MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Renan Ferreira upset Francis Ngannou in the PFL? Plus UFC Vegas 99 breakdowns

Episode Date: October 16, 2024

PFL's big weekend is finally here! This Saturday, PFL Superfights: Battle of the Giants takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, headlined by a lineal heavyweight title fight between Francis Ngannou and Renan Ferreira. The card also features a number of other marque matchups, including Cris Cyborg taking on Larissa Pacheco, and AJ McKee facing Paul Hughes. On top of that, there's also another UFC APEX card this week so No Bets barred is back to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by his Watch Party co-host Mike Heck to dive into all the MMA action this weekend. Topics discussed include Ferreira's chance to pull off the upset, Cyborg vs. Pacheco, other big fights from PFL, the UFC Vegas 99 main event between Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira, plus much more. Tune in for episode 104 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Mike Heck: @MikeHeck_JR Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's a, this is a record-breaking, history-making edition of your favorite gambling MMA podcast. I am speaking, of course, about the biggest event that could happen. PFL, Battle of the Giants, Super-Fynolds. super fights in Ganu versus Faheta, whatever the other names are. Knockout Chaos 2.0. That's right. The PFL big monster event is finally upon us.

And oh, by the way, there's also some UFC to talk about. So, given that, ladies in German, given that there's such a monumental event, you may have heard on other programs on the M.A. Fighting Network. Great network, by the way. We're going to be doing a watch party. And so since we're going to be doing a watch party, maybe not quite the same as our other watch parties, a digital watch party, but a watch party nonetheless.

And because we're doing a watch party, that means the man joining me this week is none other than the host of our very own watch party. A man who only really plays the ponies when there's a watch party involved. And so it felt like an opportune time to bring him back talking about the voice of MMAFighting.com. Mr. Mike, how you doing? What an introduction. Yes, there's only two times that I will play the ponies. One, well, maybe three. When Brandon Roy Valle is a significant underdog

when he shouldn't be as big of an underdog as he is, you got to take a little stab-y-stab. Worked out nice. Two is the watch party, and three is when I come on no-bets-barred. So now that we're doing a watch party, and I'm on no-bets-bard, that means double the bets.

So here we are. Double the bets. Double the activity. We got two events to talk about. And you know how the breakdown goes, guys. We're going to dive right on just a moment after tell you how we did at Vegas 98. Finished up a unit, Mike, so did okay. I was on the other side.

I had a Tetsu a Tiber by points bet because he's my boy and I wanted him to be free. Didn't work out, but cashed enough of the other bets. But a great tragedy happened. And we will speak about that great tragedy happening a little later in the show as we get to my new. favorite gimmick of No Bet's Bard. But until then, let's dive right in because I was joking, you know, teasing about it. But the biggest event this week is certainly the PFL. And that is almost never the case, maybe once in a blue moon that has been true.

And usually the PFL is an afterthought when we are doing these shows. But PFL supervites in Ganu Versa Veda, aka Battle of the Giants, Riyadh Season Presents. It's a damn good card, Mike. And the main card especially is very good. So I thought we'd start there. And I just want to start here. What's your level of excitement for a meaningful PFL event?

Don Davis is out here adding us in tweets, Mike. I'm just, I'm rooting for them, really. It's a good card. I'll be honest with you. It should be better. Like, the main card's really good. I was saying the entire time, once they announced that this fight was happening, and that we knew about Cyborg and Pacheco behind Ingano and Faheda,

and then we confirmed the McKee-Paul Hughes fight, that this needed to be their UFC 300. Every single name that anybody knows in the MMA space that fights for either promotion or is contracted to either promotion, Bellator or PFL needs to be on this card. We didn't get that here. And I was a little disappointed. I was a little disappointed.

Most of the fights on the main card, I think, are very, very good. The Hussein Katamagamea fight, we know why this fight is there. It's so that Hussein can absolutely obliterate pours the far motion. And he, according to the betting odds, he's around a minus 1,000 to do exactly that. But Agent McKee Paul Hughes. Yeah, AJ McKee Paul Hughes is a good fight. Cyborg Pacheco is a good fight. Ingana Ferre is very, very interesting.

Miles vary on Johnny Ebblin, Fabian Edwards too. I don't think we need to see this one. Yeah, things got a little heated with Johnny and Leon at the end of the first fight, but Johnny obliterated Fabian Edwards in that second or third round whenever that fight ended. And when we have a finish like that, we don't really need to see it again. Like, I don't need to see Alex Pereira fight Cleoil Roundtree again. We don't need to see it.

If it happened, I'd be much cooler with that than this rematch. But this is kind of where we're at. This is them trying to beef up the card a little bit. I'm cautiously optimistic that we're going to enjoy it, but this could have been better and should have been better. I agree. I mean, frankly, this is the top end is terrific, and the undercard is a collection of people you've never heard of that probably aren't going to be significant figures that are there for a variety of reasons, you know, appealing to local interests, etc., etc., you know it's sort of a classic bellator move frankly but for an event like this i would have hoped that they had frankly would have just stacked out that undercard a little more like when they tried to do

the champ versus champ thing and that thing was top to bottom pretty solid uh but they didn't but as a result of that mike we're not going to talk about the undercard here unless you have a specific bet some action you've got there i have no action on anything outside of the main card i briefly thought about putting Ralphian Stotz in a parlay. He is a monstrous favorite over Marcos Brenno. It just wasn't really worth it. I didn't care enough to do it. And the rest of it is a collection of things that I don't feel you need to be investing

your time in. So with that preamble out of the way, let's talk about the big enchilada this weekend. I am speaking, of course, about Francis and Gano making his long-awaited return. Not just to, I mean, I was going to say not to the UFC, but but to MMA in general, to the sport where he became famous. He is making his PFL debut the first time the smart cage will have ever seen such power will be Saturday in Riyadh. And he is a minus 300 thereabouts betting favorite over Hanam Fahedah, man who was the most recent

PFL heavyweight champion, a guy who is basically being billed as, look at this big, strong duty, he hits real hard, knockout chaos 2.0. I got a lot of questions about this fight, Mike, because I think we all do. It has been 33 months since Inganu last stepped in the cage. Now, granted, he's been doing some boxing in the interim here, but even prior to the boxing, long layoff with the shoulder recovery in the UFC negotiation. Then he comes and boxes Tyson Fury. We all know how that went.

And then most recently, the Anthony Joshua just obliteration that befell him, not to mention all the struggles in his personal life. And so my question here, Mike, outside of do you got any action is, is this line right? A couple of years ago, I think Francis would have been a much bigger favorite over a non-fahara, obviously, but given all that has happened in the past 12 months, not even 12, the last eight months, do you feel like maybe there's a little bit of value on Hennon? No, I don't.

I look, this, if Francis fights a fight filled with fight IQ, if he listens to the game plan that his team has put together, he should kill Henan Ferre. If I'm Francis and Ganu, I'm throwing one punch and then I'm tackling that man and I'm getting on top of him and just unloading with strikes on top of this guy. That's what I'm doing. And Henferr is no slouch on the ground, but he ain't great off his back. When you have a mountain of a man like Francis and Gano on top of you, who actually is a pretty decent, top position grappler, asked Cyril Gaon about that. He can do some damage, man. And after talking to Eric Nixick, it would not surprise me to see him land an early

take down and try to grind things out a little bit and find position. So, look, Francis has a ton of pressure on him. And it's not really fair pressure for anybody in this world to have to sort of carry the legacy of a 15-month-old child that you unfortunately lost. Like no parent ever should have to experience with this guy is experiencing. But he is saying all the right things. Talked about just quitting everything. But he didn't want his, he telling our own Jose Youngs, didn't want his son's death to mean nothing.

Didn't want his kid up in the afterlife to feel the responsibility of him causing Francis to quit combat sports, boxing, MMA, all of it. So he wants this to mean something. He wants this to, you know, provide some sort of context for the greater good. So that's a lot of pressure on its own. Number two, it's the pressure of the promotion on his shoulders too. Whether he realizes it or not, boy, he's got a ton of it in that regard. He's got to, he has to win. He has to win.

And I think you've said it multiple shows. You set it on the PFL roundtable. If Henan Ferrer beats Francis Inganu, if he goes out there and just obliterate him. If this giant knocks out the other giant, no one will care. They will care for a day, and then we'll then we'll be like, oh, UFC 308 is in six days. Nobody gives a shit. And he won't become a big star. He's not a guy you can market the promotion around. He's just not that guy. So you kind of need Francis to win this fight. So I think Francis fight's very smart. There is a real world this fight gets extended, which I'm waiting for some of these round props.

to drop, but the pick is Francis and Ghanu. I haven't landed on anything just yet. I might sprinkle on like round one or round two. I might even take a gander at Francis by submission just to have some fun with it. But Francis should win this fight even after a 33-month layoff. I think his striking is going to be better. Yes, her head in packs a punch. But one thing that Francis has done with this boxing adventure is he is a much better boxer.

now. He's a much crisper striker. He's much better defensively sad. Now, you might disagree with me after the Anthony Joshua fight, but overall, he just is. And Anthony Joshua is an absolute freak. So, yeah, Francis should win long story short. I think he will win. I think he will get him out of there.

Second or third round. There you go. Yeah, I, this to me is one of those fights where I think in the aftermath, when it is over, whatever the narrative you had before, if your narrative was right, you would be like, see, I told you so, to an extent that is rarely seen, whereas all the

things he is saying about the stuff that has happened in this year, if it powers him up to a grand victory, then I would be like, oh, we should have seen this coming. Conversely, if he goes out there and lays an egg, because he got brutally knocked out and he suffered a horrifying loss in his personal life, and he's just not quite there, and Hanan Fahara is dialed in, which I'll be like, yeah, I probably should have seen that coming. And I wanted honestly the line to be a little bit better on Henan, and I was going to take it for the lulls and just be like, it would be deeply funny if PFL signed this dude waited two years

and then he immediately gets knocked out in a win that will mean nothing. Because I do stand by that. I think if Hanfahara wins, the only time we'll think about it after next week is when Dana White brings it up in six months to talk trash about Francis retroactively again for whatever. reason. So I left it up to the chat GPT gods, Mike. I've been a while since I've gone to chat GPT. And I usually like to pick it when it's a very evenly contested fight because then I'm

just really letting it have the option. But I had a long conversation with chat GPT about this one. We talked a while back and forth, you know, really dove into what this matchup looks like. And in the end, Chat-T-PT said that Hanan Fahara has a real chance to win this. But its official prediction is that in the second round, Ngano lands an uppercut that connects flush with his chin. Doesn't put Fahara out, mind you, but does drop him and hammer fists from Ngano following up, get the finish in the second round, an emphatic return for the predator. So I've taken the bet because I believe in Chat-GPT,

six and three this year, doing a solid, robust, you know, roundabout effort for us. And that's enough of that. If there were props, I might have looked at some of them, but I feel comfortable with the minus 310 at this point.

Who cares? I just want to have some fun when we're doing the watch party on Saturday. So Inganu is the answer. A fight that is much, maybe not as interesting, but I certainly have several questions and arguably will be more competitive

the co-made event, Chris Cyborg taking on Larissa Pacheco, and your odds are very close to even right now. Cyborg is a slight underdog plus 115. The comeback on Pacheco minus 135, and before we even get into it, because I'll spoil it, I'm going to be taking Pacheco. I've bet on Pacheco already.

Mike, do you know the last time Chris Cyborg was an underdog? No. I don't. I believe, and I'm not a hundred percent sure that this is the case, but I dove through and was looking at it and wanted to just like really try and make sure I was right here. I believe it's never happened. I'm not 100% positive because some of the early fights in her career we couldn't quite get there, but she was the betting favorite over Amanda Nunes.

Obviously she has been a monstrous favorite in just about every other fist fight she has ever had. this, I believe, is the first time Chris Cyborg has ever been an underdog in her gamblable career. And it comes against Larissa Pacheco. And I frankly think the odds makers have it right. I would have Pacheco, maybe even as a slightly bigger favorite than this, honestly. Cyborg is damn near 40 years old. Her last quote unquote meaningful win was Julia Budd.

That was 2020. Since then it's been the story of Cyborg's career. A lot of that, not her fault, mind you, but there aren't, women's featherweight isn't a really sustainable weight class at this point in time. And so she's largely beaten up undersized women or women who are very not, not all that talented. And so Pacheco is the first fighter she's fought since Julia Budd, who is a true featherweight and has real talent. And I would say that Pacheco is certainly this stage of his career, her career, much better than Bud.

and just given the age, given kind of where their careers are. Cyborg, I am honestly surprised she took this fight in the first place. I thought she was just going to quietly leave M.MA and do the boxing thing. It seems to make her happy.

But she has accepted it, credit to her, but I think it is going to not work out well for her I am on Pacheco at minus 130. I haven't placed a bet yet. And I think the biggest reason is I'm curious to see how big of a dog. cyborg can get two.

Like if she gets to like plus 140, I'm probably going to take a shot on her. You know what I mean? Because I do think, I think this is lined perfectly. But for me to take a side, like I'm not 100%, I'm not as confident as you are about Pacheco winning this fight.

I feel like if we have to pick it 50-50, like on our staff picks, I'm probably going to pick Pacheco. But I feel way less confident about a Pacheco win than I, do a Francis and Ghana win right now. I just think Chris is still good. And I, to this day,

I don't know how good Larissa Pacheco is. I don't know. She is just steamrolling everybody she fights. Yes, she beat Kayla. That was an incredibly close fight. She also lost to Kayla twice. So I still have like a lot of lingering questions about how good Pacheco actually is. And I think she's good.

But is she better than Chris? even that Chris's experience at her advanced age, respectfully, I don't know. So I'm going to wait and see whether or not money comes in on Chris and Pacheco becomes the dog or if just a ton of money comes on Pacheco and she ends up like in a plus 130 plus 140 range. And I just might take a little stab on Cyborg at plus 130 or plus 140. So I'm staying away as of now. Maybe there'll be a round prop. I do think this one goes pretty long.

So there might be like a over one and a half parlay piece in play at some point, but we got to wait for those to drop. Yeah, this is, I mean, the main event is obviously the fight I'm the most excited for just because we haven't seen Francis in forever. But this is the fight this weekend other than the UFC main event. And if I really got to pick one just on the merits of it, it would be this one just because I, if nothing else, we finally get to see both of these women fight against real opposition, which is a very rare opportunity for them.

And I want to see if Chris Seaborg still has gas left in the tank at 39 when she's fighting somebody who can stand up and fight back. So very good fight. And we move right along to Johnny Eblen taking on Fabian Edwards. As you mentioned, it's a rematch of a fight that happened about a year ago. Eblen, a considerable favorite minus 400, taking on Edwards plus 300. Mike, do you have any action on this one? Not yet, but as soon as Johnny Eblen inside the distance drops, I'm jumping all over it.

It'll be my biggest bet of the card. I just don't think Fabian's great. He's fine. But for two rounds, he was very good against Eblen for two whole rounds. Home territory, all that. He got killed. Yeah, and then he got wrecked. I think Johnny, I mean, look, Johnny didn't look spectacular against Impakisang and I,

and I think part of that is Johnny had an off night, but I also think the other part is if Icassiganai is better than people think he is, despite being a millionaire. So I don't see this fight going any differently. I think Eblen didn't have his fastball in that first fight. I think he's certainly going to have it this one. He's got some points to prove. And I just don't think Fabian Edwards after holding Aaron Jeffrey against a cage wall for 15 minutes. is going to show me enough to thwart Johnny Eblen in his overall game,

especially his finishing ability. So yeah, whatever that lands, probably like minus 185, minus 200 or something like that. Don't care. Take it it. I will say that outside of, you know, obviously Francis has an enormous amount to lose in the main event, I think Johnny Eblend is the guy who has the most to prove this weekend. Because his last couple of fights, like, I agree. Impikasanga and I is just a much better fighter than I think people are willing to give credit to.

But his last two fights, the first Fabian Edward fights, he struggled at the start before really turned it on. In Pekasangana I fight, very close fight. Many people thought he didn't deserve to win. I thought he won, but like a really, really close fight. Even before that, you know, like we were all very high on him after beating Gagard Musassi because Gagard Musasi has an aura, but looking back, you can maybe say, okay, Eblen's obviously good. Gagarin Musassi was clearly old, and then he beat Anatoly Tokov, but again, just kind of a professional

decision. He needs a standout performance in a no-butts about it kind of way here. And I would be interested to see, to see if he has that in him, if he is kind of just an autopilot while he is waiting to get an opportunity to, you know, join Sean Strickland and guys that he knows over in the UFC or where he's at. But I would very much like to see a Sterling performance because, Mike, this is the bet. This is the climb. So I have mentioned this on previous episodes.

I mentioned this to you at our last watch party. But the climb, for those who are new here or have never heard of the climb, the climb is my new endeavor and it's my new obsession frankly i think about it all the time and what it is it's that somebody on ticot had the bright idea the bright discovery that if you chain 28 and by 28 i actually mean 30ish minus 500 bets together and two functionally a 30 team parley you can turn a hundred into almost $30,000. It's an unbelievable thing because you can't do it. 30-leg parleyes don't happen.

But if you break them up into step-by-step-by-step instead of all parleyes on one weekend, then it gets a little more exciting. And so this is the climb. Like the great Edmund Hillary before us, we are going to summit these 30 steps to get to the magical $29,000 foot slash dollar mark. we were already on our journey and last week we fell apart because freaking Grant Dawson decided to finish somebody for the first time in a century why don't you just take I listened to that episode why didn't you just take Grant straight up

because it's like it's a hundred percent going over one and a half there's like Garcia just never been finished and Grant like Grant Dawson said his postseason that guy's never been finished and Grant Dawson isn't a finisher. I was more confident that that fight was going over one and a half than I wasn't Grant Dawson winning. And I thought Grant Dawson was going to win, but I was certain that this fight was going to last longer than seven and a half minutes.

And so our climb ended after one successful step up. We took a wrong step. We slid back down the mountain. And now like Sisyphus before us, we dust ourselves off and we start pushing that boulder back up the hill. And we start right here. with Johnny Eblen. So this is the first of what hopes to be 30 successful steps upward

until we get to the top. So this is our climb bet for the week. Johnny Eblund, please don't let me down. I'd like to get a little further in the climb than one step. So. And that brings us to, frankly, the last main card fight that is meaningful that I care to speak about. And it is, of course, the Agent McKeepal-Hugh's matchup.

McKee, former Bellator Featherweight champion, sorry, is a minus 165 favorite over Paul Hughes, who is plus 145. And I'll just get this out of the way very quickly. I'm on A.J. McKee here. I think this fight is an exceptional

fight. This is a sort of fight I wanted more of on this card as a whole. I really like Paul Hughes and what Paul Hughes can be. He's still only 26 years old. But I think A.J. McKee's a little more polished. I think he's just the superior grappler he's going to be able to score takedowns use that to control this fight and uh compete on

the feet get the get the win on the floor i just think a j mckee is an exceptional fighter and paul hughes still got a little bit of of growing to do in this regard so i'm on a jim mckee i got him at minus 160 and uh those are my four pfl bets but mike do you have anything for this one i in preparation for this program i went and looked at the odds for this fight because i was like, all right, AJ B. Key is going to be like a minus 275. That just makes sense. And this is no disrespect to Paul Hughes. This is just what AJ has accomplished, the level of competition, et cetera.

And then I saw him at minus 160. And I was like, yeah, we're going to go ahead and place a big wager on this. Because again, this is no disrespect to Paul Hughes. And I think Paul Hughes is probably going to win a million dollars at least once for the PFL before eventually once it becomes somewhat of a name running off to the UFC, much like Dakota Ditchiva is going to do when she gets there as well AJ's has been

with better competition and Paul will get there it's just not going to be now I think getting him in minus 160 and maybe I'll eat my words and I'm happy to do so is a steal like this is a steal to me

this is this is it's not exactly the same but this is Dustin Poria versus Benoit Santini I was very confident Dustin Porea was going to win that fight even though Santini a monster. I was just like, man, just sometimes you just got us, when you get that step up,

you just get gritted out by the, by the vet. And AJ's not like 35 years old and hasn't fought for a million belts, fought for some, but AJ's just been in there with everybody. He could finish you in so many different ways. He could knock Paul Hughes out. He could tap Paul Hughes. You could do so many different things. I think he's more athletic. He's bigger. He's stronger. All those attributes. This just seems minus 160, just, unless I'm getting trapped here, because a lot of my money has come in on Paul Hughes this week. I'm going AJ McKee, pretty confident. A lot of Paul Hughes backers out there, man.

A lot of them. They think that now we're about to find out. I don't know. If so, easily the best one of Paul Hughes's career. And I mean, I don't know if it makes him a star because I don't know if AJ McKee's that level of star to get people over. But certainly for the hardcore fans, the people tuning in, Paul Hughes will be the big, like one of the biggest things PFL ator has going for it.

So before we move on to the UFC, do you have anything on the rest of this undercard? Because I have nothing. I, like I said, I'm just not going to take stabs in any of the rest of this. No. I mean, I'm, I don't know. I'm waiting, again, I'm waiting to see what the Stats, Braino props are. Like, that fight just doesn't go to decision. Because I think either Brano is going to get tapped or, or Stats is going to get knocked out.

it's just one of those kinds of fights. And I feel like if Danny Sabs can do some tapping, then I think Raphaon Stott certainly could do so. So yeah, I think I'll probably play like an under on that one. But again, without seeing a prop, nothing really to it. And then the rest of these fights, I, this is nothing really there. Nothing there, which is perfect.

I mean, we're a solid chunk in. We'll take a quick break and then we'll just hop on over to the UFC and fire through this. you know, get home, let the viewers go about their day. And we're back. And we're back for the UFC. You see Vegas 99, Mike. We inch ever closer to the UFC Apex 100.

The apex of all events is what that will be. Couldn't be more excited to watch Hineer to Hidney A. A.E.D. Hout. Shout-outs to the great A.K. Lee. and let's let's call this fight card what it is it's a fight card it is one that is happening of all the apex fight cards last week was a a very tough fight card to cover this week maybe not even to cover but in the lead-up i think i gave it two fights above replacement this is exactly that same number maybe oh you're insane this is way better than last week for a number of reasons it is better but

it's they're not that many okay I guess three because I wasn't counting Nicolao and Biav so we're like three maybe three and a half but it's not amazing but it is solid and the main event Mike the main event is terrific Anthony Fluffy Hernandez

taking on Michelle Pereira my boy Paheta Fluffy small favorite minus 135 over Paheta who's plus 115 thereabouts and uh Mike where are you at on this one?

I'm going to turn this to you, Jed, because I'm torn. I know where you're going with this. And I want to know why. Why should I take... I'm leaning the dog right now because Michelle's just been on such a run, even though Fluffy is just so dangerous

and if this fight goes past two and a half, this fight goes late into round two, Hernandez is going to kill this guy. So tell me why Michelle Pereira is the one to I mean, objectively, you should not bet on him because everyone that's on my fantasy team that I was excited about, literally every, the only people on my fantasy team who I was not enthusiastic about and drafted them to be quote unquote smart. Those people won. Joaquin Buckley and Giuliana Pena are the only people on my fantasy team who have scored wins.

and I wasn't even excited about drafting them. I was excited about drafting everybody else and they have all lost. So almost certainly you should just go ahead and back Fluffy. But I'm back of my boys. I'm a fantasy squad and I picked him for a very simple reason. He's dope. I have always, me and AK were big Peretta fans prior to even getting signed in the UFC back when he was doing nonsense, pro wrestling flips and redact.

ridiculous stuff in his fights. And then he came to the U.C. and started doing that. And then he gassed out because he couldn't make well to wait. A couple of tough performances. And then kind of dialed it back. But it sort of found a balance of having some silliness while also just being exceptional. And mostly since moving back to middleweight last year, three and O, three performance bonuses, three finishes in roughly one minute.

His finish, he knocked out Andre Petroski in a minute in six seconds. He knocked out Mikhailo Lik Sechuk in a minute in one second. And he submitted Ijo Potierea in 54 seconds. Like he is just barnstormed up the middleweight division right now. And most importantly, like Fluffy is easily the best guy he's fought in this run. Fluffy really, really, really wants to get you down and get his grapples going. He's extremely good at it. Joe Paheta is extremely good at not getting taken down.

He's given up one takedown in his UFC career, 18 total seconds of control time that went to Santiago Ponsinibio, up at middleweight. He's not making that heavyweight cut anymore. I think he just feels better. He can compete longer. He's got the knockout power. He has the flash with the substance now.

His game is just coming together well. And I think if he can avoid the takedowns, he should be able to win this fight. And so I've supported my boy, my fantasy picks. I'm supporting him with my hard-earned American dollars. I've bet him at plus 115. You said a lot of very interesting things there, and I liked all of them. But then you said one thing that put me over the edge, shed. One thing that got me over the line to make a decision.

And it was early on in your ramp because you said that Michelle Pereira is on your fantasy team. Yeah. And it's a no-brainer. They've literally just sent out the message to place the bet on Anthony Hernandez and minus 1.35. Yeah. Yeah, look, it's totally reasonable. My fantasy team is historically bad. It is impressive the level of failure.

Like, at this point, I am just frankly rooting for all of your team to no longer fight. It's just everyone that is on your team to pull out of their fights by the end of the year. So, uh, did you take you have Wiley Shang? No, it's A.K. No, A.K. is Jocelyn Amram. I think you have Wiley Zhang. I'm looking at your list right now. Did I pick John? I think you picked her for your straw weight because I think you took her last and there was no one around.

Oh, yeah, I did. Okay, so she may in fact deliver a goose. Yeah, she, she probably does. Uh, I need everyone that you draft to just not. I still get three. I'm still getting the agreed upon 300 points for Jose Al-Oh, that's true. We do have the Aldo points coming in. But yeah, the Fantasy Squad has been poor, so I think fading them is a very reasonable choice.

And speaking of fading, or co-main event, I'll call it a co-main event this weekend. I think this is above a replacement tussle. Rob Font taking on Kyler Phillips, Rob Font, plus 325, a massive underdog. Kyleor Phillips minus 450 huge favorite coming off that Pedro Munoz win Mike are you are you backing Rob Font

at such hefty odds or has the chicken flown the coop for a man I once thought might be the best band of weight in the world Of course I am I already switched hats at everything I got it at plus 350 and yeah I did

this fight should not be this wide Like, Kyler Phillips is a good fighter, but Rob Fawn should not be a plus 350 underdog to mostly anybody in this division. I'm sorry, he just shouldn't be. And Rob's taking this camp very seriously. He's gone to a lot of different places, trained with Farrasah Hobby for a hot minute, which I thought was a very good idea preparing for a guy like Kyler Phillips. And Rob is the better striker here. He's the better boxer. And Kyler is weird and athletic and does a lot of strange things.

the last time he was in there with the guy who was weird and awkward did a lot of strange things who was an up-and-comer who people had extremely high hopes for. Rob bolted him real bad in Miami, Florida. His name was Adrian Yanez. So I think Rob still got something. I don't think he's going to go fight for a belt or anything. But he was like plus 180. I wouldn't touch this. But you're giving me plus 350 on Rob Font in a fight that is not completely unwinnable. I think he could do it. So give me Rob plus 350. It's a value play and plus there's a little bit in New England bias attached as well. I can't lie to America. It's a big number. I looked at the number and was briefly tempted. But the fact that Rob is, you know, outside of the Yanyes's fight, or he's lost

four out of his last five, the lone win being that Yanyes win, great win. And top top opposition, but still 37 years old, you got to wonder how much he's got left. I decided I had to stay away from picking his side because instead what we've opted to do here is I'm taking the over one and a half in this fight. It's minus 400. Font has been finished once. He got submitted by

Danny Gay. He got submitted by somebody, but I don't remember who it is. Maybe it was Pedro Munoz, actually. Phillips is not a huge finisher. Phillips has never been finished. If Font comes out and lamps him like he did Janias, okay, but but Phillips doesn't really fight in the same sort of,

with the same reckless abandon Yanyes does. So I think this fight's going a little longer. I think over one and a half minus 400. Simple. It is the, I have a two-leg, very chalky parlay. That will be the first leg of it.

Moving right along. We'll probably breeze through a lot of the rest of these because I don't have that much to say about many of these fights. Next one being a flyweight contest between Charles Johnson and Sumadairji, Johnson, minus two 10 favorite. Sumidairji plus 180 on the comeback. And Mike, I got to be honest with you. I don't know what to make of this fight.

I don't feel like I have a great read on this fight. I wouldn't like Charles Johnson. Then Charles Johnson's put together some pretty decent performances. The win over Josh Van last time out. Like, that's just a rock solid performance and win. The only thing that I am confident in is that if I bet on Charles Johnson or a Charles Johnson fight, I will be wrong. because the man ruined Flyweight Unders and then I was like Josh Fan's going to get him

and then he ruined that I just if I've got money in this in a fight where Charles Johnson is that money I might as well light it on fire because I'm never seeing it again so I've stayed away what about you? Oh I see some props coming in

how about that? Let me see where I'm at. I'm going to pick Charles Johnson I'm going to pick Charles Johnson by some kind of finish here I mean, Sumadherj gets finished. He sure does. It's a thing that he does.

When he loses, he gets submitted. So I would suggest if you're picking a finish, all six of his career losses have come by submission. You know what? So this is what I'm going to do. I'm shocked that this is plus money. I'm going to take, let me just type it in. I'm going to take

fight doesn't go to decision at plus 138 that's what I'm going with then it gives you a little room for error because either way it's fighting going to the cards I'm sorry I know he's Charles Johnson was an enemy

of the flyweight undernation but he has certainly turned that around he's healthy he's in a much better place he doesn't have like torn ligaments in his hands anymore so now you just chuck him this guy is

this guy's doing everything possible to get over as a flyweight because Jedd what have you been saying for years how do you get over in today's UFC fight all the time and that's what he's doing and not only is he fighting all the time he's winning all the time and all of his fights are fun as shit so I'm going uh bonuses last few times out like he's he's doing the thing man so I'm going to fight doesn't go plus 138 give me a little room for error

uh I mean I love it I won't be betting it because as soon as I put the money down, it would curse the bet. And I don't want to cost you money like that. You now have a chance to win because I am selflessly avoiding this fight. So good luck to you. And we press on to Brady Heistin, taking on Jake Hadley, a bantamweight contest. Highstand is a minus 150 favorite. Come back on Hadley at plus 130.

And Mike, I'm glad to your previous point about thinking, like, okay, this agent McKee, here's what the line will be. I'm going to go take a bet on it. I felt that way with this fight. Because Brady Highstand, I think, is just a better fighter than Jake Hadley. Like, I expected this line to be bigger. Hadley, also, shout out to my guy Hadley, a guy who moves up from Flatway and still misses weight.

What an absolute hero. Love guys who do that. But I think it's very simple that highstand is. He's not a world beater, but he's been rock solid since coming off tough. Just super solid performances, getting wins over reasonable opposition. Should be the slightly bigger fellow in there, assuming Hadley does make weight. And should just have the run of play. He should be able to score takedowns pretty much at will.

And I don't, I think he Hadley won't really catch him in anything. So I just took high stand. I thought he should be a minus 200 favorite in this fight. I think you're getting some clear value here. and feel good about the bet. I am going to pass on this one because I feel similar, but man, Jake,

look, Jake took that fight on like a week's notice, even at 35 and still missed weight, but he looked damn good at 35. I didn't see that coming, but Brady's performance. I believe you looked real good at 37. At 37. And you know what?

If Jake, heed my words, you're not going to, I mean, what, What's 20% at the money you're making right now? Ain't shit. I think you should weigh 138. Honestly, reasonable. Step it up a little bit, dude.

Go get it. You lose 20%, but the win bonus will be a nice little cushion for that. Having said that, what Brady Highstand did to Garrett Armfield was incredibly impressive. Garrett Arnfield, I'm very high on. I was one of the few that introduced the Garrett Armfield story to the MMA fighting listeners when he made his short notice debut. Up Away class against David Onama, who was destroying everybody at the time. went in there and gave that man hell.

He had his Khalil roundtree moment before eventually he just got Onomid out there. So Brady's a really good fighter. I'm very high on him. And to go out there and finish him the way that Brady did to battle through adversity in a super fun fight to get it done. Kids got heart, man. So I think my pick is Brady high stand. But Jake Hadley is so unpredictable that I just, I can't do it.

I mean, that's okay. I will high stand alone in this one. But I'm bum. Very good. And we'll just keep right on rolling. I think this is the final main card fight. Darren Elkins taking on... Oh, no, no.

Surely we also have... Oh, no, looking at topology, Nicola L'O and V is not the main card. Only 11 fights on this card. It's tremendous. We do respect that. But I'm sorry, I got sidetracked. The final main car fight of the evening,

Darren Elkins, taking on Daniel Paneda, Elkins, a minus 105. slight underdog, basically pick-em, Panetta minus 115-ish. We're looking, depending on where you get, this is a stone pick-um. And Mike, what the hell do we make of this fight? And Daniel Paneda in general. I don't know. This is just a weird one.

I think, I think my pick, as of right now, because there are no props for this, I don't think this one's going to the cards. Either Panada is just going to kill them in the first five minutes, or it's going to be a grind and Elkins kind of comes back and gets it done. But I backed Panetta in his last fight because he's, I just thought he was a way, he was way better than the line suggests. But this one's kind of 50-50. So I guess if I'm picking, I'm leaning Paneda slightly.

But I think if I do place a bet on this, it's going to be another, another violence one where this fight doesn't go to the card. So just waiting for that line. to drop before I make a decision. But as far as aside, I'm probably not going to take any side here. Yeah, I have no idea what the hell is going to happen in this fight. Paneda was like marginally impressive in PFL and then you got pop for PEDs and hasn't beaten anybody meaningful since and has just lost all the like quality fighters he's faced.

Darren Elkins is also 40 though. And so like, I don't know. In my head, Darren Elkins should be able to score a bunch of takedowns win this fight. I think this fight is lying the way it is because Vegas doesn't know what the hell is going on and neither do I. And so I am just hands off on this one. Which means we move on down to the prelims in just one moment because we're going to take a final break right now because we got to pay some bills. And then we'll wrap it up with six fights left and get the hell out of here. We are back.

And it's on to the prelims, Mike. And this is a very, very, very good fight. This is an exceptional fight that no one's going to talk about or care about, and somehow got buried on the prelims despite arguably being the best fight this weekend. Mateus Nikolao, taking on Asu Amabayev, a flyweight contest. The fact that this fight is given less credit than other flyweight contests on this card is ridiculous. I think they're both ranked in the UFC rankings. And Nikolao is a moderate underdog, plus 150 Amabayev, the Kazakh,

fighter getting a lot of love minus 175 and mike most importantly amel biiv is on your best friends fantasy team that is right a k has alma biav in his flyweight spot so do you think a k is about to have a good saturday yes yes i do i like bettas nicolal out a lot he's fun as hell one of the more underrated fly weights in the last decade in the ufc but he's 31 going on 50 man he just i can't believe he's 31 if you told me he was 38 i'd be like yeah you're absolutely right about that uh he got deaded pretty bad in his last two fights and i didn't really love i don't really love what i've seen from him as of late amabayev is just super talented man guys real good he's 30 he's just getting into his athletic prime and he hasn't been really tested to the

point of matthias nicola so i do have some concerns there because his best win in the UFC is probably O'Day Osborne and all in all, it's not like a spectacular win. This is a big step up for him. To go from Jose Johnson to Mateus Nicolao is a big ass step up. But I think minus 170 is value for Asu al-Mabayev, considering how high of a ceiling I think he has. Is he going to fight for the belt in 2025?

No, because it's going to take him forever to get there because of the star power. But I think he's going to go in there and be a lot of. beat Nicolao. I don't think this fight's going to be all that close. And probably at 3027, across the board, gets it done. I do think Olmeviyev's going to win. I love this fight. I think this is an exceptional matchmaking because while Nicolao has looked a little tough lately, one of his great strengths does not get taken down. Tim Elliott basically went Ofer against him. I think he got one take down in 10 or 11 attempts, something extreme. All of I have, obviously, I think he's a better

a wrestler and wants to do that, but we're going to see him kind of have to theoretically dig into his bag of tricks and kind of prove that, hey, I am very, very good, which I think he will do. But, or I've done, Mike, instead of betting on Mabaya, though I think you can get some value there, like you said, I decided to take a little riskier play for a little more fun because do you know how many times Mateus Nicolao has lost in his career? The answer is four. do you know how he has lost? It's all by knockout, Mike.

Four losses, four knockouts. Amabayev not really a knockout artist in that way. And so you're getting an enormous price plus 900 for Osama Bhav by KOTKO. I think, obviously, if you're just looking to be a responsible, reasonable better, I would just bet Amabayev straight. I didn't want to have double exposure on this fight though, so I instead decided plus 900, just take a little quarter unit flyer. Maybe it's a TKO grounded pound stoppage.

Maybe he shows some hands we haven't seen from him before. But Nicolao loses in one specific way. Let's bet on that and see how it goes. And if I'm right, AK, get a lot of points. Terrific for his fantasy squad. Here's a message for all the haters out there, for all the, I'm smarter than you at everything. Maybe you are.

But I'm going to tell you right now, nobody on planet earth is going to have more fun watching that fight than Jed for placing this bet. Nobody. It's going to be electric. I'm going to be so excited. If it gets even remotely close, it's like, hell yeah, plus 900,

suck it losers. But we'll see. You know, it's a plus 900. You can't expect to win, but it'd be quite fun if it paid off. Moving on, though, another of AK's favorites. Brad Cotonah.

that is right Mr. Ultimate Fighter himself. I forget the name that they coined for him as the repeat, the only repeat Ultimate Fighter champion, but he's taking on my guy Gene Matsumoto and this would be very simple, very straightforward

for me, Mike, and I'll let you have your day. I'm back in Gene Matsumoto because he was one of my big Pauls and a puppy contenders in the 2023 contender series run. Those, as you may know if you've kept up with it, or 16 and 2. If you count last week, I added another guy to, not yet, because the piece will come out

this Thursday, breaking down the latest contender series people. But last week, my boy, Cody Haddon, who will be in that big pause to sort of top tier prospects also picked a boy in, 17 and 2 for my favorite prospects off contender series. I'm just going to keep riding it until the wheels fall off. Cotono comes in, does Brad Cotona thing, scores takedowns. It'll be boring and a bummer, but really like Jim Monsomoto, I think he's got a bright, bright future. I think he gets the dub on Saturday.

Yeah, you're probably right. I'm just going to, I'll roof for you from afar because I ain't touching this one. Brad Cotona just, he could slog this thing out very easily. He could turn all over him. Yeah, and I just, if I was to bet it, it would be. I would have to bet Catona. And I just, sorry, A.K., sorry, Canada. I just, I can't force myself to put myself in that kind of position.

Because while you're going to have so much fun watching Almibia fight with that prop, I would be miserable with the Brad Katona bet. So I'm staying away. Look, I understand. No one wants to be betting against Brad Katona. Because when you lose, it's a painful loss. You feel all 15 minutes of that loss coming, and it's unfortunate. moving on though at women's bannamoy contest jocelyn edwards taking on tamirs vidal

edwards your favorite minus 250 to come back on vidal plus 210 and uh mike this is the actual final bet i have on the card very simply put i have taken the over one and a half in this contest it's parlayed up or it will be parlayed up that that a line had not dropped at the time we started recording but i intend to parlay that up with the font phillips over one and a half And it's a very, very simple breakdown for me here, basically. Edwards has gone to eight straight decisions, and in Vidal's 10 career fights, she has only hit under one and a half one time.

These are not big finishers, and if they finish, it is almost always late. So, yeah, taking the over the one and a half, little pacifist parlay. Very straightforward, very simple, and get her done. so I'm probably going to parley over one and a half for like all three of the women's fights very reasonable very reasonable plan the one fight that I am skeptical of is the Penai fight I feel like that could end quickly uh pinay pinay ruined me on I had that parley I had her as an over one and a half piece with Carolyn Colvo Kavich and then she killed it

by submitting Kovalkavich immediately. I was like, God damn it. So, but you're not wrong. Yeah, so that's probably I'll end up doing, but other than that, we got nothing on either of these fights. And just for the sake of it, Penae plus 155 against Elise Reed minus 180.

I honestly, like a part of me just wants to be like, Penny shouldn't win fights anymore, but Elise Reed is bad. Penny's 41. And so it's just like why But she's lost five of her past seven And that includes what's pretty close

If not an outright robbery win over Lupi Godinez So it's just like Her one win is beating old washed Carolyn Nicole Kovic this decade functionally It's like I don't know what to do man I'm sticking away from this one I didn't even want to touch the overs

For that very reason But we do have another women's strawweight contest. Melissa Martinez minus 130, taking on the TikTok herself, Alice Ardeline, Ardellian. I'm honestly not sure. Martinez, my slight favorite, minus 130, Alice plus 110. And another very simple breakdown for me, Mike. Both women are bad. Neither of them are good at fighting. And thus, I do not want to be betting on this fight. I don't even want to be betting the over. So if you do choose to do that, Godspeed. I was incorrect. I do have another bet.

I have it on Super Melly. I like her, man. She is fun as hell. She is a little raw, a little rough around the edges, as the kids say. That's putting it gently. But she's had two years off. She's had two years off, time to heal, time to grow up a little bit. She was putting the wood to good old Elise Reed.

And then she realized, hey, you just can't go out and clock. all these women in 50 seconds like you did in kombachi. I know Campbell McLaren feels like kombachi is the greatest promotion that is ever promoted, but it's the number one promotion in the world. Shout out Campbell. Yeah, shout out to you, Campbell. But we didn't see her best, obviously, in the Elise Reed fight. I think the time off is really going to help her.

And I definitely don't think Elise Ardeline is good at all. I'm sorry. I don't think she's, I don't think there should be like a... She is TikTok famous, so that matters. She's like, she's like who Heather Hardy should have fought in Bellator. Like that's the kind of fighter that she kind of is here.

And I think Super Melly is much more talented than that. So I actually just based on looking at, I think minus 135 for Super Melly might be the steel of the card. So the last time I said, that the last time I said that it got a little hairy with iwan kuchelaba but he won is a win a win a win and i feel quite confident uh that even if super melly gasses out in this one she's still going to win she's still going to win this one so yeah i love her at minus 135 uh fair once you said i was like honestly why is ardleon not just like in misfits it feels like

she should just be doing like fighting page van zant and misfits hell yeah whatever like that just seems like her space but instead we're doing this for however long we do this very reasonable and that brings us to our final fight to discuss this weekend heavyweight contest austin lane big big underdog against jorabellis despagna minus four 50 for disbandia uh austin lane plus 3.50. I must note, Shaheen al-Shadi does not fight with honor and has

Rebellis to Spain on his team because of course he does. And given the odds, certainly suggests that he is going to clobber Austin Lane, who is a man very prone to getting clobbered. Mike, do you think he's getting clobbered this weekend?

So I'm betting Rebellis to Spain first round knockout whenever that line drops. It might, even be like minus 500 might even be higher than the actual money line because if he's got to win he's going to win by first round knockout it's a buffer because austin he'd be he listen to my words tackle this man immediately minus 120 is spain first round kio by the way oh well we're jumping all over that that might be my biggest bet of the entire card but um it won't be but it'll be a pretty good one but if Austin Lane just comes out and tackles Rebellis to Spain,

it might be the greatest moment of all time. Just zap them. And if Shaheen gets a zero on Rebellis to Spain against Austin Lane, it would be the funniest thing that this happened all season in our fantasy draft. So, but I don't think that's going to happen. I think Shaheen in his dishonorable ways is going to get a couple hundred points here because Rebella's going to get a first round knockout,

probably a bonus. So yeah, I'm going to be jumping all over that line. Yeah, I can't. Both in good conscience because I don't want to make money while Shaheen has battled so dishonorably. But mostly, I got the ick. I have the ick on Rebellis after watching WCA take him down a bunch. And look, it's not going to happen because Austin Lane just goes and gets clovered.

He got clovered by Janata Denise. Like, he knows his role. He's fulfilling his role. He's doing his job. keeping himself employed. All he has to do is just dive at ankles. And we'll immediately, he's a better wrestler than more than Cortezza Costa. Like, he could do it.

He should know to do it. Like, there's the tape saying, this is how you win. I don't think he's going to do it, but I can't bet Robillus Despaid if you're going to getting a disbain prop bet. Honestly, the buy-k-0 minus 120 is. absolutely reasonable. First round, CAO, like, see,

this is terrific, Matt. This is terrific matchmaking. That's how you do it. I warned everybody after Despain made his debut. Everyone wanted to throw him in there at WCA. I said,

don't do it. This is a horrific idea. And everyone's like, oh, it's not that bad. It's not that bad. I'm like, I'm telling you,

it's a horrific idea. We should be pushing this dude to a title fight. In his third, like three fights into his UFC career, this guy should be fighting for a belt. We should just be throwing him in there with strikers, Taito Ivasa, all these dudes that he will nuke in 45 seconds,

build him up to be a monster and then lose the title fight. And then we could start doing the WCA stuff. But this is exactly what we should be doing. The Austin lanes of the world, this is perfect. And yeah, I got no notes. Rebels within two minutes. The O.C. didn't know the WCA would fight without honor. And they should have.

But we don't support. And I hope Rebellis does win even because I like him, but I got the it. I'm staying away. And that's it, ladies and gentlemen, two fight cards broken down in one hour of listening to our wonderful tones. And you know what that means? We're out of here. And we are, by the time you listen to this couple days, the events will go on. And then Mike, then it's on to the big one.

Oh, that's right. Once this next week, it's UFC 308. It's Ilya, it's Max Holloway. It's theoretically Robert Whitaker and Hamzaa Chimayev, Magermanankalaya of Alexander Rockich, Shara Bullitt, Jeff Neal, RDA, Farid Bosharat, a whole lot of sexy things happening next week,

and we will see y'all then. Thank you, Mike, for hopping on this week, and thank you all for listening. Love y'all. Bye-bye.