MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Jose Aldo And Alexandre Pantoja Give Brazil Something To Cheer About At UFC 301?

Episode Date: May 1, 2024

UFC 301 is here and we're headed back to Brazil! This Saturday, the UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro for its first pay-per-view offering since the immaculate UFC 300, and the No Bets Barred boys are back to break down all the fights. After taking a few weeks off to recuperate following the extravaganza that was UFC 300, hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew return with spirit, opening the show with a brief recap of their past couple of weeks before diving into this card. Will Alexandre Pantoja give the Brazilian crowd a happy ending to the evening or will Steve Erceg - AKA "Vinnie Cigs" -- become the most unlikely champion in UFC history? How will the return of Jose Aldo go? And which Brazilian fighters are primed to be upset on home turf? All this and a lot more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 86 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster, The Downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide.

Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now, only from Audible.

...to the Vox Media Podcast Network. It's going on, y'all. We are back. Another edition of No Bet's Bard. We had a week off... We back! A week off from UFC, and then, I mean, we just took a week off.

I was traveling. I mean, I was actually shocked at how many comments and messages I got asking where No Betts Bard was. It's nice to be missed. It's nice to get a little love shown our way. I wasn't shocked. I mean, the No Best Bard Nation, they are the best fans in the world, you know. It was like Wednesday, I got like one or two. And they were just like, yo, where's No Betz Bard at? And I was like, oh, that's nice. And then like, as the week went on, they started cranking up more and more. I'm assuming people listen as the card approaches. I mean, it was. It was great.

I'm not going to lie. I thought maybe you were going to throw something up. You know, I guess everyone was busy. I was trying. And then we had some other stuff going on an R&2, and I couldn't find a suitable replacement. And I was like, do the people really just want to hear me vibe for 30 minutes?

I don't think so. Yeah, it wasn't the best card either. You know what? You know, distance, missing, makes the heart grow that much fonder. And now we're back for a pay-per-view card. Plus, I mean, following up 300 with that, like with me going solo on that fight,

card which i graded the worst fight card at the year heading in yeah i was like you know what let's just wait till 301 let's go pay-per-view into paperview yeah it was uh it was not great um i think i lost about a unit on it you know could have used a little bit more violence took a lot of unders how did you do it 300 though 300 i did great cashed a lot of dogs up about six and a half units on the night uh i mean just an incredible card delivered it was one of those cards I guess I really haven't gotten to break it down that much since it happened. Like one of those cards that I was just on a high on after. Like I was just like, God, that was awesome. Like this is why I love this sport. Like this like, it's like kind of like the slog between 299 and 300, you know,

you kind of start being like, all right, another apex card this weekend. Let's do it. You know, and then 300 happens. And you're just like, this is why I do it. We get the Connor McGregor announcement afterward. It's just like the memes that came from it, the Alex Pereira with the, with the Cabi LeMay and then telling her to get off the Holloway the last 10 seconds, the yeary fight. I mean, it's just like endless, just unbelievable night. How did you do, my friend? I mean, it was a terrific night, just so much fun. I ended up losing a little over a unit, which is my first losing week in a little bit. So yeah, not ideal, but, uh, You know, we, the, I feel like I said this a lot.

I, I was robbed. Just straight up, I was robbed of a winning week. The difference between success and failure, Wiley Zhang inside the distance. Oh, I thought he were going to say. She finished her. She finished her. She submitted her. She's unconscious.

And then I still thought, even after that nonsense, it was like, are we're still going to get it anyway with that second round just beat down? And then as soon as that didn't happen, I was like, well, there's no chance. she finishes her now. We just, no chance she finishes her at this point. Yeah, after the second time

you knew it was cooked, like finished her and then Herzog could have stepped in at any moment when she had her completely flattened out and was just raining down punches.

I thought I had Wiley Zhang inside the distance against Amanda Lemoche and I thought that was about a bad as beat as you could get on someone not finishing someone. She just absolutely pummeled her.

Yeah. And then she found a way to top it with this one. I mean, it hurt me being like that's that's a submission that she is unconscious the fight is over and then it wasn't it was absolutely killing and then hersdog went on twitter and kind of like chided everyone kind of like uh you know it was just like oh she got up you know how big was your bed is that why you're so mad at me it's like not too she was legitimately out so unconscious and per my

understanding of the rules and reading them again over and over to make sure that I wasn't insane. Once you're unconscious, the fight is over. But that couldn't put a damper on an electric evening nonetheless. And the fact that you only lose one unit, I would pay a unit of lost wages to get the night we got. Oh, I was expecting to have a fairly large losing night. I was riding with my heart on all my picks. Like, I was like, I was on Holloway. I was on Charles. I was on, I think it was on like six dogs. I was like, this just probably isn't going to end up well. Dogs bark, man. Shout out to Yuri. Speaking of that Zhang fight,

there's been two instances in the last like month and a half where I've been on the watch party and I've seen live odds show up on the screen. And I'm like, wow, that seems like I should hammer that. But obviously, you know, doing the watch party and everything, I get distracted and I don't do it. I want to say it was like halfway through round three when it felt like Zhang was starting to gas.

And they showed the live odds and she was like minus 150. I was like, man, only minus 150. I feel like she's like at least got a 10-8 in the book here as well. And then like a month ago, Joseph Parker in boxing when Jai Li Zhang on that in Gano, AJ card, Jai J-Lijang was just completely a corpse of himself for the last four rounds. And he was like plus 500. But I missed out on both of those. So shout out.

Shout out. Shout out. And you know what else? Shout out to Rio, baby, because that's where we're heading now. I can't wait. UFC 301, you know, going from 300. to 301 is a bit of a step down, but it's a pretty solid card. You get in a Brazilian in every single matchup, and you're getting a shot at Steve

Erseg becoming a UFC champion. So you are unaware of this. And it's okay. A lot of the MMA community isn't aware. I was excited to come on here because I knew I'd have the opportunity. I can't want to hear this. There's no Steve Erseg. Steve Erseg doesn't exist.

He is a phantom, a fictitious member. It's not it. I rebranded him a few weeks back, maybe a couple months back at this point. Do you know what Steve Urseg's middle name is? I don't. No, I have no idea. Well, you're going to because we at MMA fighting are no longer referring to him as Steve Erseg.

His name is Vincenzo Orseg. Wow, that is way cooler. I mean, when you tell me Steve Urseg's fighting for a title, I'm like, why do I care? You tell me, Vincenzo Arseg's fighting for a belt. I'm like, man, might take the belt. I like that's a dangerous, dangerous man, right? there. Vincenzo Orsegh from Perth. And then I also believe Don Giacomo, Jack Delamatta,

Madelanelana, also from Perth. I mean, it's just like an Italian mob down there. It's just Italian mob. And we have also adopted to calling Vincenzo Orseg, Vinnie Siggs, is the name that we have foisted upon. Any reason? Does he smoke cigarettes? You know, it just, it rolls. It rolls well. Vinny Siggs, Vincenzo Orseg. So as, If that changes your bet, I just wanted you to know before we get into this because I agree, I would never bet on Steve Erseg. Can't bet on Steve. Vincenzo Orseg.

Vincenzo Erseg has a nice ring to it. Vincenzo Orsseg sounds like a champion. The colonel, he was eating KFC when he got the call and he decided I'm going to finish this box and then I'll get into training camp and try to become a UFC champion while being on the roster for less than a year. This time a year ago, how much of the fan base knew who Steve Hersec was? Absolutely. I guess this time of year, zero. Yeah, because he's jumped in on short notice against David DeVorek.

Jumped in on short notice against David DeVorek. And even at that point, I, like, didn't know when that happened. I had to go, like, look into him and be like, oh, guys got a little bit of game. And look where he's come. He's got a new name, fighting for a belt. He's ready to go. I have seen the stat floating around that. Steve Versaig debuted a month after Bilal Muhammad's last first.

fight and Steve Urseg is is fighting for the title. I hadn't seen that stat. That's a terrific stat. Love that stat. It's a nasty one. Nasty one for, for Ballal. But let's dive in.

Let's dive in the main event. Alessandre Pantosia. Fighting at home in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil taking on Vincenzo, Steve Astroboy, Erseg. A lot going on there. Vincenzo Astroboy Steve Urseg.

Then you could call him Vase for sure. We're just getting rid of Steve. Okay, we're just dropping Steve. Stevenso Astro Boy Erseg. My only rebuttal to that is the dude is quintessentially Steve. I almost think that he was originally named Vincenzo Erseg. And then he started growing up and his parents were like, uh, this guy is a Steve.

We screwed up this naming. This guy's definitely, did you show, did you see what he showed up to it for the face off? Just a plain blue polo. Just that's it. Just like, That's because he doesn't know any better. Because when you name your kid, Steve, you're going to get a Steve.

But we're taking it back. We're reclaiming this for him. I'm not sure Vincenzo is aware that this is happening, but there's been a growing movement on the M.M.A. Fighting YouTube channel of Vinnie Siggs, Vincenzo Orsad coming through. And I'm going to keep pushing this issue because no one wants champion Steve. They want champion Vincenzo. And he just doesn't know that that's in him yet.

we have to show him the way Connor. I mean, bro, I'm looking at the picture right now. If you haven't seen it, it's just so great. I mean, Pantoja's rocking kind of a loose button, like Hawaiian samurai shirt with like a chain. And he's got the belt, obviously a Brazilian. And then Steve Erzeng just plain blue polo. I don't see a lick of branding on this thing. I mean, it looks like you got it off the rack at Walmart for 1999.

I was like, this is dry fit. This is a nice fine. That's just smart business. I mean, this guy is. branding if they're not paying you for it. This is the man who knows is worth. He's not going to be a free advertisement out there. I'm having a hard time with this main event if I want to get into my breakdown here. Half of me loves the idea of Steve Erseg becoming champion and him winning in less than a year's time. And it's not like he was some Uber prospect or like he's been talked about

for years and all of that he just came in, dogged out a huge win over David DeVorek, has gotten two wins since. Circumstantially, essentially just a title shot fell into his lap. Like if there was order in the flyweight division right now and Pantoja hadn't essentially cleared out seven of the top 10 ahead of Steve Ersek, like he's probably not getting a title shot if Muhammad Mahayev had performed better in his last fight, he's probably not getting a title shot. Like it's all circumstantial that just sort of fell into his lap and I want him to just go out there, win the title and then show up in a different colored unbranded polo to the post-fight press conference having come into Brazil and defeated their champion in front of a sellout Rio

crowd. It would just be tremendous. I mean, it would just be tremendous. And I like Steve Erseg. I want to say he came on the MMA hour like two or two and a half months ago. And like I always I always do pretty heavy research into these guys before they come on, go deep on their socials and everything. Steve Erseg, at the time of coming on to the MMA hour a few months ago, had less than 10,000 followers on Instagram. And he's not much higher. He's only at 32,000 now.

I imagine that's going to skyrocket if it becomes a champion. But just the idea of this man becoming champion brings joy to my heart. warms my heart. I mean, yeah. I won't even bear the lead. I'm picking him. Picking and betting him. Okay. I mean, I'm not because I'm not picking old betting on Steve Ursaig. Vincenza. I'm picking and betting on Vinny Six. Vincenzoorsak. And I got to tell you, I thought the price would be better. It appears the secrets out on old Vinny Sigs after his last performance because, you know, I got him a plus 190, but there's that numbers come down a lot of books. There's a lot of spots for it. Everyone I know is on Steve or sake.

People are giving him real, real shot here to win this. And I'm going to tell you all the reasons he won't because that is largely what I think. It's just that like the question is entirely, like he has much crisper boxing great footwork, real power in the hands. The issue is Pantosia's real, real durable and has shown that championship medal, certainly the last few times out, has, you know, had to fight through some adversity and gets it done. and is a far superior grappler. So this is really a classic. If Pantosia can get him down, it's going to be a good night for Pantosia.

If he can't, then he's going to be hoisted in the belt in his fourth ever fight in the company, which, Connor, I broke that down earlier this week. Not a lot of people have won the belt within four fights. Half of the people who have done there, so there are eight former champions who won the belt within their first four fights.

Half of them did it because they, were the debut title fight like carlos bars off tough it's her first u sce fight is that have them with that the other ones are perrera wiley jang who you know was 19 or no or whatever at the time she came in and was sort of you know popped for that yeary coming in uh it was also like everyone knew yerry rise in vet yeah rise and vet uh Alex Pereira who just sort of lives a whole different universe than than everyone else. And I don't remember who the fourth. Oh, sorry, Brock Lesnar.

Brock Lesnar was the fourth. So it's like... I mean, you're talking about these like star-studded prospects, proven, proven talents, like, and then he says? Massive superstar oras around. Like all four of those people that you named, Brock Lesnar, Wiley Zhang,

Yuri Prohashka, and Alex Pereira are all like, it's a trendy word, but like they all have oras to them. Like, they are just bigger than... life type personas. And who else? Who joins that? I mean, obviously Vinnie Siggs has that level of aura to it. I want someone to ask him what he's, what he's got on from top to bottom.

Give us how much the outfit costs at the press conference. And it's just going to be like Jake from State Farm, just like khakis. Like it's just like, I don't know. My mom picked it out for me. Like it's just, it's really just a thing of beauty. Like it's, I, all right. So I'll go ahead and move this out of the way. I am betting on Alessandre Pantosia.

As good of a feel-good story, Steve Ursaig is. Pantosia is also a feel-good story. You're not betting the vibes. And, man, has he made me quite a bit of money along the way? I mean, cashed him against Moreno, obviously cashed him against Royval, cast him against Alex Perez.

I mean, he made quick work of that one. And cashed him to be flyway champion at the end of 203 at like plus $450. Alessandre Pantosia has been good to me. Love his story. Best walkout song. I think he should be the only man to be able to walk out to many men because he's just such a dog. 35 times he's entering a cage, never been finished. If you're counting the tough fights, never been finished once.

Just will go zombie mode. Like he is just an MF when he gets into this cage. Another reason, yes, I agree, Steve Erseg, Chris Boxing. Looks good on the feet, man. I like the well-roundedness of Pantoja. And then just lastly, what you said, the championship medal. I mean, this guy has shown that he can dog it out against the top of the top in this division. Pantosia, just to run it down, and this is counting the tough fights because they did get into a cage, and he did win those fights.

He has beaten the number one contender twice in Brandon Royvout. The number two ranked guy three times in Brandon Moreno. The number four ranked guy in Kai Kair, France, the number six ranked guy, the number eight ranked guy and the number 11 ranked guy. He is currently nine and O against ranked flywates. and now he's getting the number 10 ranked guy in the main event in front of a Brazilian crowd that will be going crazy for him. He's a dog, he's well-rounded.

I'm not going to say anything, but when many men hits in front of the Brazilian crowd and the red corner is walking out and the crowd's going crazy, Ersec's going to jump up. That's when you should get the Erasek bet in. That's going to jump up to like plus 250 real quick. Everyone's like, oh God.

So yeah, Pantoja. It is my version of a vibe bet I can't knock anyone betting her. I mean, if you cash that ticket, it's just going to be the greatest thing ever. It's going to be the funniest bet I ever win. It's going to be the funniest bet I ever win. Actually, you've cashed some great ones, dude.

Didn't you, you hit DDP, which was a hilarious one to gas. Also just. Sean O'Malley you hit as well? Sean O'Malley. That was less of a funny one, but yes. The DDP one was hilarious. I feel like you had one more, but this would be an all-timer. This would be so good.

And he definitely has a chance. He definitely has a chance. He's got a chance. Look, like, if I'm just giving you, like, a full logical breakdown, I would favor Pantosia in this fight because of all the stuff we said. And mainly, like, the grappling gives me a lot of pause here. Ersig is a pretty good takedown defender, like, defender. Watch his fights.

Like, he clearly knows what he's doing, but you can get them on him. And more importantly, and more questionably, he got a bit of that Dustin Porier school of Jump the Gilly to his game, which is just a real bad choice because, when he does get taken down, you can control him. Lesser fighters than Pantosia have controlled him. And Pantosia is the best top position grappler in the division.

So if he does get a takedown, like that round is over. It's just whether he gets a finish or not, and that is very concerning. But I like his footwork. I like his boxing. And I like the vibes. It would just be the funniest downcom.

For the U.C. To sort of forget about 301. Oh, well, we're going to Rio. What do we got to? Let's just put Pantosia in. We won't even, we'll do it against Vincenzo or Seg. We won't even do it against, you know,

that's true Taira or Mohamed Makhoyev. Makayev, I think, you know, was who I certainly thought would happen. We want to give it. We don't want to give him Mahia. That fight won't be that fun. And he probably loses or could certainly lose. We'll give him Vinny Six. And then Vinny Six comes in and is the most unlikely UFC champion.

Very unfortunate that he has in two. in a year, but Steve Erseg, 828 followers on Twitter. I mean, it's just amazing. Just wait until Sunday. It's just amazing. I mean, he doesn't tweet anymore,

but it's just so funny to, like, see a guy that really could be UFC champion. It will be deeply funny, and then I'll immediately have regrets for wishing this into existence because, like, Dana will get back on his, we got to kill the flyweight division. Bullshit.

I think there's something lovable about Steve Ursaic. I agree, but he has four followers or whatever. Staying it and love that. Someone, someone Photoshop the Best Buy logo onto the blue polo. And I mean, it's just, it's just spot on, man.

What can I help you with, man? What can I help you with? All right. I mean, I feel like we're in agreeance. Like, we both kind of feel Pantosia, but it would just be hilarious.

It would be the funniest outcome. It would be the funniest outcome since Sean Strickland becoming middleweight champion. Yes. This would be like I would this would be the biggest grin I've ever had on my face while losing a bet if Steve Erseg really gets this done. It'll be wild. I actually think this one probably goes long. Like I understand the dangerous submission is there for for Pantosia. But I don't think Pantosia is getting finished. I have seen some people like I have seen a lot of people on Steve Erseg and the number reflects that. I mean last week he was like minus 265 on. draft kings and now Pantosha all the way up to minus 185. So people are putting money on Steve Ursaig. I'm seeing some things about like he's going to finish Pantosia. I don't know.

Just because he finished Matt Schnell. I mean, Matt Schnell gets finished by everyone. Basically the same. But like the man who's been finished seven times. Ali Pants Matt Schnell. Same guy. And like Pantosia who's just been proven to like be incredibly difficult to finish. No one has been able to do it thus far in 35 attempts.

Yeah, I don't know. But don't think Pantosia by decision. plus 300 is a bad shout either. Maybe a little sprinkle on that, but it's going to be a funny fight, man. It's going to be a funny fight. I'm looking forward to it. It's kind of a nice, like, it's a little pallet cleanser between

300 and 300 and 302. It is. Look, this isn't a bad card, honestly. It should be much more. It's hard to complain with how 300 ended, but pretty clearly this should have been, this should be the co-main event. Josie Alder should be the feature

fight, and the main event should have been us talking about Alex Pereo booping Jamal Hill and then posing over him comedically. But, you know, it's fine. And this is, it is a good pallet cleanser. Let us kind of reset as we now start to build to 302 and what that's going to be about. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Oh, what? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo. Great idea. Feel the fun with all the latest slots in live casino games and with no wagering requirements. What you win is yours to keep groovy. I won!

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and dining means you not only satisfy your travel bug, but your taste buds too. That's the powerful backing of Amex. Conditions apply. And I mean like, They're not squash matches, but you have some massive favorites for the Brazilians on this main card.

I mean, Vitor Petrino, Michel Pereira, and Kyle Bahadio are all like minus 500 or greater. So there's a world where you can be building that Brazilian pride right into Jose Al-do. Who is the co-main event, which we will now get into, taking on Jonathan Martinez. I mean, how are you feeling about this one? How are we doing this? What are we thinking? My breakdown of this fight is twofold. The first and most important fold of this is if you think I'm not betting on Josealdo,

you're outside of goddamn mind. Okay. That's all I needed to hear. Pretty obviously betting on Joseo one of my all-time favorite fighters. And outside of the fact that it wouldn't matter who he was facing, I'd be backing him as a support from a boy. I actually think this is a really good fight for him. This is weird matchmaking in that this is like Dominic cruiser.

was the fight if you're going to do this dominant cruise there were reports that you know crews turned it down we don't actually know how valid or true that is but it is a weird like no one cares about him fighting jonathan martinez that being said outside of the lack of name brand opposition here uh i think stylists do it's a great matchup for him uh jose is issues in his later career and even like sometimes in his earlier career the way you beat jos a aldo is with just an extreme amount of volume. You just, because he's the best defensive fighter in history. I actually don't think that that's really up for debate.

He's the best defensive mixed martial arts in history. And the way you can do that is if you like Max Holloway and you just have, you're throwing 10 strikes a minute, there's too much to defend. Jonathan Martinez is not like that way. Piotr-Yan kind of got to Aldo in the same way, Volk got to Aldo in the same way, which kind of overload his defenses and can kind of start making, hey, if you were throwing at even level of opposition with him, then you are losing.

And Jonathan Martinez is not like a super high volume striker. And most importantly, Jonathan Martinez's best weapon is leg kicks. Jose Aldo, the actual best defender of leg kicks in the history of mixed martial arts. When the calf kick first debuted and no one could solve it,

Joseo's out there checking him because he's the only two who can do it in the sport, apparently. I think Martinez has a real tough stylistic matchup for him. And as long as Jose Aldo is not like totally shot and he is certainly coming in off a pretty big layoff and he's older. As long as he still got tread on the tires, this should line up well for Jose. Love that breakdown. I mean, that was that was brilliant. That's kind of how I'm feeling as well.

We know that it is very unlikely anyone's going to go for takedowns here, even though Jose Aldo would probably stuff those as well. My breakdown is short and sweet. If Jose goes for him too, Martinez's cooked, Jose is real good on top. Oh, you could get a little saucy with him. Just saying, Jose. My breakdown is short and sweet. Jonathan Martinez goes by the dragon as his nickname. I know it's not as his official nickname,

but people call Jose Aldo the King of Rio. And last time I checked UFC 301 taking place in none other than Rio de Janeiro. Am I really going to bet against the king of the city as an underdog? The answer is no. I will also be backing. Jose Aldo in this one. Oh, oh, oh. This is a baby wolf pack.

It's just a baby wolf pack. It's too obvious of a wolf pack. It's too obvious. I literally have in my notes, same thing as you. I was like, don't care if this is a donation. I mean, this is purely. The vibes that I'm not taking on Steve Versaig, I'm taking on Jose Aldo. Also, the layoff thing, like, he has had three boxing matches since.

He's been competing. I think he's in decent shape. And also last time out, which was less than two years ago, like, he did put on a competitive fight against Maratha Valshili, who has now proven to be the number one contender in this division. By competitive, you mean at altitude? He's the only person who has ever held up against Marab's insane pace. Over 16, Maraub.

And one. I'm just saying it. Jose won the fucking fight, man. I was on Marab that fight, so I do disagree. But yeah, I'm looking forward to this one. Hopefully he is not shot. Because you imagine if the three Brazilians on the main. guard the giant favorite sweep

Jose Aldo gets a win I mean the place is going to be on fire on fire going into building code violation I mean it's just going to be insane going into a Brazilian champion fighting the main event and then Vincenzo steps in that would actually be the perfect story

then like the crowd is just at like a 12 just going absolutely crazy they're out for blood against Steve Ursa here's the thing though like straight up I actually don't think they'll care that much if that happens. Because, yes, he's the co-main event. Jose Aldo is still the king of Rio.

Like, this is, it is Alessonar Pantosia's knight. He is the headliner, but. Oh, for sure. Everyone there will not care about any other outcome if Jose wins. Like, that is just all the best. I agree with you. I'm just saying, the crowd will be at a frenzy. Yeah, a fever.

And then it's just like, let's just get one more. Let's keep the belt in Brazil, baby. Let's go crazy. Then they'll, they'll boom for a minute. And then they'll look at each other and be like, But Jose won, so it's cool. There it is. There it is.

The best would be if Steve Ersig won, and then, like, instead of putting on, like, a UFC T-shirt afterward, he just put on an unbranded polo. And he's just like, that's how he did his Octagon interview. All right, let's keep it rolling. Featured bout of the night. Anthony Smith taking on Vitor Petrino, the undefeated detour Petrino. Right now, massive favorite for Petrino minus 520. Smith coming back plus 390.

I don't have anything on this fight. I like... Oh, you're smart. I feel like Anthony Smith is either going to get run through or he's going to make this like a dog fight and it's going to be super gritty and close. I mean, Petrino is well-rounded.

I feel like he could run through him, but he's still early in his career. This is his toughest test to date. It's just like, I just feel like it's going one or two ways. Either Smith is just like, people are like, man, maybe it's time for Anthony Smith to retire after this or they're like man he's just got that dog in him look at what he did out there

i think anthony smith's shot i've been thinking anthony's fit the shot for some time he's very fortunate that ryan span has an incredible unparalleled ability to just throw away victories just a hilarious like it's dude it's the only bet i made last week uh i saw it's untrue i made a bet on the main event after Nicolao walked out to Porreys, I'd live bet Perez. I was like, you don't get to walk out to to Porreys.

That's not, we're not going to allow that bullshit. The only bet I had last week was on on, sorry, not Pacino, obviously, was fading Ryan Span because it was like, yeah, Ryan Spans is going to lose because he's Ryan Span. Ryan Span's going to look like he's going to win. Like, it's going to be like a lock and then he's going to lose.

I was never concerned. in the fight too. I was like, yeah, sure, Ryan's, yeah, Ryan could win in the next 10 seconds here, probably not gonna, and then he's just gonna implode because it's great. That's just who he is as a fighter. I don't know, man, it's weird. I think Anthony Smith has shot, though. He got to win over Ryan's band because it's Ryan Span.

I'm still not like all the way sold on Vitor Petrino, but he is young, which is a huge benefit at light heavyweight, just there aren't that many of those. and you know Anthony's miss a bad wrestler so he can just do the take down you know thing if he needs to or he can knock him out on the feet I don't like the price

honestly like it's it's too much of a price but there's a gimmick I had to go with the gimmick he's part of a parlay there's a three leg parley because at the time I was looking at them at my book the other three the three favorite Brazilian fighters that aren't in the main and co-main event

on the main card we're all minus 600 So we took the devil's parlay, the six, six, six, six. Wow. Parlayed the three of them together. And, you know, we'll see. We'll see if the devil is there, if the devil is in the details in Rio de Janeiro. This is great. This is great.

I mean, yeah, yeah, I guess Bahadio and Michel Perreira sitting at minus 600, Vitor minus 550. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love a gimmick. You know I love a gimmick. It's been too long since I had a gimmick. Going with the 666 parlay as Christ the Redeemer stands over the city in which the

fights are taking place. Didn't think about that part. Not even going to worry about it. Destin to lose at this point. All right, let's keep it rolling. Michelle Pereira taking on Ehor Potia. Like I just said, Michelle, massive favorite here, minus 600. And I'm parlaying them up.

I took it a little bit shorter than 600, but I cannot quit middleweight Michel. This man has been good to me. Two minutes. Two cash tickets. I mean, he's looking great, looking phenomenal. Ehor coming down to 185. I know he already went there, but he missed weight last time. Now he's here on short notice.

I don't really rate him that highly. And last but not least, if you didn't think I was thinking of it, this is a revenge game. Because he's doing it for Brazil. He's doing it for Shogun Huah. Last time, Ihor Potiaria made his way to Brazil. he emoted over Shogun Hula, Michel Pereira, is doing it for the country of Brazil.

It's time to get the get back. Dude, if freaking Ehor pulls this off. Oh, my God. And he is now 2-0 in Brazil against... 2-0 in Rio, sorry, not just in Brazil. 2-0 in freaking Rio against Brazilians. He will take over from Nicholas Talbius to New Brazil. doing killer i was going to say uh him and nicholas dalby need to team up and just create like a a super

a super team or something the axis of evil the axis of evil uh i'm assuming you're on him as well in your six six six bar line and if we're like you know gimmicks aside uh he's the actual one i feel the best of of the legs here i don't rate ihor very highly at all i don't think he's that good um the weight this is also a question um and i think uh demolidore is perfectly cut for middle weight. You know, it was obviously hugely beneficial to be enormous at welterweight. But I think he has just looked better. He does not look like he has the same cardio issues.

He is not having to like fight so intentionally as he did at Walterweight to make sure he had the gas because he's just not cutting 50 pounds to make it to the weight. I love him at middle weight. I think he's going to go on a real run here. The best leg of this for me. I actually agree with that. He was like the one guy once the fight got announced. I was like I got to figure out how to parlay him up.

And Michel Brer being the same age as me, actually, like three months younger than me, like is putting my brain in a pretzel. It feels like he's 12 years older than me. It is just, it is thoroughly confusing me. All right, let's move on to the last fight on the main card. Paul Craig taking on Kyle Bahalio. Books are dangling it this week. Paul Craig by submission plus 800. I don't think it's happening though.

I don't think it is either. You know, you always have to at least think about it just because Paul Craig does have that ability. Could happen. We're talking about Doudouz wins over Jamal and Magamette and Colliah, who are two of the five best life heavyweights in the world. Insane. It's nuts. You know, I submitted Andre Munez or did he KO him?

I think he KO him. I think he KO. I think he KO. That would have been another just notch on the old belt for Paul Craig. I mean, he can win any fight, but I do like Bhalio's BJJ skills to be able to avoid that. And the striking seems like it's getting better. Dropped Abis last time out. His striking is a little improving.

And, you know, you don't have to have great striking to have success against Paul Craig, who is a very willing striker and has some power, you know, some power to him, but it's not like a technically or fine guy. I would just be pretty shocked if Borrello got tapped. I mean, we're talking about a dude who grappled Jailton Almeida to a stall, basically, and submission grappling. Like, it's, I just don't think that the- Seems like he has the fight IQ too.

Seems like he's a student of the game. He's had such a weird career. Because he came in and immediately was just like in co-made events and stuff. And so you would be like, okay, the UFC just kind of instantly. put him off the contender series into co-main events. You would think that they might be giving this guy a rub because he's like, you know, winning fights, good gaudy record and kept winning those fights. Co-manevent-Cai.

They've just never given him a bump pass. They're like, oh yeah, you're just, you're co-Mankaya. That's fine. I guess the only argument against that is like most of them were at the apex until like recently he started getting out a little bit more. But they didn't even let him like, I just with. with the start to his career when he like went back to back comains his first two i was like okay they see something here and he has kept winning and they're still just like no this is this is right

where we want you we don't want to elevate you up these rankings too fast it's it's very strange but i think the kids got the goods and can can make some noise at 185 uh speaking of that just a something i wanted to throw out there jonathan martinez uh like having to deal with the crowd is going to be like an unknown for him. He, he has fought in his last seven fights. Six of them have been at the apex. That's basically the same as fighting in Rio against Jose Aldo. I had to tell you that the fan experience is almost identical. He had won at the Las Vegas Fight Night Yon versus the Volusvili last year, but like it's been. Oh yeah, that Las Vegas fight night crowd is definitely the same as the Roch-Moh-Haleh. Jose Al-D fight. Yeah. Um,

Yeah, I mean, it's... 60,000 people screaming, you're gonna die. I mean, it's just, it is something to note. I mean, you've been fighting in a warehouse and now you're going to very, very... Big change of energy. I would say that Jonathan Martinez is going to be in the most hostile territory

of anyone on the card. Yes. I think there's not any more hostile territory in MMA than fighting against Joseo and Rio. I think that that is... You could make other arguments, and I'm open to them, but it's hard to really imagine a place more hostile than Rio against Jose. It's going to be sick.

It is going to be sick. Can't wait for it. All right. Let's move on to the prelims Joe Anderson Brito taking on Jack Shore. Right now, Joe Anderson Brito is minus 142 Jack Shore plus 120. This is a tough one for Tank. Brito, Brito is kind of a problem. him. He can grapple. Big power.

Stayes in your face. Don't know if Jack's going to be able to out-restle him. But I'm not betting against Jack Shore, so I am staying away. I almost want to bet on him just because I am seeing so many people on Joe Anderson Brito. So many. I'm seeing the free monies, the locks, everything like that. And the number is just coming in. I don't know. Nothing's that easy, especially when he's like minus one. 40 right now.

I'm staying away and I'm going to be cheering for Jack Tankshore. This is a moment. I kind of thought you would just be on Jack Shore. So the discipline of you right here, I'm impressed by. I don't love the matchup for him. But if I was going to bet it be on Jack Shore. If this wasn't in Brazil, I would be on Jack Shore. Because I think that he can win this fight.

It is just really, the only reason I'm betting against Vinny, Vinny Sigs is for the lulls of it, basically. really hard to bet against, you know, unless there's like a really great reason. This is just a competitive fight like in a neutral site and you get join us and get a little bump here. So I have also opted to stay away from it. But I get the thought. And I'm proud of you because I thought for sure you were just going to be on him. I really thought about it.

But I want to just cheer for for Jack. And I don't want to be bothered if he if he does lose. The argument I would make is that going back and watching that JSP fight, he was getting a decent amount of control time. I know the famous thing is like JSP being like, do something, do something. And then Brito gets up and finishes him. He sure did something. But like he was kind of dogging him out a little bit, like to the point where he was saying,

like, do something, man. Like you can't do anything to me. So like there is a world where Jack can use wrestling. But man, this is a, this is definitely a tough matchup. I think it's a sick fight. I'm looking forward to it. A nice little feature pretty limited to take it. One of the better fights.

It's on the card, honestly. Yeah, I mean, Joe Anderson-Bri, that was a problem. And also, like, there is just that argument for Jack Shore that, like, I know he lost the Ricky Simone, but that was, like, the first loss he's ever taken in any competition, like, in his life ever. He was, like, 12-0 as an amateur across four years. And then before that, Ricky Simone fight, he was 16-0. Like, he was, like, a ridiculous number, like, 30-0 before that.

So, like, he just finds a way to win. competitions. The Ricky Simone fight is the fight that does concern me though, just because they were, Ricky Simone won that fight almost purely by just being a much better athlete. And just, like they were, they were just playing different sports.

Yeah, I was there live for that. And he at one point just picked Jack Shore completely up, slammed him on the octagon and it just echoed through the whole arena. And I was like, ah, this bed is not cashing. It was so watching it live, I was just like,

Ricky Simone is moving at 1.5 speed compared to what Jack Shore is doing out there. He is transitioning from punching into the hips before Jack Shore knows that the punches are done. It is. And, you know, not the same level of athlete, right? Like, Brito is not that level of athlete because I think Ricky Simone is a very, very explosive athlete. But we are talking about a dude who has that in him is the superior athlete. And that will always give me concern if he is. just not playing the same game, Jack Shor is.

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So plush. Our buyers have got you covered. Marshals, we get the deals. You gift for good stuff. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next up, your girl, Carolina, Kovalkavich, taking on Yasmin, Lucindo. Another massive Brazilian favorite. Yasmin coming in at minus 425, Carolina plus 330.

I don't know if you're riding with your girl or not. I am just staying away, but I have major. pause for taking a 22-year-old women's MMA minus over minus 400 against a 16-fight UFC vet that is on a four-fight win streak? Connor, not only is it a four-fight win streak because it is a four-fight win streak. Do you know what that really means? It means that she is tied with Wiley Jean for the longest

win streak in the division. If you're not including Tatiana Suarez, which I don't because Tatiana Suarez is a four-year gap in the middle of her current win streak. Tide for the longest win streak. We've got a roundtable coming out tomorrow or sometime this week about USC 301. And one of the questions is, what is the sleeper storyline for this fight card? And the thing I chose to talk about was this fight because it, this is going to sound insane until you think about it. Kalyukovilovic might be fighting for a title shot on Saturday.

If she wins, she'll be 5 and 0. It'll be the longest win streak going on in the way class. Is beating Yasmin Lucindo what normally gets you a title fight? No, it certainly is not. I don't know. But Tatiana Suarez is injured right now. Okay. Also, banking on Tatiana Suarez to make it to a fight, that's a bold thing.

Who else is in there? There's one other viable contender, but Yonan and JJ's gone. Jessica and Drash lost like four times last year. Rosamah Hunis is up a weight class. The next future of this weight class, the person that we had kind of stuff attached to, Lupi Godinez, just lost. The only next contender, other than Tatiana Soros for Wiley Zhang,

that she hasn't already beaten, is Viena Genji Rova, which is great. And Viennich certainly will be ahead. But if something happens to Viena Genjiroba, Karelyne Kovovych is a former title challenger, a person who's been around this weight class forever, on a big win streak. And if she goes into Brazil and gets a win,

it would not be insane for her to suddenly be fighting for a belt, which is lunacy. I mean, that is lunacy. But it should 13th ranked beating an unranked fighter. I know the five-fight win streak. And also where the weight class is. What are we lining that as? If Yasminu is massive, minus 450.

But we're talking about Vinnie 6 fighting for a belt right now. I understand that. I understand. Yeah, but that's a tall order. That's a tall order. I mean, would Wiley Zhang be minus 1,000? Yes. Like, I mean, she would murder her.

Yeah, she'll kill her, but she's going to kill most of the people there, and she already has killed the other contenders. So we're talking about Koval Kavich. 39-year-old, Caroline, a coval Kavikovic. 39-year-old, a lot of experience. This is a huge price against someone, like you said. I just don't trust Lucindo at this price. and stylistically, if Kovalkavich can keep this on the feet,

she can do her cardio kickboxing routine and just kind of win two rounds the way that she has done her entire career, basically. I'm a pretty good defensive wrestler. I'm sneaky, sneaky capable in the clinch, and I'm going to throw a lot more volume than you are. She's tough. And she's tough as a dog. She was 22 also.

22 in a big moment. Like it would not at all surprise when she comes out there, in Rio. She comes out there in Rio, shoots her wad early. Carolina is too tough to get to get got and then suddenly she's taking over. I got Caroline and Colbyukovic and plus 360 and I wrote it. I love it. I love it. I love it. She's been making me money. I'm going to keep making money with her. I mean, uh, I will be cheering for her. I support my people. I've definitely learned in, in the fight game. If I do not have a bet down or if it's not a like a fighter that like, like, I feel strongly about either fighter, which is typically rare.

I'm cheering for the dog every time. It doesn't matter. When I went to Devin Haney, Ryan Garcia, like, I didn't know anyone on the undercards. And they were like, oh, this guy's a plus 1,000. I'm like, that is who I'm cheering for just to get a little emotional investment. I think that guy actually won and he got robbed bad. But yeah, I will be cheering for Carolina, Colvich, no doubt. I mean, good.

Way to be on the right side of history. The right side of history. We go from Kovalkavich, a tricky name to pronounce, to Maitabek oralbi. A tough one, tough one. I've seen a couple different pronunciations for this. Maltabek, Mike Debeck, I think the Ks Island, Mike Debeck. Mike Tebeck Oralby, you know him. He looks prehistoric.

That is the way he looks like he is just a fighter's fighter. taking on Elvis Brenner. And this is a great fight. If you are sleeping on this fight, you are wild because this is a really good fight. You're betting on Carolina Colkevich, big underdog. And if you want to bet on a dog, then you want to bet on a dog, a DAWG. And my man, Elvis Brenner is just that. Is he going to win?

Maybe not. Maybe not. but he certainly stands a solid chance. He certainly stands a solid chance. Last year, last time when he was in Rio de Janeiro, cashed as a plus 475, oh, then went and cashed as a plus 450 against Garam Kutaladez by just hanging around,

by just saying, this fight ain't over yet, man. I don't care how bad it looks like you're whipping me. This fight ain't over. You know he's going to bring it. You know he's going to fight for your money. He's got a well-grounded game, well-rounded game. I mean, he's been getting knockouts, but he's more known for his BJJ.

and I know what's probably going to happen. Mike DeBecke is probably going to just spam takedowns, chain wrestle him. He'll be live for a submission, but this thing starts round two. That's when Ells Brenner comes alive. Plus 235, Elves Brenner. That's what I took. I don't have a bet on this, so I'll just throw that out there. You're breaking my number one rule of gambling,

which is if the fighter comes from East Asia and has a fun hat, just don't bet against you because you're probably going to get cooked. Every fighter from that area of the world that has a fun hat and shows up and they just beat the soul out of whoever steps in. Ask how it's been going to fight Shafkao Rakhmanov. Hadn't been going all that well. And Oroby is, I'm not saying he's Shavka, but like, he ain't that far off.

The man only finishes people. all he does is finish fools. And that is why I couldn't make a bet here because I want to bet that. But Elvis Brunner, like you said, got that dog in him. Never been finished. Never been finished. He's out there competing. And so I just like my head wants to say, okay, Brenner gets finished here.

But I can't really believe that because we haven't seen it. So I couldn't find a prop I liked here. I straight up, I would be picking oral by because, I mean, the hat rule. The hat rule is it's a sacred rule for me. I would never go against it. I think straight up, I'm picking oral by as well. If I'm just like, if you're giving me this fight minus 110 each way, I'm

picking oral by. But man, Els Brenner, in front of that Brazilian crowd. Maybe this thing goes long. Neither room can finish each other. And then we get a little home cooking on the judge's scorecards. The best part about Elves Brenner is that he's just never out of the fight. Betting on Els

Brenner is you're going to get to cheer for 15 full minutes. It's true. That's true. You got to take the dog shots when you see him, man. And if you're going to back a dog... You work to 300, maybe it'll work here for you. You want to back a dog, baby.

All right, let's keep it rolling. Next up, Jean Jean-Gene, however you pronounce it, Silva taking on William Go-Me right now. Silva, your favorite. Sitting at minus 135. William Go-Me coming back at plus 114. man William Gomi is frustratingly low volume also his last couple fights have been

been kind of weird sort of an odd finish last time out with the stoppage in the Gianni Gimori fight went back and watched that Francis Marshall fight you could definitely make a case for Marshall rounds one and three he's just he's just very low volume he comes to out point you patient I think Silva's going to bring the fight to him man I think he's going to land the bigger shots. I think he's going to have the more memorable moments.

I think he's live to even knock out William Gomey. And I think he gets his handraised in front of the Brazilian crowd. Same. I've got a bet on a minus 135. Connor statistically, just so we're clearly. This is a contender series guy. He was a big pause on a puppy. The second highest rating I gave anyone out there where he was in that tier of

contender series prospects. They are 8.0. Wow. The most, eight and no. My big pause in the puppy category is dominant performers right now. And I'm sticking with him. For all the reasons, you said, much more volume. I think he's more live for the finish.

Just super high on his abilities and what he's going to do in this weight class. So, yeah, Gene Silva, minus one, three, five. Gene Silva, minus one three five. All right, we keep it rolling on to Joachim Silva, taking on Jakar. close right now close your favorite in a closely lined match minus 162 silver coming back at plus 136 uh first time going against the brazilian here is it uh i didn't look at that but that could be true this might be my first time i'm going against the resilient here oh you're talking about you i thought you're talking about close was like no no no me uh betting against the resilient

here uh i like close i mean he doesn't he doesn't he doesn't fight a ton, but man, when he fights and when he gets in his flow, he looks nasty out there. Plus, similar to the William Go Me fight, I like the volume of Dracar Close. If Joaqua Clos is not landing a big knockout shot, which could happen. I mean, Dracar Close, we've seen him finish before. Then I think Dracar Close is just going to be out volume. I think the knockout come to him. I like that he can mix and takedowns here as well.

I mean, Joachim Silva has been finished in his last three fights. his last three losses. Yeah, I like close, man. I think there's multiple ways for him to get this done. Also, conveniently, this is, in fact, drop our closest first time fighting Brazil. I love it, perfect. So that did work out.

I was like, well, now I've got to go see if I'm, if that's true. Yeah, okay. I just have no bet here. Probably would lean close, but you get a little older, you know, a little too close to that age line. Nailed it. That's tough in the lighter weight classes. and Silva's underperformed,

but he's really just, his losses have all come to really, really good guys. And so it's tough to fault him too much, you know, for, oh, you're so terrible.

You lost to Armand Sauruqi. Yeah. And it was right on for us. Looks good. It looks good. Getting off the bus. Looks unbelievable getting off the bus. I mean,

so I just passed on this. But, you know, I do think close probably wins. But I'm certainly not going to bet, you know against the Brazilian in Brazil without a really strong reason. All right, we move on to Maricio Huffy. He, Brazilian, are we?

We turned into an age taking on Jamie Malarky right now. Maricio, your favorite at minus 175, Malarkey plus 145. Yeah, I played Huffy at minus 148 because Jamie Malarkey's chin cannot be trusted. K-Oed five times now. gave Nazrat Haqparas his first K-O win in five years last time out. Naimov, Etherdom, Jalen Turner put him out. And now he gets a man in Mauricio Huffy.

Nine victories for him. All nine victories coming by way of knockout. Interesting. How does Jamie Milakke lose? How does Marisio Huffy win? Those overlap. Jamie Malarkey could be one in the minutes and then gets caught and gets put out. Can't imagine the chin's getting any better

And against the power puncher in Maricio Huffy I will be backing him in Brazil Yeah, I had Huffy as Like a mid-level prospect coming off the contender series A guy who just needs to work on a few things But I do think this is a favorable matchup For him stylistically Concern is I just am really bad at picking Malarkey fights

I bet on him when I shouldn't Don't bet on when I should And so I have a little bit of concern there but I decided backing betting. Betting against him is probably the safer bet and again, Brazilian in Brazil, dude who throws me it's real hard. It's going to be a big

moment. I think you can find the chain and get this done. All right, we roll on to Dione Barbosa taking on Ernesta Caracate right now the Brazilian, your favorite at minus 205 Karak coming back at plus 170.

I went back and watched a couple Carricade's fights. Last four fights for it. Oh, you crunch it. There aren't that many of them. There aren't that many of them. Split decision win, split decision win, split decision win, and a draw. She certainly likes to make things close.

Not even 100% sold. I sort of flipped through it because it was a five-rounder. Not even fully sold that she won the second blot fight in hexagon MMA. She got taken down a couple times in that fight, and I could see Barbosa doing the same thing here and potentially subbing her out or something. I think Barbosa gets it done. I don't have a bet, but that's that.

I do have a bet. It's a bet on Barbosa. Let's go. For two reasons. The first reason, she was in a very specialty tier of my contender series breakdown, the Leonardo DiCaprio tier, which is, you're super,

talented but you're a little older you're you're past 25 so like hard to call you a prospect when you're when you're a little old there but uh super talented someone who's going to be around and you know probably get ranked at some point really like barbosa's game uh uh car kate was also like a a contender serious person who's got young and so isn't totally awful but not there i think this lines up very well for barbosa to to kind of show out more importantly Connor I want to pull this up just to make absolutely sure I have this right. I'm 100% sure I'm correct, though. Do you know the last time that a person named Barbosa fought on a card in Rio with Josealdo?

My only guess can be Edson Barbosa. That's correct. And do you know that was UFC 142? Do you know who Edson Barbosa's opponent was that evening? Is it a French person? No, it was Terry Edom. And we all remember what Barbosa did to Terry Edom that evening. And so I suspect Deoni Barbosa is about to wheel kick Crickate's face right off and put up one of the greatest highlights of all time.

Because that's what history tells us happens when a Barbosa fights with Jose Aldo and Rio. He's spelled differently, though. Yeah, but it's fine. Also, my disrespect for Carricate there. She's Lithuanian, not French. Not French. Pretty different, but it's fine. No one's going to call you on it.

I think I got confused because she fought in hexagon, M.A., which was taking place in Paris. My apologies to Ernesta there. All right, I like that, though. I love that. That's sound reasoning. You know, it doesn't matter if there's a different thing. You know, Edson Barbosa, you know, one of the best,

one of the longest tenured guys we've seen in the UFC, very, very talented. going against Deoni Barbossa who has six wins. At the time, Edson Barossa, you know, wasn't as long tenured in the UFC. And it's probably not going to be a wheel kick, but I'm thinking flying armbar. That's my official prediction. Flying Arm Bar, that's a little more her style. And that's what we're going to get. Flying Arm Bar finish.

And when that happens, I will gloat about it next week on this very podcast. I love it. All right. Ishmael Bonfim, taking on Vince Pichel, massive favorite for the Brazilian right now, minus 520 Pichel plus 390. I am using Bonfim as a parley piece. I don't think there's any shame in losing the BSD. Haven't seen Paischelle in two years, 41 years old now,

taken on a 28-year-old who I think he's super talented. Super talented and going to improve after taking his first loss in like a decade to an Uber talented BSD. Last loss actually to none of than Honato Moikano back in 2014. A little fun fact for you. a little trivia. But yeah, if they stay standing, I think Bond theme's going to look fantastic.

I think you can still have a good get-up game and handle himself on the ground, but I think the boxing gets this done for him. Firm agree. No bet, just because I already had my gimmick parlay. He is part of a separate parlay, but I'm going to wait till we're done

because I have a very gimmick parlay at the end. Good, because I also have one that we can get into. I bet it's the same gimmick parlay. Last but not least, Alessandre Costa taking on Kevin Borjas right now close to your favorite minus 1 30 Borjas plus 110 yeah it took Borjas at plus 131 I like the volume like the striking he's tough I think for effect he's better on the feet and if Costa goes for the takedowns and gets him I think you can get right back up cost as a 16% takedown accuracy and

across all of his UFC fights, he has a combined total of like two minutes and 20 seconds of control time. So I think Borjas can can get back up if this does go down. And when it is standing, I think he's got all the advantages in the volume and the power. I agree. And in fact, I took the last. Let's go. A little dog wager. Another contender series guy, prospect I like coming off the show. Wasn't a big paused guy, but was one tiered. drop below that and so a dude who i think can can develop into something good and costa's just not like also very young still certainly so uh i think this is a good opportunity for board us to to make a good impression all right your gimmick parley it's we're in brazil there are however

many fights are on this card 13 fights on this card 14 14 14 14 brazilians taking on 14 non-brilians I know that I'm betting against Vinny or betting against the main events individually, but why not? You know, what if tonight, what if this weekend is the weekend? It's not going to hit. It's not, but I'm going to throw a dollar on it. It's not going to hit. I'm going to throw one singular dollar on it.

And if it hits, I'll make 800 bucks. Okay. Because it's plus 82,272 if you parlay up all 14 Brazilians. Okay, what I did was Brazilian favorites minus Costa since I'm betting on Borjas. Okay, that makes sense. That runs down. Ishmael Bonfim, Dione Barbosa, Mauricio Huffy, Jean Silva, Elves Brenner, no, no Els Brenner, Yasminu, Jo Anderson Brito, Kayo Bahalio, Michel Pereira, Vitor Petrino, now Sean-Jay Prento.

10 legs. I went on Bet365, which is available to me in New Jersey. And like when you add more legs, it gives you like a percentage boost. And because it's 10 legs, they gave me a 45% boost. So the number for me comes out to plus 3,200. I threw enough to win a thousand on that. So let's go Brazil. I mean, someone's going to sell it, but let's go Brazil. Yeah, if I was Brazil, easy. It's not going to work. And I know this, but. Yeah, of course it's not going to work. There's no chance of works, but... If you hit, I hit, too, that's the best part.

I mean, yeah, so it's great. What if it does start happening? What if we get out there and through five fights, we're looking good? If, by some miracle, this, this parlay is live heading into the main card. When we get Kyle, we get the three minus 600 favorites. What if is going to sell it? Do you under, one, I will buy out at that point, for sure. But like, do you want, like, plus?

82,000. That's a lot. That's what they love. For something awesome. I throw a dollar on it. Sports books are salivating, hearing us talk about this. Honestly, I might throw ten dollars on it just to make $8,000. I threw $31 on, you know, I've been having a lot of success outside of MMA lately,

so I got a little extra cashieroni to play with. So I was like, yeah, $31 to win a thousand on, you know, 10 Brazilians winning. I will lose my mind. And then imagine if it makes it all the way to the main event. And then... The makes to the main event, I'm going to unload a house on Vinnie Six. Yeah. To just edge.

100%. What do we think? What do we think? How high do we think Pantosia gets to? I'm seeing minus 188. I thought he'd be minus 300. I thought he'd be a minus 300 favorite. I love you.

Like, I thought he was going to be minus 300. and because he wasn't, I played Steve Ersig plus 190. I played him for the vibes. Yeah, I understand it. We understand. We are not professional betters. We are not the best gamblers in the world. I do it for fun.

But we're going to have some fucking fun. Yes. So minus three is probably the number, like where I'd imagine he caps at. My favorite is after a bad night, someone immediately goes to either my Twitter and Instagram post of my picks and is just like, oof, or like rough night. I'm like, thanks for bookmarking this and coming back as, as, soon as the night ended. But then there's crickets when, you know, I win six and a half units on USC300.

That's my favorite. I'm just like, you take all the fun out of this for me. It's just supposed to be for fun. Yeah. If I was betting as my career, I'd be betting a thousand dollars on the all Brazilian parlay. I will also tell you. So I can retire. If I was betting, if my career was betting, no one would know what picks I was taking.

It would be all to myself. I would sit in my house. and it would be like I'm a high level stock investor. Like no one would know anything. That's how I view myself. I view myself as investing in the stocks of these fighters. That's correct. Yeah.

I'm getting in on the ground floor of N6. Joe along, boys. Dione Barbosa. That's going to the moon. All right, that's it. UFC 301 in the books. We are back next week. UFC St. Louis.

Get some ribs. get some barbecue. A little Nelly. A little Nelly, a little gooey buttercake or whatever they got out there. A little St. Louis Arch. Don't mind if I do. Who's the main event?

Derek Lewis. Rodrigo Nassiminto. Hey. Nailed it. The fight we've all, the fight that St. Louis demanded, really. The fight that St. Louis demanded. The St. Louis Parley is going to hit hard for that one.

Joaquin Buckley. I think who else is on there Sean Woodson I want to say there's one more Charles Johnson Charles Johnson so bad to me Maybe just

Maybe just a little Sean Woodson Joaquin Buckley Back next week See you then Love y'all