MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Mackenzie Dern Rebound With Win Over Angela Hill At UFC Vegas 73?

Episode Date: May 17, 2023

UFC Vegas 73 takes place this Saturday headlined by a strawweight showdown between Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill, and you know what that means: the No Bets Barred boys are back to break it all down. ...Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew begin the show with a recap of UFC Charlotte before diving into the lackluster card that is UFC Vegas 73. Highlights include debate about the main event, dissension on a couple of other main card fights, and a slew of technical difficulties. But things do get spiced up down the stretch as Conner and Jed react live to the breaking news about UFC 291 and the return of the BMF Belt. Tune in for Episode 46 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,
Starting point is 00:00:42 What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster, The Downloaded.
Starting point is 00:01:29 It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Bet's Bard. This time, UFC Apex 73.
Starting point is 00:02:20 We're back in the Apex. Love the Apex. I have McKenzie Dern, Angela Hill. We were supposed to get it last week. Let's push it to this week and let's make it the main event, baby. I was pretty pissed. We were only going to get three rounds. Now we get the full five, 25 minutes, if necessary.
Starting point is 00:02:39 Absolutely can't wait for it. It's a UFC card. The UFC's going to put it on. It certainly is a UFC card. I have slightly come around. I'm not here to tell you this is good. It's not. The fights, at least on paper, appear largely competitive.
Starting point is 00:03:03 If you're looking for a silver lining, like... Competitive fights, I think there's going to be some violent fights. I think we're going to get some finishes. Yeah, I'm trying, I feel like I've been overly pessimistic. And when I say I feel like that, people have told me that I have just been a big old negative, Nancy. and I think all of it's been deserved, frankly, but maybe you'll bring a different energy this week, and I will try to take this the worst of all cards and lift it up.
Starting point is 00:03:32 I think here's the thing. I think you fall into two camps. You either are in the camp of any card is better than no card, and I can somewhat get on board with that, or you fall into the quality of card is so lacking that I'm not even excited for it. Like if we're going to do this every single word, week, then like it becomes diminished. I would rather, your argument is that we should have three
Starting point is 00:03:57 cards a month. I would way rather skip some weeks and the cards be way more stacked than like, like at the end of the day, a lot of these fights have little to no steak. Absolutely. Absolutely. And that's always been the crux for me. I've a big steak. Love steak. You know, give me a porterhouse, give me a filet, you know, give me the strip, any of the steaks, but I just want some kind of steak. And that's it, man, you know, and it's also just a part of the problem is that, like, this is supposed to be the time where things are rocking. Like, we're hitting the summer stretch. Like, things are supposed to be cooking. And the next eight weeks or whatever is, it's a lot of tough hangs.
Starting point is 00:04:47 And this is just kind of the, not even the beginning, because last week was the beginning. this is just continuation. So I'm trying to be positive. I'm trying to come at this from a better angle so I don't spend the whole summer being bummed out about the events we're getting. I'm trying a new tack. I got some bets.
Starting point is 00:05:04 I got some bets. I got some plus money bets too. That's how we're going to make it fun. That's how we're going to enjoy it. See, that is always the key, right? That's what I tell people like, hey, yes, this fight card isn't very good. If you have other things to do, you should probably do them.
Starting point is 00:05:17 But if you don't, you know, a great way to spice up to liven up an unsuspecting fight card. Throw a little money down. That'll make you care. Let me tell you, there's a reason that I was on the edge of my seat for Carl Williams versus Chase Sherman last week. And it wasn't because that was dynamic heavyweight action. Great heavyweight over.
Starting point is 00:05:39 I mean, that was a fantastic bet. I mean, not really too much concern the entire way throughout that. But yes, you want me to talk glowingly about UFC Vegas. Let me go ahead and win five units on it. And then I'll be talking about it like it was the best card ever. Best card ever. Before we get into this week, because one, I do have a thing to say on this week. Well, let's talk about last week for just a minute, Connor, because did you, I lost.
Starting point is 00:06:06 Did you lose or did you win? Yeah, I lost, got too greedy with the under three and a half parlayes, lost them both. Should have never done them. Should have just simply sat on my Jelton Almeida positions. Never in doubt. Jailton, I'm made up. Never, ever, ever in doubt, like I could have just been like, there was a point at the beginning of the week where I was just like,
Starting point is 00:06:29 all right, I got the chaos wings and the Jailton carrying over, really like the Oldberg Jailton Parlay. I was like, maybe I'll just do that. Had I done that, I would have. Stress-free money-making weekend. The most stress-free winning week of all would have won like 2.6 units. we would have been on our way to green, but instead I had to throw in a bunch of dumb shit. So yes, I lost two units.
Starting point is 00:06:57 Oh, that's around where I'm at. I was a little under two. Did you get burned on the Mandy bomb Kim Kim Jong? Or did you have the one and a half? I had the over one and a half. I got, I wouldn't call it burned, but unfortunate circumstances in the Cody Stamen fight. I was with you on the Stamen bet.
Starting point is 00:07:15 And so, yes, very unfortunate circumstances in that. I agree. Can't quite call it burned, even though it does feel. Because if he gets to keep that position in round one, maybe he does win that round. And so then he wins the fight, wins the decision. Man, it looked like he was about to get that finish in the third. And that third, that would not have helped me as I was on the by decision prop, but I was still kind of rooting for it just anyway because it felt deserved after what happened in round one.
Starting point is 00:07:42 And the difference for me last week was the bomb, Gian. The over two and a half hits, I cash a bet for you. Plus money, I have a winning week. Instead, my parley dies with 20 seconds left because of that DQ. So I was in the same boat. Cody Stamming gets that decision, it's a winning week. Ian Gary D. Rod, which I know it wasn't close. If that goes over one and a half, it's a winning week.
Starting point is 00:08:10 Shocker of the week, Ian Gary getting that done in the first. For some reason, as the card was going on, I was getting more and more nervous about that. And of course, it ended up not working out for me. Johnny Walker, Anthony Smith, if that doesn't go to a decision, it's a winning week. That's also a super tough. Again, not a bad beat, but a tough one. Yeah. Oh, it was quite frustrating.
Starting point is 00:08:34 I mean, it looked like he was going to get the finish in the first round. And then again, in the third when he was just teeing off on the ground. It looked like he could have gotten it, but he kind of took his foot off the gas too. I think he said as much in the post-fight interview. He's just like, yeah. Unfortunately, just one of those weeks, it's always. tough when it's just like if one thing had just gone your way, it's a winning week, it is what it is. Hopefully it's, we're back in the confines of the apex. Hopefully it's no nonsense this week.
Starting point is 00:09:01 You know, speaking of being in the confines of the apex in this week, I'm just going to let the listeners know, I don't have any bets this week. And that's not because I'm taking a reflective week. I'm trying to look back. Don't know if you guys heard, Francis Ngano signed with the PFL, kind of big news, been dealing with that for the last, let's call it 24 hours because we all knew it was coming. Haven't totally had time to dive in. So this week, Connor, I mean, I've got a couple of bets I'm going to have to make, obviously.
Starting point is 00:09:32 But I also have some vibes, some feels. And so as we walk and talk our way through these fights, I'm going to let you kind of guide me, see if my vibes are good, then we're going to place bets on them. If they're not, you know, we'll reflect, we'll reconvene, we'll figure. geared out. So that's how we're doing it from my end this week. I have seven bets. Seven. Okay. Uh, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Yep. And a parlay. Got a little boxing action as well, if you want to count that. That makes it eight. Love boxing. Uh, I'm even to have some LFA action this weekend. Oh, my good. I mean, we all do, don't we? Isn't this card just filled with X LFA and
Starting point is 00:10:13 Invitifficit fighters? Essentially an LFA card. But let's do it. Let's dive in. Let's get through. this. Let's talk it out, and then we'll have a nice week off from Memorial Day weekend here in the States. Let's start with the main event of the evening. Women's straw wait about five rounds if we need that many. Mackenzie Dern takes on Angela Hill. Your initial thoughts on this. I was going to stay away, but I've now dipped my toe in. Your thoughts on this fight. I love that you've dipped your toe in because I'm very interested. So this is one of the fights that actually have had some time to dive in, watch tape, and make a decision on, but I can't quite make a decision because for me, I have two lenses that I'm viewing this. One is sort of just
Starting point is 00:11:02 holistically and statistically feel like this is a dog or pass situation for Angela Hill. She's pretty good at defending takedowns has gotten better as time has gone on in general, certainly has improved her grappling as well. And that's McKinsey-Durne's game, right? She's not going to win a stand-up affair. She's going to take you down. She's going to try and submit you. She's not really a big grounded pound artist, which I think is like the most frustrating aspect of her game. And if Angela Hill can stuff take down, so just sort of outwork her on the feet as is her way. And, you know, Hill hasn't been subbed in like four years. She's had a ton of fights in that time. My biggest issues here, though, are one, she's two and eight as an underdog.
Starting point is 00:11:41 So she doesn't really cash tickets as an underdog, which is always tough. And two, holistically all this makes sense, but she just lost two. Like, just lost to Viena D'EJeroba, like two, two, three fights back. Fyner Jangerroba not as good or as accomplished of a grappler as McKinsey Dern. And so, yes, Jensi Robo couldn't get the submission, but she did repeatedly score takedowns, held a ton of control time. And so Dern can maybe do that. now 25 minutes versus 15 that probably favors Hill but I'm I'm currently in the dog or pass lean right here shove me one direction or another sir all right so I've been a notorious
Starting point is 00:12:28 McKenzie Dern fader I have bet against her the last three fights it's worked out for me I recall this oh yeah it's worked out for me twice Marina Rodriguez and uh your girl I'll say your girl my girl My guy, Janjohnana has been good to me of late. So you might need to put her on the wall. I was one of Connerbecks, Connerberg's bets right there. She's getting close. An all-Chinese strawweight title, that's a tall task right there. But let's say I get dog odds on her there and she cashes.
Starting point is 00:13:03 I think you're definitely getting dog odds on her there. It's just a matter of what she cash. Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt we're getting dog odds. But, I mean, I'm cool with with Zhang as well. Yeah, we'll see that. I just like, I don't love McKenzie Dern's game, like, especially against top-tier opponents. But I'm feeling McKenzie Dern's sub just because, or maybe even inside the distance, I haven't played this yet, but I'm going to either inside the distance or sub. You said she doesn't have much ground-and-pound?
Starting point is 00:13:35 Yeah, she does not. I mean, she has been in some great positions to get a ground-and-pound finish. I mean, she just had them in the last... She may have beaten Jan Jaunan if she had ever tried to punch her instead of just fishing for a joke that wasn't there. All right, so that's another thing. Back to me being a McKenzie Dern fader.
Starting point is 00:13:54 Yes, I've cashed two of the last three tickets fading her and gotten plus money odds each time. But God, if I have not sweat. It is a stressful thing fading McKenzie Dern because she might have terrible takedowns. Like, what is it? Like 11, 12% takedown accuracy. See, she manages to get it to the ground, especially when it is a 25-minute affair.
Starting point is 00:14:17 She gets opponents in terrible, terrible positions, but of late, she hasn't been able to finish it. She hasn't been able to land the sub and fully get it in and get the opponent to tap. I don't know why it's just kind of the universe here. I think with the 25 minutes, I think it actually favors Dern a little bit because it gives her more opportunities. What round was it that it could have arguably been a 10-8 for Dern against Yon? It was either four or five. I don't recall. It was one where she just absolutely dominated it.
Starting point is 00:14:55 It was a very clear-cut fight. I want to say it was round four because I feel like she did really well in rounds one and four. There were two rounds where Dern did really well and three were Yon. It was like a very clear-cut fight. Either way, she gets her opponents into very dicey situations. I know Hill hasn't been subbed in like four years. She has been subbed three times in the UFC. If you count the Asparza fight as well from the ultimate fighter,
Starting point is 00:15:22 I think McKenzie Dern gets this done inside the distance. Would you play inside the distance or sub? Because like it's got to be the sub prop. That number's got to be a little bit bigger. It really all depends on the line. I like it. Like I'm seeing some plus 150, but then there's another book that says inside the distance plus 165.
Starting point is 00:15:40 So it just all depends on, all just depends on what I get. Dern has zero KO finishes. Yeah, I don't think she's going to KO Angela Hill. I think she's going to submit her. But like if it's, if it's, if it's plus 160 sub, plus 165 inside the distance, or I mean, vice versa, plus 160 inside the distance, plus 165. Who cares?
Starting point is 00:16:03 I'll take the five points just in case if she finally does get that ground and pound. What I have started to learn to do with these, with these like exacta props, is really wait until the full market is out there, unless the price is unbelievable. Because there's sometimes where I'm sitting there on like Thursday or Friday, and people are like, oh, Fandle just dropped X, Y, Z, and it's like 200 points better than what I got it at.
Starting point is 00:16:26 Yeah, so I'm going to wait. I'm going to see, but I think I'm going to end up taking Dern inside the distance or Dern's sub. That's good. I'm glad we talked this out because it's walking me back from thinking dog here. If you take Angela Hill, you are going to be sweating. Oh, well, that was always, always a guarantee. There's no world in which Angela Hill wins this fight super cleanly.
Starting point is 00:16:50 Like she may win a decision, but it's, McKinsey Dern is going to have her moments. The question is just whether she can finish the fight, or maybe she just has enough moments like Vina Genji Roba. I even had briefly looked at this one as a, can I get Angela Hill by decision? because all she does is win decisions, but the price isn't even like better.
Starting point is 00:17:11 She's plus 200 for my decision, and she's like 160 as a straight dog, so you're not really getting a huge ditch. I didn't go back and watch the T.Tia Torres-Mackenzie during fight because I was on T-Jotora's that one. Just looking at the stats, it feels like T-Shita T-Torra I sure won that. I recall it being relatively controversial,
Starting point is 00:17:33 but again, I also did not go back and watch it. And that's, that kind of, I think, was part of my reflexive, like, sort of want to fade Dern and Hill here. Because I was on Duren in the Janjanaan fight. We were on opposite sides. And that first round, I was feeling good. It was like, oh, this is a wrap. And then she just never did it.
Starting point is 00:17:52 And then the fight got away from me and kind of has turned me off her. So I think I'm just passing. Playing McKenzie Dern at minus 175 is risky business this weekend. that yeah that doesn't feel like a bet i would make personally here's what i will say as terrible as her takedowns are over the last three fights obviously she she lost two of those eight minutes of control time against marina hadriguez three minutes of control time against decia torres and almost ten minutes of control time against jaunan i think she gets you down i think she's going to have some serious moments this weekend i think
Starting point is 00:18:33 she's going to finish the fight. I think she's going to. I can totally buy that. I think I'm going to... But Angel Hill winning a decision? And Angel Hill winning a 48-47 decision would not shock me either. We're doing this on Tuesday and, you know, D.K. has not dropped all of their line suite. Might see what... I mean, it's probably going to be pretty pricey, but see what a either-or-bett, hill by decision, or Dern by submission bet, I might maybe see if I could thread a perfect need. right there, but otherwise, I think I'm going to pass.
Starting point is 00:19:06 Depending on what that is. Yeah. If it's minus 200, then fuck that. Excuse me. If it's like, no, if it's like minus 150, I'd probably take a shot at minus 150. Just for just maybe a half unit, just something for funzies there. Yeah, speaking of funzies, I feel like betting Dern by submission will be fun because there's going to be a couple moments where it looks like it's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:19:27 Yeah, or it's going to be incredibly frustrating if she just stands and strikes for 25 minutes. You know? I guess we'll see. Either way, that is the main event and we will see come Saturday evening in the apex. Moving on to the co-main event of the evening.
Starting point is 00:19:44 Middleweight bout Edmund Shabazi and taking on Anthony Fluffy Hernandez. So I'm with you in this camp. I have nothing on this one. Don't know if this one tickles your fancy. I think Fluffy's going to get it done. I mean, the wrestling is just so relentless. But Shabazzian,
Starting point is 00:20:02 dude, he's got power and he can finish people. The price tag for me, I can't get around playing Hernandez. I know a lot of people are on Shabazzian as pretty big dog odds this week. I think Hernandez was like as big as like a minus 310 or something beginning a week. He's down to minus 240 now. But I'm just staying away at this point. Oh, that's a shame. I really wanted you to sell me on this one because I base this on very little.
Starting point is 00:20:28 This is a lot of vibes. but Shabazian's price is calling me a little bit. And again, my head says that that's probably real dumb because, as you mentioned, the wrestling from Hernandez is just, there's just so much of it. And he's got eight takedowns in both of his last two fights. Shabazian's not a great defensive wrestler. And when he has lost, most of his losses in the UFC have come because dudes have just taken him down and outgrappled him.
Starting point is 00:20:58 So that's, that is certainly a very concerning thing. My one big thing is I still, I see the talent in Shabazian, and I think maybe that's where I'm just projecting here. It's like, I see what he could be moved to Extreme Couture last year, and that immediately pays dividends against Lungimbialla. I can't ever pronounce that man's name. I think getting with Extreme Couture is really good for his career overall. I think it's going to make him a much better fighter. and we've seen what Nick Sick and company have done with. It feels like everybody that's coming to their gym these days.
Starting point is 00:21:32 So I think this is definitely a dog or pass situation. And I really wanted you to be like, I'm on Shabazzian this week. And then I wasn't like, hell yeah, let's punch it in. I may still chase this one, though, just because I can't get away from the potential, Connor, the potential. Listen, I wouldn't blame you, but the Daltrow fight, like, that was that was a setup that was a setup to bounce back like that was like bro he's fighting
Starting point is 00:22:02 he's busting into the top 10 of the division and then he loses three straight and then it's just like let's get you back on course here and now I think sometimes you need those hey I agree I agree but now I believe that this is you know back to that level of
Starting point is 00:22:16 of where he should be at it's a tough fight I mean here's the thing if you win it I think he might get K-O. If you lose it, it's going to be like a just wrestle, wrestle, wrestle. It's going to be a miserable watch. Just like, ah, this sucks. Why did I do this? Hernandez would get an immediate takedown. At the odds, you're right. Like the potential, like the odds. I would have liked, I would have liked the
Starting point is 00:22:42 comeback on a minus 310 way better than where he's sitting right now. Oh yeah. Yeah. I mean, this line is really on the move. Yeah. On Sunday evening, on Monday morning, Hernandez was minus 300. Fuck, Monday night. Yeah, a lot of money coming in. Not sure that I want to follow all that money, but so it goes. All right, let's keep it rolling. Let's move on to a women's catchweight bout of 120 pounds. Lupita Godina is taking on Emily DuCote.
Starting point is 00:23:16 Godina is stepping in on 11 days noticed after just fighting on UFC 287. I don't know if you remember what I did on UFC. to 87, but I tried to fade Lupi Godinez. We came that close to cashing. It was a good effort, a good try. Why did you try to fade her again?
Starting point is 00:23:39 I just don't think she's that good and she doesn't rely on the wrestling enough. Okay. I mean, that's not wrong. I mean, she has like these clear path to victories and she just doesn't take it and she did it again against Calvio. So what am I doing?
Starting point is 00:23:53 I'm going right back to the world, maybe 11 days notice. just fought six weeks ago come fight time on Saturday. Give me Emily DuCode as the underdog. Oh, well, this is a shame, Connor. Because this is one of the few fights that I do, do have a bet of my own volition on. And the bet's on Lupi Godinez.
Starting point is 00:24:16 And the bet is not on Lupi Godinez because I think that she's a great fighter or anything like that. The bet is on Lubbigo Dinez because that's what the AI is telling me to bet. Chat GPT bet of the week. Connor, you're doing okay. Chat GPT got rinsed last week betting on Anthony Smith. It was not close to correct in its assessment.
Starting point is 00:24:41 So we're still up on the year with Chad GPT, up on the experiment, but it's coming off a tough weekend. This is the one I chose for the bounce back. Won't give you the whole outline, but the short version is, Godinez is grappling prowess takes its toll on Dakota. She secures a couple of takedown and showcases ground control.
Starting point is 00:25:03 In the end, judges scorecards revealed Lupi Godinez emerges as the winner, the hard fought victory. So Chad Cpte says Lupi Godinez is about to win a decision. I can see it. She's probably right. Chat Cptc is probably right if that's what happens if she goes for the wrestling. Listen, man, there's a world. If she does, that's a question, though. Listen, though, I mean, this isn't Curtis Blades here.
Starting point is 00:25:25 Like, she's not just blasting doubles and, and, like, she's not Jailton Alameda. She's not football tackling you. Emily Dukode has stuffed all 10 takedowns in the UFC. There's a war where she tries to wrestle, and she can't. And I think it's just going to be close again, as Lupita always does, and I will continue to take the plus money against her. I think that's probably reasonable because this is, I feel like this is going to be a close fight either way. you go. I'm also, again, no bets, but I am strongly looking for when the over one and a half
Starting point is 00:26:02 line drops here as a parlay piece. Just the Seaberg special minus 700 for that parley piece. It's going to be minus 700. That is a Seaberg special. I got a chalky parlay this weekend that we can get into later. Yeah, I mean, another thing is, like, Lupita Godinas is always down to scrap. She's very game. But with that, when you take fights on 11 days notice and you just fought six weeks ago and like you weren't in camp, you're not really making those big improvements.
Starting point is 00:26:32 So we're probably going to see the same or similar Lupita Godinez we just saw six weeks ago. Oh, yeah. There's almost no chance she's any different than what we just witnessed. All right. There it is. I will be playing the dog. Chat GPT will be playing Lupita Godinez. One of us has to win.
Starting point is 00:26:51 keep it rolling. Wellterweight bout Joaquin Buckley taking on Andre Fialo the Portuguese man back in the octagon right now Joaquin Buckley can be had for minus 225
Starting point is 00:27:07 Fialo coming back plus 190. Anything on this fight, sir? I don't even have a great read on this fight. This was a fight that I think is going to be pretty fun. Warkin Buckley is not always fun. but he certainly has the potential for high levels of violence.
Starting point is 00:27:25 Andre Fialho is pretty much always fun. He's going to come in. He's going to throw him until one dude falls. Lately, it's been him. He is the one been fallen lately, but against Buckley that I could see that carrying on because Buckley has a lot of power, as we've obviously seen.
Starting point is 00:27:44 I, this feels like these odds may be pretty correct, right? Like it seems like maybe that's a little heavier on Buckley than I would have guessed, but nothing too major. I just don't feel confident putting money on either side of this action right now, though. All right. So I play Buckley. Are you confident? Yeah. I played Buckley, but I played him on Sunday and he was minus 165. That's a much better price. It is. Still don't mind them as a parlay piece just because I went back and watched the tape on Fiala. and his last two fights, dude, did not look great.
Starting point is 00:28:24 I mean, like, his wins is the level of competition that he got wins against. Cameron Van Camp, and I'm having trouble even remembering who. Miguel Baezza. Miguel Baezza. I mean, Baezza is a decent win. I mean, both those guys are out of the UFC now, though. When he fought guys like Jake Matthews and Moslem Salakov, they poured it on and they absolutely melted dude and finished him in both fights with Buckley. I just can see almost the exact same thing happening.
Starting point is 00:28:52 Like he's going to come out here. He's going to put some volume on him. He's going to put a little bit of pace, and he has that finishing power to put him out. He's also moving down to Welterweight, which I think is going to be a benefit to him as long as the cut goes well. I agree.
Starting point is 00:29:11 I'm very interested to see how that cut goes. That is he's not a small man just proportionate. got a lot going on there. I don't know. Of course not. Be very interested. You did raise something that I didn't even think about, but honestly probably means I should reflexively just bet on Joaquin Buckley. Jake Matthews made Andre Fiala look so bad that I very briefly was like, I think
Starting point is 00:29:33 Jake Matthews might be a top ten fighter. I thought Jake Matthews was the guy I bet him confidently. Against Symbolsburger? Oh, yeah. Yeah, I remember we were both there. And we were both so wrong. The rolls were reversed. I was on Jake Matthews against Fiala.
Starting point is 00:29:50 And I was like, is Jake Matthews the greatest striker in UFC history? He looked so good. Then the rolls got reversed against Simulzberger. And yeah. And then, dude, the Solikov fight too, like he looks better in the first round. And then Salikov, as the fight goes on, just absolutely pours that on him. Now, here's the thing. Joachim Buckley, last time out, he did get caught by Chris Curtis.
Starting point is 00:30:17 He was looking great until he wasn't. He was putting on the volume. He was putting on a great pace on Chris Curtis. And then he got caught and he got put out. There's a world where that happens here. You have to know that going into it. Because Andre Fiala, like you mentioned, he is a fun fighter. He does have power and he's down to get in there in brawl.
Starting point is 00:30:36 There is a world where that happens, but I just, I couldn't back him after his last two performances. See, this is why we need to do this, Connor, because this is exactly the experiment. and I was looking for it. We've talked myself into a bet. I'm going to take Buckley by K.O. It's plus 120 right now. And I mean, we've, I mean, we've been kind of talking about it. When Andre Fiala loses, it's, it tends to be getting his lights shut off.
Starting point is 00:31:02 And if there's a dude who can shut off lights, it's walking Buckley. 11 of his 15 career wins have been by knockout. And he doesn't, like, it's not just getting his light shut off. He is, like, getting it poured on. Like, he is, like, taking a beating. and then he gets put out. At least that's how the last two fights have gone. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:22 And I just, honestly, I just got to pay him back for the Jake Matthews thing. I ranked Jake Matthews in the MMA fight global rankings. I had that man as like number 11 or something. I thought Jake Matthews, listen, you want me to play the whole scenario for you? I remember that card vividly. UFC 275. I was in Italy at the time. Heart of Florence watching it on my iPad at 6.45 a.m., got up, started drinking for the card at like 6, 6.45 in the morning, some champagne, had the bet on Jake Matthews, cashed it. I was riding the buzz of being in Italy, of the champagne, of everything going on. And I was like, Jake Matthews is unbelievable. That is the coolest guy I've ever seen. Has anyone ever been in a flow state like that before? And I carried that.
Starting point is 00:32:12 thought process for the next six months until he fought Matt Semmelsberger, and I sprinted to the window to bet on him there. And then he just got murdered. Uh, tough times. All right, you've talked me into it. Buckley by K.O. Love to add bets. All right, let's keep it rolling. Last fight on the main card, lightweight bout. Michael Johnson is back. Diego Ferreira is really back. And that is who will be meeting in the Octagon on Saturday. Ferreira minus 155. Johnson coming back plus. 135. Any thoughts on this fight? So again, this is, I have watched zero tape. So this is strictly off my recollections of these two guys. This feels like I might be interested in Michael Johnson here. Oh, might be a little interested in a little MJ. So if I'm not mistaken, were you on Michael Johnson
Starting point is 00:33:08 against Mark D. E. Casey. I was on Michael Johnson against Mark Diocese. That was a great bet. I was on Mark D.C.C. I felt so good watching that. The first round in particular was like, hell yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:20 He looked fantastic. Unbelievable. He stuffed all six of D.A.C.'s Take down attempts en route to a unanimous decision victory, if I'm not mistaken. That is correct. And D.
Starting point is 00:33:32 D. Casey was on a little bit of a heater going into that. I'm pretty sure I parlayed him up. I'm pretty sure he was like a minus 300 or something. Now, Diego Ferreira, he's coming back off of almost the two-year layoff. Shockingly, he is the older fighter in this fight. I don't know why when I first saw the matchup, I was like, yeah, Diego Ferreira is like 34. Diego Ferreira is not 34.
Starting point is 00:33:54 He is 38 years old. So Michael Johnson will be the younger guy in here. Not just the Dia Kese fight, he's got an 80% takedown defense. Very good. Over the course of a monster. sample size of this man's UFC career. And if it stays on the feet, now listen, if Ferreira comes in here and is getting takedowns,
Starting point is 00:34:17 he is more than likely going to win this fight. And he'll probably win it by finish. But if it stays standing, I think Michael Johnson is a very, very live underdog in this situation. I think he's going to be faster. I think he even has the potential to K.O. Ferreira. I mean, he's been K-Oed in his last two losses. Michael Johnson does have that power. Now the concern is
Starting point is 00:34:38 Michael Johnson is not the most consistent fighter in the world. Not at all. That is putting it lightly. We might not get the same Michael Johnson that was stuff and takedowns looking beautiful on the feet against Mark D. Casey. We might get a Michael Johnson that looks good
Starting point is 00:34:58 for a round and a half and then gets taken down and gets finished and you're just like, oh, I thought we were about to be up two-oh and now the fight's over. You got to know what you're going to know what you're getting into, betting on Michael Johnson. Certainly not. No such thing is a sure thing in betting in general, but certainly not when you're
Starting point is 00:35:16 betting on Michael Johnson. 39 have tried. Only 18 have succeeded. Only 18. This makes me feel so good and so much more confident because my thoughts, my sort of just reflex was like, Carlos Diego Fahara hasn't fought in two years, lost three in a row. He hasn't won in a life.
Starting point is 00:35:38 time. When was his last one was 20, 20 against Anthony Pettis. Like, that's a long time to be out of the cage. His sport moves ridiculously fast. It very, exactly. And Johnson's coming off, honestly, his best performance in years. He looked so good in that one. And he says the same things every fighter says after that, like, got my life together.
Starting point is 00:35:59 I'm ready to kind of make a last push here. And you take that with a grain of salt. But if the big knock is that Johnson is, mercurial, which is definitely true. He's facing a guy who lost a bunch and hasn't hasn't even fought lately. And I do think Johnson can probably
Starting point is 00:36:19 sort of, as my recollection goes, probably keep this fighting. I think he's got a lot more hand speed, which is going to be a big factor. And I think his boxing can just sort of carry the day. So I'm going to lock this bet in then at a plus one, three, five for Michael Johnson. And we're just stacking paper at this point.
Starting point is 00:36:37 funny. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves. I do like the idea of that. Here's another thing. Here's what I'm going to say. It's probably going to be pretty fun to cheer on Michael Johnson as an underdog because we know what we're getting into. Honestly, you know what? I'm just going to put out a disclaimer for everyone right now. Betting on this card, you kind of just got to know what you're getting into here. Yeah, very much. That's a great point. The weather's getting nice. Summer's right around the corner, maybe grill out, enjoy a nice evening, have the UFC on the background, pick up some cash, hopefully, on the way. But if it's a losing week, I will not be the least bit shocked. Yeah, I almost didn't, I almost came into this one. Like, I'm actually just not going
Starting point is 00:37:26 to bet on anything this week. That is not what we do here. That is not how we get down. So instead, we're finding, we're finding bets and we've already got three punched in. We're definitely finding bets. Let's keep it rolling. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo? Great idea. Feel the fun with all the latest slots in live casino games and with no wagering requirements.
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Starting point is 00:38:36 You covered. Marshals, we get the deals. You gift for good stuff. To the prelims we go, it is a lightweight bout Mahashate taking on Vyashlav Borshev, also known as Slava Claus, had to really slow things down there to make sure I got those names right. Right now, Slava Claus is minus 165 Mahashate coming back at plus 140. Over under, originally lined at two and a half.
Starting point is 00:39:06 Looks like on Draft King's Sportsbook has now moved to one and a half, which... Interesting. I personally like to see that because I took it at under two and a half. Minus 154 should still be on other books, though. To me, strikers delight. Some people say Mahashti has wrestling, but neither of these guys have ever even attempted a takedown in the UFC. So I'm not entirely sure why they would start here, other than if they watch tape on Slava Claus and they were like, if you wrestle this guy, you will win. It's just that simple. But I think they're going to stand and bang, and I think one man is going to fall. Both these dudes have serious power. Slava, five of his last six, wins are by K.O. Had that beautiful liver K.O. A few fights ago, Mahasate, four of his last six wins are by K.O. And we saw Mahasota put out Steve Garcia bad on that UFC 275 card we were just talking about. I think they
Starting point is 00:40:06 I think they throw. I think this is going to be one of the more fun fights on the card. I like that it's a featured prelim. And yeah, under two and a half is where I'm at. So I definitely think this is going to be fun. Fully agree with you there.
Starting point is 00:40:19 I will also note that wrestling is not just a way to beat Slava Clause, but also Mahashate. So, you know, as Afa Garcia did effectively. So if either of these dudes comes out as D1 versions of themselves,
Starting point is 00:40:34 might actually be a good tactic. a plan, but I don't think we're going to get that. I agree with the striking thing. I don't have a bet here or even really a lean just because I'm not super certain which way it goes. My question for you is, are you at all concerned? Because I, too, was looking at sort of the over-under thing. Please tell me. Are you at all concerned that neither of these dudes has ever been finished? So, yes, they are finishers par excellence, but they have both proven to be pretty durable during their careers. And so maybe this is just a striking affair where neither dude can get the other one out of
Starting point is 00:41:09 there. Oh, man. You're saying like it just turns into a slobber knocker? Yeah. They're just too tough for a finish to come, despite the fact that they're both very violent men in their own right. Yeah, I mean, it's always a concern. I just lost the parley and my parley pals pick on the Johnny Walker, Anthony.
Starting point is 00:41:32 He's true. It's true. It's true. Honestly, in this game, almost nothing would shock me. Nothing would shock me. Except for Jailton losing. I'd be shocked if Jailton loses at this point. That would shock me.
Starting point is 00:41:46 I mean, his ground game at heavyweight? Can we talk about how excited I was when the first take down got stuffed? I was like, oh my God, yes. Can we talk about how quickly he would? Yes. Can we talk about how quickly? For nothing. the patience that he uses, the techniques that he uses, the dynamicness of like, all right,
Starting point is 00:42:12 I'll just pound you out. And then when you're like, no, I don't want to finish that way, he's like, okay, I'll just choke you out then. And he's done it on multiple occasions. Listen, I don't want to took my own home, but I'm pretty sure last week I told you how the fight was going to go. It was like I was, it wasn't hard to predict. I'm not going to pat myself on the back too hard.
Starting point is 00:42:30 It wasn't hard to predict. As long as you acknowledge that. It wasn't that hard to predict. But I said, come out, they're going to stand, look at each other for a little bit. It's going to be kind of dicey, take down. He's going to work his way. He's going to go for the ground and pound. Rosen's strike's going to be like, no, no, no, no.
Starting point is 00:42:46 And he's going to try and move, put himself in a bad position, choked out, fights over round one. Could have just bet on that. Could have just said sub round one, called it a day, but let's make stupid parlay is why don't win. But, you know, you. You mostly got all your bets with him. So I think you can just chalk him up as a full win. Listen, Jailton has made me more than enough money.
Starting point is 00:43:10 I should have just been going all in on Jailton Al-Meda all this time instead of freaking Valentina Shivchenko. I'd be rolling in cash at this moment in time. Well, breaking news quickly here on the program that won't be breaking news by the time. You hear this because this is a recorded podcast. The boss, Dana White, is hopping on Instagram Live to break some news in just 30 short minutes. I wonder if it's going to be better than all the fight announcements and the only new one being the Tom Aspinall fight, which I was pretty excited for it because our boy Tommy Aspinall back in the cage is big time stuff. I am very much willing to bet that this one, obviously this will come out later, so I'm staking my claim here.
Starting point is 00:44:07 I bet we get John Jones-Stepe announced. Whoa! That's a big claim to me. They got to bounce back from the Francis announcement. Like, why else is Dana jumping on to make an announcement on a Tuesday? Usually this happens on like a Friday. All right. I'm actually, I'm actually like. They're trying to bounce back.
Starting point is 00:44:27 would be a power play by the UFC to, man. Oh, my God. If that's what they did, if they're just like, hey, congrats on signing with the PFL. Stipe versus John Jones at XYZ, blah, blah, blah. The Francis News is an old memory at this point, especially because he's in fighting until mid-20204. That would be crazy. Let me throw one out there to you. They call off the Sean Strickland Magamette fight.
Starting point is 00:44:57 Who's even fighting again? Sean Strickland. Sean Strickland is fighting canineer? No. Is that right? No, he already fought can in here. He's fighting the incredibly random opponent. I don't remember who it is.
Starting point is 00:45:14 I got it right here. Don't you worry. Yes, Avis Magamatov. That's right. There you go. Call it off. Izzy Strickland, UFC, 291. If you're going to call off a fight, you should call off Whitaker Duplice and do Izzy Duplice.
Starting point is 00:45:35 Okay. That's the fight, man. So I would be down for that to be the answer. Call off Whitaker Duplice. Give Izzy DDP. Give Whitaker Strickland. I mean, sure. I think that would actually be great.
Starting point is 00:45:54 But yeah, I think, like, I actually really do think this is going to be John Steepay that Dana woke up, saw this news. got on the horn and was like steep a time to go. Let's make this happen. Or I could believe that it's an official date for Connor Chandler. Ooh, okay. I like that. It's got to be a big announcement because this to me seems very clearly being done to take some of the shine away from the Francis thing.
Starting point is 00:46:26 Like that kind of just... Oh, there's no doubt. At the end of the day, this is what... But it needs to be something, too. Like, it needs to be something. Yeah. It doesn't. And, like, Aljo versus Sean O'Malley is just not it.
Starting point is 00:46:40 Like, that's not going to be the fight that's like, oh, let's stop talking about Francis getting all these things. I saw some report. I have no idea if there's any truth to it. Dustin Pori, Justin Gaichi at UFC 291, even if it's that, I would be like. I mean, that fight's awesome. But no, yeah. You got to have a headline grabber. and the only one that really jumps out to me
Starting point is 00:47:01 that would do it would be John Steepay and I know that that's the fight that they've been working on feels like this is the sort of thing which is just like hey we need to get this over the line right now what are the numbers yes go date live push it I'm excited now we'll be off the air by the time that happens
Starting point is 00:47:21 that will be interesting Mahashate though Slava Claus back to the real main event of the weekend under two and a half i mean i wish you the best i will have no action on this one thank you sir and as they both go bloody and damaged to over two and a half minutes of the third round be thinking of me fondly let's keep it rolling to a women's strawweight bout carolina cavalcavich taking on finessa damopolis right now carolina slight favorite you got anything here I know you are a Cavalkevich supporter.
Starting point is 00:48:01 I have been backing her a lot, but this one I kind of, again, no bet, sort of got the vibes just from the universe that Vanessa Demopoulos, this might be her time to shine. Don't honestly really know why looking at the fight kind of at the stats. Doesn't seem like that's true. Kovalcavich always has been a pretty good defensive wrestler. Not a great one, but like solid. Demobos is a terrible wrestler, and she's not. very good striker. She can grapple. If she can get you down, she can make some things happen.
Starting point is 00:48:32 But Kovo Kavich should be able to kind of outpoint her on the feet and has even shown like a pretty proactive wrestling and grappling game herself lately. So like my head says that Kovalkavich should win this. And maybe my head will win out if I watch some more tape and I'll back her like I have the last two times. But my guts is kind of just saying Demopolis is going to do the thing. All right. Best of luck.
Starting point is 00:48:56 I have nothing on this. So I would say you got nothing on it. It was not. It's fair. I was not too interested in playing it. Though if I was going to play it, I think I would go Kovakov. Okay. I'm going to dive into Tatemore and we'll see which of these two went out.
Starting point is 00:49:11 But right now, no bet. Next up, Welterway bout. Orion So say, Galaxy, taking on Gilbert Urbina, the return of Gilbert Urbina. Right now you can have Sose 4 minus 1, 6. Is that what I'm saying here? Minus 120. Gilbertabina coming back plus 100. Sorry, I excellently closed on my draft king's tab.
Starting point is 00:49:37 Yes, I'm on Gilbert Urbina at Plus Money. So I like the fact. Actually, don't mind the fact that he's taken almost two years off because he's still young. He's only 27. He's moving back down to welterweight, which I like if the cut goes properly, similar to what...
Starting point is 00:49:57 He's got great. size for Walterweight. Similar to Joaquin Buckley. He will have great size for Walterweight if the cut goes well. Now, one thing is, there's no real way to tell what's going on with Urbina
Starting point is 00:50:10 because from my research, he's off all social medias. Which either maybe that's like a really good thing. It's just like, I'm just focusing on the fight game, or he's just completely off the grid and he's just taking the fight to take the fight.
Starting point is 00:50:25 A little bit of an unknown, but I think if he comes to the key, Cage, he has a good cut, and he has been working on his game since, what, two years ago, I think he's going to have a good showing. And against the guy that doesn't have a great gas thing, has not impressed me much at all. I mean, the Blood Diamond fight, like, that's what I'm saying. It's Blood Diamond. I think Urbina can cash at Plus Money for me.
Starting point is 00:50:52 I would like to also just mention a man who I realized on this fight as I was. taking a cursory look through. There's very little to do with this, but every once in a while we get down one of these rabbit holes, and I want to take us down this one. Orion Koski, if you look at his record, just very briefly on topology,
Starting point is 00:51:10 you'll notice one over Daniel McWilliams. Great name. With a, it's a very strong name, a robust 18 and 43 resume. That, uh, not good,
Starting point is 00:51:23 but I'd really just want to call attention to, to Mr. McWilliams for two. things. One, Kosky beat him immediately after McWilliams lost to Lewis Koski, who I'm just going to assume is related to him. I think that's almost positive. Yeah, it is. A month after his brother, cousin, whatever it is, beat him. Orion was like, I also need to beat this man, who, the real selling point of his resume to me is that he, He also has losses to Edmund and Leon Chabasian.
Starting point is 00:52:01 So it's just fantastic what we've got going on with this gentleman. A huge fan of what I'm seeing here from Mr. McWilliams. And I sort of think that I should reflexively bet against Koski just for having McWilliams on his resume. All right. We having some technical difficulties here from the New York studio offices. If you can tell a difference in my audio quality, it's because I'm now on a laptop rather than, you know, state-of-the-art microphone here.
Starting point is 00:52:33 You were saying something about the Sose brothers before everything went to shit here on No Bet's Barre. Oh, yeah. I was just saying that Daniel McWilliams, Orion Sosei was like, I just watched my brother, Lewis, beat him. I should beat him one month later. And not long before that,
Starting point is 00:52:53 Mr. McWilliams lost to both. Edmund and Leon Shabasian, which means I think I'm sort of duty-bound to put together a parlay of fading people who have beaten Daniel McWilliams in betting the opposite of Sosei and Shabazian. I may be forced into that. So we'll see. Wow. Yeah, I mean, it's a this is a tough time for Daniel McWilliams, looking over this record. I mean, he was just in there. Whoa. He was just, he's been in there in 2023, took a fight on March 18th against Gabriel
Starting point is 00:53:32 Pacheco Dolce to fall to 18 and 15. He lost in case you were wondering. First round submission and then gets right back in there at Bear River FC 17. Just a week later against Austin Mitchell. He also lost that. He is on a
Starting point is 00:53:48 who. It's a lot of fights. It's a lot of fights. 13 straight losses lost all of them via submission. Guy does not get paid by the hour. In 70 pro fights, he has been to two decisions.
Starting point is 00:54:04 I would say lost zero decisions in his career. So Daniel McWilliam is the kind of guy we want. You can bank on him getting his hand raised. Daniel the animal on Instagram, MMA Jiu Jitsu, and
Starting point is 00:54:19 cosplay. Looks like he does a great witcher cosplay. Oh, look at you diving deep. That's why they pay you the big bucks That kind of research Is TikTok The Witcher geralt Yeah
Starting point is 00:54:32 Okay Did you were you Do you ever play the Witcher video games I didn't know But it looks like It looks like Daniel the animal Is very much into them I now have to look this up
Starting point is 00:54:44 Because the Witcher 3 is An unbelievably good video game And the show was like Six days ago He posted a picture from his I mean dude's in great shape from his jiu-jitsu gym. Dude is in great shape.
Starting point is 00:54:58 He said, I put in work tonight. Come by any time if you want to test your skills against mine. I mean, look, I hope all the best for you, Daniel, the animal. Let's close this out before you have more technical difficulties. He's just getting paid to show up to lose, right? I mean, that's... I mean, this appears to be an expectation of that. But every once in a while, you know, the generals win every once in a while.
Starting point is 00:55:21 Exactly. Four fights to go. I'm on Gilbert Urbina there. Let's keep it rolling. heavyweight bout alir latifi taking on rodrigo nassimento uh right now nasamento minus 190 alir latifi alir no neck natifi coming back at plus 160 uh i know you're going to be on the over here don't mind that how do you feel i feel okay uh four of his last five for latifi gone to decision including all three a heavyweight but you said the most important thing no neck
Starting point is 00:55:54 Latifi because Nassimento man wants to be winning by sub. I don't remember the exact number but it's like 80% of his wins have come by submission. How does one submit a man with no neck and with arms that are tree trucks? I don't think it can be done.
Starting point is 00:56:11 I think that I feel like I've got a decent shot at hitting the over. Don't love that it's over two and a half mind you and for only for minus 110 or whatever it's at but we continue to ride with heavyweight over as always. Any side on this one? No side on this one.
Starting point is 00:56:27 Very low-level heavy-weight fight. Thought about playing Nassimento, and then I was like, do I really want to do that? Do I really want to get involved? I've already got enough. I've already got enough sketchy underdogs this week. You definitely don't. I don't need to add a sketchy favorite.
Starting point is 00:56:41 You don't. And like you, I'm trying to learn a lesson from you. I don't want to be doubling up. I've already got action on this fight. What I don't want is the low-level heavyweight fight to put me down two units early in the card, because then you're just climbing out of them. the whole. Doubling up is never any good, man, and especially not on this card. I'm looking over
Starting point is 00:56:59 my bets. I mean, if I won a majority of these, I wouldn't be surprised if I lost them all. I don't think I'd be surprised either. Well, that is oozing confidence as we head into the weekend. I mean, this is UFC Apex 73. I mean, what are we really expecting from this? The Apex. Let's keep it rolling nonetheless. Just three more fights. to get into. We'll give you our thoughts lightweight about Chase Hooper taking on Nick Fioreau. Chase Hooper coming off a bad knockout loss to Steve Garcia, Nick Fioro. He is also O'1 in the UFC. Right now, you can have Fioro minus 140, Chase Hooper plus 120. This has been hotly debated in the Twitter streets this week. Thought about playing Chase Hooper. And I thought
Starting point is 00:57:50 about playing Nick Fior-O. Okay. Then I thought about playing Chase Hooper again because he got up to like plus 125. And then I said, I'm just going to stay away. Oh, I'm so proud of you. That is growth and that is wise and smart and very proud of you. I think that's the right answer.
Starting point is 00:58:10 I briefly wanted, not wanted it. I briefly look at this and said, oh, Chase Hooper, I don't ever want to back him. But like, this might be where he's an underdog making the movie. This feels like a by-low spot if I'm making totally on us on Chase. Because like everyone that I see taking Nick Fier-Roe is just like gotta fade chase, he's fucking dog shit.
Starting point is 00:58:29 Excuse my language, but you know how it gets on the old Twitter sphere. Yeah, I mean, it just feels like everyone's looking to fade him after he got starched in the first round. Yeah, it, firm agree.
Starting point is 00:58:40 And so like could be a by-low spot, but I think ultimately, I'm going to watch tape, see if I feel stronger about it. But I think this feels like one of those fights where, Yeah, maybe I'm giving up a little bit of value by not betting Chase Hooper, but I don't think come Sunday morning that I will regret not having action on this. Here's what I want to ask you.
Starting point is 00:59:00 Do you want to take the man that just got starched in less than two minutes by Steve Garcia? Or do you want to take the man that fought Jay Ellis twice in his seven-fight career? That, man, this is, I forgot the name. Nick Fiore did that, man. We're just having a day for some of the tapology. I love the deep time on tapology. If you need to go back, first fight of his, first professional fight of his career,
Starting point is 00:59:29 he takes on Jay Ellis, finishes him with a rear naked choke in 50 seconds. The fact that it took him less than a minute to even get into a position to rear naked choke him is insane. That's in January of 2020. You know, pandemic hit. Things happen. He refines the game a little bit.
Starting point is 00:59:46 Comes back. Jay Ellis again in his next. fight this time he knocks him out in less than 90 seconds uh and we're off to a two and oh start i mean man if you look at his you know what i need rome mickle who's four and nine tough tough run i need a jellis versus danny mcwilliams give me that contest and put it on pay-per-view or do we put it on fight circus one of them has to win somebody's somebody has to get a w i'd watch that all day you make a great point again I do think this is maybe a by low spot on hooper I also just am not sure that I'm going to be sad if I don't bet this fight come Sunday
Starting point is 01:00:30 like it's hard for me to imagine waking up Sunday chase hooper winning and being like what an idiot I totally should have had a bet down there I mean dude Nick Fero has beat some absolutely terrible competition it's not good he got 3027 by rebecca if I'm not mistaken he's tough He is tough, but yeah, man, I, I just pass. We could just pass. Let's pass. Aline Chase Hooper. Let's go to the next fight because this just is so perfect for this card.
Starting point is 01:01:06 It's a women's flyway bout, Victoria Leonardo, taking on Natalia Silva. And right now on Draft King's sports book, Natalia Silva is a minus 800, but there's a few books out there that you can get her for minus 1,000. Sounds like value to me then. Yes, you heard me correctly. The 14 and 5 women's flyweight is a bigger favorite than Bo Nickel versus Trashon Gore in just under two months. I don't know if this is minus 1,000 territory, but I do think Natalia Silva is going to win and she's going to win decisively here. Yeah, I agree.
Starting point is 01:01:49 There's not a huge breakdown here. When you get a favorite of this big, there's a reason. I had the fleetingest of thoughts when I looked at this and said, I'm not sure Natalia Silva should be this big a favorite over anyone. And then I drove that thought out of my head because there's just no need to burn money taking shots on Victoria Leonardo at this moment. So what I did do is I did parlay up Natalia Silva when she was my. minus 600. Okay.
Starting point is 01:02:22 She opened a minus 300. I can't believe she's down to a minus 1,000. Maybe someone knows something. Whoever got in on that minus 300, good for you. Oh, great for you. Great work. That is good work by you. What I did, I parlayed up the minus 600.
Starting point is 01:02:35 Katie Taylor fight goes to a decision minus 700. Okay. Like that. The Devin Haney fight goes to a decision minus 450. Okay. Just a non-violence parlay? Non-violence. Well, actually.
Starting point is 01:02:48 Well, it has to inflict violence because I actually am on fight does not go to a decision there. She's minus 1,000 for a reason. I think she's just better everywhere. Leonardo is meh. Natalia Silva, eight straight wins. Eight of her last nine. She has won by finish. Leonardo has been finished in all four of her losses.
Starting point is 01:03:07 I think this holds the same fate. I was going to play Natalia Silva inside the distance, but it was like minus 150. And fight doesn't go to a decision was minus 155. So I was like, yeah, might as well. Dan appeals. Might as well. So that is what I'm on. Boom, good luck.
Starting point is 01:03:23 And that brings us to our final fight. To close out, quite possibly, the worst episode of No Betz Bard in the show's history. I think it actually may be. It definitely is. Given the technical problems. I feel like our brains are in two different places. It's a terrible card. We're on a long string of consecutive cards.
Starting point is 01:03:44 Most of the bad. And let's finish it off. Welter Wapewit, Takashi Sato, taking on Thimba Garimba. Great name. I don't think this is a UFC fight. But it's happening on a UFC card. That's the best way to describe it. Do we think Takashi Sato comes in here and reserves himself to not getting submitted again like we saw against Gunner Nelson about 14 months ago at UFC London?
Starting point is 01:04:14 That was the most frustrating bet, maybe, of my whole life. That's missions. Or does he actually try and win the fight? What will leave that answer up to you? I'm going to just say that yes, that he tries to play defense the whole time. I don't think he wants to get submitted. That seems to not be something he's into since Miguel Baezza and below Muhammad and whoever the various people who did it to him on the regional circuit.
Starting point is 01:04:39 I don't know. I'm not betting this one. So if you've got something, feel free. I was going to say, I'll tell you what I am going to do here is not bet it. Coin flip odds. and that's it. Sorry, I just got distracted because I just jumped into the UFC live on Instagram, and Dana White was like,
Starting point is 01:05:02 thanks so much, have a good night. Oh, boom. I missed it. We got Justin Borey versus Gaghi? I don't know. Hold on. Let's see what we got here. It looks like we may have a little something, something.
Starting point is 01:05:18 Ooh, good. UFC is returning to Utah for UFC 2991, July 21, July, We already knew that. Porier versus Gaecchi for the vacant BMF title. I don't mind that. I mean... I don't mind that. That's fun. I agree.
Starting point is 01:05:36 I think that that's a sick one. Oh, we did get Sterling O'Malley headlining 2.92 August 19th. That's a quick turnaround from our boy Sterling. It is. And the aforementioned Wiley Zhang, Amanda Limosh is the co-main event. Are you kidding me? For real. Apparently, that's what.
Starting point is 01:05:54 what's going on. In the limo she's getting the title shot. Man, I like this. I don't hate the, let me say, I don't hate the vacant BMF thing. The problem is, shit, what? Jan Blockowicz versus Alex Pereira, too?
Starting point is 01:06:11 Oh, a 205, okay. That's a very interesting, Icram Alaskarov. What? Tony Ferguson, Bobby Green. Is this real? It's looking like a good card. That'll be fun.
Starting point is 01:06:23 Yo, I'm down with this. this. Michael Keyesah, Kevin Holland is a fun one too. A bunch of fun fights. Yo, I'm super down with this. Yeah, not, again, the BMF title, what does that even mean since the last one wasn't defended? So how is it vacant? If it was never defended, is it really a title or was it just an ornamental piece for Mosphidal? Listen, I'm not getting into those platitudes.
Starting point is 01:06:50 Portia Gage 2 is also five rounds going to be the best thing. can't hate any of the announcements I still don't think this has the same juice that they probably would have been hoping for as a response to the Francis but you know it is what it is something to talk about instead of this weekend's card and
Starting point is 01:07:08 Thimba Garimbo Oh yeah I forgot we were even talking about Thimba Garumbo. Yeah so I'm also on Katie Taylor in boxing on Katie Taylor Dern by submission Gilbert Urbina
Starting point is 01:07:23 Sylva Leonardo doesn't go to a decision, Michael Johnson, Emily Ducote, Mahasate, Boar Chef under two and a half, Joaquin Buckley, Katie Taylor, and then that Natalia Silva parley. Yeah, those are my plays for the weekend. Boom. I'm going to be on Loopy, Buckley by K.O. Johnson, Latifian Asimito, into over two and a half. And I may end up, and when I say I may, it seems very likely that I'm going to end up putting together the anti-Dan McWilliams Parlay.
Starting point is 01:07:53 but that's such a good gimmick. I love gimmicks. Gimmicks are my favorite because then I don't have to really think. I can just let the God decide. So hopefully they'll be in my favor. Love it. Love it, love it, love it. That's it.
Starting point is 01:08:09 We're off next week. We're off next week. Worst episode of No Bet's Bard and No Bet's Bard history in the books. Hopefully we'll provide you with some winning bets though. And we'll be back. Cut a car off first. It's main event. Amir al-a-Bahs.
Starting point is 01:08:24 I'm sorry. Is that at 125 pounds? That's a fly weight. That'll be exciting. Love those. Fly-weight main event. That's that. Talk to you in two weeks.
Starting point is 01:08:41 Enjoy the breath. Love y'all. The Vox Media Podcast Network.

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