MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Mackenzie Dern Get Revenge On Amanda Ribas At UFC Vegas 101?

Episode Date: January 8, 2025

The first fight card of 2025 is upon us! That's right, the new year finally kicks off with its first fight card and while it's not the biggest name card of all time, UFC Vegas 101 still features some pretty decent matchups, capped off by a strawweight rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas. So let's get 2025 off to a good start with the latest edition of No Bets Barred! This week, Host Jed Meshew is joined by MMA Fighting's Alexander K. Lee to dive into all the fights at UFC Vegas 101. Topics of discussion include Dern's chances to pull off the upset and get her revenge on Ribas, why Chris Curtis is being so disrespected by oddsmakers, which prospects on the card have the most upside, and the latest leg in Jed's great white whale: The Climb! Tune in for episode 113 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Mike Heck: @MikeHeck_JR Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back. We're back in the swing of things, baby. 2025 is here. And this weekend for the first time in nearly a month, the UFC is returning to action. More importantly, they are returning to action

and returning to the world's most famous apex for UFC, Vegas 101. It is a new year. It is a new era. And the march to Vegas 200, begins now. And so, for the first official UFC event of the evening,

of not of the evening of the year, obviously we did a futures pod last week with the great Mike Heck. I brought his very bestest friend to join me this week for Vegas 100 because you guys may not know this. Alexander Kaley, he's opposed to gambling on a moral level.

But he does gamble at the start of the year until he no longer has money to gamble with. So we wanted to make sure we got him in while we're hot, you know, while the ducats are still there to be used. So, A.K., thanks for joining me this week, buddy. Yes, I am technically eligible to put my money where my mouth is, as they say. Because, yes, my bank roll resets. I didn't make it past March last year, which was both, you know, unfortunate, but also a good thing. It means, like, for the rest of the next nine months of 2024, didn't really think about actually gambling at all, didn't have to.

I set my limit. Stress-free. Stress-free. I set my limit, I'd stayed within it. But I will say, every time I saw a heavyweight fight, go past that two minute and 30 mark of the second round, oh, man, I felt like I was missing out. Like, that's when it hurt. That's when I was like, God, I just wish I. That's, you could feel alive for that whole fight.

Boy, I could have made some money last year. None of those this week, though. No. You won't have to feel that way this week, no heavyweight bouts, aka we do have 14 bouts to dip our toe back. into the UFC waters. The Amuse Bouch, the appetizer, ahead of UFC 311 next weekend. And this weekend's event is main-evented by a fight.

We have already seen the rematch between McKinsey Dern and Amanda Hebas taking place 115 pounds, five rounds apiece. Co-main event Santiago Ponsenibio taking on Carlston Harris. And no disrespect to either man, but when that's your co-main event, buddy, we are back in the eight. apex.

So, 14 fights. This card, I've taken some pretty hefty notes here. This card has a lot of old-ass MFers on it. I don't know if you notice that. And just respectfully, I consider old-ass in M-MA, and I guess in sports in general, like 35-and-up. And there are several 35-and-up people here, people close to closer to 40, I should say.

Like 35-and-up is actually generous. They're probably closer to 40. And there's old, but there's also a handful of like contender series people. So we got some old blood, we got some new blood. That's kind of a fun mix. Like if you're going to do a 14 fight card, that's not a bad way to sort of, you know, have names on there, you know. A lot of contender series people this week.

Yes. And look, I'm fine with this because this is, it's our first fight back. You don't want to have, you don't want all your good stuff out there. We got to get, we've got to ease back into this for 311. So these are just throw a few things at the wall. Let's see what happens. Let's remember how to be fight fans for the week. And then next week for 311, which has two monstrously important fights and is a decent card outside of the two monstrously important fights.

We can be jacked up for that. So easy enough for us. And this shouldn't be that long an episode, aka I hope that with your reset bankroll, you're not going heavy this week because I have more bets. than I should. I did that thing where I haven't bet on the UFC other than the futures bets, which is not the same. I haven't bet on the UFC in like a month

and I was feeling a little itchy. Definitely took a little more action than I needed, but we'll see if that is a bad or a good choice. Because my bankroll resets. I finished very slightly up from No Bet's Barred last year. All right. Very slightly. It was not great.

And made a very, very minimal profit on my futures bets hope to do the same, but A.K., let's dive right into the rematch we've all been clamoring for. We have been asking for this one for months and months. It was supposed to happen at UFC Tampa, which would have been a full-blown rematch as their first fight happened in Tampa five years prior. Instead, it got bumped to be the main event of this. McKinsey Dern, taking on a man to He-Bos. Dern, your underdog, round plus 175, depending on the book.

He boss, the betting favorite, minus 200. He boss, of course, won their first contest, a unanimous decision, 30-27s across the board. And a very, frankly, not particularly competitive fight. And so, A.K., I'll tease and say I have two pieces of action down on this fight. Well, I have one and one, which will be, because not all the props are out yet. I can't get all the action I want down. But I have two bets that will be taking place here. But, AK, what do you think about this rematch?

And why is it happening? Do we care? What's going to happen? I like the rematch. It's a matchup that has come up occasionally on to the next one. I don't know if Mike or I have ever picked it. But usually when Dern fights or Heba's fights, win or lose. Because neither of them have, like, been able to quite advance past that top seven,

top eight spot at straw weight. He was competes in both divisions, and she's been, you know, top 15 at flyweight. You could say top 10 at straw weight. Done a little better at straw weight has some good wings of flyweight, but I don't know. I'm glad she's back here. I hope she stays 115, but I know she loves to fight. So I don't think the matchup is that bad. I think it's actually a really good test because, okay, I won't get into, oh, is this,

is this the fight where McKenzie Dern shows us that she'll finally be a chance? I think we said, like, four McKenzie Dern fights ago that that's, like, out the window. We're just like, you know, if she ever fights for a tell us someday, good. I said that. You said that. I think you've said that multiple times. I haven't listened to my own advice, but I've certainly said it a lot. Like you said, you said, this is the last time that I look at McKenzie Duren as a future

title contender. But, you know, it's hard not to. It's not like the division is super deep. She has the A plus skill. We always say when a fighter has an A plus skill, as long as they can be like a solid like C plus everywhere else, there's a route to fight for a title. It's just you could argue that, like, she hasn't been to C plus in other areas. And her A plus skill, she doesn't use it to the best of its ability, I think, to put it kindly.

So I'm not surprised she's the underdog. I'm glad to see them fight again. I think she's a fun underdog bet, too. I'm trying to see. What's the best I, okay, I see on BetMGM and Bet Any Sports plus 175. It's not great. It's not going to move to two to one. I would be very surprised if we moved to two to one by the end of the week.

If somehow it did, I mean, you jump all over that. You jump all over that. But that seems doubtful. But I don't think she's a bad underdog pick, I will say. I'm trying to look at some of these other props here. I'm pretty confident this goes through decision again. But if you're picking... It seems incredibly likely.

It does. Peaboss has only ever been knocked out, never been submitted, Dern. not really going to knock anybody out. But this is why, but submission. Submission, Jedd, this is why we gamble. This is why we gamble. So I'll just, I'm not saying, to picking these, I'm just going to run off some of these wins by the submission bets on bet online.

Plus 400 straight up, win by submission. McKenzie Dern. And then there's round one, round two, and round three. Round one plus 700, round two plus 900, round three plus 1,200, and so on and so forth. You guys get the idea. I'm just saying if you're feeling if you're feeling froggy

and you think McKenzie Duren can finish you know take one of these round bets I would say if I was just throwing a dart round three that's where I would settle in plus 1,200 I'm not saying you should do that it's plus 1,200 for a reason

but if you're doing if you want to do more than just take Darnes an underdog then you know then go that way throw a couple of bucks on there but I don't think Dern as an underdog is like a terrible bet I'm glad you don't

because I am betting Dern as an underdog solid. Iver down at plus 175. This is obviously an idiotic bet. I can't get off the McKinsey Dern train. No. She may well lose this fight, but I just don't think Amanda Heba should be that big of favor. I know Amanda Heba has wiped the floor with her the first time.

Dern is better since then. And I just, this can happen. And so I'm going to be on brand and me and McKinsey Dern have never have never synced up. with my bets and her performances, but hopefully this is one of the few times and we'll cash that out. And also AK, AK, I wanted you on here. I was so happy to hear onto the next one this year, as you bought, you believe in the climb. Okay. That the climb is going to succeed this year.

And I think it is we're a six legs down on the climb right now, which is terrific. We're very happy about being six legs. legs down on the climb. Leg seven. And for those who aren't aware, the climb is my attempt to get 30 consecutive bets in a row to turn 30 consecutive bets minus 500 are there about odds. If you parlay those up, basically just roll the winners over. You get 30 of them. You can turn 100 bucks into 20 grand.

It is my mission to accomplish that in the year 2025. six legs down, 24 to go is a lot of legs to go. But when the line drops, depending on what the line is, because we do have to kind of get it close to that minus 500, I think the over is hitting here. The current over is minus four and a half. It's about minus 200 or so for that. So we're going to be taking alternate over under two and a half, three and a half, depending on which one we're getting closer to that minus 500. I'd like it to be minus, I'd like to be the over two and a half here optimally and be something like minus five minus 600. Like I said, Hebus doesn't get knocked out or only gets knocked out.

Dern. Dern doesn't really pack a ton of chaos power on the feet. And the big criticism I have is she doesn't hurt people on the ground. She just tries to submit them. So hopefully the climb continues leg seven down. We continue our march up to greener. pastures and McKenzie Dern cash an underdog bet for me. Sorry, Jed.

So that was just goes over. It will depend on what the odds are for it. I will be taking the over, but right, because as it's, I just haven't put it in yet because I don't have alternate overs. The over currently is four and a half and it's minus 200 depending on the book. So I suspect the over two and a half is probably like minus 600. the over, if somehow the over one and a half is minus 500, sure. But I will take whatever the lowest number of rounds I can get the over on that's closest to that minus 500 range.

If it's three and a half, we'll take it. I wouldn't love it, but I think we, I think it'll probably be closer to two and a half to be that minus five, minus 600. Okay, I'm feeling that. I thought, I'll say later. I'll say later what I thought your client bet might be. But we'll, like exactly. We don't have the full, like, prop odds, a full list of prop odds in frontos right now. I had an inkling.

It was going to be something else, but okay. We are recording a little earlier. Not a lot of props have not dropped. As a result, I am almost entirely on straight action, but for one prop and the climb bet that will will be made. But moving on, AK, we head to the co-mate event of the evening. Sanctial. Penultimate bout. Fair.

You know what? Fair. Fair. Respectfully to these two. It's not a co-main. It is. It is the penultimate belt because honestly, Dern Hebas is really the co-main. There's just not a main event.

But Ponsonibio taking on Carlston Harris in a welterweight contest. Pretty close odds here. Ponsonibio around minus 115, Carlston Harris, either minus odds or you can find him at plus 100 in a couple of spots. So bookies seem to believe this is a very close contest. and A.K. I kind of disagree, but I also don't have any level of confidence here. I mean, Ponzanibio is one in four in his past five fights. Lost a split decision of Musum Salikov in July that I think he should have won, but, you know, he's just on such a bad run,

whereas Carl Snarris is coming off that knockout loss to Chaos Williams last year. I, frankly, I just don't know what to make of this. Like, Ponziabio is beaten better dudes. I think at his peak is better. I think he's probably pretty, like, on the decline, but it's not like Carlson Harrison Harrison's spring chicken either. I don't know what to do here. I don't have a better as a result.

Do you have any thoughts on this matchup? I mean, this feels like it could be an over. Carlson Harris's last week I didn't go the distance. These are two old-ass dudes. These are two-old-ass dudes. This is age-appropriate matchmaking, which I like, especially in the World War II Division. This is where I want to see, like, because I still think a lot of these things. fighters have quite a bit to offer.

Like, who did Michael Keza fight last time? Like, Max Griffin, right? I think, right? I think that sounds right. And that, to me, was like, yeah, that's two guys over 35. That's what I want to see. So we're getting that here. Should have been an entertaining striking battle.

I think it's been given the second to last spot for a reason. Again, at Ponzi's always had a bit of name value. They like them there. What are the straight odds again? Let me see this. Close to a pick on Ponzi minus 1.15. Harris, you can get around plus 100 even money. Wow, fight goes the distance.

Very minor plus 100. Fight ends in a split or majority decision plus 400 on bet online. That's only plus 400? Jeez. How is that only plus four? Santiago Ponziwio has, he's been to Splitty City a lot. He has a, you know. He has a condo there.

He has a, he's got, He has a vacation home in Splitty City. I would... Maybe time share. Maybe he doesn't own it. Maybe he just split... He shares time there with... That's my...

I think like Angela Hill. That's my tip to folks. Fight ends in split a matured decision, plus 400. I like that. I like that. It would be... I hope that that's not the case because that means this fight is a tough watch.

14 fights in. We don't need the penultimate fight being a tough watch. I got no action. I just do not have any confidence. in what's going to happen. If you made me, I'd pick Pons and Nibu straight up, but I got no confidence in what's going on in this fight.

Fighting out a little bit more confidence, though, A.K., our next one up, a middleweight contest, Cesar Al-Meda, taking on Abdul Razak al-Hassan al-Han, minus 275 betting favorite, come back on Razak al-Hassan, around plus 240. And I will not bury the lead. I am on Cesar Al-Meda straight up. I just think he's going to win this fight. He's a former glory kickboxing guy. As I've said many times,

one of the strongest bases in MMA is just being glory kickboxer because they all seem to do very, very well, particularly in a matchup like this or Al-Hassan does not shoot that many takedowns. And so I just, also he's on a really bad run. He's like won three fights in his last 10 or something like that. It's very, very bad. I am not sold that Almeida is the second coming or an unbelievable fighter, but I do think he's clearly the better striker, and this should be a primarily striking contest.

So I like Almeida to get it done, probably get a knockout, but certainly get his hand raised. So that is where I am at. A.K., what about you? I'm amazed you can feel any sort of confidence in any Al-Hassan fight. This guy's fights are kind of weird. He's kind of just, again, we had the no contest last time. There was a, like, there was a hot street there where he was just crushing people. the first round and I don't know what to expect from.

I'm surprised that you're not staying away from this one. Again, a couple older dudes, Cesar Almeida, 36, Al-Assan, 39. 39 years, this guy's pushing 40 in the middleweight division. That's not great. Yeah, I support any Al-Meda pick. I think you're right. I'm made it by K.O., that's a good one. I would stay away, were I wagering, which I still might, I'm not sure, but were I

wagering, I would stay away. But if you are going to go, yeah, I think I'm made it by K-O., It was a very fun and safe bet. If you can call any of these bets on this card. I almost certainly normally would have parlayed Almeda, but there's one person that I would consider parley fodder, but I don't want to parlay him for reasons we'll get too shortly. So I just took him straight up.

Normally I would just pair him with a dude coming up who I'm not parlaying. For reasons I'll explain at that point in time. But we press on to a... A middleweight contest is what is up next. Chris Curtis, taking on Roman Koppelov. Koppelov, sizable favorite, minus 250. Come back on Curtis, around plus 225, aka nobody drafted Roman Koppelov in our fantasy league. I was very, very close to drafting him, but decided to have a little bit more fun than I ultimately chose to do so.

Was that a mistake? Is Roman Koppelov about to pick up a big win over Chris Curtis? No. No, this is my first time looking at this line. I'm going to tell me right, I'm looking at this line live. Why the, why the fuck is Roman Koppelov a two to one favorite over anyone? She punches real hard. Uh-huh.

You know who doesn't get hit that hard, like, or at least, you know, rolls with that stuff pretty well? Is one, Mr. Chris Curtis? That's a weird. That's a weird. Like, who has Roman Koppelov fought and done well against? That's anywhere near the level of Chris Curtis. This is a strange one, so I mean. He beat Josh Frimmed.

He did, yep. True. He beat Punila Soriano. Yeah, who is now a Welterweight. And now a welterweight, yep, good. He won a split decision over Seizar Almeida. That's crazy. He just picked.

It's an interesting line that I would say dog or pass would be an option here. Yeah. I went a different way, but I'm with you. Chris God is probably undervalued right now. That is so disrespectful. Betany Sports has Chris Curtis at plus 225 right now. Jump on that. That's all.

This is this. I'm a huge fan of the action man. You know, I'm also biased. Let's tell you. I'm biased. Big fan of the action man. So take it with a green as all. But he is plus 225.

I see as high as that on Bet any sports. And I would jump on it. And I might actually. I may. I'm that confident that this line is whack. I like Roman Coppola love, but like that the confidence is. Line does. Line feels questionable.

I still kind of think Coppola is going to win, but I don't think he should be this big a favorite. What I've done instead, the over two and a half is minus 200. I very much like that. Chris Curtis is extremely durable. If Coppolaov does win, I don't think he's getting Curtis out there. And Curtis, not a huge

finisher himself. So just taking the over two and a half at minus 200, I like it's like you said, it's one of the only, it's the only prop bet I have in my straight bets, not including the climb. But I like the action. That's a funky fight.

That's a funky. This card's a little funky. It's got some... It's definitely a little bit of an interesting one. Let me tell you about an interesting one, A.K. Please. Main card, we got a guy that I am super high on up next. Austin Bashi taking on Christian Rodriguez in a featherweight contest.

Bashi minus 270. Come back on Rodriguez plus 230. Bashi is one of my dudes, A.K., he is, off the most recent season of Contender Series. Super young. Let me look up exactly how young he is. Undefeated, 23 years old. Yeah.

He was one of three prospects I listed as Blue Chip prospects coming off the most recent contender series. I think I had 12 overall prospects I graded out as sort of top tier round one draft pick kind of guys. And I had three of those that I thought were a cut above. them. Bashi is one of them. He is, I likened his game to Aaron Pico or Henry Suhudo. He was one dude who is a little tougher to place because he still is developing, but

incredibly talented young fighter. And he's not getting a softball. Christian Rodriguez's dude who can fight. He's getting a real test. But I think the sky is the limit. I have, hold on one second. Let me see. I am 4 and 0 right now. of backing round one prospects from the latest season of Contender Series.

I think Cody hadn't did a lot of that work for me. Fighting not too far out from here as well. But Bashi is one of those dudes. As people who listened to Obet's Bard last year, know I just blindly backed all of my round one, all of my top prospects from Contender Series 2023. Continuing to do that here, Bashi, minus 270. I would normally look to parlay him with somebody, but given the circumstances, we just didn't.

We're just doing it straight up. And I feel really good about it, A.K., I think he's going to get the dub. Yeah, it reads like a little bit of a trap on paper. Because it wasn't long ago that Christian Rodriguez was, he was maybe not the super hype prospect. He gained a lot of hype after he upset Rell Roses for sure. But he was the kind of guy, like, everyone in the know. Like, if you ask people in the know, they're like, oh, yeah, watch out for Christian Rodriguez. He kind of effed up his own hype train with some really, really bad weight misses.

And again, I actually still think he has the frame of a bantam weight, but he just can't get down there. And that's unfortunate. It kind of showed in the Julianarosa fight, Junior Rosa was a pretty big feather weight. Didn't work out there. I don't know if physically he'll be as much of a disadvantage against Bashi, but, like, again, just the fact that you know he's not fighting his alto weight class. And only because he just, for whatever reason, I think, doesn't have a discipline to make that weight. It's very frustrating to see. But he's really skilled.

talking about Christian Rodriguez. He's really skilled, extremely gritty, pretty well-rounded. So, yeah, this does look like he's being set up, you know, for, you know, for for for for for for for for for for she to have like this, this, um, showcase debut. This may a tough one, man. Sorry, did you say you're taking Bashi as a parley piece? Yeah. Did you say you're just taking Bashi as a parley piece or? I just have them straight. Straight. Because I don't parlay with with my top prospects. I just individually bet them to do it. That's fair. And so otherwise I would use him. as I would I would parlay him with Almeda

but I just have him straight I think his future probably is a band and wait he's a little small he's only like five six or whatever so he's not like an enormous featherweight and so to that point I think you're right Christian Rodriguez will not be as nearly as outsized he was by Juicy Jay

I think Bashi is just sick two's really really fun to watch man I'm curious what the over one and a half line will look like but we don't have that with us right now so but I mean I think that would also be one too throw on there if it was if it was juicy enough yeah because it's this probably going to decision right i'll be really impressed by if you can take out rodriguez fast uh yeah i mean rodriguez fairly durable dude you know uh he did get he got gillied but gillies are different but i

wouldn't shock me if boshy found a way to tap him either um i hope i don't look like an asshole um come sunday morning for all the hype i have given thrown to austin bosh's way also most importantly, by the time this drops, you will probably, I think, already know, we did our fantasy draft, and Bashi is as my featherweight contender. So hopefully he comes in, gets big points, and I will feel terrific about that selection. I thought he would be a bigger favorite and that he would be eligible for your climb step, but I guess he is not. If he had been, if he was not getting a fight that was difficult, he would have been my climb choice. Christian Rodriguez has done enough and is talented enough that I

I probably should but I was just like eh let's let's take one I feel more confident in this we have some we have some wide odds later in the card I wonder if I can talk yeah but I don't like a lot of these wide odds later well we'll get to it we'll get to it I don't want to spoil it coming up to the final main card fight we mentioned this man earlier Punahili Soriano taking on Uros Medich Medich minus 200 favorite. The comeback on Soriano at plus 180.

Okay, what do your thoughts on? Pretty fun little Walterweight scrap here? Take the under. Take the under. I can't imagine it's going to be very good odds for the under. Medici, people know by now his reputation. Does not go to the scorecards. Win or lose, doesn't go. Done to need him. Done need him. Now, Soriano's pretty tough. Like, if he were to go to the score cards for the first time, it wouldn't surprise me if it was against Soriano. This guy's pretty scrappy. And win or lose. It might just be like, you know, Euro-domain's a decision. Or, you know, I think Soriano

going down to Welterweight was the right call for him. So maybe he's like a sneaky contender. Like, I would just pick, uh, what's Medici? Medici is minus 200-ish. Yeah, depending on where you look. I think that's a pretty good straight bet, actually. And I like Puna, but I do think yours a pretty good straight bet. But I would also just take the under. When that line comes out, guys, take a good look at it. And you're not going to get great odds on it, but that's, that's, I feel comfortable saying this doesn't go the, I would say, if I'm thinking between one and a half or two and a half I would go two and a half to be safe

I think there's a chance to end So there's a line for one and a half out Under one and a half is plus 125 I don't know I don't know That's a tough one I would not feel massively confident I could see a late second round Early third round finish

I don't know if it gets into back Under two and a half could be decent And that line might be approachable I am on Medich I just think he's pretty good I think he's like just a very very solid

he's probably never going to be ranked but he's one of those dudes who will be better than most at the Walterweight division I mean his losses are to Mick Debeck Oralby and Jalen Turner like okay those are entirely explicable losses

for that young man so I think maybe he does find his way to a ranking but even if not he's just going to be a dude who's really good just outside and I think he's going to beat up Boonehilim. Moving on to the prelims,

a.K., we are cruising through this, but we're going to cruise even faster because I got way less action. I think so. In fact, I only have two bets left on this card and one of them ain't here. Jose Johnson take it on Felipe Bunes, Bounis.

Johnson, minus 175. The comeback on Bunaeus plus 160. Bunis lost his UFC debut to Joshua. van last year and Johnson is one and two in the UFC though one of those losses is to Osama Biaf I believe your choice to be the flyweight champion of the world at the end contract 25 so you know maybe we give them a pass on that one but yeah I have no interest in betting this fight AK and given how badly it went last year I have no interest in trying to resurrect flyweight unders on this fight I have interest in doing nothing with regard to this

fight and waiting for other moments in time. That's a shame because I think this is a good flyweight undercan. I am, I'm definitely disproportionately intrigued by Jose Johnson. I hate the move down to flyweight, but again, it's kind of hard to tell. He fought such a good guy in his flyweight debut. I don't know whether it's not meant for him because he's a huge, lanky guy. It's not meant for him because he's six feet tall. Uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh.

He's a lanky guy. It's far too big to be flyweight. But I do feel like he's one of those guys who, if he can make the weight, he's going to, like, dominate the lower half of the division, which includes a fully babunis. So I kind of like the flyweight under. And I actually just kind of like him to the straight bit. You know what? I should just say I like Jose at a straight bit. I see minus 170.

Really? I don't think believe babybonnes is. I haven't a daughter past it. Like, if I was going to bet it, I would just be like, I don't know. I don't think Johnson's going to make the weight all that well because he's. he's six feet tall. He's also, he's the curious person where he is six feet tall and doesn't even have like a big reach. Whatever. And he's like, he's going to be like six inches taller than Brunus, but they

have a similar reach. And Brunus might just take him down a bunch. I don't know. To me, this is dogger pass, but it's just pass. Just enjoy the fight. You don't have to bet everything. We have yet to see Jose's best, I feel, in the UFC. And maybe we won't. But I, I, I, I, I, Maybe I'm lingering too much on some regional highlights. I like him to finish this. I like him to finish this. So I would, I would go. I would take the under.

I'm taking a flyweight under. Or sorry, I'd say more confidently, no. I would just pick him straight up. What would have a flyweight under on this one? Well, it's given you plus 115 for the under two and a half. If you were feeling flyweight under's back, I am not. Just not going to do it. But we keep right on rolling to a.

middleweight contest Marco Tullio taking on Ihor Potiria and Tullio a major major favorite minus 400 Poetia plus 375. Poor Tullio he was almost drafted

in a fantasy draft and then was thrown back at the very last minute by E. Casey Leiden Tullio, this is his UFC debut AK. He came off the most recent season of contender series. I did not have him rated very highly. I believe he was draftable.

Like Dave, he was a day three. Was even a day three guy? He was around three to four. Around three to four. So that's not terrible. The grouping after round two, which are the good fighters, are round two and round ones. He is a guy who could maybe stay around, has something to him, but not a lot to him. That being said, Potiere would not have rated well on contendue series.

He has won in four in his last five. I mean, will forever be villainized as the man who ended Chogun Who his career. The duelist, I think Tuleo is probably going to win, but I think you would be kind of nuts. You bet minus 400 on him in these circumstances. I have no action. He should be like a minus 700 fair. I don't think he hears that good.

He's not. I almost feel like minus 400 is a bargain. I mean, I feel like it should be almost twice. this. I just have no faith in he heard of Pretoria winning another UFC. I was surprised he wasn't waived because he's what? I don't know

how he has a job still. I mean, this strikes me. It's just like, you know, they have spots to fill and he has twice less than his contract, right? So like, okay, you still want to fight. He's probably easy to work with. Probably just says, sure, whoever. I'm the guy who ended Shogun's career. Put me in, coach.

I mean, this is... never made promotionally. This is winner lose for, this is winner lose for him. I don't have you heard that phrase about a fight before. It's a real winner lose. Or no contest. Or draw someone.

No, I mean, sorry, it's a winner go home. It's a winner go home. Again, I'm guessing he only has one fight left in his contract anyway or something. So, yes, if he loses, it's probably just, thank you for your service. Take care of, Ihor. And I think they are doing the right thing by trying to bring in Tullio with some degree of hype, give him a very beautiful opponent. I'm not confident Marco can finish him,

but I honestly don't think minus 400 is that bad. If you're parlaying with something else, parlaying him with Bashir maybe, or Bashi and Medich, I don't think that's crazy. I don't think that's crazy. I think you could do worse than that. So, yeah, I don't think he's a bad parley piece of it.

I have a lot of confidence that Tulio's going to pull this off. Plus, he gets to represent the dignity of Brazil and of Vind Shogun, which we always support. You know what else we support A.K.? We support lightweights and we really support this next guy. It's a fight I'm pretty pumped about. Tiago Moises has taken on Trey Ogden. Moises, mine is 200 favorite comeback on Ogden.

We're on plus 170. And I have a bet on Tiago Moises. I like Tiago Moisesisettes a lot. I will say something similar to what I said about Joel Alvarez heading into his most recent fight. Moises is a dude who's really good and never going to get. get the credit he deserves. Yeah. Because he's not a top 15 lightweight,

but he's only lost to top 15 lightweights, basically. Lost to Ben Wastandini, Ludovic Klein, his most recent one in a competitive fun fight. Joel Alvarez, like, he, Islam Makachev, Demir Isma Ginov, the list of people who have beaten him, yes, he is 18 and eight, those eight losses, Benil Daryush, Damiris Magulov, Islam Machachev, just like absolute hitters, he is. very, very talented lightweight, who's just, he'll never be beyond top 30.

But I don't think Trey Ogden is to that level. That being said, I think Trey Ogden is a good fighter. But I like, and this may actually even be a good style matchup for him. But I'm just going to back a dude who I think doesn't get nearly the respect he deserves. And Toggi Mouyev Mouisesson, still a young man, still like 29 or 30. so I'm sticking with the ATT product Tiago Moises. My penultimate bet, I have one more. But yeah, that's where I'm at.

A.K., any thoughts on this matchup? Would it surprise you that Tiago Moises is not one of our old-ass MFers on this card? He feels like he should be a lot older than being... I think he's 30? He's 20. He's 29. He's turning 30. He's not even 30.

He's been fighting for 12 years. Also, is he linked up with fighting nerds now? If he is, I mean, that should change the line considerably. I'll tell you, because... Topology suggests that he's linked up with fighting nerds. Something's in that juice. I don't know. Check his socials, man.

I mean, that's... I'm now checking his socials. Yeah. In my head, he's always been an ATT dude. You got a back up with fighting nerds, then I... This is the steal of my gambling life. Yeah, Trey Ogden, a solid talent, but you got to go with Tiago here. The guy is just really good.

It just faces a league competition to a tough. a tough fight. You know, that you can always, if you're picking tray, you might be assuming, oh, you know, maybe there's always chance for a letdown, which is possible. You know, sometimes you don't, you don't. He's representing fighting nerds now. Oh, put it all on. Put it all.

Let it ride. This should be my client right. You know what? I'm sorry. I don't want to go back to the Marco Tullio thing too much, but I was, I was just looking at something as you were moving on. Sorry, Marco and Ehor. Do you know what Ehor's record is against Brazil?

since fighting Shogun? Oh, God. I hope it's terrible. What is it? He's fought three Brazilians since Hadofo Balato,

Michelle Panetta, and Cesar Almeida, and he's lost all of them. So he is 0 and 3 against... And Mark Coulio... Yes. We may have to be that because Mark Houtuilio is also from Brazil.

So he has not beaten a Brazilian since the curse of Shogun has derailed. Oh, man. So you may have to... Yeah, yeah, I think we need to... I think we got to... We got a walk. They...

I'm just saying The guy can't be Brazilians anymore Also, if he lost Then it would really solidify Potia As my worst enemy You might be talking to me In the Marco Tullio as a climb bet Instead of

Instead of during He boss It's such a more enjoyable bet Isn't it? F it I laugh it You lock it in Did you This is the book

Tuduio minus 400 So you mentioned that Mike and I talked about the climb on our On to the Next Run prediction show. And Mike was saying that you will complete the climb with assistance from your friends. I'm hoping that this is the assistance. I told him. I've already tripped you off once. I think I'm already responsible for one. Honestly, the exact circumstance where I was like, I kind of want to do this and you're like, you just do it.

I was like, okay. Oh, well, let's, if Marco Tullio gets got and then Hebas Dern 2 is the worst fight of all time, I'm going to be upset. But I'll then just have a new villain to hate and that's okay. Ehor does not has not, does not beat Brazilian since Shogun. All right, Shogun has cursed him. You will never defeat another Brazilian again. This is the, this is the price you pay for any way. Let's be, let me be really honest about this.

This is one of those that you can talk me into because we're only at level six. Okay. Like, this is a $360 bet that goes on Tullio, right? It's not nothing, but that's a manageable bet. If this was like level 20 and it's like, hey, you're going to put three grand on Tullio, I'd be like, nope, I am not doing this. But we're only level six. All right. So, Marco Tullio, welcome to the climb.

Yes. I can't believe I got talked into that. Let me. Here's something I didn't need to be talked into. I didn't have a place to bet on this. I'm going to need to place a bet on this. I don't know what the hell I was doing. It's not here on my board.

Sorry, I got distracted. Yeah, this is a newer fight. There's a relatively new fight, which I guess is maybe why not. A welterweight contest, Preston Parsons, taking on Jacoby Smith. Smith minus 350, stepping in on short notice for... Andreas Gustafson. Oh, I'm sorry. You know, Ash was the other time.

Stevenant and Frasiery. Yes. Yes, correct. Parsons 2 and 3 in the U.C. lost to Obanelli in July. Jacobi Smith is a dude I am super, super high on as well from continued series. He is on your fantasy team. He is in round one.

He is on my fantasy team as my well-to-weight combatant. He is a round-one draft pick, not quite a blue chipper, a little too raw, but my comp for him was Shades of John Jones. If that gives you any idea of sort of, what I think he is capable of. Not the same, but super, super exciting

prospect for me. Just very, very raw. It needs a lot of development. Unfortunately, Preston Parsons, I can't remember if I get this wrong, and if Preston Parsons is the dude that Mike Heck said was the worst fighter in the UFC or not. No, isn't it the other? It's somebody else who's illiterate. If it's not Preston Parsons, it's somebody else.

But I think Preston Parsons is being set up to fail here. and Jacobi Smith should get this done and so I'm on Jacobi Smith at minus 350. If I was being reasonable, I would actually just parlay Smith and Bashi together as my round one prospect. So maybe I'll end up doing it, but I don't think so.

Jacobi Smith, minus 350's where I'm at. And very excited to see this kid because, again, I think he's got a bright, bright future. Huge favorite. Huge favorite for Guy being his debut. A bit of a madman, for sure. If anyone saw, I think, his last win before the UFC,

knocks the guy out in what, like, 10 seconds or something, and then does this just truly insane celebration where he's just belly, sorry, not his last fight, this was two fights ago. 18 second knockout. Just belly flop, not belly, like back flopping into the air and doing this tumbling routine. Somewhere in there was a celebration.

It was quite dazzling and much, much longer in the actual fight itself. So be very excited for Jacobi Smith. I know a lot of people are high on him. I mean, when you're debuting off the original scene as like a minus 350 favorite, that is, that is something else. I'll tell you. That is something else. Plus, he's got a standard to bear. When you are a top pick from my prospect watch, I think they went, I think the original class went 18 and 2 or is still like currently at 18 and 2.

And one of those losses was a split decision loss that I thought was garbage. and I think most people thought was garbage. So he's got a lot to live up to. I think Mr. Smith is going to do just that. Rolling right along to the final bet that I have on this card, a prelim women's flyweight contest. Neither of these women got drafted, AK. They could have women's flyway is tough.

Not a lot of options thus far, but Ernesta Karakati, I think. I may have butchered that, and if so, I am very sorry. versus Nicole Calliari, and I am on Nicole Colliery, aka both women came off Contender Series. Ernesta was 2023. She, I did not, and Dana White did not think she won her fight on Continger Series, ultimately gets in the OC, lost her debut to Deoni Barbosa last year. Calliari will be making her debut. She was off the 2024 season of Condender Series,

where I had a graded as a round two prospect. So she's got some tools to work with. Doesn't really have the high-end athleticism or sort of A-plus skill that makes me think that you are going, you know, she's a real title challenger, perennial top 15 person, but somebody who probably going to hang around the promotion for a while. And frankly, I think it's just a little more talented than KT. I could absolutely be wrong here. Plus 235 just seems like a really big number. That's crazy. Caliari is a little bit more talented.

And so as a result, this is a value bet that I don't have a lot of anticipation I will win with, but wouldn't shock me at all if Kalari came in and just was a little scrappier than Ernest is. How is this not just like a pick-um? Like what do they know? What do they know that we don't know? They know something because I've watched her nest a fight and she's not great. Like I thought she lost to Carly Judice on Contender Series. She'd lost a Deani Barbosa, you know, there's a kickboxing background and was undefeated prior to the Barbosa fight, but I don't know.

The odds seem too long here. What? Especially like, Colling Ari's beaten legitimate competition. Like, she's fought people with real resumes prior to getting into the UFC. And so not all of them, because nobody has. But I just feel like I'm getting a good price. You're getting a great price. Yeah, take the dog.

This should be a pickle. This is weird. What? Yeah, wow. I'm like, okay. I'm reeling from that one, Jed. Strange. Really.

Okay. Are you going to be reeling from this incredible light heavyweight contest? Magamad Gadsiazulov taking on Bruno Lopez. The undefeated Gadsiazulov is your betting favorite. Mine is 225. Come back on Lopez plus 200. another pair of contender series talents. Gadzia Zulov was a 2023 contender series person who won his UFC debut against

Brinson Habero in June. He was graded for me as old but talented category as a dude who was like 30 in his 30s, but showed a little bit of ability. Lopez was a day three guy for the 2024 season for me. just a dude, maybe you win some. I don't, nothing jumped out of the page as super exciting for me in this light heavyweight contest. As a result, I would probably, you know, straight pick them, aka I'd go gods here, but I'm just, I got enough action already. I have no bet on this one.

Yeah, I wouldn't either. That said, this is light heavyweight, and one of these guys could be like three knockouts away from a title fight or something. I honestly have no, I have no feel for their prospects. I have no feel for this particular fight. Yeah, stay away is the, has to be the right way to go. Godzuzul is undefeated. So a couple of wins, and he's in the top 15 of this one class. I mean, even Lopez, 13 and 1, that's a gaudy-looking record.

I mean, you love that. I honestly, I think. Fair point. Moving on the second bout of the evening, a strongly contest. Fatima Klein, taking on Victoria Dutakova. We got some odds here, Jen. We got some odds here. I'm the biggest favorite on the card.

Mama Mia. Minus 800, the comeback on Dutakova plus 650. If Dutkova pulls this upset off, A.K., I believe that that will be good enough to be the ninth biggest upset in the history of the UFC. Betting odds-wise, I am not 100%, but it's something near that if it's not number nine. So, Vegas is very, very convinced that Fatima Klein is getting this done. I agree in general. I don't agree to place my money at this price because that's a big number, A.K. That's a monster number.

Now, don't get wrong. You know, Dutakova is no, like, huge prospect. She's coming off a loss of Sam Hughes, which is no shame in that. Sam Hughes has this kind of is kind of a weird upset fighter. Like, she's very nondescript, and she just, they throw her in fights and they assume she get crushed. And she's, she spoiled some, she spoiled some fighters' UFC momentum, let's put. that way. Klein is such an interesting case because clearly a highly touted prospect, very, very young, 24 years old. People didn't expect her to, you know, there was some underdog talk of her debut,

but there was also the fact that she was going up to 125, taking out short notice, Jasmine Yostovish has proven to be a pretty good UFC fighter. So like, I think Klein was the underdog by the end, but there were some people who thought like she was a sneaky pick to pull that off. So no shame in that loss, and it looks like no, no hype has been diminished by. by that step back, now that she's back in 115. Apparently not. No, now I expect Womteampe. People are expected to absolutely run through Dutakova.

This is a wide, wide line. This would be the 16th, tied for 16th biggest upset, odds-wise in UFC history of DGykova pulls this off. And you were not on the futures, but I mentioned this on the futures episode. 2024 was actually a lot of very big upsets. there were like six upsets over 2024 that rated in the top 100 biggest upsets of all time UFC history odds-wise including Wang Song's defeat to I can't remember her name right now which was a top 10 of Gabriela Fernandez yes so you know we're on a we're on a bit of momentum with big upsets yeah this would be

This would kick us off with a monster upset in the second fight of the year. Yeah. It's just always so scary to me to see someone who is so young, does not have a lot of fights under the belt. Not that due to COVID as a seasoned veteran or anything. But, like, I just don't think, like, anyone entering this level with so little experience. And at that age, should be, like, minus, I'm seeing as high as minus 1,200 on some random website. So this is crazy. Like, again, I just wouldn't, I just wouldn't bet on a client.

I just think there's no reason to, even as a partly piece, it's. what's the point? It's barely going to move it. So, I don't know. I'm sorry, what did you say? I had nothing on this. Yeah, I don't see how you can. What is tantalizing about this?

Unless someone else is doing their own climb. Unless, you know, if you're at home and you're doing your own version of the climb and you're that high on Fatima Climb. You can do the Climb Climb this week, okay, if you're that high on it, but I don't think it's worth it. See, that's, now you're selling it. You don't need to do. Yeah, you have your own thing.

No, you don't need to go. I already got talked into a climb piece I didn't really want. We're here. Listen, if you've been listening to Betts Bart a home and you're like, I want to start the climb, but I don't feel very confident about it. Like, I don't, I don't, I don't, maybe this is the bet to start you off. Maybe Fatima Klein can be your first step on your. So you don't have to climb with 100. You could do a 10-buck climb and turn it to $2,000.

Yeah, you know, just for fun. See how long you can, you can take it. We love fun. We love fun here. Speaking of fun, the opening bout of the evening, the first bout of 2025 in the Octagon, Nerulo Aliev taking on Joe Seleki in a lightweight contest. Originally, it was supposed to be Alia versus Yianala Shmuz. Seleki steps in is, I think, the second biggest underdog on the court at plus 325.

Aliev minus 425 as the betting favorite. A.K., the only note I have on this is that Aliev is theoretically very good. He's only 24. He's undefeated. He won his UFC debut. his UFC debut was almost a full two years ago in February of 2023. He has not competed in two years, and that is enough to scare me away from even having Aliev as a poorly piece, despite Seleki probably being set up to fail here.

Yeah, I like Joe Seleki, but I just, I think the line here is right. It's pretty spot on. Allieff, you're right, the thing he's got of the inactivity. He's coming off a leg injury, I believe. But again, he's young. He's 25. It's not like he's a 31, 32-year-old guy coming off a leg injury. I don't think that that's any reason to be scared of his future prospects.

But for this particular fight, yes. Again, there's not a lot of reason to, again, want to add him to a parlay or just bet him straight up. Like, it's just not there. So this feels like a pretty good stayaway fight on a card where, again, I think it's a long year. It's a long year. You don't have to get in the first fight. Because people, you're going to have a lot of action next week.

So I would say, you know, take your two. If you want to just wait your appetite, to take two. Three wins next week. Two or three fun best this week, and that's it. And then just add nothing about it. Thing, with long year, we're going to have 42 events plus, because it's just 42 UFC events coming down the pipeline.

We got UFC 311 next week. No need to force the issue. If you want to just have fun because it's the first fight of the year, I get it. Godspeed, pick Aleev. He's probably going to win, but not for me. I got enough action. And, uh, AK. We've done more than enough.

We've gone almost an hour on... Objectively, not a terrific card. So I think we can end it here because we're almost on the road to UFC 311, which is an exceptional card. I'm so excited to have you back gambling again. I'm so excited that I'm going to stomp your fantasy team into the core of the earth with mine. If you haven't listened or watched that, make sure you go hop and do that. AK, thank you for joining me this week. Thank all of you for tuning in.

into this edition of No Best Barg. We will see you next week for USC 311. Love y'all.