Modern Wisdom - #653 - George Mack - 16 Life-Changing Ideas You’ve Never Heard Of
Episode Date: July 13, 2023George Mack is a writer, marketer and entrepreneur. If our mind is an operating system, ideas are the apps we install to give us a greater understanding of the world. George is one of my favourite thi...nkers and today we get to go through 16 of the best ideas we've both discovered since the last time we spoke over 3 years ago. Expect to learn whether optimism is actually a scam, why it's so sexy to be cynical, why high agency people are the best ones to have in your life, what is the most interesting question of all time, the difference between treadmill friends and sofa friends, why most people die at 25 but aren't buried until they're 75, how to stop worrying about everyone else's opinions and much more... Sponsors: Get the Whoop 4.0 for free and get your first month for free at http://join.whoop.com/modernwisdom (discount automatically applied) Get 10% discount on Marek Health’s comprehensive blood panels at https://marekhealth.com/modernwisdom (use code: MODERNWISDOM) Get 5 Free Travel Packs, Free Liquid Vitamin D and more from AG1 at https://drinkag1.com/modernwisdom (discount automatically applied) Extra Stuff: Get my free Reading List of 100 books to read before you die → https://chriswillx.com/books/ To support me on Patreon (thank you): https://www.patreon.com/modernwisdom - Get in touch. Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Hello everybody, welcome back to the show.
My guest today is George Mack, he's a writer, business owner, and an entrepreneur.
If our mind is an operating system,
ideas are the apps that we install to give us a greater understanding of the world.
George is one of my favourite thinkers,
and today we get to go through 16 of the best ideas that we've both discovered
since the last time that we spoke over three years ago.
Expect to learn whether optimism is actually a scam,
why it's so sexy,
to be cynical, why high-agency people are the best ones to have in your life. What is the most
interesting question of all time? The difference between treadmill friends and sofa friends,
why most people die at 25 but aren't buried until the 75, how to stop worrying about everyone
else's opinions, and much more. The OGs, amongst amongst you will remember George as being one of
the first episodes that went pretty big on YouTube and on audio and he has been an important
part of my life for the last five years. He is currently away living in Dubai running
this amazing agency and he's been in Austin with me for a full month. I love this guy
a bit. I love his ideas. I love the way things. I love his positivity.
Yeah, there is so much to take away from this episode. If you enjoy it, please share it with a friend.
There is so much in here, I think, that can help people to reframe the way that they see the world
and really upgrade their quality of life. So yeah, get ready for this one.
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But now ladies and gentlemen, please welcome George Mack. Today we're going to go through some of the best ideas of all time. Well, purely subjective via me and you, so you know, the best ideas that we're aware of.
Right now that made change into one of them.
That's the beauty of it, it's an infinite game.
Okay, so the first one is optimism a scam.
What's the use of this?
Yes, it's a skeptic.
Shut down the railways, shut down the airlines, shut down electricity, shut down it all.
It's all a scam.
We need more nihilism, we need more pessimism. No, I, um, I read this essay called
is Optimism a scam. And the pure thesis behind it was what you had about 20 years ago was
the secret, the book that came out. And it was this idea that you could just manifest things
into reality. And the cynical, skeptical crowd completely destroyed that idea. And I always use like, so there's three great examples of the
secret. So you've got one which is Winston Churchill when he was 19 years old saying,
one day this great city will be under attack. I will be the one that saves it. So that's
like 50, 40, 40, 50 years before World War II. You have Arnold Schwarzenegger saying, I will become the greatest bodybuilder ever
and the greatest movie star or the biggest movie star
at the time.
There's one which is from John Rockefeller as well,
which is one day I will be the richest man in the world.
He said that to his bank teller
who rejected him for a bank apparently.
So that's the kind of ball case for ridiculous affirmations
that manifest reality, but the problem with that is
for every Rockefeller,
Schwarzenegger Churchill, there's 10,000 delusional arseholes that say these things.
I mean, up back to the skeptics are right there. And the problem that the optimism crowd has,
in my opinion, it's a marketing problem. They've sold it, they've oversold it, and the best
the best put down ever was Dave Chappelle, where he's saying, if the secret was true, why aren't all
the starving kids in Africa manifesting food? And you go, that's the ultimate win right.
So optimism as a result has kind of struggled a few else.
And the problem with optimism is they've oversold the product is my thesis.
So imagine if you saw Crayer Teen as human growth hormone.
That's what I see people have done with optimism.
So what we need to do is appeal to skeptics language to kind of win the optimism game, which is if you go to PubMed and search Perceibo
Effect, 100,000 results, everybody in the scientific community acknowledges the power of
the Perceibo Effect. There's one study where it started in World War II. I forgot the
name of the doctor where it was the US versus the Italians and there was loads of people, loads of soldiers
sorry struggling and rather than give them morphine because he'd run out, he'd start
to give them salt water and they could go through surgery a bit. So the placebo effect is
something magical, something powerful. And therefore I think you can use that a little
bit to argue the skeptics case for optimism. And ultimately where I go down, this is what
optimism is, it's to improve
1% every single day. So this, have you heard of the cocktail party effect? Have I talked
you about that? No. So the cocktail party effect is me and you sat here like we've been
in a few bars or restaurants at Terry's barbeque down the road, right? And the background
noise is a blur. It's me and you chatting, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But if somebody
says voodoo event, which is Chris's old events company, or mentions the Northeast
of England, or whatever it is, suddenly that background noise, what is that?
You immediately tune into it.
So right now your brain is blurring out infinite inputs, millions of inputs that are happening
right now, and you're focusing on what appeals to your reticute reactivating system.
And I think the case for optimism is you're not going to manifest things into reality,
but if you have a more optimistic frame, you're more likely to spot those opportunities.
And I say market optimism is a 1% improvement every single day, and then you'll probably
get more people to believe it. So I think that's the problem with optimism. It was oversold.
Yeah, the baby and bathwater got thrown out together.
Exactly. The fruit, yeah, I put that baby in Baffwater meme, which is they throw the baby out, which is like useful optimism with a load of delusional, wishy-thinking,
Instagram quotes, bullshit. And that's problem. Especially the first, kind of like eugenics,
optimism's like eugenics, that the first iteration of really, really aggressive optimism came
from Ronda Burns, the secret. This is the woman who said that the 2006 Boxing Day tsunami that killed tens of thousands
of people, I think in Thailand, was due to the Thai people giving out bad vibes that
like manifested and attracted this natural disaster.
It's like if you advertise creatine as going to fix everything, it's not.
It's a small 1% improvement every day, but the actual difference is you may then have
an opportunity that opens up that completely compounds.
So I think James Clear has that graph where if you improve 0.1% every single day, if that
compounds, that's a 36-year-ex improvement in a year, that's the argument I think for
optimism.
It's a 1% improvement every single day.
And ultimately, society is getting better.
And I think it's important to repeat that point.
Well, everybody's deluded, right, in one form or another.
Everybody has some type of delusion.
As far as I can see, and both of us come from the North of the UK,
this is like the fucking ground zero
for cynicism, pessimism, skepticism, not necessarily coming from an intellectual
place, but almost coming from a genetic place.
It feels like there's a predisposition, the weather's gray, the people are gray, the mood
is gray.
So everybody has a degree of delusion, right?
Why not have a delusion that benefits you?
Like if you're going to not be accurate necessarily, if you
know that you're going to be inaccurate about the future and you know that you can't
know everything, which is true, I don't think that earring on the side of things are going
to get worse, especially given that every quantifiable metric available says that things
are getting better, yes, is it difficult that we're dealing with the existential pain
of life direction and all that stuff? Yeah, 100%. I get that.
And it's a luxurious position to be and to have an existential crisis because all of the bottom layers of
Maslow's hierarchy of needs have been sorted.
So it's a challenge that very few people have had to deal with.
So there's not any wisdom that's been archetypally passed down over generations.
Because so few people got to the situation where they were safe from shelter and food and water and connection and blah blah meaning and all that stuff.
So yeah, I understand it's a difficult challenge, but like
everything is getting better, which means that
optimism
What looks like optimism is actually realism?
Hmm, and what looks like realism is actually like pessimism.
Yeah, I think anybody who follows me for a while and the the ones who haven't, and I have to describe this one,
to all this audio, is there's this matrix,
which is optimism and pessimism,
and then low agency and high agency.
And I feel that, yeah, if you have optimism
with a low sense of agency, that isn't valuable at all,
but paired with high agency,
I think that's one of the most beautiful things.
There's this one thing that I always come back to as well, which is this Steve Jobs email. I think
I told you about this one where he sent to himself 13 months before he died.
It came out quite recently and Steve Jobs wrote this to himself. I grow a
little of the food I eat and the little I do grow, I did not breed or perfect the
seeds. I do not make any of my own clothing. I speak a language. I did not
invent or refine. I did not discover the mathematics I use,
I am protected by freedoms and laws, I did not conceive or of all legislate, and do not enforce or adjudicate, I am moved by music, I did not create myself,
when I needed medical attention, I was helpless to help myself survive.
I did not invent the transistor, the microprocessor, object-oriented programming,
or most of the technology I work with. I love and admire my species, living and dead, and I am
totally dependent on them for my life and well-being. The one guy who could have, A, could be very
pessimistic in that scenario, but B, also rightly so, have a fucking ego. That I always come back to
that whenever I feel quite pessimistic, I go, fuck, life's actually very, very good.
How do you reframe it yourself?
So everybody has this role towards cynicism, pessimism.
It's cool to do it on the internet somehow become sexy to be cynical,
because it's seen as like a signal of high intellect.
How do you stop yourself tumbling down that rabbit hole?
It's a good question.
I think one of them, I have this thing of like hardware versus software, which is most
people think they have a software problem when they actually have a hardware problem.
So if I'm finding myself thinking more cynically, thinking more negatively, I'll just try and
fix the hardware.
So it's like some kind of breathing exercise, sauna, run, exercise, eat well.
My friend, Dickie says that when he's tired or in that kind of emotional state,
his goal of the day is just to make no decisions. So I just often, a good night's sleep or whatever
it is, try and fix it that way. That, for me, fix is about 95% of my software problems. And then
the remaining 5%, which may be legitimate issues, are much easier to solve in that. So that's the
first thing I'd say is fix hardware before you try and fix software. And then I think it's a lot about who you're around. It's a lot about studying studying history super important because you go
Fuck I could have been born in 1612. Yeah, or I could have been part of World War 2
Which was a blink of an eye away and when you actually look at it from a historical perspective
It's like well, where's better than now? I think there is a better time than now
Yeah, I came up with this yesterday,
I told you about the Alpha History Fantasy.
Oh, yeah, yeah.
So modern men who are angry at the world,
they feel has rejected them, mistakenly believe
they would have done better in medieval times.
There's somehow adamant that the chance of them being
gang is carned is greater than the chance of them being
cannon fodder peasant number 1,373,582,
whose favela was sacked and destroyed. That would have been me. Yeah, you think you would have been cannon fodder peasant number one million three hundred and seventy three thousand five hundred eighty two whose favela was sacked and destroyed.
That would have been me.
Yeah, you think you would have been cannon for the peasant?
One hundred percent.
Okay.
Well, I think, um, Huberman's got this quote where he says, you cannot change the mind to
the mind, you have to change it with the body.
It's not strictly true because meditation is precisely changing the mind to the mind, but
I think broadly it's true that most of the problems that people encounter are hardware problems rather than software problems.
I learned this during COVID for the first time in my entire life, I had a stable sleep and wake pattern.
I went to bed and got up at the same time, seven days a week for the first time since I was 18,
and I was 32. So I'm like, right, okay, just something to this. There's something to having a set
routine. And I'd listen to, I'd sent it to you. I remember sending to you
Matthew Walker on Rogan. I think like wow, look at how important sleep is meanwhile
It's staying up until four in the morning caching up nightclubs like two or three nights a week
So you need to really sort of see it and feel it. Yes on a hardware problem. Also
I had this idea called the cynicism safety blanket.
I don't know that one.
Fucking, I'm happy with this.
So, this is explaining why cynicism is incredibly trendy, especially in the modern world.
Synicism is a guarded response which sets yourself up against disappointment.
Its role within the system is to protect you against experiencing anything bad.
It is a preemptive strike against a perceived threat.
If I tell myself that all women are bad, then I'm less likely to seek relationship with
women, and as a consequence, I'm never going to feel the pain of rejection. If I tell
myself that everything is shit, or that things will never get better, then I'm excused
of ever having to try at anything. It's more comfortable to get fatalistic and call it
pragmatism. The cope is framing hope as pathetic and embarrassing and optimism as delusion.
It sower grapes at an existential level.
If everything sucks and everyone is horrible and the reality is disappointing and you know
that for a fact, then it s the people acting like things that can be better that are dumb,
delusional and the problem.
The upside of never trying is never having to feel the pain of failure. I also think that ties into the cocktail party effect, what we just spoke about, where if you have
that cynical outlook and you have that pessimistic outlook, I mean, you can still win the lottery,
of course, but you will, if there's so much sensory inputs that's trying to go into your brain,
you will just see it more, you will see more of it. You'll end up down darker YouTube rabbit holes,
you'll end up watching those things, you'll end up in those aspects. So it's this kind of
perpetual flywheel that then begins to compound.
Yeah, you're looking for evidence that confirms the worldview that you didn't want to have,
but that you somehow have inculcated from being on the internet too much.
Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, he has this idea in one of his books where it's called
the weed filter. And he used to think that if he smoked weed, people became way nicer
to him. So he started smoking more and more weed. And then he began to realize, actually, he was
just more relaxed because he was so tight and stiff that all of a sudden his interaction with the
world also has an effect on how they interact with him. When he was way more relaxed, people
were then way more relaxed around him. It wasn't actually the weed, and then he realized it wasn't
actually the weed itself. It was purely the filter that he was viewing things through.
Yeah, it's trying to push optimism to tough. It's a really hard road.
Yeah, I mean, I then like, going back to what we said today, so you've done the hard work
software. I think it's more just looking around and just looking at the reality of the situation.
One of my favorite stories is I forgot the writer who did it, but he tried to make a chicken sandwich from scratch.
Have you heard this story?
He tried to create a chicken sandwich purely from scratch.
So the first principle sandwich.
First principles took him six months and cost him 1500 pounds.
Oh, so you had to grow the wheat or whatever that was ground up to make the flour to do the
right, okay?
You just don't think about those things of how, really,
when you look at human beings, there's nothing actually
that's special about them, but the ability,
A, to create ideas, which you spoke about to begin with,
and then B, the ability to cooperate at scale.
Is that the thing about, if you tried to create a pencil,
you couldn't, no one knows how to create a pencil,
because like, fucking rubbers from here,
the leads from here, no one knows it,
and that is quite beautiful.
And you need optimistic people in order to be able to collaborate, to play those positive
some games.
It's so important.
And listen, is it going to fix cancer if you've got cancer, of course not.
But like one of my favorite examples is Brian Armstrong, who used to do right down every
single day, I will create a billion dollar company.
Do I think that created a billion dollar company?
No, of course not, it was like hard work, he's probably ridiculous IQ, he's probably got
a great network, he had the right idea, he went through Y-combin, he had all those things.
But could that have helped for a little bit?
Possibly.
So I'm not sure if the same one will take it all.
I would love to see the case for pessimism.
But the only reason that I can see that pessimism
would potentially be, the case that would be put forward
would be that it protects people emotionally
from the pain of failure.
That's really the only thing.
If you set your sights so low,
you can never be disappointed by reality.
I mean, one of the things I'd kind of fork
this conversation here is,
I do think there's some utility to pessimism
and like that kind of Georgia or Welley and double thing
like the ability to hold two ideas at the same time
is so important.
So if you can actually take a pessimistic frame
and go, oh, what's the scenario that can happen here?
It's that Tim Feriss first setting idea.
I think that's super valuable as well.
And the ability to constantly use optimism and pessimism
when you need it.
But I'd say on the whole, I think optimism's more useful.
I likewise, if you can take a high agency frame
when you need it.
And also, the ability to empathize with what the low agency
version of this will be, the ability to operate
in multiple mindsets, I think, super important.
It's that George Fitzgerald quote, which is like,
you can tell the mark of a first rate
intellect by the ability to hold two thoughts, two opposing thoughts at the same time. And
that's very rare these days. People even go to one end of the spectrum or the other, and
I'm often quite fucking obsessed with, what's that third door?
Yeah, that's like, orthogonally. Yeah, because this team's here, this team's here,
what's that here? You've mentioned it a couple of times today, one of mine in your favourite words, high
agency.
Yeah.
Why are you so obsessed with high agency people?
Why is it important?
Because it's applied optimism, I guess, without it, nothing changes.
And we was at dinner last night with Gerard and we was saying I asked
he for reference for the audience he recruits that high level execs and I asked him what do
all these guys have in common when you get to like that uber level of big big big companies
and he said like energy transference and high agency for me is a combination of energy
transference the ability to either just accept the story or change
the story, and then you have this kind of debate, again, you can have these two thoughts in your head at the same time of the great
material history or kind of things just happen society and change that way.
And again, I think there's truth to both, but ultimately it, the individual level, having a of agency's extremely valuable. And these figures, one of my favorite questions to ask is,
what films aren't we making because we're too busy making Transformers 12?
And if you actually look at all my work, it's often questions rather than answers.
It's my favorite, a racist lyric is, questions are the answers you might need.
And often in this platform, it's a guru platform, you can give these easy platitudes.
I actually prefer to ask a question and then leave that open loop with the audience and then go, hey, here's
my answer to the question. But then you may get, and hopefully we do, you get a little DMs
from people going, actually, this is the story that they should be making instead of Transform
was 12. Have you heard about this person? Have you heard about this person or have you heard
about this story? Or were you crowdsourcing the insights?
Exactly. And I think that's such a better way. It goes back to what we said at the beginning.
That's an infinite game where if you try and go,
I think X, Y, Dead, True, and I have this guru
inside of ABC versus having a question of an open loop,
those are questions that you can kind of answer
over a career and still never answer
it's an infinite game.
OK, so high agency is the ability to change,
to enact change.
If it was to be in a single sentence, I would say it's that.
Yeah, I think low agency is life happening to you, high agency is you happening to life. I'd say that's
the fundamental difference. And you'll know people who life happens to them and then you know people
who happen to life. And ultimately, it's a constant battle. You can have the most high agency,
but Steve Jobs, who dies of pancreatic cancer. Obviously, the stuff around the
character, some things like that, but,, but ultimately, environments still have a factor,
but it's the ability to have that double thing,
can know, okay, well, I can still have the most amount
of optimism, still the most about high agency
and have an impact, environments are still gonna
have a huge impact too.
Mm, so who are some of your favorite high agency
humans throughout history?
Going back to what I said earlier,
what films aren't Hollywood making right now
because they're making Transformers 12
of a Fast and Furious 15.
The most underrated one in terms of how few people know and the most high agency individual
is a guy called Rudolph Verber.
So Rudolph Verber was in Auschwitz as a teenager.
He was in a unique position where he was essentially in the operations of the train.
So he would help Jews come off the trains
particularly women and children and then they get exported to the gas chambers
One of the things like a meta principle I today today that I've kind of massively changed my mind on last 24 months is when you
When you study history you begin to understand things completely differently
So when I go into this Rudolph Verber story the thing that people don't appreciate is they view it in hindsight
Versus at the time the Nazis didn't announce to people
Hey, get on these trains, and this is what's going to happen to you. That wasn't the case and as a result lots of other governments who were fighting the war against them
Didn't even know that was the case. There was a few people who suspected it was, but it's only in hindsight.
Do we know that? So he then began to see he was one of the few people that knew who wasn't on the Nazis team that could see this
just killing machine that was
happening.
Okay, so you can imagine here, talk about pessimism, has every reason to be pessimistic.
He's seeing the worst of humanity that's ever existed.
Talk about agency, he's literally a prisoner, and if you try and escape Auschwitz, they
will just, essentially, if they find you, they'll put out a three-day dog squad, they will
hunt you down, and they will hang you in front the everybody else just to show what happens to you.
So he teamed up with Alfred Weetzler, and actually just to rewind for a second, the most
harrowing thing about his story, going why he could be so pessimistic and solo agency
is he meets a girl in the concentration camp called Alice Monk and loses his virginity
in the concentration camp and then she gets killed the next day in the gas chambers
and he kept seeing that and again talk about pessimism, talk about low agency every single reason to be
but decided you know what fuck it I'm going to try and escape so he teamed up with Alfred Weetzler
and essentially what they did was there was some wood just outside the camps that they hid under these barrels of wood
boom the Nazis as they're counting in at the end, they go, where's 4407 are, because they take their names from them,
so they just have numbers. Where are they? They released the dog squad, and they hid under
these barrels of wood. The most high-agency part of it, they cover themselves in gasoline and tobacco,
so the Nazi dogs couldn't find them, even though they were right literally on the perimeter.
There's one point where they almost find them and he has a knife because he's about to take his own life
Okay, they don't find them three days goes by they have an air they've kind of stayed awake. They escape
They sprint as fast as they can run all the way through Slovakia
No, good run through Slovakia in concentration camp uniforms where everyone's surrounding them
And Nazi simplifies us because that's what they put in place with no Google maps no uber run through Slovakia. In concentration camp uniforms where everyone is surrounding them and not see
sympathizers because that's what they put in place. With no Google maps, no Uber, no
no no no WhatsApp to chat to the like the squad. You know what I mean? Like this is like the
most harrowing thing where and if they get caught killed immediately, run I think it's like a
hundred and a hundred or so miles through, get all the way there and then the most beautiful
part is kind of
the few things that happens afterwards.
So one, rather than writing incredibly emotional
rapport, which you should have done that,
they killed the girl he lost his virginity to, right?
It's dark.
You could tell them, like, they killed the girl I love.
They wrote the most objective,
the Kinsey-like report of this killing machine
that was Auschwitz, And that people didn't believe
them for quite a while. Again, rather than rest on these laurels, this guy goes and joins
the Slovakian army and they say, we're not going to give you a pistol. We'll give you
a machine gun because of like the kind of guy you are just based off this fucking story.
Yeah, we don't give boys like you pistols. Yes, we give them machine guns. So that's
the kind of guy. Again, just escape that, but he's back on the front line. The beautiful thing, well, there's the
dark side and there's a beautiful side, but the dark side is because going back to
what I said earlier, people didn't understand what was happening at the time. It wasn't
believed for a while until Churchill and the Pope ultimately got the report and then began
to put more and more pressure on the Nazis. So it was a big fact to be recommended. Reckoning, they reckon he saved 200,000 lives
just from his actions alone.
After the war, he goes on lives in America,
he's a lecturer at pharmacology,
basically none of his students know the story of what he did.
And the most beautiful thing I found a YouTube video
that has 56 views on it,
where this guy who used to know him very well
said that everybody, apart
from Verba, who he knew that escaped or went through Auschwitz, Verba dressed insanely
well, because he never wanted that freedom to be taken away from him ever again, so he
dressing like the most outlandish, amazing suits. And for me, talk about a film that is
better than Transformers 12, better than Fast and Furious, say, but nobody knows who, I
mean, a few people do,
but most people do not know who he is,
and why isn't there a day named after him?
It's for me it's insanity.
The most high agency man of all time.
I think in terms of name to agency ratio,
yeah, it's read off urban for sure.
That's very cool.
Yeah, I put Dick Fosbury in the TEDx talk
that I did a few years ago,
and I think that that's a good example as well.
You know someone who was being
maligned in a very different way, but he was mocked, you know, to try and break the
existing hegemony that was the
Cisic, the Cisic Kick, I think was the current one that people were using and he was an engineer by trade.
So he had analyzed what was happening
with regards to the center of gravity,
how you could get yourself as low as possible.
And yeah, he was laughed at by everybody.
You know, he competed in the Olympics.
I think it was maybe Japan or career or something like that
in the 60s when he did win.
He had two different pairs of nikes on.
He didn't have the same pair of shoes,
and he missed the opening ceremony
because he wanted to go to a museum.
So this guy was an unbelievable outlier,
but he had the courage of his convictions,
and I think that that's one of the big differences.
Well, it's that idea, which is,
if you used to go back to 1850
and try and explain the concept of Wi-Fi,
it would blow that, but it would not be seen
as favorable, but that idea exists. You just needed a combination of ideas, what we spoke about
earlier, and then high-agency individuals and humanity working together and compounding. So,
the question you then think is, but what is going to be Wi-Fi for us now? They're 100 years from now,
however long it's going to be. That was so obvious. One of my favorite examples, which is of much more base level, is wheeled suitcases.
So before, I think it was 1970s, everybody used to carry their suitcases everywhere.
And it reminds us that great bit of the smartest men at the time, the smartest physicist,
used to get on the train or the plane carrying their suitcases.
And the question is, is where's the wheeled suitcases right now?
It was one guy who comes along and goes, hold on, let's put some wheels on that.
Jim Jeffery has a great bit and he's new Netflix special where he says,
feasibly Neil Armstrong as he was getting on the rockets.
Like was there carrying on these suitcases.
And because one day we'll put a rocket on these without realizing.
And that's again going back to questions, questions of the answers that you need.
Where is the wheel suitcase right now?
And that's a question that can keep you up at night.
Where it's so obvious that everyone's just copying the crowd and being mimetic.
So a lot of people will think, I would be a high agency.
I want to be around people that are high agency.
How can you tell if your
friends and the people that you hang with are high or low agency?
I think going back to what we mentioned earlier, which is, do they kind of bend the environment,
no matter what situation you put them in, do they bend it?
The dinner last night, he said, energy transference.
So I had this essay I've never published,
which is sofa friends versus treadmill friends.
And there's certain friends that I hang around with
afterwards I need to rely on a sofa
because they kind of drain you of the energy.
And then there's other friends that we mean you know
what you hang around with them and you're like,
fuck, seven mile run, let's go.
We overclock our brains.
That's, so I think a big thing that you'll see is energy
transference. I always say that Steve from Diary of a CEO who I used to work at his company,
there was this thing where I would walk in the office in the morning and I'd open the door
and bear in mind Steve could be in the London office, Manchester office, Berlin office, New York
office, he's constantly jet-saying around. And I go, I could just see from people's faces and how much energy was in the room, I got our steves here
today. We've got even seeing him. And I think that's like an often thing is, when they enter a room,
the energy just completely changes. I think that's an often combination of high-age and
individuals. You had weird teenage hobbies. Weird teenage hobbies is another one. So,
I often hire for this, like I can be a job interview. And if they mention a weird teenage hobby, I kind of lean in quite a lot, which I probably shouldn't
say public now because now people are going to start bringing those up. But when you're
young, especially when you're a teenager, it's probably your low, most low agency state
because you want to copy the crowd, you want to be mimetic of everybody around you.
However, if you can at that age, whilst everyone else is going playing football or rugby,
be super into yo-yoin, or super into football freestyle,
or super into whatever it is.
For me, that's a good sign,
because if you can swim against the tide when you're 15
or the environment of people mocking you,
so much easier as you're not.
We're so formative as well, right?
A lot of the things that you do in later life
are echoes of what you did when you were a kid.
There's a really great study that I looked at that the music that you listen to between
the ages of 11 and 15 imprints on you for the rest of your life.
So that's why you have generations of music trends that go like I still love emo and post
hardcore because I grew up in like the Hawthorne Heights and Blink 1, 8, 2, era.
That was my, that was what I listened to, right?
And then there'll be other people that I listened to, whatever it might be.
God help the people that are growing up now, like Megan D. Stallion and Cardi B.
But you've got the golden question as well, which is something that we've used.
I think you might have spoken about this on the first ever episode that we did.
What's the golden question?
The golden question is, if you were stuck in a third world prison,
or you were stuck on an island, then you
had to call someone to bail you out, who would you call? And that alone will identify the
most high agency person in your life. Because within that, you need a combination of,
I mean, some kind of delusional optimism to be able to pull it off. You need some relentless
kind of resourcefulness to try and operationalize that and you're going to need to be
have that energy transfer and still be able to convince people or whatever the fuck whatever plan you're going to have to put together. So I'd say that is probably the most impactful thing
when predicting high agency. One that I see as well is immigrant mentality. So if somebody's moved
from their hometown, quite a good sign, if someone's moved from their home country, even greater sign,
and you then see these immigrants
across particularly America, right,
who absolutely dominate,
because if you can sit there and go,
I'm in the wrong place,
and so I have to acknowledge them in the wrong place,
I have to admit, I think everybody else
or the people around me,
I disagree with their decision, at least for me,
and to have the growth mindset to then operationalize a move
and start from zero.
That of in itself is kind of quite a meta-story.
It doesn't mean that everybody who migrates is high agency,
but I'd say it is quite common.
Not being able to predict people's opinions,
as well, I think, is unusual.
Oh, yeah, I have a friend of mine called Katty,
and I love hanging around with him,
because I don't know what he's going to say.
Because he doesn't just line up with,
oh, for example, you'll have the body builder
who you'll stereotype them.
You probably get this a little bit as well, right?
People don't expect you to be in great shape,
form a model, and then chat about neuroscience
with a guy coming on and hold your own.
So I love people when you can't fully predict their opinions or you have
the beauty queen who's super into nature or the marketer who's obsessed with the history of war whenever someone just falls into that obvious stereotype
makes you think that they haven't thought about things but when they go hold on a second
like you was on love Island, but you're super into
Changabat astro-thysics that's probably quite a high agency individual because they've clearly gone against what should
be their default programming.
Yeah, if you know one opinion that somebody holds and from it you can accurately predict
everything else that they believe, they're probably not a serious thinker.
They're just NPCs just downloading scripts.
But there is somebody out there who falls into the perfect mold of, I am pro-life and I'm
pro-gun and I'm pro-first amendment and I'm like small government and I'm like anti-immigration
and I'm blah, blah, blah.
You are the complete caricature stereotype of the person that's from the right and there
is the same from the person that's from the left.
But most people are so idiosyncratic that you should have something that doesn't fit.
It should be this nice smooth, except for those two bits.
You're like, what's that doing there?
Like why are you pro choice but pro gun?
Or why are you like pro immigration but pro small government?
Like why did those things go together?
And when you find somebody that has a non-typical sweet
of beliefs, it's interesting because you think,
oh, you've arrived at this point on your own. This is one of the things I did this video
about Sam Harris ages ago, three, four years ago. Why Sam Harris is annoying everybody?
It seems like he's like continued, like true to form over the last few years. But I have
to respect what he's done with regards to that because
he pays an unbelievably high price to hold the opinions that he does, which gives me a
great amount of faith that he truly believes in them. It would be much easier for him to
fold either one way or the other. He like, how can it's very untypical to be pro-vax,
but anti-woke, like anti-Trump, but also kind of anti-Biden. Like,
you know, he just holds a suite of beliefs that whether you agree with them or not, and
almost everybody disagrees with some of them, right? There's very few people that hold
the exact same Sam Harris suite of beliefs that Sam Harris does. But the price that he pays
to hold them is so high that for me, it's a reliable signal of authenticity because there
are much easier routes to existing in the world than holding that odd conglomeration
of views.
It makes you think they've fought it through and I realize the favorite of my favorite
people to hang around me now, I don't have to agree with them on anything, but have
they fought things through.
I find that fascinating and then do they update their beliefs. The other one on the high agency list was, are they mean to your face
but nice behind your back. And you often don't see the people who are nice to your face and
mean behind your back because by definition, it's behind your back. So another concept
we can come onto is hidden metrics, but on that specific thing, it is a hidden metric. You don't see people being rude behind you back. And I think often a good indication
of somebody probably being nice behind your back is probably someone who's mean to your face.
Well, at least you know that, and if not, at least they're consistent.
What people that are nice about other people who aren't there to your face.
That's a good one. Or the inverse. Are they amazing friends, amazing families to room,
and they go, oh, have you seen what they're wearing or if you see an XYZ,
that's for me a sign of, like, it takes a lot of agency
to go against gossiping, which is one of the most innate human things.
Correct. Being a gossip tells you as much about the person
who is gossiping as it does about the person that they're gossiping about.
Because what it tells you is that as soon as the scrutiny of the person
that they're talking about is no longer there, they're going to be prepared
to talk about you.
I've said before, the stuff that is on this phone would break the internet for weeks.
For weeks, dude.
I have shit on there, which is like...
Procellic level.
Transparent Roberts.
It's dead. Yeah, but the DPR.
But I, you know, it's my way of going about life that I'm like, okay, well, I guess I'm
just going to like hold this secret for the fucking rest of time.
It's exciting for me to have like one of the other ones as well, I think is sending people
niche content.
Oh, but there's going back to the root of urban story.
I found that from one of the things,
I talent I have that I can't really monetize it, I spot content creators really early on,
going back to the beginning of the conversation, probably this until you're on the first
ever episode, it took a while for that penny stock to find the boom, it's doing well,
right? And there's a lot of other examples like that. And one of the low agency things
is, okay, this has six million views, therefore I will click on it. What I now do is I'll go in the Twitter feed or the YouTube Explore feed or whatever,
and I look for things the algorithm is recommending me with very few views, and I click on that,
and this nine out of ten times is absolutely a waste of time, but one out of ten you'll tap into
something that everybody else isn't tapping into. But by definition, that is the meme of seeing a crowd,
like, I created that meme of how to be productive versus
how to be creative and everybody's queuing outside how to be productive, but no one's
queuing outside how to be creative.
But at a meta level, that's a concept right of what are the things that nobody's clicking
on that will then potentially be big in the future.
And you have to do that like a VC where you know, nine out of ten of your bets are going
to be completely incorrect, but that one out of ten is clicking on a Bitcoin article in 2014.
Yeah, like how many, you've had what, 30 million views on that verbist story I think on Twitter.
Because whereas everyone else is just regurgitating the same shit versus if you can tap into
other inputs that was my big thing about creativity the essay that went viral on that which is
created the problem of creativity is people treat it like productivity where they just try and
do the same thing harder versus try and get as many different inputs into the system as possible.
Now, YouTube, Explore page and all these things can just keep you in this hamster wheel
versus you need to try and break out.
Because you're predictable.
Because you're predictable.
Search weird things and before you know it, you find some bizarre inputs that can either
go one way or the other.
Yeah.
The niche content thing and looking for different ideas and where do they come from is a really
interesting way to conceptualize productivity versus creativity. Really interesting idea
to look at there is what's the work environment that you're doing this particular job in.
So for instance, if you've ever walked into an artist's studio, Zach in my house made
his misses as an artist, right? So I go into the room where she does her art and there's stuff fucking everywhere.
There's like vapes and there's there's there's a half done sketches and there'll be like a dog
brush and there'll be like a Bluetooth speaker, but it's like upside down and there'll be
can't also it's chaos. It's fucking chaos. That is the place that you want to be and there
will be books and all sorts of other stuff. That's the place that you want to be if you
want creative ideas. It's not the place you want to be, and there'll be books and all sorts of other stuff. That's the place that you want to be if you want creative ideas.
It's not the place you want to be in if you're doing your taxes.
No.
When you're doing your taxes, you want to be a nice clean desk.
You want to have all of your stuff in front of you.
You don't have any distractions.
And yeah, the obsession that people have over productivity is so all encompassing
that I don't think many people in the modern world have ever looked at a problem and thought
anything except for I need more productivity.
Every single lock gets filled with the key of
more focused, more productivity.
The reason I can't do this is because I'm insufficiently attentive.
Well, sometimes, and maybe even a lot of the time,
and this may be a comment on how replicable
and almost formulaic a lot of people's jobs are now that, you know, many roles should
be concerned about the forthcoming GPT revolution, but a lot of the time, okay, what's the creative
angle to the thing that I'm trying to do? If you're trying to write a book, sometimes
you need to sit down and just put your nose against the grindstone because you're not getting the stuff out. But if you're struggling
with ideas, you probably need to go for a fucking walk.
Yes. But we come from an institutionalized system, which is the education system, which
was designed to create factory work.
Wondered when we would get onto education. Yeah. Can't take you anywhere without you blasting
the education system.
But I think that's definitely a factor, but it goes back to that question of where is the wheel suitcases?
And constantly asking that at a societal level,
but even right now in your very life,
like where is that simple solution that's so obvious?
There's just staring you in the face,
but because you're trying to be so productive,
you can't quite see it.
Yeah, so a good example for me,
I've started doing Barry's boot camp first thing in the
morning.
I've been telling you about this.
I've been struggling with motivation to train consistently.
I can train on a weekend with friends, but training on my own is getting way, way
harder.
And I think it's because I'm under a fair bit of pressure with the show.
And I've known for a very long time that classes for me externalize my motivation.
They give me a time that I need to be there. They condense down the training into a short period of time, there's a coach that
makes sure the programming is to, it outsources everything that I need to do. And I just forgot
that that was an option. And then one day was walking past Barry's on the way to go to Flower Charles
where we went for dinner last night, thought I should, I should book in to go there. Sure enough, signed up online and I've been to tons and tons of classes now.
And by 8.30am, I've got 50 minutes of training in.
I've done my morning routine.
And by 9am, I can be on a call, having trained and done all of my morning stuff.
I'm like, wow, even if I'd been at home, I would have struggled to have been as efficient.
So oddly, the creative solution has opened up a degree of productivity as well.
The three biggest things I found for coming up
with creative ideas are one,
you can get this spinning wheel app on your iPhone.
I just search spinning wheel app on the app store.
And collect, going back to questions earlier,
just collect great questions that you hear
like, where's the wheel suitcase right now in my life?
And as you collect more and more of those questions, things you hear on podcasts, things people say to you, just spin that wheel before bed.
Leave it with your subconscious overnight, and then journal on that thing
first thing before any any inputs, absolutely fantastic for coming up of ideas.
Second biggest one is, it's idea called saccoco.
I believe it's how I don't know if that's how you actually pronounce it.
But I was sat in the moldies for a week without any inputs and I came up with this idea which is, if you ask anybody where they want to travel, everybody, certainly
I know, I'll at 90% say Japan. Why is Japan, why do people want to travel to Japan so much?
But if you study the history of Japan, they practice soko, I believe, again, probably butch in the pronunciation,
where they closed the borders for 250, 260 years.
Anybody who tried to leave and come back killed,
anybody who tried to enter killed.
And as a result, while the rest of the world was trading ideas,
it developed this crazy, insane, beautiful, unique culture
that there's nowhere else in the rest of the world
and that's why people want to go and visit it because it's so creative and so new
Because it wasn't cosmopolitan. It didn't get diluted down by other cultures
Exactly and then go back to the double think idea though at the other end of a spectrum is another tool
Which is that if you search on YouTube Swedish house mafia creating one and it starts with them like tapping like this
And they go all the way up to them just jamming in a studio at three creative guys to creating one and it starts with them like tapping like this and they go all the way up to them
just jamming in a studio at three creative guys to creating one live in like the space of a minute
of the edit and it's amazing and you can see like you put three people in a room with no inputs
from the outside world and they just pickle ball or idea tennis their way to it. So I think spinning
wheel helps time alone definitely helps on the longer the better,
as well as getting some kind of idea camp with the smartest people you know, and just
shutting out the world that way.
We came up with similar ideas.
I came up with anxiety costume.
You came up with thinking cost.
What's thinking cost?
Thinking cost everyone will relate to, which is this idea that your brain is a super computer.
And you can try this.
I'll give this as an experiment to anyone listening right now.
Try and have two thoughts at the same time.
And maybe there's the elite IQ guys that me and you definitely
are, and the Nikola Tesla is out there that could do it.
But I can't have two thoughts at the same time.
So in that in mind, you've got this weird thing where you have a supercomputer, but it can only one run one program at a time, quite a quite a pack of the human
brain paradox. And why this is interesting is when you have super dramatic, super negative people
going back to what we said at the beginning where ideas are probably the most important thing,
beginning where ideas are probably the most important thing, it's hard to think about the wheels on suitcases when your girlfriend's ram if you're about XYZ or somebody in the
WhatsApp chat kicking off.
Because what people don't see, which is a hidden metric, but everybody has it, well I know
I have it, so I think everybody else has it, which is when those events happen, then when
you're in the shower, it's running.
And it's just eating away that super cute, super computer's ram constantly. So there's
a opportunity cost that exists for every single thought. So whenever you have a thought,
there's trillions of other thoughts that you could be having, but because you're super computer,
can only run one program at a time, it's not having. So you've got to have a defense and an
offense system that I think anyway. So the
defense system is avoid dramatic people as much as you can. Paul Graham has my favorite
essay ever, which is life is short. I read it whenever, even if anybody gets sick or
anybody dies, and he kind of closes the whole thing off of like relentlessly prune bullshit.
So just get relentlessly prune bullshit whenever it gets in your life prune it purely
because there's a thinking cost to everything that you do or every thought that you have.
And also whenever but I never see what will happen is you will still have those dramatic loops that get in there. You can't have a complete
defense against them. But then I can't afford which is whenever you have a bullshit thought loop that happens.
loop that happens, what is the opportunity cost of this thought? Like, what is the wheels on suitcase that I could be thinking about instead? And then you kind of judo throw its momentum
against it. So thinking cost is the idea that every cost, every thought has an opportunity
cost and you should be hyper vigilant to that.
Yeah. Peterson said the first time I ever brought him on the show about the price that you
pay for in action. Contemplate the price you pay for an action.
You're already in a little hell, you know perfectly well it's going to get worse.
The thing about inaction is that you're blind to it, do not make the assumption that in action
has no price.
And this is the same thing that the thinking cost actually is the price that you pay,
but it's so unseen, right? People are prepared to waste the peace of their own mind over and over and over and over again in order
to not make a difficult decision because the difficult decision feels more real. But
peace of mind is one of the key desires that almost everybody should be striving toward.
The problem with peace of mind is it's a hidden metric. So if you kind of zoom all the way out,
I have a few fundamental questions I keep going back
to with all my writing, and then you kind of zoom a bit higher
and it's the optimism high agency thing.
And if you actually zoom the highest point,
which I've not actually written about just yet,
which is kind of viewing everything,
going back to Rick and Morty's Royal,
the video game of life, like,
with assimilation hypotheses,
but just thought that's more optimistic, more high agency, which is the video game of life, like, with assimilation hypotheses, but just forked that's more optimistic,
more high agency, which is the video game hypothesis.
And one of my fundamental things of this kind of religion slash philosophy is metrics are
one of the most important things.
And one of the reasons why people obsess over money is because money and your bank account
is the best video game ever designed.
It's multi-player, competing against other people,
oh this person makes this much, I only make that much,
number going up and as a result,
things like peace of mind, which is a metric
that we can't quite measure yet, but we all feel it.
We only really begin to look at it when we're in rehab
or when we have an anxiety attack on the boss into work
or whatever it is.
And that's why I think Hidden Metrics,
once you see it, well, you never see it,
but then once you kind of mentally see it,
you begin to see it everywhere.
Or Moses has that great bit of the Instagram model.
You take the Instagram model.
The visible metrics, quite clear, right?
You get to post it on your Instagram.
It's great, everyone thinks you're cool.
But when you kind of lie in bed at night with somebody
who you got, I have nothing in common with you at all.
The Damocerium problem. You don't see that, yeah, I'm sure he's happy with you at all. The damn Valsarian problem.
I'm sure he's happy about it.
You don't see the hidden metric.
Hmm.
Yeah.
Why is it that you are such a fan of the Roy scene from Rick and Morty?
It's the header on your Twitter.
And you've got a hoodie.
You've got a custom printed hoodie that I met you on the way to Dubai.
Because the mask as well during COVID-19, we're all on as well.
I think it's because it's the, like, it's one of my favorite things that I began to
notice that was happening is you hit 25 and life goes mental.
So up from zero to 25, everybody's on the same path pretty much.
There's slight variance, but everyone has these guardrails of first
year, second year, third year, high school, university. But then you hit 25 and there's
so much variance that happens where I have friends that are selling NFTs for ridiculous
amounts of money. I've got friends going to prison, I've got friends having a baby,
like there's so much variance that begins to happen and you begin to go fuck, like religion
is quite a useful tool,
but as a lot of people who are atheist, agnostic, there's nothing out there that quite exists,
and the simulation hypothesis is probably the best we've got, and that's fucking nihilistic,
isn't it?
So the idea that there's just infinite versions of me sat in a machine, but if I can move
back to the video game hypotheses, where I know, I began to notice that the laziest
people I know, the most nihilistic, pessimistic, low-agency people I know, could
sit and play a video game for 15 hours and be amazing at it.
So I have this theory that video game designers know more about human psychology than 99% of
psychologists.
The video game industry is bigger than music, TV and entertainment combined.
The amount they know about human psychology I think is fascinating.
So the kind of Roy is just viewing life as a video game and trying to shift from the first
person shooter of me identifying with this to just third person, whether it's true or
not, probably not, it might not be a video game, but is it a useful belief to have, probably?
Yeah, I think depersonalizing a lot of things is good. Like that's one of Peterson's questions,
right? Like treat yourself like you are somebody you were responsible for helping. Like treat your life like a character
that you were responsible for playing.
To say as Rogan's thing,
imagine that you're the hero of your own story.
You know, all of these,
like what do all of these different ideas have in common?
It takes a third person perspective.
It depersonalizes a lot of the things
that are going on to you because
it's very difficult to give yourself that you're so embedded in the experience of being you. And there's so much
going on that clouds your ability to make good decisions. That actually being able to
have a third person perspective is probably about as close to a superpower as you can be.
And gamification, like people talk about God is dead, therefore what's the point?
Why do we do anything?
But with a video game, you're not replaying it for any reason, but it's just a fun game.
And I feel there's so much to be unpacked about video game psychology that can get implied.
But the biggest thing, or certainly one of the biggest things, is this concept of metrics.
When you have a clear metric that people can optimize, what's that?
The Cobra effect, wherein the bridge started offering Indians money for Cobra's, because
they've got such a big problem with them, and then they started breeding them.
You could know what a better version of that is.
It was to do with rats, another country, they had a massive problem with rats, and what
they said was that they would pay people to bring in rat tails. What they realized was that there was thousands
and thousands of tailless rats running all over the city.
So that's it. So you, Q for Boy has that concept of parametrics where you have two metrics.
So if you have a customer support team and you say, hey, decrease the fraud rate, well,
then they start treating every single customer like a potential fraudster. Yeah, you may achieve
that goal, but every customer hates you forever.
Good hard, good hard, Laura.
Yes, you need to balance that with an opposing metric.
So going back to like the money video game, which is a great video game, but if you could
then have peace of mind as an opposing metric.
And I wonder if you could literally visualize peace of mind as a dashboard that you could
see every single day, I think the impact that would have on people's lives would be so significant.
A hundred percent.
I mean, you know, this is what people fundamentally don't understand about Hormosi is that he
finds peace of mind through doing business.
So I didn't understand it until I really, really drilled deep with him.
And he may be lying to me and I don't know, but like at least what he says is that he
finds his most peace when he's chasing money. So for him, money and peace are the same thing, but because most people
don't have that particular opinion when it comes to their work, they don't have theory of
mind to understand what it would be like to be Alex or Mosey, like what would it be like
for your work and the most peaceful thing that you do to align to the
point where you and your partner believe that not having kids is a smarter idea because
you can literally serve the world better through legacy, through a company than you can through
children.
I challenge you that people don't, can't empathize with that.
They maybe just haven't added frame to them correctly where people can always think of
a game they played that's so addictive
that they end up playing for the sake of playing with them.
What was some of yours? Do you ever get addicted?
You've got your brothers, like professional esports player.
Yeah, he was very, very good. So I saw that first hand, but for me, I've at football free
style was my thing right, so I trained four hours every single night and do that, and then
decided I actually want to lose my virginity at one point, so I stopped doing that.
So when you have something that you're just doing purely for the sake of doing, I mean,
you're doing this with the podcast, right Yeah, we spoke last night and I said
You're the only person I know that would have stuck it as long as you did without
The metric really but you was playing it purely for the sake of playing it
But your metric so the difference your metric wasn't the subscribers on the view count really part of it for sure
But I knew if it was you would have quit
But it was purely an infinite game that you was playing and because it was such a well-designed
video game for you, then it keeps going on.
It's the biggest piece of advice for people that ask about, you know, I want to start a podcast,
like what should I do or how should I begin or, you know, what's your piece of advice.
And like, if you don't enjoy it, don't do it because you are not, it's going to take you 150 episodes to earn anything. It's going to take you
400 episodes before you're probably, unless you've got an existing platform, it's going to take you
400 episodes before anybody really cares about what you're doing. It's going to take so long,
and that's weekly.
Well, an idea I have with that is pricing things in. So I think it's a hedge fund term where you kind
of price in upcoming events.
And when you're starting new things like that, so when I take you e-falling, which people
don't know, it's like a electronic surfing, everyone saw Mark Zuckerberg go viral of it,
which is one of my funny videos.
You don't even mean DJ Khaled.
DJ Khaled, drop that clip in there, Dean. So with that, one big thing I've now recognized,
because I always take new people with me, I'll say to them, I go, you're gonna fall off 50 times before you get good at this.
Versus if they come at it,
we've just, oh, I'm gonna be good at this immediately,
and then they start falling off,
it immediately rocks their self-esteem,
whereas if you say, hey,
they're gonna be 50 times before you get good at it,
Mr. Bees says that as well with YouTube,
he goes, just make 100 videos, and then we'll chat.
And I think you've got a constantly pricing things,
I've got, okay, it's going to take me 12 months
in the gym before I see anything.
And if you price that, and I always like really conservative
pricing in, because that's how you say 5-depth episodes
you've got to do your podcast.
And you get it at episode 212, you feel great.
But if they go in with a mindset of,
well, level one, it's going to work.
Therefore, but again, I structure all my Apple notes
to do this.
So like for every single day, it's the most
lindenthing I've done for years,
is level one, thought dump. Don't pay everything I've got to do today. Level like for the every single day, it's the most lindy thing I've done for years is level one thought dump.
Dump everything I've got to do today. Level two, decide on the levels. And boom,
I'm already feeling good and every project I do will be designed like that
because just me writing down what I've got to do, I've already hit level and I
can feel that momentum growing versus if it's like have a successful day, I'm
constantly trying to play level 32 and failing. So again, it goes back to that.
So how do you, given what you've suggested there is essentially to price in difficulty and
to also kind of have low expectations of success, how does that marry with the skeptic
sky to optimism?
Well, it goes back to that 1% every day. It goes back to the secret is bullshit. You're
not going to immediately change things. You're going to need to combine optimism, combine
agency. But the most important thing is infinite games that you can play for the
sake of playing them. That's exactly the thing with Hormosi, but at least the impression
I have of them, he's doing it like a game and he wants to do this until he dies and that's
why he can keep playing and keep compounding exactly the same with you with this podcast,
which is why you didn't quit.
It's going to be very difficult to be beaten by somebody that isn't having fun if you are.
Right? Like what's that?
Tiago forte, it's incredibly difficult to compete with someone who's having fun.
So that was thinking cost, which was yours. Anxiety cost was similar,
but a little bit more acute, a bit more short term. This is what I'd come up with.
So as you identified, you can only have
one thought at a time. And by making any kind of decision, inevitably, you're going to cut off
some of the potential wasted thoughts thinking about that undun task. So let's say every single
morning when you wake up, you're daily to do resets,
right? I need to walk the dog and meditate and take a shit and speak to my mum or whatever
it is that you do every single day, right? There are certain things that you do every single
day. The longer that you wait to do those things, the more time is taken up thinking about the
fact that you haven't yet done those things, which is an argument for front loading stuff
into your morning, right? This is the interest rate constantly.
Yeah.
Every single time that you think, I need to meditate today.
I need to meditate today.
I need to meditate today.
Could have been, that's wasted thinking cost or anxiety cost as I called it, that you
could have fixed by simply meditating when you woke up.
And looking at your day, not only through ebbs and flows of energy, but also in terms of what captures a lot of my thought, what causes me stress.
How can I get that so that it's not only is the other thing, not only do you get to gain not thinking about the thing and being anxiously concerned that you still need to do it.
You also get to sort of bask in this beautiful self-righteous glow from your high horse of productivity because
you went out and you fistfucked it first thing in the morning.
It's perfect.
So next stuff, razors, both massive fans of razors, you did a super thread.
I'm one of the, I've selected some of my favorites.
I've added in some of mine as well.
The first one, bragging razor.
If someone brags about their successor happiness,
assume it's half what they claim. If someone downplays their successor happiness,
assume it's double what they claim, the map is not the terrain.
100%. And there's obviously acceptance to the rule, but I think that's quite a consistent rule
that I see. When I hear someone, particularly if it's money or if it's things like that when
they're bragging overtly,
I'm probably not really believe this.
But if someone's kind of playing it down
and there's a few subtle tells,
it's the classic midwit meme, right?
You've got probably my favorite meme of all time,
which is the low IQ guy on the left,
the kind of midwit in the middle,
and the super high IQ guy there,
where the low IQ guy says, I'm the guy on the left,
the guy in the middle says, I'm the guy on the right, and the guy on the right says, I'm the guy on the left, the guy in the middle says, I'm the guy on the right,
and the guy on the right says, I'm the guy on the left.
So, and you see this with wealth as well,
you see the super rich try and hide the wealth,
where it's the kind of people who are like,
the money to it crowd them too.
Screenshot the Shopify store and things like that,
where it's, why are you trying to signal that?
When you're trying to overtly signal,
you're probably trying to compensate for something.
Again, there's exceptions to the rule, but when someone's signaling so hard, it's probably
a sign that they don't have it.
We were in a location in Austin over the weekend, and a gentleman came up to us and one of
the first sentences out of his mouth was, 1500 people in the world have started a $1 billion
business.
I'm one of them. Now, I believe you're even less now.
Anyone who's seen Karl Pilkington's bullshit like this.
You wanted to go...
Bullshit!
Yeah.
Yeah, I think what it kind of suggests when somebody does steam in and start with achievements first, is any kind of bragging basically suggests to us, it's
a low status, very easy to fake signal of authenticity, right?
Like a hard signal of authenticity would just be, show me a bank balance or show me your
capacity. Someone telling you how smart they are is way less reliable of a signal than someone having
a conversation with you that flows perfectly and you think, holy fuck, like that's really
cool.
So, yeah, we're into personality quirks here around people's desire to be seen and their
needs for validation from the world around them. But I think generally the bragging razor of thinking, if I want to come across well,
allowing my achievements to arise as a byproduct of someone asking me about what I do,
this is another thing that happens in Austin that I had to introduce you to, which is,
since I've been here, when you join a new group at
a party or a gathering or whatever, and you get introduced by the one person that you
probably do know in that circle, they usually tell the group what you do.
And that allows everyone to bypass the bragging razor because your friend bigs up your best
achievements.
But again, it's a reliable adjudicator, presumably.
I'm not gonna lie about what, he's got a 17 inch penis
and I'm pretty sure that he's got the world high jump record
and he's like the first man on the moon.
Like I'm not gonna say that, right?
I'm gonna say the things reliably
that people can assume.
So next one, I love this one.
Instagram Razor, when you see a photo of an influencer
looking attractive on Instagram,
assume that there were 99 worst variations of that photo
you haven't seen, they just picked the best one.
100%.
And me and Josh, my business partner,
when we travel around,
would be in sometimes very nice restaurants
and we see the beautiful couple.
I don't think it's them necessary,
but they're kind of Tommy Fury
Molly made looking couple, not referring to them. And he's just kind of staring into
the distance. And she'll be there just going through her phone of like infinite photos
of her. And then on this girl trying to find the right filter.
One of the biggest repels I had recently was where I was at bar and then I looked over
and there's a girl on a photo of herself and she was face-tuning it live in real time. And now I realized it's the classic, where's the sausage made. And you've
got to realize that everything on Instagram that you see is absolute. It's just not true, it's the
Metaverse. It really is the Metaverse. Everyone's an animated character, completely edited, it's bizarre.
I love the fact that you have to assume as well that this is the best option out of
what everybody had and especially if it's someone that's got a pretty well curated Instagram
feed.
I suppose that's one of the advantages of, as you get to a particular level with creating
content online, you don't even know what's going out.
You know, the spin the wheel thing.
I have no idea what video goes out each day.
Like the short-steam finds things that they love and sometimes they'll be like,
oh, this bit with Mark Norman was really fun. Like, you should maybe put that out,
but they treat me like a child. Like, they've got a strategy and they know what they're doing.
So I'm like, oh, okay. Well, I guess that's just like, uh,
fucking close your eyes and put your hand in the celebrations, 10 and pull out our today.
It's a bounty tomorrow. It's a multi-user.
Oh, a good razor as well. Kind of related to this is both these razors are trying to avoid signals
and then trying to actually study the noise.
Oh, not the noise, sorry, but the actual thing.
So meta games, I think, are super important because you can learn a lot.
So I have this rule, which is, if I want to work with a personal trainer, I want the
personal trainer to be an insane shape.
And that's way better than any marketing spiel
he can give for me.
If I see a SaaS product which is selling
landing page software, I want when I click on
their landing page for that software to be incredible.
I like the landing page should look,
if you're the landing page software guy
and your landing page is great, that's a sign.
One of my favorite, one of my heroes
throughout history in a marketing space is David Oglevy. And David Oglevy, I forgot
which magazine it was. They wrote a headline which is, is David Oglevy a genius question
mark? And Oglevy was a great marker because the way he marketing himself, he replied to
that headline by getting his lawyer to sue them for the question mark. Or at least that's
the story that he released. I go, even within within that you can see how good he is at market.
He doesn't have to say like what he's done there is genius.
So whenever you can study these meta games, which is not what people say,
what they do or how they carry themselves is super, super important.
Mmm.
Narcissism.
Narcissism, Razor.
If you're worried about people's opinions, remember they are too busy worrying
about other people's opinions of them.
99% of the time, you're an extra in someone else's movie.
Yeah.
And then just when you realize everybody else has a separate video game that they're playing
and you're just, they're too busy.
When you're thinking about them and you're worried about them, assume the amount of thought
you give to other people, they're giving to you.
And then you realize how delusional that is. One of my friends was chatting about envy recently and he was talking about them, assume the amount of thought you give to other people, they're giving to you. And then you realize how delusional that is.
One of my friends was chatting about envy recently
and he was talking about how he wants to get rid of envy
as a thing.
And one thing that's useful with envy
is to realize that there's somebody out there
who's so envious of you,
who probably checked your Instagram,
checked for these things and constantly thinking about you.
And when you view it for that friend, you're Jesus,
that's really bad.
I'm actually not that worthwhile being envious of.
And you realize, oh shit, everybody else thinks
the way I think.
And that then enables you to go to like third person shooter
and begin to zoom out and just see, oh, I'm not that important.
No, there's that quote of, we would care far less
about what other people thought of us
if we realized how rarely they did.
Yeah. Does this other one, did you see that story about Churchill that people thought of us if we realized how rarely they did.
This is the one, did you see that story about Churchill that I posted of the young guy
who was showing around the houses of Parliament?
This was good.
So a young MP was being shown around Parliament by Winston Churchill.
As he wandered through the halls and offices, he asked questions about how the building
was put together.
Churchill obliged and gave the young man advice on how this world worked.
Upon entering the House of Commons Chamber, Churchill's new friends started referring to the MPs on the other benches as
the enemy. Churchill reportedly said, that's the opposition dear boy, the enemies behind you.
And what I loved about that was it became obviously what he's talking about is the fact that like
the people who you need to be concerned about are the ones that are on your team because you have
something that they want. That's the opposition. You know that they're out to get you like the people who you need to be concerned about are the ones that are on your team because you have something that they want. That's the opposition. You know
that they're out to get you to the people behind you that are the snakes that will stab
you in the back. But figuratively or symbolically, I think that I love that story because it
reminds us that we are our own worst enemy most of the time. That we see the world as being
some sort of adversary that is trying to do things against us. The world gives zero
of fucks about you. The world doesn't care less. Literally the entire universe is in difference
to all of our existence, right? Nope, not a blind blink. And I imagine that this is one of
the reasons why when we get to look at the night sky, it fills us with a degree of dread
and awe and insignificance that I think is very important to keep our ego small, to realize that everything's just going to keep on turning.
But also, this goes back to the cynicism skepticism thing.
You can personify the world as being a thing.
You know, you hear people say stuff like this, like, you know, the world is an evil and mean
place and it will try and break you down.
I've even nodded as Goggin said something similar
on the podcast and there are degrees to how it can be useful to see, to be alerts to threats out
there and to have resilience ready for things that are difficult to occur in the world.
But the world's fucking indifferent to you. The world doesn't care and personifying it and creating
a, an enemy out of the world, I think, is pointing the
finger in the wrong direction.
It's like it needs to be turned inward.
You are the person that knows all of your weaknesses.
You can say the most disgusting, terrible things to yourself.
You know, all of the trigger points that you should go through, you chastise yourself for
falling short, even though you've tried your hardest.
Like, you are your own worst enemy. There will never be anybody that can be as brutal to you as you can to yourself.
Realizing that helps you to ameliorate this adversarial view of the world. The world's just a tool.
It doesn't care about you. There are some people out there who genuinely have enemies,
right? But it's a rarefied strata of people and they've done something.
Tindaswindler.
Tindaswindler, yeah, exactly.
Yeah, I think so there's the nihilistic version of that.
It can be framed as nihilistic pessimistic, which is,
or nobody cares about you.
And therefore, it's a fucking point then.
But it goes back to the root opening of the conversation,
which is ideas are probably more important
than people.
The concept of electricity is so important, or the idea of critical thinking, or whatever
it is, this is why ideas are so much more important.
You can find, as an atheist or an agnostic, you can find God to some extent in these ideas,
something that's way bigger than you, that can last way longer than you that is so so damn important. There was a one that I came up with and this
is my first one. I'm adding it into the mix, which you've seen before. Shultz's Razer
do not attribute to group back group conspiracy that which can be explained by cancellation anxiety.
So that's a fucking great one. There's the Cummings razor as well, which kind of forks on the idea, which is Bellagy,
why my favorite fall isn't Twitter tweeted out, why doesn't every government in the world
have a dashboard?
So you can see how well they're doing.
It is, like, think of the core met, and you could debate over the core metrics.
You can even debate how you measure them and maybe have different parties and things
like that.
But all the core measurements, number of homeless people on the street, obesity rates, defray, why don't
we have a BBC 5 channel where you can just tune in like a CEO checking their dashboard
and we don't operate that way. And Dominic Cummings, Boris is from a right-hand man, retweeted
that and said, and I call this Cummings Razor, which is whenever you get confused by politicians
or you think it's some great conspiracy theory, it's basically this which is Cummings wrote, I can confirm at the time Boris does not have a
dashboard that he checks every day, it's not run by it like a CEO, he just reacts to newspaper
stories that come in each day, if everybody saw this, they'd sell everything and flee. And that's
a fundamental problem is, yeah, there's not actually a lot of malice that's going on, it's just a
complete lack of strategy, design, everything.
Gwinder had a post today that was money.
The idea of sinister elites controlling everything is popular because it's more comforting than
the truth that even our leaders don't know what they're doing and society is ruled mostly
by chance.
So good.
There was this other idea called compensatory control. Do you remember I talked about this age is an age is ago
compensatory control
So it's rich another Richard shotten here. So I was talking about how
people that
Were very early on before there was reason to believe that it was a lab leak people were
Attributing to global conspiracy the fact that we had this pandemic that was released like leak. People were attributing to global conspiracy, the fact that we had
this pandemic that was released. Like the people that were right weren't right because
they were educated, they were right because they were closing their eyes and throwing
it at a dartboard if they were right at all. Compensate Re-Control. When we feel uncertain,
when randomness intrudes upon our lives, we respond by reintroducing order in some other
way. Superstitions and conspiracy theories speak to this need. It is not easy to accept that important events are shaped by random forces. This is why,
for some, it makes more sense to believe we are threatened by the grand plans of malign
scientists than the chance mutation in a silly little microbe.
We just want to personify, see what it is, that personification again as well. And one
of the big reasons is that the world is chaotic.
We try to bring order to that chaos by personifying it.
So many different things that we could do.
What should we focus on?
Where should I put my time?
Am I doing it right?
Am I doing it right?
Please just tell me if I'm doing it right.
And as soon as you can create a narrative,
it's no longer random chaos.
Oh, there's a story.
It's like Harry Potter or it's like, succession or it's like pretty little liars.
Going back to what we said earlier, you can never guess their opinions for a high-agency people.
One of the things I love is as soon as somebody kind of, and I can be guilty of this as well, I'm sure you can,
but some kind of steam rolls with their identity belief or whatever their team sport is. It's just, if you had to give the best version
of the other team's opinion, what is it?
And you just see it crumble.
A lot of times.
Mungus race of that.
It's like steam running something.
You just completely see it crumble.
And a lot of them go, well, there is no argument for it.
And it's that we'll therefore, this is,
why did that such a, that is the most insane perspective
that totally disregards the fundamental way that humans work. If you believe the same
things that your opponent believed, you would be convinced by it too. As soon as you can
be convinced that two plus two equals four, you can no longer unsee the fact that 2 plus 2 equals 4 until somebody convinces you of something else.
Like, you don't get to choose to be convinced, right? You just are. It just happens.
Now, you can refuse to listen to things. You can be boneheaded around stuff.
But once you're convinced, that's it. It's game over. So understanding that if you were that
person, you would have that belief as well
I don't mean in a we have no free-world determinism type scenario that their particular suite of
Understandings and worldview perspective has resulted in them believing this thing
Which is counter to what you believe I learned this from Gwinder as well. He's coming back on a couple of weeks
Regirian rhetoric. So it's kind of like the,
what's the dialogue method that the Greek philosopher came up
with, is it Aristotle,
or people are gonna be screaming into their AirPods.
Anyway, there's this like,
the Socratic method, fuck for that.
Regerian Rathoric's kind of a little bit like the Socratic method,
but it's more investigative.
So you're almost trying to work out, just trying to work out what's true through asking questions.
And there isn't, Socratic method seems to be more like asking questions so that this
person arrives at the outcome that you want them to.
It's like, you know, the earth being flat, like, could you maybe think that it could be due
to this?
Could it maybe due to that?
Could it maybe, and you try to guide somebody toward an outcome?
Regirin Rathore rhetoric seems to be less biased,
it's got less of an agenda to it.
And yeah, I love that as an outcome
because you're like, I just want to find out,
I just want to know, I want to know
what that person believes
because if I believed it, I would be convinced too.
Yeah, leaning in with curiosity versus like immediate judgment
is, sometimes you may change your mind. And I, leaning in with curiosity versus like a media judgment is,
sometimes you may change your mind,
and I feel you can see that at like a political level or a societal level,
but then you zoom in all the way at the micro,
and you, everyone come right to this where,
go on search facebook.com if you're old enough,
and click on your old profile and go back five years,
and you'll cringe, for whatever reason you will,
you will cringe whether it's the outfit you wore,
the person you was dating, the opinions that you had.
And if you aren't cringing,
then you definitely should be
because you aren't involved as human being.
However, you then have to price in.
Okay, now, five years from now, what am I gonna be thinking?
And that's one of the things,
if you can start skipping ahead to that question now
versus waiting the five years,
maybe you actually get to that point in a year or two.
The worst thing is, man, when you do this game,
which both of us have done lots, right?
What in five years time is the wheels on the suitcase of my life
that I should be looking at right now,
where are the blindingly obvious changes that I need to make
that I'm going to wish that I did earlier,
that I'm going to wish that I committed myself to?
If you do the game of what do I wish that me 10 years ago changed,
altered, did, adjusted in terms of texture of existence or the way that I perceive the world. Lots of those are still going
to be the same ones that you need to do now for 10 years' time.
Like, it's the same pattern, it's the same, Wayskin has that idea of bridging the gap where
the mistake he made five years ago, it'll be a theme of something that will keep
occurring. And yeah, the actual specific mistake may change, but it could even just be the fact
that I keep thinking I figured out the answer. So you go, you look back yourself five years
ago, well, fact, fuck, I figured it out now, but you've not priced in the five years from now,
you're going to go, oh, fact, fuck, I've actually figured it out now, but it's the same thing each time. Going back to the secoco thing, I had this the weirdest one.
Again, a lot of alone time can both be great, but also very bad at that.
Friction to the quiet.
Friction to the quiet.
I don't know where this idea is.
I think it's even my greatest idea on my worst idea.
Yeah, I thought about turning into a guided meditation, which is, meditations you saw,
you can kind of observe yourself, but as A.P.S. agnostic,
people who don't have an immediate religion to fall into, they don't have any alternative to prayer.
And I really like the kind of Jeff Bezos, deaf, bad minimization framework, as well as the kind of Roy,
it's just a video game. And I came up with this thing, I was just sat there with no phone, no nothing.
My mind's just wondering. And a little bit of Christmas Carol thrown in there where
you calm your breathing and you skip ahead 70 years in the future and you kind of go, fuck, you take off the VR headset and you now, as you are now, listen to this podcast,
it was just a complete VR trip. You're actually 85 years old and you're in the worst care home
imaginable. And as your eyes slowly open, you begin to realize
and you try and embody this and feel the emotion
that you're you, if all your worst traits took over,
if all your pessimism took over, if all your low agency took over,
if all your isolating yourself from your friends and bitching about people,
everything that you can think about your worst version of yourself took over,
you're in a care home where there's fucking cockroaches on the floor
and the nurses never come in to see you.
And as you stumble around, you're just repeating all the mistakes that you've made in your
head, or repeating all them and physically feel that emotion.
And then as you're feeling that intensity, you get a knock on the door.
You move over with your Zimmer frame and your hips that feel like you've just run a marathon
the day before.
And standing back as you open the door is the absolute best version of yourself.
For whatever reason, he's lean.
He's like, he got none of the injury issues.
He's just built like RFK.
Yeah, he's built like RFK and he's prime.
He's on all the creativity, right?
He looks fantastic and he pulls up an iPad and he's prime. He's on all the creating, right? He looks fantastic.
And he pulls up an iPad and he plays you all the fucking amazing memories where the best version of you took over. And you feel that emotion to such an extreme intensity of that envy that you
have for the best version of yourself. And you look over and there's a clock on the wall
and there's just five minutes ticking. It's how long you've got left to live. And the emotion
then intensifies.
But before the best version of yourself,
before the RFK version of yourself walks out,
he says, okay, if I could give you the ability
to go back in time now, what would you do?
I'd give you one on my bank account.
He goes, okay, let's do it, let's do the trade.
However, you have to give you one thing today
that you're gonna show the best version
and write that down and then actually action it.
And I started doing that as like, fucking hell. Almost got like crying in a starbucks one day you put an information hazard warning before posting that online i think is probably worthwhile is pretty intense thing to do
are there any realizations are there any changes that you've made from that that aren't so personal that you can share? Um, yes.
I think really just thinking in much longer time horizons.
So thinking, okay, if I go to that 80, 90 year old self,
I really want to play games that I can play forever,
or that I can play for a long period of time, a video games that I can set up,
that compound out as well.
So I've kind of changed a lot of the way I think the way I operate the way I work around.
Much more long-termism,
much more long-termism because that's where all the games,
that's what you said to me last night of,
if anybody with a bit of talent, a bit of IQ, a bit of everything,
sticks out something for five years like you did,
playing the video game without the scoreboard going up,
but stick
it, and then boom, the compounding game happens. Like what percentage of your audience has
come the last 12 months? Like 90%. More. That's insane, right? It's so hard for people
that come from going back to the education system, an education system like that to comprehend
how things compound all of a sudden, but when you can zoom out and play those long-term
games, they can compound, and the beautiful thing is going back to it is even if your podcast never
took off, even if this thing never worked out and it's still me and you. Just making another round.
We still have to, it's got a lot of spucking back to us.
Yeah, it's still happening. You still had fun, which is kind of the kind of beauty
to say, if you can find a game that you can play forever, A, you'll probably end up making a lot
of money and then P worst gets noticed, you don no, at least it's a fun video game anyway.
The early late razor, if it's a talking point on Reddit or Twitter, you might be early,
if it's a talking point on LinkedIn or Facebook, you're definitely late.
Yeah, that's the confirmation. I try and think quite a lot about future trends.
As a result, you end up going back to what I said earlier, it's VC bets, nine out of ten,
I'll be wrong, but one out of ten, I'll be right. And the biggest thing I have is the amount of trends
I've spotted that came via Twitter.
And how far ahead you can live by living on the right Reddit,
the right Twitter's, and even now it will be like,
what's that chat, telegram chats, things like that.
And you can literally see it, slowly go all the way through,
and then hit peak mainstream when it's on Facebook,
or when it's on LinkedIn.
Dude, I did this the other day. This was from this week's newsletter and I think I told you about
this one too. The parental cloud gauge. I don't know this one. Do you know how I know when a news
story has reached genuine mainstream significance? It's not when it trends on Twitter or hits daytime
news or lands on front pages. It's when my dad messages me on Facebook about it.
I see your colleague, Mr. Rogan,
has been in the news again.
He also sent me one toward the back end of last year
saying that Andrew Tate spoke to T-A-I-T.
That Andrew Tate's a nasty piece of work, isn't he?
That's like, oh God, Tate, you've really gone
full mainstream now, man.
That's a good full of fun.
I think as well, one thing I've taken
since a book called The Sovereign Individual,
which is a fantastic book,
predicted a lot of future trends,
and they have within that,
which is this concept that,
if the Roman Empire fell,
which is like 476 AD or whatever,
they didn't acknowledge it at the time.
It wasn't people going around,
the Roman Empire fell.
It was only with the historians' glaze that we could acknowledge,
oh, that's when the Roman Empire will fall.
And this idea, I don't think the American Empire is ending
by any stretch of the imagination.
But one day, I assume it will end.
And the concept that you think you'll go on CNN one day,
and they'll go, oh, by the way, today, the American Empire ended.
Know what will happen is it'll be 70 to 80 years after
and historians will declare, oh, it's when X happened that it ended. And that's the reason why you really
can't outsource things to the news, because if you wait for the news to tell you, you'll
be late or you'll be wrong.
Thinking about how this reflects and works for the personal as well, I learned this from
Mark Manson, identity likes reality by one to two years. There's a lot of psychological
fallout from a rapid change in status. And this kind of relates to
the what will you and five years think about you today, what do they wish that you had known.
Only in retrospect do our lives make sense a lot of the time. So that quote about the funny
thing about life is that it needs to be lived forward, but it only makes sense and reverse.
And identity likes reality by one to two years means that you are permanently,
permanently playing catch up, especially if you have big changes in lifestyle and personal
growth. You know, everybody that's listening to this podcast is working on personal growth
to try to become better people every single day, which is beautiful, but it's very un-stabilizing,
very, very un-stabilizing because within the space, what's that? Every seven years, every single cell in your body has changed, right?
It's the ship of theseus idea that you can replace each individual plank on this ship
and after long enough, is it the same ship?
And there's also a way that girl breakup meme pages have used this to be like, girl, don't
worry, after seven years, there won't be a cell in your body left that was around when
you were with him. Which is actually kind of a nice way to think
about it, I suppose, if you're trying to get over a bad breakup. But it's very destabilizing
to have all of this stuff happening, right? And especially if identity lags reality by
one to two years, it's really, really tough. Okay, so who's me? What does it mean to be
me? Right, what does it mean to be me? Like who am I? Am I the me that I aspire to be?
Am I the me that I am now? Am I the me like it's a very very
destabilizing world to be in and I think that trying to
future prove yourself by
Thinking carefully by reflecting carefully on on what it is that
What the universal rules are that you're trying to follow?
I think, is
a much safer way to go about things.
Yeah, I think the more rules of thumb and raises that you can just have, the more useful
that is, Brian Johnson, the...
Which one?
Good point.
The...
Here's a point.
I don't know a single name that has more people in the public eye attached to it than Brian
Johnson.
Brian Johnson, singer of ACDC.
Brian Johnson guy that started to optimize.me.
I forgot about him, didn't you?
Brian Johnson, hey guys, Brian here.
Brian Johnson, the liver king, Brian Johnson, the longevity expert.
In the market space, that's what we call an SEO warfare.
I wonder about the longevity expert where he has the 4pm,
is it 4pm Brian or 5pm Brian?
Yeah, exactly where he's just, he's fired him.
He doesn't know he'll make a decision.
But yeah, I think the more rules of funds that you can have,
it simplifies things.
And then I actually think the ultimate hack
we've been speaking about a lot
whilst they've been here is who you are around.
I don't know if that's the kind of oldest
Dale Carnegie trope, but the memetic forces,
I wrote this essay a while ago,
which is cognitive biases are a bit of a scam,
or they've been sold incorrectly.
So cognitive biases.
Don't tell Shane Parish.
Cognitive biases, I think you'll agree,
which is cognitive biases are pessimistic
and low-agency versus you can actually just reframe them,
same way you take the simulation hypotheses
and end up the video game hypothesis, you can reframe them up to
the optimism high agency stack and it's cognitive superpowers. So you can just move things
like so mimesis. Everybody talks about mimesis often in a negative frame. You just copy
your desires from other people and there's some truth to that and some beauty to that.
But also you can actually use that as a whole. And maybe a lot of these things have actually
been designed,
not as cognitive biases, but things that...
Hyperbolic discounting.
Well, you've managed to reverse that by your meditation.
The hyperbolic discounting has brought the future into the present.
What's the name that you've given to the study by historians' question?
Have you named it yet?
Oh, the...
The... What is ignored by...
Yeah. Have you named that? Yeah, the what is ignored by? Have you named that? Yeah, so what
is ignored by the media that will be studied by historians? And then people point out, well,
there was this one example where the media mentioned this, the whole thing of it is the like the media
historian gap. So what is super prominent, so what is not prominent in the media right now that I
think will be humanlessly portioned up by history.
And there's so many things.
When you begin, again, it's another question.
It's another open loop that you leave at the audience
and versus like, oh, this is the thing.
Here's my, I've got a list of 10, the headline death gap.
The headline death gap.
So this is an image maybe Dean can whack you on the screen
of what headlines say will cause your death
or what they focus on versus what will.
And obviously terrorism is like off the chart, things like that are off the charts,
versus heart disease gets almost no mention in the media.
And it is absolutely humongous.
I have this bit that you did with Peter Ritea, where the, is it the mortality gap
between smoking and non smoking?
Smoker and a non smoke is 40% the mortality gap between the bottom 25% of exercise fitness and the top 2% is 400%.
So here's a question for you, an open-loop view. Where is the great pro-exercise campaigns right now?
If it's 10x or however much x the difference and if you can save that many lives,
there's because I collect the best ads of all time. And there's one in there which is like smoking
and there's actually studying on smoking ads
that the US government did.
It saved millions of lives they expect.
So where's the pro-exercise campaigns?
They don't exist.
Based off that, based off purely off that data alone,
they should exist on mass.
The interesting, the reason that the question is interesting
and I've called it a max-teal question
because Peter Teal's question of what do you believe that most people?
Is it most people would find a parent and most people would disagree with?
It's like yeah, what do you believe that everybody else essentially disagrees with you on it?
Right. Yeah, I feel like an extra again like everything. I'm a fucking budget version of which budget version of Peter Teal
Yeah, not even as gay
Who knows the night's young right?
So on that point, yeah, the media historian got,
and then you begin to see it everywhere.
It was more like a point of annoyance, right?
I just see these things,
I go, why is that not getting discussed?
And it goes back to opportunity cost as well,
where what are the things that we aren't discussing
because we're focused on things like that,
the more important things.
Fast and furious turn.
Fast and furious turn.
Well, I mean, we've said this.
Actually, this is an interesting one.
I used to say five years ago, most of the
greatest minds of the 21st century have had that time working out how to get people to click on ads,
but that changed about three years ago to many of the greatest minds of the 21st century have had
that time taken up arguing about whether men and men and women are not, which is also true.
Like, you know, Jordan Peterson, very formative for me during my
intellectual awakening from manchild to adult infant. And
I love his insights around the existential pain of living. I
don't go to him for insights around sports illustrated models.
There's just better things. And the weird thing about some of the ideologies that have captured attention of the opposite
side.
So you understand about how cultural memes are also evolved to, right, that the ones that
are built to propagate and to be continued to the ones that stick around, and there are
other ones that don't. Cultural memes act the same way that genetic genes do.
But there's something that happens on the opposite side of the fence
that it causes the effective cultural memes that stick around
are good at triggering a response from the other side.
They trigger an antibody response, which further propagates the meme because it lends more credence
to it. Now, sometimes I suppose the opposing side could keep on battering away to the point
where it gets destroyed. I think the word woke and the word politically correct are two
good examples of that. That comedians used it to, it was so quickly turned from non-ironic
to ironic and mocked through satire that no one uses the word woke in a non-ironic to ironic and mocked through satire that no one uses the word
woke in a non-ironic way anymore.
Everyone that uses it is using it as a piss take.
So there are ways that you can repurpose it.
It's not an argument to never push back against bad ideology, but it is an argument to realize
that if you start to play the game of the other side, whatever side you're on and whichever
side you hate, if you begin to play that game by pushing more attention toward what they're
doing, you do...
It's like a hydra.
It just chop off one of the heads off and it grows too more.
If you look at kind of the root structure of the conversation today, if you actually zoom
out, it's constant gaps, right?
So you've got the media historian gap.
You've got the thinking cost gap.
The gap between what I should be thinking about versus that.
And the beautiful things are, is that these are questions are the answers that you need.
These are questions that you can kind of explore for the transformers, fast and furious gap, right?
What's the media focusing on?
These questions that you can kind of explore for a lifetime, as well as it's quite a decentralized thing.
It's the audience can then participate. Well, that's a new data model versus hey here's the answer
I would love to create a
Page of some kind of I guess it can just happen in the comments
But it would be great for you to put a page out what isn't neglected by the media
But we'll be studied by historians if you crowdsource that yeah, that'd be that I'd be a fascinating one
And then you can obviously
retrospectively see it throughout time as well. There's so many of those gaps, there's another one
that I have at the minute which is what problems aren't we solving because capitalism can't solve
them. What like? I think we spoke about this one cyberbullying, I think that's a really difficult
problem for capitalism to solve.
Because the incentives are aligned to get people to be online.
Yeah, that's a real difficult one.
And I think, therefore, you've got to maybe have some kind of
ex-price idea or something outside the box for that.
I have another one which is like the product marketing gap,
which is most people think they hate marketing, but they don't.
They just hate it when marketing is better than the product.
The secret or optimism? Exactly that.
And one thing I'd leave for the audience to recommend, I always recommend this.
My friend Julian Shapiro sent me out, which is this documentary,
Searching for Sugarman. You've still not seen it, have you?
Like Angus Meater, no, no, I'm sorry.
Watch that tonight. So Searching for Sugarman,
spoiler alert, is about a musician who was more talented than Bob Dylan. Everyone
who worked with him was like, this guy's incredible. He's going to be the next big thing and
he just disappeared. There's rumors that he set himself on fire. What happened to this guy?
And meanwhile, in South Africa, his music became a big thing during the apartheid. He was
bigger than LVS. He sold hundreds of thousands of records, and everyone in South Africa was like,
it was an icon, but everyone thought he died
or whatever, turns out, the guy was just a builder
on a building site for the rest of his life.
And it's only thanks to the internet beginning to start
that he realizes that he was the superstar in South Africa,
and I call it the Rodriguez effect, which is,
when you have a fucking incredible product,
people think this idea, oh, he just build it, they will come. If you have an incredible
product, but no, that's the important sometimes of marketing. If you don't actually market
someone who's in talent as him, you end up with somebody like Rodriguez, where they
have the most talent, I'll give you one of the most talented artists of his generation
who never truly took off. Apart from he had that little win in South Africa, but he never
took off elsewhere.
Tell me about Kanye West's market research.
Oh, it's my favorite one.
So this is what I call the Olsen Femometer.
So there's this going back to finding niche content on the internet.
There's this Diplo animation where Diplo is chatting about.
He gets called up to Kat by Kanye to work on it.
I'd argue probably one of his best albums, which is Watch the Throw in Him and Jay-Z.
And he goes in the studio, he's producing beats, and he looks over, and you're saying
you're your artist friend, that's like e-sigs everywhere, and there's things on the floor.
In Kanye's studio, there's just the Olsen twins, and Diplos out, why are Mary Kate and Ashley
here? Mary Kate and Ashley Olsen. And Kanye says, oh, they're my thermometer for what
white girls like music. So I just play
tunes and see what they like. And I go, obviously that's the most can you think everybody.
It's also genius, which is when you have, and when you're creating something for yourself,
it's really easy. But when you're creating something for different demographics, having
an awesome thermometer in the room is very, very useful.
The friendship recession, another one that's the...
Ignored by the media, we study by historians. Yeah, I think that the number of men who reported
having zero close friends in 1990 was 3% in 2020 was 15%. People are starting to talk about
it with young girls. There's this recent study that came out, I think, 60% of teenage girls
in America say
that they have persistent or constant feelings
of hopelessness.
Like, it's just the most brutal.
I would love to see the study
and actually break down what's going on.
Global millionaire migration, what's that?
Yeah, the US went from, I think,
10,000 millionaires, net migration to like 1500,
which is like an 85% drop, really quick.
And the UK is now a net loss whereas elsewhere
Australia the UAE
I think Canada is gone up. So that's definitely thing that just doesn't really get talked about like why is this happening again
Another one is Japan's homeless rate why just Japan have so few homeless people relative to the rest of the world
They might be lying with their statistics who knows?
So it's so low, it's insanely low. A lot of the reasons that when you actually
watch documentaries about it, is these gaming cafes, so that's one question to...
So they live in gaming cafes?
They live in gaming cafes.
So the people who would be homeless, like this kind of like a bed and a chair,
and they play games, which is obviously a terrible outcome,
but is it better than somebody sleeping on the streets?
Good question to post.
Another one that I think will become bigger with the next election cycle,
which you already take advantage of this, is something I call the
great social media merge. So I got this idea from Mr. Beast, which is every platform, for
the first time, every kind of, you have that unbundling, then bundling effect. Everything's
just merging on this kind of TikTokization of real shorts, but even Reddit, even Twitter's
now going on video. And you're going to see this Spotify. Spotify.
Amazon.
Back in the day, you needed to create something for LinkedIn
and then something for this.
And it meant actually going viral is so much harder.
Whereas now, it's actually never been easier to go viral
because the same clip, because every platform's bundling
together can go on mass viral.
And I don't think they priced in how quicker people
are going to get famous.
Yeah, that's looking at content strategy.
There's certainly different audiences that it resonates with.
So just because something that's 916 vertical,
we put stuff that reliably does well on Instagram
that falls flat on its ass on TikTok.
Animation videos reliably do well on Instagram.
Can't even get off the ground on YouTube, no one cares.
So there is, although the format of the platform, maybe the same, the physics that drive it are
different. But I wouldn't be surprised if over time those begin to merge more and more together.
Another thing on this specific topic is I have one point in the essay of Don't Ignore India.
I think India is possibly the most fascinating
country right now, which particularly is a British and American media doesn't really get focused
on that much. So Indians are now the number one population in the world. They're overtaking China
this year or last year. They export more in software engineering than Saudi Arabia does in oil.
So there's so much going on there. They're the number one users of every single social media platform. So number one users of WhatsApp, number one users of Facebook, number one users of Instagram,
number one users of YouTube, which means that if you're going to be creating things online,
they're going to be there. And also India, very mind, obviously, previously at the British Empire,
where India was a colony of Britain, has now flipped. So India's economy the other last year,
overtook the UK. And again, that's barely
discussed but 20 years from now, we're going to go, that was a bigger bend.
Yeah. An interesting insight that I learned from a couple of tech YouTube friends with massive
channels. When they do expensive like Apple devices, their RPM and their CPM per thousand
on ad sense on the back end of YouTube is very high. But if they do cheap Android devices, their RPM and their CPM per thousand on ad sense on the back end of YouTube is very high.
But if they do cheap Android devices, turns and turns of Indians watch it and that drives through
the floor. Android's huge there, yeah. Yeah. Also Ali Abdahl talks about Ali's from subcontinental
heritage and when he does book summaries, his book summaries are often listened to or watched by
his book summaries are often listened to or watched by people from India, but it drives his CPM through the floor. So he's like, he needs to balance revenue with...
But again, I think you're going to see, I know we spoke about it a long time ago, where
remote work was the best thing ever to happen to skilled people in the developing world.
And sure people.
Yeah, and, you know, I'll pin that one, and skillless people in the developing world and short people. Yeah, and you know, I'll pin that one and skilled us people in the developed world because all
the money is going to flow out and again, that will be something that will be spoke about
five years from now as all this money flows out to what, by the way, you cause the ascending
world and the descending world as a better model versus developed and developing world.
A teal to merit meritocracy.
It's the ultimate meritocracy, but what will happen is people will not like that because
you'll see all this money for it.
And then obviously the CPMs in India will get higher.
Well, also it's going to drive popular stoprisings more and more.
You know, if you, we need stronger borders, okay, please try and police your virtual borders
for a workforce.
Like, you've got this cohort of 7 million prime working aged men between the ages of
22 and 50 who are not working.
They're not in education, employment or training, needs.
They spend a few thousand hours on average per year playing video games.
50% of that time is either on prescription drugs or smoking weed from this 7 million man
cohort. from this 7 million man cohort, 7 million out of 330 million isn't much, but when you
look at capable men within that age bracket, it's actually a massive proportion, huge, huge
number. If those people aren't going to work, there is a vacuum that will be filled by
other workers from elsewhere.
And the other one on this is literally this point of what's neglected or what's ignored by the
media will be studied by historians is the bricks.
So if you combine the bricks, so like Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and I think
Korea, where he as well.
That's okay.
It's a sea, it's a sea for China.
Yeah, that's true actually.
But there are literally about to overtake the G7 in terms of economic size.
It's like the G7 in terms of economic size.
It's like the G7's going down, like down relative to global GDP and that's going like
that.
And again, these will be things that they will not talk about in the news that going
back to the Roman Empire point earlier.
Nobody says Roman Empire is for them.
It's the historians that say that.
So the historian frame is so much more useful.
But again, you can see going back to what I said earlier, there's the way I think, or
it's probably sometimes you end up
visualizing with things you'd better be discussed earlier, but there's a lot of root structures and
themes there of these gaps of taking the historians perspective both at the societal level and also at
the individual level. Yes, the future you are looking back. Exactly the same. I think my two,
my two certainly at the moment will be that population collapse. That's a big one.
I brought about that one.
That's a huge one.
Absolutely massive.
I keep hopping on about it.
It's an interesting, it's not even necessarily ignored by the media.
It's disincentivized to be spoken about by the media because it runs counter to a climate
change narrative that this is what we should be focused on. AI risk, I think, is still
now largely in the public scene as like a, you know, but I can get it to tell me the recipe or I can
get it to tell me five interesting stories about Winston Churchill. And yeah, you can, but I mean,
if the people that are concerned, if like Eliad Zayukowski's right, then there is no, there's going
to be no historians in the future to be able to worry about what happened in the past in
any case, so it doesn't really matter. It's going to be all paper clips. YouTube is the new TV.
Yeah, this is a crazy start. And one of my new favorite things when I see a viral YouTuber,
I go in the comment section and the amount of times will say, hey, X, I'm a 15-year-old and I love
your business content.
It's just flooded.
And if you actually see, you can find the image I post on Twitter
where YouTube now, it says something like 25% of kids say
they spend almost all their time
or such a significant proportion of their time on YouTube.
And you're then seeing this wall that play out
to the attention to an economy where you have centralized major studios, so Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney, all these, which is kind
of top down.
We pay billions for ideas, but the best directors in the world when we create that versus bottom
up, which is like YouTube.
Anyone can go viral.
It's completely decentralized and I wouldn't be surprised if YouTube ultimately, I think
they'll both win, but I think YouTube will eat more and more of the attention market.
I'm pretty sure that the amount of time spent on TikTok last year versus Netflix, Netflix,
watch time.
Let's see.
I did not mean that.
Watch time.
Inside your intelligence predicts that users over the age of 18
will spend an average of 58 minutes per day on TikTok
this year compared with 48.7 minutes for YouTube.
Oh, Netflix still within the leader at 62 minutes.
So it's like 58 minutes a day on TikTok,
48 minutes a day on YouTube,
62 minutes a day on Netflix.
That's for people over the age of 18, right?
So under the age of 18 is probably gonna be pivoted a lot. That's like, that's for people over the age of 18, right? So under the age of 18 is probably going to be pivoted a lot.
That's like, that's three hours of your day.
Here's an interesting one, right?
The number of hours that people have in the day hasn't changed, but the number of the
amount of time that people spend on online platforms has, that time has to be squeezed
from somewhere.
You don't just get to create this time from nothing.
So when people talk about,
you know, what have been the massive changes, why is the discourse is this way in the mental health
and all of the rest of the stuff, look at it as a hardware problem as opposed to a software problem.
Is it the globalist conspiracy? Is it the Eastrigeons in the water and the stuff? It might
contribute to it a little bit. Maybe it's the fact that 25 years ago,
the total amount of screen time that people spent
was probably on average like two hours or one hour a day,
and now it's including work,
it's probably closer to 10.
So let's go back to the beginning of the conversation,
optimism agency, right?
So if you look at when the smartphone first launched,
it was magic pocket computer.
Wow, how incredible this is that I get this fucking thing that sits in my pocket and I can reach anybody, do anything.
I can watch Richard Feynman lectures whenever I want. I can go on Stanford University, I can chat to somebody in India, just sat here right now.
That is fucking incredible. Ten years later, brain killing device.
What's gone wrong? We've gone all the way from the optimism, high agency, all the way down to pessimism, low agency. And the number one, which I never thought
would be my most popular essay in terms of when I meet people that they want to talk about,
going back to the third door, like, what is the thing that no one's discussing? Is I call
it the smartphone paradox. So right now there's two things people are presented with smartphones,
either one, be a phone addict who's addicted to it 12 hours a day, every single day refreshing it,
and yeah you get the upsides of constant optionality and things like that,
but you're stuck to your phone all day, or you've got the phoneless lullaby who leaves his phone at home,
or leaves a phone at home which is great, but you can't get an Uber anywhere.
If you've got an idea, you can't use your notes. If your mum's ill, you don't find out until four weeks later.
And so I have the two version, means
like the phoneless lardite and then the phone addict,
which is the two options that have been presented
by society right now.
And then I was like, OK, well, where's the
wheel suitcase right now?
And I came up with the cocaine phone and the kale phone.
So this is my cocaine phone here, this is
my kale phone here. And rather than have a phone you addicted to or no phone that you
addicted to, what about this? So on the kale phone, essentially, is all the positive,
optimistic apps, notes, Google Maps, utilitarian, Uber, Audible, Kindle. And it's sometimes
so boring, I just can't even be asked checking it. And if anybody wants to get in touch,
I've got like a few emergency contacts
that have this number, so I still have,
if anything kicks off, I've still got that.
And then on my cocaine phone, it's wild.
TikTok, Instagram, everything on there.
And what's really interesting about this is,
when I spend all my time on my Kale phone,
so I usually watch out my cocaine phone
to like one or two PM in the afternoon,
it completely resets my baseline.
So then when I use the cocaine one,
I'm bored of it, right?
And that is too much, I have to buy an hour,
and I wanna go back.
And that single piece alone,
I get people writing to me weekly,
saying this thing's like completely changed it.
So I call that the smartphone paradox,
and it goes back to, well, you can kind of go,
oh, well, Apple, when are they gonna fix this this or it takes off evil? It's like, or you can,
you can take it into your own hands and design some wheels.
Kind of suitcase. The bottom line is that you need to take control of your own technology.
I would go as far as to say that like my relationship with technology has probably been the most
consistent challenge that I've had to fight with over the last decade, right? It's something every
single year when I look at my annual review that no matter how disciplined that being, I
always want to be more disciplined. And I always see it as a challenge. I was think, I could
have would have showed it and met him with that. But I'm cocaine, kale, and then a third
one as well, right? Like I've got three. And yeah, cat, cat, me and phone. I've been rolling
with that for a long time.
And that's been a big,
do not have social media on the main phone.
It's the most,
and the beauty of that is you get the upsides of,
you get the upsides of having the phone,
all the craziness of social media
finding like random stories,
what we're chatting about earlier,
but all the upsides of having peace of mind
and being able to detach and mindfulness,
I think,
all the bull in podcasts.
Yeah, podcasts, notes, everything you can think of, being able to detach and mindfulness. I think- Audible in podcasts. Yeah.
Podcast notes, everything you can think of, being able to get an Uber somewhere, all
the basics, and again, society presents these two extremes that you render a spectrum,
but there's always a third door that exists.
The scale of farmer marketing.
Yeah, that's a big one.
Again, going back to someone who fucking loves advertising, loves collecting the best ads of all time, only US and New Zealand are allowed to run pharmaceutical advertising. I can't quote the exact one, so I
think it's MSNBC, two of a big news networks in the US, their biggest advertisers are pharmaceutical
companies. But it goes back to my point earlier, which is, okay, that's true, that's the thing
that exists, should that exist, that's open for debate, that's an open question. But where
are the iconic exercise campaigns?
If we know that it can have a fucking 500% increase taken somebody from the bottom 25% of exercise to the top 2%,
where are those campaigns and why aren't the government investing in them?
I put out a thing of if any government wants to reverse DM me and I'll help.
Well speaking of the M's, yeah.
So speaking about government investment, you've got the great technical act.
Yeah, so this is one of my favorite ones, which is talk about ignored by the media,
studied by historians. The UK government posted a job role for the head of cybersecurity for the UK
government, and the proposed salary was 55,000 pounds, which again, for a lot of people, there's a lot of money. Don't get me wrong.
But for the head of cybersecurity, how is that? How? How is that possible?
But when you think about your job is in cybersecurity and the number one flaw that all cyber systems
have is the human element. Every single hacker fundamentally is a human hacker first,
not a computer hacker.
Almost to everybody, I think it's called soft hacking
or something like that,
where they're trying to look for the human element in.
If this guy is, or girl, is getting 57,000 pounds per year,
like how many Bitcoin do you think that a rogue nation has
to be able to bribe that person?
There's your vector of attack.
Yeah.
And two things I've been really focused on the last kind of toward 24 months is traveling
and studying different cultures because you ain't got, oh, why is Japan have so few homeless people?
Or how can you case doing this?
But meanwhile in Singapore, they pay the average politicians something like $750,000
and they have KPIs based off how well the country's performing.
So study different cultures, travel a lot, and you begin to see those gaps as well as when you study history.
You begin to go, you begin to take a historian's frame to the present moment.
How incredible modern aviation is. This is the wildest one.
And every time I get on an airplane, even when I flew here, I always say to myself, I go, and this is even a gratitude hack, I go, I'm going to die today.
I go, I take what's we taking off, especially because I run about how modern aviation is.
I go, it'd be the most ironic death for the pro-modern aviation guy.
Elon Musk says that of the most entertaining outcome will happen, of the guy that runs
about how amazing aviation is will die on a flight.
So here's two stats, I think it's 2021. The number of deaths on
the airline in 2021 was around about 120 to 180 depending on the statistics you look at.
The number of car deaths was around about 1.1 million. And think about how much more dangerous
an airplane taking off is. And that is completely neglected.
I think probably because it's a positive story and we don't want to focus on it, or we just take it
for granted, the same way we take the sewage system for granted, the same way we take electricity
system for granted, all these great ideas we take for granted, and then we focus on all the nonsense
with the opportunity costs that we have is humongous, that we don't think about how wonderful modern
aviation is.
Well, we have this threat detection system, right?
And we also have a smoke detector principle, which is it is far better for us to assume
that something bad is going to go wrong and it not happen than us assume that something
is going to go well and that not occur.
Like, there is a bush that shakes over the far side.
I can either be scared because it might be aligned and run away and it might be aligned
or it might not, but the cost of me running away is relatively low.
The cost of me being eaten is very high.
So we always have this negativity bias.
It's inbuilt into us.
It is your job to swim upstream against that.
And that's like that, I think, very, very important to remind you.
Like, what's the chance of you dying in the car on route to the airport?
That's the most dangerous thing about a flight is the drive to the airport.
Well, I remember it's in Matthew Walker's book where he talks about how the number of
doctors that have done, I think it's surgeons, the number of doctors are surgeons that have
worked 12 hour shifts in a hospital that upon their drive home crash and then get taken back to their
own hospital to be worked on because of how sleep deprived they are.
Wow.
I think there's a book called Black Box Thinking, which I recommend, which studies the
aviation industry where they compare, well, why are airline deaths going down so much?
Meanwhile, get hospital deaths are going up so much and he has a few interesting hypotheses
about cultural things and with a black box, they literally observe once a plane crashes,
what happens, it records it. And because often the people are dead, there's no ego involved
so they can objectively assess it. But the lessons from the aviation industry should be applied
everywhere. And this ties into the next point, which is what happened to ticker tape parades.
At ticker tape parades, Peter Till has this great point
where there used to be huge.
People would go out in the street and applaud JFK,
applaud these great individuals.
And they, which started off in the 1910s,
became super popular all the way up to the 1970s
and then just slowly fade away.
The last iconic individual really was Nelson Mandela
in 1990 in New York.
After that is a few sports teams,
not individuals, collectives, a few that is a few sports teams, not individuals,
collectives, a few nurses and a few things like that. But what happens to that? My thesis
is he's like, where's the ticker-take parade for the right brothers or where's the day off
for the right brothers because it's talking how you think about how talk about high agency
individuals? Well, no one can agree on any cultural
heroes anymore. There is nobody. They're from the right brothers or up for debate.
But new ones.
Like, you're not going to throw a ticket tape parade for the right brothers now.
I try.
You know, trying to think of who do you think is the most unobjectionable person?
Maybe the rock.
He probably doesn't do badly.
And he even, then he probably scores like 51 to 49 in the polls.
I mean, he did put his foot in it to do with, I think,
maybe it was a race thing and maybe it was a trans thing a few years ago.
So yeah, when the overt and window has become so highly constrained
and when concept creepers occur to the point where everybody will
find something that they can justifiably be insulted by, there are landmines everywhere
for somebody to step on.
And there's a question I have for you that I was thinking about on the way down.
We're talking about history a lot here and studying history has given me such a fantastic
frame about these things. Why is it, so music is a specific thing where people consume a lot of music from the past even
to this day, like on the way down, I love Christopher Cross ride like the wind on my favorite songs
from multiple decades ago. You think of ACDC, Michael Jackson, all these amazing artists that
still relevant today and people still consume the music today versus with social media, people, David Proler has that concept of the never ending now,
people only consume content in the last 24 hours.
When you, probably most people listening to that, listening to this still apply this.
But imagine if you applied that to music where all you could listen to was the island boys.
Like the music that's been made to the literary today, it'd be terrible, but why do we do that
for information consumption?
I've not quite figured that out yet.
Yeah, that's an interesting question. I think what we go to for music and what we go to
for the other types of content that we consume are very different things. We go to music
for a vibe to put ourselves into a particular kind of emotional state a lot of the time. Music seems to be a lot more
Lindy because there are universal laws. No one's going about, I always say this about
Shapiro's channel. You know, Ben's got a rapidly growing channel and he's been very, very successful
on YouTube and in podcasting and all the rest of it. No one's going back and listening
to Ben Shapiro's mid-2020 podcast episodes, because they're inherently
about relevant. Yes, they're about the last 24 hours.
But there's so much in history that is relevant or so much amazing content out there that
is relevant. So, on the parallel he has this other concept of the paradox of abundance,
where right now you've never seen more people in the obesity levels are off the charts,
another thing are probably ignored by the media, it's still be by levels are off the charts. Another thing are probably ignored by the media is to be by historians off the charts, but also the number of Greek people that like Greek
gods is also off the charts. You have this weird, an evil barbell, an evil extremes, and I think
the exact true of information consumption. I posted this thing the other day of the paradox of
abundance of YouTube. You can go back to the smartphone paradox as well. You can use YouTube to search
Richard Feynman Lecture Charlie Munger, the history of World War II,
how did Winston Churchill prepare his speeches, or you can search,
World Star Hip-Hop Fights, or the Island Boys, and that paradox of abundance exists.
There's this really cool quote, another goender one here that says,
the combination of the digital age constantly exposing us to new outrageous and cultural elites, cool quote another goender one here that says, We will end the sleep be distracted from our goals and easily controlled by emotional manipulators like trolls disinformation agents and
Demagogues I block the easily outraged because they're the foot soldiers of the mob who in the old days would have lynched people over
Navahood rumours those without self control a scene controlled by others those without self control as soon controlled by others
They're the useful idiots of ideologues the tools of tyranny
So with that I think you just show that everybody has a thing that they can find, which
is reprehensible, that the person that they're looking at has done, which is why the ticker
tape parade thing has stopped.
Who can everybody agree on as being a hero?
And if you don't have any cultural icons that you can hold up, it's very difficult to rally
around. Like if you tried to hold a ticketate parade for pretty much anybody, there would
be an equally sized anti-parade for the same thing, which is fucking insane. And also I guess
goes back to the pessimism bias. Most people die at 25 and aren't buried until they're 75.
Why? This references what we were chatting about earlier, where at 25, zero to 25 before that
is a beautiful design video game. It's like grade one, grade two, grade three, grade four,
grade five, or year one, year two, year three, year four, year five, if you're English.
And you kind of progress up like a beautiful milestone every single year through high school, through college, and you, all of a sudden,
at 25, those milestones just become marriage, which is obviously, might be on the decline,
mortgage, funerals of loved ones, kids, kids, and then your own funeral. So I'd be, the
amount of mile, you go from like a milestone so regularly to almost nonexistent.
And big thing I have of reasons why I think it happens
is one lack of milestones.
Institutionalization.
Institutionalization because people go
from the education system where they kind of sat there
all day, 18 years, asking to go to the toilet.
And then they just go and fuck them thrown out
in the wild like a prisoner.
And as a result, people really struggle to adapt to that.
I also think people just don't really care about adults.
I think it's quite sad.
I think support groups.
They haven't got any support groups.
So the time spent with family, time spent with friends,
even co-workers ultimately goes down towards the end.
So you factor in all those things.
Plus that parenting switch thing.
Yeah, so there's the parenting switch as well,
which is you go from having your caregivers there,
your entire life support and you support and you supporting you.
And again, going back to milestones,
all of a sudden, then one day you get a phone call
and you're there caregiver, or they're not even here.
So it just immediately switches on you.
And all those things begin to stack up. Which is super depressing, super like pessimistic, which maybe we end on that night,
like super nihilistic and but no actually the optimistic answer I wrote about which is a few
solutions for that which is one great regular milestones. So I'll try and split the year into quarters
now, which is enough time to sprint at things, but also then have a week off completely reflect
and then rebuild the plan. So then you have like four milestones per year, two, try and schedule things in with friends,
regularly, family, regularly. You can use your Google Calendar for like weekly meetings with
people at work, you can use it for friends, you can use it for family as well.
Three, I think we also have a lack of religion in current society and we've kind of thrown
the baby out with a bathwater, a lot of atheists look down on it but those regular rituals are thing bigger than you that
you're working on so important to have so try and take Sabbaths fasting things like that you can
take quite a lot from religion and all of a sudden you can then begin to not die at 25 which I think
is a huge huge problem it's a silent problem as well. George Mack, ladies and gentlemen, dudes, I love you.
I'm really, really glad that you came to see me in Austin.
What should people do if they want to check out
more of your writing?
You're one of the quickest growing guys on Twitter
at the moment.
Where should they go?
Yeah, a few things.
So I put together all the best ideas and resources
I found at George-mac.com.
So you can just get that there completely for free.
And I kind of updated with time. And then I'll send a week and use that related to that.
You can also just literally go to George-DashMac at Twitter, and then there's also a load of
great ads which is kind of under right now the current URLs marketingplug.com, but that
will change, but you'll still be relevant when people hear this.
Before we go though, one thing I'd like to say, just to break the
fourth wall for the audience, me and you were sat on a beach a few years ago now. And you
remember what you said to me, you said, yeah, if I can get to 100,000 subscribers, did
it, did it, and hopefully now we'll be at the million mark. And the big thing I've learned
is a Brit touring America, there's a lot we can take from Americans and vice versa.
They are super complimentary to their friends, which we are often quite, like mocking of each to the top doing it together.