Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin - Who Is Winning the Trade War? With Michael Batnick (Ritholtz Wealth Management)

Episode Date: August 7, 2025

Today Nicole taps into market insights with Michael Batnick, Managing Partner at Ritholtz Wealth Management and cohost of The Compound and Friends podcast—alongside Money Rehab regular, Josh Brown. Nicole and Michael dive into whether the fallout from Trump-era tariffs and the “TACO Trade” has run its course, and where interest rates might be headed next. Plus, in a round of Bullish or Bearish, Michael shares his takes on some of the market’s buzziest names, including Palantir, UPS and American Eagle. For more Michael, subscribe to The Compound and Friends This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. As part of the IRA Match Program, Public Investing will fund a 1% match of: (a) all eligible IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers made to a Public IRA; and (b) all eligible contributions made to a Public IRA up to the account’s annual contribution limit. The matched funds must be kept in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time. See full terms ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.  *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.

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It sounds so obvious, but it hadn't really hit her until that moment. Her day-to-day spending habits weren't just keeping up with the Joneses. They were affecting her future. So she came over, we talked about it, we did some credit hygiene. And if you need some of this, too, I've got something that might help. Chime. With Chime's secure Credit Builder Visa credit card, you can build your credit history with everyday purchases and regular on-time payments. There are no credit checks, no annual fees, and no interest. Just a smarter way to build credit using the money you set aside. Plus, you get access to credit tracking tools and personalized tips, so the process feels way less overwhelming. Make everyday purchases count with Chime's secured credit builder visa credit card. Get started today

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impact your credit score. Results may vary. Go to chime. I'm Nicole Lapin, the only financial expert you don't need a dictionary to understand. It's time for money rehab. Yesterday I gave you a poll's check on the economy. Today, I'm giving you a pulse check on the markets. And to do that, I'm joined by Michael Batnik, managing partner at Ridholt's Wealth Management and co-host of the Compound and Friends podcast. Michael's co-host, by the way, is a money rehab homie, Josh Brown.

Today, we talk about whether the negative outcomes of the Trump tariffs and the so-called taco trade are over. and where interest rates are headed. We also play bullish or bearish, and Michael tells me his take on some of the busiest stocks of the day, from Palantir to American Eagle. Let's get into it. Michael Batnik.

Welcome to Money Rehab. Thank you so much for having me. I'm excited to do this. I just spill the seltzer, so forgive me. I'm just drying my seltzer. But go ahead. Very excited. I was wondering what you were doing with like a pink blanket,

a pink baby blanket. What is it? Don't ask. Okay. You're also in the middle of moving. So that's stressful. Thank you for taking the time. Of course. Thank you. The talk. Very excited. While you're moving from a 3% mortgage to 2 a 6% mortgage. I'm trying to stimulate the economy. There's a lot of bad articles. I'm trying to do my part. That's rough. How does that feel? Well, it feels good because. Hang more in interest. Yeah, a lot more in interest. And I am very proud of myself that I am able to make this decision. because on paper, in the vacuum of money, it makes no sense to give up this 3% mortgage. But I'm doing it because I want to be in a house on the water.

And so that's what it is. Okay. These are high class problems. Well, moving over to the water with a higher mortgage means that you're doing really well on Wall Street, clearly. So let's start with just a pulse check of what's going on. How are you feeling about the markets right now? All right.

How am I feeling? Let me do this. So a lot of conversations around the stock market are where is it going? What does this mean? What's going to happen next? I have an opinion like everybody else, but they're worthless because nobody can consistently see the future. Spoiler alert.

No, but it doesn't stop us from wanting to know. Spoiler alert. But here's what I'll do. I will describe what's happening today because I think I'm pretty good at that. And then we can try and unpack and interpret the meaning of the market today. So right now, it's a bold. market. Today, we should say we're talking on Tuesday. Today, the market is a bit down. It's Tuesday, August 5th. And we are a shred below the all-time high that has ever been

printed in the history of the galaxy. So things are pretty good. People are feeling excited. There is a lot of speculation, whether you listen to the earnest cause of Robin Hood or CME, which is where a lot of the futures and derivative contracts are traded, or you listen to Goldman or whoever in terms of like what their clients are doing, they're all saying the same thing. It's money making season and people are getting excited and they're speculating with shorter and shorter time horizons. Even ARC is rejoining the party. Kathy Wood. Kathy Wood. Kathy Wood's famous ARKKK, which was the postal child of the 2020 euphoria. She had a record setting inflow the other day. I think it was $800 million or whatever it was. It was a lot of money. And how long

this lasts, of course, nobody knows, but, you know, there's a, there's some, some yellow signs flashing. Right. How long does that last? Because everybody thinks they're a genius when the market is up. And by the way, we should mention that the market hits a new high, what, every 19 days? So when you hear it's like a new high in the galaxy or into galactically or whatever, you know, right now we're at all, all time highs. But markets hit all time highs all the time. So I think there is the human tendency to get nervous at all-time highs because we remember some of the bad times. And we think, like, is this as good as it's going to get? Should I sell now? But what we also know is that if you were to invest at an all-time high, on average, one year later, one three and five

years later, in fact, the returns are higher than on average for investing at any other random day. And I think that's counterintuitive. But when you think about why stocks are hitting all-time highs, not always, maybe not today, but generally, it's because things are pretty good. And things don't generally turn from pretty good to, holy shit, the world's ending overnight. Now, of course, sometimes it does. Sometimes you don't know all-time high and then look out below. But generally, the market is not that dumb that it's not, that it's making all-time highs for no reason. But then of course, like like any, any other time, something can come off and hit us off our axis. And by definition, that's what risk is. And it's ever

present. It never goes away. And again, by definition, we can't know what that is because it's unknowable. Because we're not psychic. Let me tell you a funny story. So when my now husband first told me, he loved me, I, the first thing I said back, was, I think there's going to be an earthquake. I was like, oh, my God. I'm such a weirdo, right? Because I thought, oh, my gosh, something bad is about to happen. Like, it can't be this good.

Are you in California? Yes. Okay. And I remember earthquakes. And so I'm like, no, no, no, it's too good. Like something, the other shoe is going to drop. Like something bad is going to happen, which is kind of what you're talking about with the markets right now.

Like, if we look back to earlier this year and, you know, the time, if you're listening to the show, buy the big. dip a lot of people did, but now money is waiting on the sidelines for that to potentially happen again because the market being at all-time highs means the market's really expensive too. So what would you say to somebody who's waiting with their shackles on the sideline for something to go on sale again? Okay. That is hard advice to give, but I would say you need to have some semblance of a plan. It doesn't need to be the best plan or, you know, rock science with all these fancy equations. But if you're like, if you are sitting on too much

cash and you feel like a dumb, dumb, and maybe you're feeling a little bit of anxiety or FOMO, take a beat, right? Like the market always gives you another opportunity to get in. But I would say that like just blindly waiting for a pullback is horrific, a horrific thing to do because what if it's 1995 and we just don't get that opportunity? And the market is 20% higher a year from now. And you only had a 3% pullback. And you're like, Now what do I do? All right. So we can't control whether market's going to go. So just maybe like something as rudimentary as this, every month or every other month for the next year, I will put in one quarter of how much I ultimately want to invest and just stick to it. Or there are programs out there

where you can dollar cost average or you can automate the investments. I am always on the side of automating. Automate, automate, automate, automate. Because I get scared like, everybody else. I get fearful one others are fearful. Nobody doesn't feel those emotions. Like, we are all human beings and we all get scared together and we all get very excited together. And so the best thing that you can do to sever that part of your brain from your wallet is to automate your investments. You know what I've been doing that actually your homie Josh Brown told me about and he wrote about, I think, in his book, was to do limit orders on things that you feel like you want, but they're too expensive. And so when the limit orders hit, that means the markets

down. Sometimes I know the market's down when some of these limit orders of ridiculous things that I've put, like, I would buy, you know, whatever. I'm just saying, hypothetically, invidia, if it was 140 or something like that. So when these hit, it means the market is dropping. But also it means like I'm getting these things that I thought I missed out on. I love that. I love that. Yeah, Josh is a big proponent of that. And I think it's a great approach. You put in these ridiculously low bids. And if they get hit, wonderful. So you're basically saying that if we're in 1995, flashback, holy cow, things could continue to go up. And every time you're not putting money to work, if they're not in limit orders, which I did argue with him,

that's not putting money to work. That's still waiting on the sidelines. And if that does, those don't hit, then that's not great either. So fundamentals were still adding jobs. Fewer than expected. Let's get into the jobs hoopla. So 73,000 jobs were added. The bigger issue here is all these revisions. So the numbers from May, the numbers from June were revised wildly weaker than originally reported. I think it was 132 in May to 42. That was the downward revision. And then 179 in June to 11,000. Like, that's a swing of 250,000 jobs. That's a two largest downward revision since the pandemic. What's going on? And then President Trump kicked out the BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner because of it. We are in the perfect storm of Wall Street narratives right now because simultaneously, we had those job numbers and a generally softening economy, which isn't, which isn't in and of itself the end of the world. The economy can slow down and then it can re-accelerate. Just because you slow down,

doesn't mean that we're going to crash or anything like that. It's cyclical. It's noisy. But we had that really big job down with revision, as you mentioned. We also, the labor market is softening and 70% of the economy relies on consumer spending. So there's the push and pull of what's happening with the economy and spending versus, well, what matters to the stock market, now, it's all about hyperscalers and how much they're spending on CAPEX. And the contribution to GDP of what they're doing was actually more than the increase in consumer spending. So that is the big question today is can the stock market survive a slowing consumer? And is it enough? Like can the weight of the stock market world rest on the shoulders of Microsoft and

Amazon and meta and Google and how much money they're spending and buying from Nvidia? And that is the, you know, $4 trillion question. And what do you think? I don't. I mean, this is boring. I genuinely don't know. I am very excited to see. I think that some of the numbers are starting to get a little crazy.

So, Nvidia, for example, is about to cross the entire market capitalization of the industrial sector. and these are not small companies like Caterpillar, Honeywell, GE, whatever, these are not small companies as well as healthcare, all of healthcare, every single Pfizer and Bristol Myers and Merck and whatever, whatever, all of them. Now, the market isn't dumb. The market doesn't just give away money or ascribe multiples that make no sense. If we are, and I should forget about if we are on the precipice of an insane technological revolution. And I think people are too quick to think back to the last time this happened. They think about the internet bubble.

They think about this ending badly. And are there like similarities? Yeah, sure. I mean, it's not crazy. But is it going to go the same way where these companies are going to lose 90% of their market cap because we overinvested and we discounted too far into the future? sure people like to talk about like Cisco really did grow 20% a year for 20 years after the dot-com bubble burst, but the stock still got killed because the market was pricing in whatever, 40% growth into infinity. I think people over index too much on the recent past. But this is, this is it. This is the only thing that matters, like really and truly, because outside the Mag 7 names, earnings aren't growing with that quickly. And the stock market, the price of the stock

market, it does follow earnings. It's not alchemy. It's not rocket science. At the end of the day, these are businesses, and the price follows the business. Yeah, it's so much pressure for seven companies. What about the 493 others? And if you're saying that they contribute to GDP, let's talk nerdy data for a second. If there's so much downward revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, like how do we believe? any data that's coming out there. How do we believe the GDP print? Okay. So a lot of this stuff is based on survey. There are a bazillion inputs. And there was a guy who responded to Tramath. I think his name was Andrew Cohn, but I'm on positive. And he's like, listen, dude,

there are hundreds of economists who work here. They are not trying to lose their job. They are trying to get the data accurate. And this is a 30, billion dollar economy, and they're trying to get it right, and revisions are nothing new. And I do think is it a very dangerous precedent of, I don't like what the data says, let's get somebody else in charge. I think that is not a good thing for the fabric of our society. For sure, they're constantly and chronically underfunded, right? So even if you get someone else in there, how is it going to be different?

Oh, I have no idea. I don't know what the plan is. But I'll tell you this. I have a suspicion that we're going to do that NF non-farm payrolls, what would they? They were 73,000 in August. I'm suspecting that data is going to get better. I mean, these revisions are crazy.

Like, this is their one job. Why are these revisions such a huge swing? Like, I get the margin of error and the revisions and all that stuff. And we've had this forever as long as they've existed. So this person that I'm referencing, this person that I'm referencing, he did a study looking into the distribution of revisions just to make sure that they're not biased one way or the other either to the upside. They're chronically over-optimistic or pessimistic. And it looks like a normal bell curve where it really does wash out. It is noisy. But yeah, it is. I don't I don't have

great insights as to why there's not like real-time data. Maybe all of the data needs to move to the blockchain. I have no idea. Honestly, that's like above my prey, Gerard. Hold on to your wallets. Money rehab will be right back. And now for some more money rehab. A big story now coming out was the Fed's decision to keep rate steady. Do you think all of the craziness going on with the BLS could impact the Fed to cut more? Is that really the underlying story here?

Well, I don't think Powell will be bothered by what President Trump decides to deal with these commissioners, but the market is pricing in more rate cuts, which is probably a combination of the fact that Powell's term is almost over. And also, in my opinion, and I'm not an economist, I think the Fed should be cutting. I think that one of the key pillars of this economy is the housing market. And the housing market is absolutely frozen. If you look at existing home sales, there's. there's no activity going on because people are stuck. They can't afford to move. They're stuck in their mortgage. And that's a huge part of the economy. And so we're very lucky. Yeah, they're not like you. Right. Going from a 3% mortgage or 6% mortgage. So I think rates should be lower. I think the economy is also slowing down. The two years significantly below Fed funds rates. I think all indications are that we are a little bit too restrictive. And I think that people tell, Michael, what are you talking about dumbass? Look at fart coin and all this other like speculation. That is on the margin. And that is not, I hate to break it to you, that is not what the Fed is looking at

to determine the appropriate level of interest rates. Yeah, I cannot imagine Jay Powell looking at fart corn as one of his important indicators. No, it's not an input. Believe you not. But, you know, like you and I have seen a lot of, you know, earthquakes. This is not our first rodeo at, you know, the ups and downs of the market. When you cut rates to rock bottom levels, you know, the nostalgia that people have for that, it worries me because when rates were that low, like, the economy was hanging by a threat. Like, those were emergency measures. It's not funsies to just take rates all the way down so that, you know, we can stimulate

an already healthy economy. When you do stuff like that, the economy is weak. It's sick. It's not healthy. Wait, what's funzies? I don't know what that word is. For funsies? Yeah.

I don't know what the right level is. I don't know if it's 3.5% or 3.5% or three and a quarter, whatever. But I think we're too tight. And I totally agree with you. A lot of the behavior that we saw in the ZERP era of zero interest rates were pretty gnarly and dangerous. There was a lot of economic distortions. I think the consumer benefited a lot from it because Silicon Valley and a lot of these venture backed funds were funding a lot of non-profitable ventures, like Uber being one of them and Tesla, not Tesla. A lot of others that like the consumer was a huge. beneficiary of, and that is, that's big, it is off. And I think that's probably for the best.

Agreed on that. You guys had an episode last week talking about Wall Street, basically saying that Trump is winning the trade war. The taco trade is over if somebody, again, is sitting on the sidelines with some cash, thinking that we're going to see another dip with the uptick in tariffs again. What do you think is going to happen there? Can you talk me through the case that Trump is winning and the taco Trump always chickens out is so I think the the talk last week and honestly like I don't know about you I'm sort of over tariffs just in terms of like not that they don't matter not over not that they don't matter at all and they absolutely matter to a lot of small businesses so I'm not trying to minimize it I just mean in the general discourse like I personally am tired of

talking about what is he going to do will he or won't he once a lot of these measures and levels are actually there and we have some data that we can revise and revise again and then get to the bottom of it. Then I will be curious to see what the impacts are. But it seems like so far the market is looking past it because what is driving the market earnings and certainly the narrative, it's not anybody who's reliant on steel or or whatever other imports are going to be tariffed. It's it's the mag seven. And that's it. That's all the market cares about right now. And it won't be that way forever, guarantee it. But for right now, that's what matters.

Yeah, but closing these trade deficits is bringing in trillions of dollars to the U.S. It is? For funzies, for free. Okay, maybe it is. Is that a stimulus that's not a stimulus check? Okay, so the federal deficit, these are taxes. It's a tax on consumer. And so the more liquidity that you take out of consumers' pockets, like, I don't know how that's

stimulative. And so the deficit goes from whatever trillion to a little bit fewer billions. Like, I don't, I don't know. I am not one of those people that are particularly concerned about the deficit. I think a lot of that is fear mongering or a basic misunderstanding of like how the economy works. We've almost always had a deficit and it almost always has never mattered. Okay. So why are you over tariffs, even though, you know, pharma tariffs could now go up to 250%. Like all this is a big deal and has ramifications on. Oh, it is a big deal. I'm just saying for me personally, as somebody that is commenting on the market, I don't

care that much because I am not an expert on what the levels are going to be, what the ramifications are going to be. Like, that is just not my beat and I just don't care to talk about it that much. It's not that like I don't think it matters. Of course it matters. Okay, what do you want to talk about then? Like, what if we not focused on? Is there something that has been overshadowed by all the tariff news, by all the data

the news, what should we be focusing on and taking a closer look at? What is capturing your heart and attention? All right. Let me give you an answer or non-answer. My non-answer is nothing is overshadowed. There is so much noise out there that if there is a story, it will be reported on. One of the things that's been popping up lately is like there's just too much money. The upper class has too much money. Airport lounges are full. Three million is the new one million, and whatever it is, I think one of the stories that is perhaps a little bit uncovered because I just don't know that's like that sexy or exciting, first time homebuyers are getting royally fucked. If you were saving money because you used to think that a house that you wanted

cost $600,000 and you were working for years with your partner to put away $150,000 to get into the house, and now all of the sudden you have to put away $250,000 and the mortgage payment is out of reach, I think those people got a super duper raw deal. And that is maybe not spoken about enough, but I think that the distortions in the housing market are seriously sending shit haywire. So meaning what? What does that mean? Let's like pull the thread on it. All right. One of the things that we've been talking about, and I don't know how to quantify this, because the stock market is so large that these dollars that I'm talking about are a drop in the bucket. But we have gotten a lot of emails from people that are tired of sending in a money

market fund for a house that they're never going to be able to afford and are tired of watching the S&P 500 compounded 15% while they do that. And so a lot of these people are taking money out of what would be a very conservative bucket and putting into the stock market. but what's wrong with that what if they're then renting and then they're making more returns in the market than they would have with their house well so that is that is a good question what is wrong with that nothing in fact i think it's phenomenal that somebody's like this is the best thing ever i had a hundred fifty thousand dollars that was sitting in cash that would have been 151,000 and now it's a hundred ninety five thousand i love that i think that's incredible but a house is not an

investment, it's where you live. It's where you raise your family. And if you are getting frozen out of that opportunity because you can't afford to, I think that stinks. And I really feel for those people who are tired of being in a 900 square foot apartment with a baby who might want a second and can't afford to do so because their parents don't have a $200,000 check for them. Like, I feel for those people big time. And I don't know how many of them there are, but there's 70 million, millennials, whatever the number is. And I don't know what portion of those people are waiting to get into a house. But it's like not a small number. You can also rent a house. And it doesn't mean that if you're

renting an apartment or a house, that it's not a home. Depending on where you are true. Like on the south shore of Long Island, which is the most desirable place to live. I'm kidding. There's just like there's no homes for a rent in my town. Like there might be one. So depending on where you, listen, if you could rent a house, I am not one of these people who thinks that renting is throwing away money. renting is putting a roof over your head. And that's totally fine. Yeah. So I am, I am not one of those people who are like, you need to buy a house or you're pissing money away to the landlord. Like, I do not ascribe to that view at all. I have a fancy story. Can I tell you a quick story? Always. So I was at the bank today, depositing a check, which is something I do very rarely.

Such an important rich dude. Stop. So I deposit. How much was the check? It was $1,500. Okay. And I wrote it out to cash. You don't have a mobile deposit? This is, all. All right. So we have a family cabin and it is not glamorous. It is fucking disgusting. It is a hunting cabin that my stepdad bought in the 90s. It is gross. And so I have a joint account with my two stepbrothers and I needed to put some money into the account. So I went in there. I wrote out a check for $1,500, wrote it out to cash. And the guy's looking at me and I'm looking at him. I'm like, yes. He said, you have the cash? I said, yeah, got the cash. And he's like looking at me. me, we're staring each other. He said, sir, do you have a, do you have a check for me? And I'm like, oh, oh, oh, my bad. So I just, I just felt the deposit slip. And I was like, here, I want $15 a hundred dollars in my account. And he's like, buddy, I need some money. That's how it works. Like, yeah, my, my bank skills have atrophy big time. I mean, it's kind of impressive that you, like, actually went to the bank and filled out a

deposit slip. Talked about marketing back to 1995. Let's go. Let's do some nostalgia. All right, our game ready yes let's go bullish or bearish okay i need to explain the rules to you stop it i need to explain to the audience it's not investment advice i am registered i can't be giving advice but let's have fun understand this is for educational purposes only for funzies let's go for funzies united help okay so i don't know that i've ever seen a dow stock lose two-thirds of its value in a straight line while the market was at an all-time high. Have you ever seen a Dow CEO get shot on the street? No, I have not seen that either.

This is very unusual. So without knowing anything about the company, so what are you talking about? Like the next 20% higher or lower or hold for a year or sell for a year? What do we think? Are you bullish or bearish on the stock? Like, this buyer is, yeah, remember? You didn't want the rules, but that's what the rules of this.

Buy it with a tight stop. How about that? Around what? Recent lows. So I would, if I had to pick. one thing, I would buy it here and I would put a stop at like 230. Tesla. I would never sell, I would never like doubt Elon or his shareholder base.

I think one of his superpowers among many is getting people to believe whatever he says. And I think that the pay package having a cloud over the stock is behind them, which is definitely good instills confidence. I do not own the stock. I never have owned the stock, but I would be more bullish than bear on Tesla. Or bullets and embarrassed on Tesla. I mean, the GROC integration is pretty cool. Pretty cool. So how about this? All of the bad news as far as the car company is concerned, nobody gives a shit at all. It's all about autonomous and robots and whatever. And it looks like

if anybody can do it, maybe it could be him. So, yeah, they're licensing out the auto driving capability to other car companies. The taxi thing is going to happen soon. My husband's excited about that. some passive income for us to use a dad joke he's got the Midas touch is it a dad joke if a woman says it or is it a mom joke no it's a dad joke honestly i agree Pfizer what a piece of shit this is oh it's looking less piece of shitty maybe maybe that's the bottom maybe that maybe that is the bottom yeah i guess you can own this it is that so i am looking at the charts i am a technically inclined person i know a lot of people think technical analysis is voodoo bullshit it's not it's supply and demand you are measuring the appetitive buyers and sellers.

And I think that I'm very happy to see technical analysis getting less shit in the mainstream media than it used to be. Like people used to laugh about it. I don't think they are anymore. Anyway, enough for it clearing. So like technical analysis, basically you're looking at charts, fundamental analysis. You're looking at, you know, info from the company and earnings and revenue. So fundamental analysis used to be like a serious business.

Like I'm a businessman and I look at the fundamentals. All right. I get it. Technical is heads and shoulders. You're like looking at charts. you're seeing resistance levels, you're... Yes, yes, yes, yes. All right, bullish, let's go.

Pfizer bottom is in. Palantir. I was funny you mentioned this. Well, they reported earnings last night. I'm hilarious. Yes, you are very funny. Ernie's reported last night. So this is a good timing.

I was listening to the call. I know nothing about Palantir. I know that it's AI and defense AI and government contracts and whatever, whatever. I was listening to the call last night. And I get the appeal. They have a similar shareholder base that is, is seemingly willing to pay whatever multiple. They just crossed a billion dollars in quarterly

revenue, which is impressive. They're growing very quickly. But holy shit, the stock is like a $400 billion market cap. So talk about like maybe excess and discounting too much. And listen, I am not like a Palantir expert and relax. I know there's a lot of people that feel very passionate about the company. I would not buy it here. And I definitely wouldn't short it here. But this is super duper, duper, duper extended on any time frame. So if you want to get into Palantir, I would just maybe let it breathe for a little. To pull back because shares were up 7% to an all-time high. The stock was $65 at the lows in April and it's now 170.

I mean, kudos to them, an incredible run. But this is a volatile stock. And if you are bullish and you don't own it, you will probably, probably maybe have a chance to buy back lower or buy it lower. I would not be chasing this today. It is super extended. Which is what some people are saying about Figma. hmm so I saw oh wow the stock is now crashing to all right so figma came public on what day did it come

public on Thursday it was last Thursday opened at 85 thing was priced at 33 whoops yeah ran all the way to 140 and now it's back down at 85 so nice little round trip there I saw somebody tweet that figma is the most highly valued on a forward earnings projection basis of any of the largest, like, 600 tech companies, I don't, I, I don't buy stocks that I've traded for three days. That's just not my jam. What about IPOs in general? I don't buy, I don't buy IPOs. Oh, excuse me. Okay. It's just, I just not what I do. No shade. I mean, I did quite well with my Reddit and my CoreWeave. Oh, good for, CoreWeave was phenomenal. Good for you. Thank you so much. I, CoreWeave kind of got overshadowed because the

it was, you know, in the shitter with the tariff stuff. Okay. Draft Kings. All right. So I am psychotically bullish on the degenification of everyone. But Draft Kings is in a very competitive space between them. What's the big one? Who owns a fandle?

Is it Flutter? What's that thicker? So I don't know. who the winner is going to be. But let's just say, oh, yeah, Flutters, I don't know how time high. Let's just say that, like, I am bullish on the space. I don't know if they're, yeah, why can't it be multiple winners? I would say, you know what, bullish?

Fuck it. Why am I clear my throat? Bullish. Um, meme stocks. You don't do any of this, do you? No, are you got in mind? Yeah. I'm not, I'm the moderator.

I'm not playing this game. So, I believe. What's the latest one? Open door? Open door. I know Eric doesn't like it being called the meme stock, but tough nuggies. What is he want to call it? He, Eric is genuinely, and I believe he's sincere, like he's earnestly sincere that is earnestly sincere.

That's redundant. He thinks that this is a business that is highly undervalued and the fundamentals might or might not bear that out. We'll see. But just the meme stocks in general. I think the quote, dumb money is not that dumb. I think that these people are sophisticated. I don't think that they get enough credit. I think that no doubt there are, there is some dumb money.

But what I think it is is that people are, and I'm generalizing here, they're recklessly or they're responsibly reckless. Like, I think that people are eating their meat and vegetables in their 401K and they're doing all of like the slow, steady compound, you know, 8 to 10 percent. Yeah, and they're like, but that's boring. But consistent and important. Yeah. And you should do that.

And I ascribe to that. Like, that is the way. but it's also okay to have fun and if you want to light a couple of bucks on fire or you give yourself a budget and listen maybe it works like there are people that are making money so I don't want to say like it's impossible

but just if you're listening not you need my advice but just be a little bit careful especially right now when everything seems to be going up so dumb money you're referring to the movie that was based off GameStop and the Reddit folks and the Wall Street bets bros and all the that stuff. I don't think they're dumb. I don't either. And I mean, they had hedge funds like

round in for the hills. So like kudos to people. Bitcoin. All right. I am a, what they call a tradified dude, meaning I work in traditional finance. I am and have been bullish on Bitcoin. I don't ascribe to the ideas behind it. Some of the ideology, it's not my cup of tea. The dollar is worth this in crashing and have fun staying poor. Like, I don't like all that shit. In fact, I hate it. And I hate it so much. That's why I bought Bitcoin because I'm a very spiteful and very petty person. And if they were right and I didn't participate financially, I would have jumped out the window. So I bought Bitcoin in 2020. I've bought more of it. And the way that I have always thought about it and the way that I continue to think about it is, again, I don't care

about the inflation hedge, the debasement hedge, like whatever. Maybe it is good for you. I think that there is more, in fact, I shouldn't, why do I keep saying I think? There is more demand and supply. And that's all I care about. There are more people that want to buy it than want to sell it. And I don't know at what point that will change, at what point price will find an equilibrium. but the ETF in the month of July brought in an average of $600 million a day. And that is a lot of money. And now there are treasuries buying it. And again, fundamentally, I don't care why they're doing it, but they are. And so I am and have been bullish on Bitcoin, but I do not want anybody to listen to me and then go by Bitcoin for the first time. It is a very volatile asset class.

And you have got to have a super strong stomach because it is quite a ride. But what you're saying is what we've talked about a lot on the show is allocate maybe 1% of your net worth. That's what you can afford to lose, but you kind of can't afford, quote, unquote, to lose out on the mega growth. If, you know, it continues to rip, like the last 10 years, the top 10 investments, what was number one? Bitcoin. Bitcoin, 80%. You know, where was the S&P 500? Number six, 13%.

All right. Call me back. Call me back, Michael. I know this is an audio podcast. We're just making faces at each other. But yeah, no, it did that. Hold onto your wallets. Money rehab will be right back. And now for some more money rehab. All right. Broadcom. All right. So let me go to the chart because I, I am ignorant into this name.

I mean, obviously, I know it's like a giant trillion dollar company, but I'm not a fundamental boricom knower, but holy F&S, this stock has done extremely well. My lord. All right. So I would put this like in the Palantir camp in terms of like super duper extended. Maybe you want to wait for a pullback, but also does earnings next week or in two weeks. And Nvidia has earnings coming up in a few weeks. And that is going to certainly determine the short term direction in the market.

So, but yeah, no, this is a winner. sure. Yeah, I put them in the same bucket. I bought a few years ago, Palantir, Broadcom, Service Now, Palo Alto Networks, like those types of cats are all together. They're winning cats. Good for you. American Eagle. All right. So what in the world? Like was the Sydney Sweeney, I mean, I guess it was a surprise to everybody. I don't know. How nuts is this? Like the idea that a company, and I don't know what the market cap of this stock is, but I'm guessing it's not like tiny tiny tiny is it a billion dollars can move to this degree because listen I get it she attracts eyeballs two billion dollar market cap I don't know I mean this is this is a

meme stock that's right I thought you were going to say that for sure but the Sweeneygate stuff is wild you just saw Trump in a presser talk about how she's registered as a Republican and he likes the ad I mean this is so we know the CMO of American equal. Like, CMOs don't last very long. The tenure is short. I think this guy just extended his tenure. I love it. Good for him. I love, I love seeing stocks go up, but I would suspect that this comes back. I mean, this stock has been, as Trump would say, a dirty dog for a long time. I was like, that wasn't bad. Thank you. But, yeah, no, listen, it's popping. That's that type of market. Everything's popping. Everything is popping. Everybody looks so smart. Starbucks. I own

Starbucks. I am a twice daily customer. The turnaround is not turning around. So they brought in Brian Nichols, who famously killed it at Chipotle. And the difference between the performance of the two stocks since he left is quite stark. Chipotle is getting its, Chipotle has diarrhea. Forgive me. And Starbucks is not doing too great either. Like the same store sales are still down. But I guess Wall Street is kind of giving him the benefit of the doubt because the stock the stock like was up 7% or 6% after the earnest call and people are like, why is it all this? Makes no sense. Fundamental suck. It opened at the highs of the day, closed on the lows of the day, and it sits through bad. I know this is all like short term noise. But I still think that Starbucks is like the corner type of routine place. I don't think that Luckin is going to. I said there's an article in the journal the other day about luck and opening in Manhattan. I think I'm a believer. So Starbucks, you're bullish. How does it continue to grow though?

Well, that's the quote. I mean, the thing is, it's literally not. If it's on the corner store, if it's on every other block. It's literally not. So they did a lot of things during the pandemic that pissed people off. They diluted the menu. They raised prices way too far like a lot of other companies. So they're trying to get back to basics. And listen, the stock is a no man's end. Like it is literally in the middle of absolutely nowhere. So yeah, I don't know. I don't know. That's a very tepid. That is a lukewarm bullish, huh? Super, super lukewarm. Yeah.

Yeah, I didn't burn my tongue on that one. But Chipotle, it sounds like with the diarrhea comment, you're bearish. Got it. Listen, Chipotle, it got too expensive. Like, I don't want to pay $15 for a bowl of burritos. I mean, I like Tripoli. But there's just too much competition now. I don't think the stock will ever make a new ultimate high.

How about that? Okay. Yeah, X-Lex is cheaper. EPS. This is the cleanest downtrend I've ever seen. I'm talking about the stock with Josh later today, actually. we're doing a segment called like to catch a fallen knife would you or wouldn't you I would not this this is like textbook bear bear a shit it's nothing but low a lower series of highs so it starts here it falls it bounces but not as high to the previous one it falls more bounces lower and it just is down and down and down and down and down so no I would not buy the stock fundamentally I have no idea what's going on I guess this is like an amazon story and so and it's also like a digital transformation story like everything that we get is delicious delivered to us electronically. I mean, I know our clothes aren't, but everything else, it's in our inbox. And

this is like a, this is a 20th century stock. So you're describing like a dead cat bounce situation. The cats, yeah, the cat has nine lines. Yeah, it's gross. I would not buy the stock. I mean, when they did their earnings call, they didn't even provide full year guidance for rent news or operating profit because of what they're saying, ongoing macro uncertainty. Yeah, that's code for we're getting our asses kicked. I got it. What stock are you bullish? on right now that we didn't mention. Okay. I'll give you two, and I own these both. Thank you for the disclosure. Yep. I'm very bullish on IMAX. Ha, that feels like a meme stock. No, how dare you?

This is a very serious business. So, IMAX is not just big screens. It's not AMC. Okay. It's not AMC. IMAX has less than 1% of global screens, and they do three and a half percent is of global box office revenue. And if you think about the tent pole movies that people go to see, Oppenheimer, Superman, things like that, in some cases, they have 20% of the global box office. And now you are seeing IMAX on posters. Like, it is as big as Tom Cruise in the Mission Impossible movies. They announced a couple of weeks ago, they pre-released sales for the Odyssey, which doesn't come out for a year. I'm like, what the fuck are they doing? Like, this is so bizarre. It's sold out in Manhattan under three minutes. So IMAX is like the ultimate experience

type of event. People don't go to the movies the same way that they used to. Obviously, the box office has not rebounded, has not retaken its 2019 highs. But when people are going to out to the movies, they're going to see IMAX. So that's one. I did. I went to go see Superman, the new Superman. I saw it in IMAX. And honestly, I hated it. Because, It was with the glasses, the 3D glasses. Oh, I don't do that. Maybe I'm in my old age. I don't know.

Everything looks blurry and weird. I don't like that. It wasn't like the 3D movies that, you know, I remember as a kid where stuff was like flying at you. It was just like a little bit different, but honestly worse. I agree. I am not a 3D viewer myself. Okay.

The other stock is Rocket Mortgage. The ticker is RKT. I don't own enough of this stock. It is breaking out and I don't own enough. enough. Well, that's a shame. What does breaking out mean? Breaking out, technical stuff. All right. So breaking out means that it is at the highest level that it has been in X number of time, whether it's, it depends on your time for three months a year or whatever. In this case, it's at the highest point that it's been since October 2024. But more importantly,

there was previous resistance. And this is not voodoo. All that it means is that at some level, seller step in. And in this case, they say, okay, at $16, I'm out. out. It came back down, went back up, more sellers came in at $16. That was called resistance. It couldn't get through 16. And then it finally punched above and it's staying above and there's nothing but blue skies ahead of it, meaning there are no, there are no sellers. It's only buyers on the way up. So that's what's happening in rocking now. Why, I think this is very simple. This is the purest play on mortgage origination, refinancing, and this stock is not waiting for the Fed to lower rates. It is anticipating that the Fed will.

lower rates, whether it's September or later, there will be a refi boom. Supply will get unlocked as mortgage rates come down, and this will be the biggest beneficiary. So it's still a buy? I think so. Yes. All right. We end our episodes, as you know, because you are a long-time listener, first-time caller by asking all of our guests for a tip listeners can take straight to the bank. I'll give two. And this is very easy and basic and no shit, Sherlock, but just automate as much as you can. Of course, automate your spending, automate your saving, like auto pay, anything that you can automate, do it. Duh. Credit card points. I was with somebody at the beach yesterday who's hoarding his credit card points. I said, dude, what the fuck are you doing with 700,000

chase points? These, like, these are, these are, these are, these are inflationary. Like, they devalue to six degrees over time. Do not hoard your, hoard your points. They decrease in value over time. I'm like, is this OCD? What are you doing? What are you doing? Not for like the one trip to the Ritz and Paris. No, no, he was not, he has not gone to the Ritz and Paris. I have no idea what he was doing. And then the last thing is, I think people need to ask more, have a little bit of what we call in the South Shore, chutzpah. If you don't ask, you don't get. And nobody is going to ask for anything on your behalf. So ask. If you don't ask, you don't get.

You promised you. He gave us three. How lucky are we? There you go. This was fun. Thank you for having me. Money rehab is a production of Money News Network. I'm your host, Nicole Lappin. Money Rehab's executive producer is Morgan LaVoy. Our researcher is Emily Holmes.

Do you need some money rehab? And let's be honest, we all do. So email us your money questions, money rehab at money newsnetwork.com to potentially have your questions answered on the show or even have a one-on-one intervention with me and follow us on Instagram at Money News and TikTok at Money News Network for exclusive video content. And lastly, thank you. No seriously, thank you. Thank you for listening and for investing in yourself, which is the most important investment you can make. You know,