Modern Wisdom - #443 - Tom Nash - The Financial Impact Of Russia's Invasion

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello friends, welcome back to the show. My guest today is Tom Nash. He's a financial analyst, investor, and a YouTuber. The stock market has had a wild couple of years, rounding that off with a full-scale Russian invasion makes understanding the current global financial situation and how to not end up on the receiving end of it even more complex. Thankfully, Tom is a Russian and he's here to help. Expect to learn why Russia's economy has started struggling so quickly, just how big of a deal being taken off Swift really is. What it's like to hear Vladimir Putin speak if you can actually understand Russian. Tom's advice on how not to invest your money over

Starting point is 00:00:39 the coming months, whether crypto is the answer what's happening with real estate and much more. This is not an episode about how to profit here from a conflict going on in Eastern Europe. It is, however, an episode on how to play defence, as Tom calls it. How to protect the money that you've worked hard to earn from being annihilated by a war that we don't know how long it's going to go on for. I appreciate Tom, his YouTube channel is dope and you should go and check it out if you enjoy what you hear today. And we do get to talk about some other fun stuff, his relationship with his kids and his

Starting point is 00:01:15 feelings about becoming a father and also our favorite YouTube channels. It's not all doom and gloom. And Tom definitely has a way of making the financial apocalypse sound a lot more fun than it actually is. But now, please welcome Tom Nash, fucking the show. Welcome Chris, we could not have picked a better time to talk. I think that pretty much right now is 2022 and yet somehow, don't you feel like this is 1960s and we're dealing with the new crisis again? I mean this is insane. What a time to be a Russian man.

Starting point is 00:02:11 Yeah, not not a good time to be a Russian to be honest. Russia is cancelled. I don't know if you heard literally. I mean, I think Putin miscalculated cancel culture. I've said it before and I said again, he's too old to understand how it works. Like we're canceled. Yeah, but cancel culture up against a 200,000 person army with missiles and an Air Force, surely that's not a big deal. Look, even Hollywood who sent John Cena to apologize to China is now not sending movies

Starting point is 00:02:49 to Russia, I mean look at the countries I've said it earlier today that voted with Russia on the UN General Assembly. I ran Syria, Eritrea and Belarus which for all the purposes of Belarus is just quite a rush up. So, you know how a lot of friends live, my guy, if you're putting... Oh, it's tough. Do you know the channel Nofuckers? No, no.

Starting point is 00:03:21 Nofuckers is a Russian channel, run by a guy guy named Roman and he spells it with NFK RZ That's how the channel name and he's a really cool dude and he just made a video showing exactly what it looks like to get money Of a ATM in Moscow or sorry cent per cent Petersburg so basically Showing like a bunch of like a 200 people trying to get into the door into the bank and the security guard saying there's no money here get the like post apocalyptic scenes out of Moscow and St. Petersburg basically no money in the ATMs nothing works credit cards don't work pretty much anywhere you have to pay with cash and I mean you can't get it now the crazy part is now there's

Starting point is 00:04:02 new regulation in Russia basically if you own any foreign currency, you have 70 dollars or so to exchange it to rubles, like 80 percent of it. You can't keep it anymore. So, if you have in your bank account, if you had some dollars or some euros or some GBP, what happens if you don't convert it? I don't, legal sanctions. I mean, you don't want to test it out. If you're a law-abiding citizen, I mean, look, the problem is, what do central banks do? What's the main job of the central bank? To make sure that the state's

Starting point is 00:04:40 partial currency doesn't go ballistic. It needs to be stable. The way you do it is you regulate it like an oven. And the way you regulate it is with buying and selling, right? If your state's points of currency is going down, you buy some of it. And if it's going too much up, you sell some of it, right? To do that, you need dollars. My guy, you need foreign currency to regulate. And if you don't have foreign currency, basically, and there's panic mode, which is definitely

Starting point is 00:05:11 the case right now, everybody's selling out. That's why the rubble is now rubble. It's pretty much, it's nothing. Because, and that's why they're telling you, hey, sell all your foreign currency, because the central bank's literally needs just to take it from the citizens right now. They need foreign currency liquidity from their citizens so that they can use it to control their own. So what's happened to the state of the rubble now?

Starting point is 00:05:39 It's very close to, it's on the path to 1998. What's that mean? That means the high-prinflation. So there's a few economists who commented on this, and I can tell you from friends on the ground, that prices of electronics have gone like 40% up within five days. There's a lot of economists that are saying that if this

Starting point is 00:06:01 continues for a few more days, we're looking at anywhere from 50% to 70% inflation within a week, bro. This is not 1984. When you take a country off the grid, this is what happens. It basically money becomes worthless, hyperinflation, and then you sell your, everything you own for your next lunch. This is literally what happened in Russia in the late 90s. Like, we've seen this happen. And the problem is that while 1998 happened, Russia was not spending $20 billion a day on the war, which is something you also have to take into account. That war is costing a lot of money Not to mention the fact that this Ricki-ass army is stuck in the mud because of a logistical nightmare But I mean even that you know whatever attempt of I don't understand

Starting point is 00:06:55 I'm not a military strategist. I don't understand this all I'm saying. I'm a money guy this war is expensive and He just got cockplock From accessing any sort of foreign currency. All right, so that was the biggest mistake by the way. Let's go from the absolute top. People that don't understand what's happened in terms of financial sanctions, what the impacts have been, what they actually mean for Russia. This story about Swift was going to happen. It wasn't going to happen now. It's happened. Like, let's just take it from the top all the way down. What's happened financially with regards to Russia?

Starting point is 00:07:27 You have to understand we're starting from the middle of the story, but we can do it, but we have to go back to the origins. Take us from the start. We can go from the beginning. No, no, no, but this is a, let's start with the middle, then go back. So, Putin's plan all along was basically

Starting point is 00:07:42 to create a feud between NATO itself. So NATO is basically to be honest three countries that dominate NATO. US, it's Germany and it's Great Britain or England or UK whatever you want to call it. I get confused. I never know what the fuck you guys are called. Anyways, so it's like Switzerland, which language do they speak? I don't understand. What are their nationality? Like, I'm so confused by Switzerland bro.

Starting point is 00:08:12 Like, what is this country? Like, what's the language? Well, I think you're just, have your men, it's like, Swiss people bro, they're more confused than Canadians. And I love Swiss people and I love me some Canadians, but check this out. Basically, Putin said, hey, listen, the Germans, the Germans, they need me.

Starting point is 00:08:31 Now that they've basically shut down nuclear reactors and understand why they did it, right? And they don't want to burn coal anymore out of environmental concerns. They need my gas. They need my gas and I own them because 60% of Germany's energy is coming from Russia. Imagine having that kind of power, especially in the winter. I don't know how, look, you think you know how much it's getting cold, you don't know cold until you've seen like true German cold, bro. I mean, I know you guys invented the color damp over there in the UK, but I mean, true German cold

Starting point is 00:09:09 is like, it's vicious. Even now, even in February, even in March, it's gonna be cold for a while. Now, imagine having that sort of power if you rush in. And you're saying, and on the flip side of it, you have another dominant NATO member, which is the US, which doesn't give a fuck about Putin's energy. They couldn't give less fucks about it. I thought that they were relatively dependent on Putin's energy because they've shut down their own energy independence.

Starting point is 00:09:34 That's Germany. No, I thought that America was the same as well. America is energy independent, which is exactly where you want to be. America has their own natural gas, they have their own oil, they have everything they need internally, they don't need to buy, they buy shit, but I mean, their energy independent, which means they don't need anybody else. I thought that they scaled back the production, the pipelines, they were increasingly dependent on Russia, are you saying that that's not true? They don't, they don't, I don't exactly know the numbers of how much they're buying and selling but Once you have a potential energy independence, it doesn't really matter

Starting point is 00:10:09 I don't know exactly how much they're buying to my understanding US is not dependent. It's nowhere near if anything to what's going on in Germany in Italy and In generally in the EU we can look up the numbers later, but I don't think so. For years and years, the European Union have been basically trying to have this debate about, well, everybody is too dependent on Russia. So 40% of the European gas consumption is Russia, and the worst of the mall is Germany, with 60%. And they haven't done nothing about it because, I mean, why would you? It's cheap gas. It's convenient. And you know, it's working. Why, you know, why talk about something that might happen one day, right? Why prepare? So when Putin, I think started this, that's why, if, okay, let's divide the world, right?

Starting point is 00:10:59 You have the people who are hawkish on Putin, which is the US, and you have the Davish, which is you and mainly Germany, up until just a few days ago. That's the way it always worked. And every time there's a little bit of a problem, Germany is appeasing and basically saying, okay, okay, chill, chill, chill, and the US is a sanctions, so Putin knew that if he's going to start this turmoil in Ukraine, whatever happens, he knew he's going to get sanctioned by the US.

Starting point is 00:11:23 That's why he completely de- be dollarized his entire exports. He went from 95% to 10% dollars. Why, myself? For the past four years, he'd been slowly prepping for this. Now, he has some yens, but mainly it's yours. Because he never thought that the Germans will basically say, well, I mean, you've gone too far. Because they can't. And there is a reason why he did this when he did this.

Starting point is 00:11:52 And the reason people saying, oh, it's Trump, it's not about Trump or Biden. It's about inflation in the US, which is a 40 year high, which means they can't afford high oil prices. And because even though they don't buy really, and we can check the numbers later, Russian oil, they buy shit that are being produced with Russian oil, which means they'll feel the price. And besides, you know, oil is a global pricing mechanism, so it doesn't really matter. So he started this knowing that inflation in the US is super high, so they're super sensitive to oil prices. And also in the winter, so he knows that the Europeans don't want any interruption right now. And he thought I think that he thought process was, well, I'm going to,

Starting point is 00:12:31 I'm going to push in Ukraine. They're not going to interrupt me because Ukraine is not NATO and they will not risk a nuclear war with me for Ukraine. And the Germans are basically going to get into a fight with the US. And then I'm going to destabilize NATO, and I'm going to create a fight between them, and I'll take Ukraine. And I'll be ready for US sanctions because I'm completely enduro's. Yeah, so the presumption was that Germany wasn't going to push back because of their energy dependence on Russia, and that America would want to push back because it's relatively energy independent.

Starting point is 00:13:04 This would create conflict between Germany specifically as one of them. And America, America wants more sanctions, Germany wants fewer sanctions. There's your friction. Meanwhile, you can move forward. Is that what you're saying? The plan was financially precisely. And if you look at the first few days of the military operation, this is exactly how it played out.

Starting point is 00:13:23 You remember how Germany refused to allow anybody to send German-made arms to Ukraine in the beginning and how they just agreed to send some helmets over there. Now Germany has a long-standing embargo on, they don't send traditionally weapons to conflict regions because of their history obviously, but But, you know, I mean, there are a lot of explaining to do. But all I'm saying is, so Germany was basically pushing back in the beginning. And they were actually more closer to the German position because when it started, the narrative was,

Starting point is 00:13:57 well, if he stops with these pieces of Ukraine, which already the fact to owns, let's be honest, since 2014, if he stops with Lugansk and Danietzk, let's be honest, since 2014. If he stops with Lugansk and Danieck, we'll just let him have it. That was the sentiment and that was being led by Germany. You know what, fuck it, he already owns it anyways, it just makes it official, we don't care. And I think that his biggest miscalculation, and I think tell me if you think that's right, Chris. When you surround yourselves with yes men and you completely kill anybody with an opposing

Starting point is 00:14:31 opinion, you create this echo chamber where I think nobody told him, hey, the Germans might push back. I don't think anybody in his team actually told them that. And I don't know if you see in this But there's a very famous viral clip that circulating where he was interrogating his own head of intelligence But whether they should or should not invade Ukraine and The guys like and you're talking about the head the mains the head spy of Russia. So it's a bad man. It's not a This is a killer, bro. Okay, And he was basically up there and saying,

Starting point is 00:15:05 well, Mr. Putin, I think we should maybe try and negotiate a little bit more. He's like, and then he gave him the dust there. It's like, are you saying that we shouldn't negotiate more? I said, no, no, no, I don't, I don't, like, basically, you could, why was this televised? Oh, he televised the whole thing. There was like this kangaroo horde.

Starting point is 00:15:21 So he put all of them like, he was at the head of the table, like 30 meters away, they all got a chair and he went one by one asking his head advisors if they should invade Ukraine a lot. So is that basically a test of compliance? It will you say yes to me when I want to do, like everybody knows what he wants to do. Is he actually looking for pushback?

Starting point is 00:15:40 It's a theater. He's not looking for pushback. It's a theater. Okay, yes, that's what I mean. Can you try just one thing that I've thought there. Obviously, you speak Russian. And for everybody else, what we're doing is we're looking at the subtitles or the dubbing over the top.

Starting point is 00:15:53 How would you characterize Putin's demeanor with the way that he speaks? You know, we have people like a Barack Obama who's quite a powerful orator, sort of a peaceful calm. How would you Characterize the way that put in his It's a very good question. I've never been asked that you know He's very different From other world leaders. He's very articulate in Russian Even though he's kind of a simple guy, he's not like

Starting point is 00:16:25 hyper-educated and he doesn't use sophisticated words. But there's a certain conviction in the way he says things, which the way Russians have been basically within condition to look for the strong man. Russia, if you take out the 10 years of 1990 to 2000, we always had a guy. Okay, that's our guy. They don't need Barack Obama. Barack Obama would not last in Russia.

Starting point is 00:16:58 Donald Trump probably would, you see where I'm going with it, so it's much closer to Donald Trump than Barack Obama. He's basically, he'll say what he thinks and he'll be very aggressive and he's not gonna play politically correct Like in his speech about the war he was saying hey Ukraine doesn't have a right to exist It's run by a bunch of drug addicts and neo Nazis and we're gonna take it back because Ukraine is not even in real country It's just a bunch of idiots who are puppet government. La-bola. It's like no world leader talks like that. Can you imagine anybody?

Starting point is 00:17:29 And that's, it's really tailored, suited for the Russian audience. He's a hero that they're gonna be seduced by. Yes. And also don't forget, he controls all the media internally. Like Russian people are not that exposed, at least like the older generation, they don't expose to Reddit and shit, so that's the news they're getting. All right, so take me back. We've got, that's the situation at least when the initial invasion

Starting point is 00:17:55 occurred. Run through some of the financial sanctions that have happened and what the impact has been on Russia from there. Well, mainly the main thing they did is look, they took individual banks off of Swift, which is pretty much a death sentence to banks. Swift is basically a system where banks, a unified standardized system where banks can talk to each other to transfer money internationally. There's a, I don't remember the full words, it's a Belgian system, it's been adopted worldwide.

Starting point is 00:18:33 If you take banks off of that system, it's pretty much your screw. Now they did that and mostly what was interesting is they also went for the Russian national bank not just individual they went for the biggest banks in Russia not all of them but also they went for the central bank when you say went for what you mean they basically took it off partially from Swiss now here's the thing when they sanctioned the central bank and they're saying nobody can touch that, nobody can work with this bank. I mean, technically they can still transfer money, technically, but nobody in the right

Starting point is 00:19:11 mind would do it because when you have the US and the EU and the rest of the world, literally everybody is basically saying, we're not dealing with you. It's basically, they're taking away his war chest. That bank was the war chest that he built for this. So he created, his central bank is sitting on 650 billion dollars of cash. In dollars? In foreign currency, various foreign currencies. Some of it, 130 billion is in gold, which is, I mean, his to keep.

Starting point is 00:19:42 I mean, that money we can't't touch but everything else is foreign currency It's dollars and euros and whatever it's it's a mixture and them taking away About 500 out of the 640 billion and basically saying you can touch this it's really limiting To what he can do because obviously it's going to be a decent economy. For an idiot like me who doesn't understand how the financial markets work, when you say you can't touch this, I'm going to guess that's technically not right.

Starting point is 00:20:16 He could touch it, the point is that it's only useful if he's unable to trade it with a country that's prepared to buy it and by being taken off of Swift, the function that he was able to exchange that. Okay, yeah, yeah. So it's not like the money's gone, but the only function that the money has is when it's in trade with another country and because he can't do that because of Swift, that's now being killed.

Starting point is 00:20:36 It's the fact that the technicals are not that important. The fact is the money is not usable, which is the important part. And when the money is not usable, it's basically there's a war machine that needs to be fed and he doesn't have the finance to feed it. And the problem is when you have that, look, it's an expensive war. Ukraine isn't, you remember when he invaded to Georgia?

Starting point is 00:20:59 They're not the state in the US. He invaded a country called Georgia. It's, it was a couple hundred, a hundred thousand people. Ukraine is one third of the sides of Russia, and Russia is ginormous. Ukraine is a massive country. Like 30, 40 million people, it's insanely huge. I don't know if you know how to explain to this. And the thing about Ukraine is, which is the second part where I think he misandestimated what's going on,

Starting point is 00:21:32 is that like with Germany, that basically came out and said, you know what, this has gone too far. We're basically, we dare you not to send the gas to us. Because when Germany came out and said this, they're still on the gas. To my knowledge, there's not been any interruptions and provision of gas because Germany is basically telling me, hey, we call your bluff. Like, you need this as much as we need the gas. Russia.

Starting point is 00:21:58 They need the money from Germany. They need the money when there's no war. 40% of Russian budget is digging shit from the ground and selling it to other people. It's a rickety ass economy with no modern fucking basis. It's just the most unsophisticated economy in the world. So when like almost half of your economy is selling energy. So I dare you, they basically told them we dare you not to send the guys to us. And he did, it's still going on.

Starting point is 00:22:27 So they called this bluff. More importantly, what he didn't actually take into account is Germany saying, you know what? We're done being like Kumbai Aron, the campfire. We're going to arm ourselves to the teeth and because this diplomacy thing isn't working with you. you're crazy. So, and again, a certain amount of circumstances happened that I don't think you understood, when Angela Merkel stepped down, nobody really knew who all of Schultz is and what kind of guy he is.

Starting point is 00:23:00 Apparently he's a kind of guy that don't take no shit from nobody, because he just came out on Friday and said, hey, yeah, we're going to spend a hundred billion euros this year on upgrading a military. And from now on, going forward, 2% of our GDP, which is insane, bro, is going to go to military. Because without the stick, this diplomacy thing is meaningless. We just saw what you did in Ukraine. So he basically created a unification of NATO. They're all on board right now. He's isolated and Germany is basically becoming a fucking military superpower, which is exactly what he didn't want.

Starting point is 00:23:34 So it's a gross miscalculation. Now the main problem here is, and that boggles my mind how he didn't think about it. When Ukraine, bro, some of the toughest people I know are Ukrainians, bro. Like these are people, I have Ukrainian friends who can live a whole week on the potato and the fucking egg, bro. Like you don't, you haven't seen toughness until you've seen some Ukrainian. I'm not even exaggerating, bro.

Starting point is 00:23:58 These are tough people they live off the land. You know what they did to the Nazis, bro. Like they would, they would hide in the woods for 20 years and fucking comments stab you in the ass every day. If you talk about horrible guerrilla warfare, bro, and like partisans, like Ukraine is never gonna fucking be quiet, bro. This is what I said, I said that I'd have that Jake Hanrahan conflict in the border on recently. And he was telling me that one of the problems that you have, if Russia does end up taking, let's say it takes Kiev, right, that then once you've managed to stop moving forward, it goes

Starting point is 00:24:29 house to house, it goes guerrilla warfare. You don't know if the person that's walking down the street with the overcoat on is going to buy bottler milk, or if he's got an AK-47 under there in a molotov. Most likely he has an AK-47 because they fucking gave those out like candy, bro. Can you imagine a country that's giving out AK-47s? Now, come over to the townhouse, grab your AK-47 in a couple of magazines. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:24:55 Fighting side by side with Vasily Lomachenko and Alexander Usik. Bro, what about the brothers the the glitch go brothers bro what are they doing they're literally on the fucking barricades bro with the other guys did I see that I saw a post on Instagram earlier on today saying that

Starting point is 00:25:15 they'd shot some people they were like oh yeah we killed 10 people today there's probably a lot more violence going on that we know of and probably there's innocent people getting shot because when you arm citizens There's probably a lot more violence going on that we know of and probably There's innocent people getting shot because when you arm citizens with AK-47s There's a lot of people who are gonna unnecessarily get hurt. Can you try and I had this conversation about Ukraine? Obviously you've got friends

Starting point is 00:25:38 I'm gonna guess that is still in Russia. Maybe even some extended family that are in Russia. What's the atmosphere like in there? What's the sense? Well, there was a Russian CNBC was on today and they had this lady talking to a guy who's like a professional bond trader and shit and he was basically saying, you know what? I think I'm going to have to look for a new job as a fucking Santa Claus because this is gone. It's like, well, that's once a year. It says, it all figured out.

Starting point is 00:26:08 Then it pops out a bottle of booze and it just drinks it on air. It's like, this is over. Now it's comedic and it's kind of funny, but I mean, it's really sad if you think about it. Because the vast majority of people who are going to get hurt by this are basically being held hostage if you think about it.

Starting point is 00:26:25 It's just regular people who want to go to work, come home, eat lunch, fuck their wife, go to bed, wake up the next morning, do the same shit every day. I don't know a lot of Russian people who want Russia to be at war with Ukraine. It's literally as crazy as US going to war with Canada. It's unthinkable to me. Is the split the majoritvly age, do you think you're going to have people that are a little bit older that are probably going to be more in support? No, it's crazy.

Starting point is 00:26:55 Like most, okay, so it's crazy. So all, all their people, they tell you, oh, we don't want the war in Ukraine, but we support Putin. The older people, they like, they're in love with him. And the younger people are like they're basically like what the fuck is this? The hell is going on. I mean look there's definitely there's this uh theme that's I've seen a lot of pseudo experts talk about it and they say, well, what if Canada signed a treaty with China for a strategic alliance and they put nukes on their border with the US?

Starting point is 00:27:35 Would the US not go to war with Canada? I mean, theoretically, maybe, we don't know. But the fact is that we have a country that's been talking about joining NATO. It's not even in the cards yet. They don't have any nukes because they gave their nukes up in 1994, by the way for assurances, by the West, that they'll protect them if Russia ever invades. We saw how that played out. So a country with no nukes, they're not a part of the, okay, they want to join NATO.

Starting point is 00:28:03 Okay, I get it. But I totally understand why people are pissed off at this. It's like this is completely uncool form. It's just senseless violence. And I think personally that there's a lot of religious elements to this. I think that these 70 years old were almost 70. And I think he has this fantasy of recreating whatever it was when he was the head of the KGB or whatever it was.

Starting point is 00:28:32 But he was a pro... You said on your video that to be a sa, you can't just have one country, you need to have a kingdom. And right now he doesn't have a kingdom. I would say, based on the videos that I've seen, it appears to be one insult after another by NATO pushing forward, doing things that they said that they weren't going to do, compromising on promises that they previously made. And then this is Putin, maybe

Starting point is 00:28:58 the timing is right with regards to the season, with regards to where the currencies are. In fact, America is such an, yeah, yeah, I get that. But I don't know, given what I know about the internals of his political movement, it kind of doesn't surprise me. There was going to come a point where this was going to happen. But let me ask you a question, Chris. NATO, if you look at the map, 1997 to right now, NATO is definitely expanded and they took a lot of its former allies with them. But the question I

Starting point is 00:29:33 want to ask you, of you is one simple question. Okay, NATO is all expanding beyond what was the original understandings when the Berlin wall fell. So they basically Russia got basically pushed aside and the West of the day, you don't matter anymore, fine, that happened. And I understand the insult. Definitely understand the insult by somebody who grew up in that system went through the humiliation, became I think a taxi driver after that and had to climb all the way back. It's like, used to be a tax driver after the collapse of the USSR. So he experienced the brunt of it. Like he was stationed in the East Berlin,

Starting point is 00:30:13 like a KGB blah, blah, blah, going up in the ranks and then understand that. But assuming all of it is 100% true. Does this give you the right to say, well, NATO is overexpending, so I'm going to take the sovereign country who does not do anything offensive against me. I'm going to take the sovereign country and I'm just going to grab it. I'm going to bombard fucking the living hell out of it. I'm just going to take it because NATO is overexpending. I mean, I don't see the justification here.

Starting point is 00:30:41 No, me neither, but I think it's too simplistic, the people that are accusing Putin of just being an idiot or a madman or a psychopath. The guy may be aggressive in nature and he may be prepared to do things where the tolerances don't make sense for other countries, but you know, step by step by step. Again, I don't think that it's the right thing to do, obviously, because I'm not a psychopath, but I like that. There is a logical progression that we've gone through here, right, to get Russia as a country to the stage where this has happened. It's not as if it's something that's just happened overnight. Again, the response isn't the way that it should have gone, but it does seem to me like the people that it's too simplistic and too basic of an explanation to say, oh, it's just, I don't, I don't think he's just

Starting point is 00:31:35 doing it because it's just, it's just a giant born mania. Yeah, yeah, he's not a James Bond film, this is not a movie. This is not like, oh, there's definitely, he's not a James Bond villain. This is not a movie. This is not like oh, there's definitely There's definitely Yeah, but also there's a very famous researcher that passed away in the in 1989 Barbara Tuckman She used to write a lot about political science and geopolitics and global politics and to write a lot about political science and geopolitics and global politics.

Starting point is 00:32:05 And she, one of the main lines that you can see throughout her work is basically she showed how some of the most influential critical decisions that were made on the global politics ring was driven by emotional and positive responses by people who were at position of power. And she gives a lot of examples. The most amusing one to me was her going back to the French Revolution. And basically, well, how did Louis didn't understand what was going on? And basically, she said, well, he was busy with trying to figure out if Mary and Tonette was fucking round with his brother or not for the past two years before the revolution

Starting point is 00:32:46 He was fucking psychopath a neurotic jealous husband, so he completely missed the you know the doom the doom the scenario But there's definitely a mixture. I think of everything here. There's definitely a strategic thinking behind Well, he wants to clap back at NATO for sure. There's definitely, I think, him saying, I'm going to bring back the USSR, at least some sort of a quasi-strong kind of Russia 2.0.

Starting point is 00:33:21 And he's been very systematic with getting it done, by the way. For all the 10 Superposes, Belarus is no longer even Belarus, it's just a name. So he already has the guy in place to replace Zalinsky. So however, at the end of the day and here's where I think the problem lies. Strategic, yes, emotional, somewhat for sure. But if you and I would have thought before that, giving the balance of power with the European energy consumption, would Germany actually go all full on the ham on him like they did and somewhat okay. So oil price, I don't know if you follow the crude oil, but you don't give a shit. So we just came off of, I think usually like the price is in the 80s, 80 dollars per barrel, it's tolerable. A hundred dollars per barrel is considered like oh this is

Starting point is 00:34:47 like a wartime pricing right. We're currently at like 111, 112. So this happened real fast. So all prices crude oil is going through the roof. Commodities is going through the roof obviously you know Russia is you know weathe Paladium aluminum They, they, they dig shit from the ground over there. That's the whole, that's the whole business model, right? Also, what's happening in the US is very interesting. Military contractors are, are flying high, Raytheons, the general dynamics, all of these are going flying high. Cyber security is flying high, port in that,

Starting point is 00:35:24 Crowdstrike, and even Palantir had a little bit flying high, port in that, crowd strike. And even Palantir had a little bit of upswing, even though they're kind of giving it back. But I think in general, the US stock market has been fine. It had a little bit of an invasion day slump, and then it's basically business is usual. It's going up. Jerome Powell was on TV yesterday saying,

Starting point is 00:35:45 hey, we're only raising interest just a little bit, just a tiny bit, just to feel how it feels like. And basically everybody said, well, good, where we, so I would say largely un, unaffected. But the thing is, look, as big as Russia is, the exposure of the SAP 500 to the Russian economy, honestly, is like 0.1%. It doesn't do anything, pro. Russia is just a big shit from the ground. They sell like energy and resources. There's not a technological hub.

Starting point is 00:36:18 There's not a lot of Russian companies on NASDAQ or in the New York Stock Exchange. There's just not a lot of exposure. In banking, there is, like, there's a few banks who have high exposure to Europe and Russia, but that's pretty much it. What are you doing then? So a lot of messages that I've had from friends over the last week or so

Starting point is 00:36:36 has been around, shit, man, what's going to happen with the stock market? I've got investments, I've got crypto, I've got properties, I've got cash, I've got gold, not trying to capitalize from a wartime problem. But the other way to look at this is people, well, yeah, precisely, that people who haven't done anything wrong, you know, just some guy in the middle of America who's been saving up and buying things and trying to invest appropriately could if the situation was responded to more differently with the US stock market could end up being wiped out

Starting point is 00:37:10 by something that's happening on the other side of the planet. So what's your personal strategy or what would you say to people around? Here are some things that I would probably avoid over the next, however long, here are some places that I would keep an eye on, etc. Okay, so there's two questions here and they have completely different answers. So the more interesting question is crypto, which you ask, which is very smart, because whatever just happened right now is a second proof of the importance of cryptocurrency just after what happened in Canada. So I'm not a big crypto guy, but I understand the importance

Starting point is 00:37:46 of having decentralized currency. When just a little while ago, everybody was talking about Canada and the Canadian regulation basically allowed the government to dip into people's banks accounts and take money if they thought they were related to the protest. It's crazy. So proof number one, then we have a couple of weeks go by, now we have proof number two, right now. And again, we're talking, assuming we're

Starting point is 00:38:13 talking about law abiding, tax paying normal fucking engineers who don't give a shit about Russia or Ukraine, but there's stuck in fucking Russia and they need a way to feed their family, right? What do you have other than crypto bro to do that right now? The rubles basically deflating faster than a drunk man and a tylan whore house. Basically, so it's worthless or it's about to be. So if you ever needed a proof of concept of how crypto plays a role in modern economy in this chaotic world, you have it right now and The main part is that people were attacking crypto for the past few years basically. Well, it's not transactional

Starting point is 00:38:52 It's not exact. It's not exactly. I mean you can't go to a grocery store and pay with Bitcoin It's it's really complicated the fees are expensive it takes that it's complicated. It's not built for transaction Well some do like there's a certain not Bitcoin there's more kind of I'm not going to promote any here but there's more transactional cryptocurrencies but we're talking about Bitcoin which is kind of the gold standard because Bitcoin doesn't meet me to advertise Bitcoin come on but all I'm saying is like proof of concept of why it's important you just saw like But all I'm saying is like proof of concept of why it's important. You just saw it. Like Russian government literally telling their people,

Starting point is 00:39:27 hey, motherfuckers, 80% of your cash converted to rubles right now. Oh, 400 currency, right? If you have Bitcoin, I mean, that's the perfect example of they can touch you. And that's kind of the proof of why you want to hold it in a wallet and not in a proxy, you know, through a brokerage. Because I've been having this debate with people, and I was like, when is the government ever going to force, where are you going Canada?

Starting point is 00:39:49 Here, you're going Russia. So, okay, so that part is true. So, crypto currency just got a big boost, and that's why I think it's running out, because people are saying, okay, this makes sense. As far as how to play defense in the market, again, I don't have any understanding in bait trading or swing trading. It's not my expertise. I don't understand nothing in it. I'm a long-term investor. Most of the companies I invested in, my portfolio is very narrow. Palantir, Tesla, Google, S&P 500. That's the only stock I have in my portfolio. As a long-term investor, all I suggest you do is just fucking chill the fuck down. Just go watch some porn, take your walk outside, take your hike, drink some coffee, just relax. Because the only thing you need to do, Chris, is just pull out the, not what

Starting point is 00:40:38 you think, pull out the S&P 500 and expand it to a 10 year period or a five year or whatever. You will see that no matter how much shit is been going on in the world and believe me, the past and years there's been a lot of shit going on in the world. People forget we had the 2008 crash in the US. We had so much gnarly stuff going on in the world. The S&P 500, which is the US stock market use economy, always going up long term. If you're a long-term investor, you literally don't give a shit about short-term volatility. So, I'm playing around with you portfolio too much.

Starting point is 00:41:15 First of all, you're creating tax disadvantages, at least in the US. Now, you're in the US, you should notice you're creating short-term capital gains. If you trade in and out of a stock under year, you just, you just almost double your tax liability and completely killed your alpha. So that's, there's that. Now, beyond the fact, beyond the tax issues, of course, unless you have it in the IRA or 401, never mind, but beyond the tax issues, it's been

Starting point is 00:41:40 statistically proven that there's a correlation between how much more you're active and how much more losses do you get? No, no, no, no, there's literally a start. I have to find it somewhere So there's a 500 went up for the past 10 years like crazy, right? You can pull up the chart 85% of people who wars in the ACA some people have a lost money only about 15% make money Most people lose money in the stock market long term, even though it always goes up. Because most people are impatient. Warren Buffett literally said this, said the stock market is a wealth transfer mechanism from the impatient to the patient. So the worst thing you can do is fiddle around with your portfolio and try to time the market. Again, if you're a swing trader, if you're a professional trader, I don't, that's a whole

Starting point is 00:42:24 differential ad. I don't understand nothing. As a long term, if you're a swing trader, if you're a professional day trader, I don't, that's a whole differential. I don't understand nothing. As a long term, if your friends are long term investors, just, you know, unless you pick garbage stock, which is it, it's the whole different discussion, that you might have to fix your portfolio. But if you have solid conviction and you think you went for winners, what does the war in Ukraine change?

Starting point is 00:42:44 Really, bro. Okay, energy is going war in Ukraine change? Really bro. Okay, energy's gonna be more expensive for a while. Probably inflation is gonna make it worse, sure. But it's across the field. Everybody's like playing soccer when it's raining or snowing. Everybody's in the same fucking pitch. It doesn't really matter.

Starting point is 00:42:59 Have you got any insight around people that are holding cash or real estate? Well, I'm not a real estate guy, but the one asset that's been overperforming the market, and I'll tell you why it's kind of an easy answer, is real estate. Real estate, again, real estate has been basically the best safe harbor. Like, when you have inflation, what's the one thing you want to do? You want to hold assets, not cash, right? So cash real estate, they're kind of,

Starting point is 00:43:30 they're the opposite sides of the same story, right? In low inflation, you want more cash, in high inflation, you want more assets, because if you have a home, it's worth whatever it is, it's worth, so you don't need to be worried about inflation. The problem is with real estate, that what happened over the past two years, is again, you're on the ground, so you've seen this happen.

Starting point is 00:43:48 The prices have really stayed because everybody understands this simple concept, right? The prices have lost all, like, or Justin, I was talking to you, just sold us, like, it's just, it got in so bad, it literally killed Open Door and Zillow, bro. Because people like, it's the apps where you sell your house online with the open door was chamath's back in like Zillow Like people like we don't need no help selling our house. Well, there's no need. Well look

Starting point is 00:44:15 It's like we can double our money right now. So everybody's rushing towards really so the it becomes very dangerous Like you just need to be careful again. You're probably a more of a real estate guy than me, but conceptually, I would just be, you know, not trying to park my money unless I can get a good deal. I'm getting a good deal in New York City right now and the US is very tough. It's the same in the UK.

Starting point is 00:44:38 UK markets on fire at the moment. There was one of my buddies just sent me a stat around right move, which is our equivalent of you might even have it, it might work out here in America. And it had its busiest day ever, ever the most number of new properties and the highest volume of traffic not long ago. Yeah. And it's not like the inflation is going away, Chris.

Starting point is 00:45:01 I mean, what's seven and a half right now, if energy prices keep going up, inflation is not going to come down. It's simple because what do you need to make everything? Energy. Energy is more expensive. There you go. Simple. Not to mention the fact that you've pumped in 5.5 trillion dollars into the system. That somehow, it's like eating five trays of pizza, bro.

Starting point is 00:45:24 You have to shit it out before you can go for a run. I mean, it's that simple, bro. What do you think's going to happen in the medium to long-term, then? Well, that's a great question. Assuming that, look, the US has, I can only talk about the US. The US has an inflation problem that is kind of the perfect storm.

Starting point is 00:45:47 Whenever you have a really bad situation, it's a combination of, you know, I always give the example of the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl. In Chernobyl, like, it was such an improbable event. So much had to go wrong in the same sequence for the shit to happen, but when it does, it's catastrophic. Okay, so the US inflation problem is literally a combination of things that are what are the odds? Well, there you go. Those are the odds. It's just happened. Like more, more free, more free slow, bro.

Starting point is 00:46:16 So the US problem is number one, obviously, they printed a lot of money. Every kid knows that. That's the easy point. So there's supply change shortages. Okay, where people were more at home and now you have you have issues with basically the tracking industry, the logistic, like it's not easy right now getting people out of out of their homes. It started with COVID but now people are basically saying, well, I can just fucking do affiliate marketing from

Starting point is 00:46:43 home and make more money, right? Why would I go drive a truck, not be around my family for three weeks, right? So you have to pay more to attract drivers or people who work in the logistical industry. So you pay more, obviously, it's impatient. So, and you have zero rate interest, which means everybody's spending. If you have zero rate interest,

Starting point is 00:47:02 why would you hold your money in the bank? There's no point in saving money, zero percent interest. So so everybody's spending so a lot of money in the system crazy spending Logistical hardships and on top of it the US now has to face what they've neglected for the past 30 years There's a major problem on the west coast Where all the goods from China or not all a lot of A lot of the goods from China are coming in from two ports, which is Long Beach and LA. And those two ports, when it wasn't as crazy as now, it kind of held its own somewhat. It was up there, it was a little bit tough, but they held it around. But now, basically, we have situation where they don't have the employees, where they literally broke. They've literally not

Starting point is 00:47:49 been sending crates and containers back to China because they don't have the manpower or the time to load it back on the ships going back, which is created an insane cost to containers which is exaggerating the problem. So the US has to fix the fucking infrastructure as far as the port system goes, as far as the trucking industry. There's, look, I think about this way. On top of this,

Starting point is 00:48:17 this all the situation I just scrapped to you, if you could just raise interest rates, you would have probably alleviated a lot of the problem. If the government would say, hey, listen, like they did this in the 80s. There was a Fed chair. His name was Paul Volker. And he did this in the 80s. He said, look, 15% interest right now.

Starting point is 00:48:35 That's a major, it's like pulling the handbrake when you're going in the freeway, bro. So you might crash, well, you're probably going to crash, but you're going to stop for sure. The problem is, when Paul Walker did this, we didn't have a US debt, the size of our GDP. We literally have a hundred percent size of US national debt compared to GDP. So we are servicing a lot of debt. So every percentage point we raise on the interest

Starting point is 00:49:03 to slow down the market is going to cost $270 billion. Give or take a few dollars. So why is the Fed now saying, okay, just point 25% because they literally can't afford to do more. And when they say can't afford, they can always print more money, but what happens if you print more money to service the debt? You're basically just creating more cash into the system, basically making inflation worse.

Starting point is 00:49:27 So they have to figure out, and there's long theories on how you can get the standards. You can create, you can roll over a lot of, it's getting boring, so I'll do it quick. The US, it's like, when you know when you take a mortgage and you go to the bank, right? And they tell, okay, what kind of mix you want? And and you say well, I don't want to put everything on just fixed It's gonna be expensive, right? Give me like half and half, right? I'll take half fix and half variable because they're variable is fucking cheap So this is what the US government has been doing and that that was okay But now half or I think more than half of their US national that is basically dependent on interest rates.

Starting point is 00:50:06 So there's super sensitive interest. So they can pretty much say, Hey, we're just going over to, we're rolling over a big chunk of a national that to 30 years, which is fixed. And then we're going to pay a little penalty like a three four hundred million billions, right? Three four hundred because that's a difference. I think it's like one and a half percent difference or two percent. because that's the difference. I think it's like one and a half percent difference or two percent. So we're going to take the penalty, we'll pay the 400 billion, whatever it is, but we're going to stop any concerns of interest rates. Then we don't give a fuck. And we can raise interest rates and fix this. This will be one solution. It has its problems. That solution would be to outgrow GDP out of the debt, which basically means reducing taxes, deregulating everything, letting the economy go boom.

Starting point is 00:50:44 But there's political issues with doing that. I mean, be regulating everything, let the economy go boom. But there's political issues with doing that. I mean, the Democratic government, lowering taxes doesn't really work. So there's stock in this limbo. So the Fed and the government need to figure out a way to work together. Until the government provides a viability for the Fed to raise interest rates, the Fed is going to basically be stock saying, well, we've decided not to raise interest rates because they can't. They literally are jammed until the government does something about the debt. So that's kind of my little quick primer about what's going on with inflation. It seems fucked. Yes. You know what? Alternative explanation? We're fucked.

Starting point is 00:51:20 This seems fucked. Dude. They'll figure it out. Dude, look, we pay them to figure it out. We pay them to sleep at night and not worry about these things. Let them worry about the aliens and the national debt and all this stuff. We don't want to know, bro. What are you worried about then? If you're not worried about the inflation and stuff like that?

Starting point is 00:51:41 I'm worried about being a good dad, man. That's the only thing I'm concerned about. Do you struggle with that? Yes. What do you struggle with? I have high standards of myself. I'll give you an example. So my dad, he was a cool dude, but he was a little bit of an absentee.

Starting point is 00:51:59 Not in that bad sense. He was just working a lot. You know what I mean? He was a good dude. He always like, no issues. I love them. And I love him. He's still alive. I mean we're having a good relationship. He can always give him a call. But I mean we didn't do jack shit to get ever because he was always working. That's why initially I quit my job. Basically I said I'm not going to be that guy.

Starting point is 00:52:18 So my midlife crisis when I hit 40 was basically quitting my job and basically being like more of a dad Now it's gotten to a point where I'm so fucking critical of myself so My wife was away for two days and I was along with the three kids on my own And I had to organize them in the morning to go to school and the first day it was a complete It was like putting in invading in Cranepro it was screaming at them. They're fucking crying It's like getting to school them. They're fucking crying. It's like getting to school late.

Starting point is 00:52:47 They're all fucking, like, the whole day I'm sitting in the corner, fucking shaking. How the fuck did I just fucking ruin this fucking morning? Like, and like, they forgot about it in 20 minutes, but my whole day is fucking going to shit, bro. I was like, how, how motherfucker? You're like, and then I made the decision. I said, okay, so we have two more days.

Starting point is 00:53:06 I'm going to make it like as magical as possible. I'm going to be like, not the perfect ad, but I'm not going to fucking let it happen again. And then the next days, bro, I keep you like, like people, oh, Paladir is down 12 percent. Like, motherfucker, I just had the best two days with my kids, bro. It was all fucking clockwork. Nobody, like everybody's happy, took them out for ice cream. Mornings were like, it was all fucking clockwork. Nobody, like, everybody's happy, took them out for ice cream. Mornings were like, everything was fucking lick it, split. I was like, you're like, oh, Tom,

Starting point is 00:53:29 are you not concerned about? No, motherfucker, that's the thing that I'm obsessing about. That's where I'm at right now in my life. I couldn't give less focus. Dude, I have a bunch of friends who are unbelievable high achievers, athletes, coaches, businessmen, and the thing that they struggle with is their ability to be a dad. It's tough. I'm not a dad, at least not one that I know. And I can't wait to be one, but the test. It's the most exhilarating feeling ever, but when you fail at that occasionally, it's

Starting point is 00:54:07 so crushing, though. Hi, Stake. And sometimes they ask you the craziest shit, like my six year old asked me, it's like, how do a boy and a girl create a baby? Or my older one is like, why do we, how do we know that God isn't black? Like, they ask you the crazy shit. I don't know. I don't know. Like, what? It's like they'll come out with some crazy ass and my four year old son. He has a photographic memory, bro. Don't forget, Jack, shit. So he would come out, hey, two weeks ago, you promised me this and

Starting point is 00:54:44 this and that. I've been waiting for for two weeks where the fuck is this and it's for bro and he doesn't forget if you tell him so it's it's it's it's it's it's it's a tough gig bro but when you hit it right it's like hitting that homework it's like it's better than sex bro when you hit it right when you have like a perfect day this is the best feeling ever. What do you need to work on then? If you were to look at your stats, patience, patience, it's the answer that every guy that I know gives.

Starting point is 00:55:17 Yeah, man, when you lose it, it's too late. You can't bring it back. You know what I mean? Because kids, they don't grasp it as like, oh, I fucked up. So dad is pissed off they're like oh dad is screaming at me angry dad you know what I mean you're the meme they don't give a fuck they don't even remember what they did wrong it's like I'm not comparing kids to dogs but if you have a dog like you don't he doesn't understand sometimes like why you are you angry? You know what I mean?

Starting point is 00:55:45 They just... They'll do some... Bro, I'll give you an example. Like the day that it all fell apart for me. He's like, when they see you struggling, they'll push harder to try to break you up. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha Bro, we're ready like everything is went to shit. We're at the door. My youngest is trying to get into the elevator himself, which is a fucking it's a life-threatening situation So I'm trying to get him my oldest isn't the house refusing to come out and my middle one is basically standing at the door And I'm asking is this your jacket? I'm not sure my wife usually knows

Starting point is 00:56:19 She says no and then my oldest one is screaming. Yes, it's her jacket. It's like is this yours said no There's no she's lying to you and like the kids trying's her jacket. It's like, is this yours? It's like, no, she's lying to you. And the kid is trying to get in the elevator. It's like, what is going on? It's like, they're testing me, bro. So I eventually, I was about, I took the jacket, I'm going to put this in the trash until you tell me, who's jacket?

Starting point is 00:56:39 It's like, oh, no, I just fucked up. When I said this, I was like, at this moment, you know, at this moment, he knew it fucked up. I was like, oh, fucking when I said this I was like at this moment, you know at this moment He knew he fucked up. I was like oh fucking got me And the crying and everything but the next two days bro, I killed it. I fucking killed it out of the fucking point Everything was pal bro. I even like the second day I decided I'll order pizza for them which they love But I I fuck to them. I told them that everything we're having for dinner is just fucking vegetables. So they're fucking filled up with a shit lot of vegetables and then I fucking,

Starting point is 00:57:10 I ordered the pizza after that. Drop the pizza on them after that, yeah. I dropped the pizza on them. Good. Yeah. I was like, that's that's that triple label. It's like a homerole when you do something. Well, you're impressed about the fact that you managed to outwit three tiny idiots.

Starting point is 00:57:25 They combined age is less than half of yours and you managed to outwit them and you're somehow feeling satisfied about that. You know how savvy kids are with reading you? Like for example, if you read them a book, they can feel if you're impatient, if you just want to get it out of there and leave. Like the bedtime story, they can feel everything. The emotional quantity is far better than grownups give them credit for. They understand everything.

Starting point is 00:57:57 They're very smart. Okay, it's not just men. You need a spreadsheet, you need a spreadsheet so that you can track them. Oh man. It's going to be the most complicated spreadsheet in humanity. Trust me bro. You have it like it's going to look like the the John Nash you know the scribblings on the wall and the fucking the beautiful mind bro. It's going to be something of that level.

Starting point is 00:58:18 Cut the stroffing. That's right, it needs to be man. Yeah, I'm looking forward to you know whenever it whenever it finally happens. I really am excited about the prospect of becoming a dad. One thing that I think about a lot is the intensity of emotions that you're going to have. You know, it's the first time you're going to touch something which is because of you,

Starting point is 00:58:38 you know, a living thing, which is because of you. And it doesn't surprise me that you see, you know, there's's on the internet, and they're funny or whatever of parents going, like full helicopter parents, no-plug parents shit. But I kind of understand the compulsion of where that comes from, that you have this tiny creature that you've brought into the world and you're terrified of it being hurt or injured or upset or whatever.

Starting point is 00:59:04 And your solution is to just knock everything in terms of challenges or discomfort out of their way. And yeah, it's gonna be the most intense emotions that I've ever felt in my entire life. And I don't know how I'm gonna deal with that. Now you'll be fine. And the more you have, the more you will find out that you had a lot of secret unemployment before in your life.

Starting point is 00:59:25 So you'll have one. It's like, oh, I had so much time before in my life. And then you have the second is like, oh, shit, well, then only one had so much. And then the more you add, the more you realize you had more freedoms. When you have three, bro, I don't know what it feels like to have more. But when you have three, I was like, oh, this is, this is like video game leveling up. It never gets easier. You know, they just the problems get bigger. They get more crazy. It's just... It's a gritar here on fucking, you know, ultimate mode. It's like fucking... It's crazy. What are you doing next then? What are you working on either personally or on the channel? Or is it is dad mode and improving yourself as a dad? Is that one of the priorities? That's the only priority.

Starting point is 01:00:05 But what I'm doing as far as content is actually I'm doing a new show with Justin. We're doing a show called Money Talks. It's a daily show, half an hour every day, 5 p.m. Where we go at each other's throat. It's very different from the podcast you were on. It's basically, I don't know if you watch sports at all, but it's kind of undisputed or first take,

Starting point is 01:00:29 but for stock market and financials. So we'll pick a few topics and we'll just basically, I'll destroy them. Simple. I'll go out and destroy it and I fucking kill them, bro. And yeah, that's been a lot of fun. And I just, you know, I don't have... Like people ask me, Tom, what if this whole YouTube thing is gone tomorrow?

Starting point is 01:00:52 I honestly don't care because I leave so much below my means, and I don't need really nothing. I haven't been splurging or spending it all, bro. Not because I'm cheap, because I don't need nothing to be honest. I've been making a shit out of money from YouTube, I live in the same apartment, drive the same car, I haven't bought any expensive jewelry, I literally done nothing with my money. Talk to you, Andy. So I found this fascinating,

Starting point is 01:01:14 every time that I speak to finance guys, they seem to fall into one of two brackets. One of them is the earn high, spend high, and the other one is sort of earn appropriate spend low. And that's the Morgan, that's the Morgan House or thing that money is the ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want for as long as you want and no one can tell you otherwise. But the only way that you can win at the game of finance is to stop moving the goalposts. Every time that you decide that you're going to make an amount of money and then once you've

Starting point is 01:01:43 made that amount of money, you decide to either spend it or up your liabilities to the stage where you've now reset. That's, you can't put the ball into the goal if the goal continues to move away from you every time you get closer to it. It's the recipe to be an unhappy man. What did you just describe? It's literally the recipe. It's, there's a name for this. Spencer coin, I told me this, it didn't invent it, but I forgot the name. Not hedonic adaptation. Yes, thank you, Vol.

Starting point is 01:02:14 I feel like I just sneezed. Thank you. So satisfying when that happened. Dude, I was walking down the street the other day with my buddy in Austin, and I was trying to remember this guy's name. And then he caught on to who it was that we were trying to remember, and we were walking to a smoothie bar, and both of us were walking down the street, like hitting our heads, like shaking...

Starting point is 01:02:31 I don't remember the fuck it was this. Yeah, someone driving past must have thought, what the actual fuck are those two people doing? Having a psychotic episode, as I'm walking down the street, desperately trying to remember this dude's name, and then one of us got it it and it was like someone had just won the lottery. We were like, fucking, yes! Yes! Yes! It's cathartic when you have that moment.

Starting point is 01:02:51 So good. Thank you for that. Yeah, thank you. You just gave me that. Good. Look, the thing is, have you ever bought something that you never thought you would be able to afford? A house. Okay.

Starting point is 01:03:04 Well, a house is a utilitarian thing, to afford a house okay well a house is a utilitarian thing but even a house actually fits into this okay let's say that you buy a fucking three-million dollar mention okay for the first two weeks you're gonna be like oh shit the pool and the fucking gym and the fuck pro week three you don't even give a fuck anymore. It's just a house, bro. It just has zero added value to your happiness. You had it for two weeks. And it's the same thing, bro.

Starting point is 01:03:34 You can go all the way up to helicopters, fucking yacht. It will always be the first two weeks, you're gonna be fucking gizzing over it and then you don't give a fuck anymore. It's just a thing. Okay, so there's no point in chasing fucking happiness through things. It sucks being broke and I guarantee you that your relationship will suffer if you're fucking broken you can't fucking provide for your family. But as long as you're not broke and you can provide for your family everything else is fucking not necessary.

Starting point is 01:04:01 everything else is fucking not necessary. Pro, I can, like people ask me, Tom, why don't you fucking sell the course? I mean, Kevin sells the course, a thousand bucks a pop and he makes like what, two, three million a month, but I don't even know how much you make. Like I could do that probably, and probably I can do a good course which people will like and not hate me for,

Starting point is 01:04:16 but like why? I'd be basically chasing something I don't need and adding more responsibility on me. Like, I find it really enjoyable just to come online chasing something I don't need and adding more responsibility on me like I Find it really enjoyable just to come online and fucking rant about shit and have zero Contributed responsibility bro. Do you not think that the information that you've got and the insights that you could give people would be able to help them make more money make better financial decisions in their life Good question and I'll tell you yes, yes, but still it's very dangerous. You remember the backlash that Mite Kevin got when he sold in. So Mite Kevin, the guy who has like what,

Starting point is 01:04:53 1.8 million subscribers and finance. And he said, oh, he sells a course, we're expensive course. And he said, yeah, I'm not, there was a big dip in text talks we're dropping. And he's like, yeah, I'm not selling by the tip. You weak paper hands blah blah blah blah. Comes out the next day, I sold everything.

Starting point is 01:05:17 So people were like, what the fuck, Evan? I mean, so they come out and say, what the fuck is your course? Is what's the value of the course? If you basically do things on the women or on the hunch and it's completely and it's like no, no, there's the methodology behind it. It's like yeah, and when it's basically I had him on my show and I told it to his face. I wouldn't have said the story. If I didn't I had it on my show and I interviewed him and said, listen Kevin. I mean, I mean, I don't think I think it devalues significantly of course. So I would be saying this behind this back in those I said this. When I don't sell a course, I can do whatever the fuck I want, bro, I have zero responsibility and accountability to people. I don't want to have that on my back saying, all Tom, you taught me this skill and for the past six months, and I'm going to be have to, I'm going to be

Starting point is 01:06:01 explaining, well, look, the market is like being employed again. I have to explain myself why you're not doing that well. I just make funny videos about finance and geopolitics. And some people love them, some people hate them. And I get paid just enough with a comfortable lifestyle, bro. I don't drive a Ferrari, I don't drive a fucking Tesla, a very simple European car, a very simple apartment. That's all I fucking need, bro. I don't need more. So I think that it, I understand the aversion to pressure,

Starting point is 01:06:30 right? I understand the fact that you're going to become accountable to the people that buy the course for the outcomes they get from the course. You're going to feel this sense of obligation to stick to the principles that you've come up with as a part of the course. I understand all of that. I do think the particular sort of audience that you've cultivated, I think that they would be very understanding. I think that you're quite open about the fact that you've got these failings and stuff. And yeah, very, very public fuckups. I have the worst shooting percentage in like I'm like Russell Westbrook from the three bro. I can't make it through. The shittest financial advisor in history. Yeah, but here's the thing, like I think that,

Starting point is 01:07:08 I think that there's an argument to be made that if you have an audience that will listen to you, that you know that you can add value to, I don't think that you should look at it as a purely sort of ruthless, capitalistic, taking advantage of my audience and stuff. And maybe, maybe the price that you have to pay for adding the maximum amount of value that you can to your audience is the accountability of the audience. Maybe that's a duty that you have to them.

Starting point is 01:07:35 Maybe the fact that you're gonna get people saying, well, Tom, I tried your course for this time and this thing didn't come off and blah, blah. Maybe if you have a, if 60% of the people that do the course come out being better off, maybe the price that you have to pay is the fact that you're gonna have to answer some uncomfortable messages You know what if I ever do it if I ever do it. I'm gonna offer lifetime refunds. That's for sure Like but then again, it doesn't really cover it full like

Starting point is 01:08:00 Oh, if if I refund somebody and they lost a shit ton of money It's not to fucking help their feel. You know what I mean? Okay, whatever. Like you are right. It's different. Creating a course about whatever, how to invest or how to operate your finance.

Starting point is 01:08:16 That's like what's the worst thing you can happen if you teach me how to fucking game, right? I get a few notes. Precisely. Like it's different to making a morning routine or a productivity or something like that Yeah, this is a fundamental currency that people run their lives with so I understand that I think about it this way Chris how many people will even though you tell them you tell them hey Like I said this in my videos all the time I said the only money that should be in the stock market is money

Starting point is 01:08:39 You can afford to lose should me rent money kids college money none of that shit only play money and lose. Should we rent money, kids college money, none of that shit. Only play money. And still people will fucking go yolo into fucking AMC and GME bro. And they're gonna be like, hey Tom, I did it. I said, not the fucker bro. So I had the guy, I won't forget this bro. He's the as British guy who y'all out into GME. Dude has such a cool guy. Made $1.4 million. You went on leverage bro. He had no money to even invest in GME. Road the whole thing up.

Starting point is 01:09:18 And I fucking told him sales, sales, we had a private conversation. And I said, look, sales just fucking, his dad is working, fucking remote, we had a private conversation. And I said, look, sell this just fucking, his dad is working, fucking remote, like in a different country. He's like, sell man. Didn't sell bro. He only took out enough money to buy a Mercedes, like a small class A, some shit like this.

Starting point is 01:09:40 And like, yeah, he stayed in and you know, you know, what happened? People won't listen to you and then they'll blame you for not listening to you. Or they'll listen to you and they'll blame you for listening to you. It's like being a goalkeeper, bro, when you're still a course. It's really tough. Now, if you don't give a fuck, and you say, well, I'm going to take my money, and haters going to be hating fine I just I have the the for a good if to say hey haters be hating if I don't sell nothing and people are all time you have paid yeah fuck off motherfucker with your fucking

Starting point is 01:10:14 yeah I have paid you bro all my content is free suck my dick bro fucking paid can bro NFTs yeah that's what you need to do. I thought about it so can you Shit out of yourself. It's such a fucking crazy Bro, NFTs is what the internet was in the late 90s Why the late 90s people thought that internet was just for porn People think that the blockchains just for NFTs at the moment. Yeah. And they think that NFTs is just this little fucking monkeys and whatever the fuck they don't understand the potential of the technology.

Starting point is 01:10:52 NFTs when they think it's just this little art projects. You haven't made it until coffee is ill, there's done a video on you. Once coffee is done a video on you, that's one I know that Tom has fully fucking reached, apogee. Interactive. How are you going to get to his killing it, bro? He's got a yeah, I was fucking. He's one of my favorite fucking him. You Philly on Spencer.

Starting point is 01:11:18 I could watch barely sociable. I could watch this shit all day, all day. You know who I watch and enjoy his videos videos even though you there's a guy his name is Bald and bankrupt. This is a guy who and bankrupt. Bald and bankrupt. So he's kind of I mean he's my age. So he's old.

Starting point is 01:11:43 So he just he grabs a GoPro and he goes to this fucking crazy places. Like lately, he's been geeking over Eastern Europe, just looking for like, he'll go to some post-Soviet village where he can find like a mosaic in the city square that's from the USSR. He'll like get into people's houses and and drink illegal booze with them in Russia. Like crazy. Like you have to... So is it vlogs?

Starting point is 01:12:10 It's kind of like vlogs? Yes, but it's like, bro, I can't explain to you why it works. It's like, when I say vlogs, you're like, I say, I will. Like, I will vlogs. No, but this is actually, it's very good. I can't explain it.

Starting point is 01:12:28 It's it's it's it's brilliant. Who else do you watch? I watch his stuff a lot. I'm going to be honest with you. Sometimes I watch drama alert. Oh, yeah, fuck. Didn't you tell me? Didn't you tell me that they were getting involved

Starting point is 01:12:45 in this rushy shit. Yeah they made a video called Russia canceled. I love Kim Star. He has such a nice way of serving you a burger when you just want a burger you know what I mean? I love that. Here's the burger. I watch a channel called Mustard. Nobody has heard of it. Mustard is an engineering channel. So he'll break down, like create, like it's for super geeks, like warships from World War II and how do we...

Starting point is 01:13:19 I'm a fan of, I'm a fan of stuff like that. So it's called Mustard, M-U-S-T-A-R-D. He breaks down all trains. And what's brilliant about this channel, the narration is amazing. The research is amazing. He makes the most beautiful 3D models of the old stuff he's talking about that don't exist anymore.

Starting point is 01:13:40 He almost kind of brings them back to life. Like he did a whole video about the Buran. The Buran was supposed to be a Soviet version of the of the space shuttle. It was never it was never it was almost and so he brought it back to life or he brings shit back to life that don't exist anymore. And it's just it's just so beautiful though. It's almost as pleasing visually as it is to hear about the stuff. Like he did a whole video about the shinkansen and how like the Japanese bullet train and how it started out, how it was complete failure and like crazy shit, really good channel. You'd love this channel, I'm telling you.

Starting point is 01:14:22 It's wild. Some of the ones that go and do this unbelievable deep dive are just insane. Like, DeGogo that does, should I remember that, forget the channel's name. Anyway, like this Australian dude who does these unbelievable Jake Tran, bro. Jake Tran does. Phenomenal.

Starting point is 01:14:43 Documentary level videos three days a week Just I don't know how well. He's got I think he's got a big editing team that's below him now But still like the research his the production is mostly his the recordings all his and he was still putting that out when he first started There's a this channel called Melody sheep have you heard of that? No. Oh, man. It is... So many talented people. It's a Melody Sheep's wild. They do one video about every two years. And they, yeah, it's fucking crazy. So they did one called Life Beyond Earth, which is a three-part documentary series.

Starting point is 01:15:21 The entire thing is 3D rendered in a computer-generated imagery, and it takes you through the different ways that life could evolve on other planets. Let's say that this planet has really dense air. Let's say that this planet is completely gaseous. Let's see what happens if we take away carbon-based life forms and we create silicon-based life forms, where the metabolisms are so low that they could live for millions and millions of years, and their thought cycles would be, you know, the amount of time it takes a human, a star to live and die would be one thought from them, because that's how slowly that they would exist. Melody Sheep, three-part series called Life

Starting point is 01:15:58 Beyond Earth. Wow. Outrageous. It's so good. The whole thing's soundscaped beautifully engineered, gorgeous voiceovers, and the visuals, and the whole thing's in 4K. I remember seeing something. How do they make money with so scarce cars? I have no, I think they might have a Patreon or something, but these guys, they have to be professionals.

Starting point is 01:16:18 There's no way that you could produce something like this and not be working for Netflix on the side or some shit. But then maybe not. Maybe they are just some bros. Look at James Johnny bro. James Johnny makes Netflix level documentaries. I'm not familiar with him. James Johnny. Oh, he's a very cool guy. He makes this unbelievable documentaries about money, marketing, similar to J-Tron. Like kind of like J-Tron. Yeah, Darkish. Kind of a... Nice.

Starting point is 01:16:48 Yeah, very good... Very good creator. Yeah, and... Oh, OKI as well. OKI's Weird Stories is fantastic. It's kind of like J-Tron, but for bizarre, dark nets, stories. Yeah, you... Oh, I think I've stumbled upon this.

Starting point is 01:17:03 This is actually a very... Because, oh... OKI, at the beginning, this Japanese girl does it. Stories yeah you oh I think I've stumbled upon this. This is actually a very good. Oh, okay I at the beginning this Japanese girl does it yeah, it's a It's awesome man. There really is some like YouTube at the moment if you get the right algorithm moving My news feed on not not the Chris Williamson channel that all this stuff goes out on because that's just Research and me doing all sorts of mad stuff, but on my personal one, it's just endless. All of this stuff that's on my suggested feed I want to watch. Say what you want about YouTube, that algorithm suggests fire all the time. It's always

Starting point is 01:17:36 good shit that I want to watch. I agree. I agree to that. Compare it to what YouTube used to be when it was just your subscription feed the amount of trash you would like I can't believe I'm still subscribed to that I'm sure people say that about my channel. I'm sure yeah this is that guy still going not Russian guy surely not actually. What is dead? Chris I want before you let me go to sleep because I told you I'm not in my 100%. I want to ask your opinion about something. So you're kind of a student of the game, not that kind of game. But do you think there is a way psychologically speaking because you don't know the guy that Putin actually can not demolish everything around him and just go back home and said,

Starting point is 01:18:28 well, this was not a good idea. I fear that his ego would not allow him to do it anymore. I think based on what very little I know about the man, I would say, that seems incredibly unlikely. It's a huge embarrassment on the world stage. It would involve everybody mocking Russia as a global power for a very, very long time. It would mean that everybody else would feel like maybe he called up love, but he wasn't actually holding the cards in his hand that he said he was.

Starting point is 01:18:59 So he's going to start to be bullied. Or I mean, the sanctions that he gets long-term, let's say that he just decided to turn around and go back to Russia. Okay, so you've suffered the Russian people have got all of these problems, the rubles gone through the floor, you can't use Swift, you've spent all of this money, you've lost all of these soldiers, you've lost all of this military hardware, and for what? You know, so there's a gambler's fallacy thing here that's going on a little bit. There's a sunk cost fallacy that's going on. There's the fact that there's the ego.

Starting point is 01:19:30 There's the fact that the Russian people, at least for the most part of behind him, again, there's another problem that you have here that when the state media is pushing the narrative that you want to hear, the Russian people in no way are going to be prepared for you to then reneg on what you were doing because they've never heard another side of the story. There's no, I'm sure that the Russian media is showing absolutely zero potential that Russia can even lose this. Look at how well we're doing, look at the progress that we're making on all fronts and blah, blah, blah. So no one's prepared for it, it would be an embarrassment domestically and internationally. So no one's prepared for it. It would be an embarrassment domestically and internationally.

Starting point is 01:20:05 In terms of ego, I don't think it would take. I don't think that I think he get the only way that that would happen, that he would turn around and go home, is if he's losing so much men, or financially it becomes untenable to continue moving forward to the point where, but that's not even going to be a retreat. That's just going to fizzle out very, very slowly and then just die a death.

Starting point is 01:20:27 If you're right, it means very bad things for Ukraine because it means that you will have to turn up the heat. You mean in terms of military hardware, like bigger bombs? Bigger bombs, less strategic bombing more kind of is basically in discriminate yeah this is going to be horrific if this happens what do you think what's your prediction? okay honestly don't know but I feel like if they give him 60% of what he wants, they might get a deal done.

Starting point is 01:21:08 What chop? Chop your grain in half? No, well, he has to accept current government stays. And the West will have to accept no NATO ever for Ukraine. And the beats really chopped off, he gets to keep. This deal can be probably worked out, but I feel like if you're putting, you don't take this deal unless you think you're gonna lose.

Starting point is 01:21:37 And I don't know if he thinks that he's gonna lose because these dictators that tend to be detached. You know what I mean, Chris? These peace talks just bollocks then, because I'm hearing that there's peace talks proposed for this day and this day and this day. And apparently the last time they had peace talks the last week, Putin just used that as an opportunity

Starting point is 01:21:53 to rotate his troops. Yeah. Everybody's saying that it's garbage. It's just a garbage time. I don't know. But I think if they, if a deal can be made, it probably is within those boundaries of what I said, because everything else is going to be undueable for for for either party. Let's pray they can find a way to get a deal done.

Starting point is 01:22:19 Because if they can't look, can you imagine like people who like kids going to school just a week ago, and fucking, imagine bombs fucking falling in your neighborhood. Just even if nothing happens to you, what it does to you is say people. They post trauma just to put even without casualty. This is horrific, bro. I pray that it ends. I don't want more at all. And there's people that were milkman. Last week, you know, your local postman and milkman

Starting point is 01:22:56 are now holding AK-47s stood side by side with Alexander Yusig trying to stop an invading force. It's wild. It's absolutely wild. And I think, you know, the one, one of the few positives that I think the E-Candro from it is that it reminded everybody there was a presumption, I think, especially amongst young people, millennials, that because we haven't seen any conflict in our lifetime, that we kind of were in post-history, we'd got past the potential for war. Oh, look, we've managed to create peace through a combination of deterrence and like nice agreements and superpowers and superpacked that grew up, who bind countries together. And it's reminded everybody that you can have boots

Starting point is 01:23:40 on the ground and guns in hands. And yeah,'s given a wake up call to a lot of people that thought it was all sweetness. And the same way as COVID, dude, you know. I think things have been always fucked up. It's just now it's happening in Europe. And it's people like, oh, it's close to home. It's been happening like for the last 30, 40 years. Serious.

Starting point is 01:24:00 I've got to start Iraq Iran. It's somewhere else. So you're like, oh, yeah, whatever. Like, now it's somewhere else. So you're like, oh yeah, whatever. Like now it's happening next to the doorstep and now it's fucking scary. So I feel like we should pray that this shit doesn't get out of him because we're one spit away

Starting point is 01:24:20 from some horrific shit, bro. This is like 2022. can you believe it? Bro, he was something that I was talking about yesterday that there's kind of people are happy to talk about mental health and say, you know, it's okay to not be okay, reach out and talk to a friend if you're depressed, stuff like that. But it's supposed to be, there's still an element

Starting point is 01:24:41 that that's supposed to be the serious stuff. You know, my parents have just died or I've become homeless or I've lost my job or I've done whatever. The last, think about the last three years, ish of experience for most people on the planet. It's been this just constant ambient anxiety, concern about a virus and certainty about the future working from a home lack of social contact, no time a virus, and certainty about the future, working from a home, lack of social contact, no time with parents, no time with friends,

Starting point is 01:25:10 no time outdoors, getting more and healthy, eating shit food, spending time in the house, being bombarded by news media, lack of information that we can trust, lack of news organizations that we can trust, lack of politicians that are telling the truth, complete loss of confidence in all of that stuff. And then the icing on the top of the cake is, yep.

Starting point is 01:25:28 The war. Correct. On top of it. Yep. Insane though. I've never thought about it this way, but now that you say it, I'm literally like, oh shit. But the thing to think, dude, you know, and for anybody that's got through the last

Starting point is 01:25:43 couple of years, with their sanity even remotely intact. Can be pretty proud of themselves. Yeah, absolutely, man. And that's the thing because it's not, there's no glory attached to it. There's no prestige. You don't get a blue tick on Twitter for doing this. You don't get any money in your bank account for having done this. But if you've been somebody that's been there, one of your friends has rang

Starting point is 01:26:07 you and said, man, I feel pretty shitty today. I don't really know what's going to happen with my job or my girlfriend or my house or my investments or whatever. If you've been the person that's been there, or even if you've just been the person that's been the one ringing and you've managed to make it through on the other side, I think that's something that you should clap yourself on the back for. I feel a blue ticker or all the verification tickers, if you're married, they're meaningless. It's a... I don't care, if I was single, I would definitely want one, bro.

Starting point is 01:26:39 Okay, you look Tom, let's bring this home man. I really appreciate you. I appreciate the work that you do. Tell everyone where they should go if they want to keep up to date with the stuff that you put out. Well, you can find me on Twitter at I am Tom Nash. My channel is Tom Nash, youtube.com slash Tom Nash TV. You can also see me daily on a channel called Sense Invest, SE and TS. Invest, we have a daily show called

Starting point is 01:27:06 Money Talks with me in Justin, which you've met. I think that show is going to be brilliant. We're on episode 15, and it's going to be epic. And other than that, don't look for And I'm very intentional about it.

Modern Wisdom - #443 - Tom Nash - The Financial Impact Of Russia's Invasion

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.