MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Will Sergei Pavlovich or Curtis Blaydes Earn A Heavyweight Title Shot At UFC Vegas 71?

Episode Date: April 19, 2023

The UFC keeps right on rolling this Saturday with a return to the Apex, headlined by a probable heavyweight title eliminator between Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes, so the No Bets Barred boys are back to break down their best bets. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew begin the show by recapping UFC Kansas City before diving into their bets for UFC Vegas 71. Conor spreads his bets out this week, with a number of singles and a few parlays, while Jed continues to enjoy the chaos of Heavyweight Overs, plus the ChatGPT Bet of the Week. Then, before closing shop, the boys also take a shallow dive into this weekend's Bellator double header, including a Wolfpack Wager, and a few plays on the highly anticipated Tank Davis vs. Ryan Garcia boxing match. Tune in for Episode 42 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. You know what's better than the one big thing? Two big things. Exactly. The new iPhone 17 Pro on TELUS's five-year rate plan. price lock.

Yep, it's the most powerful iPhone ever, plus more peace of mind with your bill over five years. This is big. Get the new iPhone 17 Pro at tellus.com slash iPhone 17 Pro on select plans. Conditions and exclusions apply. The Vox Media Podcast Network. On y'all, we are back. It is another edition of No Bet's Bar, this time for UFC Apex 71, Sergey Pavlovich, taking on Curtis Blades.

a massive, massive fight in the heavyweight division. I wish this one was happening in front of a crowd. But at least it's a main event. At least it's five rounds. Not like they're going to need it. Huge fight in the division. Very excited for that. We've got Bellator, two Bellator shows in Hawaii.

We've got Giovante Davis taking on Ryan Garcia. We have a lot to get into. Big weekend in combat sports, Jed. Big weekend for Jed, too. Jed, how we feeling, man? I am tentatively ready to go. Big weekend for me. I am running a marathon on Saturday.

So my Saturday is, it's going to be full up, you know, just 26 miles. That's a lot. A bunch of food. A bunch of food. And then the couch and then watching all sorts of fisticuffs go down. So. Tell me this. Do you have to work on Saturday night?

I do not. Thank God. I took Friday and Saturday off. Thank you. Also Sunday because I'm flying back from the marathon. So it took the weekend off. There was zero chance I was working on Saturday. It just wouldn't possibly have happened.

And I do a Friday off so I can watch the Bella tour, you know. Let's go. Let's go. I love that. That's a nice way, honestly, with everything going on, not a bad way to spend a post-marathon night. You're going to be drained. I'm guessing you'll probably get a nap in at some point during the day.

A lot of food. It should be a good day for you. We'll see. So this is my second one. my first one was I did not feel as bad afterwards as I thought the next day was miserable just about as bad as I could have been the Sunday after was real tough but the you know I had a beer right after the marathon I you know refilled with peanut butter you know banana stuff and I mean I was tired don't get me wrong I was tired for sure but I wasn't like totally wrecked

that came on Sunday when when I did not feel like getting up so we'll see if that's, you know, if something just was up or how it goes. But either way, I've got plenty of viewing material. So it should be all right. I was flipped. I was miserable the day that I finished my marathon and then the next day was tremendous for me. That's it. My hat, so I've done, I did a half in preparation for this and I was that way. Right. Like I felt good an hour after. I was like, wow, I actually feel great. Like, I could have probably done a full marathon. Like it would have sucked, but I could have probably finished it. And then two hours after. after like I got, I had some lunch and then my body collapsed after my half. So I don't know if

that's what I should expect here. We'll see. We'll just see how it goes. Survival is the mission. We will see. Best of luck to you in that. I know it is an incredibly difficult task having done one. So I wish you the best and hopefully a beautiful Saturday evening to follow a winning Saturday evening to follow. You mentioned you're in Kansas City, UFC, Kansas City. I thought it was a fun car. You had boots on the ground. You were inside the arena. You were asking question to the fighters. How did you rate it?

How did you feel about Saturday night? So I had a lot of fun because I was there. I know that there was some talk about the card feeling long, and I can understand that. I think if I was watching at home, 14 fights is always a lot, man. But there, it felt like it moved really quickly. The co-mate event, that knee from Edson Barboso was... Oh, my gosh. I wish I like had like a live reaction of me watching that because I was cheering for Billy Q

and I was just like all right he's doing pretty good he's doing he's dead he's dead like it like it was just like that like that was like my literal reaction I was just like and he's dead like that's that's it I uh I mean yes Andy's dead is honestly a perfect reaction for exactly what happened but it's like that was so big like I had an Edson by K.O. bet like prop bet at plus 380 or whatever. Beautiful bet. That CO was so good. I didn't even think about that bet until afterwards because it was just like, oh my God.

Like how did this even happen? And then like a couple minutes later, this was like, oh, yeah, she's cast to 380. Oh, that's crazy. That's actually an insane move by you because, I mean, I'm like fully aware of any action I have going into every single fight. Well, I am too, but the knockout was just like it wasn't the first thing. I tweeted almost right after it happened and it's gone on to be one of my most successful tweets ever. It's like it's insane to think about because that knockout would be the crowning jewel of most fighters' career. Like it would be the highlight that defined a fighter's career.

And it might not even be one of Edson's best like four or five. It's just insane because it was a truly nuts, K.O. And then, you know, the main event was great. I mean, speaking of knees and knockouts, I am astonished that Matthias Nicolao survived a very similar knee from Brandon Royval that says very similar to the one Edson hit. He managed to survive it only to be finished by follow-up elbows, which were ruthless. And flyweight unders, baby. Flyweight unders.

I mean, Brandon Roy Val is a champion of flyweight unders. Like, he just, I, as soon as Roy Val finished him, I was like, why did I bet? Matt Mateus Nicolao. I still profited off of the fight because of the plus money on the under, and I went pretty big on it. I was like, why did I do that? If I was going to do anything, I'd ride with the raw dog, our champion. You're the raw dog.

You got to believe in him. We talk about you live and you learn. You win or you learn. Not doubling up is like a huge thing that I need to like really master. Like it's just like you either take a side or you take an over under. Like you don't take both because it's rare that you that you hit both. Yeah, threading that needle's tough. And like I had some of that.

So I had a winning week in large part because Barbosa and got a bit of a robbery assist from Jocelyn Edwards there. She did not deserve to win that one. Yikes. Did not deserve to win that one. So putting that one in the bank for the next time I catch a bad beat because that was a full-blown robbery on my part. and Edson getting the CO, but I was doubled up on Arnold Allen. You know, I had Allen, and I had Allen by decision, and I had the over in a parlay, and obviously the overhits. Overhead.

I mean, that fight was never, ever going to get finished. Like, that was a decision all the way. Why did we not just unload the clip on this season? Should have just done that. Should have. And I had hoped all the way through the fight, I was like, Arnold Allen's style has a chance to pull this out. Obviously, can't get it done. Fight was great.

I've since gone back and rewatched it. I don't know what you scored at real time. I think that you thought Max Holloway won. I actually had 4946 in real time. I think that's a fine scorecard. I went back real time from Caged side. I thought on R. Allen won. He, everything he landed sounded so violent and moved so much.

And I honestly just missed a lot of shots Max landed. I still don't think I totally believe the stats. They seem to, they have Max landing, an infinite number. They even on rewatch doesn't look like real. Because Arnold Allen catches a lot of it with his elbows, but I do think upon rewatch, Max wins the fight on my card, 48, 47 on rewatch.

And frankly, he won it in the last second with the drop at the very last moment. I thought, I had a lot of it. So you say Arnold Allen 2 and 4 and the drop won it for Max Holloway. Yep, exactly. It was on rewatch. That's how I viewed it.

Live, I had it 1 and 3 max, 2, 4, and 5 for Arnold Allen. I wasn't sure Arnold got dropped live because he couldn't really tell from where it was Caged side. I saw them getting after it. And then obviously I saw him fall over. But he popped up so quickly that in my head I was just like, oh, it must have just slipped. Because he, you know. I thought he slipped too. Yeah, he was up immediately.

And then you watch the replay and you know. but I've already, you know, said, all right, well, I still think Arnold Allen did enough. He had such a strong start to that round. I scored it for Allen three to two. And on rewatch, I still give him two and four. I still feel good about giving him two and four, though if you give those rounds for Max, I can't super argue they were competitive rounds. And I had Arnold ahead until he gets dropped at the last.

So for me, I think Max wins it in the drop. The thing I was very surprised about, which I didn't realize until the next day, basically. it is surprising to think that Max Holloway was up four rounds to none on two of the judges' scorecards because the 49-46 is the round they gave Allen was the last. I was very surprised to see that. I think you have to be very generous to give Max all four of the first rounds. Not saying that there's not an argument for it, it feels very, very generous to give him all a clean sweep of those rounds.

I thought he won one, three, and four when I was watching live. And then the replay, as we were waiting for the scorecards, I was like, oh, he dropped them. I was like, I'll go ahead and give him that one, too, 4946. I think that's a fine scorecard. Like, it's just one of those fights. When we went to the scorecards, though, I was like, Max won. He's going to get his hand raised.

And when they said 4946, I was like, Max definitely won. When they said 4946, I was pretty confident Max took it. And I will also say, look, it wasn't a total sellout. I don't know if the UFC said it was or not. You could look around and you could see there were some sections that were not sold. The Kansas City crowd delivered. I mean, they were there. They were super loud.

I don't know if that came through on the broadcast or not. I think it did. I thought they sounded good. Some people were complaining about them, but I thought it was fun. And then the apex. Yeah. I mean, they were there. They were showing out.

and Kansas City is is the is Max Holloway country you know it is there are so many islands of Hawaii now Vegas is another island of Hawaii Kansas City is one of them he was easily the biggest star there followed by probably Clay Guida I mean they loved Max they were cheering the they were cheering the they were cheering the whole time every anything time he did something Max was getting the love and anytime like you you know a couple of those shots that on an island landed, just those giant bombs that, like, cracked the head back. Those were the only times the crowd even acknowledged Arnold Allen existed. And it was always like, oh, you just hear a resonance.

Even they had to admit, like, that one looked bad. Yeah. Yeah, no, they sounded great on air. I love the Holloway Chance. I loved, like, I like the booing of Arnold Allen. As an Arnold Allen guy, I'm still cool with it. Like, you're in the U.S. You're fighting a U.S. fighter.

Like, get booed. and deal with it because if we were across the pond in London, they'd be going crazy for you and not for Max. So the blessed is best. The blessed is back. Max, all the picks of the win. Can we talk one more thing before we move on? I got to know your thoughts here.

Yeah. You had a couple of revenge bets out there. I did. Yes, I did. Daniel Zell Hoover. Did not get revenge for you. How do you feel about, about is Daniel Zell Hoover just

just your white whale now? Nah, nah, because it like he would have become my white whale had he come out and just absolutely obliterated dude. When it looked like he was going to get the finish in the first round, I was like this guy's Zell Hoover, this guy's Zell Hoover. When he didn't get the finish, Vanada fights back in round

two. It looked like Vanada was like had round two and like there was potential they were tied. Of course, some of the judges scored a 10-8 for Zell-Huber. Like it was close and it went to a decision. I was just kind of like, but not have fought for my money, it is what it is. Like the more the week went on, I was kind of like, this does sort of feel like a buy low spot for Zell Hoover. I was like, eh, it is what it is.

And then Hoffa Garcia made up for it later by just pillar to post beat down of Clay Gwita. I was one of the only fights I didn't get to see. We had a bunch of people backstage and so I did not watch almost any. The only part of that I saw was the fake retirement from Cleggwita. When I say you miss nothing, you miss nothing. It was just a boxing match that was one-way traffic the entire time. The Hoffa Garcia just jabbed his face off. I mean, love that.

I mean, 30-27's easy bet for you. Easy, easy, easy. Yeah, I mean, ended up winning week. That's now barely, barely, but three straight UFC cards of profit. Three stray UFC cards of profit. Let's string it together for a fourth. Let's get a fourth this weekend. Turning the franchise around.

That's what we are doing right now. It feels like the tides are turning. I'm feeling pretty decent. We are turning the franchise around. I love to hear that. And I got to say, looking at the card ahead this week, it appears that you've got some action down, a good amount of plays this weekend from those.

I've got some decent action down. I got some plays that I like, man. Let's get into it. I need some more. I want to steal some. So I'm hoping you'll sell me. I might have some, I might have a big plus money play that I can talk you into.

Let's get it going, though. UFC Apex 71. Back to the Apex. We've already got the, we made the reservations for four more times in the summer. It's good to be back. No more crowds. Who needs them? We start.

Main event, heavyweight bout, Curtis Blades, taking on Sergei Pavlovich. I mean, to say, I mean, this is essentially a title Eliminator fight. Like if John Jones fights, Steepamioch, you have to think. whoever wins this fight is likely getting a title shot after that. Right now, Curtis Blades, minus 170, Sergey Pavlovich coming back, plus 145. For me, I know you're high on blades. I really just, I don't know who is going to win this fight. It's like a tale of two fights, in my opinion. I don't think this is going to be some back and forth affair where they're just going crazy and each guy has his moments. To me, I think Curtis Blades decides to stand with Sergey Pavlovich. Pavlovich

bumrushes him, like we've seen him do the last five times out and just puts the volume and the power on him and finishes him. Or Blades gets us to the ground and just pommels him. I mean, Pavlovich offered essentially nothing off of his back against Alistair Overeem. I know that was five, six years ago now. We have no data to prove whether or not his, His ground game has improved at all, like his fights last 60 seconds. So, yeah, I think it's one guy ends up looking good, getting his hand raised by finish. And that's pretty much the only way this goes. I just don't know who it's going to be.

Yeah, I mean, well, one, you sat it at the top high on blade. It's got a future ticket on him for champion this year. But I can't argue with anything you said. This is maybe the easiest fight breakdown we're going to have all year. Because we simply don't know anything about Pavlovich, right? Like he's just, he's knocking dudes out in the first 30 seconds. If he touches you, you probably go to sleep. We've seen Curtis Blades.

I mean, Derek Lewis did exactly that to him. So the same thing could totally happen here. But on the other side, we've seen Pavlovich face adversity once. He didn't hold up well. Old Alist or Overeem was able to take him down and bully him. And that's enough for me. I recognize that there is a major amount of risk here because maybe Pavlovich just is that dude, right?

Like maybe he just has the touch and he hits it at any point in time that can happen. But I would assume based on what we currently know and what I've seen from them, that far more likely than not, Curtis Blades is going to be able to score takedowns and beat up Sergey Pavvich on the floor. And so I'm betting with that. I'm taking Blades by K.O. Because that's how this fight's going to go. I've briefly thought about maybe being like,

I could get cute with the Blades by submission at plus 900 or whatever it is. But he's got zero subs on his record. It's just now what's going to happen. If he can get the takedowns, he's going to be hitting him with those big old lunchboxes the same way he does everybody. He's probably going to get him out of there in under two rounds. and that's what I'm picking to happen. And because you know I have to, I don't feel great about it.

I don't feel great about it. I thought you were going to get a much better line here. I'm not going to lie. Oh, on Blades by K.O. Oh, no, no, no. I'm assuming you're about to say you're also taking the over? Sure am. Sure am.

I thought you were going to get a much better price, dude. I'm not even going to lie. I thought I would get a better price. The over one and a half is plus $110. It is plus money, so there is at least that. I'll be honest, I don't feel great about it because, I mean, Pavlovich just like hasn't ever gone over one and a half this dude just never does it. And even Blades, who you maybe have this construction of a boring wrestle grappler,

that hasn't happened a lot. Like, yeah, he did it to Yairzino Rosenstrike and Alexander Volkov. But Derek Lewis was under Tom Aspinall, the injury under Chris Dawkes, under Junior DeSantos, under shemil darakamov under he has consistently gotten early finishes uh it's part of his game and against a guy like pavlovich i think it could totally happen but i'm committed i'm pock committed to the heavyweight over lifestyle yeah yeah yeah listen all i can do is respected all i can do respect it because there are no locks in this game there there is no telling and anything can happen um i personally am on the under uh i just mathematically speaking it's just something

that I had to do. My hand was forced. Pavlovich, 15 of his 18 pro fights have ended in the first round. You mentioned get takedowns for Curtis Blades. I think he gets a takedown. He's going to open up the lunchboxes on this guy. Like I really do think that it just goes back to the top. either Curtis Blades. One thing I will say about Curtis Blades when he came on the MMA hour, he is aware of the optics of his win as he's trying to get this title shot. I think his, whether it's in the first round, the second, around the third round, whenever it may be, I think this dude is determined to finish Pavlovich here. I think winning by decision is not even entering his brain. I think he's going to be looking for a finish.

And- A thousand percent I'm gonna get one if you wins. It's just a question. Someone on his team, someone on his team like has to be like, Curtis, man.

I know, you know, you wanted to try the stand up against Chris Dawkins. You know, I know you wanted to, to stand and trade. Let's just take this dude down, man. Like,

let's just blast the double. I think he is going to blast the double early. Like, let's do it early. I think it's going to immediately blast a double. And I'm going to be sitting there. both wanting him to win and hoping that he takes all seven and a half minutes to do it. Now here's where it gets scary.

Here's where it gets real scary if you're a Curtis Blades better. If he blasts a double right off rip and Pavlovich just like stuffs the hell out of it. And then he goes for another one and he stuffs the hell out of that. And then they're just standing and fighting on the feet. Because I will say this about Pavlovich. Yes, he looked like a fish out of water against Alistair over him. that was his debut in the UFC. He took like three years off,

and like any bit of softness on this dude's body has been morphed in the muscle. And like he is Caldrogo now. No. Why do I always do this? Caldogo's Game of Thrones. Who's Rocky? Oh, um, oh my God.

Now I'm blanking on it. Give me a second. Rocky Boxer, evil villain guy. Ivan Drago. Ivan Drago. Now he is fully Ivan Drago. If we could get a flat top on this guy, he would be Ivan Drago.

And another thing about him is like, the handspeed's pretty crazy on this dude for how big and how powerful he is. A lot of handspeed. But look, abs don't always win fights. Just ask Tanner Bozer. Tanner looked great going into that fight. I had a bet on Kutzalab and I was like, shit. I felt so good about the chat, TPP bet. I was like, man, Tanner Bozer is, he's going to do the thing.

And then it didn't matter because sometimes abs don't win fights, you know. It's a fact. It's a fact. Yeah, I think we're in agreement on this one. I don't know who wins. I am riding the under one and a half. I have the under four and a half in a parlay. Feel very good about that as a parlay piece.

And that's that. That's the main event. I'm very excited for this fight. if you have a feeling on either side and you want to bet it, bet that guy by K.O. You don't need to bet just with the thing. There's a zero percent chance a submission or decisions happening. We're getting a finish either way. So just take the extra little bit of value, Pavlovich by K.O.

Or Blades by K.O. Or Blades by K. You get him at by K. He's minus 110. That's what I'm on. Pavlovich is plus 145. You get him at plus 175 by K. I think there's no reason not to take that little bit of extra edge, whichever side you want to fall on.

Yeah. And I think if you take a side on this one, you just have to go in accepting how your fate can go wrong, how this goes sour, because it can go sour for either fighter quickly. The only way I'll be mad about this bet is if it's Sergei Pavlovich like flying arm bars him. And I'll be like, well, I didn't know that was in play. My back. I mean, that'd be crazy. I mean, then we have, then we have a new super heavy way to be flying arm. bars, Curtis Blades. I will bet on him every chance I get if he just hits a flying arm bar. That would be the sickest thing ever. Marshall's buyers travel far and wide, hustling for great deals on

amazing gifts. So you don't have to. They've bagged this season's Italian leather handbags. Designer. Handpicked the finest sweaters from the rest. Ooh, cashmere. Landed makeup pallets from the brands you love. Rushes too. And hustled all those

wishless topping toys. boys so plush. Our buyers have got you covered. Marshals, we get the deals. You gift for good stuff. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip.

Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. All right. That's the main event. Let's keep it rolling. To our new co-main, we lose Ricky Simone and Songyan. Dong. That will now be next week's main event. And Brad Tavares and Bruno Silva gets slotted in to the co-main event. Middleway bout right now, you can have Brad Tavares for the price of minus

155 Bruno Silva coming back at plus 135. Your thoughts on this fight? I don't have a great thought. I've got a bet here, but it's a dumb bet, right? This isn't a that really based in a lot of things other than perceived value. I honestly don't, this fight feels kind of coin flippy to me, more so than the odds may suggest. Because Tavares is a veteran doesn't even cover it. This dude's been around four. It feels like a lifetime,

and he's like that exact perfect level of gatekeeper to the top 15. He might find his way into the top 15. He's going to lose to the guys like Israel Dissigno. Robert Whitaker, Trichus Duplessi, but he's going to give him hell when he does it, and he's going to beat the other guys and keep out the Christopjokos, et cetera. He is that dude, but at some point, the Miles catch up with you. And maybe they don't for Hawaii boys. We saw Max Holloway eat bombs, and apparently, despite the fact that he has the most

battle-tested chin ever, it's still holding up 12 years into the game. At some point, Tavares, is going to start falling off, and so I have some concerns there. But Bruno Silva feels like he has lost to, I mean, he has lost to the best guys he's faced in Alex Pajara, and Alex Barrero, sorry, and Gerald Mearsart. And I think Brad Tavares is slightly better. Connor, why would you bet Brad Tavares at minus 155?

When instead you can bet Brad Tavarez by decision at plus 170, D. In case you didn't know, Brad Bada 12, 12 of Brad Tavares' 14 years to have come by decision. There's a big goal for those two things. And so for the other side of that, six of Silva's eight losses have been, have been by submission. So he does get finished when he loses. But Brad Tvaras is not a submission guy. When he gets finishes, they're usually TKOs. They're usually an accumulation of damage. 12 of 14. wins have come by decision for Brad Tavares. I would never met Brad Tavares straight. I would always bet him by decision. Death taxes, Brad Tavares by decision, that's the bet. I love this bet. I mean,

this is a fantastic bet, and I'm about to just spew regret here. I took Brad Tavares straight because I actually thought the line was going to open up a little bit more. It looked like it did, and then it has come back down. I didn't have a Tavaris by decision bet. I didn't have a Tavaris by decision bed available to me. Because I also was just like, oh, yeah, it's probably going to be like the minus 105 type thing. Like plus 170, plus 170 is a monster swing for this thing for a guy that has two knockouts in however many 21 UFC fights.

Like, he has been in there 21 times and 19 times. It ended up Brad Tavars did not finish his opponent. Bruno Silva, yes, he's been finished by submission six times. The dude can eat punches. The dude is tough as nails. He went 15 minutes with Alex Pereira. You mentioned that. For everything you just said, I am using the over one and a half at minus 200.

I parlayed that with the under in the main event. I mean, Brad Tavares, over one and a half and 18 of his 21 UFC fights. average fight time, 1315 for this guy. I mean, we were texting live, Migu and New York Rick during the DDP Brad Tavares fight. I know he's been knocked out before, but like that is a granite chin, dude. Like, it's not fully Drew Dober,

where Drew Dober just like gets his whole head turned and then like simultaneously he's already looking back at you and like he's just completely unaffected. But like, it just never seems like this dude gets knocked out. Flipside, Bruno Silva, three of his five UFC fights have gone over the one and a half. The ones that went under were against what, Wellington Termin and Jordan Wright that just got thrown in there to be punching bags against them. I think this goes over the one and a half. Both dudes are incredibly durable. I don't see a world where Brad Tavares is finishing.

The more I'm talking, the more I'm just like regretting this fucking minus 155 bet I played because I can't cash it out at the book that I laid it. And I would love to lay that plus 170. Because that is just a way better bet. Like, if Brad Tavaris finishes Bruno Silva, I will be stunned. Like, that's how, that is how tough Bruno Silva is and how little of finishing prowess has. Like, he's a dog, dude, and he'll batter you up. But I just, I don't, I don't, I don't see him finish you know. And now, Bruno Silva, now let's talk about why I took the money on. You talked about how he, it seems like he loses when he takes this step up in competition. The GM3 thing, I'm writing that off as a bad night at the office because he looked, I,

when it happened, I remember I was like, who is this, dude? Why does this guy have a goate? Why is he bald? And what did they do with the real Bruno Silva? Because this is not him. Like, what is going on here? I am dumbfounded at how bad he looked. The fight before that, it was he gave Alex Pereira a test but he still got 3027 and it got poured on him in the end it looked like a couple times that he was going to get finished but he is just tough as nails the Andrew Sanchez fight he's down two rounds going into that third round and then he pours it on and gets a knockout on on Andrew Sanchez like his two impressive wins in the UFC are against Wellington Termin and Jordan Wright Brad Tavares, like you said, he's not a world beater, but he is that like perfect gatekeeper level.

Like, he is not Jordan right. You are not going to come in and just get this dude up against the cage in the first 45 seconds, tee off and the fight is over. Like, I just don't, I don't see that happening. With the way that Bruno Sivas looked lately, Brad Tavares, gatekeeper, professional, dude. He is also professional regimented, always in fantastic shape. that's why I played it. I'm sorry if I sound angry because I'm really just regretting

not holding this plus 170. Instead, I'm holding this square ass minus $150. Well, I'm glad we're on the same side because like I said, I wasn't super confident in Tava's. I think this fight can be close because Silva's a little more dynamic,

but the gulf between Brad is a minus 150 and as a fight as... It's huge. I was like, that can't be right. Just take it. Just take it. It's huge. That's like $125. Like, that's a massive change, bro.

It's quite much. All right. Let's let's just see real quick. So I laid, you know, 1.15 or 1.55 units to win one unit on Brad Tavaris. If I had done 1.55 on his decision prop, which is almost certainly how he's going to win, I would win 2.64 great. Huge swing. Huge swing. But we did just talk earlier about not doubling up.

Doubling up is where you get in trouble. Yes, I doubled up on this fight. I did the bracket of ours, and then I parlayed the over one and a half. So a Bruno Silva swarm... I'm going to take that from all the piece. I felt like minus 200 was a little underpriced. I'm not going to lie. That's a good price.

I'm going to take that for a parlay piece because I had a couple... I had two open legs on a parlay. I was looking for a third. I'm going to take that to round it out. So I like that parlay leg. All right. Let's keep it rolling. On the main car, Bobby King Green taking on Jared Flash Gordon.

Right now, Bobby Green minus 250. Jared Gordon plus 2.10. Yeah, like it kind of feels like Bobby's going one way in his career. Jared Gordon is, you know, he's getting a lot of love coming off the loss to Patty Pimbled. Bad knockout for Bobby Green. He's getting a little bit older. But I'm going with Bobby Green here. Parlayed him up.

We'll talk about it later with Montel Jackson. I mean, if you just go back and watch Bobby Green fights, like he did, I know before he got caught, he was putting it on, Drew Dober. Is that knockout going to have lasting effects? It really, it wasn't that long ago. Maybe so, like he did get crumpled. But if you do not count that Islam Makashchev fight, which was on short notice against the lightweight champion, he has outstruck his opponent in 11 straight fights by an average of 48 significant

strikes per fight. He doubles up his opponents in eight of his last 11 fights. He puts out insane volume. And I think that's what's going to happen here. I think it's going to be pretty competitive. It's going to feel back and forthish. I'm sure Jared Gordon will have his moments throughout it. But I just think at the end of it, Bobby Green will have doubled him up on significant strikes, had the more visually appealing moments and win a decision. I don't think it's going to be competitive. I think Bobby Green is a clearly better fighter than Jared Gordon. My main question here, I don't have a bet in as a result, is how does this fight end? Because Bobby Green is certainly going to pile up strikes on him on Jared Gordon, but historically he has largely

been a decision guy, seven of his 10 UFC wins come by the cards. The other end of that, though, Jared Gordon's been stopped in five to six losses. He has. split decision that he should have won against patty pimblit is the only loss that he has not been finished in bobby green can finish people particularly when you're putting on that biggest strike differential so part of me wants to look at a bobby green by decision prop at plus money and say that's where the value is seven to ten again of his ufc fights have gone by decision but against the guy like jared gordon i'm not sure that is where the value is so i don't know whether to just use bobby as a parley piece or maybe reach a little bit more for the prop bet,

and I haven't kind of figured out where I'm going to fall on that spectrum at the moment. Do we have a green by K.O. line anywhere? Are we seeing any of those? Not at the moment. I haven't seen any if you find one. But let me find one right now. I didn't look at it. Where is it? Because that, what you're saying right now, that seems like an interesting little guy there. Bobby Green by K.O. I'm not seeing it. Plus 350.

Plus 350. I might take a sprinkle on that. I won't go a full unit, but I might throw a quarter unit. Bobby Green by decision is minus 140. Oh, that's minus 140. It was plus one. There was plus money earlier yesterday.

So already down to minus. I think I'm going to throw, what did you say the line was for KO? Plus 350. I'm going to throw a half unit on that. And just see. I don't know that it will hit, so I don't want to extend too much.

But plus 350 is a bit. big number. Cluster 50 is a big number. And I mean, there is a world where he pours it on. I think in the striking, he, he's going to vastly outland him. I think for sure. I think he's just clean. I love Bobby Green.

Bobby Green has been the guy I've talked about for the last couple of years as who, if there was another guy who was going to have a Jorge Mosfidal, like, late career star turn, who would it be? And Bobby Green's always been my answer of like, yeah, this guy is, he's been around for a long time. He's a professional. I mentioned that about Brad Tavares. Bobby Green is a professional, but he's got some eccentricity to him, some star turn to him, the ability to finish if he really decided to prioritize that.

I love watching Bobby Green fight, and I think he's a much better fighter than Jared Gordon. So Bobby Green by K.O., half unit at plus 350, I'm going to take a shot. Should be an awesome fight. I'm looking forward to it. Anytime Bobby King Green gets in the Octagon, it's usually a fun fight. Let's keep it rolling. main card straw weight bout or flyweight bout i actually uh it's flyweight it's flyweight okay earlier the tapology page yesterday said strawweight now ufc.com says flyweight so we are going to go flyweight

so we're going to go flyweight for this one page also says flyweight now yes so i think it's fully updated this is a flyway bout jasmine lucendo taking on brogan walker Right now, you can have Lucindo for minus 330. Brogan Walker coming back plus 275. Yeah, I don't think Brogan Walker is going to have much for Yasmin Lucendo here. I think Lucendo at this young age, 21, I think she's going to get better every single time we see her out. She started as a professional fighter when she was 15. Like, she's already got 18 pro-MMA bouts and she's 21 years old.

I think she actually has some serious potential here moving forward. Plus, the way she fights, man, she's exciting. She's looking for the kill when she goes out there. I'm just not impressed by Brogan Walker going back and watching the tough finale against Juliana Miller. Just had essentially nothing for Miller. So much so that it talked me into playing Miller last time. out, and that did not go well. That did not go well against Mosedo. What I did do, didn't want to

play this straight. I'm not going to lay minus 330 on a 21-year-old in women's MMA. Yasmin Lucendo, four of her last six wins have come by way of K.O. Brogan Walker, we just saw got caoed. I took Yasmin Lucendo by KOTKO plus 600. Oh, okay. And what I'm also thinking on, I'm waiting for all the books to get it before I play this, thinking about doing a little round two, round three sprinkle, like plus 1,200 plus 1,600. I think that Yaslyn Lucindo is going to come out here, just start battering up Walker. She is completely down to engage in a brawl, very exciting fight in the battle.

of the Yasmin's last year. I believe it was in August or so. I think she's going to wear on her, break her down, and finish her as the fight goes on. I'm going to level with you. Be honest. I didn't watch anything for this. I'm not prepared for this fight. I was working on something a little special for the listeners.

They made a fighting podcast network, great podcast network, great website. So I can only trust you on this. I mean, I do recall watching the Battle of the Asmines. We were all there. We all remember it. But I don't feel confident any way to go. I do love a plus 600. That's a tasty number.

I'm sitting this one out. But I may tell you with just Lucinda and a parlay, I'm feeling a bit parley this week. We've got a lot of heavy favorites. Okay, okay. Some kind of a chalky stew just to have one out there. But I'm just going to wish you well on this one. Thank you.

I appreciate that. Yeah, I think that's how this one's going to go. I don't think Brogan Walker is going to have a ton here for Lucindo. And I honestly think being at flyweight might help Lucindo more just so she can be even bigger and be more down to brawl. I think Lucinda gets it done here. You never have to sell me too hard on a 21-year-old taking on someone in their mid-30s who's not very good.

Yeah. It's an easy sell for me personally. It's also a plus 600. I'm not going too crazy on it. You know, yeah, don't just put a little sprinkle, see what happens. I love the energy. It's a great, it's great when you have like a bet like that on the card. We're just like, we still have the Lucinda fight. You never know what could happen there. She might get the knockout. Just one one good win. And buddy, you're out there. You're out there, especially if I do this round two, round three, sprinkle, then we'll really be talking.

I mean, I only put a half unit on the plus 600. We'll see what I do. I like, I'm talking like, I'm talking like maybe. like a quarter unit each on round two, round three. But we shall see. Let's get to the last fight on the main card, a Welterweight bout. Jeremiah Weld taken on Matt Semelsberger. Very, very closely line fight, minus 110. Each way, take whoever you want, flip a coin.

You tell me, do you have a side in this fight? Mr. Machine. Do you have a side in this fight? Do you have a side? I have a side in this fight. Ooh, okay. Well, I'll lead us off by saying this is a reverse revenge pick for me. Okay, interesting.

I think I know where you're going with this. Because I have a long history with this particular fighter-harm backing, and a lot of it had been successful. But the last two times out, I've been burned. Been burned by this man. The first, we all remember, happened last year with Shark Week. I would pick Matthew Singlesburg. I was very high on him and was like, That's not very good, but I did not factor in the shark week of it all.

Yeah, I apologize for that. That is actually more on me than it is on you. That's true, but I don't want to pass blame. I didn't realize the shark week. That was a mistake. I took the L. Probably my best bet ever. I'm not going to lie.

That might have been my best bet ever. It was a great bet. But the thing that was worse is that I did the classic mistake where it compounded problems. I didn't learn lessons. I was a fool. And so I took that lost to Alex Marono, and I was like, he's not very good. The shark week, it didn't factor in the shark week was what did it. It was just like, oh, Matthew Simmelzberger, I know I liked him.

He must just suck. And so then when he faced Jake Matthews, the guy I was pretty high on, a young guy coming up thought he was going to do something. I was like, Jake Matthews, he's going to run him over. and Matthew Simmelzberger just delivered a beat down on Jake Matthews. And so twice in a row Matthew Simul's burger has hit me. And this time, Connor, this time I'm going to learn the lesson. I'm going to recognize that Matthew Simulzberger is a good fighter, but it's not his fault. Fighting a man on Sharkwood, the Great White on Shark Week.

No one can win that fight. No one. No, Ushman in there. Alex Moro. Leon Edwards, Hamzaa Shamaa, Shavkat, Rakmanov, Alex Marano beats them all on Sharkweek. There is no debating that. It's undeniable. And so this time I'm going to give the man his due respect.

I'm going to have him. I'm picking him to beat Jeremiah Wells. I'm surprised that this line is evenly lined. Oh, no. Is that the Jedmishu? Is that the Jedmishu? I'm surprised at this line curse. It may be.

That's what people are saying in the streets. I could believe it. I am just shocked. I'm like Symbolsburger is going to look a full weight class bigger than Wells in there. And it's not like Jeremiah Wells. is a great fighter. Like, he's a dude. Here's what I have to say.

Here's what I have to say. When you first said that this was a reverse jinx, I thought you were going to be going with Jeremiah Wells because of how Hino-Gracy-Filly has done us dirty. So I thought we were going to be on opposite sides. I thought we were going to be on opposite sides. I am actually on Semmel's Burger as well. First off, we just have to recognize,

similar to the main event, this fight is probably going to get pretty hectic, pretty chaotic in there. Oh, for sure. Jeremiah Wells, three O.C. fights, three finishes. Matt Semmelsberger, seven knockdowns in seven UFC fights for this man. Three knockdowns last time out.

I mean, you said it. He looked fantastic. Am I overreacting? Maybe. But the size advantage that he's going to have, if he can just, he's going to need to just stay patient, stay cautious, because Jeremiah Wells is going to come out and force this fight. He's going to be coming out, throwing huge looping shots, coming in for, for, for crazy takedowns trying to get this to the mat.

But if he can avoid a big shot from Jeremiah Wells, Semmelsberger can go all day. And I think he's going to get the better of him. And I think as the fight goes on, he's going to be able to finish Jeremiah Wells. And the thing is, look, he's a tough dude. I'm not saying he should willingly eat shots from Jeremiah Wells, but Chaos Williams can crack.

And he, you know, went the distance here. He can stand up to a little bit of fire. I like Matthew Simmelzberger as a, as a straight-up pick. Hi, I'm Sophia Loper Carroll, host of the Before the Chorus podcast. We dive into the life experiences behind the music we love. Artists of all genres are welcome, and I've been joined by some pretty amazing folks, like glass animals.

I guess that was the idea was to try something personal and see what happened. And Japanese breakfast. I thought that the most surprising thing I could offer was an album about joy. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts. Oh, and remember, so much happens before. the chorus. With Instacard, you get groceries that over-deliver, so you can over-share your preferences. Want russet potatoes with no brown spots? You got it. Want turnips that look light but feel heavy? Easy. Want honey-crisp apples that are firm green and definitely not Macintosh like last year when you lost

the fall bake-off to perfect Penelope Johnson? Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it. So download the app today and get zero delivery fees on your first three orders. Instacard, groceries that over deliver. Service-based exclusions and terms apply. All right. That was the main card. Let's rip through these prelims, a little rapid fire, because all my breakdowns for the prelims are very short. Lightway bout, Ricky Glenn, Christos-Giagos. I got nothing. Anything for you? Oh, I assumed you had something because it's on there. I, in fact, am taking a side on here. Yes, tell me. Not exposing myself too much. I'm taking Christos Gagos. mainly just because he can wrestle here.

He's the underdog. He is an aggressive attacking wrestler. When he has won the wrestling in fights, he has tended to, and by tended to, I mean, he has won the fights. You can look at his record. He's scoring five, six take downs, a pop against people. He's getting Ws over. And Ricky Glenn, fine dude, but we've seen him struggle there.

I mean, Grant Dawson, he goes to a draw with, but consistently was taken down in that fight. You know, Dennis Bermudas scored a ton of takedowns on him. It can just happen. So I'm back in the wrestling. I'm not back in too much, just a half unit on it, but I am there. All right. I like that. I took a look into that, but eventually decided away from it. Let's keep it rolling. Bantamway about Ronnie Yaya, Montel Jackson. I parlayed up Bobby Green with Montel Jackson pays out at minus 152. I mean, Montel Jackson. He's got the side. he's got the reach, he's got the speed, he's got the power, he just doesn't have the grappling. Even though he likes to go to the ground, he likes to wrestle, just don't do it with Rani Yaya.

Like, Montel Jackson has nine knockdowns in his last five fights going against the guy and Rani Yaya that has zero knockouts in 39 career pro fights. He should just stay on the feet and just pick Rani Yaya apart. I mean, it's just don't get fancy. Stay at range and win the fight. He very much should. If it goes to the mat, my heart's going to start fluttering. Like, it's just like there's no reason to do that.

I am a little concerned though. I will say, look at him statistically. You know, it says his takedown defense is 67%. It's probably a little better than that, like if you just think about it abstractly, because he gave up a number of takedowns to Ricky Simone and Brett Johns, like seven and eight in that respectively. So he has largely done really well at stuffing takedowns just against pretty solid wrestlers. He struggled. And Ronnie Yaya, for as great a grappler as he is, not an explosive takedown artist, you know, not a guy who is great at mixing things up.

He just kind of latches on and tries to sneak his way to the back. I haven't decided if I think he's worthy parley fodder just because Ronnie Yaya can be tricky and that grappling, if it does go to the ground, my thoughts on the fight will pivot dramatically. So not sure if I'm with you as a parley piece, but I understand the bet. I mean, that is incredibly true. If it goes to the ground, everything switches up. But I trust Jackson to get this done to be. be the smart fighter here and just avoid your opponent's strength and exploit his weaknesses.

It just really kind of seems... It shouldn't be hard for him to do. We'll see if he can do it. Just seems that easy to me, but we'll see if he does that. Let's keep it rolling, though. Next up, women's featherweight bout. Don't get them often. Don't get them too often. 145. Carol Hosa making the move up to take on Norma Dumont, Norman Dumont, this, you know, it kind of feels like her natural weight class. I like to see Norman Dumont in there at 145 swanging and banging. And I am on Norman Dumont. I took her at plus 125. Obviously, this is going to be a close fight, but I am riding with the dog here. Like that it's at

featherweight for Dumont. I think it's her more natural weight class. She's going to be the bigger fighter. She's going to be the more physical fighter. Go in there. Land take downs. We saw in Hosa's only loss to McMahon. She got taken down and controlled every single round, uh, worked the clench. I think Dumont has the tools to get it done here. Women's MMA, very close fight. Took the plus money. I don't know if this is going to make you feel better or worse, Connor. I'd love to hear it. Carole Rosa versus Norma Dumont. It's the chat GPT bet of the week. We had a tough go last week. Very tough go. Um, didn't work out. even a little bit, which was a shame, but I'm going to put that on me. I'm going to say I didn't

input the data correctly. Can't play chat GPT for it. Plus, this is still learning. We have yet to say the chat GPT bet is a good bet. We're gathering data week over week to make a determination. And this is close to a pick-em fight. I didn't feel like I get a great read on it. So we fired it up. And let me tell you what chat GPT says, Colin. Carol Rosa, being a BJA Black Belt, was expected to dominate the ground game, but Norma Dumont, Brown Belt herself proved to be a tough opponent. The two women grappled for a position trying to gain the upper hand, but neither was able to get a submission. In the final round, that's going to be round three, both fighters gave it their all.

Rosa tried to take Norma Dumont down, but Dumont countered with a vicious knee to Rosa's midsection. Rosa Winston Payne and Dumont saw our chance, launching a flurry of strikes, connecting with several punches and kicks that left Rosa reeling. Rosa managed to stay on her feet, but Norma smelled blood. She continued to press forward. Her strikes becoming more aggressive and precise. Rosa tried to defend herself, but it was no use with just seconds left in the fight.

Norma DuMont lands a powerful right hook that sends Carol Rosa crashing to the canvas. The referee steps in. The fight is stopped. Norma Dumont is the winner by third round T-KK. K-O. Wow. Norman Dumont with a powerful right hand to send her to the mat. That's, that sounds just like Norman Dumont, if I've ever heard anything about her. Six times Santa state champion, Norma Dumont. Thank you very much. Zero knockout wins on her resume. So that's a bit of a tougher scene here. But you know, that just means she's due, Connor. So what I did,

I'm also taking Norman Dumont straight. I did not get her a close money. unfortunately got her at minus 115 so i'm taking to that and i'm throwing a little quarter unit sprinkle tell me tell me by round three k o at plus 4500 wow wow so this would be this would be a quarter unit to win like 12 and a half units or something something insane yes it's uh it's going to be spectacular I'm very excited about it. Oh my gosh. That is, uh, I mean, if that happened, that would blow my mind. That would blow my mind because, uh, yeah, I mean, she has no knockouts.

Like, that would just be crazy to it. I mean, she's due. It would be crazy. This will be one of the greatest things I've ever witnessed. If this ends up being right. It'll make me so, so unreasonably happy if it hits. So that's where we're on. But we are with you on Jumont.

And I like a lot of your breakdown. If I extracting the chat GPT part of it, I like it all. But it doesn't matter because AI has told us third round K.O for Norman Dumont. No doubt. Shout out to Norman Dumont. One half, some say the better half of the greatest main event in UFC history. Dumont Lad back in November of 2021, one of the greatest cards to ever happen. People are saying people have said for a long time.

It's almost an inarguable fact at this point. Let's keep it moving. A heavyweight bout. Muhammad Usman taking on Junior Tafa. Right now you can have Junior Tafa for the price of minus 115. Muhammad Usman coming back minus 105. Usman, the brother of Kumaru. Earth shaking power.

Not a ton of volume. Junior Tafa, the brother of Justin. Taffa. It's the Battle of the Brothers. Who is the better, lesser brother? I love that. I hope that's how they brand. Who is the better, lesser brother? Who is the better, less famous brother? All in all, weird line movement on Sunday. I don't know if you saw this. Muhammad Usman was sitting at like plus 200 and within like hours tanked down to minus 110. There's like he was sitting there for a while and then it happened. I thought about playing Tafah. Really thought about it, but I decided I'm just going to stay away.

Are you playing the over here? I am playing the over and I got to say, as a man with an over bet, let me tell you guys, you should be betting the under. Under one and a half is minus 110. The over is minus 120. And I am coming into this weekend under the expectation that I am lighting this bet on fire. This is just burn this money because neither of these two gentlemen. gentlemen take a lot of time to get their business done.

I mean, I think Usman does have a, maybe a decision win on his resume, but not a lot of them, mostly chaos, frankly, mostly early, and Tafa, even if you look at his kickboxing and boxing, you're still getting into mostly knockouts in relatively short order. I feel like I'm just, this is just me lighting money on fire, but I'm committed. I've got the over one and a half. Yeah, I think there's a world where I play the under. I don't blame you for a second on that. It is highly likely these two dudes come out and chuck them until one guy falls over.

Yeah. Yeah, under one and a half, minus one of three at one book right now. Under two and a half, how do we feel about that? I would feel that is a phenomenal parley piece, would be my guess. Yeah, yeah, minus 250. Not terrible. Not terrible. All right.

That still feels like a good. Good price. Let me see what I can get it on a different book, different book, different book, minus 250. You've got to find the one that's right for you. It's delivering the wine value. Minus 250. Would I be insane? Did you just play that straight?

I don't think you'd be insane. Like I said, I'm already just writing this one up as a lost bet for me, but I'm a man of commitment. Hey, listen, Usman went to two decisions in the tough house. actually when you look at it one two three four four of of usman's last five have gone uh over the one and a half i didn't look at him on this uh i didn't look at the tough house that is true honestly dude if you if you do it you know that's four of five and then six of six of eight not bad i'm here i'm here on it so we'll see you know what i think i think i'm going to stay off of it i mean junior taffa's a madman

It feels like he's just going to push it no matter what and there's really not going to be any wrestling and someone's going to get dropped. Yeah. But yeah. I don't know. Maybe I'll add it. Maybe I'll add the other one.

Think it. You got plenty of time to think it over. Plenty of time to think on it. Let's keep it rolling. Just a few more fights to get into here. Featherweight out. Francis Marshall taking on William Go Me. Right now you can get the Fire Marshal making his return.

Minas 205. William Go Me plus 175. No side for me on this one. I took the over two and a half at even money. both these dudes are are pretty serious prospects like i think the line might be a little wide on francis marshall here think it's going to be close think it's going to be back and forth think they're probably going to mix in the wrestling as well they've been finishing guys on the regional scene lower level dudes francis four of his seven career went over the two and a half go me three of

his last five gone over the two and a half i mean i'm not saying this is a lock by any means but I think this fight goes over two and a half far more than 50%. If you do it 100 times, I'm going to guess it's like 65 times. It goes over the two and a half. And when it was even money, I just had to take it. Base it off math. I'm a math guy. We are a podcast of math and science, if nothing else.

So I'm with you. I don't have any bet. I do think that I briefly considered Go Me. I think this feels like a dog or pass line where it's at, but no bet for me. so good luck good sir thank you good sir let's keep it rolling two more fights to get into on this ufcc card priscilla catchawara taking on corin sylvan a flyway bout right now you can get catcherara plus 160 Silva minus 190 i am on the under at minus money of a women's mama bout plus e v bold stance to take plus evie you tell me um but if i was ever going to do it it

would probably be on this fight because Priscilla Ketjawera is a killer, be killed fighter, and somehow Keren Silva is even more so. One decision in 19 pro fights for Kerenz Silva. So it also has a 35% striking defense, 35%. Ketjara could easily knock her out. I mean, especially if this turns into a brawl and they just start chucking them, which I am going to guess at some point that is going to happen. with a 35% striking defense. Or Silva could take this to the mat and subber. Catch where has already been subbed twice in the UFC. I think both each girl's strength is the other girl's weakness.

And I think someone is going to get exploited and someone is going to get finished. I have zero thoughts on this fight. So go with what Connor says because he's a wise and brilliant man. Wise man down 20 units this year just by the way before you place any bets. last fight on this one all my units colors last one on this one

Bantam way about Dana Baccarol taking on Brady Highstand right now you can have Baccarol for minus 140 high stand plus 120

this line's been all over the place high stand open 170 liked him at plus 170 don't like him at plus 120 don't really want to trust Dana just staying away too much of a tossum I also have zero thoughts

on this fight So let's make our way to Bellator, buddy. Let's do it. Let's do it. We've got a Friday night, Saturday night special over in the Aloha State. It's as good as it gets for Bellator. Liz Carmouche taking on Deanna Bennett on Friday night. And then we have got the Bellator Grand Prix Bantamweight Championship,

Rafian Stats, taking on patchy mix. Do you have any bets for either of these cards? I do. So I've got two bets now, and I may be mixing in. I may cook up one of those greasy, chalky. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. There's some things calling my name. I'll give you my first bet is I mentioned previously I had an open-ended parlay

that I'm going to add that Tavares Silva over one and a half to. The other two legs of it is Rosa Dumont over two and a half. So just feeling that that fight is going to go late. I know that doesn't entirely work with the Chad GPT, but it is a last-minute KO and otherwise those women tend to fight long. So I'm mixing those two with Aaron Pico over on Belittor. Nice, nice. Yeah, I think that's a set-up fight for him to bounce back.

It is very much a set-up fight for him. I still believe in Aaron Pico. He's minus 700 or something. But probably those three together, you get a plus 117 kickout. So I'm okay with that comfortable bit. and I'm taking an underdog I'm taking an underdog to win the Bellator

Bantam Wake Grand Prix I don't know Oh my goodness That's a wolf pack wager right there If I've ever heard one The dogs are barking, baby I am also on patchy mix I had to break the rule

I had to break the rule I'm not going to lie I got a fantastic line on him as he opened I snagged him right at plus one 80, I would still take them at plus money now. I said I wasn't going to do much on Bellator. This is when I had to take.

I love the bet. Patchy makes you so impressive to me. I mean, the Lost Archiletta was clearly a learning moment. You look at what that man has done since that moment. I mean, three finishes, a domination of Kioji Horoguchi, who you ask anybody who's deep in the NBA game, they all have respect for Kioji Horoguchi. This man has been an absolute killing machine. Ralphian Stats, he shouldn't have got a split decision.

Should have just had a clean win over Danny Sabatelo? Obviously did finish one archiletto, so that MMA math is not great for Mix, but we all know MAMA math is fake. It's not real stuff. I think Patsy Mix is going, he's going to be the longer fighter. I think he is a more dynamic on the feet. I think he is arguably a more dynamic grappler, and certainly I think he's a good enough wrestler to,

prevent Stats from taking him down and controlling him as much as he may want to. I love Patchy Mix here. I think he is one of the best Bannam weights in the world. And I think he's going to prove that on Saturday night. No disagreement. If you're ever going to tune into a Bellator fight, this would be a good one. This would be a good one to tune into it, man. I mean, Raffauntz, 19 and 1.

Patchy Mix, 17 and 1. Raffaun Stats only loss ever in his whole career, Marab de Valle. Ville. Like, dude is sick, and they've beat the best of the best in Bellator. Stats has beat Magamette Magamato. So has Patsy Mix. Juan Archeleta, Stats has beat him. Danny Sabatelo, Stats has beat him. Like, this is the tournament playing out in beautiful fashion. Yeah, this is what you look for. This is why tournaments are fun. You maybe lose sight of it. And to be honest, it took too long for this fight to happen. All the momentum around it feels like dissipated.

But on Saturday night, if it's between watching this fight and whatever the UFC's got going on, I'm watching this fight. It's going to be a great fight. The rest of the card is still decent. You know, Yantam Madares is always fun. Rayborg Kiroji Horaguchi should be a good fight. Assuming Rayborg can make weight, always a question. We already talked about Aaron Pico.

Alima Le Mokfarben, kind of Watanabe is a good fight. Like, it's a good card, and this main event is sick. I'm very excited to watch it because we're going to find out. whoever wins this fight is a top five bannam weight in the world one of the five best guys in the world at one of the best weight classes in the world so it's it is actually something worth watching which you can't say all the time about bellator certainly if you're thinking chalky mchalk chalk chalk parley are there any your uh you're like got your eye on right now all right so i'm thinking chalky well i've already got pico so i probably won't double up on pico right but um i would

it's probably going to start with the Liz Karmouche, who I think is going to beat Deanna Bennett. It feels very much like she's going to beat Deanna Bennett. And similarly, Danny Sabatello feels like a somewhat of a set-up fight with Marcus Brenno. Not entirely because Brenno is young and maybe you hope that he can do something, but doesn't, this feels like it should be a Danny Sabatello kind of fight. And then that's where I would start with it.

And then we're just going to look around and see, you know, because they're not as mini wide chalk and they're like i don't want yancey maderos i don't feel yancey madero shouldn't be in a parlay for me but you know carmouche pico sabatelo gets us to minus 149 it's not bad i might want to find one more for plus money but i don't hate if you add you'reguchi if you add horaguchi it goes to plus 140 i don't hate that though i don't i think i'd want to stay away from horoguchi but But maybe just a minus 149 for that. I feel really confident in all three of those people to get it done. I also will say, I think there might be a little bit of value in Arlene Blencoe.

Or Blencoe, however you pronounce it. Oh, again, Sarah McMahon. Against Sarah McMahon. Sarah McMahon has a long and storied history of just screwing the pooch in fights that she should not lose. Juliana Pena should have never lost it, but get submitted in there. Marianne Rano is not nearly the fighter Sarah McMahon is, and she found a way to get submitted. She has a history of falling short, and, you know, big signing for Bellator. She comes over, falls short in this moment, feels a bit of a trope even at this point.

So you could convince me if somebody out here was really trying to sell me, you could sell me on making that as a bet as an underdog. bed as well. What do we think of Davion Franklin? Who's David and Franklin fighting? Kasim Aris. I don't know that person off the top of my head. He's going to be six inches taller than him. And Qasim Aris has never fought for a major promotion. Hold on. I'm only a little kind of walk because I'm starting to think he might be a wrestler. Yeah, I think he is a wrestler. His one loss is by chest bike.

I've never seen that before. Oh, that's incredible. He got disqualified for biting the dude's chest. So you know he's got that dog in him, is what I'm hearing. I mean, he's definitely got that dog in a fight against a dude. Wow, I need to find the tape on this. Probellum won in Liverpool back in, what did this happen? Wow, this was right as the pandemic was starting to, March 7th, 2020,

and he bit the dude's chest to get disqualified against the guy. guy that was six, eight. Wow. What a scene that must have been. That is, I mean, and that retired the dude. That retired, bro. Mendogus Gerv. He jumped up to bite the chest? Like, how does he even get the I need to see the tape. A mendongus Gerv retired after getting his chest bit by Casimaris. I don't even really know how to deal with that. All right. So. We're just going to only. Davey on Franklin out. So the Bellator website says Decorated Amateur Wrestling

Career in the German Bundesliga. Bundesliga. They have a wrestling Bundesliga as well. I thought that was just soccer. I know that they have like other Bundesliga like basketball or whatever. Yeah, I think they have a Bundesliga handball too.

But I did not know they had a wrestling one. Hold on. Let me, I might have found something. Okay, so Greco-Roman silver medalist in the 2005 World Junior Wrestling Championships. Okay. One I found from him. I can't see you find a ton of other stuff. Obviously, as you can tell, listeners, I haven't done a deep dive on the undercloth.

Listen, there's like 94 Bellator fights this week. Yeah. Yeah, we don't really have that much time in our hands. All right. That's Bellator. I don't have anything else. Just the patchy mix. Maybe a chalky parlay.

Maybe you might get me on board for this Karmouche, Pico, Sabatello. I mean, we've done great work. I believe you have one last bet, though, and then we can get out of here. One last thing that I wanted to get into, biggest boxing match of the year takes place on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

Trivante Tank Davis taking on Ryan Garcia. Sick fight. Cannot wait for this one. As good as it gets. As good as it gets. Two megastars going at it, two knockout artists going at it on the biggest stage. Put the belts aside. Don't care.

We're getting this matchup. It's fantastic. Someone's O has got to go, and it's probably going to be by finish, which will be a bad light on their highlight reel. I'm going to take Davis, Garcia, over five and a half. I took that alt-line minus 225. the last seven fights for Tank Davis have gone over that five and a half. Ryan Garcia, it's tough to judge because some of these matchups are tailor-made for him to get first-round knockouts. But when he does go against tough competition, he typically goes much longer than when it's a set-up fight.

This is obviously not a set-up fight. This is his toughest test, without a doubt. I am also going to take a stab at fight ends rounds 9 through 12 plus 400. I think this one's going to go longer than people believe. I've seen a couple of people be like, oh, yeah, tank rounds one through six. Just like, I just, I would be, I would be very surprised if that happens

just because tank A is a slow starter and B, biggest fight of their careers. Biggest moment of their entire lives, I imagine they're going to come out more cautious than usual, feeling out process, toughest test for both of them. I do think someone's going to get finished, but I think it is going to be in those later rounds.

who's going to get finished? If I had to guess, I would probably say Ryan Garcia just because he moves back and forth. He doesn't really move laterally. Tank Davis is going to be able to capitalize on that. Ryan Garcia leaves his hands down quite a bit. The inside game, Tank Davis all day. But the left took from hell, man. Ian Garcia can throw that thing and he can't put people out.

Someone gets dropped. I'm going to say in rounds nine through 12. Biggest bet, though, over five and a half. So I think, because I don't have any action down on this, but I do think Davis is going to win. I'm just not all the way sold on Ryan Garcia. Maybe he'll surprise me to show out. I mean, he's got a lot of attributes.

You can't take that away from the kid. A lot of attributes out there. But for whatever reason, it hasn't clicked for me. It feels like maybe he's just not that. Whereas I know Davis is, extremely good. And so I think looking over it, I might get in on Davis to win in round seven through 12 at plus 220.

Don't mind that. Don't mind that shout at all. Fandle right now. I agree that this is, they're going to be a little tense. They're going to come out a little tentative. They're not going to risk it all too early. Do you think this will play a little later. But, I mean, ultimately, they're going to be exchanging.

They've both got power. We're probably getting a finish. I favor Davis. Yeah. 7 to 12 rounds plus 220. I think I like that. Fandle right now is offering like a fight starts round 7 and tank to win like plus 150 or something, but plus 220 because I do think someone's going to get put out. But don't be shocked.

Do not be shocked. Don't come crying to me if this goes to a decision. I would not be stunned. What are the odds on this going to decision? You can get it as high as plus 290 right now. geez also i just looked at the draw just to see not not enough juice but i am one of those guys who kind of likes to throw draw bets down particular on high level boxing matches because well i don't believe that the sport is rigged sometimes it sure feels like it is and what would

make more sense to these two dudes than to fight to a draw and back this money truck up yet again but a plus 16 that's not enough i'd like no no no no that is that is not uh i just said I love it because I just kind of zoned out there for a second. Don't love plus 1,800 draw. Over two and a half is, or over five and a half is my big bet of the night. Then I got a little sprinkle on the ends in rounds nine through 12. So hopefully, yeah, we just get like a ninth round knockout by Tank Davis and we both win. Fantastic.

Either way, it's going to be a sick fight, dude. It's going to be fantastic. Can't wait for that. That's the show. That's everything. I think I got like 10, singles, two parlays for the weekend. Hopefully we're coming back in the green.

Another good weekend. I don't know. We'll see next week. Card is, man. It's better now. It's better now, but it's not good. It's better now, but, like, we were also just going to get this fight anyway. Like, I wish they had just made this fight. I don't know how to feel.

Next week's not great. Apex again. Ricky Simone, Song and Dong, main event. It's an apex card. It's never going to be great, but that's it. We out. That's it. See you next week.

Love you all. To the Vox Media Podcast Network.