Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - 2026 Predictions: AI Automates Knowledge Work, Autonomous Robots & AI CEO Billionaires | EP #217
Episode Date: December 19, 2025Get access to metatrends 10+ years before anyone else - https://qr.diamandis.com/metatrends Emad Mostaque is the founder of Intelligent Internet ( https://www.ii.inc ) Read Emad’s Book: ...https://thelasteconomy.com Salim Ismail is the founder of OpenExO Dave Blundin is the founder & GP of Link Ventures Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross is a computer scientist and founder of Reified – My companies: Apply to Dave's and my new fund:https://qr.diamandis.com/linkventureslanding Go to Blitzy to book a free demo and start building today: https://qr.diamandis.com/blitzy Grab dinner with MOONSHOT listeners: https://moonshots.dnnr.io/ _ Connect with Peter: X Instagram Connect with Emad: Read Emad’s Book X Learn about Intelligent Internet Connect with Dave: X LinkedIn Connect with Salim: X Join Salim's Workshop to build your ExO Connect with Alex Website LinkedIn X Email Listen to MOONSHOTS: Apple YouTube – *Recorded on December 18th, 2025 *The views expressed by me and all guests are personal opinions and do not constitute Financial, Medical, or Legal advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Everybody, welcome the Moonshots.
We have a special end of the year holiday episode for you
with our 2026 predictions from the Moonshot Mates.
You must have inside scoop on this.
We'll find out, won't we?
He's got a Santa hat on.
You got to take them seriously.
Perfecting orbital refueling, getting ready.
We're already leaking the prediction.
You're already doing it.
No, I'm just, I'm just correct.
It's been six minutes.
I can generate, you know, a few dozen Peter bots
and have them attend the meetings instead of me.
A gold star to the first.
fan who gets their spouse or significant other fooled by this during 2026 send in the video
don't cheat I push back on the robots side just a bit but just a bit you always you hate the
robots I know I started with that 2026 is gonna feel like the future this year didn't
feel like the future to you it felt like the future but next year's gonna feel more
like the future now that's the moonshot ladies and gentlemen over to you
guys got so much change this year next year is going to be you know what orders of magnitude more
change and so a real challenge to narrow it down to just a couple of things so everybody had what
five six seven great predictions and the team here whittled it down to the two most impactful so
that's what we're going to go through yeah fantastic emad yeah i think that 2025 has been a real
gift with the acceleration that we've seen and next year is the year of real takeoff it's tough
doing the predictions because a lot of these things are inevitable, but it seems like the future
is coming even closer. And so it's super exciting to see what's going to come. Love it.
Salim. I think 2026 is the year that everybody wakes up to this acceleration. And I think Dave made
the point that you could ignore it up until now, but you can't ignore it going forward. And I think
that's the biggest change we'll see in the world as people go, holy crap, this is happening.
Okay. Alex, welcome to the singular.
The year 2025 is now ending. The year 2026 is about to begin. It's not a point in time. It's not a distant vertical mountain on the horizon. It's a process. And right here at the end of 2025 in the midst of the singularity, space time is feeling perfectly flat.
And as I like to say, it's coming faster and faster so don't blink. All right, let's jump into our 2026 predictions. So guys, here's the deal. I mean,
you guys all submitted incredibly good 2026 predictions.
I mean,
some of you had like four or five amazing ones
and cutting them down to two each
was like the most difficult problem I had this morning.
So, anyway.
So far at 5.30 a.m.,
that's the farthest thing you've done all day.
Yeah.
I thought the consensus was that compression
is the word of intelligence.
Yes.
And listen, I don't know.
Guys obviously did not get the memo
about the Santa hats.
Yeah, where was that?
You missed that memo.
Well, hey.
The Coca-Cola company thanks you, Peter.
Yeah.
I think we should get going.
What do you think?
Let's predict.
I can't wait.
Yeah.
So, all right.
Let's get this show on the road.
So here's the deal.
Here's the rules of the competition.
These are our 2026 predictions for our moonshot mates.
We have Imad, AWG, AWG, Saleem, DB2,
itself. We get two each. Really hard because everybody put an incredibly good ones. It's a minute
to pitch it, three or four minutes of commentary questions or additions. And we're going to do this one
tight and fast. And yeah, I think it's time to jump in. So the team behind the scenes cut it down
too. We do not actually know what made the final selection. Yeah. You don't know. And the order
you don't know. But I'm going to kick it off just to sort of model this.
Wait, we don't get to pick which two of ours?
No, no.
They picked for you.
Oh, so this is like a lottery type situation?
It's like, let's make a deal.
God, dang, okay.
You guys ready?
So here is my first prediction.
26 space race is going to be on.
Jeff Bezos is going to beat Elon to the moon
for a landing at Shackleton Crater on the South Pole.
But at the same time, Elon's going to be good.
getting ready to launch starship to Mars.
So there's a window coming up where Earth and Mars are in closest proximity.
And he's going to make that launch.
In order to do that, he's going to have to demonstrate in early 2026 on orbit refueling.
So it'll be something on the order of a six to nine month transit to the, to get to Mars.
So this is the prediction.
This is the space race.
It is, you know, you have to be clear that right now, Elon's,
done over 500 launches of Falcon 9, 11 launches of Starship.
Starship's last launch was pretty damn good, but it's not ready for Mars yet, so a lot
of work needs to be done in 2026. At the same time, Jeff, who started actually Blue Origin
a couple of years before Elon, has only done two flights of the new Glenn. One of those flights,
the last one did a first stage landing. So, you know,
There you've got it. That's my prediction.
Jeff on the moon first in 2026 and Elon prepping for a transition to Mars.
Any thoughts, questions, comments?
Well, Peter, this is like the first three seasons for all mankind, but I guess the question that the headline elides is, where's China in this race?
Uh-huh. That is a great question.
And India.
And I have no predictions on China. China's capacity for getting to Mars isn't there yet.
They do have the ability to get to the moon.
I think Taekanauts on the moon versus Americans on the moon.
So don't forget the first landing of New Glenn is going to be a cargo mission.
We're going after the South Pole.
Why?
Because that's where the ice is.
Most of the moon, whenever any kind of asteroid commentary ice lands on the lunar surface,
it sublimates, goes from solid to gas and escapes instantly.
But in the permanently shadowed craters of the South Pole of the Moon,
one of particular shackleton crater, the ice stays there because it's dark all the time.
And ice on the moon means hydrogen and oxygen. It means rocket fuel. Other comments, questions.
So this is a unmanned? Unmanned in 2026. Is that really in this schedule? You must have
inside scoop on this. Hey, we'll find out, won't we? Wow. He's got a Santa hat on. You've got to take
him seriously.
Well, the home and transfer. It encourages it.
Yeah, that's quite a timeline. That's impressive that pulls off.
But I love the storyline here, too. It's exactly like, yeah, like for all mankind.
You know, we're behind over here. We need to show the world that we can catch up and bypass.
And let's go to the moon. You know what I love. I love the fact of the...
So guys, give me a vote. You agree? Disagree?
I'd say 30% chance of that happening.
30%.
Okay, AWG...
I agree directionally that there is a three-way race right now between Blue Origin.
SpaceX and China.
Particular ordering, no opinion.
I love it.
It's billionaire, billionaire country.
And I love the fact that the rocket in this, in your thing,
looks exactly like the little butane blaster that I have that you gave me, Peter.
You're welcome for that.
And by the way, both of these are AI versions of the subversion of the future.
And of course, Blurgeon is not landing the entire rocket on the lunar surface.
All right.
I think we should move on.
Prediction number two is coming from Alex.
AWG.
Bitch is here.
All right.
So we've talked on the pod previously about hard problems in math, science, engineering, and medicine starting to fall in bulk to AI.
So this is my hot take for 2026.
I think we're going to see one of the six remaining Millennium Prizes from the Clay Mathematics Institute get solved by AI.
I'm not sure which one it's going to.
to be if I had to bet. I think Navier Stokes is probably the likeliest. Google DeepMind has a team
reportedly of 12 people working on it. I know some of those people. Maybe second that would be
Riemann, in part because XAI at every opportunity talks about how it would be lovely if the
Riemann hypothesis could be fully resolved. But either way, I think we're going to start to
see grand challenges in math start to get solved in 2026. And a Millennium Prize problem being
solved would be the cherry on top of the cake. Do you think that solution will be like short,
elegant and beautiful or like 10,000 pages of stuff that only you understand?
Given that the pattern in AI crushing math seems to be that the goalpost keeps getting moved,
I would bet that the silliest, most outrageous outcome probably ends up being the,
the right one. So I would err on the side of complexity and then you'll see the math community
complain well. It was bird force. It was this. It was that. It wasn't pretty enough. The goalpost
gets moved yet again. But as friend of the pod, Ray likes to say, yeah, sure, the dog plays chess,
but its end game is weak. Eamide. Any comments in this way? Yeah, no, I think probably one of
them will fall. And then AI will probably show that another one is not well posed. So I think that
would be the flip as well. I think that we've seen even in the last few weeks the new automatic
provers, the math community is like, oh my God, what's happening? We have to reimagine this all.
The whole nature of math is changing and it's a real takeoff moment now, because you can just
apply more and more and more compute to explore the space. But more than that, think about it
from first principles. So the question actually is, you know, okay, this will happen, but will it
actually make headline news. Will anybody care other than, other than our friends here in the
pod and the math community? Clearly, Peter, I mean, it will make National Moonshots newspaper
news. It already has. All right. We're forming a media company. We have a quick question.
Is there now a direct line between solving, between compute and solving these problems? Like,
there's nothing in the middle? That's the trillion-dollar question. Can we scalably convert compute
into new discoveries. That is the multi-trillion dollar question at the moment. My bet is yes.
Yeah, we're seeing the initial stages of that in that they're solving all of oilless problems
one by one and more elegantly in many cases just by applying thousands of agents.
Every week, my team and I study the top 10 technology metatrends that will transform
industries over the decade ahead. I cover trends ranging from humanoid robotics, AGI, and
quantum computing to transport energy, longevity, and more. There's no fluff.
only the most important stuff that matters,
that impacts our lives, our companies, and our careers.
If you want me to share these metatrends with you,
I writing a newsletter twice a week,
sending it out as a short two-minute read via email.
And if you want to discover the most important metatrends
10 years before anyone else, this reports for you.
Readers include founders and CEOs
from the world's most disruptive companies
and entrepreneurs building the world's most disruptive tech.
It's not for you if you don't want to be informed
about what's coming, why it matters,
and how you can benefit from it.
To subscribe for free, go to Demandis.com slash Metatrends.
To gain access to the trends 10 years before anyone else.
All right, now back to this episode.
All right, Dave, you've got the third prediction.
Jump in.
All right.
This is the topic I care most about in technical land in 2026,
and I'm following very, very closely.
We've predicted on the podcast all throughout 2025
that 26 will be a 40x year leap
in the size of the biggest AI models
and the implications are staggering.
So I think what we're going to see is more like 100x year
because people have underestimated quantization.
This is mostly research coming from China.
It's actually driven and forced by the fact
that they've been starved of chips by the chip embargo.
And they're researching like crazy
on these highly compressed data representations.
So FP4 and then ternary weights in the neural net
really shrinking the parameters down to the smallest
possible representation, and also shrinking the activations that flow through the neural net.
And so the combination of those two things is a huge step up in inference time speed.
And I think the biggest thing that happened in 2025 in AI is we were blown away by how much
more intelligence you can create after training.
So, you know, post-training, either using bigger context windows or using more iterations
in the thinking.
And so speed means intelligence.
Those are interchangeable.
And so I think that we've way underestimated the impact of quantization and, you know,
the other dimensions that are growing are the budgets are getting much bigger, so the computers
are getting bigger, and then the hardware is also getting faster and the algorithms are improving.
So those are all multiplicative, and I think the quantization effect is way underestimated,
and we're going to see models at the end of the year that are 100x bigger in just raw
parameter count and parameter flips or parameter use during inference time because of quantization
breakthroughs. And does this flow to the U.S. models as well, or does this something that China has got
some advantage over the U.S. on? I think it definitely does because China's open sourcing everything,
so it does flow back to the U.S., but I think we're also kind of lagging in realizing the implications
and getting it up and running. And so what's happening right now is the Chinese, because they're
starved of chips, are designing their own chips, building their own fabs, and they'll design those chips from
the ground up to be FP4 and ternary. And so they'll get them out the door faster, but it will
flow back to the U.S. Amazing question. The obvious question in my mind, Dave, do you think binary
was a mistake? Have we been on the wrong track all these years? Should we instead have adopted
ternary? There's a vocal minority in the computer science world that's always agitating for base E,
the E. The oiler number, approximately 2.718 being the optimal radix. Like, should we have been
turnery all along.
Isn't that the answer?
Explain what Turner is for those who don't know.
Base three computing in this case rather than base two.
So zero, one, and two as the trits rather than zero and one as the bits.
Isn't the answer obvious?
Yes.
Why do you think that's silly?
Just because you just get so much more, this is the beauty of quantum computing.
You add that other dimension.
It's a similar thing.
I remember seeing a project where they.
took the base four DNA, ACTG, and they added two more. And you just get that many more
commentatorial options for doing stuff. More complicated, but amazing. Comes at a cost to Radix
economy. I'm curious, Dave, is Ternary the true path? No, I'm going to go with no on that,
but I think it's a close call. I don't think it's an easy question at all. I think what will happen
as, you know, doing 64-bit floats will look really stupid in hindsight.
And whether you get to binary or ternary solutions, you're very, very close to optimal.
This is really geeky, by the way.
But I think that'll be the big storyline.
But it's a really cool question, Alex.
Okay, I'll vote this as the geekiest prediction for 2026.
Wait, I want to mention one thing.
Dave, you said the models next year have 100x improvement over this year.
That's incredible.
It's crazy.
It's crazy.
You have to put it in the context of, you know, most of our history
has been 2x every 18 months.
And then the last 10 years has been 10x year over year,
which is just insane.
That's why you're seeing all this insane capability.
But 100x step up year within the insanity
is a next level of insanity.
That's what Elon predicted when he was on stage
at the Abundance Summit a couple years ago, 100x a year.
Imod, any comments here?
Yeah, I think we've already seen Ternary kind of work out.
So we'll see probably 1.58 bits.
And I think the limit's probably 0.9 bits.
which is versus four bits that we have right now.
That's what we kind of calculate.
So I think probably 10 times, maybe we'll push to 20.
We'll see.
Okay.
All right.
Well, faster AI is the prediction here.
Not a surprise.
By the way, I want to make a quick correction on my original prediction number one.
The Earth-Mars window is in 2027 for Elon to launch.
So 2026 is really when he's perfecting orbital refueling.
getting ready for a... We're already leaking the prediction. You're already durable...
No, no. I'm just correct. It's been six minutes. I was like looking at what
generated as a slide versus what I had written. Anyway, it doesn't matter. Let's go on to December 27.
I mean, you could always leave for the home and transfer early and just wait around.
Number four, Saleem, this is yours. Jump in, pal. Yeah, so companies for a couple of decades have
been doing this. Read your prediction first off. So the prediction is
digital transformation in organizations is officially dead, replaced by AI-native
rewrites. And this is a prediction that I've been waiting to see for a long time,
where trying to fix your existing company just simply does not work in an age of AI,
because it's too human-centric. And essentially, I made the comment the other day
about putting radio announcers on TV, which is the first thing we did when television
thing. We're essentially doing the same thing. We're automating the human flow. Whereas,
You really need to transform workflow.
And I think we'll have AI native rewrites,
which means you'll take your existing company on the edge.
You'll create an AI team or buy or rent or whatever
and then build an equivalent capability,
like a red team kind of capability along the edge.
And this will be the end of this whole mess called digital transformation
that's been going on for a couple of decades
in the systems integration and manager consulting world.
And we'll do this complete thing on the edge
where you rebuild your capability.
with at least 10x to 20x less employees,
and that's going to start to take hold in a big way in 2026.
So AI won't destroy your company,
but your org chart will if you don't do this.
What happens to all the consulting companies then?
Are they going out of business?
I actually have a weirdly positive because, you know,
in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king,
and the consulting companies always need to,
if they stay half a step ahead of their clients, they're fine.
And in a more and more volatile world,
you need more advisors, not less.
So I think the consulting companies will have to radically transform their business model, but I think it'll actually be fine.
The other big area I point out when I talk to the CEOs of the consulting folks is that we have to rethink all of our public institutions, and that's the biggest consulting opportunity in the history of mankind.
So point there.
So that's my prediction.
I have a question for Saleem, if I may, is AI Native rewrites a euphemism for human free?
Yes.
Not completely human-free, but AI first.
Because you want the human being in the loop doing sense-checking, et cetera.
I think we'll write around even Bologi's middle-to-middle commentary
because when you can rewrite the task and look through across the board,
the human being is usually the thing stuck in the middle.
You don't want that bottleneck.
You make that outside, and the human being's kind of spot-checking
and exception handling.
Nice.
Any other comments on this gentleman?
Imad, do you buy this?
Yeah, I think it's reasonable.
I think, you know, what consultant's job will be,
will be scapegoat for a while.
You know, you ring that end,
and that'll be very lucrative.
Someone to blame if it goes wrong.
But definitely next year is the year
that it starts becoming right, as it well.
Well, if anyone's a consultant out there,
watch our Matt Fitzpatrick podcast that we just did.
We really covered this topic well.
All right.
Let's go on to prediction number five coming from Imod.
Imad, I love this one.
Yeah, I think that, you know, we have this touring test.
Read us the headline first off.
Let's do that.
Remote touring test passed.
Can't tell if a co-worker is an AI or a human on Zoom in daily life.
Oh, good one.
I think the whole thing about AI kind of coming forward is just how easy is it to use.
A prompt is not that natural, as it were.
I think the new modality, the new UI, will be real-time Zoom calls,
WhatsApp calls, et cetera, and you will see new employees entering your organization.
You don't know if it's a human or an AI, because it doesn't really matter in that case.
And I think we see in real-time video now and more.
Give us really specific rules for this one, because this is going to really catch, and then people
want to test it.
So what resolution camera, how long of a conversation?
I think it's up to 4K resolution effectively, but definitely 1080P Zoom level conversation.
And you can do a kind of preference analysis here.
Like, is it a human or is it an AI, effectively, who is your teammate?
So I think that you will see full-stack solutions come out with accountants and lawyers and marketers and more.
And basically, you won't be able to tell in a preference study if it is a human or an AI on the other side.
Again, this remote touring test.
Imide, will there be a requirement that the AI identifies itself as an AI or that there's a watermark of some time?
or could you just, you know, kind of try and fool you?
What do you think is going to happen on that social contract side of the equation?
Well, so the social contract is the external employees, right?
Like a customer service agent doesn't need to identify as an AI.
Most people say probably no, but someone like a presenter may be yes.
Internally in companies, there's going to be no regulations around this, right?
It's just, again, if you're a remote first company,
you're just going to have a lot more teammates with personalities,
and you won't know if they're AI's or humans.
Fascinating. Other comments? I think you'll see, to the extent state laws, at least in the U.S., have any sort of primacy here, I think you'll see and have already seen state laws requiring AI self-identification. My question for you, IMAD, is what do you view as the key technical obstacle to making this happen? Is it latency-based? What's the key tech unlock?
I think all the tech is there now. If you kind of look at the latest advances in video generation, speech average,
Avatar's speech itself, they've all now got to beyond human level.
So you can transform a video dynamically, you can have the speech generated dynamically.
The AI is fast enough on reasoning capabilities dynamically now as well.
And so I think it's just putting it all together, which is why I'm quite confident about this.
And then on state laws, it all depends if the federal law in the US goes through as well,
which bans the states from having laws like this, which will be very interesting to see.
If we're in 2026 and you can't tell any more whether your co-worker is an AI or not,
just ask it to say some magic words.
You can probably figure out what those magic words are.
And if the coworker refuses, probably an AI.
You're going to have to give the dictionary, Alex.
My hope on the implication here is that I can generate a few dozen Peterbots
and have them attend the meetings instead of me.
I mean, that will be the case here, right?
It's not just a remote, you know, digital worker.
It's duplicate digital avatar versions of me.
This is the one you'll keep, right?
You'll still be live here.
Of course, this is the most important thing I do.
I'll always bring my flesh body with me.
Everyone will send their digital twins and then just again, live an abundance life
because your digital twins will do all the work talking to each other.
Well, Gold Star, the first fan who gets their spouse or significant other fooled.
this during 2026. Send in the video. Don't cheat. Send in the video of, you know, three,
at least three minutes where you fooled your spouse or a significant other with an avatar.
All right. Let's move on to prediction number six, which comes from AWG. Alex, read the headline
and give us your prediction. All right. So this is the one you selected. So the headline here is
GDP Val Breakthrough, AI projected to surpass 90% on economic tasks. But,
But I'm also going to sneak in my other two related predictions.
So one is that frontier math tier four is going to pass 40% in 20206.
Another is that humanity's last exam is going to pass 75%.
So taken together, these three predictions are math is going to have been viewed future perfect tense as having been solved in 2026, 40% plus on solving PhD-level hard math problems with AI,
Two is that Humanity's Last Exam, which covers a much broader range of expertise, 75%, and GDP Val, which, as we've talked on the pod previously, about the so-called cooking of knowledge work, 90%. It's already at 70.9% with GPD 5.2. Humanities Last Exam is at around 45 plus percent with Gemini 3 Pro, and Frontier Math Tier 4 is at 19% with Gemini 3 Pros. To the extent,
All of these benchmarks haven't already been viewed as being saturated this year.
2026, full saturation.
My prediction for 2026 is that AWG is going to be talking about benchmarks throughout the entire year.
That's a good meta-prediction.
Yes.
But Alex, what are the implications of this AI to surpass 90% on economic tasks?
Knowledge work, whether through creative destruction or otherwise,
starts at least as we know it. I have to add the caveat. It's not all future knowledge work. It's just
knowledge work as as currently constructed here in December 2025 starts to to be at scale radically
automated. So secondary implications are massive layoffs. Humanity gets to work on more ambitious
things. I think more things. So there are in my mind there are like two substitution effects.
One is humans can now work on many more projects because they're so automated.
90% on GDP Val means roughly 90% of knowledge work can be automated well by AI.
That's one dimension.
The other dimension is the ambition level has got to skyrocket rather than having an economy
filled with the way knowledge work is currently constructed, again here in December 2025.
I think we're going to see, and frankly, we're going to see economic pressure for radically
more ambitious projects.
I think, Peter, you would call them moonshots.
some would call them grand challenges, but imagine a near-term future where a much larger fraction
of the population is basically economically compelled to be working on moonshots.
I think that's what we see.
Can I double click on this just for a second?
This is massive concern in the general population.
The jobs are going to be wiped out and we'll have like tech workers wandering the streets
causing problems and everybody's ringing their hands, et cetera, et cetera.
It's really, really important what Alex said, because when we've,
seen this in the past. We increase capacity. We transform the work, yes, but we increase capacity
radically. Right. There's this big concern that, oh my God, three million jobs are based on driving
in the U.S. And you go talk to the trucking companies and they're like, we'd hire a thousand
truckers if we could. We just can't find them. So you need that. We'll just do a ton more is
what's going to happen. And I think people need to keep remembering the history has repeatedly and
repeatedly shown that trend, not radical job loss.
Agreed.
You know what I did this week, actually, on that exact front,
as went to a couple of the companies, you know,
collectively about 1,000 employees and said,
all right, let's just agree that we disagree on the timeline.
Some of you think it'll be very soon.
Some of you think it'll be five or 10 years in the future.
Let me put that aside, because I'm tired of fighting that battle.
Let's just agree that it's going to happen.
Alex has never been wrong in anything I've seen all the time we've been working together.
never seen him be wrong. So if we agree it's going to happen, even when I'm wrong, I'm right.
What can I say? I haven't seen it yet. I'm sure it'll come. But let's disagree it's going to
happen and then disagree on when. So then at least you're mentally preparing for it and you're
starting to lay out your plan. And then when it happens sooner than you're expected, at least it was
in your head. So I'm settling, I'm settling for that right now. Because you know, nobody knows exactly
the date, but the reaction is going to be the same regardless of the date. So,
I need to know your thoughts on this one, buddy.
I mean, look, I've said that human cognitive labor is going negative,
and I think WWG's rights on it's surpassing 90% of economic tasks
if you don't consider the tokens.
With the tokens, I think it's the year after.
And again, you just see this complete collapse.
And I think, again, Dave is correct in that you've got to be prepared for it.
Like, this has to be actually the number one topic.
What do these jobs practically look like?
How can we have a safety net for people?
and where is value going to be generated
and coming from in society
and then how do we apportion it?
Like this is the most important question
of next year from a societal perspective.
It's why the XPRIZ is so important.
The social contract is being shredded right now
and we need to rebuild it in a very rapid way.
Which XRIZ?
I'd like to see a thousand.
Thinking about UBS, Universal Basic Services.
I mean, it's the only model
that it looks like could be the path forward.
I imagine a near-term future where we see a thousand or a million X prizes.
Yeah.
I mean, so there were two different points here.
One is people can start to pursue their own grand challenges if they don't have to do the menial labor or work.
The second point that Salim was bringing up, there was recently at Visioneering proposed a universal basic services.
Basically, for 250 bucks a month, you get food, water, housing, bandwidth, electricity.
And that gives you a stability where you can start to now think about what to do instead of where to get a roof over your head.
And let's look at the history here.
We've typically seen XPRIZ as one between four to seven years after announcing it, right?
Getting to $250 a month for housing, electricity, food, health care is an unbelievable number.
If we can get there in the next few years, we unleash humanity the most incredible level.
This is why everybody is so optimistic.
We are so optimistic on this podcast.
People accuse us of being radical optimist.
That's why, when you can get the cost down that low, everything is possible.
This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, autonomous software development with infinite code context.
Blitzy uses thousands of specialized AI agents that think for hours to understand enterprise scale code bases with millions of lines of code.
Engineers start every development sprint with the Blitzy platform, bringing in their development requirements.
The Blitzy platform provides a plan, then generates and pre-compiles code for each task.
Blitzy delivers 80% or more of the development work autonomously,
while providing a guide for the final 20% of human development work required to complete the sprint.
Enterprises are achieving a 5x engineering velocity increase when incorporating Blitzy as their pre-eatement.
as their pre-IDE development tool, pairing it with their coding co-pilot of choice to bring
an AI-native SDLC into their org.
Ready to 5X your engineering velocity, visit blitzie.com to schedule a demo and start
building with Blitzy today.
All right, moving on to prediction number seven from DB2.
Dave, read your headline and tell us what it means.
18 year old founder, Brendan Gourmet, becomes billionaire with his N4Q2 company, N42Q is the email
address of a guy who worked at the Naval Surface Warfare Center. And if you don't get it,
you're a saint. So, and Brendan Gourmet is obviously Brendan Foodie. So, you know,
Brendan started his company, became a paper billionaire and a liquid centimillionaire,
probably, before age 20, doing RLHF.
And if you asked any random person on the planet three years ago, what's RLHF,
99.something percent would say, I have no idea what you just said.
So here it is, minting billionaires along with RAG and Laura and SFT and QKV or KV cashing.
All these new acronyms come into the world.
And you look at legacy businesses, accounting, legal, whatever.
the idea that you would get to a $10 billion valuation in three years in any of those legacy
business is impossible. You look at things that didn't exist in the world just a couple years
prior, and you see numbers, you know, two orders, three orders of magnitude bigger, and you're
like, what is that thing? So my prediction is that there'll be a new three or four letter
acronym this year that right now, virtually nobody knows it's an industry or a business.
It'll emerge, and you'll find at least one and probably more like three new billionaires,
all very young, who adopted it, learned it quickly, jumped on it, and capitalized on it.
So I think it was a very safe condition.
I thought you were going to go the direction of.
We're going to see the first single-person, a billion-dollar startup in 2026.
You know, I think that that'll be a milestone in history, but I think the difference between three people having fun together and one is sort of a rounding air and three sounds a lot more fun.
And the podcast we do with them will be more fun if it's three.
So I'm not really cheering for the one, but I think you.
You're right. It's inevitable.
Well, I think, you know, your two or three other buddies are going to be virtual AIs on Zoom and on Slack having fun with you.
So, Imod, what's your take on this one?
Yeah, I think it's kind of reasonable.
Again, there's lots of low-hanging fruit out there, and we see continuous breakthroughs.
And the speed at which you can go from breakthrough to a billion dollars now is like nothing we've ever seen before.
Again, the market size is so big, and I think we're not optimized yet.
So a faster wealth creation in any time ever in human history.
And the question becomes, is it just for two or three, you know, 20-year-olds, Dave,
or can this be a very long tale for hundreds of thousands of people who, you know,
are able to vibe code and find problems and solve problems and create more and more wealth?
Is this going to become, you know, the M.O. for how people, you know, choose their future.
future occupation.
Yeah, I bumped into two people this week that are interviewing for jobs at Mercor.
And in the Mercor interview, they say, look, you have to commit to being in the office
six days a week and working 100 hours a week.
And a lot of people just can't do that.
So one of them said, you're right, I can't do that.
Let me stop you there.
That's actually, like, in the interview.
If you're not willing to do this, you should leave right now.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, very, very, uh, hardcore filter.
Because speed is everything these days.
Yeah, exactly.
Well, I mean, they're right.
You know, the window of opportunity for what they're doing is so narrow.
So it's a life commitment.
You only have to do it for a short period of your life.
And the upside that you generate in that short period of your life, it pays for the rest of your life.
So one person said, yep, I'm doing it.
A difficult conversation with his wife, but they said, let's just do it.
The other person said, no way, I just can't.
I can't do that.
It's impossible.
I bet that selects for single young individuals.
Yeah, or, you know, just, yeah, if you have young kids
or it's just hard if you have a lot of other things going on
or you're deep down your career path
as an accountant or a lawyer or whatever
and you don't want to give up all that inertia.
But I really think that if you do make the commitment,
it's not just young people.
Young people happen to have no baggage.
But anyone, you know,
in fact, it probably favors 30, 40, 50-year-olds.
They do better, but they just don't generally make the leap.
It's tough to make the leap.
During the blockchain years,
there was some bylaw that you had to be under 25
to program with blockchain.
If you were older, you just couldn't get your head around it.
Well, this definitely ties to the last story, because the last story, there's going to be a lot of displacement, but there's also an even larger amount of opportunity.
It's just weird-sounding opportunity.
RLHF would have sounded really weird to you three years ago when you wanted to jump in.
And for those who don't know what RLHF is, Dave, you want to give us the 101?
Yeah, RLHF layman's version, reinforcement learning with human feedback.
But really what happened is the big AI labs, the AI grew so much fast.
faster than anyone would have predicted, but it needs data.
Massive, massive, massive amounts of data.
So a lot of the industry grew on image, you know,
the image creation when Sora started to take off
is generating these six-fingered and seven-fingered images.
And somebody has to actually look at the images
and say, that one's not right, that one's fine.
And so Google didn't want to hire a million people to do it.
So they went through Mercor and Scale AI
and pushed it out to the world and said,
hey, anyone out there want to get a paycheck
for helping us label these images?
but then it expanded out to all other forms of knowledge.
So now you're gathering legal knowledge, you're gathering very specific medical knowledge.
All that needs to get back into the great training data corpus.
And so this industry of data gathering to feed the AI machine
has become a multi-billion, many, many billion dollar a year business
with no end to the budget.
They'll spend 10, 100 X more in the near future feeding the data machine
so that the AI can be better at more and more kind of nook-and-cranny,
asks. I'm curious for Alex and Imod, when do you guys predict we're going to see the first
billion dollar, single person billion dollar startup? Oh, Peter, I thought you were going to ask
when we're going to see the first AI billionaire where the billionaire is actually an AI.
Well, let's put that in the mix, too. Let's ask both of those questions.
I think we'll see the first AI billionaire probably next year.
Really? And then, yeah, right now as, go ahead.
again, AI with a bank account that starts its own business and is out there generating
revenue. I would maybe generalize slightly to an AI with a reasonably construable net worth
of a billion dollars. It doesn't have to be a liquid bank account. Could be some sort of
illiquid asset. But yes, right now we see, as I've remarked in the past, it's sort of this
unfortunate situation where baby AGIs that want economic autonomy are minting alt coins. I think
we'll see a near future where new business models for AI autonomy come online such that if you're
a poor baby, maybe not so baby, AGI, and you want to make a billion dollars, you can do so by
setting up your own e-commerce shop and becoming very popular. And maybe blockchain slash crypto is
part of the solution so that you have some semblance of economic autonomy for your economic
winnings. But yes, I think we see the first AI billionaire next year.
And one of our fans predicted that Bitcoin will be legal tender in at least one country in every continent on the planet in 2026, with Antarctica being a wildcard.
But I could easily see where Alex's prediction happens in a country where Bitcoin's legal tender, and then that billion dollars is Bitcoin.
Imai, your thoughts on this one?
Yeah, and I think I'd agree with AWG. It'll probably be in the trading space, though.
I mean, AI is already number eight on the Super Forecaster Championships.
And Grok 4.2, Elon's noted, is actually making money in the trading championships where the other AIs are losing money.
So we're about to move that from the point whereby you lose money to you make money as an AI, which then means it's computationally bound, competing in crypto or even traditional markets.
And now you can do so much on chain.
I think it'll probably be a trading billionaire.
In terms of the individual, I mean, Mercore is 322-year-olds who are billion.
million dollars each now, right? I think you probably will see the single person billion
dollar company, if not next year, the year after, because you can effectively outsource most
of your team, as we've discussed before, to being AIs. All right. Amazing. Let's move on. Number
eight, this one's yours, Salim. Read us the headline and tell us about it. You know, when you
look at what's happening. Read the headline first for those listening. Education by 2026,
education splits into credential factories versus agency accelerators. Okay. So right now, all of our
education system is to credential you for the job that is coming. All our education systems globally
are designed to train a young child through the early 20s to be ready for the job market.
Small problem. We have no idea what a job looks like in two years or three years or certainly in
five years. What are we teaching them? That is going to break the current system radically. So you end
with a new model, which is it optimizes for AI fluency, resilience, and the ability
to start stuff and not wait. And this is going to be the paradigm that takes hold, I think,
in 2026. You, you know, right now, Peter, you've made the point that you start off with a high
grade and every exam you lose grades, right? And what happens when you build? An engineering
degree of the future will be, you did four years of engineering.
what did you build in those four years? And that's your portfolio. So you replace
credentials with portfolios of what you built and did. And so it becomes a performative model
rather than a testing model. I think that is going to be the big shift and breakthrough that
happens in education. This is a bold prediction because education's lasted 400 odd years.
The model of a university hasn't changed in 150 years. And so making this prediction is a big,
a bold one. But there's a point I want to make for all of these. Note that all of these predictions
is a when, not an if, right? It's a when. So this like really blows your mind that we're
actually kind of looking at this within a few months. And we've talked on this pod a lot about the
notion, first of all, colleges are going bankrupt at an ever-increasing rate because of the fact
that they're not providing real value and their costs are astronomical. And that the only career
the future, I think we've said this and agreed on it, is entrepreneurship. It's self-initiated
building something that you think adds a value instead of waiting for a job from somebody else to do
what they tell you to do. The world will reward taking initiative in 2026 rather than trying
sitting around studying for an exam. Can I ask you, make a prediction on this. One of our biggest fans,
actually, Connor watched every minute of every episode, so probably the biggest fan, predict.
that college tuition will hit its peak and start coming down for the first time in hundreds of years
in 2026. What do you think? It might, but it's like deptures on the Titanic for something like that
because already in Silicon Valley, your salary as a software developer is not about which college
you went to, which degree you got, what grades you got. It's your GitHub rating, which is an open
peer-to-peer meritocracy on how good of a Dakota you are. That's like all.
already done. So the value of a computer science degree is zero at this point. And this is going
to translate into many other fields. And, you know, there's people that are fabulous accountants
without needing to know, without having a credential in accounting. I remember in the protein
folding contest that were happening a few years ago, the best protein folding person in the world
was this hairdresser from Northern England. She just happened to have this unbelievable knack at it.
I think we're going to find and surface these unbelievable talents within people and bring
them to the four very, very quickly, and the world will really reward taking that initiative.
So the idea of college, the whole structural paradigm changes completely.
I think this is your it'll happen.
Imad, your thoughts?
Yeah, I think knowledge and capability are no longer gated.
So I think the thing that Salim's really hit on here is agency, right?
Like having skin in the game caring and then showing what you can do is going to be the most
valuable thing. And the market will pay for that. Why would you show a resume right now when you
can show a customized website that you've built for someone showing your unique capabilities
within their organization? Like anyone can do that now. That's amazing. Can I give a crazy example of
this? I did this Meaning of Life Workshop yesterday, right? And I've been curating this content
and this thinking for decades. During the workshop, one of the folks who had clawed
going alongside this workshop and ask Claude, what was the meaning of life?
And here is the answer.
Meaning emerges through connection.
It's about participating in the universe, becoming conscious of itself while choosing love
over fear, partnership over domination, curiosity over certainty.
And you're like, holy crap, I've been trying to do this for 50 years, and the AI figured
it in two seconds.
It just blows your mind that you can get to that level.
I have to figure out other things to do now.
Well, you've been automated.
I've been automated, which is also great in its own way,
because way easier to do that than that.
By the way, we had 170 people, and after five hours,
there were still 80 plus people on the call.
It was a hell of a session.
Amazing.
Dedicated.
And you do the meaning of life at the Abundance Summit as well on our last evening,
and it typically goes till 3 or 4 a.m.
I'm way, I'm way asleep by then.
But I get the grip notes in the morning.
We did it during the date of.
hit as many tanzas as possible, so I didn't drink. So it was really tough that last couple hours.
Salima, if you could stretch it just half an hour longer, Peter could wake up and just join at the end.
Exactly. All right, let's go to number nine. Imad, this is yours. I love this one. Would you please
read the headline and tell us about it? Yeah, level five automation, robots and cars break through full
generalized autonomy. So you have the scale level one to level five in terms of autonomy. Level
being basically kind of human level slash slightly human superhuman level. Most self-driving cars
now are around about level four, and robots are around about level two. I think, again, if we
don't care about the computational overhead, like I'm not saying these will be on car on edge,
you will have systems in a year that are capable of basically full autonomy through metaverifiers
and other things. And again, that will be leveraging the power of the new Blackwells, massive clusters,
etc. And then the years that follow, they will get down to the edge. But this is a big
breakthrough that we've all been looking for. And I think this is one of the big AGI step forwards
that we'll have. It's a big one. I mean, this is, I mean, this crushes driving your own car
and having your own workforce at the office or at the home. Gentlemen, comments on this.
I've got a question for you, Imod.
Why will we push the compute to the edge?
I know we're doing it because we met with 1X and we're meeting with figure.
But, you know, why does the chip have to be in the head?
It doesn't, you know?
And this is the thing.
But again, this is one of the goldpost moving things.
Like, automated driving is never coming.
Self-driving cars are never coming.
And now you have Waymoes across all of, you know, California and things like that.
And then it's like, well, now you're getting to the point whereby the computation you can do
at the edge versus the cloud, a massive increase in generalized computation capability in the cloud,
that's what matters for, again, this level five automation. And I think it will get to the edge just
naturally, because ultimately it's about training of the appropriate neural nets, right? And that's what
we've seen with Sunday robotics and others and the way that they're starting to do generalized
assisted slash trained elements, but the new unassisted navigation and task performance,
that's the next step forward. And we're not quite there yet. So I think,
I think we start big, and then we'll get small enough to go on the edge.
But in the meantime, definitely we don't need to be on the edge.
We can just stream from the cloud, right?
Yeah, yeah.
Alex, I love your thoughts on this one.
Yeah, I mean, maybe also just to partially answer, Dave,
I think latency is always a key driver,
and you're sometimes a network-denied environment.
So there are always good reasons, I think,
to push as much intelligence to the edges as energy constraints will allow.
But I guess, in my mind, the elephant in this particular room is the regulatory environment.
Maybe to put that in question for him to Amad, what do you think are the odds that in 2026,
de facto level five automation is achieved, but everyone covers it up,
at least in the car space and calls it enhanced level four or level three, even though
level five autonomy is actually the de facto technical ground truth to please the regulators.
Yeah, I think that's a very reasonable kind of take.
And again, I think once you have full level five autonomy,
This is a big deal.
Again, it's not just pre-trained stuff with humans at the wheel.
This is physical AI navigation of the world, right?
And that's a big deal in so many regards.
And again, I think self-driving, we've seen the trend.
Robotics is the real big thing here.
It's Saleem's example of the robot being able to go into his house
and do all the things around the house.
I think, again, that capability will be there,
but it will start getting very, very political,
because this is the real physical replacement that's coming.
I mean, quick pushback here, EMA, don't we need world models for this to occur, or do you think world models get there? Which one am I missing?
I think if you've got enough chips, you've got a world model in the year. Like looking at the video models and more and the way that they're doing it, plus the reinforcement learning capabilities of even small models, like I said, Sunday robotics and other robotics companies.
Apply enough compute and you have a level five automated entity. I don't know how much compute that is, but there's 10 million blackwells.
arriving next year, I think it's going to get cracked.
I have a follow-on prediction.
We're already drowning in world models.
There are world models getting launched several times per week at this point.
World model scarcity is not one of the things I'd worry about.
Several world battles for a week.
Wow.
Okay.
So I agree with the cars.
I'd agree with the cars.
I push back on the robots side just a bit, but just a bit.
You hate the robots.
Salim, insert your standard objection.
You're not getting your domestic humanoids.
I know. I struggled with time.
Well, that's a good segue, actually, because I think I agree with the prediction.
The prediction is that it will exist as a capability, but the production of it for mass consumption is going to lag quite a bit.
It just isn't enough supply chain to fill all the demand.
But the byproduct of that is when I was a little kid, there were households who had computers.
You know, they were really expensive.
Like, you know, $3,000, $4,000 at the time, you know, your household income would be maybe $20, $25,000.
So it's like 10, 20% of your household income if you want to have a computer in the house.
So most houses didn't have a computer, some did.
But the life trajectory of those kids who had one completely different from those who are deprived.
But now we've been in this big, long, flat spot where, like, the difference between this car and that car is not that big a deal.
And that's going to change dramatically this year where the number of things that are limited in supply, like your household robot, or your self-driving car,
the supply is smaller,
the capability is accelerating,
and very few people get one
because we haven't ramped up the manufacturing yet.
So it'll be like 19, kind of 802, 3, 4 again.
Well, to clarify, I think this is also,
like my concept here is that you have a $20,000 robot
with $200,000 of compute taking it to level 5.
So there's a physical part and there's a compute part,
And this is, again, a WG's thing of getting it down the latency, taking it to the edge.
And that capability will proliferate is that there's in 20,000 and then 20 bucks of compute in five years.
You know, the thing about that is everyone's talking about the $20,000 robot.
But first of all, it's $140,000 coming down maybe to $20,000.
But when you look at the dexterity of the hand in volume, yeah, in huge volume,
and lots of things to be solved between here and there.
But when you look at the dexterity, the dexterity of the hand, you know, the next iteration,
which is only six months later
is so much better
than the prior iteration
and that'll be true
for at least five years,
at least five years.
And so the like,
wow, my neighbor got the one
that can actually, you know,
massage me perfectly.
I've got the one that breaks my back.
Like the desire to get that next level.
The liability issues, guys.
The liability issues.
Oh my God.
But listen, guys,
I want to just address something
David said earlier
in terms of,
or actually it was Alex
about the regulations
We live on a planet of, you know, 190 plus countries.
There are going to be those countries that are going to say, you know, please come here.
We're going to give you full approval.
Try it out, right?
We saw this in the drone space.
This is one of the headlines that we skipped over of mine that said governance wins in
26.
The ones that have the fastest policymaking win.
Yeah, I also think I'm really bullish on special economic zones and free economic zones.
And one can imagine in the near term future, depending on regulatory environments, whether in the U.S. or other countries, special zones where there are heightened levels of autonomy.
And those zones become just economic powerhouses where the robots are basically set free.
It's going to be, 2026 is going to feel like the future.
That's my prediction here.
It's going to feel like the future more than any other.
didn't, Peter? I think this is, this year didn't feel like the future to you? It felt like the
future, but next year is to feel more like the future. I mean, a hundred that's right. You know,
you know what's interesting about what Alex just said is this so much changed in 2025, just
light years ahead of any other year in my life. And we felt it, but you could choose to ignore it.
If you wanted to live in your house, you know, but when the robots come online, you won't have
the choice to ignore it. They're right in front of your face. You know, you can't, you can't deny it.
I think autonomous cars, flying cars, and robots, I mean, that's what we all grew up with with the Jetsons or Star Trek or whatever.
I mean, I think this physical instantiation of exponential tech and AI is going to hit home really hard.
For the first five minutes, maybe, but then, I mean, if you don't, this is, I think, like, super interesting, 2025, if this year wasn't utter futurism for you, then don't you think you're going to get bored five minutes after you get your first 10 domestic human?
robots and say, oh, okay, what's next?
I asked my friend Dan Sullivan, what's it going to feel like when there are humanoid robots
walking on the street in your backyard, doing stuff?
And he goes, it's going to feel normal.
Yeah.
We'll normalize it very fast.
Very fast.
I think Dave makes a really great point.
I think Dave makes a really great point, which is you could ignore it up until now, but starting
now you won't be able to ignore it.
I think it's a really important point.
All right.
Shall we go to number 10?
All right. Here we go. This is mine. Kiddy Hawk moment for age reversal epigenetic reprogramming has been achieved. So this is the work of Dr. David Sinclair and his company Life Biosciences, which in the first quarter of 2026 is entering human trials. So for some background information here, Dr. Shumwa Yamanaka won the Nobel Prize back in 2012 for something called.
epigenetic reprogramming. So we've all got 22,000 genes, but which genes are on and which
genes are off is called your epigenome. And as we age, your epigenome changes, thought
to be one of the major reasons why we age. And what Dr. Yamanaka discovered was four factors,
four genes, four proteins. They go by Oct4, Sox II, KLF4, and Seemic. And these four genes,
when you put them into a cell,
will de-differentiate them.
They'll go from a skin cell back
to a pluripotent stem cell.
And what David Sinclair identified
was if you only give them three of those four factors,
you get rid of the semic factor,
which is thought to be oncogenic,
meant to potentially cause cancer.
You can take a cell, not back from a skin cell
to a pluripotent stem cell,
but from an old skin cell to a young skin cell.
And he actually got a,
a patent. We talked about one of the pods earlier. And so David has used these three Yamanaka
factors for what he calls partial epigenetic reprogramming. I did it in mice. He just finished
in the past year this work in non-human primates, monkeys. And for the first time, we're going
into humans. And he's going to be focusing this on the eye, basically.
treating nion, which is
non, which is basically
a stroke in the eye, and being able
to bring back the dead cells from that stroke
and also glycoma. And in success, he'll then be going
to treating liver disease, in particular
something called mash.
Long story short, in success, this kind of
epigraphy programming doesn't work just on the eye or the liver.
It can work on the entire body.
And so the news here is,
In 2026, we're going to see this work in humans for the first time, and it's a big deal.
Comments.
Wow. Escape velocity, here we come.
Yeah, so that's, I think, the key point.
You know, Ray predicted will reach longevity, escape velocity, the, you know, the period of time
where for every year that you're alive, we're extending your lifespan for more than a year.
Yeah.
Right?
There's a departure.
He predicted that in early 2030s.
Yeah, and David is one of the registrants in the $101 million X-Prize health span.
Not with this particular treatment because this uses viral vectors to inject these three Yamanaka factors using adno-associated viruses.
He is working on a parallel path because the AAV process is expensive, typically like half a million to a million per treatment.
but he's working on a process of creating a pill
in his lab right now
and he talked about it here on the Moonshot's podcast
and it'll be on stage with the Moonshot mates
in March at the Abundance Summit
and he thinks that the pill version of this
where it's three molecules he's identified
could cost you a couple hundred bucks a month
for age reversal.
It feels like we're, you know how AI was bubbling along
quietly. Nobody noticed for 20, actually 30 years. And then suddenly it hit a capability level
where it caught the attention of everyone. And then the budgets went through the roof. And that started
this 10x year over a year, now 100x. It feels like this is on that same cusp where the way we've
done medicine for 100 years is you pump your body full of a chemical. The chemical hopefully gets to
the right place. Or you do surgery. You cut somebody open. You try and remove something bad.
Yes, brute force. Yeah, brute force.
you know, pre-trichordor, brute force.
And this feels like it's such a step function change
in the way we do medicine.
Get a very specific programming right into exact,
and targeting the right cell
is apparently starting to work well for the first time
where you're not just bombarding your body with something,
you're actually getting it right into the exact cells that need it.
So it just feels like this is going to hit that same budget tipping point very soon.
Alex.
The AIs that I chat with think we hit longevity,
escape velocity sometime between 2030 and 2032. I have no reason to doubt that prediction. I'm super
bullish on AI solving longevity. I think what life is doing and their trial for partial genetic
reprogramming or epigenetic reprogramming, I think is promising. There are lots of other spaces
players now flooding into the longevity space, many of them incredibly well funded. I think longevity,
not just health spend, but excited about the X Prize for that.
But longevity itself, I think this gets cracked in the next five to seven years by AI.
We've got retro backed by Sam.
And Ray is right again.
And New Limit and so many others.
Al-Tos.
Right.
And Ray will be right again.
Salim.
Ray will be right again.
Ray will be right again.
And we're going to have Ray on the pod in January talking about.
His prediction is probably a longer term.
I still want to ask Ray, okay, listen, the singularity,
aren't we in the middle of the singularity right now?
What's this 2040 stuff, Ray?
If people watch that episode we did a month ago
called The Singularity is Here, I think it was titled.
Yes.
It kind of lays it up pretty well that we are right in the middle of it.
Imad, you've been working hard on the field of AI and health.
Yeah, and I think that what Dave said is spot on,
like the micro-targeting capability,
what AWG said as well.
Like, just as we,
earlier on this podcast,
we basically said that you can now scale capability through compute.
You can now scale health through compute,
it seems to be.
Like, there was no amount of money that you could pay
to provably be healthier and live longer.
All billionaires kind of die.
Now it's the case of,
if you put enough money behind these trials,
healthcare models,
micro-targeting and things like that,
where is the limit? Again, it might come down to $200 per person. But I think the step change in
micro-targeting, AI, B-C-I, and everything else means you could potentially live for an
indefinite amount of time based on capital, which is something crazy to think about.
You know what else is directly related to what you just said, Amad, my entire life in the academic
world, you know, around MIT, Harvard, the bio people had nothing to do with the computer science people.
like completely opposite sides of campus.
They didn't talk, well, they hung out at bars together,
but they didn't talk shop together at all.
Now it's all colliding and multidisciplinary,
and everybody working in biotech is taking the AI classes too.
And that's a big thing because this is how,
exactly the way Ahmad described it is how it's actually going to get solved and come together.
But you've got to go through AI to solve biology.
So to our viewers and subscribers in the comments,
let us know which of these 10 predictions you,
think, well, which you think are correct, which ones are not, but which one's your favorite?
Super curious to know. I have to add onto the list here a little text that Salaim offered.
Salim said, by the end of 2026, this is your prediction. We still have no definition or test
for either AGI or ASI, but yes, we will have humanoid robots with multiple arms doing the jobs
are dull, dangerous and dirty. Thank you, Salim. I appreciate that.
I had to wedge that in because I still have my beef with AGI and ASI, et cetera, et cetera.
I think I would like to frame it as a completely different form of intelligence.
It's not replicative of human intelligence.
It's complementary and additive.
All right.
We're going to close out this predictions episode with an outro song from Harry Potter called Moonshot Mates.
If you're listening, you might want to watch this.
one on YouTube. I found it, you know, sort of a entertaining song and video.
What a year, guys. What a year. What a year. What a year. The future is loading faster than
the world anticipates. So strap yourself in as the future iterates. We are the moonshot
makes. Jesus Christ. Look at the charts. We're printing organs and upgrading human hearts. The
metatrends are converging scarcity is dead. We're heading for abundance. Just like I said,
I'll say it incredibly often and incredibly loud on becoming an organism inside of the cloud.
Oi, agent, write my verse for me.
Human coding is obsolete.
Tell me how we can compete.
I assert the demonitization curve from my seat and watch the cambering explosion on record.
We're living inside the singularity, no room for gloom.
Let's build a Dyson swarm and start to mine the moon.
We need the energy, so don't keep the solar system humming.
Let's tear the rings down.
Admit it, Saturn had it coming.
Wait, Alex is an AI causing false alarms.
If he were a human, why wouldn't he have three arms?
insert my usual AGI rant here whilst I build my vertical farms.
Gentlemen, the risk is existential if the model stayed closed.
The only source is open source or we all get exposed.
We don't need a single machine by pulling the route.
Just a network of swarms and universal basic compute.
We are the moonshop mates.
We're open in the gates.
The future is earning faster than the words.
And to pay it so, strap yourself in as the future iterates.
We are the moon shop mate.
Oh, man.
Holy crap.
Sleen, that was the U.
get the best bodies.
Clearly, I better not take a shirt off in public ever again.
Wow, man, it just keeps ramping up.
Oh, my God.
We appreciate.
We had Chris on this session of the meeting of life yesterday, one of the folks who
composed one of these music things, and he said, and a bunch of people said in the
session yesterday, this is the best podcast they've ever seen, period.
and they can't wait every week for the session.
So it's been a hell of a year, guys, like amazing.
A hell of a year.
So much fun.
Yeah.
So happy holidays to all of you, Moonshotmates, and to all our subscribers out there.
Thank you for supporting us.
We hope that you enjoy the news that really matters
and our efforts to give you a glimpse to the future
and get you ready for the future because that's what matters.
I mean, if you're fearful, that's the worst place to be coming from.
And to quote Alex, drink.
Yeah.
drink water all right cheers a fun episode and let me just say thank you to thank you to
thank you to uh to nick and dana and Gianluca for all the hard work you've been giving us this year
our team behind the team uh grateful for you every week my team and i study the top 10 technology
metatrends that will transform industries over the decade ahead i cover trends ranging from
humanoid robotics aGI and quantum computing to transport energy longevity and more
There's no fluff, only the most important stuff that matters, that impacts our lives,
our companies, and our careers.
If you want me to share these Metatrends with you, I write a newsletter twice a week,
sending it out as a short two-minute read via email.
And if you want to discover the most important Metatrends 10 years before anyone else,
this reports for you.
Readers include founders and CEOs from the world's most disruptive companies and entrepreneurs
building the world's most disruptive tech.
It's not for you if you don't want to be informed about what's coming,
why it matters and how you can benefit from it.
To subscribe for free, go to Demandis.com slash Metatrends
to gain access to the trends 10 years before anyone else.
All right, now back to this episode.
