MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Will Khamzat Chimaev Finally Win A Title By Beating Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 319?

Episode Date: August 13, 2025

The UFC is back in Chicago! This Saturday, the UFC heads to the Windy City for UFC 319 and one of the most anticipated fights of the year. In the main event, Dricus du Plessis puts his middleweight title on the line against Khamzat Chimaev, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Action Network's Billy Ward to dive into all the fights at UFC 319. Topics discussed include du Plessis's chances at upsetting Chimaev and retaining his title, Aaron Pico's UFC debut against Lerone Murphy, Geoff Neal's shot at upsetting Carlos Prates, the weirdness of Michael "Venom" Page vs. Jared Cannonier, the latest update on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 135 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Billy Ward: @Psychoward586 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard. I'm your host, Jed Michoud, of Mayfiting.com. And it's finally here, ladies and gentlemen, the event. I personally have been waiting many months for many other people, very excited about this one as well, including my guest this week, a longtime favorite for second chair position. Action Network's Billy Ward, Billy, UFC 319, Drick has two.

plus C, Hamzaa, Shamaev. How excited are you? Yeah, very excited for that fight. Not the greatest card overall, but I think they're correctly assuming that we're all excited enough to see Hamzaat finally get the title shot that they could kind of, kind of ease off a little bit on the rest of the card, but that's fine. You know, we're doing the boxing model a little bit. Very boxing coded. Not a bad fight, though. Look, almost every fighter on this card has a Wikipedia page. That is, that's a far cry from the two weeks we've had prior. It doesn't really have like a standout co-main in that regard, but the main event, it rips.

And then like, none of the other fights are bad. None of them are really like, ooh, that like I'm super excited. But they're all like, you know, solid Bs with an A plus main event. So I'm frankly pretty, pretty pumped. In part, my boy, he's doing the damn thing. But we'll get to that in just a little bit. Before we do a very brief recap of U.S.C. Vegas 109, 109. I finally didn't have a losing week.

It's hard. I don't even want to call it a winning week because I won like 0.7 of a unit. But we didn't lose, which is a big step up for how I've been doing this year, Bill. And most importantly, the climb, one of the easiest climb bets I've ever made in my entire life, I was like, man, Anthony Fluffy Hernandez is. is only a minus 350 betting favorite. He's going to kick the absolute shit out of Roman Deleadze. And he sure did. He sure absolutely did.

It was never in doubt almost from the opening bell. So it's not the lofty heights we were to once, but three steps have now been accomplished as we try and move our way up to 30. And Bill, this week, I don't have a climb bet yet. We're going to talk through. nothing that I'm that there's there's one thing I'm kind of eyeballing but we'll get there I guess there may be two things I'm sort of eyeballing I've had some suggestions from other people about things they feel good about nothing that like jumps out of me in the way that

Fluffy jumped out of me last week where I looked at it and immediately was like I don't even care that it's only minus 350 this is this is a guarantee don't feel quite the same this week but a lot of options to talk about so Bill let's jump right into it because the main event is it's awesome it is my favorite fight that the UFC basically can make at this point in time

and I'm I'm really looking forward to it the middleweight title fight between Drichus Duplessi and Hamza Chimayev Boers finally getting his title shot it's a middleweight instead of welterweight as many people would have imagined but he is the betting

favorite the odds right now actually let me pull them up and see if they've adjusted it all. And pretty much the same. Looking around minus 240 for Hamzaa Chamey. They come back on DDP around plus 195. Bill, I'll just say this right out of the gate.

Anybody who's listened to anything I've ever done for the past several years, they know how I feel about DDP. He's my big violence goofball idiot son. And I think he's going to get the damn thing done. I, of course, have bet DDP. I did wait. I just took it earlier today. Maybe even could have waited more.

I suspect more money will come in on Chimae of as the week goes on. But I'll give you my breakdown after the fact. But let's see where you're at in this battle of UFC undefeated here, Billy. Who is walking away with the middleweight title? Yeah, I think I'm with you. If I have to pick a money-line side, especially now, it is certainly DDP. I said that in my early week's picks. I also said I'm going to wait.

I think we continue to see money come in on Hamzat, just a little bit more of a household name unless you watched the mass singer South Africa, in which case you know that DDP also has the voice of an angel on top of his silly fighting style. Beyond that, I think this is probably a really good one to attack via props. You know, Hamzot round one, Hamzot round two, could get a huge live price on DDP if Hamzot almost crushes his face but fails to do so. And I've quoted this to a lot of people, but your breakdown on DDP's cardio, for lack of a better term, on one of your shows earlier this week. week was incredible where he's just he's super tired but he just decides he isn't and somehow

works. It's exactly what it is. I didn't know how to describe the phenomenon. I'd seen the same thing. I didn't have the words for it that you put to it and it's like, yeah, he just doesn't care that he's tired. And Hamdott really cares when he's tired. If you've seen him get tired, everybody knows he's very sad about it.

It's clearly written on his face and his body. First five-round fight for him could be a generational live betting opportunity if we get the right spot. I'm probably going to have like half a unit on DDP coming in, maybe some Homsot early props, and then just waiting to jump live because that's going to be, if it, if it goes the way I think it's going to go, we could see plus three, plus four, plus 500 on DDP in a fight. He just immediately dominates after you make the bet. Oh, yeah, I'm going to smash the lives on this after round one as well, just piling more money on DDP. Like, honestly, like, that is exactly it. It's like that his cardio is that he wills himself to believe he's not tired.

Like he is physically tired. You can see him breathe through his mouth and kind of just be heaving oxygen into his lungs to, you know, supplement his gigantic muscles. But he's just, but he doesn't stop. His fighting doesn't change at all. He is throwing at the same pace. He's working just as hard because he has that like psychopath ability. to just will hit like nope he's just like green lantern iron wills is like i don't give a shit it's fine hamzad is very much not like that if hamzot's going to win i was talking about this

online with a bunch of people for weeks like it won't be shocking if hamzot gets a takedown because he's taking everybody he's fought down functionally uh and ddp does have like a tendency to sort of give up bad positions in his scrambles it's intentional he's doing it to create an opportunity to get to space into his feet. But like if he just gives up his back and Shamiya, I was like, thank you, sir. And then chokes him, it won't be like unprecedented.

Nobody should be stunned. But I, I just think people are, I've been making a lot of money on Drick's DuPlessy for a long time at this point. Because I think people just fundamentally underestimate him because he is goofy and weird. And he is. I'm not here to tell you. he is not a big violence goofball who does like makes horrible technical efforts constantly.

Like you would never teach fighters to do like half the stuff he does if you were a coach. But underpinning all of that, he is a physical hoss. And the few times we have ever seen Hamsat fight somebody like that, he's struggled. Like, Kamau Usman is also a physical hoss. And that was a tough fight for Hamzot. short notice opponent changed. Like that is that a guy who could simply meet him head on with physicality was actually like a pretty big difficulty for him. I think Drickis can certainly at least commit.

I probably would still say Hamzad is a more physically imposing individual than DDP is. But like I it's not a huge takeaway. And the biggest thing, the thing that like actually makes me, I was thinking about this this week when I was on a run. And I'm because like DDP and RDR probably my two favorite active fighters right now. I mean outside of Justin Gachie who should be everybody's favorite active fighters, Justin frigging Gichi. And it's what it is and they're very different in a lot of ways. But what it is about them is that they are big bozos who who are physical bozos,

but actually like really smart. They are big, brilliant bozos. who like, DDP, again, not a technical savant in a lot of ways, that he kind of is in some ways, but he just has really smart ideas. Like he is probably the best active game planner in the sport right now. Like you go watch the Sean Strickland rematch. And Strickland just does the exact same thing he does in the first fight. And he gets like run over because DDP is like, okay, well, I fought him for 25 minutes.

Here's how I'm going to nullify his jab in the teep. and then what's he going to do? Well, the answer was get his nose busted and bleed, apparently. Like, he, Diggis comes in with such smart ideas on how to take away his opponent's best weapons and attack them. In a way, honestly, very few fighters do as effectively as he does. And so I think he's going to be able to neutralize Hamzaa a lot more than people think early. And then just sort of DDP him down the stretch, you know, like it just, just, just, just, Just do the damn thing.

And so I looked at fight ends inside the distance as a possible climb this week. Because it's either Hamzot early or I think Drickis just sort of drowns him as this fight goes on. And that still may end up being the climb. I just haven't figured it out yet. But I love DDP. I got a plus one 95. Feel great about what he's going to do here on Saturday. Yeah, I'm with you.

The one you alluded to. to it too. You know, Usman, yes, also a very good athlete, but that was a welterweight who took the fight on a couple days' notice. He's only fought one middleweight, Hamzot, officially. That's Robert Whitaker, who is also a former welterweight and not all that big of a middleweight. His game is heavily dependent on just big brothering people, and you can't do that to DDP. Like, that's the one guy, the one guy who you could argue is more physically imposing is certainly bigger, I think, than Hamzat. So, yeah, it's going to be a rough go of it. Hamzat is the better grappler but not for very long i don't think yeah and i'm not i think he's the better grappler but i'm

honestly not even a hundred percent that that's true he's the better grappler let's not get crazy here with ddp but you got you put those guys on a he's the better wrestler for sure i'm not entirely certain did you see ddp's thing like where he just cooked uh an entire like polaris team in three minutes and then you see him talk about it because his quotes part of why i love him the big dumbo's and he is. His quotes about that are just freaking incredible. He's like, yeah, I had just beaten Strickland and I was out of shape. And so

I was like, oh, do it, sure. And I'm just going to try and kill them all quickly because I don't have the cardio. And then oops, I killed them all. It's just like, hell yeah, DDP. You big dumb dude. I'd still bet Hamzot at like minus 200 and a

you know, ADCC rules match against DDP is all I'm saying. I don't know, man. Maybe. Maybe. I mean, ADCC is maybe those rules. Or any Nogi BJJ style match, you know. But not to get too into the weeds about age DCC.

I don't know, man. I think, again, I think everybody just deeply underestimates Trichis because he looks so wonky. And they can't, they can't, like, they just can't get it over their head. It took, honestly, two full years of me being like, this guy's amazing. and him to just beat people for like freaking people on staff and him be fighting to finally be like I guess he's actually good like they just

like it is K.E. Casey Leiden was like staunchly opposed to believing DDP was good and he's like he sucks but he did just beat Sean Strickland and Robert Whitaker and Israel out of Sonia I guess he's good. Have you, did you hear the Izzy

Whitaker pod? where they talk about DDP? No, that seems like a good listen, though. Oh, it is one of, it's like after they're like buddies, and I think it's on Izzy's YouTube, it's genuinely one of my favorite pieces of MMA content in the past like three years. Because you were hearing, like, Izzy and, and Whitaker are like fight geniuses. Like, they're very obviously incredibly smart about fighting.

And they are like laughing at it at just the circumstance. of it. And I'm paraphrasing here. I strongly encourage you all to go find it. It is like, Izzy's like, dude, Dedy Blake, Drickus is real weird guy because like, I remember fighting him and thinking, he is

terrible and everything he is doing is bad. And then suddenly he was choking me out. And Whitaker's like, yeah, he's like, not good, but he keeps winning. Like, their brains cannot comprehend

that this dude is just, like, they were both just like outwardly mocking him while freely acknowledging that he kicked their asses. It was like, I don't get it. I distinctly remember being like, I'm hitting the shit out of this guy all the time. And then suddenly I was unconscious. It's the best. I love him so much. And once he beats Tom Zat, everyone has to get on board.

Like any of the final doubters that may be out there, rock on. It's DDP forever, baby. Until he fights already are. Oh, it's my favorite. I can't wait. I know how that fight's going to go. I still need to see it. I need to see it so bad.

Oh, God. And now we go from the main event that is incredible to a co-main event that's interesting. I wouldn't call it incredible. But a lot of things going on here in the featherweight division is Lorone Murphy takes on Aaron Pico. Pico, your betting favorite, oh, minus 165. Murphy plus 145. Pico, UFC debut here.

He's on a three-fight winning street coming over from Bella PFLOTor, but hasn't fought in over a year, was supposed to fight Mavsar Evluev at a fight night earlier this month. That fell through, got pushed, that fight got pushed back to here.

Our allegedly may have been pushed back to here, but was never confirmed. And then instead it's Lerone Murphy. Now Murphy, uh, 8. Oh, and 1. in the UFC eight fight, Wind Street, coming off unanimous decision win over Josh Emmett back in April.

How you see this one going, Bill? Yeah, I'm not, I'm with you. It's an interesting fight. I care about what happens. I'm not especially excited to actually be watching it, if that makes sense. I am leaning towards Lorne Murphy, though. The price is continuing to rise on him. It's as high as plus 165 if you look around.

There's a couple parts there. One, it's just these guys coming over to the UFC outside of our board. boy RDR hasn't gone great, all things considered. You know, most of them stumble, at least in that first time. I think part of it is just the long layoff, just having some of that cage rust as you're negotiating contracts and have the holding period and all that other stuff. It's hard to overcome. Pico's younger than a lot of the people we've seen make that jump, which helps.

The big technical factor for me, though, is Murphy can get taken down, but he gets right back up again. He's the Chumbawumbawumbus song. Throughout all his takedowns, or all the takedowns he's allowed in the UFC, he's averaging less than one minute of control time on his back, or control time given up. I don't know how to phrase that stat. So the judges aren't going to reward Pico for that if he just keeps getting takedowns and don't do anything with it. Murphy has the size and the length and the striking, I think, to land more on the feet,

and we're getting a mid plus money. Pretty close to a coin flip fight, in my opinion, but one guy's plus 165. I will be on the Murphy side. I don't know if I'm exactly playing it straight up, possibly Murphy by decision. He doesn't really like to finish fights, so there's that option, but we'll see what the price settles that later in the week. I don't think there's a rush to bet this one. You should absolutely be taking Murphy by decision if you're going that side of things.

It might just be the same price, though. Like some of these you don't actually get enough. Yeah, you probably won't get a lot. But like, he is just, he doesn't finish people. I guess maybe there's a world. Like, Aaron Pico does have a history of getting injured. So, like, he might break him his own self in the middle of the fight and have to step off. But unlikely, I'm going the other way.

I think Aaron Pico is probably going to win the belt. I, you know, I think that he is probably going to not, I don't think he's going to like put together a sustained featherweight run to enter that conversation, you know, with the other guys in it. But I, he's just been, his career has been awkwardly managed because he just got thrown into the fire right away as this super prospect and probably should have developed, like been developed a little more than he was. But he's sort of come through the wash. And like he's incredibly talented. And he's just now sort of hitting his athletic peak years. You know, he's 28. Like the next four or five years should be the peak of him.

Lerone Murphy is a guy that I am destined to underrate because I don't like him. Just straight up. I don't care for him because he is boring. And, you know, if you're going to be boring, I'm not going to like you. Leon Edwards didn't like him either. Balah Muhammad didn't like him either. They both became champion, so maybe Lorone will become champion in that same

milk, but like super boring Aaron Pico is not. I think he is going to come and I think he may even like really try and set a tone here, send a message because if he comes out here and just blows the door off

doors off Lorone Murphy, should it happen? No. But could he be the next guy to freaking fight Alexander Volcanovsky? it's in play right if he like really shows out because the UFC seems dead set on preventing Molfsor Evlo

from fighting for that belt for some reason and the only other like guy that could maybe jump in would be Jean Silva if Jean Silva beats the breaks off Diego Lopez at at Noce in a month and some change here so I think Pico's going to come send a message set

and put in a sterling performance and he's got crispy boxing I don't think he's going to like hold Murphy down to your point, but he doesn't need to get a takedown and spin the whole round on top. He can mix them in with some control and his boxing and just kind of have a consummate win here, even if maybe he can't get the knockout.

Because Ronald Murphy has been historically a very, very durable man. So I'm on Aaron Pico. I really also think the over here, something to look at just in general because of who Murphy, frankly, has the one side of this. but I stayed away because in the world where Empigo knocks out around Murphy immediately to get a title fight,

I don't want to be losing money in that world because that's a fun world and I'd like to live in the fun world. Do your point on the over, Murphy plus three and a half, those point spreads, not out yet. If that's close to even money, you know, does he steal one round with some bigger shots or whatever? I think that's actually probably sharp as overall way. If that's plus money, that wouldn't be bad at all.

I don't know that it will be. But yeah. But yeah, that's going to be the decision point for me defending on where this Murphy line gets to. Because it seems to keep rising. A lot of people seem to share your opinions. I don't know if it's wishcasting or genuine belief. Because both of your first two picks here have been heavily biased, I will say. Even though I agree with one of them.

So the main event is all the way biased. This is like kind of biased. But this one is absolutely wishcasting. The main event, like I just straight up believe that that is what will happen. This one is totally wishcasting, for sure, and a little bit biased because I like Carl Murphy. Let's go to the feature bout of the evening, a welterweight contest. Jeff Neal, Carlos, Prattis, Prattest, minus 265, come back on Neal plus 215. Neal, coming off a win.

I think he had lost a pair before that, but a TKO win injury over Hafeld Dos Anjos in October. And Prattest, you know, hot start in the UFC. It was, I think, our breakout fight of the year that year in 2024. But then Enochiz and lost to Ian Machado Gary. And sort of a curious one where, like, it looked like he was just going to lose comfortably. And then he started storming back, but still Ian Machado Gary, you know, had enough grit to him to get the dub there. Protest, fairly big favorite, not like a massive one, but like a considerable one against the guy like Jeff Neal, who has been a hard fight for. every single human being he's ever stepped in against.

Is that fair, Billy? I was thinking along the same lines you were when I first looked at this fight, that, you know, Jeff Neal, he kind of does that to people, right? He's the new generation Neil Magne of seeing if you're really that good. But then I was starting to look at some of the totals, and the under two and a half is minus 154. Prochase is minus 250 and has never won a fight by decision in the UFC. If he wins, it's because he kills you.

and we're getting, you know, a dollar better price on the under two and a half. And that under two and a half also includes Jeff Neal landing a big shot. He's finished five of seven UFC wins. Big boy hits hard. Prochus gets a little wild. I don't know why we don't just play the under two and a half or fight ends inside the distance here. I think it covers the likeliest win condition from both guys. So it feels like a best of both worlds to me.

If you want to get greedy and play Jeff Neal at 2 to 1, sure. I get the case for it. I just minus 154 on the under 2 and a half, maybe a little better some places. feels like the better bet. I really thought about getting greedy and playing Jeff Neal 2 to 1. I ultimately decided not to because I do, I think this fight,

this is pure vibes for me. I think this fight ends up being, uh, the Shavkat fight or something similar. It's like Jeff Neal looks good, like looks better, you know, like it is a hard fight for Carlos protest,

but ultimately protest does get his hand raised. And so, uh, that would just be throwing money away. And, uh, again, completely at odds.

I have no statistical, mathematical basis for this. The over two and a half is a plus 120, and I'm just feeling it. I'm feeling that this is going to go to the cards, that this is, that Jeff Neal is just going to make this sort of a tough fight for Carlos protest. He's not just going to get his doors blown off.

They're going to dig deep. I think this fight's going to be awesome. And I think that this fight goes super late, maybe even to the cards. So plus money, over two and a half, I'll be sweating it literally every second of the fight. But again, this is not based on like, actually, they know, like, the, it should not be this way. But I'm feeling it.

And so I'm going for it. Take it. I'm having some fun this week because why not? Vibes based betting. We call that sometimes. There's a lot of vibes going on this week. There are a lot of vibes happening for me this week because it's not like picking one my head's paid off. So might as well lock the vibes.

We keep moving. Jared Canineer, Michael Venom, Page, a middleweight contest. Canineer, you're betting Underdog Plus 160 MVP, around minus 190 MVP, his second fight up at middleweight coming off the United States. And win over Sharra Bullitt in February. A cannoneer got back in the win column in February as well. A TKO winner, Gregory, Robocop Rodriguez, in a fight that he was losing until Robocop's gas fell apart.

and Cannoneer kind of blew them up. Super weird one here. I don't know what this fight means. It just is a fight. I have a very clear read on this fight. What is your read on this fight? I'm sure mine is going to be totally different because I am going to the prop market when these come up.

I think Jared Cannoneer gets a takedown or two here, and I'm interested to see the price we get on that. MVP been taken down in two of his three UFC fights by Ian, Gary, and Kevin Holland. Kevin Holland doesn't even want to get takedowns. If Kevin Holland takes you down, it was an accident. And Jared Cannoneer is much slower and has been knocked out and knocked down, and I thought he was done a couple times, both before and during that Hobocop's fight.

He better wrestle here. He should. He's the bigger, stronger guy, you know, former heavyweight fighting a guy who should be a welterweight. If we can get plus money, even on over one and a half takedowns for Cannonier, I think that's where I'm going. Not really worried about Page finishing him. He doesn't throw with a lot of volume. and he doesn't hit all that hard at this point in his career, especially against bigger guys.

So that is what I'm looking for. No idea what the prices are going to be. Those are wild. They move around even when they are posted. You know, Ursaac last week was my big takedown prop guy. Got plus money on over one and a half, but they took that down, and you had to bet, you know, huge juice at over half. Could see a similar situation here.

But trying to get plus money on over one and a half takedowns or even like even money or not too much juice on a takedown for Cannonier, I think is how I'm playing. playing it. That'd be pretty fun. I don't have any of those props at hand. I think Jared Kennedy is going to, yeah. I think Jared Kennedy is going to lose his fight because Michael Vennepage is, he's not like a, he's a great striker in that he wins striking fights.

He's not like, it just is what it is. Like nobody who's really spent the full breadth of a fight striking with MVP. has, has beaten him. It just hasn't, I mean, Diego Lima a billion years ago, but he was losing until he just sort of landed that perfect right hook off the leg kick. It's just like MVP just kind of wins.

His style is super weird and people can't figure it out. Jared Kennedy is very slow now. I don't think he's going to be able to counter MVP well. And so unless he does go for takedowns, which would be an interesting wrinkle, I don't think it's going to happen. I think he's just going to lose like a classic MVP throws one strike of every minute

and those five strikes all land and he wins the fight. As Jared Kennedy or just kind of marches forward, plods around, doesn't get anything going. That being said, I don't love the price. I mean, it'd be fine price, but like, what do I care? I don't need to be betting this.

I may end up actually just pulling the trigger on MVP. But what I'm really looking at here, the thing that I am the most considering of is the over one and a half. half because at the book I have available to me right now that over is minus 750 that is outside of our climb realm I might make an exception because and it would be an exception with cause here one I just feel really good about it a canoniers hit the over one and a half and nine consecutive fights MVP's done it in five this past six like it just seems really unlikely that we're getting

something early here. And two, Woffie Hernandez was well underpriced, right? Like I got him at 350. And the other two legs of this climb I got at minus 425. So like I'm, I've banked some goodwill. 750 is outside of our normal climb zone. But because I've got like functionally minus 300 or so in unused climb real estate, I could maybe just give give some of that here to this.

one that I like and we move forward. I haven't figured out if that's acceptable behavior or not, frankly, but it is, like, of the climb bets, this is the one that I think I feel the best about. I fully endorsed that behavior when I was doing it and I will be starting it again this weekend, as we'll talk about later. I made a spreadsheet ahead of time with where minus 500 would get you, you know, week by week. And as long as I stayed above that mark, I've counted that as fair. I actually gave myself a free step because I got two steps past.

because I had bet enough, you know, short of minus 500. So I think as long as you're hitting the average of 20% return per bet that you would get from a minus 500 bet, you are well in the clear. I know there are obviously no rules to this and such that there are rules you are entirely responsible for arbitrarily deciding them. But I think that should be the general target because it keeps you on that pace that we're shooting for. You know, that's that's sort of my kind of philosophy here, right? is to like I think and again like I do if you just look at the other ones I've made it does feel like I'm like I'm okay here like I will have accomplished the goal that I want to have set out if I do this I'm actually going to pull that up and so like I would if if I take this one I'll be ahead of the pace for four at minus 500 functionally I haven't there are some other things I'm kicking around stay stay tuned to my socials I'll let you know whatever the climb bet's going to be um But this was the one that was the leader in the clubhouse for me if I felt that I was okay. I'm glad to have your blessing on this one.

And if not, we're going to roll it up in a parlay with some other big favorites to just try and get a dub in. And that takes us to the final main card fight of the evening, a flyweight contest, Tim Elliott taking on Kai Asakura. Asakura, one of the bigger betting favorites on the whole card. Is he the biggest betting favorite on the whole card? No. No, no, no. he's not wow okay um but the second biggest betting favorite on the whole card kai saccura minus 310 tim elliott plus 250 elliott three and two over his past five but he hasn't fought in 20 months

he has not fought since december of 2023 where he submitted sumadairji kai sacora uh he lost his last fight was also his uc debut was also a title fight lost by tech sub to alhandre pantosia not sure the last time we had a guy coming off a tech sub win fight a guy coming off a tech sub loss but we got that here for the main card opener uh how do you feel about this one bill because i i don't know how i feel about this fight frankly i don't either i'm probably not betting it we're still uh negotiating who's doing which fight previews over at the action network this week so i may end up having to dive deep and bet it my first read is tim a elliott is the kind of guy who can either win against or lose to absolutely anybody, much like the flyweight Michael Johnson, as I tend to

think of him. So if you're getting plus 250 and climbing on him against Kai Asakura, Elliot's never even been knocked down in the UFC. Probably a grappling advantage, maybe, because he's such a weirdo grappler. I can see the path here. Also, a little sprinkle on Elliott by submission could be fun, neither of which would be a big bet or a confident bet for me. But I can see the case, I guess, but Asakura should win.

I just don't know. Don't know that he does. Things I see the case because, like, Asakura kind of overswings. He could easily just get tackled and grappled. Problem is, I don't know, Tim L. He hasn't, is fucking almost 40 and hasn't fought in 20 months. Not great. And the other thing, which honestly, I did, like, this shocked me.

I double-checked you to make sure I was right. He's only one in seven as an underdog, right? Like, it feels like he has good performances as a little. an underdog. Yeah. Or like famously the DJ fight, he had no chance and then he was very competitive. But he's actually not winning the fights.

So it's not like, like I don't even feel good about an underdog bet because it's like, all right, well, yeah, he may well come out and be like a- Cover the price. Yeah, like exactly, cover the price and still lose the goddamn fight.

And so what I've circled for this one is I want to see what the point spread is. Because as a big underdog, I actually think you might get a really enticing price on a point spread, and I might be a lot more interested in that for Tim Elliott. So depending on what that comes in looking like and what the price is on it, that's sort of what I have circled here because I don't feel like I should bet Kyas Sikour. I had somebody tell me that Kyosikor should be the climb this week. I was like, no.

And then that's when I figured out that actually Tim Elliott doesn't win as an underdog. I was like, oh, actually, it wouldn't be the worst thing. but I'm not going to do it. I'm going to look at that point spread bet when it drops. Makes sense. I think you'd need at least plus money. Probably on that would be your price target. That's the thing.

I think we're going to get plus money. They've been so aggressive on pricing those lately, though, especially with these lighter weight class fights. They know we're going to the decision. So same issue I have with the other Laurel Murphy that we discussed. But yeah, if we get plus money on either of those, but I'm not sure that we will. We will see. And that moves us to the prelims and we'll be a little bit more.

expeditious with our speed here. Lightweight contest for the prelim main event. King Green, taking on Carlos Diego Faheta, Green, plus 140 underdog. CDF minus 160. Green on a two-fights kid coming off that brutal knockout loss to Maricio Ruffy back in March. CDF coming off unanimous decision

lost to Grant Dawson in January. Billy, I'm going to take the lead on this one because I did something that I already regret, but we're here with it, so we're locked in. And that was, I took King Green as an underdog. Oh, no. Oh, no. I don't, again, I

said I already regret it. It was not a choice that I, I was vibing it and I was like, you know, I think he's kind of live here, right? Like, his chin might be faded, but CDF just like swings hammers. So as long as he can get hit by, like,

the hammer, it's not like CDF tackles a lot of people. Bobby's, like, not a bad defensive wrestler. I'm sorry, King, not Bobby. And I regret it, but it is the room I'm in is backing King Green. So that's how it is. I am not doing that, as my visceral reaction would heavily imply. Waiting to see what we get for Diego Feta by knockout or inside the distance.

I think Bobby's just broken. Five months after that, like, this is a semi-quick turnaround after getting murdered by Maricio Hoofee. The Jalen Turner fight, he got knocked out like three times. I just watched that stoppage back again. That took many years off his career and life. Only win after that was the corpse of Jim Miller. Jim Miller almost knocked him out at UFC 3002. Jim Miller was hurting him before Jim Miller ran out of gas, as he always does.

So just not great feelings on King Green, who's been finished in the first round, every time he's fought not Jim Miller for the last couple of years. So I will be on Diego Faheda by finish of some kind, either knockout or just general finish depending on the price. Yeah, we're going to see about cashing that one out. I don't know what I was thinking yesterday. I genuinely like yesterday I did it, and then today I was looking at it before we got on this and was like, what was that about?

I wasn't your best choice so you've ever made. So I'll probably take a small loss to cash that one out. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99. How could I resist? This luxurious wool throw for my sister.

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Gerald Meershardt taking on Miguel Olix Elychek, Olegsacechuk minus 220. Mearshar, plus 195 or so, Mearshard on a two-fight skid. unanimous decision lost to Brad Tavares back in April. Oleg Seych wasn't a three-fight skid, but then he T-K-O'd Ced D'Rig Duma back in April.

I have clear thoughts on how I think this does go, but I don't believe these odds are correct, Billy, because I think McEllul Elyle-Olix is just going to come in and throw the kitchen sink at knockout jailed, Mearsart. I don't think I should be laying $2.20 on that particular price. Yeah, ironically, the only bet I have made so far on this card because I've been mainly focused on the contender series is Gerald Mearschart. He submits everyone that he beats,

and Ola J-Tuck got submitted by Michelle Peda and Kevin Holland on that three-fight losing streak. As I pointed out before, Kevin Holland... Known submission artists. Right. Kevin Holland only grapples by accident. Like, if you're grappling with Kevin Holland, something went wrong for him, and he still broke his arm. Like, shout out to Mihail for not tapping, I guess,

but what were you going to do with that? And then beating Sidrique Dumas doesn't mean anything. Like, you get zero points for that. So, yeah, why not? GM3, I put half a unit out his money line. I'm hoping somebody at the books fat fingers it and gives us a better price

on his submission, even though his submission prop should literally be his money line. Like, there should be no discrepancy between those numbers. if there is one, yeah, let's take the few extra cents for the other half unit I'm going to have on this one. I'll say another piece about this one. This, I mean, I guess still could be considered a contender for the climb.

The inside the distance here, minus 350, Mikhail Oakhsechuk, in their combined past 20 fights, they've gone to decision five times. They just don't. Oleg Seychic is a kitchen sink kind of. dude. He just comes out just dumping everything he's got. And Mearschart mostly gets blown up where he submits his opponents. Probably just not going to pick that to be the climb, but that is going to be thrown in in some sort of a parley soup, if nothing else. So something to consider as we move on down the road to women's straw weight.

Jessica Androge is back at 115. She takes on Lupi Godinez. Godinez, you're betting favor of her on minus 150 to come back on Androge plus 135, Androge. I said back at 115. She is not a two-fight losing streak. Both of those were up at women's flyweight. Submission lost to Yasmin, Yasadavisish, back in May.

Godinez. Hit her missed lately. Three and two over a past five coming off your name is a win over Julia Plastri. How do you see this one, Bill? I could be talked into a lot of thoughts here. I could too. This is a lean.

I have not bet anything yet or even strongly considered it. Lean in a little bit towards Androdd, she's kind of got the Kevin Holland thing going, where she loses a couple fights at a heavier weight class, and then we get a better price on her to lower weight class. Then she wins a fight, now she's a favor again. We probably stay away. We've seen that story play out a few different times, I think, throughout her career. I'd have to go back and see the order and the closing line. So probably on the Undraud's hoping we get a better price later in the week. It's moved a little bit up. If we don't, I probably just don't bet it. Again, another one that the point

Point spread would make a lot of sense here because Loopy's best option is to just try to hold her down and not finish her, which hard to win three rounds doing that. Guessing the point spread will be heavily juiced to the underdog, so it'll be plus three and a half as minus 180 or something. At a point, just take the money line. And, you know, a fight this likely to go to the distance, one person's going to kind of boringly wrestle, one's going to try to swing and actually do stuff. Sometimes the judges will give a bad decision to the person trying harder, so that would be Jessica and Judge as well. Yeah, again, another one I'm kind of looking at the point spread as an option here. It's hard to trust Jessica. It's going to be terrible, though. It's going to be terrible, but it's just hard for me to trust

Jessica and Josh. She's not a flyweight. I'm glad she's maybe stopping to do that. It is exactly the Kevin Holland thing. But like only a small amount of disrespect to Janja Nan. That fight just is stuck in my head of her just like walking headlong into fucking hooks from Janjaunan. who's like a good fighter but shouldn't have blown her up like she did. Like I feel like, just honestly, I feel like Androge is regressing.

And, you know, her wins, such as they've come lately, are against McKinsey Dern, who is one of the more limited fighters competing at a very high level. And Marina Rodriguez, in a splitie that Marina is, isn't Marina Rodriguez retired? Isn't she done now? Can she give up? I think I'm... Sounds right, but I'd say I'm pretty sure she was. tired because after that she lost two more and then was like I'm done with the game anyway.

And so it's just I don't have any level of confidence in Jessica and Drodge at this point. At her peak at her prime, she should run over Lupi Godinez, who is like a fun scrapper, but sort of in my mind the like definition of a top 12 person, somebody who is just good enough to beat most people, but never going to climb the ranks. I'm going to guess loopie wins this. I can't I can't put any money. unless somehow the point spread is just not terrible. So that's where we're at and we'll move on to the final prelim card fight

before we get to the early prelims. A lightweight contest, biggest betting favor on the card. Chase Hooper takes on Alexander Hernandez. Hooper, minus 310 betting favorite Hernandez plus 270. Hooper, 5 and 0 since moving up to 155. On a hell of a run right now, unanimous decision win. over Jim Miller back in April. Hernandez two-fight winning streak of his own.

United decision win over Kurt Holliba in March. Billy, does Chase Hooper deserve to be the biggest betting favorite on this card? I believe he does, and he is, in fact, my climb. This is climb 3.0 for me, stuff one. Going with Chase Hooper. Yeah, I mean, our little boys growing up, he's put some muscle on. He's out here doing stuff. The big thing for me, though, is Alexander Hernandez,

has arguably lost four fights in a row because he somehow got a unanimous decision over Kurt Hollabaw. I head over to MMAD decisions. I do not see a Jed Mishu scorecard, but most people scored that for Kurt Hollabaw. And the fight before that for Hernandez, split decision went over Austin Hubbard. Also fairly controversial. I was trying to stall by talking to see if you scored that one on MMA decisions, but I can't find that that quick. He's just not that great.

You know, he can do some cool stuff in the first round, but if you try that against Chase Hooper, he'll just take you down and try really cool submissions that don't work while winning on points the whole fight. So, yeah, Chase Hooper, if I was on, you know, double-digit steps again probably wouldn't be doing that. But for step one, bank a little bit extra juice because it's only minus 345, minus 350. I made that bat right before I hopped on air with you. So that is the other, that is how I'm attacking this one is as my climb. I don't hate it. I mean, Hernandez, Hooper's just.

like he's getting good he is getting good he's not great yet but he's getting really really decent his striking has come a long way it's still not called a strength but it is no longer just the massive glaring weakness it used to be and that's all it used to be yeah and he's obviously a talented grappler um and hernandez gives up takedowns right like he that is a thing that has happened to a lot in his career i won't be climbing with it just because i still have a little bit of reticence like just about Chase Hooper despite the fact that he's getting good you know like the I don't want to take away from his current win streak because I think it's a good win streak given the context of his career but you step back Slava Clause I mean that's

that that's just a gimmie that was the most layup win they could give him right like here's a guy who can't grapple or defensively wrestle you got it like I could He dropped him standing, though. He did, which was, again, interesting. I don't know who Nick Fiore is. I can't picture him in my head. He's a wrestler. Yeah, Jordan Levitt is Jordan Levitt.

Clay Guida is, again, like a veteran. All this dirt. And also, Chase Hooper had beaten him in a grappling match. So it was just like, here are layups. And then Jim Miller, hard-nosed veteran, who I got a lot of love and respect for. Jim Miller has 48 UFC fights, right? Like this is, and is functionally like kind of just like Clay Guida plus. Like he's just like the, the Ur-Cla-Guida.

So they've really brought him along. Alexander Hernandez is a fair departure from that kind of caliber up to like, hey, here's a guy in the relative prime of his career, physical athlete, you know. Like, there's a gap there. and so I can't trust a climb with him. But I do think he's going to win. And I frankly, I look forward to the Chase Hooper career arc has been fascinating. And we'll see if it continues on on Saturday. And we'll move to the early prelims.

I got thoughts about this one. It's a lightweight contest. Edson Barbosa taking on Dracar close. Barbosa minus 170 close plus 145. Barbosa hasn't fought in over a year. Univision lost to Lorone Murphy. in not this most recent May, but May of 2024. Close was on a four-fight windstreet before Joel Alvarez killed him in December,

with a jumping knee, I believe, if memory serves. Billy, how do you feel about this one? Because I have a clear side. I don't have a clear side, but they re-added a women's fight to this card, also featuring a Barbosa. There's a really good... option out there for sure. That's where I'm leaning.

I actually, I think I'm slightly leaning towards both Brazilians, both Barbosa's, Barbosa, if you will, here, I don't have strong feelings on this one. If Edson Barbosa weren't old and if he had fought any time in the last year, I would probably confidently be betting on him. Otherwise, he is gimmick parlay territory only for me. I love that for you. I have a bet on Jack Carr close. Edson Barbosa is roughly 200 years old.

In his prime, I would pick him confidently. But even in their primes, I think Jock R Close was this dude that was just underrated. Like he was, he was always one of those guys that I would point to him. Like, like, lightweight is the best division. Because Jock R Close is on like a six-fight win streak and is super good. And he's like top 25 in the world or whatever. Like he's not sniffing a number. Edson Barbosa certainly has higher peaks.

But he is old. you know he is he's been i think the move back to lightweight i at least like for him but he's just he's been doing this so long and if you look at his resume it's just a murderer's row of talent he he hadn't gotten an easy fight in forever and i can't i think he's done it's time long layoff too gives me concern i think jockart close i think this should at least be a coin flip so you're getting pretty decent value with close plus one 145, which is the price I got him earlier in the week. I think that numbers come down a little bit.

But, yeah, so I'm on Jockar closed. Which otherwise, because I was looking at it as a, certainly as a gimmick parlay potential, can't do it. Let's move to the middleweight. Another sort of weird fight here that makes a lot of sense. Got a few of those matchups this week. Like, kind of, there's something curious about them, but a lot of smart matchmaking.

As Brian Battle takes on Nur-Sulton-Ruzaboiev, Battle, Your betting favorite minus 170, Ruzaboyev plus 140. Battle 4-0-1. No contest over his past five. A split decision went over Randy Brown in December that most people did think he won. Ruzaboyev 4 and 1 in the U.C.

A two-fight winning streak. The United States decision went over Dustin Stolfeuts back in May. The reason this fight is curious and interesting. It is Brian Battles move back up to middleweight. Ruzaboyev fighting a middleweight has previously tried to drop down to welterweight despite being eight feet tall and like did make it but these are two should be middle weights with some history at welterweight and brian battle now moving up for real after several failed weight cuts how do you see this one going bill yeah i know

it's become kind of the uh the cool thing on mama twitter and m msgambling spaces to hate on nersersen ruseboev and there's there's some reasons for that he's kind of one dimensional with that big right hand. But Brian Battle's not great, I don't think. I think he was kind of weight-bullying people. Yes, he probably deserved the win against Randy Brown, but when you miss by five pounds and need a split decision in my head, that's kind of a loss. So I'm going to Roosoboyev plus 136, maybe Roossoboeuf by knockout. Battle also hits hard, but he was hitting Welterweight's hard, and I don't know how much good that's going to do you at middleweight, especially you can't reach the guy, because all of a sudden Brian Battle does not have the height and length advantages that

he enjoyed it. Walter Waite. He's on the other side of it. So fraud's a boy of as people calls him. I think we're going to get one more good fight out of him before we get a really good fade spot in the next opportunity. I'm on the same. And it is entirely because he is much bigger than Brian Battle. And this will be the first time in forever that Brian Battle is going to be fighting a dude who he's not just substantially larger than. And I don't know how that's going to go. But I feel like shouldn't be better like he's too big a favorite. And you know, I just kind of feel like he's live here as a dog, Ruzaboyev. So taking Ruzaboyev, going to see how that runs.

And we move on to we've got two. I see that there's like a third fight. So there's definitely two more fights. There might also be a third fight, but we're not going to talk about that one yet. Because we don't even know who that other, technically, I'm but no, but we're not going to say that. But the last, like, real, real fight is a women's flyweight contest, Creeny Silva taking on Deani Barbosa, the aforementioned second Barbosa. She is plus 170, Silva minus 2.25.

Silva, 4 and 1 in the promotion, coming off you, unanimous decision lost to Viviani Arrugio in November. Barbosa, 2 and 1 in the UFC, a contender series product, who's coming off a submission win over Deanna Belbita in April. Bill, you mentioned the Barbosa Parlay, and you mentioned that you kind of like Barbosa to get the dub here. Tell us why. I do. This one I'm actually more seriously interested in than Edson.

Edson is strictly for gimmick purposes. In Karini Silva's, honestly, I'm not going to count. I'm going to approach this from the other way. In Deani Barbosa's third professional fight, she defeated Karini Silva back at a katana fight event in 2019. This is actually a rematch. I didn't know this until I was digging through. I didn't realize that at all. Right.

See, I'm breaking news here. Breaking news. Six-year-old news. Six-year-old news, but Barbosa's a very talented grappler. I saw on her Instagram. She recently celebrated the 10th anniversary of getting her black belt. Makes her a third-stripe black belt. Probably not as good of a striker as Crini Silva,

but Carini also likes to grapple, which could be a problem for her here if she engages with that at all. I think we just see a good old-fashioned no-gee grappling match that Barbosa is probably should be the actual A-side on as long as she doesn't try to strike. And we're getting her at plus 180. So, Deani Barbosa, too again defeat Karini Silva. Yeah, that's all I got. I am also on that. And I was before I even know she already beat her.

I think this is going to be a grappling match. And I think Deany Barbosa is as talented, if not a more talented grappler. and so certainly getting her at a fairly substantial underdog price. The concern, obviously, Silva was set to fight on this card. She was booked against J.J. Aldrich. And so Barbosa's stepping in a little bit of short notice, but that's now entirely offset by knowing that Barbosa's already beaten her. Had I known that before, I would have done this more confidently.

But I'm already on Deani Barbosa as an underdog. So Bob's your uncle, there we go. One last fight that we can talk about that is for sure happening. There's another potential one that's coming in, but it is Alibi Adiris. That's actually, I'm pretty sure his name is Ali B. But against Joseph Morales, this is the tough finale. It's the flyweight tough finale for the most recent season of tough. Because UFC 319 is also the tough 37 finale or whatever tough we're at.

Billy, I have watched absolutely zero of this season of the Ultimate Fighter. I didn't realize that Joseph Morales is a UFC veteran, fought three times in the promotion, then went to tough. Adiris 10-0 in his professional career. And from my own personal tough expert, Alexander K. Lee, he says, no odds as of yet on this, but he's like, I'm not. going to be picking Joseph Morales. I don't know if he's going to be the underdog or not, but that's the guy I think is going to get it done. That's all the breakdown I can give on this fight because I don't know a single thing about anything that's happened on the ultimate fighter. Yeah, it was about seven seconds ago that I learned that this is the ultimate finale. Their exhibition bouts not listed on their topology. They are not. I am also learning that live as we speak. I did make a note that tough runout to get cut from the UFC for Joseph Morales because he got knocked out by Davy Figgs and then lost a split decision. And then they dumped him, which, you know, with hindsight being what it is, probably should have just

kept him around the first time. Still not too old of a guy. Still only 30, you know, 24, 23 in there with Davidson Federato. Probably should have given him a second shot. Idris Elba looks like just the next Kazakh grappler guy. Nice. Idris Elba. I'm pretty sure that's how you say his name. I'm not going to argue.

Stringer Bell. That is definitely who is fighting on Saturday. Yeah. I would make him about a minus 250 favorite based on like vibes in him being from Kazakhstan, which historically has correlated strongly with winning MMA fights. So yeah, if the price comes in better than that, I am very confident that he will be lined as the favorite. It's just to what degree. And that's it.

That's all UFC 319. There is also a PFL on Friday. Pretty sure that's Friday, right? I'm sorry. No, is that Friday or is that third? Are they doing the cool PFL thing where Let me confirm this. I know that there's a I know that there's a PFL.

No, it is Friday. Okay. Yeah. PFL on Friday. I was looking at that. It's like maybe we climb with PFL, but like, I don't want to lay. I don't want to lay that price on Liz Carmouch, who's actually 40, even though she's going to beat Geno Bishop still.

Like, bed and a 40-year-old to the climb is pretty tough. So, and frankly, the rest of the PFL, it's not a bad car, but, not something I'm massively interested in. So that's everything we got. Billy, tell the people they can find you. Yeah, over on Actionnetwork.com or Twitter, Psycho Award 586. It's Contender Series season. I do a full betting preview.

You guys are going to hear this after the first one is up. So be sure in future weeks to go check those out. Did really well in those last year. If it turned out that I screwed up the first one, then just forget I said that. Nice. It is Continuous Series. George Mango is going to be a future champion. by the way.

George Mangan. That's the only thing I'm going to say. Okay. Not even a big betting favorite. He's not even a big betting favorite tonight. I look forward to it. Contender series, I do a recap every week and then a season long recap where I sort of grade out the prospects that get signed off it.

So that begins tonight. Go ahead. Give that first round pick to Mungos. We'll see. You know, I, one of the things I do is I don't look at, I don't look at, I don't watch any of their fights. I just I base my vibes entirely off of their contender series fights and looking at their resume. So we'll see how we feel. Billy, thank you for joining. Thank you all for listening. U.S. 319 Saturday. The return to

Chicago. I think it's been like a decade plus since they've been back to Chicago. And then after this one, folks, no rest. No rest for the wicked as after you see 319. We're heading to Shanghai, baby. That is right. Johnny Walker, Zhang Mingyang. I gotta tell you right now, folks. Let me actually see if there are even odds already for this, because if so, I can tell you what next week's climb is going to be. Come on, give me, why are there no, give me the Zhang? Okay, there are no odds up yet, but I'm just going to go ahead and tell you it's, uh, Zhang Mingyang is going to be the climb next week, ladies and gentlemen. Johnny Walker going to die.

He going to die good. But we will get to all of that next week on No Betts Barrett. Again, thank you all for listening. Billy, thanks for stopping by. Love y'all. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to luxe beauty and fragrance sets. Our special selection has something for every style and price point.

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