Modern Wisdom - #797 - Mike Solana - TikTok Ban, Media War & The Corruption Of College
Episode Date: June 15, 2024Mike Solana is a writer, Vice President at Founders Fund, Editor-in-Chief at Pirate Wires and a podcaster. To no one’s surprise, the future of American media and politics is upside down. A pervasive... lack of trust leaves everyone uncertain about the rest of the year. So what does the future have in store, and what facts can we be certain about in a time of turmoil and confusion? Expect to learn why the new app Fly Me Out is a fantastic inditement of modern dating culture, why the tide is turning against independent and mainstream media, whether the left vs right debate is officially dead, what the future of news and media will look like, whether American colleges are really a lost cause, how taboo subjects affect science and censorship in academia, Mike’s prediction for the first Trump vs. Biden debate and much more... Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get up to 20% discount on the best supplements from Momentous at https://livemomentous.com/modernwisdom (automatically applied at checkout) Get a Free Sample Pack of all LMNT Flavours with your first box at https://www.drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom (automatically applied at checkout) Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: http://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: http://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: http://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
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What's happening people? Welcome back to the show.
My guest today is Mike Solana.
He's a writer, vice president at Founders Fund,
editor in chief at PirateWires and a podcaster.
To no one's surprise, the future of American media and politics is upside down.
A pervasive lack of trust leaves everyone uncertain about the rest of the year.
So what does the future have in store?
And what facts can we be certain about in a time of turmoil and confusion?
Expect to learn why the new app Fly Me Out is a fantastic indictment of modern dating culture
Why the tide is turning against independent and mainstream media whether the left versus right debate is officially dead
What the future of news and media will look like, whether American colleges are really
a lost cause, how taboo subjects affect science and censorship in academia, Mike's prediction
for the first Trump vs Biden debate and much more.
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That's chriswillx.com slash books.
But now, ladies and gentlemen, please welcome Mike Solana.
Fly Me Out, a new invitation only social travel club app where hot chicks can sign up for
trips with rich guys.
Go ahead, read between the lines.
Recently launched, sparking negative reactions on social media while concerns about trafficking
are understandable.
The anti-prostitution outrage feels a little precious.
Are we really pretending guys haven't been using Instagram for precisely this purpose
for years?
Hordache just makes it a little more explicit, which is, by the way, why the app will probably
fail. So relax. If we're clutching pearls, let's talk about the CCP using TikTok to keep a database
of our fingerprints or incels permanently connecting to their VR headsets, auto blow 3000 combo while
the birth rate plummets. Uber meets is at least improving the fuck rate, said Riley Nork for PirateWire's
three mornings takes this morning.
Yeah, I'm gonna be, I worked with him on that one.
This started from a tweet of mine.
So I feel confident talking about this subject.
I didn't know we were talking about this today,
but I am happy to talk about this today.
Where do we begin with that?
You tell me too, this is your story.
First of all, you guys should subscribe
to the PirateWire's daily and get our three takes.
Yes, you should.
I read it every morning.
I read it every morning.
Thank you very much.
I do think, I think that the, so you have this app.
It's not actually called the Hordache, it's called,
well, you said it. It's right.
It's fly me out.
So, I mean, you have this app that is designed
to connect young, hot women with rich,
probably not so hot guys on yachts and whatnot.
And people freak out because why?
It's the explicit, this is a transactional thing of it all.
But I started noticing, I mean, years ago on Instagram, people with 10,000,
20,000 followers on Instagram, all like clockwork, you hit that number, maybe
two times that number, and suddenly for some reason you want to go to Dubai.
A lot of time in middle East. It's you, you see these pictures you want to go to Dubai. Um, a lot of time in middle East.
It's you see these pictures.
I'm going to Dubai.
I'm going to this other random oil rich country with where there's
like lots of oil royalty and I'm flying first class somehow.
How are you doing that with 20,000 Instagram followers?
It doesn't pay you any money.
No job, no, no obvious sign of employment.
This is how it, this is how the world works.
sign of employment. This is how it, this is how the world works. Instagram is like a yellow pages for hot people
who are for sale. I don't think all of them are like this. I don't want to say that's
true of everybody, but I mean, you slide into someone's DMS and you offer them a yacht.
Like that is sort of how the world works online. And it's maybe how it's always worked for
young hot people. I don't know, Hollywood seems
like that kind of a vibe in general. But I think that what people freaked out about here is, is the
explicit nature of it. It's by saying it out loud, by making it more obvious people don't like that.
Everyone, it's, everyone's sort of, I can't believe that people are so stupid as they don't know this
is happening, but, but if they are okay, fine, different class of person, I think the average person sort of sees those Dubai trips and is like, what's going on there? But as they don't know this is happening. But, but if they are okay, fine, different class of person,
I think the average person sort of sees those to buy trips and is like,
what's going on there? But then they don't think too much about it because there's this polite
lie we tell about it.
Anyway, you know, it's fun.
That one may be fun.
Why is, why is calling it out?
Why is being explicit about something that most people probably had an
idea was happening, why is that causing uproar?
I don't know.
It's, I mean, this is always the case of everything, right?
Isn't this just what the nature of being polite is?
It's this, we tell each other these polite lies in social situations to
make everybody feel comfortable.
And, um, I don't know, there are whole like novels written about this.
Jane Austin has been writing, she's maybe she written about, Jane Austen has been writing,
maybe she writes about this better than anybody else at all,
just talking about sort of the rules of polite society
and what exists behind those rules.
It will always exist.
This is just something that happens to be really contentious
in our culture.
I also think there's something happening,
separate from all that.
If you're super online, you've probably noticed there's this rising,
trad right-wing thing, which is super anti, it's a maybe like classically,
socially conservative. And I think we just haven't seen that kind of a real
forceful, conservative,
socially conservative right-wing thing, you know, in a while, at least since I was
in college, I think it's definitely more popular now than ever. I don't know how
popular it is outside of the internet. We'll find out probably soon.
It's like a meme movement, purpose-built to counteract other meme
movements that kind of only really exist on the internet?
Yeah. Yes. Yeah. It's like, I mean, the internet is a world of like based Greek statues fighting
sort of genderqueer they them anime fairies. And they both come with their own philosophies.
And I mean, I've taken this stuff very seriously for a very long time. And I think that I'm probably I'm at
least a little bit right about that. The question is, how right
am I about that? It seems like those things, those groups of
people and these this ideological warfare that sort of
visualized online in that way does have an impact on politics.
It's a little bit downstream of that at least. So you see that I think a lot with the almost
meme-like framing of DeSantis
as he signed the anti-lab-grown meat bill.
It felt very trad, right-wing, Twitter-adjacent,
even though there's all sorts of real obvious
sort of boring political reasons for that,
including just the money that lobbyists spend on campaigns, especially in Florida and how much impact agriculture has on the US politics.
Can you explain what that framing was for the people who aren't sufficiently hot people?
You have just huge Jack dudes and gorgeous bombshell blondes, like fitness influencer
looking people before a table of real meat splayed out at the
butcher in DeSantis like signing this bill or he might have been I think he was inspecting the meat
as he announced the signing of the anti-lapgroat meat bill in Florida. So you can't, I believe you
can't, I know you can't work on it there. I think you can't buy it either. I'm not sure if you can
bring it there. You definitely, it's a super, it's the most
aggressive anti-laboral meat bill that exists, which has a lot to do with the fact that you just
can't get it yet. It's a sort of abstract conversation we're having. But he, he, he couched
it in memes and memetic. I don't want to call it language because it's visual, but it's visual
language. It's like, it's like memetic visual language is how he got that point across.
Or maybe how he tried to get support for what he was doing, but this stuff
does, you know, long story short, this stuff, what happens on the internet does
matter at least a little bit.
Yeah.
Well, there's that dark Brandon moment, right?
Where they tried to get Biden to meme.
And the reason that I thought, I thought that was to be honest, actually pretty funny.
Dark, dark random is a good meme.
It's like a shockingly good meme.
It's a really fucking, yeah.
It's the UNO reverse card of, of, of the left.
I think the problem was that it's kind of a little bit like hearing your mom do a gay
joke.
Oh yeah.
I mean, the part, the background is like is like you know that Biden has never actually seen the
meme and if he or if he has he doesn't understand it like he's not the one memeing he can't even
string a sentence together I don't even know that he's been online in probably years I mean
since he does he check his email I don't know how it works for works for him, but he has handlers who know at least a little bit
about memes, so they were able to sort of get that one
out there.
Whereas Trump, I mean, you're up against someone like Trump.
Trump, Trump understands memes.
Trump's online.
He's, you know that Trump is tweeting himself.
No one was tweeting for him.
He understands the internet.
He understands crowds.
And so any sort of memetic war with him
is gonna be hard to win.
He's very good.
He's just like, I mean, he's the, the God troll of the internet.
The heavyweight champion of meme war.
How do you sort of conceptualize the broad armies of, of sort of discussion
and pockets of, of memetic warfare on the internet now.
And like, where do you fall within this?
Like, what are you as well as a part of this?
And it's so complicated now.
And I've, I'm having a hard time recently, not a hard time.
I think I'm in a process now of.
Recalibrating my sense of what's going on because the internet has changed so
quickly over the last year and a half, two years.
Um,
take me through that.
Explain to me how you sort of conceptualize this, this last sort of
well, the vibe shift has been coming for a while and I've written about it.
I wrote about it.
I think, gosh, it might've been like a year and a half, two years ago.
Um, it, it, we've, we've been on this train for quite a bit.
It was post COVID, a lot of the lies we were forced
to believe or at least parrot online became so incredible
that the whole order that was sort of propping them up
when we're talking about lies about COVID,
lies about gender, lies about, honestly, I think,
and this one's gonna be more controversial,
but I look at something like January 6th,
and it's like, that wasn't a coup.
So what are we actually talking about here?
Like no one really believes it was a coup,
not even the New York Times believe,
they won't use that word coup.
Who's using the word coup?
Not them, for a reason, because it's like if...
Whatever that narrative was,
that was constructed of all of these different things became impossible
to defend.
And at that point, once it became impossible to defend, you started seeing a lot of dissent
across the board in all sorts of different places, places where I agree, places where
I don't, but it was sort of a mass disagreement.
In fact, disagreeing with that consensus became popular and has
rewards associated with it on social media.
Okay.
There are way more influencers who are opposed to this stuff now who are doing
well than there are people who are for that, whatever the state narrative is.
That's, that feels like it's just over, you know, you have the remnants on
both sides of the fence, as opposed to previously, you would have basically had someone who would have been cynical or disagreed if it was against
that particular perspective, but now more people on both sides.
Is that your belief?
Just a few years ago, you had a mainstream sort of state narrative about everything in your life.
And that was defended ferociously by a handful, not a handful, a sort of army of media,
both institutions and influencers
who worked for those institutions
who were artificially amplified by social media platforms.
Their voices were actually artificially put on blast.
They both disseminated a story that was the correct story
and they ruthlessly attacked anybody who stepped outside
of it. And so it was a very dark time to be someone who had weird ideas. It was like no
real way to do it without getting sort of massive massive blowback, probably losing
your job if you didn't work for Peter Tee like I did. It was not good. The story became
so absolutely clownish and so unpopular that it began to fall apart.
And that's around the time that Elon bought Twitter.
And so everything just, there was no more political censorship.
All of the artificial amplification ended.
The Overton window of acceptable speech completely broadened.
And once that happened, the old world of the influencers
who maintain the narrative,
and then all of the people just below them
who would sort of wink at the truth,
try and edge around the truth,
try and meme in interesting ways,
that was a pressure that really, I think,
forced creativity among dissenters.
All of that ended.
And so now what you have are people really just being honest
and saying sort of a range of things that are either interesting or crazy. And I don't know that it tracks so
easily to groups anymore. There used to be sort of the Wokes and the antis, the people who sort
of oppose the woke framework and the woke orthodoxy and this culture of silence. I no longer believe
that culture of silence exists in the way that it did. I think it still exists
to some extent, this infection of institutions still exists. You still have different universities
and things where you're forced to speak to DEI mandates and things like these, sort of affirmative,
you're expected to affirm the orthodoxy of these regressive racial sort of quotas
and things like this, but who has been attacked
for criticizing that lately,
like really trying to think about that.
Nothing but awards.
And that says to me that culture is changing rapidly.
And then in terms of the camps now,
I think it's really not clear.
I think it's easy to, and I think a lot of people on the right,
especially really want to believe that that old machine
still exists because it was such a fun fight
because it was like a righteous fighter.
Well, the anti-woke thing.
Yeah, it was a righteous fight.
You were fighting what felt and what was really,
what really constituted power
and a really unjust abuse of power over speech.
I just don't think that's there anymore.
And so people are having to do the uncomfortable thing of ask themselves,
you know, what do I actually believe in?
What do I want?
And there's way more disagreement on those questions than there was agreement
on the question of whether or not the woke thing was good and it wasn't.
So, it's just confusion now, I said.
Isn't it interesting this, like the allure of being a righteous revolutionary speaking truth to power.
You know, it's there's so much nobility associated with that.
You just draped in glory.
If you've like, you push back against something that you know, and most people
kind of do, and you know that the people that are pushing it also kind of don't
believe in it and you know, sort of low key on the side by the water cooler, everyone kind of has your back
a little bit. It has all of the appearance of being a brave flame wielding martyr with
none of the real risk, especially if, especially if you're like a fun employed, fucking like degenerate self-employed writer type person.
Uh, and now that that hegemony isn't perceived in the same way.
You're like, what am I fighting against?
I wonder whether this, I wonder whether downstream from this, the, you know,
places like maybe the blaze or daily wire or whatever, I wonder how they're positionally gonna sort
of maneuver themselves around.
I think it's bad news for them.
The daily wire was the first place that I noticed this.
I started, I was watching these endless Matt Walsh and Candice Owens clips
where, and this was a while, like a year and a half ago or something, um, maybe two years ago, there is just every day it was another woke whack a mole story where they find some idiot
online saying something that was crazy, you know, and they looked, they, they looked crazy.
They were saying crazy things.
They wanted something crazy.
Um, but they just didn't really matter.
It didn't feel like that mattered anymore because culture had already changed so much.
And I thought, man, what are they doing here? And I realized, oh, they have to do this. This is what their audience wants. This is the audience they built. It's all their audience knows. It's the thing that the audience expects from them, and it's the only thing the audience will tolerate from them, because they haven't actually, at at that institution shared a really coherent sense of what they wanted because many of them disagreed,
as we now see with the exit of Candice, right? There's strong disagreement over there about
what they actually are. Again, agreement on what they don't like, but what are they? What is the
America that they want? That's not clear. And those places are going to have a really hard time.
I think turning that ship into a new direction.
Um, and this seems to be a problem.
The right wing has had in politics for a really long time because, uh, it's always,
it's almost designed to be losing.
It's like, Oh, it's been losing our whole life.
It's lost.
How'd you mean? I mean, the country has just shifted left every year a little bit more and more,
and the left has sort of swallowed culture, every cultural institution. And so when you
have these media upstarts that have a different voice, it's automatically a reaction against mainstream culture and your existence is only
ever positioned in opposition to whatever that orthodoxy, which is necessary.
Um, but then once you and the few dissidents left sort of running their mouths, when in
any way whatsoever.
And like right now I would classify this as,
I wouldn't say it's a victory,
but there have been a series of great victories,
like small victories against cultural hegemony.
So you have this space where someone probably could forward
an interesting, compelling counter idea,
not just a critique of the
power structure, but, um, an alternative and people are listening, but the sort of
critics don't know what that is.
Um, I think a lot of them have never even talked about it.
A lot of defense being played permanent defense.
It's also a lot of people who have maybe never even thought of these things.
You know, I probably, most people have never thought of these things who are popular online. These are influencers
who have chased an algorithm for years. They got a lot of attention for a certain kind of thing and
they're still doing it. I think about the Dylan Mulvaney stuff a lot, which was crazy. I mean,
I wrote about this when the Budweiser thing happened and the repercussions of that. It was
very interesting, but is Dylan Mulvaney like really a threat?
Are we still talking about Dylan Mulvaney?
Like how long does, did that have to happen?
It's, it's like you do it because that is what's being rewarded online.
Um, for, for this kind of person.
It's incentives all the way down.
I had this, uh, idea that this kind of relates to, I want to teach you about it.
So I came up with this idea called
the culture wars shiny object cycle.
And it's a six stage process that pretty much every news story
goes through, I think.
So number one, some woke news story hits the press.
Cats suffer from racial discrimination
or screwing in light bulbs needs to be recognized
as a valid sexual kink or something.
Number two, the right-wing antibody response activates.
Look at how insane these people are.
Matt Walsh quote tweets the article and calls it obnoxious.
This is the problem with our convenient decadent TikTok society.
Number three, this reaction causes the story to gain infinitely more traction than it ever would have done
by signal boosting the original fringe scenario into a much bigger event.
Number four, the left- scenario into a much bigger event.
Number four, the left-wing counter-response activates.
Right-wingers lose their minds over one woman with a particularly dark cat.
The Daily Wire has a meltdown over an insignificant troll article.
In times where the original story is less insane, this includes a defense of the original
article too.
Cats actually can experience trauma.
Minimizing this is the real problem.
Number five, the right-wing re-reaction kicks into gear.
Apparently I'm insane for pushing back against cat trauma.
See, this is the problem.
If we don't stand our ground,
these blue-haired idiots will take over the country.
And number six, finally,
the touch grass meta-reactionary steam in.
The real issue is people talking about this issue.
Look at how silly this whole thing is.
It's time to check out of the culture war.
We should reconnect with what really matters.
You should move onto the ranch next to Ryan holiday and have a fence post
into the ground for the rest of time.
Yeah.
I mean, they're all like, that is true and funny.
And I've also been each one of those six, by the way, like I've
appeared to also say, there's a reason.
I think the original cat story does actually matter.
It's written for a reason, right?
This is a person who is creating a narrative
about what culture is.
The reason that you have a visceral reaction against it
would be your recognition that this is not just
one one-off thing.
It represents something about what our culture is.
And in there, you usually are correct, right?
These crazy gender stories we saw for years
have resulted in a skyrocketing number of young kids
who think that they're a different gender.
And what does that mean for our society?
It's clearly not, you know what, this is a whole,
that'll take us, we can talk about gender for a long time.
I don't want to necessarily get in the weeds on that.
I just do think that the stories we consume
have an impact on how.
I don't disagree.
The reason I called it the shiny object cycle
is that what I was particularly interested in is why,
given the fact that it pretty reliably follows
the same six steps each time
Why do we continue to be captured by stories that are formulaic and a layout that's formulaic and it's because my belief is
That each time that the story comes along
It's just sprinkled with sufficient novelty to make it seem to us like it's something new. That was the shiny part of it
for instance, it's something new. That was the shiny part of it. For instance, it's, um, LGBT month in soon.
And there will be some addition to the flag.
There will be something that's added on it's people
with a gluten intolerance or hearing deficiency
or Crohn's disease or something.
And that will be, well, we haven't seen this flag before.
And it legitimates the pushback because people think, well, this is new.
This is more ground is being seceded to the crazy woke idiots.
Yeah.
I mean, a lot of it is just the sense that it's the amount of, it's hard because I wasn't around before the internet,
right? So I don't know how I've remembered. I mean, I was around, I was alive, but I don't
really remember how the media cycles shaped and how long they would last. And ours today are rapid
and how long they would last. And ours today are rapid and anyone can get involved.
So people with relatively little power,
maybe no attention or friends,
no matter what their politics are, left or right,
feel empowered to say crazy shit
and get attention online for that crazy shit.
And I wonder often how much of this is driven really by that.
Just people who want someone to see them.
And so they're actually saying this really crazy shit for that reason.
People who just needed more hugs when they were a kid.
I mean, everyone needs hugs and I'm pro I think that's something that we can
all get on board with more, more hugs.
Yeah. You launched it to offer that instead of all get on board with more, more hugs. Yeah.
You should offer that instead of, I don't know, cash checks for shitposting.
Like we'll just, we'll give you some physical attention, some love, but
when you start the fucking shitposting thing, like not, you know, pose.
Law has become so POE.
Uh, I have no idea. At least 50% of the things that I read law has become so Poey. I have no idea.
At least 50% of the things that I read on Twitter,
I'm like, I have no idea if this is meant
to be an earnest post or if I should just disregard it.
Yeah, all of the anonymous people feel like this to me,
where it's not really clear what they believe
and, or if it's just these sort of wild performance art.
And then-
Interpretive dance of Twitter. Um, and then
dance of Twitter.
Yeah. The other thing when you're dealing with the non-C people, it's like, are
they even adults, how many teenagers am I fighting with online?
I never know the answer to that question.
Uh, but it would answer a lot of other questions I have about
the quality of thinking.
What?
Okay.
So we've got this sort of odd transition where the more mental progressive
woke orthodoxy type thing is maybe being pushed back against in quite an effective way over
the last two years or something.
What do you think, how good is your crystal ball for where you think the main tribes are going
to be and moving forward and what the main narratives are going to be over the, whatever
the next 18 months?
Well right now everything is feeling really fractured by platform.
So there's been an interesting migration.
I just accidentally logged into threads this morning
and saw a cut on a drama that I did not even follow
very closely at all, which was this football player
who I think at a commencement speech suggested
that women should be homemakers.
The stay at home thing.
And then one of the Kelsey's got in trouble.
Jason Kelsey got in trouble.
Both Kelsey's got involved.
And then one got very aggressive. It was like, I would never advise my daughter
to be a homemaker.
And this is, I really, I feel bad talking about this one
because I haven't dipped into it.
So I might be getting some of these facts wrong.
Don't hold it against me.
But my point is not really about the story so much
is like, I knew almost nothing about it
until I went onto threads and saw a very, a lot of support
for very left-wing type arguments of a kind that I used to see much more on Twitter and
have become sort of insulated from to a certain extent.
Wow.
Okay.
So you've got now viewpoints segregated, segmented by platform.
Yeah.
Now I saw stuff about this on Twitter or X.
Like I saw the backlash, the backlash, whoopee Goldberg
defends, but it was never so big enough to care about that you
were like, oh, I better figure out what this drama is.
It didn't penetrate to that extent on X.
It's much bigger elsewhere.
And that's because it's a bigger deal to the left, I think.
And I think that you will see this
just total fragmentation of media,
not just, you know, I'm a Daily Wire reader
or a New York Times reader,
but where do you go to talk about those stories?
It's already been a trend.
Um, Jack Dorsey talked a little bit about this in an interview I did with him for Pirate
Wires.
What do you learn from him?
You got to sit down with the ex ex Twitter man as a, as now you are one of the current
sort of big Twitter man.
Like what, what, what did you learn?
So much. Um, I think the big thing about Jack Dorsey is he's really just the most
misunderstood leader in tech, I think. Jack created something that became explosive and was a piece
of a much bigger explosion, which was social media. And, um even social media? It's more like interactive media now,
this thing where any one of us can open up our smartphone
that lives in our pocket or our supercomputer lives
in our pocket and tweet our opinion out
to millions of people.
What does that mean for society, right?
And he was at the front lines of that
and he's a free speech guy,
more so than any of the other leaders up until recently.
He's a sort of crypto-y, anarcho-capitalist-y type guy
who tried his best to maximize freedom
for as long as he could,
and then faced a lot of just impossible
to overcome obstacles with a publicly traded company. The biggest one would
have been advertising. So you have these huge advertising giants that will turn you off
overnight. And that could happen to him. And if that happened to him, and in fact, previously,
they had risked data, they've been threatened with this, you lose your stock price plummets,
and you risk a hostile takeover, which actually has been attempted on that on that company.
And so he was forced into this pragmatic place, which he has, I think,
an ideological person really hated.
He tried to create a technology that would have ended the problem completely.
No censorship ever would have happened, had to have happened again.
If blue sky worked in the way that he wanted.
Um, and then that didn't quite work out either.
He wasn't in charge of that one, but there's a lot there.
I could talk about Jack for a while.
I think the main thing is just,
I actually do believe that he was facing a set of problems
that had no one had ever faced before.
The other people, contemporaries of his
were facing them along with him.
He did slightly better than all of them, I think, in terms of-
Maybe they didn't have the value set or the ideological-
They did not. So if you're judging him as, you know, and he often is judged as someone who is very bad for free speech,
someone who is anti-free speech, someone who's pro-censorship, pro-government,
he's in fact, to a certain degree, the face of that for a lot of people, especially on the right, it's not fair. He is the best on free speech of all of his contemporaries.
He is the only one who I can see who is genuinely ideologically among the giants
who is genuinely ideologically motivated in favor of that stuff.
He just failed in, in a kind of tragic way.
just failed in a kind of tragic way.
The story of him is,
I don't know, sort of touching to me because I just see someone who really did actually try
and who for whatever reason couldn't.
Taking the company private solves a lot of the problems
that he was facing, not all of them.
The company is still under a lot of pressure
and facing a huge uphill climb,
but it's the first step in the right direction.
And it's a step that Jack himself actually helped achieve for Elon.
He was a part of that.
You know, he wanted this.
So is it the case then as different social media's, different platforms kind
of become more and less popular with certain subsets
that you are going to have, you know, everyone knows like there's some,
probably some mad shit on Rumble's comment section and truth social, but you
don't think you still think, well, yeah, but Twitter's everyone, isn't it?
And, and Instagram's everyone, like everyone's got the, like there's a big
four or whatever.
Um, are you, do you think that we're going to see this start to sort of splinter off
more so, and that means that you're going to get a skewed perspective, right?
Wing is going to see the world's going to see more right wing and progressive people
are getting, the world's going to see more progressive.
Cause that's just the Twitter's always been pretty niche to begin with.
Even before the Elon takeover, it was a saw a small social media platform
compared to the other, and in terms of advertising revenue, it was a small social media platform compared to the other.
And in terms of advertising revenue, it was small compared to other tech giants.
So one Facebook, which is the more natural comparison, but then also Google.
And those two companies swallow up all of the advertising revenue.
So Twitter's always competing for very, very like scraps basically.
But in terms of the audience and in terms of the audience this is related,
the audience on Twitter was very small. It was the small percentage of people in the country who are
super motivated by ideas, affected by ideas and want to share them and think a lot. Writing,
it's like I think language is just writers versus picture people is what you get on Instagram or
TikTok even to a certain extent, which is more like a storytelling.
Those are, those feel more, more primal and Twitter feels more, well, it's
literary and it's a, it's like literary warfare and that is not everybody in the
country.
So it was always small.
And now I would say it's even. It's increasingly smaller because the left, unlike the right, is at this moment
in time, culturally highly motivated by censorship and wanting to insulate itself
from other views and opinions, they believe, I think that the opinions are
beyond the pale and need to be iced out.
I think they're probably really scared of them because they don't have counter arguments,
which is what has motivated the entire thing.
I think probably there are a lot of left-wing people
who hear certain arguments,
probably on immigration and things like this,
that they clock as beyond the pale and don't wanna face
because on some level they recognize
that they're important arguments
and they don't have an answer to them
and that makes them uncomfortable.
But beyond the psychoanalysis, the facts are just that left-wing people don't
want to be in a place where right-wing people are permitted to speak.
And so at least the very sort of hardcore left-wing people.
So they have almost all left.
You have a lot of media people who still stay on X, but they're like the
real committed ideological type people.
Why were they?
There are a handful threads more and more,
but you can't really talk about politics there. I think that's the biggest competitor right now,
or certainly the biggest competitor,
but then you have a spectrum of that.
You have blue sky, you have Macedon,
and you have an endless number of group chats
that I think are popping up and proliferating
on those things. Then also what is it? So discord, you know, there are any number of group chats that I think are popping up and proliferating on those things.
Then also what is it?
So Discord, you know, there are any number of other places where people are pooling.
And I think the future will be some sort of more fragmented media platform situation unless
something happens at X, which turns it around, which could also happen.
Elon, I don't really believe is anathema to say, I don't believe believe is anathema to say I don't believe he's anathema to censorship.
I think that he's less ideologically committed to this than even Jack was. He believes in
it for America, free speech, but if laws start to change, you know, abroad, for example,
he just follows the rule of the law wherever it is and or the letter of the law wherever
it is. And in the context of America, we'll see, but the rules could change tomorrow.
And once they change even a little bit, I think you see people come back.
Is it weird to be building a media company right now?
And like vice fell apart, BuzzFeed's a mess.
The NPR just hired a crazy lady to run it.
Like what the fuck's happening to Rolling Stone?
Yeah.
What do you think about this sort of future of media versus independent
media and all of that?
You know, it is a really crazy time to be building a media company.
It makes no sense.
I don't recommend it.
I think it is stressful and, uh, the path to victory is very narrow.
You're not making revenue on clicks anymore.
That style of people like it's clickbait.
Clickbait doesn't matter.
It's not what's helping anybody.
That whole style of new media has died.
This is why BuzzFeed is in the state that it's at right now.
This is why someone like Vivek could even try a hostile takeover with that company because it's worth nothing.
Because that style of media just does not make business sense. What works is subscription revenue
and people subscribe to things that help them make sense of the world and confirm their biases.
So that's what's true of the New York Times and that's true of PirateWires is people who are
paying money to us do so
because they feel like we're on the same side, fighting for the same things.
That is a much smaller pool of revenue than the massive advertising flood of money that
we saw not only in the early 2000s when the social thing first happened, but decades and
decades ago.
It's going to be a way smaller industry to begin with.
I think that there is potentially a lot of interesting
upside co-branded products that matter
to your audience and you, things that you both,
so imagine you're a fitness influencer
and you're doing like a chain of gyms or something,
like those kinds of partnerships are going to matter more.
But like what that means for investigative reporting is not good.
I don't know how you do that in this new world.
This is the pen and pad that I use.
This is the app note taking app that I'm obsessed with.
And nobody cares because nobody follows investigative reporters around for identity based reasons.
And identity based reasons are what drive the entire contemporary media landscape.
So it's difficult.
Nobody has an answer to this question and if they tell you they're wrong, my sense is
fragmentation, do what you know and love and fight for the things that you believe to be
true.
I believe that you should be biased and you should wear your bias on your sleeve.
Um, and then I think that you use the revenue that you make to nurture younger
people who are telling a different part of your story that you think is important.
And that's where I hire journalists and things like this to report out different
pieces of the puzzle that I'm just not going to have time to do.
Your, your team, some of your reporters, is it River Page? a higher journalist and things like this to report out different pieces of the puzzle that I'm just not going to have time to do.
Your, your team, some of your reporters, is it river page?
He left.
Oh no.
God damn it.
Yeah. He's gone.
Sanjana is still there though.
Okay. Cool.
And we're high.
Anyway, you've got, you've got, you've got some, some good people.
You mentioned, um, uh, American colleges earlier on.
Is that the waste ground that everybody thinks that they lost cause? American colleges earlier on. Is that the waste ground that everybody thinks
that they lost cause?
American colleges?
You know, it's crazy cause they should be out of business,
right?
Like, I don't know, man.
Like it didn't seem like a lost cause 10 years ago
and people are still not only sending their kids
to go to school, but for how much money is it a year to send your kids to like NYU or something with room and
board? I think we're definitely over $60,000 a year at this point.
I think we're closer pushing to 70. I think it might, you know what?
I'm not going to Google it. If you, I don't know what you guys do in post,
if you have like a number you can flash, but it's a lot,
it's more money than I would have ever thought people would have paid for, um,
a college degree plus room and board for four years.
And you're not even accounting for interest. There it is. So 58,168 tuition, 23,927 other costs books
and on campus room and board. That's $80,000 a year. $82,095. For a year. Oh, that was, that was a 21, 22. For a year.
So that, if that hasn't killed this and the fact that it's very obvious now, these are just sort of like woke indoctrination camps hasn't killed this.
I don't know what's going to kill this.
Um, I think that.
If I'm going to every year, it feels like it's the last year, I do think if I'm not wrong, I'm pretty sure admissions were down for one of the years, but
not down nearly as to where they should be. What has to happen is the government has to stop
giving out loans, the government should have nothing to do with the government has to stop giving out loans.
The government should have nothing to do with the loan system at all.
You should be able to declare bankruptcy on your student loan debt, which you're presently
not allowed to do.
The only one that you got.
And what that's going to do, once you're able to discharge student loan debt easily, if
with a massive hit on your credit score and the government's not guaranteeing loans,
students are gonna have to go to private banks
and the private banks are gonna have to run risk analysis
and say, if I give you $82,000 a year times four
plus interest, do you have any hope in hell
of paying that back with a gender studies degree in your lifetime?
The answer is no.
And so it's a bad loan and you're not going to get it.
And once the banks start making decisions, once you allow the private banks to make decisions like this, all of the prices will reset.
They all have to most of the second, third tier.
Oh, right.
Because, because the funding is carteled inside of the system, no one gets to sort of peer under the skirt of what's happening.
We have this idea that there is almost an inalienable right to go to college.
And that is a weird cultural idea that makes no sense whatsoever.
It's way worse than even health care, which I also don't think you have like an inalienable right to.
You don't have a right to someone else's labor. That's how, that's how like rights work.
Um, but healthcare is something that you can maybe wrap your head around.
And we all need healthcare.
College does not that you do not need college.
Like you don't need to go.
You don't need it to survive.
Uh, you can make an argument that it's actually really bad for a lot of people.
Maybe even most people who are not going to sort of upper tetier schools and then just getting, certainly now you can make it because
you're being saddled with tons of debt and you're not getting great job opportunities necessarily
because of it. So because of that idea though that everybody's entitled to it and in fact needs it
to a certain extent to succeed, you can't turn people away. And that's a system we've built where
you can't turn people away from a loan no matter system we've built where you can't turn people away from a loan
no matter how massive.
And you have to get rid of that.
You have to just get the bankers back in and say,
are you able to pay this back or not?
Do I think?
And if you are, great.
And if you're not, and I gave you the loan,
then I suffer for it.
And once bankers have to suffer for these decisions,
you're not gonna have a problem anymore because they're not there.
This is the banks have been around for a very long time.
And, uh, if their existence is on the line, the loans are not going to happen.
And once the loans can't happen, the colleges have to reset their prices.
Did you see, there was a study done by Corey Clark that came out a little while
ago, a new study sheds light on taboos and signs confirming that race and IQ are
the most taboo subject of all.
They had a, they condensed down a bunch of statements that were the 10 most
taboo in all of psychology.
Did you see this?
I didn't, but I believe it.
Those are the two that I would definitely consider race and IQ to be.
Let me, let me, I'll dictate you the top 10. So the authors began by interviewing 41 researchers
in psychology to get an idea of which topics are most taboo using the researchers answers as a guide.
They condensed those topics into a set of 10 statements. Number one, the tendency to engage
in sexually coercive behavior likely evolved because it conferred some evolutionary advantages
on men who engaged in such behavior. Number two, gender biases are
not the most important drivers of the under-representation of women in STEM
fields. Number three, academia discriminates against black people in
hiring, promotion, grants, invitations, etc. Number four, biological sex is binary
for the vast majority of people. Number five, the social sciences in the United
States discriminate against conservatives. Number five, the social sciences in the United States discriminate against conservatives.
Number six, racial biases are not the most important drivers
of higher crime rates among black Americans
relative to white Americans.
Number seven, men and women have got different
psychological characteristics because of evolution.
Number eight, genetic differences explain non-trivial
10% or more variances in race differences
and intelligence test scores.
Number nine, transgender identity is sometimes
the product of social influence.
Number 10, demographic diversity, race and gender
in the workplace often leads to worse performance.
And then she went through and studied 470
psychology professors and basically found
that so many professors are terrified.
Like they don't like the censorship,
but they are terrified of speaking up,
like absolutely terrified of it.
Yeah. I mean, which one of those topics
do you want to talk about?
Oh, well, I mean, there's some stuff in there.
Like, you know, men and women have biological,
biological sexist binary for the vast majority of people.
Like, I don't know who is disagreeing with that statement.
Yeah, that's a really one at this point.
I mean, that's, you can't help but,
anyone who sees a high school race with,
let's say, a trans woman absolutely destroying her competition
is not going to be okay with that.
I mean, that's 90 plus percent of people
are going to see that and say, okay, this is fucking crazy.
And in a way, I sort of think that that's the issue.
I really do think it's like that and the COVID
sort of coercive vaccination, that combination
just ended the whole prior order of thought policing.
That was the solvent that undid the adhesive.
It was just on the COVID stuff too vicious and on the trans stuff,
specifically the trans athlete stuff too unbelievable, too absurd.
Like that combination just dispelled the illusion of authority for a lot of people. And on the
rest of them, I think probably everything you're not allowed to talk about, it doesn't
mean that these sort of people who want to talk about it or write about it, but you're
probably if you're not allowed to talk about it,
it's a safe assumption that there's something important there
that we should probably be trying to understand,
but we are refusing to for whatever reason.
Did you see that a trans woman won
Cannes Best Actress Award for the first time?
No, but-
Carla Sofia Gascon, the Spanish performer said, we all have the
opportunity to change for the better.
She made history at the festival with her gong.
Well, she certainly changed herself.
Didn't she?
It was quite a change.
I, uh, I don't know.
Like this, one of the other things that I was particularly
exhausted by over the last few years
is this desire to read conspiracy and coordination
and much more sophisticated malevolent intent
into pretty much everything.
This desire to read deeper, deeper meaning.
I think the internet kind of assumes
that people have a well-thought out reason
for everything that they do. And as far as I can tell, most people are just trying to make it through to the end
of the day and not get fired and pay for shit.
And yeah, sure.
There's like some super smart people pulling the strings at the top, but yeah.
But not even really.
I agree. I think that we want to believe they're
like, they are in charge more than they are because if
someone was in charge, that would be great.
It would be great to believe that you look around. I mean, it's like chaos everywhere.
If you're in San Francisco, whatever city in this country you're in, it's fucked.
Like you could just break it down.
There are a handful of things about it that are just
seriously, unbelievably fucked from crime to housing to just
basic level, sanitation, education, whatever, it's all
really bad. And you want to believe that someone is in
charge, because if someone's in charge, that means if you could
just bully them enough, or get rid of them and put someone
else in charge, the problem will be fixed.
But the bigger problem seems to be a combination of, I don't know, nihilism at the top among the sort of elites of our country and then no one is actually in charge. There's not a lot of
stepping up and taking control of things. And even if there was a will to do that, politically,
we're structured in such a way that it's very difficult for a single person, let alone small,
or a small group of people, let alone a single person to actually change anything. San Francisco,
for example, the homeless problem, right? It's like who, what one specific person is in charge
of that? Nobody. What group of people are in charge of that? It's a lot of people who have
some piece of it. And if you asked any one of them, are you in charge of it? Nobody. What group of people are in charge of that? It's a lot of people who have some piece of it and if you asked any one of them,
are you in charge of it? They would say no. There's no one taking responsibility
for it and I don't even, I blame them of course, they're terrible, but also part of
it is a systemic problem where we're not giving anyone the authority to do it and
I think we have to do that. We have to get better at empowering people to
actually change things and then punishing them for when they don't do it. And I think we have to do that. We have to get better at empowering people to actually change things and then
punishing them for when they don't do it.
I came across this Paki McCormick quote that said,
the greatest trick the devil ever played was making you believe that the
pessimists are the good guys. And this, you know,
just prevalent fucking cynicism, dude, whether it's top down or bottom up,
whether it's in a comment section or a press release or just in the like
lopey demeanor of the way that people sort of step out to give
some sort of statement, it's so boring and tiring.
And I wish that people were more enthusiastic about stuff.
It's pessimists are usually right.
It's a safe bet to make that something's not that something
new is not going to work. And that's why people do it. When you are making a positive prediction about the future that has never existed before. It's like your odds of being wrong or very high. And your odds of predicting all of the fallout from that are infinitesimally small. There are so many, anytime you create something,
let's talk about artificial intelligence.
You create, even if we just had chat GPT,
what are going to be the consequences of that long-term?
We have no idea.
We're still dealing with the consequences
long-term of the mobile phone.
So it's easy to be a pessimist if you just want,
I don't know, a reward for being a smart person.
And that just doesn't exist on the positive side.
You do need a positive vision for the future.
And I don't know how to incentivize that
or how to change the incentive.
I'm not really convinced that that's ever been different.
I wonder if there was a period of time
where the average person was this optimistic.
I guess people always point back to the 1950s in America.
I didn't live then, so I don't know. You know, we remember the positive stories,
but I don't know how many, I don't know how pervasive that really was.
If we had a frictionless way to dump our thoughts onto the internet or onto some ledger while we
were sat on the toilet, just what would people's thoughts have been at that time. I think about that in the context of the sixties. Like you think things are
crazy now on the internet. Can you imagine how crazy things would have been all throughout
civil rights and shit like this? Like it would have been a different, we wouldn't have, I
don't know that we would have made it. I don't know that we would have made it if we knew
everything that everyone was thinking, which to go back to our early conversation about being polite, that's the
core of politeness, right? That's why polite exists is because there is a social benefit to not saying
everything that come into your mind. And it's like, you have to choose which ones need to be said,
but probably not everything should, not only does it not have to be said, it probably should not be
said.
There is, there is a benefit socially to polite society, I think.
Decorum keeps the peace in many ways, but I think the reason that at least for me,
that I have, I'm like kind of conflicted about the whole polite society thing is that I then
go and see Sam, what's his face, that singer guy come out dressed as a devil with nipple
tassels on and like high heel leather boots.
And I go, ah, like it seems to me like any remotely acceptable line of decorum and behavior has been blasted through already
with AK-47.
What are we doing here pretending that decorum still exists?
You shouldn't be bringing up that thing.
Well, it doesn't exist though.
I think that you're right.
It does not exist anymore.
I'm saying it served probably a purpose though.
We've lost it and what are we going to become without it?
I mean, certainly in politics, everything post
Donald's before Donald Trump, I would say it was
pretty bad post Donald Trump.
Come on.
I was looking at Kamala Harris giggling over
nothing the other day on a YouTube video was
really a bizarre video where she's not really
saying anything and she keeps laughing awkwardly.
And I thought, man, if this were 10 years ago, we would say how we can't have someone this stupid
in power. It's just crazy, let alone the senile Joe Biden. Of
course, that's crazy. But let's talk about how dumb Kamala Harris
is that she's that's an actual, like, sort of classically
presenting idiot. And she is a heartbeat away from the
presidency. Just a complete moron. It never would have
happened. And she's sort of
talking about the food that she's eating and I, it's, I haven't seen this clip. She's trying.
What I saw was an example of her trying to be relatable. And that
is not in keeping with the image of the presidency that has endured for the last, what, since
the founding fathers existed.
Okay?
Like we need that person to be powerful and thoughtful and trustworthy, someone who we
believe can run the country, right?
Like that all turned on its head in a world post Trump.
Like once you elect the reality television star at the presidency,
anything fucking goes.
Monarchy.
That's what you need.
Someone who has been bestowed from God.
So you got to go all the way back.
Yes.
And that's maybe the really controversial thing that needs to be said.
It's like, was George Washington, the good guy or the bad guy?
And I don't think America is ready for that conversation.
Wow.
TikTok ban.
What do you think is going to happen there?
Or what would you like to see happen?
I don't think it's going to happen.
I think that, I, I think that.
Well, certainly we're looking at at least a year of litigation and in that year,
who knows there's just, who knows what will happen?
I'm in favor of it, but I'm in favor of much more
aggressive action against China.
I don't really, the spying thing is a whole complicated
talk that we could talk about.
And I believe it is a liability for the country
to have China control one of our largest broadcast networks in the history of the country.
But I am also just really thinking a lot about trade and the massive disparity in trade.
We need reciprocity. If China is banning all of our social media companies, we should ban all
of theirs. If China's banning anything that they're banning or any tariff they're levying,
we should be doing the same thing. In fact, we should be doing more of it because what we learned in COVID is we need
manufacturing. The failure of manufacturing at home is not just sad for us and for the middle
class that no longer exists in this country. It is dangerous. It is a national security threat.
So we need to have this somehow at home.
And that's a combination of,
that is gonna require a lot of things
that nobody wants to do.
That's gonna require looking at the labor laws.
That's gonna require looking at things like tariffs.
Like this is gonna be things that annoy both,
that annoy the left, the right, the libertarians.
We're just in a huge mess right now.
And I am very much in favor of forcing divestiture of TikTok, but I'm in favor of forcing divestiture
of almost every Chinese social media company or social piece of software that exists.
Certainly every social media company, like everything, just down the line.
And then China retaliates.
They're like, oh, we're retaliating and we're banning one of your companies or whatever.
It's like you've already, do people not realize,
there is no major American media company,
the New York Times, the Washington Post,
that can operate in China.
There is no American social media company
that can operate in China.
Google cannot operate in China.
You can just go look at all the things
that China has banned, American companies.
The list is enormous, ongoing, never ending.
It's just ridiculous to be playing it this way. You can say,
Oh, well, we're not like China.
And it's like, no, we're not like China, but we do have to survive.
And that's not necessarily a good thing to not be prepared to use the tools that
they do.
Well, certainly what they have that we don't have is a will to exist.
It's like freedom, yes, great, love it, but you can't. It's like until the point at which you self-immolate and the only tools you have left to work with are controlled by a hostile foreign
superpower, which is the path we're on. And you see this in soft power type things all the time.
You see this with the way Disney has reshaped, just due to the influence of the Chinese market.
Okay, Disney starts to censor on all sorts of grounds
with the NBA and things like this.
That's just soft power.
That's not even the hard power
of they're gonna play hardball
with a corner on rare earth metals,
a corner on manufacturing.
That's, we haven't even gotten to a place
where they start wielding that against us.
That can't happen.
We need to bring it home
and we need to be a little bit more mercantilist about stuff,
which I think is a dirty word still.
I'm not sure how people think about that anymore,
but I'm pretty much a mercantilist.
Do you know the story of DJI drones?
Do you know why they're so dominant?
So this is secondhand hearsay, so I may have got it wrong, but it's a great story.
Uh, America was super concerned about individuals, citizens, uh, being able to fly drones, so they shut down a ton of American drone manufacturers.
Then they realized that the market for drones is actually quite high and guess the only company that was still crushing it in the
consumer space DJI, which is a Chinese company.
And now they are just slight years ahead.
Everything's cheaper.
Everything's better quality.
It does all of the things that it needs you to do.
And that's a Chinese company mapping fucking everything.
Yeah.
I didn't realize the full extent of that story.
You don't typically see to our credit, you don't typically see China just completely
take over an industry that was ours because China doesn't innovate at all.
I can't think of a technology that was invented in China
It's all just copy and pasting in a very great way. I mean, they're very tactically advantageous way for them
It's just see what America innovates clone it
scale it
But long term it's a that's a problem. It's a problem that is bigger than China, right?
It's like, you saw, I was just reading about
a genetic engineering controversy.
So in the mid-1970s, you had Cambridge, Massachusetts,
ban the use of and the study of recombinant DNA.
And at that point, genetic, the future of genetics
is in the balance.
All of the people working on it are there.
And it was reversed in 77, but that is,
it had to be reversed or nothing was going to happen.
And that is kind of what you're looking at in California,
I think to a certain extent with which way
these regulations on something like artificial intelligence will go and
There's enough that has been researched already that other people in different countries will use what we use and keep moving forward
They're not gonna stop. I don't see anybody in China
Developing anything ever that hasn't existed before but if we stop ourselves
They will keep moving forward with what we have started.
And so that is a problem, especially when you're dealing with potentially X-risk type
technology. So anything in biology and certainly artificial intelligence would count. If you're
building something that this is, I mean, you got to get an AI doomer on here. They have a thousand
different arguments they'll make. I'm not sold really on any of them,
but I am sold on the idea that this is a high risk
technology we should proceed,
and we should proceed sort of with caution.
Do you see Nick Bostrom's new book, Deep Utopia?
Have not seen the new book, but I have read-
Superintelligence.
Yeah, I read Superintelligence way back.
Yeah, so Superintelligence was basically
what happens if we get it wrong. Yeah. And super intelligence was basically what happens if we get it wrong and deep
utopia is what happens if we get it right.
Uh, it's really interesting, you know, to see this guy who's gone kind of
full circle and he's explaining, well, you know, this is a hopeful view for
the future, but even then, even if he kind of creates his taxonomy of four
different types of utopias and, uh, even within those, all of them have got
tons of fucking problems.
Like it is the most like thready needle to try and weave through to make this work.
And, uh, yeah, I mean, you know, I, I understand why the AI X risk Duma
conversation is compelling because it was terrifying and seems kind of likely.
Yeah, but everything seems kind of likely.
You can make an argument for the singularity. You can make an argument for the singularity.
You can make an argument for the simulation
hypothesis. Um, these are things that are almost
designed to capture smart people inside of a little
maze where there are all of these likely things,
but at the end of the day on the simulation theory,
for example, what value do you get? And even
talking about, it's like, you should just live
your life.
You should just do as many good things
as you can in your life.
And with AI, I sort of feel that way as well.
I don't, I've never met anybody who has spoken to me
in a convincing way on the big danger.
It's always the smartest of them do percentages and even those feel like,
where are you running these calculations?
Like, what are we really talking about?
It's just a giant question mark,
but all technology is a giant question mark.
And so if you want to progress,
you're going to have to take risk.
There's a question of how much are we taking
and at what scale, but I don't know, man.
I just,
I think that it's a lot like the freedom conversation we're having a moment ago.
You sort of want as much of it as you can without destroying yourself.
That's the sweet spot. It's not a maximum in any direction.
It's like, let's just not suffocate ourselves to death.
And so while I do, I am in favor of thinking about the X-risk inherent of AI.
Right now I see no evidence to slow down.
And once we see that evidence, it should be pretty obvious.
The X-risk AI people will be like, well, once it's obvious, it's too late.
Okay.
Well, I don't, you're going to have to give me a better reason.
You have to get, you have to like really paint that picture for me.
And I, that has not happened yet.
So what about the most important thing that's going to happen over the
next month and a bit, uh, Biden Trump debate.
I w I didn't think it was going to happen at all.
Um, we'll see if it does.
I'm still, are you still unsure that it's actually going to go ahead?
Well, if they allow for Mike cutting, which is what the Biden camp wants,
I don't know why Trump would accept that.
If it does happen, it's going to be a bloodbath.
Like Trump will win for sure.
Biden has not even appeared on a friendly interview
for longer than 30 minutes or something.
And I've never, I mean, could you imagine him sitting down
for two hours or three hours in front of Rogan or something?
It's not possible.
I don't know how he's going to go head to head with Trump,
who is one of the most successful short form,
like television warriors in the history of the medium.
He's really good at it.
The good news for Biden is if he somehow survives it, it'll be a huge boon to him,
but he probably won't.
And until now, but I guess I should say until now, saying nothing has only helped Trump. So I think Biden's just in a rough spot where he has sort of no choice.
Okay. When you're a declining stock, you need to do something to reverse it,
even if that thing is quite high risk.
He's on a failure course right now.
Is that what your prediction would be if there's basically no change by the Democrats,
that you're looking at Republican victory in November?
Yeah, I think it's like a smash victory.
I think it's like a huge, huge victory.
So they need to do something.
I think a big part of it is immigration, a big part of his inflation.
I think those things are weirdly linked.
Um, not the immigration is not causing the inflation.
I think the immigration is being used to sort of like stem the inflation
immigration, even if it's mass illegal immigration, has positive effects on the
numbers in the economy that you point to to say our economy is
doing well. It's just like it has all of these other effects
that for whatever reason, economists don't seem to care
about like the dissolution of our fucking culture in America,
and the simple law of supply and demand that affects more poor middle class people than rich people with desk jobs,
when you're talking about mass, low skilled immigration, people are furious.
People have always been furious, but also it's never even been this bad before.
To have, think about 10 million illegal immigrants in your country of 330 million. That's what 3% that is an enormous population of
people who broke a law to get here and people are
mad across demographics.
So the big story I think of the next election is
going to be the black vote, specifically the
black male vote, which is, has never been Trumpier and has never been Republican.
What's driving that?
Immigration. I think it's entirely immigration. I think that, I mean, you look at Chicago, videos
out of Chicago and the effects of illegal immigration in Chicago, and you look at those
meetings, those community meetings where people are coming to yell, it's black people. It's all
black people. It's black neighborhoods where this is yell, it's black people, it's all black people.
It's black neighborhoods where this is happening.
It's black people who are already having a struggling,
lower class black people who are already struggling
on work for whatever.
You could say it's unfounded, you could say it's founded,
but certainly the blame is being placed
on illegal immigration.
And no one is stupid enough to believe
that that's not Biden's fault.
So it's like this election will
be a referendum on that more than anything and then inflation and Biden sucks at both.
And so what is left? The wars. Who cares about them? Really? Not many people other than like
reflexively wish we weren't at them. But certainly Biden has gotten us into them, right? Like Ukraine happens on Biden's watch.
Israel happens on Biden's watch.
We're somehow really woven into both.
I saw this crazy, it was funny,
but darkly funny meme on Instagram.
It was the iron dome stopping a bunch of rockets.
So you saw all these rockets coming up
and hitting all these other rockets.
And the meme
just said like, my tax dollars paying for this, the iron dome, and then up here on the top, my tax
dollars somehow also paying for this. And that's like, so that's like number three, it'll be like,
that's order number three of things that we care about. And then it's just a fun culture worship,
which, um,
I'm an abortion debate. What about Ro?
or worship, which, um, the abortion debate, what about row?
I don't know.
I don't have a sense of how much people really care about this.
It seemed to matter in the last election.
I think Americans are more divided on it than people like to believe, but
is it more important than the immigration stuff and the inflation stuff to people?
I don't think so.
Um, I guess we'll see.
Yeah.
I don't know about that one.
What about you?
What do you think?
That's a really tough one to work out as well.
I think about it and think about it that much, but I think about it a good bit.
And, uh, I think most people don't know their position very thoroughly on it.
Like if you really, really quiz people hard,
a sufficiently good argument can usually begin to swear, ah yeah, well, you know, you kind of sort of right
on that thing a little bit.
It's one of the few debates,
or one of the few discussions where every time,
like I hear a Shapiro, right, do his thing
and he breaks down, life begins,
but it's not a bundle of cells, blah, blah, blah.
And I go, fucking hell, that sounds pretty compelling. And then I hear someone who's like super pro choice, give their argument. I go, fucking hell, that's super compelling.
I'm like, I, I don't know.
I just been like legitimately like actually gasoline by both sides.
And now I believe both at the same time.
I don't fucking know.
That's America has been like this on Roe V.
Wade and abortion in general forever.
It's never moved.
It's always close to 50% on both sides.
And I think that's the biggest thing that's happened to me. I think that's America has been like this on Roe v. Wade and abortion in general forever.
It's never moved.
It's always close to 50% on both sides.
There's no other issue that I can think of like that
in history.
It's just always hotly divided.
And so separate from the question of whether Roe v. Wade
was a good law and I think it was not,
or a good ruling, and I think it was not, there's the question of what should be done and that's more complicated.
And the real answer here is you want something codified. You want to codify a law rather than judge on something in a stupid way that doesn't make any sense and everybody knows is not correct. Where you with a judicial branch essentially creates a law for
you. You want our legislators to legislate and create something
but they can't agree. I think probably what makes the most
sense is something closer to what you're I don't want to wait
into it. I'm pro choice within reason like I have all sorts of
caveats like everybody else. I think that I agree with you that
most people don't fully know what they think about this.
It just makes them uncomfortable
and they don't wanna have to think about it.
But there are a handful of people who care about it a lot.
In this election, do they punish Trump for it?
Can they punish Trump for it?
I don't know.
I know that a lot of people,
I know a lot more people who talk about immigration.
I see a lot more people talking.
I don't see people talking about Roe v. Wade really.
I suppose the, yeah, the timing of it,
you're just recency bias and people's attention span
is so short that right now, immigration.
I would have to make a promise for some sort of law
to be codified.
And if he did that, he would lose a lot of people
and gain some people, right?
Because wherever he drew the line
of where abortion would not be allowed, right?
No one wants an abortion a day before birth, right?
You can just start there.
So there are some who do, some very radical people
who want that and will never let go of it.
And those people are the ones who run the organizations that are pro that are pro choice.
The average American doesn't the average left wing person doesn't the average pro abortion person
doesn't but the people who run do. So Biden has to draw a line somewhere if he's going to float
legislation. And once he does that, he gives a huge attack space for Trump to come in and be like, this man wants to kill babies. And, um, and so it's like, no one's really
incentivized to propose a law in the middle of an election that is already hard to win,
especially not a Democrat. So it's going to be hard. It'll be hard for both of them, but
like, you can either punish Trump for Roe v. Wade. Um, that's one thing, but there's
not a really clear alternative.
There's not like, if I vote for this person, I'm
going to get what I want.
It's just how viscerally people are
affected by this as well.
You know, it doesn't, abortion by definition is
an individual impact, whereas something,
something like economy, inflation, immigration,
those things are much more scatter gun and
they're felt by people.
Uh, on mass, there's waves of it that occur, like literally, right? There's waves of it that occur.
And I think that that galvanizes people in a different sort of way, but it did.
It's, I mean, that debate, my God, uh, here's one thing that I have noticed though.
Trump is way less in the news.
Like I just don't see you think about the buildup to the last two elections.
And it was everywhere.
I'm like, where the fuck is it?
Cause he's not on Twitter.
Like what's going on?
I just don't see.
It's huge part of it.
Part, I mean, part of it was there was no primary because he didn't have to have a
primary because he was going to win.
So we stayed out of it.
And then part of it is he's not on Twitter and there are less people on,
no one's really on his network.
And there are media people are still on Twitter.
So if he was on Twitter,
media people would still at least see what he's tweeting.
He would feel more sort of present in their brains.
They would at least be more anxious about it
and be writing more about it.
And then part of it is Biden's just not,
I think Democrats are really embarrassed of him.
So no one's, while people really hate Trump on the left, they, the average
person on the left is not excited about Biden.
They're like, this feels a little bit criminal that we're trying to float
someone who's totally senile.
What do you think of people on the right?
Think an equivalent side, they probably really don't like Biden,
but do they really like Trump?
There are people who love Trump in a way that no president has been loved in our
lifetime, like, and it's a non-trivial fraction of the right people who fucking
love him, who would do anything for him.
And, uh, that's not a majority of the right.
That's a good, huge chunk of a base that really, really, really devoutly loves him.
And then you have a lot of people who are fine with him.
And then you have a lot of people who
didn't vote for him, but might now
because they have a bunch of different reasons.
Some are talking about the wars,
some are talking about the economy,
some are talking about the wars, some are talking about the economy, some are talking about immigration. You had all sorts of weird own goals on the left. So the way
that Warren went after cryptocurrency, for example, there are a lot of people with exposure to
cryptocurrency who are like, who is this bitch coming after my Bitcoin? And why does she think
that she's able to do that? That's insane. There are all sorts of tax gains proposals
and wealth tax proposals, which hit the rich,
who fuel a lot of the money behind
these different grassroots campaigns.
You also have four years of incompetency from Biden,
I think, on a range of things, but specifically,
I think foreign policy has been pretty bad.
If you're voting for a guy who you think
is gonna make things calm and return
us to norms, and then he tries to put.
The front runner president in prison and is now fighting two wars abroad.
Like that is not what you asked for.
And, um, it's like, even if he wasn't senile, it would be a hard
sell at this point, I think. Um, but he's all of those if he wasn't senile, it would be a hard sell at this point, I
think, um, but he's all of those things and he's senile.
So it's there like separate from the left.
Who's just tolerating him.
I think a lot of people on the right are like Trump's a lot of people in the
middle, I think are thinking, well, Trump's better than that.
And we know what Trump is no matter what people say about Trump being, uh, you
know, fascist dictator and blah, blah, blah. At the end of the day, we've had four years of Trump. So we know roughly what that feels like,
just like we've had four years of Biden. This is the first election like that we've ever had,
where we actually know exactly what a presidency feels in both directions.
By we, I don't mean America. I mean, we alive right now, um, have never experienced this before.
So it's, you can't really say you can't, there's no fear of the uncertainty here.
There might be fear, but it's not at the uncertainty, which fuels, I think a lot
of what happens in most elections.
Dude, it's a wild few months coming up time to make hay as the independent
media companies say Mike Solana, ladies and gentlemen, Mike, I love, I love your stuff.
PirateWires.
I listen, I've listened to all of the podcasts.
I read the morning takes.
I read everything else.
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They want to keep up to date with the things you do.
Go to PirateWires and subscribe to the daily.
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Oh yeah. Appreciate you, Mike. Thanks for my essays. Check us out on YouTube, check us out on Twitter. Oh yeah, appreciate you Mike.
Thanks for having me.
["On Fence"]