, you know, Marvin Vittori fight where he's like,

let's go up to 205 and already lost at 205. So, you know, don't really feel good about him moving up and wait. Maybe he's put it on the right way this time. You mentioned, you know, it was fight week last time. Costa does land more strikes per minute, but he also gets hit three times as often. Merzikanov lands twice as often. as he gets hit. And not that I really expect Pelot Costa to wrestle here, but even if he does try, Mirzokanov does have an 87% take-down defense, which is pretty damn good. It feels like a tough match-up for Costa. I do think the odds are pretty accurate. I did strongly consider taking Mirzikanov money line, but instead I'm running with the over one-and-a-half round shed. I got it

in a parlay. I'll get to the other leg as we go. Mirzikanov's hit it in four of his last seven. Granted, he did burn me in his last fight against Rackage. I also had the over one-and-a-half. Costa, though, hit it in eight straight. I feel like Paulo Costa just goes the distance nowadays. He's guaranteed going three rounds at this point, so I feel good about this one going long. And maybe Mersikonov is the better, more safer bet, but I'm riding with the over one and a half.

No, I actually like avoiding the Mersikonov. I considered parlaying Mersikonov with another fighter laid on this card because I like the line for the other guy, but he's, I was just sort of look casting about for what's another parley piece. But then I thought about it. And I think Osamant Merzikon is going to win this fight.

I do want to note from a betting trend perspective, he's undefeated as a favorite, obviously. Coastal only two and four is a dog. So he is not like a huge guy who cashes his dog. Vegas has him pretty well figured. You're going to hear this phrase a lot for me this week, and it's probably not the phrase you want to hear if you're coming to this for salient.

gambling advice, but I'm feeling a lot of vibes in Miami this weekend. A lot of vibes. And if you go and check the social media as of one Paulo Costa, I'm not sure there's ever been a UFC fighter ever.

More fit to the vibe of Miami than Paulo Costa is. Just in your mind's eye, you can see that man with the shirt buttoned up. Just two buttons flowing, billowing open on a boat. Like that just is, where Paulo Costa deserves to be.

And so we're putting him in his spiritual home place against a man who could it be less Miami in Osamot Mirzikano. Like when you think of Osamaat Mirzikanov, you don't think of Miami. You think of the cold, just in general, something with cold in it, trees, you know, not palm trees either, you know, like tree, trees, furs. So we're taking him out of his country. comfort zone and putting him in wonderful, beautiful Miami. And this just, the vibes kind of make me want about Paulo Costa.

I might end up doing it just for, just for funsies. It is. But I ultimately decided I just can't, I can't get behind as much Merzacanov, even though logically he should be Polo Costa. Like that totally makes sense. Mersikana is also like 37, not a spring chicken. And if, and like, while he hasn't shown really any huge weakness, It wouldn't, like, stunned me if Costa just walked him down, fired a bunch of body shots,

and Merzikanov was just winded by the six-minute mark of this thing, and this just got grimy. So passing a bet here, I do think that over is a good one. I like that a lot. So I think if you're going to, you know, put a bet down, I'd go somewhere in that. But keep my eyes peeled. I might vibes bet Polar Costa later in the week, depending on how me and Mike's draft goes on BTL this week, as we go head to head continually for the year. When you were talking about vibes,

I thought, because me and Luke Thomas were literally just texting about, have you seen that all Brazilian fans have turned on Palo Costa and they're all rooting for Mirzikanov? And Mirzikanov's timeline is just flooded with him as like, in like Brazilian soccer jerseys,

him tweeting in Portuguese, like I'll bring out the Brazilian flag when I walk out, like all the shit. So like... That's a great, great gimmick. I was just going to say, so vibes are kind of, I'm kind of feeling Mirzicant, like, dude, he's bringing the Brazilians with him,

but also maybe it works in Palo's favor. Like, yo, I mean, if this was in Brazil, okay, but we're in Miami and again. I know, it just, I don't know. I think Paul Acosta is the most Miami fighter on roster. Like, I'm sorry, Horamaz, I just don't think it's the same, bro. Dustin's pretty Miami, too. I know he's from New Orleans. I mean, yeah, but, yeah, he's very vibrant.

But yeah, I am genuinely fascinating. by that fight, even if it feels like a little weird that it's the commain. But if Mersicana blows the doors off Costa, they might just book him against Yeri, or I guess Alberg, but Yerry. It's Yer, it's Yer. Maybe, Albert. Let's move on to the future battle of the evening. A heavyweight contest is Curtis Blades takes on Josh.

Hokit Blades, a slight favorite minus 130 to come back on Hokit plus 105. Blades, three and two of his past five, coming off a split decision win over Rizvan Kuneev at Baku. last summer that I think a lot of people don't think you should have won. Hokit, meanwhile, Tuno in the UFC coming off contender series and making a name for himself for reasons that, sure, knocked out the fantastic Denzel Freeman at UFC 324 in January. Huge step up for Hokit, Luke, because Hokit has never fought a person with the Wikipedia page. and now he's fighting the number six guy or whatever Curtis Blades is.

So a big, big step up in competition, and he is only a very slight underdog. How do you feel about that, Luke? It's interesting, dude. Like, you just mentioned definitely a big step up in competition, probably the best wrestler that he's ever fought. Like, I didn't do too much research on Hokka's former opponents, but, like, Curtis Blades, pretty damn good wrestler. I'm going to assume it's the best guy he's ever fought. Curtis Blades also fought the better competition, four of his last five fights,

coming against currently top 10 guys, the only outlier being Jelton Almeida, who, well, shouldn't be top 10 today, obviously no longer in the promotion, was top 10 when they fought. So, you know, all five of five coming against top 10 guys. Hokeet, you just mentioned. Hasn't fought anyone with Wikipedia, hasn't fought anyone even sniffing the top 15 at heavy. It's heavyweight, Jed. Isn't everyone in the top, aren't you just automatically ranked when you sign with the promotion? He hasn't, he hasn't fought anyone in the top 15? This feels like a wild. jump but at the same time dude Hokit's stats are actually like

really fucking impressive he's beating a bunch of people who aren't good dude but his striking differential he lands over six strikes per minutes gets hit with less than one he's beating a bunch of people who aren't very good I'm just saying blades

averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes Hokit nine takedowns per 15 minutes sure against you know cab drivers put hook against blades is run a competition. Let's see how that holds on. I'm not, I'm not picking Hokit here for, you know, burying the lead here. I'm not picking Hokka. I'm just saying, I was

actually impressed. I wanted to take Curtis Blades, which is why I'm bringing up all Hokit stats. Those actually scared me away from taking Curtis Blades. So instead, Jed, I'm again taking the over one and a half, parlayed it with the over one and a half and Merzacanov costa plus 125. It's super risky. I'm a guy who likes to back up my bets with like logic and like, oh, they've hit it in X amount of fights, so it makes sense. Again, Jed, you just said you're going off vibes, straight vibes pick here. I just feel like this one goes long.

Again, the stats don't back it up. Curtis Blades only hit it once in his last five fights. Hokit only hit it once in eight pro fights. But I just feel like this is going to the scorecards. I don't know who wins. I'm hoping it at least goes seven and a half minutes. Look, we love a heavywood over here on this podcast. It's one of my favorite experiences.

The most electric bed in sports, some have called it. And I honestly totally think that that's viable here. I am just betting Curtis Blades. If I lose, I lose. You know, that's good on Josh Oket to basically become an overnight sensation functionally. You know, personally, not into the man. I don't know if you've seen this shirt he is selling. No, I haven't.

You'll find it. Yeah, I was going to say, maybe we shouldn't talk about it. It's, uh, yeah, you know, not, not what I'd call a highbrow. Um, but that's not really Josh Hoggut's thing. Uh, so I would never back him in any way because I just don't care for him personally. I think that these odds feel insane to me. I know Curtis plays probably is not. that his best version anymore, but like the sheer gulf in who they have fought, who they

have succeeded against is so dramatic. And while I think Hokit probably is going to be hanging around the top 10 for quite some time in the UFC, I, he doesn't strike me as like a real prospect in like a good heavyweight division. It's just like, yeah, he has good cardio, enough skills, and this weight class is, is rancid. So he can make some A here. But Curtis Blades has been doing this for a long time. The concern is that Curtis Blades gave up so many takedowns to Jailton Almeda.

Then I'm like, can he just not defensively wrestle? Because he mostly hasn't really had to. But he also somehow won that fight. Yeah. So like I just the edge and experience, I think Blade's a better striker, even though I don't think Blade's like a great striker. We've never seen Hokit on his back size advantage for Blake. Blades, like, on principle should at least be minus 200,

and he's only minus 130. I'm on Curtis Blade, so. Did you think this should have been the Co-Main? I was curious what you thought should have been the Co-Main. I think this probably should have been the co-main. Yeah, like, I'm very intrigued by this fight. Because, like, Curtis Blades is the highest other-ranked fighter on the card, and Josh Hokit's a guy they're trying to get over.

So I think this probably should have been the co-main. but honestly, if you wanted to do the Cubby Swanson Co-Main, that would have been sick, you know? We could have had fun, but I get it. I get that. I think, but if I had my jothers, I would have put this as Comane. Man, I just am now realizing that this card, while fun, a lot of big boys on it,

because we move from the heavyweight division to the light heavyweight division one more time on this main card as Dominic Reyes takes on Johnny Walker in the fourth fight from the top on Saturday. Ray is a very slight betting favorite, minus 125 or so to come back on Walker. He's around that even money, plus 100, plus 105. Reyes, 3 and 2 over his last 5, got knocked out by Ulberg in Perth, as we mentioned at the top of the show. Walker, meanwhile, 2, 2, and 1 no contest over his last 5, but coming off that very nice TKO win over Zhang Mingyang, the Mountain Tiger at Shanghai in August, ruining my apart.

He ruined a climb that weekend because Zhang was climbed. And he ruined all the hearts and minds of the Shanghai fans as the Mountain Tiger fell. Reyes' favorite. A little surprised by that, frankly, Luke. What do you think? I mean, this just feels like one of those fights where neither guy should be the favorite. You know what I mean? It's like both guys have decent striking different different differentials.

Dom does land more strike per minutes, but he also gets hit more often. I really think anyone is crazy if you're trusting either guy. They're both, to me, the definition of glass cannons. 73% of their combined pro wins have come by knockout. Dom was knocked out in his last four losses and knocked out bad. Johnny was knocked out in his last three losses. And there was that no contest you mentioned with Uncle I have in there. But he got his shit rocked with an illegal knee in that fight.

So just add that as another fucking K-O loss in between. I know it was a no contest. But you know what I mean? That's like four times being K-Oed in that stretch. I think if you're looking at back aside, just take the dog, given how Cheney both guys can be. so like I don't blame anyone for taking Johnny Walker here. I'm just going to root for violence.

Both guys are known for it. I'm taking fight does not go the distance in a parlay. 81% of their combined pro fights have not gone the distance. Dom is hit it in seven straight and Johnny's headed in four straight. I don't hate that. But let me let me tell you something here. You said something there. And I just, I can't get behind it because we're here to have some fun.

and let me tell you what's going to be fun. It's going to be sad because I'll be sad for Dom Reyes. But Johnny Walker is a crazy person in his own right, much like my beloved Yuri Prajska. And he looked quite good against Zhang Mingyang. And I was interested in taking him straight up in general, just as an underdog, because it just feels like Dom can't take a shot anymore.

Like he just doesn't. And Johnny Walker, for all his flaws, incredibly athletic dude and can usually find a way to land a shot. But then I was looking at these odds, Luke, and you know what I found? And I am stunned, stunned by the bed I've found here. And it is Johnny Walker by K.O. is plus 220. Oh, that's good. He's almost a straight pickum to win outright.

And if he wins, it's going to be by knockout. Like that's, that's just what happens. Four of Reyes's five losses have been knockouts. 17 of Walker's 22 wins have been knockouts. So why am I getting that much better of a price for Walker by knockout than Walker straight up? Not going to take the Walker straight up. I think that would just be foolish.

I'm just going to throw a half unit on Walker by knockout because it'll pay me out a full unit and some change. Are you worried at all? I was thinking it was more recent. I'm looking back at his record right now. The Iwan Kutalaba fight. He did rear naked choke I want. Remember he was like showing off wrestling chops for a little bit?

He was training at SBG. I know, I think now he's at Extreme Cout. No, because four of Dom's five losses have been by knockout. What's the other? Oh, decision. 17 of Walker's 22 wins have been by knockout. Yeah, I guess you said previously you like to show the math. There's the math.

All right. You got it. You did it. Looking at those numbers in my head, I'm like the buy knockout line, I thought by knockout was going to be like plus 125 versus is plus 1.15 or whatever. And it's just like, I'm getting way more value on, on Walker by K.O. So I jumped on Walker by K.O.

Again, only a half unit because you never know. Things can get weird. I don't need to put a full on it. But it just feels like that is, if you're betting Walker, you should bet that. Not bet Walker, in my opinion. I'll be running for you. We move on to the final main card fight of the evening. Bumped up as obviously we lost the co-main.

and I think they chose the right one. You could have gone many options, but Cubby Swanson in his retirement fight, WEC Never Die Baby, taking on Nate Landre in a featherweight contest. Landwer, very slight betting favorite,

round minus 120, Cubby plus 100 or so. Cub Swanson, three and two over his last five coming off the knockout win over Billy Quarantillo in December of 2024, so been a stretch since we've seen him.

If you watch the uncrowned video, of his final fight camp talking about it. He was honest being like, you know, I was maybe done. And then the UFC was like, you should come fight one more time as the last WC guy. And that was enough reason for me to come back. I love that story. It's awesome. Good work from the Boys on Crown.

Landware two and three over his last five on a two-fight losing streak knocked out by Morgan Shahye in Nashville last summer. I am just going to take the lead here because it's very obvious. W.C. Never die, baby. If you think I was not betting Cubs Swanson, you're out of your goddamn mind. Cubs Swanson, let's ride. I mean, dude, I watched the uncrowned. Shout out to Casey, by the way, a great work. I watched that shit, and I was like, oh, my God, I need to bet on Cubs Swanson. Like, it got me hyped for Cubs after that. I feel like it actually swayed my opinion. But, you know, to back it up, he does get hit less often. Nate has a negative striking.

differential. And not that I expect Cub to wrestle, but he does average one take down for 15 minutes. Nate was taken down six times in his last two fights by guys who are predominantly strikers. So it just feels like if Cub is like, oh, I could wrestle here. Like he'll have his way with him. He hasn't fought in a year and a half, like you mentioned, though. And he kind of soft retired. So I'm a little worried, like, has he really been training? He does run his own gym, though. Obviously, he's probably been in the gym every single fucking day. Whether that means he's been like training, training, I don't know. But I still feel like he's obviously. in shape. The 42-year-old thing, Jed, was where I was like, fuck. I don't love that, you know.

I mean, it's not like Nate Lambert was a spring chicken, though. This man's going to be 38 very, uh, in like two months. Um, I know. And here's the other thing that I'll tell you. I mean, two things I'll tell you. One, in, uh, the words of Gene Hackman in the seminal film, the replacements, there is no tomorrow for you people. And that makes you very, dangerous. There's no tomorrow for Cubby. Saturday is Cubby's last day, and that makes him very dangerous. And two, we ticker your fancy here. Cup Swanson as an underdog, nine and eight. So he is a hugely profitable fighter to bet on as an underdog, and 50% of the time basically wins. Landware one in three as a betting favorite. This man does not convert when he is predicted to win. It's two

hitable. Cubby is going to channel everything for WEC and rep the boys hard on Saturday. I heard you say in this. I think it was on the post fight show the other night and you got me hyped. I'm what my actual bet. So I do like cubbit dog money. I'll probably end up throwing on it. I should probably hop on that soon because I have a feeling those are going to flip up. There's no chance he's going to stay dog money. Yeah. So there's too much sentimentality going to come in on. I'll probably actually put that in two minutes when you start talking. But anyways, I'm taking fight does not go the distance. I parlayed it with fight to knock on the distance in Reyes Walker. Little violence parlay. It's plus 121. Sixty four percent of their combined pro fights of knock on the distance. Cubs

hit it in five of his last seven. Nate is hit it in four of his last five. Jed, truth be told, I really wanted the over one and a half. And then I was watching you and Mike Heck on Saturday. And you guys, you were like, Cubs going to leave it all in there. It's the end of an era. He's going to throw it like basically what you just said. And I was like, fuck, he's right, man. Cubs are going to finish him and he's going to finish him early. I'm going to be happy I had fight does not go the distance. Great price too. I have it in a parlay, but as a single, it's minus 1.35. So I feel like, that's a very good price. Yeah. So I'm riding with that. I mean, Nate Landware is a psycho. Cub is, you know, and Cubs even talked about, like, I think they are just,

Cub is going to go out in the best way possible, win or lose, right? Cub could absolutely lose to Nate Landmer. Not what I'm voting or predicting or betting, but like very clearly can't happen. but he's going to go out like Cubs Swanson. He's going to, you know, this guy's a Hall of Famer for his fight with duo Troy. He's going to, they're going to send off with a show because that's just who Nate Landry is too. So yeah, very much looking forward to the main card opener on Saturday. Looking forward to the prelim main event to Luke, a fight we had theorized talked about for many years on the Bellator side of the ball. Now, now, right as PFL contemplates, go.

Going back to Belator and one of what would be the biggest own goals in the history of combat sports, the UFC is thumbing their nose at them by making the best fight in Bellator history that somehow never got made. Patricio Pitbull takes on Aaron Pico. Pico, the biggest favorite on the card around minus 325, the comeback on Pitbull plus 250. Frankly, shows you how good a card this is when that's your biggest betting favorite compared to what we've had some of the cards this year. Pipple, two and three over his past five, one and one since joining the UFC,

uh, beat Danny Ege, the unanimous decision at UFC 318 last July. Pico, meanwhile, lost his UFC debut to Lorone Murphy famously, uh, UFC 319 in August, spinning back elbow sent him to the land of wind and ghosts. Uh, Pipple 38. So something to keep in mind here. You, you were just talking about that 42. Got some older fighters on this card. Pipel, a lot of, a lot of mileage on them too.

I still, Luke, I think that this is too big a price for Aaron Pico, given what we've seen from him. I agree. There's just a lot I don't like here. But two things that are crazy here. You pointed out, him being the biggest favorite on this card is crazy for two reasons. One, like you said, the price alone is so small compared, like, that's the biggest favorite. And the fact that how the fuck is Aaron Pico the biggest favorite on this card coming off of a brutal knockout eight months ago? It really isn't that long ago.

I don't know. It's kind of wild. uh pit bull does have a negative striking differential and a really bad one like almost two to one so maybe that's why he's such a big underdog pico lands more gets hit less he can obviously also wrestle with the best of him pit bull was taken down in his lone ufc loss pico did actually manage to take down lorone murphy twice despite that fight only lasting a couple of minutes stylistically it feels like pico should be able to get the job done with the wrestling but i put him on the same level that i put dom reyes and johnny walker as far as like trust level like i can't trust these

guys because their chin is gone. So he's been finishing all five of his pro losses, knocked out in four of them. The Lorone fight I just mentioned was only eight months ago. We've seen way worse turnarounds in this sport. But like if you showed me that knockout, I'd be like Aaron Pico needs a year off. So eight months to me still feels too soon. I'm going to take pit bull with the spread when it drops in a parlay. I'm going to go as high as seven and a half just in case it goes the distance. I think he could steal around, but like more importantly, I feel like a knockout is on the table. Yeah. So like I like the spread bet because I could also see just, you know, 29, 28 or something that Pico wins. So that's what I'm right of. Yeah. This was I think the fight that

I had the most consternation about what I wanted to do. Because I love the fight. I am, you know, it's past its prime. Pitbull's just not where he once was, but still a good, like a very, very good fight, quite frankly. And so interested in it. I think the price on Pico's too high. I don't, at the same time,

I don't think the price on Pipples high enough because I do feel that he has to catch him. And Aaron Pico can be a very reckless and get caught. But I just don't, Pipple looks so bad in his UFC debut and he did look better against Eagan. but I don't know what to make of him because before his UFC transition, he was looking kind of mid, you know, doing rising stuff. And I, the simplest answer here is to is to pass all out.

And I may in fact do that. The other choice I have, and I haven't done this, is to put him, put Aaron Pico in a parlay with another dude just for fun, just to have action down, not, not necessarily like I said, a parlor that I think is good. Because again, I do think these odds, these odds are scary. Like, at no point was I ever considering Aaron Pico

for the climb this week. So I don't know what I'll do. Maybe as we get closer, when we get to the guy I would parlay him with, we can talk about it. And then you can see how you feel about that possible parlay and what that might end up looking like. So we move on to the lightweight division

as we move through these prelims here. and Matush Gamrot taking on Esteban Rebovich, Gamrott minus 170 Reevovich plus 140, Gamrott 3 and 2 over his last five, got submitted by Charles Olivaura, the BMF champion. In Rio last October, honestly, one of the best performances of Charles's career, in my opinion, because I was very, very concerned about that outcome for him, and he bulldozed Gamrod out of the frigging cage. Rievovich meanwhile, four and won over his last five. Unanimous decision went over Elves Brenner in August, and personally, I think he should be on a five-five winning streak.

He has a split decision loss to Nazaret Hack-Pras in there that very few people think Hackpressed won. Not saying none of them do, but most people thought Esteban Rievovich won that as well. So, I mean, a very quality fight, Rebovich getting his opportunity to move into the rankings, because I don't think he's ranked right now. How do you see this one going, Luke? Well, first of all, I feel like this is one of those fights that has, like, name value on both sides, but somehow it's going to end up sucking.

You know what I mean? It's like, oh, that's a Matush Gamrot fight. Exactly. Always could. Exactly, Jed. And I had the same note as you, by the way, that Rebovich should be 5 and O because he definitely beat Nasrat Haq-Pras. He lands more than twice as often as gamrot, but he gets hit more than twice as often as well.

Gamrot, we all know what he's going to do. He's going to take you down. He averages over five takedowns per 15 minutes. Rebovovich only has a 70% takedown defense, which against someone like Gamrot, yeah, he's going to have his way with you. Not only that, Rebovich was taken down in both of his UFC losses, including 11 times in his UFC debut. Gamrott should win this.

And unfortunately, like I said at the top, a really fun fighter in Rebovich is going to be in a really boring bout, unfortunately. I'm going to be rooting for him, but I'm not going to bet on him. I'm instead going to take the over two and a half in a parlay. It's, pricey it's like minus 250 right now but gamrots hit it in six of his last eight rebevich is hit it in five of his last six so i'm going um but you know i'm going for reevich here i'm going to take a lot of dog shots uh on this card i've already and this is sort of when they start

cubby into riebovich here um he has been very good at stuffing takedowns lately his percentage is pretty high in general. But I think like Ells Burner or went like 0 and 9 on him. And Ells Burner, not the same takedown artist of Matush Gamrod is, certainly. But in general, he has just been very good at keeping things on his feet.

Gamron has been more willing to stand and trade on his feet over his last few. I mean, the Dan Hooker fight, I think he probably should beat Dan Hooker and would beat Dan Hooker nine times out of 10. But he just is, like, was trying to shake the I'm boring.

thing and you know that sucks that he feels compelled to do that but I mean if that's how he's going to fight that's going to be a problem against Esteban Rievovich I won't be stunned if Garmor wins I think Gamerat has been a deeply underrated fighter

and I like watching him work even if many people find him boring like I absolutely loved his fight with Armand Srukian I thought that fight was incredible to watch but I you know I think Riebevich is sort of on the rise too so some more vibes here.

29. Coming up, you know, the new blood at lightweight, I think we're going to finally get some transition here. He knows what he has to do, stuff a bunch of takedowns, use the cage, get back to his seat when he does get taken down, and put the numbers up on Gamera. I think he can do it. Give me Esteban-Ribovich.

I got him a plus 155. I don't know where that line is going to go, but it's come up since I did my research on this, and I got him at 155 this morning. So we'll see. We'll see where we go. But where we go, Luke is where do we go, Luke? Oh, we go to the welterweight division now.

As Kevin Holland takes on Randy Brown in a matchup of really lanky dudes. Kevin Holland plus 115, Randy Brown minus 145. Holland, two and three over his last five. He's on a two-fight losing streak. The unanimous decision lost to Mike Malott in Vancouver. That was marred by a lot of controversy. Quite frankly, it should have been a no contest, but is what it is. Randy Brown coming off a knockout loss to Gabriel Bonfim in November.

He's three and two over his last five. Look, this feels like a coin flip to me, but I do have a side on this, and that side is Kevin Holland the underdog plus 110 is what I got him at because this feels like a coin flip. I also, if it was a coin flip, it might even be like a slightly weighted coin flip towards the Holland side for me because he is more durable than Randy Brown. I think and that you know Kevin Holland he has been stopped a couple of times but both were like one was the corner was like hey man wonder boys kicking the shit out of you we're we don't need to keep doing this and there was great call because Kevin Holland was still going to go out and fight the fifth round and the other was like a rib injury he doesn't really get knocked out I think that will be troublesome for a guy like Randy Brown who wants to put the pause on you I think his durability can carry him here too so Kevin Holland is my bet loop. All right. Well, interesting because you said like it feels like a coin flip, but I admittedly went the other way, Jed. Both guys, identical striking numbers, despite them each averaging less than a takedown per 15 minutes. We all know that's Kevin Holland's Achilles heel throughout his UFC career is getting taken down. Can't get the fuck up. Randy didn't have a take down in his last three wins, but he has taken down close to half of his UFC opponents. Not saying he needs to wrestle here, but I just feel like that's a good fallback plan if things aren't going his way on the feet. I would have thought Randy would. be a slightly bigger favorite. He's like minus 120 right now and I feel like word, I'll take that.

I'll throw that in a parlay. But I do also like the over one and a half. Holland's hit it in three of his last four. Randy's hit it in two of his last four, which isn't the best. But the two outliers there were like a minute away from hitting. So he gets pretty close, even if he's not hitting. I mean, I like the over. I think that's a good look here for sure. Look, if Randy wins, I won't be stunned. I've always thought Kevin Holland was better at Welterweight, but he, you know, if you're going vibes, I don't think Kevin Holland is riding the highest vibes right now, given his most recent efforts, but I don't know, maybe he'll get it together or just, it's where I'm at. I will also say Vegas has this fight pegged normally correctly.

Randy Brown 10 and 2 is a betting favorite. Kevin Holland, 2 and 6, an underdog. So I am on the wrong side of history with this one, but it is the side. I am on nevertheless. And we go to the final fight of the middle prelim section, a women's strawweight contest as Tatiana Suarez takes on Lupi Godinez. Tatiana Suarez, your betting favored around minus 170. They come back on Godinez around plus 135-ish.

Suarez, four and won over the last five, the loss being her title challenge. That was quite bad. Coming off a unanimous decision win over Amanda Limos in San Antonio in September. in the worst fight of 2025 and arguably one of the worst fights of the last several years. Lupy, meanwhile, on a two-fight winning streak, UD'd Androge at 319 in August. Luke, how do you feel about this one? Because this is a bet.

I have two bets on this fight, actually. Oh, I love a two-better. I'm leaning one way here, Jed. Tatiana, she lands more than twice as often as she gets hit. she'll have a five inch reach advantage. Lupy does land more strikes per minute, but Lupi also gets hit twice as often as Tatiana. Both girls obviously like to wrestle.

Tatiana, though, averages one and a half times more takedowns. Not only that, but she's taken down all nine of her UFC opponents. Lupi was taken down in her last three losses. Tatiana's probably going to make it sweaty as shit or boring as shit, like the Lemos fight, but either way, I like her here. I think it's a cheap price, too. You mentioned minus 170. I got a minus 155, but either way.

I like her here at that price. I'm on the other side. I'm going Lubby Godinez. I'm, I think I'm just all the way out on Tatiana Suarez at this point. I was very high on her, but, uh,

I mean, just a horrifically bad 20, 25 for her. Um, the Zhang fight was, she was so anemic. And then the rebound from that. The limo, like,

Limo should have been an easier bout. And she barely won just a horrible, horrible fight and it seems like she's plateaued. I mean, this isn't the smartest thing to say, but also the fall of patchy mix has me concerned about her own failures. Because he just fell off a cliff and it feels kind of like Tatiana sort of hit a wall and is there now. Godinez, I mean, the biggest concern is Lubey gave up takedowns to McKinsey Dern who is I, again, I love McKinsey Dern. and one of the very few people who stuck by her this whole time,

truly may be the worst wrestler in the history of MMA. Like, not even hyperbolicly. She's at least in the conversation. And freaking Lupi gave up two takedowns to her, which is just like, Tatiana could probably take you down if that's happening. But Tatiana just looks so bad. And on the feet, this is a very clear Godinez fight. If she can just stay on the feet enough or just do enough damage win on the feet

to edge one out here. I'm just sold on Suarez. And so probably a bad bet, but I'm back in loopy at plus 140. And this is where our new climb will start, because the over two and a half is minus 425. Suarez actually not great on this statistically. Five of her nine bouts in the UFC have hit the over two and a half. But Godinez, 12 of 14 in the UFC have gone over the two and a half. She is going to the cards almost every time.

Minus 425. This just feels very much like a fight that's going to be a decision. And honestly, instead of betting loopy straight up, I probably should have just played for points, the spread on loopie, but I didn't even look at that. And, but I just think this one's going to the card. So the over two and a half minus 425 is the first step of our latest version of the climb.

Let's go. Let's go. And let's go a little quickly through these last three fights here. They're not bad matchups, frankly, but we're running low on time. And they're the worst matchups on the card, as is how this works. First up, Chris Padilla, the aforementioned Chris Padilla taking on Markell Madero's, Padilla minus 180, Madero's plus 150, as I mentioned. The first time Padilla has been a favorite or Maderos has been an underdog, both undefeated in the UFC. Fadero's coming off a unanimous decision win over Mark Chonsky at 316 in June.

Padilla, meanwhile, he killed Ishmael Bonfim in November. Luke, just looking at this one, I don't have any action here. I think the odds totally makes sense. Padilla has just beaten a higher level of competition. Again, four times an underdog and has consistently just outperformed the expectations of him. I don't know if that changes. Now the expectations have flipped, but he is carving himself. out a nice little spot here in this lightweight division. Yeah, I'm high on Chris Padilla. No pun intended,

because he enjoys that as well. But Markle Madero's dude, he's won three straight in the UFC, but all three wins came to guys who were either winless in the UFC or no longer on the road. Like, who's Mark Chonsky? Who the fuck is that? You know, Taco Padilla won seven straight, six of those coming by finish. Madero does land slightly more strikes per minute and he gets hit less off him, but Padilla is going to have a five-inch reach advantage here. Padilla also shown the ability to mix it up. He got three takedowns. in his UFC debut. Maderos was taken down in all three of his UFC bouts. I think Madero's UFC record is a little inflated given the level of opposition. Padilla obviously proven he's

got that dog and I'm cashing four times. I also think this is the first time, oh, I wrote, this is the first time being the favorite in the UFC. I'm a little nervous about that, Jed. Like, does he not have that that chip on his shoulder now? Like, oh, I'm supposed to win this. I don't think that's going to be a problem for Taco. I don't either, but, you know, I worry about that as someone who's cashes a dog four times. I think that's like your shtick you know but either ways like you said odds are still pretty close i'm glad to take him at like what is he right now minus 170 or whatever some like that yeah so i'm throwing him in a parley for sure uh i briefly considered madeiros because i did like him coming off contender series uh he's much more athletic than padilla um but i he just hasn't beaten anybody

worth salt and pedia has continued to do that so um just gonna sit this one out but i i I love, I think the fight is great matchmaking and we should have a very good time with this. The penultimate fight we'll speak about, strangely enough, because this is like a fight that could be a co-main event in like an apex card. But headlines, UFC Vegas 116. I mean, this is only slightly worse than last week's headliner. And from a name value standpoint, it's actually higher. As Kelvin Gastilum takes on Vicente Lucke in a middle way, contest, Luke.

Gaslam minus 250, Lucke plus 195. Gasolm, coming off for unanimous decision win over Dustin Stoltzvus in San Antonio in September. Lucay, meanwhile, lost to Joel Alvarez

at Rio in October. This is the other fight I was considering in a parlay because I really like Kelvin Gaslum here. I love Vincent A. Luque. He's a super fun guy. I think he's just sort of past it at this point. And now he's moving up to

middleweight. Like I had to double check and was like, this is middleweight because, you know, Kelvin sometimes likes to pretend to he's a welterweight for a while. So Kelvin will make weight. I don't know what Luke is going to look like a middleweight, but I'm not high on the prospect of it. And Kelvin Gaslam, I think he has regressed substantially as a fighter in general. He is still extremely durable.

And Luca does not have much of his durability left anyway. And so if he can't get you out of there, I think he's going to have a bad time against Calvin Gaslam. I like the price on Gaslam. I'm just debating if I want to parley him with Pico. All right. I mean, dude, I feel like, first of all, I had no idea this fight was that middleweight.

I'm just going to be honest. I just assumed 170 once I saw Luque. I didn't even, you're right. Like, why would I think that Gaslam in 2026 is making 170? I mean, maybe that's on me. But anyway. I mean, you could have thought that, oh, because honestly, the reason I felt like I realized it was 185

I was like, okay, so Kelvin's going to miss weight, and then he's going to have an advantage. And I was like, oh, he's not going to miss weight. It's 185. So he won't get that advantage. Well, he should look to wrestle here, dude. He only averages one takedown for 50 minutes, but he has taken down almost half of his UFC opponents. And I feel like as soon as he has a little success wrestling, he tends to rely heavily on it. Last two opponents that he took down, he took down at least four times each.

Luke A was taken down in four of his last five losses, including two straight. Unlike you, Jedd, I feel like the odds are a little wide here. Like, sure, Gasolum should be the favorite. I think he's going to win here, but it felt a little too wide, especially given how he looked against Dustin Stoltzvus, who I don't think is that great. I felt like it was a way closer fight than it needed to be. Odds aren't really tempting enough to take Lucke either, though,

because I don't think Lucke wins this fight. I'm taking the alt total rounds over one and a half in a parley. Gaslim's hit it in eight straight. Lukase hit it in five of his last seven. I would go two and a half, but Lucay has me worried. You know, like I'm confident Gasolam can last 50 minutes. I don't know if Luke A can at this point. I understand.

We move on to the last fight that we will speak about, the first fight of the evening. Charles Radkeke, Chuck Buffalo, taken on Francisco Prado. Radkei minus 180, Prado plus 150. Radke, two and three over his last five submitted Daniel Frunza in November. Francisco Prado. one and four in the UFC a three-fights skid as we spoke about coming off a split decision

loss to Nikolai Veritnikov at UFC 318 that being said I did think that he beat Veritnikov so he could be a little bit better but also as did I don't remember if I mentioned this or not Chuck Buffalo 3 and O is a betting favorite Proto 0 and 3 is a dog so the fact that Vegas has this

lined they have thus far been perfect on both of these men in this situation, something to be, uh, to take into consideration. Me, Luke,

as I look at this fight, actually, like I'm like oddly into Francisco Prado. Um, he's just still super young. How old is? He's like 23 or something still. Yeah.

Um, an American top team guy, the concern is that he is so small. Um, like he, he just is a, is, he's not really a welterweight,

but he keeps doing it. thick boy but he's got like baby arms and chuck buffalo is is a very physical dude very uh i think we're getting a little bit a little bit of a striker versus grappler here and prado has not particularly been like the best defensive wrestler either so i get while the fight is lined as it as it is i wanted prado to be a bigger dog because i would take him as because i kind of like him but unless unless this moves closer to plus 200 i'm just going to stay away. I had like, all right, I don't, I'm not high on Prado. I just want to be straightforward, but I had the same thought as you, like, why isn't Prado a bigger dog? I thought the odds would be

way wider here. I'm like very happy to take Charles Radke at minus 185 or whatever. He averages over a takedown for 15 minutes. He got three in his last fight. Prado, 50% take down defense. You mentioned, it's pretty terrible. Taking down five times in his four losses. You know, I don't love when Charles Radke gets a microphone, but I think as a fighter, he's solid. His only two UFC losses came to Carlos Prattis and Mike Malott. Those are not bad losses. Prado only won one fight in the UFC came to a guy who has lost three straight. You mentioned the Veretnikov fight.

He might have won. But, you know, technically he didn't. So, whatever. No, he didn't win. I know, I know. I'm going to ride with Charles Radkeye Moneyline. Chuck Buffalo. Let's go.

I did, I noted this about Radkekee just because I won't be doing it, but everybody knows I'll have a good gimmick parlay. and, you know, there's, you could, there's some gimmicks that you could throw out here. That's really, I know you, you do that every, every week. The one that I found that I won't be betting for several reasons is something that you alluded to. Man, we're going to let that dude speak into a live mic gimmick, which is the Josh Hokit, Chuck Buffalo Parlay. You pair those two dudes up and wait for them to win and then cover your ears because that post-fighter. speech might be something.

Dude, might be something. That is a great gimmick. Also, right now on draft kings, plus 238 for that. So solid value for a two-leger right there. I'm just saying, if you are into that sort of thing,

that is an available option for you. Not the choice I'm going to be making, but that was when I was looking at gimmick parlays, that was like, oh, I like this gimmick. Because the other ones are like, people who won at UFC San Antonio or whatever, or the Kevin Kelman. I didn't even think of that. I did like New York, you know, Randy Brown, Dom Reyes. He went to college. Yeah. I did New Jersey, Mersakhanov trains there, Luke A. Born there, you know. How about eight fighters from California on this card? How is, how is this card not in California? It's weird. I don't know. That's a lot. Also, like, a weirdly solid eight-leg parlay, only two dogs on it, I believe, and they're like slight dogs. Like, Cub being one of them. You know what I mean? Like, it's a real solid parlay, I feel like. But Pico's in it, so maybe not.

Alas, there it goes. That is UFC 327. I do also want to shout out that there is a PFL on Saturday as well. I don't know why PFL does this. Last weekend was the worst card of all time. Not technically, but it was a very bad card. The PFL has decided instead to counterprogram the two strong UFC cards with good offerings. This PFL Chicago card is not bad.

The main event, Sergio Pettis, Mitchell McKee, Pettis, a slight favorite. I'll probably throw a little bit on him for funzies. You got Rufian Stotz, who's probably going to lose to a Russian dude. You, Viviana Rujo, in like a bunch of decent names, Alexander Romanov. Of course, Biazio Ali Walsh, as always, they're running them out there. So this PFL car pretty decent. If you have a second screen, you can throw it up and just kind of keep up with that.

I think we got Tyson Fury this weekend, too, right? And there's Tyson Fury. That won't really overlap because the main car for, Tyson Fury starts at 2 p.m. Which is cool. Because you can watch that and go right. It's great. It's on Netflix.

You can fire that up. I didn't pull odds on that at all. Neither did I haven't looked at it. Actually, I might take a look at odds on that right now. I'm going to see if. I'm going to assume Tyson's like a huge favorite, knowing nothing about the other guy.

Correct. But maybe I can, you know, we pull that up and maybe we, maybe we do some double climb in action, you know? Yeah, get a little,

true, a little boxaeo. Oh, where is Tyson Fury? Minus 525 against ours. Lindbeck, Mahmoudov. I mean, I truly know nothing about McMudov. I have to assume Tyson's going to win this.

We're probably going to do that for fungies. Yeah, you should do that. You know what? Add it to the over two and a half. Parlay those. There's the climb. We're just going. We're going to do that.

Double it up. Let's get going. Let's get this climb off to a rock and start. And we are going to get out of here. Luke, tell the people where they can find your work. Main Car Minute, guys, everywhere on social media, YouTube. I'll do the full card watch along every UFC event, including this weekend. And new prop quiz Friday, 1.30 p.m. Eastern time.

Won't spoil who the contestants are. You got to tune in Friday. Jet, I'll tell you offline. But, yeah, tune in for that. Tune in for that, prop quiz. How to show in the game right now. I'm just saying, you know, it doesn't have to happen now. We can build towards it.

But there's a man out there taking my BMF gimmick, and we're going to have to settle this. up like the Bmfs that we are. The problem is I refuse to have a BMF belt so we have to think of something even cringier. I look, this is the people's champion. We know who the, because we all know who the real

champion is, he's never going to lose. We all know who the people's champ are. I was disappointed in the cowardice that some people on your show have shown, quite frankly. And me and Oscar Willis, that's not how we get, we point at the ground and we slang them thanks.

I just want to say too, Ben the Bain calls himself the people's show. champ. So I think you got to throw him. This is almost like a three-way thing. Ben can get these myths whenever he wants a baby. I don't turn down fights. You line him up, knock him down.

That's it. Thank you for joining us this week. The UFC 327. And then we are on the road to Winnipeg. That is right. Mike Malach, Gilbert Burns. What a heater next week. Thanks for tuning. Love y'all.