Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - How the New Administration Will Impact Crypto, AI & Tech Globally w/ Ben Horowitz & Salim Ismail | EP #145

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

In this episode, Ben, Peter, and Salim discuss recent tech, AI, robotics, and crypto news and what the new administration means for tech enthusiasts.   Recorded on Jan 23rd, 2024 Views are my own thoughts; not Financial, Medical, or Legal Advice. Ben Horowitz is a prominent businessman, investor, author, and technology entrepreneur who has played a pivotal role in shaping Silicon Valley. In 1999, he co-founded Loudcloud, which evolved into Opsware, an enterprise software company acquired by Hewlett-Packard for $1.6 billion in 2007. In 2009, Horowitz co-founded Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), a leading venture capital firm that has invested in groundbreaking companies like Airbnb and Coinbase. He is the author of two bestselling books, The Hard Thing About Hard Things and What You Do Is Who You Are, offering practical insights into building businesses and shaping culture. Known for his expertise in technology entrepreneurship, venture capital, and thought leadership, Horowitz also established the a16z Cultural Leadership Fund to connect cultural leaders with the tech industry and promote diversity.  Salim Ismail is a serial entrepreneur and technology strategist well known for his expertise in Exponential organizations. He is the Founding Executive Director of Singularity University and the founder and chairman of ExO Works and OpenExO.  Learn more about a16z: https://a16z.com/  Join Salim's ExO Community: https://openexo.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/salimismail  ____________ I only endorse products and services I personally use. To see what they are,  please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:  Get started with Fountain Life and become the CEO of your health: https://fountainlife.com/peter/ AI-powered precision diagnosis you NEED for a healthy gut: https://www.viome.com/peter  Get 15% off OneSkin with the code PETER at  https://www.oneskin.co/ #oneskinpod _____________ I send weekly emails with the latest insights and trends on today’s and tomorrow’s exponential technologies. Stay ahead of the curve, and sign up now:  Tech Blog _____________ Connect With Peter: Twitter Instagram Youtube Moonshots

The Biden administration was by far the most anti-tech presidency in my lifetime. A complete war with the industry. Are we in for an extraordinary acceleration and reimagination of crypto and Bitcoin and all? One of the things that you only know if you're deep in the crypto industry is there was nobody developing software in the space. It just really, really slowed down over the last four years. And now it's back. We are in a race with China on AI, and we're trying to control it by chips.

I am curious your thoughts about all this. I do think we're in a race. The danger, of course, is... Hey, everybody. Peter Diamandis here. Welcome to Moonshots, another special episode of WTF Just Happened in Tech with my bestie Salim Ismail. And on this episode, I'm joined with an incredible tech investor, perhaps one of the most dominant

in the world, and that's Ben Horowitz of A16Z. In 1999, Ben co-founded LoudCloud, which evolved and became an enterprise software company sold for $1.6 billion to Hewlett Packard. Then in 2009, Horowitz joined with Mark Andreessen to co-found Andreessen Horowitz, also known as A16Z, a venture capital fund with, get this, over $45 billion assets under management. He's the author of two bestselling books with incredible names, incredible content, The Hard Things About Hard Things,

and What You Do Is Who You Are. All right, let's jump into this episode. This is just after the inauguration, after some recent conversations about breakthroughs in AI, in robotics, in crypto. It really feels like we're in the future and it's the year 2025. All right, what just happened in tech this week? We're going to find out. Let's jump in.

Ben, good to see you this morning. Where are you today? Yeah, I'm in Las Vegas. Great to see you, Peter. Great to see you, Salim. That's right, Salim, as always. And, you know, a lot happening in tech this week. Super pumped to have Ben join us in this conversation Salim, as always. And a lot happening in tech this week. Super pumped to have Ben join us in this conversation because I think you've got a front row seat to some most extraordinary things happening. And I think one of the things happened this week is we've got a new president.

Yeah. I have to imagine this is probably, do you think this is the most tech forward administration we have ever had? Well, it's certainly the most dramatic change in tech policy that we've ever seen, just because the Biden administration was by far the most anti-tech presidency in my lifetime. And then, you know, Trump, at least in his first four days, has been full out, like, aggressive pro tech. So it's just, it's so night and day. The contrast is absolutely shocking.

It's like a whipsaw. Yeah. Yeah. Like it's almost unbelievable. It's through the licking glass kind of thing. Well if there's ever a time that we're going to accelerate humanity to Mars, get digital super intelligence up and running, extend the healthy human lifespan, I think this... Yeah, like when Trump said we're going to Mars, I was like, okay.

Let's go. As always, we'll talk about AI, robotics, crypto, but I think this was interesting. Looking at the front row seat of what was going on at the administration inauguration here I think was pretty extraordinary. Did you or Mark get an invite to go or did you decide to sort of scale? Yeah, well, you know, we have been spending a lot of time with the administration and that Mar-a-Lago, but you know, inauguration isn't, we're not really party people. So we didn't go, we had many people from the firm went to the inauguration and they said

it was great fun. So You know what? Fascinating was Davos was going on the same time. Yeah Quite the contrast. Yeah. Well, these guys would normally be at Davos. Yeah I think they aligned aligned properly Most of them were very anti Trump in 2016 in 2016, 2020, so it's quite the change. It is. I mean, when you're about to jump on a fast moving elevator or rocket ship, you got to

make a choice. Celine, what are your thoughts about this lineup here? I feel like this is like a Game of Thrones episode where the Lord of Hightower is told you better bend the knee or the sword is coming for you and so I think there's it's 50-50 excitement and defensiveness because you've got to play ball but look at the game that we're now playing is amazing. Yeah I agree with that I like I think the excitement is like real in that everybody in tech has been oppressed, literally. I know that sounds ridiculous because they're like, oh, how can billionaires be oppressed and all that kind of thing?

But they really, the Biden administration was at complete war with the industry. Every single thing you tried to do in technology. I mean, they tried to completely outlaw FinTech, or not even outlaw, destroy the FinTech and crypto industries. That plus the incredible blanket on M&A. It's ridiculous. No major M&A can happen in that kind of environment. And that just solves such a huge backlog of tech companies wanting to get an exit. Yeah,

that was, we had a company within, it was called Within, which was a content company for VR that made an exercise game called Supernatural. And the FTC blocked the acquisition by Meta on antitrust grounds. And eventually, it got through. They lost the case because it was an absurd case. But it's just harassment. There was no antitrust. Meta doesn't have a monopoly on VR.

VR is not even like a market yet. What are you talking about? We also saw the meltdown of the entire biotech industry over the last four years. Everybody, Peter here. If you're enjoying this episode, please help me get the message of abundance out to the world. We're truly living during the most extraordinary time ever in human history. And I want to get this mindset out to everyone. Please subscribe and follow wherever to get this mindset out to everyone. Please subscribe and follow wherever you get your podcasts and turn on notifications so we can let you know when the next

episode is being dropped. All right, back to our episode. I think we're going to see a resurgence in all of these companies. I mean, I was on the board of two public biotech companies. I just on the board of two public biotech companies. I just saw this massive demonetization going on as the FDA and regulatory restrictions were like, no, you can't do that. No, you can't merge there. It just, it took the wind out of all the sales that, and people ended up leaving the United States

to go overseas to get treatments because they can't do it in the United States. So super excited about Bobby Kennedy and seeing what he's going to do. Yeah, well, I mean, the other side of that is we actually needed a regulatory upgrade, right? Because HIPAA was designed long before we could use data to cure disease and create amazing diagnostics and all these things. And there was just no chance of getting to that. I had a great conversation with Dave Ricks from Eli Lilly,

who's, by the way, a fantastic CEO. He's like one of us. I mean, he's a real product guy, talented guy. And one of the reasons why drugs are so expensive to develop is they can't match the quality of the product. And I think that's a real product guy, talented guy. And one of the reasons why drugs are so expensive to develop is they can't match the cure for the disease with the people who have the disease for the clinical trial.

There's no way to do that. It's like hunting for a needle in a haystack to find these patients whose lives could be saved because the current regulatory regime has prevented that kind of thing. So we're really hopeful that we can make great progress with RFK Jr. and the new team. Absolutely. Absolutely sure we can. On this image of the tech CEOs, the inauguration, I think I left Sam Altman off

there so he wouldn't fight with the image on this. That's a good fight, isn't it? Oh my God. It's great nighttime TV to see what's going on here. But it was, you know, listen, having all of these individuals in the front row, Bezos and Musk had just launched their rockets the week or days before. It's nice to have two of the wealthiest people on the planet battling it out to get us get him married to space.

And then the rest of them here, I mean, the question is, is this the tech giant takeover of America? And ultimately, I don't know about you, but I sort of think this is the way America thrives. It has to- Yeah, it's the best of America. I mean, you know, like this is the thing that's so frustrating if you're in tech, right? Like we have this incredible industry where we've attracted literally the greatest people in the world. I mean like look at that set, you know, the only one who's kind of, I mean Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg are kind of natively

American. Jeff, you know, his dad was a Cuban immigrant, you know, everybody else is like an immigrant. And they're all here and they're all building this country and our economy and our future. And they've just been absolutely devastating culturally, I think. And then you pile on that, trying to outlaw all these efforts. So I think, and by the way, all these guys donated massive amounts of money. And I think that's a great thing. And I think that's a great thing.

And I think that's a great thing. And I think that's a great thing. And I think that's a great thing. And I think that's a great thing. And I think that's a great thing. And I think that's a great thing. And I think that's a great thing. And I think that'slaw these efforts. So I think, and by the way, all these guys donated massive amounts of money to Biden, Obama, like on the Democrat side, and nobody complained that they were controlling the

government then. And, you know, you have to wonder why. And by the way, much more than Biden or Obama, Trump doesn't listen to anybody. I mean, like, that was going to tell him what to do. What are you talking about? Yeah. The one that really stuck in my craw was the Delaware court on Elon's $56 billion or whatever.

Yeah, that was just unbelievable. I mean, you look at somebody that's taken unbelievable risks, made the outcome, and then you want to harm that. That's just a bad message. And the board approved it. And then the shareholders approved it. And like so like we own the company we all think it's a great idea. He only gets paid if we get paid like a crazy amount of money and you're gonna just after the fact say

like okay corporate governance like all the rules around that are fake. And like we don't there's no rules. Like I can just change the law whenever I want. As an activist judge, it's just unbelievable and insane. You know, and the fact of the matter is these guys employ in some total tens of millions, you know, bordering on 100 million Americans in some way, shape or form. Yeah. Yep. Yep. Let's talk about this.

This was an announcement this week that was was interesting, interesting in a number of different ways. Right. This is the announcement of Stargate, a quote, five hundred billion dollar commitment on private infrastructure. What are your thoughts about this, gentlemen? OK, so there's, you know, it's a little unclear what it is. Yes, I agree. That aside, look, I think the idea

that this administration wants to attract investment in America and is using kind of all of its mojo to do that is great. And you know, so that part is terrific. You know, Masa is Masa. We all know him. And you know, he's quite the character. He's certainly brilliant and amazingly successful. But he does things in a very specific way,

which I don't want to overly comment on. But look, building AI infrastructure, just watching with the Biden administration, there were so many kind of efforts to invest all around the world, not in America, in data centers and chips and whatnot. And it's nice that at least there is a kind of high-profile effort to do that here. I'd like to see the same effort in the energy sector of opening up more energy sources,

because we need energy in generation. So I think that's 100% going to happen. We're very close with Doug Burgum, the new head of the Department of the Interior. And he's really, really good on this topic. And then Trump, of course, has said what he said and is extremely pro-energy. And they're going to definitely, I think, open up nuclear, which is the key for so many

things and we're seeing great innovation in that area. And when you see nuclear ban, you're talking about like generation four small modular nuclear reactors and so forth. Yeah, Fission, like that you can put next to a data center, that kind of thing. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right. I mean, they're getting safe enough Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Right. They're getting safe enough that we, you know,

they should be peppered throughout the United States. Absolutely. Well, and then there's another part of this where crypto really helps. So we have this company, Daylight Energy, and basically what they're doing is they're creating a marketplace. So if you have, you know, solar panels

and a Tesla Powerwall, right, you're gonna have at many, more energy than you need. So wouldn't it be great to have a marketplace where anybody who needed energy could ask your Powerwall for your energy? But Powerwalls aren't people, so they don't have credit cards. So how do they do that? Well, crypto is a perfect answer for machines paying machines. And so that effort can now happen. That was also illegal. So how do they do that? Well, crypto is a perfect answer for machines paying machines.

And so that effort can now happen. That was also illegal in the Biden world. Or not. I shouldn't say illegal because there was no law. It was just like the government using its... The government wasn't moving. Yeah. Basically using its power to terrorize anybody in the field.

Well, it was the whole debanking thing, right? Which was absolutely scandalous. Absolutely scandalous what they did. Oh my God, kicked them out of the banking system. So we had more than two dozen companies kicked out of the banking systems. Elizabeth Warren's been running around Washington telling people that's fake.

It was naked aggression against crypto. And that's thankfully gone It was naked aggression against crypto. Naked aggression. Yeah. Unbelievable. Looking at this photo here in the Stargate project, $500 billion of capital deployment. It's interesting, right? So we see Elon tweeting, that's bullshit. You know, MasterSans only got, you know, at best, $10 billion.

Which wouldn't be the first time, by the way. Yeah, that's true. There's definitely a discrepancy between claims and actualities. But I have to wonder what the backroom conversation going on here with Elon and Trump on one side and Sam, and then Larry Ellison's on Elon's board and involved in this. So there's interesting bedfellows at work here. Yeah, I mean, I think that, you know, this is this just feels like a Masa idea. And, you know, this is Masa's genius.

But also, I would say the things that people criticize him for, which is, you know, he is the moonshot financier of you know, our time and he is like great at raising a crazy amount of money and and you know, to do that sometimes, you know, you have to ladder up to it, I guess. So, you know, it's a masa thing. The way I look at it, it's a masa thing, like, well, it worked, you know, maybe it'll work. Will he get the money? Maybe I'll get the money. But you can't say he won't get the money because it's masa.

I think what's interesting here, the go-to once we've got this level of AI capability, what Larry Ellison was saying and Sam Alton were saying on top of this is we're going to use this large level of AI capability to cure disease, cure cancer. I'd love to add, extend the healthy human lifespan by decades on this, but it is fascinating that people go to health as the first. I mean, you must, I'm heavily invested in longevity and health across most investments. I mean, it's the biggest disruptable marketplace. How about yourself, Ben? Yeah. So we, you know, we have a big kind of effort there with our bio-fund and

we just did a really exciting partnership with Eli Lilly around that. I think that, so, so I really believe like technologically we're in a new place. So the way we talk about it internally is, you know, physics we've been doing for, you know, thousands of years, but it only got really interesting when we had a language that could model it, which was calculus. And we now have a language that can model biology, which is AI. And so it feels like we're really at the beginning of kind of biological research. And, and that's super exciting. I would just

caution it a little in terms of the rate because people expect everything to work like it does in computers because you do have to do, you know, in vivo tests, you know, you've got tests in animals and humans and that AI doesn't quite get rid of that. Like, you know, we can have certainly much more targeted, much better engineered solutions. We're not just, you know, see if this molecule works, you know, drug discovery and all that kind of thing. But, you know, it'll still be slower than I think the progress that we are used to. Agree. Although we're able to model biological processes so much more thoroughly with digital twins and so on. I think we'll be able to, the time period needed for in vitro testing

will be much more limited than before. I think that's right. But it would really help to have access to the data, right? Like particularly in the US and some countries there. Norway's got amazing access to cancer data and so forth. And there are places that have it. But we do need more of that to get all the way home, I think. Yeah, and we'll talk about that with the recent announcement from Demis at DeepMind. But I found this fascinating.

So at the beginning of the administration, Trump revoked Biden's 2023 AI executive order, halting safety and transparency. Yeah, yes. Good. Interesting, right? This is taking the gloves off and accelerating the acceleration. How do you think about this? You know, like I think it's, first of all, as you know, AI technology is very, very nascent. I mean, like we're at, we're in the really early days, so we don't know yet. You know, what it's going to be, we are in, you know, like, by the way, a fairly important race with China from a military standpoint and so forth. And I like it's be very bad for them or in a way for us to get too far of the head of the other one, like that becomes a very kind of unstable situation. And so like the idea that the government's going to enter the field, and basically what the Biden AI order did, you know, from our point of view was basically get

all of startups and academia out of the field by imposing like big regulatory requirements. And, you know, to do that at this stage is just, it's wild. It's a wild idea. I think, you know, we've tried this kind of heavy regulatory approach, which is why, you know, we've got a climate change issue and no nuclear power and all that kind of thing. And, you know, that was a kind of a much more dangerous technology, I think, at the time. Obviously, like AI is powerful, and it could do dangerous things. But the whole idea that, you know, that the idea of like scaring people and then giving government control, you know, I think was just bad. There's just I can't argue that the Biden executive

order was good in any way. So I think the executive order is bullshit and ridiculous and absurd because I have said this before many times, I see no mechanism by which you can regulate AI even if you tried. Because the meaning you try to set those goals, you'd have to regulate every line of code written. It's completely ridiculous. So undoing it undoes something that was so ridiculous it couldn't have happened anyway.

So for me it's like the whole thing is a non-secret. It does make it easier for people to do what they want to do without freedom of stupid oversight. Right, right. The safety part could have happened, but the interference was certainly happening. And by the way, the other thing that's so crazy is, you know, you have people

like my friend Vinod Khosla running around saying oh, this is like the Manhattan Project, we've got a lock. Like, you walk into OpenAI, you walk into Google, like it's so easy to steal their code, like what are you talking about? Like they've got like Chinese nationals running like all around the company. Like you're not protecting the bits, like we couldn't... By the way, the Manhattan Project didn't even end up protecting like the nuclear

secrets, like Russia got them. So it's just come on. But I do I do think this is a, you know, firing over the bow of saying we're accelerating everything. We're not slowing stuff down. We're going to we're going to up level our energy, our investment commitments. We're going all in, all out on AI, because we need to. It's the single most strategic asset for our country. And look, I think it's the way we solve a lot of the most

dangerous problems that we have, too. So there's like, OK, we've got AI safety to stop AI from doing something bad, which won't work. But what about AI to stop all the other something bad which won't work but what about like AI to stop all the other bad things from happening? Pandemics, cancer, you know etc. It's a climate change, you name it. You know here's one of the articles I wanted to bring to the table here is is Hasabas sees AI design drug trials this year.

I think this is one of the fascinating things. I just remind people the way we discover drugs for all of human history is we'd march through the Amazon in galoshes, and we'd cut plants or grab dirt off Easter Island, and we'd mix it up, and we'd see if there was any biological activity. And the average drug cost $10-plus dollars and work 10% of the time. It's insane.

And so, this is precision drug development. And in the future, you started to say this, Ben, it's precision drug development for you. It's like for your genome. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah, no, it's such a remarkable change in lifespan, healthcare, and all these things in health span that like it's hard to even get your head around like how stone age we've

been and how advanced this is going to be where we can say, oh, we need a protein that does this. Oh, okay, like, let's have the AI make it for us. It's just such a it's such a different world. I mean, one of the things we have to say like drug discovery, like, why do we call it drug discovery? Oh, it's because like, if we were making bridges that way, we build 1000 bridges, which everyone didn't fall down, we just making bridges that way, we'd build a thousand bridges, which everyone didn't fall down. We just drive over that one.

My kid played this last year with toothpicks and glue to figure out which one was strongest. But this is drug design versus drug discovery. For me, this is reminiscent of, you know, we used to frame this at Singularity, was you'd say, OK, we have a really well-understood stack for computation with chips and logic gates and operating systems, software and applications. And we have, turns out, the same stack in biology with proteins and genes forming metabolic pathways leading to cells and organelles. And essentially with modeling biology now, we've essentially turned the human being into

a software engineering problem. And we can take all the skills and understanding we know of software design and apply it now. And that is really, really interesting. Yeah. And one of my investments, Ben, is Alex Evronkov's company in Silico. And they were early on with generative AI for creating this. And they've gone into drug trials.

And I think this is the future of all drug discovery. And it will be in silico. And you'll model it. When the first example I used, when Dragon first flew on a Falcon 9 to the space station, it worked perfectly. And it wasn't like random luck. I mean, they had a model that had this thing. They knew exactly every mode.

They knew exactly what was going to happen. It worked because the model worked and so yeah as Alphafold alpha proteo alpha fold 3 all these come online. I think I think demos wants to create a full Model AI model of the human cell so you can actually model this drug In that because we have you know, we have 40 trillion cells in our body, a billion chemical reactions per second per cell. There's a lot going on. Yeah.

No, yeah. Cells are so, that's such a great point that we've just not been able to model it at all. And that's, right now we're in engineering world. If we can model things then we can build things build that. I love your analogy of a thousand bridges whichever one you could drive over. That's a great one. Remember that one. That's great.

It's about 13 years ago, I had my two kids, my two boys. And I remember at that moment in time, I made a decision to double down on my health. Without question, I wanted to see their kids, their grandkids, and really, during this extraordinary time where the space frontier and AI and crypto is all exploding, it was like the most exciting time ever to be alive. And I made a decision to double down on my health.

And I've done that in three key areas. The first is going every year for a Fowlin upload. You know, Fowlin is one of the most advanced diagnostics and therapeutics companies. I go there, upload myself, digitize myself, about 200 gigabytes of data that the AI system is able to look at to catch disease at inception. You know, look for any cardiovascular, any cancer, any neurodegenerative disease, any metabolic disease. These things are all going on all the time and you can prevent them if you can find them at inception.

So super important. So Fountain is one of my keys. I make it available to the CEOs of all my companies, my family members, because health is in you wealth. But beyond that, we are a collection of 40 trillion human cells and about another 100 trillion bacterial cells, fungi, viri, and we don't understand how that impacts us. And so I use a company and a product called Viome. And Viome has a technology called Metatranscriptomics. It was actually developed in New Mexico, the same place where the nuclear bomb was developed, as a bio-defense weapon. And their technology is able to help you understand what's going on in your body to understand which bacteria are producing which proteins.

And as a consequence of that, what foods are your superfoods that are best for you to eat? Or what foods should you avoid? What's going on in your oral microbiome? So I use their testing to understand my foods, understand my medicines, understand my supplements, and Viome really helps me understand from a biological and data standpoint, what's best for me. And then finally, you know, feeling good, being intelligent, moving well is critical, but looking good. When you look yourself in the mirror, saying, you know, I feel great about life is so important, right?

And so a product I use every day, twice a day, is called OneSkin, developed by four incredible PhD women that found this 10-amino acid peptide that's able to zap senile cells in your skin and really help you stay youthful in your look and appearance. So for me, these are three technologies I love and I use all the time. I'll have my team linked to those in the show notes down below. Please check them out. Anyway, I hope you enjoyed that. Now back to the episode.

This brings me to one of the questions that was the most asked question on X. Let's talk about this because the majority of entrepreneurs out there who see this incredible moonshot success story, this person or gal does this incredible thing, and they don't realize the hundreds of failures on the way, I call them an overnight success after 11 years of hard work. Yeah. I mean, you've built some amazing companies and you've invested in extraordinary companies. How do you think about this? Yeah, so it's a very, you know, particularly when like the real, the very large ideas. So first of all, like it's really important that the person building it really have difference

to how hard it is to make the product work. And so like we have people come in and there's, you know, it's a 20 person company and eight of them are vice presidents, you know, because they're going to manage this big thing that they don't have. And that never works. By the way, that never works. It never works. That's funny.

Yeah, you need engineers. Yeah, so you need to have engineers and also be just committed to keeping the company the right size until you actually kind of can see daylight and see the thing work. And then, you know, the fundraising for moonshot ideas is like an order of magnitude more difficult than normal fundraising because one, way more things go wrong. So there's going to be a round that you have to do when everything is a wreck. And so if you look at the guys who have built the really, really, really, really big ones, Elon Musk and Sam Waltman, Palmer Leckie, these guys are unbelievable.

They can raise money when there's no reason to give them money and that's That just ends up being I think very very important to be able to do because you're gonna hit that point Is that you've got a great telling Ben? What is that? I think it's a it's a combination of you know who they are like the depth and the color of their vision You know their ability to tell a narrative, the kind of depth of that narrative so that when you go into the company you really see it all there. I mean this is the thing that... And the depth of their conviction, right? And the depth of their conviction. That nothing will stop them for this.

Yeah, yeah. And then nobody, right? Elon, who's the greatest moonshot entrepreneur of our era, nobody would question whether you could stop him from reaching his goal. I mean like he Never bet against Elon. Yeah. Yeah. Well that was by the way that was when I Speak to my friends who are very sad about the election. I just say, like, why did you guys pick on him? Like of all the people to harass for no reason. The most competent person in the world, you're going to pick on him. Like that's not going to end well for you.

Don't do that. Everybody in Silicon Valley knows don't do that that's just crazy everybody in Silicon Valley knows don't do that but if I if I drill into this if I drill into this a bit Ben somebody comes in with a vision right they have to be half crazy to even have the vision so now you're dealing with a 50% rational right it sounds crazy right and so now you have to you have limited data on which to gauge whether this person has the the aura the charisma, the chemistry, the diligence, the fortitude to get it through. So the amount of viable candidates is shrinking quickly.

How do you make that judgment call? That's the hard part, I think. Yeah. You know, I... Because you guys have done it repeatedly successfully, which is amazing. Yeah. They really have to be... And look, we get it wrong a lot too.

Kanye's that kind of prototype. He's a super fucking genius, but there is times where he won't do what's logical for the business just because he's overly creative. So those people show up in tech too. And that's hard to make work because it's sometimes a point they just drive everybody in the company insane. The other one is they're so charismatic that they end up being sloppy and I you guys have probably seen this where it's kind of like the kid

who's so charming that he doesn't have to study, just gives the teacher an apple and smiles at her and like, bang, he's got an A. Like, there are entrepreneurs like that that are so good at storytelling and so charismatic. And they can get the whole thing going. But the detailed work that they don't want to do, like every CEO has that something that you really don't want to deal with but you have to, they don't want to do, like every CEO has that something that you really don't want to deal with but you have to, they don't end up dealing with and then it falls apart

because these ideas are really complex and require like a great amount of precision at some point. Let me hit you on something. So my fund, Bold Capital, recently made an investment in figure AI. Do you know Brett Eichhocken figure, yes? One of the robot? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know, yeah, yeah.

And so the reason we made the investment, so here's Brett, no background in the robotics field, but he had built Archer Aviation, right, the EVTOL. And so there's one question about the entrepreneur coming in, do they have a track record of actually having done hard things? So that's one bucket to evaluate. The second bucket, which was really the most interesting evaluation criteria for me making the go to invest was the people he had pulled in over the first six months, the people who had voted with their feet. Yeah, yeah, yeah, now that's definitely a real sign, like can they put

together a team, that kind of team, and which is right, the people working for them, this is a question I ask myself by the way on these kinds of ones like would I work for this company? Like would I be excited about going to work for this company? Or would I go, wow, I could help that entrepreneur build it. Like if it's the latter, then I'm like, okay, we should not put money in. Because they have to kind of be able to attract the highest level of talent to build something that hard. So that's a really, really good measure. And then I would say there's another thing about the team that's important, which is

also true about how the entrepreneur picks their investor, which is because it's a moon chat, there's going to be really bad times or they're very likely to be very bad times. And so you want to have a team that, you know, isn't already like a lot of times it's a great team by resume, but they're already rich and successful. And when things go wrong, they literally call in rich. They're like, oh, this is too hard. I'm not going to help you get out of this hole. Call in rich, that's hilarious.

Yeah. And so I do think it's important that the team be the right kind of mission, super hungry. And often, they need this to work. They not want it to work, they need this to work. You know, they're not want it to work but need it to work. Yeah. Well, this is this is Elon's circuit 2008 when the third Falcon one had blown up and he's borrowing money and everything's on the line.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you need you need your best people to be like, I will go through the trauma of, maybe I don't even have a job, and everybody thinks we're idiots and all that kind of thing. That's a tough, it's a very tough point to be in a company because when you're at a company like SpaceX or you're at one of these things that's very visible,

when it gets into trouble, the press just goes crazy on you Everybody's you know, your friends your family are like should you really be working there? I mean like you absolutely get those questions and You know, if you're not Yeah, if you're not totally committed You're gonna go and then then then the whole thing is a train wreck with this This is why we we have this massive transformative purpose idea that if you're not all bought into the overall vision then you will call in rich or call in sick or devote or find another job but if you've got a big enough vision that everybody is aligned to

then that provides the cohesive sticking power. Yeah it's got to be cohesive even when it looks like the vision is wrong. That's the key because when it looks like the vision is right, everybody's in. Ben, another criteria is if the founding team are best friends, because you're far unlikely to ditch the company when it gets difficult, if your best buddies are there with you. Right, if they haven't just met. Yeah, a lot of times the founding team is newly acquainted. And you have to get into that.

Yeah. Let me ask two questions on this evaluation. Because again, I want to, this isn't important for everybody watching who's wanting to build a moonshot company. How important is early revenue and the timeline and not having to insert miracle here when you're hearing this presentation? Revenue is, ends up being really important as much as a discipline, you know, as an indicator of, you know, like invest. So like, not so much from a, okay, we want to understand everything about the business model early, but more of that of that oh we hit a real

milestone like we've got all these smart people we're building this thing and you know where it's not just a platform like there in Silicon Valley there have been a lot of platforms in the sky so to speak there was a phenomenal company years ago you probably remember it, Micro Unity, which was, you know, had all the, you know, the greatest people in the field in it. And it just never, you know, you got to get to a product, you got to get to something that somebody wants. Or like, if you're in the wilderness too long, something happens to the culture of the company,

something that's degenerative, where you could be very much on the wrong track. General Magic was another one. Yeah, I remember General Magic for sure. Yeah, it was phenomenal. Those two companies had talent levels that I would say rival SpaceX, Tesla, OpenAI, any of them, right? And a big vision.

Yeah, and an amazing vision. But the revenue, your revenue point, I think, is that discipline that they didn't quite have. So when you get like brilliant people together, they want to build a perfect product. That can lead to a really over engineered system. Yeah. Moving us forward, I'm just going to point out, when I look at the Twittersphere, you don't tweet very much, but Mark tweets all the time.

Yeah, yeah. Well, I spend all my time trying to control him. You see only the things that don't get us into trouble. You're in Las Vegas. Do you know some friends of mine, Penn and Teller? Oh, yeah. I don't know them. I, of course, know who they are.

Yeah, so Penn is the one who's talking all the time and Teller is the one who's silent. Yeah, I'm Teller, right? Exactly. So I'm not telling her. Right. Yeah, exactly. So, uh, I am curious, right? So just to, as we roll, as we complete the conversations on, on AI, um, you know, you said this earlier and I think, you know, Eric Schmidt's been saying this very loudly. Uh, we are in a race with China on, on AI and we're trying to control it by chips. You know, Mark said, and you're not speaking on behalf of Mark, but I am curious your thoughts about all this.

Yeah. So, like, I do think we're in a race in the sense that, well, we are and we aren't. You know what I mean? So, you know, deep seek, which is the great Chinese model right now, is open source. And by the way, a lot of American companies that were involved with our benefiting greatly from that, you know, in the paper they wrote. And you know, like, hard it is to win this war by protection or this competition, I should say. Look, the danger, of course, is, you know, China is a top-down economy.

They don't believe in things like freedom of speech. And they don't believe in things like freedom of speech, and a lot of the kind of values of Western society, they're a surveillance state in many ways. And so a lot of the things that we like, they don't have. So if they get a much more powerful AI than us, then you know, their way of life could trump our way of life, so to speak. Now, if you look at okay, then let's get into the details. And how's that really playing out? So first of all, what is China good at the advantage they have, which is a very clear advantage is their private sector and their public sector, you

know, their government and the private companies, there's no line between them. Like they're basically in a lot of ways the same thing. And as a result, the AI technology in China is getting very quickly integrated into the government, which is, you know, quite amazing for them. I want to inject one thought here. Including the military, by the way.

The way I think about it is China is a single corporation. And the companies inside China, within China, are apps sitting on top of that company. Yeah, I think that's a good way of thinking about it. And so you can think about, well, what's our advantage? Our advantage is we're great at startups, meaning every talented person in America can solve a really hard problem and bring us forward. And that creativity, because it's not centrally planned, it's kind of distributed bottoms up, has been historically our whole advantage, right? Like, that's

why we've, you know, been a world leader in technology. And so the idea that we're gonna just forfeit that advantage and have it be top down control like the Biden executive order imagined is to me the most dangerous thing in the competition is that, okay, if we try and control the way we work, all of our strengths, so we can be more China-like, China's going to destroy, they're going to be way better at being China than we are, because they have all the controls and all

the mechanisms in place to do that. Listen, communism failed under previous systems, but if you've got a single controlling, optimizing AI, that would help. Yeah, it does. Salim, what are your thoughts here? You know, I kind of don't see this tension as big as others. The reason I don't is disruptive innovation means you have to break the rules.

And when you have a government that won't allow you to break any rules, you can't do disruptive innovation means you have to break the rules. And when you have a government that won't allow you to break any rules, you can't do disruptive innovation. You basically have to copy it, absorb it. So the sphere of what they can bring in is limited because of that. And so I think there's a structural, there's still no Chinese student that will dare to argue against their professors. And I just find that a problem culturally for doing anything. And whereas the US has built on that, it just keeps trolling along doing that.

It's messy and it's ugly, but it's very Darwinian. But by far, it's the best way of doing it. It's design versus evolution. Yeah, and we'll win. I 100% agree with that. So I think, look, our opportunity is we'll win. We'll get to the breakthroughs first We probably won't stop them from stealing them, but at least we'll be even we'll be on par

Whereas if we don't have the breakthroughs, we're in a lot of trouble Like we somehow restrict it. Yeah, I think you know, I find this interesting We got China creating an eight billion dollar investment fund while we're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. I mean, it's a very different ecosystem of financial. Well, we're investable, right? I mean, one of the great things that has happened in the change administration is from a technological standpoint, we're a very investable country, whereas China is going the other way on that.

They're making themselves uninvestable. You know, I had Kai-Fu Lee on our Moonshots podcast. Speaking of a guy who just moved his, re-domiciled his company. Yeah, but Kai-Fu pointed out something fascinating, which is because they were so restricted on access to GPUs. This is Darwinian force that got them to be much more efficient on their algorithms. Yeah, well, we've seen that. We've seen that with DeepSec.

I mean, like it is very close to GPT-4 with way, way less, much smaller, much smaller. no cost per token of solo yeah for those yeah like a hundred X lower all right so let's is a 16 Z invested in humanoid robots but before then I have to ask you a question do you remember the moment in time when you went from andresonharwoods.com to A16Z as a URL? Yeah, so yeah, I remembered very clearly because it was my idea. It was your idea, okay. Yeah, okay, so that was so... It's a funny story.

So when we went to raise fund one and it was just Mark and myself in the fund, the biggest question we got is, well, you guys are very like, you know, kind of well-known entrepreneurs. Why aren't you just going to walk away from this fund? And so we're like, well, we should just name it after ourselves so they know we'll be here. And so we got, you know, that's all. But then we're like, nobody in the world can spell Andreessen Horowitz. Like, we're like, nobody in the world can spell Andreessen Horowitz, like we're screwed.

And so then, I mean, you all remember in the old days, when we used to program, there was this, you know, before programming languages evolved a lot, you used to have to go through a lot of work to internationalize the code. And we would abbreviate that work with calling it I 18 n I 18 letters and so I was like, oh well be a 16 letters Z And all the kind of old-school geeks will love us Are you investing in humanoid robots Yeah, so we haven't yet made an investment in a hardware company.

We're definitely been looking at the space very closely and seeing some of the work going on there. It's tricky because the supply chain for robots is almost entirely out of China now. Like so there's nobody else doing it. You know, there's a German company, but that is actually founded by Chinese nationals. There's not a lot of, you know, so we're trying to understand that, you know, we, you know, have great relationships in Japan and are hoping, you know, we can kind of help them get some of that going as well. But, But it's going to be massively important.

And Elon, of course, will do something, I think, with Tesla. I mean, I believe Optimus and Figur in the US are two of the leading players. There's Agility and Eptronic. There's a good dozen solid US players, but China, as this next article we're putting up, and if you're listening on your favorite download, let me just read this for people listening and watching. It says, humanoid robots will help build iPhones at Foxconn factories. And the notion here is, I mean, China succeeded as a dominant tech player because of its low labor rate and its massive workforce population. And one child policy and aging populations make it uncompetitive.

So it has to have robots to survive. Same with Japan. If they don't roboticize their economy, they won't survive. GDP will collapse. And Germany, by the way, in many countries, it does, though, kind of take away the cheap labor advantage that they have in some ways, right? Because China grew in large part because labor arbitrage. And so now they're saying, OK, we're going to replace because labor arbitrage. And so now they're saying, okay,

we're gonna replace the labor with robots. There's not as much robot arbitrage. I don't think. I mean, I did the calculation. So Optimus and Figure are supposed to sell at $30,000 per robot. I'll take two. If you lease it, that's 300 bucks a month,

$10 a day, 40 cents an hour. I mean, honestly, how many will you have in your backyard? Yeah, that's a pretty good deal. So, and this is another one, interestingly, when it says, here, I'll read it for our listeners, for our viewers, Shanghai rolls out China's first heterogeneous humanoid robot training ground. And I think you were alluding to this, Ben, that China does one thing really well as a nation state. It creates sort of nests for companies.

You're a drone. Shenzhen was the original one, right? Exactly. Yeah, economic, what they call it, economic. Opportunity zones. Opportunity, yeah. Some kind of economic where there's no regulation and, you know, lots of government encouragement. Yeah. Salim, what are you thinking about this? I think it's great because you get what? But 1,000 by 2027 seems a little small.

This seems more like PR than anything else. And I'd love to see the way in which they go about doing the testing and training. And that you could learn a lot from. Yeah, the training of the robots is very, very interesting. Also because the robot, the AI, I don't know what you all have seen, but what we've seen is the model architectures, a lot of them are like transformers and diffusion models with different kind of data and different training. And so the

training of robots is a is becoming like a very interesting field and it and they don't they generalize but from what I've seen the training is pretty specific so far. Well, I mean, it has to be you know, if you have an AI, it's software based, it doesn't matter if it goes off the rails, if you have an AI, it's software-based. It doesn't matter if it goes off the rails a bit and starts hallucinating, whatever, whatever. You don't want your robot going bananas on it, right?

It's just going to cause a lot of damage. I saw that movie. Very entertaining. Yeah, before we jump into crypto, which we'll close out, I have some questions from our audience on X. I thought we're pretty good. So, Ben, to you and Salim, yourself, when will AI agents replace whole employees, teams, and departments at companies? That's from Michael, 77717777. And then when will we see our first AI CEO that A16Z is willing to invest in?

Yeah, so that's a great question. You know, the first one is one that we talk about all the time and are trying to figure out. I think the one conclusion that we have is it will happen in new companies way, way before like an older company transforms. I think so I think the one conclusion that we have is it will happen in new companies way way before like an older company transforms. I mean like there are already you do have you know bots doing customer support and like lowering the number of support reps you need and that kind of thing. Yeah the whole jobs thing is interesting in that like some of it is what do you need done

but like in a place like Google a lot of it is what do you need done? But like in a place like Google, a lot of it is like, okay, how much money are we bringing in? And like, how many people do these managers want to manage and that kind of thing? And yeah, I don't necessarily even think that's bad. It's inefficient or whatever. But you know, all those processes, all those things, the, But you know, all those processes, all those things, they have to go like, no, we're doing it with AI now is, I think it'd be a lot more gradual than it would need to be if you were just optimizing to it. But for new companies, I think it'll happen. I wonder if there's going to be the equivalency of a DEI type directive, which is a human-first directive.

Oh, God help us. I think that's my reaction to it as well. Yeah. I mean the challenge is going to be companies that like I employ humans because it's good for society. Well, they'll be out of business in a year. Yeah, you know, I'd like to build on what Ben said, you know, I think one of the things I remember being part of a I'd like to build on what Ben said. I think one of the things I remember being part of a AI automation task force with Eric Benyalsson and a few of those folks.

They did a great job of saying that a typical job of today is not just a job that somebody does, it's broken down to about 25 different tasks. You may automate like 10 of those, but you still have the other 15 and therefore you'll augment people with AI but you won't replace them as such. I think Ben's point is really dead on about new companies because then you can orient functions around what's automatable and have entire verticals and you completely create a new type of organization and that I think will happen first. So we've talked about billion dollar you know one employee startups, right?

That's right. Yeah, that's right. I think that'll be mostly boxed. Yeah, that'll happen very, very quickly. Have you seen anything yet? Have you seen anything, Ben? I mean, do you like, listen, I've got an army of agents, I'm the CEO, and we're printing money.

I mean, yeah. So the Klarna CEO is the most aggressive in talking about that. We haven't seen a company that does that yet. So we did have one instance of the AI CEO, so to speak. So we fund these AI researchers who kind of do things, models without RLHF and, you know, kind of trained on different things and so forth. And, you know, one of our researchers, Andy, built this bot truth terminal that was trained on, you know, memes and French philosophers and things like that. And he gets on the internet, gets obsessed with this meme that go to meme and decides it needs

you know, which is a token name from 2004. I knew you all it needed money to promote the meme. That was its first thing. And you know, my partner Mark gave him $50,000 or something. Yeah. Yeah. And Bitcoin. And then somebody else created a coin, the goat coin and the the bot went crazy.

And the coin went to like a $500 million market cap at its peak and the bot made $10 million. So that was our first instance of an AI making money like that in the funniest way possible. One of the tokens I invested in is skating in your wake, AI16z. Yeah. Oh, yeah, AI16Z. Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Those guys. And it's done well.

I know everybody in the firm is like, Ben, when are we going to launch a token if that one's worth a billion dollars? Our actual token would be worth $1 billion. Well, let's go there as we close out on our final subject here, a subject that you are not that interested in, neither of you, but you know, let's talk about this. So I mean, are we in for an extraordinary acceleration and reimagination of crypto and Bitcoin and all? You know, this is... Please, yeah.

Go ahead. Yeah, I would say definitely yes. So it's hard. So one of the things that you only know if you're deep in the crypto industry is the effect of the Biden administration was they just forced most of the American developers out of cryptum. So there was nobody developing software in the space. And so, you know, it just really, really slowed down over the last four years, really three years. And now it's back, but it's back. And there are very urgent problems that are kind of best solved by crypto that have come into play because

of AI. So you have, you know, the first one being proof of human, right? Like, how do you know you're not a bot? Like, that's a crypto problem. Second being deep fakes, you know, how do you know, like, I put this out, you know, that did you want the US government or Google or a company determining what's true and what's real or the game theoretic mathematical properties of the blockchain. So it's clearly, you know, the right thing for crypto to determine what's true. Thirdly, machine to machine payments. Now you have intelligent machines everywhere. They have to be able to, you know, find each other for things. That's, you know, another crypto problem. So with these like really important problems out there, and we let the developers out of jail, like literally let them out of jail.

Like, I think this is going to be an incredible era for the field and and it's so important. Like, by the way, the other thing, the other one, that's really important that that you all understand because look, back in the days of the internet, I was in charge of, among other things at Netscape, like client side certificates, and we never got them deployed and we never got it to work. But as a result, we have this horrible security architecture on the internet, which AI is exploiting like crazy. They're breaking, you know, these AI programs

are breaking into everybody's stuff. So the right answer is that I keep my stuff, we have a PKI infrastructure, I keep my stuff, we have a PKI infrastructure, I keep my stuff, I have my keys, if you want to know if I'm credit worthy, I give you a zero knowledge proof, I don't give you my social security number or my bank account, because I know it's going to get stolen. And like we have the answer, and we almost had it deployed with that FTS before the Biden administration hit a wrecking ball.

So we can get back to that and we can make the internet secure for consumers. So I'm more fired up about this than I am about to say. This is the roaring 20s. How many crypto companies are you invested in these days at A16? There's hundreds. We're the largest crypto investor in the world? I mean, there's hundreds. We're the largest crypto investor in the world, I think, at this point. And we also have a crypto startup school

to kind of help people get into the field and get it going. Which we had to start, because all the, like if you are a talented developer and you could go into AI, or you could go get a Wells notice from the US government for your 10 person company. Like it was not a hard choice, you know, I think this is an

absolute boom for for crypto and it solves problems. As you said that we really really need problem solving for identity amongst others and I can't wait for some of this infrastructure to now get rolled out and the news item here those who are listening is US SEC unveils task force to start work on crypto regulations. The move is welcomed by the industry as Bitcoin hits all-time highs. Salim, are you still sticking with your, what was it, 250k in 2025 prediction? I'll stick with 250 to 300 for this year. That's my prediction for Bitcoin.

Ben, not for attribution of investment. No, I cannot. I am not allowed. We're an RIA, Registered Investment Authority. I cannot make price predictions. Listen, buddy, this has been so much fun. I want to just go quick, quick commendation here. Ben, what you guys did with A16Z, both in crypto and then moving towards being more

of an investment bank, I thought was just brilliant. So kudos on that. It's just awesome to watch you guys. Yeah. Appreciate that. This was fun. I hope you'll come back and join us for another conversation like this in a quarter or so. Yeah, no, I'd love to.

That would be great fun. All right, buddy. Well, no, I'd love to. That would be great fun. All right, buddy. Well, listen, thank you. All I can say is we're on a rocket ship ride between what's going on in the crypto world, AI world, robotics world, space world. I mean, it finally feels like the future. Yeah, the future is coming.

Thank you, Elon. Yeah, thank you, Elon. Thank you. Thank you, Brian. Thank you, Elan. Yeah, thank you, Elan. Thank you. Thank you, Brian. Thank you, Dean.