Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - EP #3 Are Humans Headed Toward a Utopian or Dystopian Future? w/ Tim Urban

Episode Date: October 5, 2022

In this episode, Peter and Tim discuss how being curious can change the world.  You will learn about: The advantage of a curiosity mindset How far passion (vs. purpose) will take you If utopi...a exists  Tim Urban is one of the internet’s most popular writers with the success of his blog and website, 'Wait But Why.' He has garnered millions of unique page viewers, fans, and followers discussing topics ranging from procrastination to AI. Read Wait But Why. This episode is brought to you by Levels: real-time feedback on how diet impacts your health. levels.link/peter Consider a journey to optimize your mind and body by visiting Life Force. Listen to Moonshots & Mindsets on: Diamandis.com/podcast   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Sasquatch here. You know, I get a lot of attention wherever I go. Hey Sasquatch, over here! So, when I need a judgment-free zone, I go to Planet Fitness. Get started for $1 down and then only $15 a month. Offer ends April 12th. $49 annual fee applies. See Home Club for details. That's the sound of unaged whiskey transforming into Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey in Lynchburg, Tennessee. into Jack Daniel's Tennessee whiskey in Lynchburg, Tennessee. Around 1860, Nearest Green taught Jack Daniel how to filter whiskey through charcoal for a smoother taste, one drop at a time.
Starting point is 00:00:33 This is one of many sounds in Tennessee with a story to tell. To hear them in person, plan your trip at tnvacation.com. Tennessee sounds perfect. So we have a utopia in our future, potentially. We also have all this power to potentially screw it up for ourselves and really, really, really have a bad time in the future. And so I'd see it as I don't see this much in between. I don't think we'd go to 2060 in a time machine and get out and say it's okay here. It's either going to be absolutely mind-blowingly awesome or like perhaps like really awful. And you'd say, it's okay here. It's either going to be absolutely mind-blowingly awesome, or perhaps really awful, and you'd say, oh my God, we didn't know how good we had it in 2022. That's how I see
Starting point is 00:01:10 it. And a massive transform to purpose is what you're telling the world. It's like, this is who I am. This is what I'm going to do. This is the dent I'm going to make in the universe. I'm going to make in the universe. Welcome to Mindsets and Moonshots. My guest today is Tim Urban, one of the most popular writers on the internet. Tim is the creator of the blog Wait But Why, which gets millions of unique page views, thousands of patrons, a bunch of very famous people on it, from Elon Musk and Sam Harris to Susan Cain, and of course, Evan Williams. Tim's blog, Wait But Why, combines deep analytical long-form writing with an incredible range of topics and engaging illustrations.
Starting point is 00:01:57 It manages to inform all of us. If you haven't seen Wait But Why, it's a treat for your mind and your cognitive surplus. As Fast Company said, Tim has captured a level of reader engagement that even the new media giants would be envious of. Tim, a couple of seconds about you, a graduate of Harvard University, I forgive you for that. You are an entrepreneur, co-founder of Arbor bridge how many students has arbor bridge uh prepared and tutored order magnitude good question um uh started arbor bridge with um my friend andrew finn and we uh sold the company uh last year so i don't know the exact numbers um take a guess probably i would say over time we've tutored um we've probably tutored 3,000 or 4,000 students, maybe 5,000 students.
Starting point is 00:02:51 It's, you know, it's a small, high-touch company. You know, we work with a few hundred a year. Nice. And Wait But Why is on its ninth year, started in 2013. You've been on the TED stage. Yeah, I can't believe that, but yes. Yes. Yeah, Wait But Why is 2013. So yeah, it's coming up on year nine. And yeah, I did TED a couple of years after that in 2016. Never again. If you had to guess how many more years of Wait
Starting point is 00:03:18 But Why do you have? Is it 10? Is it 50? Is it 100? That's a great question. Well, let's do an optimistic and pessimistic. The pessimistic, I'll say, well, really pessimistic, you know, medium pessimistic, I would say 40, which is, you know, I'm still publishing stuff into my late 70s, which I hope, I have no intention of stopping making stuff through the platform, whether it's podcasts or blog posts or books or whatever. It's just like, that's what I like to do. So that's medium pessimistic because I could obviously die before that. But then optimistic, it's like, well, you know, I'm talking to the right guy here about this because, I mean, I don don't know a hundred years only because
Starting point is 00:04:06 i feel like if just so let's just discuss here so if i'm 140 some some cool shit has happened right like like we're not in today's world anymore we're plugged into each other's brains yes we're uploading ourselves right so am I really writing blog posts at that point? Like, what, is that still a thing at all? Right. Like, but I consider, for me, I consider WaitButWhy just like a platform where I can like express ideas and put out content. So, you know, yeah, we'll see.
Starting point is 00:04:39 I would consider the sort of the longevity of WaitButWhy is a function of how long are blogs still relevant? How long are you still passionate about it? And ultimately, you know, is there a new form in which you're affecting people's minds with cool ideas? Yeah. Yeah. I would say that like it's blogs being relevant. Probably not because it's like, what's a blog?
Starting point is 00:05:01 But I would say in 100're, if people are living a long time, people are still going to want to express themselves, right? There's still going to be certain people who they decide their calling in life is to, you know, learn stuff and explain it or think about stuff and, and, and synthesize it and put it out there or make people laugh or put out, you know, and whatever the various kind of, and, and so I feel like that will still be a thing. And so I imagine I would still be interested in doing that kind of stuff back that down then. But, you know, I do think that, you know, we're going to always want to hear from
Starting point is 00:05:34 each other in some way or another. All right. So at least the next year, maybe the next hundred, we'll find out. Okay. Can you imagine if there's like, sorry, but when, how about when we can think with each other, are there going to be like, I always think about Neuralink and stuff, you know, we can, oh, you and I could think together, maybe a group of four, but what if there's like a thinking broadcast where like someone is thinking to 10 million people? Like that's weird. It's kind of intense. I think that's actually what life is, right? You're a collection of 30 trillion cells that operate together as a single organism. You call Tim, I call Peter. And, you know, so what happens when we connect 8 billion people's minds? Do we become conscious on a new level? And then, you know, what part of that conscious brain do
Starting point is 00:06:17 you want to be? I mean, that's, I think, where we're going. I mean, you've spent a lot of time at Neuralink, not the topic I wanted to have the conversation on, but one that I absolutely love. Yeah, it's fascinating and weird, but I agree. There could be some crazy emergent properties we don't even know about yet. There will be.
Starting point is 00:06:35 Hey, thanks for listening to Moonshots and Mindsets. I want to take a second to tell you about a company that I love. It's called Levels, and it helps me be responsible for the food that I eat, what I bring into my body. See, we were never designed as humans to eat as much sugar as we do. And sugar is not good for your brain or your heart or your body in general.
Starting point is 00:06:55 LEVELS helps me monitor the impact of the foods that I eat by monitoring my blood sugar. For example, I learned that if I dip my bread in olive oil, it blunts my glycemic response, which is good for my health. If you're interested, learn more by going to levels.link backslash Peter. Levels will give you an extra two months of membership. It's something that is critical for the future of your longevity. All right, let's get back to the conversation in the episode. So I want to talk about mindset, particularly talk about curiosity mindset. So if you don't mind, let's dive in because I think wait, but why is a curiosity play? So let me ask a broad question. I definitely think I probably do, right? I mean, a curiosity I don't know, mindset is one in which like you are actively interested in pulling information in from the world, right?
Starting point is 00:07:52 And adding to your little knowledge tower in your brain, adding, adding onto it or whatever. I try to think where it actually comes from because sometimes i think it's a um like for me it's i almost would call it like an uh a desire to understand things that i don't understand but that desire is kind of binary where like i i haven't dug into crypto yet in the full sense i would need to to write a really good blog post about it. And I find myself not actually that curious. Like I, there's some part of me that's like, I do want to understand what's, what really the big picture is here with something like crypto, what is really going on. Um, but because I haven't gotten that tree trunk of knowledge yet, where I have like a basic understanding, it, it basic understanding, it's not that interesting to me. But then once I do, once I start learning about something,
Starting point is 00:08:49 say like brain machine interfaces, and you know, I don't know anything about that. And then I start reading about it, I start learning about it and talking to the engineers and I start to understand and it becomes kind of the structure in my brain that gets developed that knows how to think about that. And now I suddenly become, it lights up my curiosity. I want to learn everything. I want to read everything. I want to put it all in my AI is another thing. When I started doing that deep dive, you know, I couldn't get it. I read a bunch of what you had to say about that. So I can talk a lot more about it, but that's kind of some initial thoughts. Well, I mean, I don't think everybody has this level of curiosity that you have and goes as deep as you do. Do you?
Starting point is 00:09:47 Your focus has to be on like, you have, you get dopamine hits from learning things like in the short term. So there's a short term thing where you just like, you like learning something new. You see an article, you don't know anything about it. You're excited to read it and it feels great to, oh my, I'm learning about this. And then you go on Wikipedia and you go on a spiral and you start learning about stuff on the internet and you're watching YouTube videos on this topic. And three hours later, you learn so much about it and it feels great, but there's also kind of a macro project that I think can drive curiosity, which is you have this, um, this life
Starting point is 00:10:13 story, which is that I'm a learner and I, and you're so satisfied by how much you've learned in the past and how, and it's so fun to add to that and to continue to learn in the future. So, um, so, so I think, um, I think it's a mindset that not everyone has, but I think even amongst people who have a curiosity mindset, it can emerge from totally different places. So I want to dig deeper in here because it's really important. I want to learn from you about this. I honestly, truly want to learn from you about this because I view you as a very curious person who has a methodology for digging in and then making use of what you've learned to make the, you know, uplift humanity, right. To inspire people with
Starting point is 00:10:53 that. If we define a curiosity mindset as, as you know, asking why a lot and not taking things for face value. Is that a reasonable definition? I think it's one definition. What other definition? I think like, well, you could ask how, like someone who might be saying they see an engine and they say, how does that work? I need to know. I need to know. I want to take it apart, put it back together, right? And that's different than why, right? They might be bored by why, right?
Starting point is 00:11:28 They might want to know how, how, how, right? Yeah. Or even what. They might want to know. They might be really curious to know where all the countries are and all the big cities are in the world or know all the historical events as well as they can. And so that's kind of a, that's what curiosity, right? They want to know, they want to kind of, so why curiosity is a type of curiosity that
Starting point is 00:11:53 there's probably a lot of crossover that how people probably also are interested in the why often. But I think the why is, I guess, you know, it gets a little semantic because you could say that, you know, why is the world the way it is? Well, you have to learn how it works and then you can understand why it is. Right. But there's certain like there are certain elements of like getting into the weeds with ethics, for example, is like some people are cannot get enough. Right. It's endlessly interesting. They want to understand what makes right and wrong and and how we can live ethically together and what the most just kind of ways to do things are. I like it.
Starting point is 00:12:31 I think it's kind of interesting. But in that area, like, I feel like there's a lot of why there, right? That's kind of a lot of... And I think I'm, you know, I know the name of my site is Wait But Why, but I think I'm probably more a how person myself. Do you remember the first time you got intensely curious about something? I mean, that you dug in and it became somewhat of an obsession to find out the why, how, where, or what about something? Was it as a kid?
Starting point is 00:13:08 Were you born with it? You know, I've always liked the feeling of something that was confusing becoming clear. And then it becomes this incredibly fun mental toy. And the dopamine hits from it's clear. And suddenly you feel so smart when you think about it and you can explain it to others so my grandfather sat me down once and i was like five and he was like so you know you can multiply anything any two-digit number by 11 uh very easily and i was like oh yeah he's like yeah in your head i was like okay and he's like all right so you just
Starting point is 00:13:43 add the two numbers. So if you're going to do 23 times 11, you add two and three together. It's five. You open the two and three and you put the five in the middle. 253. Do it with 36.
Starting point is 00:13:56 You know, do it with 36. 396. And I was like, just, right? So I'm five. And I was so excited about this new trick. I told it to everyone, probably annoyingly. And, and it was like, you know, this boost of confidence, this boost of like intellectual excitement, right? So that's a little five year old mini version of I think the same exact thing I'm doing today when I will dig really deep into understanding how cryonics works. And first I'm like, what's this icky topic. And it seems like it's full of weirdos. And then I start reading about it and then it clicks and I start
Starting point is 00:14:35 to be, you know, I read the Alcor FAQ, which is a great, really thorough page. And as I'm going there, it's all these holes are starting to fill in and I'm starting to develop this understanding the structure in my head for the topic. And now, boom, it's like the 11 trick. I'm like, okay, I love this topic. Now, now I want to learn a lot more. Let me read a ton of stuff about this. Now, how can I now, and then there's a lot of excitement for me. It wasn't just learning the 11 trick.
Starting point is 00:14:59 It was explaining it to everyone else. That's a weird me thing, right? I happen to have that instinct. Um, I want to share it. I want to, I want to, I want other people to know it. I want to talk about it to everyone else. That's a weird me thing, right? I happen to have that instinct. I want to share it. I want other people to know it. I want to talk about it with my friends. That's why I blog. So I could just read about cryonics and learn about it.
Starting point is 00:15:12 A lot of people do, and they stop there. I happen to be someone who now I have this instinct where it's like, I'm only halfway there. Now I got to tell everyone that I know about this cool new thing or people who are interested. And so a blog is a great tool for that, obviously. So now I'll spend time getting it together. And I'm so excited to kind of share the same dopamine hit that I got the same epiphany and dose of clarity with a bunch
Starting point is 00:15:37 of other people. So I, I posit that having a curiosity mindset is a good thing. That it's going to help you in a multitude of ways. And just being passive and accepting the information coming in puts you in a less successful competitive position in life. Do you believe that? You're saying that not being curious puts you in a less competitive position? I'm saying being curious has you in a less competitive position? I'm saying being curious has a lot of advantages to it and benefits, especially for an entrepreneur. I totally agree. And the reason is like if you think about – if you're not curious, you go to school. You're forced to learn stuff because you have to spit it out on the exam.
Starting point is 00:16:27 But when I'm not curious and I'm forced to memorize something, it's gone like a day later, right? So it's when I'm curious that my actual consciousness like wraps itself around this thing and thinks about it. If I'm not curious,
Starting point is 00:16:42 it's some other dumb part of my brain can memorize it and spit it out and I'll forget it. So A'm not curious, it's some other dumb part of my brain can memorize it and spit it out and I'll forget it. So a, you're not really learning in school and then you're not really learning after school. You might learn in, you know, from life experience, of course, everyone learns throughout their life, but, um, your knowledge of how the world works and how history works and how, um, and, and, you know, all the kind of new things that are cropping up throughout your life, it stops because you're not going to put the, it takes effort to learn new things. And, and, and we're not going to just put in effort for no
Starting point is 00:17:18 reason in school. We do. Cause we have to a job and a job, you know, you know, ideally you're putting an effort cause you like to, but if you're you but if you need to get paid then it at worst you're going to put an effort because you have to you're not going to put an effort to learn if you don't like it right no one's making you do it so curiosity is a quality that makes people want to learn and like learning and so therefore they're going to learn a lot again and again and again And retain their learning and apply that learning. I love this. I have a personal example. When I was in medical school, my third year of medical school, I took a leave of absence because the idea of becoming a real doctor and an intern and being responsible for people's lives scared the hell out of me. And I went back to MIT and I did an aerospace engineering degree. And so I was in something called unified
Starting point is 00:18:09 engineering. And I was a graduate student with all the sophomores and all the sophomores are like in the back of the class. I'm in the front row because I love space and I want to learn everything I could. And it was a very different experience learning with that curiosity mindset. Like, why does that happen? You know, why do rocket engines work that way? Why do wings have lift in that design? So you're right. That is a hugely powerful element.
Starting point is 00:18:38 I have a friend, my friend Noah, who is every bit as smart as I am. Like, we're very equal in so many ways. We took a class together called the magic of numbers. And he does not like that topic. It was, it was about probability. You know, we learned, we learned how to, it was, it was a probability. I mean, we would learn how to, you know, take if there's 10 things and you have to, you know, organize them in a certain way, you take factorials, you do 10, choose six or, you know, this kind of thing. Um, and I loved it. I thought it was delicious and super interesting.
Starting point is 00:19:14 And like, it just clicked with, it clicked with how I think and the kind of stuff I'm good at. And I aced the class, which is rare in college for me. I was a terrible college. Aced the class, you know, it was a breeze. And I, and so I was talking to him the other, he was his least favorite class and we were talking about it. And I was talking about the actual things in the class and he was like, how do you remember anything from that class? And I was like, I remember
Starting point is 00:19:36 everything from the class. And again, it's he, meanwhile, we talk about other classes of his other things and he can tell you every single thing he learned. So it really is like there's some part of your brain that retains that is not necessarily on when you're being forced to learn something. Another example of this is if you read an article. So I could use, I might use crypto as an example. Right now, because crypto is a topic where I feel disoriented. Again, I know the basics. I know that I could explain the kind of idea about how blockchain works.
Starting point is 00:20:16 I could explain a lot of the theories about why this might be important in the future and why decentralized things can be a big deal. I don't really understand it. I don't have it. It doesn't I don't have all the analogies that I have in my head for things when I really understand things. And I am. And it's all a little icky, right? I haven't like dug in. I don't know where things are going when I buy something on Coinbase. What's actually going on behind the scenes when I don't know that. Now it's the whole thing kind of is this gray fog. So so if I read an article about crypto right now, and it's not a really big explanatory article, it's just kind of like an opinion about a certain kind of thing, or I'm hearing a conversation at a
Starting point is 00:20:55 lunch and the people are arguing about, you know, the future of Ethereum and whether it's going to be whatever. I'm not actually going to learn very much, even if I'm listening to every word, even if I'm trying to memorize every word, because I don't have the tools yet to learn on this topic. This is a, you know, you can think of knowledge as kind of like a tree, right? This is, I think Elon Musk, I think is the first person who I heard talk about this. right? This is, I think Elon Musk, I think is the first person who I heard talk about this. If knowledge is a tree, um, you need a tree trunk before you can add leaves and branches and twigs. Because if you, if you read an article, it's like, it's like a leaf and you, what are you going to stick it to? It falls down, falls to nothing. If you have a tree trunk, now you can start sticking stuff to it. And of course it's interesting. All the articles are suddenly fascinating because,
Starting point is 00:21:44 oh, I see where that fits in. Oh, that's enhancing this part of the tree trunk. So cool. Otherwise, so. So it's the same concept where it's like if you if you're, if you don't have a tree trunk, because we think, oh, I'm not interested in this thing. And therefore I don't learn when I write, but it can go the other way, because you don't understand it, you're not interested. So crypto will flip from a, not that interesting topic to a fascinating topic for me as soon as I get my tree truck and then I'll start learning. Yeah. So it's interesting, right? The idea that
Starting point is 00:22:15 if you're curious about a subject, it's prepping your brain to receive data and information and actually engage with it and store it. And it's when you're asking questions and getting answers and you get, like you said, that dopamine hit and it locks it in. I mean, the neurochemistry of learning is extraordinary. I want to stick on the subject of the benefits of curiosity. So enhanced learning is definitely one. If you're curious, you're going to likely learn things and apply it more. Other benefits of curiosity? Yeah. I think it's not just that you're going to likely learn things and apply it more. Other benefits of curiosity? Yeah. I think you're not, it's not just that you're going to learn and apply more.
Starting point is 00:22:49 You're going to explore more in life. You know, you're going to, you know, you're going to go outside your comfort zone. You're going to, you're going to leave your comfort zone because it's, you're curious. Look, there's, there's, there's a negative, there's a, there's a negative aspect of leaving your comfort zone for almost everyone. And the question is, curiosity can be a positive aspect of leaving it. And if it's strong enough, it can outweigh the negative aspects of leaving it, right? I mean, it's just the fear that we have of leaving our comfort zone, but also just the energy it requires. but also just the energy it requires. And, and, and, but, but so, so curiosity can thrust us out of our comfort zone, whether that's in trying new things, trying new hobbies or skills,
Starting point is 00:23:31 traveling to new places, meeting new kinds of people, right? I mean, curiosity can lead to a lot more friends over time, but also I think this is a really important thing. You know, the most important thing for happiness in all the studies is relationships, close relationships, right? One of the best qualities someone can have is curiosity about other people. And love that, love that. And when you're a really curious person, not only are they going to, you know, be out there meeting more people, right? And, and, but they're going to, when they're in a conversation, they're going to be actually interested. They're going to be listening to what's being said. They're going to ask questions. It's amazing how, if you, if you just approach, if you, sometimes you almost forget a curious person to pull out, pull out your curiosity in that moment,
Starting point is 00:24:18 when you're meeting someone, pull it out, see where it takes you. And it's amazing how close you're going about to get with that person, because they're going to love you because they're going to think, wow, this person, you know, it's so noticeable when someone genuinely cares about what you're saying and they're asking good questions. And you're like, wow, what an awesome person. All they're doing is they're applying their curiosity to this. So you'll not just meet more people and try new things and travel to new places. But when you meet people, you'll dig deeper. When you travel to places, you'll learn the history. You'll, you'll talk to locals. You'll actually, you'll soak in the experience much more than if you travel with not curious, without curiosity. So,
Starting point is 00:24:53 yeah. One way to think about it is you don't know if you're living your best life, if you're stuck doing what you're doing and with the people you're with. And there is, as you said, there's a cost to, maybe you are, maybe you are spending the time with the most extraordinary people in your life, doing the most amazing job you'll ever do in your life. But you'll never know that if you don't, you know, if you aren't curious and look around. And so it's a chance to, uh, to truly explore, uh, your passions, your purpose, and maximizing your happiness. It's a fantastic benefit of curiosity.
Starting point is 00:25:30 Yeah, and otherwise, you're going to stick with what you did first, with what people around you are doing, with what you thought you were going to do when you were seven, with what your parents want you to do. Yeah, exactly. With who you grew up with, with who you work with. And there's a very small chance that that's the best life for you, right? And so you're, you're, you're just going to,
Starting point is 00:25:47 you know, yeah, it's exactly what you said. Yeah. Uh, and that's probably, you know, out of all the, all the benefits for curiosity, for me, that's probably the most, uh, compelling in terms of, uh, magnitude of impact on an individual, I would say. I would say you've had another benefit of curiosity, which is it's led you to meet, and it's along the same lines of this, but led you to meet some amazing people. I think, you know, Wait But Why led you to a relatively strong relationship with Elon and his companies and Neuralink and so forth. So would you say the more curious you are, the more sort of unique opportunities or, you know, good luck comes your way? Yeah. I mean, I think getting out of your comfort zone and trying new things is the best way to
Starting point is 00:26:46 trying new things is the best way to stumble upon something you happen to be really good at and, and really like. And when you find that thing you're really good at and you really like, um, you were, you know, a lot more is going to happen. Uh,
Starting point is 00:26:57 it's going to, it's going to, yes, you're going to meet great people through it. You're going to feel more gratified, probably will be good for your relationships because you'll be happier more satisfied, and you can give more time to others. And, and you'll probably will be, you know, usually when you're doing that, when you do really good work that actually can have a really good impact on others, you know,
Starting point is 00:27:17 so, so, so yeah, I mean, I think, I think it's not necessarily my curiosity in my wait, but why work. Because I think you can do lots of work, whether it involves curiosity or not. But it was my curiosity in general, I think, that led me to continue to search and try a bunch of things. When I first blogged in 2005, when a friend of mine was like, you can put something on the internet on your own page. I was like, wow, really? And it was like crazy. Blogger had just started. The site blogger was like this revelation.
Starting point is 00:27:52 People forget at the time. It was like no one knew how to put something on the internet themselves without like a developer. Blogger was like, wow, anyone could just from their computer. Just suddenly that's my webpage. It was crazy. So I started doing it. But like when I saw that, like I lit up and I didn't know I was going to be, uh, drawn to it. I didn't know it was going to be something I really liked or not. It was just like, I want
Starting point is 00:28:12 to try that. Right. And so, um, it's, it's, it's that kind of attitude of like something new. Let me try it. Maybe I'll love it is, think it's a good way to stumble upon things. So final subject on curiosity for me, your advice for people. We've said being curious is got advantages. We named a couple. How do you advise someone to become more curious? Are they tricks or, or, you know, what would someone, how would they change or shape their mindset to become more curious? What would they do on a daily basis? Any, any advice? Yeah, I think so. I really think that, um, there's very few people who are not curious people about anything.
Starting point is 00:29:04 I think everyone, if you actually think about, something is grabbing you, right? Something is interesting to you. Something is delicious. You can't stop watching this YouTube video. You can't look away from something, right? Everyone's curious. Everyone has curiosity.
Starting point is 00:29:21 But some people, as part of their identity, you and I and i for example we both are very openly very proudly you know curious people other people i think they have given up on themselves as a curious person they've actually kind of they've um they have uh they pruned the branches of their tree yeah they've made their own identity as someone who I don't care about. That's boring. And this is what I was saying before about the tree trunk is I think what it looks like is some people are curious, naturally, and that leads them to learn and I'll do all this stuff and explore all these things and stumble upon great things. And other people are just not curious.
Starting point is 00:30:05 And then they don't. And I don't think that's what it is. I think it's that some people have built up a confidence in their own, in their some kind of confidence that has made curiosity a fun thing and made them believe in their own curiosity and believe that curiosity will lead them to good things. And so now they run with it. And other people gave up on gave up on themselves as a curious person. And again, I use this tree trunk example, because I can see it in myself, I will think that I'm not curious about a topic crypto, I'll think I'm not curious about a topic. And I know from experience now, that that's not true. It's I don't have my tree trunk yet. And that when I had my tree trunk, I will realize this, where is this topic been my whole life. And so I think people who think they're bored by things, I think that they simply, they haven't gotten the basics
Starting point is 00:30:51 of it yet. And that no one has the basis of stuff when they're born, right? You have to, everyone at some point learns and you can do that too. There's nothing stopping you from getting a tree trunk on any topic. And I think you'll be shocked how much curiosity will spring out of you that you didn't realize was there. So someone said to me once, like, if you, just as like the last point here, like, if you, it's like, it's a choice a lot of the time to be curious. curious. Um, well, one of the best ways to be charismatic is to, when you're talking to someone, ask yourself, what is fascinating about this person and be on a mission to find it out, be on a mission to say, I will figure out what is fascinating about this person. And if you go on that, if you go on that mission, what will happen is, you know, it's like start forcing yourself to go on the mission. But a second later, you will find you're in a great conversation. You are, you're, you're actually probably actually,
Starting point is 00:31:50 wow, this is much more interesting. And I actually do want to keep learning about this now. And they'll, they of course will think you're the best person in the world because of how an incredible listener you are and all of this. So that's an example for interpersonal, but I think you can, you can do that, apply that anywhere. Like, for example, if you're listening to a lecture on something you don't care about or a board, I mean, maybe asking the question, there is something here that's useful to me. I'm going to find that thing that's useful to me on this, on this topic, whatever it might be. That's, would you agree that that's, yeah. Okay. It was interesting, in one of your, in one of your Wait But Why cartoons, which I loved, was about kids.
Starting point is 00:32:30 Let me just read this. It says, when kids repeatedly ask why, they're trying to see the underlying reasoning behind what they've been, what they're told by authorities, because I said so, rejects the instinct and says, stop reasoning and obey. We then become adults, only know how to trust authorities other than ourselves. That was fascinating. And we're all inherently curious as kids, but a lot of people turn that off as they grow up. So there's actually a lot of research about, there's been some amazing studies where they track five-year-olds like a
Starting point is 00:33:07 same group of five-year-olds and they have a certain criteria for whether they have you know kind of creative instincts whether they are creative um and then they track the same group when they're 20 and it's like it's some like 25. So there's some pretty high number of the five year olds that are very creative. And then it plummets to like a 10th of that number when they're 20. And it's that because I think we have the creativity trained out of us. I mean, what is creativity? It's it's it's original thinking, it's making something new, you're creating, right? You're not copying, it's the opposite of creativity is you're going to photocopy the way something's already been done. You're going to follow an existing recipe, which is again, fine most of the time, but there's
Starting point is 00:33:52 sometimes when it's good to be creative, to, to, to, to make your own reasoning, to make your own art, to make your own, um, new ideas, right? Which is, it's a hard thing to do. And kids, when they're saying why, why, why, What they're trying to do is understand how are conclusions built? You know, it's the same thing when I said about, you know, an engine. There are certain people that will want to take the engine apart and see how it's put together. And when you, you know, Richard Feynman says anything that I can't, like, I think he says anything that I can't construct myself, I don't understand. I think there's some version of that. And it's this idea where the kid is trying to take apart the conclusion. Their parents say, this is what you have to do. This is what's important in life. You know, you're, here's
Starting point is 00:34:33 how you're a good person. The kid says, why they're trying to say, well, they want to understand the pieces of that puzzle so they can make their own. And if you, if, um, and that is this instinct, which is the heart of creativity. It's the instinct to reason from first principles to, to, um, be able to take the axioms that you see and that, you know, and the very basic things and then build conclusions from them. And kids are trying to basically say, help me become a good conclusion builder, a good, um, you know, or good reasoner. And what parents and teachers say, and society in general kind of says, is because I said so, right? They say, don't hurt yourself reasoning, leave that to the authorities. And your job is to
Starting point is 00:35:16 obey, to obey authority, essentially. And then they go to school, where, you know, they are trained specifically to, you know, conform. Everyone's going to sit in these rows of seats and we're going to answer the same exact questions on the test. And, you know, this is kind of Seth Godin talks about how that, that, that was a remnant of a really old, um, system that was built in the industrial era to try to create assembly line workers.
Starting point is 00:35:54 And so, yeah, I think a lot of these instincts are trained out of us. And then once they're trained out of us, we don't use those muscles. We don't practice with them. We lose our confidence in them. We forget that we ever even had them. And we don't think of ourselves as a creative person. And we don't think of ourselves as a creative person. And we don't think of ourselves as original. And sometimes they'll still have original thoughts, but you don't trust them. You assume, well, if this were such a good business idea, it would have been done.
Starting point is 00:36:14 If this were, if you just assume, well, conventional wisdom is smarter than I am. Because that's what you're, Again, that's obey the authority. Conventional wisdom is the ultimate because society said so. I think it's a great practice for grownups to try to bring back that muscle and realize that conventional wisdom is quite dumb. On the authorities, often the way things are supposed to be is often not very well thought out. Sometimes it stems back to the industrial era,
Starting point is 00:36:48 you know, and yeah, a lot of things can happen. And I think it's, you know, creativity and curiosity are the two elements that are sort of trained out of us or is silenced in us, so to speak, because we conform to society better. Tim, I want to turn the conversation now to passion and purpose, something I'm on a mission to help people find their passion and purpose. And let's start with a question.
Starting point is 00:37:22 How do you see the difference between passion and purpose? Do you have a distinction between the two? Well, I think passion is internal, right? Passion is what do you, what grabs you? What do you like? And I think it's totally valid to say I have one life and what I really like is going to be my purpose. And the truth is I often tell people, you know, some people think I need to make impact. So I should
Starting point is 00:37:50 do something that's like very directly impactful. I should, you know, you know, say that, you know, some kind of philanthropic thing and maybe that maybe, but for example, I didn't do that. Right. I was like, uh, I'm going to follow what, and I like writing, and I'm having fun. That was honestly fun. Me having fun was my main instinct here. I'd like to be like, oh, I wanted to explain things and really help. Yes, also, but if it weren't fun, I wouldn't have done it. But by doing something I really liked and that was really fun, it ended up actually
Starting point is 00:38:24 having an impact that I couldn't quite see when I started. And I think that goes for all kinds of people in all kinds of professions. If there's something that just you love, that's really grabbing you. So passion, I think that is, I think that is enough for a lot of people. And I don't think you should have to feel like you need more than that to say, that's also my purpose. This is grabbing me to this extent. And I feel this passion. That's my purpose. Now, I think you could also argue that if you wanted to, if, if, if you felt that, um, so some people would say, I think that you need, you know, purpose should, should be something that is not just about you and what you like, but how it
Starting point is 00:38:58 impacts others, right? So it's passion is what you, how, how, how it feels for you. And then impact is how it affects others. And when you have a combo of something that is both good for you, it is passionate on your end, and it's also a good impact on others. Now that's a purpose, right? So I think that's kind of an answer a lot of people would say, that you need that middle of the Venn diagram between passionate impact and that's purpose.
Starting point is 00:39:21 I don't particularly think that. I think that to me, I think what you're really passionate about is a good enough purpose for you right there. Hey everybody, I hope you're enjoying this episode. I'll tell you about something I've been doing for years. Every quarter or so, having a phlebotomist come to my home to draw bloods, to understand what's going on inside my body. And it was a challenge to get all the right blood draws and all the right tests done. So I ended up co-founding a company that sends a phlebotomist to my home to measure 40 different
Starting point is 00:39:51 biomarkers every quarter, put them up on a dashboard so I can see what's in range, what's out of range, and then get the right supplements, medicines, peptides, hormones to optimize my health. It's something that I want for all my friends and family, and I'd love it for you. If you're interested, go to mylifeforce.com backslash Peter to learn more. Let's get back to the episode. Would you then describe Wait But Why and your writing career as a passion or a purpose or both for you? I think it was started as a passion, and it has become both a passion and a purpose, I think. And maybe if it hadn't felt like a purpose, if it just felt, you know, maybe I would have gotten bored of it. And in a way that I know that now I won't, because I know that it, you know,
Starting point is 00:40:34 knowing that it impacts others is a huge part of what fuels and continues to make it a passion. I want to dig a little bit deeper here. If I were to ask you, I'll ask you this question. Do you know your purpose in life? There's a great quote that I love. Mark Twain says, you know, there are two important days in your life, the day that you're born and the day that you find out why. That is a good quote. Yeah. So I think purpose is a that that we tell about ourselves in our lives and it helps us feel like there's meaning and it helps us feel like um you know it's almost it's almost tied to some concept that there's some higher force right and we were put on this earth for a reason and all i'm not sure i quite see it that way i I see, I, I do like, did I do it? Does everyone have a purpose, a purpose,
Starting point is 00:41:29 you know, for, for what? It's almost like there has to be some kind of higher thing for there to be a purpose. It's like, otherwise, like, is there a purpose for every monkey? Right? Like, you know, if we're just kind of animals surviving and getting by, I think human civilization is so cool because you can actually feel like you have a purpose and you can, but this is part of why I go back to passion where I'm like, passion is real because that's how you feel. And if you're loving what you're doing, I think that you're a enjoying your one life, right? That's important. If you're doing something that's good for the world, but you hate it, I don't think you succeeded. I think you died and you didn't have fun and enjoy your one life.
Starting point is 00:42:08 So I think enjoying your own life. And secondly, I believe that when people are people who are doing what they're passionate about are almost always having a positive impact on others, right? Unless you're making, you know, super weapons or something. But so, but, but like, so, so I, I think that, you know, if you're passionate about it and you're in a workplace that you're, people are going to feed off that you're going to impact the people around you. You're going to make good things. You're going to, you're going to create good stuff. You're going to, if you're working or you're not creating stuff, you're working again, you're working as a, as a caretaker, but you're passionate about it. You're going to be so good at that, right? You're going to, um, so what people, what people say is that, you know,
Starting point is 00:42:43 yes, I completely agree. Passion is emotional energy that allows you to have a great time and it fuels you and you're in your unique ability in many times. But when you connect passion and purpose, I guess what conventional wisdom says is that gives you not only happiness, but fulfillment in life, that you've done something meaningful by whatever stretch of whatever measure there is. What would you say purpose is? I would say purpose is rooted in passion, but it is doing something that you feel is going to make a positive, lasting impact on the things that you care about. It could be raising your kids. It could be cleaning up your community. But I think one of the most important things is a purpose-driven life gives fulfillment and also fuels you to do as well as you can in the things that you value. So I'm really looking to explore that connection between passion and purpose. And I see sort of what you've been doing as
Starting point is 00:44:07 passion-driven. You've enjoyed writing. You've enjoyed that curiosity journey. And I think I would, you know, tell me if it's correct or not, but purpose, you know, I heard you speak about a visit you did to MIT in which you were speaking to a group of students there and you felt like the work that you've been doing helped inspire them to explore different areas. Is that potentially a purpose to help people, you know, go beyond their comfort zones and explore areas through your writing? It's certainly an extremely positive impact that I feel immensely gratified about, right? So that's for sure. Like when someone tells me I, you know, I moved closer to my parents because of an article I read from you, you know, that's like, man, that is a huge impact. And like, I love to hear that, right?
Starting point is 00:45:08 It's incredible. And so this, yeah, an MIT student saying, I went into, you know, this industry or that industry because of your article. Like, man, if they really stick with that, that's 50 years of human effort just got, went from the arrow, got turned to a different direction potentially um by something i did like you know so i i i think it's i guess part of my discomfort with saying it's my purpose is it feels like it's it's tying that to your identity in a way that i don't like because what if in 10 years i'm you know before wait but why i was writing musicals
Starting point is 00:45:44 what if i'm going back and i'm writing musicals again, right? Now am I abandoning my purpose, right? I think you can have multiple purposes over time, right? My purpose early on was space. And then I got focused on exponential technologies. And now in this decade, I'm focused on adding 30 healthy years on people's lives, right? So I don't think just like, I mean, you could have multiple passions in life, right? Uh, I think, I think purpose, uh, is a,
Starting point is 00:46:12 a focusing force, uh, to maximize the impact that you have. Uh, but I do think it's, um, I do think, uh, a purpose driven life, uh, has a bigger impact and bigger sense of fulfillment. And I'm just curious if you agree. More than just passion. And I agree with you on the distinction. I guess purpose gives a real why behind what you're doing. Passion kind of is just a feeling. And purpose is kind of, it connects to the result of what you're doing.
Starting point is 00:46:48 Right. And, and you want to feel, um, you know, I, I, I think, I think, you know, probably where it's, it's, so we're saying something similar and maybe in different words, like where if I wrote something or made something, right? And I just do it and I leave it on my computer. It wouldn't, nothing would, it would not feel the same, right? It's the passion for me for it is specifically connected to the fact that what I make can delight someone else or fascinate someone else or make someone else laugh or whatever, you know, or make someone else really think in a way that, and I consider, you know, I consider my readers to be very similar to me. That's just how I think about them is, you know, we think similarly, or we're
Starting point is 00:47:45 somewhat similar, which is why I think they connect. And so I'm thinking, I've had these great experiences being fascinated by something or laughing at something or having something just changed the way I think and I want to, I want to, you know, capture those moments in my life, and then give them to others and stoke them and other people and have and kind of share, and stoke them in other people and kind of share those things. And so to me, it is specifically the connection on the other side and the impact it has on other people that makes it gratifying, that makes it fulfilling, right? Let me try a different distinction on you and see if this holds true for you.
Starting point is 00:48:26 different distinction on you and see if this holds true for you. Some of the things I've taken on and have been, like I like to joke, overnight successes after 11 years of hard work. And if they were just a passion, I think I would have let go of them a lot quicker. I think because it was a purpose, right? So opening up the space frontier during my first 20 years of my entrepreneurial career was space was a passion, you know, Star Trek and curiosity and all of that. But like opening up space, a purpose. And so when it became really hard and failure after failure after failure occurred. Um, because it was a purpose and not a passion. There was this, when the smoke or the fog cleared, there was this bright guiding star still there for me. Uh,
Starting point is 00:49:16 and I almost, I would say purpose is that it's, it's longterm, uh, uh, guiding star, longterm uh you know energy versus passion can be could be fleeting um does that feel maybe it's like um yeah i i feel like what the the vision that just popped into my head as you were saying that is like passion is an engine like behind you that's pushing you um and purpose is like when you said a guiding star i'm picturing something out there that's pulling you and that that's like a that you're you're you have this like desire to go towards and that the the passion can get you into it and can fuel a lot of the energy but that that that when especially when things are failing or hard, that's going to go away.
Starting point is 00:50:06 You're not going to feel very passionate about it, and that engine's going to turn off. It's that second force, that thing pulling you, the constant pull of that thing can be a constant where maybe the passion engine is not. Yeah, I think absolutely. There's a quote, I don't have it offhand, where it's like, you know, passion is your ship.
Starting point is 00:50:31 Your purpose is the rudder, so to speak. Like it's, and that's steering you. Do you have a long-term purpose? I mean, do you have something that is, you know, let's take it into the realm of a moonshot. Is there a moonshot there for you? Something that in the back of your mind, you're thinking about like, wow, if I could do that over the next decade or two, that would be amazing. We're going into such an uncertain time. You know, we already live in such an uncertain time. For humanity, you're saying?
Starting point is 00:51:07 Yeah, with where humanity is going and what's going to happen with all this exploding technology and also all of this political division, right? And all of these new environmental changes that spring upon us like social media and then we're caught off guard and we're all acting badly
Starting point is 00:51:22 and we haven't adjusted to it. And there's going to be more and more, you know, we're going to be having to decide, you know, is it okay if we're choosing, um, you know, looking at embryos and choosing the highest IQ embryo of the group? Is it okay for tweaking embryos? Like, is it okay? Um, what are we doing when brain machine interfaces come around? What should the rules be? And I guess when I think about that, um, be. And I guess when I think about that, I think that, I guess maybe, you know, maybe I could say a purpose I feel at this moment, because I have built up a platform of a lot of very smart people who trust me, or at least will listen and consider what I say. um, and so if I can kind of keep my head straight and continue to be curious and, and really think deeply about these things and have, you know, a lot of what
Starting point is 00:52:13 I say comes out of great conversations. So keep having conversations with some of the smartest people I know, and then try to add that as a voice into the mix in a way that, you know, adding a voice over an extended period of time on a pretty big platform, that can change things. Like, you know, that can actually affect, and some of the people listening are, you know, like you've mentioned, some of these very powerful people are, you know, occasionally will listen to something I say. And so I do feel like that is a responsibility to try to, to, to, to, I would love to say in 20 years that I think I have done a little part in helping kind of get, I feel like the way I think about it is we're there. Our technology is exploding, you know, exponential tech. I learned a lot of this from you. I mean, you're one of the greatest thinkers
Starting point is 00:53:08 in this kind of thing about how, you know, the future is just going to be crazy, right? The more you talk to people who really know, I was talking to a friend the other day who really knows, you know, he's invested, he funds a lot of future tech and he's, he just looked at me and he said, the future is going to be weird. No, it's like soon. Soon, right. And so the way I look at it is a species with this much power, which comes from tech, can build themselves a utopia, something that would seem like a utopia to us, the same way that our world would seem like a utopia to Thomas Jefferson if he were here. He'd be blown away by the comforts and the magic that we live inside of,
Starting point is 00:53:47 you know, and the health, you know, advances. And, you know, half of the kids died before five when he was. I mean, imagine how amazing this would see. So we have a utopia in our future, potentially. We also have all this power to potentially screw it up for ourselves and really, really, really have a bad time in the future. so i'd see it as i don't see this much in between i don't think we'd go to 2060 in the time machine and get out and say it's okay here it's either
Starting point is 00:54:13 going to be absolutely mind-blowingly awesome or like perhaps like really awful and you'd say oh my god we didn't know how good we had it in 2022. That's how I see it. So given that, if you ask me in 10, 20 years, and I can say, I think I've done what I can to try to just nudge that in the right direction and that maybe that's actually had an impact, that's about as good a thing as I can put myself towards. So I think that's a great purpose in life, right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:54:43 I mean, it's- You actually said something once, I think it was on great purpose in life, right? Yeah. I mean, it's- You actually said something once, I think it was on Tim Ferriss' podcast, that I never forgot. I thought it was a great quote. I've actually quoted you a bunch of times. You said something like, if you want to figure out what you should do in the world,
Starting point is 00:54:57 don't ask yourself the common question is, what would you do if someone gave you a billion dollars? But ask yourself, what would you do if someone allowed you to deploy a billion dollars? And know and and i would add to that you know and you can't tell anyone no one can know because then you take out all the virtue signaling and all the social approval enough no one will ever know that you had this opportunity the billion will end up there but no one will know you had anything to do with it um what would you so just take it isolates everything of like where do i want a billion dollars to go affect something? Where do I want to push something in the world? And I just thought that was really great. And, and,
Starting point is 00:55:28 and, uh, so it's just kind of a side topic, but it just seems relevant to bring up here because of talking to you. And it was just such a good way to like figure out what, what do you really deep down actually wish was, was changing? You know, that's a good way to maybe point yourself. Uh, agreed. And, and, you know, I talk about my purpose as inspiring and guiding entrepreneurs to create a hopeful, compelling and abundant future for humanity. And I, I say that 10 times a day, right? And I think the ability for you to guide and inspire people through your
Starting point is 00:55:59 writing is an extraordinary, extraordinary platform for doing that. And I think you're absolutely right. Uh, we have two divergent futures ahead. Um, and, uh, uh, you know, I'm out there talking about an abundant future as much as possible. Uh, cause I think an abundant future is a more peaceful, uh peaceful future for humanity as well. But it's by no means guaranteed. So, you know, for me, helping people find their purpose is critically important. And within that, a moonshot.
Starting point is 00:56:40 One of the things that you've talked about before that I don't think everybody really understands is how much of our mindset and thinking is wired from the early days in the savannah, you know, hundreds of thousands of years ago. And I'm talking about the topic of cognitive biases. What are your favorite cognitive biases? Define a cognitive bias for folks first. What are your favorite cognitive biases? Define a cognitive bias for folks first. So a cognitive bias is a, I would say it's a glitch. It's a thinking glitch that is wired into humans or taught to humans. And if you ask, why does your hand look the way it does? Why does your foot and your bones the way they are? Because they were built for the specific gravity on Earth, for the specific materials, for the things you're going to, you know,
Starting point is 00:57:28 it was, you know, evolution shaped these things to be perfect tools or very close to perfect tools for something very specific, right? The brain is another one of these tools, right? Why would the brain be some magical different thing? So then that's this crazy thought, which is the thing we're all using to think, which is who we all really are in there. That thing was shaped by evolution and optimized optimized for a very different kind of life to to to to drive uh to drive the ship in a very different universe than the one we actually live in right and so we for example we have confirmation bias right which is you know when we uh i agree with you. Already believes. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:58:26 Sorry. When we, well, this is, this is the problem is, you know, it doesn't matter how smart you are and how aware you are of cognitive biases. I mean, of course it helps to be, to be self-aware and, and humility is the most important thing here because humility is when you say, I have a flawed tool in here. Don't forget that. Flawed tool. So it can be a great tool, but it's always going to be flawed. And it's going to, it's going to trick me into things
Starting point is 00:58:49 because it doesn't understand that I am in this world and I want it to understand the truth. It thinks I want to other things. So humility goes a long way, but even if you're really humble and you understand these biases, you will do them yourself. And I, it's amazing how often I will be, I'll be writing about cognitive biases. I'll be writing this and I find myself doing it. I find myself, Oh, I'm doing, I'm, I'm totally like avoiding read, you know, in my research, I'm avoiding the articles that seem like they disagree with me. Wow. Why am I, you know, because, Oh man, if I read the articles disagree with me, it feels so good right now to feel like I'm so right. If I, if I read the articles disagree with me it feels so good right now to feel like I'm so right if I if I read those two two too closely I'm gonna have to change things and so there's this motivation not necessarily out of like sometimes it's because I want to I want to I'm right and I
Starting point is 00:59:34 better be no I I often I'm fine set being wrong it's more that I don't want to it's laziness I don't want to have to go and like redo this whole section because I read it. So I'm just like, ah, let me just, and I'm totally doing confirmation bias. I'm, I'm acting in a way I'm driving my research in a way that will, that is intended to not have me find the truth, but intended to have me confirm that this is how I do, you know, so there's a lot of it. And I can talk through a few of those here. Confirmation biases just makes your life a lot easier and you feel a lot better about it what's another what's another cognitive bias you're you're dealing with now i'm going to ask you what's your advice for avoiding those cognitive biases i mean ad hominem fallacy is a big one like the the define, um, um, ad hominem fallacy is when, well, in that hominem argument
Starting point is 01:00:27 is, is a bullshit argument where you basically, someone who you don't like says an argument that you don't like. And instead of saying, here's why the argument is wrong. You say, you know, this person is, of course they would say that because they're, uh, you know, this politics or they're, or, or, or, you know this politics or they're or or you know yeah they don't even have a degree in this and blah blah you know whatever it is they will attack the person and discredit the argument based on who said it instead of just approaching the argument right which is you know if you if you haven't if you have a ironclad uh uh counter to a certain argument you wouldn't need to do that. You would just say, here's,
Starting point is 01:01:05 it's clearly wrong. But so when you go there, to me, it seems like it's someone who is taking a shortcut to not have to actually address an argument they don't like. And they're disqualifying it from the beginning based on the mouth it came out of. So the ad hominem, but that's the argument, right? The ad hominem like fallacy to me that the cognitive bias is that we just do this in our thinking that we, the way a certain person is talking or who they are, you know, in the world, we will just have this just either trust or distrust to it. You know, look, obviously, if someone has proven themselves to be trustworthy, it's rational to actually lower your skepticism when they're talking and trust them more. And likewise, when someone's proven to be a snake oil salesman, I mean,
Starting point is 01:01:49 it does make sense. So it's not that you can never judge based on who the person is, but I think, I find that we take that shortcut a little too much. You know, on Twitter, you're looking down, you're scrolling down and you're just going to assume they're right, they're wrong, they're right, they're wrong because of who they are before you, before anything else. Let's do a rapid fire round of cognitive biases and we'll go back and forth. How's that? Okay. So a recent, a recency bias, right? Where you're going to give more value to more recent information than older information. What do you got? What's, what's the definition of the availability heuristic? It's, you know the availability heuristic it's you know availability
Starting point is 01:02:25 bias which is when you when you when you when you see something when something is um accessible yeah easily findable right you're gonna grab for you're gonna grab for that information and away it have more than stuff that's harder to find and research right so like stuff that's being bloviated on Twitter constantly, you're going to start to just assume it must be. There's, um, uh,
Starting point is 01:02:50 there's a negativity bias, of course, right. Which, which, uh, is from our early days of evolution, stuff that might kill you or is dangerous is more viable because,
Starting point is 01:03:00 uh, you want to stay away from it. So, uh, hence the crisis news network, CNN, all the negative news there. What else? I would say the bandwagon effect,
Starting point is 01:03:17 which is when everyone is saying it, you think you assume it must be true. So this is how you get group madness, where you have, it becomes fashionable. It becomes fashionable to believe a certain thing. And so therefore, a lot of people are doing it, you know, saying it because it makes them look like a good person or looks cool or whatever. And then everyone starts doing it. So other people start to assume, well, everyone thinks this around me. So it must be true. Yeah. There's a, I think a familiarity bias that you tend to believe something that someone who looks like you said more than someone who doesn't.
Starting point is 01:03:51 Which is a subset of the ad hominem. Yes. Yes, for sure. Let's see. I mean, anybody who wants to go deep on this, just Google. There's a whole Wikipedia page on these cognitive biases. It's interesting, right? There's these heuristics, these shortcuts that we are biased on. They're a huge number. I would say that a lot of what I think of as cognitive biases, um i i i think there's a whole realm of what i would what i what i think of as fallacies um nested under kind of confirmation bias so like correlation causation right it's statistics 101 that correlation does not imply causation right you see um oh you know gun deaths are up during COVID. It must be COVID. Gun deaths are up after defund the police. It must be that, right?
Starting point is 01:04:50 We just, you see it in politics all the time, right? Like we see one trend and we see another and we just, but the reason this is confirmation bias is what you're gonna see is something happens and what people will do was they will attribute the cause to that thing in a way that always helps confirm their political views. And likewise, when there is a cause of something that conflicts with your political views, you will separate and say, you know, there's nothing to do with each other, you know? And so it's, it's like a, you know, um, I, I see, I see a lot of that trends and anecdotes when something is, um, uh, a news story helps your political story. You'll frame it as a trend. See, here we go again with this whole thing. This is,
Starting point is 01:05:40 this is what they do. This is what they do. This, this is why we need, you know, and when you see a news story that conflicts with your thing, you'll say it's a one-off thing. It's a freak thing. You know, you're sensational. You're cherry picking. You're sensationalizing. So, yeah. It's, you know, and the challenge is we don't actually, we're not conscious of this as it's happening in the moment. And everybody has these biases. You know, one of my favorite uses for AI, Tim, in the future is going to be, I want to turn on my AI's cognitive bias alert and, and have it listen to my conversations. It won't be, you'll hate it. You'll hate it because it's going to be constantly saying, and you're gonna be like, shut up. Okay. I just, you know, we'll all realize how full of, of cognitive biases we are at all times. And
Starting point is 01:06:30 I think, I think we'll say if I'm doing something more than like 30% bad, then do it. And the little ones let me do it. Cause otherwise I won't be able to function in the world because, because we are, cause again, our brain, think about it, the brain wasn't built to be a truth finding machine. Not really. Sometimes, right? Sometimes like it was helpful to be able to know the truth of where, you know, where that bears or where that Buffalo is going to be in five seconds when you're, you know, so
Starting point is 01:06:58 it wants to know the truth in some ways. But in other ways, what it really wants is for you to believe what the people around you believe about the people around you believe about the world and about ethics and about right and wrong it wants you to conform and with it with the because that's how you stayed alive right don't don't be an individual too hard in this tribe of people because you will be killed or cut out or whatever fascinating just you know the fascinating. Just the notion that wanting to be accepted in the tribe is such a powerful force. Also, you know what else is powerful? Like zealous belief. So there's two tribes and one of them says, well, we're not so sure. The humble tribe, right? So there's the humility tribe and they're
Starting point is 01:07:42 not sure what they think. And they have some strong views, but they call them theories and they know they can always be disproven and they like to play devil's advocate. And so there's the humility tribe and they're they're not sure what they think and they they have some strong views but they call them theories and they they they know they can always be disproven and they they like to play devil's advocate and then there's the other tribe and they zealously believe what they believe and they believe that their god is the good god and they believe that they are the righteous people and they are the this is their land and no one else you know and that when they and and that they they're they're all destined for heaven or whatever it is like and they're not going to question well do we have evidence for that they don't need evidence because they're the zealous people right which tribe is gonna would you bet on to pass on their genes more right and it's not that i would much rather hang out with the humble tribe but
Starting point is 01:08:16 back on the savannah when all that matters if you're in a we're in a rough you know state of nature i am surviving so we So we have the instinct today because we are the descendants. Unfortunately, the humble tribe didn't pass on their genes. Those awesome people, they're not here. We're all the zealous tribe people. And so we have the instinct to, you know, so yeah.
Starting point is 01:08:37 Ah, amazing. I love this conversation. Could keep it going. Tim, XPRIZE. keep it going. Tim, XPRIZE. So our job is get the world's smartest people to bring their cognitive surplus, their treasures, their talent to solving the world's biggest problems. We've launched about $300 million in XPRIZE. So here's my chance to ask you, if you had a chance to direct where we did our XPRIZES, what would you want us to do? I know this is out of the blue, but it's my question for you. What are some problems or challenges or capabilities you want solved or you wish
Starting point is 01:09:17 people would be going after? Where should we launch our next XPRIZE? I have a very clear answer, I think, which is I wish that you would get people working on cryonics capabilities. And I'll tell you why. Please. So cryonics, for people who don't know, is the concept not of freezing yourself after you die, because that wouldn't work because you're a liquid and your cells would expand and you would they would, you don't freeze, it's vitrifying. It's a very specific technology. And it sounds right you're gonna a frozen dead person you're gonna bring them back it's not what all it is is right before you actually you know when when when uh when you're clinically dead which means that we don't have the um or you're legally dead, we don't have the medical technology to save you today, right?
Starting point is 01:10:08 50 years ago, if someone keels over on the curb and their heart stops beating and they're not breathing, they're dead because they don't have the technology to save you in 1950, right? So they were as dead as you could be back then. But today, that person's not dead. There's defibrillators. There's going to, they're going to do all kinds of, um, you know, drone delivered, drone delivered defibrillators that will come to you. Exactly. Right. Exactly. Like they, they, they, we can save you today. So, so, so guess what?
Starting point is 01:10:38 That dead person genuinely dead back then is not dead today. Whoa. What does that mean? The death is a process. And that what's happening is, uh is when you get to a certain level, we call you dead when we can't save you today. And then what happens is we give up on you. Then you actually decay and decay until eventually the arrangement of atoms in your brain is now lost forever. Now you're officially gone, right? No one can save you. But there's a big window between when you are unable to be saved today and when, and when you're actually no longer preserved. And when, and so, so if there were a hospital across the street that we could send you to that had a machine that could save you, but we didn't have it here. Of course, everyone would say, get them over to this across the
Starting point is 01:11:19 to the hospital. Cryonics is an attempt to get you to a hospital in the future that can save you and what it is is it pauses your biology it doesn't freeze you it just gets you to a temp you it they use antifreeze so you don't actually nothing freezes but they slow down your they use cold temperatures to slow down all the atoms in your body from to the point where they can't move anymore so everything is just stopped paused right, right where it was. Nothing is going to change now. You're not going to decay. They put a human on pause and they say, we're going to store them here.
Starting point is 01:11:52 Medical technology will get better and better. And one day when there will be that hospital in some future time, they can absolutely, hospitals in the future, it'll be child's play. They'll say, yeah, of course we can save them. There's no problem for us. in the future, it'll be child's play. They'll say, yeah, of course we can save them. There's no problem for us. Now we will probably also have the technology to safely un-vitrify the person and save them. We've all seen Star Trek, so absolutely, it's coming. So here's how I think about it. There's all kinds of things I would love if you worked on that
Starting point is 01:12:17 involve life extension, Alzheimer's and heart disease and all this, but people are working on those and it's happening. Over time, We're getting better and better at these things. Um, and, um, and maybe even down the road, uploading our consciousness and freeing ourselves from the dying mammal that we're stuck in right now. So that's great. That's all going to happen in the future. But for all the people alive today, we're probably going to miss out. We're probably a little bit early, maybe 20, 50 years. I don't know. Maybe not, but I don't feel confident. I'm working on it as hard as I can. I know you are. But the point is, if we just get this one technology to be really, really
Starting point is 01:12:55 good cryonics, now none of us have to worry so much. We say, well, I hope it's here in my lifetime, but if it's not, I will pause myself and then the future will, you know, I'll wait till it is. That's awesome. So this basically is a bridge to that future for everyone alive today who won't be here to take that bridge. I like that. I actually like that idea for Next Prize. And I've had some conversations in the past around the first increment is can you store organs for future transplantation, right? Because a number of organs today have a lifetime. And if you don't transplant them within a certain period of time, they're thrown away.
Starting point is 01:13:34 But imagine if you could store organs. So that might be an incremental step towards full body. Because the brain is just another organ. And if we can do that, then we can store the brain and now we're good. You know, it's tossing your brain to the future and saying, you know, better than rotting in a grave for me, send it to the future, see what they can do with it. See if they can bring me back. Um, so yes, that's where I would, that's where I would have you do it. Are you an Alcor client? Yes, you are. Okay. Fantastic. Yes. I am not yet. I've like
Starting point is 01:14:04 held off at Alcor. It's one of these companies that you sign a contract with, you pay a fee and they'll come and grab you. And so let me ask you the other question that people may or may not know you should ask, which is, are you whole body or just the head? Just the head. And the reason is the head of Alcor, Max moore who's an awesome guy um i just talked to him and i said you know he said look we're right now and this is just because it's early it's
Starting point is 01:14:30 primitive we are so focused on preserving your brain that that's what we're worried about and like it's almost i think honestly i should switch it anyway just because you never know right and maybe the body's helpful but i i suspect in 10 or 20 years, it'll be whole body for everyone. But I think right now, the tech is just not there where they can preserve everything. They're so focused on just getting this person's brain with their memories and their personality and who they really are safely into the future. All right, Tim, I'm going to ping you on this one as we get forward, because I do think that's a great XPRIZE, just to get more people thinking on it and focusing on it. Yeah, working on the technology.
Starting point is 01:15:11 Yeah, why not? Just inspiring people and guiding them in that direction. Tim, thank you for joining me on Mindsets and Moonshots and a super fun conversation, and grateful for the work that you do. Thank you for inspiring people. Likewise, and thanks for having me on. You're welcome, pal.

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