MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Marlon Vera Keep It Rolling Over Dominick Cruz At UFC San Diego? | Plus Flyweight Unders Never Lose

Episode Date: August 10, 2022

The No Bets Barred boys are back this week with a full breakdown of UFC San Diego — and though it's yet another Fight Night event lacking big names, there are certainly some big bets to be made. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew have you covered in that regard, with both men making wagers on the main event, and a number of undercard bouts. Jed even places a wager "for science" on one prelim bout, just to spice things up. Plus, Conner and Jed round out the show with some PFL and Bellator action as well! Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster, The Downloaded.

It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. You know, we are back. It is another episode of No Bet's Bar, this time for UFC. San Diego.

It is Marlon Chito Vera going up against Dominic Cruz in the main event. Jed. How we doing? doing, dude, 10 out of 10 finishes on this last card. I mean, I slandered it seven ways to Sunday on the show last week, but it ended up delivering. It's not slander. The card was bad, and you're never going to change my mind on that. Someone hit me up on Twitter, and I admitted to dogging it, and someone was like, why would you dog this card? Like, the main and comain were fire on paper. You got the tough finale, the storyline of Usman's

brother. That's why I would dog the card. Terrence T. Rex McKinney is always, you know, an incredibly exciting fighter. And I almost responded and I was like, nah, I just don't really care enough. But it's just like, dude, it's a 10-fight card in the apex in between two fight nights and two pay-per-views. So that's a big thing, though. Like, one, I dog this card. I'll still dog this card and just speak. I'm just speaking the truth.

and that's all it is, and I'm not ashamed about it. Because here's the deal. Like, one, the card got way better by only being 10 fights, and I don't think people are recognizing that enough. 10 fights is like a really digestible number. You get up to 12. It's just a lot of fights, especially because the other part of the card having all these great finishes

is the people are just glossing over, even though in the moment everyone was talking about it, the pacing was abhorrent, because they were getting all these first round finishes so it was infinite commercials like that's just how it goes but my main point here is I thought there'd be a lot of finishes

I predicted mostly early finishes in my topology and that turned out to be pretty correct but it doesn't change the fact that none of this mattered and that's why the card isn't fun like the main event I dogged the most and that ended up being a lot more fun and so if you want to come at me for that I will say sure hand up

I called Tiago Santos incredibly boring. And to my credit, he tried to be really boring. Jamal Hill just didn't allow him to be boring because Tiago Santos turned into D1 Santos and it wasn't going to be all that fun. But Jamal Hill just is really fun. But I'll even take a half an L on that one because that fight definitely exceeded my expectations. We talked about the Komen being awesome. Everybody in the world agreed that the Komen was awesome and it was.

but you none of the rest of that mattered and none of the rest of it you're not going to remember a single thing that happened on that card a month and a half from now like you're just not even though congrats to the tough winners both of the you know both of the betting underdogs coming through both of especially when both of the betting underdogs are probably the better prospects so you're getting good outcomes there good finishes good performances i'm not saying the people who fought didn't have good performances but like What I'm saying is I don't care, and neither do you. The people who are coming at us are just trying to win some fantasy points about being a true fan. I have been watching this sport for damn near 20 years. Like, I just know, I know that I don't give two toots about Sam Alvey's ninth loss in a row, or Corey McKenna Miranda Granger. These just aren't fights that are substantively important and certainly not. you know if you have one of those on a fight card or two that's fine but when the fight card is

mostly them i'm just never going to pretend that that card's good if you have nothing else to do on a saturday fine but it don't this is not appointment viewing and it never was yeah yeah i got the casual call it a few times i was like yeah yeah um uh how about our guy jeff neal hands of steel getting it done i took them by decision at plus 500 that one hurt to watch uh luke go down So close. Yeah. So close. That was tough.

I just had Jeff Neal straight, so it helped me. I showed up. I got greedy. You ask why? Sente Luque had never been knocked out before. That is why I took it. He had never been. That's very true, and there's justification.

But he'd also been getting hurt a lot more in his recent run of fights. And I, even though Jeff Neue had not a huge finisher, I would have scared me. His hands are of steel, and you didn't take that into account. Duke can walk through fire, though, Lucay. Like, I thought he was done in the first round, if I'm going to be honest with you. Oh, yeah, I thought that the second round, his comeback in the second round was sensational. Just in part, I thought some of it was due to Jeff Neal, just being real dumb. But he, I thought he was turning the tide in the second round, then the third round, he got clipped, and then that was the end of it, basically.

Tiago Santos, you mentioned him being a boring fighter. you know, he turned into D1 Santos and everything. Whether he's boring or not, I have made a habit of betting against him in some regard. He is a stressful fighter to watch against Magamette-on-Khaliev. Like, he made it stressful. He heard him against Johnny Walker. He won the fight, and it was just a staring contest.

I didn't go the distance to finish a parley there. And then Jamal Hill, he was up two to one on two of the judge's scorecards going into the fourth round there. Like, it's just like in like the middle of the second round, I was like, wow, I forgot every single time I bet against Tiago Santos. While I might win most of them, it's still just such a stressful affair. Oh, you should text me. I would have told you not to worry at all because here's the last thing I really cared to say or any big thought I have. Everybody came out and, you know, applauded Tiago Santos for a smart game plan.

Game plan was horrifically bad. Oh, wow. I'm just sorry it is. Like in a three-round fight, that game plan is good because... Three-round fight, he wins. In a three-round fight, he wins. You can soak up time a lot more effectively. But Tiago Santos is not a wrestler.

And, like, I think this all the time about fighters. Like, you just can't... You can't change who you are. You got to dance with the girl who brought you, and the girl who brought Teago Santos to the show and got him to a title fight is he hits really hard. He's got pretty good timing, especially on the counter. And he terrifies people because of those two things.

and so he can get his shots off when he's looking to get them off. Turning into a wrestler like, yes, I totally agree that it caught Jamal Hill off guard and he had some success with it. But the downside is exactly what happened. He gassed himself out because anyone who's wrestled can tell you it is much more difficult to wrestle offensively than defensively is much more draining. And Santos isn't, he's not Islamokachev. Scoring those takedowns did not put him into dominant winning position. he scored takedowns, Jamal Hill just stood up.

He was just like, all right, cool, I'm going to push your head down, I'm going to stand back up, do it again. Jamal Hill got tired. Jarvis Santos got way more tired. And so that's where the TKO essentially in the fourth round came from. Santos just sort of couldn't stand up anymore because he was exhausted. It was an awful game plan as far as I'm concerned. And as soon as he started doing it and then stuck with it,

I would have been like, dude, you're fine. because they're talking about Jamal Hill and not looking like looking a little winded Tiago Santos was tough tough hang so I thought you were safe the whole time Wow I mean it's tough to say I had Hill finishing two parles and fight Doesn't go the distance finishing a third

So yeah just a lot of exposure on that fight And you know your mind tends to wonder When you've got a lot going on in there Anyway that was UFC Apex 59 Hill versus Santos tough finale. He's a card that will go down in the history of UFC 10 for 10 on the finishes. Let's move on to UFC San Diego. Love that this card is in San Diego. Chill vibes. Beach. Probably going to watch Anchorman on Friday night to just mentally prep myself for San Diego.

Just really get in my San Diego zone. I'm looking forward to that. Have you been to San Diego? No. Have you? Oh, I have. It is, I used to have a really good friend who lived there, and I've just been a few times. And it is, if I were to live on the West Coast, which I may at some point in my future, that would be, I think San Diego is the spot. I love San Diego. I'm glad you say that because of the, you know, massive amount of people that I know that have visited San Diego, I don't think I've ever heard one person talk bad about it.

No, it's actually physically impossible to not fall in love with San Diego when you're there. It's just like, L.A. is dope. I love L.A. too, but L.A. is a lot. There's a lot going on with L.A. A ton of traffic, just a ton of people. But there's a lot of cool stuff about it. San Diego is just like all of the best parts of living in California, essentially, unless you're like a skier. But who's a skier?

Who likes snow? Not me. I'm from the south. Not a snow guy. Yeah, snow. I don't love it. I don't hate it. I'm, you know, having moved up north, I'm kind of indifferent on it. It can be pretty sometimes.

It can also be a gigantic hassle to your life sometimes as well. It's just the worst. Yeah, I wish I was going on this card. That'd be fire weekend. Get some, you know, San Diego living doing. I was trying to think of something you would get out there at breakfast burrito. Breakfast burrito, fish tacos, both are awesome. Oh, fish tacos, fire.

I mean, actually, someone told me that last week. I was eating fish tacos with Mysterious Frank. And I was like, wow, these are amazing. He's like, you know where they're really amazing? San Diego. We should go to the UFC San Diego card. They really are. I was like, nah, I don't have the financial, you know, resources to do that right now.

All right, enough about San Diego, enough about fish tacos and breakfast burritos. Let's get into it. The main event of the evening. It is a men's bantam weight bout. You have Marlon Vera going up against Dominique Cruz. Marlon Vera, minus 225, dominant Cruz coming back at plus 190. Fight goes the distance, minus 190. Fight does not go.

Plus 140. I am hyped for this fight, dude. Cheeto is obviously a fan favorite, and I feel like that's why this line is continuing to get bigger and bigger. Right now, Cruz plus 190 on Draft Kings. Average odds, according to best fight odds, plus 181. If he closes at that, that would be the biggest underline. underdog he's ever been during his fights in the UFC against O'Huto, his average odds were plus

176. A couple of WEC fights, he was obviously over plus 200 that was really early on in his career. So yeah, this could be one of the biggest times he's been doubted by Vegas, which is just crazy to think about. It is especially because he thrives when Vegas doubts him. Four and two is an underdog. Love that. And one of those losses was back in the WEC days.

So just a lifetime ago. So four and one in a lot of respects as an underdog. That's a man cashes some dog tickets. I was like going back through, like looking at some of the lines and stuff. Like when he fought against Joseph Benavides the first time, he was like a plus 235. When he fought against Brian Bowles, he was like a plus 275. and won both of those convincingly. I just wish I was around for those days,

cashing tickets on The Dominator. For me, I don't know. I hate that name, by the way. Oh, the Dominator? Wow. It's the worst Nick. Dominant Cruz is right there. Like, not enough fighters do the pre-name, fight nickname.

Oh, you're saying Dominant Cruz. Dominic Cruz. Like, that is it. Like, that's the name. The Dominator is a very stupid name that's playing off, like dominant dominant cruise is so much better. I've been saying this for 10 years. It is so much better.

My one rebuttal to that, it does kind of sound like you're just saying Dominic, Dominic Cruz. No, dominant, Dominic Cruz. It's fine. You could make it off. The dominator is also just a really stupid name. That time it sounded like you said,

dominant, dominant Cruz. Yeah, dominant, Dominic Cruz is exactly what I said. See, that time you put the hard K in there. That time you said dominant, Dominic. Cruz. Well, then maybe that's what you got to do. Maybe you need the hard K there. All I know is the Dominator is a really stupid nickname. If we're going to have Bruce do that, we're going to have to, he's going to have to hit the Hart K at the end. We, we could talk to him. Hard T, too, Hard T, Hard T, Dominic, Cruz. And that's okay, because the main point outside of Dominant being

a much better name is the Dominator is just really stupid. Like it's just a really stupid. Nobody he walks around, I was like, so the Dominator, how you doing? Like, it's just really, really dumb name. Really dumb name. Especially when it's Dominic Cruz. Yeah. Like, he's like a very like intellectual, like cerebral calm guy, like 5-8, just sort of is who he is. And like, I feel like the Dominator doesn't, doesn't really fit his vibe. No, it's obviously just trying to play off his name. And it's really, I've hated his nickname. I think he actually has. my least favorite nom de garre in the entire sport like it's so bad to me wow wow wow uh i can't think if i hate it that much but i'm starting to like it less uh you're kind of peer

pressuring me into thinking it's it's dumb i hope i'm peer pressuring all of our listeners because he either shouldn't have one because nobody refers to him as the dominator so he should just be dominant cruise which is fine a lot of people don't have force griffin like that's totally fine, but super shouldn't be something dumb like the Dominator. Where he's going against Marlon Chito Vera that is like an actual nickname to the point people just call him Cheeto and like, you know exactly who you're talking about. Exactly. I think I'm going to start calling him Marlon and Dominic Cruz, the Dominator for the

rest of the week. Yeah, we got Marlon versus the Dominator. Well, Cheetos, all I'm saying is Cheeto is winning the nickname contest, the 10-8 is a 10-7 round. Wow, 10-7. 10-7 on the nickname. Yeah, I mean, Cheeto's the man. Like, tough to cheer against. I just like Merlin Cheeto-O-Vera.

Like, going back watching some tape, thinking about the fight, I think Cheeto-Vera is probably going to win. Like, I feel like when he feels the power of Dominic Cruz, he's just going to kind of do what he was doing against Rob Font. Just be, like, eating two, three, four punches to trade for a clean. shot. Now the takedowns do kind of worry me. Like going back and watching the Frankie Edgar fight, like, Frankie Edgar had a little bit of success there. And like, I feel like Dominic Cruz might be able to repeat a little bit of that. When it comes down to it, like, this fight to me in my eyes

is too close to lay minus 225 on Marlon Chitouver. Like it, you know Dominic Cruz is going to come in with a good game plan. I could just see it being just like a nasty decision that you just don't know who won when it goes to the scorecards. So I agree the laying minus 225 is a, that's a tough hang. But let me try and convince you otherwise, because I have a side here. I haven't taken Vera, but I am taking Vera by decision. That number is at plus 130 plus 140.

That's a little tasty. it's it's certainly a much more interesting line than the minus two whatever my thoughts here got a few of them one if you couldn't tell by my disparagement of him and his fight nickname never been a huge dom guy never been a big cruise fan um mainly because i don't understand him and you always hate the things you don't understand that's just how life works and i i recognize that his style works but like the Cody Garbrandt fight was the most vindicating thing. I was like, look, you just punch him in the face. He's really not, like he's not doing, he's doing a lot of dumb things.

You just don't fall for the dumb things and you punch him in the face. It's very not difficult to do. Why aren't people doing this more often? And I've just sort of felt like that the whole time. Like he's lauded for his footwork and defense. And they're different and certainly tricky in some regard. but they're not fundamentally sound. And so that's why Cody Garbrandt tuned him up.

He just boxed him. He just boxed him really well. It was very efficient. So I've never been a huge cruise guy. Just to jump in real quick, you said people love him for his footwork and everything. So much so, there is a website, move like cruise.com. And it's where you can buy. Don't move like dominant cruise.

You can buy a course for $30 and he'll teach you. The tagline is get footwork superpowers like Dominic Cruz. I wish it said like the Dominator. That would make it so much cooler. It would make me hate it so much. Featured on Forbes, the UFC, the New York Times, ESPN. I might have to get footwork like Dominic Cruz, 30 bucks. Don't because there's a reason that nobody else has footwork like him.

And trust me when I say, it's not because he's so much better. MMA, any combat sport, any sport, but certainly in M&M. may you see all the time that when people have a new thing that's cool and works everyone copies it the low calf kick became like overnight everyone did it no one's copying cruises footwork because it only works for him because of the very specific way his game lines up and because this is the thing he has worked his whole life to perfect and i'm still not even sure it's good it is at least effective for him in that regard nobody else should try and copy it just like learn how to box, learn how to cut a cage, learn regular things.

Anyway, my point be, never been a huge cruise guy. As you said, who doesn't love Cheeto Vera? Cheeto Vera is the man. Like, you're just, he's just the best. Tactically, the only thing I'll say is, I think Cheetahever has really good low calf kicks. I think that's a really effective weapon against a dude whose legs are weird, like Dominic Cruz and slows momentum down. I agree the wrestling may be a bit of a concern, like not here to say that that's, you know,

nothing to be concerned about. But would you, you look at Dominic Cruz's, you know, take down stats or whatever. Can I tempt you with this? Because this is a man's old. What's he, like 37, 38? He's getting up there, yeah. He's had infinite knee surgeries,

just an infinite number of them. And since coming back from, let's say, let's draw the line at the Suhudo fight just because he was off for like four years or whatever between Garber and Suhudo. Do you know how many takedowns he scored? I'll go with two. Three in three fights, zero against Henry Suhudo, two against Casey Kinney, one against Pedro Munoz. Do you know how many takedowns he's attempted during that time? Oh, I'm going to guess like 11, and I do want to say that Pedro Munoz.

Munoz was, I think it was because he got rocked and that's the only reason he, like, had to go for it. How many is he attempted? 22. Oh, wow. Wow. Great stat. Three for 22.

Three for 22 because I don't know if you know this, but when you're old and your knees don't work, it's really hard to wrestle people. Cheeto Vera is younger, faster, I would say stronger. Maybe he may have some issues early with cruises, kind of eccentricities. but I think the calf kick's going to play really effectively for him. I think he's going to slow some of that movement. Cheeto is a really smart fighter. He is not going to go head hunting dominant Cruz early.

He'll work the body. He'll work the legs. He'll let the things open it up. Maybe Cruz does score some takedowns. Cheetos is not a huge defensive wrestler, but I just think on the balance he's going to win this fight. I do think Cruz has historically been really tough. What, Sehudo is the only guy who's put him out since, like,

the first Faber fight. Yeah. So. That was also a submission. Yeah. It has been dropped a few times. I mean, Garbrand plunked him a couple of times. I mean, Munoz.

I had the over in that Munoz fight. It was pretty scary. I like, if, listen, I do think Cheeto is probably going to win this fight. And you make a really good point with the takedown thing. I still don't have enough confidence. I kind of like the decision thing. Does it worry you at all that Cheeto just brutalizes them over like the five rounds and it doesn't make it to the distance?

That's why this is not like I'm not super pumped on this bet. I just think that there is value on the decision line much more so than taking Barris straight because I do have some real concerns about banking on Cruz who is 37 years old coming up against a guy who really seems to be cresting. Like, Cheeto really seems to be coming into form. And so with 25 minutes, there's a lot more opportunity for Cheeto to front kick him in the face or whatever. Like you did to Frankie. Like, it won't be like, it's a little sweaty.

And it's a line I wouldn't take it at negative money, but plus 130, plus 140 is enough. I think there's enough value there for me to pull a trigger on it. So you want to know there is a book out there that has draft king supposedly has this. I don't know if they have it in New York, but Cruz to not win inside the distance is minus 2000. I feel like in a crazy world, I feel like there's still value on that. I would be so shocked if Dominic Cruz finished Cheeto Vera in this fight. When was the last time, Dominic Cruz?

Was it Mizugaki? You had to have been Mizugaki because he hasn't fought that one. And that was like, nobody anticipated that as the best performance of his entire career, probably. Dude, like, you're talking about this guy never gets finishes and, like, Cheeto never gets finished. Yeah, Cheeto can't be finished as far as I'm concerned. Like, he just is too tough. He's got too much to fight for. He just, like, the guy is just an absolute beast. I would be so shocked if Dominic Cruz got to finish. So something that I did do, first time ever, I don't know what all books. have this available, I took it on bed online, is

more significant strikes landed by Dominic Cruz. Ooh, what's the line at? So it's a little bit juice at minus 200, but dating back to his WEC days, Cruz has only been outstruck in two of his 17 fights, obviously a lot of them being wins.

He's got 71% striking defense, top five Banimate history. Meanwhile, Cheeto has a negative striking differential for his UFC career. In fact, five of his 13 UFC wins, he has been outstruck in. Ten of his 19 overall UFC fights, he's been outstruck in. So over half, I mean, you look at that Rob Font fight, like he got doubled up in strikes and still clearly won the fight

just by inflicting that much damage. I could absolutely see a world where Dominic Cruz outstrikes him by a thorough number and still loses a decision. I could see that world. I like the bet from a it's fun and different. I had never done one before. I would not take minus 200 on that action. That is a, that's a very juiced line.

But good luck to you, sir. I think it's juice for all the reasons that I just said. Yeah, good luck to you, sir. I will not be tailing you on that one. I'm okay with that. I'm okay with that. We're in this fight together, but we don't have to, we're in this war together,

but we don't have to fight every battle together. That's true. Do you have anything? else in this way? I used over one and a half juice to the moon as a little parlay piece just to get me up on something. Yeah. I did that with over two and a half. Nice.

Nice. Yeah, I had a parlay at like minus 160. Like what happens if I had the over one and a half? It got me down to like minus 115. I was like, eh, it's worth it. Yeah. I mean, over one and a half, absolutely for sure. I just did over two and a half because over like three and a half is not, is, there's like a big gap there.

over two and a half was the nice nice sweet spot in the middle minus 360 you know yeah shot i mean shout out to herb dean the anyone who had the under three and a half in uh the joll santo's fight i feel for you lasted one second over uh by herb standing there you know some sometimes that's just how it goes tough scene it's a fact that's a fact sometimes you just get those shout out to joanna and uh jean back at uh two seventy five uh yeah just a little a little a little Cheeto, Cruz, combined, WEC and UFC fights, 30 of 36 have gone the over one and a half. Tough dudes. Dominic is not, I will, I don't know what I'll do if it's, like, if it is not like a freak injury like we've seen lately,

Dom just either just knocks them out or gets a submission in the first half of the fight, I would be so shocked. I don't know what I'd do. So yeah, I think that goes over one and a half. I think it goes over two and a half, too. I think it probably goes to a decision. I mean, I couldn't agree more. At least we agree on that.

Yeah, we got deep on that main event. We're already, you know, 25 minutes into this episode. That's fun, because I don't really care about any of the other fights on this card. Yeah, let's get into it. Literally none of the other fights on this card do I care about. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter.

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Co-main event, men's featherweight bout. We got David Onama going up against Nate Landware. Onama minus 275. Landware coming back at plus 230. And at some books, you can get Landware for like plus 275 at this point. Over under, set at 1.5. Over is minus 145. Under is plus 115.

I got nothing on this fight. But like it feels like this Onama number just keeps growing. growing. We're only halfway through the week. I want to say he was at like minus 200, minus 210 early in the week, and now he's, he's up over minus 300 at some of these books. I feel like it's just going to keep growing. I feel like he's sort of a little bit of a fan favorite as of late. I just don't feel enough confidence. Stephen Parlay him up at this point. He's going up against Nate Landware. Dog, big motor on him. Not going to play him, but I mean, he's ascending close to plus 300 at this point.

I mean, obviously, Onama could just starch him. We've seen Nate's chin be compromised, but I mean, there's a world where Nate makes this a close fight. Yeah, I have nothing here for all the reasons you said. You know, O'Nama should win. He's bigger, younger, faster, stronger. He has every chance to come in here and just blow the doors off Landrear. But Landrear is an inverted fighter. He's 2 and O as an underdog.

O and 2 is a favorite. So Vegas has no idea how to book him, basically. Absolutely no clue. Gives me a lot of pause here. So like this is a situation I would say is dogger pass, but I think is mostly just pass. Yeah. I'm just going to pass on it.

Just enjoy it. Maybe Onama continues that finish streak that he's got going right now, 100% finish rate for him. Next up, on the main card. We've got a middle-way bout. Gerald Mearshart. Going up against Bruno, Silver right now, Silvasin at minus 285, Mirchard coming back at plus 240, over under, set at 1.5, under minus 130, over at even money.

I got two plays here, both parlay pieces. I feel like you could kind of guess what they are just from that. I think you are probably parlaying Gerald Mearschart at the plus number he is, because that's what smart betters do. That is correct. You got it. It's actually Gerald Mirashart by subparlaid. That's better.

That is a way better way to go. With the Dominator by knockout. So I'm going to assume that one of these parlayed legs, his fight does not go the distance. That is correct. I have no idea what that line is at, but I would wager it's over minus 220. Yep, it is.

It's minus 350. If you just look at it. Mearshaart, 43 or 49, fights have never have not gone to decision. Silver 25 of 29. I think it's kind of like the Sakai Spivak fight last night. I think either Bruno Silva is going to knock him out or Gerald Mearschard is going to submit him. He does have five. Bruno Silva does have five submission losses on his record, but it was kind of those early Brazilian regional scenes. He's a little bit more green. He's fighting a lot of guys. I'm sure that are BJJ practitioners. He did get his black belt last year. I feel like he's improving

in that aspect of his game. But GM3, Subbing people is what he does, so I wouldn't be shocked if that was the outcome. Also, funnily enough, not that this has really any bearing for our betting, but when I was looking into this, yes. Joe Mearshard, big submission guy. Also, most of his career losses have come by submission. He has lost eight by sub, four by decision, three by chaos. I saw that. I saw that, which is interesting.

It's super weird. You hear the killer be killed. He's the suburb be subbed type guy. Yeah. Tap or be tapped, baby. That's how it goes. I don't hate the fight. It doesn't go to the decision.

I think that's a good line. But I just have one bet on this. It's Bruno Silva by KOT, K.O. Because everything you said, 19 of Silva's 22 career wins have come by KOTKO. Dude just comes out. bombing on people. Mearshard obviously hasn't been caoed that often, but he is caoable. Silva

is a BJA Black Belt. I think he it's not absolute death if he goes to the floor. I think he'll be able to get up and just kind of bomb on him. The number is fairly high at minus 160, but I still think that that's overwhelmingly likely to be the outcome of this fight, so that's where I took. Yeah, I mean, dude, he's tough as nails too, bro. We have seen him go through the fire.

You know, I mean, the Alex Paheta loss is aging quite nicely now. You know, against... Future middleweight champion, Alex Paheta. Wow. It's a take. I think I'm going to commit to it. It's early, but I think I'm going to commit to it. I love that.

We'll go head to head because I will be on Izzy. Allegiances don't die easily around these parts, and I've been riding with Izzy for quite some time now. I mean, you've got to do what you got to do, but Alex if Izzy fights the way he's been fighting against Behera, he is done. Because you're just given that man way too many opportunities. And he's hit so hard. Yeah, I think Izzy has become familiar with how hard he hits in the past.

Izzy, by submission, first one of his career. That would be absolute. That would be the best outcome possible. Definitely taking it for the memes. There's no doubt I'm not. Like, we talk about my submission props losing every single time. I'm ready to lose another one at UFC 281, and it's Izzy by submission. Look, I'm probably joining you.

That'll be my hedge, you know. I'll be on Paeta, but Izzy by 7 plus 3,000 or whatever, be fine. If Izzy does lose, which I would hate to watch happen, and Pahera becomes champ, I hope they just feed him like the most gnarly BJJ dudes for, the next five years and he just reigned supreme over everyone. And every single time, people are like, this is the one. He's getting subbed. He's getting subbed.

Then he goes his whole career in the UFC without ever getting subbed. Like, if we were talking about Sean Strickland, like a lot of chatter about Sean Strickland submitting Alex Pahedahed. I mean, if Sean Strickland didn't literally have the worst game plan in the history of professional organized fighting, he could have done it. I'm not saying you would have, but there was a world. I think a lot of people could do it. I think a lot of people could do it, but will that? Look, what I hope they do is, is Paheda wins. It's just way funnier if Pahara wins because so many,

he's like, not unreasonably would be the champion, but also might be like the 10th best actual middleweight in the world, which would just be incredibly funny. And my personal dream would be that they just say, all right, bow nickel, middleweight title shot against Alex Spare. He's got to get through his second contender series fight first, dude. Yeah, but that'll happen around the time the Izzy thing happened. So Bo Nickel wins the contender series, hops on the mic, and it's just like,

Alex Beheada, I want you. Now, you know what I want? I did say, I think to you last night, I'm more curious to what a Bo Nickel, Alex Pahara line would look like rather than a Boe Nickel is Izzy. It's certainly closer for Nickel Pahed. I mean, it has to be a three-time national champion at D-1 Penn State. Like, you talk about going D-1, and this guy is the pinnacle of D-1. You 23 world champion?

You want to know what I'd like to see? It's been quiet lately. No. Alex Paheta. Alex Pahedahua wins for all of Brazil. He calls Colby Covington to come up to middleweight. and fight him for his belt for his comments that he made when he was in Brazil. Then we get the wrestler versus the striker and see what happens. God, middleweight is such a stupid division.

If this happens, it'll be so funny. Dude, I would actually, that would be so incredible. I mean, what is Colby up to, dude? He's in legal battles. He's doing poker tournaments. I think that's it. I think he's just in legal battles. And so he's not getting into real battles for the time being.

Meanwhile, Masldal is doing interviews. He's trying to book his next fight. Should be fighting pretty soon. All right, that's that. I also have Bruno Silva Parlayed up. I think he gets it done here. I've been a fan of this guy since he joined the UFC. He did the tough back then.

He's tough now still. No pun intended. All right, keep it rolling on the main card. Light-heavy weight batted. Is Devin Clark going up against Osamot Mirzikanov? Merzikonov at minus 155. Devin Clark at plus 135. under a two and a half, under minus 1.30, over at even money.

Another fight that I have nothing on. I just don't have a ton of interest playing Osamad after his last fight. He was struggling against Tefan before he got the knockout. Now he's getting a veteran in Devin Clark. I just, I don't know. I'm just going to pass on it. That's where I'm at right now. I want to play Devin Clark.

I think Devin Clark should actually be the favorite. I think this line is a little off, mainly because Merzikanov is undefeated. I think that's weighing heavily on the public in the book's mind. But it's really tough at this price. Like if Clark was plus 200, I'm on him for sure. If he's even up to plus 180, I think I'm on him. But at plus 130, it's just not a huge...

There's no real value there. It's like at best even. maybe a slight value but not enough to warrant a play here, especially when I don't feel confident in the outcome. I just, he has a lot of advantages here. Like, he's very durable dude. He is, if not a better athlete, I think he's as good an athlete as Mersikanov,

because Mersikonov is sneaky athletic. But Clark will also, you go to the wrestling. Mersikonov can grapple, but he has mostly been, punching you. That's how he wants to go about business. Clark's big. He's got reach and length. There are a lot of tools in his favor, but he's had a lot of opportunities to show up in big moments, and he has seemingly just never, ever done that. So that's really the big blocker to me. He's one in four as an underdog. That one win was against Alonzo Menefield. Alonzo Mendefield, not known as like the best dude in the world.

So it's just, it's hard for me to take a play on Devin Clark. I do think this is dogger pass. If I don't think the line's going to move that much, and if it does, it probably moves towards Clark, if we're being honest. I think so. If the line did drop, you know, I'd start really considering it at plus 150. I think I'm with you. I know a lot of people that got in when it was at that number.

It's come down a little bit. Maybe as we get close to the weekend, people who might not be as much into the sport, want to lay some money on it. they see 11 and O, they go heavy on Osamont. 11 and his name ends in and off, so you know he's good. I mean, with a name like of, you've got to be good.

I think we're both on the same page. Dogger Pass, but haven't pulled the trigger on that one. Let's keep it going. Main card. It is a women's flyweight bout. We've got Nina Nunez going up against Cynthia Calvio. Calvio at minus 170.

Nunez at plus 145. Fight goes minus 210. Fight does not go to a decision plus 170. I hit you up about this last night, playing the over one and a half, juice to the moon, minus through 60. I mean, I think this one probably goes to a decision. I got that line on Bovada. I think they made a mistake with posting it because it was the exact same as over two and a half. It's still sitting there as of Wednesday morning recording this. I don't know if they're just not going to take it down. But yeah, over one and a half. I mean, three times in Calvia's career,

she's gone under one and a half 80% of the time she goes over at noon yes since joining the UFC seven of eight times she's gone over one and a half I'll take my chances here I had you know women's MMA I feel pretty good about it making that halfway through the fight so I agree with you and I hate that I agree with you not because I don't like agreeing with you but for one very very specific reason I came into this fight card came into this particular fight with one thought in my head flyweight unders never lose that was actually my biggest concern Cern as soon as I placed it, I was like, this has happened at Bannam, which drop? Oh, God.

Oh, God. Yeah. They never lose, but that's for men's flywaves bouts. I wanted to come in here and essentially just see if it was true for women's. We know it's true for men's. The math backs up. The empirical evidence over the last few weeks has proven men flyweight under absolutely lock of the century. So I wanted to come in here and I wanted to take a bet on the under, which I think is about plus 200 right now.

So, I mean, very juicy for a bet that never loses. But maybe it can lose because it's not a men's flyweight bout. So I wanted to take that bet. And then I thought about it and I was like, I think that this might not be true for women's flyweight belts because I think this fight is going to go over the two and a half. I have the over two and a half, not over one and a half because I'm not. on whatever the book is that you said, I have over two and a half as the third leg to a parley with the aforementioned Veracruz over two and a half.

It's an over two and a half parlay. I love it. I love it. For some weird reason, I always like doing strictly fighting fighters parles and then strictly prop parleyes. It's just like something in my brain. Instead of just putting together like the three legs

that I am most confident in on the weekend, I get dumb. And I'm like, you know, got to be fighters, got to be prop. It's, I don't know, something weird in my brain. Well, I don't normally have that issue, but it just so happens that the three, about, like the three outcomes I'm the most confident are over two and a half this week. I love it. I love it. Just sort of how it worked.

Yeah, I do not have a side. I kind of hope no one has a side in this one. I'm assuming you don't either. I don't. A part of me really wants to believe in Nina Nunes, just because less so believing in Nina Nunes than it is not believing in Cynthia Calvillo, which has historically, especially lately,

I think she's on a three-fights kid right now, has been, it's paid off. It's been a good payoff. But, you know, I just, Nina Nunes is a little older. The fight camp change, not nearly as confident that going to the Nunes fight camp is going to be a better look for her.

So just not getting involved, staying there. No reason to. No reason to. Let's keep it rolling. Last fight on the main card. It is a strawweight bout. Yasmin Yaraquite? Sure.

I couldn't find any videos where it was like constantly saying her name to give me enough confidence. She's going up against Yasmin Lascenda. It's a Yasmin versus Yasmin battle. I mean, spelled differently, but. It is important that they are battling for naming rights. Love name right battles. Love the name rights.

Yaragui is minus 210. Lucindo is plus 180. Fight goes. Minus 160. Fight does not go plus 130. Another fight, shockingly, this is a tough card to bet, in my opinion, with all these lines. I do not have a bet on this one if I was going to. I would probably go with the favorite.

Yasmin Yaraigue. I'm just eating through that. This is one of the toughest of struggling. Struggling. Yeah. I mean, just watching a few of her fights, like she looks pretty good. She's a finisher at Strawweight. But, like, she is only 23.

She's making her UFC debut against another debutant who's only 20, who is coming down from flyweight. Might be bigger. Might use the grappling. Just like a lot of unknowns for me to get involved on a minus 210. You're making a smart decision. I'm not. Oh, let's go.

I want to hear it. I am not because I decided as I was going through this fight card and I realized that I was going to have like three bets if I didn't start doing something, start being a little dumb. Decided to be a little dumb. And I looked at the naming right fight and I said, I want to bet. I want to be involved in a fight for the naming rights because what are we doing here if not? Nothing. We're not doing our jobs. Exactly.

We're here to have fun. So I went and looked at some tape. And I have a new theory. I have a theory about gambling that I am workshopping. I've been thinking about it for a while, but here's where we're at. And it's going to be analogous to high school football. Because five-star recruits in high school football, if you're coming out and you're a five-star recruit going into college,

you essentially have a 50-50 shot of being like a long-term NFL player. It's very high rate. Conversely, like a two-star high school recruit, overwhelmingly likely to not even make the league, much less do you have a sustained career. There are outliers. You know, things happen, but mostly that's how it goes. Yaraguay is probably a three-star level prospect right now. Like, she's young, she's scrappy, she's athletic, she's very aggressive, she's decent all around.

She is, fights pretty smart, especially for only. being 23 years old. Lucindo is a two star at best. She has lost, and granted she was 15, so you got to take some of that with a grand assault, but she lost some early fight to people who didn't have winning records. Eight of her 18 opponents had zero wins on their career when she fought them. Her combined opponent record is 30, 22, and 2.

Over half of those wins come from just two. people she fought. Like she has, she fought absolute trash on the regional circuit and didn't even beat it all the time. 18 fights and like her opponent's combined record is like 55 fights. Correct. Because a lot of them had zero fights at the time that they fought. Like it is.

Wow. Again, half of those, half of those wins, half of the 30 career wins her opponents have had when she fought them were from two, like two fighters together. She just, she brought a bunch of not, a bunch of garbage on the, on the regional scene and didn't always beat the garbage. Five star athletes, five star recruits always beat the garbage. Two star recruits don't beat the garbage and two star recruits aren't going to make it in this, in the big leagues.

And so for that reason, I'm backing your Gwai at minus 210. She is going to be the superior, Yasmin. She's 23 and I think she's just straight up better. I hate that I'm laying minus 210 here, but... You're selling me on it. I want to. I'm not going to, but you made a great sales pitch for anyone out there. Look, the long and short is I want to bet on this fight, and this is the bet that's going to win, so that's what I did.

I love it. I love it. I mean, you almost sold me. I'm still going to stay away, but I'm going to be cheering hard for her to be the superior Yasmin. I think she's going to be the superior Yasmin. I look forward to what I... I'm going to be half a unit richer. That's what I'm talking about, baby.

Brick by brick, this is a slow process here. Half unit makes a big difference in the long run. All right, that is the main card. Six-fight main card, classic fight night stuff. Let's move on to the prelims we have. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time.

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I actually have to see right now if you added a fight. I did not add any fights to our thing. You have all the fights that are there. Sick. It's a lightweight bout. Gabriel Benitez, Moly, going up against Charlie on DeVeros. It feels like on Tavares. like Charlie on Tavares is like a, what would it be, an alter ego to Charles Olivera?

It's like his evil twin. Just Greek Charles Olivera? Yeah. Yeah. It feels like his twin anyway. I didn't think about that at all, but I like that a lot. Yeah. Right now, Mowgli, minus 360.

On Tavares plus 295 over under, set at one and a half under minus 200 over plus 160. the, on top of that alter ego thing, it really is like the alter ego. But instead of like going through the fire and like getting rocked and coming back to win fights, On Tveros just gets rocked and loses 11 and 8, 8 losses by knockout. I parlayed up the fight does not go the distance at minus 375 with the aforementioned over one and a half in the main event and the Bruno Silva fight to not go to a decision. I mean, I just think this fight's going to be chaos. ever watched an Altaverro's fight the one against Steve Garcia. He just comes out and just throws. I mean, this dude is killer be killed in his last eight fights, four and four, three wins by

first round finish, three losses by first round finish, one by second round finish, lost by second round finish. I mean, he does not last long. Like I said earlier, eight losses on the record, all eight are coming by knockout. Mowgli is not as big of a finisher, but, I mean, five of his last six have ended up finished, three losses, two wins, four of those happening. the first round. I mean, I just think it's just going to be able to load it up shots, swinging for the fences, whoever goes down, goes down. I thought about playing Mowgli and Parlay, but Altaveros is just so much bigger than him. I think he's six inches of height and five inches of reach. So yeah, I stayed away from that. But yeah, I just don't think this one is going to a

decision. Yeah, I have nothing to say on this fight. I don't have any action. I think you have adequately broken it down and I would assume that Mowgli gets this one done but the size really keeps me

from making him a parlay piece. Same. So that's that. Let's hope it's chaotic. Let's hope we get some violence. Next up.

It's very likely to be fun. I think it's going to be fun. Antivaros, he might not always win. He might not be great but his fights are usually fun and chaotic

so I'm looking forward to that. You're telling me an 11 and 8 fighter might not be great. I don't know if I can believe that. I'm really blowing some minds here, but I think so. Oh, until the UFC. Big take.

Big take. Oint of the UFC as well. Next up, pre-lens, the one we've all been waiting for. This one's near and dear to know about the BART Nation. It is a men's flyweight bout. You know what that means. Do I need to say any more? Odey Osborne, minus 245, going up against Tyson, NAM, plus 205.

the over-under is currently set at minus 120 for the over, minus 110 for the under. I actually think there has been line movement overnight since I wrote those lines because the people know, because the people have become aware of this stat. It's now the favorite. Under 2 and a half is now minus 125 over minus 105. I scooped it up last night at plus 105 under 2.5. It is a men's flyweight fight. You know what to do.

You know what to do. Do we even need to break it down? I feel like the people know at this point. I feel like they've learned from us. You've said it on the show already. It's a guarantee. It's a guarantee. The most confident bet I have on the entire card, under two and a half.

Most confident bet I've had in a long time. In all seriousness, though, this is actually a men's flyway fight that I like the under end. I mean, O'Day Osborne, eight of his last nine, have ended in the first round, Tyson, NAM. hasn't been finished since 2013, but uh, means he's dough. Means he's due to get finished. But if he doesn't get finished,

he's got 12 knockouts himself. O'Day Osborne is, is not, you know, he has been knocked out in his career, uh, especially in the UFC. Thinking whoever gets it done,

gets it done inside the two and a half. I mean, that's, that's just all it is. Like, O'Day is coming in here. He's coming here to take care of business. So we'll say that Tyson,

Tyson am is as well, but it's O'Day. O'D is coming here, take care of business, and the man does not get paid by the minute. He knows that. He wants to get in, get out, get that paper, get that bonus. It's done. This is under two and a half. It's a guarantee.

I think that would take us to 4 and O on flyweight unders that we've given out on the show. Yeah, because they never lose. They never, ever, ever, ever lose. I'm praying this one hits. I need this stick to keep going on. I'm going to start just doing it one open parlay and just leave all.

the other legs for the next flyweight under, I can bet to add to it because it never loses. I love it. I love it. Yeah. Dead serious. This was the one bet that before we even did this, I knew where I was like, oh, cool. We were talking about this beforehand. Tough card to bet. Not a lot of lines I love here. Well, I got one bet. One bet locked in. Just holstered, ready to go under two and a half. Let's go, baby. The props were a little bit slower this week.

chomping at the bit to get this over-underline. And I hit you up. I was like, I don't know where it is. Like it hasn't come out yet. You were like, yo. Plus 105, baby. Prop just dropped, dog, check it. And I ran to the window to place it as fast as I possibly could.

It opened at plus 135. It sat there for two minutes. I mean, the people. The people knew what to do. Like, there was no doubt about it. The people slammed that line down to plus 105. now it's minus 125 get in while you still can't folks

I mean I feel like such a jackass if this loses no by the time this it's never going to lose because they've never lost ever once in the history of the world all I'm saying is you guys got a this is for the listeners now that you know if you have

if it's your first time welcome glad to have you a part of the no bet's bard family no beths bard nation but now you know because every future line, you're going to see the movement because the people have learned. So you've got to get in early on the under two and a half because you're going to start seeing minus three hundreds for flowery unders because everyone knows that they never, ever lose. I did see a stat. I want to say the guy's name is Crispy MMA.

He really keeps track of some really obscure stats. He gave me a great one a few weeks ago about people coming in on short notice at Pickham or Dog Odds or like 2 and 23 in 2022. but he keeps track of the finish rate for every single weight class. And I want to say fly weights is at like 48%. And like you have to think that a lot of those are plus money. This has to be a profitable endeavor in all actuality. It's absolutely. You're acting as if this is a meme.

This is a lifestyle for you. I know. It is an ethos to live by. I just, it's going to crush me when it finally loses. when the well finally runs dry on us. A blind squirrel finds a nut every now and again, and eventually somebody will be too tough for their own good, and a referee will make a bad decision

and not stop a fight on time and the overall hit. But that's once in a blue moon, because the rest of the time, it's unders all day, baby. I also love that we refuse to take the fight doesn't go to a decision line. It's never going to do that. It has to be the under. It has to be the under.

It has to be able to say fly a day. under. Under two and a half or under four and a half? Well, or under, yeah, because under one and a half starts, I'm not confident that that cashes every time. You got to know that someone's going to come out swinging if that's going to happen. So, Ode, do us good. Tyson, do us good. No bets barred nation is depending on you. The weight of the world is on your shoulders. Flywood unders. I can't wait. I love betting flyweight. It's becoming a problem. It's the most electric bet. It's the most electric bet in the sport. One of those little guys gets on the back. It's just like, here we go. So, related, because it, there isn't, there is an option for us to do this.

Actually, do you have anything on the Martin Boudet fight? I don't, I don't remember. I don't look at the dock right now. No, what are you talking about? I don't have anything up on the Badae fight, but I have been toying with, the idea and by toying with, I mean, it's been a fixation in my mind every night. When I go to bed, I start thinking about it. What if the same way that flyweight under is always hit?

I know where this is going. What if heavyweight over is always hit? And that's what we need to be. They don't always hit, though. But what if they do? I want to say last week, Spivakakai did not hit. And then the week before, Derek Lewis ended in like 45 seconds. Yeah, well, that fight in particular was always going to hit an under.

But like, Spivak Sakai might have been over one and a half. I don't think it would have been over two and a half, given what it is. And over one and a half, Spivak Sakai, in fact, did hit. I mean, I actually don't, I don't hate the Breski Boudet over sitting at over one and a half at a minus 150. You know what? For science. We don't need to talk about the fight, but for science, just to find out, I'm going to take that over. It's minus 165 on DK right now, one and a half.

I'm going to take the over. So we can start seeing. We can start seeing if heavyweight overs are the less attractive but equally as viable cousin to flyweight unders. I love it. I love it. You're a man of science, man of research. The only way to find out is. to put a hypothesis to test.

You got to test the theory, and this is the new theory. Boudet, Breski. It's going to get exciting. All right, that's enough science talk for this episode. Let's keep it rolling. We've got just a few more fights to break down. Next up, we have a women's catch weight bout at a 120. It is Lupita Gondinas going up against Angela Hill. Godinez right now at minus 295 Hill at plus 245.

Fight goes minus 265. not plus 205. I parolid laid up Lupido with Bruno Silva. I mean, Lupido Godina just has to be one of the most game fighters in the UFC right now last year. She fought three times over a seven-week span, one time in back-to-back week. She goes two-and-one through that. The last time out, dude, she just mauled Carnalosi. Like 30-26, I think you maybe could have made a case for like a 30-25. I don't know how you could have Carnalosi winning any of that fight. She landed. nine strikes and got controlled for 13 and a half minutes. I've seen a couple of people saying Angela Hill has decent takedown defense.

While that's true, giant sample size, 76%, I believe is what it's at. Just going back and watching the Vierna Janda Roba fight last time out, she found success getting takedowns. She controlled half the fight. I think Lupi is just going to continuously chain wrestle going for these takedowns and just try and do the same thing she did to Carnalose. So we're sort of at odds. I don't feel great about my bet because I think that a part of this is that my brain can't reckon with Angela Hill.

Because Angela Hill, while her record is not very strong, she also got like jobbed out of four different wins over like legitimate top contender straw weights. Sure. And so even though she has since lost some fights that are like, oh, okay, well, you know, Angela Hill was doing very well at one point in time. but that's just not who she's ever going to be realistically. The Xandhi Roba fight is one of them, right? Like, she very clearly lost the Jambahua fight. But she should have beat Amanda Limos right before that. And Amanda Limosch is a legitimate top 10 in straw weight.

Like, should have beat Amanda Limos. She did lose to Tisha Torres, but she should have been Michelle Waterston, and she should have beat Claudia Gidea, when Claudia Gidea was still like a going concern at the weight class. Like, she is one of those fighters who her resume does not show the reality. of her fights. She is a huge dog here. And for me, I didn't take Angela Hill dog money.

I took her by decision at plus 350, just because I don't know if you know this about Angela Hill. When she wins, it is by decision. So I think she's got two stoppages in her UFC career or whatever, and those were several years ago and against. I have a hard time seeing that happening here. Like, Loua Pita is just a dog, bro. She's, you know.

Exactly. Lupita's a dog. And, you know, Hannah Seifers is, that's the level of competition we're talking about as far as Angela Hill getting stoppages. For me, it's mostly a value play at plus 350. I think there's some value there. I think Hill straight is probably value because I do think Godinez, all the stuff you said, I think is true. Like, I think Godinez can have success wrestling and putting a pace. But Angela Hill is pretty.

decent at take down defense holistically. I think Godinez is less likely to find the same success on the ground that René Genji Roba did. Not that Godinez is bad, but Ginger Roba is a, I think, a world champion BGJ practitioner. Yeah. She is. Very elite grappler in that regard. I have some concerns that Hill's 37, but, you know, I don't know.

I also looked at the, and I know that this was a different weight class, but Lubig-Godez, Louie Godinez? Geez, I can't talk either. Luana Carolina had some struggles there. Luana Carolina is not nearly as good at fighting as Angela Hill, though she is bigger. So, you know, there's that. I don't know.

I just feel like there's some value on Hill as an underdog here. Her implied odds for straight is like 28%. I think she's got more of a chance than that to win. So I just took her by decision at plus $3.50. Love it. Love the dog shot. I'll be going against you, but, um, I'm down with a dog shot.

And I also, this is the bet that I feel a lot better about. I took the over. We said the over two and a half parlay. This is the third leg of the over two and a half parley. It's minus 400. Four of Lupi's five, you have C fights. Over two and a half is hit. 15 of 19 of Hill's fights.

Over two and a half is hit. Seven in a row for Hill. The over two and a half is hit. So I feel okay about that one. I mean, even if you're Hill bet, loses, I would imagine it's because Lupita is controlling and racking up points

through the rest of the line. I don't think either woman's getting to finish, especially not one early. Yeah. Over two and a half. That closes out my over two and a half parlay. And that my good sir, is the last bet I have on this card. All right, I got two quick ones that I'll run three with. Actually, my smallest bets on the card. Nothing crazy.

A couple even money plays. Next up is a men's bantam wapout. It is useful for the law going up against DeMont, Blackshear. There's a law minus 125. Blackshear plus 105. It goes minus 175. Fight does not.

Plus 130. So I took Zalalal money line at the beginning of the week, minus 110. I honestly thought this number was going to drop more than it has. He's sitting right now, like I said, at minus 125. Yeah, I mean, just like I know that the law is technically on short notice too, but Blackshare just getting the call eight days prior. He's obviously making his UFC debut. I think the competition level for Zalal,

the experience that he's been given is just much greater than Blackshears. It seems like every time Blackshare makes that step up in competition, he does catch an L. I mean, every time that he's... So when he fights people that have either went on to fight in the UFC or the contender series, he's one in three. His one win is against DeLon Cruz, and one of those losses is to Chris Motino,

which is just not a great look. I also like that Zalalaw is moving down to Bannonweight. I think if the cut is good, I think that'll be beneficial for him, especially in the wrestling here. I know that he isn't great. This is definitely a loseable fight for him. That's why I'm not going heavy on it,

but I thought I'd get some better line moving out of it. I think he's the better striker. He's going to have to reach advantage. I think he's going to be able to hold his own in the ground game against Blackshare. I know he's a dog and just keeps moving forward and puts the pressure on. But I didn't think it was a complete 50-50 at minus 110,

minus 110, so I won with the guy with the UFC experience. We'll see if it plays out for me, Captain. I have a great amount of hope for you and nothing to contribute to this fight. So good luck, sir. Last one. It's a men's welterweight bout. Jason Whit, Josh Quinlan, supposed to be on the card last week. A little pop on Quinlan moved into this week.

Quinlan minus 245, Witt plus 205, over under minus 1.50, over plus 110. Yeah, I mean, Quinlan has had some issues with the Roids. The Dana White Contender Series gets moved to a no contest. Now this fight getting moved a week later for traces in his system. How does Quinlan win? Almost always by knockout. Nine of his 12 wins across pro and amateur career are by knockout. Five of those in the first minute, he's got the power.

How does Jason Whit lose? of late, it is by knockout. Last five losses are coming by knockout. Two of those in the first minute. I took Quinlan by knockout at minus 110. I think that is the clear path to victory for him. He is not going to want to wrestle or go to the ground with wit. He is going to want to stand and bang.

And I do think that he finds the chin of wind at some point and puts him out. So two smallest plays on the card, both just to win a half unit apiece, but Quinlan by knockout minus 110 and yousuf's a law. money line at minus 110. Beautiful. And that wraps the UFC. Now, I have a bet in Bellator. I have a bet in PFL.

We don't have to spend too much time, but I know that you've got some PFL action too. So feel like we should maybe just, maybe let's bring it up, you know? Of course. I mean, we got to give the people. Expand the horizons. Expand the horizons.

Give the people every play. I want y'all to know what I am riding on so you can either fade me, tail me, or just kind of make a note of what I'm on. My PFL parlay is dead. Dennis Goldstov and Magomed Umalatov getting it done in the PFL playoffs. I like betting on the playoffs. Just feels like it means more.

It feels like, you know, they're really coming in and they're like super serious. That could just be my brain. No, I mean, a million dollars is on the line at this point. Yeah. Plus, anytime you can bet against. as Roy McDonald at this point in time. Feels like a good choice that you can be making. So love those.

I'm going to be honest with you. There's a real chance I take some more action on PFL as the fight gets closer just because I want to. It's fun. It's dynamic. It's exciting. I'm going to be covering the fight card so maybe I can then care about some of these fights. But I took Sada Bousai. I got him at plus 100, I think.

plus 105. Nice. I'm not looking at the slip. That line's already moved down to him being minus 105. Let's go. Basically, I think Cy is really good kickboxer. He is able to keep the fight where he wants to. And in that Roy McDonald fight, which I was sitting Caged side four, really impressed me. And so I think that he has had some struggles in his career, but it feels like he is now kind of ascending. He's going to be the fighter we want. We thought he could be. So I took him up plus money for the funties of it. And I have a Bellator play. This play is probably stupid. I can actually assure you it's stupid. Because I'm betting on Bellator?

Yes. I've grown to hate on betting on both Belator and PFL. I track all my stuff and it has been a money drain for me. But that's because I stink at betting and you are great at it. So give me the winners in Bellator. I only have one at the moment, though I may end up throwing a little Bellator parlay down the line or something like that, because the lines are actually competitively priced in Bellator right now. So if betting on Bellator is bad, betting on Bellator heavyweights is probably the stupidest thing you can do.

But I'm taking Steve Mowry at plus 185. I like this. I like this. He's going up against Valentin Moldovsky. Obviously Moldovsky is a really good. heavyweight particularly by bellator standards um you know just just fought for the interim title or whatever um against ryan bader or maybe that was the real title i don't remember exactly how the bellator title title situation is no he was the interim champion baiter is the real one it was a

thing that's where it is so he's a former former real champion but his resume not not lighten the world on fire. A lot of UD wins. Sure he's fought better competition than Steve Mowery is, but he's he's grinding it out. Steve Mowry is enormous. The dude is 6-8 and just a large person and finisher. Dude is a finisher, dude. Submission, knockout, doesn't matter. Doesn't matter.

He will hit you on the feet. He will take you down. He'll tap you out. He'll punch it in the grip face. Dude has done. He's shown all. of the aspects you want to see from a prospect. I know calling a 30-year-old the prospect is questionable, but in heavyweight, that's a prospect. Perfect 9-0-10-0 in his

10-0, yeah. And plus 185, he's going to be so much bigger than Moldovsky. I was going to say, dude, he is also gigantic 6-8, 79-inch reach. Yeah, he's huge. Moldoski is one of those heavy weights who, like, he's not small for heavyweight, but could probably make 205 if he's a he really wanted to rededicate himself to do it or whatever, you know. He's a smaller guy. He's not going to get Maori out of there early because that's just not what he does, whereas I think Maori has the chance and he's going to have a chance for five rounds or for the full three rounds to get those finishes, create opportunities.

Plus 185, I'm taking a shot on a guy who maybe is a good prospect for heavyweight. To put it in perspective, 6-1 versus 6-8, that's like, Alan Iverson versus LeBron James. And it's going to look a lot like that in the cage, if we're being honest, because Maori is just a big old boy. I hate that you're like kind of talking me into this. I'm looking at a picture of, I'm looking at a picture of LeBron and Alan Iverson side by side right now

and imagining them fighting, except LeBron can knock you out and also submit you whenever he wants to, and he's a 10-and-0 prospect. I'm not here to tell you that what I'm doing is good. Can this convince you because one of my favorite dumb things that also legitimately gave me a reason is, do you happen to know what Steve and Mallory's Instagram handle is? No. Tall Steve fights people.

I mean, it's a pretty good description of what he does. It's just an absolutely ridiculous Instagram. Looking at it on paper now, too. That is a really long Instagram handle. It's a huge Instagram handle. And it's just funny as hell to me. He's 10 and no. He's a big old boy.

Valentin Moldovsky's like a fine fighter, but he's not a tremendous fighter. I feel like this line should probably be closer, if nothing else. His bio is coffee, movies, and fighting people. Sounds like my kind of guy. That's what he does. He's like the man,

and he's not bad at fighting people. He's mostly finishing them. So give me, give me Tall Steve fighting Valentin Woldovsky at plus 185. I'll take that. This is another one I haven't fully committed to yet, but this could end up being a wolf pack. I might ride with you on it.

Yeah, let's go. Let's have a Bellator heavyweight wolf pack for Friday night. That means I have to tune into the Bellator card now. Look, also, Gilbert Burns. Black Belt. He is a Gilbert Burns black belt. Wow. Gilbert Burns gave him the black belt? Yes. Gilbert Burns knows grappling and gave this man his black belt. World champion Gilbert Burns. Let's just add. I love this guy. Every step he takes, I'm starting to like him more and more. Oh, he trains at Kilcliffe. Formerly. He is a Kilcliffe guy.

I love it. Sanford? That was the, yeah. Yeah, Samford. Yeah, that's Kilcliffe guy. So he's, uh, look, I just think there's very much a world where we've got all these fun new people emerging at heavyweight. Let's add Steve Mowry to the mix. This is a little bit of wish casting. I'm hoping that he comes in and taps him because then there might be at least one fun heavyweight in Belator. So I'm doing it.

Plus 185. I did it. All right. Nope. Not ready to come in. You just yeah. I need in a little minute. You got to be so excited.

I was so close to putting it in. I was so excited. Plus 185 is the best number you can get right now. It's all in Draft King Sportsbook. Yeah, give me half the day to think about it. I might end up throwing a half unit on Steve just for the hell of it. Give me something on Friday night. Tall Steve fighting people.

All right. That's everything we've got. That is UFC San Diego and Bellator and PFL. My bets. uses the law money line minus 110. Josh Quinlan by knockout minus 110. Nam Osborne under 2.5 plus 105. Kavillo Nunez over 1.5.

minus 260. Cruz, most significant strikes minus 200. Bruno Silva. Lupita Gones parlayed minus 125. Mirchard Silva doesn't go the distance. Benizontavaros doesn't go the distance. And Vera Cruz over one and a half. That pays at minus 1118.

Denise Goldsov and Magamad Umalata. I mean, Magamette Annenov there, that's tough to deal with. Minus 135 and maybe Tall Steve added to the mix. I love it. I have Marlon Verra by decision plus 130. Yasmin Yarragui minus 210, Bruno Silva by K.O. minus 160. Angela Hill by decision plus 350.

I mean, what you have to have. The un-lusible Ode Osmore-Tyson, NAM under two and a half at plus 105. There's three-leg parlay, the over two-and-a-half parlay, Veracruz, Hilgo Dinez, Calvio Nunes, all over two-and-a-half, plays out at plus 141. Added in, just for science's sake, for the sake of discovery. And we appreciate you for this. I'm sacrificing myself for all of you. I hope you all recognize that.

Over one-and-a-half in the Boudet, I can't pronounce that dude's name, minus 165, then a PFL bet plus 100 on Saddivusai. And of course, as we just talked about, Bellator Heavyweight, Steve Maui, plus 185. Let's go, Tall Steve. Let's go Tall Steve. I think I'm going to have a hard time not getting involved. All right, that is that.

UFC San Diego. How much else to say? UFC 278 next week, we will have a guest with us, guest on board. Camaro Osmond, trying to defend his belt against Leon Edwards. We can get into that next week though. This week, it's UFC San Diego.

You stay classy, San Diego. Love you guys. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.