MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Leon Edwards And Tom Aspinall Retain Their Titles On Home Soil At UFC 304?

Episode Date: July 24, 2024

The UFC is back across the pond! This Saturday, UFC 304 takes place in Manchester, England and for the first time ever, and English UFC card will feature two English champions. In the main event, Leon Edwards puts his welterweight title on the line in a rematch with Belal Muhammad and in the co-main event, Tom Aspinall puts his interim heavyweight title up in a rematch with Curtis Blaydes. On top of that, there are 12 other big time matchups, so the No Bets Barred boys are back with a full breakdown of the event. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a brief discussion of last week before diving into UFC 304. Will Belal Muhammad make good on his one chance to win the belt? Can Tom Aspinall continue his streak of first-round finishes? Will Paddy Pimblett make the leap against perineal contender King Green? And just how many Cage Warriors champions are competing on this card exactly? All this and a lot more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 95 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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UFC 304, the promotion heads across the pond this time to Manchester, England, the co-op arena, brand new venue there in Manchester. I mean, I love English Fight Weeks. I'm as excited as it gets. A lot of my guys on this card. My brother Jedd, how we do? Good, baby, good. It's always fun to have a pay-per-view fight week. It's just, it's always a good time.

And this is a pretty decent card. There's a lot of, like, weirdness in the undercard, certainly. It's not going to knock your socks off, but very regional. But the main card or, you know, the top six, seven fights here, really, really good stuff. So pretty pumped about it, man. Yeah, I'm stoked to the max. last week UFC Vegas 94

essentially broke even week before that UFC Denver I think I lost like a unit so yeah I'm just kind of puttering along for the last few months here I only didn't end up doing no bets part last week

because I was coming off vacation and time got away but put a few bets in didn't go so hot took a couple stabs didn't take the week all that seriously either lost a couple units you know, foolishly betting Mike Perry at plus 400 or something to hope. That didn't work out for me.

Yeah, that'll get you. And an Amanda Limo, Steve Garcia birthday parlay that, you know, one half did their job, but the other did not. But then I had some money on the Iron Turtle, but obviously that fell through. So tough week, not like terrible, Walls 2 units still up on the year. And this week, I decided to go from not having much action at all. all last week to over extending myself far beyond what I needed to do this week. So it should be a good time.

I knew I was going to have a lot of action on this card. I knew I was going to be very invested. I mean, a couple of my favorite fighters are going this week. There's just, there's an aura in the air when it's when it's an England card too. I love it. I know the crowd's going to be on fire. So, yeah, I knew I was going to be involved and I certainly am. And I am looking forward to it.

Yeah, just a quick note on your last week. Yeah, I found that trying to fade Jake Paul. in boxing with MMA fighters just typically doesn't work out. Yeah, I thought that Jake Paul could probably would win, but it was just such a big number on Mike Perry

and we've never seen Jake Paul in a real fight. I was like, yeah, Perry will start brawling with him and then let's see what happens. And for like a half around, you know, Jake Paul had to kind of figure it out. And then Mike Perry's just firm belief that defense is optional. meant that I knew very early in.

It was like, oh, well, you know, it was nice because plus 400, that's going to get me a big pay. I was like, eh, whatever. We lost it. Chalk this one up. We'll move on next week and try a little harder. That's what we're going to do. Let's kick it off. Main event, UFC 304, Manchester, England.

Leon Edwards taking on Balal Muhammad. Right now you can get Leon Edwards minus 250. Bala Muhammad coming back at plus 205. 12 straight wins for Leon Edwards, 13 fight on beaten streak, nine straight wins for Balaamah, 10 fight on beaten streak. The one fight that they have is mutual. That ended in a no contest back in 2021. Walterway title on the line now in Leon's home country.

Probably, Balaal's only shot at a title. If he loses, he is almost certainly not going to get another shot. I love it. It's high stakes. Do I think it's going to be the most entertaining fight in the world? Probably not. But high stakes in front of what should be a raucous crowd at like 5.30, 6 a.m. in Manchester. I'm looking forward to it, man. How do you feel about the fight itself? I am, so I have been for months and months, basically all year long been calling this the leafy vegetables. You know, this is your leafy greens. Nobody's going to be that excited about this fight. You know, it's, It's Leon Spallaw. It's two decision merchants. It's guys who, you know, they're just not going to get you pumped up in the same way that Leon versus Shafkot would, you know. But this is an exceptional fight.

If you put away the entertainment aspect of this, you know, the drawing eyeballs in, if you're doing this from a sporting, from a meritocratic view, this is exceptional. We're talking two of the 20 best fighters in the world are competing. And that's, that's rare. We don't get two of the 20 best pound for pound fighters in the world fighting. So that's awesome. And I'm trying to come through and not be like, this is boring because I don't, that's just too easy to say, okay, this fight will happen.

It's fine. I want to be excited. I can't get excited, but I am certainly very interested in what happens. In part because I spent the last month really trying to talk myself into Bilal Muhammad. And unfortunately, I can't get there. I don't know where you're at on this fight. I can't get, but I was like, it would be funny if Balaamahman wins.

Like Leon's been very dismissive of this man. Like Leon, this is his one chance. If he loses, he'll never get it again. And so if Boulah Muhammad kind of the also ran the black sheep of the Walterweight Division gets his shot and then wins it, that'd be pretty cool. I don't think it's going to happen, though, Connor. I it just seems like he's is a pretty tough matchup for him at least from my perspective what do you think i agree with you in terms of uh the the excitement surrounding the actual fight itself i just with the way that these guys fight with how much is on the line i i do just have a hard time

uh seeing this one being just like an absolute barn burner uh which you said decision merchants uh i will be using the over one and a half as a parley piece. Yep. Both of them. Same. Both of them. 14 straight over the one and a half for both of them.

Minus 600 on that, I feel like that's a very solid parlay piece. In terms of the fight itself, don't want to hear about last time because it was over three years ago at this point. And we only saw one round. We saw Bilal Mohama get chinned in like 60 seconds against Vicente Lucke and then come back and whoop up on them in the rematch. Things change. fighters evolve scenarios are different i'm not too concerned about that but no no have you have you

been on the internet for the past two weeks all i am seeing is oh leon was destroying him we don't even need this fight leon was killing him yeah it was one round no don't forget hey don't forget kirtis blades won every exchange in that tom aspin oh yeah that's seen some of those do not forget that I swear to God if I see another one of those. It was 15 seconds. It was a 15 second from opening bell to the time Tom Aspinall was clutching his knee on the ground that was going to take surgery and put him out for a year. But Curtis won that seconds. He won every exchange.

He won that exchange. He won every exchange. The fight was only going one way. Yes, Leon won the first round and should have just called the fight there. The fight was ever. Never seen a fighter come back from losing the first round. Not in 25 minutes. I don't think that's happening.

In a 25-minute fight, I just don't think that's happened. Now, with all that being said, with all that being said, I do think Leon Edwards retains here. I agree with you that it is the fact that he, I think he is going to be able to stuff the takedowns. And if he does get taken down, I think he's going to be able to get back to his feet in a rather quick manner. And then when it comes to the striking, I think that he has the advantages. We've seen him use the patience. I mean, against Colby Covington. It felt like he should have finished that fight, but rather just 25 minutes, gets it done.

Same thing against Usman in the third matchup last March. I just feel like this has a Leon Edwards decision victory written all over it. So do I, and that's why I have that bet. I've got Leon by decision plus 105. I don't think the wrestling is just going to come into play all that much. I mean, Leon is an exceptional defensive wrestler and very good at controlling and getting back to his feet, even if Ballal can get there. And on the feet, Leon's just a better striker.

Like, Ballal is a high volume pressure striker. Leon is very good at his footwork is very good to circle off, not allow Muhammad to kind of build the rhythm that he wants to to get his offense going. And, you know, Leon, I think he's faster. I think he has more power. He's the guy who throws the straighter strikes for his ball, uses more hooks. It all all just adds up the kicks. I think Leon's kicks are a huge weapon here.

I just think this is a tough fight for Ball. I'd love to be wrong because, again, I think it'd be quite enjoyable for Bilal Mohammed to win, though he's insane and recently told him if I think ofcom. I believe Damon Martin that he believes a win over Leon puts him right beneath George St. Pierre in the all-time Walter weights, right beneath. I mean, just like just breathing down GSP's neck. GSP, he of nine title defenses, basically just a hair in front of Balal. He was also in another interview where he did this whole breakdown of how he's going to win the fight.

And he's like, I'm going to drop him. And then I'm going to go to the ground and I'm going to put him in a choke. And then it's going to be so tight. He's about to tap. And then I'm going to let go. And I'm going to look over his corner and be like, give your boys some advice. I'm just like, I get that he's being facetious and like he's having fun. And like it is funny.

But it's just so funny to see that when he has like one finish in his last like. 12 wins or something. I really liked, I don't know, a month or two ago, the interview where he's like, he gave his, someone asked him like, in your perfect scenario, like, what's your dream outcome? And even in his like fantasy outcome for this fight, he was like, I win a 50-44 decision. Like, you can't even finish him in your dream? Let's also, let's not ignore the fact that Bilal Muhammad has 11 wins via decision in his UFC career, three by way of finish.

Of course, he did finish Sean Brady just a couple of fights ago. But before that, he did not have a finish since Takashi Sato in 2019. And Leon Edwards, 25 professional fights has been finished all of zero times. I just can't imagine that the first time is going to be against Belal Muhammad. There's just no chance. Like you, I have the over one and a half in this as a parlay. it's actually not a parlay yet because the other two legs of it the lines are not out but when they drop it I have the plan but I almost was just like I could just parley the over

two and a half because the over one and a half is like minus five 600 right now over two and a half is minus three something it's like yeah this is going to go over two and a half as well like just get that extra yeah it all depends on the book you got I got I got bet three six five I got it a minus 600 I looked on draft kings it's minus a thousand on old D.K. So, tough. Yeah,

over one and a half, I think Leon probably gets it done and retains the title. All right. Firm agreement here. We're in lockstep. And I got to imagine, Connor,

as we come to the co-main event, that we are going to have similar views on how this fight goes as well. If you know me, Curtis Blades was dominating. He was dominating. Yeah, I mean, if you know me, you know,

we're heading there. Tom Aspen, I'll take it on Curtis Blades right now. A monstrosity of a favorite. Minus 355 for Tom Aspinall. Curtis Blades coming back at plus 280. He was winning every exchange. You can get plus 280 on him.

I'd go ahead and scoop that bad boy up. That's a deal. Tom, round one. K-ho if they strike. Sub if it goes to the mat. Petrol hands, baby. Rock solid. The Asponal train keeps on rolling.

And then we get undisputed goal here. soon after. So I obviously agree that Tom Asperol is going to win this fight. My bet I found a line on Fanduel actually that you can get as a little cagey but Tom Asperol by knockout in round one

or round two. Plus 105. Plus 105. Yeah. I am on the exact same bet. I love that then. I was looking around and I was like trying to find and there were a couple of places where

and even on Fandul like I think KO in round one. one is like barely different than getting the round one and round two like they're the the line I was doing some line shopping and it was real weird I was trying to find the best one and getting plus money and I even get the little in case this goes to round two curse blades is damn good fighter so like you never want to dismiss him but I think Tom Aspinall might be a generational talent too fast hits too hard Curtis blade does not have the best chin as we know um and this is a win-win fight for me, Connor, because

let's go back to January. I put a little, put a couple of a couple of scroll down on Curtis Blades to be heavyweight champ at the end of the year, plus 2000. Plus two, Brian, let's go. If Tom Aspinall somehow loses, his knee blows out, knock on, we don't want that to happen,

happens again, I got a real chance at cashing my plus 2K Curtis Blades future bet. How do we get there, though? How do we get there? John Fights Steep A and then retires at Madison Square Guard Because John won't

Is not gonna fight Curtis Blades He's not gonna fight Tom either But he fights Stepe At Madison Square Garden And he's like guys I've had a hell of a career Retire When he retires Curtis

Interim champ Elevated up Baby They'll just elevate him Oh he would just become Undisputed champion Yeah because he's interim So when John retires

He'll be like All right well Curtis Blades Is now the undisputed Heavyweight Champion of the world That's a lot to ask That's a lot to I don't think it's going to happen again.

I think Tony Aspinall is going to do the thing here. But I have some, I've got some options if he doesn't. So I love that. I also took his money line early, minus 250. Through that in a parlay with Arnold Allen as well. Using the under three and a half as a parlay piece. Another little minus 600. That's going with the over one and a half in the main event.

I mean, he's Tom Aspernel has never gone past the nine minute mark. of a fight pro or amateur, despite one being a nine-minute decision. But, I mean, the dude is just 17 professional fights, never been past the 859 mark. All of his K-O wins come via the first round. And it's just kind of crazy looking bad. Like, he has almost not had a legitimate loss in a decade. Like, obviously, the injury last time out against Blades, decued with illegal 12 to 6 elbows in 2016, and then he did get heel-hooked in 2015.

But yeah, man, devastating power. Good Jiu-Jitsu. fast petrol hands let's go tommy a straightforward Tommy yeah let's keep it on to a very interesting fight in the featured bout of the evening Bobby Green taking on Patty Pimblet right now

I'm sorry call this man his correct name King yes King Green taking on Patty Pimblit Patty Pimblit very bothered by the name change for one King Green right now you can get old KG at minus 125 Patty Pimbled coming back at Plus 105. Orange shorts for Patty Pimlet.

I don't know if that goes into our handicapping of this fight. But what say you in this one? I saw the orange shorts like just before we hopped on to do this. And so that didn't give me enough time to go back and be like, all right, custom shorts. How are custom shorts doing? It's obviously Gachy got custom shorts, but so did Max Holloway. So it's like that's kind of a watch. He had custom shorts and lost.

Yeah. Yeah, Bore had the custom shorts. and loss. Like, it's, it's hard to know exactly what the custom shorts are doing. Plus, like, all right, I'll just lead with, I'm on King Green. I'm on King Green here. I don't, this is not like a massively confident. I see some people out there who've been waiting to fade Patty because Patty's a fraud.

This is not that. I do think King Green's going to win. I kind of wish I didn't think this way because there are like eight awesome parlayes you could do with Patty involved. Do the Cage Warrior Champion Parlay, get him and Molly McCann teamed up. Like, do a lot of cool stuff with him. But ultimately, this comes down to Bobby Green is getting older, but the way his being older is manifesting is his chin is dropping off.

He's getting knocked out. That's not Patty. It's not really what Patty is about. And Bobby Green is just a much better striker. Like, he is a substantially better striker. He is a good wrestler, a good defensive wrestler, and a really underrated jujitsu player, particularly defensively.

So this just feels like this is a pretty tough fight for Patty Pimble. Not impossible, but I think he's just kind of going to get beat everywhere and lose the striking exchanges consistently. And so I think it probably goes to decision. Patty's fairly tough,

but I just took King Green at minus 115 odds. I'm in agreeance with you. I took King Green at a minus 110. This is a captivating show. You and I just lockstep every step of the, way. I am with you, though. I mean, I think this is Patty Pimlet's toughest test to date. I am not one of those people who's been waiting to fade Patty Pimlet. I feel like a lot of people that also are saying that have

probably tried to fade him before and it and it didn't work out for them. But this is a tough test, man. I mean, you said it. I like the defensive wrestling of Bobby Green if Patty Pimlet tries to take it there. And if it's striking, dude, Patty Pimlet has a 41% striking defense. He gets hit a decent amount going up against the guy who has insane volume in King Green. Just a couple of stats historically for King Green. He has landed the most strikes in lightweight history. He has the fifth best strikes per minute in lightweight history, and he has the second best striking differential in lightweight history. I imagine if this is mostly a striking affair, Patty Pimlet is going to get thoroughly out-volumed, and Bobby Green gets it done.

I mean, yeah, pretty much exactly. Like, I doubt King gets it gets the finish. But Patty doesn't have the craft either. It's not even just the volume. It's King is tricky in there. I don't think Patty can do it. So, again, it'd be kind of cooler if we were wrong here, just because that crowd is going to pop so big for Patty,

which is going to be just a monumental thing. Oh, and the orange shorts, too, it's going to be sick. Yeah, throw back to the cage where, like, just an unbelievable effort. but I think the crowd's going to be sad by old King Green. That'll also be kind of cool if they're booing, you know, Bobby Green's going to get on, or King Green's going to get on that mic and say some shit. So he might just get boot out the building, which could be fun to watch as well. That's fair.

And, you know, he's the man, the man's great with the mic in his hand. Frankly, the thing I'm looking forward to the most with this fight is the press conference because, you know, you put King Green in a room just with a mic, an unfettered, free will the talk and Patty on the opposite side. I was going to say Patty too. Yeah, it's going to be great. Some things are going to happen. Big fan of this fight.

Let's keep it rolling. CLD, Christian Leroy, Duncan, taking on Gregory Hodge. Right now, CODD, your favorite minus 142. Rodriguez coming back at plus 120. This has potential to be a banger. I think this one is going to be sick. Gregory Houdriguez very tough. I mean, we've seen it in the past.

I mean, there's just like the cut that opened up over his eyes a couple of fights ago. those as deep as the Grand Canyon. But he does get hit a lot. He does get hit a lot in there. He's a very physical dude. Maybe he takes us to the ground. Maybe he gets a judo throw in on old CLD and he has some success there. But if this thing is striking, then I favor Christian Leroy Duncan, either to catch the chin of Rodriguez over the course of the 15 minutes or to win a a decision. I just don't really know if Rodriguez is going to try

to take it to the ground. So at this point, I do not have a bet on this fight. I'm on Christian Rodriguez. Robocop, baby. I mean, one, just unbelievable fun. You hit us with Christian Rodriguez,

a little mixture of both there. Oh, wow. I was like, what do you talk? Oh, it took me a minute. Yeah, I'm on Gregory Rodriguez. Robocop, baby. Shout out to Christian Rodriguez, though. Shout out.

C.rod, baby. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Robocop just always a dude who's unbelievably fun to watch get busy. And for as much as there is a bit of an idea and not without merit, the Robocop sometimes doesn't fight the smartest fights. He'll get in there and brawl when he doesn't need to. He also has been pretty consistent in using his jujitsu, you know, being a world-class grappler.

And so, like, if this is strictly a striking match, certainly CLD is favored. but I think RoboCop can compete on the feet just with his sort of manic brawling style and on the ground I think he obviously has a pretty clear advantage. So I'm getting him at underdog odds. I am on Gregory Rodriguez. Let's go. Let's go.

Let's keep it rolling on to the final fight on the main card. Arnold Allen taking on Gigga Chikaze. Right now, Arnold Allen is your favorite minus 250. Giga coming back at plus 205. I got to go against the Georgia boy here, unfortunately, but I mean, it's almighty. It was always almighty. This is my guy right here. Gig is 35.

Arnold Allen and his prime needs a bounce back after a disappointing loss, gets it done in front of the home crowd. Arnold. Fully agree. I think I still just haven't given up on Arnold Island. I know there's a little bit of people moving away with back-to-back losses. But again, this is a guy who. It was very competitive with Max Holloway, and then in a five-round fight with Mopsarov.

Might be talking about a win there. You know, he got a little. If the knee rules different? The knee rules different? Or yeah, like, there's some things that could have happened there. I still think he has the juice, the goods. Gigi Chi Kadezai had a moment, but that moment feels like a decade ago.

He's just been so inconsistent of getting, even getting into the cage that there's no momentum to him. I think Alan's smart enough to navigate the kicks, which is a big issue, score takedowns as he needs them, and just be impressive. So I have Arn and Allen in a parley. Parlay is not in because I want to discuss a future bet with you. I've got two legs. I may add a third, depending on how we feel when we talk through it.

And I'm also going to use the over one and a half here for a over one and a half passers parley with Leon Ballal and one more to come. but that line is not dropped yet. I'm very curious to see it. Yeah, I mean, the giga cater fight feels like an eternity, an eternity. Like a lifetime ago. That was January 2020. That was a week before we watched Francis and Gonov versus Cyril Gaon.

Like that was forever ago, and he's had one fight since, only been getting older. I mean, it's all that. The Edson Barbosa fight, which was the like, hey, here is the real man. That was like three years ago. It's a lifetime ago. He's fighting once a year. You can't build momentum that way. Let's roll to the prelims Nathaniel Wood taking on Daniel Paneda.

Right now, Nathaniel Wood is your favorite at minus 425. Daniel Paneda plus 330. I want to throw something out here to you. Make this one a little bit more interesting. Minus 425. I'm in my catcher stance. Let's go. I'm ready to catch.

All right. I love it. Nathaniel Wood via decision. Sitting there at plus two. I know what you're going to say. Daniel Paneda. He's had like, what, some like 43 professional fights and like 37 of them having gone to a decision. I'm just going to throw this out. Nathaniel Wood, no finishes since 2019, has not had a knockout since his Cage Warriors career, which actually happened back in 2018. Panetta has been subbed, yes, which is how Nathaniel Wood

has gotten any of his finishes in the UFC, but he has not been sub since 2010 at Bellator 19. If a fight does go to a decision, Daniel Panetta is 0 and 6 in those in his career. I'm just saying Nathaniel Wood has put together quite a few decision victories in a row. Daniel Paneda, usually if he gets finished, it's by knockout, and Nathaniel Wood has not knocked that anyone out in six years. You're getting plus 200 on it. You're changing on minus 425 to a plus 200. I haven't bet it yet, but I am strongly considering it.

I don't hate that. That's certainly an interesting thought. I am, my breakdown here is pretty simple. I do think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this, but the esteemed Mike Heck, who will be joining us for the watch party this weekend. I have it on good authority from Mr. Mike Heck that Panetta is a live dog,

that he does not agree with the price to this. And while I don't necessarily agree that Panetta is going to win, I don't love the number on wood. The number is far too high because Panetta is scrappy and wood, you know, he's obviously doing fine at featherweight. I'm not still kind of feel like maybe he just needs to find a better way to get to

one three five. There is another reason. He's up a weight class. I think I'm doing it. I think I'm going to bet him by decision plus 200. If you're going to bet this, I like finding a prop like that, something that's good. I can't put wood in any parlayes, though I did briefly consider a

Cage Warriors champion parlay. There are seven former Cage Warrior champions on this card, by the way. Seven of them. Two of them, two of them competing against each other. And so you can do a five or six leg parlay, get it up to four figures in the positives. But unless I just take like a flyer on that,

I'll have no action on this fight. All right. And that's that. That is Nathaniel, Daniel Panan. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, Molly McCann, taking on Bruna, Brazil. And right now you can get Molly McCann for the short odds

minus 360, Bruno Brazil coming back at plus 285. Molly McCann. Minus 360. She's minus 265 against Belbeda. Minus 215 against Stolia Ranko. She was plus 310 against Blanchefield, but she got eviscerated in the first round.

She was minus 410 against Hannah Goldie. She has been a favorite in 10 of her 12 U.S.C. fights. She has seven and five in those. So what could go wrong? What could go wrong? Nothing. Nothing can go wrong. And because I believe that I've parlayed her with,

or I will be parlaying her with on her. Island and again an open leg out here. I just think this is a really good set-up fight for. Brunner-Brazil is not good. And Mullen McCann is not great, but Mali-McCann is better, in my opinion, than Brunner-Brasil, and the style match-up should be good. Brazil is very low-volume. She's not a great defensive wrestler.

And so kind of McCann just putting a lot of pace on her, take it, shoot, and takedowns as she needed, as long as she doesn't get guillotined. I think that this is. This is the ideal set-up fight to get the arena rocking, get people pumped, for Molly McCann as we build towards the Patty Pimblit thing and, you know, the vibes that everyone wants when we go to England. They do enjoy a good Molly McCann set up fight and that might be what we're getting here. Let's keep it rolling.

Colin Lockerain taking on Jake Hadley right now, Lockerang, your favorite minus 198 Hadley plus 164. I actually considered Hadley as a dog here, but seven days notice going on. up a weight class. Just got me staying away from it. Not playing LaGranen at minus 200, though. That's terrific because this was the open leg where I'm debating, adding it to as the third leg of the parlay.

This is also Cage Warrior Champion versus Champion. Hadley, the Flyweight. Hadley former Flyweight, Lockering, former Bannonweight. So Champ versus Champ fight, I don't know if they're going to have the Cage Warrior's belts out there with them, do it, but they should. it'd be dope. I do like Lacken to win this fight. Just bigger dude, not coming in on seven days notice.

I sort of like what I've seen from him thus far. But I was just like, I don't really know if I want to lay this price. Because I feel pretty solid about the other two legs. This would certainly be a little inviting a little more risk, but getting the number much better. But, you know, we've discussed it. I've gotten your opinion. I support your opinion.

And so we will not be doing that. We'll just be parlaying on an aisle, Molly McCann. And as you intro the next fight, I'll go ahead and input that bet and figure out and tackle what that's paying me on at. This is Bukakis taking on Marcine prokneo. Right now you can get a big old prachneo for plus 130 Bukascus is coming back at minus 1.55. Yeah, I really just have written down your thoughts on this one. I really just don't have a take here. I feel like this is just destined to be a fairly boring, light, heavyweight decision.

Any way you flip it and we'll, we just move on to the next fight. My take is actually almost exactly that of. They're just going to come. There's not going to be any grappling. This is just going to be kickboxing. Neither dude is a big finisher, but they both can get finished and finish. You know, kind of my head, I guess I pick Prokneo, but I don't, I don't even feel confident in that. And I'm certainly not betting it.

And I may end up throwing a bet on Bukakarcus just because, as part of the Cage Warrior champion, potential parlay, because he is a former Cage Warrior champion as well. So, yeah, this is just, this is card filler. This is getting us from point A to point B. And, you know, take a smoke break. If that's something you do, you won't miss too much. much smoke them if you got them let's keep it rolling oban elliott taking on preston parsons right now you can get oban elli for plus 120 preston parsons minus 142 uh i really like this guy oban elliott just the way he acts outside the octagon he's sort of like a fan of the sport while partaking

in the sport i like his attitude um welsh gangster love how he's like a chel son and die hard Is this my most confident pick? No, but I am betting him. I'm going to trust that he's going to make a leap after the Valde Woodburn fight, where he did get rocked early on, but then had a fair amount of success. I still like his striking. I think he's pretty slick on the ground.

I could see Preston taking it there. He's close to home. Second UFC fight. Welsh gangster. A heart bet, but I'm betting on him to get it done. Connor, do you hear that? What's that? Oh, baby.

I'm on open all that as well. Sell me hard because, like, this is just me cheering for the kid. This is, I mean, this is a little bit of an internal style job. Not so much as I'm cheering for him, but I do think we, he has shown improvement. And I'm still, I don't really know what to make of Preston Parsons. I know that Preston Parsons is not a bad fighter. But it still feels a little. limited. I think this fight will come down primarily to grappling because Parsons is certainly

going to force that issue. But Elliot is a good grappler, good wrestler in his own right. And I think he's the better striker. Particularly, and you know, don't want to draw too much on this, but go go watch some of the work they've been putting in in their training camps. You can see that they post footage up on Instagram and stuff. It's just like one of these two dudes is very clearly the better striker to me. And if the grappling can just be even, then advantage Elliot. If the grappling isn't, I won't be stunned if this ends up losing Parsons, you know, shoots a billion take downs or something insane like that. But Scrappy, I think this is a fight that the UFC, you know, when in doubt, betting on the guy the UFC probably is trying to get over is usually a good strategy. And so this is a

fight that certainly open Elliott can win and getting the underdog odds. If he was not an underdog, I would not be betting this, but at the price, yeah, let's take a shot. Let's have some fun. Let's take a shot, baby. Welsh Gangsta, let's go. Muhammad Mahiav, taking on Manel Cop right now. Mohi, your favorite at minus 148, Manel Cop plus 124. Time for some conspiracies, man. Let's just get them all out there because I'm curious as to what's going on with this fight was originally on the main card, then slated for the prelims. Now we're all the way down to the early prelims. Manel cop has had seven fight cancellations since April of 2022. he's at nine since joining the UFC. What's going on here?

What's going on? I mean, this is a title of Eliminator. I mean, like, if Muhammad Mahev had won that Alex Perez fight in a more dominant fashion or maybe via finish, he probably would have been the one fighting Alejandro Pantogh, instead of Steve Bersig. What's going on here, man? I don't know. I, as truth is, I don't know either. It's because also, like, I have to assume, to me, this is, and again,

Very conspiracy theory. We've got the 10 full hat on. That's what I want. That's what I want. Get it out there. I feel exactly the same way I did when they, Connor and the UFC canceled the pre-fight press conference with Chandler and Dublin. When they were like, conference is canceled, fights still, you know, we're going to be silent. The fight's not all.

I was like, oh, the fight's done. As soon as it comes like, fights over, we're out of here. As soon as we're starting to get this Tom Foolery, this is done. Like this fight's not going to happen because Minnell Cop, such a history of this. And because, like, there is literally no reason that this fight would be on the prelims. Unless you already know that it's out. And there's maybe a 10% chance that the fight can get saved and salvaged.

And so you don't want to have all your media stuff with this on and then at the 11th hour, I have to change it and be like, ah, so you just buried in the early prelims. And then if it still happens, great, it happens. You win this one. Because this is a title of me. Like this is two top 10 guys. Like there's, there's no way this would be behind Sam Patterson, Kiefer Crosby or whatever the hell. Let me, uh, let me take that even further.

I'm going to guess that, uh, this is all conspiracy, by the way. I have no inside info. This is me just, just throwing a dart here. I'm going to guess that it's on. Connecting dots. I'm going to guess that it's on the Manel Cops side due to his history of, of fight cancellations throughout his UFC career. It's like 25% chance of it happening.

So they're thinking like, oh, Minel Cop, like, even if he does, does make it, he's going to be depleted, which means Muhammad Mahayev is probably going to win. And if Muhammad Mahamahev wins, it'll probably just be like a 15-minute grappling affair with like 13 and a half minutes of control time and almost zero damage. So they're like, we'll just put it on the early prelims. If it gets canceled, it gets canceled. If it happens, it'll just be, you know, a grappling decision win by Muhammad Mahi. That's my conspiracy theory for the day.

Could absolutely be. The truth is I hope we're wrong. You know, I want this fight to happen. I have been extremely high in Mohamedaev since he made his debut. And that was the last time he was fun was when he submitted a man in 60 seconds since his UFC debut. That was sick. And it was awesome. And I still, like, I still think he is an exceptional talent and has a very good chance to be the first UFC champion born in the 2000s.

But, you know, he's got to get the opportunity. And if this fight falls through, brutal. then I doubt Pantosha just fights him because, like, then I don't know what's happening. This is a true number one contender fight, so I want it to happen. Under the assumption that it does happen, I am betting Mahama Mahayev, and I'm betting him by decision at plus 170. I felt a little weird about that just because it's not that better of a price than betting him straight at like minus 135 or whatever, but he's just so likely.

It just seems overwhelming and likely that if Mikhailov wins, it's by decision. So I decided I wanted the extra value. Probably a dumb bet. Probably just smarter to bet him straight since you're not getting that much extra. But mainly I just hope this fight happens, you know? I would like this man to fight. And if not, I hope, like, if it really is, you know, on the ropes, its entire streets, I hope Mick Maynard's working the phones and is like, hey, you know, what kind of top 10 guy?

You know what I hope? I hope they put a call out to Brandon Royval. And we're like, hey man, like, cops already being weird. Can you, can you just come and get on a plane and start trying to get your weight down? And we'll let you know if we need you. Jump in, title eliminator. You will then get another shot at Pintosha despite no one really needing to see that fight so soon. Not a soul needing to see that.

No one needs to see it. But here, we'll give you one if we have to use you here. Because that, that would be cool. But yeah, I just want the fight to happen. Yeah, I hope it happens as well. I think if it does happen and Mahive can't get it to the ground. I think it's going to get real, real interesting. Oh, it's real trouble if he can't get it.

Yeah, real interesting. But I feel like he's just going to just change. He's just going to take dance. Yeah, I mean, it's just pretty much what he does. So, yeah, we'll see what happens with that one. I have no bet on it. Even if it were to happen, I still wouldn't have a bet on it. I'm just going to sit back, watch and see what happens.

Let's keep it rolling. Sam Patterson. Oh, please. I'd say another fight where I do have some action. on the other side of it for for my uh you know futures bet i have a manel cop future bet down and that i that bet felt like it would be good when i thought okay minel cop is going to get a title shot and then he keeps not fighting to get title eliminator fights and it's uh but but let's say he makes it if he makes it he gets it done yeah fly it's a weird spot like i feel like we

haven't seen a mir al-bazi kai kaira and manel cop in in ages. It's, it's very, particularly because Pantosia is being, like, pretty active, and the guys who you would think he'd be being active against are just kind of not around. Yeah, what does I have two title defenses now? Yeah, like, he's, he's getting busy out in there, man. I feel like he's two title defenses since any of those guys I just named have fought. Yeah.

And, uh, but Manel Kopp plus 800. If he could freaking make it and he can beat him high of by the end of the year, maybe as the co-main event on the MSG card, you get Pantosia cop two. for the belt and I get a chance to cash two futures with Curtis Blades and Manel Cop. That'd be big times. You want to know something just even crazier? Since the last time, Kikara, France, and Amir Al-Bazi, and when was the last time Manel Cop fought? I have no idea.

Okay, yeah, he fought at 293. I do remember that. But since the last time, Amir al-Bazi and Kikara-France fought, Steve Versig made his UFC debut, won several fights and fought for a U.S. title. And Pantosia has won the belt and had two title defenses. That's awesome. But hey, Kikara-France is fighting next month.

Yeah, Steve Versa, great fight. Steve Versa. Can't wait for that one. Vinnie Siggs. Sam Patterson's taking on Kiefer Crosby, Sam Patterson, a big, big favorite minus 375, Kiefer Crosby, plus $2.95. I don't really have a side on this one.

Ever since that Ashmoos fight, I was questionable of Sam Patterson coming in. I just can't trust them yet at like a big price at this. But I do have fight does not go to a decision as a parlay piece. Crosby, he's just a brawler. And I think that's what he does. He comes in here and chucks him. He either catches the chin or Sam Patterson takes us to the ground,

and I think it'll be over shortly after that. I mean, we saw it. He's slick. Last time out, first round submission. and Crosby last two losses, he has been subbed and didn't put up too much of a defense to that. So I think this is Patterson getting chin or Patterson choking Crosby out. But I don't think we see the scorecards here. Yeah, I briefly considered a Crosby flyer because hard to trust Patterson.

I liked him coming in, but just he's just he's not a great athlete. And that is a huge downside. is, you know, big dude chins up in the air a lot. You know, Kiefer's brawler maybe catches it, but I just passed. I already have plenty of action. I don't need to be firing shots at this one. But I do actually like, I really like the under as a parley piece. I think that's a well-argued case.

I'm using that, the under in the co-main and the over one and a half in the main event. And that is, that's my big, my big, shocky parlay for the weekend. For the shock suit. Love it. Let's keep it rolling. Mick Parking, taking on Luke. Breschke right now. Parkin, Big Mick, minus 278, Breschke coming back at plus 2.25. Mick Parkin and Tom Aspenall trained together, but they are just like polar opposites.

Like you've got very similar. Sort of just a slow plotting decision machine that's looking to mix and some takedowns. Well, Tom Aspenall literally has no idea what a scorecard is. He does not know what that word means. But I just want to... He gets screwed by the judges if you never see him. Exactly. That's bingo.

I just want to throw it out here. I don't know why. I just field him a plums, feel down there in the gut. Can our guy Mick Parkin get a finish this weekend? I was briefly considering this. I'm thinking about firing it, man. It's plus 170. Presky gas is hard.

Parkin likes to get takedowns. He's got submissions before. gonna do it in front of the Manchester crowd man, Wiggins stand up. I'm talking myself into it. I feel like everyone is just like, oh, there's going to be a slow, nasty decision. Sometimes you got a zig when the others are zagging, baby. So I had the exact same thought, and I ultimately was like, I just can't. I can't do it.

This man, I've watched this man go to three awful decisions. I gotta need it early in the card, baby. I need something to throw my damn phone against the wall when I go all 15 minutes in another Mick Parkin decision warfare. Look, I can't do it. Heavyweight overs live deep inside me, and this man is a consummate heavyweight over professional, but wouldn't shock me if this was finally the time.

I also briefly just considered doing a Parkin-Aspinall parlay, just straightforward, simple, some training partner action in there. But I just don't want my money tied to Mick Parkin because it's not going to be a good time. Whatever is happening in there, I don't think. So I'm just out on this fight. Right. He's like, it's so cool that he trains with Aspinall and he's undefeated, the Englishman

rep, yeah, he just doesn't fight that cool, you know? Correct. It just doesn't really, yeah, just doesn't really fight that cool. All right, last fight on the card. Let's knock it out. Shana Bannon, taken on Alice Ardeline. And right now, Bannon, your favorite and mine, minus 185. Arteline coming back plus 155.

So if you don't know Alice Ardalen, go ahead and hop on TikTok. Three million followers for the girl. I went down a pretty deep rabbit hole. I mean, she's got some TikToks with like 90 million views on it. Why? Can someone explain to me why she's popular on TikTok? One of the youths, tell me. I don't want to say provocative content, but a lot of the jokes she make are sexually based.

You know, I mean, she's a decent looking girl posts a lot Some of her TikToks are pretty funny So I mean, she's killing it on social media Not the greatest fighter in the world She's terrible fighter She's absolutely terrible fighter She did fight Wei Lee back in 2016

She's got the experience She got absolutely mauled But she has a So we're clear that at the time Wayley had five fights Wayley entered the U.S.C. with like 18 fights. She has put together, if you count the exhibition matches, she's putting together like five to seven wins in a row.

Yeah, I'm just staying away from this one, man. Do you know, do you know of the top of your head the combined record of those people she's beaten? I don't even know off the top of my head. I couldn't name you one opponent of hers other than Diana Bopeena and Wiley. Well, I mean, yeah, you should never know any of them. The combined record of people, or combined record of people she has beaten is nine and 15.

Shut up. And she has never beaten anyone with more than three wins. She's not good. We all know what has happened, why she's here. UFC drafting off of the popularity, you know, great. I suspect this woman will be an influencer boxing in the near future. You know, I mean, what's... Her signature thing.

is to like play like a very like sexually oriented video and then it flashes to her and she like looks at the camera weird. Like I'm watching one now with like two fried eggs and a sausage and like the person's being just, just real real sexual innuendos there. And then it flashes to her and she stares at the camera

and then she looks away and then she makes this like I guess this is her signature face. 15,000 likes though. 15,000 likes. She's crushing it. 312,000 views on that one. Yeah, I mean, the one, she has one with 97 million views. And it's of this machine that washes a glass.

Again, sexually provocative, flashes to her. She makes this signature face, a couple eyebrow raises, 90 million views, 6.1 million likes. takes 90,000 comments. If you are good, good for her. I'm saying she's killing it on social. I can't even, hey, bro. It feels like she should be, you know, boxing page Van Zant and not, not opening UFC

pay-per-view card, but maybe that will be in her future and the near future. I would pick Shauna or Sean Abandon, but why would I bet this? Also, Sean is your name, not the Canon? It's so dumb. Be Sean of the Cannon Bannon. Like this is so good. But yeah, we're just not. Alice Mwendolyn is not going to be getting money from me.

So we're done with this one as far as I'm concerned. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, shout out to Alice. Artoline. Shout out. Shut out. You see 304. That's it.

Are you just going on a TikTok Ormore? I'm just like, I have figured it out that like the formula for her is either like an outfit of the day where she just shows what she's wearing or like something that's like referencing sex

and then she makes a weird face. Okay. That's how you break through. You just keep posting until you get there. Yeah, honestly. I mean, she, uh, yeah,

I mean, she posted a decent amount, but, like, if she, wins, she's going to make the face. You know that right. She wins. When she's announced, you know, whoever the referee is raises her hand, the camera gets the zoom, and she'll hit him with the face. And if she doesn't,

then she should be thrown out of the UFC immediately. I'm looking forward to that. I pray she gets the win so we can see that because... She might just hit the face during the announcement. Yeah. Yeah. Buffer gives her the... Yeah. Yeah, because like 98% of people are going to be like, what the fuck is that? And then like the, all the people that follow are going to be like, oh, there it is. There it is. Yeah. It's classic A.K.

If you know, you know. Yes. If you know. A.K. Y, K. Yeah, if you know you know. Why are you going AY for if? I mean, I. I.

K.Y. K. There it is. There we go. No. Yeah. No. And that's your C304. back next week, UFC Abu Dhabi.

Is that what's next week? I didn't even look at what's next week. Yeah, yeah, great fight. Oh, next week's a bang. Ors Anagan, Umar, Narmaga, Medov. It's just a good card. Except for the Tony Ferguson Kesa thing. I'm looking forward to that.

And boxing, Terence Crawford, picking on Israel. Madre Mav. A great card over there, so we'll have plenty to talk about. Until then, though, see you at the watch party on Saturday, bro. See you Saturday. I love you.