MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Merab Dvalishvili Make History At UFC 323?

Episode Date: December 3, 2025

The final UFC pay-per-view ever is here. This Saturday, UFC 323 takes place in Las Vegas, the final pay-per-view of 2025, which means the last PPV ever, as the UFC's new broadcast rights deal with Paramount will shake things up. And for their final PPV, the UFC is delivering the good, with two title fights and several big names for the penultimate card of 2025, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Luke Noseda of Morning Kombat and the Main Card Minute to take a look at all things UFC 323. Topics discussed include whether Merab Dvalishvili can make history against Petr Yan in the main event, Joshua Van's chances at pulling off the upset over Alexandre Pantoja in the co-main event, whether the publis has simply forgotten about Brandon Moreno and Henry Cejudo, the next step of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 144 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odu for free at Odu.com. That's ODOO.com. I'm Nelai Patel, editor-in-chief The Verge, and Decoder is my show about big ideas and other problems. We've talked a lot about generative AI on the show lately, which is a very big idea that is causing quite a few problems. And one thing we keep hearing about over and over again is that generative AI is causing a lot of problems in schools. There are a lot of people out there, including many of the listeners of the show who email us, who are worried about the obvious problem, students using chat GPT to cheat on assignments. But when our team went and poked at the story, they found that the issues in education with AI go a lot deeper,

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I'm your host, Jedmishuavimmayfine.com. Great website. And this week, it is UFC 323. Ladies and gentlemen, if you are here in the United States of America, thanks for joining. I hope your Thanksgiving was wonderful. And also thanks to our guest this week. You know him, you love him. He comes in at this point for just about every pay-per-view we do from the main card minute,

prop quiz, morning combat, Long Island Luke, aka Luke Nocita Luke, how we do and how is your holiday? Jed, I had a great holiday. Thank you for asking. Hopefully all the listeners did as well. I'm pretty freaking hype for this card. You know, everyone was talking MSG, best card of the year. I feel like this is a close number two, if not a 1B. It's definitely not a 1B. It is a very good card, though. I really like this card, especially I think for hardcore fans. I also know a bunch of hardcore fans don't care for this card. They have been making themselves known in various comment sections to me. and I understand the complaints in general like it there are there's opportunity for some of these fights not to be that interesting perhaps but they're all meaningful and that's honestly the thing I care the most about especially if there's just going to be this many of them right like if if there's only going to be a couple of meaningful fights and those fights are boring like then okay but you know I think the main event is not going to be that fun but it's one of like seven.

very significant good fights on a card. So I'm kind of fine with it. I'm pretty excited to talk about. We've already chatted a little bit about this, in fact. By the time this comes out, I mean, it will have been several days since we did the pregame preview for morning combat. But I've had a little bit more time, Luke. I know you have as well to actually dig in to not just the big fights, but all of the fights. And before we dive in, Luke, I want to just say.

I'm going to lose so much money this week because I have so many underdog bets this week. I love that. I love that. And there's just, if I go 50% just on my picks, I will make money because almost all of my bets are underdogs. But we'll see. Let's in fact start, of course, with the main event. Marad Válezhvili taking on Piotr, Jan, in a rematch for the Bantamweight,

title, not a rematch for the title. Their first fight was not for the title. This one is, and Marab de Valsh Philly, looking to make history, becoming the first UFC fighter to record four successful title defenses in a year. Technically, he's actually already making history just long as he fights. He'll be the first fighter to fight for a title four times in one year, but if he obviously successfully defends, that will be a different and substantially more impressive level of history. He is a big betting favorite, minus four. 425, the comeback on Peoria on plus 340. Marab is, I mean, there's a reason for this, Luke.

He is on a 14-fight winning streak, and he's coming off a unanimous decision win over Corey Sandhagan at U.C. 320 just a couple of months ago. Jan, three-fight winning streak, right? Like, he's put it together a bit since the loss to Maraub de Valle's Philly and coming off a unanimous decision win over Marcus McGee in July at UFC Abu Dhabi. how are we how are we feeling about the main event loop i mean i feel i was saying this on my betting uh breakdown i'm like people can probably just skip past this fight fast forward it for me because you already know who i'm taking here but you know for the sake of the story i mean you mentioned yon on this three fight win streak he did lose four of his last five before that

streak so you know what was a bit of a resurgence firm we'll call it also like look at this three fight win streak he beat number five number six and number 15 really solid wins. All three of them, top 15. Marab, I know he's the champ. He's got to fight the best of the best in the division, but his last three wins, number one, number two, number four. Oh, and you know who number three is? It's Peodor Yan, who we obviously already beat. I mean, it's just inevitable here. He averages seven takedowns per 15 minutes. This is a five-round fight. We're talking closer to 11 takedowns per 25 minutes, which, by the way, is how many takedons he got in the first fight. He also shot 49 takedowns in that fight, which is absurd. Yon was taken down

by his last five opponents and he also gets hit twice as often as marab which i feel like is an underrated little tidbit there uh i'm a little concerned of the burnout four title fights in a year not only that three title fights in the last six months but got a ride with my dog here marab de wailishrily money line got him at minus 400 taking him in a parlay obviously yeah not my dog uh long time listeners of any of my content will know that i do not like marab de vallisvili i don't think he's bad I never once never will say that he is bad. He's obviously accomplishing a great deal. I think should he beat Piotr Yan?

I still think that there's actually a pretty good case. He's not the Bantamweight Goat, but people refuse to listen to that. So, you know, most people will call him that already. I think that's premature. But if he beats Piotr, Yon, I'm pretty open to just saying, yep, he's a Bandomay goat, and that's good enough. I am equally as concerned about the sort of frequency with which he is competing. We just saw it, you know, earlier this year with Alex Pereira. That sort of cadence of

fighting is very, very difficult at the top level. You can lose to fighters who are not as good as you. I do think there are a couple of things in his favor in that regard. One, Maraup doesn't cut an enormous amount of weight anyway. That's part of the problem with fighting so often. If you're cutting weight that often, you are basically just killing yourself four or five times in a year and that adds up. Rob does it cut in a huge amount to make it to ban him weight. He's also, I don't know if we've talked about this. I don't know if any podcast has ever mentioned this before.

Man has tremendous cardio. So that should help in these sorts of situations. And stylistically, I think this is, I've watched a lot of fights in the last two days prepping for stuff. And I can't imagine a worse style matchup. for Pyotrion realistically. Like, it's so, he doesn't have the kind of tools to make Marab lose because, I mean, one of the ways I think you could beat Marab, and we talked about this a little bit on

MK, you either have to get him out of there, so you have to have like some hyper-violent offense so you can just sort of flip the switch on him at any moment in time and because anybody can get got, right? Or you're going to have to win the first three rounds. and then just survive the last two, like build a lead. Because Marab's not necessarily the fastest starter, but he is a snowball rolling downhill. The problem is Peoria Yan is an objectively slow starter.

Like, historically, he's always, he, his style is I will win. The more information I get, the more I can adjust to you. And once I start making those adjustments, you're cooked. That doesn't really work against Marab. So, like, it's just a uniquely bad matchup. I think there are ways he can make this more competitive. He was really good at defending takedowns, right? Like, in the first one, like, Marab shot 49, he got 10 of them or whatever it was.

And he only started to really get to hold position as the thing went later. So, like, he did, like, Jan has a lot of tools to do better than he did the first time around. I don't know what tools he has to, like, shift the dynamic of this fight. I'd like to see elbows, I guess, from him. Like, that's kind of the one thing. I'm like, maybe he throws some elbows and maybe you can hurt Maraub, but I just genuinely don't know how he wins this fight. And so, for those of you longtime listeners, probably know where I'm going with this. I have this little endeavor, it's called the climb.

We're trying to string together 28 to 30 bets, all of minus 500 or so thereabouts. And we want to run those up the flagpole so we can get, so we can turn. a beautiful $100 wager into tens of thousands of dollars. I think if we actually, like if you actually do minus 500 each time, you get to like 10,000 at like the 25th bet. You can turn 100 bucks into 10,000 on like the 25th bet, I believe it is, maybe 26th.

And if you get it up to 30, it's like 25K. Damn. So we're making a push. This is iteration 6. of the climb we are currently on cashed two legs last time out for steps uh five and five and six yeah i was trying to make sure i knew how many steps we got down steps five and six that was armand sarukin was step six and the bala mohammed i amachado gary over two and a half was step five technically we're like a little bit ahead of schedule right now actually so we are

we're officially on step six we're net step seven right right now. So like we have a little bit of room to play with. If we wanted to take some bigger overs, don't need to because Marab Davalishvili at my book right now is minus 425. So he is the only climb bet this week. I was looking at some other things. There are a few things I think could be reasonable, but I've been double stepping and I don't really need to do that anymore. And the good thing about this loop, if I lose, I won't even be sad because that means Marab lost. And then I'll be happy. I'll be sad. I'll be double sad. I'll be sad for you and for Mara

Mara. Yeah. I'll be sad for the climb, certainly. But I will be cheering on Rob Devalis Philly this Saturday on our watch party for sure. I don't know who I'll be cheering on in the co-main event. I mean, I probably do because I like the guy, but I don't have any action for this co-main event. Luke, I know

you will. It is the flyweight championship as Alejandro Pantoja takes on Joshua van. Pants minus 240. Van plus 200 at the sports books right now. Pants on an eight-fight winning streak. This will be his fifth flyweight title defense.

He has firmly established himself as the second greatest flyweight of all time. He submitted Kai Kara France in June at UFC 317. That is also the last time we saw Joshua Vann where he won a unanimous decision over Brandon Roy Val to establish himself as the number one contender. Seemingly out of nowhere, Luke. This is a guy who at the start of 2025 was unranked in the MMA, fighting rankings and the UFC rankings, he was, this man was not ranked. And then he strings together a really, really great run. He beats Ray Saruya in March. He beats Bruno

Gustavo de Silva in June at UFC 316 and then takes a short notice turnaround fight one month later. Actually, not even a month later. It was later that same month to take on Brandon Roy Val at UFC 317, fight of the night, potentially the fight of the night, potentially the fight of the year. It will certainly be on a lot of people shortlist for that, gets the dub, and now he's fighting for a title. How do you see this co-meeting event going? I got to give you credit, Jed, because you pointed out on MK yesterday.

That was yesterday. Yeah. It was. At the time of us recording, yes. Josh Van went pro in 2021. I did not realize that. So we're clear. October 17th.

So like, not like January. And he's, this is, he has been. professional for four years and two months. Yeah. So I went and looked back at like how often he's fighting. So much. In the year, 2021, if you count the three amateur fights he had, you got to count that because, you know, before they're fist fights. He also had three pro fights. So that's six total there. 2022, he had five. Twenty-twenty three only had two. Twenty-twenty-four. He had four. And then this year, 2025, this will be his fourth. So four of his five pro years, he's fought at least four times, super active. Not only that, super active striking as well. Some would say the most active. I bring

this setup every time I'm on here. He's the UFC all time leader in strikes landed per minute with almost nine, which is absurd. And I think I've brought it up the last like four times he's fought. And he's still maintained that number one spot. Like the pace he's keeping up is absurd. He's fly away Max Holloway. He really is. This is going to be his first five rounder though. In his pro career, he did have an amateur five rounder, but it was only three minutes. rounds not counting that uh he also gets hit twice as often as pantosia pantosia taken down his last five opponents at least three times each which that's a lot bro and van has been taken down by more than half of his ufc opponents i believe five of his nine opponents including seven times in his last

four fights also worth noting here majority of pantosia's wins have come by sub van has been sub before not only that jed i don't know if your books offer this but not Nine of Pantosha's 12 subs have been rear naked chokes. Vann's loan submission loss, a rear naked choke. So if you can get that prop anywhere, I feel like worth a little flyer on that. But I like Josh Van. I really do. But, you know, I'm not doubting Alessandre Pantosia here, riding with the champ.

And still, parlaying him with Marab. Got one more leg on it. We'll get to it in a minute. Yeah. I just quick math this. Do you know how many, so there are 14 fights on this card. Do you know how many other fighters on this card have more fights than Joshua Van? So 14 fights means there are 28 total fighters on the card.

You remove Josh Van. How many have more than him? Have more professional fights because Josh Van, again, he's been a pro for four years. I'm going to say majority, more than half. As I'm looking at it, it's 14, which is kind of insane. That is insane. That in four years. because, like, he's got more fights than Macy Barber has fist fights, you know?

That's crazy. Like, it's, it is nuts. I was thinking, like, does he have more fights than Henry Suhudo? And it's close. He doesn't. Suhudo is 21. But, I mean, give Van one more year and he'll pass Suhudo for sure. It is, his pace is outrageous.

His pace in fights is outrageous. He is just Max Holloway. And it raises the question for me of, like, if Max Holloway had gotten a title fight when he was 24, would he have won? probably not right like probably not and that's sort of where i'm at here i i tend to believe in pantosia uh on this one um he has i i'm sort of in that room right now i'm like i'll i'll pick against pantosia when he loses and not before and at some point he will lose because everyone does but he's so durable he's so well-rounded uh he's so tricksy at getting to the back and once he's there, he can hold it forever.

Vann's really good, as Luke Thomas pointed out on Morning Combat, Van's really good at not being kept down. But that's a whole different world than somebody sliding to your back, and we've never seen someone really do that to him. And honestly, a big factor in sort of my thought here, it's the same thing we talked about with Marab. This is Van's fifth fight in 12 months, right? Like this is so super high activity rate.

he is younger and so that also is something that is much easier to pull off when you are younger but still like when you're just fighting that frequently it's it's tough and uh you know mima math van went hammer and tongs with brandon roeval pantosia dummied him uh pantosia also just seems to be getting better every time i see him he's he is just better than the last time he think he's got more skills uh if van can really force this to be a stand-up fight it gets really interesting really, really quickly. But I'm riding with pants, but I don't, I just don't, I don't have the odds anywhere. I was looking at props.

A sub, like a rear naked choke prop might be interesting. But even the pants sub prop is not like that juicy. I sort of like plus 200. I don't, I don't mind that. That's not, like, that's pretty light. I had five rounds, though. He's got plenty of time to get it done. Yeah, but I don't, that I, to do an exacto, like it, like, to do.

do a prop like that. I want a better price than $200. Especially when he's only like a mine, because at that point, like he's only a minus $2.30 favorite. True. Just take him. I just take the money line at that point.

So couldn't really find anything I liked. If pants gets lower somehow, I would be a little interested. But I think I'm just going to pass and watch this and have a lot of fun with it. I did not see any of the takedown props yet. Stuff like that that sports books like Fandul offer. Those are pretty fun, just be like, ah, significant strike totals or whatever and just bet some overs on takedowns and strike totals because that seems like a thing I might have some fun with.

But none of those are available, so I'm passing on the co-main event. Luke, let's roll on to another flyweight contest as Brandon Moreno takes on Tatsuro, Tyra in a flyweight affair. Moreno, the former champion, former two-time champion, is the underdog in this one. Plus 110, money has come in on Moreno a little bit. The number was a little bit higher earlier this week. Tyra, around minus 120. Marino's on a two-fight winning streak coming off the unanimous decision win over Steve Urseg at U.S.C. Mexico in March. Tyra, 7 and 1 in the promotion, got back in the win column after the Roival loss by submitting Park Hunsung Park, sorry, back in August.

so we talked about this before we i think we mentioned it uh at mk yesterday marino's an underdog huh yeah that seems curious there like that's literally my my breakdown of this fight man like when looking at the numbers sure the one like advantage here is uh merino does get hit more often than tyra and obviously tyra not known for a striking gonna look to take this to the mat moreno has been taken down a bunch taken down in every single one of his ufc title fight which is kind of wild still won three of those fights though you got to you got to keep him down same as the josh van thing got to keep him down um the thing is though tyra has taken down seven of his eight ufc opponents so like little worried here jed little worried but like you

i like literally broke this down in my head i was like yeah marino's probably like a minus 170 favorite and then i looked and was like oh my god moreno is an underdog i'll just take that the analysis stops there moreno is a dog plus 120 let's fuck go support for this comes from Odu. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odu, it's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one fully integrated platform that makes your work easier, CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part, Odu replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.

So why not you? Try Odu for free at Odu.com. That's O-D-O-O-O-O-O-com. Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Roscoe Cadulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness. forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where

identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now. Only from Audible. I mean, I'm on the same boat with you. I don't, I love to retire. I've been singing his praises since he joined the promotion. I, for a long time, thought he was going to be the first champion in the UFC,

born in the 2000s, which would make me feel old, but is also like a cool accomplishment. And that's still in play, right? Like, he still could be that. But I think people are just forgetting about Brandon Moreno for some reason. And not even for some reason. The reason's obvious because Pantosia's on this run. And Moreno's lost him three times. So he's sort of relegated into the, you know, kind of the nether zone of like,

whatever he does doesn't really matter. He's just here for fun fights. He's in the Franklin zone right now. Even though I personally thought he beat Pantosia in the third fight at the time. Every watch, I think Pants probably won. But, like, that fight was, the third matchup was very competitive, and the first two were ages ago. So it's not like those are really the same fighters at the time. But he is just sort of like, yeah, you've lost to the champ three times.

You can't, we can't just keep giving you title fight. So here he is. Then he lost the rematch to Royval, which he definitely won, but whatever. And so people have forgotten, but it's really hard to hold down. He's a much better striker. I think he's just a very good fighter. And he's still only 31. He's still super young.

I think this is going to be a tough night for Tyro who is still developing other skills beyond his grappling game. And let me just tease you with something a little else here, Luke. This is big. Brandon Moreno as an underdog, five, one, and two. This man cashes in a dog spot. So I got, I'm Brandon Marino. I got late to it. We talked about it yesterday, but I couldn't get it until today.

The line was now plus 110. for me, but we're happy with it nonetheless. Man, you know what this fight card has? It's got fly weights and it's got Bannam weights. That's why it's good. There's no heavy weights on this card, which is why it's good. And as we move on to a Bannamweight fight, that is, I don't know if this fight's going to be good, but it's certainly going to be interesting.

As former two-division champion, Henry Suhudo, also Olympic gold medalist, takes on Peyton Talbot. And Talbot is your betting favorite at minus 265 to come back on Suhudo at Plus 225. Luke Sehudo writing a three-fight losing streak coming into this fight. Worse than that, this man has not won a fight because of his retirement. In mini a moon, Luke, he has not want to fight since the height of COVID. May 2020 is the last time he was victorious. And that was over the fallen husk that was Dominic Cruz at that time. He hasn't actually won like a good fight, I guess Marlon Maris

at the time certainly counted as good. That didn't age all that well. Honestly, if you were trying to nitpick his career, you can go pretty far back because the T.J. Dillershaw fight didn't age super well either, and he

damn sure didn't beat Demetrius Johnson the second time. Two judges just got confused. I mean, he beat a roided up, TJ, you know, that EPO TJ, that's a good win there. Jed. He headbutted him and T.J.

was it flat. TJ'd cut weight and was dead. Yeah, I don't. In under 30 seconds, I believe. Yeah. Well, headbutts a really effective weapon. I'm just saying, Henry Suhudo, you can really nitpick his resume if you're trying.

But that doesn't matter because apparently they believe Peyton Talbot's going to beat him. His minus 265 betting favorite, as I mentioned. And Talbot's 4 and won in the promotion. Lost to Howney Barcellos, but rebounded with a unanimous is your win over Felipe Lima. And as we all know, I like Felipe Lima. But apparently, you beat Felipe Lima.

That means you are better than a two-division champion because of the odds here. Similarly, a little bit confused by how wide the odds are on this one, Luke. Yeah, my thought exactly was, ooh, Henry's probably a dog. I could be enticed to take him, let me look at it, then saw the odds and was like, oh, shit. You want to talk about nitpicking Henry's career for like the worst? Let's nitpick it a little for the better here. I mean, he's a former gold medalist Olympic wrestler, like you mentioned. He's taken down 12 of his 15 opponents, including Maraub.

People don't want to talk about that. He took down Maraub, Talbot, taken down 11 times in his last two fights, including eight times by Honi and Barcelos, who I believe is the same age as Henry Sohudo, and I don't remember him being a former Olympic gold medalist wrestler, all right? This feels like a make or break for Henry, particularly if he loses, he probably retires. If he wins, I'm sure he can convince himself He's still got, you know, one more title run in him But either way, three-round fight

I feel like Henry Suhudo can steal two rounds here And I'm definitely taking a stab on that Got him at plus 240. Let's fucking go, Henry. Yeah, you got a better price out of it. I got him at plus 225. And I may regret this because the question is Henry Sunoz shot and he might be.

He looked really bad against Song Yadong. That was his last fight. A tech decision. lost to song yodong yeah before he couldn't see you he i could see he was getting his ass whooped and he got a gift with the i poke stoppage tech decision because it it gave him an out it was an explicable loss instead of just getting thumped for 25 so uh that's pretty tough i think song yadong is obviously just a much more polished better fighter than patent talbot is right now talbot has a lot of promise but he can get taken down

and that's very, very possible here. So if Sohudo's got anything left in the tank, I think he can certainly at least make this competitive. And if we go to the cards, I can feel like I got my money on the right side, even if we lose. But I don't know how shoddy is. I still just had to do it.

It is, this is a huge jump up in competition for Talbot, at least from a name perspective. And I need to see Henry Suhudo get buried before I believe Peyton Talbot has solved all his problems. So I'm fascinated, and it may well be the last fight for, you know, not the greatest combat sports athlete of all times, though he likes to say that, but a significant figure in mixed martial arts history, Henry Suhudo.

And, I mean, I think the most accomplished wrestler to actually compete. Like, you know, like they're Shulls guys, like the other dudes, Kevin Jacksonville, like, actually compete in MMA, Henry Suhudo. I mean, and I guess Gable Steeveson is soon to be a UFC champion, though, but, you know, that's put in the car before the horse. Let's talk about our final main card fight, a light heavyweight contest that is also kind of interesting, to me at least. Jan Blahovitch takes on Bogdan Gustav. Fairly tightly lined, competitive bout this one. Jan Blahovitch, minus 135, the comeback on Guskov, plus 114.

Jan Blahubovych, the former light heavyweight champion on a tough run of late, one three and one over his past five. Unanimous decision lost to Carlos Olberg in March at UFC London. Gustav on a four-fight winning streak, knocked out Nikita Krilov at UFC Abu Dhabi in July of this year. How do you see this main card opener going, Luke? I just want to dissect Blaovich's losing streak there real quick four of his last five I'm going to count the draw

as you know winless obviously three of those four came to champions and the other one came to Carlos Oberg like you mentioned like he's not losing to bad guys whatsoever Bogdan Guskov on the other end you could argue not beaten the best guys we'll get to that in a minute though Guskov lands slightly more

strikes per minute but Yang gets hit less often and Yon can wrestle when he needs to dude he did get three takedowns two fights to go for whatever that's worth Guskov has been taken down by three of his five UFC opponents, including his lone UFC loss to Volcanozimir. This is another fight that I was actually really surprised to see the odds, given that Yon is 42 and winless and four of his last five. But like I said, when you actually look at the resumes, that's what stands out here. Gustav's four UFC wins came to Zach Pauga, no longer in the UFC, Ryan Spann, who had lost two straight going into that fight.

Billy Alicana, who took the fight on short notice, made his UFC debut. and you mentioned Nikita Krilov, but Nikita was viciously knocked out in the fight before that. Like these, we can't really hold these wins in high regard, even if he is finishing them all. Blahovich, last four wins came to two current top 10 light heavyweights, the current number six ranked middleweight and the current PFL light heavyweight champion. Yes, I had to Google that because who the fuck knows who the PFL light heavyweight champion is. It's Corey Anderson, by the way. I think this is going to be a vintage yawn performance here where he possibly shows Gusov some of that Polish power. or he just guts out a veteran decision.

I told you in person, Jed. I was torn between two props on this fight. Fight does not go the distance and the over one and a half. I took your advice here. I'm riding with the over one and a half. It's in that parlay I mentioned. It's Pantosia, Marab, and the over one and a half here, plus 183.

Jan has hit the over one and a half in seven straight, and Gustav has hit it in two of his last three. I just want to nitpick something you said real fast. Hit me. The last four wins of, on the whole sorry sorry yeah yeah no no those are wins uh would you like to give us a timeline on those or do we want to pretend like those wins are i mean relevant in modern society they're very relevant in 2022 that rackage win you know that is the one that's relevant okay israel ad sonya

is he so we're clear when he beat israel otisania josh fan had not started m m ms joshman was not an MMA, professional MMA fighter when he beat Israel Adasagna. This is about Yon, and just so we're clear, Israel Adasanya was undefeated in MMA going into that fight. In the middle, in the middle way, moving up. That's a huge win. At the time, it was a very good win. He beats Dominic Reyes coming off of Reyes, arguably beating John Jones. That's the height of Dom Reyes' career.

That's the best win in his career. And he also happened half a decade ago. Oh, it was five years ago, for those of you are a decade ago. Half a decade ago. Oh, yeah, right. That is half a decade. Damn, that sounds so much longer than it actually is, though. Fuck.

Yeah. All right, guys. Regardless, he lost to Glover in that stretch. I mean, these are solid fights here. I'm just saying, over the course of Josh Vans' professional career, Alexander Rackich has, or Yombovich has one one win. So, something to keep in mind. I just realized over the course of Henry Suhudo's career, he's never won a fight.

Correct. Yes, that's 100%. I'm going to start using this for all things now. That being said, I think Blackovich has like a pretty decent chance in this fight because I don't really care that Goosecuff hasn't beaten good dudes because he's mowed people down. And if you can only fight the guys in front of you and, you know, if the guys in front of you, you are at least slaughtering them. And okay, like, right. Like he was supposed to get to fight Johnny Walker, who I think he would have slaughtered. And that would have been like a good win. But, you know, it is what it is in that scenario.

What I do care about, though, is Gouskov has shown some susceptibility on the ground. Blahovic absolutely can tackle people, just ask Israel to Sanya. And the thing I mentioned on MK, Jan Bojovic is incredibly good at making fights hard. It is hard to fight him. Ask everybody who's fought him basically other than Glover-Teshirea. It is, Carlos Olberg has been mowing through people like the Terminator and he gets to Yon and it's like it's a hard fight. He, you can beat him, but you rarely look good. And so that is a concern for Gouskov who, when he's winning is only looking good.

Can he, can he win a different kind of fight than just hammering some dude? We're going to find out, that being said, I am on Guskov because I think that, I mean, Yon's turning 43 and, a couple of months. Like, he's, he's just old. And Gooskov's on a heater. Goosekhov's on my fantasy team. I would like Goosekhov to win, preferably get a finish, so I don't really think that's in the cards.

But if he can just kind of win a fight, that would be great. And so more with my heart than my head. My head actually says Blohovich probably is undervalued here, but I'm on Bogdan anyway. So that is the UFC 323 main card. Let's dive into the prelims because we got. A little bit to go here. I don't know what we got like nine more fights to talk about. The first one up, I don't actually have that many thoughts on other than I'm very interested

because most of the fights on this card are good. As we shift from bantam weight and flyweight to another good weight class, some lightweight bouts to talk about. Grant Dawson taking on Manuel Torres, Dawson, your betting favorite at minus 218, Torres, plus 180 as the underdog. Dawson is on a three-fight winning streak coming off a unanimous. unanimous decision win over Carlos Diego Faheta at U.S. 311 back in January. Torres, four and one in the promotion, knocked out Drew Dober in March, a U.S. Mexico City.

How are we feeling about this one? I feel like Grant Dawson, maybe it's because of his fighting style, but like one of the most low-key 11-1-1 records in the UFC. Like, I know he's ranked, but it's just something that really surprised me. he's taken down his opponent in all 11 of those UFC wins and he's taken down 10 of those 11 more than once. Torres has shown he can wrestle a little bit. He did take down Chris

Duncan twice but that was also the only opponent in his six Zupa fights that he even took down. Granted, all of them ended in the first round. Let's talk about Torres. He doesn't really take people down. Yeah, he's not about that life. He takes them to the land of wind and ghost. Yeah. Well, let's talk about the land of

Wind and Gus. Dude, he lands twice as often as Dawson and while it's not as good Joshua Vans nine strikes per minute? I mean, who's the land in that? He lands eight strikes per minute. I mean, what the hell are we talking about? He's also top 10 in all time in UFC history, by the way. He does, however, get hit twice as often as Grant Dawson. I feel like this is going to be a typical Grant Dawson fight, actually. Like, he's going to control the pace here. He's going to wrestle his opponent for 15 minutes. But there's definitely intrigue here that Torres could catch him with something like Bobby Green did. I just don't like the fact that we've

never seen Torres out of round one, at least in the UFC. And the longer this fight goes the less I like his chances but dude at plus money when are you ever going to get a grant dawson over one and a half at plus money plus one 30 i'm all over that uh he's hit it in eight of his last 10 torres only hit it once in 19 pro fights which is obviously why it's plus money but i'm hoping dawson again can implement his game plan here and if so i like this to go at least seven and a half minutes dude uh i'll tell you when you're not going to get an over one and a half for Grant Dawson when you climb with it and he's taking on Hoffa Garcia and that's like it was like step eight of a climb or something I was like this is oh right I know it doesn't matter it was it was like a

minute into the second round like he mowed him down and it was like I'd never been more confident like it's Grant Dawson fight of course he's going to do this and then he just beat the soul out of Hoffa Garcia and I was like cool that was fun I hate gambling so So I wouldn't touch it over Grant Dawson, the 10-foot pole, because I'm traumatized from it. That being said, I do like a lot of other things you said. And here's the thing you didn't say. Manuel Tours, pretty strong defensive wrestler, right? Like 80-something percent take-down defense statistically hasn't been shot on by that many people.

But one person who did shoot on him, Frank Camacho. And Frank Camacho is actually a good wrestler, like an accomplished wrestler on the, like, semi-international circuit. Guam scene, where we talking right now? Look, Frank Camacho, can wrestle. I don't know what to tell you, man. Like, he, what did he finish? He's a national champion for something? For Guam, probably.

Isn't he from Guam? I mean, come on. He was representing the Northern Mariana Islands. Thank you very much. All right, all right. But yeah, like, he is, I'm not saying he's, like, the greatest wrestler, but this is a dude who can wrestle and is a more, accomplished wrestler than Grant Dawson is.

And Camacho shut that shit down with authority. Now, Grant Dawson has come out, given interviews this week, been like, I intend to grab his leg and wrestle him. He used some terms I won't use, but his basically direct quote was, we've never seen him go late in a fight, so I am absolutely going to just be boring and you can be mad about it. I didn't even know that. I love that. I mean, yeah, it's frankly smart.

Grant Dawson's no dummy. but Manuel Torres hits real hard plus 180 I like the price for a dude who is very good at staying on his feet and Grant Dawson has struggled when he is not able to immediately get the fight he wants

we'll see but I'm on Manuel Torres I told you man I'm basically just underdogs all day long on this guard she's going to lose so much money here's a way to never lose money you bet the under in this next fight I don't care what it is I actually am not I might parlay it with something but

Terrence McKinney, taking on Chris Duncan, a barn burner of a lightweight contest. McKinney, a slight underdog at plus 140 to come back on Duncan minus 166 is your betting favorite. Both men on winning streaks right now, McKinney just subslava clause at UFC 317. Duncan picked up a unanimous decision win over Matush Rebeschi in August. So we all know the score of this game, Luke. Terence McKinney, the preeminent get-or-get-get-out fighter. He is going to come out here like a batta to hell. He's either going to finish him or he's going to get finished by Chris Duncan.

How's it going to go? I mean, you just alluded to it, but I just have to say it. Terrence McKinney is the most exciting fighter in the UFC. Used to be Justin Gaichi for me. It is officially Terrence McKinney. He's surpassed him. Win or lose. My man is get or get got, like he said.

But he actually has the better striking numbers. He lands more strikes per minute. Duncan actually gets hit twice as often as him. If we look at their resumes, though, since beating for us, Ziam in 2022, which I think is actually a really solid win, McKinney seems to only beat guys not on the UFC level and kind of loses to anyone decent. Duncan, on the other hand, on a nice little run, you mentioned that last win coming against Round Betzky. I hold Round Betsky in like pretty high regard for unranked lightweights. I think that's a really good win, a better than Terrence McKinney win, if you want to do some math there.

I feel like I have to favor Duncan here, knowing how this is going to go in a McKinney fight. I think it's safe to say a Dunkin finish. It's minus 145. I'm going to throw it in a parlay. I haven't decided yet what the parlay will be. 10 of his 14 pro wins have come by finish and all seven of McKinney's losses have come by finish. I just want to say, Judd, excuse me. I rarely take unders. I don't know if I've actually ever taken an under one and a half. But in a Terrence McKinney fight, you mentioned, I feel like that's as sure as any bet can be. McKinney's hit it in all 11 of his UFC fights. Duncan said it in two of his last four. But dude it's pricey man it's minus 300 i'm like what i don't i don't love that for that price but

if any like solid parlay piece it's it's i mean everyone knows the game with mackinney now uh i think mckinney actually might secretly be a live dog here um because duncan does not have the greatest takedown defense mckinney can just sort of overwhelm you early by getting a takedown getting to the back and choking you um not going to do it chris duncan just has better wins i think He is likely to win this fight if he could survive the storm. But I've decided to have a little bit of fun because I didn't want to pick a side here. To me, it is a dogger pass, and I just don't really want to be on McKinney. But I'm having a little bit of fun.

Round two plus 400. Not a full unit on it, but going to throw a little quarter or a half. Either fighter? Yeah, either fighter. Just fight ends in round two. Let's, you know, let's say McKinney comes out. He has a barnstorming first round. Duncan survives.

We play a little bit of a later game before the stoppage comes. It's a very silly bet. I don't encourage anyone to follow, but I want to live. I want to feel something on Saturday. And so round two, that's how I'm choosing to feel. Plus 400.

Dude, a big number. You call that a silly bet. I think that is great value and totally reasonable. Like, plus 400? It's a big number, which is why because I was looking at like the first. The round one prop is like minus 200. I was like, I don't really want to do that.

And I was like, oh my God, it's plus 400 for round two. That feels enough to me. Round three, no. Round two? They just got to make five minutes. Maybe that can happen. McKinney, two of his last three losses in round two. Yeah, the thing, when McKinney loses, sometimes it's because he shoots, you know, blows his wad early, and then they just kill him in the second.

So that's what we're going for, Chris Duncan. The round two plus 400. Let's have some fun. I don't know if this will be fun I am fascinated by it though It's a women's flyweight contest As Macy Barber takes on Karine-Silva Barber your betting favorite minus 180

The comeback on Karini Silva Plus 150 Barber on a six-fight winning streak Unanimous decision win over Caitlin Serminara In March of 2024 At UFC 299 I didn't look I didn't think to look

How many wins Josh Van had had the last time but I mean he's fought 17 times so he had maybe had only I mean five actually he honestly might have only had 10 professional fights at the time the last time that Macy Barber fought I am actually now 100% because he's fought so much so March of 2024 oh yeah since the last time he's fought or Macy Barber's fought Josh Van has fought six times how about Josh Vann's entire pro career has taken place during Macy Barber's six-fight win streak. Now that, that's a stat.

There you go, buddy. That's how we do it. Dude. Damn, just absolutely ludicrous. But she was supposed to do some other fistfight. You know, that was a thing that was supposed to happen for earlier this year back in May. She was supposed to take on Aaron Blanchfield at UFC, Vegas something. one-o-something on the posters and everything and then she falls out the day of medical issues long

she's been having ongoing medical issues for a while and so it all went her fluffle she took some time off now she's competing koreen a silva lost to viviani or rujo but rebounded with the win over diani barbosa got revenge that was a rematch for her at ufc 319 in august and now welcoming macy barbara back to the cage uh i don't know what to make of this fight frankly luke korena sylva's never been an underdog so worth noting this will be her first time as a dog barbara seven and one is a favorite uh i have some thoughts but i'd love to hear years i mean dude barber been pretty inactive but you mentioned all the injuries and shit she's dealt with she has pulled out of four bouts during the six-fight win streak she's on so you know arguably

should have fought 10 times during this stretch maybe would have been a little closer to josh fan's entire stretch but uh anyways carina sylva you mentioned she's never been an under underdog dude she looked like a killer which is her nickname uh when she first came into the ufc first three wins coming by finish since then you mentioned she came up short to a rujo and then she the dioning babboza fight dude i feel like i don't remember if it was controversial but i feel like it was a close fight at least that like i was pretty underwhelmed with her in that fight if we look at the numbers here barbara kind of has the advantages everywhere which is kind of surprising uh she lands more than twice the amount of strikes per minute at sylva while

they both get hit about the same but sylva has a negative striking differential which is obviously never a good thing. She's actually been outstruck in four of her seven Zufa fights, which is wild because she's won six of those. They both like to mix up the wrestling, but Silva definitely relies on it way more than Macy does. Silva's defensive wrestling also is pretty terrible, dude, 11% takedown defense,

and she was taken down three times in each of her last two fights. Macy's takedown defense, much more reasonable, still not great, 53%, but she was taken down. Well, that's bad. Okay, but she was taken down in all. of her last six fights, and she won all six of those fights. So, like, whatever, she's getting back up. I'm a little worried about Macy's health issues.

I mean, who wouldn't be here, especially after that last fight with Aaron Blanchfield? Erin Blanchfield was in the cage, and Macy's like, not walking out here. So if it comes, if she comes in fully healthy here, I feel like she should get the W. I'm going to take her by decision. It was minus 110 last I looked. I'm going to try and wait and see if it moves to plus money as the week goes on. but if not, I'll throw it in a poorly. Nothing quite makes a holiday gathering pop like turning on the music.

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From the pitch to the sand and everything in between, welcome to our turf. I think the over two and a half is interesting here as a parlay piece. I'm not on it because I just didn't really want to pair it with something. I'm again, I'm taking an underdog. I'm on Criney Silva. The couple of reasons are, one, just genuinely concerned about where Barber is at physically, so many health issues. And so much of her game is predicated on athleticism and youthful vigor. And so I don't like, just physicality not being there is, we'll make her, it's not like she's a technical wizard.

Yeah. You know, so like if she doesn't have that because she's physically compromised or just not the same fighter, that's going to be really tough for her. And the ways we've seen Macy Barbara lose, Corrini Silva can do. Greenossova's not a great defensive fighter at all, but she is offensively potent. Can wrestle offensively can work on the ground. And, I mean, Macy Barbara has lost fights like that.

So given all the uncertainties about her and the price tag on Silva, taking a dog shot on her. We'll see how it goes. If I lose, I won't be shocked, but I think Criney Silva is very, very live in this contest. Let us carry on to, oh, I'm sorry, we're back. We're back to the lightweights, the middle section of the prelims, almost exclusively

lightweight bangers. So many, so many freaking bangers on this card. Nizim Sadiqov takes on for SZM in a fight nobody will talk about, but is probably going to be very, very good to top 30-ish lightweights combating each other. Sadiqov plus 114. Ziam, minus 135, Sadiqov 4-0 and 1 in the UFC, T-KO-O-N, Nicholas Mota in his most recent fight at UFC Baku back in June. Ziams on a five-fight winning streak took a unanimous decision over Mike Davis, a UFC Saudi Arabia, back in February.

To me, Luke, I'll just lead us off here. Very easy. This fight's super competitive. I think that you would be reasonable to just not place a wager at all. Just sit back and watch. But I think maybe the odds should be flipped. Sadiqav, I think, is just a more dangerous fighter. than Ziam. He throws much

harder. Obviously, many more finishes on his record. And I think he can bring a grappling threat, works at a higher volume. And so I just think the odds are inverted of what I would expect them to be, and so I'm on Tadikov as an underdog. All right. Hell yeah. I mean, I'm breaking it down a little

more, but pretty much the same here. I mean, Nas throws a lot. He lands almost six strikes per minute. Ziam, great striking defense. He only gets hit with two strikes per minute. But Nas also doesn't have great striking defense. He has a negative striking differential. We've seen him get hit clean before. I just feel like the volume of Nas is going to be enough here. In Ziam's nine UFC fights, the most significant strikes he's landed is 61. Naz's landed

more than 61 significant strikes in three of his five UFC fights. And while he's not really known for his wrestling, like you mentioned, he does have five takedowns in five UFC fights. And we've seen Ziam susceptible to takedowns in the past, having been taken down by seven of his nine UFC opponents and three plus times by three different opponents. Lastly, got to sprinkle. in a little MMA math here, Jed. Terrence McKinney subbed Farras Ziam by Rear Naked Choke. Then Nazim Siddikov sub Terrence McKinney by Rear Naked Choke. And honestly, as I'm saying this out loud, it would actually be way more hilarious

if Ziam sub Siddikov by Rear Naked Chokeh. And it's just this endless triangle of rear naked chos. Yeah. But either way, I'm riding with the Long Island trained Nazim Saddikov money line here. Got him at plus 114 as well, Jed. I didn't mention it, but I absolutely was also looking at the MMA math. I mean, one guy beat McKinney, one guy lost to him. Simple.

Bob's your uncle. That picked the other guy. Let's move on to a fight that got way more play on morning combat than I thought it would, frankly. Both Luke and B.C. were very excited to mention that Marvin Vittori is on the early prelims. And I guess that's true. Former middleweight challenger, Marvin Vittori is on the early prelims. So he takes on Bruno Faheta. He is a very slight favorite, close to pick a odds.

minus 118 for Vittori, minus 102 for Bruno Faheta. Vittori is on a three-fight losing streak right now. Luke coming off the unanimous decision loss to Brendan Allen at U.S.C. 318 in July. Meanwhile, Faheta, two-fight dubs, baby. Arm bar win over Jackson McVeigh at UFC 318. On that same card, they just matched up two middleweights that fought in July. Let's run it back. Votori, very slight.

favorite. Obviously a much more accomplished guy, Luke. Where are we out on on this fight? First of all, I have a bone to pick with Marvin Vittoria. I'm real like the guy's nickname is the Italian dream. I'm not going to knock the nickname, but talk about an opportunity missed here. The Martian? Marvin the Martian. And then why is that your nickname, Marvin? Because my chin is out of this world. Mike drop. We can just end the podcast right here. Anyways, I had the sound board with the whir-p-b-w-w-w-w-d-d-d-d. Anyways, this one's tricky to me, Jed.

Ferreira, Ferreira, Ferreira, Ferreira, never got in the distance. It's Ferreira. It's one of us. We'll call him Bruno. We don't talk about Bruno. He's never gone the distance before. Vittori, pretty much only goes the distance. That's all he does, dude.

But literally, all 16 of Ferreira's pro fights never got in the distance. And all 15, or sorry, 15 of Votry's 17 UFC fights have not, have gone that. the distance, including nine straight. If we look at their resumes, though, Ferreira only fought one current top 15 middleweight in his seven UFC fights, and it was number 15. Vitori's last seven fights all came to top 15 middleweight, so, you know, he is losing a lot, but he's also fighting the best of the best. Momentum, though, does feel like it's in Bruno's favor here, and Vittori could be fighting

for his job. I'm going to ride with the over two and a half in a parlay. I feel like if Vittori wins, we'll call it an upset, even though he's the favorite. If Vittori gets the upset, it's probably by decision. And if Bruno wins, I'm just trusting that, you know, the Martian's chin is out of this world, dude, and it'll go to a decision. First ever for Bruno. So I'm looking at two different things here, right? And one of them is, I haven't done it yet, but I'm interested in a no decision bet on Bruno Faheta.

So if it goes to decision, the best void. Because if Marvin wins, he's going to win a decision. And if Bruno wins, it means that Marvin's chint is finally folded. And so you can just get a pretty safe thing. The price isn't great, though. Right now in the offshores, it's like minus 260. Still not bad because you basically have a floor of, I just get my money back. But something I'm at least investigating because I am going to be on Bruno Faheta

as the very slight underdog. I'm going to wait and hope he gets to a little bit better of a price with a plus beside his name, basically is all I'm looking for. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Marvin Vittori's, I mean, an all-time great Chen might be starting to crack. And I don't know necessarily that Faheda will finish him because he's, I mean, Vittori's just got a big old blockhead.

If Vittori was at his peak, right, like this is, the same calculus as Suhudo, is Vitori shot? Because if he's not, they're both on three-fight losing streaks, and if this was peak Vittori, he is like a uniquely awful style matchup for Bruno Faheda. But he's just not looked good lately, right? And even if maybe Faheda can't get him out of there, if he just throws really hard,

you might just win the exchanges, a la Jared Cannonier. Jared Cannier. Jared Cannier beat Marvin Vittori just throwing really hard, basically, because Marvin Vittori doesn't know how to punch hard. So feel a little risky, but I'm riding with Bruno Farahara. I wanted to get to a plus number. I think he will because Vittori is a much more known commodity. So I think some money will come in on him.

We can get a plus money, and I will be riding with the Hulk. Back to the lightweights, Edson Barbosa, taking on Jalen Turner, one of the weirdest fights of the year. Not the weirdest fight of the year, because we just saw Jackermanston compete at Walterweight against the lightweight. But, you know, this is also a very weird fight. As Edson Barbosa takes on the unretiring Jalen Turner. Barbosa, sizable underdog plus 240. Jalen Turner, minus 265. Mabosa just moved back up to lightweight where he lost to Jokkar close.

Turner, one in four of his past five, also retired in March, then decided, no, I'm good. I believe though I wouldn't bet my life on it. I believe he, uh, there's some sort of religious. peace to his return. He has found peace through religion. But I don't 100% know as I haven't watched all the interviews. But he's back. Most recently he lost Ignacio Bahamondez, a UFC 313. Very strange fight. How do you see it going? Dude, I just want to talk about his retirement real quick, because not only was it only like, you know, since March, but there was rumors, shout out of boys in the back. They like broke that Jalen Turner was coming out of retirement like four months ago. So how long was

this retirement really like three months four months it's it's a little ridiculous but you know mma retirements are what they are uh my thought process for this fight was immediately like oh dude i'm taking edson all day my thought process doesn't really back up how the striking numbers look here edson does have a negative striking differential turner lands more strikes per minute but i feel like this a good matchup for edson despite turner being a giant at lightweight it only equates to two inch reach advantage also worth noting against gamrot and and Dan Hooker, Turner was outstruck in every round with leg kicks. And we all know Edson's got these nasty kicks.

And against the tall, lanky Turner, he can chop away at that lead leg, dude. Majority of Edson's pro wins have come by K-O. Turner's been K-Oed four times before. And he's coming out of retirement in which he probably was not training as much as he should have, regardless of what the reasoning was. I think I'll take a single on Edson at plus 240 here. But I'm also going to wait and take a spread bet with him, probably throw it in a parlay. I feel like he could steal a round, assuming it goes to the distance.

I don't think this is going the distance. I've been a long time Jalen Turner Stan. I officially revoked my citizenship to Jailen Turner Island with the Bahamonday's loss. He's like, oh, he's just done. I think he should move up to Walterway, frankly, but, you know, I can't. There's still a piece of me that will always love him. And against Edson Barbosa, a guy who just needs to retire. He just needs...

I love Edson Barbosa. He has a legitimate argument to having fought the most difficult resume in the history of the sport. The kid is look at the dudes he's fought. It is categorically insane. He didn't win a lot of those fights,

but man, he fought a lot of the best dudes of multiple generations. He is naturally smaller person. He is much more shop-worn than Jalen Turner at this point. And if Jalen Turner, you know, is revitalized, basically this retirement feels like a mental break because whatever if he's back to being in a good place

he has a dynamic violent offensive game that should put edson barbosa down because barbara like again if barbosa was at his peak this is very interesting i think barbosa's just really close to fully blown shot and uh i'm going to ride with turner i have him in a two-leg parlay with another person coming up in just a moment all right That person is Ewo Baranuski, as he takes on Ebo, Aslan, in our very next fighting late heavyweight contest, Baranuski minus 190 to come back on Aslin plus 165 or so. This is Ewo's UFC debut coming off contender series, and Ebo on a two-fight losing streak after winning a few fights coming off contender series. He lost to Billy Licana in July at UC Abu Dhabi.

This is most recent contest. How do you feel about this one, Luke? Well, all right, first of all, I want to say Baranuski's win on Contender Series came to Muhammad Ali, you know, shout out to beating Muhammad Ali in the year 2025. It's a big win. It's a big win. Dude, truth be told, I did a deep dive on his 6-0 record thinking,

I'm going to fraud check this guy so quick. Like, who is he fought? Turns out, I ended up fraud-checking Aseland in the process. Yep. Going into his UFC debut, Baranowski's opponents' records were combined. 211. Solid record. Solid record. Going into Aslan's UFC debut, his opponent's record were combined 59 and 62, so under 500 there. I'm also adding his contender series opponent, which heavily inflates those

numbers, makes them look a lot closer than they are. It was actually way worse. Also worth noting, both of Asselen's UFC wins came to guys that both went 0 and 4 in the promotion. So he's beaten guys that have never won a UFC fight before. I hate when a UFC debutante is a decent favorite but minus 185 that's really not that terrible i'm going to take him by finish whenever it drops barnowski that is uh it's probably going to be still be minus money so i'll probably parlay it all six of his pro wins have come by finish and asslon has been finished twice before yeah uh both these guys were contingency these guys i graded ass on is a pretty high prospect just because light heavyweight's a terrible division and he could kill people um

and he has not graded out well at all um he's just not very good Um, Ewo, I graded as a slightly worse prospect. I have him as a three star prospect from this season, but that star, like, migrating is entirely based on not watching their previous fights, but looking at their overall resume and their performance on the night. And it was like, he just killed the guy instantly. Like, there was nothing to learn from it. Um, but you dig into his resume.

See a little bit of thing. Like, he's got a big, long, decorated judo background as a junior. some international accomplishments in there. Had a pretty extensive AMI-MMA career. He's a guy who's pretty well set up to have some success. And Ibo Aslan's a glass cannon that doesn't even shoot that well anymore. Like he just, I think Baranussi's very likely to win this fight. So I parlayed him up with Jalen Turner because they were both just like kind of bigish favorites

and might as well, whatever. Two fights left. And I didn't want to parlay this guy. because he's too big a favorite, and this is a sanctioned murder. Mansour Abdul Malik, one of my boys, is taking on Antonio Tricoli

in a middleweight contest. Abdul Malik minus 1,000, biggest betting favorite on the card, Tricoli plus 650. Abdulamilik coming off like a weird draw against Cody Brundage that originally was a win, but it was a technical draw

because of I believe a headbutt. This was at USC Atlanta. I think it was a headbut if I remember correctly. that then got like overturned to a draw because they couldn't like you couldn't actually score the last round so it was just a super weird thing um but before that he'd killed two dudes he's probably gonna he wasn't killing cody brundage in the way everyone thought he was killing but he was probably going to win that fight but neither here nor there chikoli lost two in a row uh in the uc he's only two uc fights he got a guillotine choked by trayshon gore in november of last year this is This is a set-up fight, and I expect Mansour Abdul-Malik to set him up and knock him down. Yeah, I mean, dude, Tricoli, one win in the last seven years. Josh Van, you know, 15 wins in that time. So I'm just saying.

You mentioned Tricoli also lost two straight. I'll call it three straight. He did lose McKenzie Dern as well. Without getting too deep into it. Abdul-Malik. That was much better. If Duel Malik, K-O-Bet is inevitable. I mean, seven of his eight UFC wins have come by K-O.

Tricoli's been K-Oed twice before. At minus- 400. I don't think I could take it. I'm sorry, as much as I think it's going to happen. I'm instead, Jed, I think you're going to hate this, but I'm dabbling, baby, with the over one and a half at plus. Have fun.

Have fun. Live a little. But surprisingly, Abdul Malik hit it in three of his four Zufa fights. You wouldn't really think that, but he hits it. He's a patient murderer. Yeah. Tricoli hit it in eight of his last 11 fights. Granted, like, those three were, like, his last three fights, but either way, if you, if you just extended 11 fights, it's a nice number there.

Hit rate is enough for me to take a shot on it. Yeah, I just have nothing on this. I honestly thought about, this was the other thing I was debating climbing with was MAM by K.O. minus 400. I was like, that's kind of an insane thing to do, so I decided not to do it, but, like, he's going to win. And then we end with the whimper as actually kind of a dynamic, like an interesting featherweight fight to open. the proceedings. Myron Santos takes on Mohamed Naimov.

Myron Santos, the tough 32 winner, who is, I don't know what, what is he right now? Three and one in the UFC, something like that? Three and O. Three and O in the UFC, sorry. Unanimous decision win over Sadiq Yusuf back in May, which is a very good win, frankly, though it is Sadieke Yusuf moving up to feather, like this is a little interesting, but Nymov, five and won the promotion, two fight dubs in a row, unanimous decision win over Bogdan Grad at UFC Baku.

uh also cashed twice as an underdog and he's a pretty sizable one plus 220 Santos minus 260 how do you see this one going i mean naimov it's got a negative striking differential i never love that Santos lands more strikes per minute but nine moms actually looks like a good wrestler since his ufc debut he's taken down five straight opponents Santos was taken down four times in his last two fights including three times by francis marshall and like let's be real bro he lost that fight i don't know if anyone watch that controversial split decision he should be two and one in the ufc he's a solid striker i really haven't been that impressed with him so far in the ufc i don't know if it's worth taking a flyer on naimov money line but i definitely think he could steal around here i'm

going to take him with the spread whenever it drops it's probably minus money i'll throw it in a poor way uh i thought it was worth it and i took a shot on my own uh on mohamma naimov at plus two 20 let's go i for i mean all the stuff you outlined i haven't been that impressed with mine and Santos. Nymov is actually like, he's just an overachiever. He's a dude who just kind of is gritty can kind of win fights that you don't expect him to win. And that's just a big price tag on a guy who I thought lost, or not as, that wasn't his last fight, was it? Who I have to look at the schedule for, for, for, for, for Miron Santos. The Francis Marshall. The France won't know, no, no, because it was the city Cusuf.

But again, the Cidicusuf was weird. It was a lightweight fight. Like it was, I had just the whole thing's weird and conno hopefully is not like a good win to beat over a tough like in general if you bet against the tough winners you know once upon a time winning tough was meaningful now it means you probably weren't good enough to get on the contender series so like just bet against them and i'm off a guy who i bet against several times and punish me so i'm trying to go the other way we're going to ride him at plus 220 and that is it ladies and gentlemen that is ufc 323 Luke, do you have anything else to say to the people about this card or anything else? Um, hype for this card.

Guys, I'll be doing a full card watch along so you could join me for the first fight. And then you could switch over to Jed and Mike over at MMA fighting for the main card, even though I'll also be a lot for that, but you know, do what you will. Uh, also got prop quiz dropping Friday. And yeah, that's about it, Jed. Appreciate you having me on as soon. Oh, I have, I do have a bone to pick with you about prop quiz. Why, you got to put my shit out in the streets like this.

Today, you dropped a graphic ranking. do you drop the prop quiz rankings and like i know i'm bad but you don't need to be putting that out there for everybody to see you're a top 15 ranked player you know i'm gonna i'm gonna start adding some new faces in so like you know you're just still hold down that ranking i didn't mean any offense bad i just wanted everyone to know like where it was laid out i legitimately have because i've obviously reposted i've legitimately had friends who don't follow mma or my work be like wow you suck i was like thanks guys Yes, I'm not good at this.

I know Luke's getting a lot of shit for it because his average score is in the negatives. But, you know, that's pretty tough for him. It is what it is, guys. I'm better than Luke, at least. That is what it is. Thank you for joining us, Luke. Next week, we are on to the apex for the final event of the ESPN era. Gigacaze takes on Kevin Vallejo's because I'm pretty certain that something will happen

to prevent Brandon Rovalim and L. Cop from fighting, which is supposed to be the main event. but I'll believe those two dudes are fighting when the cage door closes with them both inside. Until then, thanks for tuning in. Enjoy UFC 323. Love y'all. Thank you.