Modern Wisdom - #999 - 21 Lessons from 999 Episodes - Naval Ravikant, Roger Federer & Vincent van Gogh
Episode Date: September 27, 2025To celebrate 999, almost 1000, episodes of Modern Wisdom, I broke down some of my favourite lessons, insights and quotes from the last hundred episodes. Expect to learn how 999 episodes of Modern Wi...sdom have reshaped my understanding of happiness, success and relationships, what i've learned on losing points from Naval Ravikant & Roger Federer, the best isnights on self-belief from Vincent van Gogh, what Viktor Frankl’s paradox of meaning versus pleasure means to me, the biggest insights I've gained over 7 years and 1 billion plays, why lowering your threshold for joy makes you stronger, how busyness can act as an emotional gastric band, the paradox men face between ambition and self-acceptance, how our culture rewires romantic attraction around emotional unavailability, and much more... Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get 15% off your first order of Intake’s magnetic nasal strips at https://intakebreathing.com/modernwisdom Get 15% off any Saily data plan at https://saily.com/modernwisdom Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period from Shopify at https://shopify.com/modernwisdom Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
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999 episodes.
I don't know what to say, really.
It's a lot and I wouldn't have thought that it was even half that number
if it hadn't been for the fact that they were all recorded and numbered.
And on Monday, episode 1000 goes live with Matthew McConaughey on the biggest video wall in Texas.
with a real-life airstream reversed onto the set
and I'm about to go on tour.
So it kind of all feels there's a lot of chaos
happening at the moment.
It's very exciting.
But it's been interesting getting to do this,
preparing for this episode,
and sort of reflecting on seven and a half years of
not really knowing what I'm doing
and hoping that something
good and useful comes out of it and we just crossed a billion plays which is also very flattering
but it's felt like a period of reflection and today I'm going to take you through some of the
best lessons that I think I've ever learned and it's from the last 100 episodes only or since February
time stuff from the newsletter things that I've read ideas that I've taken from the podcast
but I've worked really hard
so if this if 999 is a flop
we'll just throw this one in the bin
chalk it up that I fucked it and
McConaughey's phenomenal on Monday so
but I think this one's really special
I hope it's going to be I did mention I'm going on tour
a lot of those shows are sold out so Toronto sold out
Los Angeles is sold out
Austin no Nashville sold out
and Vancouver all sold out but there are still tickets
available if you want to go and see me on tour
Chris Williamson.com
I'm doing New York on Thursday, October 23rd at the town hall. I am doing tour. That sold out. All of those are sold out, Boston, at the Wilbur, Thursday, November 13th. Chicago at the Vic Friday, November 14th. Austin at the Paramount, the show on Thursday, November 20th. Salt Lake City, the complex, Thursday, December 4th. Denver, the Paramount Theatre, Friday, December 5th. And that's it because Vancouver sold out. All of those are available now at Chris Williamson. Live. So you can go and get those tickets.
It's a huge show. It's sold out in London. It's sold out in Australia. It's an hour and a half long of just me.
Zach Tallander is warming up playing music. There's a Q&A at the end. There's meet and greet.
It's all happening. So go and get your tickets now. Also, I wanted to give you a gift in true British fashion, try and give back after giving 99 episodes.
I have made a playlist of music.
This has been something that's been requested for quite a while,
and I've made the Modern Wisdom Bangers playlist,
which is all of the stuff that I listen to,
a lot of tracks that you'll have heard me,
speak about on the show,
use in vlogs that Max,
the videographer,
will have used in those,
plus just stuff that kind of inspires me generally.
There is a lot of metal, email stuff,
alternative music,
grime, drum bass.
It's everything.
And you can get that,
you can go and get the brand new modern wisdom bangers playlist at chriswillx.com
slash bangers.
You can go and save that playlist.
I hope it's cool.
I really enjoyed putting it together and sort of thinking about music taste.
But yeah, before we even get started, thank you to everyone who supported the show.
Those of you that have been here from, you know, the early hundreds episodes.
Think about this.
If you listened, if you started listening to this show on episode 490,
you were in the first 50%, 499 episodes, and you're in the first 50% of listeners arriving,
which is crazy.
You know, up to that point, we'd already had Peterson on, I think, maybe twice.
James Clear had been on Robert Green had been on, Rory Sutherland had been on a ton of times.
We'd done 30 Lifehacks episodes.
Just about moved countries.
So, very strange.
but feeling the love at the moment and I'm superfied up.
The next few months have got the biggest episodes that we've ever done.
The run that we recorded in London is out of this world.
So I very much appreciate you all.
Enough waffle and retrospective whimsy from me.
Let's get into some lessons.
All right.
First one, I've been thinking about the shame of simple pleasures.
There's a quote from Visa Canverassamy that says,
I have not yet grown wise enough to deeply enjoy.
simple things. We are all terrible accountants of our own joy. Most of us only accept deposits when
the transaction is sufficiently large. The day that we get married, the night that we play the
main stage at Glastonbury, the moment that the business sells for $100 million, anything less,
and the entry doesn't even make the ledger. We treat small pleasures like counterfeit
currency. And you think, oh, that little thing made your day. That small moment made your week. How
feeble, how desperate, how limited your life must be to be thrilled by something so unimpressive.
You must not have a lot going on. We roll our eyes at the tiny events that others get excited at
as though joy must be proportionate to scale.
And yet, life is made up of little things exactly like this.
Not once in a while, always.
Your life is entirely constructed out of moments so small
they wouldn't even register as events on someone's calendar.
So, why can't something small be something great?
Well, I realized sometimes I feel things more deeply than I should do, including the shame at feeling things more deeply than I should do, and also including the shame of being delighted by little things more than I think I should. And I felt like it was as if taking pleasure in something tiny revealed the smallness of my life.
but maybe that's exactly backward, maybe the true richness of a life is how much joy you can
harvest from the smallest possible patch of soil. And here's the payoff. When you lower the threshold
for joy, you don't just get more of it, you get it now. Like, who is truly the more impressive
person, the one who requires a grand cathedral of bullshit, fanfare and galactic accomplishment,
in order to get the slightest flicker of pleasure
like some masochist at a sex party
demanding car batteries get clamped onto his nipples
before he can even get started
or the person who can do it
with a good coffee and a fresh breeze.
This feels like a test of emotional robustness.
If the only experiences you allow to bring you joy
are big, impressive and rare,
then your happiness is British.
all. You've made it dependent on external circumstances lining up in just the right way. You have
taken your joy hostage until the ransom note of life offers you something sufficiently worth
it. We are already primed to be easy to trigger, just not in the right direction. Think about this.
We already let the tiniest inconveniences ruin our mood, a slow barista, the Wi-Fi buffering.
a traffic jam that adds seven minutes to our commute. So our threshold for irritation is comically
low, but our threshold for joy is absurdly high. A stranger's smile doesn't count. A great song
coming on shuffle is not enough, throwing a towel into the washing basket from across the room.
That's lame. If something as insignificant as a red light can make you snap, why can't a good
coffee make you glow. We are already easily tipped into frustration. So you have to work equally
hard to be as easy to tip into delight. So Joe Hudson says enjoyment is efficiency. The less
grandiosity that you need to feel good, the more happiness coins that you get to pick up across
your day. So a good challenge is how little of a thing could happen to make your day.
That's a great question to ask. How little of a thing could happen to make your day? How much
excitement could you squeeze out of clean bed sheets or the smell of rain on hot pavement or a cool
breeze when you step outside? Small winds might seem feeble, but refusing to take joy from mundane
victories simply because they're insufficiently grand is the same as refusing a free ride to the airport
just because you're getting on a plane when you arrive there.
So ask yourself this.
What if something small could be something great?
Most people already have a high threshold for joy.
Do not make it worse by feeling shame
when little things break through your defenses and make you smile.
I adore this idea because it speaks to, you know,
of frankly this odd sense of shame that I have had about taking pleasure in small things
being a comment on not being impressive enough that there is this kind of embarrassment that
you know seeing a cute golden retriever on your morning walk is enough to make your morning
because how small does your life have to be that that's the thing that breaks through
But it just seems to me that if you hold your happiness hostage, you have got the entire idea of how happiness is supposed to work upside down.
And even if you have the most grand, extravagant life, you're going from private jet to Michelin Star Restaurant to rock concert to art exhibition to LSD, whatever it is, like even in between those things, there are opportunities for you to have your day made.
by something small. And yeah, I, since thinking about that idea more, it has made a huge impact
on me. So what if something small could be something great? Similarly to that, I talked about this
idea from Joe Hudson that operator guy to idea guy, which is you need to think about where
productivity comes from a little bit more carefully. And I also realized that there is surprisingly
an analogy between gastric band surgery and being busy.
So the gastric band surgery of being busy is after ongoing gasic band surgery,
people's risk of suicide tends to go up.
And that's perhaps unsurprising because gastric band surgery is a big deal
and can sometimes have complications, infections, painful outcomes.
You're literally like putting a belt around your stomach to make it smaller
so that you can't eat as much.
It's the old-school version of Ozzympic. You know, you're physically getting in there and having to limit the space. But one of the unseen reasons for this increased suicide risk is actually due to the surgery going right, not it going wrong. So you understand gastric band surgery, lots of complications, infections, painful outcomes, but it going right can have as bad of an impact on people as it going wrong. Many patients used food as a
to deal with issues in their lives, emotional challenges, loneliness, anxiety, and after having
their stomach shrunk, the ability to use food as a comforting crutch has been taken away.
But the emotional challenge is that they were using food to deal with still remain.
So the coping mechanism has been taken away, and it forces patients now to face their issues
without a release valve.
And I think that there is an equivalent dynamic happening
when you try to elevate your life
to take your sense of self-worth from things
other than your work and your level of busyness.
So let's say that in the past you used busyness and chaos
as a way to distract yourself from feeling unwanted emotions.
It meant that you didn't need to reflect on your decisions
or sit in discomfort,
that you're moving so quickly that you never fully connect with the things that are happening
in your life. Lost relationships, disconnected friends, poor decisions, accumulated negative character
traits that all swept away so quickly that you don't even have time to consider them
by manic work rate. So eventually you realize that chaotic busyness is not your highest calling
in life and maybe you value different things now, or maybe you've outgrown that phase of your
life, or maybe realize that busyness for busyness's sake is detaching you from connecting
to your existence. So the question here is, what happens when this coping mechanism gets taken
away? You are forced to face your issues without the highly distracting release valve that you're
used to. The busyness anesthetic that you used to previously rely on has now been removed.
leaving you with two choices.
One, ignore the lesson that chaos is not fulfillment and go back down the road you just escape from
by force-feeding your way through this figurative gastric band.
Number two, actually learn to handle emotional discomfort without distracting yourself with work.
And gastric bands, I guess, in the world of Ozmpic, a kind of, it's like an old, archaic technology.
but I do think that the analogy works that you have this realization that comes in with regards
to your busyness, hey, maybe this isn't where I should take most of my self-worth from.
Maybe I am hiding the deeper levels of connection between me and the world in my chaos
and this heavily built-out calendar.
What is it?
A busy calendar is a hedge against existential loneliness.
Okay, so that's kind of the, what do you call like the cognitive gastric band?
you've had this thing wrapped around you, okay, I've really limited my capacity to do that old
workload and not feel sick by it.
Why were you working that hard?
Maybe because you just have raw ambition and I want to make the most of my life.
I'm going to make a dent in the world.
I'm going to do all of these things.
Yeah.
And that will be some of it.
But that's not all of it, man.
Like, it's a coping mechanism.
Like, what are you hiding from?
You're hiding from something.
And even if you're not hiding from something, you will have hidden things by being that busy.
Or maybe more accurately, you will have been unable to notice things by being that busy.
So it's either notice, hide, or from being so busy, have hidden.
And then when the busyness goes away, start to notice.
So either way, if the busyness begins to slow down, stuff tends to gobble to the surface.
And look, like I'm fucking speaking to myself here, okay?
all of these are thinly veiled autobiographical notes to self. But it's a challenge. Where do I take my
sense of self-war from now? How am I going to deal with not being able to hide emotions in
sweeping them under the rug of bravado and momentum is a good way to think about it? And there's this
idea from Ryan Holiday that says be quiet, work hard and stay healthy. It's not ambition or skill
that is going to set you apart. But sanity. And that sounds fantastic, apart from the fact that working
hard often stops you from being able to remain sane, especially if you push it. If we accept,
and I think this is true, that peace is a performance enhancer, that if you are unpeaceful,
if you are in disregulated states all of the time, you don't get to access creativity,
which is the highest lever that you've got. You're not enjoying the work.
so your motivation is going to decrease every single day.
Even if each time that you do a thing,
it only saps 0.1% of your motivation,
I'm about to hit episode 1,000.
I would be at 0% motivation.
And there have been times when the way that I have done work
has been net negative to my motivation.
So if you want to do a thing for a very long time,
like over seven and a half years,
which is I guess how long I've been doing this show,
I've done a pretty quick clip, right? Like a thousand episodes in seven and a half years is pretty
quick. Like even if I'd only lost 0.1% of my motivation each episode, I would be in the
red, right? I would be overdrawn by now. It is not ambition or skill that is going to set you apart
but sanity. And I think that that's because so many people make trades that they, in the
moment, it seems smart, but in retrospect, you realize was actually the thing that was supposed
to keep you going. So given that, we know that dialing back, a little bit of the workload,
having a little bit of balance, once you've reached escape velocity, this is not for you in the
first five years of doing whatever you're doing. Like, end yourself. That's the job. The job is,
nose goes against grindstone, sleep is out of the window, the candle gets burned on three ends.
That's what you're supposed to do. Okay, let's assume you've got to a little bit of escape velocity,
there's some momentum. Now you need to ask yourself some deeper questions, because
the monster that you created inside of yourself to deal with the challenges at the start of your journey
is very difficult to handle, becomes super unwieldy and undisciplined later in your journey.
And if you don't step in soon enough, it's no longer like a dog on a leash pulling you forward.
It's more like a parasite that's grown inside of you and is staring out of your eyes.
Like the difference between you and the drive is very hard to pull apart.
And I think that's why I've been talking about this so much recently that this last 12,
months, I've really tried, sort of asking myself the question, who am I if I'm not busy all the time?
Or who am I if busyness isn't my primary contribution to the stuff that I do?
Fucking hard question. It's a really hard question to answer. But Mark Manson as well just had this
banger from the start of the year, which was before you win, everyone will ask you why you're
working so hard, and after you win, everyone will remind you how lucky you got. Hormosey twisted
that into before you win, everyone will ask you why you're working so hard, and after you win,
everyone will ask you why you're working so hard. If that doesn't just go to show that most
people are not worth listening to, like myself included, right, but I do think that this is true,
like the self-grandiosity of every person that's just come upon an idea that they can't
stop talking about. I think this one's got some legs to it, all right? Most people are not
worth listening to, me included, but this one's got some legs, so do your own assessment.
Your results may vary. But it's tough, letting go of busyness, leaning into what would a little
bit of calm be like for a while, and then turning that up and turning that up and turning that up,
because why did you work so hard if it was just to allow yourself to work harder in the future?
that's not to say that working hard isn't enjoyable
but that by working hard you don't fully get to connect with life
because it sweeps lots of things under the rug
and it is a coping mechanism
it is an obese person using food as a crutch
you are obese with your workload
you are a workload fatty and you are continuing to eat
and that is how you deal with your problems
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a checkout. All right, next one. This is fucking money. Some advice on how to support men. Men want to
aim high without feeling insufficient if they fall short. Men want their suffering to be
recognized and appreciated without being pandered to or patronized and made to feel weak. Men want
to believe that they can be more without feeling like they're not already enough. Men want to be able
to open up without being judged. Men want support without feeling broken. Men want to be loved for who
they are not for what they do. So the TLDR is blending inspiration with compassion is not an easy
task. You can even say blending aspiration with compassion is not an easy task. So a question that
every guy has asked themselves is how do I set lofty goals which drive me to fulfill my
potential without feeling less than if I don't get there tomorrow?
And the desire for self-love and high performance comes into conflict inside the mind of everyone.
But men especially.
Sure, some men are all drive and goals with non-introspection.
And sure, some men are all reflection and inner work with few external desires.
But I think most men desire a mix of encouraged self-belief,
and understanding support.
Inevitably, these two things come into conflict.
Basically, every man just wants to hear,
I know you can be more, but you are enough already,
and even if you just stay where you are,
I'll be right here next to you.
You're going to be great, but you don't need to be great,
and I'm with you no matter what.
if you as a person that's close to a man in his life can say those two sentences to him
I wonder how few men have ever heard that I know you can be more but you are enough already
and even if you just stay where you are I'll be right here next to you you're going to be great
but you don't need to be great
and I'm with you no matter what.
What better of a platform
launch pad
to begin a
limitless vision of what you can do with
your life than that. This blend of aspiration and compassion. Sturgle Simpson's mom, he's got this
great line in one of his songs, Sturgle Simpson's mom says, boy, I don't care if you hit it big
because you're already number one. And I just get the sense that that this is the challenge
that we have with men, right? We often talk about the challenge that we have with women.
They are emotional and hard to understand. And what do they really mean when they say that thing? And they passive aggressive, but they get, you know, sometimes aggressive, but sometimes, you know, submissive, but sometimes, dominant. And how do I, you know, okay, I get it. I get it. And I've highlighted enough on this show about some of the challenges of sort of women's internal mental states. But this is a fucking big one. And you as a man need to admit this. You need to admit this to yourself and you need to admit it to the people around.
you, because you are hard to deal with. If you're a guy who aims high and is introspective,
which I get the sense is a lot of the modern wisdom audience. It's between 80% on YouTube and
like 70% on audio platforms, guys, you have not been able to listen to me, waffle on
about emotions and feelings and introspection and mindfulness and moments of peace and a realistic
path to enlightenment if you do not do the reflection thing. But also there's way too much
homozy-pilled, going fucking end worlds, Goggins mode jocco stuff for you to not also aim high.
So I think I can make a fair assumption even though I don't know you that you are the sort
of person who reflects and aspires at the same time. And this is where this comes into land.
it meets reality when you want to feel supported without feeling broken,
like you're able to open up without being judged.
Like you believe that you can be more without feeling like you're not enough already.
Like your suffering is recognized and appreciated without being pandered to or patronized
and made to feel weak.
Like you can aim high without feeling insufficient.
if you fall short.
This is the challenge of a mindful Chad trying to make his way through the world.
You understand that you want to achieve lots of things,
but you also don't want to look past the present moment.
You know that connecting with the world around you is really important,
but that too much connection can actually limit your outcomes,
that the outcomes are important, but that also not everything.
This desire for self-love and high performance.
comes into contact right here, inside the mind of men especially.
And yeah, I think, look, how much can we say this to ourselves, maybe a bit?
But I get the sense that we wouldn't have this type of drive
if the people in our lives had said this to us more previously.
So you can do your stuff, you can continue to turn up and do the work.
But if you are someone that is around a guy that is feeling,
this sort of challenge. I know you can be more, but you're enough already. And even if you just
stay where you are, I'll be right here next to you. And you're going to be great, but you don't need
to be great. And I'm with you no matter what. That being said, if you're a guy whose girl listens to
the show, which is a lot of them, and she texts you either of those things. So maybe run that
through chat, GPT, perhaps, and, like, you know, get a couple of adjustments or alterations.
There's, I guess, an interesting parallel here with a stat that George from the Tinman sent me to do with male suicide, which is 91% of middle-aged men who died by suicide sought help by the services that we tell men to always turn to.
91% of men who took their own lives in middle age had already opened up to support hotlines, mental lines?
health, suicide awareness, stuff like that. So the men need to open up more thing just in some
ways is not working. And I don't know what it is. I don't know where the fissure, the crack,
the gap is that men are falling through. Maybe it's a lack of understanding about what men need
when they open up. Maybe it's that the guys are struggling to use the right language in order to be
able to communicate what they need if they do get into these conversations. Like just opening up,
seeking help does not mean that you engaged with the help. I'm happy to lay this at the
feet of some men. But the one thing that we can say is it's not working. So what does a
healthier approach to trying to compassionately inspirement? Like that's it, right? Like
compassionate inspiration is what we're looking for, this acceptance of shortcomings whilst a vision
for something great. It's a paradox. It's a paradox, right? Both of those sentences that I think
would make any man melt, their paradoxes. You are enough already, but you can be more. I will be
here right beside you and I love you as you are. And I will still love you even if you become bigger.
But I know that you want to become bigger. But it's tough. It's tough to navigate. And I think
it's important for guys to recognize that conflict inside of themselves. I think it's really,
really fucking important because you are difficult in different ways to women you are difficult
and you know to bring this into land for the goals like should you be babying the men in your
life if you see this as babying you are not the sort of partner that is ready for the kind
of guy that listens to this show however we do need to put a sort of
utilitarian rational justification down on the table, and women need men to be successful.
Well, women can look after themselves. They're out-earning men. They're out-educating men,
socioeconomically, so on and so forth. Yep. Most of them want to be in a relationship.
Most of them want to be in a long-term committed marriage. And male unemployment is not good
for marital success. When women lose their jobs, there is no impact on divorce likelihood.
When men lose their jobs, the chance of divorce goes up by 33%.
That means if you have undriven men, the likelihood that you as the woman in their life
gets divorced has just gone up by 33%.
It is in your interests both rationally, objectively, subjectively, astrally, fucking
comically, it is in your interests to support the men in your life.
compassionate inspiration is the way to do it.
And
that was a rant.
That was a rant.
I'm all,
I'm all fired up on episode 999.
Another one that I did,
this is one of the fucking coolest ideas.
All of these,
I said at the start,
like I'm blowing,
I'm philating myself,
but I've done 999 episodes.
Give me,
give me a break.
Also, wasn't 999,
like the inverse of the devil's number?
Isn't this God's number?
number or something, because 666 is the number of the beast. I don't know. We can say that.
I've been trying to work on this idea for a really long time. And again, these are
thinly veil. Actually, just totally transparent, autobiographical notes to self. But I love this
idea. Victor Frankel has this famous quote where he says, when a man can't find a deep sense of
meaning, they distract themselves with pleasure. So Frankl is,
arguing that a lack of meaning causes people to seek temporary relief in superficial pursuits
rather than addressing the underlying existential void, and perhaps for many, maybe even most
people, this is a big issue. But there is another group who suffer with the opposite problem,
and this is Frankel's inverse law. When a man can't find a deep sense of pleasure,
they distract themselves with meaning.
So, if ease and grace and joy and playfulness do not come easily to you,
one solution is to ignore moment-to-moment happiness entirely
and just always pursue hard things.
You become a world champion at winning the marshmallow test.
You convince yourself that delayed gratification in perpetuity is noble
because you struggle to ever feel grateful.
The TLDR is that you prioritize meaning over happiness because happiness does not come easily
to you. The problem is that delayed gratification in the extreme results in no gratification.
Alan Watts has got this idea, if we are unduly absorbed in improving our lives, we may forget
altogether to live them. Everyone is taught that on the other side of discomfort is something
valuable. We're told that worthwhile things are difficult to attain because if they weren't
difficult to attain, they would not be worthwhile. And this is how non-valiable but difficult
things get slipped into our desires without us noticing. Attaining something worthwhile is
often going to be difficult. But just because it's difficult does not mean it's worthwhile.
Doing something well doesn't make it important.
some people are hyper responders to that instruction, and they go on to become workaholics and
insecure overachievers. And from the outside, this looks like you've transcended the shallow need
for pleasure. But in reality, it's just cope to avoid facing the fact that you struggle
to feel joy. So instead, you perpetually promise yourself that happiness might finally come
tomorrow. But like running toward the horizon, tomorrow never arrives. Congratulations. You've
managed to subjugate your joy as tribute to your work. Do not mistake humorless and
fun-lacking seriousness with being sophisticated and caring about your pursuit. You took type A
advice for type B people and turned it into a fucking religion. Thoreau said the price of anything
is the amount of life that you exchange for it. And by this logic, many of us are paying into a bank
account that we never withdraw from. Permanently winning the marshmallow test results in you
never actually arriving at a moment where you cash in your efforts for rewards.
And in anticipation, this sounds like building up to some amazingly impressive moments which
will make all the pain worth it. But in retrospect, I get the sense that this will just feel
like a series of miserable successes where you never stopped to actually enjoy your time on
this planet. You need to do at least a bit of what you care about now, as opposed to banking on
finding time for it in the future. Once the decks are cleared and life's duties are out of the
way, life's duties will never be out of the way. And so if you really mean it, when you say that
you'd like to write a novel or spend more time with your aging parents or fighting climate change
or having fun, at some point, you're just going to have to start doing it. That's from Oliver
Berkman. This is a sweet, I guess, of challenges that we're talking about today and a lot of
them are in tension with each other, right? This sort of desire for drive whilst realizing
that it's a coping mechanism, this need for inspiration and aspiration whilst also realizing
that compassion is something that's important, this understanding that you do need to delay gratification,
but if you're the sort of person that takes delay gratification advice to heart,
you probably are a hyper responder and didn't need to hear more of it.
You actually needed to hear.
Maybe you should cash some of that in.
But I think that idea that Frankl's inverse law,
when a man can't find a deep sense of pleasure,
they distract themselves with meaning.
I see in a lot of my friends that they became serious about pursuits
and found that meaning was easier to attain than happiness was.
that working work was easy than play actually there's this idea I think about the ancient Greek word for work was translated as not at leisure so leisure was the set point and work was the aberration and the people who are ruled by Frankl's inverse law see the opposite they see work as the set point and leisure is the aberration and and leisure is the aberration
and again like letting go of this like fuck like I have to I want to build the life that I want I want to get out of the country or the the fucking culture or the wealth bracket that I've been born into or that I fell into or that I stumbled backward into I have to create this special kind of monster inside of me in order to be able to do that and yes you do but if you never let go of it you end up it's like a dose response curve thing right this kind of an interesting idea for
medicine, some, maybe most drugs have a dose response curve. You can see it's kind of a
a you like that. Too little and not much happens. The right amount and something happens,
too much and something bad happens. Like, ensuring that if you don't work hard enough,
things in your life will not go well. If you work too hard, things in your life will not go well. If you work too
hard, things in your life will not go well. If you work just about the right amount, things in
your life will probably go great. And working out where that line is is the task of the
perennial overthinker. The insecure overachiever has to always be asking the question,
do I need to put my foot on the gas more or less? And if you find yourself regularly outworking
all of the people around you and then not choosing to do it, I don't.
think that maybe you should consider just lifting that foot off a little bit.
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Another idea, I've been thinking about impediments to happiness
and I can see two obvious roadblocks.
First one is wanting things to be different.
Happiness is the state when nothing is missing.
When nothing is missing, your mind shuts down
and stops running into the past or the future
to regret something or to plan something.
if you want the world to be different, your happiness is held hostage until that change occurs.
Sometimes, this is an actual change that you need to make, to leave an unhappy relationship,
a change from an unfulfilling career, complete and difficult conversation,
and we often will remain in years of misery to avoid a few minutes of pain.
The second roadblock to happiness is uncertainty.
Humans never genuinely pursue happiness.
They only pursue relief from uncertainty,
and happiness emerges momentarily as a byproduct
whenever uncertainty briefly disappears.
If you feel like you can't predict the future,
you will default to fear and worry
and rumination, and your mindscape will eclipse reality's landscape.
Worrying about the thing you can't predict usually involves a nightmare fantasy,
which is way worse than what could happen in reality.
However, this imagined nightmare briefly collapses the chaos of the world, inter certainty,
and this is how much humans abhor not knowing how the future will unfold.
we would rather imagine a catastrophe than deal with something unpredictable.
Sometimes these situations overlap.
A family member gets an uncertain medical diagnosis, and we can't be with them.
We argue with our partner while we're apart and don't know how they're feeling overnight.
We try to mend a broken friendship with a letter and haven't yet got a reply.
So, if you're feeling unhappy, look to where you're uncertain,
and where you want things to be different first.
I really think that there's a lot to this,
these two impediments to happiness, right?
That you want things to be different
and things are uncertain.
I mean, a great description about how anxiety works is
you're unable to work out what's going to happen in the future.
so your mind imagines it invests a lot of time and energy into lots of alternative scenarios
in the hopes that if you had already seen how those scenarios might occur
if they do occur you are better prepared for them if you know that one thing is going to happen
you can still be anxious about it but the anxiety takes on kind of a different tone
and I think that this prediction error of the future
is perfectly explained by the fact that we would rather genuinely, genuinely rather imagine a nightmare
than deal with uncertainty. Like, it does collapse down. If it's the worst thing, it's cancer,
it's cancer and a gluten intolerance and an infidelity at the same time. It's all of those
things together somehow. That is horrible. And weirdly more.
satisfying than thinking, I don't know what it is. There was this idea around COVID called
compensatory control. When people were asked to imagine an uncertain medical diagnosis in
the lab, imagine that this is the diagnosis that you were given on a medical report,
they were more likely to see
meaningless patterns in random static on a TV.
They basically saw trends where there were none.
They tried to bring order even into situations that were chaotic
and the connection to this and COVID was that
even before the lab leak had sufficient evidence behind it,
like the people that say that they were press,
and understood that this was a thing, other than there is a place in Wuhan that does this
and the virus started in Wuhan.
Like other than those two things, which is quite a bit, but not everything, nobody knew
because there weren't any stats.
And now it seems like the zoological origin and the RNA sequence, all this stuff,
there's maybe a little bit more.
My point is a lot of the people that were early on that, you were, I think, leaning heavily
into compensatory control because it is far easier to believe that a pathogen exists
because of some malign scientist than the chance mutation of some silly little
microbe. And even if this is the case, even if it is a lab leak hypothesis is true,
you can't deny that it is much more comforting to be able to work it out by human motivation
and carelessness or evilness or the CCP trying to take over or whatever.
Like that is a story that we can all understand.
What we can't understand is asteroids are random and sometimes they hit Earth.
Well, do we deserve it?
Like, think about the personification of the reason for this happening.
Oh, this is judgment from something that we have done.
This is righteous retribution.
Why?
Why do we need that story?
well, some people's beliefs, but on top of that, it wrangles randomness into certainty,
and this is obviously an impediment to happiness, as far as I can see.
It fucking plainly gets in the way of our happiness, because how are you supposed to be happy
if you want things to be different? If you are unhappy right now, you're ruminating about
the past, you're dreaming about the future, you're never in the present, you're holding
your happiness hostage again. And if you've got uncertainty, that's like a fucking multiply.
And like I say, sometimes you argue with your partner and you don't know how they're feeling
overnight. So you want to not be arguing and you've got uncertainty about how they feel.
A family member gets an uncertain medical diagnosis and we can't be with them. I want it to be
different and I have uncertainty together. And I think this is like a real potent cocktail
of dissatisfaction that often occurs in our lives.
Next one. I wrote a pretty spicy article, I think.
Is pop culture teaching women to choose emotionally unavailable men?
Maybe. What's the weirdest propaganda that you feel like movies have tried to push on you in your lifetime?
For me, I grew up with tons and tons of movies that kept saying that the worst thing a man could be is a grown-up.
You'd see a love triangle of romances where the guy you're supposed to be rooting against his only sin is that he's kind of normal. He's got a job and stuff. But then some other guy, a bad boy, would come along. And it doesn't matter that he sleeps in his car. Or if both of the guys are financially stable, you're supposed to root for the one that is less emotionally stable, the one that's more childlike.
Jason Pagan just broke my brain with this insight. I think it's so right.
Modern romance culture isn't just telling stories. It's shaping selection criteria.
Across movies, media, even mainstream dating advice, women are being subtly conditioned to seek
out emotional unavailability and volatility as signs of desirability.
And the result is a generation of women confusing conflict with compatibility and drama
with depth and brokenness with misery.
Rather than choosing partners based on emotional maturity
or shared values or long-term compatibility,
many are drawn to conflict, aloofness, and unavailability.
It's the he's hard to love, but I can fix him, fantasy,
repackaged and repackaged in everything,
from films to novels.
In the notebook, Ali chooses Noah,
the poor, impulsive, deeply emotional man over Lon, her secure and respectable fiancé,
what's the conclusion?
Stability is boring and true love is obsessive, chaotic, and all-consuming.
In Titanic, the scene that makes you like Jack more than Rose's wealthy fiancé Cal is that for fun,
Cal just sits and has quiet conversations with his friends, whereas Jack has fun with big,
loud parties, and the movie portrays this as him living more authentically or living life to its
fullest. But really, he's just living like a teenager. He has nothing to offer rows in terms of
reliability or safety, yet this brief, fiery connection is portrayed as more authentic than
anything she could have had with a professional fiancé. In Twilight, Edward Cullen is
dangerous and obsessive and emotionally tortured
and that is precisely what makes him desirable.
Bella's rejection of Jacob,
who's warm and grounded,
underscores the trope, right?
Safe is boring, danger is hot.
Beauty and the Beast takes it even further
by literalizing the fantasy.
Love turns rage and violence into virtue.
Similarly, a star is born,
present Ali's Rise and Jackson Main's spiral as tragically intertwined.
Her love is deepened, not diminished, by how much he unravels.
This is a twist on something called the Byronic hero.
It's a literary archetype based on the persona of poet Lord Byron.
He's usually emotionally isolated or unavailable.
He's often morally ambiguous or anti-heroic.
He's at odds with society or authority.
possesses a tragic past or trauma, and women are often drawn to him, despite his
destructiveness. Even modern women's advice keeps repackaging difficult as passionate. Teen Vogue
runs headlines like, super bad, why are smart girls drawn to bad boys? The sun gushes about
why the sexiest stars go for the bad man. The takeaway is, if he's cold, complicated or broken,
he must be worth it. Safety is sterile and suffering is sexy. There's a neuroscience trick being played
on us all here though. Things that are valuable are often hard to get, but just because something
is hard to get does not mean it's valuable, which is why scarcity and unavailability are often
mistaken for worth. Romance stories reward the woman who wins the affection of the aloof or
emotionally damaged man, the harder he is to access, the more meaningful his eventual affection feels.
In reality, sure, perhaps there is a noble savage who can be saved by the right woman. But
realistically, this just prioritizes partners who are not capable of commitment over ones
who already are put together and ready to go. Typically, coyness isn't
love. It's emotional immaturity masquerading as romantic spark. The problem is that intermittent
reinforcement is the exact mechanism that drives addiction. You are not in love. You're hooked.
Variable schedule reward is the bullseye of dopamine. It's how slot machines work and why social
media is so compelling. Our brain says if something is scarce, it must be more precious. And we take
this economic dynamic into our love lives. So if someone stops texting us or we feel like
they're drifting, all of a sudden our brain says they must be important. If they say,
here I am, I genuinely like you and very much want to commit, our brains respond with,
what's wrong with you? If you treat me like crap and you're in and out of my life and you
text me a bit, and then you go cold, and I don't hear from you.
Many people think they might be the one.
It is no coincidence that so many modern relationships do not begin with mutual understanding,
but with a chase.
We have taught women to interpret emotional inconsistency as romantic tension,
to pursue the man who offers breadcrumbs of affection instead of consistent support,
to believe that love is meant to be hard,
earned, not freely given. This has real consequences. It normalizes dysfunction. It rewires attraction
around trauma. It sidelines healthy men and glorifies emotionally stunted ones. And it leaves
women feeling like emotional burnout is the price that they have to pay for passion.
Emotionally mature, transparently keen, and immediately available men are ignored in place
of someone who amounts to little more than an effective dopamine trigger.
This is why so many guys have so little sympathy for the where are all of the good men at question.
Whether it's through painful personal experience or by being subliminally reminded of it in pop culture,
men who are ready to commit are fearful of doing so because they've noticed that many women seem to like them more
and soften up when they're mistreated and kept guessing.
I saw this comment from a guy on Instagram, which encapsulates this perfectly.
He said, I'm trapped in a generation where I don't know whether to buy her flowers or ignore her to get her to like me.
Men will do what women demand of them in order to get laid.
Women set the standards for sex and men meet them.
There's this idea from Roy Baumeister.
He says, although this might be considered an unflattering,
characterization, we have found no evidence to contradict the basic general principle that men will do
whatever is required in order to obtain sex and perhaps not a great deal more. One of us characterized
this in previous work as if women would stop sleeping with jerks, men would stop being jerks.
If, in order to obtain sex, men must become pillars of the community or lie or amass riches by
fair means or foul, or be romantic or be funny, then men will do precisely that. So, similarly,
If men need to be broken, flaky, non-committal and inconsistent, they will meet these standards
appropriately. Women's mate choices, modern romance culture, and girl magazines are not at fault
for emotionally unavailable behaviour in men. But they're not totally unrelated to it either.
What is needed is a clearer picture of healthy connection.
Elandiboton had this wonderful insight where he said,
it can take a very long time indeed for some of us to come to a highly basic sounding
realization.
We should only contemplate going out with people who are very enthusiastic about us
from the start.
Without the need for persuasion, without any call for begging or chasing or strategic
withholding of affection or visits to therapy, just plainly and simply keen, open and
ready from the get-go. We may tolerate a prospective partner who tells us that they like us a lot,
but that they will be only available to see us again in a month, or someone who casually mentions
they are presently trying to decide between us and three other suitors, or a compelling career
abroad, or someone who can never bring themselves to initiate sex or hold our hand in public.
A bit deeper into our relationships, we may similarly not spot that it might be less than I
ideal, to be trying to convince someone that they should go to therapy so that they'll
finally see that they want us or that we are, in fact, just as much fun to spend Saturday
evenings with as their friends are. To cut through the nonsense, we may be in need of a robust
awakening. The only person we should for a moment ever contemplate being with is someone who,
at the start of the journey, can already be at the table with a conviction.
to match our own. We can be forgiven for being for a long time, deeply charmed by all the
others, those who are coy and troubled, those who don't reply to our messages, and those whose
difficult childhoods render them enchantingly off-kilter. But this is a game we can, in the end,
ill afford. It is not love if you need to keep messaging and they rarely reply. It is not love
if they are evasive or surreptitiously liking someone else's posts.
It is not love if they get defensive or describe your legitimate requirements for attention
as too intense.
We need to get the wavering, defended ones out of our lives immediately.
And that will mean ejecting the majority of people that we meet.
All the more reason to focus on the very few with native enthusiasm.
We need to hone our skills at recognising the keen ones and clear everyone else out of the way.
Stop imagining that they might be shy or that you haven't made your intentions clear enough.
Let's say it again, for good measure.
The only worthwhile lovers are ones who don't need persuading.
Those who like us a lot already, those who never leave us wondering where they might be or when they might reply,
those whose commitment to us flows so easily that all the focus can be on the difficulties
of living day to day. The day to day of living life is tough enough already without the
difficulty of convincing someone to commit to us in a way that we are already prepared to
commit to them. The others may be fascinating, lovely looking and about to change their
mind in 15 and a half years or after a trip to India or capable of
of generating lots of late-night arguments and ideal for a movie or a psychoanalytic case
study, they are also just a plain waste of our precious time.
Is this everything wrong with the modern dating market?
Obviously not.
Is it a big part of it?
I think so.
I had this conversation with Gay Hendricks a few weeks ago.
I kind of explained to him this journey that I'd been on when trying to understand human mating.
You know, you start off and you see these big macro trends and you realize how to people aren't having sex and the birth rates declining and look at the amounts of people that say they don't want to even couple up.
This seems strange.
And then the next step you go to is, okay, well, what is it that human psychology, how does that work?
And that's the evolutionary psychology approach.
You're thinking, well, I'm going to learn about ultimate and proximate reasons for behavior
and mate guarding and male parental uncertainty and intersexual competition and status.
And, you know, sort of the mechanism by which our mating works inside of our own minds and between us.
But that's not enough, right?
So you've got big macro problems.
And then you've got an understanding of what the system is in the individual.
then you need to combine those two together, which is, okay, so given the stats that we're seeing and are underlying psychology, what is going on in the modern world, and that's mismatch, right?
So that's, you know, the T app and fucking female dating strategy and like sex ratio hypothesis and red pill and cucks and soyboys and in cells and stuff.
Like that's all of that linked together, trying to apply what you've learned from evolutionary psychology into the stats.
Okay, so maybe that's an explanatory mechanism in the modern world,
the unfit for purpose thing.
And all of that was cool and sort of captured me for maybe about three years,
three or four years perhaps.
But then I realized, at least in my own life and in the lives of my friends,
I wasn't ever seeing this stuff actually come into land.
Like there was no point where I interacted.
with the socio-economic status of another person, almost all of it was mediated by emotions.
And sure, a lot of this, the emotions are the end point, like how all of this stuff comes
into land, right? The way that you show up emotionally for somebody is going to be impacted
by their socioeconomic status. It's going to be predisposed by your evolutionary psychology
underpinnings, et cetera, et cetera. I get that. But the most direct interface that you have during
dating is your emotions, it's your emotional state, it's how you relate, right? So it was all about
relating. And that's where this insight came from, that what are we teaching people to look for when it
comes to relating and women specifically, given that they are the ones who, for the most part,
are doing the choosing, right? Men are sexual protagonists and women are sexual selectors,
mating protagonists, mating selectors. So if you're the one that's doing the selecting, what are the
sort of rules and pieces of advice that you're being given about how to select.
And I do think that there's a lot to that theory.
Intermittent, very, very intermittent reinforcement gets confused for emotional spark.
And it results in good, committed men being seen as broken because the subtext every woman
has been told is, if he's there and ready for you from the get-go, transparent about his needs
and wants, there's got to be something wrong with him because love is not supposed to be
easy. It's supposed to be effortful. And it disincentivizes men from being open about what it is
that they want. Again, either through personal experience or from watching culture or from
hearing stories from friends that have been through stuff, they adjust their behavior appropriately.
And if the choices between, I don't know whether to get her flowers or ignore her texts to make her
like me. Be careful what you wish for. Again, women are not entirely to blame for the way that men
show up in relationships, but they do. Everybody responds to incentives. So be careful what
incentives that you give the people that you say you want to be emotionally open to you.
All right. Next one. There are a few feelings worse in this life than being right, but early.
You correctly predict a future catastrophe, trend, opportunity for growth.
or an important area of focus, only to be castigated for how short-sighted, xenophobic,
judgmental, out-of-touch, left-wing, right-wing, or alarmist you are.
The Cassandra complex, as it's known, is when someone accurately predicts a negative future event
or truth, but no one believes them.
And they're often dismissed, ignored, ridiculed.
It's named after Cassandra, figure in Greek mythology, the god Apollo gave her the
gift of prophecy, but after she rejects Apollo's advances, he curses her so that no one would
ever believe her warnings. And she foresaw the fall of Troy, warned everyone, was met with
scorn, and the city burned anyway. Rachel Carson writes this book in 1962 called Silent Spring.
She warns about the environmental damage caused by pesticides, and she gets mocked by chemical companies
and even some scientists, but her work eventually led to the environmental movement and the
banning of DDT. Ignais Sammelweis in the 1840s realized that doctors were transmitting childbed
fever from autopsies to mothers by not washing their hands. He begged his colleagues to adopt
handwashing. They laughed at him. He died in an asylum. Decades later, germ theory proved him right.
Edward Snowden warned about government surveillance. Some people saw him as a hero, many called him a traitor.
His warnings were initially dismissed until proof emerged that governments were spying on civilians.
Being right but early happens on much more personal scales too. Someone sees clear warning signs in a work environment
and warns others, this is toxic, it's going to implode. They're brushed off as negative or paranoid
until it does implode.
In a relationship, one person sees the correct course of action that their partner should take,
but is labeled controlling for trying to convince them of it.
Eventually, the other partner does come around to it,
but only after the price of bruised faith and wasted time has been paid.
In short, history doesn't reward the first to see clearly.
It often punishes them.
The people who glimpse what's coming are rarely well.
welcomed. Basically, Cassandra's bleed first so the rest of us don't have to. And we resist because
every new truth asks the existing world to die a little. It happens because people don't want
to believe uncomfortable truths, cognitive dissonance, because we trust stability and get suspicious
of those who challenge it, status quo bias. And because if the person warning us isn't
seen as credible, they're ignored, no matter how right they are, which is the messenger
effect. The main issue, beyond progress being held back, is that it genuinely disincentivizes
people from speaking up when they could have an insight that could benefit others.
Copernicus and Galileo are a perfect example of this. I love this story. I think it's such
a great comparison. Copernicus, early 1500s, quietly proposes.
something radical. The Earth orbits the sun. Humans once the unmoving center of God's design
were now spinning through space on one planet among many. But Copernicus hesitates. He delayed
publishing his heliocentric model for decades. His great work, de Revolutionibus,
only came out as he lay on his deathbed, likely to avoid the wrath, the church and academia.
His truth was too disruptive, and so, for most of his life, it went unheard.
Galileo, a century later, took that same Copernican spark and shouted it from the rooftops.
He saw the moons of Jupiter, the faces of Venus, the imperfections on the moon's surface,
all evidence that the heavens were not as fixed or divine as taught.
The church responded with fear.
Galileo gets dragged before the Inquisition.
he's forced to recant under threat of torture
and sentenced to house arrest for the rest of his life.
In retrospect, it's not surprising that Copernicus kept his mouth shut
given how Galileo was treated.
This is a core truth of the Cassandra complex.
Being right isn't enough,
and being early can feel like being wrong.
Anyway, I've been on the sidelines.
I might as well put some skin in the game
here are some things I might be right but early about.
Number one, birth rate decline is a huge deal that everyone should be worried about.
Number two, climate change should not be an existential risk priority compared with
AGI, bio-weapons, pandemics and nuclear war.
Number three, widespread hormonal birth control use is a large contributor to the mental health
issues of modern women.
Number four, normalizing egg freezing for 21-year-old women is a positive social change.
Number five, the UK is unrecoverably broken and will not be a future world power.
Number six, China is not the massive threat that everyone thinks it is.
Number seven, LLMs are not the architecture that AGI will be launched from.
I am totally open to being wrong and late about all of these, but the Cassandra
complex thing actually came about because I got popped in a long-form video essay
that was very well done about birthright decline and about how it is sort of right-wing
coded, it's reactionary. A lot of the time it is tangential or on the outskirts of sort of
trying to restrict women's freedoms. Maybe it is, maybe it's not, but the outcomes kind of end up
with women's freedoms being restricted, so perhaps it's like blast radius side effect stuff,
or maybe it's actually what they're trying to point at directly by pointing at something else
that gets to it. And I thought it was really, really well done. But I knew that my position on
birthright decline is right. And I do think it's a huge deal. And given how everybody's worried
about fucking national debt and issues of inequality, if you have fewer people,
the growth that you need in order to be able to drive the economy out of the deficits and debts that
you're in becomes harder because where are you getting the fucking productivity from? And if what
you're going to say is we're going to rely on AI and robotics to supplement the lost productivity
from halving the global population over the next couple of centuries, fine, but who's going to
capture all of the gains of AI and robotics? That creates more inequality because it's a small number
of companies that own all of that. So I felt like it's mad. It's mad.
I really don't understand how birth rate decline has become a right-coded.
I do, I do.
I was going to say I don't understand how it's become a right-coded talking point.
I do understand because it sounds sort of pro-family, Christian-adjacent, traditional, not forward-thinking, not open.
Like, I'm trying to be as even keeled as possible here.
I get it.
I genuinely do.
But, like, I'm just right.
And it's not like I'm right.
People way smarter than me are right.
But this is a big fucking problem.
And for the first thousand episodes of this show, I've always equivocated.
I've always had this sense that, well, is it really that, you know, like, I don't think.
I've always treaded carefully.
Partly because it's a protection strategy, you know, if you don't plant a stake too hard in the ground,
then you don't tend to be sort of attacked all that much.
But then I realized that I had equivocated like fuck
on these podcasts that I've done about birthright decline
and still got castigated anyway
and still being like the darling of the birth control right.
I'm like, fuck me.
This is a big deal,
especially if you want to think about the fact that political affiliation is heritable.
So your political affiliation is impacted by your parents
independent of the environment that they brought you up in. Like everything, it's at least
partly heritable. And it's not insignificantly heritable either. So if you are the sort of person
that wants liberal values, progressive ideology, forward thinking, left-leaning stuff to continue
in the future, and you are part of a group of people that does not think that birth rate
decline is an important problem, you are sowing the seeds of your own future demise from an
ideological perspective because your kids that you have fewer of will be left-leaning, but the
conservatives or the fundamental religious people that you say are the fucking enemy, or that you're
just slightly worried about, or even that you aren't worried about at all, but think that there
should be a fair counterbalance to, they are not going to slow down. Who do you think inherits the
future? Ideologically, culturally, I think that that is not something that we should. I think
we should have a balance of this, as balanced as possible. Okay? What else? Fucking economically,
it is not a good idea. You're going to end up with entire towns that are just left.
South Korea, for every hundred Koreans that exist right now,
there will be four great-grandchildren.
That is a 96% loss over the next 100 years.
In whose fucking world is this not a big deal?
And I've equivocated so much
and I've fucking caveated my way through stuff
and still got fucking slammed for it a lot.
I'm like, with this point,
I'm really fucking done on it because...
it's just correct. Demography is destiny and you can see what is coming down the pike.
Like, this is something that we should be really worried about. The reason that I say about
climate change should not be an existential risk priority. It's very carefully,
slightly, cheekily put together words. It is a priority, but it is not when you compare it
with AGI bio-weapons pandemics. Fucking birth rate decline is happening right now. It is locked in.
I think AGI, bioweapons, pandemics, maybe some nuclear stuff.
It's actually ahead of birth rate.
Birth rate is not a true existential risk, as it's called.
An existential risk is defined as permanent unrecoverable collapse.
So that's either everybody is dead, all humans are gone, no chance of recovery,
or somehow permanently locked into a lower, a regression back to a type of society.
that we can never escape from. It's kind of hard to imagine what that might be. You can imagine maybe
if some really insane damage was done to the biosphere where humans would have to subsist live
for the rest of time and they would never be able to get it back to the point where they could
be multi-planetary and, you know, like permanent unrecoverable collapse is the term. Climate change
just, it doesn't have the pace as far as I can see for that to be a priority on par with some of
these other ones. Like, AGI, I flip-flop about this on a daily basis. Could be a big deal,
might not be a big deal. People smarter than me are trying to debate this at the moment.
Bio-weapons and natural pandemics, I think we can already see, well, COVID was one of the two.
That seems like something that we should pay attention to. Fucking birth rate decline,
like all of those things, actually, this is a good point. Birth rate decline does not wipe
us out entirely. It seems very unlikely because you're going to end up with small part,
like the fucking Amish or, you know, like Israel or whatever, like these people are going to
continue. So it's not permanent and recoverable collapse. All of the others you're rolling dice
on to see is this going to happen? Is AGI going to be misaligned? Are we going to have another
pandemic? Are nuclear weapons going to be set off? Are we going to be able to develop technology
that can reverse climate change? We know that birth rates are going down. It is one of the only risks
challenges that we're facing at the moment that has such a short-term impact that is already locked in.
Yes, climate change is also, you can do the numbers, you can see sea ice melting, you can do all
the rest of this stuff. It is not happening on the same time scale. I just wish that the same
energy or even a portion of the energy that is applied to climate change could be moved over
to something which is happening right now. There are not too many people on the planet. If there
wait 100 years
150 years
you're going to be really
fucking happy
or go to Korea now
the bags of a room there
go to Japan
go to China
like in fact
go anywhere in the world
except for like a few countries
everybody's birth rates
to clients anyway
like the right but early thing
got to me
because I feel like
I'm right but early
on the birth rate
problem
and
there's this sort of special
kind of
who do you say
resentment, bitterness,
that you feel
when
you're saying that
there is going to be this huge fucking catastrophe happening
no one listens and then Troy burns anyway
if in
30 or 40 or 50 years time
people who were too pig-headed to be able to see this as an issue
then begin to campaign around things
like how do we have so few people on the planet
this needs to be fixed because the economic indicators are going down the tubes
the productivity is through the floor
I hope I'm fucking dead
I hope I'm dead because the level of
I told you so that's going to want to come out of me
is that's going to be like a
a super massive black hole. That's a singularity-sized event.
Anyway, I'm ranting. Being right but early is bad. It happens across your personal life.
It happens in big political movements. I'm probably wrong about almost all of this.
I'm probably a fucking idiot. But if I was the least idiotic about one of the things,
I think it's declining birth rates.
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All right.
Now we're out of culture war, Chris.
seven lessons about worrying and overthinking.
Number one, stop worrying.
Your fear of looking stupid to people you don't know is holding you back.
Number two, put down your ruminating brain.
Overthinking invents more problems than it solves.
That's from Gwinda Bogle.
That one hit me in the fucking throat.
Overthinking invents more problems than it solves.
This sort of weird self-perpetuating,
self-fulfilling prophecy
where
as you think more
you have more things to think about
and it is not solving the problem
that's sort of like actions
the antidote to anxiety type thing
your fear of looking stupid to people you don't know
is holding you back as well
just a lovely reminder
that
your social embarrassment gauge
is off because most people aren't going to remember you. They don't pay attention. You're not
actually looking as stupid as you think that you do. But also, it is calculated. The scope is aligned
for you and a 30-person pod that's part of 150-person Dunbar number tribe. You meet more people
that on the bus in a day. So these people aren't going to remember you. They're not paying attention
to you. You don't look as stupid as you think you do. And you have this miscalculated sense of how much
these people are affiliated with you. They're not, they're just other people. You're just not used to
meeting other people that weren't an important part of your life. Anyway, number three, your brain is a
machine gun at overthinking. It has been found that we can talk to ourselves at the equivalent of 4,000
words per minute, which is the rate of an M134 assault rifle shooting bullets.
4,000 words per minute.
That is what you can talk to yourself at the pace off.
And that was, okay, he's just such a, for the insecure overachiever, perennial overthinker person,
it's such a fucking asymmetric war.
Your brain is so much better at overthinking than you are at controlling it.
Like, even with all of the meditation and breathwork in the world, some rules that I came up with about overthinking.
Five and six, four, maybe, whatever number we're on to now.
Number four, some rules about overthinking.
You can't think your way out of a feeling problem.
Overthinking is underfeeling.
Trying to think your way into feeling emotions is like trying to drink your way sober.
Similarly, trying to think your way out of overthinking is like trying to sniff your way out
of a cocaine addiction. Your brain ruminates because it hates uncertainty so much that it would
rather fantasize a catastrophe than deal with not knowing what the future holds. That's that
uncertainty thing again, collapsing the future down. This idea of thinking in superpositions
you know, you've got two potential futures that could occur at the same time. You collapse that
position down into one, even one that's horrendous. An unpopular opinion is that your brain ruminates
because you're getting something out of the rumination and finding out how it secretly serves you
is the first step toward overcoming it. I do think that that's true. Like, well, when I ruminate,
my bitterness goes away. Or when I ruminate, I feel like I take back a bit of control in my life,
in a life that I feel doesn't have all that much control.
But when I ruminate, I feel less powerless with the situations around me.
You are getting something out of your rumination, which is typically one of the big sources
of overthinking.
So working out what it is that you get out of that is a really good idea.
It's interesting that you never get paralyzed by overthinking positive outcomes.
You only overthink about terrible ones.
so fear doesn't keep you safe it keeps you trapped whatever you fear establishes the boundaries of
your freedom so if you're afraid of heights you stay low if you're afraid of people you stay
alone and such a good asymmetry you can think thoughts at 4,000 words a minute and you tend to
only get paralyzed by overthinking negative outcomes you're not I wish in these 4,000 words a minute
they're just all about great things that might happen in my life.
Like, that's not, it's not the way that it works.
Another really sort of weird asymmetry is that most people don't think about things enough
and you are probably not one of them.
Most people should think about stuff more.
Not you.
If you are the sort of person that this kind of stuff resonates with,
that advice is not for you in my experience the more that you think about yourself the harder it is
to access happiness so in this way reflection and personal development is this weird double-edged
sword you need to self-assess to know what to work on but intense self-assessment is restrictive
to your quality of life so another tension that we're playing with here you need to do the reflection
you need to work out where the shortcomings are, what should I be working on, but also, if you do too
much of it, not only does it take up a lot of your life, but I think it actively makes the quality
of life outside of the thinking worse as well. And that's explained by just realizing the amount
you overthink is directly inverse to how much you live. So don't trade the thing that you want,
which is living, for the thing which is supposed to facilitate it, which is thinking.
Number six, perfection is impossible.
Roger Federer played 1,526 singles matches across his career.
He won nearly 80% of them, but he won only 54% of all the points he played.
80% of matches won, and he only won 54% of every point he played,
which means that even one of the greatest to ever do it,
lost nearly every other point. I think the lesson here is to treat every iteration like it matters
and then let it go. Whether it's an unforced error or a perfect winner, it's still just one point.
One failed relationship, one embarrassing interaction, one late wake-up time. It's still just one point.
what matters most is how quickly you reset
and where you finish in the end
not how you perform just now
another one perfectionism is killing your happiness
it will keep you cramped and insane your whole life
perfectionism is based on the obsessive belief
that if you run carefully enough
hitting every step just right
you don't have to die
the truth is you'll die anyway
and a lot of people who aren't even looking at their feet
are going to do a whole lot better than you
and have a whole lot more fun while they're doing it.
That's Anne Lamott.
Final one.
You should back yourself,
even if you're at the start of your journey.
Vincent Van Gogh said,
if I'm worth anything later, I'm worth something now,
for wheat is wheat,
even if people think it is grass in the beginning.
All of that together is just a little,
panoply little collage of how pointless worrying and overthinking are and maybe one of those
hits maybe it doesn't there's a lot there um practically one thing that certainly has worked
uh is scheduling worry time so i guess this is the bonus the fucking bonus round at the end um
i think it's dale carnegie who wrote uh how to stop worrying and start living so i
much less popular book than his big one. But in it, he has this idea of worry time. I think
worrying is not necessarily bad and it does serve a function, right? In order to come up with
solutions, we need to think about the future and thinking about potential negative consequences
can help us to stop them from happening, to see them. It allows us to play out our potential
futures without having to live them by, you know, project them in our minds. The problem is when the
overthinking and the worry is chronic. It's all the time. It creeps into our lives
when it shouldn't do. And worry time is at least a practical. It feels like a sort of CBT-inspired
type strategy that allows you, when the worry comes up through the week, let's say you've got
Sunday, 3pm till 5 p.m. scheduled for worry time. I guess that's quite a lot of worrying.
3 p.m. to 4 p.m. Tuesday.
morning in the gym worry comes up it is nice to as that thing arrives not have to run away from it
not have to deal with it at the moment not go into it and obsess about it but to think there it is
that's that's good maybe i note it down in my phone must remember to worry about blood tests or
whatever it might be and but that's not now it's not when i think about it now i've i'm going to
deal with you i'm not running away i'm accepting but it's just not your time
right now in the same way as you don't try and sleep when you're awake or you don't try and go
to work when you're at the gym like okay there are times for things and by delineating that especially
if you're the sort of organized calendar type person i think this helps at least in part
speaking of the calendar stuff when i first started modern wisdom i was obsessed with
why life felt like it was going so quickly and how to slow it down. So I decided to revisit the topic
recently. Why does some days feel like years and some years feel like days? As we get older,
life feels like it's moving faster and faster. We look back on a year and can't really remember
where it went. Months start to pass like minutes and we begin to feel so helpless against the passage of time
that it almost seems as if we're an observer of our lives,
not a participant anymore.
The answer to slowing down time is simpler than you think.
The first thing to know is that no matter how boring the Zoom call,
exciting the holiday, or old you are,
time always passes at exactly the same rate for you.
Shock, horror, I know.
You have the same number of hours in the day as you ever have,
and they are always moving at the same pace.
even if you were circling a black hole or moving near the speed of light, your experience of time
remains the same. One second is one second always. So, if this is the case, why do we feel like time
changes speed? Well, there is a difference between present time and remembered time. Your experience
of time differs in the moment versus when you recall it. Your present time will all
always remain at the same speed, but your remembered time can vary widely.
So, when we say that time is speeding up, we don't mean it actually passed more quickly,
but that it seems to have passed more quickly when we recall it.
It's not that week went so quickly, but I don't recall what I did during that week.
Memory is our way of reliving our past experiences and re-experiencing time.
we remember our time with respect to what we were doing, where it was, who we were with,
and the emotions that we had. So here's the first key insight. The more memories you have from a past
experience, the more that that experience gets expanded in time. Think back to a holiday you went
on five years ago. Even though it was a long time ago, you will probably still be able to recall
a lot of details, making it seem like it lasted for longer and that time moved more slowly
for that week. So, if time is memory and we want more time, then what we really want is more memories.
But this still doesn't explain why our recollection of time speeds up with age until you
consider why memories are made. Your brain is lazy. It wants to do as little work as possible
and conserve as much energy as it can.
This is why it likes routines,
habits, and thought patterns,
because once it's done that thing,
a few times,
it needs to think less and less about doing it again.
The thing is, when you're young,
almost everything is new information.
This is the first time you've been to the park,
or school, or swam in the big pool,
or kissed a girl, or been on a boat.
Your brain is constantly recording.
Think about how much you can remember
from the first day you moved to where you live now, compared with any day from the last month.
Or think about what happened on your first ever driving lesson. I'm guessing you can recall it quite a lot.
Perhaps even the route that you took, the car that you drove, yet if you try to remember the experiences
in your car from last Monday, you might not even know if you drove it at all. This is the most important
lesson to know about slowing down time. Your subjective experience of time is based on your
memories and the best way to ensure that your brain remembers what you're doing is with two things,
novelty and intensity. When something new or intense happens, your brain doesn't know what it
needs to remember. So it just holds on to all of it. It's never encountered this before. So it doesn't
know if it will need this information in future. Therefore, it starts recording what's happening.
This is why holidays are such a good example to show how time and memories are linked, because
there's lots of new things and lots of intensity happening.
I took a trip to Africa in 2018, and I can still remember the shape of the worn leather
shoes that the Hotel Porter had on, and the ornithology book that he was carrying, and the
sound of his feet on the steps down to the hotel room.
This is the holiday paradox.
Time flies while you're having fun, but feels long in retrospect.
and as we age, our adult life gets into routines where we do the same actions day after
day after day. We drive the same route to work, we speak to the same people, we even have
the same thoughts. We allow ourselves to be dominated by monotonous routines, passively resistance,
and habituated thought patterns. The TLDR is that routines compress time.
Habitual behaviors are processed with less cortical effort, meaning less attention and fewer
restored episodic memories, childhood is rich with firsts, which become rarer with age.
This is novelty saturation theory, the idea that as we age, we experience fewer new things,
so our brain stops encoding as many detailed memories, which makes time feel like it's passing
faster. And this is the uncomfortable truth. As we get older, days move quickly because we can't
remember them. And we don't remember our days because we haven't done anything memorable with
them. Our days are forgettable, therefore we forget them. This is why I hate it when people say
that's just the way I am and always will be. To me, that is someone who has internalized the
monotony of their thought patterns so deeply that they literally identify with them. Monotony is the
enemy of a well-remembered life. So, in order to slow time down,
You have to give your brain a reason to pay attention.
Leading a full life means having lots of varied experiences that will later be memorable.
This means you need to start saying yes to more new things and know to more of the same things.
Even if you've never wanted to try salsa dancing or yoga or an open mic comedy night,
saying yes will guarantee that you create some novel and potentially intense memories.
Sure, it might be easier to stay on the couch instead of going out.
But you know that you won't recall a single thing if you spend yet another night
watching Netflix, whereas you will have tons of memories if you go and do something new,
which in retrospect makes time pass more slowly.
Doing novel and intense things is entirely within your control.
Allow yourself to be immersed in the things that you spend your time doing.
Regularly plan new experiences.
Talk to different people.
Say yes to adventures whenever you can.
walk the dog on a different route, visit a new town, eat at a fresh cafe.
These are all memory investments that future you will be able to draw dividends from.
Each day, you can ask yourself the question, what did I do today that will stand out in my memory?
And the more that you can answer this question clearly, the slower your time will move.
eventually you are going to be looking back on your life
the choice is between viewing a beautiful varied art gallery
stretching as far as the eye can see
or a grey monotonous hallway
peppered with the ghosts of TikTok dances and Netflix series
if you make your life memorable
you will remember it
I think
I got frustrated
because I wanted to make progress that was based around routine
because I understood that it was very important for me.
But I also had this realization so early on
that felt in conflict with my desire to make progress.
So I think another tension,
a lot of the conversations today have been about tension,
another tension is how do I lean into routine to capture the upsides of predictable progress
whilst also blending that with the variation that's needed in order to give me memory
dividends, to expand my life, to make time feel like it's moving more slowly.
Difficult one. It's a difficult thing to balance, but it is important.
All right, next one. You were a different character.
character in the mind of each person who knows you because their impression of you is made of
the bare bones of what they've seen fleshed out by their knowledge of themselves. That's from
Gwinda Bogle. So the lonely chapter has another perspective to it, which is, as you grow, you don't
fit in with your friends, but this means that they don't fit in with you either. This causes a reaction
from their side too. The hardest part of changing yourself isn't just improving your own habits
It's escaping the people who keep handing you your old costume.
Others don't just remember who you were.
They enforce it, which is why reinvention so often feels like trying to break out of a prison that you can't see.
Psychologists call this dynamic an object relation.
So when people interact with you, they're not engaging with you in your full living complexity.
They're dealing with the version of you that exists.
in their head. A simplified character built from fragments of memory and colored by their own
projections. In object relations theory, an object isn't a thing. It's just a internalized image
of another person. We don't just carry people as they are. We carry a mental sketch,
which is why if you make a radical change, you'll usually meet resistance. Your transformation
destabilizes the representation that the people around you are attached to. So they try to nudge
you back into the familiar role that they know.
Charles Horton Cooley called this the looking glass self.
We come to know ourselves by seeing our reflection in the eyes of other people.
And if those mirrors keep reflecting the old you, it's hard to step into a new one.
In social psychology, self-verification theory shows that people prefer interactions that
confirm what they already believe about themselves and about you.
If you disrupt this script, you introduce friction.
In this one study, participants with poor self-image chose to interact with people who
criticised them rather than praise them, meaning that even people with low self-esteem often
prefer others to treat them in ways that confirm their pessimistic self-view, because
negative consistency feels safer than optimistic unfamiliarity.
If that is true for how we see ourselves, imagine how much other people cling to their picture of you.
Before his conversion, St. Augustine was notorious for chasing pleasure, indulgence and distraction,
and after his dramatic turn to faith, he struggled to convince old friends that he was no longer the same man.
They resisted not just out of skepticism, but because the new Augustine didn't fit the story they had of him.
In Fitzgerald's novel, Jay Gatsby began life as James Gatz, a poor farm boy desperate to
escape his origins. He tried to reinvent himself into a dazzling millionaire, but no matter how
hard he works at it, the people around him reduce him back to the upstart outsider.
His reinvention collapsed under the weight of their collective refusal to update their vision
of him. Nelson Mandela started as a fiery revolutionary against apartheid, and when he
walked out of prison after 27 years. His followers expected him to emerge hardened and vengeful,
and instead he embodied reconciliation. But that reinvention only truly stuck once he stepped onto
the world stage, far beyond the circles that had known the old Mandela, that David Bowie
began as a struggling musician in London, trying to make a name for himself in a conventional
scene. His breakthrough was constant self-reinvention. He does Ziggy Stardust, the thin white Duke,
and tons more. But each transformation often required leaving behind one circle, one city, one
audience, because the people who knew him too well couldn't help but cling to the previous Bowie.
St. Paul had once been Saul, infamous for persecuting Christians with unrelenting zeal. After his
conversion, he became their furious advocate. But many believers couldn't trust him. They couldn't
stop seeing the old soul, and it took years of travel and new communities before his new
identity as Paul was accepted. And in ordinary life, this script repeats as well. The friend who
quits drinking was once the reliable partner in crime, but then newfound sobriety unsettles the
group and throws everyone else's bad habits into harsh contrast. The shy colleague, who becomes
confident was once predictable in their quietness, so their assertiveness now reads as arrogance.
The young adult, who comes home at Christmas, was once an awkward teenager. However, no matter
how much they've grown, the family still insists on infantilizing them. The podcaster,
who had a shaved head for five years, gets a ton of stick for having a perm after he grows
his hair out, despite his curls totally being natural and suiting his face and being quite a
masculine haircut if you think about it for a while.
TLDR. Many people don't like you because making positive changes is effortful to keep up with
and it's threatening to their shortcomings. So they dissuade you from doing it, which is why
meaningful change so often requires escaping your environment. Change isn't just about
building a new self. It's about escaping the gravitational pole of the selves that exist in
people's minds. It is odd to look at the lonely chapter from the other side, right? Okay,
I got this thing. And I am compelled to go back to the old patterns, the old habits, the old ways
of thinking. I'm going to do this thing because it's going to make me feel more accepted by my
friends. Acceptance, it makes me feel more accepted by my friends. I am struggling to relate to them,
but that means that they are struggling to relate to you. And they have their own motives and motivations
also. Like, they are not passive participants in this. They're changing as well. And the change that
they have is typically trying to pull you back to the old vision that they've got of you, because
it's effortful. And maybe it gives a little bit more empathy around why people are sort of
feels like they're stuck in their old ways a little bit. Maybe it helps us to understand why
we get less support for the changes that we want to make
than we might prefer.
But either way, it's certainly kind of, yeah,
the, if the lonely chapter feels a little bit
like you're being trapped inside of a glass orb,
this is what it looks like peering in from the outside.
So I thought that was quite cool.
All right, next one.
Humans have an asymmetry of errors.
We over-index exceptions.
We use the things that break the pattern
we've come to expect as a serious learning opportunity.
But we tend to only learn much faster
from errors of commission,
which is things that we do,
not errors of omission,
which is things that we don't do.
You only learn the sting of misplaced trust
when someone betrays you,
but you refuse to trust
and miss out on love,
or partnership, or help.
The loss doesn't leave a scar to remind you.
It's obvious when quitting for a new
career. Turns out to be a mistake. It's far less obvious when staying quietly drains years of your
life that you'll never get back. We terrify ourselves with the thought of leaving a relationship and
ending up lonelier. We almost never see the equal danger, which is staying forever with someone
who never makes us feel fully alive. We recoil from the humiliation of saying something stupid
in a meeting, but we don't clock the cost of never raising our hand at all. We treat one bad
investment is catastrophic, but rarely tally the unseen compounding of never investing in the
first place. We remember the awkward rejection that came from asking someone out, but never named
the decades-long regret of not asking at all. We dramatize the scandal of a friend's failed new
habits, but forget the corrosive damage of decades of drift and inaction. We exaggerate the
embarrassment of publishing a bad piece of writing, but ignore the slower tragedy of never
writing at all. We catastrophize the risks of starting a company that fails, but ignore the
the equally large risk of letting someone else succeed at launching the idea you had a decade ago.
We obsess over the fallout of saying yes to the wrong opportunity, but rarely notice the quiet
erosion of habitually saying no. History makes the same mistake. Kodak actually builds
the first digital camera in 1975, an engineer, goes and shows executives a clunky prototype
that could store photos on a cassette tape. Instead of running with it, they shelved the idea
afraid that it would cannibalize their film business for 30 years they sat on the future.
Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012. Their failure wasn't a wrong bet. It was never placing the
bet at all. Darwin had worked out natural selection by 1838 but kept the idea in a draw for 20 years,
two decades because he was too cautious to publish it. It took another biologist, Alfred Russell Wallet,
independently discovering the same thing to jolt him into action. So evolution nearly stayed hidden
because of hesitation. World War I was even at the mercy of this. After the assassination in Sarajevo,
Europe still had off-ramps. Austria could have paused before declaring war on Serbia.
Germany could have told Austria to stand down. Britain could have made its red lines crystal clear.
No one acted decisively and everyone waited for someone else.
and that hesitation turned a local killing into a world war.
The TLDR here is we remember the noise of bad choices,
but we rarely count the cost of silence.
Commission teaches lessons in days
and omission teaches lessons in decades,
usually too late to apply them.
I'm not saying you won't regret the obvious agony
of jobs you quit, loves you lost, words you blurted out.
I'm just saying you need to pay.
pay more attention to the unseen pains of jobs you never left, loves that you never dared,
and words that you didn't speak. We wince at mistakes that make noise, but it is silent
mistakes that do the real damage. Errors of commission bruise the ego, but errors of omission
starve the soul. I love this asymmetry. I see it a lot in my life. I see it everywhere,
that we just assume that making a mistake has to be an act.
Making a mistake could be not acting.
And yeah, I don't know how you compel people into seeing,
I suppose part of it is the timeline on risk, right,
that protracted suffering over a long time,
you don't feel the risk ever sort of come into land
at one moment or if it does it's sort of down the line you're in a relationship you think this
this just isn't working should really end it okay that is an end point well how bad is it
you know there's like good days and there's bad days and maybe there's more bad than good and
I'm not so fide up and what am I losing by not being here but at least at no point does it all
come into you know there's no there's no like ground zero moment for it and I
think fear keeps us trapped in this way, an awful lot. So, yeah, that is certainly something
to motivate people more. It would be a really good idea. All right. That is, I think the longest
solo episode I've ever done, nearly two hours. I really hope that you loved it. Again,
episode 999. It's wild. I started this in my bedroom in the northeast of the UK and on Monday this week
you will see me and Matthew McCona has sit down on a huge video wall and talk for a couple of hours
and you guys have changed my life with the device in your pocket. So whether you've been here,
here for a minute or seven years. Thanks. I'll see you next time.